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The papers on Kwarteng’s vast tax cuts gamble – politicalbetting.com

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  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    The funny thing is:

    A lot of economists criticised the Treasury view post 2008 of loose monetary policy combined with tight fiscal policy being the right mix. So perhaps there was a case for tighter monetary policy and easing fiscal policy. This all feels a bit reckless though.
  • This Chancellor is unravelling with serious speed. He's out of his depth.

    20 point lead, nailed on.

    Kwasi Kwarteng, Quasi Chancellor
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    Cyclefree said:

    So - enrichment for the very few, especially Truss's campaign donors, and public and private impoverishment for everyone else. That seems to be the size of it.

    Even if GDP increases, they are vulnerable to the response made by that woman in the North East (I think) during the referendum campaign to someone on the Remain side: "That may be your GDP. It isn't my GDP."

    It is hard to avoid the conclusion that they are just doing what will benefit themselves and could not care less about anyone else. A growing economy (assuming this even happens) is worthless if only a very few get the rewards.

    From Johnson's "Fuck business" to Truss's "Fuck all of you".

    There are two factors on which to judge them.
    Do we get the growth?
    What do they do with that new economic reality?

    At the moment its just 'i dont think it will work and i think they'll be beastly'

    Its a bit like the talk of emergency bank rate meetings. If the BoE had done its job in the first place it wouldnt be necessary. They havent raised far or quick enough, they need to play catch up.
    "Do we get the growth?"


    This is not a budget. It is simply another "rob those at the bottom" move which is all the "Conservatives" have been doing since Cameron lost power.
    How did Boris "rob those at the bottom" ?
    Allowance freezes.

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So - enrichment for the very few, especially Truss's campaign donors, and public and private impoverishment for everyone else. That seems to be the size of it.

    Even if GDP increases, they are vulnerable to the response made by that woman in the North East (I think) during the referendum campaign to someone on the Remain side: "That may be your GDP. It isn't my GDP."

    It is hard to avoid the conclusion that they are just doing what will benefit themselves and could not care less about anyone else. A growing economy (assuming this even happens) is worthless if only a very few get the rewards.

    From Johnson's "Fuck business" to Truss's "Fuck all of you".

    There are two factors on which to judge them.
    Do we get the growth?
    What do they do with that new economic reality?

    At the moment its just 'i dont think it will work and i think they'll be beastly'

    Its a bit like the talk of emergency bank rate meetings. If the BoE had done its job in the first place it wouldnt be necessary. They havent raised far or quick enough, they need to play catch up.
    "Do we get the growth?"

    What growth stimulus is there? Where are the big infrastructure projects that would employ thousands and plough their salaries back into the economy? They could have announced tidal lagoons to generate greener electricity to prevent future cost of living crises. No help today but people would see the vision and look forward to the jobs that might actually arise.

    This is not a budget. It is simply another "rob those at the bottom" move which is all the "Conservatives" have been doing since Cameron lost power.
    They have announced tidal lagoons as part of the green policy

    This from the Observer in April

    Roger Falconer, emeritus professor of water and environmental engineering at Cardiff University, said large tracts of agricultural land in Britain were being covered in solar panels despite the lack of sunshine in winter, but reliable tidal power was not being properly exploited.

    “The problem with tidal lagoons and barrages is that you don’t get the power until they are virtually completed, and that can take years,” he said.

    Large-scale schemes offered value for money compared with other energy sources, he added, but the government needed a better funding model for such projects.

    A spokesperson for the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy said: “The government absolutely recognises the great potential of tidal power. This is why we have provided the marine energy sector with £175m of innovation and research and development funding, as well as ringfencing a £20m budget for tidal stream energy, for which bids are expected for Welsh projects.

    “The UK is a global leader in tidal power, to the extent that almost 50% of the world’s installed tidal stream capacity is in UK waters.”

    The Swansea Bay project was axed when Truss was Chief Sec of the Treasury.
    That was when energy costs did not justify the project

    This crisis has changed everything and tidal is now part of the mix
    So when gas prices go back down the project goes back on ice?
  • Cicero said:

    As with all budgets, mini or otherwise, there are two aspects: the economic and the political. The economic rationale for this package is questionable at best. The problems of the UK economy are structural. Productivity and investment are weak, infrastructure is under-invested and decaying. Small businesses are going to the wall and despite entrepreneurship being relatively strong in Britain, self-employment is increasingly unattractive. Red tape since Brexit has led to a significant fall in exports and the damage has been disproportionately on small businesses. Literally none of these problems are being addressed by this package. Even if the package were to stimulate some kind of short term consumption-led growth boom, this is unlikely to be sustainable, not least because what is being added on the fiscal side will be need to be offset, to a great degree, by the need for higher rates. Owing to the structural weaknesses of the economy, the depreciation of Sterling will not so much stimulate exports as import inflation. The Bank of England therefore will need to set rates increasingly high, and the sugar rush of this nominal fiscal stimulus will rapidly diminish. The fall in Cable yesterday was a sharp warning that an old fashioned Sterling crisis could be just around the corner.

    Politically the package is more or less a disaster. "Reverse Robin Hood" is a charge that will stick and it is a very bad look from an Old Etonian chancellor. The shameless Mail and Express can witter all they like, but "massive tax cuts for the rich" is charge that cuts through, because its true. After nearly a decade of Tory sturm and drang, the voters are getting tired. Even a "coalition of chaos" looks good compared to this Conservative chaos. Tories may deride SKS as a dull figure, but such dullness is increasingly reassuring compared to the reckless and incompetent policies outlined yesterday. Over the course of the next six months, I predict, the voters will make up their minds that change is needed and the Conservatives must go. The glum faces on the government benches yesterday shows that the Tories fear this and also know that the chances of this actually working are not good. Meanwhile, the risks being taken with the economy could torpedo their party for a generation.

    Incidentally I think these front pages show what is wrong with the media in the UK. The hand wringing from the left wing titles is fairly wimpish, but the bullish messages from the right wing press are just garbage. There is not even a pretense any more: it is open propaganda. How little self-respect the journalists and especially readers of these comics must now have to think such vacuous drivel has any kind of intellectual or moral strength.

    Brilliant post.
    Cicero would win the Poster of the Year competition if we still had one.

    If you've never caught his reports from the Baltic States you should try to catch up on them. They are good enough to go between hard covers.
    You want to go to bed with Cicero?
    Heard worse suggestions. ;)
  • I dont think in my whole life, I have ever wanted a Party to be so roundly humiliated at the next GE as this lot, the only problem is, I'm still not sure that will happen
  • This is a hostage to fortune from Labour. They don't seem to realise that they are using out of date forecasts.

    @UKLabour
    Under the Tories, Britain is facing the lowest growth in the G7 next year.

    Labour will get Britain growing again.


    https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1573305984281616384
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,156
    edited September 2022

    EPG said:

    Sandpit said:

    Here's a chart that shows the tax changes taking into account the frozen personal allowances (yellow line):

    image
    https://ifs.org.uk/articles/mini-budget-response

    Only those earning over £155k are actually seeing real tax cuts.

    So pretty much everyone earning over minimum wage, sees yesterday’s announcements reduce their tax bill compared to the previous status quo.
    Yeah - I think the IFS are being misleading for lefty social media clout. They are rolling all the post-Covid measures into the assessment of the minibudget.
    They're not even rolling all of them, they've cherrypicked the ones that help their case. To include the frozen tax threshold change but not include the rise in NI threshold change is odd.

    Yesterday's announcements should be judged on their own merits, but that wouldn't get lefty clickbait. The IFS are selling their integrity for retweets.
    Older PBers might remember a time when the IFS was regarded as right-wing and not a branch of Momentum. A time, say, before yesterday.
    Really? I think the IFS have been criticised by right wingers for a long time.

    Older PBers might remember a certain right wing MP being praised for having the gall to say: think the people in this country have had enough of experts, with organisations with acronyms saying that they know what is best and getting it consistently wrong.

    I've roundly condemned Paul Johnson's approach to economics for years!
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 2,181

    Cicero said:

    As with all budgets, mini or otherwise, there are two aspects: the economic and the political. The economic rationale for this package is questionable at best. The problems of the UK economy are structural. Productivity and investment are weak, infrastructure is under-invested and decaying. Small businesses are going to the wall and despite entrepreneurship being relatively strong in Britain, self-employment is increasingly unattractive. Red tape since Brexit has led to a significant fall in exports and the damage has been disproportionately on small businesses. Literally none of these problems are being addressed by this package. Even if the package were to stimulate some kind of short term consumption-led growth boom, this is unlikely to be sustainable, not least because what is being added on the fiscal side will be need to be offset, to a great degree, by the need for higher rates. Owing to the structural weaknesses of the economy, the depreciation of Sterling will not so much stimulate exports as import inflation. The Bank of England therefore will need to set rates increasingly high, and the sugar rush of this nominal fiscal stimulus will rapidly diminish. The fall in Cable yesterday was a sharp warning that an old fashioned Sterling crisis could be just around the corner.

    Politically the package is more or less a disaster. "Reverse Robin Hood" is a charge that will stick and it is a very bad look from an Old Etonian chancellor. The shameless Mail and Express can witter all they like, but "massive tax cuts for the rich" is charge that cuts through, because its true. After nearly a decade of Tory sturm and drang, the voters are getting tired. Even a "coalition of chaos" looks good compared to this Conservative chaos. Tories may deride SKS as a dull figure, but such dullness is increasingly reassuring compared to the reckless and incompetent policies outlined yesterday. Over the course of the next six months, I predict, the voters will make up their minds that change is needed and the Conservatives must go. The glum faces on the government benches yesterday shows that the Tories fear this and also know that the chances of this actually working are not good. Meanwhile, the risks being taken with the economy could torpedo their party for a generation.

    Incidentally I think these front pages show what is wrong with the media in the UK. The hand wringing from the left wing titles is fairly wimpish, but the bullish messages from the right wing press are just garbage. There is not even a pretense any more: it is open propaganda. How little self-respect the journalists and especially readers of these comics must now have to think such vacuous drivel has any kind of intellectual or moral strength.

    Brilliant post.
    Cicero would win the Poster of the Year competition if we still had one.

    If you've never caught his reports from the Baltic States you should try to catch up on them. They are good enough to go between hard covers.
    You want to go to bed with Cicero?
    Heard worse suggestions. ;)
    :open_mouth:
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,458
    edited September 2022
    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    Nigelb said:

    Xtrain said:

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting read here on PB this morning as people complain about how the Chancellor's tax cuts disincentivize them to work further because it hits hard when you are on £100K....

    Rather they’re pointing out that for a particular band of earners, there’s literally no point in increasing your earnings at the margin.
    No one’s asking us to feel sorry for them; they’re just complaining, rightly, about the economic inefficiency.

    Kwarteng could have fixed that instead of going for the headline rate cut.
    Might have meant fewer doctors working part time, too.

    None of it effects me, but I’m happy to acknowledge the point.
    I'm trying to get my head around people on £100,000 getting help with childcare.
    I’m not defending that.
    Just saying that even on the government’s own terms, it’s a shit budget.

    If they wanted to cut tax for the wealthiest, in order to encourage growth, there were more efficient ways to do it.
    It's presentation though isn't it. People understand a 5% drop in tax, not so much other stuff. The same reason Govts avoid increasing income tax rates but do increase NI, in particular the unlimited 1% and then 2% which was income tax in all but name (except for excluding pensioners).
    No, it’s not.
    They put this budget forward knowing it was going to be unpopular.
    Making it economically inefficient as well is just stupidity. It fails on its own terms.

