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The Arc of History – politicalbetting.com
The Arc of History – politicalbetting.com
Those words of Millicent Fawcett are echoed by what we saw on the streets of London yesterday. A pro-Iranian women march met up with a pro-Ukraine one, both chanting “All together we will win.” A large screen in Piccadilly Circus displayed the motto “Woman, Life, Freedom” in solidarity with Iranian protestors. Lovely to see, but no courage is needed to do this in Britain.
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"Blackburn, Lancashire - Home of Four Thousand Holes (Made Famous by The Beatles)"
Yep. May seem unlikely, but better to be overcautious than not enough.
Tell it to Jeremy Corbyn, he'd be receptive.
It's like no one has ever experienced any work of fiction or morality reminding us that, occasionally, things are worth fighting for. As the Header might suggest.
“No.
Crimea is Ukraine. We can get a ceasefire when Russia is out of Ukraine.”
++++
This is the maximalist madness that will lead us to nuclear war. Crimea really is a “debatable land”. It is historically different to Lviv or Kyiv. It is much more Russian and Tatar
It was only cut away from mother Russia in the 1950s by Khrushchev
Let Russia keep Crimea (perhaps after another vote). Totally humiliating Russia means nuclear Holocaust for us all
@jessicaelgot
·
29m
Labour 25pt lead in new poll from
@SavantaComRes
Lab 50 (+7); Con 25 (-4); LD 11 (-1); SNP 3 (-2); Gre 3 (-1); Other 8 (=)
Largest ever Labour lead, highest ever Labour vote share
SNP -2 is interesting. But, subsample and MOE
“Ukraine-Russia Peace:
- Redo elections of annexed regions under UN supervision. Russia leaves if that is will of the people.
- Crimea formally part of Russia, as it has been since 1783 (until Khrushchev’s mistake).
- Water supply to Crimea assured.
- Ukraine remains neutral.”
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1576969255031296000?s=46&t=0y-JpaGY64C6jMM6Cl71NQ
So I don't buy it as a 'X would humiliate them too much, but not Y' argument.
On a practical level, without ever giving up its claims to Crimea, and given where things could have gone (and there is still a long way to go), it is easier to see a potential path though, if they felt the cost was too high.
As you say - debatable.
Truss vs Starmer (2 October):
Starmer leads Truss on ALL attributes:
Cares about people like me (47% | 16%)
Understands problems affecting the UK (46% | 23%)
Represents change (43% | 26%)
Can build a strong economy (44% | 22%)
Is a strong leader (41% | 22%)
Labour leads by 28%, largest lead for ANY party that we've recorded.
Westminster Voting Intention (2 Oct):
Labour 52% (+6)
Conservative 24% (-5)
Liberal Democrat 10% (-3)
Green 5% (+1)
SNP 5% (+2)
Reform UK 3% (-1)
Other 1% (–)
Changes +/- 28-29 Sept
Redfield and Wilton.
Lawyers are awesome, this is just further proof.
Or you like the idea of people who are not you fighting and dying because you quite enjoyed Les Miserables?
The problem is that small independent states near Russia tend not to stay that way.
There are many ways in which the position of women can be made worse. We should never be complacent. Even here.
Why not give Crimea to the Tartars or Cossacks (Kazakhs) as it was theirs before Russia’s as an independent state? Surely as legitimate?
If Ukraine must remain “neutral” then they should insist that Crimea is demilitarised including removing the Black Sea Fleet from Sevastopol.
Crimea is handed over to Russia if it defaults on trillions of reparations to Ukraine.
I despise Putin, loathe this war, and I am delighted Ukraine is on the attack
But we have to be realistic, because Russia is a great power with nukes. That’s just a fact
Totally humiliating Russia will simply provoke the ultra-Nationalists. Even if Putin falls he’ll be replaced by someone WORSE, who might be happy to hook up with China
Let them keep Crimea if Crimeans so desire
The Tories have been in power for 12 years. They must think we are all stupid - though the recent opinion polls suggest maybe we're not.
I know that certain kind of nationalist have a problem with this, but there are plenty of states with multiple ethnic groups in them. And they don’t always want to join the state next door on the grounds that they from the same group.
Edit: much better put by El Capitano and Northern Al!
Manchester for me has two things in its favour: 1) it's home, and 2) it just feels big in a way that none of the others bar London do.
