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Could Biden be triumphant in the MidTerms? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 22 in General
imageCould Biden be triumphant in the MidTerms? – politicalbetting.com

Of all the elections in the US taking place on November 8th one that is particularly important is for the House of Representatives where currently the Democrats have a small majority. What the polling chart above shows is that for most of the time in the last few months the Republicans have been polling markedly better than the Democrats. This has now changed.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,250
    First, like Donald T to claim foul....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,732
    edited September 22
    OT, it’s possible.
    I’m on at 7/1 from a while back.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 10,220
    Union has become ‘decidedly less popular’ in Scotland, report finds

    The British Social Attitudes poll attempts to discover the prevailing feelings in the UK on a number of topics, Scottish independence among them.

    … the survey shows the shifting attitudes in Scotland through the years, with support for independence rising from 27% in 1999 to 33% in 2014 – in the weeks ahead of the referendum on Scottish independence – and eventually rising to 52% last year.

    The time series also showed a drop in support for devolution as the governing structure in Scotland, from 59% in 1999 to 50% in 2014 and a further drop to just 38% last year.

    Support for not having a Scottish Parliament has remained roughly at the same rate, falling from just 10% in 1999 to 8% last year, although the figure peaked at 17% in 2004, the survey suggested.

    The authors of the report, who included polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice, pointed to the 2014 referendum and Brexit as factors for the increase in support in the past decade.

    They said: “Since 2014 there has been a marked increase in the level of support for independence, and especially so since the EU referendum of 2016, after which leaving the UK became more popular than devolution for the first time.”

    “The Union has certainly become decidedly less popular north of the border.”

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/scotland-government-support-snp-scottish-parliament-b1027278.html
  • A Democrat win is plausible but 3/1 or 25% looks about right to me. Six weeks to go, direction of travel favours Team Biden.

    In the Senate, where we need to beware of rules around nominally independent senators caucusing with Democrats, it is possible value lies with the Republicans at odds against, if you give them anything above a 50/50 chance. There used to be long prices against the Democrats (no doubt thanks to a pb tip, I'm on at 15/2) but I'm wondering if the pendulum has not swung too far the other way.

    The trouble is, this might be a turn-out election rather than based on the normal fundamentals so polls on Biden's underwater approval ratings or the economy might mislead. Will anti-Trump legal moves fire up GOP voters more than overturning Roe vs Wade motivates pro-choice and presumably Democrat voters?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,732
    The full decision on the Justice Department’s appeal regarding the classified documents stolen by Trump.
    Absolutely shreds the both the arguments of Trump’s lawyers, and the decision by Cannon,
    https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000183-625b-da48-a3e3-e2ff83050000

    And this an appeal court of Trump appointees.
    The US legal system has suffered some heavy blows in recent years, but it is not yet entirely subverted.
  • Union has become ‘decidedly less popular’ in Scotland, report finds

    The British Social Attitudes poll attempts to discover the prevailing feelings in the UK on a number of topics, Scottish independence among them.

    … the survey shows the shifting attitudes in Scotland through the years, with support for independence rising from 27% in 1999 to 33% in 2014 – in the weeks ahead of the referendum on Scottish independence – and eventually rising to 52% last year.

    The time series also showed a drop in support for devolution as the governing structure in Scotland, from 59% in 1999 to 50% in 2014 and a further drop to just 38% last year.

    Support for not having a Scottish Parliament has remained roughly at the same rate, falling from just 10% in 1999 to 8% last year, although the figure peaked at 17% in 2004, the survey suggested.

    The authors of the report, who included polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice, pointed to the 2014 referendum and Brexit as factors for the increase in support in the past decade.

    They said: “Since 2014 there has been a marked increase in the level of support for independence, and especially so since the EU referendum of 2016, after which leaving the UK became more popular than devolution for the first time.”

    “The Union has certainly become decidedly less popular north of the border.”

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/scotland-government-support-snp-scottish-parliament-b1027278.html

    Interesting perhaps that support for devolution has fallen. Does this mean that Nicola Sturgeon's genius is to deflect blame for any perceived failures of the Scottish Government she leads onto the constitutional question? Is there a paradox that the better the Scottish Government performs, the less need will be seen for independence?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,732
    Article on Trump’s other little legal difficulty.

    Has a Trump Tipping Point Been Reached? Analyzing The NY Attorney General’s Case Against Trump
    https://www.justsecurity.org/83161/tipping-point-the-new-york-attorney-generals-case-against-trump/

    For decades Trump has used the law as his plaything, to bully, intimidate, and to bilk his creditors. As a private citizen businessman, his money allowed him to get away with it.
    Continuing such behaviour as President and ex President is finally seeing the tables turned.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,054
    QTWTAIN. He might scrape a tie in the Senate, and hold on to the house by a couple of seats, which would be about as “Triumphant” as Mrs May’s 2017 election. That’s Biden’s best case scenario.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,732
    Nigelb said:

    Article on Trump’s other little legal difficulty.

    Has a Trump Tipping Point Been Reached? Analyzing The NY Attorney General’s Case Against Trump
    https://www.justsecurity.org/83161/tipping-point-the-new-york-attorney-generals-case-against-trump/

    For decades Trump has used the law as his plaything, to bully, intimidate, and to bilk his creditors. As a private citizen businessman, his money allowed him to get away with it.
    Continuing such behaviour as President and ex President is finally seeing the tables turned.

    Nice caveat at the end.
    … Of course, this all is an assessment of future events based solely on currently available data. So far, Donald Trump has withstood years of legal pressures that would have felled a less shameless person. He has a genius for impunity the likes of which we have never seen. Still, we have never seen him, or any individual, come under this many fronts of sustained legal pressure. Today’s announcement may well serve as a tipping point signaling the beginning of the end.…
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,732
    Russia's ultranationalist and mercenaries, who had briefly been appeased by Putin's mobilization announcement,are getting a heart attack now hearing that he also exchanged all Azov commanders and dozens more for Medvechuk - whom they despise. Instability in paradise.
    https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1572714685874704384

    This response, from the excellent journalist reporting in Ukraine, Christopher Miller, is priceless.
    https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1572714685874704384
    Russian war propagandists also having a fit. Medvedchuk is liked by nobody. His wife once joked to me that she’d leave him if it weren’t for his Crimea mansion. I actually think she may have been serious.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,732
    Sandpit said:

    QTWTAIN. He might scrape a tie in the Senate, and hold on to the house by a couple of seats, which would be about as “Triumphant” as Mrs May’s 2017 election. That’s Biden’s best case scenario.

    The two cases don’t begin to compare.
    For a sitting president to hold both Houses in the midterms, even by a fine margin, would indeed be a triumph. It means they can govern relatively unimpeded.
    The difference between a directly elected executive, with broad powers independent of the legislature, and one entirely dependent on preserving a majority in parliament is vast.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,054
    Nigelb said:

    Russia's ultranationalist and mercenaries, who had briefly been appeased by Putin's mobilization announcement,are getting a heart attack now hearing that he also exchanged all Azov commanders and dozens more for Medvechuk - whom they despise. Instability in paradise.
    https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1572714685874704384

    This response, from the excellent journalist reporting in Ukraine, Christopher Miller, is priceless.
    https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1572714685874704384
    Russian war propagandists also having a fit. Medvedchuk is liked by nobody. His wife once joked to me that she’d leave him if it weren’t for his Crimea mansion. I actually think she may have been serious.

    Yep, definitely now cutting through to the Russian middle classes. Even the limited mobilisation going down very badly with the Muscovites, as seen with last night’s protests. Many Russians will have been ignoring the special military operation war up until yesterday.

    All good news. Now what’s needed is to make sure the Ukranians have enough equipment and ammunition, so the enemy can’t dig in and regroup over the winter.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 10,220

    Union has become ‘decidedly less popular’ in Scotland, report finds

    The British Social Attitudes poll attempts to discover the prevailing feelings in the UK on a number of topics, Scottish independence among them.

    … the survey shows the shifting attitudes in Scotland through the years, with support for independence rising from 27% in 1999 to 33% in 2014 – in the weeks ahead of the referendum on Scottish independence – and eventually rising to 52% last year.

    The time series also showed a drop in support for devolution as the governing structure in Scotland, from 59% in 1999 to 50% in 2014 and a further drop to just 38% last year.

    Support for not having a Scottish Parliament has remained roughly at the same rate, falling from just 10% in 1999 to 8% last year, although the figure peaked at 17% in 2004, the survey suggested.

    The authors of the report, who included polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice, pointed to the 2014 referendum and Brexit as factors for the increase in support in the past decade.

    They said: “Since 2014 there has been a marked increase in the level of support for independence, and especially so since the EU referendum of 2016, after which leaving the UK became more popular than devolution for the first time.”

    “The Union has certainly become decidedly less popular north of the border.”

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/scotland-government-support-snp-scottish-parliament-b1027278.html

    Interesting perhaps that support for devolution has fallen. Does this mean that Nicola Sturgeon's genius is to deflect blame for any perceived failures of the Scottish Government she leads onto the constitutional question? Is there a paradox that the better the Scottish Government performs, the less need will be seen for independence?
    The beauty of the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey and the British Social Attitudes Survey is that they are a very long series of standardised questions, comparable over time. They are academic exercises and are not published with the aim of, for example, selling newspapers. They are serious works, not throwaway snapshots.

    What they tell us is that there are long-term societal trends underway. Devolution was incredibly popular in Scotland during the 80s and 90s, in the period culminating in the double ‘Yes’ votes in the September 1997 referendum. But what we have witnessed since is the long, slow decline in that devolution fervour, in favour of full sovereignty. To the stage we have reached now, where independence support has totally eclipsed devolution as the preferred constitutional endpoint.

    The status quo ante - abolishing the Scottish Parliament and returning to direct rule from Westminster - is as unpopular as ever, bubbling along below 10%. Which explains why none of the main political parties advocate it.

