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West Lancs looks like a LAB hold on small turnout – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,753
edited September 2022 in General
imageWest Lancs looks like a LAB hold on small turnout – politicalbetting.com

It looks as though the next Westminster by-election will be in the West Lancs seat which was held by Rosie Cooper for the Labour party with a 16% majority at the last election.

Read the full story here

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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,675
    Yep, looks a pretty boring bye election.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,819
    There are reports that both President Vladimir Putin and Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu will make a televised address to the Russian people today at 2000 MSK (1800 BST).
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Not gonna be exciting but swing to Lab will be informative.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,149
    Not convinced this will be massively fertile ground for Labour but let's see. They really need a swing in line with national polling to prevent the narrative being about Truss steadying the ship.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,819
    As I say here, Truss thinks Thatcher's imperious pig-headedness, at her height, is the only quality worth cosplaying. But a) Thatcher had earned it politically by winning elections and b) it was her undoing.

    Basically, Truss is choosing to cosplay Thatcher JUST before she fell.
    https://twitter.com/bunker_pod/status/1572135976092061696
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,819
    🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨
    Labour still leading the Conservatives by ten points in latest results from Deltapoll.
    Con 32% (-)
    Lab 42% (-2)
    Lib Dem 10% (+1)
    Other 16% (-1)
    Fieldwork: 16 - 20 September 2022
    Sample: 2,084 GB adults
    (Changes from 9 - 12 September 2022) https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1572246716144762880/photo/1
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,671
    IshmaelZ said:

    Not gonna be exciting but swing to Lab will be informative.

    What was the booze like? Don't tell me you haven't opened it. It's 4pm on a Tuesday ffs.
  • Options
    LAB well clear last time.

    No pressure on Liz. Keir will want to see a big swing

    LD not winning here.

    Overall a not very exciting or interesting by election.
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,909
    edited September 2022
    West Lancs:

    Don't really know it well, but a couple of thoughts on why it isn't really "red wall", which was suggested on previous topic.

    1. Looking at the ward map, Skelmersdale seems almost as big a part of this seat as Wakefield was in, er, Wakefield.
    2. Liverpool affinity factor - probably stronger here in areas that were kept out of Merseyside than in Southport which was lumped in.
    3. It's a, somewhat improbable, university seat (Edge Hill). (cue PB tutting no doubt).
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,336
    Scott_xP said:

    Absolute CAR-CRASH interview by @trussliz, wilting under smart questioning by @BethRigby, on her outdated trickle-down economics.

    Recorded, quite literally, while the US President she is about to meet, tweets this:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1572238135525838850 https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1572244208697905152/photo/1

    Truss is a faceless nonentity with a weird voice, ungainly posture and bizarre policies that seem to play directly into Labour's hands.

    She has so far scored the unique achievement of making Sir Keir Royale look both charismatic and sensible in comparison. An odd choice by the Tories.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,334
    edited September 2022

    Scott_xP said:

    Absolute CAR-CRASH interview by @trussliz, wilting under smart questioning by @BethRigby, on her outdated trickle-down economics.

    Recorded, quite literally, while the US President she is about to meet, tweets this:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1572238135525838850 https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1572244208697905152/photo/1

    Not remotely a 'car crash'. Nor is what Liz Truss is doing, 'trickle down' economics.

    Trickle down economics is cutting taxes only on the rich, eg cutting only the top rate of tax, because you believe that will grow the economy.

    Truss is proposing cutting taxes on everyone, via NI and Corporation Tax. That's simply tax cutting, that's not trickle down economics. Oh and its a cut back to the rates that existed *checks notes* five months ago, reversing a rise opposed by *checks notes* Keir Starmer, you, the Lib Dems and the Labour Party.

    Considering you used to support the Conservative Party, and considering that you were opposed to the NI rise when it was announced, and considering you were opposed to the corporation tax rise when it was announced, I have to wonder what all this bullshit about trickle down economics is about now?
    No she isn't - because NI has already been returned to the 2021 rates for those who earn less than £30,000 and Corporation tax changes only impacted companies with over £50,000 a year profit.

    I'm sorry but I wouldn't call anyone earning £30,000 a low paid worker (they aren't well paid but it's not less than the median full time salary.
  • Options
    MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    IshmaelZ said:

    Not gonna be exciting but swing to Lab will be informative.

    If there is one.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    TOPPING said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Not gonna be exciting but swing to Lab will be informative.

    What was the booze like? Don't tell me you haven't opened it. It's 4pm on a Tuesday ffs.
    Strict, strict 6 pm embargo in place here. Plus it is currently at supermarket shelf temp.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,336
    A byelection borefest in a safe Labour seat.

    Will tell us very little/nothing.

    Next.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,110
    Am I the only one sad enough to notice the use of an em dash as a negative indicator in that table?
  • Options
    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Absolute CAR-CRASH interview by @trussliz, wilting under smart questioning by @BethRigby, on her outdated trickle-down economics.

    Recorded, quite literally, while the US President she is about to meet, tweets this:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1572238135525838850 https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1572244208697905152/photo/1

    Not remotely a 'car crash'. Nor is what Liz Truss is doing, 'trickle down' economics.

    Trickle down economics is cutting taxes only on the rich, eg cutting only the top rate of tax, because you believe that will grow the economy.

    Truss is proposing cutting taxes on everyone, via NI and Corporation Tax. That's simply tax cutting, that's not trickle down economics. Oh and its a cut back to the rates that existed *checks notes* five months ago, reversing a rise opposed by *checks notes* Keir Starmer, you, the Lib Dems and the Labour Party.

    Considering you used to support the Conservative Party, and considering that you were opposed to the NI rise when it was announced, and considering you were opposed to the corporation tax rise when it was announced, I have to wonder what all this bullshit about trickle down economics is about now?
    No she isn't - because NI has already been returned to the 2021 rates for those who earn less than £30,000 and Corporation tax changes only impacted companies with over £50,000 a year profit.
    Bollocks has it. What was the marginal rate of NI for someone earning £13k twelve months ago? What is the marginal rate of NI for someone earning £13k today?

    Fiddling with starting rates of the tax, which are subsequently to be frozen in a high inflation environment, does not revert the rise in a marginal rate of tax.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,534
    Scott_xP said:

    There are reports that both President Vladimir Putin and Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu will make a televised address to the Russian people today at 2000 MSK (1800 BST).

    (FPT)
    No doubt to announce the referendum results in advance.

    It is expected that Russian president Vladimir Putin makes a special statement on Ukraine today at 20-00 msk, after that a statement from minister of defence Sergey Shoygu is expected</i<
    https://twitter.com/ElenaChernenko/status/1572238820493627399

  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,534
    Erdoğan to Putin: Return Crimea to ‘rightful owners’
    Turkish leader joins parade of leaders dealing blows to Putin.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/return-crimea-turkey-president-erdogan-putin-russia/
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,671
    IshmaelZ said:

    TOPPING said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Not gonna be exciting but swing to Lab will be informative.

    What was the booze like? Don't tell me you haven't opened it. It's 4pm on a Tuesday ffs.
    Strict, strict 6 pm embargo in place here. Plus it is currently at supermarket shelf temp.
    Will check back at 6.01 but yes I know what you mean. I try to be booze free Mon-Thurs, Mon-Fri during the season. Pre-lockdown I didn't drink on Sundays but that went out the window.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,384
    RobD said:

    Am I the only one sad enough to notice the use of an em dash as a negative indicator in that table?

    No. A sensitivity to detail can be a very useful thing to have if one produces reports, docuiments, etc. ...
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,334

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Absolute CAR-CRASH interview by @trussliz, wilting under smart questioning by @BethRigby, on her outdated trickle-down economics.

