Does anyone know of a good English-language source (twitter or a blog or whatever) on Russian politics? I feel like when/how a country's regime is going to change isn't something you can deduce from first principles, you have to actually know about politics in that country. And obviously in situations like this people are prone to wish fulfillment.
There isn't one as far as I know. Many English language writers on Russian politics are in the pay of one side or another. Maybe Yevgenia Albats once but she's now clearly pushing a pro-Navalny line in an attempt to rehabilitate him in the west from Islamophobic hyper-nationalist to anti-corruption crusader. Everybody's second favourite geordie after Cummings, Fiona Hill, is very knowledgeable and realistic but doesn't write articles very frequently. Probably insufficiently hysterically Russophobe for most on here.
Even if they could be found I don't they would help more than marginally. Imagine how good your understanding of British politics would be if you only had Russian language sources
Does anyone know of a good English-language source (twitter or a blog or whatever) on Russian politics? I feel like when/how a country's regime is going to change isn't something you can deduce from first principles, you have to actually know about politics in that country. And obviously in situations like this people are prone to wish fulfillment.
There isn't one as far as I know. Many English language writers on Russian politics are in the pay of one side or another. Maybe Yevgenia Albats once but she's now clearly pushing a pro-Navalny line in an attempt to rehabilitate him in the west from Islamophobic hyper-nationalist to anti-corruption crusader. Everybody's second favourite geordie after Cummings, Fiona Hill, is very knowledgeable and realistic but doesn't write articles very frequently. Probably insufficiently hysterically Russophobe for most on here.
Even if they could be found I don't they would help more than marginally. Imagine how good your understanding of British politics would be if you only had Russian language sources
How do you see things playing out over the coming weeks Dura?
Fucked if I know. Probably disappointing to both sides in different ways.
E2A: among my Russian contacts on VK the SMO remains either irrelevant or popular but being incompetently executed. Russians sort of cynically expect a degree of dysfunction but have military prowess as a key thwart of their cultural identity. Very like the English.
Does anyone know of a good English-language source (twitter or a blog or whatever) on Russian politics? I feel like when/how a country's regime is going to change isn't something you can deduce from first principles, you have to actually know about politics in that country. And obviously in situations like this people are prone to wish fulfillment.
There isn't one as far as I know. Many English language writers on Russian politics are in the pay of one side or another. Maybe Yevgenia Albats once but she's now clearly pushing a pro-Navalny line in an attempt to rehabilitate him in the west from Islamophobic hyper-nationalist to anti-corruption crusader. Everybody's second favourite geordie after Cummings, Fiona Hill, is very knowledgeable and realistic but doesn't write articles very frequently. Probably insufficiently hysterically Russophobe for most on here.
Even if they could be found I don't they would help more than marginally. Imagine how good your understanding of British politics would be if you only had Russian language sources
I'd strongly recommend Fiona Hill's book 'operative in the Kremlin' if you want to understand how the current regime works. It was written in 2015 but is still relevant. Also, watch out for anything Fiona Hill does say (even though, perhaps wisely, she doesn't say much). She did a podcast with Andrew Sullivan back in April which is well worth a listen
This is an interesting article which details how Putin is no longer fully in charge of how events are perceived in Russia. That’s quite a dangerous development for him - and by extension potentially for us, too.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-2 … The Kremlin’s declaration of partial mobilization exposed the general Russian public to the consequences of the defeat around Kharkiv and then at Lyman, shattering the Kremlin’s efforts to portray the war as limited and generally successful. The Russian defeat around Lyman has generated even more confusion and negative reporting in the mainstream Russian information space than had the Russian withdrawals from Kyiv, Snake Island, or even Kharkiv. The impact of Lyman is likely greater because Russians now fear being mobilized to fix problems on the battlefield. An independent Russian polling organization, the Levada Center, found that more than half of respondents said that they were afraid that the war in Ukraine could lead to general mobilization, whereas the majority of respondents had not voiced such concerns in February 2022.[10] Russians also likely see that the Kremlin is executing the current partial mobilization – which was supposed to be a limited call-up of qualified reservists – in an illegal and deceptive manner, which places more men at the risk of being mobilized to reinforce collapsing frontlines.
Putin relies on controlling the information space in Russia to safeguard his regime much more than on the kind of massive oppression apparatus the Soviet Union used, making disorder in the information space potentially even more dangerous to Putin than it was to the Soviets. Putin has never rebuilt the internal repression apparatus the Soviets had in the KGB, Interior Ministry forces, and Red Army to the scale required to crush domestic opposition by force. Putin has not until recently even imposed the kinds of extreme censorship that characterized the Soviet state. Russians have long had nearly free access to the internet, social media, and virtual private networks (VPNs), and Putin has notably refrained from blocking Telegram even though the platform refused his demands to censor its content and even as he has disrupted his people’s access to other platforms. The Russian information space has instead relied on journalists and TV talk-show guests to enforce coerced self-censorship, especially after the Kremlin adopted a law that threatens Russians with up to 15 years in jail for “discrediting the army.”…
The Kremlin was trying to claim only 5k had died, but also that mobilization was necessary to defend and liberate mother Russia.
Whilst much propaganda messaging can be in conflict with each other, their current efforts seem too confused, halfway between 'its going great' and 'we are in an existential fight with the West'.
One of the many worries about this is that most Russians will believe that they are already at war with NATO because they are being repeatedly told that NATO troops are leading the charge against them.
Normally a PM and Chancellor steady the ship after the error-strewn media performances of colleagues. But Truss and Kwarteng's own accident-prone appearances are part of the problem, MPs say.
Ahead of the PM's big speech, the latest #WaughOnPolitics:
Does anyone know of a good English-language source (twitter or a blog or whatever) on Russian politics? I feel like when/how a country's regime is going to change isn't something you can deduce from first principles, you have to actually know about politics in that country. And obviously in situations like this people are prone to wish fulfillment.
There isn't one as far as I know. Many English language writers on Russian politics are in the pay of one side or another. Maybe Yevgenia Albats once but she's now clearly pushing a pro-Navalny line in an attempt to rehabilitate him in the west from Islamophobic hyper-nationalist to anti-corruption crusader. Everybody's second favourite geordie after Cummings, Fiona Hill, is very knowledgeable and realistic but doesn't write articles very frequently. Probably insufficiently hysterically Russophobe for most on here.
Even if they could be found I don't they would help more than marginally. Imagine how good your understanding of British politics would be if you only had Russian language sources
How do you see things playing out over the coming weeks Dura?
Fucked if I know. Probably disappointing to both sides in different ways.
E2A: among my Russian contacts on VK the SMO remains either irrelevant or popular but being incompetently executed. Russians sort of cynically expect a degree of dysfunction but have military prowess as a key thwart of their cultural identity. Very like the English.
You're gonna have to unpick those abbreviations for me to make sense of that. Soz
New: ministers expected to raise state pension age to 68 for millions... 2035 being openly speculated by ministers... announcment expected before Christmas in bid to shore up markets and long term bonds further
Does anyone know of a good English-language source (twitter or a blog or whatever) on Russian politics? I feel like when/how a country's regime is going to change isn't something you can deduce from first principles, you have to actually know about politics in that country. And obviously in situations like this people are prone to wish fulfillment.
There isn't one as far as I know. Many English language writers on Russian politics are in the pay of one side or another. Maybe Yevgenia Albats once but she's now clearly pushing a pro-Navalny line in an attempt to rehabilitate him in the west from Islamophobic hyper-nationalist to anti-corruption crusader. Everybody's second favourite geordie after Cummings, Fiona Hill, is very knowledgeable and realistic but doesn't write articles very frequently. Probably insufficiently hysterically Russophobe for most on here.
Even if they could be found I don't they would help more than marginally. Imagine how good your understanding of British politics would be if you only had Russian language sources
Understanding of politics all over is pretty bad even when knowing the native language source (or as we've seen here, from the political actors themselves, even the ones in office) so not much hope.
Very interesting @DavidDavisMP to Nick R that the PM models herself on Thatcher, she should actually look at what Thatcher did who was “strategically terribly bold and tactically incredibly careful” and would “never have tried” real cuts in benefits at a time like this https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1577564839693746176
New: ministers expected to raise state pension age to 68 for millions... 2035 being openly speculated by ministers... announcment expected before Christmas in bid to shore up markets and long term bonds further
Moon Rabbit insists they are anti Tory but seems to spend their whole time telling us how great the Tories are. It’s only themself they’re kidding
Anyone can post a view of what the Truss government argument is for their policy thinking, to kick that around a to see if we all agree not with it, but that it is at least that all right, without being Team Truss or voting for the Two Nation nonsense of it. I don’t want to be cheeky, but it’s a step up than merely throwing “40% poll lead” spaghetti at the wall over and over again.
