We continue our strategic partnership with 🇬🇧. Congratulated PM @trussliz on her appointment. Agreed to deepen our cooperation for 🇺🇦's victory & reconstruction. Discussed preparations for the heating season. Thanked for personal support, help of 🇬🇧 and training of 🇺🇦 military.
Tallinn is hosting a series of security conferences at the moment. All of them end up with the same message: Russia is in serious trouble, and NATO needs to continue support for Ukraine.
Why is that, especially given that (non-NATO member) Ukraine is attacking right now?
The announcement of "partial" mobilization in Russia was greeted with a shrug. It is a sign of the scale of the problems that Russia faces, and as one analyst said to me "partial mobilization is like partial virginity, it doesn´t mean anything unless you go the whole way".
Or in short "Our intelligence assessment was wrong, but our d*cks are so much longer than Russian d*cks, any day of the week."
I could understand a bit of crowing from those whose intelligence assessment had been closer to the mark.
I think that recovering part of your country that has been occupied by an invader, who has slaughtered thousands, is called defending.
You don't understand conflict, then.
Edit: is it for humanitarian reasons or for reasons of British national interest that you support (assuming that you do) British state support for the Kiev government's war effort? What was your position when there was actual real genocide in Rwanda?
@Richard_Nabavi - John Redwood's Diary has him listing some 'EU red tape' he wants to go. I'd be interested to read whether you think any of these is valid.
The Business Secretary could abolish the droit du suite and VAT impositions the EU used to divert part of the global art market from London to New York.Maybe they thought it would help Paris but it just made the whole EU less competitive.
He could lower costs of buying a home by removing anti money laundering checks from any U.K. citizen buying and selling their main home and using a U.K. regulated bank. He could make energy certificates for homes a matter of choice for buyers and sellers.
He could work with Defra to use farm grants to promote growing more food here and to foster investment in more glasshouses and new farming techniques instead of subsidising wilding policies, and relying on more imports from the EU.
He could simplify the expensive bureaucracy created by the EU data protection legislation.
He could repeal the EU Ports Regulation which was widely opposed by our ports when it was introduced. It gets in the way of port investment and expansion.
He could repeal the railway rules which require the separation of track ownership from train ownership.Integrated ownership of routes by private companies should be an option.
He with the Treasury should allow more people self employed tax status, removing the penal elements of IR 35.
Most of those I absolutely support. Though some would need to be in combination with other revisions. IR35 is a bloody nightmare for contractors but the best way to get rid of it is simply to merge tax and NI which removes the need for it.
The one I think I really disagree with is repealing the on line digital tax.
Most make sense (but the IR35 one will result in the Treasury shouting Employer NI is £70bn - tell us where to get that money from).
The ones I disagree with are Anti money laundering regs - they aren't difficult to meet unless you are dodgy...
The Defra one - even if we could afford to grow the food, and note a lot of places have given up for next year because energy costs mean it's not worth it we don't have the staff to harvest it.
Tallinn is hosting a series of security conferences at the moment. All of them end up with the same message: Russia is in serious trouble, and NATO needs to continue support for Ukraine.
Why is that, especially given that (non-NATO member) Ukraine is attacking right now?
The announcement of "partial" mobilization in Russia was greeted with a shrug. It is a sign of the scale of the problems that Russia faces, and as one analyst said to me "partial mobilization is like partial virginity, it doesn´t mean anything unless you go the whole way".
Or in short "Our intelligence assessment was wrong, but our d*cks are so much longer than Russian d*cks, any day of the week."
I could understand a bit of crowing from those whose intelligence assessment had been closer to the mark.
Ukraine is not attacking, just trying to recover that part of its sovereign territory Russia invaded. Though it looks like that will halt at the Donbass given Putin's tantrum this morning and threat to use a nuclear weapon if Ukrainian forces push the Russians back any further
GB News @GBNEWS · 49s Meghan Markle and Prince Harry set to return to California without brokering a peace deal with royal family - despite 'efforts on both sides'
Yet another of the daily briefings from Team Sussex to friendly US media, over the past two weeks, about how badly they’ve been treated in the UK and by the Royal family.
Didn’t they want privacy?
Eh ? The whole thing I find a bemusing sideshow of tittle tattle but GB News definitely isn't pro woke/Harry/Meghan.
@Richard_Nabavi - John Redwood's Diary has him listing some 'EU red tape' he wants to go. I'd be interested to read whether you think any of these is valid.
The Business Secretary could abolish the droit du suite and VAT impositions the EU used to divert part of the global art market from London to New York.Maybe they thought it would help Paris but it just made the whole EU less competitive.
He could lower costs of buying a home by removing anti money laundering checks from any U.K. citizen buying and selling their main home and using a U.K. regulated bank. He could make energy certificates for homes a matter of choice for buyers and sellers.
He could work with Defra to use farm grants to promote growing more food here and to foster investment in more glasshouses and new farming techniques instead of subsidising wilding policies, and relying on more imports from the EU.
He could simplify the expensive bureaucracy created by the EU data protection legislation.
He could repeal the EU Ports Regulation which was widely opposed by our ports when it was introduced. It gets in the way of port investment and expansion.
He could repeal the railway rules which require the separation of track ownership from train ownership.Integrated ownership of routes by private companies should be an option.
He with the Treasury should allow more people self employed tax status, removing the penal elements of IR 35.
Wasn't the separation of train operators from track owners a John Major requirement in the first place? (BTW a mistake that was realised by the Stockton and Darlington Railway two centuries ago, and promptly reversed.)
AIUI Major wanted to recreate the Big 4 companies. GWR PLC would run all trains and manage their infrastructure. Some berk in the Treasury had been on a course about game strategies and insisted instead on both competition and blind bidding for franchises.
Thanks, your memory is better than mine! There would still be some running of trains on other companies' tracks, though, much more so than pre-1947, because the duplicate lines were so heavily pruned in the Beeching era as well as before and after. (For instance, you could go from Plymouth to London on the GWR or Southern Railway - until they closed much of the route roud the north of Dartmoor.)
So it's not an ideal that can be carried out 100% unless you don't bother with through trains, and make everyone get out and change where companies meet.
What also sticks out like a sore thumb is that it's a very London-centric concept - someone who only thinks in tersm of travel to/from London, which was usually on a single company's track. .
Yes, there would have been inter-regional services as there always were. Something like the Cross-Country network would be allocated to London Midland and operate into LNER, GW and Southern territories.
With franchises and concessions increasingly heading in that direction, what Major wanted made far more sense than the shitshow they created.
@Richard_Nabavi - John Redwood's Diary has him listing some 'EU red tape' he wants to go. I'd be interested to read whether you think any of these is valid.
The Business Secretary could abolish the droit du suite and VAT impositions the EU used to divert part of the global art market from London to New York.Maybe they thought it would help Paris but it just made the whole EU less competitive.
He could lower costs of buying a home by removing anti money laundering checks from any U.K. citizen buying and selling their main home and using a U.K. regulated bank. He could make energy certificates for homes a matter of choice for buyers and sellers.
He could work with Defra to use farm grants to promote growing more food here and to foster investment in more glasshouses and new farming techniques instead of subsidising wilding policies, and relying on more imports from the EU.
He could simplify the expensive bureaucracy created by the EU data protection legislation.
He could repeal the EU Ports Regulation which was widely opposed by our ports when it was introduced. It gets in the way of port investment and expansion.
He could repeal the railway rules which require the separation of track ownership from train ownership.Integrated ownership of routes by private companies should be an option.
He with the Treasury should allow more people self employed tax status, removing the penal elements of IR 35.
Wasn't the separation of train operators from track owners a John Major requirement in the first place? (BTW a mistake that was realised by the Stockton and Darlington Railway two centuries ago, and promptly reversed.)
Tallinn is hosting a series of security conferences at the moment. All of them end up with the same message: Russia is in serious trouble, and NATO needs to continue support for Ukraine.
Why is that, especially given that (non-NATO member) Ukraine is attacking right now?
The announcement of "partial" mobilization in Russia was greeted with a shrug. It is a sign of the scale of the problems that Russia faces, and as one analyst said to me "partial mobilization is like partial virginity, it doesn´t mean anything unless you go the whole way".
Or in short "Our intelligence assessment was wrong, but our d*cks are so much longer than Russian d*cks, any day of the week."
I could understand a bit of crowing from those whose intelligence assessment had been closer to the mark.
I think that recovering part of your country that has been occupied by an invader, who has slaughtered thousands, is called defending.
You don't understand conflict, then.
We understand that the defenders are currently kicking the invaders ass.
Which was long predicted here by people who understand conflict. Your beloved Russia hasn't got the logistics to win this war, Ukraine does. Ukraine will win the war, the only question is when Vlad is going to realise that or be pushed out of a window by those who do.
I was just casting an eye over the WC2022 odds (I'm supporting Belgique as the 26 Counties didn't qualify) and I reckon Argentina look like value at 8/1. They are coming to the WC on an excellent run of form and haven't lost a game for three years.
@Richard_Nabavi - John Redwood's Diary has him listing some 'EU red tape' he wants to go. I'd be interested to read whether you think any of these is valid.
The Business Secretary could abolish the droit du suite and VAT impositions the EU used to divert part of the global art market from London to New York.Maybe they thought it would help Paris but it just made the whole EU less competitive.
He could lower costs of buying a home by removing anti money laundering checks from any U.K. citizen buying and selling their main home and using a U.K. regulated bank. He could make energy certificates for homes a matter of choice for buyers and sellers.
He could work with Defra to use farm grants to promote growing more food here and to foster investment in more glasshouses and new farming techniques instead of subsidising wilding policies, and relying on more imports from the EU.
He could simplify the expensive bureaucracy created by the EU data protection legislation.
He could repeal the EU Ports Regulation which was widely opposed by our ports when it was introduced. It gets in the way of port investment and expansion.
He could repeal the railway rules which require the separation of track ownership from train ownership.Integrated ownership of routes by private companies should be an option.
He with the Treasury should allow more people self employed tax status, removing the penal elements of IR 35.
Wasn't the separation of train operators from track owners a John Major requirement in the first place? (BTW a mistake that was realised by the Stockton and Darlington Railway two centuries ago, and promptly reversed.)
AIUI Major wanted to recreate the Big 4 companies. GWR PLC would run all trains and manage their infrastructure. Some berk in the Treasury had been on a course about game strategies and insisted instead on both competition and blind bidding for franchises.
Thanks, your memory is better than mine! There would still be some running of trains on other companies' tracks, though, much more so than pre-1947, because the duplicate lines were so heavily pruned in the Beeching era as well as before and after. (For instance, you could go from Plymouth to London on the GWR or Southern Railway - until they closed much of the route roud the north of Dartmoor.)
So it's not an ideal that can be carried out 100% unless you don't bother with through trains, and make everyone get out and change where companies meet.
What also sticks out like a sore thumb is that it's a very London-centric concept - someone who only thinks in tersm of travel to/from London, which was usually on a single company's track. .
People always forget the third bit of the carve up - the train leasing companies. IIRC this is the bit where serious money has been made while Railtrack and many of the TOCs went bust or handed back franchises. Privatisation always involved big piles of cash ending up with City firms one way or another as the state was asset stripped.
Tallinn is hosting a series of security conferences at the moment. All of them end up with the same message: Russia is in serious trouble, and NATO needs to continue support for Ukraine.
Why is that, especially given that (non-NATO member) Ukraine is attacking right now?
The announcement of "partial" mobilization in Russia was greeted with a shrug. It is a sign of the scale of the problems that Russia faces, and as one analyst said to me "partial mobilization is like partial virginity, it doesn´t mean anything unless you go the whole way".
Or in short "Our intelligence assessment was wrong, but our d*cks are so much longer than Russian d*cks, any day of the week."
I could understand a bit of crowing from those whose intelligence assessment had been closer to the mark.
I think that recovering part of your country that has been occupied by an invader, who has slaughtered thousands, is called defending.
You don't understand conflict, then.
This one is a very easy conflict to understand. Russia invaded Ukraine, starting in 2014 and further on February this year.
