Labour 52% (+6) Conservative 24% (-5) Liberal Democrat 10% (-3) Green 5% (+1) SNP 5% (+2) Reform UK 3% (-1) Other 1% (–)
Changes +/- 28-29 Sept
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…
Whoops
Lead below 30 points.
Conference bounce for Truss?
Why are Lib Dems taking a hammering - they didn’t aid and abet the bad budget! 😠
Libdems the only challengers throughout Blue wall so why don’t they share the Tory slump? Something whiffs about these polls to me, I think they are Mickey Mouse polls, I don’t trust them as being remotely permanent.
There has been ephemeral polling glitches before, Hague wiped out Blair’s lead during Labour conference week one year, voter frustration with not liking being unable to put petrol in car. It was all short lived, polls went straight back to normal a few weeks later.
Without that foundation in fact Lib Dems should not be dropping by a quarter, they should be going up with blue wall voters switching from Tory to them, I refuse to believe these polls are for keeps, I choose to believe it will be back to a Lab lead about 10 in a few weeks and Lib Dems back to 12+. You can’t believe something is for real when its not founded in fact. Do you see what I mean.
Suppose LibDems had a 20% share in every seat. They would get zero seats with a 20% share. Look at the Greens. 5% share, 1 seat.
Suppose LibDems had a 50% share in 50 seats and a 2% share in the other 600 seats. They would get 50 seat with an overall share of just 6%. Look at the SNP. 5% share, 51 seats.
As voters get wiser to tactical voting and Labour becomes more LibDem friendly, I think that LibDem supporters in Labour seats are declaring that they will vote Labour at a General Election, and in Tory/LibDem marginals, Labour supporters are declaring for the LibDems to get the Tories out.
That is why, as a LibDem, I'm pleased to see the national LibDem share remain around 10%. I know it is a LOT higher in Tory/LibDem marginals. So it must be a LOT lower in the many Tory/Labour marginals - which is good news for anti-Tory voters, who are the large majority.
I don’t really want to argue with this thought out piece of Barnesian thinking, but I don’t believe it as much as I want to.
Lib Dems jump from third to win with 30% swings because the people there just can’t make the leap to Labour, so why would they tell pollsters something different right now?
I have my own theory. I think the polls are wrong now for the same reason polls are always wrong, underestimating Trump and Bolsonaro for two recent examples - the pollsters are now struggling for balanced and honest samples, Truss and Tories have a lot more support than shown waiting in the polling station, it’s just hiding off grid now or lying to pollsters out of sense of embarrassment.
One poll today greens up 1 to 5 Lib Dem down 3 to 10? That tells you there’s inherent vice in the poll. I would believe your theory over mine if less of the Tory plunge broke for Labour and more of it to Lib Dem.
You're assuming people move along a left-right axis, so in departing from the Conservatives their natural next stop is the LibDems. Most people don't think in those orderly terms. They think "Tories, god, they've lost the plot, who else is there?" and they see a lot of Starmer and Reeves sounding sensible, and virtually nothing about the LibDems (who were profoundly unlucky to have their conference cancelled), so they say ":Labour". It's not mysterious, or necessarily permanent.
I don’t think that’s entirely right. A lot of moderate Conservative voters don’t see themselves as particularly political and are motivated more by dislike or even fear of a left-wing government than they are by anything positive that the Tories are advocating (partly explaining why negative campaigning from the Tories can be so very effective).
Whilst you’re right that when these Tories become unhappy with what their party is doing - usually when it has put its own political obsessions before common sense - sensible moderate Labourism can tempt some of these people over, there is still a considerable number who would never vote Labour, but would vote LibDem.
Like me! I am living proof Nick and Barnsy have called this wrong - did you see Mick and Corbyn on the picket line the other day with all their donkey jacket goons, the Lynch Mob around them? Do you think I could go to a polling station and cast a vote for the party associated with that lot?
But you will go and cast a vote for a Party that tried to use borrowing to fund tax cuts for the wealthy and whose incompetence nearly wrecked the UK pensions industry and then pushed up mortgage repayments for the entire nation.
Obviously far less dangerous than voting for a leftie union rep that wants more pay for his members. Like all union reps.
You have a very odd set of priorities.
You what? I’m voting Lib Dem.
Interesting how you mistook my gently satirising the pitch of Team Truss as real, and it got under your skin earlier. I conclude the mind of Truss is the very antithesis of your own views.
Yes. Truss irritates me greatly because she is so bl**dy stupid and has made it to the top job. It is a searing indictment of how seriously stuffed the UK has become. That the Leader of the country can be so woefully inadequate should annoy the whole country.
