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The Speccie speculates – “Rishi by Christmas?” – politicalbetting.com

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,270
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT:

    Do you know in 2006 an absolute majority of the country thought it would be Wrong if a Scottish person was Prime Minister. The BBC did a whole "Politics Show" about it and what a disgcrace it would be if a Scot was at the top

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/politics_show/4757329.stm

    That is NOT what the poll asked or said!!!!!!!

    There have already been a stack of Scottish Prime Ministers. At least 7 who were Scottish and more than 10 who were born in Scotland, with various PMs representing Scottish constituencies.

    The poll was asking whether a Scottish MP should be PM of the United Kingdom, which isn't at all the same question.

    Naughty boy!! ;)
    Fun fact, there have been more PMs born in both Canada and the United States than there have been in Wales.

    Edit - I'm sure this will gladden the heart of @TSE wherever he is on holiday :wink:
    Indeed.

    Heck a Welsh person has been Prime Minister of Australia more recently than we've had a Welsh UK Prime Minister, although if Mark Drakeford, the true Prince of Wales, might break that drought, if he became Labour leader.
    That is a good point I had not thought of.

    There have been more British PMs born in Canada than in Wales.
    There have been more British PMs born in America than in Wales.
    There have been more Australian than British PMs born in Wales.

    And the Scots complain about a lack of influence?
    Michael Howard was born in Wales as was Neil Kinnock but voters preferred Blair and Thatcher
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    148grss said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Rishi would not have a majority in the Commons either, enough Trussites and Borisonians to see to that.

    Nope

    Support Rishi or they are out of a job.

    Grab them by the balls and their hearts and minds will follow...
    I mean enough of them might be out of a job either way, so what does it matter being spiteful on the way out?
    After a VoNC the choices are

    vote for this person and have 2 more years in Parliament as we try to fix things
    start job hunting because there is a GE in 5 weeks' time and you are not going to win your seat.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    German import prices up YoY by 33%, that's the worst rise since this index started.

    I think the age of European heavy industry is coming to an end and people aren't awake to it yet. Cheap energy and outsourcing national defence has driven the German economy for 30 years since reunification, neither are on the horizon now.

    We think our politicians fucked up energy investment for the last 20 years, yet it's not nearly as bad as Germany. Worse is that Germany relies far more on heavy industry than the UK, the threat out power outages means offices are shut here but people can wfh, power outages there means days of production equipment sitting idle and huge losses in national output.

    I fear that the continent hasn't yet woken up to what the end of the cheap energy age really means, neither has the UK, yet we're not as exposed due to our already small manufacturing sector.

    But if we can get both wind and tidal scaled up sufficiently we will have the advantages of not being beholden to various despots and a better balance of trade. It won't be as cheap as Russian or ME oil and gas but it will not be a disaster either.
    Compared to when gas was at its cheapest it's going to be a huge increase. Gas is also very energy dense and that has a lot of uses in industry that electrical power struggles to imitate. We need to increase electricity production by somewhere around 5-7x if we're to end our reliance on gas and oil. Excluding transport that number falls to around 3x - for the UK.

    For Germany it's a much bigger multiple of their non fossil fuel energy production because they're starting from much further back and gave higher energy use. It's legitimately hundreds of billions of Euros in renewables investment at a time when money is no longer cheap and readily available (as our government has discovered) and surging input prices.

    Another key difference is that the UK seems resolved to build nuclear at scale, Germany doesn't seem ti be reconciled to new nuclear, they're still dithering over restarting the existing reactors. That will tell a decade from now, especially if RR aren't bullshitting us about the mini reactors and build time/cost per reactor.
    If Rolls Royce can get a mini-nuke up and running before Hinkley Point C that would be revealing - but it might not be a very strong time constraint.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    MaxPB said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    FPT:
    How it is done elsewhere:

    https://easymilano.com/when-can-we-switch-on-the-heating-in-italy/

    Given a sizeable number of people live in communal apartments, this is a pretty broad regulation defining the date central heating can be switched on, how many hours a day it can run and what it can be set to. It is split by zone, from a few Alpine locations where limitations are minimal, to the South where the heating is only allowed to come on 5 hours a day for a few weeks a year.

    Also note the article is from 2020 - Italy's approach this year has been to reset the regulations as 1 degree less on the the thermostat, one hour less per day, one week less on the start and end dates (broadly, I liked the idea and it is how I've set up my heating for winter)



    That seems sensible. A similar campaign here could mean no risk of blackouts. Liz Truss is an idiot.
    I think there is an aversion to the state telling you how to behave at play. I keep seeing posters suggest that the cost pressure has been removed from energy costs this winter. This is simply not true - its been heavily mitigated for sure, but most folk are seeing energy bills go up. At the same time the media is all over this with 'how reduce your bills' stories. Thats what the people pay attention too - Phil and Holly, or the One Show, not government broadcasts.

    People will be taking action to save money this winter and this will help reduce consumption, all without the state having to do anything.
    I think we need to look at this just as we did the first lockdown. Clear and consistent messaging from the government will help keep the lights on this winter (and probably the following two). Hoping that enough people act voluntarily without proper advice or from non official advice will result in rolling blackouts and interruptions in gas supply for households.

    The downside to doing nothing is potentially very large and the upside is non-existent. Liz Truss is putting the nation at risk for some idiotic ideology. Even I supported the first lockdown, just because there were so many unknowns. This is similar, except we know that normal usage by households and industry will result in blackouts. Even basic advice in when in the day or night to run dishwashers and washing machines or how to save electricity when using the oven (tip - don't use the fan assist, put the temperature up by 10 degrees vs the instructions and cut the cooking time a bit). These are basic information that loads of people just don't know, giving people the tools to help themselves and the nation is a win/win.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT:

    Do you know in 2006 an absolute majority of the country thought it would be Wrong if a Scottish person was Prime Minister. The BBC did a whole "Politics Show" about it and what a disgcrace it would be if a Scot was at the top

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/politics_show/4757329.stm

    That is NOT what the poll asked or said!!!!!!!

    There have already been a stack of Scottish Prime Ministers. At least 7 who were Scottish and more than 10 who were born in Scotland, with various PMs representing Scottish constituencies.

    The poll was asking whether a Scottish MP should be PM of the United Kingdom, which isn't at all the same question.

    Naughty boy!! ;)
    Fun fact, there have been more PMs born in both Canada and the United States than there have been in Wales.

    Edit - I'm sure this will gladden the heart of @TSE wherever he is on holiday :wink:
    Indeed.

    Heck a Welsh person has been Prime Minister of Australia more recently than we've had a Welsh UK Prime Minister, although if Mark Drakeford, the true Prince of Wales, might break that drought, if he became Labour leader.
    That is a good point I had not thought of.

    There have been more British PMs born in Canada than in Wales.
    There have been more British PMs born in America than in Wales.
    There have been more Australian than British PMs born in Wales.

    And the Scots complain about a lack of influence?
    Michael Howard was born in Wales as was Neil Kinnock but voters preferred Blair and Thatcher
    I hadn't forgotten. And it makes no difference to my point.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    148grss said:

    I just don't see the mechanism that puts Rishi in No 10 by Christmas that also doesn't implode the Conservative Party anyway? The membership just voted, and they didn't vote for Rishi. Sure, the MPs seemed to prefer him, but that wasn't enough to get him over the line. And so many big names got behind Truss in the end that, were Rishi to win, he'd have to put them all in the backbenches, stacking them with enemies.

    I also don't see how the 22 committee justifies changing the rules on the leadership election and running a new selection in under 6 months, when the argument is also that a GE can't be held now because we need a functioning government.

    Clearly the Conservative party cannot govern, they just refuse to admit that, and so much of our constitutional order is built on the assumption that politicians have a sense of shame. I can't imagine Truss being able to pass most of the things she's suggesting in the commons, and the Lords would have a good argument to make that certain things lie outside what the manifesto pledges were.

    Whilst I don't expect the turkeys to vote for Christmas, I don't see any other option than a GE sorting this out. And that lies only in Truss' hands, short of a VonC and no other government being able to form.

    I think the MPs who got behind Truss in the end only did it because she was seen as the winner. Now she's looking like a total loser I'm sure they'd happily back Rishi.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360
    The extraordinary thing to me is that the anonymous supporter in the Speccie and the bookies think there is such a high chance (33% or above) of LT being PM after the next election. Smarkets puts it at 25%. That is still high. The gap is interesting.

    But it seems to me that once you take account of these factors:

    LT may not be leader at the next election

    If she is leader she only needs to lose about 50/60 seats to have no chance of being next PM, which looks at the moment a racing certainty

    Labour are likely to maintain their discipline over both loonies and saying anything about policy to frighten the horses

    Boris being Boris did not protect him when push came to shove; LT has a millionth of the charisma and popular appeal, or campaigning ability

    Whatever anyone says in advance, the SNP are not going to do Snn Fein and act in such a way as to keep the Tories in power despite losing a majority (are they??)

    I would put LT as PM after the next election at 15-20% probability. Bet accordingly.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    148grss said:

    eek said:

    148grss said:

    I just don't see the mechanism that puts Rishi in No 10 by Christmas that also doesn't implode the Conservative Party anyway? The membership just voted, and they didn't vote for Rishi. Sure, the MPs seemed to prefer him, but that wasn't enough to get him over the line. And so many big names got behind Truss in the end that, were Rishi to win, he'd have to put them all in the backbenches, stacking them with enemies.

    I also don't see how the 22 committee justifies changing the rules on the leadership election and running a new selection in under 6 months, when the argument is also that a GE can't be held now because we need a functioning government.

    Clearly the Conservative party cannot govern, they just refuse to admit that, and so much of our constitutional order is built on the assumption that politicians have a sense of shame. I can't imagine Truss being able to pass most of the things she's suggesting in the commons, and the Lords would have a good argument to make that certain things lie outside what the manifesto pledges were.

    Whilst I don't expect the turkeys to vote for Christmas, I don't see any other option than a GE sorting this out. And that lies only in Truss' hands, short of a VonC and no other government being able to form.

    I suspect the solution is a VonC followed by a new Tory party leader being selected to avoid an election.

    Although a general election with Liz selling her policies to the general public would be fun to watch as she loses the Tory party votes every time she appears on TV.
    But would enough Trussites / Johnsonites not be willing to mess with a Rishi government? If Tory unity / discipline is this shot under Truss, and Truss did beat Rishi, why should it be better if Rishi got in charge? Would his cabinet be significantly different?

    Not to mention that there is very little evidence that Rishi would have the ability to get back the popularity Truss has lost - some of the damage has already been done regarding mortgages and pensions, and Rishi seems unlikely to do anything that could change that.
    The present Cabinet is notably partisan. LizT's successor would be well-advised to appoint a more balanced Cabinet. If you look at Mrs Thatcher's first Cabinet, it is stuffed to the gills with wets and grandees. The same is true of most Prime Ministers, even Boris to an extent. So yes, Rishi (or anyone) is more likely to keep MPs onside.

    Rishi is also, of all the contenders, most market-friendly. That he publicly predicted what would happen in response to Kwasi's not-budget is the cherry on the cake.

    But most significant will be the polls. Truss is toast because the polls show most Conservative MPs losing their seats. Her successor needs to change that.
    But how can Rishi have both a coalitional cabinet, and be market / voter friendly? The fact is that the loony faction of the party have a lot of sway, and you can't ignore them, so you have to let some loons into the cabinet who will say and do loony things that either upset voters or upset the markets. Would Rishi keep anyone in this cabinet in position / promote people? Would he sack Braverman or Mogg? What could he really do that would make the markets feel comfortable - if one Tory leader can go in 6 months, why trust Rishi is a long term bet?

    I know the Tory party and their MPs only really care about their own skin, but really the party is a mess beyond the policy issues I disagree with. Cabinet is not singing from the same hymn sheet, and backbenchers are all espousing on policy positions - with most of them disagreeing with each other. The only thing they agree on is they don't want Labour in government, which now Starmer is in charge a few may actually not be that worried about either.

    The party need to lose, need to regroup and unite, and need to leave the country governed by a party that can at least govern itself. It's just such a shame that that is Starmer's Labour...
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,255
    Phil said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    FPT:
    How it is done elsewhere:

    https://easymilano.com/when-can-we-switch-on-the-heating-in-italy/

    Given a sizeable number of people live in communal apartments, this is a pretty broad regulation defining the date central heating can be switched on, how many hours a day it can run and what it can be set to. It is split by zone, from a few Alpine locations where limitations are minimal, to the South where the heating is only allowed to come on 5 hours a day for a few weeks a year.

    Also note the article is from 2020 - Italy's approach this year has been to reset the regulations as 1 degree less on the the thermostat, one hour less per day, one week less on the start and end dates (broadly, I liked the idea and it is how I've set up my heating for winter)



    That seems sensible. A similar campaign here could mean no risk of blackouts. Liz Truss is an idiot.
    Liz Truss represents the end state of a weird subclass of libertarian thinking. An absolute belief that the state should not exercise any kind of control over individual citizens, not even the most minimal control of persuasive argument & influence, because to do so is to deny the liberty of individual citizens to do whatever they damn well please & take the consequences. When those consequences only affect them as individuals this is a perfectly workable moral system, but it fails utterly when collective action is required to stave off consequences that affect all of us.

    The weird thing here is that, perhaps surprisingly, in many cases all that is actually required is to explain the inevitable consequences and request co-operation & people are happy to comply, within the limits set by their individual circumstances. What could be more libertarian than that? Individuals know their personal circumstances & can do their best to act appropritely if they so choose, given the information that the goverment presents them with.

    In this case, to get through this winter without blackouts no one needs to go without heating or power: Some attention to necessity is all that’s required, as far as I can tell. Yet the government refuses to do anything at all. Madness.
    Spot on.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    Heathener said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT:

    Do you know in 2006 an absolute majority of the country thought it would be Wrong if a Scottish person was Prime Minister. The BBC did a whole "Politics Show" about it and what a disgcrace it would be if a Scot was at the top

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/politics_show/4757329.stm

    That is NOT what the poll asked or said!!!!!!!

    There have already been a stack of Scottish Prime Ministers. At least 7 who were Scottish and more than 10 who were born in Scotland, with various PMs representing Scottish constituencies.

    The poll was asking whether an MP of the Scottish Parliament could also be PM of the United Kingdom, which isn't at all the same question.

    Naughty boy!! ;)
    No it wasn't.

    I watched the program and can read the question. It was if a Scottish MP at Westminster could be PM. If it was about an MSP the question would say MSP.

