Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

The Speccie speculates – “Rishi by Christmas?” – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited October 9 in General
imageThe Speccie speculates – “Rishi by Christmas?” – politicalbetting.com

With the huge collapse in the Tory poll ratings and the terrible approval numbers Truss there is clearly is a lot of speculation going on about what happens next for the Tory Party.

Read the full story here

«13456710

Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,767
    edited October 7
    First like Arsenal (got to enjoy it whilst it lasts).
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042
    Rishi will need to convince on Ukraine if it is to be him.

    It is clear that Liz is a supply PM though. No-one is going to waste any political capital shoring her up. She is already withering in front of us.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819

    Rishi will need to convince on Ukraine if it is to be him.

    It is clear that Liz is a supply PM though. No-one is going to waste any political capital shoring her up. She is already withering in front of us.

    The thing that will keep her in place is the fear that any stitch up will fail and they will end up with a second membership vote where the inappropriate candidate promises the earth and wins...
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,204
    Given how abysmal and incompetent Liz Truss is, I would not rely on the usual assumptions about how the Conservative party changes its leaders. These are truly unchartered waters.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,540
    I might be wrong, but I don't think that Truss can be replaced by Sunak, because he represents one of the factions, and so he would represent defeat of the other factions.

    Howard was able to emerge as a unity figure because it was clear he was only a temporary leader, and he had sufficient respect from all sides. The pace of the Brexit Revolution within the Tories has been such that all of the old party grandees are cast as bitter Remoaners (so are not ideologically trusted by the right), and any other potential figure is seen as an active rival.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042
    eek said:

    Rishi will need to convince on Ukraine if it is to be him.

    It is clear that Liz is a supply PM though. No-one is going to waste any political capital shoring her up. She is already withering in front of us.

    The thing that will keep her in place is the fear that any stitch up will fail and they will end up with a second membership vote where the inappropriate candidate promises the earth and wins...
    It will be a fait accompli, with many of the Cabinet posts known in advance. The only risk is a Truss supporter putting up to ensure it goes to the members. The 22 could change the rules though to have a minimum number of votes to proceed.

    There will be a way for a smooth and very rapid transition.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,284
    Growing commentary along these lines in Washington. About time.

    Some day, the US will not need to pretend to be friends with the Saudi kingdom.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/JamesFallows/status/1578209375474286592
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,284
    Interesting if you doing any betting on US elections.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/SarahLongwell25/status/1578197739929624576
    Just did a focus group with Georgia swing voters (Trump ‘16/Biden ‘20). A youngish group. Many not following politics closely. Half had not heard the new allegations against Herschel Walker. If election were held today 100% went Kemp for Gov. All but one went Warnock for Senate.
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 627
    Remember Rishi Is For Tory Political Lives Not Just For Christmas

    Woof Woof ..
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,210
    I don’t see it. Disgruntled Johnsonites, the Braverman/Badenoch factions, JRM etc. would all have to fall into line for a Rishi coronation. A few of them might be bought off by high-profile Cabinet jobs, but (for example) there’s no way you can square keeping Braverman onside, not demoting her, and not having a headbanger at the Home Office.

    I think Truss is going down with the ship, the only question is when.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,220
    "My view is that there is something about Liz Truss that makes it hard for her to resonate with the public and that is reflected in the awful poll numbers."

    Mr Smithson, that's exactly the case. She looks artificial. She has a disadvantage in being female there, because I expect men to lie when it suits. Somehow I'm disappointed when women do. Does that count as reverse sexism? I hold women to a higher standard.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328
    I think that this is incredibly unlikely. Indeed it seems as if Rishi is going to be yet another talent lost to politics where that is a vanishingly rare commodity. There is more chance of him not being in the Commons by Christmas than there is of her being PM.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 21,507
    Good morning from my hotel which is currently surrounded by paparazzi as "the Strictly people" are staying here (...zzz...)

    Everyone knows this is over. Everyone outside the cabal. That The Spectator is musing on Rishi this year shows you how the party enthusiasts have already given up on Mistress Truss.

    Sunak would be sensible to try and assemble a unity cabinet of all the talents. May as Foreign Secretary? Hunt back at Health. Give Boris David Mellor's old job as "Minister of Fun".
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 21,507
    OK have looked up the "celebrities" sharing the hotel with me. Only know Matt Goss (from Bros and that comedy documentary about him and his brother fighting when they tried to reform the "band") and he is hardly A-list.

    I am genuinely baffled by who wants to buy a newspaper to see a photo of D-list "celebs" coming out this hotel to go the mile up the road to the studio.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,364
    In its story about Boris's political peerages expected any day now (though not his resignation honours list which may be months away) the Telegraph mentions that:-

    A number of Tories who had been on Mr Johnson’s peerage list have been removed since Liz Truss took office last month. It is unclear why. More last-minute changes could be yet to be made.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/06/leaked-list-reveals-brexiteers-tory-donors-due-get-peerages/ (£££)
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,646
    edited October 7
    Truss is dreadful and needs to go as soon as possible or the sake of the country. Her refusal to sign off a public information campaign to encourage reduced use of domestic energy ought to be the final nail in her coffin. This is outrageous and irresponsible. We need sensible, calm, leadership at a moment of international crisis, not tin-eared stubborn nonsense. Enough!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328
    Nigelb said:

    Growing commentary along these lines in Washington. About time.

    Some day, the US will not need to pretend to be friends with the Saudi kingdom.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/JamesFallows/status/1578209375474286592

    Quite. Cutting oil production when there is already a somewhat artificial cut because of Russian sanctions and the world economy is teetering on the edge of recession was decidedly unhelpful and a real slap in the face for Biden who had asked them to increase production.

    Once again, however, it is Europe that bears the brunt of this as the US returns to self sufficiency on the back of higher prices. And yet there are still some people complaining that squeezing the last out of the north sea is not compatible with our green priorities: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-63149957
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,461
    edited October 7
    Rishi was always the obvious choice. He struck me as head and shoulders better than those around him. Most of Johnson's Cabinet looked like a bunch of spivs and Truss has continued the tradition. Rishi has an integrity that the rest don't have. He has the sort of elegance we see in Macron.

    It would do our international reputation a power of good if we had a leader who made us look decent again. I don't believe we can afford to wait two years till Starmer takes over
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882
    edited October 7
    There is NOT 'a 35% chance of Truss winning the next election' as one of her supporters suggests.
    That is complete and utter crap. There is less than a 0.35% chance of her winning now and that's being generous.

    There isn't even a 35% chance of any other tory leader winning.

    You simply do not come back from these sorts of sea-change polling. It's over.

    So it is now ALL about damage limitation. Do they go for near wipeout, Canada style? If so, stay with Truss. Mike is right: she is the ultimate voter non-resonant.

    Do they go for safety and limit losses to around 200 MPs? If so go with Rishi.

    Or do they gamble and go back to the joker in the pack on the off chance he might pull off some of the Red Wall again? If so it's Boris.

    Whatever they decide they will be out of office for a bare minimum of one term, probably two and quite possibly three.

    Well done.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042

    In its story about Boris's political peerages expected any day now (though not his resignation honours list which may be months away) the Telegraph mentions that:-

    A number of Tories who had been on Mr Johnson’s peerage list have been removed since Liz Truss took office last month. It is unclear why. More last-minute changes could be yet to be made.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/06/leaked-list-reveals-brexiteers-tory-donors-due-get-peerages/ (£££)

    Nadine being removed might explain much....
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,734

    In its story about Boris's political peerages expected any day now (though not his resignation honours list which may be months away) the Telegraph mentions that:-

    A number of Tories who had been on Mr Johnson’s peerage list have been removed since Liz Truss took office last month. It is unclear why. More last-minute changes could be yet to be made.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/06/leaked-list-reveals-brexiteers-tory-donors-due-get-peerages/ (£££)

    Stewart Jackson (!) Good God, what are we doing rewarding people like that with a peerage.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042
    JACK_W said:

    Remember Rishi Is For Tory Political Lives Not Just For Christmas

    Woof Woof ..

