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West Lancs looks like a LAB hold on small turnout – politicalbetting.com
West Lancs looks like a LAB hold on small turnout – politicalbetting.com
It looks as though the next Westminster by-election will be in the West Lancs seat which was held by Rosie Cooper for the Labour party with a 16% majority at the last election.
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Basically, Truss is choosing to cosplay Thatcher JUST before she fell. https://twitter.com/bunker_pod/status/1572135976092061696
Labour still leading the Conservatives by ten points in latest results from Deltapoll.
Con 32% (-)
Lab 42% (-2)
Lib Dem 10% (+1)
Other 16% (-1)
Fieldwork: 16 - 20 September 2022
Sample: 2,084 GB adults
(Changes from 9 - 12 September 2022) https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1572246716144762880/photo/1
Trickle down economics is cutting taxes only on the rich, eg cutting only the top rate of tax, because you believe that will grow the economy.
Truss is proposing cutting taxes on everyone, via NI and Corporation Tax. That's simply tax cutting, that's not trickle down economics. Oh and its a cut back to the rates that existed *checks notes* five months ago, reversing a rise opposed by *checks notes* Keir Starmer, you, the Lib Dems and the Labour Party.
Considering you used to support the Conservative Party, and considering that you were opposed to the NI rise when it was announced, and considering you were opposed to the corporation tax rise when it was announced, I have to wonder what all this bullshit about trickle down economics is about now?
No pressure on Liz. Keir will want to see a big swing
LD not winning here.
Overall a not very exciting or interesting by election.
Don't really know it well, but a couple of thoughts on why it isn't really "red wall", which was suggested on previous topic.
1. Looking at the ward map, Skelmersdale seems almost as big a part of this seat as Wakefield was in, er, Wakefield.
2. Liverpool affinity factor - probably stronger here in areas that were kept out of Merseyside than in Southport which was lumped in.
3. It's a, somewhat improbable, university seat (Edge Hill). (cue PB tutting no doubt).
She has so far scored the unique achievement of making Sir Keir Royale look both charismatic and sensible in comparison. An odd choice by the Tories.
I'm sorry but I wouldn't call anyone earning £30,000 a low paid worker (they aren't well paid but it's not less than the median full time salary.
Will tell us very little/nothing.
Next.
Fiddling with starting rates of the tax, which are subsequently to be frozen in a high inflation environment, does not revert the rise in a marginal rate of tax.
No doubt to announce the referendum results in advance.
It is expected that Russian president Vladimir Putin makes a special statement on Ukraine today at 20-00 msk, after that a statement from minister of defence Sergey Shoygu is expected</i<
https://twitter.com/ElenaChernenko/status/1572238820493627399
Turkish leader joins parade of leaders dealing blows to Putin.
https://www.politico.eu/article/return-crimea-turkey-president-erdogan-putin-russia/
Post July 6th it's £56.97 for NI and £86 for income tax
The vast majority of what are left, are Vietnam-era T-62 relics that have been in storage for half a century, firing North Korean ammo, and will be close to a waste of good NLAWs as far as the defenders are concerned.
How does a ‘mobilisation’ help the situation, that Russia is unable to train and supply the troops it has already, let alone tens of thousands more, that are surely destined for the meat-grinder?
I hope their wives and mothers know how pointless these deaths will be, and just how expendable Putin considers their husbands and sons, in persuit of his dreams of a 21st century Soviet Empire.
The marginal tax rate is higher, even people working Part Time on National Minimum Wage today will be reaching the new NI tax threshold still and facing a higher marginal rate of tax if they work any extra time than they would have twelve months ago. They're not earning anything like £30k.
I absolutely would count part timers on NMW to be "low earners".
Maybe he was bugged by the seating arrangements after all ?
https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1572218921347866624
I am sick and tired of trickle-down economics. It has never worked.
We're building an economy from the bottom up and middle out.
BBC: "Prime Minister Liz Truss has said she was prepared to take "difficult decisions" such as removing a cap on bankers' bonuses..."
She doesn't seem to have found it too difficult as far as I can see.
9 x pollsters published in month prior to Truss:
Last poll before average: C 31, L 41.7
5 x those pollsters have published since Truss:
Last poll before avg of those 5: C 29.4, L 42.4
First poll after avg of those 5: 30.6, L 42.4
Post Truss swing +0.6% with up to 4 pollsters still to report.
