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The papers on Kwarteng’s vast tax cuts gamble – politicalbetting.com
The papers on Kwarteng’s vast tax cuts gamble – politicalbetting.com
It will be interesting to see what the public reaction is because one would assume that a lot of tax cuts are going to be very popular. The only problem here is that people have been conditioned to the sort of crisis that the government is facing and were expecting the worst not what has actually happened.
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However, what the table shows is since Truss became leader, Labour have yet to drop into the 30s, Liz also seems to firm up Labour support, those starting to flirt with Labour this year seem to have firmed up with option of her or him for Downing Street? Again I was wrong, last week I pushed the idea this Truss uptick would close the gap and put Labour in the thirties going into their conference with just 3 or 4 percent leads in some polls, though this could still happen if Opinium and Kantor report this week.
When it comes to polling, % trend is just as important to watch as gap between parties.
Considering the amount of Labour voters who sat on their hands at last GE, to be more than 10% behind on PV, but now pulling their hands out, where do we look to see the % swing in actual vote switching? In actual voting this parliament is it fair to say Labour doing okay at the former, but not as good at real votes switching from one to other? There might only be a 4 or 5 % swing buried inside what looks bigger with abstentions coming back?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
Politically the package is more or less a disaster. "Reverse Robin Hood" is a charge that will stick and it is a very bad look from an Old Etonian chancellor. The shameless Mail and Express can witter all they like, but "massive tax cuts for the rich" is charge that cuts through, because its true. After nearly a decade of Tory sturm and drang, the voters are getting tired. Even a "coalition of chaos" looks good compared to this Conservative chaos. Tories may deride SKS as a dull figure, but such dullness is increasingly reassuring compared to the reckless and incompetent policies outlined yesterday. Over the course of the next six months, I predict, the voters will make up their minds that change is needed and the Conservatives must go. The glum faces on the government benches yesterday shows that the Tories fear this and also know that the chances of this actually working are not good. Meanwhile, the risks being taken with the economy could torpedo their party for a generation.
Incidentally I think these front pages show what is wrong with the media in the UK. The hand wringing from the left wing titles is fairly wimpish, but the bullish messages from the right wing press are just garbage. There is not even a pretense any more: it is open propaganda. How little self-respect the journalists and especially readers of these comics must now have to think such vacuous drivel has any kind of intellectual or moral strength.
You can see this by comparing what happened during the easy money 1930s (a huge construction boom when a third of the houses in England were built) with what has happened since 2010 (a big increase in the price of existing houses anywhere anybody wants to live). The government knows how serious this problem is. If it can solve it, it will deserve the rave notices from the conservative press. If not, then an inflationary spiral and big Public spending cuts are most likely.
Not that big public sector cuts would necessarily be bad given how much public spending is wasted. Axing foreign aid, Northern Ireland subsidies and farming subsidies would pay for about three quarters of the package the Chancellor just announced.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/09/01/matt-cartoons-september-2022/
Without getting into other things (I am not enamoured with the love of high borrowing that has infected left and right in this country), a point of order: Robin Hood wanted lower taxes. This not-a-Budget, if nothing else, delivers on that.
It'll stick as a long but as a matter of fact it's plain wrong. And there are more accurate and reasonable attacks to be made, although perhaps those don't come with a tabloid headline of a few words and so don't merit quite the attention they ought.
I’m sure when the right-wing fruitcakes wake up they will have a different view.
As I have said many times, Labour will be 20 points clear in the polls by the end of winter.
Nice understatement.
Lab Maj now shorter than Con Maj. When did we last see that? Two decades ago?
NOM 1.88
Lab Maj 3.8
Con Maj 4.2
(Also, the single market is a fair bit bigger, I think more like 450m, isn't it?)
Really?
And I'm not sure, outside the terminally loyal and wannabe pirates, whether people will see a gambling chancellor as a desirable thing. Forget the distinction with gambling with hobby money and gambling with the housekeeping, this is gambling with everyone else's housekeeping when they've had no say in the matter.
Others will not. Theg might be forced to vote Labour out of desperation for financial control.
Tories risk being out of power for 20 years with this madness.
Not sure what anyone can do about it, but the journalist/press officers must be conflicted.
The divisions of the Tory leadership campaign roared back to the fore… with critics claiming the chancellor was trying to avoid scrutiny by refusing to publish economic forecasts from the independent budget regulator.