    It must be on. JackW up before ten to post on pb? Momentous times....
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    FTPT:

    Do you know in 2006 an absolute majority of the country thought it would be Wrong if a Scottish person was Prime Minister. The BBC did a whole "Politics Show" about it and what a disgcrace it would be if a Scot was at the top

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/politics_show/4757329.stm
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,734
    Heathener said:

    There is NOT 'a 35% chance of Truss winning the next election' as one of her supporters suggests.
    That is complete and utter crap. There is less than a 0.35% chance of her winning now and that's being generous.

    There isn't even a 35% chance of any other tory leader winning.

    You simply do not come back from these sorts of sea-change polling. It's over.

    So it is now ALL about damage limitation. Do they go for near wipeout, Canada style? If so, stay with Truss. Mike is right: she is the ultimate voter non-resonant.

    Do they go for safety and limit losses to around 200 MPs? If so go with Rishi.

    Or do they gamble and go back to the joker in the pack on the off chance he might pull off some of the Red Wall again? If so it's Boris.

    Whatever they decide they will be out of office for a bare minimum of one term, probably two and quite possibly three.

    Well done.

    "Whatever they decide they will be out of office for a bare minimum of one term, probably two and quite possibly three."

    Some good news on an otherwise bleak morning then. 👍
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882
    edited October 7
    Alistair said:

    FTPT:

    Do you know in 2006 an absolute majority of the country thought it would be Wrong if a Scottish person was Prime Minister. The BBC did a whole "Politics Show" about it and what a disgcrace it would be if a Scot was at the top

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/politics_show/4757329.stm

    That is NOT what the poll asked or said!!!!!!!

    There have already been a stack of Scottish Prime Ministers. At least 7 who were Scottish and more than 10 who were born in Scotland, with various PMs representing Scottish constituencies.

    The poll was asking whether an MP of the Scottish Parliament could also be PM of the United Kingdom, which isn't at all the same question.

    Naughty boy!! ;)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,364

    In its story about Boris's political peerages expected any day now (though not his resignation honours list which may be months away) the Telegraph mentions that:-

    A number of Tories who had been on Mr Johnson’s peerage list have been removed since Liz Truss took office last month. It is unclear why. More last-minute changes could be yet to be made.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/06/leaked-list-reveals-brexiteers-tory-donors-due-get-peerages/ (£££)

    Stewart Jackson (!) Good God, what are we doing rewarding people like that with a peerage.
    Could be our first PB alumnus elevated to the Lords.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    edited October 7
    Heathener said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT:

    Do you know in 2006 an absolute majority of the country thought it would be Wrong if a Scottish person was Prime Minister. The BBC did a whole "Politics Show" about it and what a disgcrace it would be if a Scot was at the top

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/politics_show/4757329.stm

    That is NOT what the poll asked or said!!!!!!!

    There have already been a stack of Scottish Prime Ministers. At least 7 who were Scottish and more than 10 who were born in Scotland, with various PMs representing Scottish constituencies.

    The poll was asking whether a Scottish MP should be PM of the United Kingdom, which isn't at all the same question.

    Naughty boy!! ;)
    Fun fact, there have been more PMs born in both Canada and the United States than there have been in Wales.

    Edit - I'm sure this will gladden the heart of @TSE wherever he is on holiday :wink:
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855

    Heathener said:

    There is NOT 'a 35% chance of Truss winning the next election' as one of her supporters suggests.
    That is complete and utter crap. There is less than a 0.35% chance of her winning now and that's being generous.

    There isn't even a 35% chance of any other tory leader winning.

    You simply do not come back from these sorts of sea-change polling. It's over.

    So it is now ALL about damage limitation. Do they go for near wipeout, Canada style? If so, stay with Truss. Mike is right: she is the ultimate voter non-resonant.

    Do they go for safety and limit losses to around 200 MPs? If so go with Rishi.

    Or do they gamble and go back to the joker in the pack on the off chance he might pull off some of the Red Wall again? If so it's Boris.

    Whatever they decide they will be out of office for a bare minimum of one term, probably two and quite possibly three.

    Well done.

    "Whatever they decide they will be out of office for a bare minimum of one term, probably two and quite possibly three."

    Some good news on an otherwise bleak morning then. 👍
    As long as Labour don't go batshit when in office.

    That's the issue with governing parties imploding. They make for weak and ineffective oppositions who let governments get away with a load of crazy shit.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,461
    Heathener said:

    There is NOT 'a 35% chance of Truss winning the next election' as one of her supporters suggests.
    That is complete and utter crap. There is less than a 0.35% chance of her winning now and that's being generous.

    There isn't even a 35% chance of any other tory leader winning.

    You simply do not come back from these sorts of sea-change polling. It's over.

    So it is now ALL about damage limitation. Do they go for near wipeout, Canada style? If so, stay with Truss. Mike is right: she is the ultimate voter non-resonant.

    Do they go for safety and limit losses to around 200 MPs? If so go with Rishi.

    Or do they gamble and go back to the joker in the pack on the off chance he might pull off some of the Red Wall again? If so it's Boris.

    Whatever they decide they will be out of office for a bare minimum of one term, probably two and quite possibly three.

    Well done.

    I think you're right. The voters tune in for a few weeks take note of what's going on and what's gone on recalibrate their thoughts make their minds up and then tune out. Next time they tune in is two years time when they vote
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,912
    edited October 7
    QTWTAIN, no matter how much the commentariat and several dozen sulking Ted Heaths in the PCP wish it to happen.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,755
    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT:

    Do you know in 2006 an absolute majority of the country thought it would be Wrong if a Scottish person was Prime Minister. The BBC did a whole "Politics Show" about it and what a disgcrace it would be if a Scot was at the top

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/politics_show/4757329.stm

    That is NOT what the poll asked or said!!!!!!!

    There have already been a stack of Scottish Prime Ministers. At least 7 who were Scottish and more than 10 who were born in Scotland, with various PMs representing Scottish constituencies.

    The poll was asking whether a Scottish MP should be PM of the United Kingdom, which isn't at all the same question.

    Naughty boy!! ;)
    Fun fact, there have been more PMs born in both Canada and the United States than there have been in Wales.

    Edit - I'm sure this will gladden the heart of @TSE wherever he is on holiday :wink:
    Not for want of trying. In recent years not only Neil Kinnock but Michael Howard too, born in Swansea.

    Any other opposition leaders?

    Only PMs I can think of were Lloyd George and Callaghan.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,361
    edited October 7
    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT:

    Do you know in 2006 an absolute majority of the country thought it would be Wrong if a Scottish person was Prime Minister. The BBC did a whole "Politics Show" about it and what a disgcrace it would be if a Scot was at the top

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/politics_show/4757329.stm

    That is NOT what the poll asked or said!!!!!!!

    There have already been a stack of Scottish Prime Ministers. At least 7 who were Scottish and more than 10 who were born in Scotland, with various PMs representing Scottish constituencies.

    The poll was asking whether a Scottish MP should be PM of the United Kingdom, which isn't at all the same question.

    Naughty boy!! ;)
    Fun fact, there have been more PMs born in both Canada and the United States than there have been in Wales.

    Edit - I'm sure this will gladden the heart of @TSE wherever he is on holiday :wink:
    More born in the USA and Canada than in the West Country (by which I mean Cornwall, Devon, Somerset and Dorset)
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,841
    How to do a Conservative leadership contest?

    Truss's end defined by current rules without the 12 month protection, which is a demonstrated nonsense anyway.

    After that it has to be a conclave. Whether that is solely MPs or involves input from constituency associations (especially those without an MP), just keep voting until someone commands, say, 2/3 support of everyone. Voting records to be open.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,755
    Sandpit said:

    QTWTAIN, no matter how much the commentariat and several dozen sulking Ted Heaths in the PCP wish it to happen.

    There’s really no unity candidate I can think of. They all have factions that hate each other. The likes of Rishi (and Kemi, Penny et al) must surely all be waiting until there’s a chance to run for LOTO.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,461
    CD13 said:

    "My view is that there is something about Liz Truss that makes it hard for her to resonate with the public and that is reflected in the awful poll numbers."

