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Truss manages to infuriate Nadine – politicalbetting.com
Truss manages to infuriate Nadine – politicalbetting.com
I remember @NadineDorries and @Jacob_Rees_Mogg coming out into Downing Street after a cabinet meeting to publicly back Truss. Dorries was a loyalist and key backer. Now suggesting that Truss diverting from the Johnson administration to extent that she should call a GE https://t.co/NpCtLbEpdW
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Edit and thats with a dirty ground burst
Today NPR is back on the agenda https://www.itv.com/news/calendar/2022-10-03/pm-liz-truss-vows-to-include-bradford-in-northern-powerhouse-rail-plans
What gives...
Lisa O'Carroll
@lisaocarroll
Esther McVey calls on Liz Truss to increase and not cut benefits.
“What we have to do is bring people back to work and that will not be done by slashing the benefits budget”
https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1576893431150153728
Thanks everyone.
Tonight on Russian state TV: the mood is grim, look at their faces. Dmitry Sablin, Deputy Chairman of the Defense Committee, admits that Russia desperately needs "to stop and regroup" and is experiencing all sorts of shortages, compared to Ukraine that has it all —and then some.
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1576796427409559558
TL;DR
- restructure industry (how?!)
- restructure journalism (i.e. censorship if it wasn't already)
- Ukrainians are losing 7 to 10x the number of troops Russia is
- Overwhelming majority of Ukrainians are for Russia (how did that work out at the start of the war?)
- Russia is freeing Ukrainians of constant fear and stress
- At the end an argument as to whether Belarus is part of Russia or an independent state
I know you can show me polls (probably all of them actually) that show Boris doing better than Truss and I agree he would, but that doesn't mean those people who prefer Boris to Truss wouldn't prefer someone else to Boris.
And the key thing of course is Boris is not fit to be PM anyway even if he was as popular as sliced bread.
Russia using nukes and sending a mushroom cloud of radiation into Poland is an attack on NATO, they need to be in no doubt about that, and if they attack NATO then they own the consequences.
The alternative, is they choose not to attack NATO, not that NATO lets even attacks on NATO slide by.
2019 Labour voters’ VI:
Lab 85%
Grn 8%
LD 4%
SNP 1%
Con 1%
2019 Conservative voters’ VI:
Con 57%
Lab 27%
Ref 8%
Grn 2%
LD 2%
oth 3%
2019 Liberal Democrat voters’ VI:
Lab 57%
LD 35%
Grn 5%
SNP 2%
Con 1%
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/oct/03/truss-expected-to-abandon-plan-to-abolish-45-top-rate-of-income-tax-live?page=with:block-633ad0f78f0883d28b586ef3#block-633ad0f78f0883d28b586ef3
One veteran Tory MP reports that a younger colleague “rang me and said: ‘What should we do?’ I replied: ‘Prepare for opposition.’’ The financial earthquakes triggered by the Truss regime have been accompanied by what feels like a major shift in the tectonic plates of politics.
This reversal in fortunes is explained by a reversal of roles. When they were last asked to choose a government, most voters regarded Labour as a crazy party that they simply could not trust with office. They recoiled from what they saw as an alarming outfit run by ideological fanatics and consigned Labour to a defeat so bad that its parliamentary representation was crushed to its lowest level since 1935.
I can’t see Truss recovering from this and Kwarteng has blown his credibility,” says one former Tory cabinet minister. “Credibility is like virginity. Once you’ve lost it, you can’t get it back.” Many Tory MPs think their reputation as the party of economic competence, never truly deserved in the first place, has been fatally trashed. But as zealots are wont to do, Ms Truss and her chancellor blame everyone but themselves. And as zealots are also wont to do, they are refusing to compromise with reality.
“We’re going to go down in flames,” says one of the many Tories in whom anger rubs shoulders with despair. The more certain it seems that the Tories will be shown the door, the more desperate, divided and deranged they will become. Some of them have already concluded that it would be better for both their party and the country if they were removed from power. Britain is getting moving. Running for its life from the Conservatives.
Must be Monday.
https://twitter.com/queerlyautistic/status/1576280262199369728?s=46&t=g1OgyLX7Rm8sHMXVDVtm8w
A cloud over Poland is not a direct attack on NATO enough to likely lead NATO to war, likely nuclear war with Russia, only invasion or a direct attack on a NATO state is. Ukraine is not in NATO.
