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Starmer has better than a 56% chance of being PM after the next election – politicalbetting.com

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  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,376
    John Redwood turns his fire on Offgem and Offwat:
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/08/29/competition-is-the-best-regulator/

    I think he's been reading our very own Bartholemew!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,955
    carnforth said:

    nico679 said:

    Express puts comments about tax cuts by "visionary professor" Patrick Minford on front page as the hero worshipping of Truss gets under way.

    So it begins.

    God help us.

    It really is vomit inducing ! Funny how the DE fails to mention that Minford thought destroying UK manufacturing and agriculture was a price worth paying to get the low regulation economy Leavers allegedly wanted !
    Would you say that subsidising the offshoring of UK manufacturing to cheaper parts of the single market was a price worth paying for membership of the EU?
    Had we not allowed the purchase of British manufacturing and service companies by a Conservative Government in the 1980s by foreign owners much of that issue could have been avoided. It was nothing to do with the EU.

    Wholly British owned companies seeing a quick buck exported manufacturing and services further afield than the EU. India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and China for example. That was nothing to do with the EU.

    An example was Marks and Spencer who's USP was predominantly British manufactured product throughout the store. Now find any manufactured item in an M and S store that isn't imported. That had nothing to do with the EU it was a decision by M and S management.
    More just a simple reality: given that cheap clothes from abroad now exist, customers won’t bear the prices of UK-made ones.

    Fifty or sixty years ago a young man in a white collar job might have had to pay a day’s wages for each white shirt and a week’s wages for a pair of black oxfords - he had no choice. Now he can buy a shirt for two hours’ wages and a pair of shoes for a day’s - or less.

    If M&S wanted to remain mass-market, quality had to go down, because the public demanded prices go down.
    That's the thing: manufactured goods have become cheap, but the cost of homes (rent, etc.) has risen to absorb any savings.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,280
    Andy_JS said:

    Express puts comments about tax cuts by "visionary professor" Patrick Minford on front page as the hero worshipping of Truss gets under way.

    So it begins.

    God help us.

    What's the problem with Professor Minford's theories?
    Far be it for me to disagree with Professor Minford but he doesn't appear to have many fellow travellers. Thatcherism flourished in the intellectual climate of neoliberalism - Von Mises, Hayek and Friedman. Where is this movement now?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,955
    Andy_JS said:

    Express puts comments about tax cuts by "visionary professor" Patrick Minford on front page as the hero worshipping of Truss gets under way.

    So it begins.

    God help us.

    What's the problem with Professor Minford's theories?
    I was lucky enough to be taught by Professor Minford (and others) as part of a History of Financial Markets course I took about a decade ago. He was extremely smart, and a great talker.

    But he did suffer somewhat from Goodwinism: that is, his world view was fixed, and he would attempt to fit any new evidence around it.

    Of course, we all suffer from that to some extent, but it meant that he was just interesting, rather than actually inspiring.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,376

    Andy_JS said:

    Express puts comments about tax cuts by "visionary professor" Patrick Minford on front page as the hero worshipping of Truss gets under way.

    So it begins.

    God help us.

    What's the problem with Professor Minford's theories?
    Far be it for me to disagree with Professor Minford but he doesn't appear to have many fellow travellers. Thatcherism flourished in the intellectual climate of neoliberalism - Von Mises, Hayek and Friedman. Where is this movement now?
    Living the high life in Singapore?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,623
    The most important news this week is from Ukraine. Seems patchy at the moment, but if things go as seems to be planned (which they may not - it could well grind to a halt) then we’re looking at one of a. a rout and a revolution / coup in Russia, b. a negotiated peace before winter, c. nuclear escalation.

    The relative silence on Twitter is unnerving.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,992
    edited August 2022

    Is SKS sound on Ukraine?

    He's been impressively consistent in supporting the government on everything they've done for Ukraine

    But..

    He tried twice to put Putin appeaser Corbyn into Downing St

    He's pleased his supporters by proving that he'll say anything to get elected

    Why would even they believe what he says now?

    What an odd post.

    One can be critical of Starmer for all sorts of failings, but he has not demonstrated any reluctance to support the fight against Putin.

    Like the Jimmy Savile slur the Putin shill accusation might cause Starmer problems. Go on Trussian Tories, you know you want to.
    I noted his impressive consistency in supporting the government. How is that anything like Savile? And why are you trying to bring up SJS v SKS?

    I don’t fully trust Sunak on Ukraine. Why should I treat Sir Keir any different?
    You may recall a rather far fetched and wholly incorrect accusation from Johnson that Starmer facilitated Savile and failed to prosecute him. It was quite effective as it got Starmer roughed up. Your accusation is equally absurd.

    In my view Johnson saw Ukraine as a means of salvation after Partygate. I found his visits to be tiresome electioneering, except for his visit last week. He didn't have to go, so hats off.
    I didn't make an accusation. I asked a question. A question that I also asked of Sunak and Truss. I noted that Starmer had been good so far. I also noted why I had reasons for concern.

    Can you solidly guarantee that he'll stick to what he's so far supported?

    Even though you love the fact that he tricked the Corbynites by lying?
    I can criticise Starmer for many things but hoodwinking the Corbynistas was a perfectly reasonable action. It gave the nation a modestly reasonable Opposition. I don't suppose it took much to bamboozle the dull clowns either.
    I'll bet you're hoping that Liz is hoodwinking the ERG
    That would be awesome.
    Is it awesome if Sir Keir is hoodwinking you, but gets elected?
    I doubt he is. I consider myself to be far smarter than anyone who thinks the answer was Jeremy Corbyn.
    Did you not vote Labour in 2017 and 2019?
    Who I voted for is my business.

    On each occasion I might have decided I would vote for whoever was best placed to displace my Conservative MP Alun Cairns. In 2017 I would have voted for the Party that was best placed to curtail Brexit. In 2019 I might have considered "anyone but Boris". There may be several other determinants as to why I voted for who I voted for.

    At no point have I decided I need to put my cross against the name that will furnish our great nation with a Jeremy Corbyn Government. I will acknowledge I considered a Jeremy Corbyn minority Government less dangerous than a Johnson majority Government.

    Unless one is HYUFD, politics is often about compromise rather than ideology. Maybe next time I will just draw an enormous penis against Alun Cairns' name.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,393
    TimS said:

    The most important news this week is from Ukraine. Seems patchy at the moment, but if things go as seems to be planned (which they may not - it could well grind to a halt) then we’re looking at one of a. a rout and a revolution / coup in Russia, b. a negotiated peace before winter, c. nuclear escalation.

    The relative silence on Twitter is unnerving.

    I wouldn't draw any conclusions from Twitter, even if it's that nothing is happening on the platform.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,484
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    I really enjoyed The Genesis Secret

    I thought it was a really fun holiday read. And I've been delighted to be the first of my acquaintances to know about Göbekli Tepe

    Without PB I would never had read Thomas Knox, SeanT "or" @Leon writing about it

    I shall pass on your kind and generous remarks to the author. He does seem to follow me about, despite my best efforts, so there is a fair chance I will run into him

    *sigh*
    Just catching up with last night.

    You posted a preposterous image purportedly of me which I found felt distasteful and upsetting. I don't know why you bully people like that or what you get out of it. Please desist or I will have no option but to launch an official complaint.

    The picture however did bear an uncanny resemblance to my identical twin brother and I will be speaking to him to ensure he is not likewise offended.
    You mean THIS selfie of you, @TOPPING, which all of those in the know regard as a fair representation?

    I'm not sure why you want to deny, it anyway. It captures your masculinity, That rugged, honest, authentic, debonair, really quite alpha TOPPING_ness which is quintessentially YOU


  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 1,055
    rcs1000 - Thanks for that link, though I think my point stands. No other industrial nation has managed to get above a total fertility rate of 2.1, in recent decades.

    The even sharper increase in the United Kingdom's TFR during the same time leads me to this observation: Birth rates rose while George W. Bush was president of the US, and while Tony Blair was prime minister of Britain.

    Note that I said "while", not "because", but I do think both men, however temporarily, raised the morale in their nations.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,992

    So is SKS a Blairite, Brownite, Corbynite, maybe even a Milibandite?

    Do we have any idea what a Starmerite believes in yet?

    I can remember two policies - taxing private schools and subsidising energy companies, and then taxing them

    And something about donkeys

    Does Starmer need an ideology?

    Did Cameron or May have an ideology? Did Johnson? Does Truss? Is populism an ideology?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,992
    edited August 2022
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    I really enjoyed The Genesis Secret

    I thought it was a really fun holiday read. And I've been delighted to be the first of my acquaintances to know about Göbekli Tepe

    Without PB I would never had read Thomas Knox, SeanT "or" @Leon writing about it

    I shall pass on your kind and generous remarks to the author. He does seem to follow me about, despite my best efforts, so there is a fair chance I will run into him

    *sigh*
    Just catching up with last night.

    You posted a preposterous image purportedly of me which I found felt distasteful and upsetting. I don't know why you bully people like that or what you get out of it. Please desist or I will have no option but to launch an official complaint.

    The picture however did bear an uncanny resemblance to my identical twin brother and I will be speaking to him to ensure he is not likewise offended.
    You mean THIS selfie of you, @TOPPING, which all of those in the know regard as a fair representation?

    I'm not sure why you want to deny, it anyway. It captures your masculinity, That rugged, honest, authentic, debonair, really quite alpha TOPPING_ness which is quintessentially YOU

    You were warned!
  • Is SKS sound on Ukraine?

    He's been impressively consistent in supporting the government on everything they've done for Ukraine

    But..

    He tried twice to put Putin appeaser Corbyn into Downing St

    He's pleased his supporters by proving that he'll say anything to get elected

    Why would even they believe what he says now?

    What an odd post.

    One can be critical of Starmer for all sorts of failings, but he has not demonstrated any reluctance to support the fight against Putin.

    Like the Jimmy Savile slur the Putin shill accusation might cause Starmer problems. Go on Trussian Tories, you know you want to.
    I noted his impressive consistency in supporting the government. How is that anything like Savile? And why are you trying to bring up SJS v SKS?

    I don’t fully trust Sunak on Ukraine. Why should I treat Sir Keir any different?
    You may recall a rather far fetched and wholly incorrect accusation from Johnson that Starmer facilitated Savile and failed to prosecute him. It was quite effective as it got Starmer roughed up. Your accusation is equally absurd.

    In my view Johnson saw Ukraine as a means of salvation after Partygate. I found his visits to be tiresome electioneering, except for his visit last week. He didn't have to go, so hats off.
    I didn't make an accusation. I asked a question. A question that I also asked of Sunak and Truss. I noted that Starmer had been good so far. I also noted why I had reasons for concern.

    Can you solidly guarantee that he'll stick to what he's so far supported?