    The decline in support for devolution is primarily a problem for the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats: it is very much their baby. Neither seems to know what to do about the Scottish Question they used to so trumpet. Labour’s standard answer is to mumble something incoherent about ‘Gordon Brown’ every six months or so. If pressed, you might still find a Lib Dem willing to mention the word ‘federalism’, sotto voce. They don’t believe it themselves, so unsurprisingly fail to convince electors.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 47,122
    Sandpit said:

    QTWTAIN. He might scrape a tie in the Senate, and hold on to the house by a couple of seats, which would be about as “Triumphant” as Mrs May’s 2017 election. That’s Biden’s best case scenario.

    It's possible that the Democrats do a lot better than that, in the Senate at least.

    The current make up is an easy 50:50.

    There are eight seats which one can envisage flipping:

    Arizona: D to R
    Georgia: D to R
    New Hampshire: D to R
    Nevada: D to R
    North Carolina: R to D
    Ohio: R to D
    Pennsylvania: R to D
    Wisconsin: R to D

    It's entirely possible that one party almost sweeps the board here, and picks up seven of these.

    If you dig in, I think there are four of these we can probably take off the table:

    Pennsylvania, where Dr Oz has been a dreadful candidate
    Ohio, where I suspect the polls overstate Ryan's chances
    Arizona, where the consistency of the Kelly leads (and the fact he's flirting with 50% in most of them), makes him the clear favourite.
    New Hampshire, where incumbency tends to be a big factor, and the polls seem pretty consistent in predicting a Hassan hold (she has a seven point lead in the 538 poll of polls)

    This means that - to gain the Senate - the Republicans have to hold Wisconsin and North Carolina, and flip both of Georgia and Nevada.

    If I was going to call it today (and I flip flop continually on this), I would say the Republicans grab Georgia and miss out in Nevada. Which brings us back to 50-50.

    But could the Dems win Wisconsin? Yes.
    Could they win North Carolina? Yes.

    It's far from impossible that they end up winning Wisconsin, North Carolina and the two seats they are defending. In which case they end up on 53-47.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,732
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Russia's ultranationalist and mercenaries, who had briefly been appeased by Putin's mobilization announcement,are getting a heart attack now hearing that he also exchanged all Azov commanders and dozens more for Medvechuk - whom they despise. Instability in paradise.
    https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1572714685874704384

    This response, from the excellent journalist reporting in Ukraine, Christopher Miller, is priceless.
    https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1572714685874704384
    Russian war propagandists also having a fit. Medvedchuk is liked by nobody. His wife once joked to me that she’d leave him if it weren’t for his Crimea mansion. I actually think she may have been serious.

    Yep, definitely now cutting through to the Russian middle classes. Even the limited mobilisation going down very badly with the Muscovites, as seen with last night’s protests. Many Russians will have been ignoring the special military operation war up until yesterday.

    All good news. Now what’s needed is to make sure the Ukranians have enough equipment and ammunition, so the enemy can’t dig in and regroup over the winter.
    True, but it’s hard to assess quite how politically significant are the protests at this point. Are they a real threat to Putin, or just an annoyance that can be dealt with in the usual brutal manner ?
    It’s grounds for optimism, but I wouldn’t get carried away.

    The most significant immediate effect militarily of the ‘partial mobilisation’ is to make permanent the conscription of all those who signed up on short term contacts for a cash payout, and remove their legal right (which was previously recognised) to terminate the contract.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,250

    Union has become ‘decidedly less popular’ in Scotland, report finds

    The British Social Attitudes poll attempts to discover the prevailing feelings in the UK on a number of topics, Scottish independence among them.

    … the survey shows the shifting attitudes in Scotland through the years, with support for independence rising from 27% in 1999 to 33% in 2014 – in the weeks ahead of the referendum on Scottish independence – and eventually rising to 52% last year.

    The time series also showed a drop in support for devolution as the governing structure in Scotland, from 59% in 1999 to 50% in 2014 and a further drop to just 38% last year.

    Support for not having a Scottish Parliament has remained roughly at the same rate, falling from just 10% in 1999 to 8% last year, although the figure peaked at 17% in 2004, the survey suggested.

    The authors of the report, who included polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice, pointed to the 2014 referendum and Brexit as factors for the increase in support in the past decade.

    They said: “Since 2014 there has been a marked increase in the level of support for independence, and especially so since the EU referendum of 2016, after which leaving the UK became more popular than devolution for the first time.”

    “The Union has certainly become decidedly less popular north of the border.”

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/scotland-government-support-snp-scottish-parliament-b1027278.html

    Interesting perhaps that support for devolution has fallen. Does this mean that Nicola Sturgeon's genius is to deflect blame for any perceived failures of the Scottish Government she leads onto the constitutional question? Is there a paradox that the better the Scottish Government performs, the less need will be seen for independence?
    The beauty of the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey and the British Social Attitudes Survey is that they are a very long series of standardised questions, comparable over time. They are academic exercises and are not published with the aim of, for example, selling newspapers. They are serious works, not throwaway snapshots.

    What they tell us is that there are long-term societal trends underway. Devolution was incredibly popular in Scotland during the 80s and 90s, in the period culminating in the double ‘Yes’ votes in the September 1997 referendum. But what we have witnessed since is the long, slow decline in that devolution fervour, in favour of full sovereignty. To the stage we have reached now, where independence support has totally eclipsed devolution as the preferred constitutional endpoint.

    The status quo ante - abolishing the Scottish Parliament and returning to direct rule from Westminster - is as unpopular as ever, bubbling along below 10%. Which explains why none of the main political parties advocate it.

    The decline in support for devolution is primarily a problem for the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats: it is very much their baby. Neither seems to know what to do about the Scottish Question they used to so trumpet. Labour’s standard answer is to mumble something incoherent about ‘Gordon Brown’ every six months or so. If pressed, you might still find a Lib Dem willing to mention the word ‘federalism’, sotto voce. They don’t believe it themselves, so unsurprisingly fail to convince electors.
    some good analysis, the appeal of `Europe' as opposed to membership of a Union with a Conservative dominated England is a strong selling point.... I am not even sure a Lab govt could sell the Union in Scotland any more...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,732
    This is in a currently Democratic held seat which has been redistributed to make a Republican win possible.

    https://twitter.com/ehananoki/status/1572634659019976704
    The AP just reported that military documents show Ohio House nominee J.R. "Majewski never deployed to Afghanistan" (https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-afghanistan-ohio-campaigns-e75d2566635f11f49332bd1c46711999…).

    Here he is in a tweet claiming he'd "gladly suit up and go back to Afghanistan tonight."
  • Union has become ‘decidedly less popular’ in Scotland, report finds

    The British Social Attitudes poll attempts to discover the prevailing feelings in the UK on a number of topics, Scottish independence among them.

    … the survey shows the shifting attitudes in Scotland through the years, with support for independence rising from 27% in 1999 to 33% in 2014 – in the weeks ahead of the referendum on Scottish independence – and eventually rising to 52% last year.

    The time series also showed a drop in support for devolution as the governing structure in Scotland, from 59% in 1999 to 50% in 2014 and a further drop to just 38% last year.

    Support for not having a Scottish Parliament has remained roughly at the same rate, falling from just 10% in 1999 to 8% last year, although the figure peaked at 17% in 2004, the survey suggested.

    The authors of the report, who included polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice, pointed to the 2014 referendum and Brexit as factors for the increase in support in the past decade.

    They said: “Since 2014 there has been a marked increase in the level of support for independence, and especially so since the EU referendum of 2016, after which leaving the UK became more popular than devolution for the first time.”

    “The Union has certainly become decidedly less popular north of the border.”

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/scotland-government-support-snp-scottish-parliament-b1027278.html

    Interesting perhaps that support for devolution has fallen. Does this mean that Nicola Sturgeon's genius is to deflect blame for any perceived failures of the Scottish Government she leads onto the constitutional question? Is there a paradox that the better the Scottish Government performs, the less need will be seen for independence?
    The beauty of the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey and the British Social Attitudes Survey is that they are a very long series of standardised questions, comparable over time. They are academic exercises and are not published with the aim of, for example, selling newspapers. They are serious works, not throwaway snapshots.

    What they tell us is that there are long-term societal trends underway. Devolution was incredibly popular in Scotland during the 80s and 90s, in the period culminating in the double ‘Yes’ votes in the September 1997 referendum. But what we have witnessed since is the long, slow decline in that devolution fervour, in favour of full sovereignty. To the stage we have reached now, where independence support has totally eclipsed devolution as the preferred constitutional endpoint.

    The status quo ante - abolishing the Scottish Parliament and returning to direct rule from Westminster - is as unpopular as ever, bubbling along below 10%. Which explains why none of the main political parties advocate it.

    The decline in support for devolution is primarily a problem for the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats: it is very much their baby. Neither seems to know what to do about the Scottish Question they used to so trumpet. Labour’s standard answer is to mumble something incoherent about ‘Gordon Brown’ every six months or so. If pressed, you might still find a Lib Dem willing to mention the word ‘federalism’, sotto voce. They don’t believe it themselves, so unsurprisingly fail to convince electors.
    Yes, I get the independence thing. What puzzles me is that normal politics has remained suspended for more than a decade; it is as if all that mattered down south was Brexit, say, and there was a short while when that was true.

    The most vocal pb Scot critic of the SNP is @malcolmg and while he rails against the Scottish Government, his main complaint is that it is not seriously seeking independence.

