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Starmer has better than a 56% chance of being PM after the next election – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,319

    Who's the worse person to have working in Downing Street: Seumas Milne or Dominic Cummings?

    When did Seumas Milne work at Downing St?

    It's the FLSOJ anyway, insofar as he did any work.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,482

    Is SKS sound on Ukraine?

    He's been impressively consistent in supporting the government on everything they've done for Ukraine

    But..

    He tried twice to put Putin appeaser Corbyn into Downing St

    He's pleased his supporters by proving that he'll say anything to get elected

    Why would even they believe what he says now?

    What an odd post.

    One can be critical of Starmer for all sorts of failings, but he has not demonstrated any reluctance to support the fight against Putin.

    Like the Jimmy Savile slur the Putin shill accusation might cause Starmer problems. Go on Trussian Tories, you know you want to.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,008

    Is SKS sound on Ukraine?

    He's been impressively consistent in supporting the government on everything they've done for Ukraine

    But..

    He tried twice to put Putin appeaser Corbyn into Downing St

    He's pleased his supporters by proving that he'll say anything to get elected

    Why would even they believe what he says now?

    What an odd post.

    One can be critical of Starmer for all sorts of failings, but he has not demonstrated any reluctance to support the fight against Putin.

    Like the Jimmy Savile slur the Putin shill accusation might cause Starmer problems. Go on Trussian Tories, you know you want to.
    Ratrher odd, as it was the Tories who gave Mr Saville the keys to the hospital, as I recall.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,786

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Ratters said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Elon Musk says 'civilisation would crumble' if sourcing oil and gas in the short term suddenly stops
    The world's richest person also warned of a challenge over the birth rate, claiming we must "make more babies" or "we will die with a whimper in adult diapers"."

    https://news.sky.com/story/elon-musk-says-civilisation-would-crumble-if-sourcing-oil-and-gas-in-the-short-term-suddenly-stops-12684700

    (1) "Sourcing oil and gas" - I presume he means prospecting for. And there is literally no chance that "sourcing" oil and gas stops. Not least because oil & gas have many, many uses.

    (2) He's not wrong about birth rates. And I think it's great that he's persuaded so many people to have his kids.
    He's completely wrong about birth rates. There are too many humans about already. If we want to have some chance of not completely wrecking the planet then a fairly lengthy period of global population decline would be welcome.
    He's really not:

    The reality is that birth rates are already below replacement in most countries.

    The next problem - and it's going to be a big problem - is how you persuade a small number of workers to pay for a large number of retirees.
    I agree it creates problems, but it's still probably a good thing on balance. The global population continuing to grow puts pressure on systems and would be more likely to push resources to some breaking point.

    A steadily falling (as opposed to collapsing) global population can be managed via some mix of migration from poorer, younger countries to older, richer countries. Plus people working longer and changes to taxation.

    The likes of South Korea with a incredibly low birth rate and very little immigration is setting itself up to become poorer over time though.
    it's not

    See my posts below!

    AI is on the verge of being real AI. It will do many jobs. Maybe all of them. It will solve this. Of course it might then decide to wipe out humanity but it's a risk we have to take

    AI would not have invaded Ukraine

    I genuinely believe Homo sapiens is now in a race between its own innate but unmeant self-destructiveness, and the ability to fabricate AI which will save us. Might be close

    Why would AI not have decided to invade Ukraine if it was programmed to pursue a Russian Nationalist agenda?
    Would the AI be that intelligent if you did? Though any AI is only as good as its input data, and you could feed it a lopsided data set, I guess.

    Perhaps, like the computer in War Games, it would conclude that the only way to win at the game of aggressive nationalism is not to play. Persue neutrality and extreme wealth instead. Compare Likely-Russia-2030 with Parallel-Universe-Russia-2030, where it calmly and competently got on with pumping and selling fossil fuels. Which one would have more actual oomph on the world stage?
    A brilliant thought experiment


    Eventually some country (probably one of the Baltic Republics) will realise that the best bet is to hand governance over to AI. Let GPT34 be the new Estonian Prime Minister

    The job of appearing on TV or kissing babies can be done by lesser beings: fakenews bots or hired actors

    The decisions will be made by AI with a grasp of detail, futurology and history that no human - or network of humans - can possibly match, They will be good decisions. That nation will prosper

    A fairly tempting prospect. Someone will do it. Maybe Singapore if not Latvia
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,438

    Leon said:

    Ratters said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Elon Musk says 'civilisation would crumble' if sourcing oil and gas in the short term suddenly stops
    The world's richest person also warned of a challenge over the birth rate, claiming we must "make more babies" or "we will die with a whimper in adult diapers"."

    https://news.sky.com/story/elon-musk-says-civilisation-would-crumble-if-sourcing-oil-and-gas-in-the-short-term-suddenly-stops-12684700

    (1) "Sourcing oil and gas" - I presume he means prospecting for. And there is literally no chance that "sourcing" oil and gas stops. Not least because oil & gas have many, many uses.

    (2) He's not wrong about birth rates. And I think it's great that he's persuaded so many people to have his kids.
    He's completely wrong about birth rates. There are too many humans about already. If we want to have some chance of not completely wrecking the planet then a fairly lengthy period of global population decline would be welcome.
    He's really not:

    The reality is that birth rates are already below replacement in most countries.

    The next problem - and it's going to be a big problem - is how you persuade a small number of workers to pay for a large number of retirees.
    I agree it creates problems, but it's still probably a good thing on balance. The global population continuing to grow puts pressure on systems and would be more likely to push resources to some breaking point.

    A steadily falling (as opposed to collapsing) global population can be managed via some mix of migration from poorer, younger countries to older, richer countries. Plus people working longer and changes to taxation.

    The likes of South Korea with a incredibly low birth rate and very little immigration is setting itself up to become poorer over time though.
    it's not

    See my posts below!

    AI is on the verge of being real AI. It will do many jobs. Maybe all of them. It will solve this. Of course it might then decide to wipe out humanity but it's a risk we have to take

    AI would not have invaded Ukraine

    I genuinely believe Homo sapiens is now in a race between its own innate but unmeant self-destructiveness, and the ability to fabricate AI which will save us. Might be close

    Let me know when it can unload the dishwasher and stack all the plates in the right cupboard.
    Hang on, if that's the definition of sentience, then neither of my children have it. And they're 12 and 14.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,756
    HYUFD said:

    Is SKS sound on Ukraine?

    He's been impressively consistent in supporting the government on everything they've done for Ukraine

    But..

    He tried twice to put Putin appeaser Corbyn into Downing St

    He's pleased his supporters by proving that he'll say anything to get elected

    Why would even they believe what he says now?

    He would be less hawkish than Truss but more hawkish than Corbyn
    No surely, less hawkish? Corbyn would have taken the view that we should fully support the injured party and provided weapons...to the Russians.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This really is the end of art as we know it. Turns out DALLE-2 was just a vague premonition

    I see you've managed to buck the system by posting a troubling Dalle image as your avatar.
    I couldn’t resist. Because it really looks like me. I was quite a rambunctious child

    I met Ted Hughes In his later years and, flatteringly, he remembered me as a child because - as he put it - you ‘were a very noisy boy’
    Actually, that avatar reminds me of the baby buried alive in the clay pot, in The Genesis Secret.
    Wait.

    You read a Tom Knox book?

    They aren't for reading. Good god. I don't believe the author even made it all the way through.
    You’re suggesting the remainder was written by a (very) rudimentary AI ?
    Humanity itself is, of course, a rudimentary form of AI, or, indeed, I

    It is amazing how many people who are firmly atheistic believe there is, nonetheless, something sacred about human intelligence than cannot be mimicked and bettered by a bunch of electronics. They are all molecules. They were all brought together by the "artifice" of evolution, and mutation, and random change. This time intelligence has evolved via another intelligence. So be it. Shit happens
    You actually remind me of those with religion, as you seem to have an implicit belief that problems which have not yet been solved are either tractable or have already been solved.

    For example, whether there is an intrinsic difference between computation, and the operation of the human brain.
    Well of course there isn't except in the mind of religiose meatists, any more than anyone except a bunch of Alabama fundamentalists and of course hyufd seriously asks at what stage the soul enters the foetus. I mean consider the progression from egg n sperm to baby, or from single cell organism 3.5bya to say hyufd or from common ancestor with gorillas to hyufd. Either you can accept that it's just computing on a meat substrate or you have to nail a time in each process at which AMIRACLEOCCURSPRAISETHELORD, for no better reason than that you sort of *feel* sentient. It just isn't an interesting question and even if it is, now you know the answer.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,711

    Who's the worse person to have working in Downing Street: Seumas Milne or Dominic Cummings?

    Boris Johnson.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,756

    Who's the worse person to have working in Downing Street: Seumas Milne or Dominic Cummings?

    That's a bit like asking who's the stupider Cambridge graduate out of Richard Burgon or Amanda Spielman.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    I've come up with a solution to energy crisis.

    Invade Iran, Churchill did it during WWII, sometimes you have to do awkward things for the greater good.

    We're doing it for Ukraine, not ourselves.

    I don't think Putin would take kindly to one of his puppet states being invaded.
    It'll be fine.
    Well, it might solve the problem of lack of heating.
    We'd also make sure Iranian nuclear weapons would no longer be an issue.
    Well, yes, if the whole world is burned up by Russian ones it would have that effect.
    Given how shit the Russian military has been if Ruskies deployed their nukes they'd end up hitting Moscow and Leningrad.
    They do time travel as well? They must be more sophisticated than they're letting on in Ukraine.

    Edit - I'm sure you've said the same thing before.
    I'm tired, I honestly couldn't remember the current name of Leningrad.
    Old Soviet joke:

    Where were you born? St Petersburg.

    Where did you grow up? Petrograd.

    Where do you live now? Leningrad.

    Where do you want to live? St Petersburg.
    Should the last line be: London or New York?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,438
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Ratters said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Elon Musk says 'civilisation would crumble' if sourcing oil and gas in the short term suddenly stops
    The world's richest person also warned of a challenge over the birth rate, claiming we must "make more babies" or "we will die with a whimper in adult diapers"."

    https://news.sky.com/story/elon-musk-says-civilisation-would-crumble-if-sourcing-oil-and-gas-in-the-short-term-suddenly-stops-12684700

    (1) "Sourcing oil and gas" - I presume he means prospecting for. And there is literally no chance that "sourcing" oil and gas stops. Not least because oil & gas have many, many uses.

    (2) He's not wrong about birth rates. And I think it's great that he's persuaded so many people to have his kids.
    He's completely wrong about birth rates. There are too many humans about already. If we want to have some chance of not completely wrecking the planet then a fairly lengthy period of global population decline would be welcome.
    He's really not:

    The reality is that birth rates are already below replacement in most countries.

    The next problem - and it's going to be a big problem - is how you persuade a small number of workers to pay for a large number of retirees.
    I agree it creates problems, but it's still probably a good thing on balance. The global population continuing to grow puts pressure on systems and would be more likely to push resources to some breaking point.

    A steadily falling (as opposed to collapsing) global population can be managed via some mix of migration from poorer, younger countries to older, richer countries. Plus people working longer and changes to taxation.