It may be escaping you horse, but this isn’t just the last alliance of elves and men against the evil of Sauron going on here - Kwarteng and Truss are criticising decades of what they call the policies of declineism - the podium at this conference is rich with challenge to orthodox thinking. We are on the same page in hating the resulting Two Nation policies, but only one of us is engaging with the philosophy and motivation of the opponent.
It is a 3 stage problem.
I think the first stage is that they are bright enough to have identified a real problem - and one that many on all sides of the debate have identified for many years so I don't give them too much credit for it. We are in decline and we are all part of a very long term but undeniable ponzi scheme. We cannot simply carry on as we are because you cannot tax your way of an ever increasing public spending and demographic crisis
They also have a solution. Stage 2. This solution, which is not the only possible one but is valid none the less - cutting the size of the state and making people more responsible for their own well being - could work if it is done carefully and thoughtfully and by taking the public along with you through education and open debate of the issues and the possible solutions. That relies on politicians being honest and also ensuring that the basic principles of fairness and a proper safety net are retained. It also relies on picking the right moment to start it.
But the last stage - now this is where they show their true colours and simply go mad. They are so inept and so drunk with their own power that they have managed to do just about every single thing wrong. Wrong timing, wrong policies, wrong winners and certainly wrong losers. No preparation, no explanation and no remorse when it all goes wrong. They are just, basically, fecking useless.
It doesn't change the fact that the analysis and the possible solution (amongst others) were all sound. But they are so totally incompetent and arrogant that that all counts for nothing.
The trouble is that when they are long gone the problems will still remain and I don't really see any other UK politicians facing up to that fact in the next decade and making any meaningful attempts to deal with it. I would like to think I am wrong on this and that Starmer or Gove or Badenock or some other politician yet to emerge will grasp the issues and make a meaningful attempt to solve them. But I am not holding my breath.
you are saying this moment is in fact 1975, not 1995 - an orthodoxy, a consensus, is rightly being challenged here, if/when managed well it actually represents the future, and shapes the future?
Indeed. But I also don't think the solutions that were developed from 1979 onwards are necessarily going to be the ones that work this time.
To a large extent Thatcher had it easy. So much of the UK economy was nationalised that privatising it was, for a significant majority of the public, fairly uncontroversial. That easy solution no longer exists.
The past decade and a half had been mostly Labour years and so it was also relatively easy to place the blame elsewhere. The Tories cannot do that now. Only Labour can and I am not sure they are in the right place ideologically to challenge the orthodoxy.
And, of course, there was a ready source of income in the form of North Sea Oil to help pay for the transition. Again, that large reserve does not exist today.
Everything fell right for a paradigm shift in the late 70s. I am not sure anything is right for a similar shift today. Nor, if I am honest, do I know what that shift should necessarily be. All I know is that something has to give and either we control it or it will happen anyway in a form we might not like at all.
The biggest single issue facing governments of all shades and hues is the issue of an ageing population, because that puts pressure on government spending (pensions and health care), diverting workers into looking after the elderly, while at the same time meaning a smaller proportion of people are of working age.
The first step to solving this is to make sure that *everyone* is saving for their own retirement all the time - which probably means a system like the Australian compulsory saving scheme.
The issue is that - while this is absolutely the right thing in the long-term - it means one generation of workers will simultaneously be paying for yesterday's unfunded promises, and saving for their own retirement. And that is a very hard sell.
To what extent will ageing population - a demographic time bomb to pay for - build in permanent high inflation making under 2% target laughable?
Does anyone know of a good English-language source (twitter or a blog or whatever) on Russian politics? I feel like when/how a country's regime is going to change isn't something you can deduce from first principles, you have to actually know about politics in that country. And obviously in situations like this people are prone to wish fulfillment.
There isn't one as far as I know. Many English language writers on Russian politics are in the pay of one side or another. Maybe Yevgenia Albats once but she's now clearly pushing a pro-Navalny line in an attempt to rehabilitate him in the west from Islamophobic hyper-nationalist to anti-corruption crusader. Everybody's second favourite geordie after Cummings, Fiona Hill, is very knowledgeable and realistic but doesn't write articles very frequently. Probably insufficiently hysterically Russophobe for most on here.
Even if they could be found I don't they would help more than marginally. Imagine how good your understanding of British politics would be if you only had Russian language sources
How do you see things playing out over the coming weeks Dura?
Fucked if I know. Probably disappointing to both sides in different ways.
E2A: among my Russian contacts on VK the SMO remains either irrelevant or popular but being incompetently executed. Russians sort of cynically expect a degree of dysfunction but have military prowess as a key thwart of their cultural identity. Very like the English.
You're gonna have to unpick those abbreviations for me to make sense of that. Soz
Edit SMO Special Military Operation. VK = ?
V Kontakte lit. "In Contact". The Russian language Facebook.
Does anyone know of a good English-language source (twitter or a blog or whatever) on Russian politics? I feel like when/how a country's regime is going to change isn't something you can deduce from first principles, you have to actually know about politics in that country. And obviously in situations like this people are prone to wish fulfillment.
There isn't one as far as I know. Many English language writers on Russian politics are in the pay of one side or another. Maybe Yevgenia Albats once but she's now clearly pushing a pro-Navalny line in an attempt to rehabilitate him in the west from Islamophobic hyper-nationalist to anti-corruption crusader. Everybody's second favourite geordie after Cummings, Fiona Hill, is very knowledgeable and realistic but doesn't write articles very frequently. Probably insufficiently hysterically Russophobe for most on here.
Even if they could be found I don't they would help more than marginally. Imagine how good your understanding of British politics would be if you only had Russian language sources
How do you see things playing out over the coming weeks Dura?
Fucked if I know. Probably disappointing to both sides in different ways.
E2A: among my Russian contacts on VK the SMO remains either irrelevant or popular but being incompetently executed. Russians sort of cynically expect a degree of dysfunction but have military prowess as a key thwart of their cultural identity. Very like the English.
You're gonna have to unpick those abbreviations for me to make sense of that. Soz
Edit SMO Special Military Operation. VK = ?
V Kontakte lit. "In Contact". The Russian language Facebook.
Does anyone know of a good English-language source (twitter or a blog or whatever) on Russian politics? I feel like when/how a country's regime is going to change isn't something you can deduce from first principles, you have to actually know about politics in that country. And obviously in situations like this people are prone to wish fulfillment.
There isn't one as far as I know. Many English language writers on Russian politics are in the pay of one side or another. Maybe Yevgenia Albats once but she's now clearly pushing a pro-Navalny line in an attempt to rehabilitate him in the west from Islamophobic hyper-nationalist to anti-corruption crusader. Everybody's second favourite geordie after Cummings, Fiona Hill, is very knowledgeable and realistic but doesn't write articles very frequently. Probably insufficiently hysterically Russophobe for most on here.
Even if they could be found I don't they would help more than marginally. Imagine how good your understanding of British politics would be if you only had Russian language sources
How do you see things playing out over the coming weeks Dura?
Fucked if I know. Probably disappointing to both sides in different ways.
E2A: among my Russian contacts on VK the SMO remains either irrelevant or popular but being incompetently executed. Russians sort of cynically expect a degree of dysfunction but have military prowess as a key thwart of their cultural identity. Very like the English.
…and the Scots, and the French, and don’t get me started on the Americans. Used to be the central part of the German (nee Prussian) identity until…stuff happened…
@Leon tried to tell us how fantastic Liz Truss was going to be. I assume he has now recanted.
Has there ever, in British history, been a more inept person as Prime Minister? She is absolutely dire. The most godawful, out of depth, useless, zombified, disaster zone in political history:
How the hell did the Conservative membership do this to themselves and us?
"But I was right about the necklace..."