    And people on £100k aren’t going to be convinced by the headlines; they do the maths.
    I agree making it economically inefficient is stupid, so why do you think they did that then if it isn't for headlines? The 5% drop in income tax rates isn't just aimed at people who pay it. It is a message to those who don't as well who believe in tax cuts. A 5% drop is an easy headline, messing around with other stuff that people don't understand is just lost.

    Just think of these examples:

    a) Announce a reduction in the basic rate to 19%, but don't do anything about the freeze in allowances
    b) Add 1% and then 2% (previously and unlimited) to NI but don't increase income tax rates.

    Clearly in both cases it would have been better to do the opposite, but that makes less good headlines.
  • Cicero said:

    As with all budgets, mini or otherwise, there are two aspects: the economic and the political. The economic rationale for this package is questionable at best. The problems of the UK economy are structural. Productivity and investment are weak, infrastructure is under-invested and decaying. Small businesses are going to the wall and despite entrepreneurship being relatively strong in Britain, self-employment is increasingly unattractive. Red tape since Brexit has led to a significant fall in exports and the damage has been disproportionately on small businesses. Literally none of these problems are being addressed by this package. Even if the package were to stimulate some kind of short term consumption-led growth boom, this is unlikely to be sustainable, not least because what is being added on the fiscal side will be need to be offset, to a great degree, by the need for higher rates. Owing to the structural weaknesses of the economy, the depreciation of Sterling will not so much stimulate exports as import inflation. The Bank of England therefore will need to set rates increasingly high, and the sugar rush of this nominal fiscal stimulus will rapidly diminish. The fall in Cable yesterday was a sharp warning that an old fashioned Sterling crisis could be just around the corner.

    Politically the package is more or less a disaster. "Reverse Robin Hood" is a charge that will stick and it is a very bad look from an Old Etonian chancellor. The shameless Mail and Express can witter all they like, but "massive tax cuts for the rich" is charge that cuts through, because its true. After nearly a decade of Tory sturm and drang, the voters are getting tired. Even a "coalition of chaos" looks good compared to this Conservative chaos. Tories may deride SKS as a dull figure, but such dullness is increasingly reassuring compared to the reckless and incompetent policies outlined yesterday. Over the course of the next six months, I predict, the voters will make up their minds that change is needed and the Conservatives must go. The glum faces on the government benches yesterday shows that the Tories fear this and also know that the chances of this actually working are not good. Meanwhile, the risks being taken with the economy could torpedo their party for a generation.

    Incidentally I think these front pages show what is wrong with the media in the UK. The hand wringing from the left wing titles is fairly wimpish, but the bullish messages from the right wing press are just garbage. There is not even a pretense any more: it is open propaganda. How little self-respect the journalists and especially readers of these comics must now have to think such vacuous drivel has any kind of intellectual or moral strength.

    Brilliant post.
    Cicero would win the Poster of the Year competition if we still had one.

    If you've never caught his reports from the Baltic States you should try to catch up on them. They are good enough to go between hard covers.
    You want to go to bed with Cicero?
    Heard worse suggestions. ;)
    Edit: Seriously, his original post got 17 likes and the list read like a who's who of PB's best posters. Eat your heart out, Casino. I did.
  • MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So - enrichment for the very few, especially Truss's campaign donors, and public and private impoverishment for everyone else. That seems to be the size of it.

    Even if GDP increases, they are vulnerable to the response made by that woman in the North East (I think) during the referendum campaign to someone on the Remain side: "That may be your GDP. It isn't my GDP."

    It is hard to avoid the conclusion that they are just doing what will benefit themselves and could not care less about anyone else. A growing economy (assuming this even happens) is worthless if only a very few get the rewards.

    From Johnson's "Fuck business" to Truss's "Fuck all of you".

    There are two factors on which to judge them.
    Do we get the growth?
    What do they do with that new economic reality?

    At the moment its just 'i dont think it will work and i think they'll be beastly'

    Its a bit like the talk of emergency bank rate meetings. If the BoE had done its job in the first place it wouldnt be necessary. They havent raised far or quick enough, they need to play catch up.
    "Do we get the growth?"


    This is not a budget. It is simply another "rob those at the bottom" move which is all the "Conservatives" have been doing since Cameron lost power.
    How did Boris "rob those at the bottom" ?
    Allowance freezes.

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So - enrichment for the very few, especially Truss's campaign donors, and public and private impoverishment for everyone else. That seems to be the size of it.

    Even if GDP increases, they are vulnerable to the response made by that woman in the North East (I think) during the referendum campaign to someone on the Remain side: "That may be your GDP. It isn't my GDP."

    It is hard to avoid the conclusion that they are just doing what will benefit themselves and could not care less about anyone else. A growing economy (assuming this even happens) is worthless if only a very few get the rewards.

    From Johnson's "Fuck business" to Truss's "Fuck all of you".

    There are two factors on which to judge them.
    Do we get the growth?
    What do they do with that new economic reality?

    At the moment its just 'i dont think it will work and i think they'll be beastly'

    Its a bit like the talk of emergency bank rate meetings. If the BoE had done its job in the first place it wouldnt be necessary. They havent raised far or quick enough, they need to play catch up.
    "Do we get the growth?"

    What growth stimulus is there? Where are the big infrastructure projects that would employ thousands and plough their salaries back into the economy? They could have announced tidal lagoons to generate greener electricity to prevent future cost of living crises. No help today but people would see the vision and look forward to the jobs that might actually arise.

    This is not a budget. It is simply another "rob those at the bottom" move which is all the "Conservatives" have been doing since Cameron lost power.
    They have announced tidal lagoons as part of the green policy

    This from the Observer in April

    Roger Falconer, emeritus professor of water and environmental engineering at Cardiff University, said large tracts of agricultural land in Britain were being covered in solar panels despite the lack of sunshine in winter, but reliable tidal power was not being properly exploited.

    “The problem with tidal lagoons and barrages is that you don’t get the power until they are virtually completed, and that can take years,” he said.

    Large-scale schemes offered value for money compared with other energy sources, he added, but the government needed a better funding model for such projects.

    A spokesperson for the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy said: “The government absolutely recognises the great potential of tidal power. This is why we have provided the marine energy sector with £175m of innovation and research and development funding, as well as ringfencing a £20m budget for tidal stream energy, for which bids are expected for Welsh projects.

    “The UK is a global leader in tidal power, to the extent that almost 50% of the world’s installed tidal stream capacity is in UK waters.”

    The Swansea Bay project was axed when Truss was Chief Sec of the Treasury.
    That was when energy costs did not justify the project

    This crisis has changed everything and tidal is now part of the mix
    So when gas prices go back down the project goes back on ice?
    Now it is part of the green mix I expect Swansea Bay to proceed but it will take years to complete
  • Best polling question ever from Opinium


    Britain aren’t playing at the World Cup in November.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited September 2022

    Cicero said:

    stjohn said:

    What is the "fall in Cable yesterday" that Cicero refers to?

    Cable is the technical name for the GBP/USD exchange rate.
    Technical? More of the City slang.

    It came about because the first telecom cable was laid between NY and London, so all the sterling exchange rates were set in London except “cable” which was the rate they were paying for sterling in New York
    Yes, each country used to set forex rates at their own exchange, which led to lag and arbitrage.

    The first real use of the undersea telegraph cable between the UK and US, was London and NY getting the £/$ exchange rate in real time. Ever since then, and even though every currency pair is now electronically tradeable in real time anywhere, the £/$ rate is still known as ‘cable’, after that first transatlantic cable in 1866.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268
    Jesus, stop fucking moaning
  • Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So - enrichment for the very few, especially Truss's campaign donors, and public and private impoverishment for everyone else. That seems to be the size of it.

    Even if GDP increases, they are vulnerable to the response made by that woman in the North East (I think) during the referendum campaign to someone on the Remain side: "That may be your GDP. It isn't my GDP."

    It is hard to avoid the conclusion that they are just doing what will benefit themselves and could not care less about anyone else. A growing economy (assuming this even happens) is worthless if only a very few get the rewards.

    From Johnson's "Fuck business" to Truss's "Fuck all of you".

    There are two factors on which to judge them.
    Do we get the growth?
    What do they do with that new economic reality?

    At the moment its just 'i dont think it will work and i think they'll be beastly'

    Its a bit like the talk of emergency bank rate meetings. If the BoE had done its job in the first place it wouldnt be necessary. They havent raised far or quick enough, they need to play catch up.
    "Do we get the growth?"

    What growth stimulus is there? Where are the big infrastructure projects that would employ thousands and plough their salaries back into the economy? They could have announced tidal lagoons to generate greener electricity to prevent future cost of living crises. No help today but people would see the vision and look forward to the jobs that might actually arise.

    This is not a budget. It is simply another "rob those at the bottom" move which is all the "Conservatives" have been doing since Cameron lost power.
    They have announced tidal lagoons as part of the green policy

    This from the Observer in April

    Roger Falconer, emeritus professor of water and environmental engineering at Cardiff University, said large tracts of agricultural land in Britain were being covered in solar panels despite the lack of sunshine in winter, but reliable tidal power was not being properly exploited.

    “The problem with tidal lagoons and barrages is that you don’t get the power until they are virtually completed, and that can take years,” he said.

    Large-scale schemes offered value for money compared with other energy sources, he added, but the government needed a better funding model for such projects.

    A spokesperson for the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy said: “The government absolutely recognises the great potential of tidal power. This is why we have provided the marine energy sector with £175m of innovation and research and development funding, as well as ringfencing a £20m budget for tidal stream energy, for which bids are expected for Welsh projects.

    “The UK is a global leader in tidal power, to the extent that almost 50% of the world’s installed tidal stream capacity is in UK waters.”

    The Swansea Bay project was axed when Truss was Chief Sec of the Treasury.
    And where are the schemes for the Mersey, the Humber, the Clyde and the Forth? We have a huge, untapped source of power and the cost of power is going to be an issue for years to come. Generating that power is an obvious PR win and we need to get moving because it is not a quick solution, but long term it would really help.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So - enrichment for the very few, especially Truss's campaign donors, and public and private impoverishment for everyone else. That seems to be the size of it.

    Even if GDP increases, they are vulnerable to the response made by that woman in the North East (I think) during the referendum campaign to someone on the Remain side: "That may be your GDP. It isn't my GDP."

    It is hard to avoid the conclusion that they are just doing what will benefit themselves and could not care less about anyone else. A growing economy (assuming this even happens) is worthless if only a very few get the rewards.

    From Johnson's "Fuck business" to Truss's "Fuck all of you".

    There are two factors on which to judge them.
    Do we get the growth?
    What do they do with that new economic reality?

    At the moment its just 'i dont think it will work and i think they'll be beastly'

    Its a bit like the talk of emergency bank rate meetings. If the BoE had done its job in the first place it wouldnt be necessary. They havent raised far or quick enough, they need to play catch up.
    "Do we get the growth?"

    What growth stimulus is there? Where are the big infrastructure projects that would employ thousands and plough their salaries back into the economy? They could have announced tidal lagoons to generate greener electricity to prevent future cost of living crises. No help today but people would see the vision and look forward to the jobs that might actually arise.

