According to the ONS the number of people in employment in the 3 months to the end of November 2013 rose by 280,000. That is 3,000 extra jobs every single day. Absolutely incredible.
A 280K increase is just short of a 1% increase in the numbers employed over that period as this number has recently gone over 30m for the first time. Either productivity is still falling or the SWIFT forecast of 0.4% is well out. My understanding is that there are the first signs of an increase in productivity so the growth should be well above 0.4%.
I do not think this rate of job creation can continue but there are good prospects of a gradually falling unemployment rate for the year ahead. I am more confident than ever about my forecast of modest increases in the base rate by the end of this year.
According to the ONS the number of people in employment in the 3 months to the end of November 2013 rose by 280,000. That is 3,000 extra jobs every single day. Absolutely incredible.
A 280K increase is just short of a 1% increase in the numbers employed over that period as this number has recently gone over 30m for the first time. Either productivity is still falling or the SWIFT forecast of 0.4% is well out. My understanding is that there are the first signs of an increase in productivity so the growth should be well above 0.4%.
I do not think this rate of job creation can continue but there are good prospects of a gradually falling unemployment rate for the year ahead. I am more confident than ever about my forecast of modest increases in the base rate by the end of this year.
Do the stats say it's locals picking up the jobs or immigrants ? If it's locals that's really good news as it's a double whammy on jobs and govt spending.
Someone last night mentioned he oddschecker advert which I have just seen. A friend of mine used to work at the Hong Kong Jockey Club. They have a monopoly on gambling in Hong Kong, and the small print says anyone found betting elsewhere can be fined up to £30,000 and face nine months in prison!
You can go to prison for shopping about for value!
Hence they offer none whatsoever and clean up! Their first goalscorer prices make William Hills 80/1 about West Ham qualifying last nightlook generous
CCHQ Press Office@CCHQPress21 secs BBC Presenter referring to record fall in Unemployment: "A lot of people will be worried these figures are so good" #CantMakeItUp
Maybe he's worried that such a huge figure will turn out, later, to be false, as so many statistics (like crime) have turned out to be.
CCHQ Press Office@CCHQPress21 secs BBC Presenter referring to record fall in Unemployment: "A lot of people will be worried these figures are so good" #CantMakeItUp
Maybe he's worried that such a huge figure will turn out, later, to be false, as so many statistics (like crime) have turned out to be.
Ukip now panicking about the economic upturn ?
Why do keep writing such a pile of rubbish?
You so have a habit of rubbishing every set of figures that come out ...
Someone last night mentioned he oddschecker advert which I have just seen. A friend of mine used to work at the Hong Kong Jockey Club. They have a monopoly on gambling in Hong Kong, and the small print says anyone found betting elsewhere can be fined up to £30,000 and face nine months in prison!
You can go to prison for shopping about for value!
Hence they offer none whatsoever and clean up! Their first goalscorer prices make William Hills 80/1 about West Ham qualifying last nightlook generous
CCHQ Press Office@CCHQPress21 secs BBC Presenter referring to record fall in Unemployment: "A lot of people will be worried these figures are so good" #CantMakeItUp
Maybe he's worried that such a huge figure will turn out, later, to be false, as so many statistics (like crime) have turned out to be.
Ukip now panicking about the economic upturn ?
Why do keep writing such a pile of rubbish?
You are questioning the veracity of unemployment statistics on the day where there is another big fall in unemployment - aka - good news.
I can't work out whether it was sour grapes or just the usual Ukip conspiracy theory.
Not sure this month's psbr figures are as good....but I can't make head nor tail of the ONS stats. I need Avery's yellow tables.
Morning, John
ONS have reordered the PSF figures this month, so the December figure is hidden in the middle rather than placed upfront.
Don't fear though: it is good news!
Borrowing in December 2013 was £2.1 bn below the level of December 2012 (excluding banking bailouts and the main one off cash flows). Dec 2012 was £14.2 bn for the month and Dec 2013 £12.1 bn.
If you set aside all the exclusions and look at the Government's net cash requirement (which drives actual borrowing through the Debt Management Office) then the picture is even rosier:
The central government net cash requirement for the year to date 2013/14 was £63.4 billion, £25.5 billion lower than the same period in 2012/13, when it was £88.9 billion.
The biggest month of the year for public sector finances is January, which will be reported next month. Payments due for self assessed income tax and corporation tax co-incide to make January the highest month of the year for tax receipts. All is looking at worst, on target for OBR's December EFO forecast for borrowing this f/y and , more probably, a better outcome than OBR's most up to date forecast.
St. George not only slays dragons, he kills deficits too.
CCHQ Press Office@CCHQPress21 secs BBC Presenter referring to record fall in Unemployment: "A lot of people will be worried these figures are so good" #CantMakeItUp
Maybe he's worried that such a huge figure will turn out, later, to be false, as so many statistics (like crime) have turned out to be.
Ukip now panicking about the economic upturn ?
Why do keep writing such a pile of rubbish?
You are questioning the veracity of unemployment statistics on the day where there is another big fall in unemployment - aka - good news.
I can't work out whether it was sour grapes or just the usual Ukip conspiracy theory.
If you look at the conversation you will see i was replying to an earlier post on a BBC presenters response. Do dry up an piss your pants in another corner!
According to the ONS the number of people in employment in the 3 months to the end of November 2013 rose by 280,000. That is 3,000 extra jobs every single day. Absolutely incredible.
A 280K increase is just short of a 1% increase in the numbers employed over that period as this number has recently gone over 30m for the first time. Either productivity is still falling or the SWIFT forecast of 0.4% is well out. My understanding is that there are the first signs of an increase in productivity so the growth should be well above 0.4%.
I do not think this rate of job creation can continue but there are good prospects of a gradually falling unemployment rate for the year ahead. I am more confident than ever about my forecast of modest increases in the base rate by the end of this year.
Do the stats say it's locals picking up the jobs or immigrants ? If it's locals that's really good news as it's a double whammy on jobs and govt spending.
I can't see it in this release but in previous releases it was pointed out that something like 90% of the new jobs were going to UK citizens. There has been a slight concern until now that a very large increase in employment (up 450K in the year) was only being modestly reflected in the reduction in the claimant counts but these latest figures bring them much more back in line.