    Now that Scotland has its own Parliament, dealing with internal Scottish affairs, in future do you think it is right or wrong that a Scottish MP can become Prime Minister of the whole UK?
    IIRC Ben Page said the question was clouded by the fact that Gordon Brown and Labour polled very badly at that time and the fact we had a Scottish born PM for nearly a decade at the time which also had an impact.
    The question was also phenomenally leading in my opinion. I was surprised it was asked in that form.

    We were also at peak "screaming about the Tartan Mafia" in the political columns at this point as well.

    A lot of factors went into the final result.
  • In its story about Boris's political peerages expected any day now (though not his resignation honours list which may be months away) the Telegraph mentions that:-

    A number of Tories who had been on Mr Johnson’s peerage list have been removed since Liz Truss took office last month. It is unclear why. More last-minute changes could be yet to be made.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/06/leaked-list-reveals-brexiteers-tory-donors-due-get-peerages/ (£££)

    Nadine being removed might explain much....
    Avoiding embarrassing by-elections might be the obvious reason for LizT to fillet Boris's peers.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,364
    edited October 2022
    The basic problem with energy supply can be put down to short-sigtedness of Governments. They are here today and possibly gone tomorrow. I put solar panels on my roof more than a decade ago, because I expected to live long enough to benefit, but the short-term politicians we elect don't.

    We should invest in green solutions as we slowly phase out fossil fuels. Not play to the loons in XR by doing it all at
    once and hoping for the best. That Putin is a nice man, and can be trusted. As are the Saudis.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT:

    Do you know in 2006 an absolute majority of the country thought it would be Wrong if a Scottish person was Prime Minister. The BBC did a whole "Politics Show" about it and what a disgcrace it would be if a Scot was at the top

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/politics_show/4757329.stm

    That is NOT what the poll asked or said!!!!!!!

    There have already been a stack of Scottish Prime Ministers. At least 7 who were Scottish and more than 10 who were born in Scotland, with various PMs representing Scottish constituencies.

    The poll was asking whether a Scottish MP should be PM of the United Kingdom, which isn't at all the same question.

    Naughty boy!! ;)
    Fun fact, there have been more PMs born in both Canada and the United States than there have been in Wales.

    Edit - I'm sure this will gladden the heart of @TSE wherever he is on holiday :wink:
    Indeed.

    Heck a Welsh person has been Prime Minister of Australia more recently than we've had a Welsh UK Prime Minister, although if Mark Drakeford, the true Prince of Wales, might break that drought, if he became Labour leader.
    That is a good point I had not thought of.

    There have been more British PMs born in Canada than in Wales.
    There have been more British PMs born in America than in Wales.
    There have been more Australian than British PMs born in Wales.

    And the Scots complain about a lack of influence?
    Michael Howard was born in Wales as was Neil Kinnock but voters preferred Blair and Thatcher
    I hadn't forgotten. And it makes no difference to my point.
    Or indeed reinforces it.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Icarus said:

    Gove?

    First and last paragraph of Simon Jenkins in the Guardian ."Never underestimate the Tory party. It has confined Labour to just 13 of the past 43 years in office. It never gives in without a fight and is unafraid of ruthlessly toppling leaders. The latest, Liz Truss, has shown herself in just four weeks to have been a major mistake. The party has two years to correct that mistake before facing the electorate.............In reality, the task for a caretaker leader is not to win the next election, it is to persuade the Conservatives that electoral humiliation under Truss can be avoided. The party needs to rediscover itself, to put the turmoil of Brexit, lockdown and Truss behind it. Most of all, it needs to become a united and effective opposition to a forthcoming Starmer administration. Gove is the person to preside over that transition."

    I had always felt that, despite his enduring popularity with Tory members and voters (I recall him being consistently one of the highest preferred leaders on ConHome polls) he really failed to resonate with voters - his Pobbish face and pseudo-intellectualism - plus recall his removal from Education prior to the 2015 election, on the grounds of his toxicity to the teaching profession, a good chunk of whom (then, still) were potential conservative voters*.

    But the passage of time and parade of ever-increasing incompetence over the last seven years has maybe started to cast him in a different light - the steady-handed grandee, Hague-like. His work in Justice and Environment was genuinely progressive and bipartisan too - lessons learned perhaps from his ultimate failure at DfE. In reality though, he's probably seen as too slippery and untrustworthy by his colleagues. A nearly man. His diaries will make for excellent reading though.

    *I remember polling from 2010 which actually had the tories as the most popular party among teachers; granted an effect of a big swing from Lab to LD, but still a reminder that teachers are regular people too - very much not the hard-left lobby group they are often painted as.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Labour extends lead to 22 points in our voting intention tracker.
     
    Lab 48% (+1)
    Con 26% (-1) 
    LibDem 10% (-1)
    Green 6% (nc)
    SNP 4% (nc)
     
    1,636 questioned on 5-6 October. Changes with 28-29 September
     
    Details & data at http://www.technetracker.co.uk https://twitter.com/techneUK/status/1578272661028757505/photo/1

    So that includes polling on what people thought of Truss’s conference speech! That a very poor poll for her.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Pulpstar said:

    Any sensible preparations for winter power cuts ahead? Buying a couple of decent usb torches and a usb reading light. A chance to catch up on some reading.

    What about power back ups for PCs? Seems they don't last very long and guess home wifi wont work either so benefit would be safely closing down rather than keeping it online?

    Anything I can do for fridge/freezer?

    I hope they'll say when these power cuts might be as we'll have to prep a thermos flask up for junior beforehand.
    As will every other bottle feeding parent without a gas hob.
    A 5g dongle could replace your WiFi if the laptop still has power. Or your phone as a WiFi hotspot? Ok for emails and low volume stuff.

    In the 70s we got printed blackout timetables telling us when they were. I can't remember the durations tho.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    Does absolutely nobody on here think Truss has a point? This issue already has saturation coverage and there are other things they could spend the money on.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    Does absolutely nobody on here think Truss has a point? This issue already has saturation coverage and there are other things they could spend the money on.

    Because it only costs £15m.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Sandpit said:

    Any sensible preparations for winter power cuts ahead? Buying a couple of decent usb torches and a usb reading light. A chance to catch up on some reading.

    What about power back ups for PCs? Seems they don't last very long and guess home wifi wont work either so benefit would be safely closing down rather than keeping it online?

    Anything I can do for fridge/freezer?

    Blankets and jumpers.

    Torch for reading light.

    Portable camping gas stove and a stove kettle - most regular gas cookers won’t run with no power, they have a safety cutout.

    For a desktop PC, get a UPS.

    You can get a device called an inverter, that will turn your car engine into a generator and give 240v. It’ll be enough to run the PC, wifi router, and chargers for phones, laptops, torches etc
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/LVYUAN-Inverter-Converter-Cigarette-Lighter/dp/B08PS1LKCP/
    Don’t run the inverter without the engine running (it will kill the battery in minutes!), make sure your car can’t be stolen if left with the engine running, and don’t run out of petrol!

    Fridge/freezer not much, but a modern one will keep cold for a couple of days if you don’t open it. You could run it from the inverter for a bit, if nothing else is plugged in.

    Get a generator if you really need power for more than just emergencies, it’s more efficient than using the car!
    The cigarette lighter in a car is usually on a 10A fuse so 120W before any losses in the inverter. Useless.

    If you're going to do it you need something like a 1000W inverter than can draw 100A+ (they are usually fused at 150-200A) from the battery.
  • Phil said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    FPT:
    How it is done elsewhere:

    https://easymilano.com/when-can-we-switch-on-the-heating-in-italy/

    Given a sizeable number of people live in communal apartments, this is a pretty broad regulation defining the date central heating can be switched on, how many hours a day it can run and what it can be set to. It is split by zone, from a few Alpine locations where limitations are minimal, to the South where the heating is only allowed to come on 5 hours a day for a few weeks a year.

    Also note the article is from 2020 - Italy's approach this year has been to reset the regulations as 1 degree less on the the thermostat, one hour less per day, one week less on the start and end dates (broadly, I liked the idea and it is how I've set up my heating for winter)



    That seems sensible. A similar campaign here could mean no risk of blackouts. Liz Truss is an idiot.
    Liz Truss represents the end state of a weird subclass of libertarian thinking. An absolute belief that the state should not exercise any kind of control over individual citizens, not even the most minimal control of persuasive argument & influence, because to do so is to deny the liberty of individual citizens to do whatever they damn well please & take the consequences. When those consequences only affect them as individuals this is a perfectly workable moral system, but it fails utterly when collective action is required to stave off consequences that affect all of us.

    The weird thing here is that, perhaps surprisingly, in many cases all that is actually required is to explain the inevitable consequences and request co-operation & people are happy to comply, within the limits set by their individual circumstances. What could be more libertarian than that? Individuals know their personal circumstances & can do their best to act appropritely if they so choose, given the information that the goverment presents them with.

    In this case, to get through this winter without blackouts no one needs to go without heating or power: Some attention to necessity is all that’s required, as far as I can tell. Yet the government refuses to do anything at all. Madness.
    I very much agree with this analysis.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,503
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Labour extends lead to 22 points in our voting intention tracker.
     
    Lab 48% (+1)
    Con 26% (-1) 
    LibDem 10% (-1)
    Green 6% (nc)
    SNP 4% (nc)
     
    1,636 questioned on 5-6 October. Changes with 28-29 September
     
    Details & data at http://www.technetracker.co.uk https://twitter.com/techneUK/status/1578272661028757505/photo/1

    That's especially interesting as it's fully post-Liz speech. It does show a less devastating Labour lead. Note however that the tables show much greater Labour certainty to vote (92% in the 7-10 range, vs 68-73% for all the other parties) and this doesn't seem to be factored into the results. That could well change in an actual election, of course, but I think there are quite a few "oh, sod it, I won't bother" Tory voters out there.

    https://www.techneuk.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/R37-UK-2022-10-7-DATA.pdf
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT:

    Do you know in 2006 an absolute majority of the country thought it would be Wrong if a Scottish person was Prime Minister. The BBC did a whole "Politics Show" about it and what a disgcrace it would be if a Scot was at the top

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/politics_show/4757329.stm

    That is NOT what the poll asked or said!!!!!!!

    There have already been a stack of Scottish Prime Ministers. At least 7 who were Scottish and more than 10 who were born in Scotland, with various PMs representing Scottish constituencies.

    The poll was asking whether a Scottish MP should be PM of the United Kingdom, which isn't at all the same question.

    Naughty boy!! ;)
    Fun fact, there have been more PMs born in both Canada and the United States than there have been in Wales.

    Edit - I'm sure this will gladden the heart of @TSE wherever he is on holiday :wink:
    Indeed.

    Heck a Welsh person has been Prime Minister of Australia more recently than we've had a Welsh UK Prime Minister, although if Mark Drakeford, the true Prince of Wales, might break that drought, if he became Labour leader.
    That is a good point I had not thought of.

    There have been more British PMs born in Canada than in Wales.
    There have been more British PMs born in America than in Wales.
    There have been more Australian than British PMs born in Wales.

    And the Scots complain about a lack of influence?
    This is what a good historian does, educates people and makes them look at things with a new perspective.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT:

    Do you know in 2006 an absolute majority of the country thought it would be Wrong if a Scottish person was Prime Minister. The BBC did a whole "Politics Show" about it and what a disgcrace it would be if a Scot was at the top

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/politics_show/4757329.stm

    That is NOT what the poll asked or said!!!!!!!

    There have already been a stack of Scottish Prime Ministers. At least 7 who were Scottish and more than 10 who were born in Scotland, with various PMs representing Scottish constituencies.

    The poll was asking whether a Scottish MP should be PM of the United Kingdom, which isn't at all the same question.

    Naughty boy!! ;)
    Fun fact, there have been more PMs born in both Canada and the United States than there have been in Wales.

    Edit - I'm sure this will gladden the heart of @TSE wherever he is on holiday :wink:
    Indeed.

    Heck a Welsh person has been Prime Minister of Australia more recently than we've had a Welsh UK Prime Minister, although if Mark Drakeford, the true Prince of Wales, might break that drought, if he became Labour leader.
    That is a good point I had not thought of.

    There have been more British PMs born in Canada than in Wales.
    There have been more British PMs born in America than in Wales.
    There have been more Australian than British PMs born in Wales.

    And the Scots complain about a lack of influence?
    And on a total tangent, more men have walked on the moon than the number of actors who have played James Bond ;)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    edited October 2022
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Any sensible preparations for winter power cuts ahead? Buying a couple of decent usb torches and a usb reading light. A chance to catch up on some reading.

    What about power back ups for PCs? Seems they don't last very long and guess home wifi wont work either so benefit would be safely closing down rather than keeping it online?

    Anything I can do for fridge/freezer?

    Blankets and jumpers.

    Torch for reading light.

    Portable camping gas stove and a stove kettle - most regular gas cookers won’t run with no power, they have a safety cutout.

    For a desktop PC, get a UPS.

    You can get a device called an inverter, that will turn your car engine into a generator and give 240v. It’ll be enough to run the PC, wifi router, and chargers for phones, laptops, torches etc
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/LVYUAN-Inverter-Converter-Cigarette-Lighter/dp/B08PS1LKCP/
    Don’t run the inverter without the engine running (it will kill the battery in minutes!), make sure your car can’t be stolen if left with the engine running, and don’t run out of petrol!

    Fridge/freezer not much, but a modern one will keep cold for a couple of days if you don’t open it. You could run it from the inverter for a bit, if nothing else is plugged in.

    Get a generator if you really need power for more than just emergencies, it’s more efficient than using the car!
    The cigarette lighter in a car is usually on a 10A fuse so 120W before any losses in the inverter. Useless.

    If you're going to do it you need something like a 1000W inverter than can draw 100A+ (they are usually fused at 150-200A) from the battery.
    Yes, if you’re gonna plug your fridge in, use the battery cables provided and not the cigarette lighter, and don’t leave it running long.

    They are good for laptops and routers though, which is what you might need in an emergency,
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    Phil said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    FPT:
    How it is done elsewhere:

    https://easymilano.com/when-can-we-switch-on-the-heating-in-italy/

    Given a sizeable number of people live in communal apartments, this is a pretty broad regulation defining the date central heating can be switched on, how many hours a day it can run and what it can be set to. It is split by zone, from a few Alpine locations where limitations are minimal, to the South where the heating is only allowed to come on 5 hours a day for a few weeks a year.