    This is not a budget. It is simply another "rob those at the bottom" move which is all the "Conservatives" have been doing since Cameron lost power.
    They have announced tidal lagoons as part of the green policy

    This from the Observer in April

    Roger Falconer, emeritus professor of water and environmental engineering at Cardiff University, said large tracts of agricultural land in Britain were being covered in solar panels despite the lack of sunshine in winter, but reliable tidal power was not being properly exploited.

    “The problem with tidal lagoons and barrages is that you don’t get the power until they are virtually completed, and that can take years,” he said.

    Large-scale schemes offered value for money compared with other energy sources, he added, but the government needed a better funding model for such projects.

    A spokesperson for the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy said: “The government absolutely recognises the great potential of tidal power. This is why we have provided the marine energy sector with £175m of innovation and research and development funding, as well as ringfencing a £20m budget for tidal stream energy, for which bids are expected for Welsh projects.

    “The UK is a global leader in tidal power, to the extent that almost 50% of the world’s installed tidal stream capacity is in UK waters.”

    The Swansea Bay project was axed when Truss was Chief Sec of the Treasury.
    That was when energy costs did not justify the project

    This crisis has changed everything and tidal is now part of the mix
    So when gas prices go back down the project goes back on ice?

    Now it is part of the green mix I expect Swansea Bay to proceed but it will take years to complete

    That's hopelessly naïve, Big_G. The same beancounters that chopped the project when gas prices were low approved it because they're high. When gas prices fall they'll chop it again as an unnecessary expense.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 2,181

    Best polling question ever from Opinium


    Britain aren’t playing at the World Cup in November.
    Alas neither is Scotland nor indeed Sweden... I shall be rooting for Croatia, as usual.
  • The IFS were great and lauded by the Tories here when they destroyed Labour's 2019 manifesto. No issues with them then!
  • This Chancellor is unravelling with serious speed. He's out of his depth.

    20 point lead, nailed on.

    Kwasi Kwarteng, Quasi Chancellor
    Kwazy Kwoissant more like.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    Cyclefree said:

    So - enrichment for the very few, especially Truss's campaign donors, and public and private impoverishment for everyone else. That seems to be the size of it.

    Even if GDP increases, they are vulnerable to the response made by that woman in the North East (I think) during the referendum campaign to someone on the Remain side: "That may be your GDP. It isn't my GDP."

    It is hard to avoid the conclusion that they are just doing what will benefit themselves and could not care less about anyone else. A growing economy (assuming this even happens) is worthless if only a very few get the rewards.

    From Johnson's "Fuck business" to Truss's "Fuck all of you".

    There are two factors on which to judge them.
    Do we get the growth?
    What do they do with that new economic reality?

    At the moment its just 'i dont think it will work and i think they'll be beastly'

    Its a bit like the talk of emergency bank rate meetings. If the BoE had done its job in the first place it wouldnt be necessary. They havent raised far or quick enough, they need to play catch up.
    "Do we get the growth?"

    What growth stimulus is there? Where are the big infrastructure projects that would employ thousands and plough their salaries back into the economy? They could have announced tidal lagoons to generate greener electricity to prevent future cost of living crises. No help today but people would see the vision and look forward to the jobs that might actually arise.

    This is not a budget. It is simply another "rob those at the bottom" move which is all the "Conservatives" have been doing since Cameron lost power.
    They have announced tidal lagoons as part of the green policy

    This from the Observer in April

    Roger Falconer, emeritus professor of water and environmental engineering at Cardiff University, said large tracts of agricultural land in Britain were being covered in solar panels despite the lack of sunshine in winter, but reliable tidal power was not being properly exploited.

    “The problem with tidal lagoons and barrages is that you don’t get the power until they are virtually completed, and that can take years,” he said.

    Large-scale schemes offered value for money compared with other energy sources, he added, but the government needed a better funding model for such projects.

    A spokesperson for the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy said: “The government absolutely recognises the great potential of tidal power. This is why we have provided the marine energy sector with £175m of innovation and research and development funding, as well as ringfencing a £20m budget for tidal stream energy, for which
    bids are expected for Welsh projects.

    “The UK is a global leader in tidal power, to the extent that almost 50% of the world’s installed tidal stream capacity is in UK waters.”

    That's just spin Big_G.
    What tidal lagoons - multi billion pound projects - have been 'announced' ?

    There's the small private sector Swansea project. What else ?

  • CiceroCicero Posts: 2,181

    Cicero said:

    Sandpit said:

    I blame Gordon Brown.

    (Just thought I'd chuck that in, as I haven't read it yet this morning).

    I’m sure Merkel, Macron, Sturgeon and Drakeford have played their dastardly part, mind.
    How Sturgeon reacts to the dropping of the Additional Rate in England, is going to be fun to watch.

    We might get to see in real-life, how high-earners behave in an environment where they can easily move jurisdictions.
    Ah, the latest Nat killing silver bullet plucked by dimwit Yoons, even Scottish LDs. I bet SLabbers are biting their lips to stop making the same point.




    Well I can understand that Nats might be having a few jitters here, because if Malcolm Bruce is right, the SNP have shot their own fox.

    I think we should watch Edinburgh property prices and see.
    ‘if Malcolm Bruce is right’

    Have a heart, it’s a bit early to have to cope with side splitting hysteria.
    As I say... "jitters".
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    This tax cut has gone down very badly

    Think of it as a chance to relive the glory years of Blair when the top rate of tax was 40%.
    Why don’t you actually address what I’m saying?

    If you want to win the next election you need to win over people that have now swapped to Labour. About 10% of them. How does this budget bring them back? In fact I’d say it tells them not to come back.

    And it loses the Red Wall as it is not what they voted for.

    Your responses seem to entirely be ignoring it and instead telling me how bad Blair was in multiple ways. He hasn’t been the PM since 2007.
    Without commenting on their overall electoral prospects, one thing a clear dividing line on tax policy will do is create shy Tory voters who tell everyone how terrible it is that they aren't paying more tax and then vote for them to avoid a Labour chancellor.
    But the issue is that this isn't that situation, the people who benefit are a very small section of society, the top 1% earners. Even if we extend that out to the aspirational 5% it's not enough to build an election winning coalition. A cut in the higher rate would have done what you're describing. The additional rate has been accepted for what it is and a top rate of 47% for earnings over £150k isn't the end of the world, people who earn that much aren't struggling, in fact they're doing pretty well.

    The adage is that everyone should benefit from the proceeds of growth, well right now 1% are benefiting from the proceeds of borrowing that the rest will have to pay for.
    Would you agree that making the UK a cheaper place to employ highly-paid people improves our competitiveness in the global service economy?
    Yes, that was true before or after the cut. That's why the economic multiplier is so poor. Compared to our competitor nations personal taxation is already low.
    If you compare the total income taxation in California to the UK for someone earning c. $500k, UK taxes were higher before the abolition of the 45% rate.
    Yes, but they have to live in America. That's a huge drawback for loads of people. Tax rates aren't the only bit of the equation and at 47% the top marginal rate was competitive enough, as we can see from the boom in City banking and law jobs over the last few years.
    That 'boom' in jobs is not nearly enough if we want to target a GDP per capita 50% higher.
    A higher GDP per capita doesn't necessarily feed through into higher median income, which is how living standards are measured. What we want is 50% higher median incomes. A 5% cut at the top does nothing to achieve that. Speaking as someone who benefits the vast majority of the money that people will save from their tax bill will end up invested or sitting idle in a bank account.
    Trouble is that making the great mass of the population more productive is slow and effortful- it's about education, training, infrastructure and stuff that takes time and investment. Much quicker to import some footloose global squillionaires and feast on the (substantial) crumbs from their table.

    Not particularly a partisan point, New Labour were upfront about doing the same. But it's a limited strategy.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    Relatively few organisations are acronyms. I'm no pedant but given Mr Gove's oh so proper tenure as secretary of state for education I'd like to think he knew the difference between an acronym and an abbreviation.
  • Leon said:

    Jesus, stop fucking moaning

    Did he moan? I thought he cried out to his Father.
  • Leon said:

    Jesus, stop fucking moaning

    You've just had a dream that you were having sex with Jesus?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited September 2022

    The IFS were great and lauded by the Tories here when they destroyed Labour's 2019 manifesto. No issues with them then!

    The IFS are the think tank of the Brownite/Sunakite Treasury economic orthodoxy.

    Many Conservatives are happy with plans that go against such failed orthodoxy, just as many Labourites were in 2019.
  • The IFS were great and lauded by the Tories here when they destroyed Labour's 2019 manifesto. No issues with them then!

    Bollocks. You may take an "enemy of my enemy is my friend" approach to life, but most of us don't. Paul Johnson and the IFS were criticised by low tax Conservatives even in 2019.

    He's got a strong bias towards high tax and spending which is shown through the IFS reports.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    Today are leading with a think tank opinion, everyone but very rich WORSE OFF after a £45B giveaway budget.

    Really?

    Journalism at its best. Every one who pays income tax or NI, is better off as a result of the measures announced yesterday.
    Not really, this budget will add hundreds of pounds per month onto mortgage costs abd extend our period of high inflation by an extra 6 months. The small saving on NI will be wiped out by these twin costs. Only people earning £250k or more will actually be better off IMO.
    How many people actually have variable rate mortgages? I was under the impression it was less than 2 million in the U.K. Its why interest rates are such a poor tool. If you rate is fixed, it has no effect until you need to re-fix.
    Something like 20% of mortgages are renewed every year, people who have fixed at 2% will now be looking at 6-7% before the end of the year is out. I'm extremely lucky that I've got a 10y fix at 2.7% which goes until 2031. Not many people will have that luxury. For some their monthly repayment will double leaving them thousands of pounds per year worse off.
    My renewal is up in December next year. Nobody that experiences that will vote Tory.

    No-one.
    February 2024 for me. My spreadsheet tells me that it will cost me £400 more a month at a 5% interest rate. It’s a bit harrowing…
  • ydoethur said:

    Best polling question ever from Opinium


    Nothing from Radiohead or The Clash?

    @rcs1000 will go Bursar.
    I'll be "representing Britain" with Hen Wlad fy Nhadau. The southern half, anyway.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,631
    Still no one addresses the elephant in the room. They complain about services being underfunded and how dare tax be cut.

    If all services were properly funded and paid for out of tax we would have the government taking about 90% of gdp as tax.

    Time to start asking what the state should be saying no we dont do that anymore. Sadly a conversation no politician seems to want to have.

    The answer is not tax more when half the country is struggling to make ends meet as it is. The answer is reduce spending.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268

    Leon said:

    Jesus, stop fucking moaning

    Did he moan? I thought he cried out to his Father.
    Eli, Eli, lama sabachthani!!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268

    Leon said:

    Jesus, stop fucking moaning

    You've just had a dream that you were having sex with Jesus?
    In a very real sense, my entire life can be seen as coition with the Divine
  • Pagan2 said:

    Still no one addresses the elephant in the room. They complain about services being underfunded and how dare tax be cut.

    If all services were properly funded and paid for out of tax we would have the government taking about 90% of gdp as tax.

    Time to start asking what the state should be saying no we dont do that anymore. Sadly a conversation no politician seems to want to have.

    The answer is not tax more when half the country is struggling to make ends meet as it is. The answer is reduce spending.

    ....close all the hospitals and schools?.....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    The budget in full - how do we get economic growth?

    1. Bribe those earning over £150K to work more hours by cutting their taxes.

    2. Threaten those on UC with benefit sanctions if they can't/won't work more hours.

    Seems fair to me. Not.

    The carrot and the stick.