    Recorded, quite literally, while the US President she is about to meet, tweets this:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1572238135525838850 https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1572244208697905152/photo/1

    Not remotely a 'car crash'. Nor is what Liz Truss is doing, 'trickle down' economics.

    Trickle down economics is cutting taxes only on the rich, eg cutting only the top rate of tax, because you believe that will grow the economy.

    Truss is proposing cutting taxes on everyone, via NI and Corporation Tax. That's simply tax cutting, that's not trickle down economics. Oh and its a cut back to the rates that existed *checks notes* five months ago, reversing a rise opposed by *checks notes* Keir Starmer, you, the Lib Dems and the Labour Party.

    Considering you used to support the Conservative Party, and considering that you were opposed to the NI rise when it was announced, and considering you were opposed to the corporation tax rise when it was announced, I have to wonder what all this bullshit about trickle down economics is about now?
    No she isn't - because NI has already been returned to the 2021 rates for those who earn less than £30,000 and Corporation tax changes only impacted companies with over £50,000 a year profit.
    Bollocks has it. What was the marginal rate of NI for someone earning £13k twelve months ago? What is the marginal rate of NI for someone earning £13k today?

    Fiddling with starting rates of the tax, which are subsequently to be frozen in a high inflation environment, does not revert the rise in a marginal rate of tax.
    NI in 2021/22 would have been £411.84, tax £86

    Post July 6th it's £56.97 for NI and £86 for income tax

  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,230
    The official Ukranian number is now 67% of known Russian tanks - 2,216 of 3,300 - lost in the conflict so far. Only seven months in.

    The vast majority of what are left, are Vietnam-era T-62 relics that have been in storage for half a century, firing North Korean ammo, and will be close to a waste of good NLAWs as far as the defenders are concerned.

    How does a ‘mobilisation’ help the situation, that Russia is unable to train and supply the troops it has already, let alone tens of thousands more, that are surely destined for the meat-grinder?

    I hope their wives and mothers know how pointless these deaths will be, and just how expendable Putin considers their husbands and sons, in persuit of his dreams of a 21st century Soviet Empire.
  • Options
    Scott_xP said:

    There are reports that both President Vladimir Putin and Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu will make a televised address to the Russian people today at 2000 MSK (1800 BST).

    It'll be some red meat for the neo-nazi Russian nationalists who are incensed that he is losing.
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,930
    edited September 2022
    eek said:

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Absolute CAR-CRASH interview by @trussliz, wilting under smart questioning by @BethRigby, on her outdated trickle-down economics.

    Recorded, quite literally, while the US President she is about to meet, tweets this:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1572238135525838850 https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1572244208697905152/photo/1

    Not remotely a 'car crash'. Nor is what Liz Truss is doing, 'trickle down' economics.

    Trickle down economics is cutting taxes only on the rich, eg cutting only the top rate of tax, because you believe that will grow the economy.

    Truss is proposing cutting taxes on everyone, via NI and Corporation Tax. That's simply tax cutting, that's not trickle down economics. Oh and its a cut back to the rates that existed *checks notes* five months ago, reversing a rise opposed by *checks notes* Keir Starmer, you, the Lib Dems and the Labour Party.

    Considering you used to support the Conservative Party, and considering that you were opposed to the NI rise when it was announced, and considering you were opposed to the corporation tax rise when it was announced, I have to wonder what all this bullshit about trickle down economics is about now?
    No she isn't - because NI has already been returned to the 2021 rates for those who earn less than £30,000 and Corporation tax changes only impacted companies with over £50,000 a year profit.
    Bollocks has it. What was the marginal rate of NI for someone earning £13k twelve months ago? What is the marginal rate of NI for someone earning £13k today?

    Fiddling with starting rates of the tax, which are subsequently to be frozen in a high inflation environment, does not revert the rise in a marginal rate of tax.
    NI in 2021/22 would have been £411.84, tax £86

    Post July 6th it's £56.97 for NI and £86 for income tax

    That wasn't the question, the question was what is the marginal tax rate, not overall tax.

    The marginal tax rate is higher, even people working Part Time on National Minimum Wage today will be reaching the new NI tax threshold still and facing a higher marginal rate of tax if they work any extra time than they would have twelve months ago. They're not earning anything like £30k.

    I absolutely would count part timers on NMW to be "low earners".
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,534
    Sick burn from POTUS.
    Maybe he was bugged by the seating arrangements after all ? :wink:

    https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1572218921347866624
    I am sick and tired of trickle-down economics. It has never worked.

    We're building an economy from the bottom up and middle out.
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    MISTY said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Not gonna be exciting but swing to Lab will be informative.

    If there is one.
    There will.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,602
    Scott_xP said:

    As I say here, Truss thinks Thatcher's imperious pig-headedness, at her height, is the only quality worth cosplaying. But a) Thatcher had earned it politically by winning elections and b) it was her undoing.

    Basically, Truss is choosing to cosplay Thatcher JUST before she fell.
    https://twitter.com/bunker_pod/status/1572135976092061696

    Next election shaping up as Thatcher Not Thatcher vs Blair Not Blair.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,110
    Carnyx said:

    RobD said:

    Am I the only one sad enough to notice the use of an em dash as a negative indicator in that table?

    No. A sensitivity to detail can be a very useful thing to have if one produces reports, docuiments, etc. ...
    How about we team up and fix the 600+ constituency pages? I go from A-M, you from N-Z.
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    Nigelb said:

    Erdoğan to Putin: Return Crimea to ‘rightful owners’
    Turkish leader joins parade of leaders dealing blows to Putin.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/return-crimea-turkey-president-erdogan-putin-russia/

    Is it too much to hope that he might set an example and return Cyprus and the chunk he's taken of Syria to their rightful owners?
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,384
    edited September 2022
    RobD said:

    Carnyx said:

    RobD said:

    Am I the only one sad enough to notice the use of an em dash as a negative indicator in that table?

    No. A sensitivity to detail can be a very useful thing to have if one produces reports, docuiments, etc. ...
    How about we team up and fix the 600+ constituency pages? I go from A-M, you from N-Z.
    Urgh, no thanks! This reminds me I've just finished my tea so I have no exc use not to go and do some more document checking anyway ...
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,110
    Carnyx said:

    RobD said:

    Carnyx said:

    RobD said:

    Am I the only one sad enough to notice the use of an em dash as a negative indicator in that table?

    No. A sensitivity to detail can be a very useful thing to have if one produces reports, docuiments, etc. ...
    How about we team up and fix the 600+ constituency pages? I go from A-M, you from N-Z.
    Urgh, no thanks!
    I wasn't being serious... hah!
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,149

    Nigelb said:

    Erdoğan to Putin: Return Crimea to ‘rightful owners’
    Turkish leader joins parade of leaders dealing blows to Putin.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/return-crimea-turkey-president-erdogan-putin-russia/

    Is it too much to hope that he might set an example and return Cyprus and the chunk he's taken of Syria to their rightful owners?
    Return the chunk he's taken out of Syria to the Kurds?
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,685
    MISTY said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Not gonna be exciting but swing to Lab will be informative.

    If there is one.
    Are you expecting a Lizzie bounce on 2019 results? Brave. Unlikely, but not impossible.
  • Options
    Reposted FPT:

    BBC: "Prime Minister Liz Truss has said she was prepared to take "difficult decisions" such as removing a cap on bankers' bonuses..."

    She doesn't seem to have found it too difficult as far as I can see.
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    The official Ukranian number is now 67% of known Russian tanks - 2,216 of 3,300 - lost in the conflict so far. Only seven months in.

    The vast majority of what are left, are Vietnam-era T-62 relics that have been in storage for half a century, firing North Korean ammo, and will be close to a waste of good NLAWs as far as the defenders are concerned.

    How does a ‘mobilisation’ help the situation, that Russia is unable to train and supply the troops it has already, let alone tens of thousands more, that are surely destined for the meat-grinder?

