The mortgage situation is what will kill this version of the Tories stone dead. Nobody under the age of 90 will be voting for them.
My mortgage is luckily a 5 year fixed but I am terrified what happens when I have to renew it. I hope I will be earning even more than I do now (which is already a good salary).
In a last flight out of Kabul situation, my daughter remortgaged on Tuesday with her current lender. 10 years fixed at 3.2%.
So, nothing on innovation and R&D, but they want productivity up. They haven't a fecking clue...
Ben Riley-Smith @benrileysmith · 5m Understand these are the eight supply side reform areas that we can expect announcements on between now and Nov23:
Biz regulation Agriculture Housing and planning Immigration Mobile and broadband Financial services Childcare Energy
It’s fair to assume something big has always been planned for Conference next week. Maybe something counterintuitive? “Childcare” is an interesting outlier.
Children will no longer be cared for so we can cut the top rate to 35%
Cheap source of food. Cuts inflation too.
Hmm. Come across the idea before. Was it in one of those mid-Atlantic compilations edited by Ms Truss and Mr K? At any rate, it was called 'A Modest Proposal for preventing the children of poor people [...] from being a burden on their parents or country, and for making them beneficial to the public.' And it has this instructive libertarian analysis:
"I am assured by our merchants, that a boy or a girl, before twelve years old, is no saleable commodity, and even when they come to this age, they will not yield above three pounds, or three pounds and half a crown at most, on the exchange; which cannot turn to account either to the parents or kingdom, the charge of nutriments and rags having been at least four times that value.
I shall now therefore humbly propose my own thoughts, which I hope will not be liable to the least objection.
I have been assured by a very knowing American of my acquaintance in London, that a young healthy child well nursed, is, at a year old, a most delicious nourishing and wholesome food, whether stewed, roasted, baked, or boiled; and I make no doubt that it will equally serve in a fricasee, or a ragoust.
I do therefore humbly offer it to publick consideration, that of the hundred and twenty thousand children, already computed, twenty thousand may be reserved for breed, whereof only one fourth part to be males; which is more than we allow to sheep, black cattle, or swine, and my reason is, that these children are seldom the fruits of marriage, a circumstance not much regarded by our savages, therefore, one male will be sufficient to serve four females. That the remaining hundred thousand may, at a year old, be offered in sale to the persons of quality and fortune, through the kingdom, always advising the mother to let them suck plentifully in the last month, so as to render them plump, and fat for a good table. A child will make two dishes at an entertainment for friends, and when the family dines alone, the fore or hind quarter will make a reasonable dish, and seasoned with a little pepper or salt, will be very good boiled on the fourth day, especially in winter.
I have reckoned upon a medium, that a child just born will weigh 12 pounds, and in a solar year, if tolerably nursed, encreaseth to 28 pounds.
I grant this food will be somewhat dear, and therefore very proper for landlords, who, as they have already devoured most of the parents, seem to have the best title to the children."
The evidence is American politicians, including the president, saying “we will end that pipeline one way or another” for the past year. And the Senate apparently suggesting it be done violently
Add to the eyebrow raising pile of coincidences the fact that the Kearsage Amphibious Assault Group (Kearsage, Ignatius, Arlington and Gunston Hall) were in the Baltic at the time. So the USN would have a lot of ASW assets active in the area and would have a very good idea of what was going on below the surface as most of the Baltic isn't that deep.
One theory on the Telegraph podcast was that sea floor mines could have been dropped by the pipeline some time ago, and set to be triggered later. You wouldn't necessarily require a submarine in the area in the hours beforehand.
This raises the possibility that mines are already in place on other pipelines.
IIRC the shallow water plus inflows of fresh water from rivers makes the Baltic challenging for ASW.
The mortgage situation is what will kill this version of the Tories stone dead. Nobody under the age of 90 will be voting for them.
My mortgage is luckily a 5 year fixed but I am terrified what happens when I have to renew it. I hope I will be earning even more than I do now (which is already a good salary).
In a last flight out of Kabul situation, my daughter remortgaged on Tuesday with her current lender. 10 years fixed at 3.2%.
Does she fully appreciate what an amazing bit of business that now looks?
Ben Riley-Smith @benrileysmith · 13m BREAKING: The Treasury rejects calls for an early OBR forecast. Statement after meeting just released repeats it’s coming on Nov23 as planned.
That'll settle the markets I'm sure
In fact, pound now trending down against the dollar having erased its gains
Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng face a “very difficult conversation” with the Office for Budget Responsibility, a senior Conservative MP said before an emergency meeting with the independent economic forecaster.
Mel Stride, chairman of the Treasury committee, said the OBR would demand a “rethink” of plans for £45 billion in debt-funded tax cuts because “this circle cannot be squared”.
So when Truss emerges and says "Nothing has changed"...
What is the possibility of the OBR actually backing the government to some extent on the £45B tax cuts, just as the Labour Party has already backed the government on a lot of the tax cut package by promising to keep it for growth too and even opposing the rises in first place?
It all depends on the spending restraint proposition. However restoring market confidence and creating public faith in austerity funding tax cuts for the rich are different cats
Spot on. Exactly my point all week. What’s caused the run on the polls and the run on the pound are two completely different beasts. But in some peoples minds the two are muddled - on this end of the stick removing Browns top rate of tax is not what sparked the markets into reacting in all the different ways it did, at other end of stick Tory, Labour, markets and OBR all agree on some of the governments measures. And in the middle of the stick, Labour and Tories (the politicians) agree with each other on the quarter trillion package to freeze bills, the OBR, economists and markets not happy with it.
On that last point many PBer call me plain wrong - if markets don’t like the bills package then why did they wait so long to react, it was all announced weeks ago? My answer is because throughout period of mourning, further details on it particularly funding mechanism were not available to react to, at wasn’t all announced weeks ago is the answer, in fact part of the the reaction now is because of remaining question marks such as OBR giving thru life costs.
So, nothing on innovation and R&D, but they want productivity up. They haven't a fecking clue...
Ben Riley-Smith @benrileysmith · 5m Understand these are the eight supply side reform areas that we can expect announcements on between now and Nov23:
Biz regulation Agriculture Housing and planning Immigration Mobile and broadband Financial services Childcare Energy
It’s fair to assume something big has always been planned for Conference next week. Maybe something counterintuitive? “Childcare” is an interesting outlier.
Truss has a bee in her bonnet about that one. Cut the staff to toddler ratio so it all becomes cheaper.
And the staff on minimum wage decide to do something else and the nurseries close.
Mobile and broadband sounds good, planning reform changes so people can't reject masts?
The work to upgrade Openreach's network to 100% fibre is already in progress so I would love to know what they are planning to do.
As for mobile the best bet there is mast sharing - planning isn't an issue even in a national park (provided you aren't building a permanent road to the mast.
As OneWeb comes on line, using it for backhaul for mobile towers to remote areas becomes possible.
Or we could simply watch the US Senate Foreign Affairs Committee openly demanding that the Nordstream pipeline be “ended permanently, not just suspended” - back in July 21
So you can either believe the evidence here in front of your eyes, or the mad theories of assorted hobos on politicalbetting.com
You’re intelligent enough not to actually believe that the US or NATO did this, so I’m guessing you’re being contrary for fun. Isn’t it getting a bit boring yet?
No. I have largely given up trying to persuade people like you
But I am still fascinated by the bizarre mindset that will not accept direct evidence
We now have the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee, the US Secretary of State, and the President of the USA all saying “we will end that pipeline permanently, one way or another” - with the clear threat of violent action...
There is no clear threat of violent action. The US has been scrupulous in avoiding any hint of direct action against Russia since the start of the invasion. That you want to infer it does not mean it was implied.
Very quiet on here about this, and buried on the bbc. Agenda? It’s not great, but it could be worse.
Feels about right. 'It could be worse' and it will be worse, sadly.'
So much worse. After the GFC bail outs the idea has taken hold that the government can magic away any problems if they want to. It then becomes a moral failure not to. If you can bail out the banks why not me?