Yes, I was right about the necklace. Best call ever made on PB, in terms of insight into a politician’s character from day 1
IMHO…
And I NEVER said “Liz Truss is going to be fantastic” - or if I did it was clearly a joke, as in “Britain should invade France”. I make jokes
I wanted Mordaunt to win til she emerged as Woke. After that I rather despaired of the choice. IIRC the most positive thing I said about Truss was “she’s brave”, “she might surprise on the upside”, “let’s give her a chance”
She’s had her chance, she hasn’t surprised on the upside, she is brave - but it topples into recklessness
Liz Truss makes her keynote conference speech around 11am this morning. Rumours are her entrance music will be “Moving on up” by M People. This song opens ..:
Moon Rabbit insists they are anti Tory but seems to spend their whole time telling us how great the Tories are. It’s only themself they’re kidding
Anyone can post a view of what the Truss government argument is for their policy thinking, to kick that around a to see if we all agree not with it, but that it is at least that all right, without being Team Truss or voting for the Two Nation nonsense of it. I don’t want to be cheeky, but it’s a step up than merely throwing “40% poll lead” spaghetti at the wall over and over again.
It may be escaping you horse, but this isn’t just the last alliance of elves and men against the evil of Sauron going on here - Kwarteng and Truss are criticising decades of what they call the policies of declineism - the podium at this conference is rich with challenge to orthodox thinking. We are on the same page in hating the resulting Two Nation policies, but only one of us is engaging with the philosophy and motivation of the opponent.
It is a 3 stage problem.
I think the first stage is that they are bright enough to have identified a real problem - and one that many on all sides of the debate have identified for many years so I don't give them too much credit for it. We are in decline and we are all part of a very long term but undeniable ponzi scheme. We cannot simply carry on as we are because you cannot tax your way of an ever increasing public spending and demographic crisis
They also have a solution. Stage 2. This solution, which is not the only possible one but is valid none the less - cutting the size of the state and making people more responsible for their own well being - could work if it is done carefully and thoughtfully and by taking the public along with you through education and open debate of the issues and the possible solutions. That relies on politicians being honest and also ensuring that the basic principles of fairness and a proper safety net are retained. It also relies on picking the right moment to start it.
But the last stage - now this is where they show their true colours and simply go mad. They are so inept and so drunk with their own power that they have managed to do just about every single thing wrong. Wrong timing, wrong policies, wrong winners and certainly wrong losers. No preparation, no explanation and no remorse when it all goes wrong. They are just, basically, fecking useless.
It doesn't change the fact that the analysis and the possible solution (amongst others) were all sound. But they are so totally incompetent and arrogant that that all counts for nothing.
The trouble is that when they are long gone the problems will still remain and I don't really see any other UK politicians facing up to that fact in the next decade and making any meaningful attempts to deal with it. I would like to think I am wrong on this and that Starmer or Gove or Badenock or some other politician yet to emerge will grasp the issues and make a meaningful attempt to solve them. But I am not holding my breath.
you are saying this moment is in fact 1975, not 1995 - an orthodoxy, a consensus, is rightly being challenged here, if/when managed well it actually represents the future, and shapes the future?
Indeed. But I also don't think the solutions that were developed from 1979 onwards are necessarily going to be the ones that work this time.
To a large extent Thatcher had it easy. So much of the UK economy was nationalised that privatising it was, for a significant majority of the public, fairly uncontroversial. That easy solution no longer exists.
The past decade and a half had been mostly Labour years and so it was also relatively easy to place the blame elsewhere. The Tories cannot do that now. Only Labour can and I am not sure they are in the right place ideologically to challenge the orthodoxy.
And, of course, there was a ready source of income in the form of North Sea Oil to help pay for the transition. Again, that large reserve does not exist today.
Everything fell right for a paradigm shift in the late 70s. I am not sure anything is right for a similar shift today. Nor, if I am honest, do I know what that shift should necessarily be. All I know is that something has to give and either we control it or it will happen anyway in a form we might not like at all.
The biggest single issue facing governments of all shades and hues is the issue of an ageing population, because that puts pressure on government spending (pensions and health care), diverting workers into looking after the elderly, while at the same time meaning a smaller proportion of people are of working age.
The first step to solving this is to make sure that *everyone* is saving for their own retirement all the time - which probably means a system like the Australian compulsory saving scheme.
The issue is that - while this is absolutely the right thing in the long-term - it means one generation of workers will simultaneously be paying for yesterday's unfunded promises, and saving for their own retirement. And that is a very hard sell.
To what extent will ageing population - a demographic time bomb to pay for - build in permanent high inflation making under 2% target laughable?
potentially zero - just look at Japan...
What it builds in is a lack of growth opportunities because the workforce is slowing down / retiring...
Meanwhile material change in long term bond markets - 30 year bond yield is up 30 basis points to well over 4% in past 24 hours, 4.15% a few moments ago. this is despite fact the Bank of England has offered to buy up these bonds…. That intervention took it down from 5% to 3.6% https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1577567969651073024/photo/1
New: ministers expected to raise state pension age to 68 for millions... 2035 being openly speculated by ministers... announcment expected before Christmas in bid to shore up markets and long term bonds further
@Leon tried to tell us how fantastic Liz Truss was going to be. I assume he has now recanted.
Has there ever, in British history, been a more inept person as Prime Minister? She is absolutely dire. The most godawful, out of depth, useless, zombified, disaster zone in political history:
@Leon tried to tell us how fantastic Liz Truss was going to be. I assume he has now recanted.
Has there ever, in British history, been a more inept person as Prime Minister? She is absolutely dire. The most godawful, out of depth, useless, zombified, disaster zone in political history:
How the hell did the Conservative membership do this to themselves and us?
"But I was right about the necklace..."
Yes, I was right about the necklace. Best call ever made on PB, in terms of insight into a politician’s character from day 1
And I NEVER said “Liz Truss is going to be fantastic” - or if I did it was clearly a joke, as in “Britain should invade France”. I make jokes
I wanted Mordaunt to win til she emerged as Woke. After that I rather despaired of the choice. IIRC the most positive thing I said about Truss was “she’s brave”, “she might surprise on the upside”, “let’s give her a chance”
She’s had her chance, she hasn’t surprised on the upside, she is brave - but it topples into recklessness
“If I did it was clearly a joke” - a fitting summary of your PB career and likely the epitaph eventually engraved onto your flint gravestone.
Liz Truss makes her keynote conference speech around 11am this morning. Rumours are her entrance music will be “Moving on up” by M People. This song opens ..:
@Leon tried to tell us how fantastic Liz Truss was going to be. I assume he has now recanted.
Has there ever, in British history, been a more inept person as Prime Minister? She is absolutely dire. The most godawful, out of depth, useless, zombified, disaster zone in political history:
Liz Truss makes her keynote conference speech around 11am this morning. Rumours are her entrance music will be “Moving on up” by M People. This song opens ..:
To paraphrase from Tangled: Hook Hand Thug: Go, live your dream. Flynn Rider Suella: I will. Hook Hand Thug: Your dream stinks. I was talking to her Sir Keir.
@Leon tried to tell us how fantastic Liz Truss was going to be. I assume he has now recanted.
Has there ever, in British history, been a more inept person as Prime Minister? She is absolutely dire. The most godawful, out of depth, useless, zombified, disaster zone in political history:
How the hell did the Conservative membership do this to themselves and us?
"But I was right about the necklace..."
Yes, I was right about the necklace. Best call ever made on PB, in terms of insight into a politician’s character from day 1
And I NEVER said “Liz Truss is going to be fantastic” - or if I did it was clearly a joke, as in “Britain should invade France”. I make jokes
I wanted Mordaunt to win til she emerged as Woke. After that I rather despaired of the choice. IIRC the most positive thing I said about Truss was “she’s brave”, “she might surprise on the upside”, “let’s give her a chance”
She’s had her chance, she hasn’t surprised on the upside, she is brave - but it topples into recklessness
“If I did it was clearly a joke” - a fitting summary of your PB career and likely the epitaph eventually engraved onto your flint gravestone.
A better epitaph than yours, which is “er, who the fuck was @dougseal?”
Liz Truss makes her keynote conference speech around 11am this morning. Rumours are her entrance music will be “Moving on up” by M People. This song opens ..:
@Leon tried to tell us how fantastic Liz Truss was going to be. I assume he has now recanted.
Has there ever, in British history, been a more inept person as Prime Minister? She is absolutely dire. The most godawful, out of depth, useless, zombified, disaster zone in political history:
How the hell did the Conservative membership do this to themselves and us?
"But I was right about the necklace..."
