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Punters give Johnson a 5.4% chance of being PM at next election – politicalbetting.com

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  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,582
    ...and in other CoL crisis news the Royal Yacht HMS Boris Johnson is going ahead despite disinterest from King Charles 3.

    (The Times)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,281

    Interesting that @HYUFD describes Johnson as "the party's most successful leader since Thatcher". This is a totally ridiculous proposition. He bases "most successful" solely on his election victory over Jeremy fecking Corbyn.

    Johnson was responsible for one of the biggest fissures in the Tory Party since the Corn Laws. He became an international laughing stock. He thoroughly trashed the Conservative Party's reputation for sensible governance and found himself heaved out of No10 after only 3 years for dishonesty. Other than TMay you have to go back to 1827 to find a PM with a shorter tenure. He was hopeless. A bad joke. A man totally unfit for office. He was not successful, except in his ability to trounce the most ludicrous LoTO ever to have held that role, and to gull those foolish enough like @HYUFD into thinking he was appropriate to be Party leader and PM.
    He also delivered Brexit and the vaccines on his watch and of course
    Theresa was sadly unable to defeat Corbyn.

    Once we have gone through the Tory leaderships of Truss, Badenoch, Braverman and Rees Mogg even you might miss Boris!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,056
    ydoethur said:

    Not often you meet poor bankers. You have rich ones, very rich ones and filthy rich ones.
    So willing to pay taxes though. Certainly there hasnt been decades of development of methods of tax avoidance, all totally necessary and reasonable and not a way for rich folks to get away with things poor people can't.

    I am so looking forward to Jacob Rees Mogg declaring the end to the cap on bankers' bonuses as a big Brexit benefit and explaining why making the very rich even richer benefits everyone. It will be spectacular.

    Something something politics of envy, British success story something constitutional outrage, large bowl of porridge, something Brexit.

  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,137
    edited September 2022
    Pro_Rata said:

    You need a lot of unincreased standing
    charge to turn around 40% to 25% (ok, looked up the current average, it is actually £1971 to £2500, so around 27%).

    Combined standing charges around £250 per year. So for that 40% unit price is on £1700 ish, and standing charges would literally have to halve to bring the overall back down.

    Is that what is happening?
    According to Ofgem the current cap is 28p for electricity and 7p for Gas.

    28p to 34p is an increase of 21.4%

    It also seems, according to Ofgem, that standing charges are effectively frozen and not going up.

    So the 27% increase seems to be roughly from a doubling in the unit price of Gas, a roughly 21% increase in the unit price in Electricity, but no increase in the Standing Charge.

    Which seems plausible to average out at about £2500 but it would vary heavily depending upon how much Gas you use.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,081

    Hundreds of them according to the Beeb. And 500 loos and provision for hot drinks. And the means to leave the Queue for food and rest breaks and return through a system of wristbands. The British sure do know how to queue.

    If you are given a wristband that guarantees your position, and you can leave and return at will to that position, the queue itself is redundant.

    Issue people wristbands in order at some place, and have a notice at Westminster Hall "now serving bands 18,378 to 18,465" and so on
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,484

    Like HY and unlike Leon, I am a big traditionalist at heart - so instead of calling it a UFO I am calling it a dragon. They come from out the void and hide underneath the hill because before banks everyone used to bury their wealth and treasure and dragons love treasure.

    The only other explanation is the importance of portents - if you are going to tell the bee’s the master is dead (just smacks of politeness to me but different if you truly superstitious) then what about signs in the sky, leaky pens - OMG 🫣
    The Guardian are reporting it as being a Musk StarLink satellite : https://www.theguardian.com/science/2022/sep/15/incredible-fireball-crosses-sky-over-scotland-and-northern-ireland
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,281
    Carnyx said:

    Dunno about the numbers, but they are certainly in different heavenly hosts as fiar as discipline is concerned:

    "It is [...] a common fault to refer to the Episcopal Church as the ‘English’ Church, whereas the Scottish Episcopal Church is entirely independent from the Church of England in its government, liturgies, and in the election of its bishops etc. it is, however, in full communion with the Church of England, as is the Church in Wales, the Church of Ireland and all the other members of the Anglican Communion (such as the Anglican Church in Japan or in Southern Africa)."

    "From 1690, therefore, the Bishops and those who supported them, were forced out of the Church of Scotland: thus was the Scottish Episcopal Church born, and it has continued as a separate body ever since."

    https://dcdchurches.org.uk/the-origins-of-the-scottish-episcopal-church/
    If I was Scottish I would be SEP, we are all part of one Anglican communion whatever our minor differences
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,081

    ...and in other CoL crisis news the Royal Yacht HMS Boris Johnson is going ahead despite disinterest from King Charles 3.

    (The Times)

    Having seen some footage recently of HMQ and Britannia, and I more in favour of a new Royal Yacht than previously, especially since the FLSOJ will have no part in it
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,160
    AlistairM said:

    The question which needs to be answered is why hasn't Putin mobilised already? He definitely seems to be losing.

    1. Will his population stand for it? Most of them, particularly those in Moscow, just want to carry on ignoring Ukraine. If they mobilise this will no longer be possible. Does it lead to serious unrest?

    2. Does Putin think they are winning? Is it possible that no one is brave enough to tell him the truth? Or if as the early Twitter threads indicated is there lying from the bottom to the top so no one knows what is really going on?

    For me this is the question that is the most puzzling. If he won't mobilise then how could he justify nukes as they would only be needed in a war and not a "special military operation".

    I think the escalation sequence would be...