So you pay my wages when I can’t work, you pay my heating bill when it goes up, you are responsible for my mortgage.
It’s going to take a lot of time and pain to realise that the magic money tree has been cut down and burnt to keep us warm. The markets have said enough.
We are heading back to reality, when people have to accept they are responsible for themselves. It’s going to be a hell of a detox.
Well said, we are indeed. Truss and Kwasi have the right prescription for getting us back to reality, but the country doesn't want to hear it, and it might be frankly too little, too late now.
If the country wants to live in delusion that the government can magic away all our problems, then lets give Starmer a go and see if he can do it. When he can't, maybe people will realise Truss was ahead of her time and finally pay attention to what she rightly wanted to do.
Can the Government magic away all our problems? No, but several of our current problems were created by the Government a week ago. This “right prescription” is going to cost us all (except the super-rich) more via inflation and higher borrowing costs than any savings to our tax bills. Everyone being poorer is going to hit growth.
No, the problems were already there, the Government just pulled out the rug and revealed the extend they'd been brushed under it until now.
The politics was absolutely mishandled though. The £2bn in the 45p tax change is neither here nor there, and if it attracts people to pay their tax here instead of abroad then it absolutely would be self-funding and then some, but while making economic sense it destroyed any "all in it together" narrative and allowed the media and opposition to pretend that all this was about that rounding error of a change.
So, all the traders and bankers were fooled into thinking that the problems weren’t there until Friday when the “rug” was pulled, but you knew all along? Presumably this knowledge allowed you to make a killing on the currency and gilt markets. How much did you make?
The mortgage situation is what will kill this version of the Tories stone dead. Nobody under the age of 90 will be voting for them.
My mortgage is luckily a 5 year fixed but I am terrified what happens when I have to renew it. I hope I will be earning even more than I do now (which is already a good salary).
In a last flight out of Kabul situation, my daughter remortgaged on Tuesday with her current lender. 10 years fixed at 3.2%.
Does she fully appreciate what an amazing bit of business that now looks?
Yes, especially as I have been reminding her of it every day since!
Pavel Latushka @PavelLatushka · 22h Our sources report: #Lukashenko agreed to deploy 120K soldiers 🇷🇺 during November-February. 🇧🇾 undertakes to supply 100K mobilized soldiers in addition. Lukashenko is preparing for a full-scale war. The West must issue an ultimatum he cannot refuse
The West really needs to issue Lukashenko with a bullet - and reinstate the true democratic victors. He has been an abomination within Europe. The time to allow him to stay in place has long ended.
Robbing Moscow of a route through to Kyiv again is vital.
I am not convinced Lukashenko could cope with the response of his own people, never mind the West.
If Lukashenko were to be toppled it would give rise to the potential of a domino effect spreading into Russia very similar to the late 80s. For that reason there is a part of me that hopes he really over-reaches and tips his country into revolt.
Very quiet on here about this, and buried on the bbc. Agenda? It’s not great, but it could be worse.
Feels about right. 'It could be worse' and it will be worse, sadly.'
So much worse. After the GFC bail outs the idea has taken hold that the government can magic away any problems if they want to. It then becomes a moral failure not to. If you can bail out the banks why not me?
So you pay my wages when I can’t work, you pay my heating bill when it goes up, you are responsible for my mortgage.
It’s going to take a lot of time and pain to realise that the magic money tree has been cut down and burnt to keep us warm. The markets have said enough.
We are heading back to reality, when people have to accept they are responsible for themselves. It’s going to be a hell of a detox.
Well said, we are indeed. Truss and Kwasi have the right prescription for getting us back to reality, but the country doesn't want to hear it, and it might be frankly too little, too late now.
If the country wants to live in delusion that the government can magic away all our problems, then lets give Starmer a go and see if he can do it. When he can't, maybe people will realise Truss was ahead of her time and finally pay attention to what she rightly wanted to do.
Can the Government magic away all our problems? No, but several of our current problems were created by the Government a week ago. This “right prescription” is going to cost us all (except the super-rich) more via inflation and higher borrowing costs than any savings to our tax bills. Everyone being poorer is going to hit growth.
No, the problems were already there, the Government just pulled out the rug and revealed the extend they'd been brushed under it until now.
The politics was absolutely mishandled though. The £2bn in the 45p tax change is neither here nor there, and if it attracts people to pay their tax here instead of abroad then it absolutely would be self-funding and then some, but while making economic sense it destroyed any "all in it together" narrative and allowed the media and opposition to pretend that all this was about that rounding error of a change.
So, all the traders and bankers were fooled into thinking that the problems weren’t there until Friday when the “rug” was pulled, but you knew all along? Presumably this knowledge allowed you to make a killing on the currency and gilt markets. How much did you make?
I think it fair to say that the structural issues of Qualitative Easing, the housing market and the COVID bailouts were there already.
Setting your hair on fire while swimming is gasoline is not recommended. Doing so with a flamethrower , as Truss & Co. did.....
Some people see 'Truss' as the answer to the problems facing Britain.
Previously, 'Austerity' was the answer. Then, 'Brexit' was the answer. Then, 'Boris' was the answer. Now, 'Truss' is the answer.
This type of thinking is basically a legacy of Thatcherism in the early 1980s, where a form of decisive action to resolve the problems facing Britain was taken, and with success. So there is a tendency to compare the situation facing Britain with that in 1979, and search continuously for 'another Thatcher'. This is a recurring trait of politics in Britain.
Truss exudes none of the clarity of vision and certainty that Thatcher did. She is trying, and failing miserably, to do a 'Thatcher' performance. But there is nothing substantive in it. The 'growth plan' is percieved as nothing more than a cost free fantasy based on tory fetishes which will bankrupt the country.
If Truss wanted to take the hit in popularity which she has done, she may as well have done something like slashing spending on welfare and health. Let Labour go mad and take short term enormous poll leads. But eventually, people will vote conservative, because they can see it is necessary to address the structural problems with the economy. Give people a real choice between fixing the problems, and learning the hard way.
Mobile and broadband sounds good, planning reform changes so people can't reject masts?
The work to upgrade Openreach's network to 100% fibre is already in progress so I would love to know what they are planning to do.
As for mobile the best bet there is mast sharing - planning isn't an issue even in a national park (provided you aren't building a permanent road to the mast.
There is a huge amount of work and investment deploying fibre taking place right now, the UK is one of Europe's most active countries for deploying fibre. I honestly think that as a problem it has largely been solved, and it's just a case of waiting for the completion of the work.
The UK has been steadily climbing the ranking of fibre deployment in Europe, in terms of both availability and net additions. The one weak area is adoption which is relatively low, but that will almost certainly take off as most ISPs/networks are moving to a fibre first approach for their business.
Mobile and broadband sounds good, planning reform changes so people can't reject masts?
The work to upgrade Openreach's network to 100% fibre is already in progress so I would love to know what they are planning to do.
As for mobile the best bet there is mast sharing - planning isn't an issue even in a national park (provided you aren't building a permanent road to the mast.
As OneWeb comes on line, using it for backhaul for mobile towers to remote areas becomes possible.
Not really you still need to power the masts - so you may as well connect a backhaul at the same time...
Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng face a “very difficult conversation” with the Office for Budget Responsibility, a senior Conservative MP said before an emergency meeting with the independent economic forecaster.
Mel Stride, chairman of the Treasury committee, said the OBR would demand a “rethink” of plans for £45 billion in debt-funded tax cuts because “this circle cannot be squared”.
So when Truss emerges and says "Nothing has changed"...
What is the possibility of the OBR actually backing the government to some extent on the £45B tax cuts, just as the Labour Party has already backed the government on a lot of the tax cut package by promising to keep it for growth too and even opposing the rises in first place?
I’ll say it again becuase I am a completely broken record, but in the shopping basket declined on the UK credit card was £45B of tax cuts to promote growth alongside a quarter of a trillion for a bill freeze for everyone UK economists have already called dangerously regressive and stupidly over expensive by not targeting enough - how are we so sure the OBR won’t call for the bill freeze to get a hair cut?