    Mr Smithson, that's exactly the case. She looks artificial. She has a disadvantage in being female there, because I expect men to lie when it suits. Somehow I'm disappointed when women do. Does that count as reverse sexism? I hold women to a higher standard.

    No. Just sexism
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,204
    German import prices up YoY by 33%, that's the worst rise since this index started.

    I think the age of European heavy industry is coming to an end and people aren't awake to it yet. Cheap energy and outsourcing national defence has driven the German economy for 30 years since reunification, neither are on the horizon now.

    We think our politicians fucked up energy investment for the last 20 years, yet it's not nearly as bad as Germany. Worse is that Germany relies far more on heavy industry than the UK, the threat out power outages means offices are shut here but people can wfh, power outages there means days of production equipment sitting idle and huge losses in national output.

    I fear that the continent hasn't yet woken up to what the end of the cheap energy age really means, neither has the UK, yet we're not as exposed due to our already small manufacturing sector.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604
    edited October 7
    Not the sure many Tories will buy the retread that ended the Boris dream. Perhaps by Christmas they will be so desperate they will take anyone. In which case, will it be a Boris-Rishi death-match contest?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    TimS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT:

    Do you know in 2006 an absolute majority of the country thought it would be Wrong if a Scottish person was Prime Minister. The BBC did a whole "Politics Show" about it and what a disgcrace it would be if a Scot was at the top

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/politics_show/4757329.stm

    That is NOT what the poll asked or said!!!!!!!

    There have already been a stack of Scottish Prime Ministers. At least 7 who were Scottish and more than 10 who were born in Scotland, with various PMs representing Scottish constituencies.

    The poll was asking whether a Scottish MP should be PM of the United Kingdom, which isn't at all the same question.

    Naughty boy!! ;)
    Fun fact, there have been more PMs born in both Canada and the United States than there have been in Wales.

    Edit - I'm sure this will gladden the heart of @TSE wherever he is on holiday :wink:
    Not for want of trying. In recent years not only Neil Kinnock but Michael Howard too, born in Swansea.

    Any other opposition leaders?

    Only PMs I can think of were Lloyd George and Callaghan.
    James Callaghan was born in Portsmouth and Lloyd George in Manchester.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,922
    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT:

    Do you know in 2006 an absolute majority of the country thought it would be Wrong if a Scottish person was Prime Minister. The BBC did a whole "Politics Show" about it and what a disgcrace it would be if a Scot was at the top

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/politics_show/4757329.stm

    That is NOT what the poll asked or said!!!!!!!

    There have already been a stack of Scottish Prime Ministers. At least 7 who were Scottish and more than 10 who were born in Scotland, with various PMs representing Scottish constituencies.

    The poll was asking whether a Scottish MP should be PM of the United Kingdom, which isn't at all the same question.

    Naughty boy!! ;)
    Fun fact, there have been more PMs born in both Canada and the United States than there have been in Wales.

    Edit - I'm sure this will gladden the heart of @TSE wherever he is on holiday :wink:
    Born in both of them is impressive! I presume born on the border rather than a second coming?
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Growing commentary along these lines in Washington. About time.

    Some day, the US will not need to pretend to be friends with the Saudi kingdom.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/JamesFallows/status/1578209375474286592

    Quite. Cutting oil production when there is already a somewhat artificial cut because of Russian sanctions and the world economy is teetering on the edge of recession was decidedly unhelpful and a real slap in the face for Biden who had asked them to increase production.

    Once again, however, it is Europe that bears the brunt of this as the US returns to self sufficiency on the back of higher prices. And yet there are still some people complaining that squeezing the last out of the north sea is not compatible with our green priorities: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-63149957
    I find it curious that people look at Saudi cutting oil production and don't grasp the fact that they are probably cutting production because they can't supply it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328
    MaxPB said:

    German import prices up YoY by 33%, that's the worst rise since this index started.

    I think the age of European heavy industry is coming to an end and people aren't awake to it yet. Cheap energy and outsourcing national defence has driven the German economy for 30 years since reunification, neither are on the horizon now.

    We think our politicians fucked up energy investment for the last 20 years, yet it's not nearly as bad as Germany. Worse is that Germany relies far more on heavy industry than the UK, the threat out power outages means offices are shut here but people can wfh, power outages there means days of production equipment sitting idle and huge losses in national output.

    I fear that the continent hasn't yet woken up to what the end of the cheap energy age really means, neither has the UK, yet we're not as exposed due to our already small manufacturing sector.

    But if we can get both wind and tidal scaled up sufficiently we will have the advantages of not being beholden to various despots and a better balance of trade. It won't be as cheap as Russian or ME oil and gas but it will not be a disaster either.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,977
    stjohn said:

    Truss is dreadful and needs to go as soon as possible or the sake of the country. Her refusal to sign off a public information campaign to encourage reduced use of domestic energy ought to be the final nail in her coffin. This is outrageous and irresponsible. We need sensible, calm, leadership at a moment of international crisis, not tin-eared stubborn nonsense. Enough!

    Maybe she’s just using the Streisand effect to her advantage. By not paying for a media campaign, the media will do nothing but talk about it, so she gets more coverage for free.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,220
    Mr Roger,

    I'm not sure recommending Macron because of his 'elegance' is sensible, but each to his own. I know my own limitations - many don't.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT:

    Do you know in 2006 an absolute majority of the country thought it would be Wrong if a Scottish person was Prime Minister. The BBC did a whole "Politics Show" about it and what a disgcrace it would be if a Scot was at the top

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/politics_show/4757329.stm

    That is NOT what the poll asked or said!!!!!!!

    There have already been a stack of Scottish Prime Ministers. At least 7 who were Scottish and more than 10 who were born in Scotland, with various PMs representing Scottish constituencies.

    The poll was asking whether a Scottish MP should be PM of the United Kingdom, which isn't at all the same question.

    Naughty boy!! ;)
    Fun fact, there have been more PMs born in both Canada and the United States than there have been in Wales.

    Edit - I'm sure this will gladden the heart of @TSE wherever he is on holiday :wink:
    Born in both of them is impressive! I presume born on the border rather than a second coming?
    Yeah, I see your point.

    I meant that there have been more prime ministers born in Canada and more prime ministers born in the USA than there have been in Wales.

    Admittedly it's only one each.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,841
    Pro_Rata said:

    How to do a Conservative leadership contest?

    Truss's end defined by current rules without the 12 month protection, which is a demonstrated nonsense anyway.

    After that it has to be a conclave. Whether that is solely MPs or involves input from constituency associations (especially those without an MP), just keep voting until someone commands, say, 2/3 support of everyone. Voting records to be open.

    Also, I think longer term, the genius of royal succession - that the accession of Charles was made front and centre in London Bridge (I guess a nod to medieval times when you wanted to rapidly quosh the big ideas of all those pretenders).

    Labour has a deputy, the Tories have an idea of a stand in, but I wonder about an annually selected heir apparent - get rid of Boris in 2022, already know that means Truss (and, if you no.longer like that, change it next year)

    I mean the power dynamic would be fascinating, but let's face it, the contrast
    between the Tory leadership election and the Royal Succession could not have been starker.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 1,448
    I just don't see the mechanism that puts Rishi in No 10 by Christmas that also doesn't implode the Conservative Party anyway? The membership just voted, and they didn't vote for Rishi. Sure, the MPs seemed to prefer him, but that wasn't enough to get him over the line. And so many big names got behind Truss in the end that, were Rishi to win, he'd have to put them all in the backbenches, stacking them with enemies.

    I also don't see how the 22 committee justifies changing the rules on the leadership election and running a new selection in under 6 months, when the argument is also that a GE can't be held now because we need a functioning government.

    Clearly the Conservative party cannot govern, they just refuse to admit that, and so much of our constitutional order is built on the assumption that politicians have a sense of shame. I can't imagine Truss being able to pass most of the things she's suggesting in the commons, and the Lords would have a good argument to make that certain things lie outside what the manifesto pledges were.