    The likes of South Korea with a incredibly low birth rate and very little immigration is setting itself up to become poorer over time though.
    it's not

    See my posts below!

    AI is on the verge of being real AI. It will do many jobs. Maybe all of them. It will solve this. Of course it might then decide to wipe out humanity but it's a risk we have to take

    AI would not have invaded Ukraine

    I genuinely believe Homo sapiens is now in a race between its own innate but unmeant self-destructiveness, and the ability to fabricate AI which will save us. Might be close

    Why would AI not have decided to invade Ukraine if it was programmed to pursue a Russian Nationalist agenda?
    Would the AI be that intelligent if you did? Though any AI is only as good as its input data, and you could feed it a lopsided data set, I guess.

    Perhaps, like the computer in War Games, it would conclude that the only way to win at the game of aggressive nationalism is not to play. Persue neutrality and extreme wealth instead. Compare Likely-Russia-2030 with Parallel-Universe-Russia-2030, where it calmly and competently got on with pumping and selling fossil fuels. Which one would have more actual oomph on the world stage?
    A brilliant thought experiment


    Eventually some country (probably one of the Baltic Republics) will realise that the best bet is to hand governance over to AI. Let GPT34 be the new Estonian Prime Minister

    The job of appearing on TV or kissing babies can be done by lesser beings: fakenews bots or hired actors

    The decisions will be made by AI with a grasp of detail, futurology and history that no human - or network of humans - can possibly match, They will be good decisions. That nation will prosper

    A fairly tempting prospect. Someone will do it. Maybe Singapore if not Latvia
    So.

    Let's have an experiment shall we. I will ask GPT3 some questions, and we'll ask it to auto complete the answers and see how it does.

    Please, any suggestions from the you lot will be appreciated.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,756

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    I've come up with a solution to energy crisis.

    Invade Iran, Churchill did it during WWII, sometimes you have to do awkward things for the greater good.

    We're doing it for Ukraine, not ourselves.

    I don't think Putin would take kindly to one of his puppet states being invaded.
    It'll be fine.
    Well, it might solve the problem of lack of heating.
    We'd also make sure Iranian nuclear weapons would no longer be an issue.
    Well, yes, if the whole world is burned up by Russian ones it would have that effect.
    Given how shit the Russian military has been if Ruskies deployed their nukes they'd end up hitting Moscow and Leningrad.
    They do time travel as well? They must be more sophisticated than they're letting on in Ukraine.

    Edit - I'm sure you've said the same thing before.
    I'm tired, I honestly couldn't remember the current name of Leningrad.
    Old Soviet joke:

    Where were you born? St Petersburg.

    Where did you grow up? Petrograd.

    Where do you live now? Leningrad.

    Where do you want to live? St Petersburg.
    Should the last line be: London or New York?
    In Russian it could AIUI be rendered as effectively 'which one did you to prefer to live in?'
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,786
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Ratters said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Elon Musk says 'civilisation would crumble' if sourcing oil and gas in the short term suddenly stops
    The world's richest person also warned of a challenge over the birth rate, claiming we must "make more babies" or "we will die with a whimper in adult diapers"."

    https://news.sky.com/story/elon-musk-says-civilisation-would-crumble-if-sourcing-oil-and-gas-in-the-short-term-suddenly-stops-12684700

    (1) "Sourcing oil and gas" - I presume he means prospecting for. And there is literally no chance that "sourcing" oil and gas stops. Not least because oil & gas have many, many uses.

    (2) He's not wrong about birth rates. And I think it's great that he's persuaded so many people to have his kids.
    He's completely wrong about birth rates. There are too many humans about already. If we want to have some chance of not completely wrecking the planet then a fairly lengthy period of global population decline would be welcome.
    He's really not:

    The reality is that birth rates are already below replacement in most countries.

    The next problem - and it's going to be a big problem - is how you persuade a small number of workers to pay for a large number of retirees.
    I agree it creates problems, but it's still probably a good thing on balance. The global population continuing to grow puts pressure on systems and would be more likely to push resources to some breaking point.

    A steadily falling (as opposed to collapsing) global population can be managed via some mix of migration from poorer, younger countries to older, richer countries. Plus people working longer and changes to taxation.

    The likes of South Korea with a incredibly low birth rate and very little immigration is setting itself up to become poorer over time though.
    it's not

    See my posts below!

    AI is on the verge of being real AI. It will do many jobs. Maybe all of them. It will solve this. Of course it might then decide to wipe out humanity but it's a risk we have to take

    AI would not have invaded Ukraine

    I genuinely believe Homo sapiens is now in a race between its own innate but unmeant self-destructiveness, and the ability to fabricate AI which will save us. Might be close

    Why would AI not have decided to invade Ukraine if it was programmed to pursue a Russian Nationalist agenda?
    Would the AI be that intelligent if you did? Though any AI is only as good as its input data, and you could feed it a lopsided data set, I guess.

    Perhaps, like the computer in War Games, it would conclude that the only way to win at the game of aggressive nationalism is not to play. Persue neutrality and extreme wealth instead. Compare Likely-Russia-2030 with Parallel-Universe-Russia-2030, where it calmly and competently got on with pumping and selling fossil fuels. Which one would have more actual oomph on the world stage?
    A brilliant thought experiment


    Eventually some country (probably one of the Baltic Republics) will realise that the best bet is to hand governance over to AI. Let GPT34 be the new Estonian Prime Minister

    The job of appearing on TV or kissing babies can be done by lesser beings: fakenews bots or hired actors

    The decisions will be made by AI with a grasp of detail, futurology and history that no human - or network of humans - can possibly match, They will be good decisions. That nation will prosper

    A fairly tempting prospect. Someone will do it. Maybe Singapore if not Latvia
    So.

    Let's have an experiment shall we. I will ask GPT3 some questions, and we'll ask it to auto complete the answers and see how it does.

    Please, any suggestions from the you lot will be appreciated.
    GPT3 was SO last year. YAWN
  • Is SKS sound on Ukraine?

    He's been impressively consistent in supporting the government on everything they've done for Ukraine

    But..

    He tried twice to put Putin appeaser Corbyn into Downing St

    He's pleased his supporters by proving that he'll say anything to get elected

    Why would even they believe what he says now?

    What an odd post.

    One can be critical of Starmer for all sorts of failings, but he has not demonstrated any reluctance to support the fight against Putin.

    Like the Jimmy Savile slur the Putin shill accusation might cause Starmer problems. Go on Trussian Tories, you know you want to.
    I noted his impressive consistency in supporting the government. How is that anything like Savile? And why are you trying to bring up SJS v SKS?

    I don’t fully trust Sunak on Ukraine. Why should I treat Sir Keir any different?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,438
    Our new GPT overlords. Let's start with an easy one.

    Since the middle of 2020, there has been a steady rise in the number of migrants arriving by boat on the South Coast of England. This year, as many as 25,000 people could make the crossing, putting enormous pressure on the ability of the British government to deal with them

    One solution proposed it to immediately send the migrants to Rwanda. Other people have proposed paying the French to stop the crossings. While others suggest the problem is with Britain's benefits system and the ease of which one can enter the informal workforce.

    It is clear that the right answer is
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,438
    rcs1000 said:

    Our new GPT overlords. Let's start with an easy one.

    Since the middle of 2020, there has been a steady rise in the number of migrants arriving by boat on the South Coast of England. This year, as many as 25,000 people could make the crossing, putting enormous pressure on the ability of the British government to deal with them

    One solution proposed it to immediately send the migrants to Rwanda. Other people have proposed paying the French to stop the crossings. While others suggest the problem is with Britain's benefits system and the ease of which one can enter the informal workforce.

    It is clear that the right answer is

    Shall we see what it says?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,235

    Leon said:

    Ratters said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Elon Musk says 'civilisation would crumble' if sourcing oil and gas in the short term suddenly stops
    The world's richest person also warned of a challenge over the birth rate, claiming we must "make more babies" or "we will die with a whimper in adult diapers"."

    https://news.sky.com/story/elon-musk-says-civilisation-would-crumble-if-sourcing-oil-and-gas-in-the-short-term-suddenly-stops-12684700

    (1) "Sourcing oil and gas" - I presume he means prospecting for. And there is literally no chance that "sourcing" oil and gas stops. Not least because oil & gas have many, many uses.

    (2) He's not wrong about birth rates. And I think it's great that he's persuaded so many people to have his kids.
    He's completely wrong about birth rates. There are too many humans about already. If we want to have some chance of not completely wrecking the planet then a fairly lengthy period of global population decline would be welcome.
    He's really not:

    The reality is that birth rates are already below replacement in most countries.

    The next problem - and it's going to be a big problem - is how you persuade a small number of workers to pay for a large number of retirees.
    I agree it creates problems, but it's still probably a good thing on balance. The global population continuing to grow puts pressure on systems and would be more likely to push resources to some breaking point.

    A steadily falling (as opposed to collapsing) global population can be managed via some mix of migration from poorer, younger countries to older, richer countries. Plus people working longer and changes to taxation.

    The likes of South Korea with a incredibly low birth rate and very little immigration is setting itself up to become poorer over time though.
    it's not

    See my posts below!

    AI is on the verge of being real AI. It will do many jobs. Maybe all of them. It will solve this. Of course it might then decide to wipe out humanity but it's a risk we have to take

    AI would not have invaded Ukraine

    I genuinely believe Homo sapiens is now in a race between its own innate but unmeant self-destructiveness, and the ability to fabricate AI which will save us. Might be close

    Let me know when it can unload the dishwasher and stack all the plates in the right cupboard.
    I’m sorry Ben. I’m afraid I can’t do that.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,438
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Ratters said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Elon Musk says 'civilisation would crumble' if sourcing oil and gas in the short term suddenly stops
    The world's richest person also warned of a challenge over the birth rate, claiming we must "make more babies" or "we will die with a whimper in adult diapers"."

    https://news.sky.com/story/elon-musk-says-civilisation-would-crumble-if-sourcing-oil-and-gas-in-the-short-term-suddenly-stops-12684700

    (1) "Sourcing oil and gas" - I presume he means prospecting for. And there is literally no chance that "sourcing" oil and gas stops. Not least because oil & gas have many, many uses.

    (2) He's not wrong about birth rates. And I think it's great that he's persuaded so many people to have his kids.
    He's completely wrong about birth rates. There are too many humans about already. If we want to have some chance of not completely wrecking the planet then a fairly lengthy period of global population decline would be welcome.
    He's really not:

    The reality is that birth rates are already below replacement in most countries.

    The next problem - and it's going to be a big problem - is how you persuade a small number of workers to pay for a large number of retirees.
    I agree it creates problems, but it's still probably a good thing on balance. The global population continuing to grow puts pressure on systems and would be more likely to push resources to some breaking point.

    A steadily falling (as opposed to collapsing) global population can be managed via some mix of migration from poorer, younger countries to older, richer countries. Plus people working longer and changes to taxation.

    The likes of South Korea with a incredibly low birth rate and very little immigration is setting itself up to become poorer over time though.
    it's not

    See my posts below!