The bill freeze is untargetted but fairly simple to administer. If some households are getting unneeded benefits the tax system should be used for that. Again too complex to target whose taxes go up but it means those most capable of affording it are shouldering the burden of fuel bill capping.
Borrow quarter of trillion to pay back via tax and higher bills for decades, the problems that gives us with the markets, and no way of knowing who future governments tax to pay it back, progressive or regressive.
Borrowing eye watering sums to give eye watering sums to many who don’t need hand out whilst not properly targeting the money on those who definitely did… BUT - it was “fairly simple to administer” so we went with it without much further thought.
Have a think for a moment, you want to tie yourself to that position for ever?
Or we could simply watch the US Senate Foreign Affairs Committee openly demanding that the Nordstream pipeline be “ended permanently, not just suspended” - back in July 21
Or we could simply watch the US Senate Foreign Affairs Committee openly demanding that the Nordstream pipeline be “ended permanently, not just suspended” - back in July 21
So you can either believe the evidence here in front of your eyes, or the mad theories of assorted hobos on politicalbetting.com
You’re intelligent enough not to actually believe that the US or NATO did this, so I’m guessing you’re being contrary for fun. Isn’t it getting a bit boring yet?
No. I have largely given up trying to persuade people like you
But I am still fascinated by the bizarre mindset that will not accept direct evidence
We now have the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee, the US Secretary of State, and the President of the USA all saying “we will end that pipeline permanently, one way or another” - with the clear threat of violent action...
There is no clear threat of violent action. The US has been scrupulous in avoiding any hint of direct action against Russia since the start of the invasion. That you want to infer it does not mean it was implied.
Watch the clip from the Senate FA Committee, from July 2021, which I linked below
That guy - to me - clearly implies violent action, if needs be
But you just don't want to see because it troubles you too much. Whatevs
The mortgage situation is what will kill this version of the Tories stone dead. Nobody under the age of 90 will be voting for them.
My mortgage is luckily a 5 year fixed but I am terrified what happens when I have to renew it. I hope I will be earning even more than I do now (which is already a good salary).
In a last flight out of Kabul situation, my daughter remortgaged on Tuesday with her current lender. 10 years fixed at 3.2%.
Does she fully appreciate what an amazing bit of business that now looks?
Great deal!
I've got almost 6 years left (on a 10yr fix) at 2.49%. I was at the pub on Tuesday and mortgages came up in the discussion. Several people had been on short-term fixes (2yrs), needed to remortgage and were going to have to find lots of extra money. I have paid more in preceding years than them but it gave me the certainty. At the time people asked me why I was paying more than I needed. Now is the time that that question gets answered! I only wish I'd fixed for 15 or 20 years.
So, nothing on innovation and R&D, but they want productivity up. They haven't a fecking clue...
Ben Riley-Smith @benrileysmith · 5m Understand these are the eight supply side reform areas that we can expect announcements on between now and Nov23:
Biz regulation Agriculture Housing and planning Immigration Mobile and broadband Financial services Childcare Energy
It’s fair to assume something big has always been planned for Conference next week. Maybe something counterintuitive? “Childcare” is an interesting outlier.
No regulations No more food in the way of the service centres Do what you like Lots and none and Rwanda Bands no longer broad and telecoms no longer mobile Tax cuts for these absolute boys Nope Burn the dead
I know this is a well rehearsed argument and positions are fixed but; yes she does, she commands a majority in the Commons. That’s our system. Nothing else.
You are right but miss the point that Truss was elected on the 2019 manifesto. Other leaders taking over halfway through parliaments have at least paid lip service to the convention that you keep to the manifesto. It is not that Truss has no mandate to be prime minister (as you say, ours is a parliamentary system) but that she has no mandate to rip up the old manifesto.
Except that manifestos are meaningless, and have been ever since the Wheeler case.
So, nothing on innovation and R&D, but they want productivity up. They haven't a fecking clue...
Ben Riley-Smith @benrileysmith · 5m Understand these are the eight supply side reform areas that we can expect announcements on between now and Nov23:
Biz regulation Agriculture Housing and planning Immigration Mobile and broadband Financial services Childcare Energy
It’s fair to assume something big has always been planned for Conference next week. Maybe something counterintuitive? “Childcare” is an interesting outlier.
Children will no longer be cared for so we can cut the top rate to 35%
Send em down pit for thruppence an hour. Cheap energy and childcare sorted in one.
Very quiet on here about this, and buried on the bbc. Agenda? It’s not great, but it could be worse.
Feels about right. 'It could be worse' and it will be worse, sadly.'
So much worse. After the GFC bail outs the idea has taken hold that the government can magic away any problems if they want to. It then becomes a moral failure not to. If you can bail out the banks why not me?
So you pay my wages when I can’t work, you pay my heating bill when it goes up, you are responsible for my mortgage.
It’s going to take a lot of time and pain to realise that the magic money tree has been cut down and burnt to keep us warm. The markets have said enough.
We are heading back to reality, when people have to accept they are responsible for themselves. It’s going to be a hell of a detox.
Wealth David. There's a lot out there (£17tn). Needs to be taxed.
Of which 42% is pension funds...yet people squealed when I suggested a state pension clawback scheme for the wealthy. Wealth tax on houses will make next to nothing in the short to medium term as it will have to be deferrable unless you want to kick oaps, poor people and the disabled out their homes by making them sell to raise money so all people will do is not move so they dont have to pay and the more the bill mounts the more they will stick like limpets.
Just caught up with the Techne poll and like other PBers I would say it feels about right. The direction of travel is up though and I can't see that changing for the moment so the YouGov 33% will likely look less of an outlier soon.
Are we seeing the demise of a Great Party? Didn't think it would happen in my lifetime but it could happen if remedial action is not taken soon. The problem is that I can't honestly think what such action might look like.
So, nothing on innovation and R&D, but they want productivity up. They haven't a fecking clue...
Ben Riley-Smith @benrileysmith · 5m Understand these are the eight supply side reform areas that we can expect announcements on between now and Nov23:
Biz regulation Agriculture Housing and planning Immigration Mobile and broadband Financial services Childcare Energy
It’s fair to assume something big has always been planned for Conference next week. Maybe something counterintuitive? “Childcare” is an interesting outlier.
Children will no longer be cared for so we can cut the top rate to 35%
Send em down pit for thruppence an hour. Cheap energy and childcare sorted in one.
If children aren't cared for 1 parent won't be working...
WarMonitor🇺🇦 @WarMonitor3 · 1h “Units of the Russian army are withdrawing their positions in the city of Lyman in the Donetsk region and are preparing to break out of the besieged city”
So, nothing on innovation and R&D, but they want productivity up. They haven't a fecking clue...
Ben Riley-Smith @benrileysmith · 5m Understand these are the eight supply side reform areas that we can expect announcements on between now and Nov23:
Biz regulation Agriculture Housing and planning Immigration Mobile and broadband Financial services Childcare Energy
It’s fair to assume something big has always been planned for Conference next week. Maybe something counterintuitive? “Childcare” is an interesting outlier.
Children will no longer be cared for so we can cut the top rate to 35%
Send em down pit for thruppence an hour. Cheap energy and childcare sorted in one.
If children aren't cared for 1 parent won't be working...
The gangmasters can look after them. JRM wanted to go back to the 1950s. Truss is going further and taking us back to the 1850s.
Just caught up with the Techne poll and like other PBers I would say it feels about right. The direction of travel is up though and I can't see that changing for the moment so the YouGov 33% will likely look less of an outlier soon.
Are we seeing the demise of a Great Party? Didn't think it would happen in my lifetime but it could happen if remedial action is not taken soon. The problem is that I can't honestly think what such action might look like.
Suggestions (serious ones, please) anybody?
You can't help people which don't want to be helped. Until the Tory party regain some semblance of sanity there's no hope
Worth posting this just to show the scale of the problem...