When the Russian army stops invading Ukraine, and goes back to Russia, then the conflict will be over.
In the meantime, nearly Russian 60,000 men have lost their lives, and Putin wants to throw a few tens of thousands more into the meat grinder this winter.
@Richard_Nabavi - John Redwood's Diary has him listing some 'EU red tape' he wants to go. I'd be interested to read whether you think any of these is valid.
The Business Secretary could abolish the droit du suite and VAT impositions the EU used to divert part of the global art market from London to New York.Maybe they thought it would help Paris but it just made the whole EU less competitive.
He could lower costs of buying a home by removing anti money laundering checks from any U.K. citizen buying and selling their main home and using a U.K. regulated bank. He could make energy certificates for homes a matter of choice for buyers and sellers.
He could work with Defra to use farm grants to promote growing more food here and to foster investment in more glasshouses and new farming techniques instead of subsidising wilding policies, and relying on more imports from the EU.
He could simplify the expensive bureaucracy created by the EU data protection legislation.
He could repeal the EU Ports Regulation which was widely opposed by our ports when it was introduced. It gets in the way of port investment and expansion.
He could repeal the railway rules which require the separation of track ownership from train ownership.Integrated ownership of routes by private companies should be an option.
He with the Treasury should allow more people self employed tax status, removing the penal elements of IR 35.
Wasn't the separation of train operators from track owners a John Major requirement in the first place? (BTW a mistake that was realised by the Stockton and Darlington Railway two centuries ago, and promptly reversed.)
It was an EU requirement, to allow more competition with services and more cross-border services. There was nothing saying that both infrastructure and operators could not be state-owned, though.
EU regulation 91-440. As you say it required that infrastructure and services were owned by separate entities. It got round the State ownership by insisting that the two arms were controlled by different government departments for accounting purposes.
@Richard_Nabavi - John Redwood's Diary has him listing some 'EU red tape' he wants to go. I'd be interested to read whether you think any of these is valid.
The Business Secretary could abolish the droit du suite and VAT impositions the EU used to divert part of the global art market from London to New York.Maybe they thought it would help Paris but it just made the whole EU less competitive.
He could lower costs of buying a home by removing anti money laundering checks from any U.K. citizen buying and selling their main home and using a U.K. regulated bank. He could make energy certificates for homes a matter of choice for buyers and sellers.
He could work with Defra to use farm grants to promote growing more food here and to foster investment in more glasshouses and new farming techniques instead of subsidising wilding policies, and relying on more imports from the EU.
He could simplify the expensive bureaucracy created by the EU data protection legislation.
He could repeal the EU Ports Regulation which was widely opposed by our ports when it was introduced. It gets in the way of port investment and expansion.
He could repeal the railway rules which require the separation of track ownership from train ownership.Integrated ownership of routes by private companies should be an option.
He with the Treasury should allow more people self employed tax status, removing the penal elements of IR 35.
Wasn't the separation of train operators from track owners a John Major requirement in the first place? (BTW a mistake that was realised by the Stockton and Darlington Railway two centuries ago, and promptly reversed.)
No, it was an EU (EEC?) requirement.
Which in practice means very little. SNCF Reseau (the network) and SNCF Voyageurs (passenger rail services) are both independently owned subsidiaries within SNCF group/
Tallinn is hosting a series of security conferences at the moment. All of them end up with the same message: Russia is in serious trouble, and NATO needs to continue support for Ukraine.
Why is that, especially given that (non-NATO member) Ukraine is attacking right now?
The announcement of "partial" mobilization in Russia was greeted with a shrug. It is a sign of the scale of the problems that Russia faces, and as one analyst said to me "partial mobilization is like partial virginity, it doesn´t mean anything unless you go the whole way".
Or in short "Our intelligence assessment was wrong, but our d*cks are so much longer than Russian d*cks, any day of the week."
I could understand a bit of crowing from those whose intelligence assessment had been closer to the mark.
I think that recovering part of your country that has been occupied by an invader, who has slaughtered thousands, is called defending.
You don't understand conflict, then.
We understand that the defenders are currently kicking the invaders ass.
Which was long predicted here by people who understand conflict. Your beloved Russia hasn't got the logistics to win this war, Ukraine does. Ukraine will win the war, the only question is when Vlad is going to realise that or be pushed out of a window by those who do.
JUST IN 🚨 The packed schedule is to accommodate The Hundred.
There is only room for a T20 tournament or the Hundred....problem is EBC want to create their own IP that they can sell to venture capitalist / sell the franchises. while obviously the counties want friday night T20.
What I hate most about the hundred is that it is a less good version of the T20 blast. Almost every single tweak from the T20 is a tweak for the worse. And yes, I am 47 I'm not the target audience. But my daughters also prefer the T20 blast. (First question when we went to watch "Manchester": 'Where's Lanky?") The only tweaks for the better were a) put it on terrestrial TV (a big one, that) and b) raise the profile of the women's game.
Tallinn is hosting a series of security conferences at the moment. All of them end up with the same message: Russia is in serious trouble, and NATO needs to continue support for Ukraine.
Why is that, especially given that (non-NATO member) Ukraine is attacking right now?
The announcement of "partial" mobilization in Russia was greeted with a shrug. It is a sign of the scale of the problems that Russia faces, and as one analyst said to me "partial mobilization is like partial virginity, it doesn´t mean anything unless you go the whole way".
Or in short "Our intelligence assessment was wrong, but our d*cks are so much longer than Russian d*cks, any day of the week."
I could understand a bit of crowing from those whose intelligence assessment had been closer to the mark.
I think that recovering part of your country that has been occupied by an invader, who has slaughtered thousands, is called defending.
You don't understand conflict, then.
We understand that the defenders are currently kicking the invaders ass.
Which was long predicted here by people who understand conflict. Your beloved Russia hasn't got the logistics to win this war, Ukraine does. Ukraine will win the war, the only question is when Vlad is going to realise that or be pushed out of a window by those who do.
You're just a thug.
Respect for the original window quip BTW.
No the thugs are the rapist invaders unleashed by the supreme thug in the Kremlin.
People defending their homeland, or supporting those who do, are not in any way thugs.
Truss' main effect seems to be shoring up the Labour vote while squeezing a bit of the LD vote to her. Hardly that surprising given she was once a LD
LD mindset is not an open book to me but I wouldn't have thought that sort of biographical consideration weighed much with them.
Truss is an ex LD and ex Remainer and the polling evidence is the main swing since Boris left office and Truss replaced him is from LD to Tory, there has been virtually no movement at all between Labour and the Tories.
The last YouGov before Boris announced he was resigning had Labour 11% ahead and the LDs on 15%.
The latest Yougov has Labour still 10% ahead of the Tories under Truss but the LDs have fallen back to 10%, even below their election 2019 level of 11%
Truss' main effect seems to be shoring up the Labour vote while squeezing a bit of the LD vote to her. Hardly that surprising given she was once a LD
LD mindset is not an open book to me but I wouldn't have thought that sort of biographical consideration weighed much with them.
I would say quite the opposite for actual Lib Dems - her prior life and later conversion are decidedly offputting.
A lot of potential LD voters aren't members or activists though, and they still benefit from being a parking space for disgruntled voters who are essentially undecideds. So I would hazard a guess that the small swing back from Lib Dem to Tory is part of the same trend as the swing back from undecided to Tory. Possibly even some of the moment from the Greens who are also lower than in recent months.
We're talking small movements though. If this is the Truss bounce - and LLG is still 57-58% - then it's not a particularly strong position for a new leader. Major, Brown, May and Johnson all saw much bigger bounces on taking over mid-term.
@Richard_Nabavi - John Redwood's Diary has him listing some 'EU red tape' he wants to go. I'd be interested to read whether you think any of these is valid.
The Business Secretary could abolish the droit du suite and VAT impositions the EU used to divert part of the global art market from London to New York.Maybe they thought it would help Paris but it just made the whole EU less competitive.
He could lower costs of buying a home by removing anti money laundering checks from any U.K. citizen buying and selling their main home and using a U.K. regulated bank. He could make energy certificates for homes a matter of choice for buyers and sellers.
He could work with Defra to use farm grants to promote growing more food here and to foster investment in more glasshouses and new farming techniques instead of subsidising wilding policies, and relying on more imports from the EU.
He could simplify the expensive bureaucracy created by the EU data protection legislation.
He could repeal the EU Ports Regulation which was widely opposed by our ports when it was introduced. It gets in the way of port investment and expansion.
He could repeal the railway rules which require the separation of track ownership from train ownership.Integrated ownership of routes by private companies should be an option.
He with the Treasury should allow more people self employed tax status, removing the penal elements of IR 35.
Wasn't the separation of train operators from track owners a John Major requirement in the first place? (BTW a mistake that was realised by the Stockton and Darlington Railway two centuries ago, and promptly reversed.)
No, it was an EU (EEC?) requirement.
Which in practice means very little. SNCF Reseau (the network) and SNCF Voyageurs (passenger rail services) are both independently owned subsidiaries within SNCF group/
Nevertheless, it is still a silly rule that we are now free to set aside.
Truss' main effect seems to be shoring up the Labour vote while squeezing a bit of the LD vote to her. Hardly that surprising given she was once a LD
LD mindset is not an open book to me but I wouldn't have thought that sort of biographical consideration weighed much with them.
I would say quite the opposite for actual Lib Dems - her prior life and later conversion are decidedly offputting.
A lot of potential LD voters aren't members or activists though, and they still benefit from being a parking space for disgruntled voters who are essentially undecideds. So I would hazard a guess that the small swing back from Lib Dem to Tory is part of the same trend as the swing back from undecided to Tory. Possibly even some of the moment from the Greens who are also lower than in recent months.
We're talking small movements though. If this is the Truss bounce - and LLG is still 57-58% - then it's not a particularly strong position for a new leader. Major, Brown, May and Johnson all saw much bigger bounces on taking over mid-term.
And this is very likely the top of the "bounce". This is the week of pain where they get to be unpopular and watch the markets, commentators and voters recoil backwards in displeasure...
@Richard_Nabavi - John Redwood's Diary has him listing some 'EU red tape' he wants to go. I'd be interested to read whether you think any of these is valid.
The Business Secretary could abolish the droit du suite and VAT impositions the EU used to divert part of the global art market from London to New York.Maybe they thought it would help Paris but it just made the whole EU less competitive.
He could lower costs of buying a home by removing anti money laundering checks from any U.K. citizen buying and selling their main home and using a U.K. regulated bank. He could make energy certificates for homes a matter of choice for buyers and sellers.
He could work with Defra to use farm grants to promote growing more food here and to foster investment in more glasshouses and new farming techniques instead of subsidising wilding policies, and relying on more imports from the EU.
He could simplify the expensive bureaucracy created by the EU data protection legislation.
He could repeal the EU Ports Regulation which was widely opposed by our ports when it was introduced. It gets in the way of port investment and expansion.
He could repeal the railway rules which require the separation of track ownership from train ownership.Integrated ownership of routes by private companies should be an option.
He with the Treasury should allow more people self employed tax status, removing the penal elements of IR 35.
Wasn't the separation of train operators from track owners a John Major requirement in the first place? (BTW a mistake that was realised by the Stockton and Darlington Railway two centuries ago, and promptly reversed.)
It was an EU requirement, to allow more competition with services and more cross-border services. There was nothing saying that both infrastructure and operators could not be state-owned, though.
EU regulation 91-440. As you say it required that infrastructure and services were owned by separate entities. It got round the State ownership by insisting that the two arms were controlled by different government departments for accounting purposes.
Or, presumably, that the network had to be split up geographically - both the infrastructure and the operation.
Edit: sorry, beign dozy, was thinjking of JJ's posting not yours: referring to the EU requirement and presuming it didn't insist on geographical splitting.
JUST IN 🚨 The packed schedule is to accommodate The Hundred.
There is only room for a T20 tournament or the Hundred....problem is EBC want to create their own IP that they can sell to venture capitalist / sell the franchises. while obviously the counties want friday night T20.