    This is what I mean by Nicola Sturgeon's genius. Even if Scots voters are unhappy with economic or industrial decline, or health, with some areas of Glasgow in particular having low life expectancies, Sturgeon has convinced voters that none of this is due to the Scottish Government's incompetence but is all Westminster's fault so that what is needed is independence. There is not even analysis of which extra powers needed would be gained by independence because, of course, if there were, then they could be acquired through devolution. Again, of course, this mirrors the campaign for (and against) Brexit but that has now faded.
  • Union has become ‘decidedly less popular’ in Scotland, report finds

    The British Social Attitudes poll attempts to discover the prevailing feelings in the UK on a number of topics, Scottish independence among them.

    … the survey shows the shifting attitudes in Scotland through the years, with support for independence rising from 27% in 1999 to 33% in 2014 – in the weeks ahead of the referendum on Scottish independence – and eventually rising to 52% last year.

    The time series also showed a drop in support for devolution as the governing structure in Scotland, from 59% in 1999 to 50% in 2014 and a further drop to just 38% last year.

    Support for not having a Scottish Parliament has remained roughly at the same rate, falling from just 10% in 1999 to 8% last year, although the figure peaked at 17% in 2004, the survey suggested.

    The authors of the report, who included polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice, pointed to the 2014 referendum and Brexit as factors for the increase in support in the past decade.

    They said: “Since 2014 there has been a marked increase in the level of support for independence, and especially so since the EU referendum of 2016, after which leaving the UK became more popular than devolution for the first time.”

    “The Union has certainly become decidedly less popular north of the border.”

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/scotland-government-support-snp-scottish-parliament-b1027278.html

    Interesting perhaps that support for devolution has fallen. Does this mean that Nicola Sturgeon's genius is to deflect blame for any perceived failures of the Scottish Government she leads onto the constitutional question? Is there a paradox that the better the Scottish Government performs, the less need will be seen for independence?
    The beauty of the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey and the British Social Attitudes Survey is that they are a very long series of standardised questions, comparable over time. They are academic exercises and are not published with the aim of, for example, selling newspapers. They are serious works, not throwaway snapshots.

    What they tell us is that there are long-term societal trends underway. Devolution was incredibly popular in Scotland during the 80s and 90s, in the period culminating in the double ‘Yes’ votes in the September 1997 referendum. But what we have witnessed since is the long, slow decline in that devolution fervour, in favour of full sovereignty. To the stage we have reached now, where independence support has totally eclipsed devolution as the preferred constitutional endpoint.

    The status quo ante - abolishing the Scottish Parliament and returning to direct rule from Westminster - is as unpopular as ever, bubbling along below 10%. Which explains why none of the main political parties advocate it.

    The decline in support for devolution is primarily a problem for the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats: it is very much their baby. Neither seems to know what to do about the Scottish Question they used to so trumpet. Labour’s standard answer is to mumble something incoherent about ‘Gordon Brown’ every six months or so. If pressed, you might still find a Lib Dem willing to mention the word ‘federalism’, sotto voce. They don’t believe it themselves, so unsurprisingly fail to convince electors.
    some good analysis, the appeal of `Europe' as opposed to membership of a Union with a Conservative dominated England is a strong selling point.... I am not even sure a Lab govt could sell the Union in Scotland any more...
    You have put your finger on another paradox. Aversion to Conservative rule fuels the SNP's dominance of Scottish politics, but voting SNP rather than Labour in Westminster elections makes a Conservative government more likely; it brings about what it hopes to avoid.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,668
    It feels like we’re a very long way from a Russian Spring. And that if Putin gets one between the eyes it will be from hardliners, who seem to want to stretch the bounds of geopolitical and military logic well beyond breaking point.

    In this context, mobilisation feels to me like a great thing for Russia, Ukraine and the world. Because it nudges up the odds of Russian regime change in a manner that would result in less unnecessary death rather than more. Only a touch mind. The gut reaction of most outraged or frightened Russians seems to be to run, rather than stand up to the thug who’s been robbing them blind for 20 years.

    I am with the poster on the last thread, sorry forget who. The Ukrainians must rain as much suffering down on that invading army as it possibly can, so the switch flips in the popular Russian psyche from Flee to Revolution.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,732
    Yesterday was the 45th anniversary of jumping the shark.
    https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1572369023039414272
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 476

    Union has become ‘decidedly less popular’ in Scotland, report finds

    The British Social Attitudes poll attempts to discover the prevailing feelings in the UK on a number of topics, Scottish independence among them.

    … the survey shows the shifting attitudes in Scotland through the years, with support for independence rising from 27% in 1999 to 33% in 2014 – in the weeks ahead of the referendum on Scottish independence – and eventually rising to 52% last year.

    The time series also showed a drop in support for devolution as the governing structure in Scotland, from 59% in 1999 to 50% in 2014 and a further drop to just 38% last year.

    Support for not having a Scottish Parliament has remained roughly at the same rate, falling from just 10% in 1999 to 8% last year, although the figure peaked at 17% in 2004, the survey suggested.

    The authors of the report, who included polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice, pointed to the 2014 referendum and Brexit as factors for the increase in support in the past decade.

    They said: “Since 2014 there has been a marked increase in the level of support for independence, and especially so since the EU referendum of 2016, after which leaving the UK became more popular than devolution for the first time.”

    “The Union has certainly become decidedly less popular north of the border.”

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/scotland-government-support-snp-scottish-parliament-b1027278.html

    Interesting perhaps that support for devolution has fallen. Does this mean that Nicola Sturgeon's genius is to deflect blame for any perceived failures of the Scottish Government she leads onto the constitutional question? Is there a paradox that the better the Scottish Government performs, the less need will be seen for independence?
    The beauty of the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey and the British Social Attitudes Survey is that they are a very long series of standardised questions, comparable over time. They are academic exercises and are not published with the aim of, for example, selling newspapers. They are serious works, not throwaway snapshots.

    What they tell us is that there are long-term societal trends underway. Devolution was incredibly popular in Scotland during the 80s and 90s, in the period culminating in the double ‘Yes’ votes in the September 1997 referendum. But what we have witnessed since is the long, slow decline in that devolution fervour, in favour of full sovereignty. To the stage we have reached now, where independence support has totally eclipsed devolution as the preferred constitutional endpoint.

    The status quo ante - abolishing the Scottish Parliament and returning to direct rule from Westminster - is as unpopular as ever, bubbling along below 10%. Which explains why none of the main political parties advocate it.

    The decline in support for devolution is primarily a problem for the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats: it is very much their baby. Neither seems to know what to do about the Scottish Question they used to so trumpet. Labour’s standard answer is to mumble something incoherent about ‘Gordon Brown’ every six months or so. If pressed, you might still find a Lib Dem willing to mention the word ‘federalism’, sotto voce. They don’t believe it themselves, so unsurprisingly fail to convince electors.
    some good analysis, the appeal of `Europe' as opposed to membership of a Union with a Conservative dominated England is a strong selling point.... I am not even sure a Lab govt could sell the Union in Scotland any more...
    You have put your finger on another paradox. Aversion to Conservative rule fuels the SNP's dominance of Scottish politics, but voting SNP rather than Labour in Westminster elections makes a Conservative government more likely; it brings about what it hopes to avoid.
    It's often been remarked by many that the Conservative Party and the Scottish National Party are in a kind of symbiotic relationship. For its part, the Conservative Party is an excellent bogeyman for the SNP (in recent years it seems to be positively relishing that role). Meanwhile, the SNP is pernicious to Labour on a number of fronts, first by depriving Labour of seats to help form a majority and then second by allowing claims that Labour will have to do a deal with the SNP to get power. The latter is a real anathema to large swathes of the English electorate and so doubly helps deprive Labour of a chance at a majority. The parties are, to use some outdated mid 00s slang, frenemies.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 47,122
    Nigelb said:

    Yesterday was the 45th anniversary of jumping the shark.
    https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1572369023039414272

    You know, I'm beginning to suspect that they used a stunt man for that jump.
  • moonshine said:

    It feels like we’re a very long way from a Russian Spring. And that if Putin gets one between the eyes it will be from hardliners, who seem to want to stretch the bounds of geopolitical and military logic well beyond breaking point.

    In this context, mobilisation feels to me like a great thing for Russia, Ukraine and the world. Because it nudges up the odds of Russian regime change in a manner that would result in less unnecessary death rather than more. Only a touch mind. The gut reaction of most outraged or frightened Russians seems to be to run, rather than stand up to the thug who’s been robbing them blind for 20 years.

    I am with the poster on the last thread, sorry forget who. The Ukrainians must rain as much suffering down on that invading army as it possibly can, so the switch flips in the popular Russian psyche from Flee to Revolution.

    That is the problem. If Putin is replaced, it will likely be by a hardliner. It is the old chestnut about each chapter in Russian history closing with the phrase, and then things got worse. It is speculated to be why even the United States is careful not to give Ukraine too much power.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,479
    edited September 22
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Yesterday was the 45th anniversary of jumping the shark.
    https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1572369023039414272

    You know, I'm beginning to suspect that they used a stunt man for that jump.
    Lol, but at least Henry Winkler is water-skiing (in a leather jacket) and the (stuntman's) jump is more convincing than Ron Howard driving the boat.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543
    More than 100,000 part-time workers will risk having their benefits cut if they do not agree to work longer hours, under plans to be unveiled by Kwasi Kwarteng on Friday https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/09/21/work-longer-hours-lose-benefits-kwasi-kwarteng-tell-part-time/?utm_content=politics&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1663792113-2
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746
    moonshine said:

    It feels like we’re a very long way from a Russian Spring. And that if Putin gets one between the eyes it will be from hardliners, who seem to want to stretch the bounds of geopolitical and military logic well beyond breaking point.

    In this context, mobilisation feels to me like a great thing for Russia, Ukraine and the world. Because it nudges up the odds of Russian regime change in a manner that would result in less unnecessary death rather than more. Only a touch mind. The gut reaction of most outraged or frightened Russians seems to be to run, rather than stand up to the thug who’s been robbing them blind for 20 years.