    Also note the article is from 2020 - Italy's approach this year has been to reset the regulations as 1 degree less on the the thermostat, one hour less per day, one week less on the start and end dates (broadly, I liked the idea and it is how I've set up my heating for winter)



    That seems sensible. A similar campaign here could mean no risk of blackouts. Liz Truss is an idiot.
    Liz Truss represents the end state of a weird subclass of libertarian thinking. An absolute belief that the state should not exercise any kind of control over individual citizens, not even the most minimal control of persuasive argument & influence, because to do so is to deny the liberty of individual citizens to do whatever they damn well please & take the consequences. When those consequences only affect them as individuals this is a perfectly workable moral system, but it fails utterly when collective action is required to stave off consequences that affect all of us.

    The weird thing here is that, perhaps surprisingly, in many cases all that is actually required is to explain the inevitable consequences and request co-operation & people are happy to comply, within the limits set by their individual circumstances. What could be more libertarian than that? Individuals know their personal circumstances & can do their best to act appropritely if they so choose, given the information that the goverment presents them with.

    In this case, to get through this winter without blackouts no one needs to go without heating or power: Some attention to necessity is all that’s required, as far as I can tell. Yet the government refuses to do anything at all. Madness.
    I very much agree with this analysis.
    Liz Truss strikes me as the kind of person who at the time would have attacked seatbelts as an assault on personal freedoms.
    She's an unrestrained libertarian?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    I find it amazing that Mike wrote "My view is that there is something about Liz Truss that makes it hard for her to resonate with the public"

    She appears to be vacuous and pushes policies the public hate whilst putting their mortgages through the roof.

    This really is not that hard to understand.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT:

    Do you know in 2006 an absolute majority of the country thought it would be Wrong if a Scottish person was Prime Minister. The BBC did a whole "Politics Show" about it and what a disgcrace it would be if a Scot was at the top

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/politics_show/4757329.stm

    That is NOT what the poll asked or said!!!!!!!

    There have already been a stack of Scottish Prime Ministers. At least 7 who were Scottish and more than 10 who were born in Scotland, with various PMs representing Scottish constituencies.

    The poll was asking whether a Scottish MP should be PM of the United Kingdom, which isn't at all the same question.

    Naughty boy!! ;)
    Fun fact, there have been more PMs born in both Canada and the United States than there have been in Wales.

    Edit - I'm sure this will gladden the heart of @TSE wherever he is on holiday :wink:
    Indeed.

    Heck a Welsh person has been Prime Minister of Australia more recently than we've had a Welsh UK Prime Minister, although if Mark Drakeford, the true Prince of Wales, might break that drought, if he became Labour leader.
    That is a good point I had not thought of.

    There have been more British PMs born in Canada than in Wales.
    There have been more British PMs born in America than in Wales.
    There have been more Australian than British PMs born in Wales.

    And the Scots complain about a lack of influence?
    And on a total tangent, more men have walked on the moon than the number of actors who have played James Bond ;)
    And as many Australians as Welshmen have played James Bond.
  • ydoethur said:

    Phil said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    FPT:
    How it is done elsewhere:

    https://easymilano.com/when-can-we-switch-on-the-heating-in-italy/

    Given a sizeable number of people live in communal apartments, this is a pretty broad regulation defining the date central heating can be switched on, how many hours a day it can run and what it can be set to. It is split by zone, from a few Alpine locations where limitations are minimal, to the South where the heating is only allowed to come on 5 hours a day for a few weeks a year.

    Also note the article is from 2020 - Italy's approach this year has been to reset the regulations as 1 degree less on the the thermostat, one hour less per day, one week less on the start and end dates (broadly, I liked the idea and it is how I've set up my heating for winter)



    That seems sensible. A similar campaign here could mean no risk of blackouts. Liz Truss is an idiot.
    Liz Truss represents the end state of a weird subclass of libertarian thinking. An absolute belief that the state should not exercise any kind of control over individual citizens, not even the most minimal control of persuasive argument & influence, because to do so is to deny the liberty of individual citizens to do whatever they damn well please & take the consequences. When those consequences only affect them as individuals this is a perfectly workable moral system, but it fails utterly when collective action is required to stave off consequences that affect all of us.

    The weird thing here is that, perhaps surprisingly, in many cases all that is actually required is to explain the inevitable consequences and request co-operation & people are happy to comply, within the limits set by their individual circumstances. What could be more libertarian than that? Individuals know their personal circumstances & can do their best to act appropritely if they so choose, given the information that the goverment presents them with.

    In this case, to get through this winter without blackouts no one needs to go without heating or power: Some attention to necessity is all that’s required, as far as I can tell. Yet the government refuses to do anything at all. Madness.
    I very much agree with this analysis.
    Liz Truss strikes me as the kind of person who at the time would have attacked seatbelts as an assault on personal freedoms.
    She's an unrestrained libertarian?
    Literally.
  • 148grss said:

    148grss said:

    eek said:

    148grss said:

    I just don't see the mechanism that puts Rishi in No 10 by Christmas that also doesn't implode the Conservative Party anyway? The membership just voted, and they didn't vote for Rishi. Sure, the MPs seemed to prefer him, but that wasn't enough to get him over the line. And so many big names got behind Truss in the end that, were Rishi to win, he'd have to put them all in the backbenches, stacking them with enemies.

    I also don't see how the 22 committee justifies changing the rules on the leadership election and running a new selection in under 6 months, when the argument is also that a GE can't be held now because we need a functioning government.

    Clearly the Conservative party cannot govern, they just refuse to admit that, and so much of our constitutional order is built on the assumption that politicians have a sense of shame. I can't imagine Truss being able to pass most of the things she's suggesting in the commons, and the Lords would have a good argument to make that certain things lie outside what the manifesto pledges were.

    Whilst I don't expect the turkeys to vote for Christmas, I don't see any other option than a GE sorting this out. And that lies only in Truss' hands, short of a VonC and no other government being able to form.

    I suspect the solution is a VonC followed by a new Tory party leader being selected to avoid an election.

    Although a general election with Liz selling her policies to the general public would be fun to watch as she loses the Tory party votes every time she appears on TV.
    But would enough Trussites / Johnsonites not be willing to mess with a Rishi government? If Tory unity / discipline is this shot under Truss, and Truss did beat Rishi, why should it be better if Rishi got in charge? Would his cabinet be significantly different?

    Not to mention that there is very little evidence that Rishi would have the ability to get back the popularity Truss has lost - some of the damage has already been done regarding mortgages and pensions, and Rishi seems unlikely to do anything that could change that.
    The present Cabinet is notably partisan. LizT's successor would be well-advised to appoint a more balanced Cabinet. If you look at Mrs Thatcher's first Cabinet, it is stuffed to the gills with wets and grandees. The same is true of most Prime Ministers, even Boris to an extent. So yes, Rishi (or anyone) is more likely to keep MPs onside.

    Rishi is also, of all the contenders, most market-friendly. That he publicly predicted what would happen in response to Kwasi's not-budget is the cherry on the cake.

    But most significant will be the polls. Truss is toast because the polls show most Conservative MPs losing their seats. Her successor needs to change that.
    But how can Rishi have both a coalitional cabinet, and be market / voter friendly? The fact is that the loony faction of the party have a lot of sway, and you can't ignore them, so you have to let some loons into the cabinet who will say and do loony things that either upset voters or upset the markets. Would Rishi keep anyone in this cabinet in position / promote people? Would he sack Braverman or Mogg? What could he really do that would make the markets feel comfortable - if one Tory leader can go in 6 months, why trust Rishi is a long term bet?

    I know the Tory party and their MPs only really care about their own skin, but really the party is a mess beyond the policy issues I disagree with. Cabinet is not singing from the same hymn sheet, and backbenchers are all espousing on policy positions - with most of them disagreeing with each other. The only thing they agree on is they don't want Labour in government, which now Starmer is in charge a few may actually not be that worried about either.

    The party need to lose, need to regroup and unite, and need to leave the country governed by a party that can at least govern itself. It's just such a shame that that is Starmer's Labour...
    The Cabinet as a whole does not make economic policy so the gilts market won't care if Kwasi is Minister for Paperclips. What panicked the markets was unfunded tax cuts, which threw into stark relief that our economy is circling the drain. Rishi has a plan; LizT and Kwasi have given themselves a month to try and think of one.

    And again, current polls are beyond the point where Tory MPs worry about Labour governments. Their main concern now will be their own seats.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT:

    Do you know in 2006 an absolute majority of the country thought it would be Wrong if a Scottish person was Prime Minister. The BBC did a whole "Politics Show" about it and what a disgcrace it would be if a Scot was at the top

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/politics_show/4757329.stm

    That is NOT what the poll asked or said!!!!!!!

    There have already been a stack of Scottish Prime Ministers. At least 7 who were Scottish and more than 10 who were born in Scotland, with various PMs representing Scottish constituencies.

    The poll was asking whether a Scottish MP should be PM of the United Kingdom, which isn't at all the same question.

    Naughty boy!! ;)
    Fun fact, there have been more PMs born in both Canada and the United States than there have been in Wales.

    Edit - I'm sure this will gladden the heart of @TSE wherever he is on holiday :wink:
    Indeed.

    Heck a Welsh person has been Prime Minister of Australia more recently than we've had a Welsh UK Prime Minister, although if Mark Drakeford, the true Prince of Wales, might break that drought, if he became Labour leader.
    That is a good point I had not thought of.

    There have been more British PMs born in Canada than in Wales.
    There have been more British PMs born in America than in Wales.
    There have been more Australian than British PMs born in Wales.

    And the Scots complain about a lack of influence?
    And on a total tangent, more men have walked on the moon than the number of actors who have played James Bond ;)
    Allegedly.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Does absolutely nobody on here think Truss has a point? This issue already has saturation coverage and there are other things they could spend the money on.

    It costs virtually nothing. Different messaging reaches different audiences.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT:

    Do you know in 2006 an absolute majority of the country thought it would be Wrong if a Scottish person was Prime Minister. The BBC did a whole "Politics Show" about it and what a disgcrace it would be if a Scot was at the top

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/politics_show/4757329.stm

    That is NOT what the poll asked or said!!!!!!!

    There have already been a stack of Scottish Prime Ministers. At least 7 who were Scottish and more than 10 who were born in Scotland, with various PMs representing Scottish constituencies.

    The poll was asking whether a Scottish MP should be PM of the United Kingdom, which isn't at all the same question.

    Naughty boy!! ;)
    Fun fact, there have been more PMs born in both Canada and the United States than there have been in Wales.

    Edit - I'm sure this will gladden the heart of @TSE wherever he is on holiday :wink:
    Indeed.

    Heck a Welsh person has been Prime Minister of Australia more recently than we've had a Welsh UK Prime Minister, although if Mark Drakeford, the true Prince of Wales, might break that drought, if he became Labour leader.
    That is a good point I had not thought of.

    There have been more British PMs born in Canada than in Wales.
    There have been more British PMs born in America than in Wales.
    There have been more Australian than British PMs born in Wales.

    And the Scots complain about a lack of influence?
    And on a total tangent, more men have walked on the moon than the number of actors who have played James Bond ;)
    What about than the number of actresses who have played with James Bond?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    Wouldn’t Kwarteng have designed his fiscal plan to get the thumbs up from the OBR.

    It would surely be madness to do otherwise given any further mistakes will likely mean the end of his tenure as COE .
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,772
    MaxPB said:

    Phil said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    FPT:
    How it is done elsewhere:

    https://easymilano.com/when-can-we-switch-on-the-heating-in-italy/

    Given a sizeable number of people live in communal apartments, this is a pretty broad regulation defining the date central heating can be switched on, how many hours a day it can run and what it can be set to. It is split by zone, from a few Alpine locations where limitations are minimal, to the South where the heating is only allowed to come on 5 hours a day for a few weeks a year.

    Also note the article is from 2020 - Italy's approach this year has been to reset the regulations as 1 degree less on the the thermostat, one hour less per day, one week less on the start and end dates (broadly, I liked the idea and it is how I've set up my heating for winter)



    That seems sensible. A similar campaign here could mean no risk of blackouts. Liz Truss is an idiot.
    Liz Truss represents the end state of a weird subclass of libertarian thinking. An absolute belief that the state should not exercise any kind of control over individual citizens, not even the most minimal control of persuasive argument & influence, because to do so is to deny the liberty of individual citizens to do whatever they damn well please & take the consequences. When those consequences only affect them as individuals this is a perfectly workable moral system, but it fails utterly when collective action is required to stave off consequences that affect all of us.

    The weird thing here is that, perhaps surprisingly, in many cases all that is actually required is to explain the inevitable consequences and request co-operation & people are happy to comply, within the limits set by their individual circumstances. What could be more libertarian than that? Individuals know their personal circumstances & can do their best to act appropritely if they so choose, given the information that the goverment presents them with.

    In this case, to get through this winter without blackouts no one needs to go without heating or power: Some attention to necessity is all that’s required, as far as I can tell. Yet the government refuses to do anything at all. Madness.
    Absolutely agreed mate. The actions required to ensure no blackouts are small, yet the PM is putting the whole nation at risk over an ideology that would have left people free to turn their lights on during a blackout in WW2.
    I completely agree but I think some of what is driving this is the fact that offence is taken to any guidance now (look at the energy companies sending out tips re how to stay warm without the heating on). There is a fear it will come across as patronising and give someone a platform to attack.

    FWIW I think they should just do it because what is the role of government if not to give guidance on things like this.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,363
    edited October 2022
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    German import prices up YoY by 33%, that's the worst rise since this index started.

    I think the age of European heavy industry is coming to an end and people aren't awake to it yet. Cheap energy and outsourcing national defence has driven the German economy for 30 years since reunification, neither are on the horizon now.

    We think our politicians fucked up energy investment for the last 20 years, yet it's not nearly as bad as Germany. Worse is that Germany relies far more on heavy industry than the UK, the threat out power outages means offices are shut here but people can wfh, power outages there means days of production equipment sitting idle and huge losses in national output.

    I fear that the continent hasn't yet woken up to what the end of the cheap energy age really means, neither has the UK, yet we're not as exposed due to our already small manufacturing sector.

    But if we can get both wind and tidal scaled up sufficiently we will have the advantages of not being beholden to various despots and a better balance of trade. It won't be as cheap as Russian or ME oil and gas but it will not be a disaster either.
    Compared to when gas was at its cheapest it's going to be a huge increase. Gas is also very energy dense and that has a lot of uses in industry that electrical power struggles to imitate. We need to increase electricity production by somewhere around 5-7x if we're to end our reliance on gas and oil. Excluding transport that number falls to around 3x - for the UK.