Yes, I was right about the necklace. Best call ever made on PB, in terms of insight into a politician’s character from day 1
And I NEVER said “Liz Truss is going to be fantastic” - or if I did it was clearly a joke, as in “Britain should invade France”. I make jokes
I wanted Mordaunt to win til she emerged as Woke. After that I rather despaired of the choice. IIRC the most positive thing I said about Truss was “she’s brave”, “she might surprise on the upside”, “let’s give her a chance”
She’s had her chance, she hasn’t surprised on the upside, she is brave - but it topples into recklessness
“If I did it was clearly a joke” - a fitting summary of your PB career and likely the epitaph eventually engraved onto your flint gravestone.
A better epitaph than yours, which is “er, who the fuck was @dougseal?”
It looks now like Russia is losing the entire Ukrainian war
As @DavidL says, this makes the next few week the moment of maximum peril. With every day that passes, without Putin doing something insane, we can breathe easier
A long time to go yet, however. Or: it will feel long
@Leon tried to tell us how fantastic Liz Truss was going to be. I assume he has now recanted.
Has there ever, in British history, been a more inept person as Prime Minister? She is absolutely dire. The most godawful, out of depth, useless, zombified, disaster zone in political history:
How the hell did the Conservative membership do this to themselves and us?
"But I was right about the necklace..."
Yes, I was right about the necklace. Best call ever made on PB, in terms of insight into a politician’s character from day 1
IMHO…
And I NEVER said “Liz Truss is going to be fantastic” - or if I did it was clearly a joke, as in “Britain should invade France”. I make jokes
I wanted Mordaunt to win til she emerged as Woke. After that I rather despaired of the choice. IIRC the most positive thing I said about Truss was “she’s brave”, “she might surprise on the upside”, “let’s give her a chance”
She’s had her chance, she hasn’t surprised on the upside, she is brave - but it topples into recklessness
@Leon tried to tell us how fantastic Liz Truss was going to be. I assume he has now recanted.
Has there ever, in British history, been a more inept person as Prime Minister? She is absolutely dire. The most godawful, out of depth, useless, zombified, disaster zone in political history:
How the hell did the Conservative membership do this to themselves and us?
"But I was right about the necklace..."
Yes, I was right about the necklace. Best call ever made on PB, in terms of insight into a politician’s character from day 1
And I NEVER said “Liz Truss is going to be fantastic” - or if I did it was clearly a joke, as in “Britain should invade France”. I make jokes
I wanted Mordaunt to win til she emerged as Woke. After that I rather despaired of the choice. IIRC the most positive thing I said about Truss was “she’s brave”, “she might surprise on the upside”, “let’s give her a chance”
She’s had her chance, she hasn’t surprised on the upside, she is brave - but it topples into recklessness
“If I did it was clearly a joke” - a fitting summary of your PB career and likely the epitaph eventually engraved onto your flint gravestone.
A better epitaph than yours, which is “er, who the fuck was @dougseal?”
I quite like that. Might stipulate it in my will... Possibly with a change to make it my name, but then maybe not - leave it all the more mysterious
@Leon tried to tell us how fantastic Liz Truss was going to be. I assume he has now recanted.
Has there ever, in British history, been a more inept person as Prime Minister? She is absolutely dire. The most godawful, out of depth, useless, zombified, disaster zone in political history:
How the hell did the Conservative membership do this to themselves and us?
"But I was right about the necklace..."
Yes, I was right about the necklace. Best call ever made on PB, in terms of insight into a politician’s character from day 1
And I NEVER said “Liz Truss is going to be fantastic” - or if I did it was clearly a joke, as in “Britain should invade France”. I make jokes
I wanted Mordaunt to win til she emerged as Woke. After that I rather despaired of the choice. IIRC the most positive thing I said about Truss was “she’s brave”, “she might surprise on the upside”, “let’s give her a chance”
She’s had her chance, she hasn’t surprised on the upside, she is brave - but it topples into recklessness
“If I did it was clearly a joke” - a fitting summary of your PB career and likely the epitaph eventually engraved onto your flint gravestone.
A better epitaph than yours, which is “er, who the fuck was @dougseal?”
Rubbish. I’m the leading political commentator and tipster on my entire icecap of roughly 30,000 seals. You’re not even the most famous person in your family.
On a side note, expect the pensions industry fiasco to start hitting headlines again in the next couple of weeks.
Fund managers across the industry continue to be forced to sell assets as quickly as they can to improve pension scheme liquidity. But will it be enough to stop another run on the gilt market later in the month? We'll see.
I am surprised at the pension liquidity problem. Since auto enrolment 80% of UK workers are saving 8% of their income (3% from their employer, 4% from employees and 1% tax relief). NEST the government supported default fund (I am on one of their panels) is getting over £400m a month in net receipts and presumably others are similarly cash rich.
@Leon tried to tell us how fantastic Liz Truss was going to be. I assume he has now recanted.
Has there ever, in British history, been a more inept person as Prime Minister? She is absolutely dire. The most godawful, out of depth, useless, zombified, disaster zone in political history:
How the hell did the Conservative membership do this to themselves and us?
"But I was right about the necklace..."
Yes, I was right about the necklace. Best call ever made on PB, in terms of insight into a politician’s character from day 1
IMHO…
And I NEVER said “Liz Truss is going to be fantastic” - or if I did it was clearly a joke, as in “Britain should invade France”. I make jokes
I wanted Mordaunt to win til she emerged as Woke. After that I rather despaired of the choice. IIRC the most positive thing I said about Truss was “she’s brave”, “she might surprise on the upside”, “let’s give her a chance”
She’s had her chance, she hasn’t surprised on the upside, she is brave - but it topples into recklessness
You'll always have the necklace.
I will
It is the political psychoanalysis equivalent of Mike Smithson‘s 50/1 on the obscure Obama as POTUS
Probably my proudest moment on the site in terms of particular insight. So maybe @dougseal is right. That’s my PB epitaph. Lol
Also, Covid, Lab Leak, AI, What3Words, AND THE ALIENS, but I’ll ignore those for now
Why should state pensions and benefits go up by inflation or more when neither private nor public sector wages are? It just increases the tax burden on those of us still working.
Liz Truss makes her keynote conference speech around 11am this morning. Rumours are her entrance music will be “Moving on up” by M People. This song opens ..:
Why should state pensions and benefits go up by inflation or more when neither private nor public sector wages are? It just increases the tax burden on those of is still working.
Destroying the Pound, destroying education, letting the rich off and a giant fuck you to people that work by keeping the triple lock and putting my pension age up.
"More than 330,000 excess deaths in Great Britain in recent years can be attributed to spending cuts to public services and benefits introduced by a UK government pursuing austerity policies, according to an academic study.
The authors of the study suggest additional deaths between 2012 and 2019 – prior to the Covid pandemic – reflect an increase in people dying prematurely after experiencing reduced income, ill-health, poor nutrition and housing, and social isolation.
Previously improving mortality trends started to change for the worse after austerity policies introduced in 2010 when tens of billions of pounds began to be cut from public spending by the Tory-led coalition government, the study said."
Why should state pensions and benefits go up by inflation or more when neither private nor public sector wages are? It just increases the tax burden on those of is still working.
Indeed.
Tbh uprating benefits with prices instead of wages seems a weird fight for Conservative backbenchers. I mean they realised they joined the Conservative party right ?
Why should state pensions and benefits go up by inflation or more when neither private nor public sector wages are? It just increases the tax burden on those of us still working.
Because the bottom 10% on benefits have a really shit life with damn few pleasures in it and those who have a much better one should bear the strain. But you knew that.
The problem is this combination of those on benefits and pensioners, many of whom are very much in the latter category.
It looks now like Russia is losing the entire Ukrainian war
As @DavidL says, this makes the next few week the moment of maximum peril. With every day that passes, without Putin doing something insane, we can breathe easier
A long time to go yet, however. Or: it will feel long
Truss must be praying for VVP to go nuclear. That would clearly move the story on.
@Leon tried to tell us how fantastic Liz Truss was going to be. I assume he has now recanted.
Has there ever, in British history, been a more inept person as Prime Minister? She is absolutely dire. The most godawful, out of depth, useless, zombified, disaster zone in political history:
How the hell did the Conservative membership do this to themselves and us?
"But I was right about the necklace..."
Yes, I was right about the necklace. Best call ever made on PB, in terms of insight into a politician’s character from day 1
IMHO…
And I NEVER said “Liz Truss is going to be fantastic” - or if I did it was clearly a joke, as in “Britain should invade France”. I make jokes
I wanted Mordaunt to win til she emerged as Woke. After that I rather despaired of the choice. IIRC the most positive thing I said about Truss was “she’s brave”, “she might surprise on the upside”, “let’s give her a chance”
She’s had her chance, she hasn’t surprised on the upside, she is brave - but it topples into recklessness
You'll always have the necklace.
