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West Lancs looks like a LAB hold on small turnout – politicalbetting.com

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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,433
    edited September 2022
    Someone trying to attract top financial services talent from the EU and US, rather than driven by the politics of envy. Should raise a few billion in income tax.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,732
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    There must be an awful lot of 20-something men in Russia, right now, staring at their phones with horror

    But surely not surprise.

    I think some surprise Yes - IF this happens (we still don’t know for sure, tho the rumours are piling up)

    It’s a huge risk for Putin. He must be quite desperate
    Yes.

    It is a massive escalation. It means the risk of the war spiralling out of control (Belorus invading Ukraine, nuclear, etc.) has grown dramatically.

    But it also increases the chances of a collapse of the Putin regime.
    Nah, more risk of Ukraine invading Belarus.

    Belarusian have no love of their dictator, and may well be another place keen to escape the Russian yoke.
  • dixiedean said:

    Does the Russian army need hundreds of thousands of sullen, untrained conscripts?

    Define needs. Also define useful. The Sandhurst game of SeaLion I mentioned earlier may be instructive in this....
    They have vast numbers of soldiers on their various southern and eastern borders and on internal security duties (including Putin's bodyguards). A large number of recruits could be sent to those borders for 'training' on the job, whilst the current soldiers are rotated to the front.

    The internal security troops are an interesting one. They might perform quite well: but using them might be a risk as well: both by reducing the internal security, and the fact they might not want to fight...

    In 2018, 340,000 troops were in the internal security apparatus. It is rumoured that some have already been used in Ukraine. It'll be interesting to see how far he feels he can strip their numbers down.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Guard_of_Russia
    They are not very heavily armed. Where would they get the equipment to up-arm them to a real army?
    Yeah, that might well be an unfortunate problem for him.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 1,883


    Maybe his “out” is announce the referendums are taking place in 6 months. Ceasefire until after referendums. Announce general mobilisation to give 6 months to train up conscripts. Hope that everyone wants to avoid further large scale bloodshed so uses the 6 months to agree terms.

    He can then say to the Russian people “see, when they were threatened with the might of the Russian war machine they came to their senses and we got rid of the Nazis and can I have my yacht back?”.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    RH1992 said:

    Happy to see the pro-Truss members big-upping her definitely triumphant interview. She's brilliant, isn't she?

    ping said:

    @jimwaterson

    Peak TV ratings during Queen's funeral
    BBC1: 19.5m
    BBC2: 2m
    ITV: 5.3m
    Sky News: 934,000
    BBC News channel: 831,000

    Combined peak of around 28.5m viewers on main channels, final figure will be a bit higher. Excludes streaming.

    Massive audience but smaller than Euro 2020 final.

    How many people watched it on ITVBe? Or Babestation? Or the other channels which bizarrely showed it?
    170k watched it on Sky Sports Main Event strangely.

    I reckon if you add up all the little channels you get near 30 million watching on broadcast TV plus another couple of million streaming via iPlayer or equivalent on a smart TV like @Malmesbury stated.
    Can't find any UK stats but I would have thought streaming:broadcast was closer to 50/50 than the 15/1 you suggest. Everybody has got a TV set up for Netflix, surely? So why wouldn't you use the iplayer app?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,107
    Sandpit said:

    Someone trying to attract top financial services talent from the EU and US, rather than driven by the politics of envy. Should raise a few billion in income tax.
    Weren't the Bank of England against this idea from the start arguing that there are far better ways to regulate the behaviour of banks?
  • Sean_F said:

    So, this Russia thing:
    1. Referenda showing the people who haven't yet been tortured and murdered want to be Russians. So if Ukraine "invades" "Russia" thats WWIII that is
    2. A full mobilisation of the pride of the Rodina's menfolk. So be afraid NATO these factory workers from Smolensk are desperate to down tools and kill you.
    3. If you fuck with Russia we will destroy you.

    Except that none of this works. Annexed or not, the only thing Russian forces are good at in these territories when not torturing or raping is fleeing. So I assume the general conscription of every male child is to use them as reverse human shields.

    So when Ukraine attacks, they will be killing Russians (who in turn would be shot by their own sides if they tried to flee). Which is WAR. These conscripted "volunteers" won't be trained or armed, so what else can they be other than targets for "NATO" to kill?

    What we've learned over the past seven months is that Russia's army can only fight effectively against people who can't shoot back.

    This mobilisation is like being threatened by an angry gerbil.
    Like I said, mobilisation of what? Won't be troops. They have nothing to fight with. So are they just arrow fodder, there to be "accidentally" killed by NATO weapons fired by Ukraine forces as an excuse for a general war vs NATO? Which would be fought by which armies???

    All he has left are nukes. Which if he uses at best the west will largely use as the rationale to keep funding his military defeat, and at worst turns Russia to molten glass.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,280
    Is it too much to hope that Putin may be delayed due to 'issues' behind the scenes?
  • Sandpit said:

    Someone trying to attract top financial services talent from the EU and US, rather than driven by the politics of envy. Should raise a few billion in income tax.
    This policy would benefit me. I don’t want it
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,563

    Is it too much to hope that Putin may be delayed due to 'issues' behind the scenes?

    He's unwilling to walk past any windows?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,732
    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    Putin fashionably late as usual. He should have been on TV 20 minutes ago, they’re struggling to fill time and have just gone to adverts.

    All of that and poor timekeeping too.
    It's just rude.
    He does it deliberately, but recently tables were turned. Snubbed by a 'Stan...

    https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1570391974003486721?t=666eDZjyWHHgPuZ7vKbR5Q&s=19
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,147
    Labour should hold it, the key for Truss will be minimising the swing to Labour
  • boulayboulay Posts: 1,883

    Is it too much to hope that Putin may be delayed due to 'issues' behind the scenes?

