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The Speccie speculates – “Rishi by Christmas?” – politicalbetting.com
The Speccie speculates – “Rishi by Christmas?” – politicalbetting.com
With the huge collapse in the Tory poll ratings and the terrible approval numbers Truss there is clearly is a lot of speculation going on about what happens next for the Tory Party.
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It is clear that Liz is a supply PM though. No-one is going to waste any political capital shoring her up. She is already withering in front of us.
Howard was able to emerge as a unity figure because it was clear he was only a temporary leader, and he had sufficient respect from all sides. The pace of the Brexit Revolution within the Tories has been such that all of the old party grandees are cast as bitter Remoaners (so are not ideologically trusted by the right), and any other potential figure is seen as an active rival.
There will be a way for a smooth and very rapid transition.
Some day, the US will not need to pretend to be friends with the Saudi kingdom.
https://mobile.twitter.com/JamesFallows/status/1578209375474286592
https://mobile.twitter.com/SarahLongwell25/status/1578197739929624576
Just did a focus group with Georgia swing voters (Trump ‘16/Biden ‘20). A youngish group. Many not following politics closely. Half had not heard the new allegations against Herschel Walker. If election were held today 100% went Kemp for Gov. All but one went Warnock for Senate.
Woof Woof ..
I think Truss is going down with the ship, the only question is when.
Mr Smithson, that's exactly the case. She looks artificial. She has a disadvantage in being female there, because I expect men to lie when it suits. Somehow I'm disappointed when women do. Does that count as reverse sexism? I hold women to a higher standard.
Everyone knows this is over. Everyone outside the cabal. That The Spectator is musing on Rishi this year shows you how the party enthusiasts have already given up on Mistress Truss.
Sunak would be sensible to try and assemble a unity cabinet of all the talents. May as Foreign Secretary? Hunt back at Health. Give Boris David Mellor's old job as "Minister of Fun".
I am genuinely baffled by who wants to buy a newspaper to see a photo of D-list "celebs" coming out this hotel to go the mile up the road to the studio.
A number of Tories who had been on Mr Johnson’s peerage list have been removed since Liz Truss took office last month. It is unclear why. More last-minute changes could be yet to be made.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/06/leaked-list-reveals-brexiteers-tory-donors-due-get-peerages/ (£££)
Once again, however, it is Europe that bears the brunt of this as the US returns to self sufficiency on the back of higher prices. And yet there are still some people complaining that squeezing the last out of the north sea is not compatible with our green priorities: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-63149957
It would do our international reputation a power of good if we had a leader who made us look decent again. I don't believe we can afford to wait two years till Starmer takes over
That is complete and utter crap. There is less than a 0.35% chance of her winning now and that's being generous.
There isn't even a 35% chance of any other tory leader winning.
You simply do not come back from these sorts of sea-change polling. It's over.
So it is now ALL about damage limitation. Do they go for near wipeout, Canada style? If so, stay with Truss. Mike is right: she is the ultimate voter non-resonant.
Do they go for safety and limit losses to around 200 MPs? If so go with Rishi.
Or do they gamble and go back to the joker in the pack on the off chance he might pull off some of the Red Wall again? If so it's Boris.
Whatever they decide they will be out of office for a bare minimum of one term, probably two and quite possibly three.
Well done.
Do you know in 2006 an absolute majority of the country thought it would be Wrong if a Scottish person was Prime Minister. The BBC did a whole "Politics Show" about it and what a disgcrace it would be if a Scot was at the top
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/politics_show/4757329.stm
Some good news on an otherwise bleak morning then. 👍
There have already been a stack of Scottish Prime Ministers. At least 7 who were Scottish and more than 10 who were born in Scotland, with various PMs representing Scottish constituencies.
The poll was asking whether an MP of the Scottish Parliament could also be PM of the United Kingdom, which isn't at all the same question.
Naughty boy!!
Edit - I'm sure this will gladden the heart of @TSE wherever he is on holiday
That's the issue with governing parties imploding. They make for weak and ineffective oppositions who let governments get away with a load of crazy shit.
Any other opposition leaders?
Only PMs I can think of were Lloyd George and Callaghan.
Truss's end defined by current rules without the 12 month protection, which is a demonstrated nonsense anyway.
After that it has to be a conclave. Whether that is solely MPs or involves input from constituency associations (especially those without an MP), just keep voting until someone commands, say, 2/3 support of everyone. Voting records to be open.
I think the age of European heavy industry is coming to an end and people aren't awake to it yet. Cheap energy and outsourcing national defence has driven the German economy for 30 years since reunification, neither are on the horizon now.
We think our politicians fucked up energy investment for the last 20 years, yet it's not nearly as bad as Germany. Worse is that Germany relies far more on heavy industry than the UK, the threat out power outages means offices are shut here but people can wfh, power outages there means days of production equipment sitting idle and huge losses in national output.