What I hate most about the hundred is that it is a less good version of the T20 blast. Almost every single tweak from the T20 is a tweak for the worse. And yes, I am 47 I'm not the target audience. But my daughters also prefer the T20 blast. (First question when we went to watch "Manchester": 'Where's Lanky?") The only tweaks for the better were a) put it on terrestrial TV (a big one, that) and b) raise the profile of the women's game.
I don't like the Hundred either.
The other huge problem is neither do the superstar players.....and the ECB already putting up loads of money and yet can't get the likes of Narine / Shamsi to commit fully, instead they go off before the end of the tournament to CPL. And this will only get worse as IPL owners now own franchises in middle east and South Africa.
Tallinn is hosting a series of security conferences at the moment. All of them end up with the same message: Russia is in serious trouble, and NATO needs to continue support for Ukraine.
Why is that, especially given that (non-NATO member) Ukraine is attacking right now?
The announcement of "partial" mobilization in Russia was greeted with a shrug. It is a sign of the scale of the problems that Russia faces, and as one analyst said to me "partial mobilization is like partial virginity, it doesn´t mean anything unless you go the whole way".
Or in short "Our intelligence assessment was wrong, but our d*cks are so much longer than Russian d*cks, any day of the week."
I could understand a bit of crowing from those whose intelligence assessment had been closer to the mark.
I think that recovering part of your country that has been occupied by an invader, who has slaughtered thousands, is called defending.
You don't understand conflict, then.
We understand that the defenders are currently kicking the invaders ass.
Which was long predicted here by people who understand conflict. Your beloved Russia hasn't got the logistics to win this war, Ukraine does. Ukraine will win the war, the only question is when Vlad is going to realise that or be pushed out of a window by those who do.
You're just a thug.
Respect for the original window quip BTW.
"Quip"?
I doubt the decedents listed in this article thought it was an amusing gag, or a metaphor for something quite different
The most likely GE outcomes in order, IMO: minority Labour government; majority Tory government; majority Labour government; minority Tory government.
There needs to be a very narrow landing patch for the Tories to stay in power without a majority - it involves DUP and Tory numbers being sufficient. I'd say that is less likely than either Labour or the Tories winning an overall majority.
Yes, and three markets which should be considered for a play on your analysis:
1.87 No Overall Majority 1.77 Starmer next PM 2.86 Labour Minority
What are the views on which holds most value? I'm going with the last one.
GB News @GBNEWS · 49s Meghan Markle and Prince Harry set to return to California without brokering a peace deal with royal family - despite 'efforts on both sides'
Yet another of the daily briefings from Team Sussex to friendly US media, over the past two weeks, about how badly they’ve been treated in the UK and by the Royal family.
Didn’t they want privacy?
Eh ? The whole thing I find a bemusing sideshow of tittle tattle but GB News definitely isn't pro woke/Harry/Meghan.
@Richard_Nabavi - John Redwood's Diary has him listing some 'EU red tape' he wants to go. I'd be interested to read whether you think any of these is valid.
The Business Secretary could abolish the droit du suite and VAT impositions the EU used to divert part of the global art market from London to New York.Maybe they thought it would help Paris but it just made the whole EU less competitive.
He could lower costs of buying a home by removing anti money laundering checks from any U.K. citizen buying and selling their main home and using a U.K. regulated bank. He could make energy certificates for homes a matter of choice for buyers and sellers.
He could work with Defra to use farm grants to promote growing more food here and to foster investment in more glasshouses and new farming techniques instead of subsidising wilding policies, and relying on more imports from the EU.
He could simplify the expensive bureaucracy created by the EU data protection legislation.
He could repeal the EU Ports Regulation which was widely opposed by our ports when it was introduced. It gets in the way of port investment and expansion.
He could repeal the railway rules which require the separation of track ownership from train ownership.Integrated ownership of routes by private companies should be an option.
He with the Treasury should allow more people self employed tax status, removing the penal elements of IR 35.
Wasn't the separation of train operators from track owners a John Major requirement in the first place? (BTW a mistake that was realised by the Stockton and Darlington Railway two centuries ago, and promptly reversed.)
AIUI Major wanted to recreate the Big 4 companies. GWR PLC would run all trains and manage their infrastructure. Some berk in the Treasury had been on a course about game strategies and insisted instead on both competition and blind bidding for franchises.
Thanks, your memory is better than mine! There would still be some running of trains on other companies' tracks, though, much more so than pre-1947, because the duplicate lines were so heavily pruned in the Beeching era as well as before and after. (For instance, you could go from Plymouth to London on the GWR or Southern Railway - until they closed much of the route roud the north of Dartmoor.)
So it's not an ideal that can be carried out 100% unless you don't bother with through trains, and make everyone get out and change where companies meet.
What also sticks out like a sore thumb is that it's a very London-centric concept - someone who only thinks in tersm of travel to/from London, which was usually on a single company's track. .
Yes, there would have been inter-regional services as there always were. Something like the Cross-Country network would be allocated to London Midland and operate into LNER, GW and Southern territories.
With franchises and concessions increasingly heading in that direction, what Major wanted made far more sense than the shitshow they created.
We've done trains and war in Ukraine, so given OGH's new naming convention for the PM we could retitle the thread BR, Arms and LizT.
GB News @GBNEWS · 49s Meghan Markle and Prince Harry set to return to California without brokering a peace deal with royal family - despite 'efforts on both sides'
Yet another of the daily briefings from Team Sussex to friendly US media, over the past two weeks, about how badly they’ve been treated in the UK and by the Royal family.
Didn’t they want privacy?
Eh ? The whole thing I find a bemusing sideshow of tittle tattle but GB News definitely isn't pro woke/Harry/Meghan.
The most likely GE outcomes in order, IMO: minority Labour government; majority Tory government; majority Labour government; minority Tory government.
There needs to be a very narrow landing patch for the Tories to stay in power without a majority - it involves DUP and Tory numbers being sufficient. I'd say that is less likely than either Labour or the Tories winning an overall majority.
Yes, I'd agree with that - the only thing to bear in mind is that in a hung parliament the default is Truss stays on - Sir Keir would need to cobble together a coalition or C&S agreement to supplant her. Easy enough if (Lab + LD) or (Lab + SNP) > Con - but progressively(*) more difficult with each additional party required to make the numbers.
Apart from the bitter complaints about the fact their kids will be price/princess but not HRH. And the repeated attempts to push the King over the last few days. Who the fuck does that when someone is in mourning?
Apart from the whining that Harry first couldn’t wear his uniform & then when that was permitted that he no longer had the ER sigil that he had when he was ADC to the Queen. Despite the fact that he resigned as an ADC two years ago
Apart from calling up the US media to say that the two of them were planning to do a walkabout to look at flowers and that the cameras should all turn up to film them i their grief
The reality is they have chosen to move overseas and live their own lives. Good luck to them and don’t let the door hit you on the way out
JUST IN 🚨 The packed schedule is to accommodate The Hundred.
A 5-day Test for the women at Trent Bridge. That's good to see.
Expectation seems to be that the coronation will be in May or June next year, so hopefully that won't clash with any of the Tests.
Speculation is the Coronation might be same day as Liz2 June 2, which is day 2 of the Ireland test. If so then the late Spring BH would likely be moved to June 5 to make a long weekend of celebration.
Is "LizT" really now the accepted convention for our PM? Do we really need to distinguish her from all the other Lizes (Lizzes?) in public life right now?
Also, I'm struggling with how to pronounce it - is it meant to be Liz-tea, or Liszt as in Franz ?
JUST IN 🚨 The packed schedule is to accommodate The Hundred.
A 5-day Test for the women at Trent Bridge. That's good to see.
Expectation seems to be that the coronation will be in May or June next year, so hopefully that won't clash with any of the Tests.
Speculation is the Coronation might be same day as Liz2 June 2, which is day 2 of the Ireland test. If so then the late Spring BH would likely be moved to June 5 to make a long weekend of celebration.
Not understanding this. Why is the coronation not next month? It's not exactly going to be a surprise after the last couple of weeks.
Tallinn is hosting a series of security conferences at the moment. All of them end up with the same message: Russia is in serious trouble, and NATO needs to continue support for Ukraine.
Why is that, especially given that (non-NATO member) Ukraine is attacking right now?
The announcement of "partial" mobilization in Russia was greeted with a shrug. It is a sign of the scale of the problems that Russia faces, and as one analyst said to me "partial mobilization is like partial virginity, it doesn´t mean anything unless you go the whole way".
Or in short "Our intelligence assessment was wrong, but our d*cks are so much longer than Russian d*cks, any day of the week."
I could understand a bit of crowing from those whose intelligence assessment had been closer to the mark.
I think that recovering part of your country that has been occupied by an invader, who has slaughtered thousands, is called defending.
You don't understand conflict, then.
We understand that the defenders are currently kicking the invaders ass.
Which was long predicted here by people who understand conflict. Your beloved Russia hasn't got the logistics to win this war, Ukraine does. Ukraine will win the war, the only question is when Vlad is going to realise that or be pushed out of a window by those who do.
You're just a thug.
Respect for the original window quip BTW.
No the thugs are the rapist invaders unleashed by the supreme thug in the Kremlin.
People defending their homeland, or supporting those who do, are not in any way thugs.
JUST IN 🚨 The packed schedule is to accommodate The Hundred.
A 5-day Test for the women at Trent Bridge. That's good to see.
Expectation seems to be that the coronation will be in May or June next year, so hopefully that won't clash with any of the Tests.
Speculation is the Coronation might be same day as Liz2 June 2, which is day 2 of the Ireland test. If so then the late Spring BH would likely be moved to June 5 to make a long weekend of celebration.
Not understanding this. Why is the coronation not next month? It's not exactly going to be a surprise after the last couple of weeks.
Its usually delayed to allow an appropriate period of 'unofficial' mourning for the previous monarch
Apart from the bitter complaints about the fact their kids will be price/princess but not HRH. And the repeated attempts to push the King over the last few days. Who the fuck does that when someone is in mourning?
Apart from the whining that Harry first couldn’t wear his uniform & then when that was permitted that he no longer had the ER sigil that he had when he was ADC to the Queen. Despite the fact that he resigned as an ADC two years ago
Apart from calling up the US media to say that the two of them were planning to do a walkabout to look at flowers and that the cameras should all turn up to film them i their grief
The reality is they have chosen to move overseas and live their own lives. Good luck to them and don’t let the door hit you on the way out
It was rather ironic that the only two Royals with active military service were the only two in civilian clothes.
Every attack by the Meghan haters in the tabloids and BTL shows the wisdom of them emigrating.
KCIII would be wise to heal the divisions or it will be a very divided reign. A few uniforms and baubles is a small price to pay.
Apart from the bitter complaints about the fact their kids will be price/princess but not HRH. And the repeated attempts to push the King over the last few days. Who the fuck does that when someone is in mourning?
Apart from the whining that Harry first couldn’t wear his uniform & then when that was permitted that he no longer had the ER sigil that he had when he was ADC to the Queen. Despite the fact that he resigned as an ADC two years ago
Apart from calling up the US media to say that the two of them were planning to do a walkabout to look at flowers and that the cameras should all turn up to film them i their grief
The reality is they have chosen to move overseas and live their own lives. Good luck to them and don’t let the door hit you on the way out
Is "LizT" really now the accepted convention for our PM? Do we really need to distinguish her from all the other Lizes (Lizzes?) in public life right now?
Also, I'm struggling with how to pronounce it - is it meant to be Liz-tea, or Liszt as in Franz ?
Apart from the bitter complaints about the fact their kids will be price/princess but not HRH. And the repeated attempts to push the King over the last few days. Who the fuck does that when someone is in mourning?
Apart from the whining that Harry first couldn’t wear his uniform & then when that was permitted that he no longer had the ER sigil that he had when he was ADC to the Queen. Despite the fact that he resigned as an ADC two years ago
Apart from calling up the US media to say that the two of them were planning to do a walkabout to look at flowers and that the cameras should all turn up to film them i their grief
The reality is they have chosen to move overseas and live their own lives. Good luck to them and don’t let the door hit you on the way out
It was rather ironic that the only two Royals with active military service were the only two in civilian clothes.