    Maybe he is under medical supervision and comfortable.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 31,942

    rcs1000 said:


    As someone who has done business in the UK, France, the US and Switzerland, I can assure people that the two most regulatory heavy countries are the last two, while the UK has the fewest regulations.

    Indeed, it's really odd that people think the US is a low-regulation economy. It's extremely bureaucratic (although it does vary between states).
    Quite a few Americans in business, that I know, talk of the "The Land Of The Fee".

    You need a license to any kind of business. Usually multiple. When you tell them you can just open a barbers shop in the UK, the startled expressions - without a zoning permit, a permit from the licensing board for barbers.. is the UK an anarchy?

    There does seem to be a dynamic where American business, when it is unregulated, really takes a country mile. Leading to hard regulation. Which then.....
    US seems highly regulated and quite dysfunctional.

    But there is also an irrepressible entrepreneurial spirit that seems missing from the UK.

    I am quite fascinated by this paradox.
    They are related. A small example.

    A mad billionaire builds the largest rocket in history, in a swamp, in Texas. The glee with which he blows up prototypes. Or builds a giant constellation of satellites in LEO, to provide internet access.

    The existing launch providers, who are a government created monopoly try and pay their pet politicians to stop this anarchy. Except parts of the government love the product. In desperation they try - building new rockets and hiring a competent CEO.

    Meanwhile the existing ISPs take government money to extend their coverage in rural ares in the US. Where a patchwork of laws has made competing with the Thieves By Statute virtually impossible.

    When the government has the temerity to ask why they haven't actually added any connections for the money, the companies in question regard that as impertinent.

    This is America in microcosm....
    Elon Musk is Hank Scorpio. A lunatic, but a brilliant lunatic. SpaceX is a revolution in launcher technology, making NASA look like idiots. Starlink is a creative solution to the genuine lack of fast internet across chunks of the globe. Tesla is leading edge car production - am genuinely smitten with my Model Y.

    What I love is the think a long way outside the box insanities. "why don't we just land and reuse all the stages" was impossible until it became normal. "why not build a big fat rocket out of stainless steel" is bonkers, to say nothing of "lets catch it when landing with giant robot arms called "mechazilla". Then we have "This is not a Flamethrower". The "Emission Control" stupidity on a Tesla. He is truly madly deeply insane.
    Hank Scorpio was a better people manager. The bit where he did an honest and heartfelt exit interview while the ninjas literally abseiled into his volcano lair.... He gave Homer his full concentration.

    Everyone I know would work for Scorpio, if he actually existed.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,280

    Russian-installed officials in Zaporizhzhia say they intend to leave Ukraine and join Russia on behalf of the entire province.

    That includes the city of Zaporizhzhia itself, which had a pre-war population of 750,000 – and which is controlled Ukraine


    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1572274685181558785

    Are they going to declare independence in the slither of Kharkiv that they hold too?
  • Russian-installed officials in Zaporizhzhia say they intend to leave Ukraine and join Russia on behalf of the entire province.

    That includes the city of Zaporizhzhia itself, which had a pre-war population of 750,000 – and which is controlled Ukraine


    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1572274685181558785

    Fantastic that Russian officials intend to leave Ukraine and join Russia.

    They should pack their bags and take Russian military figures with them.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    boulay said:

    Is it too much to hope that Putin may be delayed due to 'issues' behind the scenes?

    Maybe he is under medical supervision and comfortable.
    OMG not Bolshoi Moskvoretskiy Bridge?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,955

    Is it too much to hope that Putin may be delayed due to 'issues' behind the scenes?

    I was wondering the same.

    @Sandpit - is he on yet?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 1,883
    IshmaelZ said:

    boulay said:

    Is it too much to hope that Putin may be delayed due to 'issues' behind the scenes?

    Maybe he is under medical supervision and comfortable.
    OMG not Bolshoi Moskvoretskiy Bridge?
    And wall to wall Nicholai Witchellov.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,147

    ping said:

    @jimwaterson

    Peak TV ratings during Queen's funeral
    BBC1: 19.5m
    BBC2: 2m
    ITV: 5.3m
    Sky News: 934,000
    BBC News channel: 831,000

    Combined peak of around 28.5m viewers on main channels, final figure will be a bit higher. Excludes streaming.

    Massive audience but smaller than Euro 2020 final.

    The estimates of 4 billion+ viewers worldwide (out of a maximum total of 5.4 billion on the planet with access to a TV) look a bit over the top, then.

    Not sure, the Euros 2020 final was a huge event here as it was England's first final since 1966.

    However it got little coverage in the US, India, Australia, Canada etc but those nations did cover the Queen's funeral extensively
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 787
    IshmaelZ said:

    RH1992 said:

    Happy to see the pro-Truss members big-upping her definitely triumphant interview. She's brilliant, isn't she?

    ping said:

    @jimwaterson

    Peak TV ratings during Queen's funeral
    BBC1: 19.5m
    BBC2: 2m
    ITV: 5.3m
    Sky News: 934,000
    BBC News channel: 831,000

    Combined peak of around 28.5m viewers on main channels, final figure will be a bit higher. Excludes streaming.

    Massive audience but smaller than Euro 2020 final.

    How many people watched it on ITVBe? Or Babestation? Or the other channels which bizarrely showed it?
    170k watched it on Sky Sports Main Event strangely.