Third place was the woman who introduced a bill on gender identity that had been written by Stonewall, and she then denied in the campaign that it did what it said it did.
Fourth place was a future star, but still very wet behind the ears having only been an MP for five years and aged 42.
Is it any surprise that Mrs Truss was the winner?
Truss is proposing to boost economic growth by borrowing (at a time of significantly increased government borrowing costs) by borrowing more to fund tax cuts.
That's a very inefficient way of boosting growth.
So reversing the marginal rate increase is still the right thing to do and leaves even low earners better off, nobody is proposing to reverse the threshold changes as far as I know.
If someone working part time on National Minimum Wage works just four days a week is offered a fifth day's work, they will take home less post-tax pay from that fifth day's work now than they would have under the tax rates of a year ago. That is not OK in my eyes, you seem to be saying that's justified?
I think you're rather missing the point. This isn't about moral authority (of which Erdogan possesses very little indeed) but about Putin's international isolation.
PM: “Yes, Yes I am.” https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1572234554458480643
Which is why Sunak's approach of higher corporation tax but a lot of allowances for capital investment was a way better approach.
We aren't going to get richer from lower taxes, we will get richer from productivity improvements.
The enemy has lost an average of 10 tanks a day since the war started, and before the war they had a theoretical manufacturing capacity of about 10 tanks a month. The new T-90M was about one every couple of months, and using a pile of Western electronics that are no longer available.
Only Russia could possibly prioritise export orders, over equipment for their own war!
The comms management is terrible. One thing the mendacious old bounder Boris was good at was doing one lot of very Tory things while pretending to the electorate that he was doing something else entirely. Truss is doing a few things that have some elements that are very Tory and others less so, but somehow managing to make them look even more Tory than they actually are.
To me, Rishi, for all his where does the green wire go-ness, seems the more human.
https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/bridges-to-the-future/id1385648485
That's one of the reasons it's an extremely inefficient means of encouraging growth.
How exactly does anyone propose the British government taxes Qatargas and Saudi Aramco, who are the companies doing well out of the crisis?
The company that bills you for domestic energy is barely breaking even, in fact many of them have gone bust in the last two years.
https://twitter.com/travellingtabby/status/1572245462157242374
I think the relationship is likely to grow frostier still if the nuclear talk continues.
If someone had fuelled up his car for him.
The “growth plan” is going to be fascinating.
I suspect it will fall apart quite quickly.
The mad rat Putin is doing it. Declaration of war and full mobilisation
I note you called her 'Truss' and the former Chancellor 'Rishi'.
candidates. Tom T would have been a strong choice.
Hence the importance of the China relationship.
Everyone at the minute is making extremely negative forecasts of doom and gloom, but there's a very real possibility that by this time next year the war in Ukraine should be over, commodity prices will have fallen, the economy should be growing and the roaring twenties that Rishi's tax rises and Putin's war looked to snuff out could be back on.
And if so, Truss will deserve some credit for sticking to her guns. And for her role in helping Ukraine win the war.
Labour 42% (–)
Conservative 34% (+4)
Liberal Democrat 10% (-4)
Green 5% (-1)
Scottish National Party 4% (-1)
Reform UK 3% (+1)
Other 1% (-1)
Changes +/- 7 September.
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…
Hence, why I think this mobilisation is not meant for the Ukraine (if it happens). It is meant to shore up Russia in the Caucasus and the East. These are far more important to Russia strategically and, more to the point, you don't need to have fully trained troops there, just enough to enforce the peace and persuade the warring parties to desist (although, in the case of Azerbaijan, there is a question).
A WT on the power generators would apply to renewables and nuclear which is where a lot of the big windfall is landing.
Actually you don’t have to be brilliant at all to work out that Putin is going to escalate. As I’ve been saying all day it’s his only option. He’s cornered himself
He may not declare total war but he’s going to up the stakes for sure
A deeply menacing moment for the world
This is before the Bank of England puts up interest rates to stem the inflation that has become rampant on Sunak's watch and under his policies. He and his chums at the treasury have also clearly been a bulwark against meaningful post brexit reform.
Under Sunak we would be looking at not recession but depression, not higher indebtedness but bankruptcy.
Truss 4 points ahead best PM 40 36
But it does seem that the relationship is getting significantly less friendly.
My point is that attempts to escalate beyond a certain point risk losing the acquiescence of such states.
Not seen anything with fieldwork after that point yet (or indeed after the energy price cap announcement?)