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Sleepless Knights of the Shires – politicalbetting.com
Sleepless Knights of the Shires – politicalbetting.com
Political maps of England, whether parliamentary or council, often resemble multi-coloured archipelagos in a sea of blue. While urban areas are battlegrounds contested by all the larger parties, rural areas tilt strongly towards the Conservatives.
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And a great header, with some interesting thoughts.
I think too that demographics are also changing. People have long swapped urban life for suburban or rural parts when they mature. There is a lot of new housing for such incomers.
They are bringing their politics with them, particularly on social issues. When towns like Oakham are having their own Pride events, social change has become real.
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1571255027775291392
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/16/f-16s-patriots-ukraine-negotiations-00057262
Summary: Ukraine want F-16, MQ-1C and MIM-104 but are no longer stridently asking on Snapchat. F-16 isn't a near term possibility because it would involve dicking over Slovakia, Bahrain and/or The Breakaway Province of China. MIM-104 is possible because it's viewed as a solely defensive system but it will have to be new builds off the Raytheon line paid for by ???. MQ-1C is being cockblocked by the US Army (article incorrectly states USAF) because they want to retire it so the last thing they need is a bravura performance from it in the SMO.
On the whole, the US response is a masterclass in cynical self-interest.
So frankly it would be amazing if the Tories weren’t suffering in the polls, everywhere.
Right now we need Labour and the Lib Dems to show the nation what they would do with 5 years in power. Give hope, and then the nation may just change tack significantly. Don’t forget, the Tories legitimately won the 2019 election. They have the right to be in power right now. Labour and/or the Lib Dems need to earn their right too.
In essence when it feels like the wrong approach the market is very good at ramming that perception home. With 18 months of economic contraction now forecast we're into the "government breaks the economy and sneeringly insists its dogma is right and the people's suffering can be ignored" scenario.
Thats not to say its gift week for the opposition parties. But even if all they show is empathy that would be a huge step forward. Brexit's reception in rural shires was mentioned in the piece, and I have seen here in Banff and Buchan what happens when the MP says "everything is marvellous" and the farming and fishing voters say "no it isn't and why aren't you listening to us"?
I do not understand the percentages of seats held. 4 out of 15 is 27% - 6 out of 21 is 29%. The Conservatives lost 26 seat out of 36 defended - May 2023 is going to be bloodbath for the Conservatives.
For both practical and political reasons.
For example:
… There is also a prioritization problem: existing NATO allies want these systems too. As more Eastern European countries ditch their older Russian or even Soviet-era aircraft, they’re looking to the U.S. to begin selling or financing F-16s for their own defense. Already, the delivery of 14 F-16s to Slovakia has been delayed a year — to 2024 — due to supply chain issues, and Taiwan remains high on the priority list for the jets and their spare parts.
Some of these more complex systems — including the F-16s slated for retirement by the U.S. Air Force — “are likely to arrive after this conflict is over,” said a congressional staffer with knowledge of the discussions.
As for the request for Patriot missile batteries, the U.S. has agreed to finance the sale of the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System, or NASAMS, for Ukraine. Officials warn that Ukraine’s capacity to train on and put to use both systems at once would be limited, at best…
Is that “cynical self-interest”, or practical reality ? It’s not entirely clear cut.
As I’ve noted previously, Poland was anxious to purchase F-16s, and the US keen to sell them. Supply constraints have led Poland to sound several billion dollars on the Korean FA-50 instead, as deliveries can me made almost straight away.
NASAMS isn’t Patriot, but it’s a pretty capable system (assuming they get the AMRAAM version), again available now, and at least a couple of batteries financed by the US are already being delivered.
As for the Grey Eagle, the Ukraine airforce also publicly lobbied against it, too, so it’s little wonder that ran into the sand.
FWIW, and I’m not pretending any particular expertise, so you can FO with the Futon Fusiliers stuff, it seems to me that the “cynical self-interest” is more a plain desire to avoid nuclear war with Russia.
You can certainly argue that Biden has been overly hesitant in the rate of weapon supplies (and I have), but you have to acknowledge both that consideration, and the fact that he’s governing with an extremely fragile majority in Congress.
Against that you have to give serious credit for marshalling a coordinated NATO response, and consistent strong advocacy and support for Ukraine from before Putin’s gamble kicked off, the face of scepticism from many at the time.
Self- interest, absolutely.