    Even though you love the fact that he tricked the Corbynites by lying?
    I can criticise Starmer for many things but hoodwinking the Corbynistas was a perfectly reasonable action. It gave the nation a modestly reasonable Opposition. I don't suppose it took much to bamboozle the dull clowns either.
    I'll bet you're hoping that Liz is hoodwinking the ERG
    That would be awesome.
    Is it awesome if Sir Keir is hoodwinking you, but gets elected?
    I doubt he is. I consider myself to be far smarter than anyone who thinks the answer was Jeremy Corbyn.
    Did you not vote Labour in 2017 and 2019?
    Who I voted for is my business.

    On each occasion I might have decided I would vote for whoever was best placed to displace my Conservative MP Alun Cairns. In 2017 I would have voted for the Party that was best placed to curtail Brexit. In 2019 I might have considered "anyone but Boris". There may be several other determinants as to why I voted for who I voted for.

    At no point have I decided I need to put my cross against the name that will furnish our great nation with a Jeremy Corbyn Government. I will acknowledge I considered a Jeremy Corbyn minority Government less dangerous than a Johnson majority Government.

    Unless one is HYUFD, politics is often about compromise rather than ideology. Maybe next time I will just draw an enormous penis against Alun Cairns' name.
    So you might have voted for a Corbyn government, but not for Corbyn.

    Does that make you more or less smart than yourself?
  • ...

    Is SKS sound on Ukraine?

    He's been impressively consistent in supporting the government on everything they've done for Ukraine

    But..

    He tried twice to put Putin appeaser Corbyn into Downing St

    He's pleased his supporters by proving that he'll say anything to get elected

    Why would even they believe what he says now?

    What an odd post.

    One can be critical of Starmer for all sorts of failings, but he has not demonstrated any reluctance to support the fight against Putin.

    Like the Jimmy Savile slur the Putin shill accusation might cause Starmer problems. Go on Trussian Tories, you know you want to.
    I noted his impressive consistency in supporting the government. How is that anything like Savile? And why are you trying to bring up SJS v SKS?

    I don’t fully trust Sunak on Ukraine. Why should I treat Sir Keir any different?
    You may recall a rather far fetched and wholly incorrect accusation from Johnson that Starmer facilitated Savile and failed to prosecute him. It was quite effective as it got Starmer roughed up. Your accusation is equally absurd.

    In my view Johnson saw Ukraine as a means of salvation after Partygate. I found his visits to be tiresome electioneering, except for his visit last week. He didn't have to go, so hats off.
    I didn't make an accusation. I asked a question. A question that I also asked of Sunak and Truss. I noted that Starmer had been good so far. I also noted why I had reasons for concern.

    Can you solidly guarantee that he'll stick to what he's so far supported?

    Even though you love the fact that he tricked the Corbynites by lying?
    I can criticise Starmer for many things but hoodwinking the Corbynistas was a perfectly reasonable action. It gave the nation a modestly reasonable Opposition. I don't suppose it took much to bamboozle the dull clowns either.
    So honesty in politics is not important if you're being dishonest for a noble purpose?
    For someone who has banged the drum for Johnson for the past three years and excused every whopper spoken, you cannot seriously claim you are an advocate for political probity and honesty.

    To answer your question if the means justifies the end.
    I think all politicians are dishonest and I'm realistic about that.

    The difference is that most others on this site act sanctimoniously like honesty in politics is universal apart from the aberration that is Boris.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,484

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    I really enjoyed The Genesis Secret

    I thought it was a really fun holiday read. And I've been delighted to be the first of my acquaintances to know about Göbekli Tepe

    Without PB I would never had read Thomas Knox, SeanT "or" @Leon writing about it

    I shall pass on your kind and generous remarks to the author. He does seem to follow me about, despite my best efforts, so there is a fair chance I will run into him

    *sigh*
    Just catching up with last night.

    You posted a preposterous image purportedly of me which I found felt distasteful and upsetting. I don't know why you bully people like that or what you get out of it. Please desist or I will have no option but to launch an official complaint.

    The picture however did bear an uncanny resemblance to my identical twin brother and I will be speaking to him to ensure he is not likewise offended.
    You mean THIS selfie of you, @TOPPING, which all of those in the know regard as a fair representation?

    I'm not sure why you want to deny, it anyway. It captures your masculinity, That rugged, honest, authentic, debonair, really quite alpha TOPPING_ness which is quintessentially YOU

    You were warned!
    I know, but it's funny. Which I believe excuses almost EVERYTHING
  • So is SKS a Blairite, Brownite, Corbynite, maybe even a Milibandite?

    Do we have any idea what a Starmerite believes in yet?

    I can remember two policies - taxing private schools and subsidising energy companies, and then taxing them

    And something about donkeys

    Does Starmer need an ideology?

    Did Cameron or May have an ideology? Did Johnson? Does Truss? Is populism an ideology?
    You don't care what he says OR what he believes in, so long as he's "Labour"?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,992

    Is SKS sound on Ukraine?

    He's been impressively consistent in supporting the government on everything they've done for Ukraine

    But..

    He tried twice to put Putin appeaser Corbyn into Downing St

    He's pleased his supporters by proving that he'll say anything to get elected

    Why would even they believe what he says now?

    What an odd post.

    One can be critical of Starmer for all sorts of failings, but he has not demonstrated any reluctance to support the fight against Putin.

    Like the Jimmy Savile slur the Putin shill accusation might cause Starmer problems. Go on Trussian Tories, you know you want to.
    I noted his impressive consistency in supporting the government. How is that anything like Savile? And why are you trying to bring up SJS v SKS?

    I don’t fully trust Sunak on Ukraine. Why should I treat Sir Keir any different?
    You may recall a rather far fetched and wholly incorrect accusation from Johnson that Starmer facilitated Savile and failed to prosecute him. It was quite effective as it got Starmer roughed up. Your accusation is equally absurd.

    In my view Johnson saw Ukraine as a means of salvation after Partygate. I found his visits to be tiresome electioneering, except for his visit last week. He didn't have to go, so hats off.
    I didn't make an accusation. I asked a question. A question that I also asked of Sunak and Truss. I noted that Starmer had been good so far. I also noted why I had reasons for concern.

    Can you solidly guarantee that he'll stick to what he's so far supported?

    Even though you love the fact that he tricked the Corbynites by lying?
    I can criticise Starmer for many things but hoodwinking the Corbynistas was a perfectly reasonable action. It gave the nation a modestly reasonable Opposition. I don't suppose it took much to bamboozle the dull clowns either.
    I'll bet you're hoping that Liz is hoodwinking the ERG
    That would be awesome.
    Is it awesome if Sir Keir is hoodwinking you, but gets elected?
    I doubt he is. I consider myself to be far smarter than anyone who thinks the answer was Jeremy Corbyn.
    Did you not vote Labour in 2017 and 2019?
    Who I voted for is my business.

    On each occasion I might have decided I would vote for whoever was best placed to displace my Conservative MP Alun Cairns. In 2017 I would have voted for the Party that was best placed to curtail Brexit. In 2019 I might have considered "anyone but Boris". There may be several other determinants as to why I voted for who I voted for.

    At no point have I decided I need to put my cross against the name that will furnish our great nation with a Jeremy Corbyn Government. I will acknowledge I considered a Jeremy Corbyn minority Government less dangerous than a Johnson majority Government.

    Unless one is HYUFD, politics is often about compromise rather than ideology. Maybe next time I will just draw an enormous penis against Alun Cairns' name.
    So you might have voted for a Corbyn government, but not for Corbyn.

    Does that make you more or less smart than yourself?
    I haven't said that at all.

    What I have said is if I voted Labour in 2017 and 19 it wouldn't have been exclusively to enthusiastically win a Corbyn led Government. If my vote led to a Corbyn Government it would have been because I considered the alternative less than optimal. What is dumb about that?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,992

    ...

    Is SKS sound on Ukraine?

    He's been impressively consistent in supporting the government on everything they've done for Ukraine

    But..

    He tried twice to put Putin appeaser Corbyn into Downing St

    He's pleased his supporters by proving that he'll say anything to get elected

    Why would even they believe what he says now?

    What an odd post.

    One can be critical of Starmer for all sorts of failings, but he has not demonstrated any reluctance to support the fight against Putin.

    Like the Jimmy Savile slur the Putin shill accusation might cause Starmer problems. Go on Trussian Tories, you know you want to.
    I noted his impressive consistency in supporting the government. How is that anything like Savile? And why are you trying to bring up SJS v SKS?

    I don’t fully trust Sunak on Ukraine. Why should I treat Sir Keir any different?
    You may recall a rather far fetched and wholly incorrect accusation from Johnson that Starmer facilitated Savile and failed to prosecute him. It was quite effective as it got Starmer roughed up. Your accusation is equally absurd.

    In my view Johnson saw Ukraine as a means of salvation after Partygate. I found his visits to be tiresome electioneering, except for his visit last week. He didn't have to go, so hats off.
    I didn't make an accusation. I asked a question. A question that I also asked of Sunak and Truss. I noted that Starmer had been good so far. I also noted why I had reasons for concern.

    Can you solidly guarantee that he'll stick to what he's so far supported?

    Even though you love the fact that he tricked the Corbynites by lying?
    I can criticise Starmer for many things but hoodwinking the Corbynistas was a perfectly reasonable action. It gave the nation a modestly reasonable Opposition. I don't suppose it took much to bamboozle the dull clowns either.
    So honesty in politics is not important if you're being dishonest for a noble purpose?
    For someone who has banged the drum for Johnson for the past three years and excused every whopper spoken, you cannot seriously claim you are an advocate for political probity and honesty.

    To answer your question if the means justifies the end.
    I think all politicians are dishonest and I'm realistic about that.

    The difference is that most others on this site act sanctimoniously like honesty in politics is universal apart from the aberration that is Boris.
    I don't think that true at all. How we all laughed 15 years ago when we ridiculed B.Liar. Johnson could bullshit for Britain, and he mainly did. In his case the absolute bollocks just spewed from his mouth 24/7.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,992

    So is SKS a Blairite, Brownite, Corbynite, maybe even a Milibandite?

    Do we have any idea what a Starmerite believes in yet?

    I can remember two policies - taxing private schools and subsidising energy companies, and then taxing them

    And something about donkeys

    Does Starmer need an ideology?

    Did Cameron or May have an ideology? Did Johnson? Does Truss? Is populism an ideology?
    You don't care what he says OR what he believes in, so long as he's "Labour"?
    Not at all. My prerequisite for voting for a Starmer Government is that it is the best hope we have of removing a discredited populist Johnsonian- Trussian Government from holding the levers of power.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,393
    An excellent video in my opinion by Russell Brand about lockdowns.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9pR_qkeHJaw
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,376

    rcs1000 - Thanks for that link, though I think my point stands. No other industrial nation has managed to get above a total fertility rate of 2.1, in recent decades.

    The even sharper increase in the United Kingdom's TFR during the same time leads me to this observation: Birth rates rose while George W. Bush was president of the US, and while Tony Blair was prime minister of Britain.

    Note that I said "while", not "because", but I do think both men, however temporarily, raised the morale in their nations.

    I'm not sure what was being raised at the time was anything to do with those gentlemen.