    I hope their wives and mothers know how pointless these deaths will be, and just how expendable Putin considers their husbands and sons, in persuit of his dreams of a 21st century Soviet Empire.

    There have been pictures of brand-new tanks coming off the production line, so production has restarted in at least a minimal way. But there are also rumours they are tanks to fill foreign export orders...
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,334

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Absolute CAR-CRASH interview by @trussliz, wilting under smart questioning by @BethRigby, on her outdated trickle-down economics.

    Recorded, quite literally, while the US President she is about to meet, tweets this:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1572238135525838850 https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1572244208697905152/photo/1

    Not remotely a 'car crash'. Nor is what Liz Truss is doing, 'trickle down' economics.

    Trickle down economics is cutting taxes only on the rich, eg cutting only the top rate of tax, because you believe that will grow the economy.

    Truss is proposing cutting taxes on everyone, via NI and Corporation Tax. That's simply tax cutting, that's not trickle down economics. Oh and its a cut back to the rates that existed *checks notes* five months ago, reversing a rise opposed by *checks notes* Keir Starmer, you, the Lib Dems and the Labour Party.

    Considering you used to support the Conservative Party, and considering that you were opposed to the NI rise when it was announced, and considering you were opposed to the corporation tax rise when it was announced, I have to wonder what all this bullshit about trickle down economics is about now?
    No she isn't - because NI has already been returned to the 2021 rates for those who earn less than £30,000 and Corporation tax changes only impacted companies with over £50,000 a year profit.
    Bollocks has it. What was the marginal rate of NI for someone earning £13k twelve months ago? What is the marginal rate of NI for someone earning £13k today?

    Fiddling with starting rates of the tax, which are subsequently to be frozen in a high inflation environment, does not revert the rise in a marginal rate of tax.
    NI in 2021/22 would have been £411.84, tax £86

    Post July 6th it's £56.97 for NI and £86 for income tax

    That wasn't the question, the question was what is the marginal tax rate, not overall tax.

    The marginal tax rate is higher, even people working Part Time on National Minimum Wage today will be reaching the new NI tax threshold still and facing a higher marginal rate of tax if they work any extra time than they would have twelve months ago. They're not earning anything like £30k.

    I absolutely would count part timers on NMW to be "low earners".
    Yep the marginal rate is higher but until they hit £30,000 or so (which they are not going to do) lower paid workers are better off than they were in 2021/22....

  • Options
    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    Erdoğan to Putin: Return Crimea to ‘rightful owners’
    Turkish leader joins parade of leaders dealing blows to Putin.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/return-crimea-turkey-president-erdogan-putin-russia/

    Is it too much to hope that he might set an example and return Cyprus and the chunk he's taken of Syria to their rightful owners?
    Return the chunk he's taken out of Syria to the Kurds?
    That's even less likely than him giving it back to the Syrians, given that his whole reason for invading is to stop them getting their own state.
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,909
    edited September 2022
    Truss honeymoon tracker:

    9 x pollsters published in month prior to Truss:
    Last poll before average: C 31, L 41.7

    5 x those pollsters have published since Truss:
    Last poll before avg of those 5: C 29.4, L 42.4
    First poll after avg of those 5: 30.6, L 42.4

    Post Truss swing +0.6% with up to 4 pollsters still to report.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,230

    Scott_xP said:

    Absolute CAR-CRASH interview by @trussliz, wilting under smart questioning by @BethRigby, on her outdated trickle-down economics.

    Recorded, quite literally, while the US President she is about to meet, tweets this:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1572238135525838850 https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1572244208697905152/photo/1

    Truss is a faceless nonentity with a weird voice, ungainly posture and bizarre policies that seem to play directly into Labour's hands.

    She has so far scored the unique achievement of making Sir Keir Royale look both charismatic and sensible in comparison. An odd choice by the Tories.
    Remember that second place was Rishi Rich, the man who clearly didn’t know how to put petrol in a car, let alone know how much it cost, with as much empathy as the spreadsheets on which he lived his life.

    Third place was the woman who introduced a bill on gender identity that had been written by Stonewall, and she then denied in the campaign that it did what it said it did.

    Fourth place was a future star, but still very wet behind the ears having only been an MP for five years and aged 42.

    Is it any surprise that Mrs Truss was the winner?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,534

    Scott_xP said:

    Absolute CAR-CRASH interview by @trussliz, wilting under smart questioning by @BethRigby, on her outdated trickle-down economics.

    Recorded, quite literally, while the US President she is about to meet, tweets this:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1572238135525838850 https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1572244208697905152/photo/1

    Not remotely a 'car crash'. Nor is what Liz Truss is doing, 'trickle down' economics.

    Trickle down economics is cutting taxes only on the rich, eg cutting only the top rate of tax, because you believe that will grow the economy.

    Truss is proposing cutting taxes on everyone, via NI and Corporation Tax...
    Everyone pays corporation tax ?

    Truss is proposing to boost economic growth by borrowing (at a time of significantly increased government borrowing costs) by borrowing more to fund tax cuts.
    That's a very inefficient way of boosting growth.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,149

    Scott_xP said:

    There are reports that both President Vladimir Putin and Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu will make a televised address to the Russian people today at 2000 MSK (1800 BST).

    It'll be some red meat for the neo-nazi Russian nationalists who are incensed that he is losing.
    Expect some fairly blood curdling rhetoric and probably a reference to existential struggle against a NATO hell-bent on destroying the Russian nation. Serves the double purpose of appeasing his hardliners and spooking the West.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,149

    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    Erdoğan to Putin: Return Crimea to ‘rightful owners’
    Turkish leader joins parade of leaders dealing blows to Putin.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/return-crimea-turkey-president-erdogan-putin-russia/

    Is it too much to hope that he might set an example and return Cyprus and the chunk he's taken of Syria to their rightful owners?
    Return the chunk he's taken out of Syria to the Kurds?
    That's even less likely than him giving it back to the Syrians, given that his whole reason for invading is to stop them getting their own state.
    Yes I know
  • Options
    DriverDriver Posts: 4,522

    Scott_xP said:

    Absolute CAR-CRASH interview by @trussliz, wilting under smart questioning by @BethRigby, on her outdated trickle-down economics.

    Recorded, quite literally, while the US President she is about to meet, tweets this:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1572238135525838850 https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1572244208697905152/photo/1

    Not remotely a 'car crash'. Nor is what Liz Truss is doing, 'trickle down' economics.

    Trickle down economics is cutting taxes only on the rich, eg cutting only the top rate of tax, because you believe that will grow the economy.

    Truss is proposing cutting taxes on everyone, via NI and Corporation Tax. That's simply tax cutting, that's not trickle down economics. Oh and its a cut back to the rates that existed *checks notes* five months ago, reversing a rise opposed by *checks notes* Keir Starmer, you, the Lib Dems and the Labour Party.

    Considering you used to support the Conservative Party, and considering that you were opposed to the NI rise when it was announced, and considering you were opposed to the corporation tax rise when it was announced, I have to wonder what all this bullshit about trickle down economics is about now?
    Europe.
  • Options
    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Absolute CAR-CRASH interview by @trussliz, wilting under smart questioning by @BethRigby, on her outdated trickle-down economics.

    Recorded, quite literally, while the US President she is about to meet, tweets this:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1572238135525838850 https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1572244208697905152/photo/1

    Not remotely a 'car crash'. Nor is what Liz Truss is doing, 'trickle down' economics.

    Trickle down economics is cutting taxes only on the rich, eg cutting only the top rate of tax, because you believe that will grow the economy.

    Truss is proposing cutting taxes on everyone, via NI and Corporation Tax. That's simply tax cutting, that's not trickle down economics. Oh and its a cut back to the rates that existed *checks notes* five months ago, reversing a rise opposed by *checks notes* Keir Starmer, you, the Lib Dems and the Labour Party.