Every attack by the Meghan haters in the tabloids and BTL shows the wisdom of them emigrating.
KCIII would be wise to heal the divisions or it will be a very divided reign. A few uniforms and baubles is a small price to pay.
It won't, the polls show Meghan and Harry are now almost as hated as Andrew.
Charles and William can be polite to them but otherwise should keep them at arms length and just focus on the core new royal family, them, the Queen Consort, Kate and William's children plus Anne and Edward
https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1572470348540682240 Powerful speech on Ukraine by @EmmanuelMacron last night at UNGA. He lambasted the “cynicism” of 🇷🇺 fake referenda in occupied parts of Ukr. But the core of his speech was to denounce self-proclaimed “neutral” countries who are “complicit with the cause of a new imperialism.” The war in Ukraine was a war to defend for the values of the United Nations – national sovereignty and territorial integrity, Macron said. If Russia succeded, there would be other invasions and other attempts to trample sovereignty in other parts of the world. “Those countries who pretend to a kind of non-aligned status are making a mistake and they will have a historic responsibility,” Macron said. “The risk we face today is a new partition of the world.”
@Richard_Nabavi - John Redwood's Diary has him listing some 'EU red tape' he wants to go. I'd be interested to read whether you think any of these is valid.
The Business Secretary could abolish the droit du suite and VAT impositions the EU used to divert part of the global art market from London to New York.Maybe they thought it would help Paris but it just made the whole EU less competitive.
He could lower costs of buying a home by removing anti money laundering checks from any U.K. citizen buying and selling their main home and using a U.K. regulated bank. He could make energy certificates for homes a matter of choice for buyers and sellers.
He could work with Defra to use farm grants to promote growing more food here and to foster investment in more glasshouses and new farming techniques instead of subsidising wilding policies, and relying on more imports from the EU.
He could simplify the expensive bureaucracy created by the EU data protection legislation.
He could repeal the EU Ports Regulation which was widely opposed by our ports when it was introduced. It gets in the way of port investment and expansion.
He could repeal the railway rules which require the separation of track ownership from train ownership.Integrated ownership of routes by private companies should be an option.
He with the Treasury should allow more people self employed tax status, removing the penal elements of IR 35.
Most of those I absolutely support. Though some would need to be in combination with other revisions. IR35 is a bloody nightmare for contractors but the best way to get rid of it is simply to merge tax and NI which removes the need for it.
The one I think I really disagree with is repealing the on line digital tax.
Yeah, on the IR35 one, my immediate thought was: "We left the EU. Not the Treasury."
JUST IN 🚨 The packed schedule is to accommodate The Hundred.
A 5-day Test for the women at Trent Bridge. That's good to see.
Expectation seems to be that the coronation will be in May or June next year, so hopefully that won't clash with any of the Tests.
Speculation is the Coronation might be same day as Liz2 June 2, which is day 2 of the Ireland test. If so then the late Spring BH would likely be moved to June 5 to make a long weekend of celebration.
Not understanding this. Why is the coronation not next month? It's not exactly going to be a surprise after the last couple of weeks.
Victoria 1 year Accession to coronation gap, E VII year and a half, G V 13 months, E VIII year and 4 months (G VI took the date, therefore 5 months) E II year and 4 months
@Richard_Nabavi - John Redwood's Diary has him listing some 'EU red tape' he wants to go. I'd be interested to read whether you think any of these is valid.
The Business Secretary could abolish the droit du suite and VAT impositions the EU used to divert part of the global art market from London to New York.Maybe they thought it would help Paris but it just made the whole EU less competitive.
He could lower costs of buying a home by removing anti money laundering checks from any U.K. citizen buying and selling their main home and using a U.K. regulated bank. He could make energy certificates for homes a matter of choice for buyers and sellers.
He could work with Defra to use farm grants to promote growing more food here and to foster investment in more glasshouses and new farming techniques instead of subsidising wilding policies, and relying on more imports from the EU.
He could simplify the expensive bureaucracy created by the EU data protection legislation.
He could repeal the EU Ports Regulation which was widely opposed by our ports when it was introduced. It gets in the way of port investment and expansion.
He could repeal the railway rules which require the separation of track ownership from train ownership.Integrated ownership of routes by private companies should be an option.
He with the Treasury should allow more people self employed tax status, removing the penal elements of IR 35.
On the 2nd one, Redwood seems unaware that the U.K. is a member of FATF, the Financial Action Task Force and therefore has agreed to comply with global rules to combat money laundering. Asking someone to prove that they are indeed the owner of the home they claim to be selling is not remotely onerous and does not stop the economy growing.
Redwood also appears to be unaware of the various misbehaviour by U.K. regulated banks which has given carte blanche to a variety of extremely unpleasant criminals seeking to launder their ill-gotten gains (HSBC, NatWest and others).
JUST IN 🚨 The packed schedule is to accommodate The Hundred.
A 5-day Test for the women at Trent Bridge. That's good to see.
Expectation seems to be that the coronation will be in May or June next year, so hopefully that won't clash with any of the Tests.
Speculation is the Coronation might be same day as Liz2 June 2, which is day 2 of the Ireland test. If so then the late Spring BH would likely be moved to June 5 to make a long weekend of celebration.
Not understanding this. Why is the coronation not next month? It's not exactly going to be a surprise after the last couple of weeks.
Victoria 1 year Accession to coronation gap, E VII year and a half, G V 13 months, E VIII year and 4 months (G VI took the date, therefore 5 months) E II year and 4 months
So this is rushing it.
I prefer the old days - a race to get crowned to avoid being usurped. Let all who might wear the crown race to Westminster Abbey. You could televise it, in the style of 'Race around the world' or 'Hunted'.
JUST IN 🚨 The packed schedule is to accommodate The Hundred.
A 5-day Test for the women at Trent Bridge. That's good to see.
Expectation seems to be that the coronation will be in May or June next year, so hopefully that won't clash with any of the Tests.
Speculation is the Coronation might be same day as Liz2 June 2, which is day 2 of the Ireland test. If so then the late Spring BH would likely be moved to June 5 to make a long weekend of celebration.
Not understanding this. Why is the coronation not next month? It's not exactly going to be a surprise after the last couple of weeks.
Preparation time.
It also allows time for all the dignitaries who will be coming to line up their schedules. The invite list will probably be quite similar to the funeral.
So, whatever was the power struggle inside the Kremlin last night we can assume that Putin won it or at least won it enough to give a slightly watered down version of his plan. As I said yesterday it is not obvious where the kit to equip these 300k soldiers is going to come from. It is an empty threat militarily.
As for the nuclear war threat, well no rational man would be serious about that. But the flaw in that line of reasoning is obvious.
Probably because it is either bloody awful or does not support what the government intends saying later this week.
Possibly they have not done one. That might be another reason.
According to the article the OBR have done one excluding the measures announced on Friday and have offered to do one including them but the government said no. So your first suggestions sound more likely.
Apart from the bitter complaints about the fact their kids will be price/princess but not HRH. And the repeated attempts to push the King over the last few days. Who the fuck does that when someone is in mourning?
Apart from the whining that Harry first couldn’t wear his uniform & then when that was permitted that he no longer had the ER sigil that he had when he was ADC to the Queen. Despite the fact that he resigned as an ADC two years ago
Apart from calling up the US media to say that the two of them were planning to do a walkabout to look at flowers and that the cameras should all turn up to film them i their grief
The reality is they have chosen to move overseas and live their own lives. Good luck to them and don’t let the door hit you on the way out
It was rather ironic that the only two Royals with active military service were the only two in civilian clothes.
Every attack by the Meghan haters in the tabloids and BTL shows the wisdom of them emigrating.
KCIII would be wise to heal the divisions or it will be a very divided reign. A few uniforms and baubles is a small price to pay.
It won't, the polls show Meghan and Harry are now almost as hated as Andrew.
Charles and William can be polite to them but otherwise should keep them at arms length and just focus on the core new royal family, them, the Queen Consort, Kate and William's children plus Anne and Edward
The difference between the grounds forthe claimed hatred, should suggest you that polls aren't everything. Perceived racism, and perceived unkindness to a child after unkindness to her mother, are not going to do the RF any favours at all.
Two B-52s having left from RAF Fairford this morning are currently flying up through the length of Norway. I'm sure intended to give Moscow pause for thought.
Probably because it is either bloody awful or does not support what the government intends saying later this week.
Possibly they have not done one. That might be another reason.
Can't imagine the Treasury hasn't done a forecast - it's very much plug figures in see the output.
The more likely figure is that it both looks bloody awful AND it doesn't support the government intentions - anyone with a clue knows that reducing Corporation Tax is going to do nothing at all about productivity regardless of what Professor Minford believes....
Most companies operate on the basis of take money today because they may not be there tomorrow...
Truss' main effect seems to be shoring up the Labour vote while squeezing a bit of the LD vote to her. Hardly that surprising given she was once a LD
LD mindset is not an open book to me but I wouldn't have thought that sort of biographical consideration weighed much with them.
Truss is an ex LD and ex Remainer and the polling evidence is the main swing since Boris left office and Truss replaced him is from LD to Tory, there has been virtually no movement at all between Labour and the Tories.
The last YouGov before Boris announced he was resigning had Labour 11% ahead and the LDs on 15%.
The latest Yougov has Labour still 10% ahead of the Tories under Truss but the LDs have fallen back to 10%, even below their election 2019 level of 11%
See @tims post. His is a better analysis of the movement. It isn't LD minded that are moving from LD to Con. It is the floaters that gravitate to the LDs when not happy with the other two or gravitate to anything new.
LDs aren't influenced that she used to be a LD or Remainer. If anything that will turn them off as she has turned her back on this stuff.
Probably because it is either bloody awful or does not support what the government intends saying later this week.
Possibly they have not done one. That might be another reason.
According to the article the OBR have done one excluding the measures announced on Friday and have offered to do one including them but the government said no. So your first suggestions sound more likely.
Having one excluding the measures to be announced rather defeats the point of having one to go with the measures announced.
The reports are published every six months anyway, so it won't be long until one is eventually released and that ought to have the impact of Friday's measures included.
The Taliban have announced that they will ban TikTok. Taliban's ministry of telecommunication said the popular app as well as PUBG, an online game will be banned in the country within weeks.
'TikTok has been spreading immoral and non Islamic content and videos in an Islamic country among the very vulnerable youths of Afghanistan, and we have to block it for the sake of our youths' future,'
Probably because it is either bloody awful or does not support what the government intends saying later this week.
Possibly they have not done one. That might be another reason.
Can't imagine the Treasury hasn't done a forecast - it's very much plug figures in see the output.
The more likely figure is that it both looks bloody awful AND it doesn't support the government intentions - anyone with a clue knows that reducing Corporation Tax is going to do nothing at all about productivity regardless of what Professor Minford believes....
Most companies operate on the basis of take money today because they may not be there tomorrow...
If Minford is right and Treasury orthodoxy is wrong, then doing a forecast assuming Minford is wrong proves literally nothing. Its just pure GIGO.
JUST IN 🚨 The packed schedule is to accommodate The Hundred.
A 5-day Test for the women at Trent Bridge. That's good to see.
Expectation seems to be that the coronation will be in May or June next year, so hopefully that won't clash with any of the Tests.
Speculation is the Coronation might be same day as Liz2 June 2, which is day 2 of the Ireland test. If so then the late Spring BH would likely be moved to June 5 to make a long weekend of celebration.
Not understanding this. Why is the coronation not next month? It's not exactly going to be a surprise after the last couple of weeks.
Victoria 1 year Accession to coronation gap, E VII year and a half, G V 13 months, E VIII year and 4 months (G VI took the date, therefore 5 months) E II year and 4 months
So this is rushing it.
I prefer the old days - a race to get crowned to avoid being usurped. Let all who might wear the crown race to Westminster Abbey. You could televise it, in the style of 'Race around the world' or 'Hunted'.