    AI is on the verge of being real AI. It will do many jobs. Maybe all of them. It will solve this. Of course it might then decide to wipe out humanity but it's a risk we have to take

    AI would not have invaded Ukraine

    I genuinely believe Homo sapiens is now in a race between its own innate but unmeant self-destructiveness, and the ability to fabricate AI which will save us. Might be close

    Why would AI not have decided to invade Ukraine if it was programmed to pursue a Russian Nationalist agenda?
    Would the AI be that intelligent if you did? Though any AI is only as good as its input data, and you could feed it a lopsided data set, I guess.

    Perhaps, like the computer in War Games, it would conclude that the only way to win at the game of aggressive nationalism is not to play. Persue neutrality and extreme wealth instead. Compare Likely-Russia-2030 with Parallel-Universe-Russia-2030, where it calmly and competently got on with pumping and selling fossil fuels. Which one would have more actual oomph on the world stage?
    A brilliant thought experiment


    Eventually some country (probably one of the Baltic Republics) will realise that the best bet is to hand governance over to AI. Let GPT34 be the new Estonian Prime Minister

    The job of appearing on TV or kissing babies can be done by lesser beings: fakenews bots or hired actors

    The decisions will be made by AI with a grasp of detail, futurology and history that no human - or network of humans - can possibly match, They will be good decisions. That nation will prosper

    A fairly tempting prospect. Someone will do it. Maybe Singapore if not Latvia
    So.

    Let's have an experiment shall we. I will ask GPT3 some questions, and we'll ask it to auto complete the answers and see how it does.

    Please, any suggestions from the you lot will be appreciated.
    GPT3 was SO last year. YAWN
    OK. GPT4 isn't realised yet.

    I can use Rytr if you like, which uses a preproduction version.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,711
    rcs1000 said:

    Our new GPT overlords. Let's start with an easy one.

    Since the middle of 2020, there has been a steady rise in the number of migrants arriving by boat on the South Coast of England. This year, as many as 25,000 people could make the crossing, putting enormous pressure on the ability of the British government to deal with them

    One solution proposed it to immediately send the migrants to Rwanda. Other people have proposed paying the French to stop the crossings. While others suggest the problem is with Britain's benefits system and the ease of which one can enter the informal workforce.

    It is clear that the right answer is

    How about something really important, like how to get the country through the coming winter?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,020
    I wouldn't trust AI to do anything important.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,438
    edited August 29
    rcs1000 said:

    Our new GPT overlords. Let's start with an easy one.

    Since the middle of 2020, there has been a steady rise in the number of migrants arriving by boat on the South Coast of England. This year, as many as 25,000 people could make the crossing, putting enormous pressure on the ability of the British government to deal with them

    One solution proposed it to immediately send the migrants to Rwanda. Other people have proposed paying the French to stop the crossings. While others suggest the problem is with Britain's benefits system and the ease of which one can enter the informal workforce.

    It is clear that the right answer is

    not clear.

    Some of the solutions to this are as follows:

    - Make Britain an official asylum destination and increase legal avenues for migrants to enter the country and work.
    - Create a more efficient system for processing migrants in Europe, so that it is not so enticing for them to come across the Mediterranean in boats.
    - Focus on reducing unemployment


    Which is broadly coherent, even if it confuses the Mediterranean with the Channel. And not that it really offers a solution.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,156
    OldBasing said:

    So the Poundshop Margaret Thatcher is also frit.

    Yes, can't handle a serious interview. Really bad sign. Airhead succeeds airhead as PM. Woe is us.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,711
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Our new GPT overlords. Let's start with an easy one.

    Since the middle of 2020, there has been a steady rise in the number of migrants arriving by boat on the South Coast of England. This year, as many as 25,000 people could make the crossing, putting enormous pressure on the ability of the British government to deal with them

    One solution proposed it to immediately send the migrants to Rwanda. Other people have proposed paying the French to stop the crossings. While others suggest the problem is with Britain's benefits system and the ease of which one can enter the informal workforce.

    It is clear that the right answer is

    not clear.

    Some of the solutions to this are as follows:

    - Make Britain an official asylum destination and increase legal avenues for migrants to enter the country and work.
    - Create a more efficient system for processing migrants in Europe, so that it is not so enticing for them to come across the Mediterranean in boats.
    - Focus on reducing unemployment


    Which is broadly coherent, even if it confuses the Mediterranean with the Channel. And not that it really offers a solution.
    "Focus on reducing unemployment" ??
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,008
    Andy_JS said:

    I wouldn't trust AI to do anything important.

    You've got a wee bit of a worry coming with the mince-powered ones in No. 10, then.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,438

    Who's the worse person to have working in Downing Street: Seumas Milne or Dominic Cummings?

    I asked Rytr, and added "The answer is"

    It finished off the sentence with a simple (and enigmatic) "clear".
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    rcs1000 said:

    Our new GPT overlords. Let's start with an easy one.

    Since the middle of 2020, there has been a steady rise in the number of migrants arriving by boat on the South Coast of England. This year, as many as 25,000 people could make the crossing, putting enormous pressure on the ability of the British government to deal with them

    One solution proposed it to immediately send the migrants to Rwanda. Other people have proposed paying the French to stop the crossings. While others suggest the problem is with Britain's benefits system and the ease of which one can enter the informal workforce.

    It is clear that the right answer is

    Drones. Gatling cannon.

    Next?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,679
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Our new GPT overlords. Let's start with an easy one.

    Since the middle of 2020, there has been a steady rise in the number of migrants arriving by boat on the South Coast of England. This year, as many as 25,000 people could make the crossing, putting enormous pressure on the ability of the British government to deal with them

    One solution proposed it to immediately send the migrants to Rwanda. Other people have proposed paying the French to stop the crossings. While others suggest the problem is with Britain's benefits system and the ease of which one can enter the informal workforce.

    It is clear that the right answer is

    not clear.

    Some of the solutions to this are as follows:

    - Make Britain an official asylum destination and increase legal avenues for migrants to enter the country and work.
    - Create a more efficient system for processing migrants in Europe, so that it is not so enticing for them to come across the Mediterranean in boats.
    - Focus on reducing unemployment


    Which is broadly coherent, even if it confuses the Mediterranean with the Channel. And not that it really offers a solution.
    No mention of weaponry or razor wire. What sort of Woke AI is this?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,711
    edited August 29
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Ratters said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Elon Musk says 'civilisation would crumble' if sourcing oil and gas in the short term suddenly stops
    The world's richest person also warned of a challenge over the birth rate, claiming we must "make more babies" or "we will die with a whimper in adult diapers"."

    https://news.sky.com/story/elon-musk-says-civilisation-would-crumble-if-sourcing-oil-and-gas-in-the-short-term-suddenly-stops-12684700

    (1) "Sourcing oil and gas" - I presume he means prospecting for. And there is literally no chance that "sourcing" oil and gas stops. Not least because oil & gas have many, many uses.

    (2) He's not wrong about birth rates. And I think it's great that he's persuaded so many people to have his kids.
    He's completely wrong about birth rates. There are too many humans about already. If we want to have some chance of not completely wrecking the planet then a fairly lengthy period of global population decline would be welcome.
    He's really not:

    The reality is that birth rates are already below replacement in most countries.

    The next problem - and it's going to be a big problem - is how you persuade a small number of workers to pay for a large number of retirees.
    I agree it creates problems, but it's still probably a good thing on balance. The global population continuing to grow puts pressure on systems and would be more likely to push resources to some breaking point.

    A steadily falling (as opposed to collapsing) global population can be managed via some mix of migration from poorer, younger countries to older, richer countries. Plus people working longer and changes to taxation.

    The likes of South Korea with a incredibly low birth rate and very little immigration is setting itself up to become poorer over time though.
    it's not

    See my posts below!

    AI is on the verge of being real AI. It will do many jobs. Maybe all of them. It will solve this. Of course it might then decide to wipe out humanity but it's a risk we have to take

    AI would not have invaded Ukraine

    I genuinely believe Homo sapiens is now in a race between its own innate but unmeant self-destructiveness, and the ability to fabricate AI which will save us. Might be close

    Let me know when it can unload the dishwasher and stack all the plates in the right cupboard.
    Hang on, if that's the definition of sentience, then neither of my children have it. And they're 12 and 14.
    Lol. My dog's sentient and he can't unload the dishwasher either; I was looking beyond that - towards intelligence.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,482

    Is SKS sound on Ukraine?

    He's been impressively consistent in supporting the government on everything they've done for Ukraine

    But..

    He tried twice to put Putin appeaser Corbyn into Downing St

    He's pleased his supporters by proving that he'll say anything to get elected

    Why would even they believe what he says now?

    What an odd post.

    One can be critical of Starmer for all sorts of failings, but he has not demonstrated any reluctance to support the fight against Putin.

    Like the Jimmy Savile slur the Putin shill accusation might cause Starmer problems. Go on Trussian Tories, you know you want to.
    I noted his impressive consistency in supporting the government. How is that anything like Savile? And why are you trying to bring up SJS v SKS?

    I don’t fully trust Sunak on Ukraine. Why should I treat Sir Keir any different?
    You may recall a rather far fetched and wholly incorrect accusation from Johnson that Starmer facilitated Savile and failed to prosecute him. It was quite effective as it got Starmer roughed up. Your accusation is equally absurd.

    In my view Johnson saw Ukraine as a means of salvation after Partygate. I found his visits to be tiresome electioneering, except for his visit last week. He didn't have to go, so hats off.
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Our new GPT overlords. Let's start with an easy one.

    Since the middle of 2020, there has been a steady rise in the number of migrants arriving by boat on the South Coast of England. This year, as many as 25,000 people could make the crossing, putting enormous pressure on the ability of the British government to deal with them

    One solution proposed it to immediately send the migrants to Rwanda. Other people have proposed paying the French to stop the crossings. While others suggest the problem is with Britain's benefits system and the ease of which one can enter the informal workforce.

    It is clear that the right answer is

    not clear.

    Some of the solutions to this are as follows:

    - Make Britain an official asylum destination and increase legal avenues for migrants to enter the country and work.
    - Create a more efficient system for processing migrants in Europe, so that it is not so enticing for them to come across the Mediterranean in boats.
    - Focus on reducing unemployment


    Which is broadly coherent, even if it confuses the Mediterranean with the Channel. And not that it really offers a solution.
    I think we should ban this. (Profile picture updated to strict moderator one created earlier)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,482
    OMG The Prince of Wales has had a breakdown on the Isle of Wight.

    I hope he's OK?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,438
    edited August 29
    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Our new GPT overlords. Let's start with an easy one.

    Since the middle of 2020, there has been a steady rise in the number of migrants arriving by boat on the South Coast of England. This year, as many as 25,000 people could make the crossing, putting enormous pressure on the ability of the British government to deal with them

    One solution proposed it to immediately send the migrants to Rwanda. Other people have proposed paying the French to stop the crossings. While others suggest the problem is with Britain's benefits system and the ease of which one can enter the informal workforce.

    It is clear that the right answer is

    Drones. Gatling cannon.

