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A LAB majority becomes the election betting favourite – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited October 9 in General
imageA LAB majority becomes the election betting favourite – politicalbetting.com

As can be seen from the betting chart Labour has never been favourite to have a majority at the next general election. We are in very new territory here. This comes after my post yesterday afternoon suggesting that this looked a value bet and one that I didn’t place!

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,451
    First. Like SKS will be.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,322
    edited September 30
    2nd like the LDs (Hoping for lots of MPs in the Tory wipeout)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,736
    Just how dim is Liz Truss?

    'Through the energy price guarantee the maximum [energy bill] will be £2,500'
    The prime minister incorrectly told more than one station that there would be a maximum energy bill of £2,500 after the energy price cap is lifted on 1 October.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/63075931
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    edited September 30
    3rd like the SNP.

    Edit - bollocks, fourth like their fellow crazed nationalists.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,322

    Just how dim is Liz Truss?

    'Through the energy price guarantee the maximum [energy bill] will be £2,500'
    The prime minister incorrectly told more than one station that there would be a maximum energy bill of £2,500 after the energy price cap is lifted on 1 October.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/63075931

    That will be coming back to haunt her next week
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,736
    FPT:

    As I predicted…
    https://bbc.co.uk/news/business-63086562

    Very quiet on here about this, and buried on the bbc. Agenda?
    It’s not great, but it could be worse.

    Feels about right. 'It could be worse' and it will be worse, sadly.'

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855

    Just how dim is Liz Truss?

    'Through the energy price guarantee the maximum [energy bill] will be £2,500'
    The prime minister incorrectly told more than one station that there would be a maximum energy bill of £2,500 after the energy price cap is lifted on 1 October.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/63075931

    As dim as a 3 watt lightbulb.

    This is less dim than it used to be, of course.

    I blame grade inflation.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,226
    What seems likely is that departmental budgets will be frozen at the same cash level — a fairly significant real-terms cut given inflation. This may well be done for the next five years.

    There are several risks. First, how possible is it in reality? Could you really hold down the NHS budget like this? David Cameron and George Osborne believed it was politically vital to exclude the health service from austerity. The political danger is that if you freeze the health budget, every problem the NHS experiences this winter (expected long before Truss entered No 10) and next year gets blamed on the Tories starving it of cash. The risk of the NHS falling over is perhaps even more dangerous to the government than the reaction to the mini-budget.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/for-unbowed-truss-theres-no-easy-way-out-d0g282dth
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,226
    🏡 Incoming housing market crash?

    Nationwide Building Society: “The start of a prolonged fall in house prices”

    “the staggering jump in mortgage rates finally is starting to weigh on buyer demand”

    “The outlook is even gloomier, due to a further jump in mortgage rates”


    https://twitter.com/SkyScottBeasley/status/1575743080279724032
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,736
    edited September 30

    Just how dim is Liz Truss?

    'Through the energy price guarantee the maximum [energy bill] will be £2,500'
    The prime minister incorrectly told more than one station that there would be a maximum energy bill of £2,500 after the energy price cap is lifted on 1 October.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/63075931

    That will be coming back to haunt her next week
    I reckon ours will be c. £4,000 (no gas; all-electric). That's 300% up on two years ago.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328
    Well thank goodness for that Mike given the fate of your bet on a Tory lead by today! You may have given the dead men walking some hope.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    Scott_xP said:

    What seems likely is that departmental budgets will be frozen at the same cash level — a fairly significant real-terms cut given inflation. This may well be done for the next five years.

    There are several risks. First, how possible is it in reality? Could you really hold down the NHS budget like this? David Cameron and George Osborne believed it was politically vital to exclude the health service from austerity. The political danger is that if you freeze the health budget, every problem the NHS experiences this winter (expected long before Truss entered No 10) and next year gets blamed on the Tories starving it of cash. The risk of the NHS falling over is perhaps even more dangerous to the government than the reaction to the mini-budget.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/for-unbowed-truss-theres-no-easy-way-out-d0g282dth

    Also more than a slight problem in education, given they've substantially jacked up costs already while only increasing funding by 1%.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,736
    ydoethur said:

    Just how dim is Liz Truss?

    'Through the energy price guarantee the maximum [energy bill] will be £2,500'
    The prime minister incorrectly told more than one station that there would be a maximum energy bill of £2,500 after the energy price cap is lifted on 1 October.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/63075931

    As dim as a 3 watt lightbulb.

    This is less dim than it used to be, of course.

    I blame grade inflation.
    What LED you to that conclusion?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855

    ydoethur said:

    Just how dim is Liz Truss?

    'Through the energy price guarantee the maximum [energy bill] will be £2,500'
    The prime minister incorrectly told more than one station that there would be a maximum energy bill of £2,500 after the energy price cap is lifted on 1 October.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/63075931

    As dim as a 3 watt lightbulb.

    This is less dim than it used to be, of course.

    I blame grade inflation.
    What LED you to that conclusion?
    She's a neon Conservative.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,673
    So now that apparently we aren’t in a technical recession - what are the chances Truss pushes us into one despite her promising her policies were the ones to avoid it?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,322

    Just how dim is Liz Truss?

    'Through the energy price guarantee the maximum [energy bill] will be £2,500'
    The prime minister incorrectly told more than one station that there would be a maximum energy bill of £2,500 after the energy price cap is lifted on 1 October.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/63075931

    That will be coming back to haunt her next week
    I reckon ours will be c. £4,000 (no gas; all-electric). That's 300% up on two years ago.
    Our is about the same, but all electric, no gas :smile:
  • 2nd like the LDs (Hoping for lots of MPs in the Tory wipeout)

    Realistically, Bev, how many seats do you think the LDs can get?

    Personally I'd love to see them become the official opposition and the few remaining Conservative MPs sent to one of Vlad's Gulags but I just can't see Team Davey getting above 50.

    What say you?
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,451

    Just how dim is Liz Truss?

    'Through the energy price guarantee the maximum [energy bill] will be £2,500'
    The prime minister incorrectly told more than one station that there would be a maximum energy bill of £2,500 after the energy price cap is lifted on 1 October.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/63075931

    As she has zero charisma she needs to be effective and accurate. And it looks like she's lacking there too.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,736

    Just how dim is Liz Truss?

    'Through the energy price guarantee the maximum [energy bill] will be £2,500'
    The prime minister incorrectly told more than one station that there would be a maximum energy bill of £2,500 after the energy price cap is lifted on 1 October.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/63075931

    As she has zero charisma she needs to be effective and accurate. And it looks like she's lacking there too.
    Very good point. That's where Starmer scores: zero charisma but effective and accurate.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,226
    Treasury Minister Andrew Griffith finally admits Britain’s economy was plunged into turmoil after last weeks Budget - and that it’s not just a global phenomenon .

    Says there has been a “Particular dynamic” here in the U.K.

    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1575746288825827329
  • Btw, Labour Maj still looks value to me and those that got on earlier are laughing kitbags (and may be able to pay their electricity bills.)
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,646

    FPT:

    As I predicted…
    https://bbc.co.uk/news/business-63086562

    Very quiet on here about this, and buried on the bbc. Agenda?
    It’s not great, but it could be worse.