    Whilst I don't expect the turkeys to vote for Christmas, I don't see any other option than a GE sorting this out. And that lies only in Truss' hands, short of a VonC and no other government being able to form.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    Excl: Liz Truss wants to increase the cap on unskilled seasonal workers who can come to the UK from 40,000 to 60,000 per year: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/truss-in-new-split-with-braverman-over-migrants-gj7szbt2z

    It opens up another split on immigration policy with Suella Braverman:
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    German import prices up YoY by 33%, that's the worst rise since this index started.

    I think the age of European heavy industry is coming to an end and people aren't awake to it yet. Cheap energy and outsourcing national defence has driven the German economy for 30 years since reunification, neither are on the horizon now.

    We think our politicians fucked up energy investment for the last 20 years, yet it's not nearly as bad as Germany. Worse is that Germany relies far more on heavy industry than the UK, the threat out power outages means offices are shut here but people can wfh, power outages there means days of production equipment sitting idle and huge losses in national output.

    I fear that the continent hasn't yet woken up to what the end of the cheap energy age really means, neither has the UK, yet we're not as exposed due to our already small manufacturing sector.

    But if we can get both wind and tidal scaled up sufficiently we will have the advantages of not being beholden to various despots and a better balance of trade. It won't be as cheap as Russian or ME oil and gas but it will not be a disaster either.
    Tbh neither of those looks cheap at the moment.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    “Could it be Rishi by Christmas”

    No.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 104,581
    It is only a matter when not if.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819
    148grss said:

    I just don't see the mechanism that puts Rishi in No 10 by Christmas that also doesn't implode the Conservative Party anyway? The membership just voted, and they didn't vote for Rishi. Sure, the MPs seemed to prefer him, but that wasn't enough to get him over the line. And so many big names got behind Truss in the end that, were Rishi to win, he'd have to put them all in the backbenches, stacking them with enemies.

    I also don't see how the 22 committee justifies changing the rules on the leadership election and running a new selection in under 6 months, when the argument is also that a GE can't be held now because we need a functioning government.

    Clearly the Conservative party cannot govern, they just refuse to admit that, and so much of our constitutional order is built on the assumption that politicians have a sense of shame. I can't imagine Truss being able to pass most of the things she's suggesting in the commons, and the Lords would have a good argument to make that certain things lie outside what the manifesto pledges were.

    Whilst I don't expect the turkeys to vote for Christmas, I don't see any other option than a GE sorting this out. And that lies only in Truss' hands, short of a VonC and no other government being able to form.

    I suspect the solution is a VonC followed by a new Tory party leader being selected to avoid an election.

    Although a general election with Liz selling her policies to the general public would be fun to watch as she loses the Tory party votes every time she appears on TV.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    darkage said:

    Given how abysmal and incompetent Liz Truss is, I would not rely on the usual assumptions about how the Conservative party changes its leaders. These are truly unchartered waters.

    They are more likely uncharted.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 1,448
    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    How to do a Conservative leadership contest?

    Truss's end defined by current rules without the 12 month protection, which is a demonstrated nonsense anyway.

    After that it has to be a conclave. Whether that is solely MPs or involves input from constituency associations (especially those without an MP), just keep voting until someone commands, say, 2/3 support of everyone. Voting records to be open.

    Also, I think longer term, the genius of royal succession - that the accession of Charles was made front and centre in London Bridge (I guess a nod to medieval times when you wanted to rapidly quosh the big ideas of all those pretenders).

    Labour has a deputy, the Tories have an idea of a stand in, but I wonder about an annually selected heir apparent - get rid of Boris in 2022, already know that means Truss (and, if you no.longer like that, change it next year)

    I mean the power dynamic would be fascinating, but let's face it, the contrast
    between the Tory leadership election and the Royal Succession could not have been starker.
    As much as many people disliked Brown, the fact he was "heir apparent" in this sense did seem to make things run smoother.

    I don't think it would be unreasonable to make Deputy PM or Deputy Leader of the Party the de facto "if the PM is removed, this person takes the job". Again, I know our typical constitutional order isn't about voting for PM or leaders as such, but the reality is many people do vote that way and having our political system evolve to meet the political practicalities would be beneficial.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    Tory MP backs the idea of an energy saving campaign 👇 https://twitter.com/GuyOpperman/status/1578285712461266944

    Truss can't even get tory MPs to agree on a press campaign.

    I wonder if this is the solution to their problem.

    Constitutionally, the PM is whoever can command a majority in the Commons. That doesn't mean it has to be a party leader. Caroline Lucas could be PM (in theory)

    Truss doesn't command a majority

    Rishi would.

    He could be PM tomorrow
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,353
    Alistair said:

    FTPT:

    Do you know in 2006 an absolute majority of the country thought it would be Wrong if a Scottish person was Prime Minister. The BBC did a whole "Politics Show" about it and what a disgcrace it would be if a Scot was at the top

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/politics_show/4757329.stm

    Och, I’m sure things are better now re. Scots at the top.
    As one noisy 'influencer' said in 2014 'I doubt whether we will ever have been more popular, or in a better position to dictate terms, than if we vote to stay.'
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328
    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Growing commentary along these lines in Washington. About time.

    Some day, the US will not need to pretend to be friends with the Saudi kingdom.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/JamesFallows/status/1578209375474286592

    Quite. Cutting oil production when there is already a somewhat artificial cut because of Russian sanctions and the world economy is teetering on the edge of recession was decidedly unhelpful and a real slap in the face for Biden who had asked them to increase production.

    Once again, however, it is Europe that bears the brunt of this as the US returns to self sufficiency on the back of higher prices. And yet there are still some people complaining that squeezing the last out of the north sea is not compatible with our green priorities: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-63149957
    I find it curious that people look at Saudi cutting oil production and don't grasp the fact that they are probably cutting production because they can't supply it.
    I think that is unlikely. Or rather I hope it is.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    NEW from @IpsosScotland
    ✴️ Half of Scots critical of Scottish Government performance on the NHS
    ✴️ Nicola Sturgeon remains the most popular party leader
    ✴️ Woeful ratings for Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng (1/4) https://twitter.com/EmilyIpsosScot/status/1578288788593586178/photo/1
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 104,581
    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT:

    Do you know in 2006 an absolute majority of the country thought it would be Wrong if a Scottish person was Prime Minister. The BBC did a whole "Politics Show" about it and what a disgcrace it would be if a Scot was at the top

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/politics_show/4757329.stm

    That is NOT what the poll asked or said!!!!!!!

    There have already been a stack of Scottish Prime Ministers. At least 7 who were Scottish and more than 10 who were born in Scotland, with various PMs representing Scottish constituencies.

    The poll was asking whether a Scottish MP should be PM of the United Kingdom, which isn't at all the same question.

    Naughty boy!! ;)
    Fun fact, there have been more PMs born in both Canada and the United States than there have been in Wales.

    Edit - I'm sure this will gladden the heart of @TSE wherever he is on holiday :wink:
    Indeed.

    Heck a Welsh person has been Prime Minister of Australia more recently than we've had a Welsh UK Prime Minister, although if Mark Drakeford, the true Prince of Wales, might break that drought, if he became Labour leader.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,204
    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    German import prices up YoY by 33%, that's the worst rise since this index started.

    I think the age of European heavy industry is coming to an end and people aren't awake to it yet. Cheap energy and outsourcing national defence has driven the German economy for 30 years since reunification, neither are on the horizon now.

    We think our politicians fucked up energy investment for the last 20 years, yet it's not nearly as bad as Germany. Worse is that Germany relies far more on heavy industry than the UK, the threat out power outages means offices are shut here but people can wfh, power outages there means days of production equipment sitting idle and huge losses in national output.

    I fear that the continent hasn't yet woken up to what the end of the cheap energy age really means, neither has the UK, yet we're not as exposed due to our already small manufacturing sector.

    But if we can get both wind and tidal scaled up sufficiently we will have the advantages of not being beholden to various despots and a better balance of trade. It won't be as cheap as Russian or ME oil and gas but it will not be a disaster either.
    Compared to when gas was at its cheapest it's going to be a huge increase. Gas is also very energy dense and that has a lot of uses in industry that electrical power struggles to imitate. We need to increase electricity production by somewhere around 5-7x if we're to end our reliance on gas and oil. Excluding transport that number falls to around 3x - for the UK.