    It was just a very prosperous time. In the UK we had a golden Tory economic legacy, and then Labour came in and turned the spending taps on. It couldn't last, but whilst it was happening it was very much milk and honey.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 11,183
    TimS said:

    The most important news this week is from Ukraine. Seems patchy at the moment, but if things go as seems to be planned (which they may not - it could well grind to a halt) then we’re looking at one of a. a rout and a revolution / coup in Russia, b. a negotiated peace before winter, c. nuclear escalation.

    The relative silence on Twitter is unnerving.

    Twitter seems to be down for me. The new series of MAFSUK must have broken it.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,992
    Andy_JS said:

    An excellent video in my opinion by Russell Brand about lockdowns.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9pR_qkeHJaw

    Hasn't Brand suddenly gone full on Lawrence Fox? Best avoided then.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,623

    rcs1000 - Thanks for that link, though I think my point stands. No other industrial nation has managed to get above a total fertility rate of 2.1, in recent decades.

    The even sharper increase in the United Kingdom's TFR during the same time leads me to this observation: Birth rates rose while George W. Bush was president of the US, and while Tony Blair was prime minister of Britain.

    Note that I said "while", not "because", but I do think both men, however temporarily, raised the morale in their nations.

    I'm not sure what was being raised at the time was anything to do with those gentlemen.

    It was just a very prosperous time. In the UK we had a golden Tory economic legacy, and then Labour came in and turned the spending taps on. It couldn't last, but whilst it was happening it was very much milk and honey.
    There’s so much mythology about the 1990s, particularly the “golden legacy” which 99.5% of people quote based only on their party saying it rather than any actual data. I remember the mid 1990s and they were in some ways pretty similar to now - drifting economic and spending policy, public infrastructure and services on their knees, a
    vacuum in government. Things were starting to improve after a brutal recession and house prices crash which had both been worse than the rest of Western Europe, and of course a crash in the value of Sterling.

    But in better news after playing around with Leon’s latest AI plaything and being frankly disappointed (it seems very similar to Dall:E and misses more than it hits) I did score a decent one with “Nordic noir thriller featuring Sir Keir Starmer” and the same for Liz Truss and Ed Davey. Then variations involving other national TV styles. Shan’t post here due to the moratorium.
  • Interesting from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/08/29/britains-open-door-immigration-entirely-changes-economics-brexit/

    As of next week, Britain will have the most ethnically-diverse cabinet of any major country in the OECD bloc. That will be apparent to the world.

    Less understood is that the new Prime Minister will also preside over one of the most liberal and open immigration systems among the developed economies, and considerably more open in key respects than the large EU states.

    This is so far removed from the catechism of the global intelligentsia – let us call it the New York Times view – that many will simply refuse to acknowledge the facts.

    Whatever may have been said by certain people during the Referendum, and whatever Theresa May thought Brexit was supposed to mean, the actual regime established by Boris Johnson for work visas and the resettlement of legal refugees is strikingly expansionary. Furthermore, it has been obvious for some time that this is the direction of travel.

    “I am delighted to say that I have been proved wrong. When it comes to work visas, we have one of the most liberal immigration systems in the world,” said Professor Jonathan Portes from the London School of Economics.

    Just read that article myself. Very good indeed. Even if one disagrees with AEP's conclusions (which I don't) he makes some very good points about the assumptions made by think tanks prior to Brexit being proved by reality to be fundamentally flawed. I was not aware of the numbers involved but given my views on immigration I am delighted that the fears perpetuated by many supposed authorities have turned out to be false.
  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651
    edited August 2022
    The AI program Crossword Genius dismally failed to solve my cryptic clue

    Bring a key, then lose endgame confusingly for alternative to checkmate in shatranj (4,4),

    which @BlancheLivermore cracked fast.

    Its top guess was "Pass band", followed by "Take back" and "Land area".

    It wouldn't surprise me if the best AI solvers of cryptic crossword clues are worse at solving clues, on some sensible metric, than the programs' own authors. (Perhaps not when the setter's style and range are known. But that isn't much to write home about.)
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 220
    Two more updates to the tracker polls for the Swedish elections, Novus for SVT giving the current government a lead of 3.9% up from 2.9%, SKOP has moved in the other direction, a government lead of 0.7% moving to an opposition lead of 0.5%. It's always tempting to see patterns in what are quite small movements in the polls but in both polls the Sweden Democrats and Centre Party have increased their share just at a time when the Sweden Democrats have been accused of running a "hate campaign" against the Centre Party leader propelling both parties to the forefront.

    Overall the seat projection on the average polling is still 178 for the current government confidence and supply parties (S+V+C+MP) and 171 for the opposition (SD+M+KD+L).


  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,955

    rcs1000 - Thanks for that link, though I think my point stands. No other industrial nation has managed to get above a total fertility rate of 2.1, in recent decades.

    The even sharper increase in the United Kingdom's TFR during the same time leads me to this observation: Birth rates rose while George W. Bush was president of the US, and while Tony Blair was prime minister of Britain.

    Note that I said "while", not "because", but I do think both men, however temporarily, raised the morale in their nations.

    Hmmm:

    I'm not sure it's that simple. Especially as you need also to explain why France under Sarkozy and Hollande also showed rising birthrates. (Mind you, they both cheated publicly on their wives, so maybe that's it...)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,603
    TimS said:

    rcs1000 - Thanks for that link, though I think my point stands. No other industrial nation has managed to get above a total fertility rate of 2.1, in recent decades.

    The even sharper increase in the United Kingdom's TFR during the same time leads me to this observation: Birth rates rose while George W. Bush was president of the US, and while Tony Blair was prime minister of Britain.

    Note that I said "while", not "because", but I do think both men, however temporarily, raised the morale in their nations.

    I'm not sure what was being raised at the time was anything to do with those gentlemen.

    It was just a very prosperous time. In the UK we had a golden Tory economic legacy, and then Labour came in and turned the spending taps on. It couldn't last, but whilst it was happening it was very much milk and honey.
    There’s so much mythology about the 1990s, particularly the “golden legacy” which 99.5% of people quote based only on their party saying it rather than any actual data. I remember the mid 1990s and they were in some ways pretty similar to now - drifting economic and spending policy, public infrastructure and services on their knees, a
    vacuum in government. Things were starting to improve after a brutal recession and house prices crash which had both been worse than the rest of Western Europe, and of course a crash in the value of Sterling.

    But in better news after playing around with Leon’s latest AI plaything and being frankly disappointed (it seems very similar to Dall:E and misses more than it hits) I did score a decent one with “Nordic noir thriller featuring Sir Keir Starmer” and the same for Liz Truss and Ed Davey. Then variations involving other national TV styles. Shan’t post here due to the moratorium.
    It did better at an artist’s impression of Leon at home….


  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651
    edited August 2022
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This really is the end of art as we know it. Turns out DALLE-2 was just a vague premonition

    I see you've managed to buck the system by posting a troubling Dalle image as your avatar.
    I couldn’t resist. Because it really looks like me. I was quite a rambunctious child

    I met Ted Hughes In his later years and, flatteringly, he remembered me as a child because - as he put it - you ‘were a very noisy boy’
    Actually, that avatar reminds me of the baby buried alive in the clay pot, in The Genesis Secret.
    Wait.

    You read a Tom Knox book?

    They aren't for reading. Good god. I don't believe the author even made it all the way through.
    You’re suggesting the remainder was written by a (very) rudimentary AI ?
    Humanity itself is, of course, a rudimentary form of AI, or, indeed, I

    It is amazing how many people who are firmly atheistic believe there is, nonetheless, something sacred about human intelligence than cannot be mimicked and bettered by a bunch of electronics. They are all molecules. They were all brought together by the "artifice" of evolution, and mutation, and random change. This time intelligence has evolved via another intelligence. So be it. Shit happens
    Wrong! Neither a human being's mind nor a dog's mind can be replicated, let alone "bettered", by a bunch of electronics, by which I assume you mean a program, which basically means a large integer. (A long string of 0s and 1s is a large integer.) Neither you nor the collection of everything you've done and felt and dreamed in your life can be expressed as an integer. I know AI heads think otherwise, but they are fools who don't begin to understand.

    You need to read Alan Turing's 1950 article "Computing Machinery and Intelligence" that started this whole idiocy off, paying special attention to what he listed as possible objection Number 9. He knew it blew his approach completely out of the water. That's why he said fine, let's assume we're running the experiment in a "telepathy-proof room".

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,955
    Dynamo said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This really is the end of art as we know it. Turns out DALLE-2 was just a vague premonition

    I see you've managed to buck the system by posting a troubling Dalle image as your avatar.
    I couldn’t resist. Because it really looks like me. I was quite a rambunctious child

    I met Ted Hughes In his later years and, flatteringly, he remembered me as a child because - as he put it - you ‘were a very noisy boy’
    Actually, that avatar reminds me of the baby buried alive in the clay pot, in The Genesis Secret.
    Wait.

    You read a Tom Knox book?

    They aren't for reading. Good god. I don't believe the author even made it all the way through.
    You’re suggesting the remainder was written by a (very) rudimentary AI ?
    Humanity itself is, of course, a rudimentary form of AI, or, indeed, I

    It is amazing how many people who are firmly atheistic believe there is, nonetheless, something sacred about human intelligence than cannot be mimicked and bettered by a bunch of electronics. They are all molecules. They were all brought together by the "artifice" of evolution, and mutation, and random change. This time intelligence has evolved via another intelligence. So be it. Shit happens
    Wrong! Neither a human being's mind nor a dog's mind can be replicated, let alone "bettered", by a bunch of electronics, by which I assume you mean a program, which basically means a large integer. (A long string of 0s and 1s is a large integer.) Neither you nor the collection of everything you've done and felt and dreamed in your life can be expressed as an integer. I know AI heads think otherwise, but they are fools who don't begin to understand.

    You need to read Alan Turing's 1950 article "Computing Machinery and Intelligence" that started this whole idiocy off, paying special attention to what he listed as possible objection Number 9. He knew it blew his approach completely out of the water. That's why he said fine, let's assume we're running the experiment in a "telepathy-proof room".

    Your brain is made up of physical things: neurons made up of molecules, blood, oxygen, dendrites,and all subject to the laws of nature.

    It can - and will - be replicated and surpassed.

    But probably not for a very long time.
  • pingping Posts: 3,282
    Test
  • pingping Posts: 3,282
    Dynamo said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This really is the end of art as we know it. Turns out DALLE-2 was just a vague premonition

    I see you've managed to buck the system by posting a troubling Dalle image as your avatar.
    I couldn’t resist. Because it really looks like me. I was quite a rambunctious child

    I met Ted Hughes In his later years and, flatteringly, he remembered me as a child because - as he put it - you ‘were a very noisy boy’
    Actually, that avatar reminds me of the baby buried alive in the clay pot, in The Genesis Secret.
    Wait.

    You read a Tom Knox book?