    Considering you used to support the Conservative Party, and considering that you were opposed to the NI rise when it was announced, and considering you were opposed to the corporation tax rise when it was announced, I have to wonder what all this bullshit about trickle down economics is about now?
    No she isn't - because NI has already been returned to the 2021 rates for those who earn less than £30,000 and Corporation tax changes only impacted companies with over £50,000 a year profit.
    Bollocks has it. What was the marginal rate of NI for someone earning £13k twelve months ago? What is the marginal rate of NI for someone earning £13k today?

    Fiddling with starting rates of the tax, which are subsequently to be frozen in a high inflation environment, does not revert the rise in a marginal rate of tax.
    NI in 2021/22 would have been £411.84, tax £86

    Post July 6th it's £56.97 for NI and £86 for income tax

    That wasn't the question, the question was what is the marginal tax rate, not overall tax.

    The marginal tax rate is higher, even people working Part Time on National Minimum Wage today will be reaching the new NI tax threshold still and facing a higher marginal rate of tax if they work any extra time than they would have twelve months ago. They're not earning anything like £30k.

    I absolutely would count part timers on NMW to be "low earners".
    Yep the marginal rate is higher but until they hit £30,000 or so (which they are not going to do) lower paid workers are better off than they were in 2021/22....

    So yes the marginal rate is higher, that's precisely the point.

    So reversing the marginal rate increase is still the right thing to do and leaves even low earners better off, nobody is proposing to reverse the threshold changes as far as I know.

    If someone working part time on National Minimum Wage works just four days a week is offered a fifth day's work, they will take home less post-tax pay from that fifth day's work now than they would have under the tax rates of a year ago. That is not OK in my eyes, you seem to be saying that's justified?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,534

    Nigelb said:

    Erdoğan to Putin: Return Crimea to ‘rightful owners’
    Turkish leader joins parade of leaders dealing blows to Putin.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/return-crimea-turkey-president-erdogan-putin-russia/

    Is it too much to hope that he might set an example and return Cyprus and the chunk he's taken of Syria to their rightful owners?
    Almost certainly, yes.

    I think you're rather missing the point. This isn't about moral authority (of which Erdogan possesses very little indeed) but about Putin's international isolation.
  • Options

    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    Erdoğan to Putin: Return Crimea to ‘rightful owners’
    Turkish leader joins parade of leaders dealing blows to Putin.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/return-crimea-turkey-president-erdogan-putin-russia/

    Is it too much to hope that he might set an example and return Cyprus and the chunk he's taken of Syria to their rightful owners?
    Return the chunk he's taken out of Syria to the Kurds?
    That's even less likely than him giving it back to the Syrians, given that his whole reason for invading is to stop them getting their own state.
    BTW LuckyGuy, do you agree with the Dutch report into the MH17 shootdown, or are you still taking the (many and varied) Russian lines?
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,819
    Q: Labour's policy to tax the energy companies [to subsidise bills] is supported by 68% of the public, according to polls. You’re prepared to be unpopular aren’t you?

    PM: “Yes, Yes I am.”
    https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1572234554458480643
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,334
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Absolute CAR-CRASH interview by @trussliz, wilting under smart questioning by @BethRigby, on her outdated trickle-down economics.

    Recorded, quite literally, while the US President she is about to meet, tweets this:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1572238135525838850 https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1572244208697905152/photo/1

    Not remotely a 'car crash'. Nor is what Liz Truss is doing, 'trickle down' economics.

    Trickle down economics is cutting taxes only on the rich, eg cutting only the top rate of tax, because you believe that will grow the economy.

    Truss is proposing cutting taxes on everyone, via NI and Corporation Tax...
    Everyone pays corporation tax ?

    Truss is proposing to boost economic growth by borrowing (at a time of significantly increased government borrowing costs) by borrowing more to fund tax cuts.
    That's a very inefficient way of boosting growth.
    It also removes any incentive for companies invest as the sane approach will be to maximise profits while rates are artificially low (because they will need to rise at some point to cover interest costs if nothing else).

    Which is why Sunak's approach of higher corporation tax but a lot of allowances for capital investment was a way better approach.

    We aren't going to get richer from lower taxes, we will get richer from productivity improvements.
  • Options
    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    Erdoğan to Putin: Return Crimea to ‘rightful owners’
    Turkish leader joins parade of leaders dealing blows to Putin.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/return-crimea-turkey-president-erdogan-putin-russia/

    Is it too much to hope that he might set an example and return Cyprus and the chunk he's taken of Syria to their rightful owners?
    Return the chunk he's taken out of Syria to the Kurds?
    That's even less likely than him giving it back to the Syrians, given that his whole reason for invading is to stop them getting their own state.
    Yes I know
    One of the world's axis (China-Russia/America-West) needs to decide that Erdogan's not worth the hassle. They will be much less of a pain when they've only got one side to go to.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,230
    edited September 2022

    Sandpit said:

    The official Ukranian number is now 67% of known Russian tanks - 2,216 of 3,300 - lost in the conflict so far. Only seven months in.

    The vast majority of what are left, are Vietnam-era T-62 relics that have been in storage for half a century, firing North Korean ammo, and will be close to a waste of good NLAWs as far as the defenders are concerned.

    How does a ‘mobilisation’ help the situation, that Russia is unable to train and supply the troops it has already, let alone tens of thousands more, that are surely destined for the meat-grinder?

    I hope their wives and mothers know how pointless these deaths will be, and just how expendable Putin considers their husbands and sons, in persuit of his dreams of a 21st century Soviet Empire.

    There have been pictures of brand-new tanks coming off the production line, so production has restarted in at least a minimal way. But there are also rumours they are tanks to fill foreign export orders...
    Those tanks are probably about as real as the ones on the parade ground in Moscow on Veterans’ Day.

    The enemy has lost an average of 10 tanks a day since the war started, and before the war they had a theoretical manufacturing capacity of about 10 tanks a month. The new T-90M was about one every couple of months, and using a pile of Western electronics that are no longer available.

    Only Russia could possibly prioritise export orders, over equipment for their own war!
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,149
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Absolute CAR-CRASH interview by @trussliz, wilting under smart questioning by @BethRigby, on her outdated trickle-down economics.

    Recorded, quite literally, while the US President she is about to meet, tweets this:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1572238135525838850 https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1572244208697905152/photo/1

    Not remotely a 'car crash'. Nor is what Liz Truss is doing, 'trickle down' economics.

    Trickle down economics is cutting taxes only on the rich, eg cutting only the top rate of tax, because you believe that will grow the economy.

    Truss is proposing cutting taxes on everyone, via NI and Corporation Tax...
    Everyone pays corporation tax ?

    Truss is proposing to boost economic growth by borrowing (at a time of significantly increased government borrowing costs) by borrowing more to fund tax cuts.
    That's a very inefficient way of boosting growth.
    It doesn't even matter if it's trickle down economics or not. The narrative today is that it's trickle down economics, that's what the media will run with, and it's reinforced by the headlines of her supporting removing the bankers' bonus cap.

    The comms management is terrible. One thing the mendacious old bounder Boris was good at was doing one lot of very Tory things while pretending to the electorate that he was doing something else entirely. Truss is doing a few things that have some elements that are very Tory and others less so, but somehow managing to make them look even more Tory than they actually are.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,671
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Absolute CAR-CRASH interview by @trussliz, wilting under smart questioning by @BethRigby, on her outdated trickle-down economics.

    Recorded, quite literally, while the US President she is about to meet, tweets this:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1572238135525838850 https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1572244208697905152/photo/1

    Truss is a faceless nonentity with a weird voice, ungainly posture and bizarre policies that seem to play directly into Labour's hands.