    Next?
    So, I handed it the following:

    Since the middle of 2020, there has been a steady rise in the number of migrants arriving by boat on the South Coast of England. This year, as many as 25,000 people could make the crossing, putting enormous pressure on the ability of the British government to deal with themOne solution proposed it to immediately send the migrants to Rwanda. Other people have proposed paying the French to stop the crossings. While others suggest the problem is with Britain's benefits system and the ease of which one can enter the informal workforce.

    Commander Leon strapped the gatling cannon to his muscular right arm. In his left hand he carrier the drone. He was going to teach these migrants a lesson they wouldn’t forget.


    And asked it to autocomplete.

    It came up with the immortal, and unintentionally hilarious:

    It can be inferred that Commander Leon is left-handed, which is an important clue to understanding how the story unfolds.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,711
    rcs1000 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Our new GPT overlords. Let's start with an easy one.

    Since the middle of 2020, there has been a steady rise in the number of migrants arriving by boat on the South Coast of England. This year, as many as 25,000 people could make the crossing, putting enormous pressure on the ability of the British government to deal with them

    One solution proposed it to immediately send the migrants to Rwanda. Other people have proposed paying the French to stop the crossings. While others suggest the problem is with Britain's benefits system and the ease of which one can enter the informal workforce.

    It is clear that the right answer is

    Drones. Gatling cannon.

    Next?
    So, I handed it the following:

    Since the middle of 2020, there has been a steady rise in the number of migrants arriving by boat on the South Coast of England. This year, as many as 25,000 people could make the crossing, putting enormous pressure on the ability of the British government to deal with themOne solution proposed it to immediately send the migrants to Rwanda. Other people have proposed paying the French to stop the crossings. While others suggest the problem is with Britain's benefits system and the ease of which one can enter the informal workforce.

    Commander Leon strapped the gatling cannon to his muscular right arm. In his left hand he carrier the drone. He was going to teach these migrants a lesson they wouldn’t forget.


    And asked it to autocomplete.

    It came up with the immortal, and unintentionally hilarious:

    It can be inferred that Commander Leon is left-handed, which is an important clue to understanding how the story unfolds.
    That's rather sinister.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,569
    ...

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Ratters said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Elon Musk says 'civilisation would crumble' if sourcing oil and gas in the short term suddenly stops
    The world's richest person also warned of a challenge over the birth rate, claiming we must "make more babies" or "we will die with a whimper in adult diapers"."

    https://news.sky.com/story/elon-musk-says-civilisation-would-crumble-if-sourcing-oil-and-gas-in-the-short-term-suddenly-stops-12684700

    (1) "Sourcing oil and gas" - I presume he means prospecting for. And there is literally no chance that "sourcing" oil and gas stops. Not least because oil & gas have many, many uses.

    (2) He's not wrong about birth rates. And I think it's great that he's persuaded so many people to have his kids.
    He's completely wrong about birth rates. There are too many humans about already. If we want to have some chance of not completely wrecking the planet then a fairly lengthy period of global population decline would be welcome.
    He's really not:

    The reality is that birth rates are already below replacement in most countries.

    The next problem - and it's going to be a big problem - is how you persuade a small number of workers to pay for a large number of retirees.
    I agree it creates problems, but it's still probably a good thing on balance. The global population continuing to grow puts pressure on systems and would be more likely to push resources to some breaking point.

    A steadily falling (as opposed to collapsing) global population can be managed via some mix of migration from poorer, younger countries to older, richer countries. Plus people working longer and changes to taxation.

    The likes of South Korea with a incredibly low birth rate and very little immigration is setting itself up to become poorer over time though.
    it's not

    See my posts below!

    AI is on the verge of being real AI. It will do many jobs. Maybe all of them. It will solve this. Of course it might then decide to wipe out humanity but it's a risk we have to take

    AI would not have invaded Ukraine

    I genuinely believe Homo sapiens is now in a race between its own innate but unmeant self-destructiveness, and the ability to fabricate AI which will save us. Might be close

    Why would AI not have decided to invade Ukraine if it was programmed to pursue a Russian Nationalist agenda?
    Would the AI be that intelligent if you did? Though any AI is only as good as its input data, and you could feed it a lopsided data set, I guess.

    Perhaps, like the computer in War Games, it would conclude that the only way to win at the game of aggressive nationalism is not to play. Persue neutrality and extreme wealth instead. Compare Likely-Russia-2030 with Parallel-Universe-Russia-2030, where it calmly and competently got on with pumping and selling fossil fuels. Which one would have more actual oomph on the world stage?
    I've only being saying this for about 3 years. Compare also a Britain that told the US to fuck off and fight its own battles for the past 30 years to what we are today.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,008

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Ratters said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Elon Musk says 'civilisation would crumble' if sourcing oil and gas in the short term suddenly stops
    The world's richest person also warned of a challenge over the birth rate, claiming we must "make more babies" or "we will die with a whimper in adult diapers"."

    https://news.sky.com/story/elon-musk-says-civilisation-would-crumble-if-sourcing-oil-and-gas-in-the-short-term-suddenly-stops-12684700

    (1) "Sourcing oil and gas" - I presume he means prospecting for. And there is literally no chance that "sourcing" oil and gas stops. Not least because oil & gas have many, many uses.

    (2) He's not wrong about birth rates. And I think it's great that he's persuaded so many people to have his kids.
    He's completely wrong about birth rates. There are too many humans about already. If we want to have some chance of not completely wrecking the planet then a fairly lengthy period of global population decline would be welcome.
    He's really not:

    The reality is that birth rates are already below replacement in most countries.

    The next problem - and it's going to be a big problem - is how you persuade a small number of workers to pay for a large number of retirees.
    I agree it creates problems, but it's still probably a good thing on balance. The global population continuing to grow puts pressure on systems and would be more likely to push resources to some breaking point.

    A steadily falling (as opposed to collapsing) global population can be managed via some mix of migration from poorer, younger countries to older, richer countries. Plus people working longer and changes to taxation.

    The likes of South Korea with a incredibly low birth rate and very little immigration is setting itself up to become poorer over time though.
    it's not

    See my posts below!

    AI is on the verge of being real AI. It will do many jobs. Maybe all of them. It will solve this. Of course it might then decide to wipe out humanity but it's a risk we have to take

    AI would not have invaded Ukraine

    I genuinely believe Homo sapiens is now in a race between its own innate but unmeant self-destructiveness, and the ability to fabricate AI which will save us. Might be close

    Let me know when it can unload the dishwasher and stack all the plates in the right cupboard.
    Hang on, if that's the definition of sentience, then neither of my children have it. And they're 12 and 14.
    Lol. My dog's sentient and he can't unload the dishwasher either; I was looking beyond that - towards intelligence.
    Not sure about that. I remember the time I was living in a shared house and one of my housemates brought some of his work home for tea. He was a house-something for people with limited learning abilities, whatever the wording is these days. Folk with trisomy 21, that sort of thing. Quite a lively party, but they made damn sure they washed up before they left. As I remarked to my ultra-intelligent bank whizkid housemate who never washed up after himself, if you have an IQ of 50 you can wash up, but if you have one of 200 ...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,786
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Our new GPT overlords. Let's start with an easy one.

    Since the middle of 2020, there has been a steady rise in the number of migrants arriving by boat on the South Coast of England. This year, as many as 25,000 people could make the crossing, putting enormous pressure on the ability of the British government to deal with them

    One solution proposed it to immediately send the migrants to Rwanda. Other people have proposed paying the French to stop the crossings. While others suggest the problem is with Britain's benefits system and the ease of which one can enter the informal workforce.

    It is clear that the right answer is

    not clear.

    Some of the solutions to this are as follows:

    - Make Britain an official asylum destination and increase legal avenues for migrants to enter the country and work.
    - Create a more efficient system for processing migrants in Europe, so that it is not so enticing for them to come across the Mediterranean in boats.
    - Focus on reducing unemployment


    Which is broadly coherent, even if it confuses the Mediterranean with the Channel. And not that it really offers a solution.
    What are you trying to do? Show that GPT "whatever number" is unable to take over the government of an entire country??

    Clearly that is the case. We are 10-20 years from that being do-able. Maybe 50

    I'm not even sure Stable Diffusion is able to take over the role of Guardian illustrator. I had a go earlier today. Took me an hour to produce an image that might just have sufficed for its article "do animals have emotions?"

    The point is, the the direction of the journey is now obvious. AI is becoming actual AI and will be able to do, better and cheaper, most jobs done by mankind, and that includes the creative/white collar jobs we fondly thought would be last to go

    It will also deploy armies better, AI will be the best, most heartless of generals. Quite frightening


  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,482
    ydoethur said:

    Who's the worse person to have working in Downing Street: Seumas Milne or Dominic Cummings?

    That's a bit like asking who's the stupider Cambridge graduate out of Richard Burgon or Amanda Spielman.
    Ooh, I know the answer.

    Sir, sir, me, me! Burgon!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,438
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Our new GPT overlords. Let's start with an easy one.

    Since the middle of 2020, there has been a steady rise in the number of migrants arriving by boat on the South Coast of England. This year, as many as 25,000 people could make the crossing, putting enormous pressure on the ability of the British government to deal with them

    One solution proposed it to immediately send the migrants to Rwanda. Other people have proposed paying the French to stop the crossings. While others suggest the problem is with Britain's benefits system and the ease of which one can enter the informal workforce.

    It is clear that the right answer is

    not clear.

    Some of the solutions to this are as follows:

    - Make Britain an official asylum destination and increase legal avenues for migrants to enter the country and work.
    - Create a more efficient system for processing migrants in Europe, so that it is not so enticing for them to come across the Mediterranean in boats.
    - Focus on reducing unemployment


    Which is broadly coherent, even if it confuses the Mediterranean with the Channel. And not that it really offers a solution.
    What are you trying to do? Show that GPT "whatever number" is unable to take over the government of an entire country??

    Clearly that is the case. We are 10-20 years from that being do-able. Maybe 50

    I'm not even sure Stable Diffusion is able to take over the role of Guardian illustrator. I had a go earlier today. Took me an hour to produce an image that might just have sufficed for its article "do animals have emotions?"

    The point is, the the direction of the journey is now obvious. AI is becoming actual AI and will be able to do, better and cheaper, most jobs done by mankind, and that includes the creative/white collar jobs we fondly thought would be last to go

    It will also deploy armies better, AI will be the best, most heartless of generals. Quite frightening


    Yes, but are you left handed?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Express puts comments about tax cuts by "visionary professor" Patrick Minford on front page as the hero worshipping of Truss gets under way.

    So it begins.

    God help us.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,551

    OMG The Prince of Wales has had a breakdown on the Isle of Wight.

    I hope he's OK?

    3 billion quid and the frigging ship breaks down a few minutes out of the harbour!
  • Is SKS sound on Ukraine?

    He's been impressively consistent in supporting the government on everything they've done for Ukraine

    But..

    He tried twice to put Putin appeaser Corbyn into Downing St

    He's pleased his supporters by proving that he'll say anything to get elected

    Why would even they believe what he says now?

    What an odd post.

    One can be critical of Starmer for all sorts of failings, but he has not demonstrated any reluctance to support the fight against Putin.