    I reckon if you add up all the little channels you get near 30 million watching on broadcast TV plus another couple of million streaming via iPlayer or equivalent on a smart TV like @Malmesbury stated.
    Can't find any UK stats but I would have thought streaming:broadcast was closer to 50/50 than the 15/1 you suggest. Everybody has got a TV set up for Netflix, surely? So why wouldn't you use the iplayer app?
    I reckon most people still have a TV plugged into an aerial/dish which is faster than loading up iPlayer. iPlayer is about 90 seconds behind actual "live" so it depends if that matters. It definitely matters for big live events like football as I watched a Euros match on iPlayer (for UHD) and heard cheers down the street way before the coming England goal.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,460
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    A rumour from a pro Ukraine source


    “According to Putin, starting from the 21st, all males aged 18-65 will be banned from leaving the country. It appears that General Mobility is confirmed.#Ukraine #Kyiv #NAFO 大递方面消息,从21日开始,所有18-65岁的男丁将禁止出境。看来总动员实捶了”

    https://twitter.com/dsbxtw9991/status/1572259092382748674?s=46&t=tC224ynY4VELj_Ny89HWIw

    Here we go then. special military operation War 2: operate War harder.
    In WW2 they had female tank drivers. Half measures Vlad.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,433
    edited September 2022
    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Someone trying to attract top financial services talent from the EU and US, rather than driven by the politics of envy. Should raise a few billion in income tax.
    Weren't the Bank of England against this idea from the start arguing that there are far better ways to regulate the behaviour of banks?
    It was originally an EU regulation, imposed squarely as part of their strategy to try and squash the City. Like most EU regulation aimed at squashing the City, it had a pile of unintended consequences, none of which involved the City moving to Frankfurt or Paris.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,563
    IshmaelZ said:

    boulay said:

    Is it too much to hope that Putin may be delayed due to 'issues' behind the scenes?

    Maybe he is under medical supervision and comfortable.
    OMG not Bolshoi Moskvoretskiy Bridge?
    Don't be silly.

    Would be the Kerch Bridge.
  • moonshine said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Putin fashionably late as usual. He should have been on TV 20 minutes ago, they’re struggling to fill time and have just gone to adverts.

    Can we watch this magnum opus in the UK or will you fill us in?
    If you have a Russian satellite receiver maybe, all the European and American platforms have delisted Russian channels.
    I’ll do my best to offer a quick translation, if he eventually turns up.
    No doubt Denys Davydov will give a summary in his 10pm youtube update. Has quickly become my required bedtime viewing.
    Maybe some new posters may appear here to provide their analysis...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,433
    rcs1000 said:

    Is it too much to hope that Putin may be delayed due to 'issues' behind the scenes?

    I was wondering the same.

    @Sandpit - is he on yet?
    Not yet, still propoganda videos, talking heads stuck for anything to say, and adverts.
  • Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    Putin fashionably late as usual. He should have been on TV 20 minutes ago, they’re struggling to fill time and have just gone to adverts.

    All of that and poor timekeeping too.
    It's just rude.
    He does it deliberately, but recently tables were turned. Snubbed by a 'Stan...

    https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1570391974003486721?t=666eDZjyWHHgPuZ7vKbR5Q&s=19
    In fact, four of them snubbed him like that including China and India
  • RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Someone trying to attract top financial services talent from the EU and US, rather than driven by the politics of envy. Should raise a few billion in income tax.
    Weren't the Bank of England against this idea from the start arguing that there are far better ways to regulate the behaviour of banks?
    Apparently as they have endorsed Truss's proposals
  • Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Is it too much to hope that Putin may be delayed due to 'issues' behind the scenes?

    I was wondering the same.

    @Sandpit - is he on yet?
    Not yet, still propoganda videos, talking heads stuck for anything to say, and adverts.
    It's one thing snubbing a 'lesser' President but 40 mins + late for a live TV showing....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,484

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Is it too much to hope that Putin may be delayed due to 'issues' behind the scenes?

    I was wondering the same.

    @Sandpit - is he on yet?
    Not yet, still propoganda videos, talking heads stuck for anything to say, and adverts.
    It's one thing snubbing a 'lesser' President but 40 mins + late for a live TV showing....
    It’s quite odd
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,563
    Maybe he's waiting for the cricket to finish.
  • Dynamo said:
    Why - has he been arrested
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,433

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Is it too much to hope that Putin may be delayed due to 'issues' behind the scenes?

    I was wondering the same.

    @Sandpit - is he on yet?
    Not yet, still propoganda videos, talking heads stuck for anything to say, and adverts.
    It's one thing snubbing a 'lesser' President but 40 mins + late for a live TV showing....
    He’s now so late, that my personal Russian translator has given up and gone to prepare herself to turn in for the night, it’s now 10pm here and she has a 6am alarm call tomorrow!
  • RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Someone trying to attract top financial services talent from the EU and US, rather than driven by the politics of envy. Should raise a few billion in income tax.
    Weren't the Bank of England against this idea from the start arguing that there are far better ways to regulate the behaviour of banks?
    Apparently as they have endorsed Truss's proposals
    Thought we didn’t like experts anymore
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,107

    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Someone trying to attract top financial services talent from the EU and US, rather than driven by the politics of envy. Should raise a few billion in income tax.
    Weren't the Bank of England against this idea from the start arguing that there are far better ways to regulate the behaviour of banks?
    Apparently as they have endorsed Truss's proposals
    Thought we didn’t like experts anymore
    Only when they say the wrong thing.

    But seriously, even the BoE said it was a bad idea from the start. If the only weapon you have to prevent banks doing stupid things is limiting the size of the bonuses, something has gone very wrong.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,242
    Over the past 10 years or so there has been significant increases in the "profit" which is subject to corporation tax.

    This includes

    Reductions in capital allowance rates
    Reductions in interest deductibility
    Stopping deductions being claimed in two different jurisdictions (anti hybrid measures)
    Toughening up transfer pricing to increase profits taxable in UK
    Stopping other avoidance measures.

    These have significantly increased the mainstream corporation tax take.

    The OBR has a good report on this, effectively the effective rate of corporation tax has stayed broadly the same notwithstanding the reduction in the headline rate.
  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651

    Dynamo said:
    Why - has he been arrested
    Actually I'm not sure whether tonight's address will be shown live at that site.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,563
    Not many in the crowd. Tight security, high prices, the political situation or a mix of all three?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,914
    Dynamo said:

    Putin is to address the Russian nation this evening.
    Will he announce SCO monitoring of the referendums?