    For Germany it's a much bigger multiple of their non fossil fuel energy production because they're starting from much further back and gave higher energy use. It's legitimately hundreds of billions of Euros in renewables investment at a time when money is no longer cheap and readily available (as our government has discovered) and surging input prices.

    Another key difference is that the UK seems resolved to build nuclear at scale, Germany doesn't seem ti be reconciled to new nuclear, they're still dithering over restarting the existing reactors. That will tell a decade from now, especially if RR aren't bullshitting us about the mini reactors and build time/cost per reactor.
    Interesting, but I'm not sure why you think that Germany is starting from much further back re non-fossil fuel energy production. Last year, Germany generated 225 TWh of energy from renewables (mostly wind and solar), while the UK generated about 122 TWh. We are catching up in renewable generation, but Germany is currently still ahead of us.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Rishi would not have a majority in the Commons either, enough Trussites and Borisonians to see to that.

    Nope

    Support Rishi or they are out of a job.

    Grab them by the balls and their hearts and minds will follow...
    The problem with that analysis is that, whilst in theory it is sound, in practice the numbers may not add up.

    Realistically even in the sorts of wipe-outs we are looking at you will still end up with maybe 100-150 Tory seats. The Baxtering that shows only 2 Tories surviving is just an illustration of how that system fails as you move towards the extremes.

    So all you have to ask is, are there 40 or so of those 100 odd MPs who are from the extreme end of the Truss/Boris wing and who would be content to see the party get stuffed if it meant they were left with an ideologically pure(ish) party in opposition from which they would rebuild in their image.

    I suspect that sadly the answer to that question is yes. Although it would be interesting to run the numbers and see where the survivors are likely to be.

  • StarryStarry Posts: 110
    HYUFD said:

    Even if Truss did go if she was replaced by Rishi that would lead to civil war in the party after the membership rejected him just a month ago.

    No, the only viable alternative to Truss before the next general election who could unify the party and be more electable is Ben Wallace. With Sunak maybe brought back as Chancellor to replace Kwarteng. A Wallace government could then ensure the Cabinet represents all wings of the party. Wallace would be Howard to Truss' IDS, unlikely to win but reunifies the party

    This is absolutely correct... except it assumes Wallace is okay with leading the Party to a defeat, thereby pretty much destroying future leadership hopes.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT:

    Do you know in 2006 an absolute majority of the country thought it would be Wrong if a Scottish person was Prime Minister. The BBC did a whole "Politics Show" about it and what a disgcrace it would be if a Scot was at the top

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/politics_show/4757329.stm

    That is NOT what the poll asked or said!!!!!!!

    There have already been a stack of Scottish Prime Ministers. At least 7 who were Scottish and more than 10 who were born in Scotland, with various PMs representing Scottish constituencies.

    The poll was asking whether a Scottish MP should be PM of the United Kingdom, which isn't at all the same question.

    Naughty boy!! ;)
    Fun fact, there have been more PMs born in both Canada and the United States than there have been in Wales.

    Edit - I'm sure this will gladden the heart of @TSE wherever he is on holiday :wink:
    Indeed.

    Heck a Welsh person has been Prime Minister of Australia more recently than we've had a Welsh UK Prime Minister, although if Mark Drakeford, the true Prince of Wales, might break that drought, if he became Labour leader.
    That is a good point I had not thought of.

    There have been more British PMs born in Canada than in Wales.
    There have been more British PMs born in America than in Wales.
    There have been more Australian than British PMs born in Wales.

    And the Scots complain about a lack of influence?
    And on a total tangent, more men have walked on the moon than the number of actors who have played James Bond ;)
    What about than the number of actresses who have played with James Bond?
    That is a much higher number because, apart from Maud Adams and Maryam d'Abo each movie had a new Bond Girl
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    German import prices up YoY by 33%, that's the worst rise since this index started.

    I think the age of European heavy industry is coming to an end and people aren't awake to it yet. Cheap energy and outsourcing national defence has driven the German economy for 30 years since reunification, neither are on the horizon now.

    We think our politicians fucked up energy investment for the last 20 years, yet it's not nearly as bad as Germany. Worse is that Germany relies far more on heavy industry than the UK, the threat out power outages means offices are shut here but people can wfh, power outages there means days of production equipment sitting idle and huge losses in national output.

    I fear that the continent hasn't yet woken up to what the end of the cheap energy age really means, neither has the UK, yet we're not as exposed due to our already small manufacturing sector.

    But if we can get both wind and tidal scaled up sufficiently we will have the advantages of not being beholden to various despots and a better balance of trade. It won't be as cheap as Russian or ME oil and gas but it will not be a disaster either.
    Compared to when gas was at its cheapest it's going to be a huge increase. Gas is also very energy dense and that has a lot of uses in industry that electrical power struggles to imitate. We need to increase electricity production by somewhere around 5-7x if we're to end our reliance on gas and oil. Excluding transport that number falls to around 3x - for the UK.

    For Germany it's a much bigger multiple of their non fossil fuel energy production because they're starting from much further back and gave higher energy use. It's legitimately hundreds of billions of Euros in renewables investment at a time when money is no longer cheap and readily available (as our government has discovered) and surging input prices.

    Another key difference is that the UK seems resolved to build nuclear at scale, Germany doesn't seem ti be reconciled to new nuclear, they're still dithering over restarting the existing reactors. That will tell a decade from now, especially if RR aren't bullshitting us about the mini reactors and build time/cost per reactor.
    Interesting, but I'm not sure why you think that Germany is starting from much further back re non-fossil fuel energy production. Last year, Germany generated 225 TWh of energy from renewables (mostly wind and solar), while the UK generated about 122 TWh. We are catching up in renewable generation, but Germany is currently still ahead of us.
    And as a proportion of their total energy usage?
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT:

    Do you know in 2006 an absolute majority of the country thought it would be Wrong if a Scottish person was Prime Minister. The BBC did a whole "Politics Show" about it and what a disgcrace it would be if a Scot was at the top

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/politics_show/4757329.stm

    That is NOT what the poll asked or said!!!!!!!

    There have already been a stack of Scottish Prime Ministers. At least 7 who were Scottish and more than 10 who were born in Scotland, with various PMs representing Scottish constituencies.

    The poll was asking whether a Scottish MP should be PM of the United Kingdom, which isn't at all the same question.

    Naughty boy!! ;)
    Fun fact, there have been more PMs born in both Canada and the United States than there have been in Wales.

    Edit - I'm sure this will gladden the heart of @TSE wherever he is on holiday :wink:
    Indeed.

    Heck a Welsh person has been Prime Minister of Australia more recently than we've had a Welsh UK Prime Minister, although if Mark Drakeford, the true Prince of Wales, might break that drought, if he became Labour leader.
    That is a good point I had not thought of.

    There have been more British PMs born in Canada than in Wales.
    There have been more British PMs born in America than in Wales.
    There have been more Australian than British PMs born in Wales.

    And the Scots complain about a lack of influence?
    And on a total tangent, more men have walked on the moon than the number of actors who have played James Bond ;)
    Allegedly.
    Well




  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,828
    edited October 2022
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    FPT:
    How it is done elsewhere:

    https://easymilano.com/when-can-we-switch-on-the-heating-in-italy/

    Given a sizeable number of people live in communal apartments, this is a pretty broad regulation defining the date central heating can be switched on, how many hours a day it can run and what it can be set to. It is split by zone, from a few Alpine locations where limitations are minimal, to the South where the heating is only allowed to come on 5 hours a day for a few weeks a year.

    Also note the article is from 2020 - Italy's approach this year has been to reset the regulations as 1 degree less on the the thermostat, one hour less per day, one week less on the start and end dates (broadly, I liked the idea and it is how I've set up my heating for winter)



    That seems sensible. A similar campaign here could mean no risk of blackouts. Liz Truss is an idiot.
    I think there is an aversion to the state telling you how to behave at play. I keep seeing posters suggest that the cost pressure has been removed from energy costs this winter. This is simply not true - its been heavily mitigated for sure, but most folk are seeing energy bills go up. At the same time the media is all over this with 'how reduce your bills' stories. Thats what the people pay attention too - Phil and Holly, or the One Show, not government broadcasts.

    People will be taking action to save money this winter and this will help reduce consumption, all without the state having to do anything.
    I think we need to look at this just as we did the first lockdown. Clear and consistent messaging from the government will help keep the lights on this winter (and probably the following two). Hoping that enough people act voluntarily without proper advice or from non official advice will result in rolling blackouts and interruptions in gas supply for households.

    The downside to doing nothing is potentially very large and the upside is non-existent. Liz Truss is putting the nation at risk for some idiotic ideology. Even I supported the first lockdown, just because there were so many unknowns. This is similar, except we know that normal usage by households and industry will result in blackouts. Even basic advice in when in the day or night to run dishwashers and washing machines or how to save electricity when using the oven (tip - don't use the fan assist, put the temperature up by 10 degrees vs the instructions and cut the cooking time a bit). These are basic information that loads of people just don't know, giving people the tools to help themselves and the nation is a win/win.
    I already felt that there is no need for the Government to be getting involved given that the media and the public is wall-to-wall talking about all this already.

    But any comparisons with Lockdown absolutely reinforce the notion that the Government should not get involved. Lockdown was an awful accumulation of power by the state that was hard to roll back on and anything like that again is to absolutely be avoided. Getting away from the idea that the state is the answer to all life's problems is important.

    Quite frankly, the public and media are full of little else but this already. Everyone I know is rationally doing what they can anyway. That is what we need, rational communication and people sensibly doing sensible things, let experts talk and communicate good ideas, no need for the state to be doing it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    IshmaelZ said:

    Does absolutely nobody on here think Truss has a point? This issue already has saturation coverage and there are other things they could spend the money on.

    It costs virtually nothing. Different messaging reaches different audiences.
    Treating £15m as virtually nothing is how you end up with ballooning department budgets.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Any sensible preparations for winter power cuts ahead? Buying a couple of decent usb torches and a usb reading light. A chance to catch up on some reading.

    What about power back ups for PCs? Seems they don't last very long and guess home wifi wont work either so benefit would be safely closing down rather than keeping it online?

    Anything I can do for fridge/freezer?

    Blankets and jumpers.

    Torch for reading light.

    Portable camping gas stove and a stove kettle - most regular gas cookers won’t run with no power, they have a safety cutout.

    For a desktop PC, get a UPS.

    You can get a device called an inverter, that will turn your car engine into a generator and give 240v. It’ll be enough to run the PC, wifi router, and chargers for phones, laptops, torches etc
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/LVYUAN-Inverter-Converter-Cigarette-Lighter/dp/B08PS1LKCP/
    Don’t run the inverter without the engine running (it will kill the battery in minutes!), make sure your car can’t be stolen if left with the engine running, and don’t run out of petrol!

    Fridge/freezer not much, but a modern one will keep cold for a couple of days if you don’t open it. You could run it from the inverter for a bit, if nothing else is plugged in.

    Get a generator if you really need power for more than just emergencies, it’s more efficient than using the car!
    The cigarette lighter in a car is usually on a 10A fuse so 120W before any losses in the inverter. Useless.

    If you're going to do it you need something like a 1000W inverter than can draw 100A+ (they are usually fused at 150-200A) from the battery.
    Yes, if you’re gonna plug your fridge in, use the battery cables provided and not the cigarette lighter, and don’t leave it running long.

    They are good for laptops and routers though, which is what you might need in an emergency,
    Hyundai Ioniq does 3.6kW V2L. That's what you really want!
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    David Gauke in the New Statesman

    https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2022/10/david-gauke-conservatives-trapped-what-now

    The problem is that unless Boris is removed from contention - he's likely to pop up.

    So expect Truss to now want Bozo kept in place as it makes removing her harder.
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    FPT:
    How it is done elsewhere:

    https://easymilano.com/when-can-we-switch-on-the-heating-in-italy/

    Given a sizeable number of people live in communal apartments, this is a pretty broad regulation defining the date central heating can be switched on, how many hours a day it can run and what it can be set to. It is split by zone, from a few Alpine locations where limitations are minimal, to the South where the heating is only allowed to come on 5 hours a day for a few weeks a year.

    Also note the article is from 2020 - Italy's approach this year has been to reset the regulations as 1 degree less on the the thermostat, one hour less per day, one week less on the start and end dates (broadly, I liked the idea and it is how I've set up my heating for winter)



    That seems sensible. A similar campaign here could mean no risk of blackouts. Liz Truss is an idiot.
    I think there is an aversion to the state telling you how to behave at play. I keep seeing posters suggest that the cost pressure has been removed from energy costs this winter. This is simply not true - its been heavily mitigated for sure, but most folk are seeing energy bills go up. At the same time the media is all over this with 'how reduce your bills' stories. Thats what the people pay attention too - Phil and Holly, or the One Show, not government broadcasts.

    People will be taking action to save money this winter and this will help reduce consumption, all without the state having to do anything.
    I think we need to look at this just as we did the first lockdown. Clear and consistent messaging from the government will help keep the lights on this winter (and probably the following two). Hoping that enough people act voluntarily without proper advice or from non official advice will result in rolling blackouts and interruptions in gas supply for households.

    The downside to doing nothing is potentially very large and the upside is non-existent. Liz Truss is putting the nation at risk for some idiotic ideology. Even I supported the first lockdown, just because there were so many unknowns. This is similar, except we know that normal usage by households and industry will result in blackouts. Even basic advice in when in the day or night to run dishwashers and washing machines or how to save electricity when using the oven (tip - don't use the fan assist, put the temperature up by 10 degrees vs the instructions and cut the cooking time a bit). These are basic information that loads of people just don't know, giving people the tools to help themselves and the nation is a win/win.

    It's not even that.

    There are good and bad ways of saving energy. See the stories of people getting food poisoning because they have switched their fridges off.

    It would be lovely to think that people remember their GCSE physics (it's all about heat, everything else is cheap; keeping warm is all about insulation; the more targeted the heating is, the
    less waste) but that's naive.

    And even I don't think that hypothermia or worse are suitable consequences for not paying attention in physics lessons.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    Phil said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    FPT:
    How it is done elsewhere:

    https://easymilano.com/when-can-we-switch-on-the-heating-in-italy/

    Given a sizeable number of people live in communal apartments, this is a pretty broad regulation defining the date central heating can be switched on, how many hours a day it can run and what it can be set to. It is split by zone, from a few Alpine locations where limitations are minimal, to the South where the heating is only allowed to come on 5 hours a day for a few weeks a year.