Truss' main effect seems to be shoring up the Labour vote while squeezing a bit of the LD vote to her. Hardly that surprising given she was once a LD
LD mindset is not an open book to me but I wouldn't have thought that sort of biographical consideration weighed much with them.
Truss is an ex LD and ex Remainer and the polling evidence is the main swing since Boris left office and Truss replaced him is from LD to Tory, there has been virtually no movement at all between Labour and the Tories.
The last YouGov before Boris announced he was resigning had Labour 11% ahead and the LDs on 15%.
The latest Yougov has Labour still 10% ahead of the Tories under Truss but the LDs have fallen back to 10%, even below their election 2019 level of 11%
See @tims post. His is a better analysis of the movement. It isn't LD minded that are moving from LD to Con. It is the floaters that gravitate to the LDs when not happy with the other two or gravitate to anything new.
LDs aren't influenced that she used to be a LD or Remainer. If anything that will turn them off as she has turned her back on this stuff.
Yes but given the LD core vote is only about 8% as 2015 and 2017 proved, the LDs cannot afford to lose those floaters who moved to them in and since 2019.
The fact Truss has failed to regain 2017 and 2019 redwall working class Tory voters who have gone back to Labour but has regained some upper middle class southern voters Boris lost to the LDs is also significant demographically. It suggests the Tory vote will be the poshest and richest it has been since Cameron in 2015. That would also reflect her policies of tax cuts for the rich.
Labour meanwhile look set to win average earners for the first time since Blair
https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1572470348540682240 Powerful speech on Ukraine by @EmmanuelMacron last night at UNGA. He lambasted the “cynicism” of 🇷🇺 fake referenda in occupied parts of Ukr. But the core of his speech was to denounce self-proclaimed “neutral” countries who are “complicit with the cause of a new imperialism.” The war in Ukraine was a war to defend for the values of the United Nations – national sovereignty and territorial integrity, Macron said. If Russia succeded, there would be other invasions and other attempts to trample sovereignty in other parts of the world. “Those countries who pretend to a kind of non-aligned status are making a mistake and they will have a historic responsibility,” Macron said. “The risk we face today is a new partition of the world.”
Macron must have spent the grandes vacances this year on a statesmanship training course. He's showed off his sharpened skills twice in the last couple of weeks.
I wonder if Merkel leaving the stage has given him the confidence to shape the narrative more. Not that he's ever notably lacked confidence.
ChrisO @ChrisO_wiki 1/ There'll be lots of commentary this morning about the logistical difficulties of Putin's announcement of a partial mobilisation. But I thought I'd add a few points, based on my own personal observations, of what it means politically and for the troops already in Ukraine.
ChrisO @ChrisO_wiki · 1h 15/ So in short, I see this move not so much as being about creating a brand new army for Russia but as creating political cover for Putin and enabling him to rest and reorganise his current depleted army over the winter. /end
@Richard_Nabavi - John Redwood's Diary has him listing some 'EU red tape' he wants to go. I'd be interested to read whether you think any of these is valid.
The Business Secretary could abolish the droit du suite and VAT impositions the EU used to divert part of the global art market from London to New York.Maybe they thought it would help Paris but it just made the whole EU less competitive.
He could lower costs of buying a home by removing anti money laundering checks from any U.K. citizen buying and selling their main home and using a U.K. regulated bank. He could make energy certificates for homes a matter of choice for buyers and sellers.
He could work with Defra to use farm grants to promote growing more food here and to foster investment in more glasshouses and new farming techniques instead of subsidising wilding policies, and relying on more imports from the EU.
He could simplify the expensive bureaucracy created by the EU data protection legislation.
He could repeal the EU Ports Regulation which was widely opposed by our ports when it was introduced. It gets in the way of port investment and expansion.
He could repeal the railway rules which require the separation of track ownership from train ownership.Integrated ownership of routes by private companies should be an option.
He with the Treasury should allow more people self employed tax status, removing the penal elements of IR 35.
Wasn't the separation of train operators from track owners a John Major requirement in the first place? (BTW a mistake that was realised by the Stockton and Darlington Railway two centuries ago, and promptly reversed.)
It was an EU requirement, to allow more competition with services and more cross-border services. There was nothing saying that both infrastructure and operators could not be state-owned, though.
EU regulation 91-440. As you say it required that infrastructure and services were owned by separate entities. It got round the State ownership by insisting that the two arms were controlled by different government departments for accounting purposes.
Or, presumably, that the network had to be split up geographically - both the infrastructure and the operation.
Edit: sorry, beign dozy, was thinjking of JJ's posting not yours: referring to the EU requirement and presuming it didn't insist on geographical splitting.
The important point was not geographical splitting but splitting infrastructure from operatorship. In the British context it was a recipe for disaster because it allowed each side to blame the other for issues and delays.
Apart from the bitter complaints about the fact their kids will be price/princess but not HRH. And the repeated attempts to push the King over the last few days. Who the fuck does that when someone is in mourning?
Apart from the whining that Harry first couldn’t wear his uniform & then when that was permitted that he no longer had the ER sigil that he had when he was ADC to the Queen. Despite the fact that he resigned as an ADC two years ago
Apart from calling up the US media to say that the two of them were planning to do a walkabout to look at flowers and that the cameras should all turn up to film them i their grief
The reality is they have chosen to move overseas and live their own lives. Good luck to them and don’t let the door hit you on the way out
It was rather ironic that the only two Royals with active military service were the only two in civilian clothes.
Every attack by the Meghan haters in the tabloids and BTL shows the wisdom of them emigrating.
KCIII would be wise to heal the divisions or it will be a very divided reign. A few uniforms and baubles is a small price to pay.
It won't, the polls show Meghan and Harry are now almost as hated as Andrew.
Charles and William can be polite to them but otherwise should keep them at arms length and just focus on the core new royal family, them, the Queen Consort, Kate and William's children plus Anne and Edward
I've been trying to avoid media for the last 12 days but some of it seeps through. Didn't the King's very first address to the nation refer to Harry and Meghan 'making their home abroad'? In other words, reminding them (and us) of their irrevocable decision to go into exile.
The only way that you can make the atomic bomb credible is precisely by not using—by keeping it out there as a kind of mysterious, awesome force. That to use it would actually cheapen it somehow.”
Apart from the bitter complaints about the fact their kids will be price/princess but not HRH. And the repeated attempts to push the King over the last few days. Who the fuck does that when someone is in mourning?
Apart from the whining that Harry first couldn’t wear his uniform & then when that was permitted that he no longer had the ER sigil that he had when he was ADC to the Queen. Despite the fact that he resigned as an ADC two years ago
Apart from calling up the US media to say that the two of them were planning to do a walkabout to look at flowers and that the cameras should all turn up to film them i their grief
The reality is they have chosen to move overseas and live their own lives. Good luck to them and don’t let the door hit you on the way out
It was rather ironic that the only two Royals with active military service were the only two in civilian clothes.
Every attack by the Meghan haters in the tabloids and BTL shows the wisdom of them emigrating.
KCIII would be wise to heal the divisions or it will be a very divided reign. A few uniforms and baubles is a small price to pay.
While I agree with the general sentiment, didn't he mention publicly his love for them in his first speech as King?
What baubles and uniforms do they want in California?
This feels like papers writing endlessly tedious - and probably made up - stories, many of them spiteful about H&M. And not a few also spiteful about the RF. This is not helped by endless interviews about the past nor his mooted autobiography. A long period of silence from both families would be a very good thing. Private disagreements need to be resolved in private or moved on from.
I think - as a general rule - once you have decided to leave a phase of your life (job, marriage, country, whatever it is) you need to minimise the amount of looking back you do. Process it, deal with it, take whatever was good from it and learn from the bad stuff and then get on with your new life. It does no good to be endlessly harping on about the past.
Charles used to do it about his childhood and it was tiresome, unfair and made him look childish and petulant rather than thoughtful. H&M would do well to learn from that. They have the life they want in California with 2 lovely children, probably nicer than the performing bear circus which so much of Royal life is, as we've seen these last 10 days. I wish them luck and happiness. But enough with the rear view wailing.
Apart from the bitter complaints about the fact their kids will be price/princess but not HRH. And the repeated attempts to push the King over the last few days. Who the fuck does that when someone is in mourning?
Apart from the whining that Harry first couldn’t wear his uniform & then when that was permitted that he no longer had the ER sigil that he had when he was ADC to the Queen. Despite the fact that he resigned as an ADC two years ago
Apart from calling up the US media to say that the two of them were planning to do a walkabout to look at flowers and that the cameras should all turn up to film them i their grief
The reality is they have chosen to move overseas and live their own lives. Good luck to them and don’t let the door hit you on the way out
It was rather ironic that the only two Royals with active military service were the only two in civilian clothes.
Every attack by the Meghan haters in the tabloids and BTL shows the wisdom of them emigrating.
KCIII would be wise to heal the divisions or it will be a very divided reign. A few uniforms and baubles is a small price to pay.
It won't, the polls show Meghan and Harry are now almost as hated as Andrew.
Charles and William can be polite to them but otherwise should keep them at arms length and just focus on the core new royal family, them, the Queen Consort, Kate and William's children plus Anne and Edward
The difference between the grounds forthe claimed hatred, should suggest you that polls aren't everything. Perceived racism, and perceived unkindness to a child after unkindness to her mother, are not going to do the RF any favours at all.
It was Meghan and Harry who chose to abandon the royal family and royal duties for California. Both have now strongly negative approval ratings with the public.
Giving Harry back his officers uniform and medals and he and Meghan back their HRH without returning to do royal duties would be far more damaging to the royals, especially with their core supporters than keeping them at arms length still
Because successive Executives have undermined Parliament, and they think they can get away with it.
If Parliament doesn't like it then they need to vote to compel the economic forecast to be published by the Treasury, and impeach any minister or official who fails to comply.
This would require sufficient Conservative MPs to act for the benefit of their constituents and Parliament, rather than their party (and the same for Labour MPs during any future Labour government) otherwise the power of Parliament to scrutinise the Executive will be further eroded.
Truss' main effect seems to be shoring up the Labour vote while squeezing a bit of the LD vote to her. Hardly that surprising given she was once a LD
LD mindset is not an open book to me but I wouldn't have thought that sort of biographical consideration weighed much with them.
Truss is an ex LD and ex Remainer and the polling evidence is the main swing since Boris left office and Truss replaced him is from LD to Tory, there has been virtually no movement at all between Labour and the Tories.
The last YouGov before Boris announced he was resigning had Labour 11% ahead and the LDs on 15%.
The latest Yougov has Labour still 10% ahead of the Tories under Truss but the LDs have fallen back to 10%, even below their election 2019 level of 11%
See @tims post. His is a better analysis of the movement. It isn't LD minded that are moving from LD to Con. It is the floaters that gravitate to the LDs when not happy with the other two or gravitate to anything new.
LDs aren't influenced that she used to be a LD or Remainer. If anything that will turn them off as she has turned her back on this stuff.
Yes but given the LD core vote is only about 8% as 2015 and 2017 proved, the LDs cannot afford to lose those floaters who moved to them in and since 2019.
The fact Truss has failed to regain 2017 and 2019 redwall working class Tory voters who have gone back to Labour but has regained some middle class southern voters Boris lost to the LDs is also significant demographically. It suggests the Tory vote will be the poshest and richest it has been since Cameron in 2015. That would also reflect her policies of tax cuts for the rich.
Labour meanwhile look set to win average earners for the first time since Blair
The Lib Dem vote is a coalition like all other parties' votes, even the Greens. My sense is it's made up of:
- A core liberal vote - The disillusioned former Tory Remain vote - Labour-inclined tactical voters - Green-inclined tactical voters - A few anti-SNP tactical voters - non-partisan voters who like the local MP - None of the above vote / undecideds
I'd put its national polling ceiling around 15% and local election ceiling closer to 20%.
Probably because it is either bloody awful or does not support what the government intends saying later this week.
Possibly they have not done one. That might be another reason.
Can't imagine the Treasury hasn't done a forecast - it's very much plug figures in see the output.
