Punters give Johnson a 5.4% chance of being PM at next election – politicalbetting.com
One thing that Boris Johnson has made absolutely clear is that he has hopes of some future in British politics. He continues to be a contributor to big discussions in the Commons and will go on getting a lot of attention from the news media.
I don't see value here (at least, not for the kind of money I'd be willing to risk to lay). I might lay this at shorter odds if LT is sinking and the markets get overexcited about BJ's second coming.
Now she has made some good moves on cost of living and acted like a stateswoman after the Queen's death.
However the decision of Truss and Kwarteng to end the cap on bankers' bonuses at a time of cost of living crisis and with a big deficit is politically tin eared even if economically there is the argument it will attract talent to the City and boost revenues longer term. It might go down well in the City of London and Home counties but it will not help Truss at all to retain the redwall. It is a further sign her government will be a more economically libertarian one than Boris' was
There is a much bigger range of ages than I had thought. Clearly many of these people would otherwise be at work.
Some people bow, or curtsy, some cross themselves. Most do little more than pause and nod, almost imperceptibly. Even after having queues for miles and hours, the British are not a demonstrative bunch. I quite liked the man, about my age, dressed in a suit who just mouthed the words 'Thank you'.
The monarchy wasn't a big thing for me. But I am pleased for these people that they have had an opportunity to express how big a thing it was for them.
But how do they feel afterwards? The camera only shows very briefly the expressions on people as they leave, and it is difficult to read too much into facial expressions at moments like this anyway. Are they pleased they made the effort, I wonder?
Also, if you ask Google about 'the queue', it knows what you mean. You don't have to add any explanation.
Terrible, terrible bet on both sides of the equation.
Anyone who backs Johnson to be PM at the next election is just throwing their money away. He won't be.
Anyone who backs Johnson not to be PM two years from now, for just a 5% return, when inflation is running at 10% per annum is just devaluing their own money and giving a negative real interest loan to Smarkets traders.
Is there anyone in this cabinet who have read UKs political and economic history of the 1960s and 70s
Is Case still there?
Not big stakes, and I’m not loading up more at the current price because his intentions aren’t clear and I dislike tying up too much money on long term markets, especially with a small, young company like smarkets and especially especially with inflation at 10%.
Two strangers became, I'm pretty sure, a couple (they certainly swapped numbers). I got chatting to an elderly Welsh guy who, it turned out, went to school with one of my former bosses (professor, now dead). There was a weird noise every few minutes for about half an hour, which turned out to be santiser dispenser hidden behind a lady sitting on a chair (she ended up with a coat covered down the back in hand sanitiser). We swapped tales of waits, then and in the past. We compared notes on the biscuits available.
Comparatively speaking of course. If it does lose many seats, then that suggests a wipe out at the next general election!
The Labour Party are loving the fact Boris is out of the way.
Truss is going nowhere before the Coronation. The biggest world spectacle in decades, not a chance the Tories put it all at risk by infighting. After that we are in the home straight. Shes leader at the next election. This 'it will all go tits up because we have been saying it will' is no basis for betting or likelihood. Mays locals are, perhaps fortunately for her, against a dreadful 2019 set.
No Boris (no cry).
She gets to relaunch next week with whatever bells and whistles she planned, she gets to hobble conference season 'to show we are working hard' etc.
Over to the electorate/poll respondants to judge
It’s a reassurance to many of us in UK that no matter how silly and green at the edges our governments are, at least the experience of our Civil Service is still running the country.
Kemi is an interesting one. Had the tories picked her, by the time of the election she could have neutralised her big negative (inexperience) and gone on to give labour a complete pounding, holding onto most of the red wall.
Or she might have been shit. We’ll never find out.
More film of the omen and portent last night ((C) MoonRabbit).
If X = the situation politically, socially, mentally etc until 6.30PM Thursday 8 Sept 2022 and
Y = everything on hold for national mourning, extraordinary scenes of queues, tributes etc, outpourings of emotion and feeling, clear 'instant' changes of opinion over, for example, KC3
We would be very foolish to assume after Y we return to X
What is Z?
"Tory politicians have backed a campaign which has been launched to give the late Queen the title of 'Elizabeth the Faithful' because 'the Great' is rather common and has been used by despots and conquerors."
If you cannot see the difference there you might as well give up.
In 1953 the prime ministerial declaration that "You've never had it so good" may have lain a few years in the future, but by that year there was already a general atmosphere of progress in the country, and also there was the spread of TV (which personally I wouldn't call progress of any kind, but many others would).
This time, what is there? What will they do? Give every child in the country a bag of sweets with a picture of the "king and queen consort" on the front, the cost to be added to their "student loan" when they reach 18?
There could easily be prolonged widespread power cuts this winter, and rampant inflation not just of domestic energy, and who knows what will happen in the war? What are the chances of another lockdown? Or of an "overwhelming" of the NHS?
For that matter, who can be sure that the mentally and emotionally retarded gullible syphilitic idiot of a "God-sent" bully on the throne will still have his a*se on it in a few months' time?