    They aren't for reading. Good god. I don't believe the author even made it all the way through.
    You’re suggesting the remainder was written by a (very) rudimentary AI ?
    Humanity itself is, of course, a rudimentary form of AI, or, indeed, I

    It is amazing how many people who are firmly atheistic believe there is, nonetheless, something sacred about human intelligence than cannot be mimicked and bettered by a bunch of electronics. They are all molecules. They were all brought together by the "artifice" of evolution, and mutation, and random change. This time intelligence has evolved via another intelligence. So be it. Shit happens
    Wrong! Neither a human being's mind nor a dog's mind can be replicated, let alone "bettered", by a bunch of electronics, by which I assume you mean a program, which basically means a large integer. (A long string of 0s and 1s is a large integer.) Neither you nor the collection of everything you've done and felt and dreamed in your life can be expressed as an integer. I know AI heads think otherwise, but they are fools who don't begin to understand.

    You need to read Alan Turing's 1950 article "Computing Machinery and Intelligence" that started this whole idiocy off, paying special attention to what he listed as possible objection Number 9. He knew it blew his approach completely out of the water. That's why he said fine, let's assume we're running the experiment in a "telepathy-proof room".

    “Possible objection number 9” is a great band name.

    Not quite as good as “The Committee for the Promotion of Virtue and the Prevention of Vice”

    To my knowledge it’s still unclaimed, if anyone is starting a band and wants to nick it.

  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651
    rcs1000 said:

    Dynamo said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This really is the end of art as we know it. Turns out DALLE-2 was just a vague premonition

    I see you've managed to buck the system by posting a troubling Dalle image as your avatar.
    I couldn’t resist. Because it really looks like me. I was quite a rambunctious child

    I met Ted Hughes In his later years and, flatteringly, he remembered me as a child because - as he put it - you ‘were a very noisy boy’
    Actually, that avatar reminds me of the baby buried alive in the clay pot, in The Genesis Secret.
    Wait.

    You read a Tom Knox book?

    They aren't for reading. Good god. I don't believe the author even made it all the way through.
    You’re suggesting the remainder was written by a (very) rudimentary AI ?
    Humanity itself is, of course, a rudimentary form of AI, or, indeed, I

    It is amazing how many people who are firmly atheistic believe there is, nonetheless, something sacred about human intelligence than cannot be mimicked and bettered by a bunch of electronics. They are all molecules. They were all brought together by the "artifice" of evolution, and mutation, and random change. This time intelligence has evolved via another intelligence. So be it. Shit happens
    Wrong! Neither a human being's mind nor a dog's mind can be replicated, let alone "bettered", by a bunch of electronics, by which I assume you mean a program, which basically means a large integer. (A long string of 0s and 1s is a large integer.) Neither you nor the collection of everything you've done and felt and dreamed in your life can be expressed as an integer. I know AI heads think otherwise, but they are fools who don't begin to understand.

    You need to read Alan Turing's 1950 article "Computing Machinery and Intelligence" that started this whole idiocy off, paying special attention to what he listed as possible objection Number 9. He knew it blew his approach completely out of the water. That's why he said fine, let's assume we're running the experiment in a "telepathy-proof room".

    Your brain is made up of physical things: neurons made up of molecules, blood, oxygen, dendrites,and all subject to the laws of nature.

    It can - and will - be replicated and surpassed.

    But probably not for a very long time.
    But my mind isn't.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,393
    Dynamo said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This really is the end of art as we know it. Turns out DALLE-2 was just a vague premonition

    I see you've managed to buck the system by posting a troubling Dalle image as your avatar.
    I couldn’t resist. Because it really looks like me. I was quite a rambunctious child

    I met Ted Hughes In his later years and, flatteringly, he remembered me as a child because - as he put it - you ‘were a very noisy boy’
    Actually, that avatar reminds me of the baby buried alive in the clay pot, in The Genesis Secret.
    Wait.

    You read a Tom Knox book?

    They aren't for reading. Good god. I don't believe the author even made it all the way through.
    You’re suggesting the remainder was written by a (very) rudimentary AI ?
    Humanity itself is, of course, a rudimentary form of AI, or, indeed, I

    It is amazing how many people who are firmly atheistic believe there is, nonetheless, something sacred about human intelligence than cannot be mimicked and bettered by a bunch of electronics. They are all molecules. They were all brought together by the "artifice" of evolution, and mutation, and random change. This time intelligence has evolved via another intelligence. So be it. Shit happens
    Wrong! Neither a human being's mind nor a dog's mind can be replicated, let alone "bettered", by a bunch of electronics, by which I assume you mean a program, which basically means a large integer. (A long string of 0s and 1s is a large integer.) Neither you nor the collection of everything you've done and felt and dreamed in your life can be expressed as an integer. I know AI heads think otherwise, but they are fools who don't begin to understand.

    You need to read Alan Turing's 1950 article "Computing Machinery and Intelligence" that started this whole idiocy off, paying special attention to what he listed as possible objection Number 9. He knew it blew his approach completely out of the water. That's why he said fine, let's assume we're running the experiment in a "telepathy-proof room".

    Idiocy is a good way of describing it.
  • A tiny move back to Rishi but still 20/1 vs 1/20.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.05 Liz Truss 95%
    21 Rishi Sunak 5%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.05 Liz Truss 95%
    21 Rishi Sunak 5%

    Another small movement towards Rishi

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.06 Liz Truss 94%
    16.5 Rishi Sunak 6%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.05 Liz Truss 95%
    17.5 Rishi Sunak 6%
  • Dynamo said:
    Helsinki in Finland?

    The Mirror story your pal sent refers to the Channel 4 documentary series Investigating Diana: Death in Paris that can be downstreamed from their web site:
    https://www.channel4.com/programmes/investigating-diana-death-in-paris
  • Dynamo said:

    The AI program Crossword Genius dismally failed to solve my cryptic clue

    Bring a key, then lose endgame confusingly for alternative to checkmate in shatranj (4,4),

    which @BlancheLivermore cracked fast.

    Its top guess was "Pass band", followed by "Take back" and "Land area".

    It wouldn't surprise me if the best AI solvers of cryptic crossword clues are worse at solving clues, on some sensible metric, than the programs' own authors. (Perhaps not when the setter's style and range are known. But that isn't much to write home about.)

    Or it was trained on American and not British crosswords?
  • Interesting from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/08/29/britains-open-door-immigration-entirely-changes-economics-brexit/

    As of next week, Britain will have the most ethnically-diverse cabinet of any major country in the OECD bloc. That will be apparent to the world.

    Less understood is that the new Prime Minister will also preside over one of the most liberal and open immigration systems among the developed economies, and considerably more open in key respects than the large EU states.

    This is so far removed from the catechism of the global intelligentsia – let us call it the New York Times view – that many will simply refuse to acknowledge the facts.

    Whatever may have been said by certain people during the Referendum, and whatever Theresa May thought Brexit was supposed to mean, the actual regime established by Boris Johnson for work visas and the resettlement of legal refugees is strikingly expansionary. Furthermore, it has been obvious for some time that this is the direction of travel.

    “I am delighted to say that I have been proved wrong. When it comes to work visas, we have one of the most liberal immigration systems in the world,” said Professor Jonathan Portes from the London School of Economics.

    Just read that article myself. Very good indeed. Even if one disagrees with AEP's conclusions (which I don't) he makes some very good points about the assumptions made by think tanks prior to Brexit being proved by reality to be fundamentally flawed. I was not aware of the numbers involved but given my views on immigration I am delighted that the fears perpetuated by many supposed authorities have turned out to be false.
    Tbh I thought everyone knew Boris was pro-immigration, he said it often enough, and also that immigration had increased. The standard pb Brexiteer defence has been that we are now, post-Brexit, free to choose.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,955
    Dynamo said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Dynamo said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This really is the end of art as we know it. Turns out DALLE-2 was just a vague premonition

    I see you've managed to buck the system by posting a troubling Dalle image as your avatar.
    I couldn’t resist. Because it really looks like me. I was quite a rambunctious child

    I met Ted Hughes In his later years and, flatteringly, he remembered me as a child because - as he put it - you ‘were a very noisy boy’
    Actually, that avatar reminds me of the baby buried alive in the clay pot, in The Genesis Secret.
    Wait.

    You read a Tom Knox book?

    They aren't for reading. Good god. I don't believe the author even made it all the way through.
    You’re suggesting the remainder was written by a (very) rudimentary AI ?
    Humanity itself is, of course, a rudimentary form of AI, or, indeed, I

    It is amazing how many people who are firmly atheistic believe there is, nonetheless, something sacred about human intelligence than cannot be mimicked and bettered by a bunch of electronics. They are all molecules. They were all brought together by the "artifice" of evolution, and mutation, and random change. This time intelligence has evolved via another intelligence. So be it. Shit happens
    Wrong! Neither a human being's mind nor a dog's mind can be replicated, let alone "bettered", by a bunch of electronics, by which I assume you mean a program, which basically means a large integer. (A long string of 0s and 1s is a large integer.) Neither you nor the collection of everything you've done and felt and dreamed in your life can be expressed as an integer. I know AI heads think otherwise, but they are fools who don't begin to understand.

    You need to read Alan Turing's 1950 article "Computing Machinery and Intelligence" that started this whole idiocy off, paying special attention to what he listed as possible objection Number 9. He knew it blew his approach completely out of the water. That's why he said fine, let's assume we're running the experiment in a "telepathy-proof room".

    Your brain is made up of physical things: neurons made up of molecules, blood, oxygen, dendrites,and all subject to the laws of nature.

    It can - and will - be replicated and surpassed.

    But probably not for a very long time.
    But my mind isn't.
    Your mind isn't made up of physical things?

    Well, it's view.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,042
    .

    Andy_JS said:

    Express puts comments about tax cuts by "visionary professor" Patrick Minford on front page as the hero worshipping of Truss gets under way.

    So it begins.

    God help us.

    What's the problem with Professor Minford's theories?
    Far be it for me to disagree with Professor Minford but he doesn't appear to have many fellow travellers. Thatcherism flourished in the intellectual climate of neoliberalism - Von Mises, Hayek and Friedman. Where is this movement now?
    Living the high life in Singapore?
    You're suggesting they were all advocates fir the state ownership of land ?
    Seems implausible.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,042
    rcs1000 said:

    Dynamo said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Dynamo said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This really is the end of art as we know it. Turns out DALLE-2 was just a vague premonition

    I see you've managed to buck the system by posting a troubling Dalle image as your avatar.
    I couldn’t resist. Because it really looks like me. I was quite a rambunctious child

    I met Ted Hughes In his later years and, flatteringly, he remembered me as a child because - as he put it - you ‘were a very noisy boy’
    Actually, that avatar reminds me of the baby buried alive in the clay pot, in The Genesis Secret.
    Wait.

    You read a Tom Knox book?