    1. Iran/Iraq style "War of the Cities"
    2. Full mobilisation chucking all of the Far East aviation units into the fray
    3. Threaten some symbolic Ukrainian military target like the Naval HQ in Odessa with a nuke
    4. Referendum on AV
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968

    Of course not - her comments were those of any successor to their predecessor
    Whaaaaaaaaat? 🥹

    You challenged HY with “ until you condemn Johnson then you are part of his toxic legacy” but Truss doesn’t have to distance herself from the toxic legacy? If anything she said more than really had to didn’t she?
  • The UK deficit is set to grow considerably under Truss, who appears to believe in trickle-down economics, something known not to work. So, deficit up, but no significant improvement in growth.

    Amused by your claim that trickle-down economics is "known not to work", it absolutely does work.

    Cutting taxes in both the UK and the USA in the 80s led to significant growth and eventual budget surpluses in the 90s.

    That the growth and surplus such tax cutting brought about was subsequently pissed away, is not a problem with "trickle down economics".
  • Osborne's austerity was a mistake as even the current vintage of Tories now acknowledge. The problem is that they have pivoted to pro-growth fiscal policies at precisely the wrong moment, with inflation out of control, and so they will only succeed in pushing up inflation and interest rates.
    Euro area growth was low because of their sovereign debt crisis and because they followed similar austerity policies to us, and because they had lower population growth.
    Inflation has peaked … it’s under control…
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613
    HYUFD said:

    If I was Scottish I would be SEP, we are all part of one Anglican communion whatever our minor differences
    But if you were Scottish you wouldn't be in the C of E. You see?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,216
    .
    Dura_Ace said:

    It was presented as certainty not opinion. What are these reliable sources that are guaranteeing Russian forces will disobey orders to use nuclear weapons?
    There aren't any.
    I've seen guesstimates (and they are more guesses than estimates) from various military types (eg RUSI) that there's perhaps a 25% likelihood of Putin resorting to tactical nukes.

    The only measure of agreement is that it's less likely to happen than it is to happen.

    Make if that what you will.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613
    HYUFD said:

    He also delivered Brexit and the vaccines on his watch and of course
    Theresa was sadly unable to defeat Corbyn.

    Once we have gone through the Tory leaderships of Truss, Badenoch, Braverman and Rees Mogg even you might miss Boris!
    Mr Johnson is a medical immunologist?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    edited September 2022

    The UK deficit is set to grow considerably under Truss, who appears to believe in trickle-down economics, something known not to work. So, deficit up, but no significant improvement in growth.

    Your position of saying both Osborne and Truss are right does need an explanation Barty?

    Fiscal control on the one hand versus abandoning fiscal control for a dash for growth on the other will sound like chalk and cheese to us non economic experts, until you explain this one to us.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399

    Amused by your claim that trickle-down economics is "known not to work", it absolutely does work.

    Cutting taxes in both the UK and the USA in the 80s led to significant growth and eventual budget surpluses in the 90s.

    That the growth and surplus such tax cutting brought about was subsequently pissed away, is not a problem with "trickle down economics".
    Other factors might have been in play....
  • Your position of saying both Osborne and Truss are right does need an explanation Barty?

    Fiscal control on the one hand versus abandoning fiscal control for a dash for growth on the other will sound like chalk and cheese to us non economic, experts until you explain this one to us.
    Different stages of the economic cycle.

    Brown's deficit spending blew the budget up pre-crash, taking us from a budget surplus to a maxed out deficit before the recession even hit us.

    Pre-recession the budget deficit shrank every single year for a decade under the Tories.

    A dash for growth now is a viable option as Osborne fixed the roof while the sun was shining. Brown didn't.
  • On the radio I heard an interesting tip for @Casino_Royale or anyone else going into the queen queue, especially at night. Take a pack or to of small individually-wrapped chocolates, such as Heroes or eclairs. Eat them slowly over the night to keep your energy up, and offer some to the volunteers along the route.

    It hadn't occurred to me that there would be volunteers on the route, but it makes sense.

    Wow - such groundbreaking , monumental advice from the Radio there - was it Cadburys FM?
  • More interestingly you don’t get your wristband until the London Eye

    Has the Queue grown… is it a preQueue? Or a queue to join the Queue?

    We should be told!
    Get a wristband, four hours in the pub, come back when your place is near the front.

    Is that how it works?
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,849
    edited September 2022

    Get a wristband, four hours in the pub, come back when your place is near the front.

    Is that how it works?
    the wristbands only start at the London Eye so near the end . Watching it for an hour today I did see some peopel who obviously had a Disney style Fast Pass but did not recognize them
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,322
    Carnyx said:

    Mr Johnson is a medical immunologist?
    This is a bit divisive. Did Churchill win the second world war (from a British perspective - I know USSR/USA etc)? Yes. Did he fight in Normandy, the Ardennes, Crossing of the Rhine, in a Lancaster over Berlin? No (although he tried to get to Normandy...)

    Did Johnson head into the lab, roll up his sleeves and say 'right, we've got the spike sequence, its time to see if mRNA vaccines work...'? Of course not. Did he appoint the right people, let them spend what was needed and keep out of the way? Yes he did.

    It is fair to give him credit for things done well just as it is fair to blame for the things that went wrong. Don't let hatred or disdain for Johnson cloud that. There is enough to mock already.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968

    Different stages of the economic cycle.

    Brown's deficit spending blew the budget up pre-crash, taking us from a budget surplus to a maxed out deficit before the recession even hit us.

    Pre-recession the budget deficit shrank every single year for a decade under the Tories.

    A dash for growth now is a viable option as Osborne fixed the roof while the sun was shining. Brown didn't.
    So in this analogy, what exactly is “the roof”?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,644

    Amused by your claim that trickle-down economics is "known not to work", it absolutely does work.

    Cutting taxes in both the UK and the USA in the 80s led to significant growth and eventual budget surpluses in the 90s.