But how many were arguing that back in February ?
https://youtu.be/iLHMrnRX4Io
In unrelated news, the FBI are investigating Truss's Downing Street chief of staff for an election bribe in Puerto Rico.
https://twitter.com/implausibleblog/status/1571263352147509249
Truss’s first big diplomatic meeting cancelled by Biden https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/18/prime-minister-trusss-first-big-diplomatic-meeting-cancelled-joe-biden?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1663477969
Be careful what you wish for.
Point 4. in particular had not occurred to me but sounds vey plausible.
https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/the-average-polish-family-will-be-better-off-than-a-uk-household-by-end-of-the-decade-335338/
https://twitter.com/VoldemortessaLJ/status/1571314811853570048
And yet, the opportunities presented far outweigh these for the majority. Its yet another issue where the Tories are the problem without even knowing the question.
I’m not convinced.
Also, they are s-l-o-w and easy to kill in a turning fight so the Su-30/Archer combo would have them for breakfast. (If RuAF don't mysteriously have their phones turned off when called to action.)
Mine was rather that freedom of movement might have been far less of a issue for us had we stayed in the EU. Different perspectives.
What’s certainly true is that much of Europe’s new industrial production (battery and EV plants, for example) is being built in the former Soviet satellites.
Here, not so much.
A year or so ago I read a fantastic article about working from home in some American magazine... The Atlantic, maybe? I don't think it was Forbes.
Anyway, it actually predated (or much of the info did) the pandemic. One major US firm had adopted the measure and had few in-office days, and found that (with support) this led to a significant improvement. However, management were less keen (the kudos of being the manager was diminished) and changes at the top saw the support withdrawn and then a gradual shift back towards working in the office, which saw a consequent decline.
Working from home is not for every business, nor for every individual, but it does offer a lot for many people. Any instinctive, broad brush "This is wonderful/appalling" approach is too simplistic.
Also a fitting metaphor for the current Tory party reaching the next election...
You could argue I could close the door at work, but part of my role is to support others, so I don’t like too.
As you say, it shouldn’t be polarised. Take the good points of both options.
That's over half of the world's population.
That is a staggering indictment of the last 15 years, both the tail-end of New Labour failing to properly socially rebalance after the crash, and then 12 years of first the Coalition, Osborne's particular form of austerity, the Tories governing on their own, and then Brexit.
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1571405919358943232
Boris Johnson, already the forgotten PM @indypremium @IndyVoices https://www.independent.co.uk/independentpremium/editors-letters/boris-johnson-forgotten-prime-minister-b2169395.html
Liz Truss warned of mass bankruptcies if firms left in limbo over energy bills https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/17/liz-truss-warned-of-mass-bankruptcies-if-firms-left-in-limbo-over-energy-bills?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Tory MPs fear Liz Truss’s policies will create a ‘complete open goal’ for Labour https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/18/liz-truss-policies-tory-mps-open-goal-labour?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1663481536
Short version: I don’t think the Truss-Kwarteng cunning plan is going to work https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/keir-starmer-liz-truss-labour-winning-b2169370.html https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1571178798162317312/photo/1
Where's Mr Dynamo?
Not her fault, but she became out-of-date two days into the job. If you don’t believe me, just imagine if Ben Wallace we’re leader now.
Eventually, and probably soon, drones wil replace them, but not yet.
The Heil, the Express, GBeebies - they're all going to go all-in backing Truss despite the growing economic damage which even they won't be able to hide. Indeed, the only reason we will suffer this economic damage is because people like me didn't believe in Trussnomics strongly enough, thus repeating our treachery in failing to Believe in Brexit properly.
I'm not a fan of either, but you can't blame her ... yet.
But I'd park a bunch of the in Poland on a runway, just in case. They'd stop any thought of anther attempt on Kyiv through Belarus, for instance.
I wonder if the results from the BEIS Imperial measurements survey will ever be published, given how widely it has been discredited?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/18/metric-system-imperial-measures-consultation-brexit
Is it possible to find out how much pursuing this off-manifesto whim cost, through a FoI request?
That ship has sailed, the exodus has already happened.
I meet a lot of Eastern Europeans in my work. The ones I see arrived here working on waste picking lines for minimum wage, some have been promoted to supervisory and managerial roles and their future lies here. The less ambitious ones in many cases left after Brexit. The same was true of the farming and hospitality industries. As a nation we told them they were no longer required (they were bunging up our health and education systems with their snot-faced children, and we no longer cared for their tax pounds) and they left.
There was some excitement on these pages that now we could concentrate on post-Brexit British jobs for British people. In the industry I work in the English and the Welsh workers couldn't cut it. Long hours, unpleasant working conditions, hard, back breaking work, and poor pay, no thank you!