    They aren't for reading. Good god. I don't believe the author even made it all the way through.
    You’re suggesting the remainder was written by a (very) rudimentary AI ?
    Humanity itself is, of course, a rudimentary form of AI, or, indeed, I

    It is amazing how many people who are firmly atheistic believe there is, nonetheless, something sacred about human intelligence than cannot be mimicked and bettered by a bunch of electronics. They are all molecules. They were all brought together by the "artifice" of evolution, and mutation, and random change. This time intelligence has evolved via another intelligence. So be it. Shit happens
    Wrong! Neither a human being's mind nor a dog's mind can be replicated, let alone "bettered", by a bunch of electronics, by which I assume you mean a program, which basically means a large integer. (A long string of 0s and 1s is a large integer.) Neither you nor the collection of everything you've done and felt and dreamed in your life can be expressed as an integer. I know AI heads think otherwise, but they are fools who don't begin to understand.

    You need to read Alan Turing's 1950 article "Computing Machinery and Intelligence" that started this whole idiocy off, paying special attention to what he listed as possible objection Number 9. He knew it blew his approach completely out of the water. That's why he said fine, let's assume we're running the experiment in a "telepathy-proof room".

    Your brain is made up of physical things: neurons made up of molecules, blood, oxygen, dendrites,and all subject to the laws of nature.

    It can - and will - be replicated and surpassed.

    But probably not for a very long time.
    But my mind isn't.
    Your mind isn't made up of physical things?

    Well, it's view.
    It's a pretty silly one.

    It's quite correct to say that we have very little idea of how the brain actually works as a system - which is what I meant upthread about it being an unsolved question.

    But there's zero evidence that mind is independent of the physical system, and rather a lot to show its intimately tied up with it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,042
    .
    TimS said:

    rcs1000 - Thanks for that link, though I think my point stands. No other industrial nation has managed to get above a total fertility rate of 2.1, in recent decades.

    The even sharper increase in the United Kingdom's TFR during the same time leads me to this observation: Birth rates rose while George W. Bush was president of the US, and while Tony Blair was prime minister of Britain.

    Note that I said "while", not "because", but I do think both men, however temporarily, raised the morale in their nations.

    I'm not sure what was being raised at the time was anything to do with those gentlemen.

    It was just a very prosperous time. In the UK we had a golden Tory economic legacy, and then Labour came in and turned the spending taps on. It couldn't last, but whilst it was happening it was very much milk and honey.
    ...But in better news after playing around with Leon’s latest AI plaything and being frankly disappointed (it seems very similar to Dall:E and misses more than it hits) I did score a decent one with “Nordic noir thriller featuring Sir Keir Starmer” and the same for Liz Truss and Ed Davey. Then variations involving other national TV styles. Shan’t post here due to the moratorium.
    The interesting thing about it definitely isn't the images you or Leon are currently turning out, but rather that it's open source, and other developers are able with very limited restrictions to integrate it with their own stuff.
    And it's very cheap.

    The field is going to develop very quickly.


  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,042

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    I really enjoyed The Genesis Secret

    I thought it was a really fun holiday read. And I've been delighted to be the first of my acquaintances to know about Göbekli Tepe

    Without PB I would never had read Thomas Knox, SeanT "or" @Leon writing about it

    I shall pass on your kind and generous remarks to the author. He does seem to follow me about, despite my best efforts, so there is a fair chance I will run into him

    *sigh*
    Just catching up with last night.

    You posted a preposterous image purportedly of me which I found felt distasteful and upsetting. I don't know why you bully people like that or what you get out of it. Please desist or I will have no option but to launch an official complaint.

    The picture however did bear an uncanny resemblance to my identical twin brother and I will be speaking to him to ensure he is not likewise offended.
    You mean THIS selfie of you, @TOPPING, which all of those in the know regard as a fair representation?

    I'm not sure why you want to deny, it anyway. It captures your masculinity, That rugged, honest, authentic, debonair, really quite alpha TOPPING_ness which is quintessentially YOU

    You were warned!
    I look forward to his reports from the eastern front.
    In a month or so's time when his exile there is rescinded.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,042

    TimS said:

    The most important news this week is from Ukraine. Seems patchy at the moment, but if things go as seems to be planned (which they may not - it could well grind to a halt) then we’re looking at one of a. a rout and a revolution / coup in Russia, b. a negotiated peace before winter, c. nuclear escalation.

    The relative silence on Twitter is unnerving.

    Twitter seems to be down for me. The new series of MAFSUK must have broken it.
    Information is likely to be limited or delayed, since Ukraine is hardly going to telegraph its moves in advance, but it will start to trickle out soon.

    Zelensky tonight: “Anyone want to know what our plans are? You won’t hear specifics from any truly responsible person. Because this is war.”

    “But the occupiers should know: we will oust them to the border.”

    “If they want to survive, it is time for the Russian military to flee.”

    https://mobile.twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1564356133107576832
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,042
    S Korea decides not to waste money on building a carrier.

    CVX Reportedly Left Out Of South Korea’s 2023 Defense Budget
    https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/08/cvx-reportedly-left-out-of-south-koreas-2023-defense-budget/
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,433
    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    Interesting from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/08/29/britains-open-door-immigration-entirely-changes-economics-brexit/

    As of next week, Britain will have the most ethnically-diverse cabinet of any major country in the OECD bloc. That will be apparent to the world.

    Less understood is that the new Prime Minister will also preside over one of the most liberal and open immigration systems among the developed economies, and considerably more open in key respects than the large EU states.

    This is so far removed from the catechism of the global intelligentsia – let us call it the New York Times view – that many will simply refuse to acknowledge the facts.

    Whatever may have been said by certain people during the Referendum, and whatever Theresa May thought Brexit was supposed to mean, the actual regime established by Boris Johnson for work visas and the resettlement of legal refugees is strikingly expansionary. Furthermore, it has been obvious for some time that this is the direction of travel.

    “I am delighted to say that I have been proved wrong. When it comes to work visas, we have one of the most liberal immigration systems in the world,” said Professor Jonathan Portes from the London School of Economics.

    Legal immigration is a very different beast to illegal immigration and is arguably being managed reasonably well.
    I think we do a reasonable job with legal migration. Some bits we do poorly: such as poor @Sandpit, who can't bring his Ukrainian wife back to the UK, because she doesn't earn enough. Others, like tech worker visas we do a pretty good job with.
    Not because she doesn’t earn enough, but because *I* don’t earn enough to support her. Which of course I do, just not in the UK so it doesn’t count. Ironically, under the new system, she can probably apply in her own right and get a better result.

    It’s moot now anyway, we are buying a place out here and will make a few more years of it.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,433

    carnforth said:

    nico679 said:

    Express puts comments about tax cuts by "visionary professor" Patrick Minford on front page as the hero worshipping of Truss gets under way.

    So it begins.

    God help us.

    It really is vomit inducing ! Funny how the DE fails to mention that Minford thought destroying UK manufacturing and agriculture was a price worth paying to get the low regulation economy Leavers allegedly wanted !
    Would you say that subsidising the offshoring of UK manufacturing to cheaper parts of the single market was a price worth paying for membership of the EU?
    Had we not allowed the purchase of British manufacturing and service companies by a Conservative Government in the 1980s by foreign owners much of that issue could have been avoided. It was nothing to do with the EU.

    Wholly British owned companies seeing a quick buck exported manufacturing and services further afield than the EU. India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and China for example. That was nothing to do with the EU.

    An example was Marks and Spencer who's USP was predominantly British manufactured product throughout the store. Now find any manufactured item in an M and S store that isn't imported. That had nothing to do with the EU it was a decision by M and S management.
    More just a simple reality: given that cheap clothes from abroad now exist, customers won’t bear the prices of UK-made ones.

    Fifty or sixty years ago a young man in a white collar job might have had to pay a day’s wages for each white shirt and a week’s wages for a pair of black oxfords - he had no choice. Now he can buy a shirt for two hours’ wages and a pair of shoes for a day’s - or less.

    If M&S wanted to remain mass-market, quality had to go down, because the public demanded prices go down.
    Absolutely. My point is the decision to offshore from the UK was a business choice, and not a demand made by the EU, which was the allusion being made by @williamglenn .
    No, but the EU were offering large subsidies, to companies that set up manufacturing plants in the poorer parts of the EU - which made the continuation of UK manufacturing even more uneconomic.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,433
    That’s the usual problem of ‘recruitment agents’ (local gangs) in poor countries, charging unskilled people to apply for things that they don’t know how to. Nothing whatsoever to do with anyone in the UK. The same issue has been a problem for the Middle East for ages.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,433
    Nigelb said:

    TimS said:

    The most important news this week is from Ukraine. Seems patchy at the moment, but if things go as seems to be planned (which they may not - it could well grind to a halt) then we’re looking at one of a. a rout and a revolution / coup in Russia, b. a negotiated peace before winter, c. nuclear escalation.

    The relative silence on Twitter is unnerving.

    Twitter seems to be down for me. The new series of MAFSUK must have broken it.
    Information is likely to be limited or delayed, since Ukraine is hardly going to telegraph its moves in advance, but it will start to trickle out soon.

    Zelensky tonight: “Anyone want to know what our plans are? You won’t hear specifics from any truly responsible person. Because this is war.”

    “But the occupiers should know: we will oust them to the border.”

    “If they want to survive, it is time for the Russian military to flee.”

    https://mobile.twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1564356133107576832
    There definitely something big going on in Kherson, it looks like what has been talked about for a few weeks is coming to fruition. The invaders have been starved of supplies so they have nothing to shoot back, and can easily be surrounded by the river with all the bridges out.

    The best thing the enemy can do now, is walk back over what’s left of the bridge, leaving the defenders with a few hundred vehicles to add to their collection.

    Fingers crossed that the defenders can retake everything west of the river without too many losses.
  • Undeclared pools in France uncovered by AI technology

    The discovery of thousands of undeclared private swimming pools in France has provided an unexpected windfall for French tax authorities.

    Following an experiment using artificial intelligence (AI), more than 20,000 hidden pools were discovered.

    They have amassed some €10m ($9.9; £8.5m) in revenue, French media is reporting.

    Pools can lead to higher property taxes because they boost property value, and must be declared under French law.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62717599

    Since rcs was asking for more AI stories.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,709
    Sweden’s principal centre-right party, the Moderates (remember Fredrik Reinfeldt and Carl Bildt?) is about to get absolutely spanked at the GE on 11 September.

    The current leader Ulf Kristersson has made a dreadful error of judgment by cosying up to the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats. Voters had been drifting away from the Moderates, but now it’s a flood.

    Today it is clear: the Sweden Democrats have overtaken the once mighty Moderates to be the largest opposition party:

    SD 20.6% (+3.1)
    M 15.8% (-4.0)

    Echos of the Tory hard-right completely routing the wet/one-nation wing.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,433
    Germany bans illuminated advertisements and shop displays between 10pm and 6am, in order to save electricity.
    https://www.theregister.com/2022/08/29/germany_digital_ad_display_shutdown/
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,717

    Undeclared pools in France uncovered by AI technology

    The discovery of thousands of undeclared private swimming pools in France has provided an unexpected windfall for French tax authorities.

    Following an experiment using artificial intelligence (AI), more than 20,000 hidden pools were discovered.

    They have amassed some €10m ($9.9; £8.5m) in revenue, French media is reporting.