Dan Bloom @danbloom1 Don’t usually do this but… my partner and I were very lucky to get our first-time buy mortgage offer in Autumn 2021, on a good rate. The monthly payment is currently about £930. If we took out the same mortgage with the same lender today, the monthly payment would be £1,700.
Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng face a “very difficult conversation” with the Office for Budget Responsibility, a senior Conservative MP said before an emergency meeting with the independent economic forecaster.
Mel Stride, chairman of the Treasury committee, said the OBR would demand a “rethink” of plans for £45 billion in debt-funded tax cuts because “this circle cannot be squared”.
So when Truss emerges and says "Nothing has changed"...
What is the possibility of the OBR actually backing the government to some extent on the £45B tax cuts, just as the Labour Party has already backed the government on a lot of the tax cut package by promising to keep it for growth too and even opposing the rises in first place?
I’ll say it again becuase I am a completely broken record, but in the shopping basket declined on the UK credit card was £45B of tax cuts to promote growth alongside a quarter of a trillion for a bill freeze for everyone UK economists have already called dangerously regressive and stupidly over expensive by not targeting enough - how are we so sure the OBR won’t call for the bill freeze to get a hair cut?
The bill freeze is untargetted but fairly simple to administer. If some households are getting unneeded benefits the tax system should be used for that. Again too complex to target whose taxes go up but it means those most capable of affording it are shouldering the burden of fuel bill capping.
Borrow quarter of trillion to pay back via tax and higher bills for decades, the problems that gives us with the markets, and no way of knowing who future governments tax to pay it back, progressive or regressive.
Borrowing eye watering sums to give eye watering sums to many who don’t need hand out whilst not properly targeting the money on those who definitely did… BUT - it was “fairly simple to administer” so we went with it without much further thought.
Have a think for a moment, you want to tie yourself to that position for ever?
No. I was suggesting the tax system be used to claw back the fuel subsidy they probably didn't need. As an alternative to making the fuel subsidy more targeted and complex.
The Guardian is reporting that five and a half thousand Russian troops are encircled in Lyman. Earlier reports only said at least a thousand.
The symbolism of such a defeat on the day Putin formally annexes the territory being regained by Ukraine is huge.
It's great that the Ukes are winning on the ground.... with one enormous caveat: the more humiliating the defeat that confronts Putin, the more likely he is to do something *drastic* to change a game that, as things stand, ends with him out of power and probably dead
Worth posting this just to show the scale of the problem...
Dan Bloom @danbloom1 Don’t usually do this but… my partner and I were very lucky to get our first-time buy mortgage offer in Autumn 2021, on a good rate. The monthly payment is currently about £930. If we took out the same mortgage with the same lender today, the monthly payment would be £1,700.
Yep, it will be mortgages which will bury the Tories once and for all.
The Guardian is reporting that five and a half thousand Russian troops are encircled in Lyman. Earlier reports only said at least a thousand.
The symbolism of such a defeat on the day Putin formally annexes the territory being regained by Ukraine is huge.
Apparently Wagner group have been innovative in their recruitment of criminals from prison.
According to reports, they are offering for a sum of money (substantial) that a criminal is recruited into Wagner Group, and then reported as killed in action.
So, nothing on innovation and R&D, but they want productivity up. They haven't a fecking clue...
Ben Riley-Smith @benrileysmith · 5m Understand these are the eight supply side reform areas that we can expect announcements on between now and Nov23:
Biz regulation Agriculture Housing and planning Immigration Mobile and broadband Financial services Childcare Energy
Nice to say words, but we need action. What is the action going to be on things like housing and planning?
And how will it not be killed off my NIMBY scum like May killing off Boris's sensible proposed reforms.
Also, how will productivity be improved by letting in yet more low skilled immigrants by extending the 'skilled' immigration list to yet more jobs. As if florists and fencers weren't low skilled enough.
The mortgage situation is what will kill this version of the Tories stone dead. Nobody under the age of 90 will be voting for them.
My mortgage is luckily a 5 year fixed but I am terrified what happens when I have to renew it. I hope I will be earning even more than I do now (which is already a good salary).
In a last flight out of Kabul situation, my daughter remortgaged on Tuesday with her current lender. 10 years fixed at 3.2%.
Does she fully appreciate what an amazing bit of business that now looks?
Great deal!
I've got almost 6 years left (on a 10yr fix) at 2.49%. I was at the pub on Tuesday and mortgages came up in the discussion. Several people had been on short-term fixes (2yrs), needed to remortgage and were going to have to find lots of extra money. I have paid more in preceding years than them but it gave me the certainty. At the time people asked me why I was paying more than I needed. Now is the time that that question gets answered! I only wish I'd fixed for 15 or 20 years.
Ive got 3 years left on a 5y fix at 1.8%. I decided to fix the mortgage in mid 2020 as I was worried about a no deal brexit leading a sovereign default/rise in interest rates so paid an early repayment fee to do so (had 1y left). It wasn't a bad decision in the end as I got the early repayment fee back through the lower interest rates.
There are some downsides to fixing for a very long time, IE early repayment penalties.
The Guardian is reporting that five and a half thousand Russian troops are encircled in Lyman. Earlier reports only said at least a thousand.
The symbolism of such a defeat on the day Putin formally annexes the territory being regained by Ukraine is huge.
Apparently Wagner group have been innovative in their recruitment of criminals from prison.
According to reports, they are offering for a sum of money (substantial) that a criminal is recruited into Wagner Group, and then reported as killed in action.
So buy your way out of jail and vanish....
And people say there's no innovation in the private sector! 😉
Just caught up with the Techne poll and like other PBers I would say it feels about right. The direction of travel is up though and I can't see that changing for the moment so the YouGov 33% will likely look less of an outlier soon.
Are we seeing the demise of a Great Party? Didn't think it would happen in my lifetime but it could happen if remedial action is not taken soon. The problem is that I can't honestly think what such action might look like.
Suggestions (serious ones, please) anybody?
We all know what the action is Peter, and we all know that we are unlikely to see it. They need to purge the simplistic, nutjob, Libertarians.
The Tory Party is like one of those unfortunate caterpillars being eaten alive from the inside by parasitic wasp larvae.
Just caught up with the Techne poll and like other PBers I would say it feels about right. The direction of travel is up though and I can't see that changing for the moment so the YouGov 33% will likely look less of an outlier soon.
Are we seeing the demise of a Great Party? Didn't think it would happen in my lifetime but it could happen if remedial action is not taken soon. The problem is that I can't honestly think what such action might look like.
Suggestions (serious ones, please) anybody?
The immediate thing I would do this week is shorten the length of the bill freeze - why does it actually have to be all up to the election, sounds like made for politics not good economics - reduce to 1 year or even 6 months initially, can extend same thing but use the time to improve it, give it a hair cut, work out how to better target it though use of variable energy price cap.
Straight away you are telling the world the plan now is not to borrow nearly as much.
Very quiet on here about this, and buried on the bbc. Agenda? It’s not great, but it could be worse.
Feels about right. 'It could be worse' and it will be worse, sadly.'
So much worse. After the GFC bail outs the idea has taken hold that the government can magic away any problems if they want to. It then becomes a moral failure not to. If you can bail out the banks why not me?
So you pay my wages when I can’t work, you pay my heating bill when it goes up, you are responsible for my mortgage.
It’s going to take a lot of time and pain to realise that the magic money tree has been cut down and burnt to keep us warm. The markets have said enough.
We are heading back to reality, when people have to accept they are responsible for themselves. It’s going to be a hell of a detox.
Well said, we are indeed. Truss and Kwasi have the right prescription for getting us back to reality, but the country doesn't want to hear it, and it might be frankly too little, too late now.
If the country wants to live in delusion that the government can magic away all our problems, then lets give Starmer a go and see if he can do it. When he can't, maybe people will realise Truss was ahead of her time and finally pay attention to what she rightly wanted to do.
And that reality is what? A bunch of tax cuts paid for by borrowing money? How is that facing up to "reality" it's more fantasy economics. Where are the spending cuts, when is the sainted NHS going to actually be forced to modernise? Where are the state pension reforms and taper for high earning retirees? Where was the NI on pension income announcement?