    Would the cunning old fox announce something like that at the exact time Bake-Off is starting? I rather doubt it.
  • rcs1000 said:


    As someone who has done business in the UK, France, the US and Switzerland, I can assure people that the two most regulatory heavy countries are the last two, while the UK has the fewest regulations.

    Indeed, it's really odd that people think the US is a low-regulation economy. It's extremely bureaucratic (although it does vary between states).
    Quite a few Americans in business, that I know, talk of the "The Land Of The Fee".

    You need a license to any kind of business. Usually multiple. When you tell them you can just open a barbers shop in the UK, the startled expressions - without a zoning permit, a permit from the licensing board for barbers.. is the UK an anarchy?

    There does seem to be a dynamic where American business, when it is unregulated, really takes a country mile. Leading to hard regulation. Which then.....
    US seems highly regulated and quite dysfunctional.

    But there is also an irrepressible entrepreneurial spirit that seems missing from the UK.

    I am quite fascinated by this paradox.
    They are related. A small example.

    A mad billionaire builds the largest rocket in history, in a swamp, in Texas. The glee with which he blows up prototypes. Or builds a giant constellation of satellites in LEO, to provide internet access.

    The existing launch providers, who are a government created monopoly try and pay their pet politicians to stop this anarchy. Except parts of the government love the product. In desperation they try - building new rockets and hiring a competent CEO.

    Meanwhile the existing ISPs take government money to extend their coverage in rural ares in the US. Where a patchwork of laws has made competing with the Thieves By Statute virtually impossible.

    When the government has the temerity to ask why they haven't actually added any connections for the money, the companies in question regard that as impertinent.

    This is America in microcosm....
    Elon Musk is Hank Scorpio. A lunatic, but a brilliant lunatic. SpaceX is a revolution in launcher technology, making NASA look like idiots. Starlink is a creative solution to the genuine lack of fast internet across chunks of the globe. Tesla is leading edge car production - am genuinely smitten with my Model Y.

    What I love is the think a long way outside the box insanities. "why don't we just land and reuse all the stages" was impossible until it became normal. "why not build a big fat rocket out of stainless steel" is bonkers, to say nothing of "lets catch it when landing with giant robot arms called "mechazilla". Then we have "This is not a Flamethrower". The "Emission Control" stupidity on a Tesla. He is truly madly deeply insane.
    " "why don't we just land and reuse all the stages" was impossible until it became normal."

    (sighs theatrically)

    Vertical landing was not seen as being impossible. The DCX-Clipper was testing vertical landing 15 years earlier. Sadly NASA did not go ahead with the DC-Y or DC-1. But it very much proved vertically landing a large rocket was possible.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McDonnell_Douglas_DC-X

    This is the problem with Musk: there's so much b/s about him that people actually believe.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,484
    kinabalu said:

    Dynamo said:

    Putin is to address the Russian nation this evening.
    Will he announce SCO monitoring of the referendums?

    Would the cunning old fox announce something like that at the exact time Bake-Off is starting? I rather doubt it.
    My niece just pointed out that Putin has waited until Her Majesty was buried, to escalate his war

    Didn’t want this to be overshadowed
  • Dynamo said:
    Adverts for KFC and Burger King.

    The evil, imperialist west...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,563
    Nice innings from Harry Brook to finish it off.

    If he ever wants to play Tests again I hope he doesn't have *that* high a backlift. Don't remember it being that high when I saw him at the start of the season so maybe he just uses it for T20.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649
    edited September 2022
    A few aggregation sites of unknown provenance or accuracy are all posting 'ukraine officials including the president have been placed on high alert' in the last 15 minutes
    I have no idea what that means or if it is accurate but posting for info
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,433
    .
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dynamo said:

    Putin is to address the Russian nation this evening.
    Will he announce SCO monitoring of the referendums?

    Would the cunning old fox announce something like that at the exact time Bake-Off is starting? I rather doubt it.
    My niece just pointed out that Putin has waited until Her Majesty was buried, to escalate his war

    Didn’t want this to be overshadowed
    Same as he waited for the Winter Olympics, for the original invasion. He likes being the international top story.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 11,219
    Evening all :)

    As far as West Lancashire is concerned, hard to argue with OGH's assessment. Wakefield saw a swing of 12.7% from Conservative to Labour and that seems a reasonable starting point unless there's a strong local Independent candidate on the ballot.

    The seat is basically West Lancashire Council minus the Conservative voting Wards in the north which are in South Ribble.

    I don't imagine the Greens or LDs will do very much.- there is a local group called Our West Lancashire which has seven seats on the West Lancashire Council. They've never stood in a Parliamentary election and it'll be interesting if they are tempted to put up. I think they could come third.
  • Nigelb said:

    Erdoğan to Putin: Return Crimea to ‘rightful owners’
    Turkish leader joins parade of leaders dealing blows to Putin.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/return-crimea-turkey-president-erdogan-putin-russia/

    I guess he doesn’t mean the Giray Khan - who I believes lives in Istanbul…
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,563

    Dynamo said:
    Adverts for KFC and Burger King.

    The evil, imperialist west...
    If it's Burger King, has he had his chips?
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,256
    Mr Dynamo,

    He seems to be talking in Russian, I know he's foreign chap, but you'd think he'd make an effort.
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Is it too much to hope that Putin may be delayed due to 'issues' behind the scenes?

    I was wondering the same.

    @Sandpit - is he on yet?
    Not yet, still propoganda videos, talking heads stuck for anything to say, and adverts.
    It's one thing snubbing a 'lesser' President but 40 mins + late for a live TV showing....
    He’s now so late, that my personal Russian translator has given up and gone to prepare herself to turn in for the night, it’s now 10pm here and she has a 6am alarm call tomorrow!
    He's surely taking the p1ss now or is Shiogu holding onto that window ledge for a lot longer than people expected?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,563

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Is it too much to hope that Putin may be delayed due to 'issues' behind the scenes?