Sheffield's city centre is perfectly pleasant, though small. Considering English cities through a different lens though Sheffield is arguably the 'best' city in the country. Around a third of its area is in a National Park for one thing. Even setting the non-urban bits aside though, it is wonderful; partly because of the hills, its suburbs are the best of any city on the list. Almost anywhere in urban Sheffield you can get a view which is striking and in most cases attractive.
Vodafone and Three UK accelerate talks to dial up 'merger'
A combined Vodafone and Three UK would become the biggest mobile telecoms supplier in Britain, with a deal potentially being struck by the end of the year, Sky News learns.
https://news.sky.com/story/vodafone-and-three-uk-accelerate-talks-to-dial-up-merger-12711050
Note that Putin in his speeches is playing to the disaffection of certain classes of young western male
And one persons whinge is anothers injustice....imagine the outcry if we accused women of whinging about things
Russia is fucked
HOWEVER, the repeal of Roe v Wade threatens to create a backlash, which it appears we're already seeing (for example, Kansas abortion referendum flop) in lead-up to US midterms.
PLUS the ongoing impact of the Me Too movement, which just chalked up another success (more or less) in US civil suit brought by Chinese student against Chinese business tycoon who allegedly got her drunk then raped her several years ago when she was going to school in Minnesota.
NYT ($) - Settlement Reached in U.S. Court on Chinese #MeToo Case
The case, involving a billionaire entrepreneur, riveted observers in China, where women alleging sexual wrongdoing by powerful men are often pilloried, silenced or both.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/02/world/asia/richard-liu-liu-jingyao-settlement.html
Liz Truss packed her cabinet with “cronies off the backbenches” rather than competent ministers with a range of views, and appeared to have no coherent plan behind her mini-budget, Michael Heseltine has said.
The ex-deputy prime minister and former senior Conservative, who sits in the Lords as an unaffiliated peer after being suspended from the party in 2019, also predicted that Truss’s chances of winning the next election were “looking pretty bleak”.
https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/03/liz-truss-picked-cronies-off-backbenches-for-cabinet-says-michael-heseltine
Anyway, irrespective of whom the Czar happens to be at any given time, the Russians aren't going to initiate a nuclear exchange over a collection of impoverished and ruined provinces that they know full well (whatever they insist in public) were thieved off the Ukrainians. Defeat means sulking, not suicide: you can't seek to emulate Peter the Great, or Stalin, or conquer all your neighbours or terrify them into quivering submission, if you're a charred skeleton and Russia itself is one vast sheet of radioactive glass.
They lose and they'll brood, sulk, foster grievances, pretend that it's everyone's fault except their own, and plot revenge further down the line (which they won't get because they're too poor, weak and backward.)
Neither side will be “happy”. However, Armageddon will be averted
It is a societal problem - aside from the fact we need people to form stable relationships and have children so we can all have someone to look after us in our old age, it implies men and women aren't communicating any more, which is a huge problem in the way we relate to one another.
We also have to question why "incels" are such a uniquely modern phenomenon.
There is the infamous Pew Research chart from 2018 that shows that the percentage of young men not having sex has risen from 10% in 2008 to 30% in 2018 - and while the number of young men not having sex is clearly out of historic norms, young women continue to have sex at normal rates, albeit less than in 2008.
https://twitter.com/_cingraham/status/1111607604348805120
So what is happening in society? Where did all the incels come from, and why did they start appearing so frequently in 2008? What changed?
My only interest was in using the "arc of history" reference (not in King).
You clearly don't like anything I write above or below the line, which is your prerogative. So let's take it as a given and then you don't have to do it every time. Which will save you time for other pursuits.
I do like to be helpful, if I can.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-63116304
This is why I have no time for religious zealots or even organised, evangelical religions. Look at the places in the world where women are the least safe and there is usually some under-educated, parochial air-breather spouting on about the evils of women and how the devil / Satan uses us to corrupt the faithful.
If you want women to be safer, stamp out the zealots - Christian, Muslim, Jewish, whatever. That would go a long way towards making many women safer.
(Seriously, there's no Nobel for general biology/evolution/geology so this is most unusual. And pleasing.)
The ugly guy who used to get laid by being funny or clever no longer gets a look-in. The girl swipes the wrong way and his jokes are unheard
The top 10% of males, looks-wise, get 80% of the sex. I believe research has proved this
The woman pulled the veil slightly to the side and just whispered 'Land mines'.