    Feels about right. 'It could be worse' and it will be worse, sadly.'

    Green shoots?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855

    2nd like the LDs (Hoping for lots of MPs in the Tory wipeout)

    Realistically, Bev, how many seats do you think the LDs can get?

    Personally I'd love to see them become the official opposition and the few remaining Conservative MPs sent to one of Vlad's Gulags but I just can't see Team Davey getting above 50.

    What say you?
    If they do, they'd probably have a worse problem given many of their candidates would be unsuitable paper candidates who would be an embarrassment to the party. Jared O'Mara multiplied considerably.

    Their vetting isn't the best as it is, or Layla Moran's - ahem - interesting past would have been exposed before it became an issue.

    This may well be a problem for Labour too in a real landslide. They spent a lot of time up to 1997 carefully vetting all their candidates, and it did make a difference. But that was in the pre Twitter era.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328
    edited September 30

    FPT:

    As I predicted…
    https://bbc.co.uk/news/business-63086562

    Very quiet on here about this, and buried on the bbc. Agenda?
    It’s not great, but it could be worse.

    Feels about right. 'It could be worse' and it will be worse, sadly.'

    So much worse. After the GFC bail outs the idea has taken hold that the government can magic away any problems if they want to. It then becomes a moral failure not to. If you can bail out the banks why not me?

    So you pay my wages when I can’t work, you pay my heating bill when it goes up, you are responsible for my mortgage.

    It’s going to take a lot of time and pain to realise that the magic money tree has been cut down and burnt to keep us warm. The markets have said enough.

    We are heading back to reality, when people have to accept they are responsible for themselves. It’s going to be a hell of a detox.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,392
    Scott_xP said:

    🏡 Incoming housing market crash?

    Nationwide Building Society: “The start of a prolonged fall in house prices”

    “the staggering jump in mortgage rates finally is starting to weigh on buyer demand”

    “The outlook is even gloomier, due to a further jump in mortgage rates”


    https://twitter.com/SkyScottBeasley/status/1575743080279724032

    A “prolonged fall” would be great. It’s not the same as a “crash” mind
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,965
    DavidL said:

    FPT:

    As I predicted…
    https://bbc.co.uk/news/business-63086562

    Very quiet on here about this, and buried on the bbc. Agenda?
    It’s not great, but it could be worse.

    Feels about right. 'It could be worse' and it will be worse, sadly.'

    So much worse. After the GFC bail outs the idea has taken hold that the government can magic away any problems if they want to do it becomes a moral failure not to. If you can bail out the banks why not me?

    So you pay my wages when I can’t work, you pay my heating bill when it goes up, you are responsible for my mortgage.

    It’s going to take a lot of time and pain to realise that the magic money tree has been cut down and burnt to keep us warm. The markets have said enough.

    We are heading back to reality, when people have to accept they are responsible for themselves. It’s going to be a hell of a detox.
    One of the silver linings will be the destruction of the Conservative Party. Absolutely deserved for turning our great country into a filthy latrine.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,876
    edited September 30
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Just how dim is Liz Truss?

    'Through the energy price guarantee the maximum [energy bill] will be £2,500'
    The prime minister incorrectly told more than one station that there would be a maximum energy bill of £2,500 after the energy price cap is lifted on 1 October.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/63075931

    As dim as a 3 watt lightbulb.

    This is less dim than it used to be, of course.

    I blame grade inflation.
    What LED you to that conclusion?
    She's a neon Conservative.
    Maybe they should talk to the renowned Irish expert Professor O'Jen (Harry to his colleagues) about what to do.

    Can someone get Hal O'Jen on the line?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148
    If party members had the final say Badenoch would now be Tory leader not Truss. It was Tory MPs who put Truss in the final 2.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,226
    Lot of people rightly saying the markets will be reassured by the fact we are now going to get an accelerated OBR forecast. But isn't the new problem what that OBR analysis will actually say.
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1575747066248282113
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Just how dim is Liz Truss?

    'Through the energy price guarantee the maximum [energy bill] will be £2,500'
    The prime minister incorrectly told more than one station that there would be a maximum energy bill of £2,500 after the energy price cap is lifted on 1 October.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/63075931

    As dim as a 3 watt lightbulb.

    This is less dim than it used to be, of course.

    I blame grade inflation.
    What LED you to that conclusion?
    She's a neon Conservative.
    Maybe they should talk to the renowned Irish expert Professor O'Jen (Harry to his colleagues) about what to do.

    Can someone get Hal O'Jen on the line?

    Can someone get Hal
    Don't say that in Ireland, or you'll get lamped.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,736

    Just how dim is Liz Truss?

    'Through the energy price guarantee the maximum [energy bill] will be £2,500'
    The prime minister incorrectly told more than one station that there would be a maximum energy bill of £2,500 after the energy price cap is lifted on 1 October.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/63075931

    That will be coming back to haunt her next week
    I reckon ours will be c. £4,000 (no gas; all-electric). That's 300% up on two years ago.
    Our is about the same, but all electric, no gas :smile:
    I think those in power often forget that large swathes of the country, which in England at least are almost entirely Tory seats, have no access to mains gas. Another reason why Ofgem's price cap irritates - just tell us the cap prisces in kWh gas and kWh electricity!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328

    Just how dim is Liz Truss?

    'Through the energy price guarantee the maximum [energy bill] will be £2,500'
    The prime minister incorrectly told more than one station that there would be a maximum energy bill of £2,500 after the energy price cap is lifted on 1 October.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/63075931

    That will be coming back to haunt her next week
    I reckon ours will be c. £4,000 (no gas; all-electric). That's 300% up on two years ago.
    When oil prices quadrupled in the early 70’s it really didn’t cross the mind of anyone that it was for the government to subsidise fuel. We had to adjust to the new reality. Driving was no longer cheap. Drive less.
    Heating is no longer cheap. Insulate and spend less on other things.
    This is the real world.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,736
    DavidL said:

    FPT:

    As I predicted…
    https://bbc.co.uk/news/business-63086562

    Very quiet on here about this, and buried on the bbc. Agenda?
    It’s not great, but it could be worse.

    Feels about right. 'It could be worse' and it will be worse, sadly.'

    So much worse. After the GFC bail outs the idea has taken hold that the government can magic away any problems if they want to. It then becomes a moral failure not to. If you can bail out the banks why not me?

    So you pay my wages when I can’t work, you pay my heating bill when it goes up, you are responsible for my mortgage.

    It’s going to take a lot of time and pain to realise that the magic money tree has been cut down and burnt to keep us warm. The markets have said enough.

    We are heading back to reality, when people have to accept they are responsible for themselves. It’s going to be a hell of a detox.
    Wealth David. There's a lot out there (£17tn). Needs to be taxed.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,942
    edited September 30

    Just how dim is Liz Truss?