    For Germany it's a much bigger multiple of their non fossil fuel energy production because they're starting from much further back and gave higher energy use. It's legitimately hundreds of billions of Euros in renewables investment at a time when money is no longer cheap and readily available (as our government has discovered) and surging input prices.

    Another key difference is that the UK seems resolved to build nuclear at scale, Germany doesn't seem ti be reconciled to new nuclear, they're still dithering over restarting the existing reactors. That will tell a decade from now, especially if RR aren't bullshitting us about the mini reactors and build time/cost per reactor.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    NEW: Labour extends lead to 22 points in our voting intention tracker.
     
    Lab 48% (+1)
    Con 26% (-1) 
    LibDem 10% (-1)
    Green 6% (nc)
    SNP 4% (nc)
     
    1,636 questioned on 5-6 October. Changes with 28-29 September
     
    Details & data at http://www.technetracker.co.uk https://twitter.com/techneUK/status/1578272661028757505/photo/1
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819
    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    How to do a Conservative leadership contest?

    Truss's end defined by current rules without the 12 month protection, which is a demonstrated nonsense anyway.

    After that it has to be a conclave. Whether that is solely MPs or involves input from constituency associations (especially those without an MP), just keep voting until someone commands, say, 2/3 support of everyone. Voting records to be open.

    Also, I think longer term, the genius of royal succession - that the accession of Charles was made front and centre in London Bridge (I guess a nod to medieval times when you wanted to rapidly quosh the big ideas of all those pretenders).

    Labour has a deputy, the Tories have an idea of a stand in, but I wonder about an annually selected heir apparent - get rid of Boris in 2022, already know that means Truss (and, if you no.longer like that, change it next year)

    I mean the power dynamic would be fascinating, but let's face it, the contrast
    between the Tory leadership election and the Royal Succession could not have been starker.
    In theory the Tory party have a deputy ready to go.

    Problem is she is the archetypal comedic effect Health Minister shown on a poor quality political comedy show.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,075
    MaxPB said:

    German import prices up YoY by 33%, that's the worst rise since this index started.

    I think the age of European heavy industry is coming to an end and people aren't awake to it yet. Cheap energy and outsourcing national defence has driven the German economy for 30 years since reunification, neither are on the horizon now.

    We think our politicians fucked up energy investment for the last 20 years, yet it's not nearly as bad as Germany. Worse is that Germany relies far more on heavy industry than the UK, the threat out power outages means offices are shut here but people can wfh, power outages there means days of production equipment sitting idle and huge losses in national output.

    I fear that the continent hasn't yet woken up to what the end of the cheap energy age really means, neither has the UK, yet we're not as exposed due to our already small manufacturing sector.

    Good morning

    Germany is in a very poor place and Merkel's legacy is turning out to be a disaster for Germany with her idiotic decisions on nuclear power and her closeness to Russia

    In other news the one pleasing report this morning is that Truss and Macron got on very well with agreement to move forward together on energy security and the channel crossings and other related matters

    It is also expected a deal between the UK and EU re Northern Ireland is near and that too would be welcome
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    edited October 7
    Heathener said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT:

    Do you know in 2006 an absolute majority of the country thought it would be Wrong if a Scottish person was Prime Minister. The BBC did a whole "Politics Show" about it and what a disgcrace it would be if a Scot was at the top

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/politics_show/4757329.stm

    That is NOT what the poll asked or said!!!!!!!

    There have already been a stack of Scottish Prime Ministers. At least 7 who were Scottish and more than 10 who were born in Scotland, with various PMs representing Scottish constituencies.

    The poll was asking whether an MP of the Scottish Parliament could also be PM of the United Kingdom, which isn't at all the same question.

    Naughty boy!! ;)
    No it wasn't.

    I watched the program and can read the question. It was if a Scottish MP at Westminster could be PM. If it was about a dual MSP/MP the question would say MSP.

    Now that Scotland has its own Parliament, dealing with internal Scottish affairs, in future do you think it is right or wrong that a Scottish MP can become Prime Minister of the whole UK?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,075
    Pulpstar said:

    “Could it be Rishi by Christmas”

    No.

    I agree
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,353
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW from @IpsosScotland
    ✴️ Half of Scots critical of Scottish Government performance on the NHS
    ✴️ Nicola Sturgeon remains the most popular party leader
    ✴️ Woeful ratings for Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng (1/4) https://twitter.com/EmilyIpsosScot/status/1578288788593586178/photo/1

    SKS on -1!
    The McKeirgasm was pretty short lived.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    German import prices up YoY by 33%, that's the worst rise since this index started.

    I think the age of European heavy industry is coming to an end and people aren't awake to it yet. Cheap energy and outsourcing national defence has driven the German economy for 30 years since reunification, neither are on the horizon now.

    We think our politicians fucked up energy investment for the last 20 years, yet it's not nearly as bad as Germany. Worse is that Germany relies far more on heavy industry than the UK, the threat out power outages means offices are shut here but people can wfh, power outages there means days of production equipment sitting idle and huge losses in national output.

    I fear that the continent hasn't yet woken up to what the end of the cheap energy age really means, neither has the UK, yet we're not as exposed due to our already small manufacturing sector.

    But if we can get both wind and tidal scaled up sufficiently we will have the advantages of not being beholden to various despots and a better balance of trade. It won't be as cheap as Russian or ME oil and gas but it will not be a disaster either.
    Compared to when gas was at its cheapest it's going to be a huge increase. Gas is also very energy dense and that has a lot of uses in industry that electrical power struggles to imitate. We need to increase electricity production by somewhere around 5-7x if we're to end our reliance on gas and oil. Excluding transport that number falls to around 3x - for the UK.

    For Germany it's a much bigger multiple of their non fossil fuel energy production because they're starting from much further back and gave higher energy use. It's legitimately hundreds of billions of Euros in renewables investment at a time when money is no longer cheap and readily available (as our government has discovered) and surging input prices.

    Another key difference is that the UK seems resolved to build nuclear at scale, Germany doesn't seem ti be reconciled to new nuclear, they're still dithering over restarting the existing reactors. That will tell a decade from now, especially if RR aren't bullshitting us about the mini reactors and build time/cost per reactor.
    Hard to say if RR are bullshitting or not but, given they already build (smaller) mini reactors they must have a way better clue as to actual costs than anyone else.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,204

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW from @IpsosScotland
    ✴️ Half of Scots critical of Scottish Government performance on the NHS
    ✴️ Nicola Sturgeon remains the most popular party leader
    ✴️ Woeful ratings for Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng (1/4) https://twitter.com/EmilyIpsosScot/status/1578288788593586178/photo/1

    SKS on -1!
    The McKeirgasm was pretty short lived.
    -1 net is a pretty good rating.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,364
    edited October 7
    Scott_xP said:

    Excl: Liz Truss wants to increase the cap on unskilled seasonal workers who can come to the UK from 40,000 to 60,000 per year: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/truss-in-new-split-with-braverman-over-migrants-gj7szbt2z

    It opens up another split on immigration policy with Suella Braverman:

    Given that Suella Braverman disagrees with government policy on both immigration and leaving the ECHR, there must be the suspicion that she has been given the Home Office as a poison chalice.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT:

    Do you know in 2006 an absolute majority of the country thought it would be Wrong if a Scottish person was Prime Minister. The BBC did a whole "Politics Show" about it and what a disgcrace it would be if a Scot was at the top

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/politics_show/4757329.stm

    That is NOT what the poll asked or said!!!!!!!

    There have already been a stack of Scottish Prime Ministers. At least 7 who were Scottish and more than 10 who were born in Scotland, with various PMs representing Scottish constituencies.

    The poll was asking whether a Scottish MP should be PM of the United Kingdom, which isn't at all the same question.

    Naughty boy!! ;)
    Fun fact, there have been more PMs born in both Canada and the United States than there have been in Wales.

    Edit - I'm sure this will gladden the heart of @TSE wherever he is on holiday :wink:
    Indeed.