The more likely figure is that it both looks bloody awful AND it doesn't support the government intentions - anyone with a clue knows that reducing Corporation Tax is going to do nothing at all about productivity regardless of what Professor Minford believes....
Most companies operate on the basis of take money today because they may not be there tomorrow...
If Minford is right and Treasury orthodoxy is wrong, then doing a forecast assuming Minford is wrong proves literally nothing. Its just pure GIGO.
There may be a lot to criticise in Treasury orthodoxy but the idea of a Treasury vs Minford dichotomy as if he was Maynard Keynes feels terrifying.
Apart from the bitter complaints about the fact their kids will be price/princess but not HRH. And the repeated attempts to push the King over the last few days. Who the fuck does that when someone is in mourning?
Apart from the whining that Harry first couldn’t wear his uniform & then when that was permitted that he no longer had the ER sigil that he had when he was ADC to the Queen. Despite the fact that he resigned as an ADC two years ago
Apart from calling up the US media to say that the two of them were planning to do a walkabout to look at flowers and that the cameras should all turn up to film them i their grief
The reality is they have chosen to move overseas and live their own lives. Good luck to them and don’t let the door hit you on the way out
It was rather ironic that the only two Royals with active military service were the only two in civilian clothes.
Every attack by the Meghan haters in the tabloids and BTL shows the wisdom of them emigrating.
KCIII would be wise to heal the divisions or it will be a very divided reign. A few uniforms and baubles is a small price to pay.
It won't, the polls show Meghan and Harry are now almost as hated as Andrew.
Charles and William can be polite to them but otherwise should keep them at arms length and just focus on the core new royal family, them, the Queen Consort, Kate and William's children plus Anne and Edward
A King disowning his son is not a good look.
As I hinted in my Sunday piece, Meghan should bite her tongue, and Charles reconcile with his son. Otherwise it will dog his reign throughout. Best do it soon, so all sorted by the Coronation.
Tax cuts disproportionately benefit tax payers. What a shock.
Why not just increase taxes to 100% if that's your point of view, as anything less than that "disproportionately benefits" the rich.
Trickle down economics doesn’t work. Tax cuts for the rich aren’t going to massively increase growth, so they will increase the deficit, which will weaken the pound and lead to further inflation, making everyone poorer. Unless, of course, you slash public services. You think it takes a long time to get a GP appointment now? Wait until we’re further into Truss’s premiership.
Counter-cyclical taxation policies work if you invest in the country. The Government isn’t doing anything to improve productivity. It’s just inflating house prices with a stamp duty cut and encouraging unsafe financial systems through deregulation.
Truss isn't doing "tax cuts for the rich" or "trickle down economics" though, she's doing tax cuts for tax payers. Trickle down is when you only cut the rates of tax for the highest tax payers, rather than cutting everybody's tax which is what reversing the NI hike does.
Cutting everyone's tax does work, tax rises don't work, they strangle the economy and don't raise the revenues expected.
One can, of course, cut or raise taxes in a broad variety of ways. There are taxes that nearly everybody pays, like VAT, and there are taxes that are paid by a smaller proportion of the population, like inheritance tax or tobacco duty. Is there a particular group that benefit the most from Truss’s plans? Yes. Those on the highest incomes.
What of her other plans? How is a stamp duty cut benefitting everybody, when so many can’t even get on the property ladder? How is increasing bankers’ bonuses benefitting everybody?
Some will get the benefits, but we all pay the price of a massively increased deficit.
There are taxes that are paid by those who work for a living, like National Insurance.
There are taxes that are paid by those who are trying to get on the housing ladder, or engaged in labour mobility, like SDLT.
If you want to tax wealth, then taxing those who are working for a living is the worst place to start. Wealthy people who make their money from unearned incomes are not the ones benefiting from these tax changes.
Wealthy people who make their money from unearned incomes benefit from a stamp duty cut, as they’re more likely to be buying/selling property than the average person.
Were Truss planning to cut NI while also increasing wealth taxes so as to balance the budget, that would be one thing… but she’s not. She’s cutting taxes and raising borrowing. You keep sidestepping this point. Your answers never talk about the deficit or inflation.
The deficit is all Gordon Brown's fault, silly.
That was 14 years and at least 1 recession ago....
On the point above, a Stamp Duty cut does not benefit everybody - it benefits home owners, who by definition are the wealthier members of society.
On the last point, a fair amount of things *are* Gordon Brown's fault.
His habit was to borrow from future generations up to and including his grand children's generation (see PFI contracts) to spend it now, so we can't really divorce him from his shadow. In the case of PFI, his off-balance sheet shadow.
Currently, for example, my local NHS Trust is spending more than 5% of its total budget servicing its PFI scheme.
In general terms, how many more NHS staff and services can you get for £22 million a year?
PFI is the thing that everyone forgets but that we are still paying for today. A lot of people laud the new hospitals New Labour built, but mostly it was PFI. How many laud that but criticize Truss for deffering costs to the future for energy?
I think that's a very good point, and I think we need to see how La Truss is going to deal with the overhang.
It also perhaps depends on what the interest rate will be, and how long it will take, plus perhaps what the energy market reforms do.
I will be very happy if the reforms to decouple renewable electricity prices from gas prices, also include an element of funding a much larger ECO4 programme (ECO having been the simplest and most effective element of our insulation / energy strategy), and incorporate recovery of borrowing - if that is how the Energy Support package is funded.
A differentially higher rate of STLD for poor quality housing by energy rating would also be good.
Truss' main effect seems to be shoring up the Labour vote while squeezing a bit of the LD vote to her. Hardly that surprising given she was once a LD
LD mindset is not an open book to me but I wouldn't have thought that sort of biographical consideration weighed much with them.
I would say quite the opposite for actual Lib Dems - her prior life and later conversion are decidedly offputting.
A lot of potential LD voters aren't members or activists though, and they still benefit from being a parking space for disgruntled voters who are essentially undecideds. So I would hazard a guess that the small swing back from Lib Dem to Tory is part of the same trend as the swing back from undecided to Tory. Possibly even some of the moment from the Greens who are also lower than in recent months.
We're talking small movements though. If this is the Truss bounce - and LLG is still 57-58% - then it's not a particularly strong position for a new leader. Major, Brown, May and Johnson all saw much bigger bounces on taking over mid-term.
And this is very likely the top of the "bounce". This is the week of pain where they get to be unpopular and watch the markets, commentators and voters recoil backwards in displeasure...
I disagree on that. Over the next couple of days Truss is going to seize the domestic agenda for good or ill. If people like it, that is when we will see the bounce.
Personally, I am quite pleased that a lot of the gesture politics of the last government is being dropped, the withdrawal from the ECHR, the "privatisation" of C4 and the refusal to speak to the rail unions. If we have a more pragmatic government focused on things that actually matter rather than gestures that will be a good thing. I hope this includes a more constructive approach to relations with the EU too.
Two B-52s having left from RAF Fairford this morning are currently flying up through the length of Norway. I'm sure intended to give Moscow pause for thought.
There’s been a few of those around Eastern Europe recently, last couple of weeks.
A step up from the usual NATO surveillance planes and drones hanging around the Ukraine borders, that have been a feature of this conflict, just to remind Putin who he’s up against.
The occasional airbourne USAF F-35 too, just in case something needs shooting down in a hurry. Can’t see that one up today though - but that doesn’t mean it’s not there!
Truss' main effect seems to be shoring up the Labour vote while squeezing a bit of the LD vote to her. Hardly that surprising given she was once a LD
LD mindset is not an open book to me but I wouldn't have thought that sort of biographical consideration weighed much with them.
Truss is an ex LD and ex Remainer and the polling evidence is the main swing since Boris left office and Truss replaced him is from LD to Tory, there has been virtually no movement at all between Labour and the Tories.
The last YouGov before Boris announced he was resigning had Labour 11% ahead and the LDs on 15%.
The latest Yougov has Labour still 10% ahead of the Tories under Truss but the LDs have fallen back to 10%, even below their election 2019 level of 11%
See @tims post. His is a better analysis of the movement. It isn't LD minded that are moving from LD to Con. It is the floaters that gravitate to the LDs when not happy with the other two or gravitate to anything new.
LDs aren't influenced that she used to be a LD or Remainer. If anything that will turn them off as she has turned her back on this stuff.
Yes but given the LD core vote is only about 8% as 2015 and 2017 proved, the LDs cannot afford to lose those floaters who moved to them in and since 2019.
The fact Truss has failed to regain 2017 and 2019 redwall working class Tory voters who have gone back to Labour but has regained some upper middle class southern voters Boris lost to the LDs is also significant demographically. It suggests the Tory vote will be the poshest and richest it has been since Cameron in 2015. That would also reflect her policies of tax cuts for the rich.
Labour meanwhile look set to win average earners for the first time since Blair
Those who thought you would rapidly fall in love with Truss once she became Leader have been proved wrong thus far, haven't they? Your contempt is barely concealed.
Probably because it is either bloody awful or does not support what the government intends saying later this week.
Possibly they have not done one. That might be another reason.
Can't imagine the Treasury hasn't done a forecast - it's very much plug figures in see the output.
The more likely figure is that it both looks bloody awful AND it doesn't support the government intentions - anyone with a clue knows that reducing Corporation Tax is going to do nothing at all about productivity regardless of what Professor Minford believes....
Most companies operate on the basis of take money today because they may not be there tomorrow...
If Minford is right and Treasury orthodoxy is wrong, then doing a forecast assuming Minford is wrong proves literally nothing. Its just pure GIGO.
There may be a lot to criticise in Treasury orthodoxy but the idea of a Treasury vs Minford dichotomy as if he was Maynard Keynes feels terrifying.
You can argue that Minford is wrong if you like, but the idea that modelling that he is wrong proves that he is wrong is no more plausible than modelling that not locking down at Christmas 2021 would be a disaster proves that.
Some people put far too much faith in the output models, without thinking through what assumptions are put into those models. If your assumptions are wrong, you model is a glorified version of that mistake.
Probably because it is either bloody awful or does not support what the government intends saying later this week.
Possibly they have not done one. That might be another reason.
According to the article the OBR have done one excluding the measures announced on Friday and have offered to do one including them but the government said no. So your first suggestions sound more likely.
Having one excluding the measures to be announced rather defeats the point of having one to go with the measures announced.
The reports are published every six months anyway, so it won't be long until one is eventually released and that ought to have the impact of Friday's measures included.
I assume the forecast excluded the measures because the government hasn't told the OBR what the measures are. The government could have had the OBR draw up a forecast including the measures to allow for an informed debate of their policy choices, but have decided not to. I think we can all draw our own conclusions from that decision.
@Richard_Nabavi - John Redwood's Diary has him listing some 'EU red tape' he wants to go. I'd be interested to read whether you think any of these is valid.
The Business Secretary could abolish the droit du suite and VAT impositions the EU used to divert part of the global art market from London to New York.Maybe they thought it would help Paris but it just made the whole EU less competitive.
He could lower costs of buying a home by removing anti money laundering checks from any U.K. citizen buying and selling their main home and using a U.K. regulated bank. He could make energy certificates for homes a matter of choice for buyers and sellers.
He could work with Defra to use farm grants to promote growing more food here and to foster investment in more glasshouses and new farming techniques instead of subsidising wilding policies, and relying on more imports from the EU.
He could simplify the expensive bureaucracy created by the EU data protection legislation.
He could repeal the EU Ports Regulation which was widely opposed by our ports when it was introduced. It gets in the way of port investment and expansion.
He could repeal the railway rules which require the separation of track ownership from train ownership.Integrated ownership of routes by private companies should be an option.
He with the Treasury should allow more people self employed tax status, removing the penal elements of IR 35.
Wasn't the separation of train operators from track owners a John Major requirement in the first place? (BTW a mistake that was realised by the Stockton and Darlington Railway two centuries ago, and promptly reversed.)
It was an EU requirement, to allow more competition with services and more cross-border services. There was nothing saying that both infrastructure and operators could not be state-owned, though.