    She has so far scored the unique achievement of making Sir Keir Royale look both charismatic and sensible in comparison. An odd choice by the Tories.
    Remember that second place was Rishi Rich, the man who clearly didn’t know how to put petrol in a car, let alone know how much it cost, with as much empathy as the spreadsheets on which he lived his life.

    Third place was the woman who introduced a bill on gender identity that had been written by Stonewall, and she then denied in the campaign that it did what it said it did.

    Fourth place was a future star, but still very wet behind the ears having only been an MP for five years and aged 42.

    Is it any surprise that Mrs Truss was the winner?
    I nevertheless think Rishi wins the like to go for a pint with test. His speaking manner is easy and friendly. Moreso (although I'm sure it is more with her friends) than Truss.

    To me, Rishi, for all his where does the green wire go-ness, seems the more human.
  • Options
    pingping Posts: 3,748
    Interesting RSA podcast with Marie Le Conte on her new book, “Escape: How a generation shaped, destroyed and survived the internet'”

    https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/bridges-to-the-future/id1385648485
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,534
    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Absolute CAR-CRASH interview by @trussliz, wilting under smart questioning by @BethRigby, on her outdated trickle-down economics.

    Recorded, quite literally, while the US President she is about to meet, tweets this:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1572238135525838850 https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1572244208697905152/photo/1

    Not remotely a 'car crash'. Nor is what Liz Truss is doing, 'trickle down' economics.

    Trickle down economics is cutting taxes only on the rich, eg cutting only the top rate of tax, because you believe that will grow the economy.

    Truss is proposing cutting taxes on everyone, via NI and Corporation Tax...
    Everyone pays corporation tax ?

    Truss is proposing to boost economic growth by borrowing (at a time of significantly increased government borrowing costs) by borrowing more to fund tax cuts.
    That's a very inefficient way of boosting growth.
    It also removes any incentive for companies invest as the sane approach will be to maximise profits while rates are artificially low (because they will need to rise at some point to cover interest costs if nothing else).

    Which is why Sunak's approach of higher corporation tax but a lot of allowances for capital investment was a way better approach.

    We aren't going to get richer from lower taxes, we will get richer from productivity improvements.
    Indeed.
    That's one of the reasons it's an extremely inefficient means of encouraging growth.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,149
    Scott_xP said:

    Q: Labour's policy to tax the energy companies [to subsidise bills] is supported by 68% of the public, according to polls. You’re prepared to be unpopular aren’t you?

    PM: “Yes, Yes I am.”
    https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1572234554458480643

    I don't think that policy is going to survive. As soon as one of the energy or utilities companies issues its next trading update the noise is going to become deafening.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,998
    Truss should tweet how she is fed up with so called Inflation Reduction measures that only serve to increase inflation, especially when they are mumbled from 14 rows back.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,671
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Erdoğan to Putin: Return Crimea to ‘rightful owners’
    Turkish leader joins parade of leaders dealing blows to Putin.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/return-crimea-turkey-president-erdogan-putin-russia/

    Is it too much to hope that he might set an example and return Cyprus and the chunk he's taken of Syria to their rightful owners?
    Almost certainly, yes.

    I think you're rather missing the point. This isn't about moral authority (of which Erdogan possesses very little indeed) but about Putin's international isolation.
    I think many leaders have been isolated internationally. They need key allies not to desert them and they can brush the rest off. That is why the China relationship is so important. I think the people who support (or, more accurately, didn't condemn) him represent billions of people, don't they?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,230
    edited September 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    Q: Labour's policy to tax the energy companies [to subsidise bills] is supported by 68% of the public, according to polls. You’re prepared to be unpopular aren’t you?

    PM: “Yes, Yes I am.”
    https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1572234554458480643

    Oh dear, we’re back to “the energy companies” bogeyman from the media and Labour.

    How exactly does anyone propose the British government taxes Qatargas and Saudi Aramco, who are the companies doing well out of the crisis?

    The company that bills you for domestic energy is barely breaking even, in fact many of them have gone bust in the last two years.
  • Options

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    Erdoğan to Putin: Return Crimea to ‘rightful owners’
    Turkish leader joins parade of leaders dealing blows to Putin.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/return-crimea-turkey-president-erdogan-putin-russia/

    Is it too much to hope that he might set an example and return Cyprus and the chunk he's taken of Syria to their rightful owners?
    Return the chunk he's taken out of Syria to the Kurds?
    That's even less likely than him giving it back to the Syrians, given that his whole reason for invading is to stop them getting their own state.
    Yes I know
    One of the world's axis (China-Russia/America-West) needs to decide that Erdogan's not worth the hassle. They will be much less of a pain when they've only got one side to go to.
    He'll make that decision for them, given his current *interesting* approach to economic theory. If it works, he'll be hailed a hero for consigning every modern economics book into the dustbin. But I don't think the dustmen need be worried about lifting heavy weights...
  • Options
    DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Absolute CAR-CRASH interview by @trussliz, wilting under smart questioning by @BethRigby, on her outdated trickle-down economics.

    Recorded, quite literally, while the US President she is about to meet, tweets this:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1572238135525838850 https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1572244208697905152/photo/1

    Not remotely a 'car crash'. Nor is what Liz Truss is doing, 'trickle down' economics.

    Trickle down economics is cutting taxes only on the rich, eg cutting only the top rate of tax, because you believe that will grow the economy.

    Truss is proposing cutting taxes on everyone, via NI and Corporation Tax...
    Everyone pays corporation tax ?

    Truss is proposing to boost economic growth by borrowing (at a time of significantly increased government borrowing costs) by borrowing more to fund tax cuts.
    That's a very inefficient way of boosting growth.
    Yes, everyone pays corporation tax. Effectively, only individuals pay tax - if you raise corporation tax it reduces profits which means less being passed on to employees through wages and (for those companies that have them) shareholders (probably mostly pension funds) - or raised prices being charged to their customers.
  • Options

    Scott_xP said:

    Absolute CAR-CRASH interview by @trussliz, wilting under smart questioning by @BethRigby, on her outdated trickle-down economics.

    Recorded, quite literally, while the US President she is about to meet, tweets this:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1572238135525838850 https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1572244208697905152/photo/1

    Not remotely a 'car crash'. Nor is what Liz Truss is doing, 'trickle down' economics.

    Trickle down economics is cutting taxes only on the rich, eg cutting only the top rate of tax, because you believe that will grow the economy.

    Truss is proposing cutting taxes on everyone, via NI and Corporation Tax. That's simply tax cutting, that's not trickle down economics. Oh and its a cut back to the rates that existed *checks notes* five months ago, reversing a rise opposed by *checks notes* Keir Starmer, you, the Lib Dems and the Labour Party.

    Considering you used to support the Conservative Party, and considering that you were opposed to the NI rise when it was announced, and considering you were opposed to the corporation tax rise when it was announced, I have to wonder what all this bullshit about trickle down economics is about now?
    He’s just bitterly anti-Tory regardless of the merits on any point

  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,580
    Scott_xP said:

    As I say here, Truss thinks Thatcher's imperious pig-headedness, at her height, is the only quality worth cosplaying. But a) Thatcher had earned it politically by winning elections and b) it was her undoing.

    Basically, Truss is choosing to cosplay Thatcher JUST before she fell.
    https://twitter.com/bunker_pod/status/1572135976092061696

    Yes, people remember the caricature and think that's all there was.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,110
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Q: Labour's policy to tax the energy companies [to subsidise bills] is supported by 68% of the public, according to polls. You’re prepared to be unpopular aren’t you?

    PM: “Yes, Yes I am.”
    https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1572234554458480643

    Oh dear, we’re back to “the energy companies” bogeyman from the media and Labour.

    How exactly does anyone propose the British government taxes Qatargas and Saudi Aramco, who are the companies doing well out of the crisis?