    That the growth and surplus such tax cutting brought about was subsequently pissed away, is not a problem with "trickle down economics".
    There are other definitions of "ork" - usually, trickle down is literally understood by most to mean that eventually the poor benefit.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,160
    Scott_xP said:

    Having seen some footage recently of HMQ and Britannia, and I more in favour of a new Royal Yacht than previously, especially since the FLSOJ will have no part in it
    Meanwhile the FOC date for F-35B has been pushed to the right by two years by the MoD to save money. The flegship might me more defensible if it didn't have to come out of the defence budget.

    It is politically impossible to cancel it while the country is in the grip of ultra nationalist fleg bukkake. Starmer will have to quietly shelve it in a few years time under the guise of "pausing to review options about the onboard provision of pens" or similar bollocks.
  • eek said:

    Other factors might have been in play....
    Perhaps, but regardless the last time we had substantial economic growth and a budget surplus was when we were following the policies that @bondegezou now claims is "known not to work".

    Abandoning those policies and following decades of Brownian taxing and spending has resulted in stagnation, not growth.

    Reverting back to the policies that did work is not going back to something known not to work. Even if you think other factors were in play, its a bit rich to say a reversion back to your last stable state is a bad idea.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613

    I'm afraid I have to agree with HYUFD here. You are the one who is confusing England and the United Kingdom. The Anglican Communion is the Anglican Church and members of any of the churches in the Anglican Communion, including the SEC, are Anglicans (although they are also referred to as Episcopalians in some countries). The Church of England is an Anglican church. It is not the Anglican church. The SEC is also an Anglican church, hence its website being scotland.anglican.org.
    You've touched on, but also missed the problem of, the key distinction between "the Anglican church", which by default and indeed your own example is the C of E, and "an Anglican church" which you say is the wording for a member of the Anglican communion - much as we'd say 'a Commonwealth country".

    The problem was that HYUFD claimed that "The SEC is the Anglican church". That can only be interpreted as meaning that it was integral with the C of E. If he would only admit he makes mistakes instead of trying to justify them ...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,081
    Dura_Ace said:

    It is politically impossible to cancel it while the country is in the grip of ultra nationalist fleg bukkake. Starmer will have to quietly shelve it in a few years time under the guise of "pausing to review options about the onboard provision of pens" or similar bollocks.

    Just give the contract to Ferguson...
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,322

    Get a wristband, four hours in the pub, come back when your place is near the front.

    Is that how it works?
    Possibly, but only an idiot would miss out on the best bit, which is the queue itself, not the minute in Westminster Hall...
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,160

    So in this analogy, what exactly is “the roof”?
    It's Westminster slang for Shappsie's wig.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,322

    So in this analogy, what exactly is “the roof”?
    The roof ought to be infrastructure and training/upskilling of the population. Creating the environment for business to thrive.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,137
    edited September 2022

    So in this analogy, what exactly is “the roof”?
    The deficit.

    It traditionally goes up during and immediately after a recession due to countercyclical factors, while it comes down in the years of growth. Brown instead took us from budget surplus to maxed out deficit pre-crash meaning we were terribly exposed when the inevitable crash inevitably happened.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,216
    kjh said:

    How the hell do you know? The bright light you see from most meteors you see crossing the sky at night are not much bigger than a grain of sand. I tend to go with the expert unless they say something obviously stupid.
    Well it was bigger than a grain of sand - anything that small decelerates much more quickly, or completely burns up, so doesn't leave a lengthy trail like this one did.

    With enough footage from different know locations it would be possible to work out speed and deceleration, but none of us have that data (and most including me wouldn't have a clue what to do with it).
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968

    This is a bit divisive. Did Churchill win the second world war (from a British perspective - I know USSR/USA etc)? Yes. Did he fight in Normandy, the Ardennes, Crossing of the Rhine, in a Lancaster over Berlin? No (although he tried to get to Normandy...)

    Did Johnson head into the lab, roll up his sleeves and say 'right, we've got the spike sequence, its time to see if mRNA vaccines work...'? Of course not. Did he appoint the right people, let them spend what was needed and keep out of the way? Yes he did.

    It is fair to give him credit for things done well just as it is fair to blame for the things that went wrong. Don't let hatred or disdain for Johnson cloud that. There is enough to mock already.
    In his leaving speech he claimed he achieved one of his big promises, and fixed social care.

    Are we okay to work on the basis that he didn’t and ask, will we ever have a government that will actually fix social care?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613
    Dura_Ace said:

    It's Westminster slang for Shappsie's wig.
    I thought it was the liquid stuff certain MPs picked up before a hard evening's recreation, or indeed a hard day's work.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,421

    Get a wristband, four hours in the pub, come back when your place is near the front.

    Is that how it works?
    Get a wristband, go home, tell everyone you were there.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,068

    Amused by your claim that trickle-down economics is "known not to work", it absolutely does work.

    Cutting taxes in both the UK and the USA in the 80s led to significant growth and eventual budget surpluses in the 90s.

    That the growth and surplus such tax cutting brought about was subsequently pissed away, is not a problem with "trickle down economics".
    Some Conservatives still believe in trickle down economics, but that’s not the same as it actually working. The International Monetary Fund say it doesn’t work: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Staff-Discussion-Notes/Issues/2016/12/31/Causes-and-Consequences-of-Income-Inequality-A-Global-Perspective-42986 Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz says it doesn’t work.

    (The US in the ‘80s saw growth, you say, so this proves trickle down works. Except Reagan did other things: he increased government spending by 2.5% a year. And he massively increased the national debt from $997 billion in 1981 to $2.85 trillion in 1989. Meanwhile, income inequality massively increased.)

    There are various academic papers showing trickle down doesn’t work, like https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w21035/w21035.pdf or this landmark study, https://academic.oup.com/ser/article/20/2/539/6500315?login=false

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613

    Some Conservatives still believe in trickle down economics, but that’s not the same as it actually working. The International Monetary Fund say it doesn’t work: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Staff-Discussion-Notes/Issues/2016/12/31/Causes-and-Consequences-of-Income-Inequality-A-Global-Perspective-42986 Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz says it doesn’t work.