    Also note the article is from 2020 - Italy's approach this year has been to reset the regulations as 1 degree less on the the thermostat, one hour less per day, one week less on the start and end dates (broadly, I liked the idea and it is how I've set up my heating for winter)



    That seems sensible. A similar campaign here could mean no risk of blackouts. Liz Truss is an idiot.
    Liz Truss represents the end state of a weird subclass of libertarian thinking. An absolute belief that the state should not exercise any kind of control over individual citizens, not even the most minimal control of persuasive argument & influence, because to do so is to deny the liberty of individual citizens to do whatever they damn well please & take the consequences. When those consequences only affect them as individuals this is a perfectly workable moral system, but it fails utterly when collective action is required to stave off consequences that affect all of us.

    The weird thing here is that, perhaps surprisingly, in many cases all that is actually required is to explain the inevitable consequences and request co-operation & people are happy to comply, within the limits set by their individual circumstances. What could be more libertarian than that? Individuals know their personal circumstances & can do their best to act appropritely if they so choose, given the information that the goverment presents them with.

    In this case, to get through this winter without blackouts no one needs to go without heating or power: Some attention to necessity is all that’s required, as far as I can tell. Yet the government refuses to do anything at all. Madness.
    Yep, the line in her conf speech she delivered with the most relish and authenticity was this one -

    "I have no interest in looking over people's shoulder to see if they're buying 2 for 1 deals in the supermarket."

    Sounds a bit of a throwaway but it wasn't. It says a lot about the brain chemistry that has somehow wriggled into government.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT:

    Do you know in 2006 an absolute majority of the country thought it would be Wrong if a Scottish person was Prime Minister. The BBC did a whole "Politics Show" about it and what a disgcrace it would be if a Scot was at the top

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/politics_show/4757329.stm

    That is NOT what the poll asked or said!!!!!!!

    There have already been a stack of Scottish Prime Ministers. At least 7 who were Scottish and more than 10 who were born in Scotland, with various PMs representing Scottish constituencies.

    The poll was asking whether a Scottish MP should be PM of the United Kingdom, which isn't at all the same question.

    Naughty boy!! ;)
    Fun fact, there have been more PMs born in both Canada and the United States than there have been in Wales.

    Edit - I'm sure this will gladden the heart of @TSE wherever he is on holiday :wink:
    Indeed.

    Heck a Welsh person has been Prime Minister of Australia more recently than we've had a Welsh UK Prime Minister, although if Mark Drakeford, the true Prince of Wales, might break that drought, if he became Labour leader.
    That is a good point I had not thought of.

    There have been more British PMs born in Canada than in Wales.
    There have been more British PMs born in America than in Wales.
    There have been more Australian than British PMs born in Wales.

    And the Scots complain about a lack of influence?
    And on a total tangent, more men have walked on the moon than the number of actors who have played James Bond ;)
    And as many Australians as Welshmen have played James Bond.
    James Bondi
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Starry said:

    HYUFD said:

    Even if Truss did go if she was replaced by Rishi that would lead to civil war in the party after the membership rejected him just a month ago.

    No, the only viable alternative to Truss before the next general election who could unify the party and be more electable is Ben Wallace. With Sunak maybe brought back as Chancellor to replace Kwarteng. A Wallace government could then ensure the Cabinet represents all wings of the party. Wallace would be Howard to Truss' IDS, unlikely to win but reunifies the party

    This is absolutely correct... except it assumes Wallace is okay with leading the Party to a defeat, thereby pretty much destroying future leadership hopes.
    Wallace doesn't appear ever to have been desperate to be leader - but has said recently he'd be prepared to run.
    I don't know much about his, by my guess would be the option of being PM - even if it's only for a couple of years - is not unattractive even in these circumstances.
    Expectations are exceedingly low, and he would at least allow experienced ministers to be brought back into government. There's not much downside from where the Tories are now, and potentially a fair amount of upside.
  • MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    German import prices up YoY by 33%, that's the worst rise since this index started.

    I think the age of European heavy industry is coming to an end and people aren't awake to it yet. Cheap energy and outsourcing national defence has driven the German economy for 30 years since reunification, neither are on the horizon now.

    We think our politicians fucked up energy investment for the last 20 years, yet it's not nearly as bad as Germany. Worse is that Germany relies far more on heavy industry than the UK, the threat out power outages means offices are shut here but people can wfh, power outages there means days of production equipment sitting idle and huge losses in national output.

    I fear that the continent hasn't yet woken up to what the end of the cheap energy age really means, neither has the UK, yet we're not as exposed due to our already small manufacturing sector.

    But if we can get both wind and tidal scaled up sufficiently we will have the advantages of not being beholden to various despots and a better balance of trade. It won't be as cheap as Russian or ME oil and gas but it will not be a disaster either.
    Compared to when gas was at its cheapest it's going to be a huge increase. Gas is also very energy dense and that has a lot of uses in industry that electrical power struggles to imitate. We need to increase electricity production by somewhere around 5-7x if we're to end our reliance on gas and oil. Excluding transport that number falls to around 3x - for the UK.

    For Germany it's a much bigger multiple of their non fossil fuel energy production because they're starting from much further back and gave higher energy use. It's legitimately hundreds of billions of Euros in renewables investment at a time when money is no longer cheap and readily available (as our government has discovered) and surging input prices.

    Another key difference is that the UK seems resolved to build nuclear at scale, Germany doesn't seem ti be reconciled to new nuclear, they're still dithering over restarting the existing reactors. That will tell a decade from now, especially if RR aren't bullshitting us about the mini reactors and build time/cost per reactor.
    Interesting, but I'm not sure why you think that Germany is starting from much further back re non-fossil fuel energy production. Last year, Germany generated 225 TWh of energy from renewables (mostly wind and solar), while the UK generated about 122 TWh. We are catching up in renewable generation, but Germany is currently still ahead of us.
    In terms of fossil fuel contribution to our economies we are about neck and neck. In 2021 75% of German energy came from fossil fuels whilst 78% of the UK supply was fossil fuels. We both have a very long way to go.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    FPT:
    How it is done elsewhere:

    https://easymilano.com/when-can-we-switch-on-the-heating-in-italy/

    Given a sizeable number of people live in communal apartments, this is a pretty broad regulation defining the date central heating can be switched on, how many hours a day it can run and what it can be set to. It is split by zone, from a few Alpine locations where limitations are minimal, to the South where the heating is only allowed to come on 5 hours a day for a few weeks a year.

    Also note the article is from 2020 - Italy's approach this year has been to reset the regulations as 1 degree less on the the thermostat, one hour less per day, one week less on the start and end dates (broadly, I liked the idea and it is how I've set up my heating for winter)



    That seems sensible. A similar campaign here could mean no risk of blackouts. Liz Truss is an idiot.
    I think there is an aversion to the state telling you how to behave at play. I keep seeing posters suggest that the cost pressure has been removed from energy costs this winter. This is simply not true - its been heavily mitigated for sure, but most folk are seeing energy bills go up. At the same time the media is all over this with 'how reduce your bills' stories. Thats what the people pay attention too - Phil and Holly, or the One Show, not government broadcasts.

    People will be taking action to save money this winter and this will help reduce consumption, all without the state having to do anything.
    I think we need to look at this just as we did the first lockdown. Clear and consistent messaging from the government will help keep the lights on this winter (and probably the following two). Hoping that enough people act voluntarily without proper advice or from non official advice will result in rolling blackouts and interruptions in gas supply for households.

    The downside to doing nothing is potentially very large and the upside is non-existent. Liz Truss is putting the nation at risk for some idiotic ideology. Even I supported the first lockdown, just because there were so many unknowns. This is similar, except we know that normal usage by households and industry will result in blackouts. Even basic advice in when in the day or night to run dishwashers and washing machines or how to save electricity when using the oven (tip - don't use the fan assist, put the temperature up by 10 degrees vs the instructions and cut the cooking time a bit). These are basic information that loads of people just don't know, giving people the tools to help themselves and the nation is a win/win.
    Why shouldn't you use the fan assist?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    IshmaelZ said:

    Does absolutely nobody on here think Truss has a point? This issue already has saturation coverage and there are other things they could spend the money on.

    It costs virtually nothing. Different messaging reaches different audiences.
    Treating £15m as virtually nothing is how you end up with ballooning department budgets.
    In the scheme of things £15m to ensure you have a decent campaign slogan and a proper message as to what you can and can't do to save energy is an absolute bargain.

    It would also stop people doing stupid things like switching Fridges off.
  • kinabalu said:

    Phil said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    FPT:
    How it is done elsewhere:

    https://easymilano.com/when-can-we-switch-on-the-heating-in-italy/

    Given a sizeable number of people live in communal apartments, this is a pretty broad regulation defining the date central heating can be switched on, how many hours a day it can run and what it can be set to. It is split by zone, from a few Alpine locations where limitations are minimal, to the South where the heating is only allowed to come on 5 hours a day for a few weeks a year.

    Also note the article is from 2020 - Italy's approach this year has been to reset the regulations as 1 degree less on the the thermostat, one hour less per day, one week less on the start and end dates (broadly, I liked the idea and it is how I've set up my heating for winter)



    That seems sensible. A similar campaign here could mean no risk of blackouts. Liz Truss is an idiot.
    Liz Truss represents the end state of a weird subclass of libertarian thinking. An absolute belief that the state should not exercise any kind of control over individual citizens, not even the most minimal control of persuasive argument & influence, because to do so is to deny the liberty of individual citizens to do whatever they damn well please & take the consequences. When those consequences only affect them as individuals this is a perfectly workable moral system, but it fails utterly when collective action is required to stave off consequences that affect all of us.

    The weird thing here is that, perhaps surprisingly, in many cases all that is actually required is to explain the inevitable consequences and request co-operation & people are happy to comply, within the limits set by their individual circumstances. What could be more libertarian than that? Individuals know their personal circumstances & can do their best to act appropritely if they so choose, given the information that the goverment presents them with.

    In this case, to get through this winter without blackouts no one needs to go without heating or power: Some attention to necessity is all that’s required, as far as I can tell. Yet the government refuses to do anything at all. Madness.
    Yep, the line in her conf speech she delivered with the most relish and authenticity was this one -

    "I have no interest in looking over people's shoulder to see if they're buying 2 for 1 deals in the supermarket."

    Sounds a bit of a throwaway but it wasn't. It says a lot about the brain chemistry that has somehow wriggled into government.
    Yes, its good isn't it?

    The state should be doing that which it needs to do, and ideally doing it well. Do less, but do it better.

    The state doesn't need to be pissing about issuing decrees about 2 for 1 deals etc
  • ydoethur said:

    Phil said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    FPT:
    How it is done elsewhere:

    https://easymilano.com/when-can-we-switch-on-the-heating-in-italy/

    Given a sizeable number of people live in communal apartments, this is a pretty broad regulation defining the date central heating can be switched on, how many hours a day it can run and what it can be set to. It is split by zone, from a few Alpine locations where limitations are minimal, to the South where the heating is only allowed to come on 5 hours a day for a few weeks a year.

    Also note the article is from 2020 - Italy's approach this year has been to reset the regulations as 1 degree less on the the thermostat, one hour less per day, one week less on the start and end dates (broadly, I liked the idea and it is how I've set up my heating for winter)



    That seems sensible. A similar campaign here could mean no risk of blackouts. Liz Truss is an idiot.
    Liz Truss represents the end state of a weird subclass of libertarian thinking. An absolute belief that the state should not exercise any kind of control over individual citizens, not even the most minimal control of persuasive argument & influence, because to do so is to deny the liberty of individual citizens to do whatever they damn well please & take the consequences. When those consequences only affect them as individuals this is a perfectly workable moral system, but it fails utterly when collective action is required to stave off consequences that affect all of us.

    The weird thing here is that, perhaps surprisingly, in many cases all that is actually required is to explain the inevitable consequences and request co-operation & people are happy to comply, within the limits set by their individual circumstances. What could be more libertarian than that? Individuals know their personal circumstances & can do their best to act appropritely if they so choose, given the information that the goverment presents them with.

    In this case, to get through this winter without blackouts no one needs to go without heating or power: Some attention to necessity is all that’s required, as far as I can tell. Yet the government refuses to do anything at all. Madness.
    I very much agree with this analysis.
    Liz Truss strikes me as the kind of person who at the time would have attacked seatbelts as an assault on personal freedoms.
    She's an unrestrained libertarian?
    It seems that she and Farage might form some sort of bond - age being no limit of course. :wink:
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    edited October 2022
    Favourite pub quiz question: Who was the first British actor to play the character James Bond?

    Bob Holness - yes, Blockbusters guy - in a 1956 South African radio adaptation of Moonraker.
    https://www.007james.com/articles/who_played_james_bond.php
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    The other problem for Truss is that she can't whip her MPs


  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    - "Should we all be trying to use less energy?"

    - "We are not sending that out as a message."

    This man is the CLIMATE MINISTER.

    https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1578278157299359744
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    nico679 said:

    Wouldn’t Kwarteng have designed his fiscal plan to get the thumbs up from the OBR.

    It would surely be madness to do otherwise given any further mistakes will likely mean the end of his tenure as COE .

    The whole reason he was bypassing the OBR was because he knew his plans just don't work out when the OBR starts looking.

    Hint the OBR would look at the growth forecast and expect something more than

    Tax cuts ->????? -> x% growth -> y% more tax

    Which is what Kwarteng's plans consist of...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    eek said:

    David Gauke in the New Statesman

    https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2022/10/david-gauke-conservatives-trapped-what-now

    The problem is that unless Boris is removed from contention - he's likely to pop up.

    So expect Truss to now want Bozo kept in place as it makes removing her harder.

    Truss could remove the whip. Problem solved
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    The pro-Russian media game is just crap.

    https://twitter.com/Byron_Wan/status/1578026548879245314
    Phoenix TV reporter Lu Yuguang 卢宇光 posted a video on Douyin on Sep 29 showing “debris” of Ukrainian HIMARS destroyed by Russian army (00:35-00:49). It turns out the footage was lifted from “Jump Boost Garage” channel on YouTube/TikTok and spliced into Lu’s clip.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Nigelb said:

    The pro-Russian media game is just crap.

    https://twitter.com/Byron_Wan/status/1578026548879245314
    Phoenix TV reporter Lu Yuguang 卢宇光 posted a video on Douyin on Sep 29 showing “debris” of Ukrainian HIMARS destroyed by Russian army (00:35-00:49). It turns out the footage was lifted from “Jump Boost Garage” channel on YouTube/TikTok and spliced into Lu’s clip.

    Did they get the idea from that video game meme we had a few days ago?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    Scott_xP said:

    eek said:

    David Gauke in the New Statesman

    https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2022/10/david-gauke-conservatives-trapped-what-now

    The problem is that unless Boris is removed from contention - he's likely to pop up.