My apologies to you for mistaking you as a Tory voter. You do a convincing job of putting yourself over as one.
It was quite clear from the posts I was explaining what the pitch is. That same pitch had worked well for Trump and Bolsonaro hasn’t it? Let’s take another look
From highest tax take since the war your taxes back in your family’s housekeeping pot to spend how you wish, you want the idle hooked on state hand outs to find a job, as they are in bed as you go out for your first job of the day to come back to news tte country is unproductive, you want growth, you want Aspiration Britain, productivity and growth (and growth, did I mention growth?) You want an end to our nations decline, you want a UK punching it’s weight in world again.
Surely opinion polls putting this pitch at under 33% are under estimating the appeal of this message amongst all those who will vote at the next election?
You are projecting what you think I want rather than knowing what I actually do want. How sad.
Goodnight.
What? 🥹
It’s not my pitch. We are exploring is this “their pitch” - it seems to be, Kwarteng clearly criticising not just the previous Labour years but the Tory years since 2010 for not measuring up against this pitch, the same from Truss will confirm it.
We know it already? is it not like Trump, Bolsonaro etc so simple a construct from key dog whistles and flag waving?
And, (you can imagine C4 News asking a pollster) is it the sort of pitch to drive voters off polling grids for the big surprise come Election Day? So you could never really be sure from polling you have it beaten.
lol so we were 14 minutes from the world ending and almost everyone was entirely unaware
.... except everyone in Japan, who must be having a fucking heart attack
Way to frighten everyone. Surely co-ordinated with Putin
The almost inevitable consequence of this and China’s behaviour is that Japan will become an official nuclear state. And Taiwan may well follow. Both have ample capability.
The governing Coalition Avenir Québec has won the Québec provincial election with about 45% of the vote and about 92 seats out of 125. The opposition was hopelessly divided between the other parties, none of whom got more than about 15%.
lol so we were 14 minutes from the world ending and almost everyone was entirely unaware
.... except everyone in Japan, who must be having a fucking heart attack
Way to frighten everyone. Surely co-ordinated with Putin
The almost inevitable consequence of this and China’s behaviour is that Japan will become an official nuclear state. And Taiwan may well follow. Both have ample capability.
And South Korea. And probably Indonesia. Say hello to a nuclearised Asia
https://twitter.com/Schneider_CM/status/1577037548085559296 The U.S. Sixth District Court of Appeals found in favor of the police department, saying that while the department's actions may have been excessive and unwise, the officers are entitled to qualified immunity.
They arrested a man for setting up a parody Facebook account which mocked them.
We’re now, what? 4 hours on from NKs rocket launch over Japan and the BBC website has absolutely nothing…
It’s a big news story.
I wonder if the BBC editors have been briefed by the MOD/GCHQ, given the current tensions, and we have reporting restrictions in place for this kind of thing, now?
I recon this experience tells us that the BBC simply wouldn’t report a suspected nuclear attack until several hours after Twitter/other reputable foreign news sites.
Another first amendment case about to hit the courts. It ought to be thrown out in short order, as it effectively seeks to make political speech impossible, but with the recent behaviour of rogue justices - which includes half the Supreme Court - who knows ?
We’re now, what? 4 hours on from NKs rocket launch over Japan and the BBC website has absolutely nothing…
It’s a big news story.
I wonder if the BBC editors have been briefed by the MOD/GCHQ, given the current tensions, and we have reporting restrictions in place for this kind of thing, now?
I recon this experience tells us that the BBC simply wouldn’t report a suspected nuclear attack until several hours after Twitter/other reputable foreign news sites.
Interesting. And rather scary.
Dont want to downplay it but Hokkaido has been here before (2017 IIRC), it has some of the best tracking/early warning systems in the region so I reckon they soon worked out that it was overflying...which doesnt excuse N Korea's actions but a bit like earthquakes etc they live with it.
We’re now, what? 4 hours on from NKs rocket launch over Japan and the BBC website has absolutely nothing…
It’s a big news story.
I wonder if the BBC editors have been briefed by the MOD/GCHQ, given the current tensions, and we have reporting restrictions in place for this kind of thing, now?
I recon this experience tells us that the BBC simply wouldn’t report a suspected nuclear attack until several hours after Twitter/other reputable foreign news sites.
Interesting. And rather scary.
It’s a bit of a stretch to describe it as “a suspected nuclear attack”.
The lack of speed in breaking stories isn’t unusual, and likely has more to do with BBC cuts, particularly as related to the website, than anything more sinister.
We’re now, what? 4 hours on from NKs rocket launch over Japan and the BBC website has absolutely nothing…
It’s a big news story.