    A carrot only for the top 1%.

    For the rest, just be grateful that the stick isn't bigger.
    It brings to mind one of my favourite quotations:

    "When the people are being beaten with a stick, they are not much happier if it is called the People's Stick."

    Mikhail Bakunin
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Jesus, stop fucking moaning

    Did he moan? I thought he cried out to his Father.
    Eli, Eli, lama sabachthani!!
    Ah, bowakawa pussy, pussy!
  • MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So - enrichment for the very few, especially Truss's campaign donors, and public and private impoverishment for everyone else. That seems to be the size of it.

    Even if GDP increases, they are vulnerable to the response made by that woman in the North East (I think) during the referendum campaign to someone on the Remain side: "That may be your GDP. It isn't my GDP."

    It is hard to avoid the conclusion that they are just doing what will benefit themselves and could not care less about anyone else. A growing economy (assuming this even happens) is worthless if only a very few get the rewards.

    From Johnson's "Fuck business" to Truss's "Fuck all of you".

    There are two factors on which to judge them.
    Do we get the growth?
    What do they do with that new economic reality?

    At the moment its just 'i dont think it will work and i think they'll be beastly'

    Its a bit like the talk of emergency bank rate meetings. If the BoE had done its job in the first place it wouldnt be necessary. They havent raised far or quick enough, they need to play catch up.
    "Do we get the growth?"


    This is not a budget. It is simply another "rob those at the bottom" move which is all the "Conservatives" have been doing since Cameron lost power.
    How did Boris "rob those at the bottom" ?
    Allowance freezes.

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So - enrichment for the very few, especially Truss's campaign donors, and public and private impoverishment for everyone else. That seems to be the size of it.

    Even if GDP increases, they are vulnerable to the response made by that woman in the North East (I think) during the referendum campaign to someone on the Remain side: "That may be your GDP. It isn't my GDP."

    It is hard to avoid the conclusion that they are just doing what will benefit themselves and could not care less about anyone else. A growing economy (assuming this even happens) is worthless if only a very few get the rewards.

    From Johnson's "Fuck business" to Truss's "Fuck all of you".

    There are two factors on which to judge them.
    Do we get the growth?
    What do they do with that new economic reality?

    At the moment its just 'i dont think it will work and i think they'll be beastly'

    Its a bit like the talk of emergency bank rate meetings. If the BoE had done its job in the first place it wouldnt be necessary. They havent raised far or quick enough, they need to play catch up.
    "Do we get the growth?"

    What growth stimulus is there? Where are the big infrastructure projects that would employ thousands and plough their salaries back into the economy? They could have announced tidal lagoons to generate greener electricity to prevent future cost of living crises. No help today but people would see the vision and look forward to the jobs that might actually arise.

    This is not a budget. It is simply another "rob those at the bottom" move which is all the "Conservatives" have been doing since Cameron lost power.
    They have announced tidal lagoons as part of the green policy

    This from the Observer in April

    Roger Falconer, emeritus professor of water and environmental engineering at Cardiff University, said large tracts of agricultural land in Britain were being covered in solar panels despite the lack of sunshine in winter, but reliable tidal power was not being properly exploited.

    “The problem with tidal lagoons and barrages is that you don’t get the power until they are virtually completed, and that can take years,” he said.

    Large-scale schemes offered value for money compared with other energy sources, he added, but the government needed a better funding model for such projects.

    A spokesperson for the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy said: “The government absolutely recognises the great potential of tidal power. This is why we have provided the marine energy sector with £175m of innovation and research and development funding, as well as ringfencing a £20m budget for tidal stream energy, for which bids are expected for Welsh projects.

    “The UK is a global leader in tidal power, to the extent that almost 50% of the world’s installed tidal stream capacity is in UK waters.”

    The Swansea Bay project was axed when Truss was Chief Sec of the Treasury.
    That was when energy costs did not justify the project

    This crisis has changed everything and tidal is now part of the mix
    So when gas prices go back down the project goes back on ice?
    Now it is part of the green mix I expect Swansea Bay to proceed but it will take years to complete
    No-one can know energy costs in 10, 50 or 100 years time, which is the payback period for the Swansea Barrage. The decision whether or not to build it will always be political (green, secure) rather than economic. But it runs the risk that by 2050 we'll be awash with other, cheaper sources of power and it will require yet more political decisions year on year whether to run, mothball or demolish it. It would become yet another open air museum, a haven for day trippers like the Woodbridge tide mill, an educational outing for future politicians.
  • So the same donkeys in blue rosettes who trudged through the lobby in favour of the NI rise are now supposed to do likewise for its reversal and keep a straight face.

    Does Rishi Rich have enough clout to muster a rebellion to defeat the government?
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Jesus, stop fucking moaning

    Did he moan? I thought he cried out to his Father.
    Eli, Eli, lama sabachthani!!
    Siarad cymraeg...?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So - enrichment for the very few, especially Truss's campaign donors, and public and private impoverishment for everyone else. That seems to be the size of it.

    Even if GDP increases, they are vulnerable to the response made by that woman in the North East (I think) during the referendum campaign to someone on the Remain side: "That may be your GDP. It isn't my GDP."

    It is hard to avoid the conclusion that they are just doing what will benefit themselves and could not care less about anyone else. A growing economy (assuming this even happens) is worthless if only a very few get the rewards.

    From Johnson's "Fuck business" to Truss's "Fuck all of you".

    There are two factors on which to judge them.
    Do we get the growth?
    What do they do with that new economic reality?

    At the moment its just 'i dont think it will work and i think they'll be beastly'

    Its a bit like the talk of emergency bank rate meetings. If the BoE had done its job in the first place it wouldnt be necessary. They havent raised far or quick enough, they need to play catch up.
    "Do we get the growth?"

    What growth stimulus is there? Where are the big infrastructure projects that would employ thousands and plough their salaries back into the economy? They could have announced tidal lagoons to generate greener electricity to prevent future cost of living crises. No help today but people would see the vision and look forward to the jobs that might actually arise.

    This is not a budget. It is simply another "rob those at the bottom" move which is all the "Conservatives" have been doing since Cameron lost power.
    They have announced tidal lagoons as part of the green policy

    This from the Observer in April

    Roger Falconer, emeritus professor of water and environmental engineering at Cardiff University, said large tracts of agricultural land in Britain were being covered in solar panels despite the lack of sunshine in winter, but reliable tidal power was not being properly exploited.

    “The problem with tidal lagoons and barrages is that you don’t get the power until they are virtually completed, and that can take years,” he said.

    Large-scale schemes offered value for money compared with other energy sources, he added, but the government needed a better funding model for such projects.

    A spokesperson for the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy said: “The government absolutely recognises the great potential of tidal power. This is why we have provided the marine energy sector with £175m of innovation and research and development funding, as well as ringfencing a £20m budget for tidal stream energy, for which bids are expected for Welsh projects.

    “The UK is a global leader in tidal power, to the extent that almost 50% of the world’s installed tidal stream capacity is in UK waters.”

    The Swansea Bay project was axed when Truss was Chief Sec of the Treasury.
    That was when energy costs did not justify the project

    This crisis has changed everything and tidal is now part of the mix
    So, a lack of foresight by Truss?

    It could have been running by now.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,088

    Looks like Vlad is reverting to the good old ways of vodka and gunpoint for troop morale.

    https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1573341467912929287?s=21&t=fZgySTIEv0WD2DH4ugNxjQ

    TBH the main part of his strategy appears to be to claim everything East of the Rhine as part of Russia, then threaten a global thermonuclear holocaust if the grown-ups won't give in to his toddler tantrums.

    Mobilisation is a sideshow. Round up a load of unwanted dissidents and ethnic minorities, send them off to the front in Winter dressed in nothing but their underpants and armed with children's play archery sets, and allow the cold and the Ukrainian army to murder them all for you.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,631

    Pagan2 said:

    Still no one addresses the elephant in the room. They complain about services being underfunded and how dare tax be cut.

    If all services were properly funded and paid for out of tax we would have the government taking about 90% of gdp as tax.

    Time to start asking what the state should be saying no we dont do that anymore. Sadly a conversation no politician seems to want to have.

    The answer is not tax more when half the country is struggling to make ends meet as it is. The answer is reduce spending.

    ....close all the hospitals and schools?.....
    Don't be stupid, why do left wing idiots always jump to the ridiculous. I am not asking for no state spending. I am asking if we have x money to spend then we prioritise what we do and do it well and drop the rest.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So - enrichment for the very few, especially Truss's campaign donors, and public and private impoverishment for everyone else. That seems to be the size of it.

    Even if GDP increases, they are vulnerable to the response made by that woman in the North East (I think) during the referendum campaign to someone on the Remain side: "That may be your GDP. It isn't my GDP."

    It is hard to avoid the conclusion that they are just doing what will benefit themselves and could not care less about anyone else. A growing economy (assuming this even happens) is worthless if only a very few get the rewards.

    From Johnson's "Fuck business" to Truss's "Fuck all of you".

    There are two factors on which to judge them.
    Do we get the growth?
    What do they do with that new economic reality?

    At the moment its just 'i dont think it will work and i think they'll be beastly'

    Its a bit like the talk of emergency bank rate meetings. If the BoE had done its job in the first place it wouldnt be necessary. They havent raised far or quick enough, they need to play catch up.
    "Do we get the growth?"

    What growth stimulus is there? Where are the big infrastructure projects that would employ thousands and plough their salaries back into the economy? They could have announced tidal lagoons to generate greener electricity to prevent future cost of living crises. No help today but people would see the vision and look forward to the jobs that might actually arise.

    This is not a budget. It is simply another "rob those at the bottom" move which is all the "Conservatives" have been doing since Cameron lost power.
    They have announced tidal lagoons as part of the green policy

    This from the Observer in April

    Roger Falconer, emeritus professor of water and environmental engineering at Cardiff University, said large tracts of agricultural land in Britain were being covered in solar panels despite the lack of sunshine in winter, but reliable tidal power was not being properly exploited.

    “The problem with tidal lagoons and barrages is that you don’t get the power until they are virtually completed, and that can take years,” he said.

    Large-scale schemes offered value for money compared with other energy sources, he added, but the government needed a better funding model for such projects.

    A spokesperson for the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy said: “The government absolutely recognises the great potential of tidal power. This is why we have provided the marine energy sector with £175m of innovation and research and development funding, as well as ringfencing a £20m budget for tidal stream energy, for which bids are expected for Welsh projects.

    “The UK is a global leader in tidal power, to the extent that almost 50% of the world’s installed tidal stream capacity is in UK waters.”

    The Swansea Bay project was axed when Truss was Chief Sec of the Treasury.
    That was when energy costs did not justify the project

    This crisis has changed everything and tidal is now part of the mix
    So, a lack of foresight by Truss?

    It could have been running by now.
    Not in 4 years it couldn't
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,088

    So the same donkeys in blue rosettes who trudged through the lobby in favour of the NI rise are now supposed to do likewise for its reversal and keep a straight face.

    Does Rishi Rich have enough clout to muster a rebellion to defeat the government?

    It would surely be better politics to rebel over the abolition of the 45% rate? Not that they will.
  • MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So - enrichment for the very few, especially Truss's campaign donors, and public and private impoverishment for everyone else. That seems to be the size of it.

    Even if GDP increases, they are vulnerable to the response made by that woman in the North East (I think) during the referendum campaign to someone on the Remain side: "That may be your GDP. It isn't my GDP."