    I was wondering the same.

    @Sandpit - is he on yet?
    Not yet, still propoganda videos, talking heads stuck for anything to say, and adverts.
    It's one thing snubbing a 'lesser' President but 40 mins + late for a live TV showing....
    He’s now so late, that my personal Russian translator has given up and gone to prepare herself to turn in for the night, it’s now 10pm here and she has a 6am alarm call tomorrow!
    He's surely taking the p1ss now or is Shiogu holding onto that window ledge for a lot longer than people expected?
    doesn't exactly promote the narrative that he is in control of events, does it?
  • RT Russian propaganda outlet removes its post stating that Putin will Address the Nation at 20:00 pm

    https://twitter.com/AnonOpsSE/status/1572282610633801730
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,433
    Russki news now laughing at “the old American”, while they wait for their own near-septuagenarian to take the stage.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,914

    moonshine said:

    Xi Jinping’s security guarantee to Kazakhstan represents a fairly unprecedented public overreach into the “Russian sphere”. Modi and Erdogan have also issued withering statements in the last week on Russia’s war.

    People here keep wetting the bed saying Putin has no out except nuclear weapons. Nonsense.

    All he has to do is say, “look I tried mobilisation. But we can’t win territory for our cousins in Donbas if they aren’t prepared to fight themselves. And they are all lazy cowards and I won’t risk Russian lives on those blood traitors any longer.”

    That buys him time for a fudge on crimea. And in truth this mobilisation is a sham. If they couldn’t feed the initial invading hoard or give them more than a magazine of ammo and a tank of fuel, how do you think it’s going to go now that Russian logistics capacity has been so degraded and there are more mouths to feed, guns to fill with bullets and bodies to protect from heavy arms?

    This is either the final roll of the dice before Putin meets his end. Or it’s a Hokey Cokey type strategy to put his left leg in so he can then take his right left out and we’ll see the continued orderly retreat.

    Would agree with much of that.

    There is also another trick he could play.

    Hold the Referenda and then say that all the three regions have decided to stay with Ukraine and no to being incorporated with Russia. He can withdraw saying he's accepted the vote.

    Now, I know that's unlikely but...
    That would be a most pleasant surprise.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As far as West Lancashire is concerned, hard to argue with OGH's assessment. Wakefield saw a swing of 12.7% from Conservative to Labour and that seems a reasonable starting point unless there's a strong local Independent candidate on the ballot.

    The seat is basically West Lancashire Council minus the Conservative voting Wards in the north which are in South Ribble.

    I don't imagine the Greens or LDs will do very much.- there is a local group called Our West Lancashire which has seven seats on the West Lancashire Council. They've never stood in a Parliamentary election and it'll be interesting if they are tempted to put up. I think they could come third.

    It will be a straight turnout fight between the big 2 as to size of victory, been a remarkably stable seat since 92
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 2,822
    edited September 2022

    RT Russian propaganda outlet removes its post stating that Putin will Address the Nation at 20:00 pm

    https://twitter.com/AnonOpsSE/status/1572282610633801730

    Operation Swan Lake?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,563
    Sandpit said:

    Russki news now laughing at “the old American”, while they wait for their own near-septuagenarian to take the stage.

    He is a Marxist.

    So he is about 39.

    For as Marx said, a man is as old as the woman he feels.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,484
    Properly weird now
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,955

    RT Russian propaganda outlet removes its post stating that Putin will Address the Nation at 20:00 pm

    https://twitter.com/AnonOpsSE/status/1572282610633801730

    Wow.

    That really does suggest something is happening behind the scenes.
  • Re: Holly and Phillip, perhaps they could trade places with Kelly and Ryan, as in "Live with Kelly and Ryan"

    Classic clapped-out American morning TV show which is pretty popular (if you believe the ratings) for old-school broadcast television.

    Would actual enliven both programs as both sets of airheads would get to share & air their amazement, befuddlement, discombobulation, etc. over fun differences English versus Amerakn.

    For at least a fortnight. "What the heck is that?" asks perky Kelly with a girlish giggle. Or is it Ryan?
  • RT Russian propaganda outlet removes its post stating that Putin will Address the Nation at 20:00 pm

    https://twitter.com/AnonOpsSE/status/1572282610633801730

    It brings back memories of Theresa May's late night announcements about the Brexit deal.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,408
    I've got here open, Alternative History.com open and I'm wondering whether Paradox forums (Hearts of Iron you see) Off Topic forum will say anything else different about Putin......
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,484
    Go on, ‘eave ‘im out the window
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,563

    RT Russian propaganda outlet removes its post stating that Putin will Address the Nation at 20:00 pm

    https://twitter.com/AnonOpsSE/status/1572282610633801730

    Operation Swan Lake?
    He's announced a ballot not a ballet.

    Although he's taking a bally long time about this.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,145
    edited September 2022
    FPT: (Now I'm back home I'll address a couple of these)
    Dynamo said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Maffew said:

    One thing that doesn't seem to have been discussed about Russia potentially using nuclear weapons against Ukraine is the effect on proliferation. If a country uses a nuclear weapon in a war of aggression and the response isn't enough to give non-nuclear nations confidence it won't happen again, I suspect you'd see a massive uptick in nuclear programs.

    Poland would be a key contender - clearly they have the capability to obtain nuclear weapons (big enough economy, rich(ish) and have domestic nuclear power. They also feel threatened by Russia. If you're confident only conventional weapons will be used to attack you, then you can easily rely on NATO (or other major power guarantors). If it goes nuclear, your conventional military is suddenly not so much of a deterrent and your backers are less likely to want to get into a nuclear confrontation. So having your own weapons suddenly becomes much more important.