    Heck a Welsh person has been Prime Minister of Australia more recently than we've had a Welsh UK Prime Minister, although if Mark Drakeford, the true Prince of Wales, might break that drought, if he became Labour leader.
    That is a good point I had not thought of.

    There have been more British PMs born in Canada than in Wales.
    There have been more British PMs born in America than in Wales.
    There have been more Australian than British PMs born in Wales.

    And the Scots complain about a lack of influence?
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 1,448
    eek said:

    148grss said:

    I just don't see the mechanism that puts Rishi in No 10 by Christmas that also doesn't implode the Conservative Party anyway? The membership just voted, and they didn't vote for Rishi. Sure, the MPs seemed to prefer him, but that wasn't enough to get him over the line. And so many big names got behind Truss in the end that, were Rishi to win, he'd have to put them all in the backbenches, stacking them with enemies.

    I also don't see how the 22 committee justifies changing the rules on the leadership election and running a new selection in under 6 months, when the argument is also that a GE can't be held now because we need a functioning government.

    Clearly the Conservative party cannot govern, they just refuse to admit that, and so much of our constitutional order is built on the assumption that politicians have a sense of shame. I can't imagine Truss being able to pass most of the things she's suggesting in the commons, and the Lords would have a good argument to make that certain things lie outside what the manifesto pledges were.

    Whilst I don't expect the turkeys to vote for Christmas, I don't see any other option than a GE sorting this out. And that lies only in Truss' hands, short of a VonC and no other government being able to form.

    I suspect the solution is a VonC followed by a new Tory party leader being selected to avoid an election.

    Although a general election with Liz selling her policies to the general public would be fun to watch as she loses the Tory party votes every time she appears on TV.
    But would enough Trussites / Johnsonites not be willing to mess with a Rishi government? If Tory unity / discipline is this shot under Truss, and Truss did beat Rishi, why should it be better if Rishi got in charge? Would his cabinet be significantly different?

    Not to mention that there is very little evidence that Rishi would have the ability to get back the popularity Truss has lost - some of the damage has already been done regarding mortgages and pensions, and Rishi seems unlikely to do anything that could change that.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,220
    Being fair to Merkel and Germany, they had a heavy contingent of Greens influencing them, so that made them anti-nuclear too. A perfect storm when the fossil fuel supplies became tight.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,841
    FPT:
    How it is done elsewhere:

    https://easymilano.com/when-can-we-switch-on-the-heating-in-italy/

    Given a sizeable number of people live in communal apartments, this is a pretty broad regulation defining the date central heating can be switched on, how many hours a day it can run and what it can be set to. It is split by zone, from a few Alpine locations where limitations are minimal, to the South where the heating is only allowed to come on 5 hours a day for a few weeks a year.

    Also note the article is from 2020 - Italy's approach this year has been to reset the regulations as 1 degree less on the the thermostat, one hour less per day, one week less on the start and end dates (broadly, I liked the idea and it is how I've set up my heating for winter)



  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 104,581
    edited October 7
    Alistair said:

    Heathener said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT:

    Do you know in 2006 an absolute majority of the country thought it would be Wrong if a Scottish person was Prime Minister. The BBC did a whole "Politics Show" about it and what a disgcrace it would be if a Scot was at the top

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/politics_show/4757329.stm

    That is NOT what the poll asked or said!!!!!!!

    There have already been a stack of Scottish Prime Ministers. At least 7 who were Scottish and more than 10 who were born in Scotland, with various PMs representing Scottish constituencies.

    The poll was asking whether an MP of the Scottish Parliament could also be PM of the United Kingdom, which isn't at all the same question.

    Naughty boy!! ;)
    No it wasn't.

    I watched the program and can read the question. It was if a Scottish MP at Westminster could be PM. If it was about an MSP the question would say MSP.

    Now that Scotland has its own Parliament, dealing with internal Scottish affairs, in future do you think it is right or wrong that a Scottish MP can become Prime Minister of the whole UK?
    IIRC Ben Page said the question was clouded by the fact that Gordon Brown and Labour polled very badly at that time and the fact we had a Scottish born PM for nearly a decade at the time which also had an impact.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,353
    Alistair said:

    Heathener said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT:

    Do you know in 2006 an absolute majority of the country thought it would be Wrong if a Scottish person was Prime Minister. The BBC did a whole "Politics Show" about it and what a disgcrace it would be if a Scot was at the top

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/politics_show/4757329.stm

    That is NOT what the poll asked or said!!!!!!!

    There have already been a stack of Scottish Prime Ministers. At least 7 who were Scottish and more than 10 who were born in Scotland, with various PMs representing Scottish constituencies.

    The poll was asking whether an MP of the Scottish Parliament could also be PM of the United Kingdom, which isn't at all the same question.

    Naughty boy!! ;)
    No it wasn't.

    I watched the program and can read the question. It was if a Scottish MP at Westminster could be PM. If it was about a dual MSP/MP the question would say MSP.

    Now that Scotland has its own Parliament, dealing with internal Scottish affairs, in future do you think it is right or wrong that a Scottish MP can become Prime Minister of the whole UK?
    Quite, what would be the fcuking point of asking whether an MSP could become PM?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    Alistair said:

    Heathener said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT:

    Do you know in 2006 an absolute majority of the country thought it would be Wrong if a Scottish person was Prime Minister. The BBC did a whole "Politics Show" about it and what a disgcrace it would be if a Scot was at the top

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/politics_show/4757329.stm

    That is NOT what the poll asked or said!!!!!!!

    There have already been a stack of Scottish Prime Ministers. At least 7 who were Scottish and more than 10 who were born in Scotland, with various PMs representing Scottish constituencies.

    The poll was asking whether an MP of the Scottish Parliament could also be PM of the United Kingdom, which isn't at all the same question.

    Naughty boy!! ;)
    No it wasn't.

    I watched the program and can read the question. It was if a Scottish MP at Westminster could be PM. If it was about a dual MSP/MP the question would say MSP.

    Now that Scotland has its own Parliament, dealing with internal Scottish affairs, in future do you think it is right or wrong that a Scottish MP can become Prime Minister of the whole UK?
    And it didn't stop him...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,204
    Pro_Rata said:

    FPT:
    How it is done elsewhere:

    https://easymilano.com/when-can-we-switch-on-the-heating-in-italy/

    Given a sizeable number of people live in communal apartments, this is a pretty broad regulation defining the date central heating can be switched on, how many hours a day it can run and what it can be set to. It is split by zone, from a few Alpine locations where limitations are minimal, to the South where the heating is only allowed to come on 5 hours a day for a few weeks a year.

    Also note the article is from 2020 - Italy's approach this year has been to reset the regulations as 1 degree less on the the thermostat, one hour less per day, one week less on the start and end dates (broadly, I liked the idea and it is how I've set up my heating for winter)



    That seems sensible. A similar campaign here could mean no risk of blackouts. Liz Truss is an idiot.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,977

    MaxPB said:

    German import prices up YoY by 33%, that's the worst rise since this index started.

    I think the age of European heavy industry is coming to an end and people aren't awake to it yet. Cheap energy and outsourcing national defence has driven the German economy for 30 years since reunification, neither are on the horizon now.

    We think our politicians fucked up energy investment for the last 20 years, yet it's not nearly as bad as Germany. Worse is that Germany relies far more on heavy industry than the UK, the threat out power outages means offices are shut here but people can wfh, power outages there means days of production equipment sitting idle and huge losses in national output.

    I fear that the continent hasn't yet woken up to what the end of the cheap energy age really means, neither has the UK, yet we're not as exposed due to our already small manufacturing sector.

    Good morning

    Germany is in a very poor place and Merkel's legacy is turning out to be a disaster for Germany with her idiotic decisions on nuclear power and her closeness to Russia

    In other news the one pleasing report this morning is that Truss and Macron got on very well with agreement to move forward together on energy security and the channel crossings and other related matters

    It is also expected a deal between the UK and EU re Northern Ireland is near and that too would be welcome
    The latest controversy to hit the German government is about agreeing to supply more weapons to Saudi Arabia following Scholz's visit. OPEC going on to cut energy supplies must be a bit of a kick in the teeth.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    148grss said:

    But would enough Trussites / Johnsonites not be willing to mess with a Rishi government? If Tory unity / discipline is this shot under Truss, and Truss did beat Rishi, why should it be better if Rishi got in charge? Would his cabinet be significantly different?