    It is hard to avoid the conclusion that they are just doing what will benefit themselves and could not care less about anyone else. A growing economy (assuming this even happens) is worthless if only a very few get the rewards.

    From Johnson's "Fuck business" to Truss's "Fuck all of you".

    There are two factors on which to judge them.
    Do we get the growth?
    What do they do with that new economic reality?

    At the moment its just 'i dont think it will work and i think they'll be beastly'

    Its a bit like the talk of emergency bank rate meetings. If the BoE had done its job in the first place it wouldnt be necessary. They havent raised far or quick enough, they need to play catch up.
    "Do we get the growth?"


    This is not a budget. It is simply another "rob those at the bottom" move which is all the "Conservatives" have been doing since Cameron lost power.
    How did Boris "rob those at the bottom" ?
    Allowance freezes.

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So - enrichment for the very few, especially Truss's campaign donors, and public and private impoverishment for everyone else. That seems to be the size of it.

    Even if GDP increases, they are vulnerable to the response made by that woman in the North East (I think) during the referendum campaign to someone on the Remain side: "That may be your GDP. It isn't my GDP."

    It is hard to avoid the conclusion that they are just doing what will benefit themselves and could not care less about anyone else. A growing economy (assuming this even happens) is worthless if only a very few get the rewards.

    From Johnson's "Fuck business" to Truss's "Fuck all of you".

    There are two factors on which to judge them.
    Do we get the growth?
    What do they do with that new economic reality?

    At the moment its just 'i dont think it will work and i think they'll be beastly'

    Its a bit like the talk of emergency bank rate meetings. If the BoE had done its job in the first place it wouldnt be necessary. They havent raised far or quick enough, they need to play catch up.
    "Do we get the growth?"

    What growth stimulus is there? Where are the big infrastructure projects that would employ thousands and plough their salaries back into the economy? They could have announced tidal lagoons to generate greener electricity to prevent future cost of living crises. No help today but people would see the vision and look forward to the jobs that might actually arise.

    This is not a budget. It is simply another "rob those at the bottom" move which is all the "Conservatives" have been doing since Cameron lost power.
    They have announced tidal lagoons as part of the green policy

    This from the Observer in April

    Roger Falconer, emeritus professor of water and environmental engineering at Cardiff University, said large tracts of agricultural land in Britain were being covered in solar panels despite the lack of sunshine in winter, but reliable tidal power was not being properly exploited.

    “The problem with tidal lagoons and barrages is that you don’t get the power until they are virtually completed, and that can take years,” he said.

    Large-scale schemes offered value for money compared with other energy sources, he added, but the government needed a better funding model for such projects.

    A spokesperson for the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy said: “The government absolutely recognises the great potential of tidal power. This is why we have provided the marine energy sector with £175m of innovation and research and development funding, as well as ringfencing a £20m budget for tidal stream energy, for which bids are expected for Welsh projects.

    “The UK is a global leader in tidal power, to the extent that almost 50% of the world’s installed tidal stream capacity is in UK waters.”

    The Swansea Bay project was axed when Truss was Chief Sec of the Treasury.
    That was when energy costs did not justify the project

    This crisis has changed everything and tidal is now part of the mix
    So when gas prices go back down the project goes back on ice?
    Now it is part of the green mix I expect Swansea Bay to proceed but it will take years to complete
    No-one can know energy costs in 10, 50 or 100 years time, which is the payback period for the Swansea Barrage. The decision whether or not to build it will always be political (green, secure) rather than economic. But it runs the risk that by 2050 we'll be awash with other, cheaper sources of power and it will require yet more political decisions year on year whether to run, mothball or demolish it. It would become yet another open air museum, a haven for day trippers like the Woodbridge tide mill, an educational outing for future politicians.
    So, we should do nothing and hope a solution turns up? You should run for office.....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So - enrichment for the very few, especially Truss's campaign donors, and public and private impoverishment for everyone else. That seems to be the size of it.

    Even if GDP increases, they are vulnerable to the response made by that woman in the North East (I think) during the referendum campaign to someone on the Remain side: "That may be your GDP. It isn't my GDP."

    It is hard to avoid the conclusion that they are just doing what will benefit themselves and could not care less about anyone else. A growing economy (assuming this even happens) is worthless if only a very few get the rewards.

    From Johnson's "Fuck business" to Truss's "Fuck all of you".

    There are two factors on which to judge them.
    Do we get the growth?
    What do they do with that new economic reality?

    At the moment its just 'i dont think it will work and i think they'll be beastly'

    Its a bit like the talk of emergency bank rate meetings. If the BoE had done its job in the first place it wouldnt be necessary. They havent raised far or quick enough, they need to play catch up.
    "Do we get the growth?"

    What growth stimulus is there? Where are the big infrastructure projects that would employ thousands and plough their salaries back into the economy? They could have announced tidal lagoons to generate greener electricity to prevent future cost of living crises. No help today but people would see the vision and look forward to the jobs that might actually arise.

    This is not a budget. It is simply another "rob those at the bottom" move which is all the "Conservatives" have been doing since Cameron lost power.
    They have announced tidal lagoons as part of the green policy

    This from the Observer in April

    Roger Falconer, emeritus professor of water and environmental engineering at Cardiff University, said large tracts of agricultural land in Britain were being covered in solar panels despite the lack of sunshine in winter, but reliable tidal power was not being properly exploited.

    “The problem with tidal lagoons and barrages is that you don’t get the power until they are virtually completed, and that can take years,” he said.

    Large-scale schemes offered value for money compared with other energy sources, he added, but the government needed a better funding model for such projects.

    A spokesperson for the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy said: “The government absolutely recognises the great potential of tidal power. This is why we have provided the marine energy sector with £175m of innovation and research and development funding, as well as ringfencing a £20m budget for tidal stream energy, for which bids are expected for Welsh projects.

    “The UK is a global leader in tidal power, to the extent that almost 50% of the world’s installed tidal stream capacity is in UK waters.”

    The Swansea Bay project was axed when Truss was Chief Sec of the Treasury.
    That was when energy costs did not justify the project

    This crisis has changed everything and tidal is now part of the mix
    So, a lack of foresight by Truss?

    It could have been running by now.
    Not in 4 years it couldn't
    How soon will fracking make a difference?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,631
    TimS said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Still no one addresses the elephant in the room. They complain about services being underfunded and how dare tax be cut.

    If all services were properly funded and paid for out of tax we would have the government taking about 90% of gdp as tax.

    Time to start asking what the state should be saying no we dont do that anymore. Sadly a conversation no politician seems to want to have.

    The answer is not tax more when half the country is struggling to make ends meet as it is. The answer is reduce spending.

    That’s pretty declinist. There are several countries in our neighbourhood with healthy economic growth, higher incomes than us and well funded high quality public services paid for by general taxation. Most of Northern Europe for a start.

    Unless we believe Britain is uniquely badly placed to replicate this, why shouldn’t we take a leaf or two out of their books? Being outside the single market may be a handicap but it needn’t be a showstopper.
    Its not declinist in the least. I suspect that if you look at those countries with these high quality services that they have done exactly what I suggest. Prioritised where they spend the money have and made sure what they do is properly funded. Whereas here all we get is calls for the state to do more and more things then people whinging when things aren't properly funded as the money we have to spend gets spread over a wider and wider range of things.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    TimS said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Still no one addresses the elephant in the room. They complain about services being underfunded and how dare tax be cut.

    If all services were properly funded and paid for out of tax we would have the government taking about 90% of gdp as tax.

    Time to start asking what the state should be saying no we dont do that anymore. Sadly a conversation no politician seems to want to have.

    The answer is not tax more when half the country is struggling to make ends meet as it is. The answer is reduce spending.

    That’s pretty declinist. There are several countries in our neighbourhood with healthy economic growth, higher incomes than us and well funded high quality public services paid for by general taxation. Most of Northern Europe for a start.

    Unless we believe Britain is uniquely badly placed to replicate this, why shouldn’t we take a leaf or two out of their books? Being outside the single market may be a handicap but it needn’t be a showstopper.
    Other countries don't have the state take on unlimited healthcare, social and welfare liability for the whole population. That's the difference.
  • Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So - enrichment for the very few, especially Truss's campaign donors, and public and private impoverishment for everyone else. That seems to be the size of it.

    Even if GDP increases, they are vulnerable to the response made by that woman in the North East (I think) during the referendum campaign to someone on the Remain side: "That may be your GDP. It isn't my GDP."

    It is hard to avoid the conclusion that they are just doing what will benefit themselves and could not care less about anyone else. A growing economy (assuming this even happens) is worthless if only a very few get the rewards.

    From Johnson's "Fuck business" to Truss's "Fuck all of you".

    There are two factors on which to judge them.
    Do we get the growth?
    What do they do with that new economic reality?

    At the moment its just 'i dont think it will work and i think they'll be beastly'

    Its a bit like the talk of emergency bank rate meetings. If the BoE had done its job in the first place it wouldnt be necessary. They havent raised far or quick enough, they need to play catch up.
    "Do we get the growth?"

    What growth stimulus is there? Where are the big infrastructure projects that would employ thousands and plough their salaries back into the economy? They could have announced tidal lagoons to generate greener electricity to prevent future cost of living crises. No help today but people would see the vision and look forward to the jobs that might actually arise.

    This is not a budget. It is simply another "rob those at the bottom" move which is all the "Conservatives" have been doing since Cameron lost power.
    They have announced tidal lagoons as part of the green policy

    This from the Observer in April

    Roger Falconer, emeritus professor of water and environmental engineering at Cardiff University, said large tracts of agricultural land in Britain were being covered in solar panels despite the lack of sunshine in winter, but reliable tidal power was not being properly exploited.

    “The problem with tidal lagoons and barrages is that you don’t get the power until they are virtually completed, and that can take years,” he said.

    Large-scale schemes offered value for money compared with other energy sources, he added, but the government needed a better funding model for such projects.

    A spokesperson for the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy said: “The government absolutely recognises the great potential of tidal power. This is why we have provided the marine energy sector with £175m of innovation and research and development funding, as well as ringfencing a £20m budget for tidal stream energy, for which
    bids are expected for Welsh projects.

    “The UK is a global leader in tidal power, to the extent that almost 50% of the world’s installed tidal stream capacity is in UK waters.”

    That's just spin Big_G.
    What tidal lagoons - multi billion pound projects - have been 'announced' ?

    There's the small private sector Swansea project. What else ?

    There is a large tidal lagoon planned for Anglesey and Llandudno to Prestatyn
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So - enrichment for the very few, especially Truss's campaign donors, and public and private impoverishment for everyone else. That seems to be the size of it.

    Even if GDP increases, they are vulnerable to the response made by that woman in the North East (I think) during the referendum campaign to someone on the Remain side: "That may be your GDP. It isn't my GDP."

    It is hard to avoid the conclusion that they are just doing what will benefit themselves and could not care less about anyone else. A growing economy (assuming this even happens) is worthless if only a very few get the rewards.

    From Johnson's "Fuck business" to Truss's "Fuck all of you".

    There are two factors on which to judge them.
    Do we get the growth?
    What do they do with that new economic reality?

    At the moment its just 'i dont think it will work and i think they'll be beastly'

    Its a bit like the talk of emergency bank rate meetings. If the BoE had done its job in the first place it wouldnt be necessary. They havent raised far or quick enough, they need to play catch up.
    "Do we get the growth?"