EU regulation 91-440. As you say it required that infrastructure and services were owned by separate entities. It got round the State ownership by insisting that the two arms were controlled by different government departments for accounting purposes.
Or, presumably, that the network had to be split up geographically - both the infrastructure and the operation.
Edit: sorry, beign dozy, was thinjking of JJ's posting not yours: referring to the EU requirement and presuming it didn't insist on geographical splitting.
The important point was not geographical splitting but splitting infrastructure from operatorship. In the British context it was a recipe for disaster because it allowed each side to blame the other for issues and delays.
Actually, delay attribution (which is what you mean) has been a big bonus for the railways, as it forces the various companies to try to minimise delays. Those Temporary Speed Restrictions that have been in place for ten years? Gone, as it is more expensive to pay the compensation than fix them. So they get fixed. Those locomotives that break down every 100 hours? Fixed or replaced, as the operator does not want to pay the compensation.
AIUI BR was actually moving towards delay attribution internally - you really need computerisation for it to work.
This is not an argument against renationalisaiton; it is an argument against getting rid of delay attribution.
Quite a slick campaign launch video from the Labour candidate in Finchley & Golders Green. She comes across as someone who sees herself as a future leader.
Probably because it is either bloody awful or does not support what the government intends saying later this week.
Possibly they have not done one. That might be another reason.
According to the article the OBR have done one excluding the measures announced on Friday and have offered to do one including them but the government said no. So your first suggestions sound more likely.
Having one excluding the measures to be announced rather defeats the point of having one to go with the measures announced.
The reports are published every six months anyway, so it won't be long until one is eventually released and that ought to have the impact of Friday's measures included.
I assume the forecast excluded the measures because the government hasn't told the OBR what the measures are. The government could have had the OBR draw up a forecast including the measures to allow for an informed debate of their policy choices, but have decided not to. I think we can all draw our own conclusions from that decision.
Yes that the Government hasn't had the time to do so. The OBR needs time to draw up the Forecast.
The Government was only formed two weeks ago yesterday, in fact many of the appointments were made two weeks ago today, and it was effectively shut down and put into a period of mourning two weeks ago tomorrow. That mourning period only ended yesterday and now the announcement is happening on Friday.
If the Government were to give the OBR time to draw up a forecast that would mean no announcement and no support for another month. Be honest, you wouldn't praise them for being quiet for another month, would you?
Apart from the bitter complaints about the fact their kids will be price/princess but not HRH. And the repeated attempts to push the King over the last few days. Who the fuck does that when someone is in mourning?
Apart from the whining that Harry first couldn’t wear his uniform & then when that was permitted that he no longer had the ER sigil that he had when he was ADC to the Queen. Despite the fact that he resigned as an ADC two years ago
Apart from calling up the US media to say that the two of them were planning to do a walkabout to look at flowers and that the cameras should all turn up to film them i their grief
The reality is they have chosen to move overseas and live their own lives. Good luck to them and don’t let the door hit you on the way out
It was rather ironic that the only two Royals with active military service were the only two in civilian clothes.
Every attack by the Meghan haters in the tabloids and BTL shows the wisdom of them emigrating.
KCIII would be wise to heal the divisions or it will be a very divided reign. A few uniforms and baubles is a small price to pay.
It won't, the polls show Meghan and Harry are now almost as hated as Andrew.
Charles and William can be polite to them but otherwise should keep them at arms length and just focus on the core new royal family, them, the Queen Consort, Kate and William's children plus Anne and Edward
The difference between the grounds forthe claimed hatred, should suggest you that polls aren't everything. Perceived racism, and perceived unkindness to a child after unkindness to her mother, are not going to do the RF any favours at all.
I assume "perceived" here means "statements unsupported by evidence".
There are very few established facts about all these allegations. The few that are known do not tend to support the allegations of bad behaviour by the RF and some clearly contradict some of the things said.
If I were to review this as a professional investigator and list out all the allegations and statements and review the evidence, the facts would, I suspect, look somewhat different to the stories which people have in their heads, regardless of which "side" anyone is on.
But facts now seem irrelevant.
I will say that some of the press stories have been silly, ridiculous and spiteful. Ditto the gutters of social media. I can well see how upsetting they could be. Though really it is very easy indeed to avoid reading English tabloids and the loonier fringes of social media, even in the U.K. let alone thousands of miles away.
[Translated] Former rector of the Moscow Aviation Institute (MAI) Anatoly Gerashchenko died in an accident, reports The Moscow Post correspondent .
It is reported that the tragic accident occurred on the afternoon of Tuesday, September 21. Gerashchenko was at the Moscow Aviation Institute and descended the stairs. At one point, something went wrong, the scientist fell and flew several flights. He received injuries incompatible with life. Arriving ambulance officers ascertained the death of Gerashchenko.
Quite a slick campaign launch video from the Labour candidate in Finchley & Golders Green. She comes across as someone who sees herself as a future leader.
[Translated] Former rector of the Moscow Aviation Institute (MAI) Anatoly Gerashchenko died in an accident, reports The Moscow Post correspondent .
It is reported that the tragic accident occurred on the afternoon of Tuesday, September 21. Gerashchenko was at the Moscow Aviation Institute and descended the stairs. At one point, something went wrong, the scientist fell and flew several flights. He received injuries incompatible with life. Arriving ambulance officers ascertained the death of Gerashchenko.
Quite a slick campaign launch video from the Labour candidate in Finchley & Golders Green. She comes across as someone who sees herself as a future leader.
Apart from the bitter complaints about the fact their kids will be price/princess but not HRH. And the repeated attempts to push the King over the last few days. Who the fuck does that when someone is in mourning?
Apart from the whining that Harry first couldn’t wear his uniform & then when that was permitted that he no longer had the ER sigil that he had when he was ADC to the Queen. Despite the fact that he resigned as an ADC two years ago
Apart from calling up the US media to say that the two of them were planning to do a walkabout to look at flowers and that the cameras should all turn up to film them i their grief
The reality is they have chosen to move overseas and live their own lives. Good luck to them and don’t let the door hit you on the way out
It was rather ironic that the only two Royals with active military service were the only two in civilian clothes.
Every attack by the Meghan haters in the tabloids and BTL shows the wisdom of them emigrating.
KCIII would be wise to heal the divisions or it will be a very divided reign. A few uniforms and baubles is a small price to pay.
It won't, the polls show Meghan and Harry are now almost as hated as Andrew.
Charles and William can be polite to them but otherwise should keep them at arms length and just focus on the core new royal family, them, the Queen Consort, Kate and William's children plus Anne and Edward
A King disowning his son is not a good look.
As I hinted in my Sunday piece, Meghan should bite her tongue, and Charles reconcile with his son. Otherwise it will dog his reign throughout. Best do it soon, so all sorted by the Coronation.
Truss' main effect seems to be shoring up the Labour vote while squeezing a bit of the LD vote to her. Hardly that surprising given she was once a LD
LD mindset is not an open book to me but I wouldn't have thought that sort of biographical consideration weighed much with them.
Truss is an ex LD and ex Remainer and the polling evidence is the main swing since Boris left office and Truss replaced him is from LD to Tory, there has been virtually no movement at all between Labour and the Tories.
The last YouGov before Boris announced he was resigning had Labour 11% ahead and the LDs on 15%.
The latest Yougov has Labour still 10% ahead of the Tories under Truss but the LDs have fallen back to 10%, even below their election 2019 level of 11%
See @tims post. His is a better analysis of the movement. It isn't LD minded that are moving from LD to Con. It is the floaters that gravitate to the LDs when not happy with the other two or gravitate to anything new.
LDs aren't influenced that she used to be a LD or Remainer. If anything that will turn them off as she has turned her back on this stuff.
Yes but given the LD core vote is only about 8% as 2015 and 2017 proved, the LDs cannot afford to lose those floaters who moved to them in and since 2019.
The fact Truss has failed to regain 2017 and 2019 redwall working class Tory voters who have gone back to Labour but has regained some upper middle class southern voters Boris lost to the LDs is also significant demographically. It suggests the Tory vote will be the poshest and richest it has been since Cameron in 2015. That would also reflect her policies of tax cuts for the rich.
Labour meanwhile look set to win average earners for the first time since Blair
Well that is life. If we could stop people changing how they would vote we would never lose an election. It is natural for out and out floaters to move when something new comes along. If Truss cocks up they will move back. If not she keeps them.
I would actually put the true core LD vote below 8%.
Apart from the bitter complaints about the fact their kids will be price/princess but not HRH. And the repeated attempts to push the King over the last few days. Who the fuck does that when someone is in mourning?
Apart from the whining that Harry first couldn’t wear his uniform & then when that was permitted that he no longer had the ER sigil that he had when he was ADC to the Queen. Despite the fact that he resigned as an ADC two years ago
Apart from calling up the US media to say that the two of them were planning to do a walkabout to look at flowers and that the cameras should all turn up to film them i their grief
The reality is they have chosen to move overseas and live their own lives. Good luck to them and don’t let the door hit you on the way out
It was rather ironic that the only two Royals with active military service were the only two in civilian clothes.
Every attack by the Meghan haters in the tabloids and BTL shows the wisdom of them emigrating.
KCIII would be wise to heal the divisions or it will be a very divided reign. A few uniforms and baubles is a small price to pay.
It won't, the polls show Meghan and Harry are now almost as hated as Andrew.
Charles and William can be polite to them but otherwise should keep them at arms length and just focus on the core new royal family, them, the Queen Consort, Kate and William's children plus Anne and Edward
The difference between the grounds forthe claimed hatred, should suggest you that polls aren't everything. Perceived racism, and perceived unkindness to a child after unkindness to her mother, are not going to do the RF any favours at all.
It was Meghan and Harry who chose to abandon the royal family and royal duties for California. Both have now strongly negative approval ratings with the public.
Giving Harry back his officers uniform and medals and he and Meghan back their HRH without returning to do royal duties would be far more damaging to the royals, especially with their core supporters than keeping them at arms length still
Yes, obviously
as with the tories and the C of E you define the core as essentially the haters and place yourself in it. Anyone genuinely concerned for the family would be thinking there's nothing sadder than inter family rifts, and hoping they can be resolved.
[Translated] Former rector of the Moscow Aviation Institute (MAI) Anatoly Gerashchenko died in an accident, reports The Moscow Post correspondent .
It is reported that the tragic accident occurred on the afternoon of Tuesday, September 21. Gerashchenko was at the Moscow Aviation Institute and descended the stairs. At one point, something went wrong, the scientist fell and flew several flights. He received injuries incompatible with life. Arriving ambulance officers ascertained the death of Gerashchenko.
[Translated] Former rector of the Moscow Aviation Institute (MAI) Anatoly Gerashchenko died in an accident, reports The Moscow Post correspondent .
It is reported that the tragic accident occurred on the afternoon of Tuesday, September 21. Gerashchenko was at the Moscow Aviation Institute and descended the stairs. At one point, something went wrong, the scientist fell and flew several flights. He received injuries incompatible with life. Arriving ambulance officers ascertained the death of Gerashchenko.
Comments
We continue our strategic partnership with 🇬🇧. Congratulated PM @trussliz on her appointment. Agreed to deepen our cooperation for 🇺🇦's victory & reconstruction. Discussed preparations for the heating season. Thanked for personal support, help of 🇬🇧 and training of 🇺🇦 military.
https://twitter.com/denys_shmyhal/status/1572526057756184577
Frank Muir, reveal your card.........
Edit: is it for humanitarian reasons or for reasons of British national interest that you support (assuming that you do) British state support for the Kiev government's war effort? What was your position when there was actual real genocide in Rwanda?
The ones I disagree with are Anti money laundering regs - they aren't difficult to meet unless you are dodgy...
The Defra one - even if we could afford to grow the food, and note a lot of places have given up for next year because energy costs mean it's not worth it we don't have the staff to harvest it.
With franchises and concessions increasingly heading in that direction, what Major wanted made far more sense than the shitshow they created.