    'Through the energy price guarantee the maximum [energy bill] will be £2,500'
    The prime minister incorrectly told more than one station that there would be a maximum energy bill of £2,500 after the energy price cap is lifted on 1 October.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/63075931

    Its a mistake the media regular make. When that announcement was made the BBC reported as this in their alerts. The whole way it is announced (even before this new price cap) I imagine is misleading / confusing for a lot of members of the public.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,736
    edited September 30
    HYUFD said:

    If party members had the final say Badenoch would now be Tory leader not Truss. It was Tory MPs who put Truss in the final 2.

    Would Badenoch be doing anything different from Truss though?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,322

    Just how dim is Liz Truss?

    'Through the energy price guarantee the maximum [energy bill] will be £2,500'
    The prime minister incorrectly told more than one station that there would be a maximum energy bill of £2,500 after the energy price cap is lifted on 1 October.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/63075931

    That will be coming back to haunt her next week
    I reckon ours will be c. £4,000 (no gas; all-electric). That's 300% up on two years ago.
    Our is about the same, but all electric, no gas :smile:
    I think those in power often forget that large swathes of the country, which in England at least are almost entirely Tory seats, have no access to mains gas. Another reason why Ofgem's price cap irritates - just tell us the cap prisces in kWh gas and kWh electricity!
    There are going to have to be a lot of big changes for a lot of things in the UK. I doubt our lightweight PM will be the person to make them.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819
    DavidL said:

    Just how dim is Liz Truss?

    'Through the energy price guarantee the maximum [energy bill] will be £2,500'
    The prime minister incorrectly told more than one station that there would be a maximum energy bill of £2,500 after the energy price cap is lifted on 1 October.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/63075931

    That will be coming back to haunt her next week
    I reckon ours will be c. £4,000 (no gas; all-electric). That's 300% up on two years ago.
    When oil prices quadrupled in the early 70’s it really didn’t cross the mind of anyone that it was for the government to subsidise fuel. We had to adjust to the new reality. Driving was no longer cheap. Drive less.
    Heating is no longer cheap. Insulate and spend less on other things.
    This is the real world.
    The choice is immediate depression or subsidies and a recession...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,670
    Nothing like catching a typo when it's too late to correct.

    I blame the markets for talking Britain down.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,365
    HYUFD said:

    If party members had the final say Badenoch would now be Tory leader not Truss. It was Tory MPs who put Truss in the final 2.

    The system is the worst of all worlds.
  • ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    What seems likely is that departmental budgets will be frozen at the same cash level — a fairly significant real-terms cut given inflation. This may well be done for the next five years.

    There are several risks. First, how possible is it in reality? Could you really hold down the NHS budget like this? David Cameron and George Osborne believed it was politically vital to exclude the health service from austerity. The political danger is that if you freeze the health budget, every problem the NHS experiences this winter (expected long before Truss entered No 10) and next year gets blamed on the Tories starving it of cash. The risk of the NHS falling over is perhaps even more dangerous to the government than the reaction to the mini-budget.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/for-unbowed-truss-theres-no-easy-way-out-d0g282dth

    Also more than a slight problem in education, given they've substantially jacked up costs already while only increasing funding by 1%.
    It's the sort of thing that looks like it makes sense if you are playing with a spreadsheet. If government income goes up due to inflation, but government spending is held flat, then the government borrowing problem vanishes.

    Discovering the flaw in this is left as a not-very-difficult exercise for the reader.

    (Meanwhile, my Spidey Sense indicates that some schools are not only running short on permanent staff, but on temps as well. And it's still only September.)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328

    DavidL said:

    FPT:

    As I predicted…
    https://bbc.co.uk/news/business-63086562

    Very quiet on here about this, and buried on the bbc. Agenda?
    It’s not great, but it could be worse.

    Feels about right. 'It could be worse' and it will be worse, sadly.'

    So much worse. After the GFC bail outs the idea has taken hold that the government can magic away any problems if they want to. It then becomes a moral failure not to. If you can bail out the banks why not me?

    So you pay my wages when I can’t work, you pay my heating bill when it goes up, you are responsible for my mortgage.

    It’s going to take a lot of time and pain to realise that the magic money tree has been cut down and burnt to keep us warm. The markets have said enough.

    We are heading back to reality, when people have to accept they are responsible for themselves. It’s going to be a hell of a detox.
    Wealth David. There's a lot out there
    (£17tn). Needs to be taxed.
    Sure. And a lot of that wealth has been created by ultra low interest rates and sitting on assets. Completely unearned. But that money will be needed to pay the doctors, the teachers, the police etc. Not peoples bills.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,322
    HYUFD said:

    If party members had the final say Badenoch would now be Tory leader not Truss. It was Tory MPs who put Truss in the final 2.

    As I recall, the ideas she put forward were, to put it politely, a bit "out there". She would have been a different kind of disaster, that is all.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819
    From the Economics Editor of the FT


    https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1575743123111743488
    Chris Giles
    @ChrisGiles_
    This meeting between @trussliz, @KwasiKwarteng and @OBR_UK is not remotely normal

    Normal is one face-to-face meeting just before the Budget (otherwise email exchanges)

    This looks like ministers wielding the thumbscrews to an independent economic institution

    Not a good look
  • Just how dim is Liz Truss?

    'Through the energy price guarantee the maximum [energy bill] will be £2,500'
    The prime minister incorrectly told more than one station that there would be a maximum energy bill of £2,500 after the energy price cap is lifted on 1 October.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/63075931

    This is a *major* fuck up. The price cap was badly understood in general. What people understood was that their bills might triple or quadruple - unpayable - but thanks to the cap have mererly doubled - unpayable.

    But saying its a cash cap will enrage all the people paying more than £2,500. Who likely have bigger hiuuses, and likely were Tory supporters. The rout in the Tory numbers - and we have polls of 19 / 20 / 21 point deficits not just the Zahaw Bomba - is from firmly middle ground voters fleeing. This will make that worse.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    "One hates to say it in a Tory newspaper, but the Government seems embarked on a course of sheer madness."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/09/29/liz-truss-embarked-course-sheer-madness-taking-bank-england1/
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644
    DavidL said:

    FPT:

    As I predicted…
    https://bbc.co.uk/news/business-63086562

    Very quiet on here about this, and buried on the bbc. Agenda?
    It’s not great, but it could be worse.

    Feels about right. 'It could be worse' and it will be worse, sadly.'

    So much worse. After the GFC bail outs the idea has taken hold that the government can magic away any problems if they want to. It then becomes a moral failure not to. If you can bail out the banks why not me?

    So you pay my wages when I can’t work, you pay my heating bill when it goes up, you are responsible for my mortgage.

    It’s going to take a lot of time and pain to realise that the magic money tree has been cut down and burnt to keep us warm. The markets have said enough.

    We are heading back to reality, when people have to accept they are responsible for themselves. It’s going to be a hell of a detox.
    I don’t think the problem is that voters believe in a magic money tree, it’s that the Government believes in a magic money tree (which is the power of tax cuts).

  • eekeek Posts: 21,819

    Just how dim is Liz Truss?

