Of all the elections in the US taking place on November 8th one that is particularly important is for the House of Representatives where currently the Democrats have a small majority. What the polling chart above shows is that for most of the time in the last few months the Republicans have been polling markedly better than the Democrats. This has now changed.
Comments
I’m on at 7/1 from a while back.
The British Social Attitudes poll attempts to discover the prevailing feelings in the UK on a number of topics, Scottish independence among them.
… the survey shows the shifting attitudes in Scotland through the years, with support for independence rising from 27% in 1999 to 33% in 2014 – in the weeks ahead of the referendum on Scottish independence – and eventually rising to 52% last year.
The time series also showed a drop in support for devolution as the governing structure in Scotland, from 59% in 1999 to 50% in 2014 and a further drop to just 38% last year.
Support for not having a Scottish Parliament has remained roughly at the same rate, falling from just 10% in 1999 to 8% last year, although the figure peaked at 17% in 2004, the survey suggested.
The authors of the report, who included polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice, pointed to the 2014 referendum and Brexit as factors for the increase in support in the past decade.
They said: “Since 2014 there has been a marked increase in the level of support for independence, and especially so since the EU referendum of 2016, after which leaving the UK became more popular than devolution for the first time.”
“The Union has certainly become decidedly less popular north of the border.”
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/scotland-government-support-snp-scottish-parliament-b1027278.html
In the Senate, where we need to beware of rules around nominally independent senators caucusing with Democrats, it is possible value lies with the Republicans at odds against, if you give them anything above a 50/50 chance. There used to be long prices against the Democrats (no doubt thanks to a pb tip, I'm on at 15/2) but I'm wondering if the pendulum has not swung too far the other way.
The trouble is, this might be a turn-out election rather than based on the normal fundamentals so polls on Biden's underwater approval ratings or the economy might mislead. Will anti-Trump legal moves fire up GOP voters more than overturning Roe vs Wade motivates pro-choice and presumably Democrat voters?
Absolutely shreds the both the arguments of Trump’s lawyers, and the decision by Cannon,
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000183-625b-da48-a3e3-e2ff83050000
And this an appeal court of Trump appointees.
The US legal system has suffered some heavy blows in recent years, but it is not yet entirely subverted.
Has a Trump Tipping Point Been Reached? Analyzing The NY Attorney General’s Case Against Trump
https://www.justsecurity.org/83161/tipping-point-the-new-york-attorney-generals-case-against-trump/
For decades Trump has used the law as his plaything, to bully, intimidate, and to bilk his creditors. As a private citizen businessman, his money allowed him to get away with it.
Continuing such behaviour as President and ex President is finally seeing the tables turned.
… Of course, this all is an assessment of future events based solely on currently available data. So far, Donald Trump has withstood years of legal pressures that would have felled a less shameless person. He has a genius for impunity the likes of which we have never seen. Still, we have never seen him, or any individual, come under this many fronts of sustained legal pressure. Today’s announcement may well serve as a tipping point signaling the beginning of the end.…
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1572714685874704384
This response, from the excellent journalist reporting in Ukraine, Christopher Miller, is priceless.
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1572714685874704384
Russian war propagandists also having a fit. Medvedchuk is liked by nobody. His wife once joked to me that she’d leave him if it weren’t for his Crimea mansion. I actually think she may have been serious.
For a sitting president to hold both Houses in the midterms, even by a fine margin, would indeed be a triumph. It means they can govern relatively unimpeded.
The difference between a directly elected executive, with broad powers independent of the legislature, and one entirely dependent on preserving a majority in parliament is vast.
All good news. Now what’s needed is to make sure the Ukranians have enough equipment and ammunition, so the enemy can’t dig in and regroup over the winter.
What they tell us is that there are long-term societal trends underway. Devolution was incredibly popular in Scotland during the 80s and 90s, in the period culminating in the double ‘Yes’ votes in the September 1997 referendum. But what we have witnessed since is the long, slow decline in that devolution fervour, in favour of full sovereignty. To the stage we have reached now, where independence support has totally eclipsed devolution as the preferred constitutional endpoint.
The status quo ante - abolishing the Scottish Parliament and returning to direct rule from Westminster - is as unpopular as ever, bubbling along below 10%. Which explains why none of the main political parties advocate it.
The decline in support for devolution is primarily a problem for the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats: it is very much their baby. Neither seems to know what to do about the Scottish Question they used to so trumpet. Labour’s standard answer is to mumble something incoherent about ‘Gordon Brown’ every six months or so. If pressed, you might still find a Lib Dem willing to mention the word ‘federalism’, sotto voce. They don’t believe it themselves, so unsurprisingly fail to convince electors.