    (The US in the ‘80s saw growth, you say, so this proves trickle down works. Except Reagan did other things: he increased government spending by 2.5% a year. And he massively increased the national debt from $997 billion in 1981 to $2.85 trillion in 1989. Meanwhile, income inequality massively increased.)

    There are various academic papers showing trickle down doesn’t work, like https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w21035/w21035.pdf or this landmark study, https://academic.oup.com/ser/article/20/2/539/6500315?login=false

    All this evidence-based stuff. You make trickle-down sound like homoeopathy without the placebo.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968

    The deficit.

    It traditionally goes up during and immediately after a recession due to countercyclical factors, while it comes down in the years of growth. Brown instead took us from budget surplus to maxed out deficit pre-crash meaning we were terribly exposed when the inevitable crash inevitably happened.
    So what are the deficit figures from 2007, 2010, 2016, and today to absolutely prove your argument right here right now?
  • I think its rather magnificent that the two things Britain still leads the world in and does to elite level - Royalty and forming an orderly queue have merged at this time .
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,081
    On the bankers the bonuses the bankers the bonuses, this is a test of Kwarteng’s will to “do things differently”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3tUqRBiMVo&ab_channel=HighTory

    Any normal politician would back off, recognising this is not the time (even Boris Johnson did) https://www.ft.com/content/e5dac84e-dabf-4408-8d65-1db0ecc315c3 https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1570387332951584768/photo/1

    But Truss & Kwarteng seem fitfully committed to ideology over political prudence
  • a week before Boris was ousted I cleaned behind the fridge, and all the grime looked just like a hand squeezing a dogs genitals.
    How do you know what that looks like?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,322

    In his leaving speech he claimed he achieved one of his big promises, and fixed social care.

    Are we okay to work on the basis that he didn’t and ask, will we ever have a government that will actually fix social care?
    The last person going into an election promising to fix social care and with a tax raising plan to do it, was widely perceived to have lost (albeit they formed a government). Its really hard to do. Ultimately I think we don't do well in the country as don't expect to look after our own family when they get old - we regard that as the job of the state. We also don't want to pay the state to do it. Then there is the bizarre fixation about passing on wealth to your children. If I don't inherit a penny from my folks it won't matter - if they need the money to be comfortable as they age then so be it. Its not MY money - it's theirs. Yet some like @HYUFD are obsessed with the idea that inheritance is sacrosanct.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613

    The last person going into an election promising to fix social care and with a tax raising plan to do it, was widely perceived to have lost (albeit they formed a government). Its really hard to do. Ultimately I think we don't do well in the country as don't expect to look after our own family when they get old - we regard that as the job of the state. We also don't want to pay the state to do it. Then there is the bizarre fixation about passing on wealth to your children. If I don't inherit a penny from my folks it won't matter - if they need the money to be comfortable as they age then so be it. Its not MY money - it's theirs. Yet some like @HYUFD are obsessed with the idea that inheritance is sacrosanct.
    Slightly tactless to comment on inheritance at the moment ... some of us have to pay tax, but others don't because thet have the right sort of children, right sort of divine right, etc. etc. ...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556
    Scott_xP said:

    If you are given a wristband that guarantees your position, and you can leave and return at will to that position, the queue itself is redundant.

    Issue people wristbands in order at some place, and have a notice at Westminster Hall "now serving bands 18,378 to 18,465" and so on
    How do you determine who gets the wristbands and in what order?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,216
    A Ukrainian govt adviser tells the BBC that around 1000 dead bodies have been found in the newly captured town of Izyum, held by Russia for many months. He says there were more civilian deaths in Izyum than in Bucha, where the Russians committed documented atrocities.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnSimpsonNews/status/1570341055224221696
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,099

    Amused by your claim that trickle-down economics is "known not to work", it absolutely does work.

    Cutting taxes in both the UK and the USA in the 80s led to significant growth and eventual budget surpluses in the 90s.

    That the growth and surplus such tax cutting brought about was subsequently pissed away, is not a problem with "trickle down economics".
    Cutting UK taxes in the 80s? Not according to The World Bank. Tax take rose from 22% of GDP in 1978 and 1979 to 26% of GDP in 1982 and it averaged >24% through the 80s. Doubling VAT may have had something to do with that.

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/GC.TAX.TOTL.GD.ZS?locations=GB
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,068

    The deficit.

    It traditionally goes up during and immediately after a recession due to countercyclical factors, while it comes down in the years of growth. Brown instead took us from budget surplus to maxed out deficit pre-crash meaning we were terribly exposed when the inevitable crash inevitably happened.
    Do we not have a “maxed out deficit” now?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,001
    Dura_Ace said:

    Meanwhile the FOC date for F-35B has been pushed to the right by two years by the MoD to save money. The flegship might me more defensible if it didn't have to come out of the defence budget.

    It is politically impossible to cancel it while the country is in the grip of ultra nationalist fleg bukkake. Starmer will have to quietly shelve it in a few years time under the guise of "pausing to review options about the onboard provision of pens" or similar bollocks.
    Could just sell Clarence House to a Saudi royal, use the money to pay for New Britannia, Saudi Royal and Britannia hire all the sacked Clarence House staff. Everyone ecstatically happy.

    Make sure pen for signing the sale deed is a Schaeffer no-nonsense on a big desk.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613
    edited September 2022
    GRaun feed:

    "Amidst ongoing concerns about services across the UK that will be cancelled or closed next Monday, including operations and funerals, the Scottish government has issued its own guidance.

    Whilst it says that school should close as a mark of respect, essential healthcare services should continue, including pre-planned treatments, and the winter vaccination programme.

    Most public transport services are currently expected to run as normal."

