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A LAB majority becomes the election betting favourite – politicalbetting.com
A LAB majority becomes the election betting favourite – politicalbetting.com
As can be seen from the betting chart Labour has never been favourite to have a majority at the next general election. We are in very new territory here. This comes after my post yesterday afternoon suggesting that this looked a value bet and one that I didn’t place!
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'Through the energy price guarantee the maximum [energy bill] will be £2,500'
The prime minister incorrectly told more than one station that there would be a maximum energy bill of £2,500 after the energy price cap is lifted on 1 October.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/63075931
Edit - bollocks, fourth like their fellow crazed nationalists.
This is less dim than it used to be, of course.
I blame grade inflation.
There are several risks. First, how possible is it in reality? Could you really hold down the NHS budget like this? David Cameron and George Osborne believed it was politically vital to exclude the health service from austerity. The political danger is that if you freeze the health budget, every problem the NHS experiences this winter (expected long before Truss entered No 10) and next year gets blamed on the Tories starving it of cash. The risk of the NHS falling over is perhaps even more dangerous to the government than the reaction to the mini-budget.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/for-unbowed-truss-theres-no-easy-way-out-d0g282dth
Nationwide Building Society: “The start of a prolonged fall in house prices”
“the staggering jump in mortgage rates finally is starting to weigh on buyer demand”
“The outlook is even gloomier, due to a further jump in mortgage rates”
https://twitter.com/SkyScottBeasley/status/1575743080279724032
Personally I'd love to see them become the official opposition and the few remaining Conservative MPs sent to one of Vlad's Gulags but I just can't see Team Davey getting above 50.
What say you?
Good morning, everyone.
Says there has been a “Particular dynamic” here in the U.K.
https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1575746288825827329
One thing is for sure, we need the loons cleared out of both the Tories and Labour. SKS seems to be sidelining the Momentum Brigade, but the quickest way to clean out the Tories is a stonking defeat at the General Election.
We need politicians, not Faragists and Corbynistas
Their vetting isn't the best as it is, or Layla Moran's - ahem - interesting past would have been exposed before it became an issue.
This may well be a problem for Labour too in a real landslide. They spent a lot of time up to 1997 carefully vetting all their candidates, and it did make a difference. But that was in the pre Twitter era.
So you pay my wages when I can’t work, you pay my heating bill when it goes up, you are responsible for my mortgage.
It’s going to take a lot of time and pain to realise that the magic money tree has been cut down and burnt to keep us warm. The markets have said enough.
We are heading back to reality, when people have to accept they are responsible for themselves. It’s going to be a hell of a detox.
Can someone get Hal O'Jen on the line?
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1575747066248282113
Heating is no longer cheap. Insulate and spend less on other things.
This is the real world.
I blame the markets for talking Britain down.
Discovering the flaw in this is left as a not-very-difficult exercise for the reader.
(Meanwhile, my Spidey Sense indicates that some schools are not only running short on permanent staff, but on temps as well. And it's still only September.)
https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1575743123111743488
Chris Giles
@ChrisGiles_
This meeting between @trussliz, @KwasiKwarteng and @OBR_UK is not remotely normal
Normal is one face-to-face meeting just before the Budget (otherwise email exchanges)
This looks like ministers wielding the thumbscrews to an independent economic institution
Not a good look
But saying its a cash cap will enrage all the people paying more than £2,500. Who likely have bigger hiuuses, and likely were Tory supporters. The rout in the Tory numbers - and we have polls of 19 / 20 / 21 point deficits not just the Zahaw Bomba - is from firmly middle ground voters fleeing. This will make that worse.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/09/29/liz-truss-embarked-course-sheer-madness-taking-bank-england1/
See Ken Clarke (too pro-EU) versus IDS.
Or Hunt (also not Leave enough) versus Johnson.
And now Sunak versus Truss.
The system's great from a betting perspective but the only time it seemed to deliver the best candidate was with Cameron. I do think Ken Clarke is also a bit of a weird exception because he's very competent indeed but being so pro-EU in a sceptical party was a non-starter.
Whilst I don't expect them to pick up every seat in succession, in a "fuck the Tories" election you get all kinds of interesting results. And well into triple digits are seats held by the LibDems as recently as 2010...
https://twitter.com/NIAbbot/status/1575423589284708352
Reports indicate 54% of schools have unfilled teaching vacancies. That rises to 81% in PRUs and special schools.
His school is at the stage where it can't function normally.
I am being bombarded with requests to go on supply which at the moment I am having no trouble resisting.
That's a long winded way of saying your Spidey Sense seems good to me...
How does anyone support that? Or sell that on the doorstep?