Has Harry agreed not to bring his book out? :-)
I'm not sure it's a good trade even then, and your inflation point is not an unreasonable one. But people aren't in reality waiting for a small return in 2024 but much sooner.
Pre Reformation both England and Scotland were majority Roman Catholic. The Scottish Episcopal Church actually started as early as 1582 just over 20 years after the Church of Scotland was founded to preserve bishops
And why stop using it? Some sort of Grammar Hitler stuff regardless that the removal of the use of it can cause utter confusion. After all it is not as though clarity is important in the NHS.
What is wrong with her?
And you repeat the myth that Osborne flatlined the recovery. Don't you realise the UK in the 2010s grew faster than the Eurozone did, both in nominal terms and in per capita terms. "Despite Brexit" supposedly harming the UK during that decade.
If Brexit and Osborne "flatlined" or harmed the UK, then how come the UK grew faster than the Eurozone or the rest of the EU? Just how much faster than them would we have grown in your eyes were it not for Osborne or Brexit, and why?
Just leave it.
This is a very good article on Sky news site and I am posting a link to it but for those who blame the UK's woes on Brexit this is far more nuanced and credible
Sam Tombs, Chief UK Economist at economic research consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics, says this is evidence of a small Brexit impact.
Mr Tombs also said that "the UK's relatively high inflation rate largely is a consequence of government policies to date."
"The government has helped households cope with higher energy prices by giving them grants - which don't reduce consumer prices - rather than directly controlling energy prices as many other governments in Europe have done."
"This will change from October, now the government has put in place the £2,500 price cap, so I doubt Britain will be an outlier next year."
Mr McWilliams agreed that the Brexit impact is likely small.
"Immigration post-Brexit has been roughly the same as it was before, although the mix is different. If you look at the things that have gone up in price it doesn't follow that Brexit is the issue - Brexit doesn't affect energy prices or the price of wheat.
"There could be a bit of an effect, but it's hard to see good evidence for it and it's not the most obvious factor."
I and the colleagues I have trained will be inundated with work. That drama series I'm writing will go on and on and on.... A trickle-down of wealth to Cyclefree and friends. What could be better than that!
Become a financial investigator, folks. You'll never be out of work.
Shame that everyone else will be.
The two churches have different Reformations, different histories, different Williamite settlements.
Truss has just 2 years to become electable back to government and if you think the red wall voters will see any change in that timeframe then you at not thinking it through
It may well be the right thing to do, but the optics are dreadful
No way was that object as small as a cricket ball.
Certain people will hate the Tories and think they are on the side of bankers/business etc no matter what they do.
Certain people will like the Tories and be ultra loyal to them no matter what they do.
Most people just want good governance. Stop worrying whether every single thing is good or bad optics, and start thinking about what is actually good for the country. Making some unpopular decisions, if they are the right thing to do, is not the end of the world or a bad thing for any responsible government to be doing.
If so, let me know...
Euro area growth was low because of their sovereign debt crisis and because they followed similar austerity policies to us, and because they had lower population growth.
This of course led to a further frission of excitement, seeing your new friends slowly disappear from the first waiting room, only to be reunited with them when you, too, made it to the second waiting room. (Actually, partly due to being reunited, perhaps, the second waiting room was far more social than the first.)
Apart from not having the King as its SG there is little difference between the SEC and Church of England in service style or structure
Pro-growth policies are good now because the deficit was brought under control prior to the crash, unlike in Brown's time, and so we're in a much better fiscal position than we were then.
The UK grew faster than Europe on a per capita basis too, again despite "austerity" and "Brexit" being both accused of "flatlining" growth. We had our own sovereign debt crisis caused by Brown's borrowing too, which is why Osborne needed to clean up Brown's mess.
Nice prelim graphic of the trajectory of the portent. No Harriers reported.
President Joe Biden says a tentative railway labor agreement has been reached, averting a strike that could've damaged the economy before the midterms.
He went through passport control and then it was my turn. The grim faced officer (who must have seen us chatting) asked me if I was visiting on my own. I said yes. She replied: "Are you sure?" (I am not joking.)
I was so tempted to reply that the wait had been so bloody long that I had had time to meet someone, get to know them, have an affair and break up with them. But thought better of it.
It would be rather sweet if a few romances came out of the queue for HMQ.
And the SEC and C of E use different prayer books.
We went to a Church of Ireland service last week which was virtually identical to our Church of England services except absent mention of the monarch, even if prayers for the late Queen at the end.
It is nothing like the UK and US which are completely separate countries
Last man standing baked in
Here’s the video that led to the resignation of the German navy chief
Former commanding general of US forces in Europe:
Stunningly poor analysis of Russian capabilities that unfortunately reflects much of the German “elite” thinking.
Finland alone would crush Russian forces. Lithuania/Poland would smother Kaliningrad in a week. Russian Navy hiding behind Crimea even though Ukraine has no Navy.