The last stats I saw suggested there had been at least a pause in the reduction of those employed in the public sector. It will be interesting to see where this growth is coming from.
Given the higher benefits now available to those in work the impact on public spending is not as positive as it might once have been but it should still be a move in the right direction.
Fastest growing economy in the OECD. Most uprated growth forecasts by the IMF. Fastest growing employment numbers / fastest falling unemployment. ……and Labour well ahead in the polls. WTF?
This country will thoroughly deserve the shit sandwich it chooses for itself in 2015 if things stay as they are.
I do not think this rate of job creation can continue but there are good prospects of a gradually falling unemployment rate for the year ahead. I am more confident than ever about my forecast of modest increases in the base rate by the end of this year.
Given that inflation remains low, I wouldn't expect the BoE to change course.
I do not think this rate of job creation can continue but there are good prospects of a gradually falling unemployment rate for the year ahead. I am more confident than ever about my forecast of modest increases in the base rate by the end of this year.
Given that inflation remains low, I wouldn't expect the BoE to change course.
CCHQ Press Office@CCHQPress21 secs BBC Presenter referring to record fall in Unemployment: "A lot of people will be worried these figures are so good" #CantMakeItUp
Maybe he's worried that such a huge figure will turn out, later, to be false, as so many statistics (like crime) have turned out to be.
Ukip now panicking about the economic upturn ?
Why do keep writing such a pile of rubbish?
You are questioning the veracity of unemployment statistics on the day where there is another big fall in unemployment - aka - good news.
I can't work out whether it was sour grapes or just the usual Ukip conspiracy theory.
If you look at the conversation you will see i was replying to an earlier post on a BBC presenters response. Do dry up an piss your pants in another corner!
I reckon the issue is whether he was clumsy in manner or approach, or if he was taking advantage of his position.
That would be the issue in a criminal case deciding on a charge of sexual harassment.
However, in either case, it is clear that his actions upset the women concerned, and so it reflects badly on him not to offer an apology for his actions. There is a level of social censure that is appropriate when a criminal conviction is not. You wouldn't expect him to be invited to many social occasions, for example.
Whether the Lib Dems, as an organisation, can force him to behave in the manner befitting an honourable gentleman, or can force him out of the party if he fails to meet their behavioural standards, is a slightly different matter. There is a difference between society, as a series of individual moral decisions, judging his actions sufficient to make him persona non grata, and an organisation putting a sort of official seal on such a judgement.
Erm...how about: Then the picture is very marginally less of a total clusterfu<k than that which the coalition government inherited.
We've still got a monster deficit and need quite a few years to even level off the total debt. Don't get me wrong, I think Ozzy's doing a bang up job overall, but this country still has a loooooooong way to go before our economy is healthily rebalanced and the debt dynamics are sustainable.
''This country will thoroughly deserve the shit sandwich it chooses for itself in 2015 if things stay as they are.''
There's something in this. I've come the the conclusion this country cannot abide good news. So many people revel in hatred of the government of one sort or another.
This impressive economic performance is nowhere on the front pages, even the right wing ones.
Not sure this month's psbr figures are as good....but I can't make head nor tail of the ONS stats. I need Avery's yellow tables.
Morning, John
ONS have reordered the PSF figures this month, so the December figure is hidden in the middle rather than placed upfront.
Don't fear though: it is good news!
Borrowing in December 2013 was £2.1 bn below the level of December 2012 (excluding banking bailouts and the main one off cash flows). Dec 2012 was £14.2 bn for the month and Dec 2013 £12.1 bn.
If you set aside all the exclusions and look at the Government's net cash requirement (which drives actual borrowing through the Debt Management Office) then the picture is even rosier:
The central government net cash requirement for the year to date 2013/14 was £63.4 billion, £25.5 billion lower than the same period in 2012/13, when it was £88.9 billion.
The biggest month of the year for public sector finances is January, which will be reported next month. Payments due for self assessed income tax and corporation tax co-incide to make January the highest month of the year for tax receipts. All is looking at worst, on target for OBR's December EFO forecast for borrowing this f/y and , more probably, a better outcome than OBR are predicting.
St. George not only slays dragons, he kills deficits too.
Mr Pole don't spoil some good unemployment figures with long posts on nothing. Sit back, enjoy a coffee and enjoy the sun while it's shining or if you can't do that go and break up a bank just for the fun of it.
Hi from the Ibis Seoul - nice place, a snip at £75/night.
Interestingly, the figures show that older people are much more inclined to think that Rennard should go - by a 20-point margin (vs 3-6 for other population groups). It's always tempting to think up reasons AFTER one knows the figures, but perhaps this reflects a more censorious view of dodgy sexual behaviour among the older generation, with young people saying "oh, just give him a slap"? The fact that the Tories, who get most voters among the elderly, are the only group opposed to Rennard going, is quite odd - even post hoc I can't really work out a theory for that.
I do not think this rate of job creation can continue but there are good prospects of a gradually falling unemployment rate for the year ahead. I am more confident than ever about my forecast of modest increases in the base rate by the end of this year.
Given that inflation remains low, I wouldn't expect the BoE to change course.
But they will not be changing course Richard, they will be acting on their forward guidance. It seems extremely likely the unemployment rate will now be below 7% by the summer. Given the slightly bubbly aspects of house prices in London and the south east there will be a risk of an increase in inflation taking off again if the MPC does not act.
The counter argument is that if the EZ continues to flirt with deflation or there is a continuing fall in commodity prices inflation may remain low. The IMF figures improving the global prospects suggests to me that the fall in commodities is going to run out at some point and the French and others are going to be screaming for some sort of QE by mid year.
I am still predicting a negative real rate, comfortably below the level of inflation but an increase in rates will be evidence that our economy is climbing off its sickbed, not evidence that things have gone wrong (except on the BBC of course).
“Today’s fall in overall unemployment is welcome. The Government should use this opportunity to tackle the unacceptably high levels of long-term unemployment and youth unemployment. More than 900,000 young people are unemployed and over 250,000 young people are long-term unemployed.
Fastest growing economy in the OECD. Most uprated growth forecasts by the IMF. Fastest growing employment numbers / fastest falling unemployment. ……and Labour well ahead in the polls. WTF?