… compared by one senior party figure to the ill-fated “Barber budget” of 1972, which emulated a similar aim but ended in boom, soaring inflation and ultimately the demise of Ted Heath’s premiership.
“I’ve never known a government that has had so little support from its own backbenches, just four sitting days in,” observed one MP.
“I completely despair, because I’m a member of a party that stands up for the squeezed middle not the very rich. This will be politically toxic and economically dubious,” said another MP present for the statement.
… “It’s the richest we’re helping while the poorest are suffering the most,” was one northern MP’s stark assessment.
“Everybody is distraught at the reshuffle and the way it’s been handled,” said one person recently ousted from the government. “Looking ahead, you’re going to have a situation where, unless some goodwill is extended, people will look for a cause to lay a marker down to make clear their unhappiness.”
Sunak’s supporters said they were more likely to boycott the Conservative party conference and ruminate over WhatsApp with other frustrated colleagues over the following few weeks of recess.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/sep/23/tory-backbenchers-despair-at-toxic-mini-budget
The referendum was on leaving the EU, not on leaving the single market.
Remember that a load of tax rises were pre-announced and most are still in the pipeline.
In particular, the freezing of tax thresholds has turned into a huge stealth tax that hits average voters a lot, far more than initially planned.
Selling tax cuts when most voters can see their taxes going up might prove tricky.
They have a huge opportunity, but are they still too weak to grab it?
If you've never caught his reports from the Baltic States you should try to catch up on them. They are good enough to go between hard covers.
Devastating analysis by the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
https://ifs.org.uk/articles/mini-budget-response
What did he do to VAT? I was waiting to buy a 4K TV, will it be cheaper now?
Now it could just be the personalities involved, but the Conservative politician (was or became children's minister, during the coalition govt I think) came out of it very well. Very human, open-minded, and the experience genuinely changed his views on benefits policy, which he then campaigned on. Annoyed I can't remember his name.
The Labour participant, by contrast, came off as aloof, prissy and uninterested in the actual humans at the end of a benefits policy trying to make ends meet. If I had to pick one of the two to fit the characterisation of 'hates most of the people in it', it would be him, not the Tory.
It was a really illuminating programme - can anyone remember the name of it or the politicians involved?
Any more easy questions?
Thanks wikipedia.
But you look at their economic policies and they were sound. They flushed through the Lawson recession and had the country on a positive track. Whereas today the entire cabinet is made up of sneering Lilley's and they have just said "fuck you" to every tax payer who doesn't fancy another yacht.
Surely it can't end well. Because whatever the Wail and Express want to spin, lived reality for voters is clear and unavoidable and damning.
I've posted before that this party no longer give a rat fuck about anyone other than themselves. So yesterday was hardly a surprise. It's just that after the boosterism of Boris which pretended they still cared, Mistress Truss has no care for such weakness.
The Tory’s are uniquely placed to be the
Labour of the 2020s. What value can we get on Truss being ousted relatively quickly, as she seems lack support across the party
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-63011493
Edit - fucking hell.
I've left that up just because it so aptly demonstrates how confusing this change is.
I can't believe the Lib Dems could be in government, though.
Maybe the way to understand this government is as victims of cultish indoctrination.
As for the comparison with Major, by 1997 he was seen as a victim of events beyond his control. Not a good look for a PM, sure. But he left the country solvent (albeit shabby) which was good.
Unless the current gamble works (and what odds would people give on that?), the UK is about to crash into an iceberg, and Truss and KK will have steered it that way.
Changing PMs within a Parliament is normal. Doing so twice is quite unusual.
“Governments often run a structural deficit to boost the economy with greater spending and lower tax. Unfortunately, this…has a poor track record.”
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1573386424027877377
If I opened by saying something was a pile of poo or the greatest thing since sliced bread I dont think its much defence if I whined my actual views were more nuanced, if you looked elsewhere.
The only other occasion was in the 1935-45 Parliament under somewhat unusual circumstances.
Edit - technically you could add the 1900-1906 Parliament to that list, but Campbell-Bannerman was appointed on the understanding he would seek an immediate election.
So, they crash us into an iceberg. Refuse to accept that we crashed. Start carping that the people saying "oh fuck we're sinking" are Putin apologists. Then start sneering that the people drowning due to lack of lifeboats should have got a better job to insulate themselves from Iceberg incidents should they occur. Which they definitely haven't.