The problem with any wealth tax is designing it to hit the anyone but me mentality, and any party who even hints at taxing owner occupiers will plummet as fast as Truss and Kwarteng
Listening to Starmer on this subject yesterday his idea of a wealth tax is to tax divideds which in turn hits pensions
In theory there may be billions, but in practice it is unlikely anyone will come up with a wealth tax that produces anything like those who support one hope
And I would add @DavidL posts this morning are a sober reflection that the days of cheap money are over and we cannot just guarantee everyone will be shielded from energy and mortgage rises by the government
It is near certain Labour will win in 2024 but they are facing a poison chalice for years to come, indeed will the war with Russia be over by then ?
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1575749395756507137
For my 2 bedroom house with the cap and the bill payment I will be paying £90 less than last year for the same usage. Im sure there are millions of people living in small houses whose net energy costs will not now be going up compared to last winter.
How do people "spend less on other things" when they do not have a disposable income at all? The choice of heat or eat is not a false dichotomy - its reality for far too many people.
You'll be saying "get a better job" or "just work harder" next like a true Truss loon. I know you're not, but I don't think you understand lived reality for so many of your neighbours.
https://www.aljazeera.com/program/the-bottom-line/2022/9/29/could-the-ukraine-war-go-nuclear
I know alJazeera have been frequently criticised for all sorts of things, but I've read some pretty good reports from them about Ukraine. They are, of course, more or less neutral in this fight.
Thanks for sharing that.
Really interesting (and not surprised) to hear of Stewart’s experience of working with Kwasi. Apparently he would barely listen to any alternative view - sort of explains a lot.
If the party had their time back Sunak was the best candidate by some distance
Like a bubble in wallpaper, we can shift the unpleasantness but not easily make it vanish.
But, having seen the doom upon her, Truss has decided to run towards it.
At this rate it'll be fun working out who to vote for when the Great Extinction (GE) is upon us.
Uniquely the UK starts from a position of on paper being a rich country with very high standard of living expectations, but conversely an infrastructure and safety net which is stunted and crumbling. Everything costs an absolute bomb here either to buy or to fund, so "you'll just have to look after yourself" is how you see very large numbers of families and people slide into penury very quickly.
So whilst I can see the "we need to reshape the state" argument Trussians are exercised by, it isn't to smash the state to make it easier to exploit for the ultra-rich as they are doing. It is the opposite. Far too much money gets syphoned out of things like healthcare to management and away from actual medicine. We pay a fortune for mediocre services like water which can't even do the basics because of the vast sums taken from us and handed to a few shareholders.
You want to reshape the state and cut costs to make it affordable, AND have some kind of wealth tax? Stop the parasites sucking us dry...
(On a more positive note - I’ve got a good feeling about McLaren this weekend. Though I wouldn’t be surprised if Max dominates..interesting rumours swirling around that red bull broke the cost cap last season)
Don't know if we will get that because that requires productivity gains and we haven't had those for a long time..
I never thought at the time it would be such a sensible deal as it was considerably more than my previous one
If Dan's reputation as a slippery eel wasn't so well established I'm sure Mr Dacre and he would be having words
This is the problem you Trussites have. You can keep saying "the sky is green" as passionately as you like. Then people look up and say "but it's blue"...
Now we aren't poor but Mrs Eek cancelled a trip to Cornwall to visit friends because of the cost of fuel - and if she is doing something like that I dread to think what others are doing...
At some point Labour need such a plan covering tax, spend, borrowing and debt management. I think they may need a cleverer shadow chancellor than the present one.
Winning a majority or enough to govern after the GE looks like the easy bit to me.
Hmm. Unsure about McLaren. Though Norris did do well in Monaco.
The tighter your finances, the worse the impact of this. Once your entire disposable income has gone you are spending almost nothing in the economy. Not only is your life miserable, you are stopping the circulation of money which in turn makes business close and other people lose their jobs, they also stop spending, and the economic doom loop spirals ever lower.
All of that costs the government money. A big recession and a load of people out of work is expensive. So however bad the bill is to pay energy bills, it keeps people spending. Which keeps people in jobs and businesses trading...
Cap to 1 April 2022 £1277
Cap to 1 October 2022 £1971
Cap from 1 October 2022 £2500
That to me looks like a 150% increase in 18 months and that is with Government intervention...
Only country in the G7 not to have fully recovered to pre-Covid GDP.
I was surprised the BBC today was taking such a positive spin line. I suppose it does at least save us from official recession this quarter.
(...)
"The problems the govt are in now are entirely self-inflicted. This isn't a global problem."
https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1575755291857412097
These rises were unsustainable and this crisis has ended that and likely plunged many into negative equity for years to come
We have been here before