I fear that the continent hasn't yet woken up to what the end of the cheap energy age really means, neither has the UK, yet we're not as exposed due to our already small manufacturing sector.
I'm not sure recommending Macron because of his 'elegance' is sensible, but each to his own. I know my own limitations - many don't.
I meant that there have been more prime ministers born in Canada and more prime ministers born in the USA than there have been in Wales.
Admittedly it's only one each.
Labour has a deputy, the Tories have an idea of a stand in, but I wonder about an annually selected heir apparent - get rid of Boris in 2022, already know that means Truss (and, if you no.longer like that, change it next year)
I mean the power dynamic would be fascinating, but let's face it, the contrast
between the Tory leadership election and the Royal Succession could not have been starker.
I also don't see how the 22 committee justifies changing the rules on the leadership election and running a new selection in under 6 months, when the argument is also that a GE can't be held now because we need a functioning government.
Clearly the Conservative party cannot govern, they just refuse to admit that, and so much of our constitutional order is built on the assumption that politicians have a sense of shame. I can't imagine Truss being able to pass most of the things she's suggesting in the commons, and the Lords would have a good argument to make that certain things lie outside what the manifesto pledges were.
Whilst I don't expect the turkeys to vote for Christmas, I don't see any other option than a GE sorting this out. And that lies only in Truss' hands, short of a VonC and no other government being able to form.
It opens up another split on immigration policy with Suella Braverman:
No.
Although a general election with Liz selling her policies to the general public would be fun to watch as she loses the Tory party votes every time she appears on TV.
I don't think it would be unreasonable to make Deputy PM or Deputy Leader of the Party the de facto "if the PM is removed, this person takes the job". Again, I know our typical constitutional order isn't about voting for PM or leaders as such, but the reality is many people do vote that way and having our political system evolve to meet the political practicalities would be beneficial.
Truss can't even get tory MPs to agree on a press campaign.
I wonder if this is the solution to their problem.
Constitutionally, the PM is whoever can command a majority in the Commons. That doesn't mean it has to be a party leader. Caroline Lucas could be PM (in theory)
Truss doesn't command a majority
Rishi would.
He could be PM tomorrow
As one noisy 'influencer' said in 2014 'I doubt whether we will ever have been more popular, or in a better position to dictate terms, than if we vote to stay.'
✴️ Half of Scots critical of Scottish Government performance on the NHS
✴️ Nicola Sturgeon remains the most popular party leader
✴️ Woeful ratings for Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng (1/4) https://twitter.com/EmilyIpsosScot/status/1578288788593586178/photo/1
Heck a Welsh person has been Prime Minister of Australia more recently than we've had a Welsh UK Prime Minister, although if Mark Drakeford, the true Prince of Wales, might break that drought, if he became Labour leader.
For Germany it's a much bigger multiple of their non fossil fuel energy production because they're starting from much further back and gave higher energy use. It's legitimately hundreds of billions of Euros in renewables investment at a time when money is no longer cheap and readily available (as our government has discovered) and surging input prices.
Another key difference is that the UK seems resolved to build nuclear at scale, Germany doesn't seem ti be reconciled to new nuclear, they're still dithering over restarting the existing reactors. That will tell a decade from now, especially if RR aren't bullshitting us about the mini reactors and build time/cost per reactor.
Lab 48% (+1)
Con 26% (-1)
LibDem 10% (-1)
Green 6% (nc)
SNP 4% (nc)
1,636 questioned on 5-6 October. Changes with 28-29 September
Details & data at http://www.technetracker.co.uk https://twitter.com/techneUK/status/1578272661028757505/photo/1
Problem is she is the archetypal comedic effect Health Minister shown on a poor quality political comedy show.
Germany is in a very poor place and Merkel's legacy is turning out to be a disaster for Germany with her idiotic decisions on nuclear power and her closeness to Russia
In other news the one pleasing report this morning is that Truss and Macron got on very well with agreement to move forward together on energy security and the channel crossings and other related matters
It is also expected a deal between the UK and EU re Northern Ireland is near and that too would be welcome
I watched the program and can read the question. It was if a Scottish MP at Westminster could be PM. If it was about a dual MSP/MP the question would say MSP.
Now that Scotland has its own Parliament, dealing with internal Scottish affairs, in future do you think it is right or wrong that a Scottish MP can become Prime Minister of the whole UK?
The McKeirgasm was pretty short lived.
There have been more British PMs born in Canada than in Wales.
There have been more British PMs born in America than in Wales.
There have been more Australian than British PMs born in Wales.
And the Scots complain about a lack of influence?
Not to mention that there is very little evidence that Rishi would have the ability to get back the popularity Truss has lost - some of the damage has already been done regarding mortgages and pensions, and Rishi seems unlikely to do anything that could change that.