Which was long predicted here by people who understand conflict. Your beloved Russia hasn't got the logistics to win this war, Ukraine does. Ukraine will win the war, the only question is when Vlad is going to realise that or be pushed out of a window by those who do.
Privatisation always involved big piles of cash ending up with City firms one way or another as the state was asset stripped.
When the Russian army stops invading Ukraine, and goes back to Russia, then the conflict will be over.
In the meantime, nearly Russian 60,000 men have lost their lives, and Putin wants to throw a few tens of thousands more into the meat grinder this winter.
Respect for the original window quip BTW.
And yes, I am 47 I'm not the target audience. But my daughters also prefer the T20 blast. (First question when we went to watch "Manchester": 'Where's Lanky?")
The only tweaks for the better were a) put it on terrestrial TV (a big one, that) and b) raise the profile of the women's game.
People defending their homeland, or supporting those who do, are not in any way thugs.
Your projectionism is quite transparent Vlad.
The last YouGov before Boris announced he was resigning had Labour 11% ahead and the LDs on 15%.
The latest Yougov has Labour still 10% ahead of the Tories under Truss but the LDs have fallen back to 10%, even below their election 2019 level of 11%
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
Expectation seems to be that the coronation will be in May or June next year, so hopefully that won't clash with any of the Tests.
A lot of potential LD voters aren't members or activists though, and they still benefit from being a parking space for disgruntled voters who are essentially undecideds. So I would hazard a guess that the small swing back from Lib Dem to Tory is part of the same trend as the swing back from undecided to Tory. Possibly even some of the moment from the Greens who are also lower than in recent months.
We're talking small movements though. If this is the Truss bounce - and LLG is still 57-58% - then it's not a particularly strong position for a new leader. Major, Brown, May and Johnson all saw much bigger bounces on taking over mid-term.
Edit: sorry, beign dozy, was thinjking of JJ's posting not yours: referring to the EU requirement and presuming it didn't insist on geographical splitting.
The other huge problem is neither do the superstar players.....and the ECB already putting up loads of money and yet can't get the likes of Narine / Shamsi to commit fully, instead they go off before the end of the tournament to CPL. And this will only get worse as IPL owners now own franchises in middle east and South Africa.
I doubt the decedents listed in this article thought it was an amusing gag, or a metaphor for something quite different
https://www.newsweek.com/russians-keep-mysteriously-falling-windows-deaths-1738954
Here you go
https://www.irishexaminer.com/opinion/columnists/arid-20108946.html
1.87 No Overall Majority
1.77 Starmer next PM
2.86 Labour Minority
What are the views on which holds most value? I'm going with the last one.
Here all week.
(*) pun intended...
Re Meghan
All sweetness and light
Apart from the bitter complaints about the fact their kids will be price/princess but not HRH. And the repeated attempts to push the King over the last few days. Who the fuck does that when someone is in mourning?
Apart from the whining that Harry first couldn’t wear his uniform & then when that was permitted that he no longer had the ER sigil that he had when he was ADC to the Queen. Despite the fact that he resigned as an ADC two years ago
Apart from calling up the US media to say that the two of them were planning to do a walkabout to look at flowers and that the cameras should all turn up to film them i their grief
The reality is they have chosen to move overseas and live their own lives. Good luck to them and don’t let the door hit you on the way out
Also, I'm struggling with how to pronounce it - is it meant to be Liz-tea, or Liszt as in Franz ?
Thu-Mon
Fri-Tue
(week off)
Thu-Mon
Fri-Tue
(week off)
Thu-Mon
Scoop: UK to drop proposed fur and foie gras import ban
https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-fur-foie-gras-import-ban/
Every attack by the Meghan haters in the tabloids and BTL shows the wisdom of them emigrating.
KCIII would be wise to heal the divisions or it will be a very divided reign. A few uniforms and baubles is a small price to pay.
Charles and William can be polite to them but otherwise should keep them at arms length and just focus on the core new royal family, them, the Queen Consort, Kate and William's children plus Anne and Edward
Powerful speech on Ukraine by @EmmanuelMacron last night at UNGA. He lambasted the “cynicism” of 🇷🇺 fake referenda in occupied parts of Ukr. But the core of his speech was to denounce self-proclaimed “neutral” countries who are “complicit with the cause of a new imperialism.”
The war in Ukraine was a war to defend for the values of the United Nations – national sovereignty and territorial integrity, Macron said. If Russia succeded, there would be other invasions and other attempts to trample sovereignty in other parts of the world.
“Those countries who pretend to a kind of non-aligned status are making a mistake and they will have a historic responsibility,” Macron said. “The risk we face today is a new partition of the world.”
So this is rushing it.
Treasury refuses to publish UK economic forecast
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62970803
Redwood also appears to be unaware of the various misbehaviour by U.K. regulated banks which has given carte blanche to a variety of extremely unpleasant criminals seeking to launder their ill-gotten gains (HSBC, NatWest and others).
Possibly they have not done one. That might be another reason.
It also allows time for all the dignitaries who will be coming to line up their schedules. The invite list will probably be quite similar to the funeral.
As for the nuclear war threat, well no rational man would be serious about that. But the flaw in that line of reasoning is obvious.
https://www.flightradar24.com/RUMOR12/2d8bfd83
The more likely figure is that it both looks bloody awful AND it doesn't support the government intentions - anyone with a clue knows that reducing Corporation Tax is going to do nothing at all about productivity regardless of what Professor Minford believes....
Most companies operate on the basis of take money today because they may not be there tomorrow...
LDs aren't influenced that she used to be a LD or Remainer. If anything that will turn them off as she has turned her back on this stuff.
The reports are published every six months anyway, so it won't be long until one is eventually released and that ought to have the impact of Friday's measures included.
'TikTok has been spreading immoral and non Islamic content and videos in an Islamic country among the very vulnerable youths of Afghanistan, and we have to block it for the sake of our youths' future,'
Quite right too.
The fact Truss has failed to regain 2017 and 2019 redwall working class Tory voters who have gone back to Labour but has regained some upper middle class southern voters Boris lost to the LDs is also significant demographically. It suggests the Tory vote will be the poshest and richest it has been since Cameron in 2015. That would also reflect her policies of tax cuts for the rich.
Labour meanwhile look set to win average earners for the first time since Blair
I wonder if Merkel leaving the stage has given him the confidence to shape the narrative more. Not that he's ever notably lacked confidence.
ChrisO
@ChrisO_wiki
1/ There'll be lots of commentary this morning about the logistical difficulties of Putin's announcement of a partial mobilisation. But I thought I'd add a few points, based on my own personal observations, of what it means politically and for the troops already in Ukraine.
ChrisO
@ChrisO_wiki
·
1h
15/ So in short, I see this move not so much as being about creating a brand new army for Russia but as creating political cover for Putin and enabling him to rest and reorganise his current depleted army over the winter. /end
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1572508504937877506
What baubles and uniforms do they want in California?
This feels like papers writing endlessly tedious - and probably made up - stories, many of them spiteful about H&M. And not a few also spiteful about the RF. This is not helped by endless interviews about the past nor his mooted autobiography. A long period of silence from both families would be a very good thing. Private disagreements need to be resolved in private or moved on from.
I think - as a general rule - once you have decided to leave a phase of your life (job, marriage, country, whatever it is) you need to minimise the amount of looking back you do. Process it, deal with it, take whatever was good from it and learn from the bad stuff and then get on with your new life. It does no good to be endlessly harping on about the past.
Charles used to do it about his childhood and it was tiresome, unfair and made him look childish and petulant rather than thoughtful. H&M would do well to learn from that. They have the life they want in California with 2 lovely children, probably nicer than the performing bear circus which so much of Royal life is, as we've seen these last 10 days. I wish them luck and happiness. But enough with the rear view wailing.
Giving Harry back his officers uniform and medals and he and Meghan back their HRH without returning to do royal duties would be far more damaging to the royals, especially with their core supporters than keeping them at arms length still
If Parliament doesn't like it then they need to vote to compel the economic forecast to be published by the Treasury, and impeach any minister or official who fails to comply.
This would require sufficient Conservative MPs to act for the benefit of their constituents and Parliament, rather than their party (and the same for Labour MPs during any future Labour government) otherwise the power of Parliament to scrutinise the Executive will be further eroded.
- A core liberal vote
- The disillusioned former Tory Remain vote
- Labour-inclined tactical voters
- Green-inclined tactical voters
- A few anti-SNP tactical voters
- non-partisan voters who like the local MP
- None of the above vote / undecideds
I'd put its national polling ceiling around 15% and local election ceiling closer to 20%.
As I hinted in my Sunday piece, Meghan should bite her tongue, and Charles reconcile with his son. Otherwise it will dog his reign throughout. Best do it soon, so all sorted by the Coronation.
It also perhaps depends on what the interest rate will be, and how long it will take, plus perhaps what the energy market reforms do.
I will be very happy if the reforms to decouple renewable electricity prices from gas prices, also include an element of funding a much larger ECO4 programme (ECO having been the simplest and most effective element of our insulation / energy strategy), and incorporate recovery of borrowing - if that is how the Energy Support package is funded.
A differentially higher rate of STLD for poor quality housing by energy rating would also be good.
Personally, I am quite pleased that a lot of the gesture politics of the last government is being dropped, the withdrawal from the ECHR, the "privatisation" of C4 and the refusal to speak to the rail unions. If we have a more pragmatic government focused on things that actually matter rather than gestures that will be a good thing. I hope this includes a more constructive approach to relations with the EU too.
A step up from the usual NATO surveillance planes and drones hanging around the Ukraine borders, that have been a feature of this conflict, just to remind Putin who he’s up against.
The occasional airbourne USAF F-35 too, just in case something needs shooting down in a hurry. Can’t see that one up today though - but that doesn’t mean it’s not there!
Some people put far too much faith in the output models, without thinking through what assumptions are put into those models. If your assumptions are wrong, you model is a glorified version of that mistake.
Most of us have moved on fortunately
AIUI BR was actually moving towards delay attribution internally - you really need computerisation for it to work.
This is not an argument against renationalisaiton; it is an argument against getting rid of delay attribution.
https://twitter.com/sarahsackman/status/1572267082296840193
The Government was only formed two weeks ago yesterday, in fact many of the appointments were made two weeks ago today, and it was effectively shut down and put into a period of mourning two weeks ago tomorrow. That mourning period only ended yesterday and now the announcement is happening on Friday.
If the Government were to give the OBR time to draw up a forecast that would mean no announcement and no support for another month. Be honest, you wouldn't praise them for being quiet for another month, would you?
There are very few established facts about all these allegations. The few that are known do not tend to support the allegations of bad behaviour by the RF and some clearly contradict some of the things said.
If I were to review this as a professional investigator and list out all the allegations and statements and review the evidence, the facts would, I suspect, look somewhat different to the stories which people have in their heads, regardless of which "side" anyone is on.
But facts now seem irrelevant.
I will say that some of the press stories have been silly, ridiculous and spiteful. Ditto the gutters of social media. I can well see how upsetting they could be. Though really it is very easy indeed to avoid reading English tabloids and the loonier fringes of social media, even in the U.K. let alone thousands of miles away.
[Translated] Former rector of the Moscow Aviation Institute (MAI) Anatoly Gerashchenko died in an accident, reports The Moscow Post correspondent .
It is reported that the tragic accident occurred on the afternoon of Tuesday, September 21. Gerashchenko was at the Moscow Aviation Institute and descended the stairs. At one point, something went wrong, the scientist fell and flew several flights. He received injuries incompatible with life. Arriving ambulance officers ascertained the death of Gerashchenko.
https://www-moscow--post-su.translate.goog/news/society/byvshiy-rektor-mai-anatoliy-gerashchenko-pogib-pri-padenii-s-lestnicy-v-stenah-instituta-173111/?_x_tr_sch=http&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp
I love that euphemism.
I must have missed this. When? How?
I would actually put the true core LD vote below 8%.
as with the tories and the C of E you define the core as essentially the haters and place yourself in it. Anyone genuinely concerned for the family would be thinking there's nothing sadder than inter family rifts, and hoping they can be resolved.