    'Through the energy price guarantee the maximum [energy bill] will be £2,500'
    The prime minister incorrectly told more than one station that there would be a maximum energy bill of £2,500 after the energy price cap is lifted on 1 October.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/63075931

    This is a *major* fuck up. The price cap was badly understood in general. What people understood was that their bills might triple or quadruple - unpayable - but thanks to the cap have mererly doubled - unpayable.

    But saying its a cash cap will enrage all the people paying more than £2,500. Who likely have bigger hiuuses, and likely were Tory supporters. The rout in the Tory numbers - and we have polls of 19 / 20 / 21 point deficits not just the Zahaw Bomba - is from firmly middle ground voters fleeing. This will make that worse.
    There will also no doubt have neighbours who hit lucky with their timing and choice of supplier so are on fixed rate bills (that are now discounted) paying mid 2021 rates...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,670
    Mr. Seal, it's been pretty common for MPs to have one candidate deemed unacceptable by the members and another who isn't great but who gets picked.

    See Ken Clarke (too pro-EU) versus IDS.
    Or Hunt (also not Leave enough) versus Johnson.
    And now Sunak versus Truss.

    The system's great from a betting perspective but the only time it seemed to deliver the best candidate was with Cameron. I do think Ken Clarke is also a bit of a weird exception because he's very competent indeed but being so pro-EU in a sceptical party was a non-starter.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328

    Scott_xP said:

    🏡 Incoming housing market crash?

    Nationwide Building Society: “The start of a prolonged fall in house prices”

    “the staggering jump in mortgage rates finally is starting to weigh on buyer demand”

    “The outlook is even gloomier, due to a further jump in mortgage rates”


    https://twitter.com/SkyScottBeasley/status/1575743080279724032

    A “prolonged fall” would be great. It’s not the same as a “crash” mind
    Ideally prices fall a long way in real terms but not nominal ones, avoiding the misery of negative equity.
  • 2nd like the LDs (Hoping for lots of MPs in the Tory wipeout)

    Realistically, Bev, how many seats do you think the LDs can get?

    Personally I'd love to see them become the official opposition and the few remaining Conservative MPs sent to one of Vlad's Gulags but I just can't see Team Davey getting above 50.

    What say you?
    I was commenting about the LD target list yesterday (https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat)

    Whilst I don't expect them to pick up every seat in succession, in a "fuck the Tories" election you get all kinds of interesting results. And well into triple digits are seats held by the LibDems as recently as 2010...
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644
    HYUFD said:

    If party members had the final say Badenoch would now be Tory leader not Truss. It was Tory MPs who put Truss in the final 2.

    Badenoch believes the same libertarian nonsense as Truss and Kwarteng. She might’ve been less wooden in interviews, but she’s likely to have pursued similarly unpopular policies.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,226
    Libertarian cranks all over the world have long been dreaming of what Blundertruss and Krasi have done this week. They wrote books, funded think tanks & yearned to free the rich from all shackles and nirvana will follow. All that time spent dreaming & it lasted about ten minutes.
    https://twitter.com/NIAbbot/status/1575423589284708352
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    edited September 30

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    What seems likely is that departmental budgets will be frozen at the same cash level — a fairly significant real-terms cut given inflation. This may well be done for the next five years.

    There are several risks. First, how possible is it in reality? Could you really hold down the NHS budget like this? David Cameron and George Osborne believed it was politically vital to exclude the health service from austerity. The political danger is that if you freeze the health budget, every problem the NHS experiences this winter (expected long before Truss entered No 10) and next year gets blamed on the Tories starving it of cash. The risk of the NHS falling over is perhaps even more dangerous to the government than the reaction to the mini-budget.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/for-unbowed-truss-theres-no-easy-way-out-d0g282dth

    Also more than a slight problem in education, given they've substantially jacked up costs already while only increasing funding by 1%.
    It's the sort of thing that looks like it makes sense if you are playing with a spreadsheet. If government income goes up due to inflation, but government spending is held flat, then the government borrowing problem vanishes.

    Discovering the flaw in this is left as a not-very-difficult exercise for the reader.

    (Meanwhile, my Spidey Sense indicates that some schools are not only running short on permanent staff, but on temps as well. And it's still only September.)
    @dixiedean and I were talking about this last night.

    Reports indicate 54% of schools have unfilled teaching vacancies. That rises to 81% in PRUs and special schools.

    His school is at the stage where it can't function normally.

    I am being bombarded with requests to go on supply which at the moment I am having no trouble resisting.

    That's a long winded way of saying your Spidey Sense seems good to me...
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,673
    Truss is going to stand up and essentially say “we froze benefit payments below inflation to pay for our tax cut to the rich”

    How does anyone support that? Or sell that on the doorstep?

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328
    Scott_xP said:

    Lot of people rightly saying the markets will be reassured by the fact we are now going to get an accelerated OBR forecast. But isn't the new problem what that OBR analysis will actually say.
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1575747066248282113

    Indeed. It will say that unfunded tax cuts may boost demand but there is a set off of higher inflation and higher interest rates which may, on balance, reduce growth. Well, who knew?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,075
    edited September 30

    DavidL said:

    FPT:

    As I predicted…
    https://bbc.co.uk/news/business-63086562

    Very quiet on here about this, and buried on the bbc. Agenda?
    It’s not great, but it could be worse.

    Feels about right. 'It could be worse' and it will be worse, sadly.'

    So much worse. After the GFC bail outs the idea has taken hold that the government can magic away any problems if they want to. It then becomes a moral failure not to. If you can bail out the banks why not me?

    So you pay my wages when I can’t work, you pay my heating bill when it goes up, you are responsible for my mortgage.

    It’s going to take a lot of time and pain to realise that the magic money tree has been cut down and burnt to keep us warm. The markets have said enough.

    We are heading back to reality, when people have to accept they are responsible for themselves. It’s going to be a hell of a detox.
    Wealth David. There's a lot out there (£17tn). Needs to be taxed.
    Good morning

    The problem with any wealth tax is designing it to hit the anyone but me mentality, and any party who even hints at taxing owner occupiers will plummet as fast as Truss and Kwarteng

    Listening to Starmer on this subject yesterday his idea of a wealth tax is to tax divideds which in turn hits pensions

    In theory there may be billions, but in practice it is unlikely anyone will come up with a wealth tax that produces anything like those who support one hope

    And I would add @DavidL posts this morning are a sober reflection that the days of cheap money are over and we cannot just guarantee everyone will be shielded from energy and mortgage rises by the government

    It is near certain Labour will win in 2024 but they are facing a poison chalice for years to come, indeed will the war with Russia be over by then ?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,226

    Truss is going to stand up and essentially say “we froze benefit payments below inflation to pay for our tax cut to the rich”

    How does anyone support that? Or sell that on the doorstep?