    Who else might go nuclear? Turkey? Taiwan? Japan? South Korea?

    I'd have thought the Baltic states probably lack the capability.

    And this is why China is desperate for Russia not to use nuclear weapons: because it inevitably leads to nuclear armed Japan, Korea and Taiwan.

    All of those countries have domestic nuclear power. All have the technical capacity.

    The pressure on Russia from China will be immense, including (one would surmise) the threat of sanctions every bit as severe as those from the West.
    Am I the only one who's looking at all this and thinking: the intent of all this is to try to get a peace established on the current front lines?
    Russia can then claim victory at home.
    Dodgy referendums to wave as a figleaf, nuclear sabre-rattling (yet again) as a threat, telling their allies that they are eager for peace.

    Then they offer peace on the current front lines and demand of us "Why don't you want peace?" if we don't pressure Ukraine to accept it.

    Before there's peace there's got to be an armistice. What lines would you have an armistice on if not (give or take a few small areas being exchanged) the current ones?
    The Armistice should be along the borders that Russia agreed to respect in the Budapest Memorandum. With, as you say, perhaps a few adjustments.

    Otherwise the rule of international law is in some way gone for a burton. And Putin is incentivised to repeat the performance.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,491

    RT Russian propaganda outlet removes its post stating that Putin will Address the Nation at 20:00 pm

    https://twitter.com/AnonOpsSE/status/1572282610633801730

    It brings back memories of Theresa May's late night announcements about the Brexit deal.
    He has been pulling the old 'nothing has changed' line lately.

    He may be struggling with how to stick to that whilst also explaining why they need to make some massive changes.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,433
    Rumours that he didn’t mean 20:00, he meant 21:00. About to find out…
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,563
    Sandpit said:

    Rumours that he didn’t mean 20:00, he meant 21:00. About to find out…

    So it's RT's social media team that will need to avoid windows for the foreseeable?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 31,942
    edited September 2022

    rcs1000 said:


    As someone who has done business in the UK, France, the US and Switzerland, I can assure people that the two most regulatory heavy countries are the last two, while the UK has the fewest regulations.

    Indeed, it's really odd that people think the US is a low-regulation economy. It's extremely bureaucratic (although it does vary between states).
    Quite a few Americans in business, that I know, talk of the "The Land Of The Fee".

    You need a license to any kind of business. Usually multiple. When you tell them you can just open a barbers shop in the UK, the startled expressions - without a zoning permit, a permit from the licensing board for barbers.. is the UK an anarchy?

    There does seem to be a dynamic where American business, when it is unregulated, really takes a country mile. Leading to hard regulation. Which then.....
    US seems highly regulated and quite dysfunctional.

    But there is also an irrepressible entrepreneurial spirit that seems missing from the UK.

    I am quite fascinated by this paradox.
    They are related. A small example.

    A mad billionaire builds the largest rocket in history, in a swamp, in Texas. The glee with which he blows up prototypes. Or builds a giant constellation of satellites in LEO, to provide internet access.

    The existing launch providers, who are a government created monopoly try and pay their pet politicians to stop this anarchy. Except parts of the government love the product. In desperation they try - building new rockets and hiring a competent CEO.

    Meanwhile the existing ISPs take government money to extend their coverage in rural ares in the US. Where a patchwork of laws has made competing with the Thieves By Statute virtually impossible.

    When the government has the temerity to ask why they haven't actually added any connections for the money, the companies in question regard that as impertinent.

    This is America in microcosm....
    Elon Musk is Hank Scorpio. A lunatic, but a brilliant lunatic. SpaceX is a revolution in launcher technology, making NASA look like idiots. Starlink is a creative solution to the genuine lack of fast internet across chunks of the globe. Tesla is leading edge car production - am genuinely smitten with my Model Y.

    What I love is the think a long way outside the box insanities. "why don't we just land and reuse all the stages" was impossible until it became normal. "why not build a big fat rocket out of stainless steel" is bonkers, to say nothing of "lets catch it when landing with giant robot arms called "mechazilla". Then we have "This is not a Flamethrower". The "Emission Control" stupidity on a Tesla. He is truly madly deeply insane.
    " "why don't we just land and reuse all the stages" was impossible until it became normal."

    (sighs theatrically)

    Vertical landing was not seen as being impossible. The DCX-Clipper was testing vertical landing 15 years earlier. Sadly NASA did not go ahead with the DC-Y or DC-1. But it very much proved vertically landing a large rocket was possible.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McDonnell_Douglas_DC-X

    This is the problem with Musk: there's so much b/s about him that people actually believe.
    The way that the DC-X program was carefully killed off is a master class in government bullshit.

    The original plan was the DC-Y - build a somewhat bigger but otherwise very similar vehicle to the DC-X. This would demonstrate flight weight etc and, might, just, maybe, reach orbit. With no payload. This would, however, virtually guarantee that the follow on Delta Clipper - the full sized, operational vehicle would work.

    This represented problems for various special interests. One part of NASA hated the fact that DC program didn't have wings. Another hated that it wasn't the Shuttle (shuttle operations, mainly). The exiting launch providers hated the idea that they would be put out of business.

    So NASA redesigned the program. Instead of the "boring" DC-Y, the new X-33 project would be really exciting. Including a dozen different untried technologies. If one of them failed, the whole program would fail. It would take off vertically, but land like a plane. Which was stupid, but NASA liked this. Lockheed got the job, because they claimed to have done all kinds of black project work in the area.

    A chunk of the technology failed, the project was never finished. Lockheed spent all the money, then went back to launching government satellites on the rockets made by their rocketry division. Which cost more, but made more profit for Lockheed. NASA went back to flying the shuttle, happy that they'd proved that building a better system was impossible.

    No progress. This made everyone very happy.