    Our bins not being collected that day - but simply postponed till Saturday.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,852

    Having watched it cross the heavens, I am testing myself hourly for newly gained super powers… so far I have failed to ignite the cooker hob with a stern look of the eyes and have strained my back trying to lift the car whilst examining Mrs P”s undergarments…
    If you start losing your sight, do remember to stock up on glyphosate.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,099

    Well no. At height of party gate he was more unpopular with party members than when the parliamentary party ousted him. Swing back was going on in both Tory membership AND the country. He was coming back, the more partygate was history not in the news the more Boris was coming back. Just look at some government and PM ratings in the past mid terms and how they came back to win.

    You are quite wrong, Labour did want him out the way and far more confident now because the way Boris comes alive in campaigns was an X factor in the calculation they could do without.
    Which of my actual statements is "quite wrong"?
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,507
    Carnyx said:

    GRaun feed:

    "Amidst ongoing concerns about services across the UK that will be cancelled or closed next Monday, including operations and funerals, the Scottish government has issued its own guidance.

    Whilst it says that school should close as a mark of respect, essential healthcare services should continue, including pre-planned treatments, and the winter vaccination programme.

    Most public transport services are currently expected to run as normal."

    Our bins not being collected that day - but simply postponed till Saturday.

    How much of the working population do you eliminate by closing schools? It must be a sizable chunk of it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,000
    Nigelb said:

    A Ukrainian govt adviser tells the BBC that around 1000 dead bodies have been found in the newly captured town of Izyum, held by Russia for many months. He says there were more civilian deaths in Izyum than in Bucha, where the Russians committed documented atrocities.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnSimpsonNews/status/1570341055224221696

    It will be the same everywhere.

    This is what anyone calling for a ceasefire is inflicting on the residents under Russian control. The Russian default setting is "Utter Depravity".
  • So what are the deficit figures from 2007, 2010, 2016, and today to absolutely prove your argument right here right now?
    From 2002 to 2007, pre-crash, the Budget deficit increased from a surplus of 1.4% to a deficit of 2.9% . . . a pre-crash worsening of 4.3% of GDP

    From 2013 to 2019, pre-crash, the Budget deficit fell from 7.4% to 1.5%, a pre-crash improvement of 5.9% of GDP

    The net difference between a 4.3% deterioration in the accounts, and a 5.9% improvement in them, is 10.2% of GDP.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613
    Phil said:

    How much of the working population do you eliminate by closing schools? It must be a sizable chunk of it.
    It's a bank holiday anyway, in Scotland too.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,099
    edited September 2022
    TOPPING said:

    How do you determine who gets the wristbands and in what order?
    You queue up for them?

    Reminds me of when we did a day trip to Rome off a cruise ship on what happened to be Easter Saturday. Overheard a US lady on the phone to a friend complaining that she had been queuing for two hours for a ticket to the Colosseum and once she got it there was another hour-long queue to get in.

    (She should have brought a wheelchair, I just wheeled up to the entrance and got let in straight away - for free. I love Italy!)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,582
    Scott_xP said:

    Having seen some footage recently of HMQ and Britannia, and I more in favour of a new Royal Yacht than previously, especially since the FLSOJ will have no part in it
    We really don't need it.Lizzy Truss successfully negotiated her dairy for Japanese cars contra deal without it.

    Besides which BigDog could return.
  • HYUFD said:

    He also delivered Brexit and the vaccines on his watch and of course
    Theresa was sadly unable to defeat Corbyn.

    Once we have gone through the Tory leaderships of Truss, Badenoch, Braverman and Rees Mogg even you might miss Boris!
    HY, old chap. We have one of the biggest and best pharmaceutical sectors in the known universe, and that has nothing to do with Johnson. When I last looked Boris Johnson has no scientific credential. If the decision relating to the procurement was his (which I doubt he took on his own) it was a good call. The rest of the whole pandemic was a mixture of bad and very very bad. On top of that we have a man that presided over a culture of partying at No10 while knowing other people were making great sacrifices. He is without doubt the worst PM in recent history, if not the whole of history. There are no circumstances where I will miss having such a lying cretinous clown as our PM. It is a shame that you are an apologist for him, as it demonstrates that you, by association, must be as dishonest as he.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,099

    From 2002 to 2007, pre-crash, the Budget deficit increased from a surplus of 1.4% to a deficit of 2.9% . . . a pre-crash worsening of 4.3% of GDP

    From 2013 to 2019, pre-crash, the Budget deficit fell from 7.4% to 1.5%, a pre-crash improvement of 5.9% of GDP

    The net difference between a 4.3% deterioration in the accounts, and a 5.9% improvement in them, is 10.2% of GDP.
    Why have you omitted the period 2007 to 2013?
  • Personally, I am watching for news items about the sea boiling south of the Hebrides and communication slowly being lost with communities along the West Coast of Scotland....
    Hope it's not aliens, they might ask to be taken to our leaders and then where would we be?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556
    edited September 2022

    You queue up for them?

    Reminds me of when we did a day trip to Rome off a cruise ship on what happened to be Easter Saturday. Overheard a US lady on the phone to a friend complaining that she had been queuing for two hours for a ticket to the Colosseum and once she got it there was another hour-long queue to get in.

    (She should have brought a wheelchair, I just wheeled up to the entrance and got let in straight away - for free. I love Italy!)
    Good for you how very sensible.

    And yes, as to your rhetorical question - somewhere somehow a queue is needed and it's going to be a big 'un.
  • Why have you omitted the period 2007 to 2013?
    Because we were discussing what happened in the years pre-crash.

    Looking from 2002 to 2010 and 2010 to 2019 would make the deterioration in Labour's accounts and the improvement in Tory accounts even more exaggerated, but I did not consider that to be fair or reasonable.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,000
    boulay said:

    Could just sell Clarence House to a Saudi royal, use the money to pay for New Britannia, Saudi Royal and Britannia hire all the sacked Clarence House staff. Everyone ecstatically happy.