    What growth stimulus is there? Where are the big infrastructure projects that would employ thousands and plough their salaries back into the economy? They could have announced tidal lagoons to generate greener electricity to prevent future cost of living crises. No help today but people would see the vision and look forward to the jobs that might actually arise.

    This is not a budget. It is simply another "rob those at the bottom" move which is all the "Conservatives" have been doing since Cameron lost power.
    They have announced tidal lagoons as part of the green policy

    This from the Observer in April

    Roger Falconer, emeritus professor of water and environmental engineering at Cardiff University, said large tracts of agricultural land in Britain were being covered in solar panels despite the lack of sunshine in winter, but reliable tidal power was not being properly exploited.

    “The problem with tidal lagoons and barrages is that you don’t get the power until they are virtually completed, and that can take years,” he said.

    Large-scale schemes offered value for money compared with other energy sources, he added, but the government needed a better funding model for such projects.

    A spokesperson for the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy said: “The government absolutely recognises the great potential of tidal power. This is why we have provided the marine energy sector with £175m of innovation and research and development funding, as well as ringfencing a £20m budget for tidal stream energy, for which
    bids are expected for Welsh projects.

    “The UK is a global leader in tidal power, to the extent that almost 50% of the world’s installed tidal stream capacity is in UK waters.”

    That's just spin Big_G.
    What tidal lagoons - multi billion pound projects - have been 'announced' ?

    There's the small private sector Swansea project. What else ?

    There is a large tidal lagoon planned for Anglesey and Llandudno to Prestatyn
    That's all plans, where's the money?
  • Leon said:

    Jesus, stop fucking moaning

    I thought the Romans sorted out his moaning?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,088
    TimS said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Still no one addresses the elephant in the room. They complain about services being underfunded and how dare tax be cut.

    If all services were properly funded and paid for out of tax we would have the government taking about 90% of gdp as tax.

    Time to start asking what the state should be saying no we dont do that anymore. Sadly a conversation no politician seems to want to have.

    The answer is not tax more when half the country is struggling to make ends meet as it is. The answer is reduce spending.

    That’s pretty declinist. There are several countries in our neighbourhood with healthy economic growth, higher incomes than us and well funded high quality public services paid for by general taxation. Most of Northern Europe for a start.

    Unless we believe Britain is uniquely badly placed to replicate this, why shouldn’t we take a leaf or two out of their books? Being outside the single market may be a handicap but it needn’t be a showstopper.
    Quite right, but easier said than done when it comes to convincing the electorate - much of which either has nothing more to give or is very, very selfish - to follow the example. The Scottish independence movement has been dangling the carrot of a Scandinavian future in front of its people for many years, but it's failing to tilt the odds in their favour in large part because nobody with the means to pay for it wants to do so. The Left South of the Border doesn't even try: remember that we had the extraordinary spectacle back in 2017 of the lot of them, even Socialist Worker types, bleating about the inequity of the Dementia Tax.

    The British economy is essentially constructed around me, me, me greed and property speculation and nothing else. It is going to take rather more than pointing at Denmark and saying it's rather nice to change that.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So - enrichment for the very few, especially Truss's campaign donors, and public and private impoverishment for everyone else. That seems to be the size of it.

    Even if GDP increases, they are vulnerable to the response made by that woman in the North East (I think) during the referendum campaign to someone on the Remain side: "That may be your GDP. It isn't my GDP."

    It is hard to avoid the conclusion that they are just doing what will benefit themselves and could not care less about anyone else. A growing economy (assuming this even happens) is worthless if only a very few get the rewards.

    From Johnson's "Fuck business" to Truss's "Fuck all of you".

    There are two factors on which to judge them.
    Do we get the growth?
    What do they do with that new economic reality?

    At the moment its just 'i dont think it will work and i think they'll be beastly'

    Its a bit like the talk of emergency bank rate meetings. If the BoE had done its job in the first place it wouldnt be necessary. They havent raised far or quick enough, they need to play catch up.
    "Do we get the growth?"

    What growth stimulus is there? Where are the big infrastructure projects that would employ thousands and plough their salaries back into the economy? They could have announced tidal lagoons to generate greener electricity to prevent future cost of living crises. No help today but people would see the vision and look forward to the jobs that might actually arise.

    This is not a budget. It is simply another "rob those at the bottom" move which is all the "Conservatives" have been doing since Cameron lost power.
    They have announced tidal lagoons as part of the green policy

    This from the Observer in April

    Roger Falconer, emeritus professor of water and environmental engineering at Cardiff University, said large tracts of agricultural land in Britain were being covered in solar panels despite the lack of sunshine in winter, but reliable tidal power was not being properly exploited.

    “The problem with tidal lagoons and barrages is that you don’t get the power until they are virtually completed, and that can take years,” he said.

    Large-scale schemes offered value for money compared with other energy sources, he added, but the government needed a better funding model for such projects.

    A spokesperson for the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy said: “The government absolutely recognises the great potential of tidal power. This is why we have provided the marine energy sector with £175m of innovation and research and development funding, as well as ringfencing a £20m budget for tidal stream energy, for which bids are expected for Welsh projects.

    “The UK is a global leader in tidal power, to the extent that almost 50% of the world’s installed tidal stream capacity is in UK waters.”

    The Swansea Bay project was axed when Truss was Chief Sec of the Treasury.
    That was when energy costs did not justify the project

    This crisis has changed everything and tidal is now part of the mix
    So, a lack of foresight by Truss?

    It could have been running by now.
    Not in 4 years it couldn't
    How soon will fracking make a difference?
    Fracking is a side show and I doubt it will get off the ground, so to speak
  • Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    Sandpit said:

    I blame Gordon Brown.

    (Just thought I'd chuck that in, as I haven't read it yet this morning).

    I’m sure Merkel, Macron, Sturgeon and Drakeford have played their dastardly part, mind.
    How Sturgeon reacts to the dropping of the Additional Rate in England, is going to be fun to watch.

    We might get to see in real-life, how high-earners behave in an environment where they can easily move jurisdictions.
    Ah, the latest Nat killing silver bullet plucked by dimwit Yoons, even Scottish LDs. I bet SLabbers are biting their lips to stop making the same point.




    Well I can understand that Nats might be having a few jitters here, because if Malcolm Bruce is right, the SNP have shot their own fox.

    I think we should watch Edinburgh property prices and see.
    ‘if Malcolm Bruce is right’

    Have a heart, it’s a bit early to have to cope with side splitting hysteria.
    As I say... "jitters".
    Am I right in thinking your foray into Scotpol before the last Holyrood election was along the standard 'things are looking dicey for the Nats' line?

    If you can't see that one section of a party saying that a budget is a disaster which damages the UK's reputation and the poorest in our society while another is saying 'haha, it's great cos it sticks it up the Nats' makes said party look like hypocritical fools, I can't really help you.
    Though tbf Unionist parties seemed to have accommodated that contradiction previously, with the electoral consequences we can all see today.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,631
    pigeon said:

    TimS said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Still no one addresses the elephant in the room. They complain about services being underfunded and how dare tax be cut.

    If all services were properly funded and paid for out of tax we would have the government taking about 90% of gdp as tax.

    Time to start asking what the state should be saying no we dont do that anymore. Sadly a conversation no politician seems to want to have.

    The answer is not tax more when half the country is struggling to make ends meet as it is. The answer is reduce spending.

    That’s pretty declinist. There are several countries in our neighbourhood with healthy economic growth, higher incomes than us and well funded high quality public services paid for by general taxation. Most of Northern Europe for a start.

    Unless we believe Britain is uniquely badly placed to replicate this, why shouldn’t we take a leaf or two out of their books? Being outside the single market may be a handicap but it needn’t be a showstopper.
    Quite right, but easier said than done when it comes to convincing the electorate - much of which either has nothing more to give or is very, very selfish - to follow the example. The Scottish independence movement has been dangling the carrot of a Scandinavian future in front of its people for many years, but it's failing to tilt the odds in their favour in large part because nobody with the means to pay for it wants to do so. The Left South of the Border doesn't even try: remember that we had the extraordinary spectacle back in 2017 of the lot of them, even Socialist Worker types, bleating about the inequity of the Dementia Tax.

    The British economy is essentially constructed around me, me, me greed and property speculation and nothing else. It is going to take rather more than pointing at Denmark and saying it's rather nice to change that.
    I think it wrong to complain of greed. Many in the country struggle to make their paycheck last to the end of the month as is. So you get a policy like 1% on income tax to improve education, lib dem I think, and these people realise they will have even less money to stretch over a month. It is not greedy to want to feed your family.

    1% on tax probably hardly impacts on most of this board. To a struggling family however it can be the difference between just managing and going under if they take home 10£ less a month and there are millions of families in that situation
  • Fascinating thread:

    Professor Olga Chyzh
    @olga_chyzh
    Declaring mobilization was a risky gamble that may lead to Putin’s demise. But not because it is unpopular with the public.

    https://twitter.com/olga_chyzh/status/1573307447716069377

  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,003

    ydoethur said:

    Best polling question ever from Opinium


    Nothing from Radiohead or The Clash?

    @rcs1000 will go Bursar.
    I'll be "representing Britain" with Hen Wlad fy Nhadau. The southern half, anyway.
    Working Class Hero - John Lennon
  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651
    edited September 2022
    Should we expect the agencies to cut Britain's credit rating next week?

    Given that some who seem knowledgeable and experienced are predicting that the government will find it hard to raise loans and even that a bond issue might fail, this seems the logical conclusion.

    I'm wondering how the budget is going down in Basel.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,760
    edited September 2022

    This Chancellor is unravelling with serious speed. He's out of his depth.

    20 point lead, nailed on.

    Kwasi Kwarteng, Quasi Chancellor
    The puns almost write themselves.

    Kwasi Chancellor.

    Kwasi tax cuts

    Kwasi Tory

    Economy Trussed Up

    Truss and Kwasi take a pounding
  • OT Emma "sicknote" Raducanu has retired hurt in her semi-final of the Korea Open, with a "glute problem". That's the fourth time in just over a year, and that does not count where she just lost through carrying an injury or did not even make the start.

    I should apply for the job of rubbing down lady tennis players. I surely couldn't be worse than the current incumbent.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,169
    MaxPB said:

    TimS said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Still no one addresses the elephant in the room. They complain about services being underfunded and how dare tax be cut.

    If all services were properly funded and paid for out of tax we would have the government taking about 90% of gdp as tax.

    Time to start asking what the state should be saying no we dont do that anymore. Sadly a conversation no politician seems to want to have.

    The answer is not tax more when half the country is struggling to make ends meet as it is. The answer is reduce spending.

    That’s pretty declinist. There are several countries in our neighbourhood with healthy economic growth, higher incomes than us and well funded high quality public services paid for by general taxation. Most of Northern Europe for a start.

    Unless we believe Britain is uniquely badly placed to replicate this, why shouldn’t we take a leaf or two out of their books? Being outside the single market may be a handicap but it needn’t be a showstopper.
    Other countries don't have the state take on unlimited healthcare, social and welfare liability for the whole population. That's the difference.
    Countries vary, a number spend as much or more in the public sector on healthcare as the UK, and many spend more in total on healthcare (including the ridiculous USA where the market is totally supplier biased - large powerful providers, small weak purchasers).