This country will thoroughly deserve the shit sandwich it chooses for itself in 2015 if things stay as they are.
Because it's mid-term and these numbers are abstract to most people's experience. It's unfortunate that there is always a lag between economic numbers picking up and people actually feeling that a recession is over.
Not to worry though, because if this performance continues people should be feeling it by the end of the year, IMO.
It is a damaging national characteristic that we seem so reluctant to be positive.
'How are you? Mustn't grumble/not too bad/still alive and kicking.'
It is most damaging in our attitude to success. We seem finally (maybe post-Olympics) to be more comfortable with sporting heroics. We are not there yet as a nation on business / financial / political achievement.
“Today’s fall in overall unemployment is welcome. The Government should use this opportunity to tackle the unacceptably high levels of long-term unemployment and youth unemployment. More than 900,000 young people are unemployed and over 250,000 young people are long-term unemployed.
“Today’s fall in overall unemployment is welcome. The Government should use this opportunity to tackle the unacceptably high levels of long-term unemployment and youth unemployment. More than 900,000 young people are unemployed and over 250,000 young people are long-term unemployed.
desperation there. Ms Reeves forgets that there were long term unemployed in the 13 years of Blair bingeing and that her party imported people rather than get our own in to work.
@isam I'd sell the conservatives at ~ 23, quite a large range of no bet though for me which I think the bookies will fall into. ~ 15% or so I am guessing will be the opening 5/6 line at Paddy's
“Today’s fall in overall unemployment is welcome. The Government should use this opportunity to tackle the unacceptably high levels of long-term unemployment and youth unemployment. More than 900,000 young people are unemployed and over 250,000 young people are long-term unemployed.
Well it was over 1m young unemployed until very recently.
But this statement shows the extent of Labour's problem and the paucity of their thinking. The UK economy is creating jobs at the rate of 3K a day and the governments' priority should be to increase the rate of job creation? Absolutely not.
What they need to do is exactly what they are doing which is to facilitate and part fund the doubling of apprenticeships that we have seen and to improve training opportunities but public sector job creation is the last thing we need.
A Facebook campaign to get the classic 80s track ‘It’s Raining Men’ to the top of the charts has been deluged with support following a Ukip councillor claiming the legalisation of same-sex marriage was to blame for the recent floods.
Not sure why people are worried about unemployment falling below 7%. Inflation is exactly on target, why would the Bank raise interest rates and set us on a deflationary pathjust because unemployment has fallen below the level at which they said interest rates will be looked at.
I wonder if the messages from the tightening up of benefits and changes in the housing benefit etc are also playing a part in reducing these unemployment rates? Does anyone have any stats in this area to prove/disprove?
Not sure this month's psbr figures are as good....but I can't make head nor tail of the ONS stats. I need Avery's yellow tables.
Morning, John
ONS have reordered the PSF figures this month, so the December figure is hidden in the middle rather than placed upfront.
Don't fear though: it is good news!
Borrowing in December 2013 was £2.1 bn below the level of December 2012 (excluding banking bailouts and the main one off cash flows). Dec 2012 was £14.2 bn for the month and Dec 2013 £12.1 bn.
If you set aside all the exclusions and look at the Government's net cash requirement (which drives actual borrowing through the Debt Management Office) then the picture is even rosier:
The central government net cash requirement for the year to date 2013/14 was £63.4 billion, £25.5 billion lower than the same period in 2012/13, when it was £88.9 billion.
The biggest month of the year for public sector finances is January, which will be reported next month. Payments due for self assessed income tax and corporation tax co-incide to make January the highest month of the year for tax receipts. All is looking at worst, on target for OBR's December EFO forecast for borrowing this f/y and , more probably, a better outcome than OBR are predicting.
St. George not only slays dragons, he kills deficits too.
Mr Pole don't spoil some good unemployment figures with long posts on nothing. Sit back, enjoy a coffee and enjoy the sun while it's shining or if you can't do that go and break up a bank just for the fun of it.
Mr Brooke
I would have thought that a £25.4 bn cumulative drop in the amount of cash needed by the government to pay its bills this year would be a great cause for celebration in Warwickshire.
Remember we don't have a Leamington Spa und Stratford Sparkasse in the UK to plug holes in public and private finance.
Question: is this because of the cost, or because of the anachronistic nature of the Commonwealth? My view is that the Games' time has passed. It generates little enthusiasm in the UK (elsewhere? I don't know), and is a weak, watery shadow of the Olympics and World Championships.
Athlete 1: I won an Olympic medal! Athlete 2: I won a Commonwealth medal! Athlete 1: Whatever.
But they will not be changing course Richard, they will be acting on their forward guidance. It seems extremely likely the unemployment rate will now be below 7% by the summer. Given the slightly bubbly aspects of house prices in London and the south east there will be a risk of an increase in inflation taking off again if the MPC does not act.
The point about unemployment dropping to 7% was that that would be a trigger for possibly reviewing the rate, but not an automatic trigger for increasing it. Ultimately, it's the 2% inflation target which is the primary measure they'll be considering, and at the moment there's no sign of inflation increasing (in fact it's below target in the Eurozone and the US, with the IMF warning about possible deflation).
Of course things could change, but, pace Mr Pole, the good news in terms of growth has to be kept in context: it's steady recovery from a low base, not rampant growth which looks in danger of becoming over-heating.
Basically, both from the government's and the BoE's point of view, I'd have thought we were bang on course and it's steady as she goes.
Regarding the views of other parties about the LDs actions on Rennard. Partisan people may well support keeping Rennard in and vote that way in the research!
Afterall it just builds up the smell around the LDs. But personally I would want Rennard out on the grounds that he has offended so many females inside the party.
A Facebook campaign to get the classic 80s track ‘It’s Raining Men’ to the top of the charts has been deluged with support following a Ukip councillor claiming the legalisation of same-sex marriage was to blame for the recent floods.
Just shows how right Farage was to try and stop him, the susppend him for, talking about it in public as people would think his views represented UKIPs.
People don't need encouragement to misrepresent the party that all others fear most.
Even conservatives on here indulged in puerile jokes, forgetting that their party entertained this guy and his silly views without censure
I wonder if the messages from the tightening up of benefits and changes in the housing benefit etc are also playing a part in reducing these unemployment rates? Does anyone have any stats in this area to prove/disprove?