My customers are now looking to the Indian subcontinent, and with some success it has to be said
I wonder what the meeting cancellation is about. I suppose there's an outside chance it's Biden 'punishing' Truss. Seems likelier it's a Biden health issue.
The coronation ?
I suspect the CoL crisis may fill the news a bit before that.
The coronation will be next summer as Liz Truss will be hoping that the nation will be as a consequence in a good mood, and therefore likely to support the Conservatives in the general election she plans for the autumn.
Incidentally, as many will know I dictate this.
All "PB-ers" in the opening sentence was translated as "all the beers"!
And given the costs firms currently swallow to be based in London, the bribe to disperse will have to be huge.
Why was he working for millionaire Venezuelan — foreign national — in the US?
Did he know his client was a long time fugitive from his home country?
Why did he work w/disgraced ex-FBI agent convicted of crimes in the role?
https://twitter.com/gabriel_pogrund/status/1571183835609534466
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-62943952
It’s impressive journalism because it manages to go the whole length of the article without mentioning that it’s Hindi v Muslim rioting. It does mention the
“India V Pakistan” cricket match, so the casual reader might think people are unhappy about the LBW rule
Presumably this is deliberate so as to “not inflame tensions” but it looks ridiculous and devious
Both the standfirst, and first sentence in the article, say it has been rescheduled (for 2 days later at the UN).
I get that Twitter isn't Britain but I don't see much evidence of that here either let alone Twitter etc
In my more despairing moments I think the Tories will manage to scrape in by peddling more unicorns and kulturkampf.
Incidentally, well done to HYUFD and CR for doing the whole queue thing. Personally I wouldn’t have done it for all the tea in China. I think I would’ve grudgingly agreed to queue for 10 mins max but that would be my limit. But I have to respect that strength of belief, even if it leaves me cold personally.
I suspect I’ll watch the shenanigans tomorrow. But then I might not. I might well think bollocks to it all. There’s the possibility of going down the boozer instead, so I might end up doing that.
Interesting header. It’s like Newton’s Third Law of Motion is finally imposing itself post-Brexit. We’re gradually seeing the real world implications of the whole thing manifesting themselves in lots of different ways. And it doesn’t seem to be popular.
If we have a challenge with internecine strife in Leicester between two different religious communities then let's discuss it openly, and discuss how we can resolve it.
The reporting that this is a snub to Truss is pure politics and it seems perfect sense to delay it by 3 days
It's a different world for some!
A PM like Wallace (or even Mourdant) who would have looked dignified with a few medals on their chest and able to help reassure the nation through a difficult period, might have hit the spot and been unassailable. Truss is not that, despite her other strengths.
Right.
A moral dilemma indeed
Stop them voting?
Of the four possible explanations James suggests for the shift he identified, I think we can discount 3 (it's unusual for there to be much further scope for tactical anti-Tory voting in rural seats), and 4 (it's too soon for demographic change caused by WFH to be having such a big effect.
On 1, Brexit: it's plausible, but I'm not sure there's much evidence for it, at least to the extent required to be a major factor.
So I think explanation 2 is the most likely. Of course Brexit is part of, and the major cause, of the Conservative Party losing its marbles, and alienating a large chunk of its traditional support.
Will @ITV do the right thing and pull Holly and Phil from #ThisMorning? No reason why other presenters like Rylan or Alison couldn't fill in. Nobody wants to see these #queuejumpers right now
And...
https://twitter.com/JoanneN93443664/status/1571173651990331392
Phil an Holly should never be seen on TV ever again thay think thay are better than the British public, DISGRACEFUL.
Citation required.....
Sometimes the radicals are right and you need to change direction. The problem with the Truss's anbd Corbyn's of the world is that they are committed to a radical approach regardless of evidence, guided by ideology only (I base this not so much on Truss's past actions, but on how her boosters have been promoting her since the leadership contest).
Unaffordable house prices could help this trend too.
It is perfect for how the press operates these days.
In which they translate 'interviewed as a witness' in their article into "involved in an alleged conspiracy" in the couple of paras the public can see.
Suleman Nagdi, of the Leicester-based Federation of Muslim Organisations told the BBC: "What we have seen on the streets is very alarming.
"There have been problems in the community since the India and Pakistan cricket match and while that game often sparks gatherings they have not in the past turned this ugly.
"We need calm - the disorder has to stop and it has to stop now. There are some very dissatisfied young men who have been causing havoc.
"We need to get the message out that this must end and try to do this through parents and grand parents talking to their sons."
Sanjiv Patel, who represents Hindu and Jain temples across Leicester, said he was deeply saddened and shocked by Saturday night's disorder.