    The last few days have been a catastrophe for the government. But that will be nothing compared to what will happen if they actually do decide to adopt a policy of slashing benefits alongside 45p and bankers bonuses. It will define the Conservative party for a generation.
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1575749395756507137
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,467
    edited September 30
    Scott_xP said:

    Libertarian cranks all over the world have long been dreaming of what Blundertruss and Krasi have done this week. They wrote books, funded think tanks & yearned to free the rich from all shackles and nirvana will follow. All that time spent dreaming & it lasted about ten minutes.
    https://twitter.com/NIAbbot/status/1575423589284708352

    The unfortunate thing is that if they'd done it any time between 2010 and 2021 it would have been fine. They barely missed the one weird decade when governments could print money for free and nothing bad would happen.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,927

    Just how dim is Liz Truss?

    'Through the energy price guarantee the maximum [energy bill] will be £2,500'
    The prime minister incorrectly told more than one station that there would be a maximum energy bill of £2,500 after the energy price cap is lifted on 1 October.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/63075931

    This is a *major* fuck up. The price cap was badly understood in general. What people understood was that their bills might triple or quadruple - unpayable - but thanks to the cap have mererly doubled - unpayable.

    But saying its a cash cap will enrage all the people paying more than £2,500. Who likely have bigger hiuuses, and likely were Tory supporters. The rout in the Tory numbers - and we have polls of 19 / 20 / 21 point deficits not just the Zahaw Bomba - is from firmly middle ground voters fleeing. This will make that worse.
    The cap was 1900, its now 2500 with a 400 bill payment as well, whose bill is doubling?

    For my 2 bedroom house with the cap and the bill payment I will be paying £90 less than last year for the same usage. Im sure there are millions of people living in small houses whose net energy costs will not now be going up compared to last winter.
  • DavidL said:

    Just how dim is Liz Truss?

    'Through the energy price guarantee the maximum [energy bill] will be £2,500'
    The prime minister incorrectly told more than one station that there would be a maximum energy bill of £2,500 after the energy price cap is lifted on 1 October.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/63075931

    That will be coming back to haunt her next week
    I reckon ours will be c. £4,000 (no gas; all-electric). That's 300% up on two years ago.
    When oil prices quadrupled in the early 70’s it really didn’t cross the mind of anyone that it was for the government to subsidise fuel. We had to adjust to the new reality. Driving was no longer cheap. Drive less.
    Heating is no longer cheap. Insulate and spend less on other things.
    This is the real world.
    How do people "insulate". They do not have the money to pay for food, never mind insulation. And the insulation installers are booked up til Christmas 2027.

    How do people "spend less on other things" when they do not have a disposable income at all? The choice of heat or eat is not a false dichotomy - its reality for far too many people.

    You'll be saying "get a better job" or "just work harder" next like a true Truss loon. I know you're not, but I don't think you understand lived reality for so many of your neighbours.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    edited September 30
    This is a rather interesting conversation.

    https://www.aljazeera.com/program/the-bottom-line/2022/9/29/could-the-ukraine-war-go-nuclear

    I know alJazeera have been frequently criticised for all sorts of things, but I've read some pretty good reports from them about Ukraine. They are, of course, more or less neutral in this fight.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,322

    2nd like the LDs (Hoping for lots of MPs in the Tory wipeout)

    Realistically, Bev, how many seats do you think the LDs can get?

    Personally I'd love to see them become the official opposition and the few remaining Conservative MPs sent to one of Vlad's Gulags but I just can't see Team Davey getting above 50.

    What say you?
    I was commenting about the LD target list yesterday (https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat)

    Whilst I don't expect them to pick up every seat in succession, in a "fuck the Tories" election you get all kinds of interesting results. And well into triple digits are seats held by the LibDems as recently as 2010...
    That is an interesting list. Cheadle and Hazel Grove are two that were only a few miles from where I used to live and could see them being achievable. However, given that the expectation is of a massive Tory collapse, even a 10% swing only gets them up about 30 MPs and I doubt the Labour marginals will be winnable for them.

    Thanks for sharing that.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644
    Catastrophe? Aren’t we calling it the Catrusstrophe?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,591
    DavidL said:

    Just how dim is Liz Truss?

    'Through the energy price guarantee the maximum [energy bill] will be £2,500'
    The prime minister incorrectly told more than one station that there would be a maximum energy bill of £2,500 after the energy price cap is lifted on 1 October.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/63075931

    That will be coming back to haunt her next week
    I reckon ours will be c. £4,000 (no gas; all-electric). That's 300% up on two years ago.
    When oil prices quadrupled in the early 70’s it really didn’t cross the mind of anyone that it was for the government to subsidise fuel. We had to adjust to the new reality. Driving was no longer cheap. Drive less.
    Heating is no longer cheap. Insulate and spend less on other things.
    This is the real world.
    You may very well be right but its very easy to say such things from a position of privilege.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,410
    I see the market has converged on my long standing 40/40/20 prediction. I think it's priced about right now, but things could move further in Labour's favour depending on how the next couple of weeks play out.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,673
    I had a good listen to the rest is politics last night with Alistair Campbell and Rory Stewart

    Really interesting (and not surprised) to hear of Stewart’s experience of working with Kwasi. Apparently he would barely listen to any alternative view - sort of explains a lot.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,942
    edited September 30
    ydoethur said:

    This is a rather interesting conversation.

    https://www.aljazeera.com/program/the-bottom-line/2022/9/29/could-the-ukraine-war-go-nuclear

    I know alJazeera have been frequently criticised for all sorts of things, but I've read some pretty good reports from them about Ukraine. They are, of course, more or less neutral in this fight.

    alJazeera is now one of the best funded news organisations in the world. If you ignore the obviously blindspot for bad things happening in their own country they are doing lots of interesting journalism e.g. The documentary on the men who sell football was a proper piece of old school long form investigative journalism, which ended up exposing not just dodgy goings on in UK football world but stretched to things like Cypriot passport scandal.
  • HYUFD said:

    If party members had the final say Badenoch would now be Tory leader not Truss. It was Tory MPs who put Truss in the final 2.

    Would Badenoch be doing anything different from Truss though?
    No - far too naive and inexperienced

    If the party had their time back Sunak was the best candidate by some distance
  • DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🏡 Incoming housing market crash?

    Nationwide Building Society: “The start of a prolonged fall in house prices”

    “the staggering jump in mortgage rates finally is starting to weigh on buyer demand”

    “The outlook is even gloomier, due to a further jump in mortgage rates”


    https://twitter.com/SkyScottBeasley/status/1575743080279724032

    A “prolonged fall” would be great. It’s not the same as a “crash” mind
    Ideally prices fall a long way in real terms but not nominal ones, avoiding the misery of negative equity.
    Though that requires sustained fairly high general inflation. That creates its own problems, including nominal interest rates that will crash house prices.

    Like a bubble in wallpaper, we can shift the unpleasantness but not easily make it vanish.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,670
    Mr. Abode, the fun part is that, even as someone generally on the right and who likes tax cuts in principle and believes benefits should not be excessively generous, it's nuts.

    But, having seen the doom upon her, Truss has decided to run towards it.