Incentives matter. If the government makes work a more rewarding option than a life of chavdom then more people will choose work. Reducing benefits and taxes on the low paid at the same time will always push more into work. And to give the disgusting, appalling, useless, lefty, bumpinching, wishywashy, tofu munching LibDems some minor credit - the increase in the personal tax allowance has been especially helpful to those in work but low pay. And I think this is really their baby more than Ozzy's.
For people not that interested in politics (The Wife), the Rennard story is confusing. On the one hand, he's not been found guilty in a court of law of anything, and given the high profile cases currently ongoing, I suppose some people can't understand what the fuss is about. Surely if he's "innocent", or at least not legally guilty, why does Clegg want him to apologise? On the other hand, some Lib Dem women have made some serious allegations against him, which the Lib Dem party have investigated and sort of cleared him, but also say that he should apologise for his unacceptable behaviour towards the women. Very confusing. I guess Rennard thinks that giving an apology implies his guilt, which, to be fair, is an understandable position if you believe you've done nothing wrong.
Not sure this month's psbr figures are as good....but I can't make head nor tail of the ONS stats. I need Avery's yellow tables.
Morning, John
ONS have reordered the PSF figures this month, so the December figure is hidden in the middle rather than placed upfront.
Don't fear though: it is good news!
If you set aside all the exclusions and look at the Government's net cash requirement (which drives actual borrowing through the Debt Management Office) then the picture is even rosier:
The central government net cash requirement for the year to date 2013/14 was £63.4 billion, £25.5 billion lower than the same period in 2012/13, when it was £88.9 billion.
outcome than OBR are predicting.
St. George not only slays dragons, he kills deficits too.
Mr Pole don't spoil some good unemployment figures with long posts on nothing. Sit back, enjoy a coffee and enjoy the sun while it's shining or if you can't do that go and break up a bank just for the fun of it.
Mr Brooke
I would have thought that a £25.4 bn cumulative drop in the amount of cash needed by the government to pay its bills this year would be a great cause for celebration in Warwickshire.
Remember we don't have a Leamington Spa und Stratford Sparkasse in the UK to plug holes in public and private finance.
Ah Mr Pole you just can't take advice. You should be celebrating a drop in unemployment.
As for your point on borrowing, well it's catch up. You're only highlighting what you didn't do a few years back and reminding us all how much we've had to pay for the privilege. We expect you to rein in spending it's what HMT's job is, but you appear to want a medal every time you get out of bed.
“Today’s fall in overall unemployment is welcome. The Government should use this opportunity to tackle the unacceptably high levels of long-term unemployment and youth unemployment. More than 900,000 young people are unemployed and over 250,000 young people are long-term unemployed.
Reeves was just on the BBC talking about Labour's proposed "Compulsory Jobs Guarantee" for the long-term unemployed.
Can someone tell me:
1) Where these jobs will come from; 2) How will people be fitted with the best jobs; 3) How will this not impact on other groups of employees.
Of course, if Labour had sorted out the education system and not encouraged grade inflation (*), then perhaps many youngsters would be better suited for the wonderful world of work ...
Erm...how about: Then the picture is very marginally less of a total clusterfu
Of course, Patrick.
But I see my job on PB to remain upbeat in order to keep our Midlands depressives from self-harming.
I see it all as being part of the Big Society.
arf.
Mr Pole we industrious people in the Midlands are well used to having to stand on our own two feet since the southern barrow boys contribute little to our prosperity. Having you chaps flap about that you've done something once in a while is a bit like having a swarm of insects buzzing round your head when you're trying to repair a major piece of machinery.
But they will not be changing course Richard, they will be acting on their forward guidance. It seems extremely likely the unemployment rate will now be below 7% by the summer. Given the slightly bubbly aspects of house prices in London and the south east there will be a risk of an increase in inflation taking off again if the MPC does not act.
The point about unemployment dropping to 7% was that that would be a trigger for possibly reviewing the rate, but not an automatic trigger for increasing it. Ultimately, it's the 2% inflation target which is the primary measure they'll be considering, and at the moment there's no sign of inflation increasing (in fact it's below target in the Eurozone and the US, with the IMF warning about possible deflation).
Of course things could change, but, pace Mr Pole, the good news in terms of growth has to be kept in context: it's steady recovery from a low base, not rampant growth which looks in danger of becoming over-heating.
Basically, both from the government's and the BoE's point of view, I'd have thought we were bang on course and it's steady as she goes.
Richard
The 7% unemployment rate is one of three "thresholds" at which the BoE will "start to consider" changing interest rates. There is no automatic trigger and the BoE have been going to great lengths over recent weeks to emphasise that they will look at the overall position of the economy when making any decision on raising rates.
In particular, all the talk is over the need for UK productivity to recover and for the Eurozone's economy to pick up to the extent that it boosts UK exports, before interest rates can rise.
I think Mark Carney is looking for someone like compouter to help him move the goalposts on the Threadneedle Street playing fields.
As you rightly point out all current inflation expectations are subdued and the risk of deflation is currently perceived to be higher than rampant inflation.
Everything points to a soft shoe shuffle on interest rates coming up from the Old Lady.
But they will not be changing course Richard, they will be acting on their forward guidance. It seems extremely likely the unemployment rate will now be below 7% by the summer. Given the slightly bubbly aspects of house prices in London and the south east there will be a risk of an increase in inflation taking off again if the MPC does not act.
The point about unemployment dropping to 7% was that that would be a trigger for possibly reviewing the rate, but not an automatic trigger for increasing it. Ultimately, it's the 2% inflation target which is the primary measure they'll be considering, and at the moment there's no sign of inflation increasing (in fact it's below target in the Eurozone and the US, with the IMF warning about possible deflation).
Of course things could change, but, pace Mr Pole, the good news in terms of growth has to be kept in context: it's steady recovery from a low base, not rampant growth which looks in danger of becoming over-heating.
Basically, both from the government's and the BoE's point of view, I'd have thought we were bang on course and it's steady as she goes.
I would agree with much of that Richard but steady as she goes means a gradual removal of the extraordinary measures that have been in place since 2008 to keep the economy alive after a horrific car crash by an incompetent driver. So we have seen the ending of the special arrangements for the banks, the winding up of QE, and a willingness to contemplate bolder and necessary cuts in public spending attacking the structural deficit.