I will
It is the political psychoanalysis equivalent of Mike Smithson‘s 50/1 on the obscure Obama as POTUS
Probably my proudest moment on the site in terms of particular insight. So maybe @dougseal is right. That’s my PB epitaph. Lol
Also, Covid, Lab Leak, AI, What3Words, AND THE ALIENS, but I’ll ignore those for now
You're forgetting your best: Vadasz Garlic & Dill Pickles
Why should state pensions and benefits go up by inflation or more when neither private nor public sector wages are? It just increases the tax burden on those of us still working.
Because the bottom 10% on benefits have a really shit life with damn few pleasures in it and those who have a much better one should bear the strain. But you knew that.
The problem is this combination of those on benefits and pensioners, many of whom are very much in the latter category.
It looks now like Russia is losing the entire Ukrainian war
As @DavidL says, this makes the next few week the moment of maximum peril. With every day that passes, without Putin doing something insane, we can breathe easier
A long time to go yet, however. Or: it will feel long
Truss must be praying for VVP to go nuclear. That would clearly move the story on.
Might move her on swiftly too.
Ben Wallace coronation rather than Truss' finger on the nuclear button
On a side note, expect the pensions industry fiasco to start hitting headlines again in the next couple of weeks.
Fund managers across the industry continue to be forced to sell assets as quickly as they can to improve pension scheme liquidity. But will it be enough to stop another run on the gilt market later in the month? We'll see.
I am surprised at the pension liquidity problem. Since auto enrolment 80% of UK workers are saving 8% of their income (3% from their employer, 4% from employees and 1% tax relief). NEST the government supported default fund (I am on one of their panels) is getting over £400m a month in net receipts and presumably others are similarly cash rich.
iirc the ones in real trouble are closed to new members. They don't have a steady income stream.
@Leon tried to tell us how fantastic Liz Truss was going to be. I assume he has now recanted.
Has there ever, in British history, been a more inept person as Prime Minister? She is absolutely dire. The most godawful, out of depth, useless, zombified, disaster zone in political history:
How the hell did the Conservative membership do this to themselves and us?
"But I was right about the necklace..."
Yes, I was right about the necklace. Best call ever made on PB, in terms of insight into a politician’s character from day 1
IMHO…
And I NEVER said “Liz Truss is going to be fantastic” - or if I did it was clearly a joke, as in “Britain should invade France”. I make jokes
I wanted Mordaunt to win til she emerged as Woke. After that I rather despaired of the choice. IIRC the most positive thing I said about Truss was “she’s brave”, “she might surprise on the upside”, “let’s give her a chance”
She’s had her chance, she hasn’t surprised on the upside, she is brave - but it topples into recklessness
You'll always have the necklace.
I will
It is the political psychoanalysis equivalent of Mike Smithson‘s 50/1 on the obscure Obama as POTUS
Probably my proudest moment on the site in terms of particular insight. So maybe @dougseal is right. That’s my PB epitaph. Lol
Also, Covid, Lab Leak, AI, What3Words, AND THE ALIENS, but I’ll ignore those for now
You're forgetting your best: Vadasz Garlic & Dill Pickles
I had some last night! OMG they remain amazing
Sadly their sauerkraut is nothing special. So maybe they are the Stone Roses of German-Jewish condiments. One great album, then dreck
@Leon tried to tell us how fantastic Liz Truss was going to be. I assume he has now recanted.
Has there ever, in British history, been a more inept person as Prime Minister? She is absolutely dire. The most godawful, out of depth, useless, zombified, disaster zone in political history:
How the hell did the Conservative membership do this to themselves and us?
"But I was right about the necklace..."
Yes, I was right about the necklace. Best call ever made on PB, in terms of insight into a politician’s character from day 1
IMHO…
And I NEVER said “Liz Truss is going to be fantastic” - or if I did it was clearly a joke, as in “Britain should invade France”. I make jokes
I wanted Mordaunt to win til she emerged as Woke. After that I rather despaired of the choice. IIRC the most positive thing I said about Truss was “she’s brave”, “she might surprise on the upside”, “let’s give her a chance”
She’s had her chance, she hasn’t surprised on the upside, she is brave - but it topples into recklessness
You told me repeatedly told me Truss would surprise me on the upside.
I did some like research on his account and others like him (i.e. the "Everything is going to plan" gang) and his account only took off in July, prior to then he was posting the exact same stuff and get basically zero likes and retweets but in July it exploded. I presume this syncs up with when the Russian advance in the East stalled out. Over the course of the invasion the Pro-Russian Everything is Going Great accounts have gradually shut up shop as the person running the account realises Russia is not doing well. Yet there is an audience for the content so people cast around to find someone still espousing Russis-Winning-Here. It's the same for Big Serge and others, they were absolutely nothing accounts until July and then suddenly they became big.
Destroying the Pound, destroying education, letting the rich off and a giant fuck you to people that work by keeping the triple lock and putting my pension age up.
We won’t forget this.
Yeh, but all that matters is she has "a Plan" and as she says repeatedly in every interview "the important thing is that we stick to the Plan".
@Leon tried to tell us how fantastic Liz Truss was going to be. I assume he has now recanted.
Has there ever, in British history, been a more inept person as Prime Minister? She is absolutely dire. The most godawful, out of depth, useless, zombified, disaster zone in political history:
How the hell did the Conservative membership do this to themselves and us?
"But I was right about the necklace..."
Yes, I was right about the necklace. Best call ever made on PB, in terms of insight into a politician’s character from day 1
IMHO…
And I NEVER said “Liz Truss is going to be fantastic” - or if I did it was clearly a joke, as in “Britain should invade France”. I make jokes
I wanted Mordaunt to win til she emerged as Woke. After that I rather despaired of the choice. IIRC the most positive thing I said about Truss was “she’s brave”, “she might surprise on the upside”, “let’s give her a chance”
She’s had her chance, she hasn’t surprised on the upside, she is brave - but it topples into recklessness
You'll always have the necklace.
I will
It is the political psychoanalysis equivalent of Mike Smithson‘s 50/1 on the obscure Obama as POTUS
Probably my proudest moment on the site in terms of particular insight. So maybe @dougseal is right. That’s my PB epitaph. Lol
Also, Covid, Lab Leak, AI, What3Words, AND THE ALIENS, but I’ll ignore those for now
Do we know for sure the necklace thing is definitely real rather than a product of journalistic 2+2=5?
@Leon tried to tell us how fantastic Liz Truss was going to be. I assume he has now recanted.
Has there ever, in British history, been a more inept person as Prime Minister? She is absolutely dire. The most godawful, out of depth, useless, zombified, disaster zone in political history:
Intelligent people also disagree, or that she should have properly planned and prepared for it then.
Well no. No one intelligent is disagreeing what the problems are that Truss is trying to address - the stark contrast between last week at Labour conference and this week from Truss podium all week - nobody at Labour conference, least of all Starmer - sought to challenge the current consensus and orthodoxy, in comparison with Truss, did Labour actually attempt courageous disruptive answers to the problems we face as a nation, and a world economy? Did Labour do anything at all to challenge and upset voters, as our politicians definitely need to be doing at this time?
Instead of Thatcher, think of Truss as Keith Joseph, and ask the question what is the point of Starmer doing a 74-79 and then allowing the Tories to shape the inevitable change that is needed and coming? 😦
It looks now like Russia is losing the entire Ukrainian war
As @DavidL says, this makes the next few week the moment of maximum peril. With every day that passes, without Putin doing something insane, we can breathe easier
A long time to go yet, however. Or: it will feel long
Ru has been losing spectacularly and publically since at least August.
It is one long series of military disasters that will keep the military strategy textbook writers busy for years.
Moon Rabbit insists they are anti Tory but seems to spend their whole time telling us how great the Tories are. It’s only themself they’re kidding
Anyone can post a view of what the Truss government argument is for their policy thinking, to kick that around a to see if we all agree not with it, but that it is at least that all right, without being Team Truss or voting for the Two Nation nonsense of it. I don’t want to be cheeky, but it’s a step up than merely throwing “40% poll lead” spaghetti at the wall over and over again.