I will repeatedly return to this word "sneering". It isn't a good look in politics whichever party ends up doing it. The current government seemingly have no clue just how awful their team look when they interact with anyone. And their effete moron cheerleaders in the right wing media - and lets include the GBeebies idiots here as well - do not help.
I wonder if it is a more general categorisation than a political one - perhaps many of those who care enough about a cause (love of one's country, equality, anti-racism, nationalism etc) to devote their lives to it aren't the sort of people to enjoy the messiness of what that 'cause' looks like when you put real life humans into the mix.
So in your example - the Conservative will do almost anything to protect the flag, the
QueenKing, 'Britishness', but struggles when confronted with the reality of what the UK actually is (or perhaps 'who' the UK is).Idealists, basically. Don't trust 'em!
The weakness of sterling won't necessarily help exporters who are already struggling with surging prices. If the UK was self sufficient in energy production then it would be of great help, but we aren't so all it means is prices rising by 3-4% in the next few weeks unless the BoE puts up rates by at least 1% on Monday and then another 1% at the next regular meeting in November.
This is quite possibly the worst fiscal event/budget I've witnessed from any Chancellor. We've splurged £45bn in tax cuts and it will result in 90% of working people being and feeling poorer by the end of October. Mental.
We also have full employment. You want a job, you can get one.
There are huge problems ahead for sure, but this is certainly not a normal recession, if we are actually in one.
On the perception point I think NickPalmer had it right. Another time, if already well perceived, I think the budget could have gone done well. But public and businesses don't seem to believe its optimism, they'd already turned against the government and treat its grandiose boosting with skepticism.
They say we'll be better off but people don't buy it. Contrarily, they know and are correct that if the gamble does not work out, the rich will still have benefited.
And that's important. This is no gamble for the rich, but it is for everyone else. No wonder the Cabinet are blase, their friends will be fine regardless.
Only those on over £155,000 will pay less tax overall. The very rich will pay tens of thousands less.
https://twitter.com/PJTheEconomist/status/1573302375703609347
Headline-grabbing cuts more than outweighed by Brownian stealth rises - and the cuts are, of course, funded only by Laffer's magic money tree. The spike in gilt yields shows how much confidence the Government's lenders have in that.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/sep/23/part-time-workers-dismay-benefits-rule-changes-kwasi-kwarteng
Politically I don't get it. This government has "only been in office for two weeks" and has inherited a recession from "the previous government". And here's the instant and rapid action we're taking. Done. Way better than "nope, don't accept the data, who are the BofE anyway and what do they know, we've had enough of experts".
I recall the one that wasnt after later revisions and ultimately i dont think people felt as if there was one even if the stats people said there was.
Likewise, if we technically avoid one it doesn't matter because large numbers feel like we're in the shit. Ive never seen so many people worried about basic spending and the need to adjust to prepare for coming economic pain.
As I said, terrible journalism, most people will be better off *as a result of the changes in taxation announced yesterday* by the Chancellor.
London
Lab 50%
Con 23%
LD 14%
Grn 10%
Ref 1%
Rest of South
Lab 37%
Con 36%
LD 12%
Grn 9%
Ref 4%
Midlands and Wales
Lab 39%
Con 37%
Grn 7%
LD 7%
PC 4%
Ref 2%
North
Lab 48%
Con 32%
Grn 6%
LD 6%
Ref 5%
Scotland
SNP 46%
Lab 20%
Con 18%
LD 7%
Grn 6%
Ref 2%
(YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 1713; Fieldwork: 21st - 22nd September 2022)
Pro-independence parties 52%
Unionist parties 47%
If this gets voted down I think it could perhaps happen, otherwise the time frames probably make it impossible.
Those forecasts of 18% and 22% inflation by next year are not looking so crazy now.
But hey, this isn't Budget. If Rishi's supporters sit on their hands, then maybe.
Even if it passes now, expect a Brady in-tray load of "we told you so...." if in the New Year it has not delivered.
Can't think of any since 1886. It's noteworthy as well those were from different parties. I can't think of any PM who has made an immediate comeback by overthrowing a member of their own party.
Come April the sane choice for most people will be to take a contract rather than a permanent job and pay themselves using a limited company.
For people doing that earn £50,000 it would reduce NI costs to zero and after tax give you a take home pay of £40,080 after all tax was deducted.