    EDIT: The F9 first stage is the size of a fair sized building. The DC-X was (deliberately) quite small. The other big difference was/is the hover slam.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,408
    Sandpit said:

    Rumours that he didn’t mean 20:00, he meant 21:00. About to find out…

    Alt History.com says the same. 9pm local time, so now 7pm here. Wonder if he'll be 'late' for that one.
    Where's that ice pick?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,484
    I have a mental image of about seven old men literally fighting in the Kremlin, knocking over vases, collapsing into samovars
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,433
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Rumours that he didn’t mean 20:00, he meant 21:00. About to find out…

    So it's RT's social media team that will need to avoid windows for the foreseeable?
    Social media guys usually prefer Macs. ;)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,914
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dynamo said:

    Putin is to address the Russian nation this evening.
    Will he announce SCO monitoring of the referendums?

    Would the cunning old fox announce something like that at the exact time Bake-Off is starting? I rather doubt it.
    My niece just pointed out that Putin has waited until Her Majesty was buried, to escalate his war

    Didn’t want this to be overshadowed
    That thought struck me too.

    But I was only joking about Bake-Off - it's not on till later and Putin clearly knows this, hence his rush to announce now.
  • Have turned it off now. But the 5 minutes of adverts were interesting.

    I saw adverts for fast food. For their lottery. For some talent-style gameshow. For what appeared to be a direct remake of Game of Thrones.

    Whatever is happening in Russia, the Russian people are not our enemy.
  • Sandpit said:

    Rumours that he didn’t mean 20:00, he meant 21:00. About to find out…

    It all seems to be a bit Four Seasons Total Landscaping.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,171
    Sandpit said:

    Rumours that he didn’t mean 20:00, he meant 21:00. About to find out…

    Snap change of the clocks, the bastard.
  • Leon said:

    I have a mental image of about seven old men literally fighting in the Kremlin, knocking over vases, collapsing into samovars

    No fighting in the War Room!
  • I've got here open, Alternative History.com open and I'm wondering whether Paradox forums (Hearts of Iron you see) Off Topic forum will say anything else different about Putin......

    LOL if Paradox gets the scoop first.

    I'm more of a Crusader Kings/Europa Universalis fan but I could understand HoI fans being interested in the madness what's going on in Russia today.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649
    edited September 2022
    Leon said:

    I have a mental image of about seven old men literally fighting in the Kremlin, knocking over vases, collapsing into samovars

    The ghost of Gorbachev with a 1990 reverse revolution
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,145
    edited September 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    RT Russian propaganda outlet removes its post stating that Putin will Address the Nation at 20:00 pm

    https://twitter.com/AnonOpsSE/status/1572282610633801730

    Wow.

    That really does suggest something is happening behind the scenes.
    Didn't we have an assassination attempt?

    Or was that somebody else smoking inappropriately?

    Perhaps we need to describe it as a "Goodwill Gesture" from person or persons unknown.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,250
    OT - I didn't know the subject of the Serial Podcast Adnan Syed had his murder conviction overturned...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,433
    This is like waiting for Yeltzin to get off the plane…
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,563
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Rumours that he didn’t mean 20:00, he meant 21:00. About to find out…

    So it's RT's social media team that will need to avoid windows for the foreseeable?
    Social media guys usually prefer Macs. ;)
    We're talking about a lack of performas.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,408

    I've got here open, Alternative History.com open and I'm wondering whether Paradox forums (Hearts of Iron you see) Off Topic forum will say anything else different about Putin......

    LOL if Paradox gets the scoop first.

    I'm more of a Crusader Kings/Europa Universalis fan but I could understand HoI fans being interested in the madness what's going on in Russia today.
    Whisper it quietly, but I've taken a real shine to Victoria 2 in the last few years.
    Nearly as good as Hearts of Iron 2...........
    (Which I'm still playing by the way, just like it says on my sig):
    https://forum.paradoxplaza.com/forum/members/thevaliant.19341/
  • stodgestodge Posts: 11,219
    The fact remains for all their "strong words", the likes of Xi, Modi and others are happy to run their economies on cut price Russian oil and gas and we now see Orban continuing to drag behind (we may criticise Scholz and enjoy doing so but it's Orban who has been the biggest Putin cheerleader in Europe).

    Is Erdogan on to something, on something or kite flying? It would be a huge feather in his cap were he somehow to broker a cease fire. The problem is status quo ante bellum may suit Moscow but it won't suit Kyiv - at the very least I imagine the full and unconditional withdrawal of all Russian troops from Ukrainian soil and the recognition of Ukrainian sovereignty over the Donbas would be non-negotiable.

    Crimea is more of a problem for all some think the Ukrainians can just march in, take over and everything will be fine. This is an issue which I think will require diplomacy and, as I've argued before, it might be worth asking the Crimeans what they want - I suspect they aren't enamoured by being ruled from either Moscow or Kyiv.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,563
    edited September 2022
    Sandpit said:

    This is like waiting for Yeltzin to get off the plane…

    The president will soon be gin.

    Shame about the vodka he'd imbibed first.
  • I've got here open, Alternative History.com open and I'm wondering whether Paradox forums (Hearts of Iron you see) Off Topic forum will say anything else different about Putin......

    LOL if Paradox gets the scoop first.

    I'm more of a Crusader Kings/Europa Universalis fan but I could understand HoI fans being interested in the madness what's going on in Russia today.
    Whisper it quietly, but I've taken a real shine to Victoria 2 in the last few years.
    Nearly as good as Hearts of Iron 2...........
    (Which I'm still playing by the way, just like it says on my sig):
    https://forum.paradoxplaza.com/forum/members/thevaliant.19341/
    Ooh forgot that, I loved the original Victoria and Vicky 2 but haven't played either in many years now. Looking forward to Vic 3.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 31,942

    rcs1000 said:


    As someone who has done business in the UK, France, the US and Switzerland, I can assure people that the two most regulatory heavy countries are the last two, while the UK has the fewest regulations.