Ukraine is allowed to join NATO or the EU or whatever: Russia doesn't get a veto on the basis that they were once a great power.
I have a feeling it might not have had the attention it normally might. For obvious reasons.
These things matter. It’s realpolitik
I used to complain that us mid 70s born Gen Xers never had a shot at the top jobs. We get one, and this happens, FFS...
I’d expect these 20+ leads for Labour won’t last past this week as surely Truss and Kwarteng can’t do anything as bad again as last weeks debacle .
The Kremlin has been signalling its readiness for a significant escalation as Russia loses ground on the battlefield. Fears that Putin’s earlier hints that he might resort to such tactics were heightened today by claims that a train operated by the secretive nuclear division was destined for Ukraine.
Konrad Muzyka, a defence analyst based in Poland, said the train, spotted in central Russia, was linked to the 12th main directorate of the Russian ministry of defence and that it was “responsible for nuclear munitions, their storage, maintenance, transport, and issuance to units”.
International analysts suggest, however, that a more likely demonstration of Putin’s readiness to use nuclear weapons could come in the Black Sea. A senior defence source said that he faced a significant risk if he chose to deploy a nuclear weapon in the battlefield, as it could go wrong. “They could misfire and accidentally hit a Russian city close to the Ukrainian border such as Belgorod,” the source said. “Then he would have to escalate.”
Sources said Nato had sent an intelligence report to its members and allies alerting them to the fact that Russia is expected to test its nuclear-capable torpedo drone Poseidon, possibly in the Black Sea, which it controls. As officials in Washington draw up possible scenarios for a response, Nato is thought to have reported that the nuclear submarine K-329 Belgorod is headed to the Arctic, having become operational in July.
The Poseidon torpedo, dubbed the “weapon of the apocalypse”, can be launched from the submarine. According to La Repubblica newspaper, it is about to be tested in the area of the Kara Sea, north of the Russian mainland. The Poseidon operates autonomously and is about 24m (78ft) long, with a range of at least 10,000km (6,200 miles).
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/putin-orders-nuclear-military-train-to-ukraine-front-line-tswzv2v50
Incel (involuntarily celibate) is a subset of 'men who are just celibate'.
If dealing with women becomes too difficult and risky, then they could just decide to stop bothering.
No one is forcing men to have sex and go in to relationships with women.
Particularly now that you have pornography, virtual reality etc.
Perhaps it will get to the point where men adopt children, etc, in the way that single women sometimes give birth by IVF etc. Would this be such a bad thing?
I am not saying that this is a healthy state of affairs, but it could be where the current phase of the 'sexual revolution' is leading to.
https://unherd.com/2022/10/metoo-lost-me-the-love-of-my-life/
Three and Voda merge would be a powerhouse. They already merged in Australia
I posted the other day about the deplorable ministerial appointments by Truss. Other PMs used to appoint people, perhaps not well-known, presumably on merit. She chooses just to piss people off.
It mentions the Black Sea, then suggests geography that implies the White Sea.
Paper of record?
My arse.
Incels need to up their game in terms of presentation, drop their misogyny and treat the women they meet with kindness and respect. It really isn't a difficult formula.
So, possibly, are 90% of women. But perhaps men are less put off by this.
I blame the sweet dopamine hit of mobile phones, video gaming, and weed.
All are “more fun” than going out and actually meeting someone.
This is it. The moment of maximum peril approaches
This might help defend him against internal critics, but is going to have no impact on the war itself.
https://www.ft.com/content/ce3becd7-4098-45cc-afd5-ba145eda856a
“Bank of England buys just £22mn of bonds in latest purchasing operation
Central bank has bought £3.7bn worth of government debt out of a possible £20bn since scheme launched“
I don’t blame the girls for steering clear.
I personally find it bewildering. I have been honoured to share my entire adult life with a woman who is both cleverer than me and a better person (she would deny both). In my work as a prosecutor I am presented with disgusting, horrific, vile cases of men abusing women for their own sexual satisfaction or greed. It's horribly dispiriting. Many who do this kind of work for prosecution or defence find it so. But the response of patriarchs, religious, political or otherwise is to somehow blame the victims for this. It is mad, it is sick and we need to try harder to stop it. Much harder.