    Like the Jimmy Savile slur the Putin shill accusation might cause Starmer problems. Go on Trussian Tories, you know you want to.
    I noted his impressive consistency in supporting the government. How is that anything like Savile? And why are you trying to bring up SJS v SKS?

    I don’t fully trust Sunak on Ukraine. Why should I treat Sir Keir any different?
    You may recall a rather far fetched and wholly incorrect accusation from Johnson that Starmer facilitated Savile and failed to prosecute him. It was quite effective as it got Starmer roughed up. Your accusation is equally absurd.

    In my view Johnson saw Ukraine as a means of salvation after Partygate. I found his visits to be tiresome electioneering, except for his visit last week. He didn't have to go, so hats off.
    I didn't make an accusation. I asked a question. A question that I also asked of Sunak and Truss. I noted that Starmer had been good so far. I also noted why I had reasons for concern.

    Can you solidly guarantee that he'll stick to what he's so far supported?

    Even though you love the fact that he tricked the Corbynites by lying?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,438
    Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Ratters said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Elon Musk says 'civilisation would crumble' if sourcing oil and gas in the short term suddenly stops
    The world's richest person also warned of a challenge over the birth rate, claiming we must "make more babies" or "we will die with a whimper in adult diapers"."

    https://news.sky.com/story/elon-musk-says-civilisation-would-crumble-if-sourcing-oil-and-gas-in-the-short-term-suddenly-stops-12684700

    (1) "Sourcing oil and gas" - I presume he means prospecting for. And there is literally no chance that "sourcing" oil and gas stops. Not least because oil & gas have many, many uses.

    (2) He's not wrong about birth rates. And I think it's great that he's persuaded so many people to have his kids.
    He's completely wrong about birth rates. There are too many humans about already. If we want to have some chance of not completely wrecking the planet then a fairly lengthy period of global population decline would be welcome.
    He's really not:

    The reality is that birth rates are already below replacement in most countries.

    The next problem - and it's going to be a big problem - is how you persuade a small number of workers to pay for a large number of retirees.
    I agree it creates problems, but it's still probably a good thing on balance. The global population continuing to grow puts pressure on systems and would be more likely to push resources to some breaking point.

    A steadily falling (as opposed to collapsing) global population can be managed via some mix of migration from poorer, younger countries to older, richer countries. Plus people working longer and changes to taxation.

    The likes of South Korea with a incredibly low birth rate and very little immigration is setting itself up to become poorer over time though.
    it's not

    See my posts below!

    AI is on the verge of being real AI. It will do many jobs. Maybe all of them. It will solve this. Of course it might then decide to wipe out humanity but it's a risk we have to take

    AI would not have invaded Ukraine

    I genuinely believe Homo sapiens is now in a race between its own innate but unmeant self-destructiveness, and the ability to fabricate AI which will save us. Might be close

    Let me know when it can unload the dishwasher and stack all the plates in the right cupboard.
    Hang on, if that's the definition of sentience, then neither of my children have it. And they're 12 and 14.
    Lol. My dog's sentient and he can't unload the dishwasher either; I was looking beyond that - towards intelligence.
    Not sure about that. I remember the time I was living in a shared house and one of my housemates brought some of his work home for tea. He was a house-something for people with limited learning abilities, whatever the wording is these days. Folk with trisomy 21, that sort of thing. Quite a lively party, but they made damn sure they washed up before they left. As I remarked to my ultra-intelligent bank whizkid housemate who never washed up after himself, if you have an IQ of 50 you can wash up, but if you have one of 200 ...
    Was this video about him?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-_kXIGvB1uU
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,569
    edited August 29
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Our new GPT overlords. Let's start with an easy one.

    Since the middle of 2020, there has been a steady rise in the number of migrants arriving by boat on the South Coast of England. This year, as many as 25,000 people could make the crossing, putting enormous pressure on the ability of the British government to deal with them

    One solution proposed it to immediately send the migrants to Rwanda. Other people have proposed paying the French to stop the crossings. While others suggest the problem is with Britain's benefits system and the ease of which one can enter the informal workforce.

    It is clear that the right answer is

    not clear.

    Some of the solutions to this are as follows:

    - Make Britain an official asylum destination and increase legal avenues for migrants to enter the country and work.
    - Create a more efficient system for processing migrants in Europe, so that it is not so enticing for them to come across the Mediterranean in boats.
    - Focus on reducing unemployment


    Which is broadly coherent, even if it confuses the Mediterranean with the Channel. And not that it really offers a solution.
    I quite like the official destination for migrants one. I mean I don't massively like it, but there is a 'life gives you lemons' sort of logic to it. I daresay if every boat was welcomed with a mayoral delegation and a free ride to fruit fields, the glamour of it might wear thin.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,008
    nico679 said:

    OMG The Prince of Wales has had a breakdown on the Isle of Wight.

    I hope he's OK?

    3 billion quid and the frigging ship breaks down a few minutes out of the harbour!
    At least it got out of the harbour mouth this time, compared to the flood which damaged systems a couple of years back.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,786
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Our new GPT overlords. Let's start with an easy one.

    Since the middle of 2020, there has been a steady rise in the number of migrants arriving by boat on the South Coast of England. This year, as many as 25,000 people could make the crossing, putting enormous pressure on the ability of the British government to deal with them

    One solution proposed it to immediately send the migrants to Rwanda. Other people have proposed paying the French to stop the crossings. While others suggest the problem is with Britain's benefits system and the ease of which one can enter the informal workforce.

    It is clear that the right answer is

    not clear.

    Some of the solutions to this are as follows:

    - Make Britain an official asylum destination and increase legal avenues for migrants to enter the country and work.
    - Create a more efficient system for processing migrants in Europe, so that it is not so enticing for them to come across the Mediterranean in boats.
    - Focus on reducing unemployment


    Which is broadly coherent, even if it confuses the Mediterranean with the Channel. And not that it really offers a solution.
    What are you trying to do? Show that GPT "whatever number" is unable to take over the government of an entire country??

    Clearly that is the case. We are 10-20 years from that being do-able. Maybe 50

    I'm not even sure Stable Diffusion is able to take over the role of Guardian illustrator. I had a go earlier today. Took me an hour to produce an image that might just have sufficed for its article "do animals have emotions?"

    The point is, the the direction of the journey is now obvious. AI is becoming actual AI and will be able to do, better and cheaper, most jobs done by mankind, and that includes the creative/white collar jobs we fondly thought would be last to go

    It will also deploy armies better, AI will be the best, most heartless of generals. Quite frightening


    Yes, but are you left handed?
    No, But I did like that sentence


    One of the things the latest AI models do is chuck out these random images, sentences, ideas, which make you think WHOOOAH there is something going on

    Is there "something going on"?? Probably not. possibly yes. How the fuck would I know anyway? When does a fetus become sentient? We still haven't worked that out, and that's our own species

    And this, yet again, is the pure and useful beauty of the Turing Test. When a machine passes the Test, when you can no longer tell if they are machines or humans or whatever, then you need to regard them as sentient. If a dolphin started talking to us, coherently, we would soon stop trapping them in tuna nets
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,551

    Express puts comments about tax cuts by "visionary professor" Patrick Minford on front page as the hero worshipping of Truss gets under way.

    So it begins.

    God help us.

    It really is vomit inducing ! Funny how the DE fails to mention that Minford thought destroying UK manufacturing and agriculture was a price worth paying to get the low regulation economy Leavers allegedly wanted !
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,008
    rcs1000 said:

    Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Ratters said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Elon Musk says 'civilisation would crumble' if sourcing oil and gas in the short term suddenly stops
    The world's richest person also warned of a challenge over the birth rate, claiming we must "make more babies" or "we will die with a whimper in adult diapers"."

    https://news.sky.com/story/elon-musk-says-civilisation-would-crumble-if-sourcing-oil-and-gas-in-the-short-term-suddenly-stops-12684700

    (1) "Sourcing oil and gas" - I presume he means prospecting for. And there is literally no chance that "sourcing" oil and gas stops. Not least because oil & gas have many, many uses.

    (2) He's not wrong about birth rates. And I think it's great that he's persuaded so many people to have his kids.
    He's completely wrong about birth rates. There are too many humans about already. If we want to have some chance of not completely wrecking the planet then a fairly lengthy period of global population decline would be welcome.
    He's really not:

    The reality is that birth rates are already below replacement in most countries.

    The next problem - and it's going to be a big problem - is how you persuade a small number of workers to pay for a large number of retirees.
    I agree it creates problems, but it's still probably a good thing on balance. The global population continuing to grow puts pressure on systems and would be more likely to push resources to some breaking point.

    A steadily falling (as opposed to collapsing) global population can be managed via some mix of migration from poorer, younger countries to older, richer countries. Plus people working longer and changes to taxation.

    The likes of South Korea with a incredibly low birth rate and very little immigration is setting itself up to become poorer over time though.
    it's not

    See my posts below!

    AI is on the verge of being real AI. It will do many jobs. Maybe all of them. It will solve this. Of course it might then decide to wipe out humanity but it's a risk we have to take

    AI would not have invaded Ukraine

    I genuinely believe Homo sapiens is now in a race between its own innate but unmeant self-destructiveness, and the ability to fabricate AI which will save us. Might be close

    Let me know when it can unload the dishwasher and stack all the plates in the right cupboard.
    Hang on, if that's the definition of sentience, then neither of my children have it. And they're 12 and 14.
    Lol. My dog's sentient and he can't unload the dishwasher either; I was looking beyond that - towards intelligence.
    Not sure about that. I remember the time I was living in a shared house and one of my housemates brought some of his work home for tea. He was a house-something for people with limited learning abilities, whatever the wording is these days. Folk with trisomy 21, that sort of thing. Quite a lively party, but they made damn sure they washed up before they left. As I remarked to my ultra-intelligent bank whizkid housemate who never washed up after himself, if you have an IQ of 50 you can wash up, but if you have one of 200 ...
    Was this video about him?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-_kXIGvB1uU
    He thought it was.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,482

    Is SKS sound on Ukraine?

    He's been impressively consistent in supporting the government on everything they've done for Ukraine

    But..

    He tried twice to put Putin appeaser Corbyn into Downing St

    He's pleased his supporters by proving that he'll say anything to get elected

    Why would even they believe what he says now?

    What an odd post.

    One can be critical of Starmer for all sorts of failings, but he has not demonstrated any reluctance to support the fight against Putin.

    Like the Jimmy Savile slur the Putin shill accusation might cause Starmer problems. Go on Trussian Tories, you know you want to.
    I noted his impressive consistency in supporting the government. How is that anything like Savile? And why are you trying to bring up SJS v SKS?

    I don’t fully trust Sunak on Ukraine. Why should I treat Sir Keir any different?
    You may recall a rather far fetched and wholly incorrect accusation from Johnson that Starmer facilitated Savile and failed to prosecute him. It was quite effective as it got Starmer roughed up. Your accusation is equally absurd.

    In my view Johnson saw Ukraine as a means of salvation after Partygate. I found his visits to be tiresome electioneering, except for his visit last week. He didn't have to go, so hats off.
    I didn't make an accusation. I asked a question. A question that I also asked of Sunak and Truss. I noted that Starmer had been good so far. I also noted why I had reasons for concern.