    The company that bills you for domestic energy is barely breaking even, in fact many of them have gone bust in the last two years.
    Why are you bringing facts into this?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,534
    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Erdoğan to Putin: Return Crimea to ‘rightful owners’
    Turkish leader joins parade of leaders dealing blows to Putin.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/return-crimea-turkey-president-erdogan-putin-russia/

    Is it too much to hope that he might set an example and return Cyprus and the chunk he's taken of Syria to their rightful owners?
    Almost certainly, yes.

    I think you're rather missing the point. This isn't about moral authority (of which Erdogan possesses very little indeed) but about Putin's international isolation.
    I think many leaders have been isolated internationally. They need key allies not to desert them and they can brush the rest off. That is why the China relationship is so important. I think the people who support (or, more accurately, didn't condemn) him represent billions of people, don't they?
    Has China supplied a single artillery round to Russia ?
    I think the relationship is likely to grow frostier still if the nuclear talk continues.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,998
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    As I say here, Truss thinks Thatcher's imperious pig-headedness, at her height, is the only quality worth cosplaying. But a) Thatcher had earned it politically by winning elections and b) it was her undoing.

    Basically, Truss is choosing to cosplay Thatcher JUST before she fell.
    https://twitter.com/bunker_pod/status/1572135976092061696

    Yes, people remember the caricature and think that's all there was.
    The Lady's Not For Turning was 1980, the pig headedness served her very very well
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,534
    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Absolute CAR-CRASH interview by @trussliz, wilting under smart questioning by @BethRigby, on her outdated trickle-down economics.

    Recorded, quite literally, while the US President she is about to meet, tweets this:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1572238135525838850 https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1572244208697905152/photo/1

    Truss is a faceless nonentity with a weird voice, ungainly posture and bizarre policies that seem to play directly into Labour's hands.

    She has so far scored the unique achievement of making Sir Keir Royale look both charismatic and sensible in comparison. An odd choice by the Tories.
    Remember that second place was Rishi Rich, the man who clearly didn’t know how to put petrol in a car, let alone know how much it cost, with as much empathy as the spreadsheets on which he lived his life.

    Third place was the woman who introduced a bill on gender identity that had been written by Stonewall, and she then denied in the campaign that it did what it said it did.

    Fourth place was a future star, but still very wet behind the ears having only been an MP for five years and aged 42.

    Is it any surprise that Mrs Truss was the winner?
    I nevertheless think Rishi wins the like to go for a pint with test. His speaking manner is easy and friendly. Moreso (although I'm sure it is more with her friends) than Truss.

    To me, Rishi, for all his where does the green wire go-ness, seems the more human.
    He could even be the designated driver.
    If someone had fuelled up his car for him.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,580
    TimS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    There are reports that both President Vladimir Putin and Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu will make a televised address to the Russian people today at 2000 MSK (1800 BST).

    It'll be some red meat for the neo-nazi Russian nationalists who are incensed that he is losing.
    Expect some fairly blood curdling rhetoric and probably a reference to existential struggle against a NATO hell-bent on destroying the Russian nation. Serves the double purpose of appeasing his hardliners and spooking the West.
    The more he mentions nukes to spook the West the more he is struggling.
  • Options
    I feel people have already made their decision on Truss, and it is not a positive one.

    The “growth plan” is going to be fascinating.
    I suspect it will fall apart quite quickly.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 48,119

    The mad rat Putin is doing it. Declaration of war and full mobilisation
  • Options
    Leon said:


    The mad rat Putin is doing it. Declaration of war and full mobilisation

    Do you have a source inside the Kremlin?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,534
    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Absolute CAR-CRASH interview by @trussliz, wilting under smart questioning by @BethRigby, on her outdated trickle-down economics.

    Recorded, quite literally, while the US President she is about to meet, tweets this:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1572238135525838850 https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1572244208697905152/photo/1

    Not remotely a 'car crash'. Nor is what Liz Truss is doing, 'trickle down' economics.

    Trickle down economics is cutting taxes only on the rich, eg cutting only the top rate of tax, because you believe that will grow the economy.

    Truss is proposing cutting taxes on everyone, via NI and Corporation Tax...
    Everyone pays corporation tax ?

    Truss is proposing to boost economic growth by borrowing (at a time of significantly increased government borrowing costs) by borrowing more to fund tax cuts.
    That's a very inefficient way of boosting growth.
    It doesn't even matter if it's trickle down economics or not. The narrative today is that it's trickle down economics, that's what the media will run with, and it's reinforced by the headlines of her supporting removing the bankers' bonus cap.

    The comms management is terrible. One thing the mendacious old bounder Boris was good at was doing one lot of very Tory things while pretending to the electorate that he was doing something else entirely. Truss is doing a few things that have some elements that are very Tory and others less so, but somehow managing to make them look even more Tory than they actually are.
    Heard you on Today.
    I note you called her 'Truss' and the former Chancellor 'Rishi'. :smile:
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,219
    Pro_Rata said:

    West Lancs:

    Don't really know it well, but a couple of thoughts on why it isn't really "red wall", which was suggested on previous topic.

    1. Looking at the ward map, Skelmersdale seems almost as big a part of this seat as Wakefield was in, er, Wakefield.
    2. Liverpool affinity factor - probably stronger here in areas that were kept out of Merseyside than in Southport which was lumped in.
    3. It's a, somewhat improbable, university seat (Edge Hill). (cue PB tutting no doubt).

    Some of it is very well-to-do rural. Lots of footballers in Rufford, etc. Burscough and Ormskirk are nice enough small towns.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,336
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Absolute CAR-CRASH interview by @trussliz, wilting under smart questioning by @BethRigby, on her outdated trickle-down economics.

    Recorded, quite literally, while the US President she is about to meet, tweets this:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1572238135525838850 https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1572244208697905152/photo/1

    Truss is a faceless nonentity with a weird voice, ungainly posture and bizarre policies that seem to play directly into Labour's hands.

    She has so far scored the unique achievement of making Sir Keir Royale look both charismatic and sensible in comparison. An odd choice by the Tories.
    Remember that second place was Rishi Rich, the man who clearly didn’t know how to put petrol in a car, let alone know how much it cost, with as much empathy as the spreadsheets on which he lived his life.

    Third place was the woman who introduced a bill on gender identity that had been written by Stonewall, and she then denied in the campaign that it did what it said it did.

    Fourth place was a future star, but still very wet behind the ears having only been an MP for five years and aged 42.

    Is it any surprise that Mrs Truss was the winner


    ?
    When you put it like that it sounds like a very weak field!! 😃 but there were several better
    candidates. Tom T would have been a strong choice.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,671
    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Erdoğan to Putin: Return Crimea to ‘rightful owners’
    Turkish leader joins parade of leaders dealing blows to Putin.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/return-crimea-turkey-president-erdogan-putin-russia/

    Is it too much to hope that he might set an example and return Cyprus and the chunk he's taken of Syria to their rightful owners?
    Almost certainly, yes.

    I think you're rather missing the point. This isn't about moral authority (of which Erdogan possesses very little indeed) but about Putin's international isolation.
    I think many leaders have been isolated internationally. They need key allies not to desert them and they can brush the rest off. That is why the China relationship is so important. I think the people who support (or, more accurately, didn't condemn) him represent billions of people, don't they?
    Has China supplied a single artillery round to Russia ?
    I think the relationship is likely to grow frostier still if the nuclear talk continues.
    I'm sure Russia could use munitions from everywhere but that wasn't my point. China didn't condemn Russia at the UN, did they? I don't think so. Neither did India IIRC. And I don't think India sent them any tanks either. The issue being "international isolation" isn't complete without a great deal more of the world's population. Because surely you're not seeing this through the prism of the Anglo-American axis only.