If it gets to that point as I said get a one way ticket to Switzerland, South America or Africa
“NATO intelligence warned about a possible test of a nuclear supertorpedo by Russia - media eurointegration.com.ua/news/2022/10/3…
https://twitter.com/europeanpravda/status/1576861325921488896?s=46&t=2ZXxxv0h6dvCJ23RQMDBsw
However the result is still rubbish for the LDs. I assume (hope) that will improve with tactical voting. It was noticeable that during the Labour conference there was a huge swing away from Con all the way to Lab. If anything the LDs went slightly backwards rather than benefiting from the Tory troubles.
Russian sources on the situation in the settlements west of Svatove near the Oskil river
"Our troops are withdrawing without a fight, which is caused by the impossibility of successfully defending this vast wooded area"
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1576896784344809474
This is the area discussed. See the forest spreads in every direction!
As for the Lib Dems, I guess it's less to do with them, and more to do with the stark difference between Corbyn and Starmer if you're a Lib Dem. There's also the significant factor that even with Corbyn, lots of Lib Dem "voters" will have been tactical, and that many of the LD>Labour in the figures above will be LD when it comes to a Tory/LD ballot.
It's interesting filtering through Twitter to get a feel for what is going on. Back in summer when Ukraine was throwing away it's best troops getting mashed in Severodonetsk and Lyschansk there was incredible levels of wish fulfilment posted by pro-Ukraine sources (echoed here) about how this was all brilliant strategy to lure Russia into a trap.
Over the last month that style of posting has now infected pro-Russian sources tenfold where every Ukrainian success is actually all part of the Putin master plan and the secret wonder strategy is about to be revealed which will take Odessa in days. This convoy being blatted is the high point of Russian twitter after a barren 2 months and they will feast on it for a week.
Where Truss is a Thatcher wannabe, Badenoch is much more the genuine article but in a new context.
C4 sale was pointless, online safety was implemented in a way that would throttle any UK local internet company in the crib, further entrenching the internet giants at the expense of any possible future competitors. Meanwhile the BBC is going to have to be reformed somehow in the light of streaming / internet revolution, but there was no sign that the government was willing to actually engage with reality here either.
https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1576685592859271168
From 2011:
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/nuclear-war-global-warming_n_828496
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/06/russia-ukraine-nuclear-weapon-us-response/661315/
It has this paragraph, which now feels unnervingly prescient
“ Sagan concedes that if Russia were to lose major battles in the Donbas, or if a Ukrainian counteroffensive seemed on the verge of a great victory, Putin might well order the use of a nuclear weapon to obtain a surrender or a cease-fire.”
There is no great love for her "out there" in Cons membership land.
This means she is more vulnerable especially because if Boris were still leader and had introduced precisely the same mini-budget then the Cons would be 10pts ahead in the polls.
Or at least I think that's how the Boris fanclub sees things.
You may ask yourself why, and the answers are obvious despite their having been around for a fair few years:
They don't work very well.
Russia's test of a nuclear-powered missile a few years back did not go swimmingly:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nyonoksa_radiation_accident
Is the Manhattan Project the only time a 'wonder weapon' has actually unequivocally ended a war?
It is clear that Russia no longer has anything like the number of warheads that the were thought to possess, and while NATO will clearly not want to take a nuclear risk, there is a possibility that Russia would not want to take the risk either since it would probably involve the complete destruction of the Russian armed forces by NATO and quite likely sufficient counter strikes to eliminate the Russian nuclear forces too.
Meanwhile the defeat at Lyman is now looking like a turning point. Russian casualties were extremely high, to the point that there are no reserves to plug the holes in the Russian lines, and a disorderly retreat is now becoming a rout. After Savatove and Kreminna, we could be looking at the collapse of the whole North Luhansk front. Meanwhile Russian sources have confirmed a major Ukrainian breakthrough close to Kherson, where about 25,000 Russian troops are trapped. If Kherson falls, there is basically nothing between the Ukrainians and Crimea.
So from the Russian point of view, there is no good news. The army is in an increasingly bad way, and there is no game changer in sight. Few governments survive such a self-inflicted disaster and the regime is now under increasingly severe strain. There is an Indian summer in Ukraine at the moment, but when the cold finally comes, the view here is that the ill equipped Russian forces will face a logistics collapse that will seal their fate.
I have already spent those income tax cuts.