The current make up is an easy 50:50.
There are eight seats which one can envisage flipping:
Arizona: D to R
Georgia: D to R
New Hampshire: D to R
Nevada: D to R
North Carolina: R to D
Ohio: R to D
Pennsylvania: R to D
Wisconsin: R to D
It's entirely possible that one party almost sweeps the board here, and picks up seven of these.
If you dig in, I think there are four of these we can probably take off the table:
Pennsylvania, where Dr Oz has been a dreadful candidate
Ohio, where I suspect the polls overstate Ryan's chances
Arizona, where the consistency of the Kelly leads (and the fact he's flirting with 50% in most of them), makes him the clear favourite.
New Hampshire, where incumbency tends to be a big factor, and the polls seem pretty consistent in predicting a Hassan hold (she has a seven point lead in the 538 poll of polls)
This means that - to gain the Senate - the Republicans have to hold Wisconsin and North Carolina, and flip both of Georgia and Nevada.
If I was going to call it today (and I flip flop continually on this), I would say the Republicans grab Georgia and miss out in Nevada. Which brings us back to 50-50.
But could the Dems win Wisconsin? Yes.
Could they win North Carolina? Yes.
It's far from impossible that they end up winning Wisconsin, North Carolina and the two seats they are defending. In which case they end up on 53-47.
It’s grounds for optimism, but I wouldn’t get carried away.
The most significant immediate effect militarily of the ‘partial mobilisation’ is to make permanent the conscription of all those who signed up on short term contacts for a cash payout, and remove their legal right (which was previously recognised) to terminate the contract.
https://twitter.com/ehananoki/status/1572634659019976704
The AP just reported that military documents show Ohio House nominee J.R. "Majewski never deployed to Afghanistan" (https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-afghanistan-ohio-campaigns-e75d2566635f11f49332bd1c46711999…).
Here he is in a tweet claiming he'd "gladly suit up and go back to Afghanistan tonight."
The most vocal pb Scot critic of the SNP is @malcolmg and while he rails against the Scottish Government, his main complaint is that it is not seriously seeking independence.
This is what I mean by Nicola Sturgeon's genius. Even if Scots voters are unhappy with economic or industrial decline, or health, with some areas of Glasgow in particular having low life expectancies, Sturgeon has convinced voters that none of this is due to the Scottish Government's incompetence but is all Westminster's fault so that what is needed is independence. There is not even analysis of which extra powers needed would be gained by independence because, of course, if there were, then they could be acquired through devolution. Again, of course, this mirrors the campaign for (and against) Brexit but that has now faded.
In this context, mobilisation feels to me like a great thing for Russia, Ukraine and the world. Because it nudges up the odds of Russian regime change in a manner that would result in less unnecessary death rather than more. Only a touch mind. The gut reaction of most outraged or frightened Russians seems to be to run, rather than stand up to the thug who’s been robbing them blind for 20 years.
I am with the poster on the last thread, sorry forget who. The Ukrainians must rain as much suffering down on that invading army as it possibly can, so the switch flips in the popular Russian psyche from Flee to Revolution.
https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1572369023039414272
https://twitter.com/h1ghlanderYes/status/1572312324223950850
https://mobile.twitter.com/oleksiireznikov/status/1572574393095852038
At some point, reality intervenes.
Anyone know ?
Is the pension fund of the UK subsidiary of IBM overseas?
Is a hedge fund, based in London with British investors, but legally domiciled in BVI overseas?
I certainly hope so. American democracy would struggle to survive another Trump election.
Case closed.
I get the definition problem - which is possibly why it seems not easy to turn up a figure.
https://twitter.com/raging545/status/1572701490858594304?t=_wIvwmdXGd00Ycd_dOx3_A&s=09
The findings come as Kwasi Kwarteng plans to slash taxes in tomorrow's mini-budget.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/blow-for-liz-truss-as-voters-back-higher-taxes_uk_632b1e68e4b0ed991abf9369
Now, I don't think the Dems will take the House and have greened out of my position on the market after having got on at silly odds both ways (early in Biden's term in the term the Dems were favourites(!!!!!!!!) to win Congress, and then the markets were too slow to react to Roe repeal recently). But saying the Dems achieving a feat last seen post 9/11 and I don't know when before that is bad is just wrong.
https://mobile.twitter.com/kyledcheney/status/1572762467473694720
! TRUMP to Hannity on declassifying documents:
There doesn’t have to be a process, as I understand it. If you’re the president of the United states, you can declasify ... **even by thinking about it**"
Mr. B, maybe Trump's idea of action by thinking was inspired by lawyer's charging for time thinking about a case?