    Can you solidly guarantee that he'll stick to what he's so far supported?

    Even though you love the fact that he tricked the Corbynites by lying?
    I can criticise Starmer for many things but hoodwinking the Corbynistas was a perfectly reasonable action. It gave the nation a modestly reasonable Opposition. I don't suppose it took much to bamboozle the dull clowns either.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,711
    edited August 29
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Our new GPT overlords. Let's start with an easy one.

    Since the middle of 2020, there has been a steady rise in the number of migrants arriving by boat on the South Coast of England. This year, as many as 25,000 people could make the crossing, putting enormous pressure on the ability of the British government to deal with them

    One solution proposed it to immediately send the migrants to Rwanda. Other people have proposed paying the French to stop the crossings. While others suggest the problem is with Britain's benefits system and the ease of which one can enter the informal workforce.

    It is clear that the right answer is

    not clear.

    Some of the solutions to this are as follows:

    - Make Britain an official asylum destination and increase legal avenues for migrants to enter the country and work.
    - Create a more efficient system for processing migrants in Europe, so that it is not so enticing for them to come across the Mediterranean in boats.
    - Focus on reducing unemployment


    Which is broadly coherent, even if it confuses the Mediterranean with the Channel. And not that it really offers a solution.
    What are you trying to do? Show that GPT "whatever number" is unable to take over the government of an entire country??

    Clearly that is the case. We are 10-20 years from that being do-able. Maybe 50

    I'm not even sure Stable Diffusion is able to take over the role of Guardian illustrator. I had a go earlier today. Took me an hour to produce an image that might just have sufficed for its article "do animals have emotions?"

    The point is, the the direction of the journey is now obvious. AI is becoming actual AI and will be able to do, better and cheaper, most jobs done by mankind, and that includes the creative/white collar jobs we fondly thought would be last to go

    It will also deploy armies better, AI will be the best, most heartless of generals. Quite frightening


    Yes, but are you left handed?
    Of course he's not left-handed; it's widely acknowledged that left-handedness is a sign of above average intelligence.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,665
    Carnyx said:

    nico679 said:

    OMG The Prince of Wales has had a breakdown on the Isle of Wight.

    I hope he's OK?

    3 billion quid and the frigging ship breaks down a few minutes out of the harbour!
    At least it got out of the harbour mouth this time, compared to the flood which damaged systems a couple of years back.
    It’s funny how the Queen Elizabeth has been pretty reliable, yet the Prince of Wales..

    Hmm..a sign of things to come?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,605
    Mail reporting that Liz is offering Dorries the chance to stay on as Culture Sec.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,008

    Carnyx said:

    nico679 said:

    OMG The Prince of Wales has had a breakdown on the Isle of Wight.

    I hope he's OK?

    3 billion quid and the frigging ship breaks down a few minutes out of the harbour!
    At least it got out of the harbour mouth this time, compared to the flood which damaged systems a couple of years back.
    It’s funny how the Queen Elizabeth has been pretty reliable, yet the Prince of Wales..

    Hmm..a sign of things to come?
    It is odd. Made by the same firms, but the PoW later than HmtQ, so you'd think they had the hang of it better by then.
  • Is SKS sound on Ukraine?

    He's been impressively consistent in supporting the government on everything they've done for Ukraine

    But..

    He tried twice to put Putin appeaser Corbyn into Downing St

    He's pleased his supporters by proving that he'll say anything to get elected

    Why would even they believe what he says now?

    What an odd post.

    One can be critical of Starmer for all sorts of failings, but he has not demonstrated any reluctance to support the fight against Putin.

    Like the Jimmy Savile slur the Putin shill accusation might cause Starmer problems. Go on Trussian Tories, you know you want to.
    I noted his impressive consistency in supporting the government. How is that anything like Savile? And why are you trying to bring up SJS v SKS?

    I don’t fully trust Sunak on Ukraine. Why should I treat Sir Keir any different?
    You may recall a rather far fetched and wholly incorrect accusation from Johnson that Starmer facilitated Savile and failed to prosecute him. It was quite effective as it got Starmer roughed up. Your accusation is equally absurd.

    In my view Johnson saw Ukraine as a means of salvation after Partygate. I found his visits to be tiresome electioneering, except for his visit last week. He didn't have to go, so hats off.
    I didn't make an accusation. I asked a question. A question that I also asked of Sunak and Truss. I noted that Starmer had been good so far. I also noted why I had reasons for concern.

    Can you solidly guarantee that he'll stick to what he's so far supported?

    Even though you love the fact that he tricked the Corbynites by lying?
    I can criticise Starmer for many things but hoodwinking the Corbynistas was a perfectly reasonable action. It gave the nation a modestly reasonable Opposition. I don't suppose it took much to bamboozle the dull clowns either.
    So honesty in politics is not important if you're being dishonest for a noble purpose?
  • I really enjoyed The Genesis Secret

    I thought it was a really fun holiday read. And I've been delighted to be the first of my acquaintances to know about Göbekli Tepe

    Without PB I would never had read Thomas Knox, SeanT "or" @Leon writing about it
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,968
    nico679 said:

    Express puts comments about tax cuts by "visionary professor" Patrick Minford on front page as the hero worshipping of Truss gets under way.

    So it begins.

    God help us.

    It really is vomit inducing ! Funny how the DE fails to mention that Minford thought destroying UK manufacturing and agriculture was a price worth paying to get the low regulation economy Leavers allegedly wanted !
    Would you say that subsidising the offshoring of UK manufacturing to cheaper parts of the single market was a price worth paying for membership of the EU?
  • Is SKS sound on Ukraine?

    He's been impressively consistent in supporting the government on everything they've done for Ukraine

    But..

    He tried twice to put Putin appeaser Corbyn into Downing St

    He's pleased his supporters by proving that he'll say anything to get elected

    Why would even they believe what he says now?

    What an odd post.

    One can be critical of Starmer for all sorts of failings, but he has not demonstrated any reluctance to support the fight against Putin.

    Like the Jimmy Savile slur the Putin shill accusation might cause Starmer problems. Go on Trussian Tories, you know you want to.
    I noted his impressive consistency in supporting the government. How is that anything like Savile? And why are you trying to bring up SJS v SKS?

    I don’t fully trust Sunak on Ukraine. Why should I treat Sir Keir any different?
    You may recall a rather far fetched and wholly incorrect accusation from Johnson that Starmer facilitated Savile and failed to prosecute him. It was quite effective as it got Starmer roughed up. Your accusation is equally absurd.

    In my view Johnson saw Ukraine as a means of salvation after Partygate. I found his visits to be tiresome electioneering, except for his visit last week. He didn't have to go, so hats off.
    I didn't make an accusation. I asked a question. A question that I also asked of Sunak and Truss. I noted that Starmer had been good so far. I also noted why I had reasons for concern.

    Can you solidly guarantee that he'll stick to what he's so far supported?

    Even though you love the fact that he tricked the Corbynites by lying?
    I can criticise Starmer for many things but hoodwinking the Corbynistas was a perfectly reasonable action. It gave the nation a modestly reasonable Opposition. I don't suppose it took much to bamboozle the dull clowns either.
    I'll bet you're hoping that Liz is hoodwinking the ERG
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,680

    nico679 said:

    Express puts comments about tax cuts by "visionary professor" Patrick Minford on front page as the hero worshipping of Truss gets under way.

    So it begins.

    God help us.

    It really is vomit inducing ! Funny how the DE fails to mention that Minford thought destroying UK manufacturing and agriculture was a price worth paying to get the low regulation economy Leavers allegedly wanted !
    Would you say that subsidising the offshoring of UK manufacturing to cheaper parts of the single market was a price worth paying for membership of the EU?
    The law of comparative advantage is your friend here.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Cicero said:

    Not sure if the UK media has picked up the scale of the battle of Kherson. There is a news blackout (not fully maintained), however the Ukrainian armed forces seem to have broken into the City and at least 10 Russian BTGs are currently trapped on the right bank. Also appears that fighting is taking place in the direction of Melitopol. All of us here are praying for a breakout Ukrainian victory that can bring the war to an end and end the Putinist insanity for good. It could be days or weeks, but something big is clearly happening.

    Let's hope so!!!! :+1:
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,482
    edited August 29
    ...

    Is SKS sound on Ukraine?

    He's been impressively consistent in supporting the government on everything they've done for Ukraine

    But..

    He tried twice to put Putin appeaser Corbyn into Downing St

    He's pleased his supporters by proving that he'll say anything to get elected

    Why would even they believe what he says now?

    What an odd post.

    One can be critical of Starmer for all sorts of failings, but he has not demonstrated any reluctance to support the fight against Putin.

    Like the Jimmy Savile slur the Putin shill accusation might cause Starmer problems. Go on Trussian Tories, you know you want to.
    I noted his impressive consistency in supporting the government. How is that anything like Savile? And why are you trying to bring up SJS v SKS?

    I don’t fully trust Sunak on Ukraine. Why should I treat Sir Keir any different?
    You may recall a rather far fetched and wholly incorrect accusation from Johnson that Starmer facilitated Savile and failed to prosecute him. It was quite effective as it got Starmer roughed up. Your accusation is equally absurd.

    In my view Johnson saw Ukraine as a means of salvation after Partygate. I found his visits to be tiresome electioneering, except for his visit last week. He didn't have to go, so hats off.
    I didn't make an accusation. I asked a question. A question that I also asked of Sunak and Truss. I noted that Starmer had been good so far. I also noted why I had reasons for concern.

    Can you solidly guarantee that he'll stick to what he's so far supported?

    Even though you love the fact that he tricked the Corbynites by lying?
    I can criticise Starmer for many things but hoodwinking the Corbynistas was a perfectly reasonable action. It gave the nation a modestly reasonable Opposition. I don't suppose it took much to bamboozle the dull clowns either.
    So honesty in politics is not important if you're being dishonest for a noble purpose?
    For someone who has banged the drum for Johnson for the past three years and excused every whopper spoken, you cannot seriously claim you are an advocate for political probity and honesty.

    To answer your question if the means justifies the end.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,968
    Interesting from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/08/29/britains-open-door-immigration-entirely-changes-economics-brexit/

    As of next week, Britain will have the most ethnically-diverse cabinet of any major country in the OECD bloc. That will be apparent to the world.

    Less understood is that the new Prime Minister will also preside over one of the most liberal and open immigration systems among the developed economies, and considerably more open in key respects than the large EU states.

    This is so far removed from the catechism of the global intelligentsia – let us call it the New York Times view – that many will simply refuse to acknowledge the facts.

    Whatever may have been said by certain people during the Referendum, and whatever Theresa May thought Brexit was supposed to mean, the actual regime established by Boris Johnson for work visas and the resettlement of legal refugees is strikingly expansionary. Furthermore, it has been obvious for some time that this is the direction of travel.

    “I am delighted to say that I have been proved wrong. When it comes to work visas, we have one of the most liberal immigration systems in the world,” said Professor Jonathan Portes from the London School of Economics.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571
    HYUFD said:

    JohnO said:

    HYUFD said:

    Starmer is certainly highly likely to become the PM after the next general election unless Truss gets a huge and sustained bounce.