One of the things that have made me confident that Truss won't last a year is that she only has 50 MPs who backed her in the first round, the overwhelming majority of Tory MPs do not rate her.
I expect backbench rebellions on the spending cuts and not uprating benefits in line with inflation.
So, Truss is in office but not in power.
Russia has had a long history of announcing all kinds of commando comics war winning weapons and technologies and then not actually building them. Or turning out to be a lot less than claimed. All the way back to the USSR.
A favourite was the sub launched SAM - which would destroy all NATO ASW aircraft.
Which turned out to be a shoulder launched SAM which could be fired by a man on the sail, when running on the surface….
“FWIW the feeling in the Baltic is that Russia is not yet ready to go nuclear”
A brilliant contender for
LEAST REASSURING OPENING LINE TO A PB COMMENT EVER WRITTEN
Currency ?
Any of euro, dollar, sterling or Swiss franc since they're all close to the same nominal value these days
Truss is never at her best when she lightens her hair colour. If she darkens the hair a notch or two it’s game on again. She is so much more fluent and persuasive when her hair is not so light.
Political authority is a lot like virginity
one prick and it is goneonce it is gone, it is very hard to get back.Voila
A sad little factoid:
"During World War II, 1,506,000 Purple Heart medals were manufactured, many in anticipation of the estimated casualties resulting from the planned Allied invasion of Japan. By the end of the war, even accounting for medals lost, stolen, or wasted, nearly 500,000 remained. To the present date, the total combined American military casualties of the seventy years following the end of World War II—including the Korean and Vietnam Wars—have not exceeded that number. In 2000, there remained 120,000 Purple Heart medals in stock. The existing surplus allowed combat units in Iraq and Afghanistan to keep Purple Hearts on hand for immediate award to soldiers wounded in the field."
*That* was the extent of casualties the US was expecting - more casualties than have occurred in all their wars since.
https://twitter.com/mickwest/status/1576925108165218304?s=46&t=-o1LlzAPODZdbIpCh9U1Lg
Still some debate on Twitter tho
The answer is, they can’t.
The world has now got to the point where the online/offline distinction has become irrelevant. I think todays youngsters understand this. Adults over ~30ish, still don’t get it. They think of the internet as a “thing” that can be turned off. It can’t.
The laws need to be recalibrated for this new hybrid world, but I think it’s absolutely the case that government should keep us safe.
The internet is the real world. It needs to be policed.
At 'The Freedom Zone' outside Tory conference where Conservative MPs are discussing "Getting Brexit Done" and "Restoring conservatism in the Conservative Party." CPC22 https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1576905450443853825/photo/1
Have heard rumblings that Liz is not long for this world of PMness.
First, it showed the new top team as uncaring of anyone who wasn't a highly -paid banker. No improvement there, since they have been forced into a U Turn by lack of votes.
Second, it showed they were careless with public finances. But they are only 2/45 less careless now, so that doesn't help.
Finally, they've been seen to handled this incompetently, even if we can't express exactly why.
Surely there will be a bit of bounce back from the 30 point deficits, surely? But Truss and Kwateng are as doomed as characters in World War Two movies who say that tonight is their last mission before they can leave to marry their childhood sweetheart.
Nukes presently mean Russia can withdraw back to its borders and that will be it. Use them, and its over, total war that will see the aftermath genuinely be how do we define the NATO/China border.
I.e. there is not even a viable prototype yet.
Try polling that. I’d guess 90% would disagree!
Do you have a lock on your front door? Or do you leave it all upon the Government to keep you safe?
Essentially, after the second bomb, the war cabinet met. After everything - fire raids, atom bombs, Russians invading Manchuria, the war cabinet was split 3-3
Hirohito then intervened, citing the bomb. In particular the fact that the Americans had atomic bombs in production - rather just being able to make one every couple of years as some Japanese scientist had thought.
This intervention kicked off a coup attempt which foundered when the last conventional B29!raid was spotted. In the Tokyo blackout (because it was thought to be another atomic bomb raid heading for Tokyo this time) the rebels couldn’t find and destroy the recording of surrender announcement.
The Japanese peace terms that some were proposing were… interesting. One they proposed to the Soviets that they surrender, keep much of their conquests and join with the Soviets in another war with America, later. This was being read by the American cryptologists…..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_the_United_Kingdom_by_length_of_tenure
I suspect she is likely to last less time than George Canning (she has to manage another 3 months to get to that date),