It may be escaping you horse, but this isn’t just the last alliance of elves and men against the evil of Sauron going on here - Kwarteng and Truss are criticising decades of what they call the policies of declineism - the podium at this conference is rich with challenge to orthodox thinking. We are on the same page in hating the resulting Two Nation policies, but only one of us is engaging with the philosophy and motivation of the opponent.
It is a 3 stage problem.
I think the first stage is that they are bright enough to have identified a real problem - and one that many on all sides of the debate have identified for many years so I don't give them too much credit for it. We are in decline and we are all part of a very long term but undeniable ponzi scheme. We cannot simply carry on as we are because you cannot tax your way of an ever increasing public spending and demographic crisis
They also have a solution. Stage 2. This solution, which is not the only possible one but is valid none the less - cutting the size of the state and making people more responsible for their own well being - could work if it is done carefully and thoughtfully and by taking the public along with you through education and open debate of the issues and the possible solutions. That relies on politicians being honest and also ensuring that the basic principles of fairness and a proper safety net are retained. It also relies on picking the right moment to start it.
But the last stage - now this is where they show their true colours and simply go mad. They are so inept and so drunk with their own power that they have managed to do just about every single thing wrong. Wrong timing, wrong policies, wrong winners and certainly wrong losers. No preparation, no explanation and no remorse when it all goes wrong. They are just, basically, fecking useless.
It doesn't change the fact that the analysis and the possible solution (amongst others) were all sound. But they are so totally incompetent and arrogant that that all counts for nothing.
The trouble is that when they are long gone the problems will still remain and I don't really see any other UK politicians facing up to that fact in the next decade and making any meaningful attempts to deal with it. I would like to think I am wrong on this and that Starmer or Gove or Badenock or some other politician yet to emerge will grasp the issues and make a meaningful attempt to solve them. But I am not holding my breath.
you are saying this moment is in fact 1975, not 1995 - an orthodoxy, a consensus, is rightly being challenged here, if/when managed well it actually represents the future, and shapes the future?
Indeed. But I also don't think the solutions that were developed from 1979 onwards are necessarily going to be the ones that work this time.
To a large extent Thatcher had it easy. So much of the UK economy was nationalised that privatising it was, for a significant majority of the public, fairly uncontroversial. That easy solution no longer exists.
The past decade and a half had been mostly Labour years and so it was also relatively easy to place the blame elsewhere. The Tories cannot do that now. Only Labour can and I am not sure they are in the right place ideologically to challenge the orthodoxy.
And, of course, there was a ready source of income in the form of North Sea Oil to help pay for the transition. Again, that large reserve does not exist today.
Everything fell right for a paradigm shift in the late 70s. I am not sure anything is right for a similar shift today. Nor, if I am honest, do I know what that shift should necessarily be. All I know is that something has to give and either we control it or it will happen anyway in a form we might not like at all.
The biggest single issue facing governments of all shades and hues is the issue of an ageing population, because that puts pressure on government spending (pensions and health care), diverting workers into looking after the elderly, while at the same time meaning a smaller proportion of people are of working age.
The first step to solving this is to make sure that *everyone* is saving for their own retirement all the time - which probably means a system like the Australian compulsory saving scheme.
The issue is that - while this is absolutely the right thing in the long-term - it means one generation of workers will simultaneously be paying for yesterday's unfunded promises, and saving for their own retirement. And that is a very hard sell.
To what extent will ageing population - a demographic time bomb to pay for - build in permanent high inflation making under 2% target laughable?
potentially zero - just look at Japan...
What it builds in is a lack of growth opportunities because the workforce is slowing down / retiring...
It looks now like Russia is losing the entire Ukrainian war
As @DavidL says, this makes the next few week the moment of maximum peril. With every day that passes, without Putin doing something insane, we can breathe easier
A long time to go yet, however. Or: it will feel long
Truss must be praying for VVP to go nuclear. That would clearly move the story on.
I would hope that we don’t have someone at the top who is actually wanting Russia to fire a nuclear weapon. That would say a lot about our leadership, and not good
@Leon tried to tell us how fantastic Liz Truss was going to be. I assume he has now recanted.
Has there ever, in British history, been a more inept person as Prime Minister? She is absolutely dire. The most godawful, out of depth, useless, zombified, disaster zone in political history:
How the hell did the Conservative membership do this to themselves and us?
"But I was right about the necklace..."
Yes, I was right about the necklace. Best call ever made on PB, in terms of insight into a politician’s character from day 1
IMHO…
And I NEVER said “Liz Truss is going to be fantastic” - or if I did it was clearly a joke, as in “Britain should invade France”. I make jokes
I wanted Mordaunt to win til she emerged as Woke. After that I rather despaired of the choice. IIRC the most positive thing I said about Truss was “she’s brave”, “she might surprise on the upside”, “let’s give her a chance”
She’s had her chance, she hasn’t surprised on the upside, she is brave - but it topples into recklessness
You'll always have the necklace.
I will
It is the political psychoanalysis equivalent of Mike Smithson‘s 50/1 on the obscure Obama as POTUS
Probably my proudest moment on the site in terms of particular insight. So maybe @dougseal is right. That’s my PB epitaph. Lol
Also, Covid, Lab Leak, AI, What3Words, AND THE ALIENS, but I’ll ignore those for now
Do we know for sure the necklace thing is definitely real rather than a product of journalistic 2+2=5?
@Leon tried to tell us how fantastic Liz Truss was going to be. I assume he has now recanted.
Has there ever, in British history, been a more inept person as Prime Minister? She is absolutely dire. The most godawful, out of depth, useless, zombified, disaster zone in political history:
How the hell did the Conservative membership do this to themselves and us?
"But I was right about the necklace..."
Yes, I was right about the necklace. Best call ever made on PB, in terms of insight into a politician’s character from day 1
IMHO…
And I NEVER said “Liz Truss is going to be fantastic” - or if I did it was clearly a joke, as in “Britain should invade France”. I make jokes
I wanted Mordaunt to win til she emerged as Woke. After that I rather despaired of the choice. IIRC the most positive thing I said about Truss was “she’s brave”, “she might surprise on the upside”, “let’s give her a chance”
She’s had her chance, she hasn’t surprised on the upside, she is brave - but it topples into recklessness
You'll always have the necklace.
I will
It is the political psychoanalysis equivalent of Mike Smithson‘s 50/1 on the obscure Obama as POTUS
Probably my proudest moment on the site in terms of particular insight. So maybe @dougseal is right. That’s my PB epitaph. Lol
Also, Covid, Lab Leak, AI, What3Words, AND THE ALIENS, but I’ll ignore those for now
Do we know for sure the necklace thing is definitely real rather than a product of journalistic 2+2=5?
It looks now like Russia is losing the entire Ukrainian war
As @DavidL says, this makes the next few week the moment of maximum peril. With every day that passes, without Putin doing something insane, we can breathe easier
A long time to go yet, however. Or: it will feel long
Truss must be praying for VVP to go nuclear. That would clearly move the story on.
I would hope that we don’t have someone at the top who is actually wanting Russia to fire a nuclear weapon. That would say a lot about our leadership, and not good
Dura_Ace is just being silly. Because Russia is getting (ahem) butt-hurt in Ukraine, he wants to give the impression that we're just as bad as Putin and his regime.
@Leon tried to tell us how fantastic Liz Truss was going to be. I assume he has now recanted.
Has there ever, in British history, been a more inept person as Prime Minister? She is absolutely dire. The most godawful, out of depth, useless, zombified, disaster zone in political history:
How the hell did the Conservative membership do this to themselves and us?
"But I was right about the necklace..."
Yes, I was right about the necklace. Best call ever made on PB, in terms of insight into a politician’s character from day 1
IMHO…
And I NEVER said “Liz Truss is going to be fantastic” - or if I did it was clearly a joke, as in “Britain should invade France”. I make jokes
I wanted Mordaunt to win til she emerged as Woke. After that I rather despaired of the choice. IIRC the most positive thing I said about Truss was “she’s brave”, “she might surprise on the upside”, “let’s give her a chance”
She’s had her chance, she hasn’t surprised on the upside, she is brave - but it topples into recklessness
I'm still no entirely sure how you were 'right' about the necklace? You have suggested it means she is into bondage. She may be. She may not be. Have you proof? And bullshit rumours don't cut it.