There was absolutely no "reality" in the Friday statement, you are seeing what you want to see, not what they actually announced which was a series of unfunded tax cuts and new spending commitments. The Truss "prescription" is no different to Corbyn, just from the other side of the political divide, Corbyn wanted to borrow hundreds of billions for nationalisation and spending, Truss is borrowing hundreds of billions for tax cuts.
I do not think Bart or myself are saying that. I certainly am not. Last Friday was deeply delusional and idiotic, done by people without even the most rudimentary understanding of economics or politics or even morality. Just beyond stupid and needing reversed. But that will not solve the problems we face.
Actually I am saying that. Cut taxes, grow the economy, and take a smaller slice of a bigger pie. Borrow for the transition, because taxes are already choking the economy and higher than they've ever been.
What spending cuts should have been announced? Other than the traditional third rail of slashing welfare for pensioners, which I agree should be done but nobody will go near, there is not much left to cut. Taxes have risen as high as they'll go, spending has been cut as far as it will go, and we're still out of money.
The only way forward is to stop strangling the economy with taxes, let it grow, and take a smaller slice.
What they did was combine tax cuts with a massive uncosted and uncostable increase in public spending subsidising fuel costs. That is nuts. In the medium term I agree that taxes on incomes have risen too high but the market made it very clear that you cannot cut taxes and increase spending at the same time.
So what can you do?
Increase taxes yet again, strangle growth even more yet again?
If fixing the fundamentals of too high taxes can't be done, what can be done, other than manage decline by taxing working people more and more and having a state that's nothing but an NHS and pension provider?
Switch taxes on earnings for taxes on assets.
The only asset it makes sense to tax is land, every other asset can be moved out of our tax jurisdiction.
If anyone proposes rebalancing taxes away from income and into land instead, then I would absolutely be prepared to vote for them. Even if its Keir Starmer. But I don't see anyone proposing that yet.
Wasn’t it the basis of the LibDems’ wealth tax proposal?
The mortgage situation is what will kill this version of the Tories stone dead. Nobody under the age of 90 will be voting for them.
My mortgage is luckily a 5 year fixed but I am terrified what happens when I have to renew it. I hope I will be earning even more than I do now (which is already a good salary).
In a last flight out of Kabul situation, my daughter remortgaged on Tuesday with her current lender. 10 years fixed at 3.2%.
Does she fully appreciate what an amazing bit of business that now looks?
Great deal!
I've got almost 6 years left (on a 10yr fix) at 2.49%. I was at the pub on Tuesday and mortgages came up in the discussion. Several people had been on short-term fixes (2yrs), needed to remortgage and were going to have to find lots of extra money. I have paid more in preceding years than them but it gave me the certainty. At the time people asked me why I was paying more than I needed. Now is the time that that question gets answered! I only wish I'd fixed for 15 or 20 years.
Ive got 3 years left on a 5y fix at 1.8%. I decided to fix the mortgage in mid 2020 as I was worried about a no deal brexit leading a sovereign default/rise in interest rates so paid an early repayment fee to do so (had 1y left). It wasn't a bad decision in the end as I got the early repayment fee back through the lower interest rates.
There are some downsides to fixing for a very long time, IE early repayment penalties.
My mortgage is just ticking over to a new deal, but I got mine fixed 6 months ago at 2.5% for 7 years.
I saw this coming, but many many people wouldn't have gotten around to it until much later. One advantage of being switched on and sniffing the wind.
I'm very very glad I did, I could have left it until now to sort out.
Very quiet on here about this, and buried on the bbc. Agenda? It’s not great, but it could be worse.
Feels about right. 'It could be worse' and it will be worse, sadly.'
So much worse. After the GFC bail outs the idea has taken hold that the government can magic away any problems if they want to. It then becomes a moral failure not to. If you can bail out the banks why not me?
So you pay my wages when I can’t work, you pay my heating bill when it goes up, you are responsible for my mortgage.
It’s going to take a lot of time and pain to realise that the magic money tree has been cut down and burnt to keep us warm. The markets have said enough.
We are heading back to reality, when people have to accept they are responsible for themselves. It’s going to be a hell of a detox.
Well said, we are indeed. Truss and Kwasi have the right prescription for getting us back to reality, but the country doesn't want to hear it, and it might be frankly too little, too late now.
If the country wants to live in delusion that the government can magic away all our problems, then lets give Starmer a go and see if he can do it. When he can't, maybe people will realise Truss was ahead of her time and finally pay attention to what she rightly wanted to do.
And that reality is what? A bunch of tax cuts paid for by borrowing money? How is that facing up to "reality" it's more fantasy economics. Where are the spending cuts, when is the sainted NHS going to actually be forced to modernise? Where are the state pension reforms and taper for high earning retirees? Where was the NI on pension income announcement?
There was absolutely no "reality" in the Friday statement, you are seeing what you want to see, not what they actually announced which was a series of unfunded tax cuts and new spending commitments. The Truss "prescription" is no different to Corbyn, just from the other side of the political divide, Corbyn wanted to borrow hundreds of billions for nationalisation and spending, Truss is borrowing hundreds of billions for tax cuts.
I do not think Bart or myself are saying that. I certainly am not. Last Friday was deeply delusional and idiotic, done by people without even the most rudimentary understanding of economics or politics or even morality. Just beyond stupid and needing reversed. But that will not solve the problems we face.
Actually I am saying that. Cut taxes, grow the economy, and take a smaller slice of a bigger pie. Borrow for the transition, because taxes are already choking the economy and higher than they've ever been.
What spending cuts should have been announced? Other than the traditional third rail of slashing welfare for pensioners, which I agree should be done but nobody will go near, there is not much left to cut. Taxes have risen as high as they'll go, spending has been cut as far as it will go, and we're still out of money.
The only way forward is to stop strangling the economy with taxes, let it grow, and take a smaller slice.
What they did was combine tax cuts with a massive uncosted and uncostable increase in public spending subsidising fuel costs. That is nuts. In the medium term I agree that taxes on incomes have risen too high but the market made it very clear that you cannot cut taxes and increase spending at the same time.
So what can you do?
Increase taxes yet again, strangle growth even more yet again?
If fixing the fundamentals of too high taxes can't be done, what can be done, other than manage decline by taxing working people more and more and having a state that's nothing but an NHS and pension provider?
Switch taxes on earnings for taxes on assets.
The only asset it makes sense to tax is land, every other asset can be moved out of our tax jurisdiction.
If anyone proposes rebalancing taxes away from income and into land instead, then I would absolutely be prepared to vote for them. Even if its Keir Starmer. But I don't see anyone proposing that yet.
Wasn’t it the basis of the LibDems’ wealth tax proposal?
The Lib Dems have some good ideas when they're actually being liberal and not SDP.
If the Tories turn against libertarianism when they lose the next election and turn towards authoritarianism instead, then I'll probably become a Lib Dem.
Worth posting this just to show the scale of the problem...
Dan Bloom @danbloom1 Don’t usually do this but… my partner and I were very lucky to get our first-time buy mortgage offer in Autumn 2021, on a good rate. The monthly payment is currently about £930. If we took out the same mortgage with the same lender today, the monthly payment would be £1,700.
Yep, it will be mortgages which will bury the Tories once and for all.
And I can't see anything they can do about it.
Events may help them, end of the war in Ukraine is possible in the next few months but more likely is a massive decline in inflation, I will be surprised if inflation is above 4% in a years time.
Democratic candidate John Fetterman’s lead over Republican Mehmet Oz is narrowing in Pennsylvania’s Senate race, according to a new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey released Friday.
The survey found that 45 percent of likely Pennsylvania general election voters backed Fetterman while 43 percent supported Oz, falling within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.
The Next Labour Government will be two or three terms at the least. The Tories aren't getting back in for a long time.
I said to my wife last night that I am not sure we will see another Tory government. We are in our early 60s. Truss and Kwarteng have really screwed the pooch.