    At this rate it'll be fun working out who to vote for when the Great Extinction (GE) is upon us.
  • DavidL said:

    FPT:

    As I predicted…
    https://bbc.co.uk/news/business-63086562

    Very quiet on here about this, and buried on the bbc. Agenda?
    It’s not great, but it could be worse.

    Feels about right. 'It could be worse' and it will be worse, sadly.'

    So much worse. After the GFC bail outs the idea has taken hold that the government can magic away any problems if they want to. It then becomes a moral failure not to. If you can bail out the banks why not me?

    So you pay my wages when I can’t work, you pay my heating bill when it goes up, you are responsible for my mortgage.

    It’s going to take a lot of time and pain to realise that the magic money tree has been cut down and burnt to keep us warm. The markets have said enough.

    We are heading back to reality, when people have to accept they are responsible for themselves. It’s going to be a hell of a detox.
    Wealth David. There's a lot out there (£17tn). Needs to be taxed.
    I do have some sympathies with what David is saying. The state can't just keep bailing different groups out forever. But as you point out, the one group that is always bailed out is the ultra-rich. The problem of course if how do you tax said wealth when it isn't all here or can be moved quickly?

    Uniquely the UK starts from a position of on paper being a rich country with very high standard of living expectations, but conversely an infrastructure and safety net which is stunted and crumbling. Everything costs an absolute bomb here either to buy or to fund, so "you'll just have to look after yourself" is how you see very large numbers of families and people slide into penury very quickly.

    So whilst I can see the "we need to reshape the state" argument Trussians are exercised by, it isn't to smash the state to make it easier to exploit for the ultra-rich as they are doing. It is the opposite. Far too much money gets syphoned out of things like healthcare to management and away from actual medicine. We pay a fortune for mediocre services like water which can't even do the basics because of the vast sums taken from us and handed to a few shareholders.

    You want to reshape the state and cut costs to make it affordable, AND have some kind of wealth tax? Stop the parasites sucking us dry...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328

    DavidL said:

    Just how dim is Liz Truss?

    'Through the energy price guarantee the maximum [energy bill] will be £2,500'
    The prime minister incorrectly told more than one station that there would be a maximum energy bill of £2,500 after the energy price cap is lifted on 1 October.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/63075931

    That will be coming back to haunt her next week
    I reckon ours will be c. £4,000 (no gas; all-electric). That's 300% up on two years ago.
    When oil prices quadrupled in the early 70’s it really didn’t cross the mind of anyone that it was for the government to subsidise fuel. We had to adjust to the new reality. Driving was no longer cheap. Drive less.
    Heating is no longer cheap. Insulate and spend less on other things.
    This is the real world.
    How do people "insulate". They do not have the money to pay for food, never mind insulation. And the insulation installers are booked up til Christmas 2027.

    How do people "spend less on other things" when they do not have a disposable income at all? The choice of heat or eat is not a false dichotomy - its reality for far too many people.

    You'll be saying "get a better job" or "just work harder" next like a true Truss loon. I know you're not, but I don't think you understand lived reality for so many of your
    neighbours.
    I do understand. It’s going to be hard. The government must protect the most vulnerable, eg those on benefits. But the idea that they can pay everyone’s heating bill is frankly mad. The reliefs are far too wide and should always been targeted on the bottom 10%. The rest of us had to adapt.

  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,576
    ydoethur said:

    This is a rather interesting conversation.

    https://www.aljazeera.com/program/the-bottom-line/2022/9/29/could-the-ukraine-war-go-nuclear

    I know alJazeera have been frequently criticised for all sorts of things, but I've read some pretty good reports from them about Ukraine. They are, of course, more or less neutral in this fight.

    Neutrality is an interesting concept. When Ireland was neutral at the time the world, and UK, faced an existential threat of barbarian Nazi darkness does that mean they were equally comfortable (or uncomfortable) with all outcomes? Same question here.

  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,673

    Mr. Abode, the fun part is that, even as someone generally on the right and who likes tax cuts in principle and believes benefits should not be excessively generous, it's nuts.

    But, having seen the doom upon her, Truss has decided to run towards it.

    At this rate it'll be fun working out who to vote for when the Great Extinction (GE) is upon us.

    But Mr Dancer - she’s prepared to be unpopular. I’ve no idea how she reconciles that with winning elections

    (On a more positive note - I’ve got a good feeling about McLaren this weekend. Though I wouldn’t be surprised if Max dominates..interesting rumours swirling around that red bull broke the cost cap last season)
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🏡 Incoming housing market crash?

    Nationwide Building Society: “The start of a prolonged fall in house prices”

    “the staggering jump in mortgage rates finally is starting to weigh on buyer demand”

    “The outlook is even gloomier, due to a further jump in mortgage rates”


    https://twitter.com/SkyScottBeasley/status/1575743080279724032

    A “prolonged fall” would be great. It’s not the same as a “crash” mind
    Ideally prices fall a long way in real terms but not nominal ones, avoiding the misery of negative equity.
    Though that requires sustained fairly high general inflation. That creates its own problems, including nominal interest rates that will crash house prices.

    Like a bubble in wallpaper, we can shift the unpleasantness but not easily make it vanish.
    The best you can really hope for is a 10-20% drop in prices and then sustained wage inflation while house prices remain nominally the same...

    Don't know if we will get that because that requires productivity gains and we haven't had those for a long time..
  • 2nd like the LDs (Hoping for lots of MPs in the Tory wipeout)

    Realistically, Bev, how many seats do you think the LDs can get?

    Personally I'd love to see them become the official opposition and the few remaining Conservative MPs sent to one of Vlad's Gulags but I just can't see Team Davey getting above 50.

    What say you?
    I was commenting about the LD target list yesterday (https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat)

    Whilst I don't expect them to pick up every seat in succession, in a "fuck the Tories" election you get all kinds of interesting results. And well into triple digits are seats held by the LibDems as recently as 2010...
    That is an interesting list. Cheadle and Hazel Grove are two that were only a few miles from where I used to live and could see them being achievable. However, given that the expectation is of a massive Tory collapse, even a 10% swing only gets them up about 30 MPs and I doubt the Labour marginals will be winnable for them.

    Thanks for sharing that.
    Forget national swings and look at 1997 and 2019 as examples. In both there was a determination by the electorate to punish the Tories / get Brexit done. So we saw all kinds of unlikely seats change hands way down the list as locally people weighed up their options and piled in. A 10% swing nationally will be significantly higher in some swing seats.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,451
    Scott_xP said:

    Libertarian cranks all over the world have long been dreaming of what Blundertruss and Krasi have done this week. They wrote books, funded think tanks & yearned to free the rich from all shackles and nirvana will follow. All that time spent dreaming & it lasted about ten minutes.
    https://twitter.com/NIAbbot/status/1575423589284708352

    Ok but if you want to try that stuff you don't start from here.
  • eek said:

    Just how dim is Liz Truss?

    'Through the energy price guarantee the maximum [energy bill] will be £2,500'
    The prime minister incorrectly told more than one station that there would be a maximum energy bill of £2,500 after the energy price cap is lifted on 1 October.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/63075931

    This is a *major* fuck up. The price cap was badly understood in general. What people understood was that their bills might triple or quadruple - unpayable - but thanks to the cap have mererly doubled - unpayable.