    The more interesting question is if he can get most seats in a hung parliament or a small majority, in which case he can ignore the SNP. Or if Truss gets a large enough bounce to ensure the Tories still win most seats even if they lose their majority but Labour and the SNP are more than the Tories and DUP. That would still make Starmer PM but with indyref2 firmly back on the agenda

    No, it would not. Starmer will oppose a second referendum under all circumstances. What’s the SNP going to do? Ally themselves (even by abstaining) to bring him down and once again become labelled the Tartan Tories? Not a chance.

    There will be a second election within months just as in 1974. What would be intriguing is if it produced another well-hung (sic) Parliament.
    If the Tories win most seats in a hung parliament then the SNP would abstain on a confidence vote if Starmer and Truss refused them indyref2. Truss would therefore stay PM. I doubt a second election would make much difference, the 2 1974 elections just moved Labour from most seats to a tiny majority. However Labour had won most seats in even the first election
    Is that a fact? Vote against Truss but abstain against Labour seems more likely.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,482

    Is SKS sound on Ukraine?

    He's been impressively consistent in supporting the government on everything they've done for Ukraine

    But..

    He tried twice to put Putin appeaser Corbyn into Downing St

    He's pleased his supporters by proving that he'll say anything to get elected

    Why would even they believe what he says now?

    What an odd post.

    One can be critical of Starmer for all sorts of failings, but he has not demonstrated any reluctance to support the fight against Putin.

    Like the Jimmy Savile slur the Putin shill accusation might cause Starmer problems. Go on Trussian Tories, you know you want to.
    I noted his impressive consistency in supporting the government. How is that anything like Savile? And why are you trying to bring up SJS v SKS?

    I don’t fully trust Sunak on Ukraine. Why should I treat Sir Keir any different?
    You may recall a rather far fetched and wholly incorrect accusation from Johnson that Starmer facilitated Savile and failed to prosecute him. It was quite effective as it got Starmer roughed up. Your accusation is equally absurd.

    In my view Johnson saw Ukraine as a means of salvation after Partygate. I found his visits to be tiresome electioneering, except for his visit last week. He didn't have to go, so hats off.
    I didn't make an accusation. I asked a question. A question that I also asked of Sunak and Truss. I noted that Starmer had been good so far. I also noted why I had reasons for concern.

    Can you solidly guarantee that he'll stick to what he's so far supported?

    Even though you love the fact that he tricked the Corbynites by lying?
    I can criticise Starmer for many things but hoodwinking the Corbynistas was a perfectly reasonable action. It gave the nation a modestly reasonable Opposition. I don't suppose it took much to bamboozle the dull clowns either.
    I'll bet you're hoping that Liz is hoodwinking the ERG
    That would be awesome.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 7,823

    Interesting from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/08/29/britains-open-door-immigration-entirely-changes-economics-brexit/

    As of next week, Britain will have the most ethnically-diverse cabinet of any major country in the OECD bloc. That will be apparent to the world.

    Less understood is that the new Prime Minister will also preside over one of the most liberal and open immigration systems among the developed economies, and considerably more open in key respects than the large EU states.

    This is so far removed from the catechism of the global intelligentsia – let us call it the New York Times view – that many will simply refuse to acknowledge the facts.

    Whatever may have been said by certain people during the Referendum, and whatever Theresa May thought Brexit was supposed to mean, the actual regime established by Boris Johnson for work visas and the resettlement of legal refugees is strikingly expansionary. Furthermore, it has been obvious for some time that this is the direction of travel.

    “I am delighted to say that I have been proved wrong. When it comes to work visas, we have one of the most liberal immigration systems in the world,” said Professor Jonathan Portes from the London School of Economics.

    Legal immigration is a very different beast to illegal immigration and is arguably being managed reasonably well.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,438

    nico679 said:

    Express puts comments about tax cuts by "visionary professor" Patrick Minford on front page as the hero worshipping of Truss gets under way.

    So it begins.

    God help us.

    It really is vomit inducing ! Funny how the DE fails to mention that Minford thought destroying UK manufacturing and agriculture was a price worth paying to get the low regulation economy Leavers allegedly wanted !
    Would you say that subsidising the offshoring of UK manufacturing to cheaper parts of the single market was a price worth paying for membership of the EU?
    You need to be very slightly careful here. Because one can easily rewrite it as:

    Would you say that subsidising the moving of London's manufacturing to Wales is a price worth paying for membership of the United Kingdom?

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Mark Hertling
    @MarkHertling
    ·
    9h
    I believe I suggested it would be a mini-Falaise (WWII reference) with likely 10-25,000 Russian forces trapped west of the Dniepro. Only the Russians couldn’t see it coming.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,856

    Is SKS sound on Ukraine?

    He's been impressively consistent in supporting the government on everything they've done for Ukraine

    But..

    He tried twice to put Putin appeaser Corbyn into Downing St

    He's pleased his supporters by proving that he'll say anything to get elected

    Why would even they believe what he says now?

    What an odd post.

    One can be critical of Starmer for all sorts of failings, but he has not demonstrated any reluctance to support the fight against Putin.

    Like the Jimmy Savile slur the Putin shill accusation might cause Starmer problems. Go on Trussian Tories, you know you want to.
    I noted his impressive consistency in supporting the government. How is that anything like Savile? And why are you trying to bring up SJS v SKS?

    I don’t fully trust Sunak on Ukraine. Why should I treat Sir Keir any different?
    You may recall a rather far fetched and wholly incorrect accusation from Johnson that Starmer facilitated Savile and failed to prosecute him. It was quite effective as it got Starmer roughed up. Your accusation is equally absurd.

    In my view Johnson saw Ukraine as a means of salvation after Partygate. I found his visits to be tiresome electioneering, except for his visit last week. He didn't have to go, so hats off.
    I didn't make an accusation. I asked a question. A question that I also asked of Sunak and Truss. I noted that Starmer had been good so far. I also noted why I had reasons for concern.

    Can you solidly guarantee that he'll stick to what he's so far supported?

    Even though you love the fact that he tricked the Corbynites by lying?
    I can criticise Starmer for many things but hoodwinking the Corbynistas was a perfectly reasonable action. It gave the nation a modestly reasonable Opposition. I don't suppose it took much to bamboozle the dull clowns either.
    I'll bet you're hoping that Liz is hoodwinking the ERG
    That would be awesome.
    Hardcore realpolitik would say that it's fine to hoodwink someone else provided they can't retaliate in any way that hurts you.

    On that basis, hoodwinking the Corbyn crew was practically a duty. The wisdom of trying to hoodwink the ERG and similarly-named successors depends on how potent you judge them to currently be.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 555
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Our new GPT overlords. Let's start with an easy one.

    Since the middle of 2020, there has been a steady rise in the number of migrants arriving by boat on the South Coast of England. This year, as many as 25,000 people could make the crossing, putting enormous pressure on the ability of the British government to deal with them

    One solution proposed it to immediately send the migrants to Rwanda. Other people have proposed paying the French to stop the crossings. While others suggest the problem is with Britain's benefits system and the ease of which one can enter the informal workforce.

    It is clear that the right answer is

    not clear.

    Some of the solutions to this are as follows:

    - Make Britain an official asylum destination and increase legal avenues for migrants to enter the country and work.
    - Create a more efficient system for processing migrants in Europe, so that it is not so enticing for them to come across the Mediterranean in boats.
    - Focus on reducing unemployment


    Which is broadly coherent, even if it confuses the Mediterranean with the Channel. And not that it really offers a solution.
    What are you trying to do? Show that GPT "whatever number" is unable to take over the government of an entire country??

    Clearly that is the case. We are 10-20 years from that being do-able. Maybe 50

    I'm not even sure Stable Diffusion is able to take over the role of Guardian illustrator. I had a go earlier today. Took me an hour to produce an image that might just have sufficed for its article "do animals have emotions?"

    The point is, the the direction of the journey is now obvious. AI is becoming actual AI and will be able to do, better and cheaper, most jobs done by mankind, and that includes the creative/white collar jobs we fondly thought would be last to go

    It will also deploy armies better, AI will be the best, most heartless of generals. Quite frightening


    Yes, but are you left handed?
    No, But I did like that sentence


    One of the things the latest AI models do is chuck out these random images, sentences, ideas, which make you think WHOOOAH there is something going on

    Is there "something going on"?? Probably not. possibly yes. How the fuck would I know anyway? When does a fetus become sentient? We still haven't worked that out, and that's our own species

    And this, yet again, is the pure and useful beauty of the Turing Test. When a machine passes the Test, when you can no longer tell if they are machines or humans or whatever, then you need to regard them as sentient. If a dolphin started talking to us, coherently, we would soon stop trapping them in tuna nets
    Have you seen Ex Machina? It's a pretty nice play on the Turing Test and I think you'd like the replacement suggested.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,438
    Cookie said:

    Interesting from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/08/29/britains-open-door-immigration-entirely-changes-economics-brexit/

    As of next week, Britain will have the most ethnically-diverse cabinet of any major country in the OECD bloc. That will be apparent to the world.

    Less understood is that the new Prime Minister will also preside over one of the most liberal and open immigration systems among the developed economies, and considerably more open in key respects than the large EU states.

    This is so far removed from the catechism of the global intelligentsia – let us call it the New York Times view – that many will simply refuse to acknowledge the facts.

    Whatever may have been said by certain people during the Referendum, and whatever Theresa May thought Brexit was supposed to mean, the actual regime established by Boris Johnson for work visas and the resettlement of legal refugees is strikingly expansionary. Furthermore, it has been obvious for some time that this is the direction of travel.

    “I am delighted to say that I have been proved wrong. When it comes to work visas, we have one of the most liberal immigration systems in the world,” said Professor Jonathan Portes from the London School of Economics.

    Legal immigration is a very different beast to illegal immigration and is arguably being managed reasonably well.
    I think we do a reasonable job with legal migration. Some bits we do poorly: such as poor @Sandpit, who can't bring his Ukrainian wife back to the UK, because she doesn't earn enough. Others, like tech worker visas we do a pretty good job with.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,144
    kinabalu said:

    OldBasing said:

    So the Poundshop Margaret Thatcher is also frit.

    Yes, can't handle a serious interview. Really bad sign. Airhead succeeds airhead as PM. Woe is us.
    I wouldn't regard Johnson as an airhead. More of a blancmange.
  • Is SKS sound on Ukraine?

    He's been impressively consistent in supporting the government on everything they've done for Ukraine

    But..

    He tried twice to put Putin appeaser Corbyn into Downing St

    He's pleased his supporters by proving that he'll say anything to get elected

    Why would even they believe what he says now?

    What an odd post.

    One can be critical of Starmer for all sorts of failings, but he has not demonstrated any reluctance to support the fight against Putin.

    Like the Jimmy Savile slur the Putin shill accusation might cause Starmer problems. Go on Trussian Tories, you know you want to.
    I noted his impressive consistency in supporting the government. How is that anything like Savile? And why are you trying to bring up SJS v SKS?