    Useful stats here:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthcaresystem/articles/howdoesukhealthcarespendingcomparewithothercountries/2019-08-29
  • RattersRatters Posts: 756
    A question for Tories:

    Do you think if we had a proper Black Wednesday type currency or sovereign debt crisis, would the Conservative MPs act quickly to remove Truss from office and put Sunak back in charge?
  • Pagan2 said:

    Still no one addresses the elephant in the room. They complain about services being underfunded and how dare tax be cut.

    If all services were properly funded and paid for out of tax we would have the government taking about 90% of gdp as tax.

    Time to start asking what the state should be saying no we dont do that anymore. Sadly a conversation no politician seems to want to have.

    The answer is not tax more when half the country is struggling to make ends meet as it is. The answer is reduce spending.

    So how do you reduce spending on interest on government debt?
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 2,804

    Best polling question ever from Opinium


    I still like Billy Connoly's suggestion that we change the national anthem to The Archers theme tune.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,760

    Leon said:

    Jesus, stop fucking moaning

    I thought the Romans sorted out his moaning?
    Leon meanwhile spends so much time moaning he gets whores.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    Pagan2 said:

    Still no one addresses the elephant in the room. They complain about services being underfunded and how dare tax be cut.

    If all services were properly funded and paid for out of tax we would have the government taking about 90% of gdp as tax.

    Time to start asking what the state should be saying no we dont do that anymore. Sadly a conversation no politician seems to want to have.

    The answer is not tax more when half the country is struggling to make ends meet as it is. The answer is reduce spending.

    So how do you reduce spending on interest on government debt?
    You have the BoE buy your debt and not charge you. But there is this issue with inflation...
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    A lot of talk about whether Europeans should accept Russians coming over the border. In particular young men of the Captain Darling variety. However we know Putin's preference is for sending non-whites into the meat grinder so perhaps we should look elsewhere.

    Please let's hear it for the former President of Mongolia Mongol Tsakhia Elberdorj who's said Mongolia will welcome Russian mongels with open arms if they want to flee there as he called on Putin to end the war.

    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1573415461592891392
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    DavidL said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Still no one addresses the elephant in the room. They complain about services being underfunded and how dare tax be cut.

    If all services were properly funded and paid for out of tax we would have the government taking about 90% of gdp as tax.

    Time to start asking what the state should be saying no we dont do that anymore. Sadly a conversation no politician seems to want to have.

    The answer is not tax more when half the country is struggling to make ends meet as it is. The answer is reduce spending.

    So how do you reduce spending on interest on government debt?
    You have the BoE buy your debt and not charge you. But there is this issue with inflation...
    The old quantitative cheating fraud
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,631

    Pagan2 said:

    Still no one addresses the elephant in the room. They complain about services being underfunded and how dare tax be cut.

    If all services were properly funded and paid for out of tax we would have the government taking about 90% of gdp as tax.

    Time to start asking what the state should be saying no we dont do that anymore. Sadly a conversation no politician seems to want to have.

    The answer is not tax more when half the country is struggling to make ends meet as it is. The answer is reduce spending.

    So how do you reduce spending on interest on government debt?
    You can't without generating a surplus. The first step to generating a surplus is to stop spending on stuff that is not a priority. All governements of whatever colour waste inordinate amounts of money on stupid shit. I can cite an example of a project I worked on.

    DFT = lets make a transport portal where people can plan journeys by car/train or bus.

    cost 8 million

    At a time when we already had AA autoroute, sat navs, feature phones that had route planners, bus journey planners were existing supplied by the private sector and train journey planners.

    What the hell was the point of that project.

    Ok only 8 million but 8 million that didnt have to be spent
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    Ratters said:

    A question for Tories:

    Do you think if we had a proper Black Wednesday type currency or sovereign debt crisis, would the Conservative MPs act quickly to remove Truss from office and put Sunak back in charge?

    Black Wednesday happened because we had a band within which Sterling had to be protected and the markets broke the Bank. When we don't have that it is hard to see the kind of crisis that was. My guess is that although they are nervous Tories will be delighted to have a government with a sense of purpose again after the last 9 months of chaos and drift. That's at least where I am.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,343
    edited September 2022
    Pagan2 said:

    Still no one addresses the elephant in the room. They complain about services being underfunded and how dare tax be cut.

    If all services were properly funded and paid for out of tax we would have the government taking about 90% of gdp as tax.

    Time to start asking what the state should be saying no we dont do that anymore. Sadly a conversation no politician seems to want to have.

    The answer is not tax more when half the country is struggling to make ends meet as it is. The answer is reduce spending.

    The really huge bits of state managed expenditure go on:

    pensions
    social security
    NHS
    debt interest
    defence
    education
    justice/police/prisons
    local government services.

    Debt interest will steadily rise unless we take a North Korean approach to liabilities.

    In each other area above there is gigantic pressure massively to increase expenditure. Add social care to the list too. I can't think of a single big area where people are generally saying 'enough' or 'too much'.

    Can you (or anyone) suggest where the first, say, £200 bn reductions will be found?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618

    Cyclefree said:

    So - enrichment for the very few, especially Truss's campaign donors, and public and private impoverishment for everyone else. That seems to be the size of it.

    Even if GDP increases, they are vulnerable to the response made by that woman in the North East (I think) during the referendum campaign to someone on the Remain side: "That may be your GDP. It isn't my GDP."

    It is hard to avoid the conclusion that they are just doing what will benefit themselves and could not care less about anyone else. A growing economy (assuming this even happens) is worthless if only a very few get the rewards.

    From Johnson's "Fuck business" to Truss's "Fuck all of you".

    There are two factors on which to judge them.
    Do we get the growth?
    What do they do with that new economic reality?

    At the moment its just 'i dont think it will work and i think they'll be beastly'

    Its a bit like the talk of emergency bank rate meetings. If the BoE had done its job in the first place it wouldnt be necessary. They havent raised far or quick enough, they need to play catch up.
    "Do we get the growth?"

    What growth stimulus is there? Where are the big infrastructure projects that would employ thousands and plough their salaries back into the economy? They could have announced tidal lagoons to generate greener electricity to prevent future cost of living crises. No help today but people would see the vision and look forward to the jobs that might actually arise.

    This is not a budget. It is simply another "rob those at the bottom" move which is all the "Conservatives" have been doing since Cameron lost power.
    They have announced tidal lagoons as part of the green policy

    This from the Observer in April

    Roger Falconer, emeritus professor of water and environmental engineering at Cardiff University, said large tracts of agricultural land in Britain were being covered in solar panels despite the lack of sunshine in winter, but reliable tidal power was not being properly exploited.

    “The problem with tidal lagoons and barrages is that you don’t get the power until they are virtually completed, and that can take years,” he said.

    Large-scale schemes offered value for money compared with other energy sources, he added, but the government needed a better funding model for such projects.

    A spokesperson for the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy said: “The government absolutely recognises the great potential of tidal power. This is why we have provided the marine energy sector with £175m of innovation and research and development funding, as well as ringfencing a £20m budget for tidal stream energy, for which bids are expected for Welsh projects.

    “The UK is a global leader in tidal power, to the extent that almost 50% of the world’s installed

    tidal stream capacity is in UK waters.”



    Falconer to resign?

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,760
    This thread has

    devalued 11%

  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,003
    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    TimS said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Still no one addresses the elephant in the room. They complain about services being underfunded and how dare tax be cut.

    If all services were properly funded and paid for out of tax we would have the government taking about 90% of gdp as tax.

    Time to start asking what the state should be saying no we dont do that anymore. Sadly a conversation no politician seems to want to have.

    The answer is not tax more when half the country is struggling to make ends meet as it is. The answer is reduce spending.

    That’s pretty declinist. There are several countries in our neighbourhood with healthy economic growth, higher incomes than us and well funded high quality public services paid for by general taxation. Most of Northern Europe for a start.

    Unless we believe Britain is uniquely badly placed to replicate this, why shouldn’t we take a leaf or two out of their books? Being outside the single market may be a handicap but it needn’t be a showstopper.
    Other countries don't have the state take on unlimited healthcare, social and welfare liability for the whole population. That's the difference.
    Countries vary, a number spend as much or more in the public sector on healthcare as the UK, and many spend more in total on healthcare (including the ridiculous USA where the market is totally supplier biased - large powerful providers, small weak purchasers).

    Useful stats here:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthcaresystem/articles/howdoesukhealthcarespendingcomparewithothercountries/2019-08-29
    Those number include private spending.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 756
    DavidL said:

    Ratters said:

    A question for Tories:

    Do you think if we had a proper Black Wednesday type currency or sovereign debt crisis, would the Conservative MPs act quickly to remove Truss from office and put Sunak back in charge?

    Black Wednesday happened because we had a band within which Sterling had to be protected and the markets broke the Bank. When we don't have that it is hard to see the kind of crisis that was. My guess is that although they are nervous Tories will be delighted to have a government with a sense of purpose again after the last 9 months of chaos and drift. That's at least where I am.
    This crisis is we're borrowing more than the market wants to lend us, and has no confidence in the government.

    Different in nature but the impact could be similar.
  • MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So - enrichment for the very few, especially Truss's campaign donors, and public and private impoverishment for everyone else. That seems to be the size of it.

    Even if GDP increases, they are vulnerable to the response made by that woman in the North East (I think) during the referendum campaign to someone on the Remain side: "That may be your GDP. It isn't my GDP."

    It is hard to avoid the conclusion that they are just doing what will benefit themselves and could not care less about anyone else. A growing economy (assuming this even happens) is worthless if only a very few get the rewards.

    From Johnson's "Fuck business" to Truss's "Fuck all of you".

    There are two factors on which to judge them.
    Do we get the growth?
    What do they do with that new economic reality?

    At the moment its just 'i dont think it will work and i think they'll be beastly'

    Its a bit like the talk of emergency bank rate meetings. If the BoE had done its job in the first place it wouldnt be necessary. They havent raised far or quick enough, they need to play catch up.
    "Do we get the growth?"


    This is not a budget. It is simply another "rob those at the bottom" move which is all the "Conservatives" have been doing since Cameron lost power.
    How did Boris "rob those at the bottom" ?
    Allowance freezes.

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So - enrichment for the very few, especially Truss's campaign donors, and public and private impoverishment for everyone else. That seems to be the size of it.

    Even if GDP increases, they are vulnerable to the response made by that woman in the North East (I think) during the referendum campaign to someone on the Remain side: "That may be your GDP. It isn't my GDP."

    It is hard to avoid the conclusion that they are just doing what will benefit themselves and could not care less about anyone else. A growing economy (assuming this even happens) is worthless if only a very few get the rewards.

    From Johnson's "Fuck business" to Truss's "Fuck all of you".

    There are two factors on which to judge them.
    Do we get the growth?
    What do they do with that new economic reality?

    At the moment its just 'i dont think it will work and i think they'll be beastly'

    Its a bit like the talk of emergency bank rate meetings. If the BoE had done its job in the first place it wouldnt be necessary. They havent raised far or quick enough, they need to play catch up.
    "Do we get the growth?"

    What growth stimulus is there? Where are the big infrastructure projects that would employ thousands and plough their salaries back into the economy? They could have announced tidal lagoons to generate greener electricity to prevent future cost of living crises. No help today but people would see the vision and look forward to the jobs that might actually arise.

    This is not a budget. It is simply another "rob those at the bottom" move which is all the "Conservatives" have been doing since Cameron lost power.
    They have announced tidal lagoons as part of the green policy

    This from the Observer in April

    Roger Falconer, emeritus professor of water and environmental engineering at Cardiff University, said large tracts of agricultural land in Britain were being covered in solar panels despite the lack of sunshine in winter, but reliable tidal power was not being properly exploited.