    But saying its a cash cap will enrage all the people paying more than £2,500. Who likely have bigger hiuuses, and likely were Tory supporters. The rout in the Tory numbers - and we have polls of 19 / 20 / 21 point deficits not just the Zahaw Bomba - is from firmly middle ground voters fleeing. This will make that worse.
    There will also no doubt have neighbours who hit lucky with their timing and choice of supplier so are on fixed rate bills (that are now discounted) paying mid 2021 rates...
    I agreed a 2 year fix in September 21 and am so fortunate and with the £66 per month rebate to April my monthly payments will be just £18 and I will be £500 or more in credit by April

    I never thought at the time it would be such a sensible deal as it was considerably more than my previous one
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    algarkirk said:

    ydoethur said:

    This is a rather interesting conversation.

    https://www.aljazeera.com/program/the-bottom-line/2022/9/29/could-the-ukraine-war-go-nuclear

    I know alJazeera have been frequently criticised for all sorts of things, but I've read some pretty good reports from them about Ukraine. They are, of course, more or less neutral in this fight.

    Neutrality is an interesting concept. When Ireland was neutral at the time the world, and UK, faced an existential threat of barbarian Nazi darkness does that mean they were equally comfortable (or uncomfortable) with all outcomes? Same question here.

    As put by one Irish person speaking to Robert Kee in 1980: 'While there was no desire on the part of the Irish to see the Nazis win, there was always a certain amusement on hearing of British military reverses.'
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,461
    Scott_xP said:

    Truss is going to stand up and essentially say “we froze benefit payments below inflation to pay for our tax cut to the rich”

    How does anyone support that? Or sell that on the doorstep?

    The last few days have been a catastrophe for the government. But that will be nothing compared to what will happen if they actually do decide to adopt a policy of slashing benefits alongside 45p and bankers bonuses. It will define the Conservative party for a generation.
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1575749395756507137
    Interesting from a Mail journalist.

    If Dan's reputation as a slippery eel wasn't so well established I'm sure Mr Dacre and he would be having words

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328

    DavidL said:

    Just how dim is Liz Truss?

    'Through the energy price guarantee the maximum [energy bill] will be £2,500'
    The prime minister incorrectly told more than one station that there would be a maximum energy bill of £2,500 after the energy price cap is lifted on 1 October.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/63075931

    That will be coming back to haunt her next week
    I reckon ours will be c. £4,000 (no gas; all-electric). That's 300% up on two years ago.
    When oil prices quadrupled in the early 70’s it really didn’t cross the mind of anyone that it was for the government to subsidise fuel. We had to adjust to the new reality. Driving was no longer cheap. Drive less.
    Heating is no longer cheap. Insulate and spend less on other things.
    This is the real world.
    You may very well be right but its very easy to say such things from a position of
    privilege.
    Yes it is. But that doesn’t make what I have said false.

  • Scott_xP said:

    Truss is going to stand up and essentially say “we froze benefit payments below inflation to pay for our tax cut to the rich”

    How does anyone support that? Or sell that on the doorstep?

    The last few days have been a catastrophe for the government. But that will be nothing compared to what will happen if they actually do decide to adopt a policy of slashing benefits alongside 45p and bankers bonuses. It will define the Conservative party for a generation.
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1575749395756507137
    You mean it goes down from just 2 conservative mps in 2024 to nil
  • Just how dim is Liz Truss?

    'Through the energy price guarantee the maximum [energy bill] will be £2,500'
    The prime minister incorrectly told more than one station that there would be a maximum energy bill of £2,500 after the energy price cap is lifted on 1 October.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/63075931

    This is a *major* fuck up. The price cap was badly understood in general. What people understood was that their bills might triple or quadruple - unpayable - but thanks to the cap have mererly doubled - unpayable.

    But saying its a cash cap will enrage all the people paying more than £2,500. Who likely have bigger hiuuses, and likely were Tory supporters. The rout in the Tory numbers - and we have polls of 19 / 20 / 21 point deficits not just the Zahaw Bomba - is from firmly middle ground voters fleeing. This will make that worse.
    The cap was 1900, its now 2500 with a 400 bill payment as well, whose bill is doubling?

    For my 2 bedroom house with the cap and the bill payment I will be paying £90 less than last year for the same usage. Im sure there are millions of people living in small houses whose net energy costs will not now be going up compared to last winter.
    Whose bill is doubling? What was the cap last winter?

    This is the problem you Trussites have. You can keep saying "the sky is green" as passionately as you like. Then people look up and say "but it's blue"...
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819
    edited September 30
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Just how dim is Liz Truss?

    'Through the energy price guarantee the maximum [energy bill] will be £2,500'
    The prime minister incorrectly told more than one station that there would be a maximum energy bill of £2,500 after the energy price cap is lifted on 1 October.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/63075931

    That will be coming back to haunt her next week
    I reckon ours will be c. £4,000 (no gas; all-electric). That's 300% up on two years ago.
    When oil prices quadrupled in the early 70’s it really didn’t cross the mind of anyone that it was for the government to subsidise fuel. We had to adjust to the new reality. Driving was no longer cheap. Drive less.
    Heating is no longer cheap. Insulate and spend less on other things.
    This is the real world.
    How do people "insulate". They do not have the money to pay for food, never mind insulation. And the insulation installers are booked up til Christmas 2027.

    How do people "spend less on other things" when they do not have a disposable income at all? The choice of heat or eat is not a false dichotomy - its reality for far too many people.

    You'll be saying "get a better job" or "just work harder" next like a true Truss loon. I know you're not, but I don't think you understand lived reality for so many of your
    neighbours.
    I do understand. It’s going to be hard. The government must protect the most vulnerable, eg those on benefits. But the idea that they can pay everyone’s heating bill is frankly mad. The reliefs are far too wide and should always been targeted on the bottom 10%. The rest of us had to adapt.

    If the rest of us had to adapt - discretionary spending would have nosedived and large parts of the service industry decimated as people went from having £500 of spending money a month to £0 or less...

    Now we aren't poor but Mrs Eek cancelled a trip to Cornwall to visit friends because of the cost of fuel - and if she is doing something like that I dread to think what others are doing...
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,576

    Truss is going to stand up and essentially say “we froze benefit payments below inflation to pay for our tax cut to the rich”

    How does anyone support that? Or sell that on the doorstep?

    Plainly that is unsellable. The discussion in due course will move to the trickier question of what 5 or 10 year plan for public finances can possibly satisfy the voters, the IMF, the OBR, IFS, the Bank of England, the just about managing, the unions, benefits people, tax payers, pensioners, mortgage customers and the financial markets.

    At some point Labour need such a plan covering tax, spend, borrowing and debt management. I think they may need a cleverer shadow chancellor than the present one.

    Winning a majority or enough to govern after the GE looks like the easy bit to me.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,670
    Mr. Abode, a while back I did back Perez. Street circuits are very much his thing. Also Sainz, who is sharper than Leclerc when it comes to telling Ferrari strategists they're wrong.