    Make sure pen for signing the sale deed is a Schaeffer no-nonsense on a big desk.

    Putin's Really Big Desk will be available by then....
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613
    edited September 2022

    Hope it's not aliens, they might ask to be taken to our leaders and then where would we be?
    Apparently one of Mr Musk's comsats. Beginning to wonder how many more fireballs we'll see, given how many comsats of his there are.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,582

    Inflation has peaked … it’s under control…
    Thank you Professor Minford.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,216

    It will be the same everywhere.

    This is what anyone calling for a ceasefire is inflicting on the residents under Russian control. The Russian default setting is "Utter Depravity".
    It won't be exactly the same - various liberated towns or villages with larger percentages of Russian speaking Ukrainians have reported less brutal occupation. But even in those, murders and other crimes have been documented.

    But the general point is absolutely correct.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,081
    TOPPING said:

    How do you determine who gets the wristbands and in what order?

    First come first served, at the wristband distribution point, which is somewhere that is not Westminster Hall.

    There would be a queue...
  • I think its rather magnificent that the two things Britain still leads the world in and does to elite level - Royalty and forming an orderly queue have merged at this time .

    There was a Guards Rupert on the radio saying rather pathetically that Britain could still do 'world class ceremonial' so you can add that to the mix.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968

    Cutting UK taxes in the 80s? Not according to The World Bank. Tax take rose from 22% of GDP in 1978 and 1979 to 26% of GDP in 1982 and it averaged >24% through the 80s. Doubling VAT may have had something to do with that.

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/GC.TAX.TOTL.GD.ZS?locations=GB
    One of the attractions of the Conservative Party to me my young self was how they bang on about being the party of low tax, give us back more of our money to spend or save ourselves, not the state. That sounds great.

    But then I read up on how many of the sneaky stealth taxes were created when Tories in power like the factual example you just shown - progressive taxes did come down, but flat and regressive tax did go up. And in a sneaky way because extra in a pay packet may buy votes, unless you realise the more sneaky taxes have crept into your house keeping jug and taking it all away and more decides, as the % increase in your post proves.

    The Tories should be known as the UKs high tax party really.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,849
    edited September 2022

    HY, old chap. We have one of the biggest and best pharmaceutical sectors in the known universe, and that has nothing to do with Johnson. When I last looked Boris Johnson has no scientific credential. If the decision relating to the procurement was his (which I doubt he took on his own) it was a good call. The rest of the whole pandemic was a mixture of bad and very very bad. On top of that we have a man that presided over a culture of partying at No10 while knowing other people were making great sacrifices. He is without doubt the worst PM in recent history, if not the whole of history. There are no circumstances where I will miss having such a lying cretinous clown as our PM. It is a shame that you are an apologist for him, as it demonstrates that you, by association, must be as dishonest as he.
    the post starts of well enough and each sentence then gets more unreasonable than the one before!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,056

    There was a Guards Rupert on the radio saying rather pathetically that Britain could still do 'world class ceremonial' so you can add that to the mix.
    Covered under royal so still only 2.
  • Do we not have a “maxed out deficit” now?
    No, the pre-crash deficit was vastly reduced in the years leading up to the crash, rather than increased in the years preceding the crash.

    Cyclical expenditure will fall away as Covid fades into history and as the world adapts post-Russia but the structural position is far stronger now than it was pre-GFC as the deficit was reducing not increasing prior to the crash.

    During and post-crash is when you're supposed to increase the deficit, not pre-crash.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,099

    Because we were discussing what happened in the years pre-crash.

    Looking from 2002 to 2010 and 2010 to 2019 would make the deterioration in Labour's accounts and the improvement in Tory accounts even more exaggerated, but I did not consider that to be fair or reasonable.
    Prior to the GFC of 2008 the deficit was lower every year under the Labour government than it had been in any year under Major. The deficit increased dramatically in response to the GFC but not as much as out has under The Tories in response to Covid and the CoL crisis.

    Your favourite, Truss, is borrowing again rather than taxing the wealthy to cap energy prices, I see.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,973
    edited September 2022
    I thought PBers would like a wee blast of Malc and his pithy rejoinder to twattish, squeaky-voiced man of iron, Ant Middleton.



    And for the sake of balance



  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831
    Scott_xP said:

    If you are given a wristband that guarantees your position, and you can leave and return at will to that position, the queue itself is redundant.

    Issue people wristbands in order at some place, and have a notice at Westminster Hall "now serving bands 18,378 to 18,465" and so on
    But part of the purpose of the queue is to ration the experience by providing it only to those willing to suffer the experience of waiting for hours. Make it too easy and demand will overwhelm supply and many people will be disappointed.
  • Carnyx said:

    Apparently one of Mr Musk's comsats. Beginning to wonder how many more fireballs we'll see, given how many comsats of his there are.
    I thought the starlink satellites were a lot larger than the estimated size of the object that caused the fireball.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,099
    TOPPING said:

    Good for you how very sensible.

    And yes, as to your rhetorical question - somewhere somehow a queue is needed and it's going to be a big 'un.
    I'll take all the small benefits to set against some of the many disadvantages tbh. :-)
  • Australian racehorse trainer Chris Waller has to miss the Queen's funeral owing to Covid.

    Australian trainer Chris Waller has announced he will be unable to attend the Queen’s state funeral on Monday due to “Covid-19 related circumstances”.

    Waller was due to join Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Governor-General David Hurley at Westminster Abbey with senior UK politicians and heads of state from across the world expected to attend.

    The Royal Ascot-winning handler was one of 10 Australians invited to attend for their “extraordinary contributions to their communities”.

    However, Waller, who counts record-breaker Winx, Melbourne Cup winner Verry Elleegant and sprint sensation Nature Strip among his recent stable stars and currently houses the Queen’s horse Chalk Stream, will not be able to make the trip.