Worth posting this just to show the scale of the problem...
Dan Bloom @danbloom1 Don’t usually do this but… my partner and I were very lucky to get our first-time buy mortgage offer in Autumn 2021, on a good rate. The monthly payment is currently about £930. If we took out the same mortgage with the same lender today, the monthly payment would be £1,700.
The inevitable consequences of these rates is negative equity ( last time lasting 10 years) and falling house prices which of course to many would be a good thing
There will be winners and losers but this is a long term issue
Worth posting this just to show the scale of the problem...
Dan Bloom @danbloom1 Don’t usually do this but… my partner and I were very lucky to get our first-time buy mortgage offer in Autumn 2021, on a good rate. The monthly payment is currently about £930. If we took out the same mortgage with the same lender today, the monthly payment would be £1,700.
Yep, it will be mortgages which will bury the Tories once and for all.
And I can't see anything they can do about it.
Events may help them, end of the war in Ukraine is possible in the next few months but more likely is a massive decline in inflation, I will be surprised if inflation is above 4% in a years time.
So, nothing on innovation and R&D, but they want productivity up. They haven't a fecking clue...
Ben Riley-Smith @benrileysmith · 5m Understand these are the eight supply side reform areas that we can expect announcements on between now and Nov23:
Biz regulation Agriculture Housing and planning Immigration Mobile and broadband Financial services Childcare Energy
Nice to say words, but we need action. What is the action going to be on things like housing and planning?
And how will it not be killed off my NIMBY scum like May killing off Boris's sensible proposed reforms.
At the moment NIMBY pensioners are the only age group still loyal to Truss.
Lose them too and the Truss core vote would be reduced to rich bankers and developers and that would be it
Not sure there's all that much support amongst rich bankers and develops, Hyufd. They are mostly smart people, and can see the long-term downside of what is going on. Many have a social conscience too.
I actually think the core Tory vote will soon be down to fuckwits and Daily Mail readers, (two groups which are of course not mutually exclusive.)
Worth posting this just to show the scale of the problem...
Dan Bloom @danbloom1 Don’t usually do this but… my partner and I were very lucky to get our first-time buy mortgage offer in Autumn 2021, on a good rate. The monthly payment is currently about £930. If we took out the same mortgage with the same lender today, the monthly payment would be £1,700.
I can’t make the maths work on that, looking at where the market is. I think it’s bollocks.
Graham is for once on the side of the angels here. Russia needs to know that using a nuclear weapon means all out MAD destruction of Russia. Total and utter annihilation.
And every soldier in the chain of command needs to know its suicide if they follow that order too.
Just caught up with the Techne poll and like other PBers I would say it feels about right. The direction of travel is up though and I can't see that changing for the moment so the YouGov 33% will likely look less of an outlier soon.
Are we seeing the demise of a Great Party? Didn't think it would happen in my lifetime but it could happen if remedial action is not taken soon. The problem is that I can't honestly think what such action might look like.
Suggestions (serious ones, please) anybody?
One of the things that is so remarkable about the current situation is that it has come about within the first month of her leadership. Normally the popularity of a leader erodes over time, and that makes it easier to contemplate getting rid of them, because no-one goes on for ever anyway.
This means I have no basis on which to make a prediction.
Having said that, all the logic points to savage cuts in public spending to reassure the markets. That should work, but will come at a political cost.
The Tories were able to win the 2015GE, after austerity, because they'd won the political argument that it was necessary. This crisis has been initiated by a political choice to cut taxes, and so that political argument has been lost, before it was even fought.
They're seriously screwed. The trust has gone and that isn't repaired easily or quickly.
Worth posting this just to show the scale of the problem...
Dan Bloom @danbloom1 Don’t usually do this but… my partner and I were very lucky to get our first-time buy mortgage offer in Autumn 2021, on a good rate. The monthly payment is currently about £930. If we took out the same mortgage with the same lender today, the monthly payment would be £1,700.
I can’t make the maths work on that, looking at where the market is. I think it’s bollocks.
Autumn 2021 - it was possible to get a 5 year fixed at below 1% from the Nationwide.
So it's quite possibly an extreme example but it isn't bollox...
Worth posting this just to show the scale of the problem...
Dan Bloom @danbloom1 Don’t usually do this but… my partner and I were very lucky to get our first-time buy mortgage offer in Autumn 2021, on a good rate. The monthly payment is currently about £930. If we took out the same mortgage with the same lender today, the monthly payment would be £1,700.
I can’t make the maths work on that, looking at where the market is. I think it’s bollocks.
Probably comparing the short fix of his old deal with the SVR of the new deal. Maybe his provider has no fixes at the moment, so he’s calling the variable one the “same mortgage”.
Careful about this. Lindsey Graham is a Republican Senator, right? He isn't speaking for NATO. It is like one of these Russian 'politicians' that call for the invasion of Poland or to encourage the use of battlefield nukes.
No. Looks like a death by dangerous driving whilst unfit to me. Can’t see it’s murder unless they finished him off after they hit him.
The BBC article I read suggested they hid him under a tarp in the woods, and came back later to bury him. If they can show he wasn’t dead when they left him under the tarp…
So, nothing on innovation and R&D, but they want productivity up. They haven't a fecking clue...
Ben Riley-Smith @benrileysmith · 5m Understand these are the eight supply side reform areas that we can expect announcements on between now and Nov23:
Biz regulation Agriculture Housing and planning Immigration Mobile and broadband Financial services Childcare Energy
Nice to say words, but we need action. What is the action going to be on things like housing and planning?
And how will it not be killed off my NIMBY scum like May killing off Boris's sensible proposed reforms.
At the moment NIMBY pensioners are the only age group still loyal to Truss.
Lose them too and the Truss core vote would be reduced to rich bankers and developers and that would be it
Not sure there's all that much support amongst rich bankers and develops, Hyufd. They are mostly smart people, and can see the long-term downside of what is going on. Many have a social conscience too.
I actually think the core Tory vote will soon be down to fuckwits and Daily Mail readers, (two groups which are of course not mutually exclusive.)
And still make up at least 30% of the population, hence the floor in Tory vote share!
Democratic candidate John Fetterman’s lead over Republican Mehmet Oz is narrowing in Pennsylvania’s Senate race, according to a new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey released Friday.
The survey found that 45 percent of likely Pennsylvania general election voters backed Fetterman while 43 percent supported Oz, falling within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.
The Hill
Truss provoking a market wobble may just cost the Dems too.
The scale of these WW2 battles is still staggering. At Stalingrad the Germans fielded 1 million men, the Soviets 1.1 million
Ukraine is like a polite sideshow in comparison, in terms of sheer numbers
So was the African campaign and even D day. WW 2 was fought between the Soviet Union and Germany in Europe and the US and Japan in the Pacific. We helped.
Simon Kuper @KuperSimon · 20h From @MoscowTimes , in Russian: all men in Moscow up to age 35 are going to have to register. Very risky of Putin to take on the capital, and not just poor distant regions with ethnic-minority populations
Worth posting this just to show the scale of the problem...
Dan Bloom @danbloom1 Don’t usually do this but… my partner and I were very lucky to get our first-time buy mortgage offer in Autumn 2021, on a good rate. The monthly payment is currently about £930. If we took out the same mortgage with the same lender today, the monthly payment would be £1,700.
Because rates were artificially low for so long, people started to treat it as normal and stopped thinking properly about the financial risks they were taking.
In terms of whether this might see the end of the Tories as a great party, I don't see that at the moment. Our last big change of party came about because of the combination of the growth of a new party and the decline of an old one. There isn't a party ready to replace the Tories.
The Lib Dem polling average is down at about 10%, no other British party is really going anywhere. The Labour government will require an opposition, and that opposition will be the Tories.
So, nothing on innovation and R&D, but they want productivity up. They haven't a fecking clue...