    Hmm. Unsure about McLaren. Though Norris did do well in Monaco.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,600
    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Just how dim is Liz Truss?

    'Through the energy price guarantee the maximum [energy bill] will be £2,500'
    The prime minister incorrectly told more than one station that there would be a maximum energy bill of £2,500 after the energy price cap is lifted on 1 October.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/63075931

    That will be coming back to haunt her next week
    I reckon ours will be c. £4,000 (no gas; all-electric). That's 300% up on two years ago.
    When oil prices quadrupled in the early 70’s it really didn’t cross the mind of anyone that it was for the government to subsidise fuel. We had to adjust to the new reality. Driving was no longer cheap. Drive less.
    Heating is no longer cheap. Insulate and spend less on other things.
    This is the real world.
    The choice is immediate depression or subsidies and a recession...
    Quite. DavidL's 'solution' is utterly bonkers.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Just how dim is Liz Truss?

    'Through the energy price guarantee the maximum [energy bill] will be £2,500'
    The prime minister incorrectly told more than one station that there would be a maximum energy bill of £2,500 after the energy price cap is lifted on 1 October.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/63075931

    That will be coming back to haunt her next week
    I reckon ours will be c. £4,000 (no gas; all-electric). That's 300% up on two years ago.
    When oil prices quadrupled in the early 70’s it really didn’t cross the mind of anyone that it was for the government to subsidise fuel. We had to adjust to the new reality. Driving was no longer cheap. Drive less.
    Heating is no longer cheap. Insulate and spend less on other things.
    This is the real world.
    How do people "insulate". They do not have the money to pay for food, never mind insulation. And the insulation installers are booked up til Christmas 2027.

    How do people "spend less on other things" when they do not have a disposable income at all? The choice of heat or eat is not a false dichotomy - its reality for far too many people.

    You'll be saying "get a better job" or "just work harder" next like a true Truss loon. I know you're not, but I don't think you understand lived reality for so many of your
    neighbours.
    I do understand. It’s going to be hard. The government must protect the most vulnerable, eg those on benefits. But the idea that they can pay everyone’s heating bill is frankly mad. The reliefs are far too wide and should always been targeted on the bottom 10%. The rest of us had to adapt.

    The problem is simple - the economy. Was chatting with another well paid director yesterday in a meeting which he sidetracked straight onto "the [food] market is fucked thanks to the government". Me, thee and him may be able to afford our bills. But every extra pound we pay to the French government in gas bills is a pound we're not spending elsewhere in the economy.

    The tighter your finances, the worse the impact of this. Once your entire disposable income has gone you are spending almost nothing in the economy. Not only is your life miserable, you are stopping the circulation of money which in turn makes business close and other people lose their jobs, they also stop spending, and the economic doom loop spirals ever lower.

    All of that costs the government money. A big recession and a load of people out of work is expensive. So however bad the bill is to pay energy bills, it keeps people spending. Which keeps people in jobs and businesses trading...
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819

    Just how dim is Liz Truss?

    'Through the energy price guarantee the maximum [energy bill] will be £2,500'
    The prime minister incorrectly told more than one station that there would be a maximum energy bill of £2,500 after the energy price cap is lifted on 1 October.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/63075931

    This is a *major* fuck up. The price cap was badly understood in general. What people understood was that their bills might triple or quadruple - unpayable - but thanks to the cap have mererly doubled - unpayable.

    But saying its a cash cap will enrage all the people paying more than £2,500. Who likely have bigger hiuuses, and likely were Tory supporters. The rout in the Tory numbers - and we have polls of 19 / 20 / 21 point deficits not just the Zahaw Bomba - is from firmly middle ground voters fleeing. This will make that worse.
    The cap was 1900, its now 2500 with a 400 bill payment as well, whose bill is doubling?

    For my 2 bedroom house with the cap and the bill payment I will be paying £90 less than last year for the same usage. Im sure there are millions of people living in small houses whose net energy costs will not now be going up compared to last winter.
    Whose bill is doubling? What was the cap last winter?

    This is the problem you Trussites have. You can keep saying "the sky is green" as passionately as you like. Then people look up and say "but it's blue"...
    Cap (household average) to 1 October 2021 £1042
    Cap to 1 April 2022 £1277
    Cap to 1 October 2022 £1971
    Cap from 1 October 2022 £2500

    That to me looks like a 150% increase in 18 months and that is with Government intervention...
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,755

    FPT:

    As I predicted…
    https://bbc.co.uk/news/business-63086562

    Very quiet on here about this, and buried on the bbc. Agenda?
    It’s not great, but it could be worse.

    Feels about right. 'It could be worse' and it will be worse, sadly.'

    The overall effect of todays revisions was a significant downrating of GDP since pre-Covid. Because we actually did worse in 2020 and 2021 than thought, the 2022 Q2 numbers were off a lower baseline.

    Only country in the G7 not to have fully recovered to pre-Covid GDP.

    I was surprised the BBC today was taking such a positive spin line. I suppose it does at least save us from official recession this quarter.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    algarkirk said:

    At some point Labour need such a plan covering tax, spend, borrowing and debt management. I think they may need a cleverer shadow chancellor than the present one.

    Would Starmer have the gumption to promote Ed Miliband to the post? He's one of the few at the top table, along with Cooper, to have served in cabinet before and he is certainly one of the more imaginative politicians (in a good way) currently active.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,226
    Former Chancellor Alistair Darling: "They just appear to be complete novices, suddenly being presented with a new toy to play with & they didn't understand what they were doing.
    (...)
    "The problems the govt are in now are entirely self-inflicted. This isn't a global problem."

    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1575755291857412097
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819
    ydoethur said:

    algarkirk said:

    At some point Labour need such a plan covering tax, spend, borrowing and debt management. I think they may need a cleverer shadow chancellor than the present one.

    Would Starmer have the gumption to promote Ed Miliband to the post? He's one of the few at the top table, along with Cooper, to have served in cabinet before and he is certainly one of the more imaginative politicians (in a good way) currently active.
    Cooper as Chancellor, Ed to sort out energy policy...
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 636

    HYUFD said:

    If party members had the final say Badenoch would now be Tory leader not Truss. It was Tory MPs who put Truss in the final 2.

    Would Badenoch be doing anything different from Truss though?
    No - far too naive and inexperienced

    If the party had their time back Sunak was the best candidate by some distance
    I don't think this is hindsight either. What we're seeing is the fevered alternative reality in which many Con members live in colliding with actual reality, hard. I wonder if lessons will be learned about leaderships elections - I suspect not; unlike the Corbyn case, Truss was very much part of the inner circle rather than an extremist outsider. In that sense it's closer to EdM - only potentially much worse; while similarly odd-seeming, Ed had a bit more substance.
  • Nationwide announce house prices were unchanged in September but 9.5% higher than last September

    These rises were unsustainable and this crisis has ended that and likely plunged many into negative equity for years to come

    We have been here before
This discussion has been closed.