Would have given the Labour Party 52 more seats while depriving the Tories of 13, making Labour the largest party and ruling out a Tory/DUP deal.
Independence
Status Quo Devolution
Abolish Scottish Parliament
So as support for independence rises Status Quo Devolution must fall.
If we are talking about a scenario where the Dems hold the House then he is most surely in with a chance.
(Once again, disclaimer: I do not think the Dems hold the House)
And good morning one and all!
That could land him a very long jail term.
More likely just the usual BS, but not impossible ?
(Edit) He was, but you also appear to be right.
🇺🇦 freed 10 foreign citizens from Russian captivity as a sign of gratitude for their help to our state. 5 citizens of 🇬🇧, 2 citizens of 🇺🇸, citizens of 🇲🇦, 🇸🇪, 🇭🇷. They’ll return home with the mediation of Saudi Arabia. I’m truly grateful to everyone who contributed to that! 3/3
https://mobile.twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1572842494903357442
Perhaps the last one before the election.
It is as you were, the right bloc will win a majority on all but an unheard of level of polling miss. PD, the main left bloc party, have drifted 2-3 points, M5S have had a good campaign but will nowhere near match 2018.
On the betting markets, Meloni has tightened to a 95% chance for next PM which is no longer much value given some slight needle on points of disagreement between her and coalition partner Salvini in the last week of the campaign.
Neither is there much value in a Most Seats market, in which FdI will win with a lot of FPTP seats, so their 1/14 and PDs 11/1 don't provide much value (now, had that been a most VOTES market, with PD polling around 3 points behind on average but still scoring the occasional poll lead, I'd have called PD value - but it isn't).
So, sit on your money and enjoy your small change winnings if you got on Meloni next PM at 78% a few weeks ago.
Incidentally., glad to see the pregnant medic was one of those released.
This balloon the deficit and ignore the consequences (because Reganomics) stuff is bonkers.
I'd support targeted measures on housing, infrastructure, education and some tax cuts to boost long-term growth - and to invest accordingly- but there's a strong whiff of ideology here and throwing tens of billions of cash at the blackjack table and hoping it comes up red inside 12-18 months isn't a responsible strategy.
GOVUK: We have identified you as eligible for a discounted energy bill under the Energy Bills Support Scheme. You can apply here: (non-gov website)
This stinks of a scam to me. Has anyone else had them?
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1572699691896168448?t=f-DfnEa8F9XbYFoFf_ID7g&s=19
According to our agreements with
@RTErdogan, the five released Azov commanders will be in comfortable conditions in Turkey until the end of the war. They will be able to see their families. I sincerely thank President Erdoğan for his leading role in liberating our people. 2/3
https://mobile.twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1572842492919222272
Scam by the looks of it
https://www.belfastlive.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/energy-bills-text-scam-warning-24944683
Those same people will also be furious at, for a random example, government policy to attract high-earners from overseas to work in the financial services industry.
My problem with it is not the borrowing to fund growth, but the extraordinarily unconvincing manner in which the money is going to be deployed.
You need to be kind to yourself and rest as much as possible
Edit - Or to be exact, before you suggested it.
It is 100% a scam,
Glad to have avoided this pre-vaccination. Post vaccination, I'd have to say I've felt worse for longer with other viral infections, but it's still nasty enough.
Perhaps…. Perhaps…. Blatant lie…. We will remove doctors’ monopoly prerogative to write prescriptions.
Rough summary.
Seeing a GP in England within 2 weeks will be an "expectation" under new Govt, says new health secretary Therese Coffey (which isn't a guarantee)
@BBCr4today
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-62987823
Unless you've got membership of the Chase Golf Club and Spa.
They should hold the Senate though
https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/22292141.support-independence-queens-death-poll-suggests/
(So said no-one who’s ever lived anywhere else in the developed world).
Its a family trait on my dad's side. I'm not too bad, my brother suffers with sinus issues far worse than I do.
Now I believe nurses can prescribe a great deal more than they could then, and pharmacists employed in GP surgeries can and do as well.
Places like the Netherlands and Germany, I'm thinking it's not probable.
By making nurses graduates, the government has whether deliberately or not raised them up in terms of knowledge and competency pretty close to the standards most doctors were at forty years ago.