Ben Riley-Smith @benrileysmith · 5m Understand these are the eight supply side reform areas that we can expect announcements on between now and Nov23:
Biz regulation Agriculture Housing and planning Immigration Mobile and broadband Financial services Childcare Energy
Nice to say words, but we need action. What is the action going to be on things like housing and planning?
And how will it not be killed off my NIMBY scum like May killing off Boris's sensible proposed reforms.
At the moment NIMBY pensioners are the only age group still loyal to Truss.
Lose them too and the Truss core vote would be reduced to rich bankers and developers and that would be it
Not sure there's all that much support amongst rich bankers and develops, Hyufd. They are mostly smart people, and can see the long-term downside of what is going on. Many have a social conscience too.
I actually think the core Tory vote will soon be down to fuckwits and Daily Mail readers, (two groups which are of course not mutually exclusive.)
Except most Daily Mail readers are NIMBYs, lose them and there is no core left
Very quiet on here about this, and buried on the bbc. Agenda? It’s not great, but it could be worse.
Feels about right. 'It could be worse' and it will be worse, sadly.'
So much worse. After the GFC bail outs the idea has taken hold that the government can magic away any problems if they want to. It then becomes a moral failure not to. If you can bail out the banks why not me?
So you pay my wages when I can’t work, you pay my heating bill when it goes up, you are responsible for my mortgage.
It’s going to take a lot of time and pain to realise that the magic money tree has been cut down and burnt to keep us warm. The markets have said enough.
We are heading back to reality, when people have to accept they are responsible for themselves. It’s going to be a hell of a detox.
Well said, we are indeed. Truss and Kwasi have the right prescription for getting us back to reality, but the country doesn't want to hear it, and it might be frankly too little, too late now.
If the country wants to live in delusion that the government can magic away all our problems, then lets give Starmer a go and see if he can do it. When he can't, maybe people will realise Truss was ahead of her time and finally pay attention to what she rightly wanted to do.
And that reality is what? A bunch of tax cuts paid for by borrowing money? How is that facing up to "reality" it's more fantasy economics. Where are the spending cuts, when is the sainted NHS going to actually be forced to modernise? Where are the state pension reforms and taper for high earning retirees? Where was the NI on pension income announcement?
There was absolutely no "reality" in the Friday statement, you are seeing what you want to see, not what they actually announced which was a series of unfunded tax cuts and new spending commitments. The Truss "prescription" is no different to Corbyn, just from the other side of the political divide, Corbyn wanted to borrow hundreds of billions for nationalisation and spending, Truss is borrowing hundreds of billions for tax cuts.
I do not think Bart or myself are saying that. I certainly am not. Last Friday was deeply delusional and idiotic, done by people without even the most rudimentary understanding of economics or politics or even morality. Just beyond stupid and needing reversed. But that will not solve the problems we face.
Actually I am saying that. Cut taxes, grow the economy, and take a smaller slice of a bigger pie. Borrow for the transition, because taxes are already choking the economy and higher than they've ever been.
What spending cuts should have been announced? Other than the traditional third rail of slashing welfare for pensioners, which I agree should be done but nobody will go near, there is not much left to cut. Taxes have risen as high as they'll go, spending has been cut as far as it will go, and we're still out of money.
The only way forward is to stop strangling the economy with taxes, let it grow, and take a smaller slice.
What they did was combine tax cuts with a massive uncosted and uncostable increase in public spending subsidising fuel costs. That is nuts. In the medium term I agree that taxes on incomes have risen too high but the market made it very clear that you cannot cut taxes and increase spending at the same time.
So what can you do?
Increase taxes yet again, strangle growth even more yet again?
If fixing the fundamentals of too high taxes can't be done, what can be done, other than manage decline by taxing working people more and more and having a state that's nothing but an NHS and pension provider?
Switch taxes on earnings for taxes on assets.
The only asset it makes sense to tax is land, every other asset can be moved out of our tax jurisdiction.
If anyone proposes rebalancing taxes away from income and into land instead, then I would absolutely be prepared to vote for them. Even if its Keir Starmer. But I don't see anyone proposing that yet.
Wasn’t it the basis of the LibDems’ wealth tax proposal?
The Lib Dems have some good ideas when they're actually being liberal and not SDP.
If the Tories turn against libertarianism when they lose the next election and turn towards authoritarianism instead, then I'll probably become a Lib Dem.
The sad irony of political history, is that Orange Book Lib Dems had the policies that about 60%+ of the voters would have agreed with. But tribalism in politics trumped policies.....
Worth posting this just to show the scale of the problem...
Dan Bloom @danbloom1 Don’t usually do this but… my partner and I were very lucky to get our first-time buy mortgage offer in Autumn 2021, on a good rate. The monthly payment is currently about £930. If we took out the same mortgage with the same lender today, the monthly payment would be £1,700.
Because rates were artificially low for so long, people started to treat it as normal and stop thinking properly about the financial risks they were taking.
Yep - 10+ years of artificially low rates made borrowing 5 times earnings look plausible because at low interest rates you could afford to pay it back...
Graham is for once on the side of the angels here. Russia needs to know that using a nuclear weapon means all out MAD destruction of Russia. Total and utter annihilation.
And every soldier in the chain of command needs to know its suicide if they follow that order too.
There is a NATO presser at 7pm. I wonder if it will say the same?
Or maybe that the quality and quantity of weapons is about to be massively upgraded. Everything short of nukes.
So, nothing on innovation and R&D, but they want productivity up. They haven't a fecking clue...
Ben Riley-Smith @benrileysmith · 5m Understand these are the eight supply side reform areas that we can expect announcements on between now and Nov23:
Biz regulation Agriculture Housing and planning Immigration Mobile and broadband Financial services Childcare Energy
Nice to say words, but we need action. What is the action going to be on things like housing and planning?
And how will it not be killed off my NIMBY scum like May killing off Boris's sensible proposed reforms.
At the moment NIMBY pensioners are the only age group still loyal to Truss.
Lose them too and the Truss core vote would be reduced to rich bankers and developers and that would be it
Given that Truss and Kwarteng’s announcement could have been made by a Farage led party, is there any reason for the rich bankers and developers not to switch to the Brexit party?
Worth posting this just to show the scale of the problem...
Dan Bloom @danbloom1 Don’t usually do this but… my partner and I were very lucky to get our first-time buy mortgage offer in Autumn 2021, on a good rate. The monthly payment is currently about £930. If we took out the same mortgage with the same lender today, the monthly payment would be £1,700.
I can’t make the maths work on that, looking at where the market is. I think it’s bollocks.
It may be slightly on the low side. Mortgage rates have risen from roughly 2.5 to 5 in that time, depending on fees and introductory offers.
Why would an opposition senator be deciding NATO policy?
I doubt he is going particularly off-piste here? Surely he has squared this with the White House. It is far too important for fucking about. If he is speaking for himself, it is damned stupid
Comments
'Tony Parsons’ body was discovered at a farm near Bridge of Orchy in January 2021, more than three years after he disappeared'
https://road.cc/content/news/twins-murder-cyclist-after-hitting-him-car-296243
"I am assured by our merchants, that a boy or a girl, before twelve years old, is no saleable commodity, and even when they come to this age, they will not yield above three pounds, or three pounds and half a crown at most, on the exchange; which cannot turn to account either to the parents or kingdom, the charge of nutriments and rags having been at least four times that value.
I shall now therefore humbly propose my own thoughts, which I hope will not be liable to the least objection.
I have been assured by a very knowing American of my acquaintance in London, that a young healthy child well nursed, is, at a year old, a most delicious nourishing and wholesome food, whether stewed, roasted, baked, or boiled; and I make no doubt that it will equally serve in a fricasee, or a ragoust.
I do therefore humbly offer it to publick consideration, that of the hundred and twenty thousand children, already computed, twenty thousand may be reserved for breed, whereof only one fourth part to be males; which is more than we allow to sheep, black cattle, or swine, and my reason is, that these children are seldom the fruits of marriage, a circumstance not much regarded by our savages, therefore, one male will be sufficient to serve four females. That the remaining hundred thousand may, at a year old, be offered in sale to the persons of quality and fortune, through the kingdom, always advising the mother to let them suck plentifully in the last month, so as to render them plump, and fat for a good table. A child will make two dishes at an entertainment for friends, and when the family dines alone, the fore or hind quarter will make a reasonable dish, and seasoned with a little pepper or salt, will be very good boiled on the fourth day, especially in winter.