    I am with the poster on the last thread, sorry forget who. The Ukrainians must rain as much suffering down on that invading army as it possibly can, so the switch flips in the popular Russian psyche from Flee to Revolution.

    Medvedev, the Liberal Democratic Party and the Communists are all more headline.
  • Kwasi Kwarteng. Is this the man that we have confidence in to rip up economic orthodoxy, fire long-term senior civil servants etc.?

    https://twitter.com/h1ghlanderYes/status/1572312324223950850

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,054
    “Russian Maths Exam” - from the Ukranian defence minister.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/oleksiireznikov/status/1572574393095852038

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 47,122

    moonshine said:

    It feels like we’re a very long way from a Russian Spring. And that if Putin gets one between the eyes it will be from hardliners, who seem to want to stretch the bounds of geopolitical and military logic well beyond breaking point.

    In this context, mobilisation feels to me like a great thing for Russia, Ukraine and the world. Because it nudges up the odds of Russian regime change in a manner that would result in less unnecessary death rather than more. Only a touch mind. The gut reaction of most outraged or frightened Russians seems to be to run, rather than stand up to the thug who’s been robbing them blind for 20 years.

    I am with the poster on the last thread, sorry forget who. The Ukrainians must rain as much suffering down on that invading army as it possibly can, so the switch flips in the popular Russian psyche from Flee to Revolution.

    That is the problem. If Putin is replaced, it will likely be by a hardliner. It is the old chestnut about each chapter in Russian history closing with the phrase, and then things got worse. It is speculated to be why even the United States is careful not to give Ukraine too much power.
    A hardliner can't magic troops or tanks or shells or airplanes out of thin air.

    At some point, reality intervenes.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,732
    Question ... what percentage of dividends paid by UK companies are remitted overseas ?
    Anyone know ?
  • Union has become ‘decidedly less popular’ in Scotland, report finds

    The British Social Attitudes poll attempts to discover the prevailing feelings in the UK on a number of topics, Scottish independence among them.

    … the survey shows the shifting attitudes in Scotland through the years, with support for independence rising from 27% in 1999 to 33% in 2014 – in the weeks ahead of the referendum on Scottish independence – and eventually rising to 52% last year.

    The time series also showed a drop in support for devolution as the governing structure in Scotland, from 59% in 1999 to 50% in 2014 and a further drop to just 38% last year.

    Support for not having a Scottish Parliament has remained roughly at the same rate, falling from just 10% in 1999 to 8% last year, although the figure peaked at 17% in 2004, the survey suggested.

    The authors of the report, who included polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice, pointed to the 2014 referendum and Brexit as factors for the increase in support in the past decade.

    They said: “Since 2014 there has been a marked increase in the level of support for independence, and especially so since the EU referendum of 2016, after which leaving the UK became more popular than devolution for the first time.”

    “The Union has certainly become decidedly less popular north of the border.”

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/scotland-government-support-snp-scottish-parliament-b1027278.html

    Interesting perhaps that support for devolution has fallen. Does this mean that Nicola Sturgeon's genius is to deflect blame for any perceived failures of the Scottish Government she leads onto the constitutional question? Is there a paradox that the better the Scottish Government performs, the less need will be seen for independence?
    The beauty of the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey and the British Social Attitudes Survey is that they are a very long series of standardised questions, comparable over time. They are academic exercises and are not published with the aim of, for example, selling newspapers. They are serious works, not throwaway snapshots.

    What they tell us is that there are long-term societal trends underway. Devolution was incredibly popular in Scotland during the 80s and 90s, in the period culminating in the double ‘Yes’ votes in the September 1997 referendum. But what we have witnessed since is the long, slow decline in that devolution fervour, in favour of full sovereignty. To the stage we have reached now, where independence support has totally eclipsed devolution as the preferred constitutional endpoint.

    The status quo ante - abolishing the Scottish Parliament and returning to direct rule from Westminster - is as unpopular as ever, bubbling along below 10%. Which explains why none of the main political parties advocate it.

    The decline in support for devolution is primarily a problem for the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats: it is very much their baby. Neither seems to know what to do about the Scottish Question they used to so trumpet. Labour’s standard answer is to mumble something incoherent about ‘Gordon Brown’ every six months or so. If pressed, you might still find a Lib Dem willing to mention the word ‘federalism’, sotto voce. They don’t believe it themselves, so unsurprisingly fail to convince electors.
    Abolitionists are in an uncomfortable position. I'd imagine most rump Unionists would get rid of Hoyrood in an instant if they could press a button to do so without electoral & Union ending consequences, but apart from the weirdo wing on Twitter they can't say it publically. The knowledge that their parties are unlikely to be in government in Scotland within a foreseeable future (make that never for the Scons) no doubt hardens the antipathy.
  • Union has become ‘decidedly less popular’ in Scotland, report finds

    The British Social Attitudes poll attempts to discover the prevailing feelings in the UK on a number of topics, Scottish independence among them.

    … the survey shows the shifting attitudes in Scotland through the years, with support for independence rising from 27% in 1999 to 33% in 2014 – in the weeks ahead of the referendum on Scottish independence – and eventually rising to 52% last year.

    The time series also showed a drop in support for devolution as the governing structure in Scotland, from 59% in 1999 to 50% in 2014 and a further drop to just 38% last year.

    Support for not having a Scottish Parliament has remained roughly at the same rate, falling from just 10% in 1999 to 8% last year, although the figure peaked at 17% in 2004, the survey suggested.

    The authors of the report, who included polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice, pointed to the 2014 referendum and Brexit as factors for the increase in support in the past decade.

    They said: “Since 2014 there has been a marked increase in the level of support for independence, and especially so since the EU referendum of 2016, after which leaving the UK became more popular than devolution for the first time.”

    “The Union has certainly become decidedly less popular north of the border.”

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/scotland-government-support-snp-scottish-parliament-b1027278.html

    Interesting perhaps that support for devolution has fallen. Does this mean that Nicola Sturgeon's genius is to deflect blame for any perceived failures of the Scottish Government she leads onto the constitutional question? Is there a paradox that the better the Scottish Government performs, the less need will be seen for independence?
    The beauty of the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey and the British Social Attitudes Survey is that they are a very long series of standardised questions, comparable over time. They are academic exercises and are not published with the aim of, for example, selling newspapers. They are serious works, not throwaway snapshots.

    What they tell us is that there are long-term societal trends underway. Devolution was incredibly popular in Scotland during the 80s and 90s, in the period culminating in the double ‘Yes’ votes in the September 1997 referendum. But what we have witnessed since is the long, slow decline in that devolution fervour, in favour of full sovereignty. To the stage we have reached now, where independence support has totally eclipsed devolution as the preferred constitutional endpoint.

    The status quo ante - abolishing the Scottish Parliament and returning to direct rule from Westminster - is as unpopular as ever, bubbling along below 10%. Which explains why none of the main political parties advocate it.

    The decline in support for devolution is primarily a problem for the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats: it is very much their baby. Neither seems to know what to do about the Scottish Question they used to so trumpet. Labour’s standard answer is to mumble something incoherent about ‘Gordon Brown’ every six months or so. If pressed, you might still find a Lib Dem willing to mention the word ‘federalism’, sotto voce. They don’t believe it themselves, so unsurprisingly fail to convince electors.
    some good analysis, the appeal of `Europe' as opposed to membership of a Union with a Conservative dominated England is a strong selling point.... I am not even sure a Lab govt could sell the Union in Scotland any more...
    You have put your finger on another paradox. Aversion to Conservative rule fuels the SNP's dominance of Scottish politics, but voting SNP rather than Labour in Westminster elections makes a Conservative government more likely; it brings about what it hopes to avoid.
    When was the last time that all Scottish seats going Labour would have stopped a Tory government?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,668
    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    It feels like we’re a very long way from a Russian Spring. And that if Putin gets one between the eyes it will be from hardliners, who seem to want to stretch the bounds of geopolitical and military logic well beyond breaking point.

    In this context, mobilisation feels to me like a great thing for Russia, Ukraine and the world. Because it nudges up the odds of Russian regime change in a manner that would result in less unnecessary death rather than more. Only a touch mind. The gut reaction of most outraged or frightened Russians seems to be to run, rather than stand up to the thug who’s been robbing them blind for 20 years.

    I am with the poster on the last thread, sorry forget who. The Ukrainians must rain as much suffering down on that invading army as it possibly can, so the switch flips in the popular Russian psyche from Flee to Revolution.

    That is the problem. If Putin is replaced, it will likely be by a hardliner. It is the old chestnut about each chapter in Russian history closing with the phrase, and then things got worse. It is speculated to be why even the United States is careful not to give Ukraine too much power.
    A hardliner can't magic troops or tanks or shells or airplanes out of thin air.

    At some point, reality intervenes.
    He cannot. But he can drop a low yield nuke on Odessa. Or the North Sea. I’m not suggesting for a moment that would end well for Russia or that leader. But it’s not a timeline branch I particularly want to witness firsthand.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 47,122
    Pulpstar said:

    moonshine said:

    It feels like we’re a very long way from a Russian Spring. And that if Putin gets one between the eyes it will be from hardliners, who seem to want to stretch the bounds of geopolitical and military logic well beyond breaking point.

    In this context, mobilisation feels to me like a great thing for Russia, Ukraine and the world. Because it nudges up the odds of Russian regime change in a manner that would result in less unnecessary death rather than more. Only a touch mind. The gut reaction of most outraged or frightened Russians seems to be to run, rather than stand up to the thug who’s been robbing them blind for 20 years.

    I am with the poster on the last thread, sorry forget who. The Ukrainians must rain as much suffering down on that invading army as it possibly can, so the switch flips in the popular Russian psyche from Flee to Revolution.

    Medvedev, the Liberal Democratic Party and the Communists are all more headline.
    I always had my suspicions about that Davey character.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 47,122
    Nigelb said:

    Question ... what percentage of dividends paid by UK companies are remitted overseas ?
    Anyone know ?