    Pools can lead to higher property taxes because they boost property value, and must be declared under French law.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62717599

    Since rcs was asking for more AI stories.

    I would argue that was much more a case of machine learning than AI. But as AI is sexier, people use it for everything.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,717
    Sandpit said:

    Germany bans illuminated advertisements and shop displays between 10pm and 6am, in order to save electricity.
    https://www.theregister.com/2022/08/29/germany_digital_ad_display_shutdown/

    A new village is being built next to ours. Many of the main streets through it have been constructed, with street furniture (even bus stops) extant, even in areas where no houses have been built and were there is no public access.

    Yet the street lights are on every night!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,853
    Sandpit said:

    Germany bans illuminated advertisements and shop displays between 10pm and 6am, in order to save electricity.
    https://www.theregister.com/2022/08/29/germany_digital_ad_display_shutdown/

    It's a good idea. Lighting between midnight and 5 has always struck me as an unnecessary waste of energy.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,433

    Undeclared pools in France uncovered by AI technology

    The discovery of thousands of undeclared private swimming pools in France has provided an unexpected windfall for French tax authorities.

    Following an experiment using artificial intelligence (AI), more than 20,000 hidden pools were discovered.

    They have amassed some €10m ($9.9; £8.5m) in revenue, French media is reporting.

    Pools can lead to higher property taxes because they boost property value, and must be declared under French law.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62717599

    Since rcs was asking for more AI stories.

    I would argue that was much more a case of machine learning than AI. But as AI is sexier, people use it for everything.
    You mean that, if you take old fashioned reporting trend analysis but call it “AI blockchain”, all of a sudden it becomes a hundred times more marketable?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 9,061
    Dynamo said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This really is the end of art as we know it. Turns out DALLE-2 was just a vague premonition

    I see you've managed to buck the system by posting a troubling Dalle image as your avatar.
    I couldn’t resist. Because it really looks like me. I was quite a rambunctious child

    I met Ted Hughes In his later years and, flatteringly, he remembered me as a child because - as he put it - you ‘were a very noisy boy’
    Actually, that avatar reminds me of the baby buried alive in the clay pot, in The Genesis Secret.
    Wait.

    You read a Tom Knox book?

    They aren't for reading. Good god. I don't believe the author even made it all the way through.
    You’re suggesting the remainder was written by a (very) rudimentary AI ?
    Humanity itself is, of course, a rudimentary form of AI, or, indeed, I

    It is amazing how many people who are firmly atheistic believe there is, nonetheless, something sacred about human intelligence than cannot be mimicked and bettered by a bunch of electronics. They are all molecules. They were all brought together by the "artifice" of evolution, and mutation, and random change. This time intelligence has evolved via another intelligence. So be it. Shit happens
    Wrong! Neither a human being's mind nor a dog's mind can be replicated, let alone "bettered", by a bunch of electronics, by which I assume you mean a program, which basically means a large integer. (A long string of 0s and 1s is a large integer.) Neither you nor the collection of everything you've done and felt and dreamed in your life can be expressed as an integer. I know AI heads think otherwise, but they are fools who don't begin to understand.

    You need to read Alan Turing's 1950 article "Computing Machinery and Intelligence" that started this whole idiocy off, paying special attention to what he listed as possible objection Number 9. He knew it blew his approach completely out of the water. That's why he said fine, let's assume we're running the experiment in a "telepathy-proof room".

    It's an interesting question what had convinced Turing that "the statistical evidence, at least for telepathy, is overwhelming". It may have been the card-guessing experiments of J. B. Rhine at Duke University, which are still well known. But another possibility is the experiments of S. G. Soal in the UK. These had produced apparently overwhelming evidence, but it's now known that this was the result of fraud. Perhaps if he hadn't died prematurely Turing would have revised his opinion about telepathy in the course of time, or perhaps not.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,927
    edited August 2022

    Undeclared pools in France uncovered by AI technology

    The discovery of thousands of undeclared private swimming pools in France has provided an unexpected windfall for French tax authorities.

    Following an experiment using artificial intelligence (AI), more than 20,000 hidden pools were discovered.

    They have amassed some €10m ($9.9; £8.5m) in revenue, French media is reporting.

    Pools can lead to higher property taxes because they boost property value, and must be declared under French law.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62717599

    Since rcs was asking for more AI stories.

    I would argue that was much more a case of machine learning than AI. But as AI is sexier, people use it for everything.
    It is quite unimpressive because it is just automated photo-reconnaissance of the sort people were doing in the First World War, but sped up a bit by computer. It's not that the French supercomputer (or Google) figured out that people buying 5% more detergent in summer were washing swimming costumes.

    ETA it is probably more interesting as an example for future Chancellors of something new to tax.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Germany bans illuminated advertisements and shop displays between 10pm and 6am, in order to save electricity.
    https://www.theregister.com/2022/08/29/germany_digital_ad_display_shutdown/

    It's a good idea. Lighting between midnight and 5 has always struck me as an unnecessary waste of energy.
    Our council has no street lighting between mid*day* and 5 but in the interests of safety turns it on at night.
  • We need to get this judge onto SCOTUK.

    Army tribunal judge mocked me for being Welsh, says officer

    A judge and other tribunal members face an investigation after an army officer claimed he overheard them making “racist and discriminatory” comments during a remote hearing of his compensation claim.

    Officials were unaware that the major was still on his phone listening in during a ten-minute adjournment of his medical tribunal while the board members allegedly implied that he had “limited or impaired intelligence” because he was Welsh.

    In a letter seen by The Times, the officer, who has served in Northern Ireland, Iraq and Afghanistan during his 26 years in the army, accused the female judge, a male doctor and a member of the military of laughing because they thought he did not look like he had suffered a blast injury when discussing previous wounds he had sustained.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/army-tribunal-judge-mocked-me-for-being-welsh-says-officer-hrk7jtz7p
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,545
    edited August 2022

    Is SKS sound onUkraine?

    He's been impressively consistent in supporting the government on everything they've done for Ukraine

    But..

    He tried twice to put Putin appeaser Corbyn into Downing St

    He's pleased his supporters by proving that he'll say anything to get elected

    Why would even they believe what he says now?

    Is Truss sound on Brexit?

    She’s been impressively consistent in supporting the government on everything they've done on leaving the EU.

    But..

    She activity campaigned to keep the U.K. in the EU and for May’s deal.

    She’s pleased her supporters by proving that she'll say anything to get elected

    Why would even they believe what she says now?
  • Energy crisis: Early kick-off for football could cut floodlight costs

    Football bosses are to discuss whether matches in the lower divisions could kick off earlier to save money on floodlights, among measures to deal with rising energy costs.

    The English Football League, which runs the three divisions below the Premier League, will discuss the energy crisis at its board meeting next month with some clubs fearing their costs will rise by hundreds of thousands of pounds.

    It comes as pub and brewing companies urged the government to act in order to avoid “real and serious irreversible” damage to the sector.

    Andy Holt, chairman of the League One side Accrington Stanley, told The Times: “We don’t use a lot compared with some clubs but our bills are going to quadruple. It’s going to be hundreds of thousands of pounds a year and it’s going to be a disaster in the winter.

    “It’s floodlights, heating, electricity in the concession areas, everything. The only way we can cover the extra costs is by raising the price of tickets — but our fans will be struggling themselves with the energy price rises, this is Accrington not Belgravia. Their available income will be going down so can we really raise prices?”

    He added: “I’m not sure moving the kick-off earlier would have much impact — we still need to heat the stadium in winter.” Holt said floodlights had to be used for TV purposes if the natural light was dull.

    A League Two club chairman, who asked not to be named, said he would raise the idea of earlier kick-offs with the EFL. Football clubs are vulnerable because there is no price cap on businesses, with fears some could go into administration.

    An EFL spokesman said: “The league is currently engaging with clubs on the impact of rising energy prices on their operations. This does include floodlight usage and cost through the winter months.

    “Once the position is established, the matter will be discussed with the board at its next meeting in September.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/energy-crisis-early-kick-off-for-football-could-cut-floodlight-costs-xjq5glsmx
  • Totally agree, it isn't just doleys and plebs who will need support, some of us face the choice of heating or cancelling our skiing holidays.

    Handouts for only the most vulnerable people will not be enough, senior Tories have said, because Britain faces a “social and economic catastrophe” without swift intervention on energy bills.

    Conservatives MPs have said that the candidate who becomes prime minister should support the middle class as well as people on the lowest incomes.

    Victoria Prentis, an environment minister, said yesterday that “many, many different plans” were being worked on. “What we need to do is not necessarily help everybody in the country in the same way,” she said.

    However, the new prime minister is likely to face calls from within the party to immediately extend support.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tories-fear-limiting-help-on-energy-bills-will-lead-to-catastrophe-77cl50958
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,433

    Energy crisis: Early kick-off for football could cut floodlight costs

    Football bosses are to discuss whether matches in the lower divisions could kick off earlier to save money on floodlights, among measures to deal with rising energy costs.

    The English Football League, which runs the three divisions below the Premier League, will discuss the energy crisis at its board meeting next month with some clubs fearing their costs will rise by hundreds of thousands of pounds.

    It comes as pub and brewing companies urged the government to act in order to avoid “real and serious irreversible” damage to the sector.

    Andy Holt, chairman of the League One side Accrington Stanley, told The Times: “We don’t use a lot compared with some clubs but our bills are going to quadruple. It’s going to be hundreds of thousands of pounds a year and it’s going to be a disaster in the winter.

    “It’s floodlights, heating, electricity in the concession areas, everything. The only way we can cover the extra costs is by raising the price of tickets — but our fans will be struggling themselves with the energy price rises, this is Accrington not Belgravia. Their available income will be going down so can we really raise prices?”

    He added: “I’m not sure moving the kick-off earlier would have much impact — we still need to heat the stadium in winter.” Holt said floodlights had to be used for TV purposes if the natural light was dull.

    A League Two club chairman, who asked not to be named, said he would raise the idea of earlier kick-offs with the EFL. Football clubs are vulnerable because there is no price cap on businesses, with fears some could go into administration.

    An EFL spokesman said: “The league is currently engaging with clubs on the impact of rising energy prices on their operations. This does include floodlight usage and cost through the winter months.

    “Once the position is established, the matter will be discussed with the board at its next meeting in September.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/energy-crisis-early-kick-off-for-football-could-cut-floodlight-costs-xjq5glsmx

    Good. This was mentioned early on, have football and rugby kick off at 1pm rather than 3pm, so they don’t need the floodlights. Modern TV cameras work effectively in pretty dark environments.

    There’s a shortage of gas, and demand for power has to be reduced irrespective of price. The only arguments are where that reduction can occur without too much economic damage.
  • Almost 1.5m patients lose their GP as hundreds of practices close
    Nearly 500 surgeries have shut for good over the past eight years, investigation reveals

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/08/29/almost-15m-patients-lose-gp-hundreds-practices-close/ (£££)

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,847
    Good morning, everyone.