    Rishi beat Truss with MPs, which is the constituency that matters
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,922
    Any sensible preparations for winter power cuts ahead? Buying a couple of decent usb torches and a usb reading light. A chance to catch up on some reading.

    What about power back ups for PCs? Seems they don't last very long and guess home wifi wont work either so benefit would be safely closing down rather than keeping it online?

    Anything I can do for fridge/freezer?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,922
    Scott_xP said:

    148grss said:

    But would enough Trussites / Johnsonites not be willing to mess with a Rishi government? If Tory unity / discipline is this shot under Truss, and Truss did beat Rishi, why should it be better if Rishi got in charge? Would his cabinet be significantly different?

    Rishi beat Truss with MPs, which is the constituency that matters
    Self evidently it is not! And as per pp, Rishi would not have a majority in the Commons either, enough Trussites and Borisonians to see to that.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,204

    Any sensible preparations for winter power cuts ahead? Buying a couple of decent usb torches and a usb reading light. A chance to catch up on some reading.

    What about power back ups for PCs? Seems they don't last very long and guess home wifi wont work either so benefit would be safely closing down rather than keeping it online?

    Anything I can do for fridge/freezer?

    https://amzn.eu/d/47wXP9m

    It's an expensive solution but it will keep your stuff running for quite a while.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,922
    Scott_xP said:

    Tory MP backs the idea of an energy saving campaign 👇 https://twitter.com/GuyOpperman/status/1578285712461266944

    Truss can't even get tory MPs to agree on a press campaign.

    I wonder if this is the solution to their problem.

    Constitutionally, the PM is whoever can command a majority in the Commons. That doesn't mean it has to be a party leader. Caroline Lucas could be PM (in theory)

    Truss doesn't command a majority

    Rishi would.

    He could be PM tomorrow

    If the government won't do it, the country should crowdfund the £15m. It will more than pay us back.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225

    Rishi would not have a majority in the Commons either, enough Trussites and Borisonians to see to that.

    Nope

    Support Rishi or they are out of a job.

    Grab them by the balls and their hearts and minds will follow...
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 766
    Gove?

    First and last paragraph of Simon Jenkins in the Guardian ."Never underestimate the Tory party. It has confined Labour to just 13 of the past 43 years in office. It never gives in without a fight and is unafraid of ruthlessly toppling leaders. The latest, Liz Truss, has shown herself in just four weeks to have been a major mistake. The party has two years to correct that mistake before facing the electorate.............In reality, the task for a caretaker leader is not to win the next election, it is to persuade the Conservatives that electoral humiliation under Truss can be avoided. The party needs to rediscover itself, to put the turmoil of Brexit, lockdown and Truss behind it. Most of all, it needs to become a united and effective opposition to a forthcoming Starmer administration. Gove is the person to preside over that transition."
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,353
    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW from @IpsosScotland
    ✴️ Half of Scots critical of Scottish Government performance on the NHS
    ✴️ Nicola Sturgeon remains the most popular party leader
    ✴️ Woeful ratings for Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng (1/4) https://twitter.com/EmilyIpsosScot/status/1578288788593586178/photo/1

    SKS on -1!
    The McKeirgasm was pretty short lived.
    -1 net is a pretty good rating.
    Sure, better than -60, not as good as +8.
    I was thinking more of the recent febrile excitement on here over a poll showing SKS being more poplular than Sturgeon.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    edited October 7

    Any sensible preparations for winter power cuts ahead? Buying a couple of decent usb torches and a usb reading light. A chance to catch up on some reading.

    What about power back ups for PCs? Seems they don't last very long and guess home wifi wont work either so benefit would be safely closing down rather than keeping it online?

    Anything I can do for fridge/freezer?

    I hope they'll say when these power cuts might be as we'll have to prep a thermos flask up for junior beforehand.
    As will every other bottle feeding parent without a gas hob.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,204

    MaxPB said:

    German import prices up YoY by 33%, that's the worst rise since this index started.

    I think the age of European heavy industry is coming to an end and people aren't awake to it yet. Cheap energy and outsourcing national defence has driven the German economy for 30 years since reunification, neither are on the horizon now.

    We think our politicians fucked up energy investment for the last 20 years, yet it's not nearly as bad as Germany. Worse is that Germany relies far more on heavy industry than the UK, the threat out power outages means offices are shut here but people can wfh, power outages there means days of production equipment sitting idle and huge losses in national output.

    I fear that the continent hasn't yet woken up to what the end of the cheap energy age really means, neither has the UK, yet we're not as exposed due to our already small manufacturing sector.

    Good morning

    Germany is in a very poor place and Merkel's legacy is turning out to be a disaster for Germany with her idiotic decisions on nuclear power and her closeness to Russia

    In other news the one pleasing report this morning is that Truss and Macron got on very well with agreement to move forward together on energy security and the channel crossings and other related matters

    It is also expected a deal between the UK and EU re Northern Ireland is near and that too would be welcome
    The latest controversy to hit the German government is about agreeing to supply more weapons to Saudi Arabia following Scholz's visit. OPEC going on to cut energy supplies must be a bit of a kick in the teeth.
    Also predictable. I don't understand why the base assumption isn't that a cartel will do whatever is necessary to keep prices high.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,841
    eek said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    How to do a Conservative leadership contest?

    Truss's end defined by current rules without the 12 month protection, which is a demonstrated nonsense anyway.

    After that it has to be a conclave. Whether that is solely MPs or involves input from constituency associations (especially those without an MP), just keep voting until someone commands, say, 2/3 support of everyone. Voting records to be open.

    Also, I think longer term, the genius of royal succession - that the accession of Charles was made front and centre in London Bridge (I guess a nod to medieval times when you wanted to rapidly quosh the big ideas of all those pretenders).

    Labour has a deputy, the Tories have an idea of a stand in, but I wonder about an annually selected heir apparent - get rid of Boris in 2022, already know that means Truss (and, if you no.longer like that, change it next year)

    I mean the power dynamic would be fascinating, but let's face it, the contrast
    between the Tory leadership election and the Royal Succession could not have been starker.
    In theory the Tory party have a deputy ready to go.

    Problem is she is the archetypal comedic effect Health Minister shown on a poor quality political comedy show.
    The difference here is that Coffey, if she stepped in, would be regarded as a stopgap until a new leader was found. The same is true, but with more party constitution behind it, for Rayner stepping in.

    An heir apparent, as I'm suggesting it (and, OK, this is a bit of a kite fly), would be a permanent leader in waiting, against whom the wisdom of any plots against the current leader could be clearly viewed. Thus the need for regular re-election as stars rise and fall.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,204
    Pulpstar said:

    Any sensible preparations for winter power cuts ahead? Buying a couple of decent usb torches and a usb reading light. A chance to catch up on some reading.

    What about power back ups for PCs? Seems they don't last very long and guess home wifi wont work either so benefit would be safely closing down rather than keeping it online?

    Anything I can do for fridge/freezer?

    I hope they'll say when these power cuts might be as we'll have to prep a thermos flask up for junior beforehand.
    As will every other bottle feeding parent without a gas hob.
    Get a mains replication power supply. We've got the RR of them but you can pick one up that will run a microwave for a few hours for £200-300. It may be dark but at least your kid will have warm milk/formula.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,644
    MaxPB said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    FPT:
    How it is done elsewhere:

    https://easymilano.com/when-can-we-switch-on-the-heating-in-italy/

    Given a sizeable number of people live in communal apartments, this is a pretty broad regulation defining the date central heating can be switched on, how many hours a day it can run and what it can be set to. It is split by zone, from a few Alpine locations where limitations are minimal, to the South where the heating is only allowed to come on 5 hours a day for a few weeks a year.