    Define overseas:

    Is the pension fund of the UK subsidiary of IBM overseas?
    Is a hedge fund, based in London with British investors, but legally domiciled in BVI overseas?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 34,337

    A Democrat win is plausible but 3/1 or 25% looks about right to me. Six weeks to go, direction of travel favours Team Biden.

    In the Senate, where we need to beware of rules around nominally independent senators caucusing with Democrats, it is possible value lies with the Republicans at odds against, if you give them anything above a 50/50 chance. There used to be long prices against the Democrats (no doubt thanks to a pb tip, I'm on at 15/2) but I'm wondering if the pendulum has not swung too far the other way.

    The trouble is, this might be a turn-out election rather than based on the normal fundamentals so polls on Biden's underwater approval ratings or the economy might mislead. Will anti-Trump legal moves fire up GOP voters more than overturning Roe vs Wade motivates pro-choice and presumably Democrat voters?

    Trumps polling gets worse and worse. I can see him being a real drag on the Republicans who have expressed Trumpite opinions.

    I certainly hope so. American democracy would struggle to survive another Trump election.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 34,337

    Kwasi Kwarteng. Is this the man that we have confidence in to rip up economic orthodoxy, fire long-term senior civil servants etc.?

    https://twitter.com/h1ghlanderYes/status/1572312324223950850

    It is a bit weird. Does he have a history of Tourettes?
  • Foxy said:

    Kwasi Kwarteng. Is this the man that we have confidence in to rip up economic orthodoxy, fire long-term senior civil servants etc.?

    https://twitter.com/h1ghlanderYes/status/1572312324223950850

    It is a bit weird. Does he have a history of Tourettes?
    He said fuck on University Challenge. Twice.

    Case closed.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746
    One thing that slightly surprises me with the current situation Russia/USA is that they're conspicuously NOT on the barred list that Iran, N Korea and Syria are.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,732
    edited September 22
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Question ... what percentage of dividends paid by UK companies are remitted overseas ?
    Anyone know ?

    Define overseas:

    Is the pension fund of the UK subsidiary of IBM overseas?
    Is a hedge fund, based in London with British investors, but legally domiciled in BVI overseas?
    I was looking for a rough idea of the number to get some idea of how much of the benefits of a cut in corporation tax might leave the UK.
    I get the definition problem - which is possibly why it seems not easy to turn up a figure.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 34,337
    2 protestors in support of mobilisation get arrested, possibly conscripted...

    https://twitter.com/raging545/status/1572701490858594304?t=_wIvwmdXGd00Ycd_dOx3_A&s=09
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543
    A majority of voters - including nearly half of Tories - want higher taxes to pay for better public services.

    The findings come as Kwasi Kwarteng plans to slash taxes in tomorrow's mini-budget.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/blow-for-liz-truss-as-voters-back-higher-taxes_uk_632b1e68e4b0ed991abf9369
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,732

    moonshine said:

    It feels like we’re a very long way from a Russian Spring. And that if Putin gets one between the eyes it will be from hardliners, who seem to want to stretch the bounds of geopolitical and military logic well beyond breaking point.

    In this context, mobilisation feels to me like a great thing for Russia, Ukraine and the world. Because it nudges up the odds of Russian regime change in a manner that would result in less unnecessary death rather than more. Only a touch mind. The gut reaction of most outraged or frightened Russians seems to be to run, rather than stand up to the thug who’s been robbing them blind for 20 years.

    I am with the poster on the last thread, sorry forget who. The Ukrainians must rain as much suffering down on that invading army as it possibly can, so the switch flips in the popular Russian psyche from Flee to Revolution.

    That is the problem. If Putin is replaced, it will likely be by a hardliner. It is the old chestnut about each chapter in Russian history closing with the phrase, and then things got worse. It is speculated to be why even the United States is careful not to give Ukraine too much power.
    Yes but it is easier for a new leader, hardliner or not, to draw a line under the Ukraine misadventure without risking their own position.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 7,780
    Sandpit said:

    QTWTAIN. He might scrape a tie in the Senate, and hold on to the house by a couple of seats, which would be about as “Triumphant” as Mrs May’s 2017 election. That’s Biden’s best case scenario.

    If that happens he’ll beat May’s 2017 result in the court of expectation management by a country mile. That’s important.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 2,707
    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    It feels like we’re a very long way from a Russian Spring. And that if Putin gets one between the eyes it will be from hardliners, who seem to want to stretch the bounds of geopolitical and military logic well beyond breaking point.

    In this context, mobilisation feels to me like a great thing for Russia, Ukraine and the world. Because it nudges up the odds of Russian regime change in a manner that would result in less unnecessary death rather than more. Only a touch mind. The gut reaction of most outraged or frightened Russians seems to be to run, rather than stand up to the thug who’s been robbing them blind for 20 years.

    I am with the poster on the last thread, sorry forget who. The Ukrainians must rain as much suffering down on that invading army as it possibly can, so the switch flips in the popular Russian psyche from Flee to Revolution.

    That is the problem. If Putin is replaced, it will likely be by a hardliner. It is the old chestnut about each chapter in Russian history closing with the phrase, and then things got worse. It is speculated to be why even the United States is careful not to give Ukraine too much power.
    A hardliner can't magic troops or tanks or shells or airplanes out of thin air.

    At some point, reality intervenes.
    He cannot. But he can drop a low yield nuke on Odessa. Or the North Sea. I’m not suggesting for a moment that would end well for Russia or that leader. But it’s not a timeline branch I particularly want to witness firsthand.

    I've been saying for a while... the idea that you can just 'beat Russia back' is a fallacy. The dark forces within that country are like an erratic and potentially very aggressive cancer.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,950
    edited September 22
    Sandpit said:

    QTWTAIN. He might scrape a tie in the Senate, and hold on to the house by a couple of seats, which would be about as “Triumphant” as Mrs May’s 2017 election. That’s Biden’s best case scenario.

    If the Dems end up with a majority in the House of Representatives then they will rock solid guaranteed fact have taken at least 2 Senate seats giving them a majority that does not rely on Sinema or Manchin. For the incumbent president to make gains in the Senate and keep control of the House is pretty rare in modern times. That's pretty triumphant.

    Now, I don't think the Dems will take the House and have greened out of my position on the market after having got on at silly odds both ways (early in Biden's term in the term the Dems were favourites(!!!!!!!!) to win Congress, and then the markets were too slow to react to Roe repeal recently). But saying the Dems achieving a feat last seen post 9/11 and I don't know when before that is bad is just wrong.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,732
    Trump now claiming psychic powers of declassification.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/kyledcheney/status/1572762467473694720
    ! TRUMP to Hannity on declassifying documents:

    There doesn’t have to be a process, as I understand it. If you’re the president of the United states, you can declasify ... **even by thinking about it**"
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,344
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. B, maybe Trump's idea of action by thinking was inspired by lawyer's charging for time thinking about a case? :p
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,148

    Union has become ‘decidedly less popular’ in Scotland, report finds

    The British Social Attitudes poll attempts to discover the prevailing feelings in the UK on a number of topics, Scottish independence among them.

    … the survey shows the shifting attitudes in Scotland through the years, with support for independence rising from 27% in 1999 to 33% in 2014 – in the weeks ahead of the referendum on Scottish independence – and eventually rising to 52% last year.

    The time series also showed a drop in support for devolution as the governing structure in Scotland, from 59% in 1999 to 50% in 2014 and a further drop to just 38% last year.

    Support for not having a Scottish Parliament has remained roughly at the same rate, falling from just 10% in 1999 to 8% last year, although the figure peaked at 17% in 2004, the survey suggested.

    The authors of the report, who included polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice, pointed to the 2014 referendum and Brexit as factors for the increase in support in the past decade.

    They said: “Since 2014 there has been a marked increase in the level of support for independence, and especially so since the EU referendum of 2016, after which leaving the UK became more popular than devolution for the first time.”

    “The Union has certainly become decidedly less popular north of the border.”

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/scotland-government-support-snp-scottish-parliament-b1027278.html

    Interesting perhaps that support for devolution has fallen. Does this mean that Nicola Sturgeon's genius is to deflect blame for any perceived failures of the Scottish Government she leads onto the constitutional question? Is there a paradox that the better the Scottish Government performs, the less need will be seen for independence?
    The beauty of the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey and the British Social Attitudes Survey is that they are a very long series of standardised questions, comparable over time. They are academic exercises and are not published with the aim of, for example, selling newspapers. They are serious works, not throwaway snapshots.

    What they tell us is that there are long-term societal trends underway. Devolution was incredibly popular in Scotland during the 80s and 90s, in the period culminating in the double ‘Yes’ votes in the September 1997 referendum. But what we have witnessed since is the long, slow decline in that devolution fervour, in favour of full sovereignty. To the stage we have reached now, where independence support has totally eclipsed devolution as the preferred constitutional endpoint.

    The status quo ante - abolishing the Scottish Parliament and returning to direct rule from Westminster - is as unpopular as ever, bubbling along below 10%. Which explains why none of the main political parties advocate it.

    The decline in support for devolution is primarily a problem for the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats: it is very much their baby. Neither seems to know what to do about the Scottish Question they used to so trumpet. Labour’s standard answer is to mumble something incoherent about ‘Gordon Brown’ every six months or so. If pressed, you might still find a Lib Dem willing to mention the word ‘federalism’, sotto voce. They don’t believe it themselves, so unsurprisingly fail to convince electors.
    some good analysis, the appeal of `Europe' as opposed to membership of a Union with a Conservative dominated England is a strong selling point.... I am not even sure a Lab govt could sell the Union in Scotland any more...
    You have put your finger on another paradox. Aversion to Conservative rule fuels the SNP's dominance of Scottish politics, but voting SNP rather than Labour in Westminster elections makes a Conservative government more likely; it brings about what it hopes to avoid.
    When was the last time that all Scottish seats going Labour would have stopped a Tory government?
    2017.