    Hence the importance of the China relationship.
  • Options
    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Erdoğan to Putin: Return Crimea to ‘rightful owners’
    Turkish leader joins parade of leaders dealing blows to Putin.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/return-crimea-turkey-president-erdogan-putin-russia/

    Is it too much to hope that he might set an example and return Cyprus and the chunk he's taken of Syria to their rightful owners?
    Almost certainly, yes.

    I think you're rather missing the point. This isn't about moral authority (of which Erdogan possesses very little indeed) but about Putin's international isolation.
    I think many leaders have been isolated internationally. They need key allies not to desert them and they can brush the rest off. That is why the China relationship is so important. I think the people who support (or, more accurately, didn't condemn) him represent billions of people, don't they?
    Has China supplied a single artillery round to Russia ?
    I think the relationship is likely to grow frostier still if the nuclear talk continues.
    China really doesn’t want Russia to use nukes (against what, exactly?) - as before you can say “non-proliferation” the Japanese and South Koreans will have them too.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,384

    Some may recall during COVID the TravellingTabby website produced easy to understand and accessible stats. What I didn’t know was that the young man behind it was awarded the MBE for his work - and was invited to Westminster Abbey for the service yesterday:

    https://twitter.com/travellingtabby/status/1572245462157242374

    Excellent.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,998
    Re Russia. Just been reminded that if Putin made a formal declaration of war tonight then Belarus is treaty bound to support them
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    I feel people have already made their decision on Truss, and it is not a positive one.

    The “growth plan” is going to be fascinating.
    I suspect it will fall apart quite quickly.

    I think Truss is being quite smart in going for growth and being serious rather than flippantly chasing polls.

    Everyone at the minute is making extremely negative forecasts of doom and gloom, but there's a very real possibility that by this time next year the war in Ukraine should be over, commodity prices will have fallen, the economy should be growing and the roaring twenties that Rishi's tax rises and Putin's war looked to snuff out could be back on.

    And if so, Truss will deserve some credit for sticking to her guns. And for her role in helping Ukraine win the war.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,819
    Interesting thread from @TorstenBell as always… on the q of cutting taxes ultimately meaning difficult questions on public spending Liz Truss is explicitly denying that. She told us today she can borrow more, cut taxes AND keep public spending high. All by growing the economy. https://twitter.com/torstenbell/status/1572252267558113281
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,998

    Labour 42% (–)
    Conservative 34% (+4)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-4)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (-1)
    Reform UK 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 7 September.

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…
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    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Erdoğan to Putin: Return Crimea to ‘rightful owners’
    Turkish leader joins parade of leaders dealing blows to Putin.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/return-crimea-turkey-president-erdogan-putin-russia/

    Is it too much to hope that he might set an example and return Cyprus and the chunk he's taken of Syria to their rightful owners?
    Almost certainly, yes.

    I think you're rather missing the point. This isn't about moral authority (of which Erdogan possesses very little indeed) but about Putin's international isolation.
    I think many leaders have been isolated internationally. They need key allies not to desert them and they can brush the rest off. That is why the China relationship is so important. I think the people who support (or, more accurately, didn't condemn) him represent billions of people, don't they?
    Russia can't trust China - the latter covets the Far East and, as with Kazakhstan, is looking to supplant Russian influence.

    Hence, why I think this mobilisation is not meant for the Ukraine (if it happens). It is meant to shore up Russia in the Caucasus and the East. These are far more important to Russia strategically and, more to the point, you don't need to have fully trained troops there, just enough to enforce the peace and persuade the warring parties to desist (although, in the case of Azerbaijan, there is a question).
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    TimSTimS Posts: 10,149
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Q: Labour's policy to tax the energy companies [to subsidise bills] is supported by 68% of the public, according to polls. You’re prepared to be unpopular aren’t you?

    PM: “Yes, Yes I am.”
    https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1572234554458480643

    Oh dear, we’re back to “the energy companies” bogeyman from the media and Labour.

    How exactly does anyone propose the British government taxes Qatargas and Saudi Aramco, who are the companies doing well out of the crisis?

    The company that bills you for domestic energy is barely breaking even, in fact many of them have gone bust in the last two years.
    This is partly a case of media getting its facts confused. The Labour proposal would cover both energy companies and power generators, and the latter are the bigger sitting ducks for a windfall tax because a. they've not had one already, b. they are the companies making money in the UK from generating electricity that is at artificially high prices due to the way the elec price is tethered to gas.

    A WT on the power generators would apply to renewables and nuclear which is where a lot of the big windfall is landing.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,336
    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Absolute CAR-CRASH interview by @trussliz, wilting under smart questioning by @BethRigby, on her outdated trickle-down economics.

    Recorded, quite literally, while the US President she is about to meet, tweets this:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1572238135525838850 https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1572244208697905152/photo/1

    Truss is a faceless nonentity with a weird voice, ungainly posture and bizarre policies that seem to play directly into Labour's hands.

    She has so far scored the unique achievement of making Sir Keir Royale look both charismatic and sensible in comparison. An odd choice by the Tories.
    Remember that second place was Rishi Rich, the man who clearly didn’t know how to put petrol in a car, let alone know how much it cost, with as much empathy as the spreadsheets on which he lived his life.

    Third place was the woman who introduced a bill on gender identity that had been written by Stonewall, and she then denied in the campaign that it did what it said it did.

    Fourth place was a future star, but still very wet behind the ears having only been an MP for five years and aged 42.

    Is it any surprise that Mrs Truss was the winner?
    I nevertheless think Rishi wins the like to go for a pint with test. His speaking manner is easy and friendly. Moreso (although I'm sure it is more with her friends) than Truss.

    To me, Rishi, for all his where does the green wire go-ness, seems the more human.
    Sunak would have been a far better choice as PM, but perhaps not for a pint —- he’s a teetotaller
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,943

    I feel people have already made their decision on Truss, and it is not a positive one.

    The “growth plan” is going to be fascinating.
    I suspect it will fall apart quite quickly.

    I think Truss is being quite smart in going for growth and being serious rather than flippantly chasing polls.

    Everyone at the minute is making extremely negative forecasts of doom and gloom, but there's a very real possibility that by this time next year the war in Ukraine should be over, commodity prices will have fallen, the economy should be growing and the roaring twenties that Rishi's tax rises and Putin's war looked to snuff out could be back on.

    And if so, Truss will deserve some credit for sticking to her guns. And for her role in helping Ukraine win the war.
    She will claim credit, but would deserve next to none.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 48,119

    Leon said:


    The mad rat Putin is doing it. Declaration of war and full mobilisation

    Do you have a source inside the Kremlin?
    Yes. It’s called MY BRILLIANT INTUITIVE MIND

    Actually you don’t have to be brilliant at all to work out that Putin is going to escalate. As I’ve been saying all day it’s his only option. He’s cornered himself

    He may not declare total war but he’s going to up the stakes for sure

    A deeply menacing moment for the world
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    Driver said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Absolute CAR-CRASH interview by @trussliz, wilting under smart questioning by @BethRigby, on her outdated trickle-down economics.

    Recorded, quite literally, while the US President she is about to meet, tweets this:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1572238135525838850 https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1572244208697905152/photo/1

    Not remotely a 'car crash'. Nor is what Liz Truss is doing, 'trickle down' economics.

    Trickle down economics is cutting taxes only on the rich, eg cutting only the top rate of tax, because you believe that will grow the economy.

    Truss is proposing cutting taxes on everyone, via NI and Corporation Tax...
    Everyone pays corporation tax ?

    Truss is proposing to boost economic growth by borrowing (at a time of significantly increased government borrowing costs) by borrowing more to fund tax cuts.
    That's a very inefficient way of boosting growth.
    Yes, everyone pays corporation tax. Effectively, only individuals pay tax - if you raise corporation tax it reduces profits which means less being passed on to employees through wages and (for those companies that have them) shareholders (probably mostly pension funds) - or raised prices being charged to their customers.
    No, corporation tax is taxed on what is left after the employees have been paid.
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    DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    TimS said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Q: Labour's policy to tax the energy companies [to subsidise bills] is supported by 68% of the public, according to polls. You’re prepared to be unpopular aren’t you?