    Also note the article is from 2020 - Italy's approach this year has been to reset the regulations as 1 degree less on the the thermostat, one hour less per day, one week less on the start and end dates (broadly, I liked the idea and it is how I've set up my heating for winter)



    That seems sensible. A similar campaign here could mean no risk of blackouts. Liz Truss is an idiot.
    I think there is an aversion to the state telling you how to behave at play. I keep seeing posters suggest that the cost pressure has been removed from energy costs this winter. This is simply not true - its been heavily mitigated for sure, but most folk are seeing energy bills go up. At the same time the media is all over this with 'how reduce your bills' stories. Thats what the people pay attention too - Phil and Holly, or the One Show, not government broadcasts.

    People will be taking action to save money this winter and this will help reduce consumption, all without the state having to do anything.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,364
    148grss said:

    eek said:

    148grss said:

    I just don't see the mechanism that puts Rishi in No 10 by Christmas that also doesn't implode the Conservative Party anyway? The membership just voted, and they didn't vote for Rishi. Sure, the MPs seemed to prefer him, but that wasn't enough to get him over the line. And so many big names got behind Truss in the end that, were Rishi to win, he'd have to put them all in the backbenches, stacking them with enemies.

    I also don't see how the 22 committee justifies changing the rules on the leadership election and running a new selection in under 6 months, when the argument is also that a GE can't be held now because we need a functioning government.

    Clearly the Conservative party cannot govern, they just refuse to admit that, and so much of our constitutional order is built on the assumption that politicians have a sense of shame. I can't imagine Truss being able to pass most of the things she's suggesting in the commons, and the Lords would have a good argument to make that certain things lie outside what the manifesto pledges were.

    Whilst I don't expect the turkeys to vote for Christmas, I don't see any other option than a GE sorting this out. And that lies only in Truss' hands, short of a VonC and no other government being able to form.

    I suspect the solution is a VonC followed by a new Tory party leader being selected to avoid an election.

    Although a general election with Liz selling her policies to the general public would be fun to watch as she loses the Tory party votes every time she appears on TV.
    But would enough Trussites / Johnsonites not be willing to mess with a Rishi government? If Tory unity / discipline is this shot under Truss, and Truss did beat Rishi, why should it be better if Rishi got in charge? Would his cabinet be significantly different?

    Not to mention that there is very little evidence that Rishi would have the ability to get back the popularity Truss has lost - some of the damage has already been done regarding mortgages and pensions, and Rishi seems unlikely to do anything that could change that.
    The present Cabinet is notably partisan. LizT's successor would be well-advised to appoint a more balanced Cabinet. If you look at Mrs Thatcher's first Cabinet, it is stuffed to the gills with wets and grandees. The same is true of most Prime Ministers, even Boris to an extent. So yes, Rishi (or anyone) is more likely to keep MPs onside.

    Rishi is also, of all the contenders, most market-friendly. That he publicly predicted what would happen in response to Kwasi's not-budget is the cherry on the cake.

    But most significant will be the polls. Truss is toast because the polls show most Conservative MPs losing their seats. Her successor needs to change that.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Any sensible preparations for winter power cuts ahead? Buying a couple of decent usb torches and a usb reading light. A chance to catch up on some reading.

    What about power back ups for PCs? Seems they don't last very long and guess home wifi wont work either so benefit would be safely closing down rather than keeping it online?

    Anything I can do for fridge/freezer?

    I hope they'll say when these power cuts might be as we'll have to prep a thermos flask up for junior beforehand.
    As will every other bottle feeding parent without a gas hob.
    Get a mains replication power supply. We've got the RR of them but you can pick one up that will run a microwave for a few hours for £200-300. It may be dark but at least your kid will have warm milk/formula.
    We're pretty used to doing the whole flask thing on trips out so it'll be no bother to do that tbh.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    "Energy sense is common sense"

    In 1976 the government asked Delia Smith to front the "Save It" energy campaign to help reduce public consumption

    Ministers claimed it saved the country £330m... https://twitter.com/labour_history/status/1578274998334410754/video/1
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,912
    edited October 7

    Any sensible preparations for winter power cuts ahead? Buying a couple of decent usb torches and a usb reading light. A chance to catch up on some reading.

    What about power back ups for PCs? Seems they don't last very long and guess home wifi wont work either so benefit would be safely closing down rather than keeping it online?

    Anything I can do for fridge/freezer?

    Blankets and jumpers.

    Torch for reading light.

    Portable camping gas stove and a stove kettle - most regular gas cookers won’t run with no power, they have a safety cutout.

    For a desktop PC, get a UPS.

    You can get a device called an inverter, that will turn your car engine into a generator and give 240v. It’ll be enough to run the PC, wifi router, and chargers for phones, laptops, torches etc
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/LVYUAN-Inverter-Converter-Cigarette-Lighter/dp/B08PS1LKCP/
    Don’t run the inverter without the engine running (it will kill the battery in minutes!), make sure your car can’t be stolen if left with the engine running, and don’t run out of petrol!

    Fridge/freezer not much, but a modern one will keep cold for a couple of days if you don’t open it. You could run it from the inverter for a bit, if nothing else is plugged in.

    Get a generator if you really need power for more than just emergencies, it’s more efficient than using the car!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,146
    edited October 7
    Even if Truss did go if she was replaced by Rishi that would lead to civil war in the party after the membership rejected him just a month ago.

    No, the only viable alternative to Truss before the next general election who could unify the party and be more electable is Ben Wallace. With Sunak maybe brought back as Chancellor to replace Kwarteng. A Wallace government could then ensure the Cabinet represents all wings of the party. Wallace would be Howard to Truss' IDS, unlikely to win but reunifies the party
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819
    MaxPB said:

    Any sensible preparations for winter power cuts ahead? Buying a couple of decent usb torches and a usb reading light. A chance to catch up on some reading.

    What about power back ups for PCs? Seems they don't last very long and guess home wifi wont work either so benefit would be safely closing down rather than keeping it online?

    Anything I can do for fridge/freezer?

    https://amzn.eu/d/47wXP9m

    It's an expensive solution but it will keep your stuff running for quite a while.
    My only advice would be to wait and see if it ends up being discounted in Amazon's sale on Monday / Tuesday.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 1,448
    Scott_xP said:

    Rishi would not have a majority in the Commons either, enough Trussites and Borisonians to see to that.

    Nope

    Support Rishi or they are out of a job.

    Grab them by the balls and their hearts and minds will follow...
    I mean enough of them might be out of a job either way, so what does it matter being spiteful on the way out?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,755

    MaxPB said:

    German import prices up YoY by 33%, that's the worst rise since this index started.

    I think the age of European heavy industry is coming to an end and people aren't awake to it yet. Cheap energy and outsourcing national defence has driven the German economy for 30 years since reunification, neither are on the horizon now.

    We think our politicians fucked up energy investment for the last 20 years, yet it's not nearly as bad as Germany. Worse is that Germany relies far more on heavy industry than the UK, the threat out power outages means offices are shut here but people can wfh, power outages there means days of production equipment sitting idle and huge losses in national output.

    I fear that the continent hasn't yet woken up to what the end of the cheap energy age really means, neither has the UK, yet we're not as exposed due to our already small manufacturing sector.

    Good morning

    Germany is in a very poor place and Merkel's legacy is turning out to be a disaster for Germany with her idiotic decisions on nuclear power and her closeness to Russia

    In other news the one pleasing report this morning is that Truss and Macron got on very well with agreement to move forward together on energy security and the channel crossings and other related matters

    It is also expected a deal between the UK and EU re Northern Ireland is near and that too would be welcome
    The latest controversy to hit the German government is about agreeing to supply more weapons to Saudi Arabia following Scholz's visit. OPEC going on to cut energy supplies must be a bit of a kick in the teeth.
    The last 12 months should have finally lifted the scales from many eyes, though I expect that may take a while. The resource exporters hold Europe in a form of usury that it desperately needs to break out of.

    There is a wonderful future of energy security and cheap power on offer once we have fully decarbonised our European energy mix, or at least to the extent of no longer relying on authoritarian states to supply us. We just need to get on with the transition as a matter of urgency.

    Every time Putin tries geopolitical blackmail or the OPEC cartel make opportunistic decisions like this week, they put another nail in their coffin as petro-states and drive the rest of the world towards independence.
This discussion has been closed.