I have reckoned upon a medium, that a child just born will weigh 12 pounds, and in a solar year, if tolerably nursed, encreaseth to 28 pounds.
I grant this food will be somewhat dear, and therefore very proper for landlords, who, as they have already devoured most of the parents, seem to have the best title to the children."
Hmmm
On that last point many PBer call me plain wrong - if markets don’t like the bills package then why did they wait so long to react, it was all announced weeks ago? My answer is because throughout period of mourning, further details on it particularly funding mechanism were not available to react to, at wasn’t all announced weeks ago is the answer, in fact part of the the reaction now is because of remaining question marks such as OBR giving thru life costs.
The US has been scrupulous in avoiding any hint of direct action against Russia since the start of the invasion. That you want to infer it does not mean it was implied.
Setting your hair on fire while swimming is gasoline is not recommended. Doing so with a flamethrower , as Truss & Co. did.....
Previously, 'Austerity' was the answer.
Then, 'Brexit' was the answer.
Then, 'Boris' was the answer.
Now, 'Truss' is the answer.
This type of thinking is basically a legacy of Thatcherism in the early 1980s, where a form of decisive action to resolve the problems facing Britain was taken, and with success. So there is a tendency to compare the situation facing Britain with that in 1979, and search continuously for 'another Thatcher'. This is a recurring trait of politics in Britain.
Truss exudes none of the clarity of vision and certainty that Thatcher did. She is trying, and failing miserably, to do a 'Thatcher' performance. But there is nothing substantive in it. The 'growth plan' is percieved as nothing more than a cost free fantasy based on tory fetishes which will bankrupt the country.
If Truss wanted to take the hit in popularity which she has done, she may as well have done something like slashing spending on welfare and health. Let Labour go mad and take short term enormous poll leads. But eventually, people will vote conservative, because they can see it is necessary to address the structural problems with the economy. Give people a real choice between fixing the problems, and learning the hard way.
The UK has been steadily climbing the ranking of fibre deployment in Europe, in terms of both availability and net additions. The one weak area is adoption which is relatively low, but that will almost certainly take off as most ISPs/networks are moving to a fibre first approach for their business.
Borrowing eye watering sums to give eye watering sums to many who don’t need hand out whilst not properly targeting the money on those who definitely did… BUT - it was “fairly simple to administer” so we went with it without much further thought.
Have a think for a moment, you want to tie yourself to that position for ever?
CEBR claims treasury is hugely wrong and we’re heading for a small surplus by 2025/26. Someone is going to have egg on their faces either way.
That guy - to me - clearly implies violent action, if needs be
But you just don't want to see because it troubles you too much. Whatevs
I've got almost 6 years left (on a 10yr fix) at 2.49%. I was at the pub on Tuesday and mortgages came up in the discussion. Several people had been on short-term fixes (2yrs), needed to remortgage and were going to have to find lots of extra money. I have paid more in preceding years than them but it gave me the certainty. At the time people asked me why I was paying more than I needed. Now is the time that that question gets answered! I only wish I'd fixed for 15 or 20 years.
Are we seeing the demise of a Great Party? Didn't think it would happen in my lifetime but it could happen if remedial action is not taken soon. The problem is that I can't honestly think what such action might look like.
Suggestions (serious ones, please) anybody?
The symbolism of such a defeat on the day Putin formally annexes the territory being regained by Ukraine is huge.
Lose them too and the Truss core vote would be reduced to rich bankers and developers and that would be it
WarMonitor🇺🇦
@WarMonitor3
·
1h
“Units of the Russian army are withdrawing their positions in the city of Lyman in the Donetsk region and are preparing to break out of the besieged city”
Dan Bloom
@danbloom1
Don’t usually do this but… my partner and I were very lucky to get our first-time buy mortgage offer in Autumn 2021, on a good rate. The monthly payment is currently about £930. If we took out the same mortgage with the same lender today, the monthly payment would be £1,700.
BRACE
⚡️ A nuclear attack on Ukraine will be considered an attack on NATO, - US Senator Lindsey Graham
https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1575799900960624642?s=20&t=3gBiXrZrwRFTh8K40LXS1w
And I can't see anything they can do about it.
According to reports, they are offering for a sum of money (substantial) that a criminal is recruited into Wagner Group, and then reported as killed in action.
So buy your way out of jail and vanish....
I decided to fix the mortgage in mid 2020 as I was worried about a no deal brexit leading a sovereign default/rise in interest rates so paid an early repayment fee to do so (had 1y left).
It wasn't a bad decision in the end as I got the early repayment fee back through the lower interest rates.
There are some downsides to fixing for a very long time, IE early repayment penalties.
Reminds me of this where Hitler wouldn't let his forces retreat:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falaise_pocket
The Tory Party is like one of those unfortunate caterpillars being eaten alive from the inside by parasitic wasp larvae.
Straight away you are telling the world the plan now is not to borrow nearly as much.
I saw this coming, but many many people wouldn't have gotten around to it until much later. One advantage of being switched on and sniffing the wind.
I'm very very glad I did, I could have left it until now to sort out.
If the Tories turn against libertarianism when they lose the next election and turn towards authoritarianism instead, then I'll probably become a Lib Dem.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Uranus
The scale of these WW2 battles is still staggering. At Stalingrad the Germans fielded 1 million men, the Soviets 1.1 million
Ukraine is like a polite sideshow in comparison, in terms of sheer numbers
The survey found that 45 percent of likely Pennsylvania general election voters backed Fetterman while 43 percent supported Oz, falling within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.
The Hill
From the Chicago Sun-Times.
There will be winners and losers but this is a long term issue
I actually think the core Tory vote will soon be down to fuckwits and Daily Mail readers, (two groups which are of course not mutually exclusive.)
Graham is for once on the side of the angels here. Russia needs to know that using a nuclear weapon means all out MAD destruction of Russia. Total and utter annihilation.
And every soldier in the chain of command needs to know its suicide if they follow that order too.
This means I have no basis on which to make a prediction.
Having said that, all the logic points to savage cuts in public spending to reassure the markets. That should work, but will come at a political cost.
The Tories were able to win the 2015GE, after austerity, because they'd won the political argument that it was necessary. This crisis has been initiated by a political choice to cut taxes, and so that political argument has been lost, before it was even fought.
They're seriously screwed. The trust has gone and that isn't repaired easily or quickly.
So it's quite possibly an extreme example but it isn't bollox...
Lindsey Graham is a Republican Senator, right?
He isn't speaking for NATO.
It is like one of these Russian 'politicians' that call for the invasion of Poland or to encourage the use of battlefield nukes.
Which also means he has broken rule 1 of Eurasian war:
Never Invade Russia
@KuperSimon
·
20h
From
@MoscowTimes
, in Russian: all men in Moscow up to age 35 are going to have to register. Very risky of Putin to take on the capital, and not just poor distant regions with ethnic-minority populations
https://twitter.com/KuperSimon/status/1575499891715018752
The Lib Dem polling average is down at about 10%, no other British party is really going anywhere. The Labour government will require an opposition, and that opposition will be the Tories.
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 50% (+10)
CON: 20% (-8)
LDM: 9% (-1)
GRN: 8% (=)
SNP: 5% (-1)
Via
@PeoplePolling
, 29 Sep.
Changes w/ 21 Sep.
The hits keep on coming....
Feels like a criminal should be kind of allowed to attempt to defeat the ends of justice......as long as not through intimidation, bribery or similar.
Or maybe that the quality and quantity of weapons is about to be massively upgraded. Everything short of nukes.
1) Never fight a land war in Asia.
2) Never go against a Sicilian when death is on the line.
3) Never spit on the table in front of Elon Musk.