    PM: “Yes, Yes I am.”
    https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1572234554458480643

    Oh dear, we’re back to “the energy companies” bogeyman from the media and Labour.

    How exactly does anyone propose the British government taxes Qatargas and Saudi Aramco, who are the companies doing well out of the crisis?

    The company that bills you for domestic energy is barely breaking even, in fact many of them have gone bust in the last two years.
    This is partly a case of media getting its facts confused. The Labour proposal would cover both energy companies and power generators, and the latter are the bigger sitting ducks for a windfall tax because a. they've not had one already, b. they are the companies making money in the UK from generating electricity that is at artificially high prices due to the way the elec price is tethered to gas.

    A WT on the power generators would apply to renewables and nuclear which is where a lot of the big windfall is landing.
    Taxing renewables seems rather short sighted.
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    TimSTimS Posts: 10,149

    Re Russia. Just been reminded that if Putin made a formal declaration of war tonight then Belarus is treaty bound to support them

    Really? Suicidal for Luka.
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    MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    The data is showing that Sunak's super 70-year high taxes are strangling the economy at the same time as yielding a fraction of what he was expecting (the latest PSBR is tomorrow).

    This is before the Bank of England puts up interest rates to stem the inflation that has become rampant on Sunak's watch and under his policies. He and his chums at the treasury have also clearly been a bulwark against meaningful post brexit reform.

    Under Sunak we would be looking at not recession but depression, not higher indebtedness but bankruptcy.
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    Jonathan said:

    I feel people have already made their decision on Truss, and it is not a positive one.

    The “growth plan” is going to be fascinating.
    I suspect it will fall apart quite quickly.

    I think Truss is being quite smart in going for growth and being serious rather than flippantly chasing polls.

    Everyone at the minute is making extremely negative forecasts of doom and gloom, but there's a very real possibility that by this time next year the war in Ukraine should be over, commodity prices will have fallen, the economy should be growing and the roaring twenties that Rishi's tax rises and Putin's war looked to snuff out could be back on.

    And if so, Truss will deserve some credit for sticking to her guns. And for her role in helping Ukraine win the war.
    She will claim credit, but would deserve next to none.
    So it's all doom and gloom for which she deserves the blame, unless things go well in which case she doesn't deserve credit? 🤔
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,039
    Leon said:


    The mad rat Putin is doing it. Declaration of war and full mobilisation

    Is going to go nuclear?
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,998
    Redfield has Starmer getting a big boost to plus 4 job approval, Truss at plus 3
    Truss 4 points ahead best PM 40 36
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,534
    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Erdoğan to Putin: Return Crimea to ‘rightful owners’
    Turkish leader joins parade of leaders dealing blows to Putin.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/return-crimea-turkey-president-erdogan-putin-russia/

    Is it too much to hope that he might set an example and return Cyprus and the chunk he's taken of Syria to their rightful owners?
    Almost certainly, yes.

    I think you're rather missing the point. This isn't about moral authority (of which Erdogan possesses very little indeed) but about Putin's international isolation.
    I think many leaders have been isolated internationally. They need key allies not to desert them and they can brush the rest off. That is why the China relationship is so important. I think the people who support (or, more accurately, didn't condemn) him represent billions of people, don't they?
    Has China supplied a single artillery round to Russia ?
    I think the relationship is likely to grow frostier still if the nuclear talk continues.
    I'm sure Russia could use munitions from everywhere but that wasn't my point. China didn't condemn Russia at the UN, did they? I don't think so. Neither did India IIRC. And I don't think India sent them any tanks either. The issue being "international isolation" isn't complete without a great deal more of the world's population. Because surely you're not seeing this through the prism of the Anglo-American axis only.

    Hence the importance of the China relationship.
    Oh, in those terms I don't disagree.
    But it does seem that the relationship is getting significantly less friendly.

    My point is that attempts to escalate beyond a certain point risk losing the acquiescence of such states.
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    DriverDriver Posts: 4,522

    Driver said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Absolute CAR-CRASH interview by @trussliz, wilting under smart questioning by @BethRigby, on her outdated trickle-down economics.

    Recorded, quite literally, while the US President she is about to meet, tweets this:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1572238135525838850 https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1572244208697905152/photo/1

    Not remotely a 'car crash'. Nor is what Liz Truss is doing, 'trickle down' economics.

    Trickle down economics is cutting taxes only on the rich, eg cutting only the top rate of tax, because you believe that will grow the economy.

    Truss is proposing cutting taxes on everyone, via NI and Corporation Tax...
    Everyone pays corporation tax ?

    Truss is proposing to boost economic growth by borrowing (at a time of significantly increased government borrowing costs) by borrowing more to fund tax cuts.
    That's a very inefficient way of boosting growth.
    Yes, everyone pays corporation tax. Effectively, only individuals pay tax - if you raise corporation tax it reduces profits which means less being passed on to employees through wages and (for those companies that have them) shareholders (probably mostly pension funds) - or raised prices being charged to their customers.
    No, corporation tax is taxed on what is left after the employees have been paid.
    True, but spectacularly missing the point.
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    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461

    Sandpit said:

    The official Ukranian number is now 67% of known Russian tanks - 2,216 of 3,300 - lost in the conflict so far. Only seven months in.

    The vast majority of what are left, are Vietnam-era T-62 relics that have been in storage for half a century, firing North Korean ammo, and will be close to a waste of good NLAWs as far as the defenders are concerned.

    How does a ‘mobilisation’ help the situation, that Russia is unable to train and supply the troops it has already, let alone tens of thousands more, that are surely destined for the meat-grinder?

    I hope their wives and mothers know how pointless these deaths will be, and just how expendable Putin considers their husbands and sons, in persuit of his dreams of a 21st century Soviet Empire.

    There have been pictures of brand-new tanks coming off the production line, so production has restarted in at least a minimal way. But there are also rumours they are tanks to fill foreign export orders...
    Given how well their tanks have performed, if they are for export the buyer will be scanning the contract for get out clauses.
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,720

    Sandpit said:

    The official Ukranian number is now 67% of known Russian tanks - 2,216 of 3,300 - lost in the conflict so far. Only seven months in.

    The vast majority of what are left, are Vietnam-era T-62 relics that have been in storage for half a century, firing North Korean ammo, and will be close to a waste of good NLAWs as far as the defenders are concerned.

    How does a ‘mobilisation’ help the situation, that Russia is unable to train and supply the troops it has already, let alone tens of thousands more, that are surely destined for the meat-grinder?

    I hope their wives and mothers know how pointless these deaths will be, and just how expendable Putin considers their husbands and sons, in persuit of his dreams of a 21st century Soviet Empire.

    There have been pictures of brand-new tanks coming off the production line, so production has restarted in at least a minimal way. But there are also rumours they are tanks to fill foreign export orders...
    Also not inconceivable given what we know of Russian manufacturing that they are missing quite a lot of the bells and whistles that might make them effective.
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    TimSTimS Posts: 10,149


    Labour 42% (–)
    Conservative 34% (+4)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-4)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (-1)
    Reform UK 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 7 September.

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…

    LLG 57%. Consistent with other post-leadership but pre-London Bridge polls.
    Not seen anything with fieldwork after that point yet (or indeed after the energy price cap announcement?)
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,998
    TimS said:

    Re Russia. Just been reminded that if Putin made a formal declaration of war tonight then Belarus is treaty bound to support them

    Really? Suicidal for Luka.
    The agreements are there, i think a formal declaration triggers them
This discussion has been closed.