How it is done elsewhere:
https://easymilano.com/when-can-we-switch-on-the-heating-in-italy/
Given a sizeable number of people live in communal apartments, this is a pretty broad regulation defining the date central heating can be switched on, how many hours a day it can run and what it can be set to. It is split by zone, from a few Alpine locations where limitations are minimal, to the South where the heating is only allowed to come on 5 hours a day for a few weeks a year.
Also note the article is from 2020 - Italy's approach this year has been to reset the regulations as 1 degree less on the the thermostat, one hour less per day, one week less on the start and end dates (broadly, I liked the idea and it is how I've set up my heating for winter)
What about power back ups for PCs? Seems they don't last very long and guess home wifi wont work either so benefit would be safely closing down rather than keeping it online?
Anything I can do for fridge/freezer?
It's an expensive solution but it will keep your stuff running for quite a while.
Support Rishi or they are out of a job.
Grab them by the balls and their hearts and minds will follow...
First and last paragraph of Simon Jenkins in the Guardian ."Never underestimate the Tory party. It has confined Labour to just 13 of the past 43 years in office. It never gives in without a fight and is unafraid of ruthlessly toppling leaders. The latest, Liz Truss, has shown herself in just four weeks to have been a major mistake. The party has two years to correct that mistake before facing the electorate.............In reality, the task for a caretaker leader is not to win the next election, it is to persuade the Conservatives that electoral humiliation under Truss can be avoided. The party needs to rediscover itself, to put the turmoil of Brexit, lockdown and Truss behind it. Most of all, it needs to become a united and effective opposition to a forthcoming Starmer administration. Gove is the person to preside over that transition."
I was thinking more of the recent febrile excitement on here over a poll showing SKS being more poplular than Sturgeon.
As will every other bottle feeding parent without a gas hob.
It's implausible to leave Truss in place. Conservative ratings are far worse than they were in Thatcher's first term (the worst the averages got were about 10 points behind Labour at the start of 1981 and 10 points behind the Alliance at the start of 1982).
It's implausible to have Truss as a figurehead, kept in a high tower most of the time while a Gove-Sunak-Hunt-Patel (or similar) quad takes all the real decisions.
It's implausible for the Conservatives to choose a new leader.
It's implausible for enough Conservative MPs to press the nuclear button and VONC her in the Commons.
All these things are implausible because they will be costly for the government. Yet (unless I've missed something) something like one of them has to happen.
An heir apparent, as I'm suggesting it (and, OK, this is a bit of a kite fly), would be a permanent leader in waiting, against whom the wisdom of any plots against the current leader could be clearly viewed. Thus the need for regular re-election as stars rise and fall.
People will be taking action to save money this winter and this will help reduce consumption, all without the state having to do anything.
Rishi is also, of all the contenders, most market-friendly. That he publicly predicted what would happen in response to Kwasi's not-budget is the cherry on the cake.
But most significant will be the polls. Truss is toast because the polls show most Conservative MPs losing their seats. Her successor needs to change that.
In 1976 the government asked Delia Smith to front the "Save It" energy campaign to help reduce public consumption
Ministers claimed it saved the country £330m... https://twitter.com/labour_history/status/1578274998334410754/video/1
Torch for reading light.
Portable camping gas stove and a stove kettle - most regular gas cookers won’t run with no power, they have a safety cutout.
For a desktop PC, get a UPS.
You can get a device called an inverter, that will turn your car engine into a generator and give 240v. It’ll be enough to run the PC, wifi router, and chargers for phones, laptops, torches etc
https://www.amazon.co.uk/LVYUAN-Inverter-Converter-Cigarette-Lighter/dp/B08PS1LKCP/
Don’t run the inverter without the engine running (it will kill the battery in minutes!), make sure your car can’t be stolen if left with the engine running, and don’t run out of petrol!
Fridge/freezer not much, but a modern one will keep cold for a couple of days if you don’t open it. You could run it from the inverter for a bit, if nothing else is plugged in.
Get a generator if you really need power for more than just emergencies, it’s more efficient than using the car!
No, the only viable alternative to Truss before the next general election who could unify the party and be more electable is Ben Wallace. With Sunak maybe brought back as Chancellor to replace Kwarteng. A Wallace government could then ensure the Cabinet represents all wings of the party. Wallace would be Howard to Truss' IDS, unlikely to win but reunifies the party
There is a wonderful future of energy security and cheap power on offer once we have fully decarbonised our European energy mix, or at least to the extent of no longer relying on authoritarian states to supply us. We just need to get on with the transition as a matter of urgency.
Every time Putin tries geopolitical blackmail or the OPEC cartel make opportunistic decisions like this week, they put another nail in their coffin as petro-states and drive the rest of the world towards independence.