    Indeed, it's really odd that people think the US is a low-regulation economy. It's extremely bureaucratic (although it does vary between states).
    Quite a few Americans in business, that I know, talk of the "The Land Of The Fee".

    You need a license to any kind of business. Usually multiple. When you tell them you can just open a barbers shop in the UK, the startled expressions - without a zoning permit, a permit from the licensing board for barbers.. is the UK an anarchy?

    There does seem to be a dynamic where American business, when it is unregulated, really takes a country mile. Leading to hard regulation. Which then.....
    US seems highly regulated and quite dysfunctional.

    But there is also an irrepressible entrepreneurial spirit that seems missing from the UK.

    I am quite fascinated by this paradox.
    They are related. A small example.

    A mad billionaire builds the largest rocket in history, in a swamp, in Texas. The glee with which he blows up prototypes. Or builds a giant constellation of satellites in LEO, to provide internet access.

    The existing launch providers, who are a government created monopoly try and pay their pet politicians to stop this anarchy. Except parts of the government love the product. In desperation they try - building new rockets and hiring a competent CEO.

    Meanwhile the existing ISPs take government money to extend their coverage in rural ares in the US. Where a patchwork of laws has made competing with the Thieves By Statute virtually impossible.

    When the government has the temerity to ask why they haven't actually added any connections for the money, the companies in question regard that as impertinent.

    This is America in microcosm....
    Elon Musk is Hank Scorpio. A lunatic, but a brilliant lunatic. SpaceX is a revolution in launcher technology, making NASA look like idiots. Starlink is a creative solution to the genuine lack of fast internet across chunks of the globe. Tesla is leading edge car production - am genuinely smitten with my Model Y.

    What I love is the think a long way outside the box insanities. "why don't we just land and reuse all the stages" was impossible until it became normal. "why not build a big fat rocket out of stainless steel" is bonkers, to say nothing of "lets catch it when landing with giant robot arms called "mechazilla". Then we have "This is not a Flamethrower". The "Emission Control" stupidity on a Tesla. He is truly madly deeply insane.
    " "why don't we just land and reuse all the stages" was impossible until it became normal."

    (sighs theatrically)

    Vertical landing was not seen as being impossible. The DCX-Clipper was testing vertical landing 15 years earlier. Sadly NASA did not go ahead with the DC-Y or DC-1. But it very much proved vertically landing a large rocket was possible.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McDonnell_Douglas_DC-X

    This is the problem with Musk: there's so much b/s about him that people actually believe.
    Despite the technology being un-patented, the existing launch companies/organisations seem to have adopted the policy of sticking their fingers in their ears and shouting LA LA LA.

    It's beyond the digital camera and Kodak thing now. It's way, way more ridiculous.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,460

    Dynamo said:
    Adverts for KFC and Burger King.

    The evil, imperialist west...
    I think Colonel Sanders could do better than his current officers.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 3,041
    IshmaelZ said:

    RH1992 said:

    Happy to see the pro-Truss members big-upping her definitely triumphant interview. She's brilliant, isn't she?

    ping said:

    @jimwaterson

    Peak TV ratings during Queen's funeral
    BBC1: 19.5m
    BBC2: 2m
    ITV: 5.3m
    Sky News: 934,000
    BBC News channel: 831,000

    Combined peak of around 28.5m viewers on main channels, final figure will be a bit higher. Excludes streaming.

    Massive audience but smaller than Euro 2020 final.

    How many people watched it on ITVBe? Or Babestation? Or the other channels which bizarrely showed it?
    170k watched it on Sky Sports Main Event strangely.

    I reckon if you add up all the little channels you get near 30 million watching on broadcast TV plus another couple of million streaming via iPlayer or equivalent on a smart TV like @Malmesbury stated.
    Can't find any UK stats but I would have thought streaming:broadcast was closer to 50/50 than the 15/1 you suggest. Everybody has got a TV set up for Netflix, surely? So why wouldn't you use the iplayer app?
    Because broadcast TV is live, not delayed by at least a minute?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,484
    “In the Arab world when tv uses filler scenes like this or plays patriotic songs, it usually means shit is about to hit the fan..”

    https://twitter.com/weddady/status/1572284546820841473?s=46&t=G9wH5YDmQtm7VtiJjnUeww
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,563

    Dynamo said:
    Adverts for KFC and Burger King.

    The evil, imperialist west...
    I think Colonel Sanders could do better than his current officers.
    Nah, he would chicken out.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649
    Leon said:

    “In the Arab world when tv uses filler scenes like this or plays patriotic songs, it usually means shit is about to hit the fan..”

    https://twitter.com/weddady/status/1572284546820841473?s=46&t=G9wH5YDmQtm7VtiJjnUeww

    Cue a grinning general
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,280
    Don't forget that Putin is a sadist and enjoys keeping people waiting.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Have turned it off now. But the 5 minutes of adverts were interesting.

    I saw adverts for fast food. For their lottery. For some talent-style gameshow. For what appeared to be a direct remake of Game of Thrones.

    Whatever is happening in Russia, the Russian people are not our enemy.

    There was me thinking I hate the fuckers, the only thing which could make me loathe them more was learning they had talent-style gameshows and GoT knock offs.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,563

    Don't forget that Putin is a sadist and enjoys keeping people waiting.

    Did Kabaeva say that?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 31,942

    Dynamo said:
    Adverts for KFC and Burger King.

    The evil, imperialist west...
    I think Colonel Sanders could do better than his current officers.
    That line from PJ OP'Rourke about travelling through China in the early days of their capitalist thing.... "Everywhere I looked, the same bland visage stared down at me from billboards. Some say he was a military genius. Some say he killed millions. Yes, it was Col. Sanders."
This discussion has been closed.