    “The problem with tidal lagoons and barrages is that you don’t get the power until they are virtually completed, and that can take years,” he said.

    Large-scale schemes offered value for money compared with other energy sources, he added, but the government needed a better funding model for such projects.

    A spokesperson for the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy said: “The government absolutely recognises the great potential of tidal power. This is why we have provided the marine energy sector with £175m of innovation and research and development funding, as well as ringfencing a £20m budget for tidal stream energy, for which bids are expected for Welsh projects.

    “The UK is a global leader in tidal power, to the extent that almost 50% of the world’s installed tidal stream capacity is in UK waters.”

    The Swansea Bay project was axed when Truss was Chief Sec of the Treasury.
    That was when energy costs did not justify the project

    This crisis has changed everything and tidal is now part of the mix
    So when gas prices go back down the project goes back on ice?
    Now it is part of the green mix I expect Swansea Bay to proceed but it will take years to complete
    No-one can know energy costs in 10, 50 or 100 years time, which is the payback period for the Swansea Barrage. The decision whether or not to build it will always be political (green, secure) rather than economic. But it runs the risk that by 2050 we'll be awash with other, cheaper sources of power and it will require yet more political decisions year on year whether to run, mothball or demolish it. It would become yet another open air museum, a haven for day trippers like the Woodbridge tide mill, an educational outing for future politicians.
    So, we should do nothing and hope a solution turns up? You should run for office.....
    My point is that it would be a political decision taken for political reasons, rightly or wrongly, and it's a mistake to dress it up as a financial decision (by Liz Truss) when neither we nor she can't know the key parameters. Like everyone else I'm sympathetic to the idea of green, secure energy with which to bake my apple pie but I'm resistant to arguments about how much money it will save.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,631
    algarkirk said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Still no one addresses the elephant in the room. They complain about services being underfunded and how dare tax be cut.

    If all services were properly funded and paid for out of tax we would have the government taking about 90% of gdp as tax.

    Time to start asking what the state should be saying no we dont do that anymore. Sadly a conversation no politician seems to want to have.

    The answer is not tax more when half the country is struggling to make ends meet as it is. The answer is reduce spending.

    The really huge bits of state managed expenditure go on:

    pensions
    social security
    NHS
    debt interest
    defence
    education
    justice/police/prisons
    local government services.

    Debt interest will steadily rise unless we take a North Korean approach to liabilities.

    In each other area above there is gigantic pressure massively to increase expenditure. Add social care to the list too. I can't thinkmof a single big area where people are generally saying 'enough' or 'too much'.

    Can you (or anyone) suggest where the first, say, £200 bn reductions will be found?
    For a start while those area's are high expenditure doesn't mean they should do everything they do now.

    Defence for a start we could save a huge amount on procurement by just buying off the shelf stuff rather than creating custom shit just because.

    NHS - last night I suggested a cap on lifetime health care expense, would set it at the average to start with and people can take out insurance to cover any over that. Also services such as tattoo removal should not be available. I would also refuse IVF on the NHS, a round of IVF costs about 10k....if you cant afford to save up 10k once a year to pay for it can you really afford the child as raising a child is likely to cost that a year in any case plus we have a lot of kids crying out for adoption.

    I am sure others could come up with savings in all the other areas as well
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,169
    Ratters said:

    A question for Tories:

    Do you think if we had a proper Black Wednesday type currency or sovereign debt crisis, would the Conservative MPs act quickly to remove Truss from office and put Sunak back in charge?

    Not a Tory, but I don’t think so. I get the feeling many MPs are becoming resigned to defeat at the next election and would probably rather see Truss take the blame for this than try yet another throw of the dice. And who on earth would replace her? Rishi?
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    Things I liked about the Special Financial Operation:

    Reversal of the National Insurance rise.

    Things I didnt like:

    Removal of 45% tax rate, stamp duty changes, income tax rate cut, corporation tax rise cancellation.

    Not sure about:

    Bankers bonuses, universal credit rules tightening, IR35.

    Political big decisions ought to be either necessary/effective or popular/election-winning. I think Truss/Kwarteng have managed to come up with something that is neither, which is quite a feat of ineptitude.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,169
    edited September 2022
    WillG said:

    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    TimS said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Still no one addresses the elephant in the room. They complain about services being underfunded and how dare tax be cut.

    If all services were properly funded and paid for out of tax we would have the government taking about 90% of gdp as tax.

    Time to start asking what the state should be saying no we dont do that anymore. Sadly a conversation no politician seems to want to have.

    The answer is not tax more when half the country is struggling to make ends meet as it is. The answer is reduce spending.

    That’s pretty declinist. There are several countries in our neighbourhood with healthy economic growth, higher incomes than us and well funded high quality public services paid for by general taxation. Most of Northern Europe for a start.

    Unless we believe Britain is uniquely badly placed to replicate this, why shouldn’t we take a leaf or two out of their books? Being outside the single market may be a handicap but it needn’t be a showstopper.
    Other countries don't have the state take on unlimited healthcare, social and welfare liability for the whole population. That's the difference.
    Countries vary, a number spend as much or more in the public sector on healthcare as the UK, and many spend more in total on healthcare (including the ridiculous USA where the market is totally supplier biased - large powerful providers, small weak purchasers).

    Useful stats here:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthcaresystem/articles/howdoesukhealthcarespendingcomparewithothercountries/2019-08-29
    Those number include private spending.

    Of course they do. That’s why the US is so expensive. Kind of the point of my post.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    Sandpit said:

    I blame Gordon Brown.

    (Just thought I'd chuck that in, as I haven't read it yet this morning).

    I’m sure Merkel, Macron, Sturgeon and Drakeford have played their dastardly part, mind.
    How Sturgeon reacts to the dropping of the Additional Rate in England, is going to be fun to watch.

    We might get to see in real-life, how high-earners behave in an environment where they can easily move jurisdictions.
    Ah, the latest Nat killing silver bullet plucked by dimwit Yoons, even Scottish LDs. I bet SLabbers are biting their lips to stop making the same point.




    Well I can understand that Nats might be having a few jitters here, because if Malcolm Bruce is right, the SNP have shot their own fox.

    I think we should watch Edinburgh property prices and see.
    ‘if Malcolm Bruce is right’

    Have a heart, it’s a bit early to have to cope with side splitting hysteria.
    As I say... "jitters".
    Jim Murphy is the man the SNP fear.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    new thread
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149
    Alistair said:

    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    Sandpit said:

    I blame Gordon Brown.

    (Just thought I'd chuck that in, as I haven't read it yet this morning).

    I’m sure Merkel, Macron, Sturgeon and Drakeford have played their dastardly part, mind.
    How Sturgeon reacts to the dropping of the Additional Rate in England, is going to be fun to watch.

    We might get to see in real-life, how high-earners behave in an environment where they can easily move jurisdictions.
    Ah, the latest Nat killing silver bullet plucked by dimwit Yoons, even Scottish LDs. I bet SLabbers are biting their lips to stop making the same point.




    Well I can understand that Nats might be having a few jitters here, because if Malcolm Bruce is right, the SNP have shot their own fox.

    I think we should watch Edinburgh property prices and see.
    ‘if Malcolm Bruce is right’

    Have a heart, it’s a bit early to have to cope with side splitting hysteria.
    As I say... "jitters".
    Jim Murphy is the man the SNP fear.
    In the news of late, rather bizarrely:

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/22377334.jim-murphy-craig-paterson-sacked-claim-worked-ex-labour-leader-denied/
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149
    Alistair said:

    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    Sandpit said:

    I blame Gordon Brown.

    (Just thought I'd chuck that in, as I haven't read it yet this morning).

    I’m sure Merkel, Macron, Sturgeon and Drakeford have played their dastardly part, mind.
    How Sturgeon reacts to the dropping of the Additional Rate in England, is going to be fun to watch.

    We might get to see in real-life, how high-earners behave in an environment where they can easily move jurisdictions.
    Ah, the latest Nat killing silver bullet plucked by dimwit Yoons, even Scottish LDs. I bet SLabbers are biting their lips to stop making the same point.




    Well I can understand that Nats might be having a few jitters here, because if Malcolm Bruce is right, the SNP have shot their own fox.

    I think we should watch Edinburgh property prices and see.
    ‘if Malcolm Bruce is right’

    Have a heart, it’s a bit early to have to cope with side splitting hysteria.
    As I say... "jitters".
    Jim Murphy is the man the SNP fear.
    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/the-staggers/2017/04/how-jim-murphys-mistake-cost-labour-and-helped-make-ruth-davidson

    '[...] Jim Murphy, had a different idea. He fought the election in 2015 to the SNP’s left, with the slogan of “Whether you’re Yes, or No, the Tories have got to go”. There were a couple of problems with that approach, as one former staffer put it: “Firstly, the SNP weren’t going to put the Tories in, and everyone knew it. Secondly, no-one but us wanted to move on [from the referendum]”.'
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,088

    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So - enrichment for the very few, especially Truss's campaign donors, and public and private impoverishment for everyone else. That seems to be the size of it.

    Even if GDP increases, they are vulnerable to the response made by that woman in the North East (I think) during the referendum campaign to someone on the Remain side: "That may be your GDP. It isn't my GDP."

    It is hard to avoid the conclusion that they are just doing what will benefit themselves and could not care less about anyone else. A growing economy (assuming this even happens) is worthless if only a very few get the rewards.

    From Johnson's "Fuck business" to Truss's "Fuck all of you".

    There are two factors on which to judge them.
    Do we get the growth?
    What do they do with that new economic reality?

    At the moment its just 'i dont think it will work and i think they'll be beastly'

    Its a bit like the talk of emergency bank rate meetings. If the BoE had done its job in the first place it wouldnt be necessary. They havent raised far or quick enough, they need to play catch up.
    "Do we get the growth?"

    What growth stimulus is there? Where are the big infrastructure projects that would employ thousands and plough their salaries back into the economy? They could have announced tidal lagoons to generate greener electricity to prevent future cost of living crises. No help today but people would see the vision and look forward to the jobs that might actually arise.

    This is not a budget. It is simply another "rob those at the bottom" move which is all the "Conservatives" have been doing since Cameron lost power.
    They have announced tidal lagoons as part of the green policy

    This from the Observer in April

    Roger Falconer, emeritus professor of water and environmental engineering at Cardiff University, said large tracts of agricultural land in Britain were being covered in solar panels despite the lack of sunshine in winter, but reliable tidal power was not being properly exploited.

    “The problem with tidal lagoons and barrages is that you don’t get the power until they are virtually completed, and that can take years,” he said.

    Large-scale schemes offered value for money compared with other energy sources, he added, but the government needed a better funding model for such projects.

    A spokesperson for the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy said: “The government absolutely recognises the great potential of tidal power. This is why we have provided the marine energy sector with £175m of innovation and research and development funding, as well as ringfencing a £20m budget for tidal stream energy, for which
    bids are expected for Welsh projects.

    “The UK is a global leader in tidal power, to the extent that almost 50% of the world’s installed tidal stream capacity is in UK waters.”

    That's just spin Big_G.
    What tidal lagoons - multi billion pound projects - have been 'announced' ?

    There's the small private sector Swansea project. What else ?

    There is a large tidal lagoon planned for Anglesey and Llandudno to Prestatyn
    And one currently going through the permissions for off the south of the Isle of Wight.
This discussion has been closed.