    Ladbrokes: this doesn't bother me much but I play the 1-2-Free promotion (guessing football results). Being forgetful, I checked to see if I'd entered. I have but all my predictions have apparently been reversed... I certainly don't think Villa will beat Manchester City 2-1.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,563

    ydoethur said:

    Who's the worse person to have working in Downing Street: Seumas Milne or Dominic Cummings?

    That's a bit like asking who's the stupider Cambridge graduate out of Richard Burgon or Amanda Spielman.
    Ooh, I know the answer.

    Sir, sir, me, me! Burgon!
    1) I never realised you were Richard Burgon. You always seemed quite intelligent.

    2) I'd actually give it to Spielman, as so far as I know Burgon has never suggested 14 year old girls being blackmailed into taking nude selfies isn't a safeguarding issue.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,717
    Sandpit said:

    Undeclared pools in France uncovered by AI technology

    The discovery of thousands of undeclared private swimming pools in France has provided an unexpected windfall for French tax authorities.

    Following an experiment using artificial intelligence (AI), more than 20,000 hidden pools were discovered.

    They have amassed some €10m ($9.9; £8.5m) in revenue, French media is reporting.

    Pools can lead to higher property taxes because they boost property value, and must be declared under French law.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62717599

    Since rcs was asking for more AI stories.

    I would argue that was much more a case of machine learning than AI. But as AI is sexier, people use it for everything.
    You mean that, if you take old fashioned reporting trend analysis but call it “AI blockchain”, all of a sudden it becomes a hundred times more marketable?
    And Leon will be talking about how the trend analysis is going to take over the world. ;)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,563

    Totally agree, it isn't just doleys and plebs who will need support, some of us face the choice of heating or cancelling our skiing holidays.

    Handouts for only the most vulnerable people will not be enough, senior Tories have said, because Britain faces a “social and economic catastrophe” without swift intervention on energy bills.

    Conservatives MPs have said that the candidate who becomes prime minister should support the middle class as well as people on the lowest incomes.

    Victoria Prentis, an environment minister, said yesterday that “many, many different plans” were being worked on. “What we need to do is not necessarily help everybody in the country in the same way,” she said.

    However, the new prime minister is likely to face calls from within the party to immediately extend support.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tories-fear-limiting-help-on-energy-bills-will-lead-to-catastrophe-77cl50958

    I thought you'd fixed until next summer.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 105,386
    edited August 2022
    ydoethur said:

    Totally agree, it isn't just doleys and plebs who will need support, some of us face the choice of heating or cancelling our skiing holidays.

    Handouts for only the most vulnerable people will not be enough, senior Tories have said, because Britain faces a “social and economic catastrophe” without swift intervention on energy bills.

    Conservatives MPs have said that the candidate who becomes prime minister should support the middle class as well as people on the lowest incomes.

    Victoria Prentis, an environment minister, said yesterday that “many, many different plans” were being worked on. “What we need to do is not necessarily help everybody in the country in the same way,” she said.

    However, the new prime minister is likely to face calls from within the party to immediately extend support.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tories-fear-limiting-help-on-energy-bills-will-lead-to-catastrophe-77cl50958

    I thought you'd fixed until next summer.
    I have.

    My comment was slightly tongue in cheek.

    I was reading up what the energy cap could be when my fixed rate deal ends next summer 😱😱😱😱😱
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,563

    ydoethur said:

    Totally agree, it isn't just doleys and plebs who will need support, some of us face the choice of heating or cancelling our skiing holidays.

    Handouts for only the most vulnerable people will not be enough, senior Tories have said, because Britain faces a “social and economic catastrophe” without swift intervention on energy bills.

    Conservatives MPs have said that the candidate who becomes prime minister should support the middle class as well as people on the lowest incomes.

    Victoria Prentis, an environment minister, said yesterday that “many, many different plans” were being worked on. “What we need to do is not necessarily help everybody in the country in the same way,” she said.

    However, the new prime minister is likely to face calls from within the party to immediately extend support.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tories-fear-limiting-help-on-energy-bills-will-lead-to-catastrophe-77cl50958

    I thought you'd fixed until next summer.
    I have.

    My comment was slightly tongue in cheek.

    I was reading up what the energy cap will be when my fixed rate deal ends next summer 😱😱😱😱😱
    Depending on other factors, of course.
  • Sandpit said:

    Energy crisis: Early kick-off for football could cut floodlight costs

    Football bosses are to discuss whether matches in the lower divisions could kick off earlier to save money on floodlights, among measures to deal with rising energy costs.

    The English Football League, which runs the three divisions below the Premier League, will discuss the energy crisis at its board meeting next month with some clubs fearing their costs will rise by hundreds of thousands of pounds.

    It comes as pub and brewing companies urged the government to act in order to avoid “real and serious irreversible” damage to the sector.

    Andy Holt, chairman of the League One side Accrington Stanley, told The Times: “We don’t use a lot compared with some clubs but our bills are going to quadruple. It’s going to be hundreds of thousands of pounds a year and it’s going to be a disaster in the winter.

    “It’s floodlights, heating, electricity in the concession areas, everything. The only way we can cover the extra costs is by raising the price of tickets — but our fans will be struggling themselves with the energy price rises, this is Accrington not Belgravia. Their available income will be going down so can we really raise prices?”

    He added: “I’m not sure moving the kick-off earlier would have much impact — we still need to heat the stadium in winter.” Holt said floodlights had to be used for TV purposes if the natural light was dull.

    A League Two club chairman, who asked not to be named, said he would raise the idea of earlier kick-offs with the EFL. Football clubs are vulnerable because there is no price cap on businesses, with fears some could go into administration.

    An EFL spokesman said: “The league is currently engaging with clubs on the impact of rising energy prices on their operations. This does include floodlight usage and cost through the winter months.

    “Once the position is established, the matter will be discussed with the board at its next meeting in September.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/energy-crisis-early-kick-off-for-football-could-cut-floodlight-costs-xjq5glsmx

    Good. This was mentioned early on, have football and rugby kick off at 1pm rather than 3pm, so they don’t need the floodlights. Modern TV cameras work effectively in pretty dark environments.

    There’s a shortage of gas, and demand for power has to be reduced irrespective of price. The only arguments are where that reduction can occur without too much economic damage.
    Is that right? Aiui there is no shortage of gas here yet. The problem is the high price of electricity which is in large part due to the cost of gas (and partly to a pricing formula HMG should perhaps take another look at). That is not to dispute that we do need to reduce power consumption and that a lot of businesses as well as people will likely go under.
  • A tiny move back to Rishi but still 20/1 vs 1/20.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.05 Liz Truss 95%
    21 Rishi Sunak 5%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.05 Liz Truss 95%
    21 Rishi Sunak 5%

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.05 Liz Truss 95%
    18 Rishi Sunak 6%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.05 Liz Truss 95%
    18.5 Rishi Sunak 5%
  • eekeek Posts: 22,056

    Undeclared pools in France uncovered by AI technology

    The discovery of thousands of undeclared private swimming pools in France has provided an unexpected windfall for French tax authorities.

    Following an experiment using artificial intelligence (AI), more than 20,000 hidden pools were discovered.

    They have amassed some €10m ($9.9; £8.5m) in revenue, French media is reporting.

    Pools can lead to higher property taxes because they boost property value, and must be declared under French law.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62717599

    Since rcs was asking for more AI stories.

    I would argue that was much more a case of machine learning than AI. But as AI is sexier, people use it for everything.
    It is quite unimpressive because it is just automated photo-reconnaissance of the sort people were doing in the First World War, but sped up a bit by computer. It's not that the French supercomputer (or Google) figured out that people buying 5% more detergent in summer were washing swimming costumes.

    ETA it is probably more interesting as an example for future Chancellors of something new to tax.
    Not really - our residential tax system isn’t gradual enough to make any difference and a pool would result in the appropriate flag for revaluation to kick off when the house was sold.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,847
    Betting Post

    Football: decided to back Leeds at 2.2 to beat Everton (home advantage plus generally playing well this season, with Everton struggling).
  • Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Germany bans illuminated advertisements and shop displays between 10pm and 6am, in order to save electricity.
    https://www.theregister.com/2022/08/29/germany_digital_ad_display_shutdown/

    It's a good idea. Lighting between midnight and 5 has always struck me as an unnecessary waste of energy.
    I was told very clearly yesterday that this is a bad idea. Instead we should wait for the advertising agency to use its good business sense and turn off its adverts for the greater good.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,563

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Germany bans illuminated advertisements and shop displays between 10pm and 6am, in order to save electricity.
    https://www.theregister.com/2022/08/29/germany_digital_ad_display_shutdown/

    It's a good idea. Lighting between midnight and 5 has always struck me as an unnecessary waste of energy.
    I was told very clearly yesterday that this is a bad idea. Instead we should wait for the advertising agency to use its good business sense and turn off its adverts for the greater good.
    If an advertising agency gave a flying fuck about the greater good, it wouldn't be an advertising agency.
  • Totally agree, it isn't just doleys and plebs who will need support, some of us face the choice of heating or cancelling our skiing holidays.

    Handouts for only the most vulnerable people will not be enough, senior Tories have said, because Britain faces a “social and economic catastrophe” without swift intervention on energy bills.

    Conservatives MPs have said that the candidate who becomes prime minister should support the middle class as well as people on the lowest incomes.

    Victoria Prentis, an environment minister, said yesterday that “many, many different plans” were being worked on. “What we need to do is not necessarily help everybody in the country in the same way,” she said.

    However, the new prime minister is likely to face calls from within the party to immediately extend support.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tories-fear-limiting-help-on-energy-bills-will-lead-to-catastrophe-77cl50958

    This doesn't go far enough. People who can afford skiing holidays deserve support - after all they have worked very hard and are the right kind of people. Targeted support at them would encourage the lower order workshy to get a better job and stop lollygagging about at work. Thats the Conservative way.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 37,530
    edited August 2022

    Interesting from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/08/29/britains-open-door-immigration-entirely-changes-economics-brexit/

    As of next week, Britain will have the most ethnically-diverse cabinet of any major country in the OECD bloc. That will be apparent to the world.

    Less understood is that the new Prime Minister will also preside over one of the most liberal and open immigration systems among the developed economies, and considerably more open in key respects than the large EU states.

    This is so far removed from the catechism of the global intelligentsia – let us call it the New York Times view – that many will simply refuse to acknowledge the facts.

    Whatever may have been said by certain people during the Referendum, and whatever Theresa May thought Brexit was supposed to mean, the actual regime established by Boris Johnson for work visas and the resettlement of legal refugees is strikingly expansionary. Furthermore, it has been obvious for some time that this is the direction of travel.

    “I am delighted to say that I have been proved wrong. When it comes to work visas, we have one of the most liberal immigration systems in the world,” said Professor Jonathan Portes from the London School of Economics.