    Would have given the Labour Party 52 more seats while depriving the Tories of 13, making Labour the largest party and ruling out a Tory/DUP deal.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,148
    Nigelb said:

    Trump now claiming psychic powers of declassification.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/kyledcheney/status/1572762467473694720
    ! TRUMP to Hannity on declassifying documents:

    There doesn’t have to be a process, as I understand it. If you’re the president of the United states, you can declasify ... **even by thinking about it**"

    That won’t wash. He’d have to provide evidence he can think.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,950

    Union has become ‘decidedly less popular’ in Scotland, report finds

    The British Social Attitudes poll attempts to discover the prevailing feelings in the UK on a number of topics, Scottish independence among them.

    … the survey shows the shifting attitudes in Scotland through the years, with support for independence rising from 27% in 1999 to 33% in 2014 – in the weeks ahead of the referendum on Scottish independence – and eventually rising to 52% last year.

    The time series also showed a drop in support for devolution as the governing structure in Scotland, from 59% in 1999 to 50% in 2014 and a further drop to just 38% last year.

    Support for not having a Scottish Parliament has remained roughly at the same rate, falling from just 10% in 1999 to 8% last year, although the figure peaked at 17% in 2004, the survey suggested.

    The authors of the report, who included polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice, pointed to the 2014 referendum and Brexit as factors for the increase in support in the past decade.

    They said: “Since 2014 there has been a marked increase in the level of support for independence, and especially so since the EU referendum of 2016, after which leaving the UK became more popular than devolution for the first time.”

    “The Union has certainly become decidedly less popular north of the border.”

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/scotland-government-support-snp-scottish-parliament-b1027278.html

    Interesting perhaps that support for devolution has fallen. Does this mean that Nicola Sturgeon's genius is to deflect blame for any perceived failures of the Scottish Government she leads onto the constitutional question? Is there a paradox that the better the Scottish Government performs, the less need will be seen for independence?
    It's a three option question about how Scotland should be governed -
    Independence
    Status Quo Devolution
    Abolish Scottish Parliament

    So as support for independence rises Status Quo Devolution must fall.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,732
    The prisoner release negotiated by Ukraine includes the Brits sentenced to death by the DNR kangaroo court, along with other Avostal defenders captured in Mariupol.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,950
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    QTWTAIN. He might scrape a tie in the Senate, and hold on to the house by a couple of seats, which would be about as “Triumphant” as Mrs May’s 2017 election. That’s Biden’s best case scenario.

    It's possible that the Democrats do a lot better than that, in the Senate at least.

    The current make up is an easy 50:50.

    There are eight seats which one can envisage flipping:

    Arizona: D to R
    Georgia: D to R
    New Hampshire: D to R
    Nevada: D to R
    North Carolina: R to D
    Ohio: R to D
    Pennsylvania: R to D
    Wisconsin: R to D

    It's entirely possible that one party almost sweeps the board here, and picks up seven of these.

    If you dig in, I think there are four of these we can probably take off the table:

    Pennsylvania, where Dr Oz has been a dreadful candidate
    Ohio, where I suspect the polls overstate Ryan's chances
    Arizona, where the consistency of the Kelly leads (and the fact he's flirting with 50% in most of them), makes him the clear favourite.
    New Hampshire, where incumbency tends to be a big factor, and the polls seem pretty consistent in predicting a Hassan hold (she has a seven point lead in the 538 poll of polls)

    This means that - to gain the Senate - the Republicans have to hold Wisconsin and North Carolina, and flip both of Georgia and Nevada.

    If I was going to call it today (and I flip flop continually on this), I would say the Republicans grab Georgia and miss out in Nevada. Which brings us back to 50-50.

    But could the Dems win Wisconsin? Yes.
    Could they win North Carolina? Yes.

    It's far from impossible that they end up winning Wisconsin, North Carolina and the two seats they are defending. In which case they end up on 53-47.
    And there's also My Boy The Most Independent Evan McMuffin in Utah who is running a respectable "above the level of straight up political grift" campaign in Utah who may have a vague shot of sniping Lee.

    If we are talking about a scenario where the Dems hold the House then he is most surely in with a chance.

    (Once again, disclaimer: I do not think the Dems hold the House)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,961
    Nigelb said:

    The prisoner release negotiated by Ukraine includes the Brits sentenced to death by the DNR kangaroo court, along with other Avostal defenders captured in Mariupol.

    What's this about Saudi Arabia being involved in this?

    And good morning one and all!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,732
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trump now claiming psychic powers of declassification.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/kyledcheney/status/1572762467473694720
    ! TRUMP to Hannity on declassifying documents:

    There doesn’t have to be a process, as I understand it. If you’re the president of the United states, you can declasify ... **even by thinking about it**"

    That won’t wash. He’d have to provide evidence he can think.
    Is he possibly trying to establish an intent defence to criminal charges of selling classified information ?
    That could land him a very long jail term.

    More likely just the usual BS, but not impossible ?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,950
    Pulpstar said:

    One thing that slightly surprises me with the current situation Russia/USA is that they're conspicuously NOT on the barred list that Iran, N Korea and Syria are.

    I imagine too many longer term contracts in existence between companies in the two countries. USA gov relying on Companies ripping up the contracts themselves rather than enforcing it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543
    Nigelb said:

    Trump now claiming psychic powers of declassification.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/kyledcheney/status/1572762467473694720
    ! TRUMP to Hannity on declassifying documents:

    There doesn’t have to be a process, as I understand it. If you’re the president of the United states, you can declasify ... **even by thinking about it**"

    “Your honor, the defendant pleads Jedi” https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1572765583367671810
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,732
    edited September 22

    Nigelb said:

    The prisoner release negotiated by Ukraine includes the Brits sentenced to death by the DNR kangaroo court, along with other Avostal defenders captured in Mariupol.

    What's this about Saudi Arabia being involved in this?

    And good morning one and all!
    I thought Erdogan was the intermediary?

    (Edit) He was, but you also appear to be right.
    🇺🇦 freed 10 foreign citizens from Russian captivity as a sign of gratitude for their help to our state. 5 citizens of 🇬🇧, 2 citizens of 🇺🇸, citizens of 🇲🇦, 🇸🇪, 🇭🇷. They’ll return home with the mediation of Saudi Arabia. I’m truly grateful to everyone who contributed to that! 3/3
    https://mobile.twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1572842494903357442
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,595
    edited September 22
    Italian Update:

    Perhaps the last one before the election.

    It is as you were, the right bloc will win a majority on all but an unheard of level of polling miss. PD, the main left bloc party, have drifted 2-3 points, M5S have had a good campaign but will nowhere near match 2018.

    On the betting markets, Meloni has tightened to a 95% chance for next PM which is no longer much value given some slight needle on points of disagreement between her and coalition partner Salvini in the last week of the campaign.

    Neither is there much value in a Most Seats market, in which FdI will win with a lot of FPTP seats, so their 1/14 and PDs 11/1 don't provide much value (now, had that been a most VOTES market, with PD polling around 3 points behind on average but still scoring the occasional poll lead, I'd have called PD value - but it isn't).

    So, sit on your money and enjoy your small change winnings if you got on Meloni next PM at 78% a few weeks ago.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,226
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    The prisoner release negotiated by Ukraine includes the Brits sentenced to death by the DNR kangaroo court, along with other Avostal defenders captured in Mariupol.

    What's this about Saudi Arabia being involved in this?

    And good morning one and all!
    I thought Erdogan was the intermediary?
    In this case it was Saudi Arabia. It'll be interesting to know the story behind that, and I wonder what they got for their role.

    Incidentally., glad to see the pregnant medic was one of those released.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,797
    Scott_xP said:

    A majority of voters - including nearly half of Tories - want higher taxes to pay for better public services.

    The findings come as Kwasi Kwarteng plans to slash taxes in tomorrow's mini-budget.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/blow-for-liz-truss-as-voters-back-higher-taxes_uk_632b1e68e4b0ed991abf9369

    That's utter bullshit. People say they want higher taxes to pay for better services until they have to pay for them. Then they squeal.like a pig.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,148
    edited September 22
    I've just received this text message from an unknown number;

    GOVUK: We have identified you as eligible for a discounted energy bill under the Energy Bills Support Scheme. You can apply here: (non-gov website)

    This stinks of a scam to me. Has anyone else had them?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,961
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    The prisoner release negotiated by Ukraine includes the Brits sentenced to death by the DNR kangaroo court, along with other Avostal defenders captured in Mariupol.

    What's this about Saudi Arabia being involved in this?

    And good morning one and all!
    I thought Erdogan was the intermediary?
    BBC story says "Saudi Arabia said it had brokered an exchange between Russia and Ukraine of 10 detainees, including five Britons."
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 34,337
    edited September 22
    Nigelb said:

    Question ... what percentage of dividends paid by UK companies are remitted overseas ?
    Anyone know ?

    Soon to be more by the look of it:

    https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1572699691896168448?t=f-DfnEa8F9XbYFoFf_ID7g&s=19
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,054
    ydoethur said:

    I've just received this text message from an unknown number;

    GOVUK: We have identified you as eligible for a discounted energy bill under the Energy Bills Support Scheme. You can apply here: (non-gov website)

    This stinks of a scam to me. Has anyone else had them?

    If the website doesn’t end in gov.uk it’s a scam.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,732

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    The prisoner release negotiated by Ukraine includes the Brits sentenced to death by the DNR kangaroo court, along with other Avostal defenders captured in Mariupol.

    What's this about Saudi Arabia being involved in this?

    And good morning one and all!
    I thought Erdogan was the intermediary?
    In this case it was Saudi Arabia. It'll be interesting to know the story behind that, and I wonder what they got for their role.