The next step to normality is to restore real interest rates. This will take a considerable time, probably 3 or 4 more years of modest recovery, maybe more.
But keeping base rates at 0.5% is not cost free, it is a major distortion in our economy and robs the prudent and the saver. It encourages excessive investment in the housing market reducing affordability. It makes the pension deficits of those companies and the public sector with final salary pension entitlements almost unmanageable. It overly encourages consumption and the sucking in of imports.
I think by the end of this year it will be time to show that the economy is no longer in intensive care and to start to carve out a path to normality. The world will not end if interest rates climb to the dizzy heights of 1%.
A Facebook campaign to get the classic 80s track ‘It’s Raining Men’ to the top of the charts has been deluged with support following a Ukip councillor claiming the legalisation of same-sex marriage was to blame for the recent floods.
Just shows how right Farage was to try and stop him, the susppend him for, talking about it in public as people would think his views represented UKIPs.
People don't need encouragement to misrepresent the party that all others fear most.
Even conservatives on here indulged in puerile jokes, forgetting that their party entertained this guy and his silly views without censure
In the current climate of old men being charged for sexual offences from many years ago, I can understand why Lord Rennard doesn't want to be seen admitting anything lest he be categorised with those high profile celebrities who are charged with more serious offences
But they will not be changing course Richard, they will be acting on their forward guidance. It seems extremely likely the unemployment rate will now be below 7% by the summer. Given the slightly bubbly aspects of house prices in London and the south east there will be a risk of an increase in inflation taking off again if the MPC does not act.
The point about unemployment dropping to 7% was that that would be a trigger for possibly reviewing the rate, but not an automatic trigger for increasing it. Ultimately, it's the 2% inflation target which is the primary measure they'll be considering, and at the moment there's no sign of inflation increasing (in fact it's below target in the Eurozone and the US, with the IMF warning about possible deflation).
Of course things could change, but, pace Mr Pole, the good news in terms of growth has to be kept in context: it's steady recovery from a low base, not rampant growth which looks in danger of becoming over-heating.
Basically, both from the government's and the BoE's point of view, I'd have thought we were bang on course and it's steady as she goes.
I would agree with much of that Richard but steady as she goes means a gradual removal of the extraordinary measures that have been in place since 2008 to keep the economy alive after a horrific car crash by an incompetent driver. So we have seen the ending of the special arrangements for the banks, the winding up of QE, and a willingness to contemplate bolder and necessary cuts in public spending attacking the structural deficit.
The next step to normality is to restore real interest rates. This will take a considerable time, probably 3 or 4 more years of modest recovery, maybe more.
But keeping base rates at 0.5% is not cost free, it is a major distortion in our economy and robs the prudent and the saver. It encourages excessive investment in the housing market reducing affordability. It makes the pension deficits of those companies and the public sector with final salary pension entitlements almost unmanageable. It overly encourages consumption and the sucking in of imports.
I think by the end of this year it will be time to show that the economy is no longer in intensive care and to start to carve out a path to normality. The world will not end if interest rates climb to the dizzy heights of 1%.
A Facebook campaign to get the classic 80s track ‘It’s Raining Men’ to the top of the charts has been deluged with support following a Ukip councillor claiming the legalisation of same-sex marriage was to blame for the recent floods.
Just shows how right Farage was to try and stop him, the susppend him for, talking about it in public as people would think his views represented UKIPs.
People don't need encouragement to misrepresent the party that all others fear most.
Even conservatives on here indulged in puerile jokes, forgetting that their party entertained this guy and his silly views without censure
A Facebook campaign to get the classic 80s track ‘It’s Raining Men’ to the top of the charts has been deluged with support following a Ukip councillor claiming the legalisation of same-sex marriage was to blame for the recent floods.
Just shows how right Farage was to try and stop him, the susppend him for, talking about it in public as people would think his views represented UKIPs.
People don't need encouragement to misrepresent the party that all others fear most.
Even conservatives on here indulged in puerile jokes, forgetting that their party entertained this guy and his silly views without censure
A Facebook campaign to get the classic 80s track ‘It’s Raining Men’ to the top of the charts has been deluged with support following a Ukip councillor claiming the legalisation of same-sex marriage was to blame for the recent floods.
Just shows how right Farage was to try and stop him, the susppend him for, talking about it in public as people would think his views represented UKIPs.
People don't need encouragement to misrepresent the party that all others fear most.
Even conservatives on here indulged in puerile jokes, forgetting that their party entertained this guy and his silly views without censure
Tell me, why are you against gay marriage?
It causes bad weather
A puerile answer from someone who's willing to restrict rights from a subsection of society for no f'ing reason.
Or is is just that you're mirroring UKIP's position with no intellectual thought?
Those are stunningly good employment numbers. Unemployment is now 150,000 below the level of May 2010, and the rate is now 0.6% below the rate it was then,
IMHO Rennard is definitely more sinned against than sinning. The enquiry found that the allegations against him (which seem pretty minor in the scheme of things) were unproven, He hasn't been given a copy of the report, so he has no idea what he's supposed to apologise for. His counsel has advised him not to give an apology. I see no reason why he ought to apologise, other than he's expected to take one for the team.
A Facebook campaign to get the classic 80s track ‘It’s Raining Men’ to the top of the charts has been deluged with support following a Ukip councillor claiming the legalisation of same-sex marriage was to blame for the recent floods.
Just shows how right Farage was to try and stop him, the susppend him for, talking about it in public as people would think his views represented UKIPs.
People don't need encouragement to misrepresent the party that all others fear most.
Even conservatives on here indulged in puerile jokes, forgetting that their party entertained this guy and his silly views without censure
A Facebook campaign to get the classic 80s track ‘It’s Raining Men’ to the top of the charts has been deluged with support following a Ukip councillor claiming the legalisation of same-sex marriage was to blame for the recent floods.
Just shows how right Farage was to try and stop him, the susppend him for, talking about it in public as people would think his views represented UKIPs.
People don't need encouragement to misrepresent the party that all others fear most.
Even conservatives on here indulged in puerile jokes, forgetting that their party entertained this guy and his silly views without censure
Tell me, why are you against gay marriage?