    So expect Truss to now want Bozo kept in place as it makes removing her harder.

    Truss could remove the whip. Problem solved
    That would require getting Truss to join the plot to remove her.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    eek said:

    nico679 said:

    Wouldn’t Kwarteng have designed his fiscal plan to get the thumbs up from the OBR.

    It would surely be madness to do otherwise given any further mistakes will likely mean the end of his tenure as COE .

    The whole reason he was bypassing the OBR was because he knew his plans just don't work out when the OBR starts looking.

    Hint the OBR would look at the growth forecast and expect something more than

    Tax cuts ->????? -> x% growth -> y% more tax

    Which is what Kwarteng's plans consist of...
    Given the market reaction surely he can’t have a situation where the OBR trashes his fiscal plan . Surely he’d have to go .
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    edited October 2022
    Nigelb said:

    The pro-Russian media game is just crap.

    https://twitter.com/Byron_Wan/status/1578026548879245314
    Phoenix TV reporter Lu Yuguang 卢宇光 posted a video on Douyin on Sep 29 showing “debris” of Ukrainian HIMARS destroyed by Russian army (00:35-00:49). It turns out the footage was lifted from “Jump Boost Garage” channel on YouTube/TikTok and spliced into Lu’s clip.

    But perhaps not as bad as that of Herschel Walker's backers...

    “I’m going to vote Herschel Walker,” said one Georgia-based Republican consultant. “I don’t care if he performed an abortion himself.”

    The latest Herschel scandal doesn’t look great. But some Republicans are sticking with him.

    https://twitter.com/AshleyRParker/status/1578169373583413248
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    Not sure it has been mentioned on here, but it is official now.

    Aaron Bell has joined the government as PPS to Brandon Lewis and his MOJ team.

    https://twitter.com/BrandonLewis/status/1577942225694113792

    All that toadying makes sense. I hope it's worth being associated to this rabble of the government for him. Aaron has definitely take a hit to his reputation over the last few weeks.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    Not sure it has been mentioned on here, but it is official now.

    Aaron Bell has joined the government as PPS to Brandon Lewis and his MOJ team.

    https://twitter.com/BrandonLewis/status/1577942225694113792

    Congratulations Aaron!
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Does absolutely nobody on here think Truss has a point? This issue already has saturation coverage and there are other things they could spend the money on.

    It costs virtually nothing. Different messaging reaches different audiences.
    Treating £15m as virtually nothing is how you end up with ballooning department budgets.
    In the scheme of things £15m to ensure you have a decent campaign slogan and a proper message as to what you can and can't do to save energy is an absolute bargain.

    It would also stop people doing stupid things like switching Fridges off.
    It's an eminently sensible thing to do, with fairly easy-to-calculate ROI. £15m is still quite a lot to spend, but if you think mortgage rate inflation is bad, you should see advertising media inflation - especially TV. But as public information campaigns go, it's a no-brainer - and far cheaper than rolling blackouts, with potential longer-term benefits too in terms of creating good energy habits.
  • Oooh.


  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080
    Nigelb said:

    The pro-Russian media game is just crap.

    https://twitter.com/Byron_Wan/status/1578026548879245314
    Phoenix TV reporter Lu Yuguang 卢宇光 posted a video on Douyin on Sep 29 showing “debris” of Ukrainian HIMARS destroyed by Russian army (00:35-00:49). It turns out the footage was lifted from “Jump Boost Garage” channel on YouTube/TikTok and spliced into Lu’s clip.

    Apparently they're showing footage of a recent Russian missile attack on Zaporizhzhia on Russian TV, but saying that it's a Ukrainian attack on Donetsk.

    Easy to laugh at on twitter, but how many Russians will see it and be convinced? Probably a lot of people in Africa and India will see it and be convinced, too.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    Not sure it has been mentioned on here, but it is official now.

    Aaron Bell has joined the government as PPS to Brandon Lewis and his MOJ team.

    https://twitter.com/BrandonLewis/status/1577942225694113792

    Ministry of Justice - so partly responsible for trying to fix the mess in the Justice system.

    Something that money could easily fix if only the money was available.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    The pro-Russian media game is just crap.

    https://twitter.com/Byron_Wan/status/1578026548879245314
    Phoenix TV reporter Lu Yuguang 卢宇光 posted a video on Douyin on Sep 29 showing “debris” of Ukrainian HIMARS destroyed by Russian army (00:35-00:49). It turns out the footage was lifted from “Jump Boost Garage” channel on YouTube/TikTok and spliced into Lu’s clip.

    Did they get the idea from that video game meme we had a few days ago?
    I was hoping we'd forgotten that. :blush:
  • glwglw Posts: 9,871

    Germany is in a very poor place and Merkel's legacy is turning out to be a disaster for Germany with her idiotic decisions on nuclear power and her closeness to Russia

    In other news the one pleasing report this morning is that Truss and Macron got on very well with agreement to move forward together on energy security and the channel crossings and other related matters

    It is also expected a deal between the UK and EU re Northern Ireland is near and that too would be welcome

    It's amazing how the view of Merkel has changed in a year, from one of the great post-war European leaders, to one of the worst. Boy did she get out at the right time. I expect that the history books will be very critical of Merkel.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Oooh.


    Should be an expulsion from BPC offence trailing polls.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,239
    edited October 2022

    Any sensible preparations for winter power cuts ahead? Buying a couple of decent usb torches and a usb reading light. A chance to catch up on some reading.

    What about power back ups for PCs? Seems they don't last very long and guess home wifi wont work either so benefit would be safely closing down rather than keeping it online?

    Anything I can do for fridge/freezer?

    Just FYI for everyone here: Some ikea LED desk lamps are actually USB powered - they come with a USB charger & the power cable has a USB plug on the end. You can plug them into a USB powerbank & get hours & hours of light out of them - they’re only 3W. This is one example: https://www.ikea.com/gb/en/p/harte-led-work-lamp-white-silver-colour-10527247/ . I suspect any IKEA lamp that is listed as requiring 5V power fits this category. Something like this is a much better idea than candles, which are a fire risk. Especially so given that we’re not really used to using candles as a light source these days.

    On computers: Yes, the point of a small PSU is mostly to give you enough time for a clean shutdown. You’d need a large battery to cover a three hour blackout for a desktop. Switch to a laptop & keep it fully charged?

    Keep the fridge & freezer closed during a blackout if you can - opening the door lets a lot of heat in (not quite as important for chest freezers - you don’t dump the cold air out of those by opening the top).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    MaxPB said:

    Not sure it has been mentioned on here, but it is official now.

    Aaron Bell has joined the government as PPS to Brandon Lewis and his MOJ team.

    https://twitter.com/BrandonLewis/status/1577942225694113792

    All that toadying makes sense. I hope it's worth being associated to this rabble of the government for him. Aaron has definitely take a hit to his reputation over the last few weeks.
    Given the shower of shit in team Truss, it's a questionable choice.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    kinabalu said:

    Phil said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    FPT:
    How it is done elsewhere:

    https://easymilano.com/when-can-we-switch-on-the-heating-in-italy/

    Given a sizeable number of people live in communal apartments, this is a pretty broad regulation defining the date central heating can be switched on, how many hours a day it can run and what it can be set to. It is split by zone, from a few Alpine locations where limitations are minimal, to the South where the heating is only allowed to come on 5 hours a day for a few weeks a year.

    Also note the article is from 2020 - Italy's approach this year has been to reset the regulations as 1 degree less on the the thermostat, one hour less per day, one week less on the start and end dates (broadly, I liked the idea and it is how I've set up my heating for winter)



    That seems sensible. A similar campaign here could mean no risk of blackouts. Liz Truss is an idiot.
    Liz Truss represents the end state of a weird subclass of libertarian thinking. An absolute belief that the state should not exercise any kind of control over individual citizens, not even the most minimal control of persuasive argument & influence, because to do so is to deny the liberty of individual citizens to do whatever they damn well please & take the consequences. When those consequences only affect them as individuals this is a perfectly workable moral system, but it fails utterly when collective action is required to stave off consequences that affect all of us.

    The weird thing here is that, perhaps surprisingly, in many cases all that is actually required is to explain the inevitable consequences and request co-operation & people are happy to comply, within the limits set by their individual circumstances. What could be more libertarian than that? Individuals know their personal circumstances & can do their best to act appropritely if they so choose, given the information that the goverment presents them with.

    In this case, to get through this winter without blackouts no one needs to go without heating or power: Some attention to necessity is all that’s required, as far as I can tell. Yet the government refuses to do anything at all. Madness.
    Yep, the line in her conf speech she delivered with the most relish and authenticity was this one -

    "I have no interest in looking over people's shoulder to see if they're buying 2 for 1 deals in the supermarket."

    Sounds a bit of a throwaway but it wasn't. It says a lot about the brain chemistry that has somehow wriggled into government.
    Yes, its good isn't it?

    The state should be doing that which it needs to do, and ideally doing it well. Do less, but do it better.

    The state doesn't need to be pissing about issuing decrees about 2 for 1 deals etc
    It's good if you share the libertarian fringe mindset, yes.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    Nigelb said:

    The pro-Russian media game is just crap.

    https://twitter.com/Byron_Wan/status/1578026548879245314
    Phoenix TV reporter Lu Yuguang 卢宇光 posted a video on Douyin on Sep 29 showing “debris” of Ukrainian HIMARS destroyed by Russian army (00:35-00:49). It turns out the footage was lifted from “Jump Boost Garage” channel on YouTube/TikTok and spliced into Lu’s clip.

    Meanwhile, in the real world:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1578262947150938113

    “Re-purposed captured Russian equipment now makes up a large proportion of Ukraine’s military hardware. Ukraine has likely captured at least 440 Russian Main Battle Tanks, and around 650 other armoured vehicles since the invasion. Over half of Ukraine’s currently fielded tank fleet potentially consists of captured vehicles.

    “The failure of Russian crews to destroy intact equipment before withdrawing or surrendering highlights their poor state of training and low levels of battle discipline. With Russian formations under severe strain in several sectors and increasingly demoralised troops, Russia will likely continue to lose heavy weaponry.”
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    edited October 2022
    Just reading the comments here, with people planning how best to conserve energy and the temps in their fridges and freezers should blackouts happen come winter, I'm just glad that we didn't return to a rerun of the winter of discontent with Corbyn, and instead voted for a winter of discontent with the Tories...
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Any sensible preparations for winter power cuts ahead? Buying a couple of decent usb torches and a usb reading light. A chance to catch up on some reading.

    What about power back ups for PCs? Seems they don't last very long and guess home wifi wont work either so benefit would be safely closing down rather than keeping it online?

    Anything I can do for fridge/freezer?

    Blankets and jumpers.

    Torch for reading light.

    Portable camping gas stove and a stove kettle - most regular gas cookers won’t run with no power, they have a safety cutout.

    For a desktop PC, get a UPS.

    You can get a device called an inverter, that will turn your car engine into a generator and give 240v. It’ll be enough to run the PC, wifi router, and chargers for phones, laptops, torches etc
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/LVYUAN-Inverter-Converter-Cigarette-Lighter/dp/B08PS1LKCP/
    Don’t run the inverter without the engine running (it will kill the battery in minutes!), make sure your car can’t be stolen if left with the engine running, and don’t run out of petrol!

    Fridge/freezer not much, but a modern one will keep cold for a couple of days if you don’t open it. You could run it from the inverter for a bit, if nothing else is plugged in.

    Get a generator if you really need power for more than just emergencies, it’s more efficient than using the car!
    The cigarette lighter in a car is usually on a 10A fuse so 120W before any losses in the inverter. Useless.

    If you're going to do it you need something like a 1000W inverter than can draw 100A+ (they are usually fused at 150-200A) from the battery.
    Yes, if you’re gonna plug your fridge in, use the battery cables provided and not the cigarette lighter, and don’t leave it running long.

    They are good for laptops and routers though, which is what you might need in an emergency,
    Hyundai Ioniq does 3.6kW V2L. That's what you really want!
    I have Nissan Leaf which is theoretically capable of powering our home for a couple of days from a full charge, but the reversible charger required to do so seems to be either prohibitively expensive or unavailable, depending where I look. Granted, it has to be a pretty complex bit of kit to handle switching cleanly between mains and car power.
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    FPT:
    How it is done elsewhere:

    https://easymilano.com/when-can-we-switch-on-the-heating-in-italy/

    Given a sizeable number of people live in communal apartments, this is a pretty broad regulation defining the date central heating can be switched on, how many hours a day it can run and what it can be set to. It is split by zone, from a few Alpine locations where limitations are minimal, to the South where the heating is only allowed to come on 5 hours a day for a few weeks a year.

    Also note the article is from 2020 - Italy's approach this year has been to reset the regulations as 1 degree less on the the thermostat, one hour less per day, one week less on the start and end dates (broadly, I liked the idea and it is how I've set up my heating for winter)



    That seems sensible. A similar campaign here could mean no risk of blackouts. Liz Truss is an idiot.
    I think there is an aversion to the state telling you how to behave at play. I keep seeing posters suggest that the cost pressure has been removed from energy costs this winter. This is simply not true - its been heavily mitigated for sure, but most folk are seeing energy bills go up. At the same time the media is all over this with 'how reduce your bills' stories. Thats what the people pay attention too - Phil and Holly, or the One Show, not government broadcasts.

    People will be taking action to save money this winter and this will help reduce consumption, all without the state having to do anything.
    I think we need to look at this just as we did the first lockdown. Clear and consistent messaging from the government will help keep the lights on this winter (and probably the following two). Hoping that enough people act voluntarily without proper advice or from non official advice will result in rolling blackouts and interruptions in gas supply for households.

    The downside to doing nothing is potentially very large and the upside is non-existent. Liz Truss is putting the nation at risk for some idiotic ideology. Even I supported the first lockdown, just because there were so many unknowns. This is similar, except we know that normal usage by households and industry will result in blackouts. Even basic advice in when in the day or night to run dishwashers and washing machines or how to save electricity when using the oven (tip - don't use the fan assist, put the temperature up by 10 degrees vs the instructions and cut the cooking time a bit). These are basic information that loads of people just don't know, giving people the tools to help themselves and the nation is a win/win.
    Why shouldn't you use the fan assist?
    On that topic, I'm a big fan (no pun intended) of air fryers, my wife and I have used an air fryer for about the last 12 years and do much of our cooking in that. Unless its a big, bulky meal, we rarely need to turn on our oven as a result.

    An air fryer is very fan assisted and uses considerably less electricity than a conventional oven and cooks quicker too.