I did some like research on his account and others like him (i.e. the "Everything is going to plan" gang) and his account only took off in July, prior to then he was posting the exact same stuff and get basically zero likes and retweets but in July it exploded. I presume this syncs up with when the Russian advance in the East stalled out. Over the course of the invasion the Pro-Russian Everything is Going Great accounts have gradually shut up shop as the person running the account realises Russia is not doing well. Yet there is an audience for the content so people cast around to find someone still espousing Russis-Winning-Here. It's the same for Big Serge and others, they were absolutely nothing accounts until July and then suddenly they became big.
Yep, losing half of their Kherson Oblast territory inside 48 hours, that’s all part of The Big Plan.
(Ignore the five figures of troops, and hundreds of expensive and increasingly rare vehicles, effectively trapped West of the Deniper, starved of supplies for weeks, down on morale and unable to be replaced).
They’re “Winning Here”, as much as the Lib Dems were preparing for government under Jo Swinson.
I hope to goodness that it'll be a rare de-escalation from Putin. But it'll probably be a reclassifying of the war in the illegally annexed territories, allowing him to commit even more atrocities.
@Leon tried to tell us how fantastic Liz Truss was going to be. I assume he has now recanted.
Has there ever, in British history, been a more inept person as Prime Minister? She is absolutely dire. The most godawful, out of depth, useless, zombified, disaster zone in political history:
How the hell did the Conservative membership do this to themselves and us?
"But I was right about the necklace..."
Yes, I was right about the necklace. Best call ever made on PB, in terms of insight into a politician’s character from day 1
IMHO…
And I NEVER said “Liz Truss is going to be fantastic” - or if I did it was clearly a joke, as in “Britain should invade France”. I make jokes
I wanted Mordaunt to win til she emerged as Woke. After that I rather despaired of the choice. IIRC the most positive thing I said about Truss was “she’s brave”, “she might surprise on the upside”, “let’s give her a chance”
She’s had her chance, she hasn’t surprised on the upside, she is brave - but it topples into recklessness
I'm still no entirely sure how you were 'right' about the necklace? You have suggested it means she is into bondage. She may be. She may not be. Have you proof? And bullshit rumours don't cut it.
@Leon tried to tell us how fantastic Liz Truss was going to be. I assume he has now recanted.
Has there ever, in British history, been a more inept person as Prime Minister? She is absolutely dire. The most godawful, out of depth, useless, zombified, disaster zone in political history:
How the hell did the Conservative membership do this to themselves and us?
"But I was right about the necklace..."
Yes, I was right about the necklace. Best call ever made on PB, in terms of insight into a politician’s character from day 1
IMHO…
And I NEVER said “Liz Truss is going to be fantastic” - or if I did it was clearly a joke, as in “Britain should invade France”. I make jokes
I wanted Mordaunt to win til she emerged as Woke. After that I rather despaired of the choice. IIRC the most positive thing I said about Truss was “she’s brave”, “she might surprise on the upside”, “let’s give her a chance”
She’s had her chance, she hasn’t surprised on the upside, she is brave - but it topples into recklessness
You'll always have the necklace.
I will
It is the political psychoanalysis equivalent of Mike Smithson‘s 50/1 on the obscure Obama as POTUS
Probably my proudest moment on the site in terms of particular insight. So maybe @dougseal is right. That’s my PB epitaph. Lol
Also, Covid, Lab Leak, AI, What3Words, AND THE ALIENS, but I’ll ignore those for now
Do we know for sure the necklace thing is definitely real rather than a product of journalistic 2+2=5?
Senior Tory figures are preparing to enforce “brutal” party discipline on rebel MPs when they return to Parliament.
In a hardline drive inspired by Boris’s expulsion of Brexit critics, the whip will be removed for votes against mini-Budget.
How on earth does that even begin to work?!
Their most experienced Whip is Pincher. He’s gone (?) and “brutal” party discipline didn’t sort anything for Johnson. The 2019 GE did that.
I don't see how they last til 2024. I think laying that is the best bet around in UK politics.
If Truss stays she will be completely restricted in her actions by her Tory opponents. She won't be able to do very much of what she wants to do, and has little inclination to carry on Boris' programmes. Sooner or later she will call an election to have some chance of a manifesto that is aligned to her.
If she goes, her supporters will block whatever a new PM does as illegitimate and against the wishes of the party members.
I am expecting a general election middle of next year.
Actually, I fear he is going to escalate again. Full mobilisation and a declaration of war, with a VERY overt waving of his nuclear wanger, perhaps accompanied by a “test”
He doesn’t have many choices other than this - his alternative is accept a humiliating defeat and.. sue for peace? What?
Senior Tory figures are preparing to enforce “brutal” party discipline on rebel MPs when they return to Parliament.
In a hardline drive inspired by Boris’s expulsion of Brexit critics, the whip will be removed for votes against mini-Budget.
How on earth does that even begin to work?!
Their most experienced Whip is Pincher. He’s gone (?) and “brutal” party discipline didn’t sort anything for Johnson. The 2019 GE did that.
It will certainly be entertaining to watch, someone with no authority or credibility imposing 'brutal' discipline.
The two options are that she either gets forced out (unlikely based on past experience) or just limps along from crisis to crisis with nothing much happening.
It looks now like Russia is losing the entire Ukrainian war
As @DavidL says, this makes the next few week the moment of maximum peril. With every day that passes, without Putin doing something insane, we can breathe easier
A long time to go yet, however. Or: it will feel long
It will for you. For most of us we have other things in our lives. Teaching has started on semester 1 for me. Lots of happy students. I turn 50 on saturday so get togethers with family and friends. Assuming Putin doesn't nuke Warminster in the interim, of course.
Is he actually going to say the W-word, given how freaked out the Russian media and middle-classes were by the conscription of a few hundred thousand last month?
It was the natural progression from his announced annexation, that the Ukranians and NATO were now attacking Russian soil, but it’s a big rolling of the dice and hoping for two sixes.
He’s a day late and a dollar short, if he thinks he can now prevent a humiliating defeat in Ukraine. He’s not no tanks, no winter uniforms, no morale among those troops already in Ukraine, limited ability to train the new recruits, little manufacturing capability thanks to sanctions…
At what point do the remaining generals act as the men in grey suits, and send him to an island somewhere to live out his remaining days in relative peace?
@Leon tried to tell us how fantastic Liz Truss was going to be. I assume he has now recanted.
Has there ever, in British history, been a more inept person as Prime Minister? She is absolutely dire. The most godawful, out of depth, useless, zombified, disaster zone in political history:
How the hell did the Conservative membership do this to themselves and us?
"But I was right about the necklace..."
Yes, I was right about the necklace. Best call ever made on PB, in terms of insight into a politician’s character from day 1
IMHO…
And I NEVER said “Liz Truss is going to be fantastic” - or if I did it was clearly a joke, as in “Britain should invade France”. I make jokes
I wanted Mordaunt to win til she emerged as Woke. After that I rather despaired of the choice. IIRC the most positive thing I said about Truss was “she’s brave”, “she might surprise on the upside”, “let’s give her a chance”
She’s had her chance, she hasn’t surprised on the upside, she is brave - but it topples into recklessness
You'll always have the necklace.
I will
It is the political psychoanalysis equivalent of Mike Smithson‘s 50/1 on the obscure Obama as POTUS
Probably my proudest moment on the site in terms of particular insight. So maybe @dougseal is right. That’s my PB epitaph. Lol
Also, Covid, Lab Leak, AI, What3Words, AND THE ALIENS, but I’ll ignore those for now
Do we know for sure the necklace thing is definitely real rather than a product of journalistic 2+2=5?
Of course we don't.
Well of course of course we don't, what would knowing for sure actually look like? We all live our lives on the basis of provisional beliefs about other people not amounting to provable facts, it just would not otherwise work.
@Leon tried to tell us how fantastic Liz Truss was going to be. I assume he has now recanted.
Has there ever, in British history, been a more inept person as Prime Minister? She is absolutely dire. The most godawful, out of depth, useless, zombified, disaster zone in political history:
How the hell did the Conservative membership do this to themselves and us?
"But I was right about the necklace..."
Yes, I was right about the necklace. Best call ever made on PB, in terms of insight into a politician’s character from day 1
And I NEVER said “Liz Truss is going to be fantastic” - or if I did it was clearly a joke, as in “Britain should invade France”. I make jokes
I wanted Mordaunt to win til she emerged as Woke. After that I rather despaired of the choice. IIRC the most positive thing I said about Truss was “she’s brave”, “she might surprise on the upside”, “let’s give her a chance”
She’s had her chance, she hasn’t surprised on the upside, she is brave - but it topples into recklessness
“If I did it was clearly a joke” - a fitting summary of your PB career and likely the epitaph eventually engraved onto your flint gravestone.