It causes bad weather
A puerile answer from someone who's willing to restrict rights from a subsection of society for no f'ing reason.
Or is is just that you're mirroring UKIP's position with no intellectual thought?
What an absolute nause you are
I have said why I think what I think at great length on this site at the time when the bill was going through parliament. I would think the comments are still on here, feel free to trawl though them if you are so interested.
I have said countless times to you in the last week that its not a big deal to me particularly, and not something I would campaign against, and I would also still vote ukip and be a member of the party if they were in favour of it. Why you keep banging on about it, and refuse to believe what I say, and accuse me of only holding the view I so because ukip do as well, god only knows.
IMHO Rennard is definitely more sinned against than sinning. The enquiry found that the allegations against him (which seem pretty minor in the scheme of things) were unproven, He hasn't been given a copy of the report, so he has no idea what he's supposed to apologise for. His counsel has advised him not to give an apology. I see no reason why he ought to apologise, other than he's expected to take one for the team.
I'm not sure the allegations are necessarily minor: the alleged behaviour might well have stopped some women from becoming candidates, and this may partially explain the discrepancy pointed out by a poster a few days ago.
It can't have been a very woman-friendly atmosphere.
This all comes back to the way the original allegations were handled. In that cover-up, the Lib Dems did Rennard, the women, or themselves, no favours. A proper disciplinary process could well have warned him against such unintended or intended behaviours.
BTW, I utterly agree that he should be able to view the report, as long as confidentiality is assured.
Rennard in / out? Sorry / not sorry? It is a very hard question to answer to a polling company. My own thoughts and views are illogical and contradictory.
Should he be asked to apologise? I think not, as that is asking him to admit public guilt, and he is not proven to be the perpetrator of any specific offences or indiscriminate acts.
Should he be allowed to stay in the Party? I think not, as there seems to be a likelihood of guilt and several members have reason to complain.
However you have to either prove that he is guilty or swallow your pride and accept him. I don't see where a middle way comes from.
Topically musing, I don't read the tabloids and have no tv, so I don't know what the old guy is actually accused of doing. It could well be improper but not hugely disgusting.
Maybe I live on another planet, but I wonder whether most people know much more about it than I do. If they don't, then how can they be expected to give a meaningful opinion to a pollster? On second thought, is politics more about opinions than logic?
As he's apparently not been found guilty of a provable offence and seeing that he's had a slap on the wrist, are there not much worse things we should be worrying about?
If I am uniquely ignorant then please ignore the above.
A Facebook campaign to get the classic 80s track ‘It’s Raining Men’ to the top of the charts has been deluged with support following a Ukip councillor claiming the legalisation of same-sex marriage was to blame for the recent floods.
Just shows how right Farage was to try and stop him, the susppend him for, talking about it in public as people would think his views represented UKIPs.
People don't need encouragement to misrepresent the party that all others fear most.
Even conservatives on here indulged in puerile jokes, forgetting that their party entertained this guy and his silly views without censure
Tell me, why are you against gay marriage?
It causes bad weather
A puerile answer from someone who's willing to restrict rights from a subsection of society for no f'ing reason.
Or is is just that you're mirroring UKIP's position with no intellectual thought?
What an absolute nause you are
I have said why I think what I think at great length on this site at the time when the bill was going through parliament. I would think the comments are still on here, feel free to trawl though them if you are so interested.
I have said countless times to you in the last week that its not a big deal to me particularly, and not something I would campaign against, and I would also still vote ukip and be a member of the party if they were in favour of it. Why you keep banging on about it, and refuse to believe what I say, and accuse me of only holding the view I so because ukip do as well, god only knows.
If it's no big deal to you, then why do you want to restrict their rights? Why not live and let live? It's a nonsensical position to hold.
And what other topics do you have this peculiar position on? For instance: "People being vegetarian is no big deal to me, but I think vegetarianism should be banned." ?
These unemployment figures are incredible, especially as BenM told us yesterday this was the most inept Government ever. Perhaps it is Labours policys of 2005-2010 beginning to work.
Comments
*I use the term loosely.
A 280K increase is just short of a 1% increase in the numbers employed over that period as this number has recently gone over 30m for the first time. Either productivity is still falling or the SWIFT forecast of 0.4% is well out. My understanding is that there are the first signs of an increase in productivity so the growth should be well above 0.4%.
I do not think this rate of job creation can continue but there are good prospects of a gradually falling unemployment rate for the year ahead. I am more confident than ever about my forecast of modest increases in the base rate by the end of this year.
You can go to prison for shopping about for value!
Hence they offer none whatsoever and clean up! Their first goalscorer prices make William Hills 80/1 about West Ham qualifying last nightlook generous
When the specific case is asked about Lib/Lab/UKIP are less sympathetic to him - only Con voters really don't switch about.
Con voters the only one backing Rennard over Clegg, as you head left it is more pro Clegg.
I'd like to see a gender divide - I reckon more women in the switchers.
... except, strangely, UKIP membership figures ... ;-)
Con: -2
Lab: +21
LibD: +15
UKIP: +10
M: +1
F: +16
I can't work out whether it was sour grapes or just the usual Ukip conspiracy theory.
The sharia law/cut their hands off for stealing etc one would be more popular with working class people I know than left wing politicians would think.
Thinking all working class people who voted for them are "progressives" is what will cost Labour dear I reckon
ONS have reordered the PSF figures this month, so the December figure is hidden in the middle rather than placed upfront.
Don't fear though: it is good news!
Borrowing in December 2013 was £2.1 bn below the level of December 2012 (excluding banking bailouts and the main one off cash flows). Dec 2012 was £14.2 bn for the month and Dec 2013 £12.1 bn.
If you set aside all the exclusions and look at the Government's net cash requirement (which drives actual borrowing through the Debt Management Office) then the picture is even rosier:
The central government net cash requirement for the year to date 2013/14 was £63.4 billion, £25.5 billion lower than the same period in 2012/13, when it was £88.9 billion.
The biggest month of the year for public sector finances is January, which will be reported next month. Payments due for self assessed income tax and corporation tax co-incide to make January the highest month of the year for tax receipts. All is looking at worst, on target for OBR's December EFO forecast for borrowing this f/y and , more probably, a better outcome than OBR's most up to date forecast.