I wonder if the BBC editors have been briefed by the MOD/GCHQ, given the current tensions, and we have reporting restrictions in place for this kind of thing, now?
I recon this experience tells us that the BBC simply wouldn’t report a suspected nuclear attack until several hours after Twitter/other reputable foreign news sites.
Interesting. And rather scary.
Dont want to downplay it but Hokkaido has been here before (2017 IIRC), it has some of the best tracking/early warning systems in the region so I reckon they soon worked out that it was overflying...which doesnt excuse N Korea's actions but a bit like earthquakes etc they live with it.
Agreed. It’s probably a very good thing that news editors don’t adopt an @Leon mode of reacting to news, otherwise we’d all be in a state of constant panic.
Which, while you might argue is justified, would be undeniably counterproductive to the general welfare.
We’re now, what? 4 hours on from NKs rocket launch over Japan and the BBC website has absolutely nothing…
It’s a big news story.
I wonder if the BBC editors have been briefed by the MOD/GCHQ, given the current tensions, and we have reporting restrictions in place for this kind of thing, now?
I recon this experience tells us that the BBC simply wouldn’t report a suspected nuclear attack until several hours after Twitter/other reputable foreign news sites.
Interesting. And rather scary.
It’s a bit of a stretch to describe it as “a suspected nuclear attack”.
The lack of speed in breaking stories isn’t unusual, and likely has more to do with BBC cuts, particularly as related to the website, than anything more sinister.
North Korea launching a missile isn't news. It not exploding half way, might be. It's just attention seeking from The Leader.
Comments
It’s not my pitch. We are exploring is this “their pitch” - it seems to be, Kwarteng clearly criticising not just the previous Labour years but the Tory years since 2010 for not measuring up against this pitch, the same from Truss will confirm it.
We know it already? is it not like Trump, Bolsonaro etc so simple a construct from key dog whistles and flag waving?
And, (you can imagine C4 News asking a pollster) is it the sort of pitch to drive voters off polling grids for the big surprise come Election Day? So you could never really be sure from polling you have it beaten.
If we're all dead from nuclear annihilation in the morning then this shall be my final message... But if not then just {Move_Along}{Move_Along}
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/en/results-and-statistics/provincial-general-elections-live-results/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Xyp3Suntqk
I am generally against the idea of people filing humorous amicus briefs, but this one from The Onion is outstanding:
https://supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/22/22-293/242292/20221003125252896_35295545_1-22.10.03 - Novak-Parma - Onion Amicus Brief.pdf
https://twitter.com/Schneider_CM/status/1577037548085559296
The U.S. Sixth District Court of Appeals found in favor of the police department, saying that while the department's actions may have been excessive and unwise, the officers are entitled to qualified immunity.
They arrested a man for setting up a parody Facebook account which mocked them.
We’re now, what? 4 hours on from NKs rocket launch over Japan and the BBC website has absolutely nothing…
It’s a big news story.
I wonder if the BBC editors have been briefed by the MOD/GCHQ, given the current tensions, and we have reporting restrictions in place for this kind of thing, now?
I recon this experience tells us that the BBC simply wouldn’t report a suspected nuclear attack until several hours after Twitter/other reputable foreign news sites.
Interesting. And rather scary.
It ought to be thrown out in short order, as it effectively seeks to make political speech impossible, but with the recent behaviour of rogue justices - which includes half the Supreme Court - who knows ?
Trump sues CNN for defamation and seeks $475m in punitive damages
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/oct/03/trump-sues-cnn-defamation-punitive-damages
It was a deeply irresponsible provocation from North Korea, but the presumption was always that it was a test, even if some precautions (shelter advice etc) were taken.
It’s the latest in a series of tests, and it’s not the first time they fired a missile over Japan.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/nkorea-fires-missile-towards-east-skorea-military-2022-10-03/
The lack of speed in breaking stories isn’t unusual, and likely has more to do with BBC cuts, particularly as related to the website, than anything more sinister.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/04/north-korea-fires-missile-over-japan-prompting-warnings-for-residents-to-shelter
It was also on the BBC website an hour ago, but not the front page.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-63126534
It’s probably a very good thing that news editors don’t adopt an @Leon mode of reacting to news, otherwise we’d all be in a state of constant panic.
Which, while you might argue is justified, would be undeniably counterproductive to the general welfare.
Columbia's internal investigation found that Oz's research team inflicted extensive suffering on canine test subjects in violation of the Animal Welfare Act.
https://jezebel.com/dr-oz-s-scientific-experiments-killed-over-300-dogs-e-1849609272