    Just read that article myself. Very good indeed. Even if one disagrees with AEP's conclusions (which I don't) he makes some very good points about the assumptions made by think tanks prior to Brexit being proved by reality to be fundamentally flawed. I was not aware of the numbers involved but given my views on immigration I am delighted that the fears perpetuated by many supposed authorities have turned out to be false.
    Tbh I thought everyone knew Boris was pro-immigration, he said it often enough, and
    also that immigration had increased. The standard pb Brexiteer defence has been that we are now, post-Brexit, free to choose.
    Anyone with half a brain knew immigration would not fall post-Brexit. All that’s happened is that UK citizens and businesses have lost significant freedoms and rights they previously enjoyed.

    Some of us think that it’s worth it. Some of us don’t. I’m in the latter category, but realise we are where we are and there’s no going back.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,042
    Russians are getting desperate.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/home
    Why Putin’s Henchmen Are Dying for the Debut of “My Son Hunter”

    Russian state TV host said, “We’re waiting for the premiere and hoping for a big success in the United States, to bring our beloved Trump back into power.”
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 43,306

    On Truss running away from Robinson, it seems pretty obvious to me that she never intended to do the interview. She fibbed when she said she would. She agreed to make fear of scrutiny go away as an issue during the contest with Sunak. She wasn’t smart enough to realise she would create a foundational “frit” narrative for her time as PM.

    Everything Truss says and does indicates she is woefully out of her depth.

    Nice spin: “Truss cleverly closed down an issue when it mattered and this proves she is out of her depth.”
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,376

    Interesting from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/08/29/britains-open-door-immigration-entirely-changes-economics-brexit/

    As of next week, Britain will have the most ethnically-diverse cabinet of any major country in the OECD bloc. That will be apparent to the world.

    Less understood is that the new Prime Minister will also preside over one of the most liberal and open immigration systems among the developed economies, and considerably more open in key respects than the large EU states.

    This is so far removed from the catechism of the global intelligentsia – let us call it the New York Times view – that many will simply refuse to acknowledge the facts.

    Whatever may have been said by certain people during the Referendum, and whatever Theresa May thought Brexit was supposed to mean, the actual regime established by Boris Johnson for work visas and the resettlement of legal refugees is strikingly expansionary. Furthermore, it has been obvious for some time that this is the direction of travel.

    “I am delighted to say that I have been proved wrong. When it comes to work visas, we have one of the most liberal immigration systems in the world,” said Professor Jonathan Portes from the London School of Economics.

    Just read that article myself. Very good indeed. Even if one disagrees with AEP's conclusions (which I don't) he makes some very good points about the assumptions made by think tanks prior to Brexit being proved by reality to be fundamentally flawed. I was not aware of the numbers involved but given my views on immigration I am delighted that the fears perpetuated by many supposed authorities have turned out to be false.
    Tbh I thought everyone knew Boris was pro-immigration, he said it often enough, and
    also that immigration had increased. The standard pb Brexiteer defence has been that we are now, post-Brexit, free to choose.
    Anyone with half a brain knew immigration would not fall post-Brexit. All that’s happened is that UK citizens and businesses have lost significant freedoms and rights they previously enjoyed.
    As is obvious with Brexit, the benefit is not conferred by leaving itself, but by the Government being able to control the borders if it so wishes.
  • On Truss running away from Robinson, it seems pretty obvious to me that she never intended to do the interview. She fibbed when she said she would. She agreed to make fear of scrutiny go away as an issue during the contest with Sunak. She wasn’t smart enough to realise she would create a foundational “frit” narrative for her time as PM.

    Everything Truss says and does indicates she is woefully out of her depth.

    Not just frit but unreliable as well, given her policy reversals during the campaign. If Liz Truss is not careful, she might even inherit Boris's reputation for downright lies.
  • On Truss running away from Robinson, it seems pretty obvious to me that she never intended to do the interview. She fibbed when she said she would. She agreed to make fear of scrutiny go away as an issue during the contest with Sunak. She wasn’t smart enough to realise she would create a foundational “frit” narrative for her time as PM.

    Everything Truss says and does indicates she is woefully out of her depth.

    Nice spin: “Truss cleverly closed down an issue when it mattered and this proves she is out of her depth.”
    How has she closed this down? The media will just go "never mind" that she's frit and refuses to be interviewed? Piers Morgan chased Boris into a Fridge, they didn't let him forget it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,042
    edited August 2022

    On Truss running away from Robinson, it seems pretty obvious to me that she never intended to do the interview. She fibbed when she said she would. She agreed to make fear of scrutiny go away as an issue during the contest with Sunak. She wasn’t smart enough to realise she would create a foundational “frit” narrative for her time as PM.

    Everything Truss says and does indicates she is woefully out of her depth.

    Nice spin: “Truss cleverly closed down an issue when it mattered and this proves she is out of her depth.”
    What issue has she closed down ?


    Unless you mean whether she's more open and honest than Boris ?
    Though I'd say the jury is still out on that, just.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 43,306

    On Truss running away from Robinson, it seems pretty obvious to me that she never intended to do the interview. She fibbed when she said she would. She agreed to make fear of scrutiny go away as an issue during the contest with Sunak. She wasn’t smart enough to realise she would create a foundational “frit” narrative for her time as PM.

    Everything Truss says and does indicates she is woefully out of her depth.

    Nice spin: “Truss cleverly closed down an issue when it mattered and this proves she is out of her depth.”
    How has she closed this down? The media will just go "never mind" that she's frit and refuses to be interviewed? Piers Morgan chased Boris into a Fridge, they didn't let him forget it.
    Being “chased into a fridge” is a memorable image. Cancelling an interview when the news cycle is about to move on isn’t.
  • On Truss running away from Robinson, it seems pretty obvious to me that she never intended to do the interview. She fibbed when she said she would. She agreed to make fear of scrutiny go away as an issue during the contest with Sunak. She wasn’t smart enough to realise she would create a foundational “frit” narrative for her time as PM.

    Everything Truss says and does indicates she is woefully out of her depth.

    Not just frit but unreliable as well, given her policy reversals during the campaign. If Liz Truss is not careful, she might even inherit Boris's reputation for downright lies.
    She has repeated her position on energy eleventy times this campaign. Big_G and a few others clinging onto the hope that she is a massive liar and will do an abrupt u-turn. That won't save her even if she does stump up the £100bn+ needed. She'd have let millions suffer for no reason and shown herself up to be utterly untrussworthy.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,042

    Totally agree, it isn't just doleys and plebs who will need support, some of us face the choice of heating or cancelling our skiing holidays.

    Just put on your skiware at home.
    Under the duvet, like @Big_G_NorthWales .
  • Totally agree, it isn't just doleys and plebs who will need support, some of us face the choice of heating or cancelling our skiing holidays.

    Just put on your skiware at home.
    I've been on two skiing holidays in my life, once as a schoolboy, once 15 years ago, mostly for the location.

    I am to skiing what I am to modesty.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,042
    High-ranking Ukrainian quisling official murdered in occupied Kherson Oblast

    Oleksii Kovaliov, a Ukrainian MP who was the quisling "Dep Head of Kherson Oblast Administration for Agriculture," was shot dead in Hola Prystan. Earlier, he survived car bombing

    https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1564499586726727681
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Energy crisis: Early kick-off for football could cut floodlight costs

    Football bosses are to discuss whether matches in the lower divisions could kick off earlier to save money on floodlights, among measures to deal with rising energy costs.

    The English Football League, which runs the three divisions below the Premier League, will discuss the energy crisis at its board meeting next month with some clubs fearing their costs will rise by hundreds of thousands of pounds.

    It comes as pub and brewing companies urged the government to act in order to avoid “real and serious irreversible” damage to the sector.

    Andy Holt, chairman of the League One side Accrington Stanley, told The Times: “We don’t use a lot compared with some clubs but our bills are going to quadruple. It’s going to be hundreds of thousands of pounds a year and it’s going to be a disaster in the winter.

    “It’s floodlights, heating, electricity in the concession areas, everything. The only way we can cover the extra costs is by raising the price of tickets — but our fans will be struggling themselves with the energy price rises, this is Accrington not Belgravia. Their available income will be going down so can we really raise prices?”

    He added: “I’m not sure moving the kick-off earlier would have much impact — we still need to heat the stadium in winter.” Holt said floodlights had to be used for TV purposes if the natural light was dull.

    A League Two club chairman, who asked not to be named, said he would raise the idea of earlier kick-offs with the EFL. Football clubs are vulnerable because there is no price cap on businesses, with fears some could go into administration.

    An EFL spokesman said: “The league is currently engaging with clubs on the impact of rising energy prices on their operations. This does include floodlight usage and cost through the winter months.

    “Once the position is established, the matter will be discussed with the board at its next meeting in September.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/energy-crisis-early-kick-off-for-football-could-cut-floodlight-costs-xjq5glsmx

    Football is played in heated stadia? Well fuck that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,042

    Totally agree, it isn't just doleys and plebs who will need support, some of us face the choice of heating or cancelling our skiing holidays.

    Just put on your skiware at home.
    I've been on two skiing holidays in my life, once as a schoolboy, once 15 years ago, mostly for the location.

    I am to skiing what I am to modesty.
    Out of practice.

  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,317
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    Interesting from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/08/29/britains-open-door-immigration-entirely-changes-economics-brexit/

    As of next week, Britain will have the most ethnically-diverse cabinet of any major country in the OECD bloc. That will be apparent to the world.

    Less understood is that the new Prime Minister will also preside over one of the most liberal and open immigration systems among the developed economies, and considerably more open in key respects than the large EU states.

    This is so far removed from the catechism of the global intelligentsia – let us call it the New York Times view – that many will simply refuse to acknowledge the facts.

    Whatever may have been said by certain people during the Referendum, and whatever Theresa May thought Brexit was supposed to mean, the actual regime established by Boris Johnson for work visas and the resettlement of legal refugees is strikingly expansionary. Furthermore, it has been obvious for some time that this is the direction of travel.

    “I am delighted to say that I have been proved wrong. When it comes to work visas, we have one of the most liberal immigration systems in the world,” said Professor Jonathan Portes from the London School of Economics.

    Legal immigration is a very different beast to illegal immigration and is arguably being managed reasonably well.
    I think we do a reasonable job with legal migration. Some bits we do poorly: such as poor @Sandpit, who can't bring his Ukrainian wife back to the UK, because she doesn't earn enough. Others, like tech worker visas we do a pretty good job with.
    Not because she doesn’t earn enough, but because *I* don’t earn enough to support her. Which of course I do, just not in the UK so it doesn’t count. Ironically, under the new system, she can probably apply in her own right and get a better result.

    It’s moot now anyway, we are buying a place out here and will make a few more years of it.
    As I understand it the policy is that - if you are an expat - even if you can earn a decent wage in the UK, you cannot move back to the UK with a foreign spouse unless they can get a working visa in their own right. This seems to be a legacy of the 'reduce net immigration by any means possible' policy of the early 2010's. It should be reformed to apply a similar income test to that which applies to existing residents of the UK applying for spouse visas.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,042
    Wasn't someone arguing a while back that Biden would be soft on Taiwan ?

    Biden administration to ask Congress to approve $1.1B arms sale to Taiwan
    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/29/biden-taiwan-arms-sales-congress-00054126
This discussion has been closed.