St. George not only slays dragons, he kills deficits too.
The last stats I saw suggested there had been at least a pause in the reduction of those employed in the public sector. It will be interesting to see where this growth is coming from.
Given the higher benefits now available to those in work the impact on public spending is not as positive as it might once have been but it should still be a move in the right direction.
This country will thoroughly deserve the shit sandwich it chooses for itself in 2015 if things stay as they are.
Mortgage holder? Minutes of BankOfEngland's policy committee: "no immediate need" to raise rates even if 7% unemployment threshold hit soon
However, in either case, it is clear that his actions upset the women concerned, and so it reflects badly on him not to offer an apology for his actions. There is a level of social censure that is appropriate when a criminal conviction is not. You wouldn't expect him to be invited to many social occasions, for example.
Whether the Lib Dems, as an organisation, can force him to behave in the manner befitting an honourable gentleman, or can force him out of the party if he fails to meet their behavioural standards, is a slightly different matter. There is a difference between society, as a series of individual moral decisions, judging his actions sufficient to make him persona non grata, and an organisation putting a sort of official seal on such a judgement.
Net sleazy/disreputable (vs June 2013, Feb 13 for Lib Dem)
Labour: -11 (-15)
Con: +4 (-26)
LibD: +9 (-21)
then the picture is even rosier
Erm...how about: Then the picture is very marginally less of a total clusterfu<k than that which the coalition government inherited.
We've still got a monster deficit and need quite a few years to even level off the total debt. Don't get me wrong, I think Ozzy's doing a bang up job overall, but this country still has a loooooooong way to go before our economy is healthily rebalanced and the debt dynamics are sustainable.
Lucky he didn't play politics with that...
Oh..
There's something in this. I've come the the conclusion this country cannot abide good news. So many people revel in hatred of the government of one sort or another.
This impressive economic performance is nowhere on the front pages, even the right wing ones.
People are addicted to unrelentingly bad news.
Janan Ganesh @JananGanesh 19s
Labour market is rampant. Cameron wins on leadership. I ask again: why, if you're the Tory party, would you talk about anything else?
Interestingly, the figures show that older people are much more inclined to think that Rennard should go - by a 20-point margin (vs 3-6 for other population groups). It's always tempting to think up reasons AFTER one knows the figures, but perhaps this reflects a more censorious view of dodgy sexual behaviour among the older generation, with young people saying "oh, just give him a slap"? The fact that the Tories, who get most voters among the elderly, are the only group opposed to Rennard going, is quite odd - even post hoc I can't really work out a theory for that.
They are thinking "Mortgage is going to go up !"
The counter argument is that if the EZ continues to flirt with deflation or there is a continuing fall in commodity prices inflation may remain low. The IMF figures improving the global prospects suggests to me that the fall in commodities is going to run out at some point and the French and others are going to be screaming for some sort of QE by mid year.
I am still predicting a negative real rate, comfortably below the level of inflation but an increase in rates will be evidence that our economy is climbing off its sickbed, not evidence that things have gone wrong (except on the BBC of course).
“Today’s fall in overall unemployment is welcome. The Government should use this opportunity to tackle the unacceptably high levels of long-term unemployment and youth unemployment. More than 900,000 young people are unemployed and over 250,000 young people are long-term unemployed.
http://press.labour.org.uk/post/74159462215/fall-in-unemployment-welcome-but-families-are-still
Not to worry though, because if this performance continues people should be feeling it by the end of the year, IMO.
Vote Percentage Over Unders 5/6
Labour 45.5
UKIP 26.5
Conservative 12.5
LD 9.5
No bet too small, some too big... Surely some of you opinionated swine have a view?
Only place in the world where this market is available, trying to play me against bookies if and when they go up will be frowned upon
People are addicted to unrelentingly bad news.
It is a damaging national characteristic that we seem so reluctant to be positive.
'How are you? Mustn't grumble/not too bad/still alive and kicking.'
It is most damaging in our attitude to success. We seem finally (maybe post-Olympics) to be more comfortable with sporting heroics. We are not there yet as a nation on business / financial / political achievement.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6CldJZddieA&list=UUFAmuev5BtHEh3o-WxgFA3g&feature=c4-overview
ONS have taken great effort in their auditions to find the dullest voice over available.
desperation there. Ms Reeves forgets that there were long term unemployed in the 13 years of Blair bingeing and that her party imported people rather than get our own in to work.
Times News @TimesNewsdesk 45s
Second Lib Dem activist ready to sue http://thetim.es/LSyORo
Good news for @edballsmp - unemployment down again in Morley and Outwood. In May 2010 was 2,058. Now 1,471.
https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/reports/lmp/wpca/1929380137/subreports/jsa_time_series/report.aspx …
But this statement shows the extent of Labour's problem and the paucity of their thinking. The UK economy is creating jobs at the rate of 3K a day and the governments' priority should be to increase the rate of job creation? Absolutely not.
What they need to do is exactly what they are doing which is to facilitate and part fund the doubling of apprenticeships that we have seen and to improve training opportunities but public sector job creation is the last thing we need.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/facebook-campaign-to-get-its-raining-men-to-number-1-after-ukip-councillor-blames-floods-on-gay-marriage-9075412.html
I would have thought that a £25.4 bn cumulative drop in the amount of cash needed by the government to pay its bills this year would be a great cause for celebration in Warwickshire.
Remember we don't have a Leamington Spa und Stratford Sparkasse in the UK to plug holes in public and private finance.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/commonwealth-games/25832867
Question: is this because of the cost, or because of the anachronistic nature of the Commonwealth? My view is that the Games' time has passed. It generates little enthusiasm in the UK (elsewhere? I don't know), and is a weak, watery shadow of the Olympics and World Championships.
Athlete 1: I won an Olympic medal!
Athlete 2: I won a Commonwealth medal!
Athlete 1: Whatever.
But I see my job on PB to remain upbeat in order to keep our Midlands depressives from self-harming.
I see it all as being part of the Big Society.
Of course things could change, but, pace Mr Pole, the good news in terms of growth has to be kept in context: it's steady recovery from a low base, not rampant growth which looks in danger of becoming over-heating.