A better epitaph than yours, which is “er, who the fuck was @dougseal?”
I quite like that. Might stipulate it in my will... Possibly with a change to make it my name, but then maybe not - leave it all the more mysterious
There used to be some grafitti in Warminster (well near one of the field barns associated with UFO's at any rate) that said "Is the ginger floss real?". Totally enigmatic. Brilliant for a tombstone.
Senior Tory figures are preparing to enforce “brutal” party discipline on rebel MPs when they return to Parliament.
In a hardline drive inspired by Boris’s expulsion of Brexit critics, the whip will be removed for votes against mini-Budget.
How on earth does that even begin to work?!
Their most experienced Whip is Pincher. He’s gone (?) and “brutal” party discipline didn’t sort anything for Johnson. The 2019 GE did that.
I don't see how they last til 2024. I think laying that is the best bet around in UK politics.
If Truss stays she will be completely restricted in her actions by her Tory opponents. She won't be able to do very much of what she wants to do, and has little inclination to carry on Boris' programmes. Sooner or later she will call an election to have some chance of a manifesto that is aligned to her.
If she goes, her supporters will block whatever a new PM does as illegitimate and against the wishes of the party members.
I am expecting a general election middle of next year.
Comments
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani
We are currently dealing with the damage caused by hurricane Liz but fortunately that one seems to be fizzling out fast.
https://andrewsullivan.substack.com/p/fiona-hill-on-russia-trump-the-american
But Truss and Kwarteng's own accident-prone appearances are part of the problem, MPs say.
Ahead of the PM's big speech, the latest #WaughOnPolitics:
https://inews.co.uk/opinion/liz-truss-and-kwasi-kwarteng-are-fuelling-the-undeclared-tory-civil-war-not-calming-it-1893724
Edit SMO Special Military Operation. VK = ?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thesun.co.uk/money/20008271/ministers-raise-pension-age-next-decade/amp/
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1577564839693746176
Yes, I was right about the necklace. Best call ever made on PB, in terms of insight into a politician’s character from day 1
IMHO…
And I NEVER said “Liz Truss is going to be fantastic” - or if I did it was clearly a joke, as in “Britain should invade France”. I make jokes
I wanted Mordaunt to win til she emerged as Woke. After that I rather despaired of the choice. IIRC the most positive thing I said about Truss was “she’s brave”, “she might surprise on the upside”, “let’s give her a chance”
She’s had her chance, she hasn’t surprised on the upside, she is brave - but it topples into recklessness
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1577566798681104385/photo/1
https://twitter.com/PhantomPower14/status/1577356617154183183?s=20&t=vUfRXIlXzhqdX9Tv_QXRGg
“You've done me wrong, your time is up.”
https://twitter.com/STVKathryn/status/1577565218019987458
What it builds in is a lack of growth opportunities because the workforce is slowing down / retiring...
https://archive.ph/7PTcI
All around me are familiar faces, worn out places, worn out faces...
Earth seemed a desert I was bound to traverse,
Seeking to find the old familiar faces.
Friend of my bosom, thou more than a brother,
Why wert not thou born in my father's dwelling?
So might we talk of the old familiar faces —
How some they have died, and some they have left me,
And some are taken from me; all are departed;
All, all are gone, the old familiar faces.
Hook Hand Thug: Go, live your dream.
Flynn Rider Suella: I will.
Hook Hand Thug: Your dream stinks. I was talking to her Sir Keir.
Common Seal
Holocene Epoch
As @DavidL says, this makes the next few week the moment of maximum peril. With every day that passes, without Putin doing something insane, we can breathe easier
A long time to go yet, however. Or: it will feel long
It is the political psychoanalysis equivalent of Mike Smithson‘s 50/1 on the obscure Obama as POTUS
Probably my proudest moment on the site in terms of particular insight. So maybe @dougseal is right. That’s my PB epitaph. Lol
Also, Covid, Lab Leak, AI, What3Words, AND THE ALIENS, but I’ll ignore those for now
Destroying the Pound, destroying education, letting the rich off and a giant fuck you to people that work by keeping the triple lock and putting my pension age up.
We won’t forget this.
Topical study:
"More than 330,000 excess deaths in Great Britain in recent years can be attributed to spending cuts to public services and benefits introduced by a UK government pursuing austerity policies, according to an academic study.
The authors of the study suggest additional deaths between 2012 and 2019 – prior to the Covid pandemic – reflect an increase in people dying prematurely after experiencing reduced income, ill-health, poor nutrition and housing, and social isolation.
Previously improving mortality trends started to change for the worse after austerity policies introduced in 2010 when tens of billions of pounds began to be cut from public spending by the Tory-led coalition government, the study said."
I mean they realised they joined the Conservative party right ?
The problem is this combination of those on benefits and pensioners, many of whom are very much in the latter category.
His constant vituperation of the Tories would have made a fitting spectacle right now. Perhaps he simply exploded
The coffee's clearly kicked in ;-)
Seems I was completely wrong as she will now face one in November.
Ben Wallace coronation rather than Truss' finger on the nuclear button
Sadly their sauerkraut is nothing special. So maybe they are the Stone Roses of German-Jewish condiments. One great album, then dreck
But you always have that album
I did some like research on his account and others like him (i.e. the "Everything is going to plan" gang) and his account only took off in July, prior to then he was posting the exact same stuff and get basically zero likes and retweets but in July it exploded. I presume this syncs up with when the Russian advance in the East stalled out. Over the course of the invasion the Pro-Russian Everything is Going Great accounts have gradually shut up shop as the person running the account realises Russia is not doing well. Yet there is an audience for the content so people cast around to find someone still espousing Russis-Winning-Here. It's the same for Big Serge and others, they were absolutely nothing accounts until July and then suddenly they became big.
Instead of Thatcher, think of Truss as Keith Joseph, and ask the question what is the point of Starmer doing a 74-79 and then allowing the Tories to shape the inevitable change that is needed and coming? 😦
It is one long series of military disasters that will keep the military strategy textbook writers busy for years.
Senior Tory figures are preparing to enforce “brutal” party discipline on rebel MPs when they return to Parliament.
In a hardline drive inspired by Boris’s expulsion of Brexit critics, the whip will be removed for votes against mini-Budget.
How on earth does that even begin to work?!
@MarQs__
·
16m
Putin may address the nation today to change the status of the "special operation" - Readovka
https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1577572560291741696
We're not.
(Ignore the five figures of troops, and hundreds of expensive and increasingly rare vehicles, effectively trapped West of the Deniper, starved of supplies for weeks, down on morale and unable to be replaced).
They’re “Winning Here”, as much as the Lib Dems were preparing for government under Jo Swinson.
If Truss stays she will be completely restricted in her actions by her Tory opponents. She won't be able to do very much of what she wants to do, and has little inclination to carry on Boris' programmes. Sooner or later she will call an election to have some chance of a manifesto that is aligned to her.
If she goes, her supporters will block whatever a new PM does as illegitimate and against the wishes of the party members.
I am expecting a general election middle of next year.
Actually, I fear he is going to escalate again. Full mobilisation and a declaration of war, with a VERY overt waving of his nuclear wanger, perhaps accompanied by a “test”
He doesn’t have many choices other than this - his alternative is accept a humiliating defeat and.. sue for peace? What?
The two options are that she either gets forced out (unlikely based on past experience) or just limps along from crisis to crisis with nothing much happening.
Teachers, NHS staff and firefighters face curbs on right to strike under plans being drawn up by Liz Truss
PM considering radical extension of laws to ensure minimum service during rail strikes to apply across public sector
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ministers-plan-strike-curbs-to-avoid-total-shutdown-98pc6rx7d
It was the natural progression from his announced annexation, that the Ukranians and NATO were now attacking Russian soil, but it’s a big rolling of the dice and hoping for two sixes.
He’s a day late and a dollar short, if he thinks he can now prevent a humiliating defeat in Ukraine. He’s not no tanks, no winter uniforms, no morale among those troops already in Ukraine, limited ability to train the new recruits, little manufacturing capability thanks to sanctions…
At what point do the remaining generals act as the men in grey suits, and send him to an island somewhere to live out his remaining days in relative peace?
A 25min speech... Looks like she's got nothing to say.
https://twitter.com/AliFortescue/status/1577580066447441920
https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1577538846236999681