    Ours is quite a large one so can cook a meal for a family of 4 in the air fryer, but it still uses much less energy than a conventional oven.
  • kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Phil said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    FPT:
    How it is done elsewhere:

    https://easymilano.com/when-can-we-switch-on-the-heating-in-italy/

    Given a sizeable number of people live in communal apartments, this is a pretty broad regulation defining the date central heating can be switched on, how many hours a day it can run and what it can be set to. It is split by zone, from a few Alpine locations where limitations are minimal, to the South where the heating is only allowed to come on 5 hours a day for a few weeks a year.

    Also note the article is from 2020 - Italy's approach this year has been to reset the regulations as 1 degree less on the the thermostat, one hour less per day, one week less on the start and end dates (broadly, I liked the idea and it is how I've set up my heating for winter)



    That seems sensible. A similar campaign here could mean no risk of blackouts. Liz Truss is an idiot.
    Liz Truss represents the end state of a weird subclass of libertarian thinking. An absolute belief that the state should not exercise any kind of control over individual citizens, not even the most minimal control of persuasive argument & influence, because to do so is to deny the liberty of individual citizens to do whatever they damn well please & take the consequences. When those consequences only affect them as individuals this is a perfectly workable moral system, but it fails utterly when collective action is required to stave off consequences that affect all of us.

    The weird thing here is that, perhaps surprisingly, in many cases all that is actually required is to explain the inevitable consequences and request co-operation & people are happy to comply, within the limits set by their individual circumstances. What could be more libertarian than that? Individuals know their personal circumstances & can do their best to act appropritely if they so choose, given the information that the goverment presents them with.

    In this case, to get through this winter without blackouts no one needs to go without heating or power: Some attention to necessity is all that’s required, as far as I can tell. Yet the government refuses to do anything at all. Madness.
    Yep, the line in her conf speech she delivered with the most relish and authenticity was this one -

    "I have no interest in looking over people's shoulder to see if they're buying 2 for 1 deals in the supermarket."

    Sounds a bit of a throwaway but it wasn't. It says a lot about the brain chemistry that has somehow wriggled into government.
    Yes, its good isn't it?

    The state should be doing that which it needs to do, and ideally doing it well. Do less, but do it better.

    The state doesn't need to be pissing about issuing decrees about 2 for 1 deals etc
    It's good if you share the libertarian fringe mindset, yes.
    You think the state should be issuing decrees about 2 for 1 deals?

    What is wrong with the idea of do less, but do it better? Should our state really be the jack of all trades, master of none?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    FPT:
    How it is done elsewhere:

    https://easymilano.com/when-can-we-switch-on-the-heating-in-italy/

    Given a sizeable number of people live in communal apartments, this is a pretty broad regulation defining the date central heating can be switched on, how many hours a day it can run and what it can be set to. It is split by zone, from a few Alpine locations where limitations are minimal, to the South where the heating is only allowed to come on 5 hours a day for a few weeks a year.

    Also note the article is from 2020 - Italy's approach this year has been to reset the regulations as 1 degree less on the the thermostat, one hour less per day, one week less on the start and end dates (broadly, I liked the idea and it is how I've set up my heating for winter)



    That seems sensible. A similar campaign here could mean no risk of blackouts. Liz Truss is an idiot.
    I think there is an aversion to the state telling you how to behave at play. I keep seeing posters suggest that the cost pressure has been removed from energy costs this winter. This is simply not true - its been heavily mitigated for sure, but most folk are seeing energy bills go up. At the same time the media is all over this with 'how reduce your bills' stories. Thats what the people pay attention too - Phil and Holly, or the One Show, not government broadcasts.

    People will be taking action to save money this winter and this will help reduce consumption, all without the state having to do anything.
    I think we need to look at this just as we did the first lockdown. Clear and consistent messaging from the government will help keep the lights on this winter (and probably the following two). Hoping that enough people act voluntarily without proper advice or from non official advice will result in rolling blackouts and interruptions in gas supply for households.

    The downside to doing nothing is potentially very large and the upside is non-existent. Liz Truss is putting the nation at risk for some idiotic ideology. Even I supported the first lockdown, just because there were so many unknowns. This is similar, except we know that normal usage by households and industry will result in blackouts. Even basic advice in when in the day or night to run dishwashers and washing machines or how to save electricity when using the oven (tip - don't use the fan assist, put the temperature up by 10 degrees vs the instructions and cut the cooking time a bit). These are basic information that loads of people just don't know, giving people the tools to help themselves and the nation is a win/win.
    Why shouldn't you use the fan assist?
    On that topic, I'm a big fan (no pun intended) of air fryers, my wife and I have used an air fryer for about the last 12 years and do much of our cooking in that. Unless its a big, bulky meal, we rarely need to turn on our oven as a result.

    An air fryer is very fan assisted and uses considerably less electricity than a conventional oven and cooks quicker too.

    Ours is quite a large one so can cook a meal for a family of 4 in the air fryer, but it still uses much less energy than a conventional oven.
    My takeaway (literally) is: after 15 years subsisting on borderline edible sourdough bread it is cost ineffective to bake in an electric oven and I can go back to buying the stuff. Yay.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    edited October 2022

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Any sensible preparations for winter power cuts ahead? Buying a couple of decent usb torches and a usb reading light. A chance to catch up on some reading.

    What about power back ups for PCs? Seems they don't last very long and guess home wifi wont work either so benefit would be safely closing down rather than keeping it online?

    Anything I can do for fridge/freezer?

    Blankets and jumpers.

    Torch for reading light.

    Portable camping gas stove and a stove kettle - most regular gas cookers won’t run with no power, they have a safety cutout.

    For a desktop PC, get a UPS.

    You can get a device called an inverter, that will turn your car engine into a generator and give 240v. It’ll be enough to run the PC, wifi router, and chargers for phones, laptops, torches etc
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/LVYUAN-Inverter-Converter-Cigarette-Lighter/dp/B08PS1LKCP/
    Don’t run the inverter without the engine running (it will kill the battery in minutes!), make sure your car can’t be stolen if left with the engine running, and don’t run out of petrol!

    Fridge/freezer not much, but a modern one will keep cold for a couple of days if you don’t open it. You could run it from the inverter for a bit, if nothing else is plugged in.

    Get a generator if you really need power for more than just emergencies, it’s more efficient than using the car!
    The cigarette lighter in a car is usually on a 10A fuse so 120W before any losses in the inverter. Useless.

    If you're going to do it you need something like a 1000W inverter than can draw 100A+ (they are usually fused at 150-200A) from the battery.
    Yes, if you’re gonna plug your fridge in, use the battery cables provided and not the cigarette lighter, and don’t leave it running long.

    They are good for laptops and routers though, which is what you might need in an emergency,
    Hyundai Ioniq does 3.6kW V2L. That's what you really want!
    I have Nissan Leaf which is theoretically capable of powering our home for a couple of days from a full charge, but the reversible charger required to do so seems to be either prohibitively expensive or unavailable, depending where I look. Granted, it has to be a pretty complex bit of kit to handle switching cleanly between mains and car power.
    Also, most of the devices that let you feed power from the electric car to the home, won’t do so if there’s a power cut in the home. They need to get the a/c current in phase with the mains power supply, and can’t do that when there’s a blackout.

    Those that can, need the main input to the home to be wired through them, and are really expensive to buy and fit. They’re similar to what a data centre might use between a generator, UPS battery and the mains.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Phil said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    FPT:
    How it is done elsewhere:

    https://easymilano.com/when-can-we-switch-on-the-heating-in-italy/

    Given a sizeable number of people live in communal apartments, this is a pretty broad regulation defining the date central heating can be switched on, how many hours a day it can run and what it can be set to. It is split by zone, from a few Alpine locations where limitations are minimal, to the South where the heating is only allowed to come on 5 hours a day for a few weeks a year.

    Also note the article is from 2020 - Italy's approach this year has been to reset the regulations as 1 degree less on the the thermostat, one hour less per day, one week less on the start and end dates (broadly, I liked the idea and it is how I've set up my heating for winter)



    That seems sensible. A similar campaign here could mean no risk of blackouts. Liz Truss is an idiot.
    Liz Truss represents the end state of a weird subclass of libertarian thinking. An absolute belief that the state should not exercise any kind of control over individual citizens, not even the most minimal control of persuasive argument & influence, because to do so is to deny the liberty of individual citizens to do whatever they damn well please & take the consequences. When those consequences only affect them as individuals this is a perfectly workable moral system, but it fails utterly when collective action is required to stave off consequences that affect all of us.

    The weird thing here is that, perhaps surprisingly, in many cases all that is actually required is to explain the inevitable consequences and request co-operation & people are happy to comply, within the limits set by their individual circumstances. What could be more libertarian than that? Individuals know their personal circumstances & can do their best to act appropritely if they so choose, given the information that the goverment presents them with.

    In this case, to get through this winter without blackouts no one needs to go without heating or power: Some attention to necessity is all that’s required, as far as I can tell. Yet the government refuses to do anything at all. Madness.
    Yep, the line in her conf speech she delivered with the most relish and authenticity was this one -

    "I have no interest in looking over people's shoulder to see if they're buying 2 for 1 deals in the supermarket."

    Sounds a bit of a throwaway but it wasn't. It says a lot about the brain chemistry that has somehow wriggled into government.
    Yes, its good isn't it?

    The state should be doing that which it needs to do, and ideally doing it well. Do less, but do it better.

    The state doesn't need to be pissing about issuing decrees about 2 for 1 deals etc
    It's good if you share the libertarian fringe mindset, yes.
    You think the state should be issuing decrees about 2 for 1 deals?

    What is wrong with the idea of do less, but do it better? Should our state really be the jack of all trades, master of none?
    The rest of that phrase is "oftentimes better than a master of one"

    And - yes, the state should exist to give a secure foundation of humane existence to a certain level across multiple areas; food, shelter, education, health, work and so on.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    eek said:

    nico679 said:

    Wouldn’t Kwarteng have designed his fiscal plan to get the thumbs up from the OBR.

    It would surely be madness to do otherwise given any further mistakes will likely mean the end of his tenure as COE .

    The whole reason he was bypassing the OBR was because he knew his plans just don't work out when the OBR starts looking.

    Hint the OBR would look at the growth forecast and expect something more than

    Tax cuts ->????? -> x% growth -> y% more tax

    Which is what Kwarteng's plans consist of...
    I'm interested in the process and controls around OBR forecasting. Projected growth is more an art than a science. It's subjective. Different people have different views on what leads to growth and by how much, the "multipliers" etc. Bottom line is it's an educated guess. And what the OBR plug in for growth will be the difference as to whether the government's plans look suicidal or merely a bit of a flyer.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,770
    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    Not sure it has been mentioned on here, but it is official now.

    Aaron Bell has joined the government as PPS to Brandon Lewis and his MOJ team.

    https://twitter.com/BrandonLewis/status/1577942225694113792

    All that toadying makes sense. I hope it's worth being associated to this rabble of the government for him. Aaron has definitely take a hit to his reputation over the last few weeks.
    Given the shower of shit in team Truss, it's a questionable choice.
    I can see the logic. It's reasonably easy to surmise that there's a pretty high chance of losing his seat at the next election. Given that most people go into politics in order to try and 'do good' in some way - if he sees that he has a limited amount of time left what can he most helpfully do - perhaps making small but important changes in the MoJ to improve things is better than criticizing from the outside to no real effect..
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Phil said:

    Any sensible preparations for winter power cuts ahead? Buying a couple of decent usb torches and a usb reading light. A chance to catch up on some reading.

    What about power back ups for PCs? Seems they don't last very long and guess home wifi wont work either so benefit would be safely closing down rather than keeping it online?

    Anything I can do for fridge/freezer?

    Just FYI for everyone here: Some ikea LED desk lamps are actually USB powered - they come with a USB charger & the power cable has a USB plug on the end. You can plug them into a USB powerbank & get hours & hours of light out of them - they’re only 3W. This is one example: https://www.ikea.com/gb/en/p/harte-led-work-lamp-white-silver-colour-10527247/ . I suspect any IKEA lamp that is listed as requiring 5V power fits this category. Something like this is a much better idea than candles, which are a fire risk. Especially so given that we’re not really used to using candles as a light source these days.

    On computers: Yes, the point of a small PSU is mostly to give you enough time for a clean shutdown. You’d need a large battery to cover a three hour blackout for a desktop. Switch to a laptop & keep it fully charged?

    Keep the fridge & freezer closed during a blackout if you can - opening the door lets a lot of heat in (not quite as important for chest freezers - you don’t dump the cold air out of those by opening the top).
    And full. It makes sense to fill any voids in a freezer with milk cartons full of water
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Reports that Armenia and Azerbaijan have agreed to an EU civilian mission to help demilitarise the border between them.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Phil said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    FPT:
    How it is done elsewhere:

    https://easymilano.com/when-can-we-switch-on-the-heating-in-italy/

    Given a sizeable number of people live in communal apartments, this is a pretty broad regulation defining the date central heating can be switched on, how many hours a day it can run and what it can be set to. It is split by zone, from a few Alpine locations where limitations are minimal, to the South where the heating is only allowed to come on 5 hours a day for a few weeks a year.

    Also note the article is from 2020 - Italy's approach this year has been to reset the regulations as 1 degree less on the the thermostat, one hour less per day, one week less on the start and end dates (broadly, I liked the idea and it is how I've set up my heating for winter)



    That seems sensible. A similar campaign here could mean no risk of blackouts. Liz Truss is an idiot.
    Liz Truss represents the end state of a weird subclass of libertarian thinking. An absolute belief that the state should not exercise any kind of control over individual citizens, not even the most minimal control of persuasive argument & influence, because to do so is to deny the liberty of individual citizens to do whatever they damn well please & take the consequences. When those consequences only affect them as individuals this is a perfectly workable moral system, but it fails utterly when collective action is required to stave off consequences that affect all of us.

    The weird thing here is that, perhaps surprisingly, in many cases all that is actually required is to explain the inevitable consequences and request co-operation & people are happy to comply, within the limits set by their individual circumstances. What could be more libertarian than that? Individuals know their personal circumstances & can do their best to act appropritely if they so choose, given the information that the goverment presents them with.

    In this case, to get through this winter without blackouts no one needs to go without heating or power: Some attention to necessity is all that’s required, as far as I can tell. Yet the government refuses to do anything at all. Madness.
    Yep, the line in her conf speech she delivered with the most relish and authenticity was this one -

    "I have no interest in looking over people's shoulder to see if they're buying 2 for 1 deals in the supermarket."