    Incidentally., glad to see the pregnant medic was one of those released.
    It seems to have been both.

    According to our agreements with
    @RTErdogan, the five released Azov commanders will be in comfortable conditions in Turkey until the end of the war. They will be able to see their families. I sincerely thank President Erdoğan for his leading role in liberating our people. 2/3

    https://mobile.twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1572842492919222272
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,961
    ydoethur said:

    I've just received this text message from an unknown number;

    GOVUK: We have identified you as eligible for a discounted energy bill under the Energy Bills Support Scheme. You can apply here: (non-gov website)

    This stinks of a scam to me. Has anyone else had them?

    A friend of my wife's, a lady in her 80s, reported receiving something similar last night. But if it isn't the government website I'd be very suspicious of it!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 54,013
    edited September 22
    ydoethur said:

    I've just received this text message from an unknown number;

    GOVUK: We have identified you as eligible for a discounted energy bill under the Energy Bills Support Scheme. You can apply here: (non-gov website)

    This stinks of a scam to me. Has anyone else had them?

    Good morning

    Scam by the looks of it

    https://www.belfastlive.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/energy-bills-text-scam-warning-24944683
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,054

    Scott_xP said:

    A majority of voters - including nearly half of Tories - want higher taxes to pay for better public services.

    The findings come as Kwasi Kwarteng plans to slash taxes in tomorrow's mini-budget.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/blow-for-liz-truss-as-voters-back-higher-taxes_uk_632b1e68e4b0ed991abf9369

    That's utter bullshit. People say they want higher taxes to pay for better services until they have to pay for them. Then they squeal.like a pig.
    They expect the higher taxes to fall on other people, usually “the rich”, where “the rich” are “those that earn more than me”.

    Those same people will also be furious at, for a random example, government policy to attract high-earners from overseas to work in the financial services industry.
  • Another day of feeling like crap. Have been ill all month, this latest 2nd round of head cold isn't clearing. Not helped by getting fitful sleep due to coughing, my fatigue levels keep finding exciting new highs :(
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,732

    I think the Conservatives (under Truss) are going to dig themselves into destruction over the next 2 years and will then be out of office for over 10+ years afterwards.

    This balloon the deficit and ignore the consequences (because Reganomics) stuff is bonkers.

    I'd support targeted measures on housing, infrastructure, education and some tax cuts to boost long-term growth - and to invest accordingly- but there's a strong whiff of ideology here and throwing tens of billions of cash at the blackjack table and hoping it comes up red inside 12-18 months isn't a responsible strategy.

    Yes.
    My problem with it is not the borrowing to fund growth, but the extraordinarily unconvincing manner in which the money is going to be deployed.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,054

    Another day of feeling like crap. Have been ill all month, this latest 2nd round of head cold isn't clearing. Not helped by getting fitful sleep due to coughing, my fatigue levels keep finding exciting new highs :(

    Oh dear, that doesn’t sound good. A dose of the covid? Hope you feel better soon.
  • Scott_xP said:

    A majority of voters - including nearly half of Tories - want higher taxes to pay for better public services.

    The findings come as Kwasi Kwarteng plans to slash taxes in tomorrow's mini-budget.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/blow-for-liz-truss-as-voters-back-higher-taxes_uk_632b1e68e4b0ed991abf9369

    That's utter bullshit. People say they want higher taxes to pay for better services until they have to pay for them. Then they squeal.like a pig.
    People wanting higher taxes for other people is not a surprise
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,595
    ydoethur said:

    I've just received this text message from an unknown number;

    GOVUK: We have identified you as eligible for a discounted energy bill under the Energy Bills Support Scheme. You can apply here: (non-gov website)

    This stinks of a scam to me. Has anyone else had them?

    Unknown number or withheld number? I'm increasingly doing my civic bit and spending the 20 seconds forwarding those to 7726 (SPAM on the keypad alphabet), so whack-a-mole can be done on the originator numbers.
  • Union has become ‘decidedly less popular’ in Scotland, report finds

    The British Social Attitudes poll attempts to discover the prevailing feelings in the UK on a number of topics, Scottish independence among them.

    … the survey shows the shifting attitudes in Scotland through the years, with support for independence rising from 27% in 1999 to 33% in 2014 – in the weeks ahead of the referendum on Scottish independence – and eventually rising to 52% last year.

    The time series also showed a drop in support for devolution as the governing structure in Scotland, from 59% in 1999 to 50% in 2014 and a further drop to just 38% last year.

    Support for not having a Scottish Parliament has remained roughly at the same rate, falling from just 10% in 1999 to 8% last year, although the figure peaked at 17% in 2004, the survey suggested.

    The authors of the report, who included polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice, pointed to the 2014 referendum and Brexit as factors for the increase in support in the past decade.

    They said: “Since 2014 there has been a marked increase in the level of support for independence, and especially so since the EU referendum of 2016, after which leaving the UK became more popular than devolution for the first time.”

    “The Union has certainly become decidedly less popular north of the border.”

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/scotland-government-support-snp-scottish-parliament-b1027278.html

    Interesting perhaps that support for devolution has fallen. Does this mean that Nicola Sturgeon's genius is to deflect blame for any perceived failures of the Scottish Government she leads onto the constitutional question? Is there a paradox that the better the Scottish Government performs, the less need will be seen for independence?
    The beauty of the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey and the British Social Attitudes Survey is that they are a very long series of standardised questions, comparable over time. They are academic exercises and are not published with the aim of, for example, selling newspapers. They are serious works, not throwaway snapshots.

    What they tell us is that there are long-term societal trends underway. Devolution was incredibly popular in Scotland during the 80s and 90s, in the period culminating in the double ‘Yes’ votes in the September 1997 referendum. But what we have witnessed since is the long, slow decline in that devolution fervour, in favour of full sovereignty. To the stage we have reached now, where independence support has totally eclipsed devolution as the preferred constitutional endpoint.

    The status quo ante - abolishing the Scottish Parliament and returning to direct rule from Westminster - is as unpopular as ever, bubbling along below 10%. Which explains why none of the main political parties advocate it.

    The decline in support for devolution is primarily a problem for the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats: it is very much their baby. Neither seems to know what to do about the Scottish Question they used to so trumpet. Labour’s standard answer is to mumble something incoherent about ‘Gordon Brown’ every six months or so. If pressed, you might still find a Lib Dem willing to mention the word ‘federalism’, sotto voce. They don’t believe it themselves, so unsurprisingly fail to convince electors.
    Yes, I get the independence thing. What puzzles me is that normal politics has remained suspended for more than a decade; it is as if all that mattered down south was Brexit, say, and there was a short while when that was true.

    The most vocal pb Scot critic of the SNP is @malcolmg and while he rails against the Scottish Government, his main complaint is that it is not seriously seeking independence.

    This is what I mean by Nicola Sturgeon's genius. Even if Scots voters are unhappy with economic or industrial decline, or health, with some areas of Glasgow in particular having low life expectancies, Sturgeon has convinced voters that none of this is due to the Scottish Government's incompetence but is all Westminster's fault so that what is needed is independence. There is not even analysis of which extra powers needed would be gained by independence because, of course, if there were, then they could be acquired through devolution. Again, of course, this mirrors the campaign for (and against) Brexit but that has now faded.
    LibDems really do believe in Federalism as a solution. The problem is that it isn't a solution to the Scottish question - you can't have "federalism" only in Scotland. And a wider constitutional debate is not happening. Despite the obvious need.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 78,852
    Sandpit said:

    QTWTAIN. He might scrape a tie in the Senate, and hold on to the house by a couple of seats, which would be about as “Triumphant” as Mrs May’s 2017 election. That’s Biden’s best case scenario.

    Given the general pattern of mid term results that would seem pretty darn good.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 54,013
    edited September 22

    Another day of feeling like crap. Have been ill all month, this latest 2nd round of head cold isn't clearing. Not helped by getting fitful sleep due to coughing, my fatigue levels keep finding exciting new highs :(

    Much how my wife and I felt in August when we had covid

    You need to be kind to yourself and rest as much as possible
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 10,220
    Alistair said:

    Union has become ‘decidedly less popular’ in Scotland, report finds

    The British Social Attitudes poll attempts to discover the prevailing feelings in the UK on a number of topics, Scottish independence among them.

    … the survey shows the shifting attitudes in Scotland through the years, with support for independence rising from 27% in 1999 to 33% in 2014 – in the weeks ahead of the referendum on Scottish independence – and eventually rising to 52% last year.

    The time series also showed a drop in support for devolution as the governing structure in Scotland, from 59% in 1999 to 50% in 2014 and a further drop to just 38% last year.

    Support for not having a Scottish Parliament has remained roughly at the same rate, falling from just 10% in 1999 to 8% last year, although the figure peaked at 17% in 2004, the survey suggested.

    The authors of the report, who included polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice, pointed to the 2014 referendum and Brexit as factors for the increase in support in the past decade.

    They said: “Since 2014 there has been a marked increase in the level of support for independence, and especially so since the EU referendum of 2016, after which leaving the UK became more popular than devolution for the first time.”

    “The Union has certainly become decidedly less popular north of the border.”

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/scotland-government-support-snp-scottish-parliament-b1027278.html

    Interesting perhaps that support for devolution has fallen. Does this mean that Nicola Sturgeon's genius is to deflect blame for any perceived failures of the Scottish Government she leads onto the constitutional question? Is there a paradox that the better the Scottish Government performs, the less need will be seen for independence?
    It's a three option question about how Scotland should be governed -
    Independence
    Status Quo Devolution
    Abolish Scottish Parliament

    So as support for independence rises Status Quo Devolution must fall.

    Not necessarily. You are assuming that Abolish Scottish Parliament will remain steady, at 10-ish percent. Although that has been true for a couple of decades, it could change in future.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 78,852
    Scott_xP said:

    A majority of voters - including nearly half of Tories - want higher taxes to pay for better public services.