    In a statement, he said: “It is an honour and I am extremely grateful to have been given the opportunity by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and the people of Australia to represent the country in farewelling Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II. Unfortunately due to Covid-19 related circumstances I am unable to attend the funeral.

    “Like so many others, I will live with and cherish for the rest of my life the fond memories I have of Her Majesty; her love of horses and animals, her passion for life and the respect she gave everyday people. My deepest condolences go out to the Royal family and the rest of the world that currently mourn.

    “What a great life Her Majesty lived and what an inspiration she was, and will continue to be, to so many generations around the globe.”

    https://www.attheraces.com/news/2022/September/15/chris-waller-to-miss-the-queen's-funeral
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,507

    It will be the same everywhere.

    This is what anyone calling for a ceasefire is inflicting on the residents under Russian control. The Russian default setting is "Utter Depravity".
    There’s a quote I saw somewhere which ran along the lines of: in war the antagonists generally commit war crimes eventually, it’s the nature of the beast. The difference with the Russian army is that they get straight into committing war crimes right from the outset.
  • You queue up for them?

    Reminds me of when we did a day trip to Rome off a cruise ship on what happened to be Easter Saturday. Overheard a US lady on the phone to a friend complaining that she had been queuing for two hours for a ticket to the Colosseum and once she got it there was another hour-long queue to get in.

    (She should have brought a wheelchair, I just wheeled up to the entrance and got let in straight away - for free. I love Italy!)
    I guess she'd never been to Disneyland. Everything's 'free' but severely rationed by queuing. A bit like the NHS, in fact.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,484
    TOPPING said:

    How do you determine who gets the wristbands and in what order?
    Voting intention?
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,559

    Interesting that @HYUFD describes Johnson as "the party's most successful leader since Thatcher". This is a totally ridiculous proposition. He bases "most successful" solely on his election victory over Jeremy fecking Corbyn.

    Johnson was responsible for one of the biggest fissures in the Tory Party since the Corn Laws. He became an international laughing stock. He thoroughly trashed the Conservative Party's reputation for sensible governance and found himself heaved out of No10 after only 3 years for dishonesty. Other than TMay you have to go back to 1827 to find a PM with a shorter tenure. He was hopeless. A bad joke. A man totally unfit for office. He was not successful, except in his ability to trounce the most ludicrous LoTO ever to have held that role, and to gull those foolish enough like @HYUFD into thinking he was appropriate to be Party leader and PM.
    And yet he unequivocally achieved more than Hague, IDS, Howard and May, so he's at worst in third place since Thatcher.
  • kle4 said:

    Covered under royal so still only 2.
    Could have administered the covid booster to those waiting in the queue for a fabulous hat-trick
  • kjh said:

    Good to know Malcolm is still with us. Was a little worried and do miss his posts here.
    He seems in fine voice!
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,456
    Nigelb said:

    It won't be exactly the same - various liberated towns or villages with larger percentages of Russian speaking Ukrainians have reported less brutal occupation. But even in those, murders and other crimes have been documented.

    But the general point is absolutely correct.

    They’ve been shitting everywhere too.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,099

    Australian racehorse trainer Chris Waller has to miss the Queen's funeral owing to Covid.

    Australian trainer Chris Waller has announced he will be unable to attend the Queen’s state funeral on Monday due to “Covid-19 related circumstances”.

    Waller was due to join Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Governor-General David Hurley at Westminster Abbey with senior UK politicians and heads of state from across the world expected to attend.

    The Royal Ascot-winning handler was one of 10 Australians invited to attend for their “extraordinary contributions to their communities”.

    However, Waller, who counts record-breaker Winx, Melbourne Cup winner Verry Elleegant and sprint sensation Nature Strip among his recent stable stars and currently houses the Queen’s horse Chalk Stream, will not be able to make the trip.

    In a statement, he said: “It is an honour and I am extremely grateful to have been given the opportunity by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and the people of Australia to represent the country in farewelling Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II. Unfortunately due to Covid-19 related circumstances I am unable to attend the funeral.

    “Like so many others, I will live with and cherish for the rest of my life the fond memories I have of Her Majesty; her love of horses and animals, her passion for life and the respect she gave everyday people. My deepest condolences go out to the Royal family and the rest of the world that currently mourn.

    “What a great life Her Majesty lived and what an inspiration she was, and will continue to be, to so many generations around the globe.”

    https://www.attheraces.com/news/2022/September/15/chris-waller-to-miss-the-queen's-funeral

    ...one of 10 Australians invited to attend for their “extraordinary contributions to their communities”

    FFS!
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,137
    edited September 2022

    Prior to the GFC of 2008 the deficit was lower every year under the Labour government than it had been in any year under Major. The deficit increased dramatically in response to the GFC but not as much as out has under The Tories in response to Covid and the CoL crisis.

    Your favourite, Truss, is borrowing again rather than taxing the wealthy to cap energy prices, I see.
    Again ignoring the economic cycle. 🤦‍♂️

    There was a crash at the start of the 90s, however the UK went into that, as it should, with a budget surplus which was built up during the Thatcher years. So the deficit increased at the start of the 90s, but then was reduced consistently after then building up towards the budget surplus. That was economics as it should be. The deficit expanding then shrinking countercyclically.

    Regrettably though, Brown took the budget surplus we had in 2002 and turned into into a mega deficit before the next recession hit. If he'd only kept the surplus as it was, not even made it a bigger surplus, then the UK would have been well placed for the inevitable next recession when it hit, just as we were the previous time.

    But he didn't, and the rest is history.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Goodness knows where the peak for US rates is now, after this week's data showed the Fed's hikes have so far not slowed inflation nor killed growth.