    Sounds a bit of a throwaway but it wasn't. It says a lot about the brain chemistry that has somehow wriggled into government.
    Yes, its good isn't it?

    The state should be doing that which it needs to do, and ideally doing it well. Do less, but do it better.

    The state doesn't need to be pissing about issuing decrees about 2 for 1 deals etc
    It's good if you share the libertarian fringe mindset, yes.
    You think the state should be issuing decrees about 2 for 1 deals?

    What is wrong with the idea of do less, but do it better? Should our state really be the jack of all trades, master of none?
    Do less is usually right wing code for cutting universal credit.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,239
    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Any sensible preparations for winter power cuts ahead? Buying a couple of decent usb torches and a usb reading light. A chance to catch up on some reading.

    What about power back ups for PCs? Seems they don't last very long and guess home wifi wont work either so benefit would be safely closing down rather than keeping it online?

    Anything I can do for fridge/freezer?

    Blankets and jumpers.

    Torch for reading light.

    Portable camping gas stove and a stove kettle - most regular gas cookers won’t run with no power, they have a safety cutout.

    For a desktop PC, get a UPS.

    You can get a device called an inverter, that will turn your car engine into a generator and give 240v. It’ll be enough to run the PC, wifi router, and chargers for phones, laptops, torches etc
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/LVYUAN-Inverter-Converter-Cigarette-Lighter/dp/B08PS1LKCP/
    Don’t run the inverter without the engine running (it will kill the battery in minutes!), make sure your car can’t be stolen if left with the engine running, and don’t run out of petrol!

    Fridge/freezer not much, but a modern one will keep cold for a couple of days if you don’t open it. You could run it from the inverter for a bit, if nothing else is plugged in.

    Get a generator if you really need power for more than just emergencies, it’s more efficient than using the car!
    The cigarette lighter in a car is usually on a 10A fuse so 120W before any losses in the inverter. Useless.

    If you're going to do it you need something like a 1000W inverter than can draw 100A+ (they are usually fused at 150-200A) from the battery.
    Yes, if you’re gonna plug your fridge in, use the battery cables provided and not the cigarette lighter, and don’t leave it running long.

    They are good for laptops and routers though, which is what you might need in an emergency,
    Hyundai Ioniq does 3.6kW V2L. That's what you really want!
    I have Nissan Leaf which is theoretically capable of powering our home for a couple of days from a full charge, but the reversible charger required to do so seems to be either prohibitively expensive or unavailable, depending where I look. Granted, it has to be a pretty complex bit of kit to handle switching cleanly between mains and car power.
    Also, most of the devices that let you feed power from the electric car to the home, won’t do so if there’s a power cut in the home. They need to get the a/c current in phase with the mains power supply, and can’t do that when there’s a blackout.
    I think there are legal issues involved: you are not allowed to feed mains into an unpowered grid feed without the power companies being aware of it for obvious safety reasons. If you want to use your car as a battery to, eg, store solar from your house & feed back from it in the evening then this is fine, but if you use it when there’s a power cut due to downed power lines you risk electrocuting the linesmen sent to fix the problem.

    People that want this kind of off grid independence are, IIRC, required to fit equipment that can isolate the house circuits from the outside when you connect a power source to your house electrics. I’m not up on the details though.

    (Not that this will stop ejits from hooking a diesel generator up to their house with a home-made plug-plug power cable. But if you do that then you are a 100% grade A twerp.)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    IshmaelZ said:

    Phil said:

    Any sensible preparations for winter power cuts ahead? Buying a couple of decent usb torches and a usb reading light. A chance to catch up on some reading.

    What about power back ups for PCs? Seems they don't last very long and guess home wifi wont work either so benefit would be safely closing down rather than keeping it online?

    Anything I can do for fridge/freezer?

    Just FYI for everyone here: Some ikea LED desk lamps are actually USB powered - they come with a USB charger & the power cable has a USB plug on the end. You can plug them into a USB powerbank & get hours & hours of light out of them - they’re only 3W. This is one example: https://www.ikea.com/gb/en/p/harte-led-work-lamp-white-silver-colour-10527247/ . I suspect any IKEA lamp that is listed as requiring 5V power fits this category. Something like this is a much better idea than candles, which are a fire risk. Especially so given that we’re not really used to using candles as a light source these days.

    On computers: Yes, the point of a small PSU is mostly to give you enough time for a clean shutdown. You’d need a large battery to cover a three hour blackout for a desktop. Switch to a laptop & keep it fully charged?

    Keep the fridge & freezer closed during a blackout if you can - opening the door lets a lot of heat in (not quite as important for chest freezers - you don’t dump the cold air out of those by opening the top).
    And full. It makes sense to fill any voids in a freezer with milk cartons full of water
    Make them 85% full with the liquid water though, unless you want a mess to clean up! Good idea though, the mass of water will reduce the speed at which the freezer warms up without power.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Phil said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    FPT:
    How it is done elsewhere:

    https://easymilano.com/when-can-we-switch-on-the-heating-in-italy/

    Given a sizeable number of people live in communal apartments, this is a pretty broad regulation defining the date central heating can be switched on, how many hours a day it can run and what it can be set to. It is split by zone, from a few Alpine locations where limitations are minimal, to the South where the heating is only allowed to come on 5 hours a day for a few weeks a year.

    Also note the article is from 2020 - Italy's approach this year has been to reset the regulations as 1 degree less on the the thermostat, one hour less per day, one week less on the start and end dates (broadly, I liked the idea and it is how I've set up my heating for winter)



    That seems sensible. A similar campaign here could mean no risk of blackouts. Liz Truss is an idiot.
    Liz Truss represents the end state of a weird subclass of libertarian thinking. An absolute belief that the state should not exercise any kind of control over individual citizens, not even the most minimal control of persuasive argument & influence, because to do so is to deny the liberty of individual citizens to do whatever they damn well please & take the consequences. When those consequences only affect them as individuals this is a perfectly workable moral system, but it fails utterly when collective action is required to stave off consequences that affect all of us.

    The weird thing here is that, perhaps surprisingly, in many cases all that is actually required is to explain the inevitable consequences and request co-operation & people are happy to comply, within the limits set by their individual circumstances. What could be more libertarian than that? Individuals know their personal circumstances & can do their best to act appropritely if they so choose, given the information that the goverment presents them with.

    In this case, to get through this winter without blackouts no one needs to go without heating or power: Some attention to necessity is all that’s required, as far as I can tell. Yet the government refuses to do anything at all. Madness.
    Yep, the line in her conf speech she delivered with the most relish and authenticity was this one -

    "I have no interest in looking over people's shoulder to see if they're buying 2 for 1 deals in the supermarket."

    Sounds a bit of a throwaway but it wasn't. It says a lot about the brain chemistry that has somehow wriggled into government.
    Yes, its good isn't it?

    The state should be doing that which it needs to do, and ideally doing it well. Do less, but do it better.

    The state doesn't need to be pissing about issuing decrees about 2 for 1 deals etc
    It's good if you share the libertarian fringe mindset, yes.
    You think the state should be issuing decrees about 2 for 1 deals?

    What is wrong with the idea of do less, but do it better? Should our state really be the jack of all trades, master of none?
    The risk this winter is blackouts, spending £15m on a public information campaign to help people use less power correctly. The state isn't mandating anything, it's advising people. Additionally this winter there is a national and collective responsibility to use less energy to avoid blackouts. This is precisely the kind of situation where the state needs to intervene.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    edited October 2022
    kinabalu said:

    Phil said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    FPT:
    How it is done elsewhere:

    https://easymilano.com/when-can-we-switch-on-the-heating-in-italy/

    Given a sizeable number of people live in communal apartments, this is a pretty broad regulation defining the date central heating can be switched on, how many hours a day it can run and what it can be set to. It is split by zone, from a few Alpine locations where limitations are minimal, to the South where the heating is only allowed to come on 5 hours a day for a few weeks a year.

    Also note the article is from 2020 - Italy's approach this year has been to reset the regulations as 1 degree less on the the thermostat, one hour less per day, one week less on the start and end dates (broadly, I liked the idea and it is how I've set up my heating for winter)



    That seems sensible. A similar campaign here could mean no risk of blackouts. Liz Truss is an idiot.
    Liz Truss represents the end state of a weird subclass of libertarian thinking. An absolute belief that the state should not exercise any kind of control over individual citizens, not even the most minimal control of persuasive argument & influence, because to do so is to deny the liberty of individual citizens to do whatever they damn well please & take the consequences. When those consequences only affect them as individuals this is a perfectly workable moral system, but it fails utterly when collective action is required to stave off consequences that affect all of us.

    The weird thing here is that, perhaps surprisingly, in many cases all that is actually required is to explain the inevitable consequences and request co-operation & people are happy to comply, within the limits set by their individual circumstances. What could be more libertarian than that? Individuals know their personal circumstances & can do their best to act appropritely if they so choose, given the information that the goverment presents them with.

    In this case, to get through this winter without blackouts no one needs to go without heating or power: Some attention to necessity is all that’s required, as far as I can tell. Yet the government refuses to do anything at all. Madness.
    Yep, the line in her conf speech she delivered with the most relish and authenticity was this one -

    "I have no interest in looking over people's shoulder to see if they're buying 2 for 1 deals in the supermarket."

    Sounds a bit of a throwaway but it wasn't. It says a lot about the brain chemistry that has somehow wriggled into government.

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Phil said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    FPT:
    How it is done elsewhere:

    https://easymilano.com/when-can-we-switch-on-the-heating-in-italy/

    Given a sizeable number of people live in communal apartments, this is a pretty broad regulation defining the date central heating can be switched on, how many hours a day it can run and what it can be set to. It is split by zone, from a few Alpine locations where limitations are minimal, to the South where the heating is only allowed to come on 5 hours a day for a few weeks a year.

    Also note the article is from 2020 - Italy's approach this year has been to reset the regulations as 1 degree less on the the thermostat, one hour less per day, one week less on the start and end dates (broadly, I liked the idea and it is how I've set up my heating for winter)



    That seems sensible. A similar campaign here could mean no risk of blackouts. Liz Truss is an idiot.
    Liz Truss represents the end state of a weird subclass of libertarian thinking. An absolute belief that the state should not exercise any kind of control over individual citizens, not even the most minimal control of persuasive argument & influence, because to do so is to deny the liberty of individual citizens to do whatever they damn well please & take the consequences. When those consequences only affect them as individuals this is a perfectly workable moral system, but it fails utterly when collective action is required to stave off consequences that affect all of us.

    The weird thing here is that, perhaps surprisingly, in many cases all that is actually required is to explain the inevitable consequences and request co-operation & people are happy to comply, within the limits set by their individual circumstances. What could be more libertarian than that? Individuals know their personal circumstances & can do their best to act appropritely if they so choose, given the information that the goverment presents them with.

    In this case, to get through this winter without blackouts no one needs to go without heating or power: Some attention to necessity is all that’s required, as far as I can tell. Yet the government refuses to do anything at all. Madness.
    Yep, the line in her conf speech she delivered with the most relish and authenticity was this one -

    "I have no interest in looking over people's shoulder to see if they're buying 2 for 1 deals in the supermarket."

    Sounds a bit of a throwaway but it wasn't. It says a lot about the brain chemistry that has somehow wriggled into government.
    Yes, its good isn't it?

    The state should be doing that which it needs to do, and ideally doing it well. Do less, but do it better.

    The state doesn't need to be pissing about issuing decrees about 2 for 1 deals etc
    It's good if you share the libertarian fringe mindset, yes.
    You think the state should be issuing decrees about 2 for 1 deals?

    What is wrong with the idea of do less, but do it better? Should our state really be the jack of all trades, master of none?
    The 2-for-1 thing is a staggeringly disingenuous way of putting it. Is controlling the sale of very unhealthy foods to (long run) save the country money and help people stay healthy less important that FrEeDoM oF cHoIcE then I dunno what to say. The logical conclusion of that strawmannish argument is to legalise everything because people aught to be able to make their own minds about whether or not they should smoke crack.

    The notion that the nanny state is stopping people doing things they enjoy is bollocks. Controlling harmful factors is a core responsibility of government.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    edited October 2022

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Any sensible preparations for winter power cuts ahead? Buying a couple of decent usb torches and a usb reading light. A chance to catch up on some reading.

    What about power back ups for PCs? Seems they don't last very long and guess home wifi wont work either so benefit would be safely closing down rather than keeping it online?

    Anything I can do for fridge/freezer?

    Blankets and jumpers.

    Torch for reading light.

    Portable camping gas stove and a stove kettle - most regular gas cookers won’t run with no power, they have a safety cutout.

    For a desktop PC, get a UPS.

    You can get a device called an inverter, that will turn your car engine into a generator and give 240v. It’ll be enough to run the PC, wifi router, and chargers for phones, laptops, torches etc
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/LVYUAN-Inverter-Converter-Cigarette-Lighter/dp/B08PS1LKCP/
    Don’t run the inverter without the engine running (it will kill the battery in minutes!), make sure your car can’t be stolen if left with the engine running, and don’t run out of petrol!

    Fridge/freezer not much, but a modern one will keep cold for a couple of days if you don’t open it. You could run it from the inverter for a bit, if nothing else is plugged in.

    Get a generator if you really need power for more than just emergencies, it’s more efficient than using the car!
    The cigarette lighter in a car is usually on a 10A fuse so 120W before any losses in the inverter. Useless.

    If you're going to do it you need something like a 1000W inverter than can draw 100A+ (they are usually fused at 150-200A) from the battery.
    Yes, if you’re gonna plug your fridge in, use the battery cables provided and not the cigarette lighter, and don’t leave it running long.

    They are good for laptops and routers though, which is what you might need in an emergency,
    Hyundai Ioniq does 3.6kW V2L. That's what you really want!
    I have Nissan Leaf which is theoretically capable of powering our home for a couple of days from a full charge, but the reversible charger required to do so seems to be either prohibitively expensive or unavailable, depending where I look. Granted, it has to be a pretty complex bit of kit to handle switching cleanly between mains and car power.
    It's inbuilt on some new EVs.
    https://thedriven.io/2022/04/07/hyundai-to-allow-its-ev-batteries-to-do-vehicle-to-everything/
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    edited October 2022
    Nigelb said:

    Reports that Armenia and Azerbaijan have agreed to an EU civilian mission to help demilitarise the border between them.

    Which one? The real one, the internationally recognised one or the one Azerbaijan actually wants?

    Edit - I should add, that's a further humiliation for Putin as that was meant to be Russia's job under the ceasefire last year.
This discussion has been closed.