    The findings come as Kwasi Kwarteng plans to slash taxes in tomorrow's mini-budget.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/blow-for-liz-truss-as-voters-back-higher-taxes_uk_632b1e68e4b0ed991abf9369

    Ah, but voters just need to understand that you can easily increase spending and lower taxes with no downsides, that's why governments have avoided doing so despite that it would be popular.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 78,852
    Foxy said:

    A Democrat win is plausible but 3/1 or 25% looks about right to me. Six weeks to go, direction of travel favours Team Biden.

    In the Senate, where we need to beware of rules around nominally independent senators caucusing with Democrats, it is possible value lies with the Republicans at odds against, if you give them anything above a 50/50 chance. There used to be long prices against the Democrats (no doubt thanks to a pb tip, I'm on at 15/2) but I'm wondering if the pendulum has not swung too far the other way.

    The trouble is, this might be a turn-out election rather than based on the normal fundamentals so polls on Biden's underwater approval ratings or the economy might mislead. Will anti-Trump legal moves fire up GOP voters more than overturning Roe vs Wade motivates pro-choice and presumably Democrat voters?

    Trumps polling gets worse and worse. I can see him being a real drag on the Republicans who have expressed Trumpite opinions.

    I certainly hope so. American democracy would struggle to survive another Trump election.
    True, though he might yet win legitimately. Hopefully he does become a drag.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,148
    edited September 22
    Pro_Rata said:

    ydoethur said:

    I've just received this text message from an unknown number;

    GOVUK: We have identified you as eligible for a discounted energy bill under the Energy Bills Support Scheme. You can apply here: (non-gov website)

    This stinks of a scam to me. Has anyone else had them?

    Unknown number or withheld number? I'm increasingly doing my civic bit and spending the 20 seconds forwarding those to 7726 (SPAM on the keypad alphabet), so whack-a-mole can be done on the originator numbers.
    Bother, I deleted them and blocked the number before I thought of that.

    Edit - Or to be exact, before you suggested it.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,950
    edited September 22
    ydoethur said:

    I've just received this text message from an unknown number;

    GOVUK: We have identified you as eligible for a discounted energy bill under the Energy Bills Support Scheme. You can apply here: (non-gov website)

    This stinks of a scam to me. Has anyone else had them?

    Saw someone on Twitter saying they had got that exact scam text. The scam website it links to is very well done, looks exactly like a gov.uk website in it's styling and layout.

    It is 100% a scam,
  • Another day of feeling like crap. Have been ill all month, this latest 2nd round of head cold isn't clearing. Not helped by getting fitful sleep due to coughing, my fatigue levels keep finding exciting new highs :(

    Much how my wife and I felt in August when we had covid

    You need to be kind to yourself and rest as much as possible
    Rest? I have a ludicrous pile of time-sensitive client work. KBO is the only possible solution. Whilst feeling more or less ropey I have had 2 days in London and a week in Romania on business. I do manage to perform when I need to, its just becoming increasingly difficult.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 4,083

    Another day of feeling like crap. Have been ill all month, this latest 2nd round of head cold isn't clearing. Not helped by getting fitful sleep due to coughing, my fatigue levels keep finding exciting new highs :(

    Much how my wife and I felt in August when we had covid

    You need to be kind to yourself and rest as much as possible
    Just joined the covid club on Tuesday. Not too bad, one really nasty night of shivers. Your point about rest is well made, but tricky with three children, two of whom have also been poorly (we were a bit concerned about number three who is only 4 months old, for a bit, but he's better now).

    Glad to have avoided this pre-vaccination. Post vaccination, I'd have to say I've felt worse for longer with other viral infections, but it's still nasty enough.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 10,220
    Car crash R4 Today interview by Thérèse Coffey.

    Perhaps…. Perhaps…. Blatant lie…. We will remove doctors’ monopoly prerogative to write prescriptions.

    Rough summary.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543
    I have low expectations of the Truss regime, but WTF is this?

    Seeing a GP in England within 2 weeks will be an "expectation" under new Govt, says new health secretary Therese Coffey (which isn't a guarantee)

    @BBCr4today


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-62987823
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,148
    Scott_xP said:

    I have low expectations of the Truss regime, but WTF is this?

    Seeing a GP in England within 2 weeks will be an "expectation" under new Govt, says new health secretary Therese Coffey (which isn't a guarantee)

    @BBCr4today


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-62987823

    That would still be an improvement on the situation around here.

    Unless you've got membership of the Chase Golf Club and Spa.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,739
    A 1% popular vote lead would likely not be enough for the Democrats to hold the House. They had an over 1% lead in 2012 but the GOP held on.

    They should hold the Senate though
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,732

    I think the Conservatives (under Truss) are going to dig themselves into destruction over the next 2 years and will then be out of office for over 10+ years afterwards.

    This balloon the deficit and ignore the consequences (because Reganomics) stuff is bonkers.

    I'd support targeted measures on housing, infrastructure, education and some tax cuts to boost long-term growth - and to invest accordingly- but there's a strong whiff of ideology here and throwing tens of billions of cash at the blackjack table and hoping it comes up red inside 12-18 months isn't a responsible strategy.

    I genuinely do not understand what the Conservative party now stands for. If you can borrow billions and billions of extra pounds to make rich people richer, as the government is planning to do, how can you possibly oppose borrowing the same money but instead using it to improve public services and infrastructure?

    I think you stumbled across the answer to your question.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,739

    Union has become ‘decidedly less popular’ in Scotland, report finds

    The British Social Attitudes poll attempts to discover the prevailing feelings in the UK on a number of topics, Scottish independence among them.

    … the survey shows the shifting attitudes in Scotland through the years, with support for independence rising from 27% in 1999 to 33% in 2014 – in the weeks ahead of the referendum on Scottish independence – and eventually rising to 52% last year.

    The time series also showed a drop in support for devolution as the governing structure in Scotland, from 59% in 1999 to 50% in 2014 and a further drop to just 38% last year.

    Support for not having a Scottish Parliament has remained roughly at the same rate, falling from just 10% in 1999 to 8% last year, although the figure peaked at 17% in 2004, the survey suggested.

    The authors of the report, who included polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice, pointed to the 2014 referendum and Brexit as factors for the increase in support in the past decade.

    They said: “Since 2014 there has been a marked increase in the level of support for independence, and especially so since the EU referendum of 2016, after which leaving the UK became more popular than devolution for the first time.”

    “The Union has certainly become decidedly less popular north of the border.”

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/scotland-government-support-snp-scottish-parliament-b1027278.html

    Though an outdated poll from last year, support for independence has fallen since

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/22292141.support-independence-queens-death-poll-suggests/
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,054
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I have low expectations of the Truss regime, but WTF is this?

    Seeing a GP in England within 2 weeks will be an "expectation" under new Govt, says new health secretary Therese Coffey (which isn't a guarantee)

    @BBCr4today


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-62987823

    That would still be an improvement on the situation around here.

    Unless you've got membership of the Chase Golf Club and Spa.
    Envy of the world, the NHS.

    (So said no-one who’s ever lived anywhere else in the developed world).
  • Selebian said:

    Another day of feeling like crap. Have been ill all month, this latest 2nd round of head cold isn't clearing. Not helped by getting fitful sleep due to coughing, my fatigue levels keep finding exciting new highs :(

    Much how my wife and I felt in August when we had covid

    You need to be kind to yourself and rest as much as possible
    Just joined the covid club on Tuesday. Not too bad, one really nasty night of shivers. Your point about rest is well made, but tricky with three children, two of whom have also been poorly (we were a bit concerned about number three who is only 4 months old, for a bit, but he's better now).

    Glad to have avoided this pre-vaccination. Post vaccination, I'd have to say I've felt worse for longer with other viral infections, but it's still nasty enough.
    Mine isn't Covid. Two rounds of head cold, with creaking sinuses followed by gunge and chesty cough. Hadn't cleared the cough of the first lot when round two came crashing in. Think I am more bleugh this morning than last couple of days because sinus creaking is quite bad and my balance has gone because of it.

    Its a family trait on my dad's side. I'm not too bad, my brother suffers with sinus issues far worse than I do.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,961

    Car crash R4 Today interview by Thérèse Coffey.

    Perhaps…. Perhaps…. Blatant lie…. We will remove doctors’ monopoly prerogative to write prescriptions.

    Rough summary.

    Pardon? Back in 1997 I taught on the first nurse prescribing program.

    Now I believe nurses can prescribe a great deal more than they could then, and pharmacists employed in GP surgeries can and do as well.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,148
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I have low expectations of the Truss regime, but WTF is this?

    Seeing a GP in England within 2 weeks will be an "expectation" under new Govt, says new health secretary Therese Coffey (which isn't a guarantee)

    @BBCr4today


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-62987823

    That would still be an improvement on the situation around here.

    Unless you've got membership of the Chase Golf Club and Spa.
    Envy of the world, the NHS.

    (So said no-one who’s ever lived anywhere else in the developed world).
    To be exact, the leading Irish party want to introduce something similar, and anyone with a brain in America should much prefer the NHS to their absolute joke of a 'system.' (That they don't says a lot and not in a good way.)

    Places like the Netherlands and Germany, I'm thinking it's not probable.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,148

    Car crash R4 Today interview by Thérèse Coffey.

    Perhaps…. Perhaps…. Blatant lie…. We will remove doctors’ monopoly prerogative to write prescriptions.

    Rough summary.

    Pardon? Back in 1997 I taught on the first nurse prescribing program.

    Now I believe nurses can prescribe a great deal more than they could then, and pharmacists employed in GP surgeries can and do as well.
    Last prescription I had was written by a nurse.

    By making nurses graduates, the government has whether deliberately or not raised them up in terms of knowledge and competency pretty close to the standards most doctors were at forty years ago.
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