Basically, both from the government's and the BoE's point of view, I'd have thought we were bang on course and it's steady as she goes.
Afterall it just builds up the smell around the LDs. But personally I would want Rennard out on the grounds that he has offended so many females inside the party.
People don't need encouragement to misrepresent the party that all others fear most.
Even conservatives on here indulged in puerile jokes, forgetting that their party entertained this guy and his silly views without censure
On the one hand, he's not been found guilty in a court of law of anything, and given the high profile cases currently ongoing, I suppose some people can't understand what the fuss is about. Surely if he's "innocent", or at least not legally guilty, why does Clegg want him to apologise?
On the other hand, some Lib Dem women have made some serious allegations against him, which the Lib Dem party have investigated and sort of cleared him, but also say that he should apologise for his unacceptable behaviour towards the women. Very confusing.
I guess Rennard thinks that giving an apology implies his guilt, which, to be fair, is an understandable position if you believe you've done nothing wrong.
#BenefitsStreet White Dee Votes Labour but tells Clegg she may go back to the LDs
http://order-order.com/2014/01/22/watch-benefitsstreet-white-dee-votes-labour/
Welcome to that endorsement!
As for your point on borrowing, well it's catch up. You're only highlighting what you didn't do a few years back and reminding us all how much we've had to pay for the privilege. We expect you to rein in spending it's what HMT's job is, but you appear to want a medal every time you get out of bed.
In PR less is often more.
Can someone tell me:
1) Where these jobs will come from;
2) How will people be fitted with the best jobs;
3) How will this not impact on other groups of employees.
Of course, if Labour had sorted out the education system and not encouraged grade inflation (*), then perhaps many youngsters would be better suited for the wonderful world of work ...
(*) As Hunt recently admitted.
Mr Pole we industrious people in the Midlands are well used to having to stand on our own two feet since the southern barrow boys contribute little to our prosperity. Having you chaps flap about that you've done something once in a while is a bit like having a swarm of insects buzzing round your head when you're trying to repair a major piece of machinery.
The 7% unemployment rate is one of three "thresholds" at which the BoE will "start to consider" changing interest rates. There is no automatic trigger and the BoE have been going to great lengths over recent weeks to emphasise that they will look at the overall position of the economy when making any decision on raising rates.
In particular, all the talk is over the need for UK productivity to recover and for the Eurozone's economy to pick up to the extent that it boosts UK exports, before interest rates can rise.
I think Mark Carney is looking for someone like compouter to help him move the goalposts on the Threadneedle Street playing fields.
As you rightly point out all current inflation expectations are subdued and the risk of deflation is currently perceived to be higher than rampant inflation.
Everything points to a soft shoe shuffle on interest rates coming up from the Old Lady.
The next step to normality is to restore real interest rates. This will take a considerable time, probably 3 or 4 more years of modest recovery, maybe more.
But keeping base rates at 0.5% is not cost free, it is a major distortion in our economy and robs the prudent and the saver. It encourages excessive investment in the housing market reducing affordability. It makes the pension deficits of those companies and the public sector with final salary pension entitlements almost unmanageable. It overly encourages consumption and the sucking in of imports.
I think by the end of this year it will be time to show that the economy is no longer in intensive care and to start to carve out a path to normality. The world will not end if interest rates climb to the dizzy heights of 1%.
Lib Dem Press Office @LibDemPress 1m
Unemployment falls again @libdems in Government have made this happen #strongereconomy
pic.twitter.com/Nxwt2hgFnP
Or is is just that you're mirroring UKIP's position with no intellectual thought?
LAB voters 56-29, LD voters 47-32, UKIP voter 47-37 say he shd leave
I have said why I think what I think at great length on this site at the time when the bill was going through parliament. I would think the comments are still on here, feel free to trawl though them if you are so interested.
I have said countless times to you in the last week that its not a big deal to me particularly, and not something I would campaign against, and I would also still vote ukip and be a member of the party if they were in favour of it. Why you keep banging on about it, and refuse to believe what I say, and accuse me of only holding the view I so because ukip do as well, god only knows.
North East - 134,000 - plus 1,000 - 10.3%
North West - 270,000 - minus 24,000 - 7.9%
Yorkshire/Humber - 235,000 - minus 8,000 - 8.4%
East Midlands - 149,000 - minus 28,000 - 6.4%
West Midlands - 222,000 - minus 32,000 - 8.1%
East of England - 178,000 - minus 7,000 - 5.7%
London - 354,000 - minus 18,000 - 8.1%
South East - 244,000 - minus 29,000 - 5.3%
South West - 187,000 - plus 15,000 - 6.8%
Wales - 108,000 - minus 12,000 - 7.2%
Scotland - 176,000 - minus 25,000 - 6.4%
Northern Ireland - 63,000 - plus 1,000 - 7.3%
(SE & Midlands doing exceptionally well)
It can't have been a very woman-friendly atmosphere.
This all comes back to the way the original allegations were handled. In that cover-up, the Lib Dems did Rennard, the women, or themselves, no favours. A proper disciplinary process could well have warned him against such unintended or intended behaviours.
BTW, I utterly agree that he should be able to view the report, as long as confidentiality is assured.
Should he be asked to apologise?
I think not, as that is asking him to admit public guilt, and he is not proven to be the perpetrator of any specific offences or indiscriminate acts.
Should he be allowed to stay in the Party?
I think not, as there seems to be a likelihood of guilt and several members have reason to complain.
However you have to either prove that he is guilty or swallow your pride and accept him. I don't see where a middle way comes from.
Maybe I live on another planet, but I wonder whether most people know much more about it than I do. If they don't, then how can they be expected to give a meaningful opinion to a pollster? On second thought, is politics more about opinions than logic?
As he's apparently not been found guilty of a provable offence and seeing that he's had a slap on the wrist, are there not much worse things we should be worrying about?
If I am uniquely ignorant then please ignore the above.
And what other topics do you have this peculiar position on? For instance: "People being vegetarian is no big deal to me, but I think vegetarianism should be banned." ?
Also the Allied landings at Anzio, south of Rome, began 70 years ago today.
From what I have read, it appeared he chatted them up as if he had any chance.
Perhaps the Lib Dems should buy him a mirror.
Isam/Josias - Your conversation is now closed.