    UK rates are going to have to follow if we don't sterling to be renamed the Zimbabwe pound. To take those rate increases, fiscal easing and deregulation aren't just the best way for the economy, they are the only way.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831

    This is a bit divisive. Did Churchill win the second world war (from a British perspective - I know USSR/USA etc)? Yes. Did he fight in Normandy, the Ardennes, Crossing of the Rhine, in a Lancaster over Berlin? No (although he tried to get to Normandy...)

    Did Johnson head into the lab, roll up his sleeves and say 'right, we've got the spike sequence, its time to see if mRNA vaccines work...'? Of course not. Did he appoint the right people, let them spend what was needed and keep out of the way? Yes he did.

    It is fair to give him credit for things done well just as it is fair to blame for the things that went wrong. Don't let hatred or disdain for Johnson cloud that. There is enough to mock already.
    That’s not the story, though, is it?

    The reality is that he had to be read the riot act by some of the leading scientists and told that the country could not afford another scandalous f**k up, like we’d just been through with PPE procurement, and hence he and his money-grabbing political mates needed to stay well away from the vaccine rollout and let the scientists and procurement experts get on with the job.

    Yes, there’s a smidgin of credit for his having done as he was told (i.e, nothing). But, on a personal level, not much - about as much credit as Leon would deserve for a successful birthday party which he’d been told to stay away from lest he get drunk again and spoil.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,068

    No, the pre-crash deficit was vastly reduced in the years leading up to the crash, rather than increased in the years preceding the crash.

    Cyclical expenditure will fall away as Covid fades into history and as the world adapts post-Russia but the structural position is far stronger now than it was pre-GFC as the deficit was reducing not increasing prior to the crash.

    During and post-crash is when you're supposed to increase the deficit, not pre-crash.
    I’m not defending Brown’s premiership. I’m not talking about pre-crash. I’m talking about now.

    Truss wants to increase the deficit to give money to the rich. That is not what people normally mean when they talk about countercyclical spending.

  • In his leaving speech he claimed he achieved one of his big promises, and fixed social care.

    Are we okay to work on the basis that he didn’t and ask, will we ever have a government that will actually fix social care?
    @turbotubbs : I am not accusing you of being a fan or even an apologist, but attempts to draw favourable comparison between the Fat Lying Clown that recently (seemingly incredulously) held the position of PM of this great nation and W S Churchill, one of the greatest statesmen to have ever lived in the history of mankind, is risible to say the least.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,099

    Again ignoring the economic cycle. 🤦‍♂️

    There was a crash at the start of the 90s, however the UK went into that, as it should, with a budget surplus which was built up during the Thatcher years. So the deficit increased at the start of the 90s, but then was reduced consistently after then building up towards the budget surplus. That was economics as it should be. The deficit expanding then shrinking countercyclically.

    Regrettably though, Brown took the budget surplus we had in 2002 and turned into into a mega deficit before the next recession hit. If he'd only kept the surplus as it was, not even made it a bigger surplus, then the UK would have been well placed for the inevitable next recession when it hit, just as we were the previous time.

    But he didn't, and the rest is history.
    The 2009 deficit was 0.9% GDP according to https://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/uk_national_deficit_analysis.

    Is that a mega deficit?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,314
    edited September 2022
    Driver said:

    And yet he unequivocally achieved more than Hague, IDS, Howard and May, so he's at worst in third place since Thatcher.
    Sometimes what you achieve counts against you. Just think of some of the worlds leading dictators.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,081
    All living recipients of the Victoria Cross and George Cross have been invited to the late Queen’s funeral. 17 of the 23 are attending, some flying half way across the world to be there. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/royal-family/2022/09/14/victoria-cross-george-cross-recipients-invited-queen-elizabeth/
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,505
    Italy: Sky have a seat calculator for individual parties. A parties seats is a combination of their proportional share, plus how well they have done at bagging constituency seats within their own bloc.

    On typical polling (387 mainland Italy seats only) (Bloc in brackets):
    FdI: 118 on 25% (R)
    Lega: 72 on 12% (R)
    PD: 68 (and could do well in the 13 extraterritorial seats) on 21% (L)
    Forza: 49 on 8% (R)
    M5S: 35 on 13% (M5S)
    Azione-Italia Viva: 18 on 7% (Ctr)
    Left-Green: 12 on 4% (L)
    Moderates: 8 on 2% (R)
    +Europe, Civic: 3 on 3%
    Sudtirol Volksparty: 3 on local vote

    Lega, having done well on constituency bagging within the right bloc, will very likely hold the balance of power.

  • ...one of 10 Australians invited to attend for their “extraordinary contributions to their communities”

    FFS!
    Whats wrong with that - She was their Head of State too
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968

    One of the attractions of the Conservative Party to me my young self was how they bang on about being the party of low tax, give us back more of our money to spend or save ourselves, not the state. That sounds great.

    But then I read up on how many of the sneaky stealth taxes were created when Tories in power like the factual example you just shown - progressive taxes did come down, but flat and regressive tax did go up. And in a sneaky way because extra in a pay packet may buy votes, unless you realise the more sneaky taxes have crept into your house keeping jug and taking it all away and more decides, as the % increase in your post proves.

    The Tories should be known as the UKs high tax party really.
    But it’s not just the Tories are now outed as the high tax party, the truth is even far worse than that.
    If next year is recession, inflation and energy bill pain for some of the most hard up poor and working people in our country, and Truss does as she says and promises and make cuts of progressive tax, this will make the richer households benefit substantially, like plans to reverse national insurance tax increase. So not only the high tax party, but shift the tax burden of it onto working households whilst richer households always do best out of Tory tax cut promises.

    From 79 to 97, 2010 to now, this is the honest truth of what has happened isn’t it?

    CHB calls me a Tory, but I think, despite my Tory family I might be a Lib Dem. Maybe my family found me in a cabbage patch or a hand bag - because I just don’t trust or believe Tory rhetoric anymore.
This discussion has been closed.