    I don’t fully trust Sunak on Ukraine. Why should I treat Sir Keir any different?
    You may recall a rather far fetched and wholly incorrect accusation from Johnson that Starmer facilitated Savile and failed to prosecute him. It was quite effective as it got Starmer roughed up. Your accusation is equally absurd.

    In my view Johnson saw Ukraine as a means of salvation after Partygate. I found his visits to be tiresome electioneering, except for his visit last week. He didn't have to go, so hats off.
    I didn't make an accusation. I asked a question. A question that I also asked of Sunak and Truss. I noted that Starmer had been good so far. I also noted why I had reasons for concern.

    Can you solidly guarantee that he'll stick to what he's so far supported?

    Even though you love the fact that he tricked the Corbynites by lying?
    I can criticise Starmer for many things but hoodwinking the Corbynistas was a perfectly reasonable action. It gave the nation a modestly reasonable Opposition. I don't suppose it took much to bamboozle the dull clowns either.
    I'll bet you're hoping that Liz is hoodwinking the ERG
    That would be awesome.
    Is it awesome if Sir Keir is hoodwinking you, but gets elected?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103

    Mail reporting that Liz is offering Dorries the chance to stay on as Culture Sec.

    Oh FFS.

    How much continuity Johnson does she want to be?

    Let's hope Johnson gives her a peerage and gets her well away from destroying the BBC.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 890
    Since we are discussing demographics, let me call your attention to this sequence, beginning in 2001: 2.030, 2.020, 2.047, 2.051, 2.057, 2.108, 2.120, 2.072, 2.002, 1.931.

    During two of those ten years, 2006 and 2007, the total fertility rate in the United States was above the replacement rate of 2.1. Barely, granted, but I don't know of any other industrialized nations that have managed even that, since 2001.
    source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States

    Of course, this was also a time of large amounts of immigration, legal and illegal, so the US population grew rapidly during those years, from 284 million to 309 million.

    Oh, and the air and water in the US got got cleaner during those years, and most endangered species became less so.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,786

    I really enjoyed The Genesis Secret

    I thought it was a really fun holiday read. And I've been delighted to be the first of my acquaintances to know about Göbekli Tepe

    Without PB I would never had read Thomas Knox, SeanT "or" @Leon writing about it

    I shall pass on your kind and generous remarks to the author. He does seem to follow me about, despite my best efforts, so there is a fair chance I will run into him

    *sigh*
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,144
    Cicero said:

    Not sure if the UK media has picked up the scale of the battle of Kherson. There is a news blackout (not fully maintained), however the Ukrainian armed forces seem to have broken into the City and at least 10 Russian BTGs are currently trapped on the right bank. Also appears that fighting is taking place in the direction of Melitopol. All of us here are praying for a breakout Ukrainian victory that can bring the war to an end and end the Putinist insanity for good. It could be days or weeks, but something big is clearly happening.

    Wow if true. Not sure I can quite believe it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 31,968
    Leon said:

    I really enjoyed The Genesis Secret

    I thought it was a really fun holiday read. And I've been delighted to be the first of my acquaintances to know about Göbekli Tepe

    Without PB I would never had read Thomas Knox, SeanT "or" @Leon writing about it

    I shall pass on your kind and generous remarks to the author. He does seem to follow me about, despite my best efforts, so there is a fair chance I will run into him

    *sigh*
    I liked it, too. That, and The Bible of the Dead
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,680
    Leon said:

    I really enjoyed The Genesis Secret

    I thought it was a really fun holiday read. And I've been delighted to be the first of my acquaintances to know about Göbekli Tepe

    Without PB I would never had read Thomas Knox, SeanT "or" @Leon writing about it

    I shall pass on your kind and generous remarks to the author. He does seem to follow me about, despite my best efforts, so there is a fair chance I will run into him

    *sigh*
    Just catching up with last night.

    You posted a preposterous image purportedly of me which I found felt distasteful and upsetting. I don't know why you bully people like that or what you get out of it. Please desist or I will have no option but to launch an official complaint.

    The picture however did bear an uncanny resemblance to my identical twin brother and I will be speaking to him to ensure he is not likewise offended.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,043

    Interesting from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/08/29/britains-open-door-immigration-entirely-changes-economics-brexit/

    As of next week, Britain will have the most ethnically-diverse cabinet of any major country in the OECD bloc. That will be apparent to the world.

    Less understood is that the new Prime Minister will also preside over one of the most liberal and open immigration systems among the developed economies, and considerably more open in key respects than the large EU states.

    This is so far removed from the catechism of the global intelligentsia – let us call it the New York Times view – that many will simply refuse to acknowledge the facts.

    Whatever may have been said by certain people during the Referendum, and whatever Theresa May thought Brexit was supposed to mean, the actual regime established by Boris Johnson for work visas and the resettlement of legal refugees is strikingly expansionary. Furthermore, it has been obvious for some time that this is the direction of travel.

    “I am delighted to say that I have been proved wrong. When it comes to work visas, we have one of the most liberal immigration systems in the world,” said Professor Jonathan Portes from the London School of Economics.

    Fair enough but the redwall voters will still expect this most ethnically diverse ever Cabinet to cut immigration by the next general election as they voted for Brexit and Boris for or they won't be voting Conservative again
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,144
    Even twitter seems to have gone down. That WOULD be a news blackout.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 7,823
    Sean_F said:

    Cicero said:

    Not sure if the UK media has picked up the scale of the battle of Kherson. There is a news blackout (not fully maintained), however the Ukrainian armed forces seem to have broken into the City and at least 10 Russian BTGs are currently trapped on the right bank. Also appears that fighting is taking place in the direction of Melitopol. All of us here are praying for a breakout Ukrainian victory that can bring the war to an end and end the Putinist insanity for good. It could be days or weeks, but something big is clearly happening.

    The BBC likes to be pretty sure, before reporting something as fact, which is a good thing, but can leave them running behind events. But, this is very good news.

    It's good to see Noam Chomsky's boys take one hell of a beating.
    Noam Chomsky's boys? Has Noam been shilling for Russia?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Brilliant if true. I hadn't seen the parts about the Ukrainians breaking into Kherson but if they are attacking in the direction of Melitopol as well, then the aim might not just be to trap the forces on the right bank but a whole swathe of other forces. Let's see

    (If I was like @TSE, I might also mention that I said around two weeks back that the Ukrainians were likely to try something big around Kherson within 10-14 days. However...)
    Cicero said:

    Not sure if the UK media has picked up the scale of the battle of Kherson. There is a news blackout (not fully maintained), however the Ukrainian armed forces seem to have broken into the City and at least 10 Russian BTGs are currently trapped on the right bank. Also appears that fighting is taking place in the direction of Melitopol. All of us here are praying for a breakout Ukrainian victory that can bring the war to an end and end the Putinist insanity for good. It could be days or weeks, but something big is clearly happening.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,482

    nico679 said:

    Express puts comments about tax cuts by "visionary professor" Patrick Minford on front page as the hero worshipping of Truss gets under way.

    So it begins.

    God help us.

    It really is vomit inducing ! Funny how the DE fails to mention that Minford thought destroying UK manufacturing and agriculture was a price worth paying to get the low regulation economy Leavers allegedly wanted !
    Would you say that subsidising the offshoring of UK manufacturing to cheaper parts of the single market was a price worth paying for membership of the EU?
    Had we not allowed the purchase of British manufacturing and service companies by a Conservative Government in the 1980s by foreign owners much of that issue could have been avoided. It was nothing to do with the EU.

    Wholly British owned companies seeing a quick buck exported manufacturing and services further afield than the EU. India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and China for example. That was nothing to do with the EU.

    An example was Marks and Spencer who's USP was predominantly British manufactured product throughout the store. Now find any manufactured item in an M and S store that isn't imported. That had nothing to do with the EU it was a decision by M and S management.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,697
    @Leon go watch the latest series of the The Capture.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 31,968
    Cookie said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cicero said:

    Not sure if the UK media has picked up the scale of the battle of Kherson. There is a news blackout (not fully maintained), however the Ukrainian armed forces seem to have broken into the City and at least 10 Russian BTGs are currently trapped on the right bank. Also appears that fighting is taking place in the direction of Melitopol. All of us here are praying for a breakout Ukrainian victory that can bring the war to an end and end the Putinist insanity for good. It could be days or weeks, but something big is clearly happening.

    The BBC likes to be pretty sure, before reporting something as fact, which is a good thing, but can leave them running behind events. But, this is very good news.

    It's good to see Noam Chomsky's boys take one hell of a beating.
    Noam Chomsky's boys? Has Noam been shilling for Russia?
    Very much so.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,968

    nico679 said:

    Express puts comments about tax cuts by "visionary professor" Patrick Minford on front page as the hero worshipping of Truss gets under way.

    So it begins.

    God help us.

    It really is vomit inducing ! Funny how the DE fails to mention that Minford thought destroying UK manufacturing and agriculture was a price worth paying to get the low regulation economy Leavers allegedly wanted !
    Would you say that subsidising the offshoring of UK manufacturing to cheaper parts of the single market was a price worth paying for membership of the EU?
    Had we not allowed the purchase of British manufacturing and service companies by a Conservative Government in the 1980s by foreign owners much of that issue could have been avoided. It was nothing to do with the EU.

    Wholly British owned companies seeing a quick buck exported manufacturing and services further afield than the EU. India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and China for example. That was nothing to do with the EU.

    An example was Marks and Spencer who's USP was predominantly British manufactured product throughout the store. Now find any manufactured item in an M and S store that isn't imported. That had nothing to do with the EU it was a decision by M and S management.
    My point was just that a lot of people who think Patrick Minford's views are beyond the pale are hypocritical. He might be right or wrong about how to increase our wealth, but he's more honest than most.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,438

    Since we are discussing demographics, let me call your attention to this sequence, beginning in 2001: 2.030, 2.020, 2.047, 2.051, 2.057, 2.108, 2.120, 2.072, 2.002, 1.931.

    During two of those ten years, 2006 and 2007, the total fertility rate in the United States was above the replacement rate of 2.1. Barely, granted, but I don't know of any other industrialized nations that have managed even that, since 2001.
    source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States

    Of course, this was also a time of large amounts of immigration, legal and illegal, so the US population grew rapidly during those years, from 284 million to 309 million.

    Oh, and the air and water in the US got got cleaner during those years, and most endangered species became less so.

    France has bounced around between 1.9 and 2.0, so not far behind (and mostly thanks to the best pronatal policies in the world). The UK hasn't been too far behind, although it's dropped pretty sharply in the last five or six years, dipping to below 1.6 in 2020.

    See: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=FR-GB
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,438
    Cookie said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cicero said:

    Not sure if the UK media has picked up the scale of the battle of Kherson. There is a news blackout (not fully maintained), however the Ukrainian armed forces seem to have broken into the City and at least 10 Russian BTGs are currently trapped on the right bank. Also appears that fighting is taking place in the direction of Melitopol. All of us here are praying for a breakout Ukrainian victory that can bring the war to an end and end the Putinist insanity for good. It could be days or weeks, but something big is clearly happening.

    The BBC likes to be pretty sure, before reporting something as fact, which is a good thing, but can leave them running behind events. But, this is very good news.

    It's good to see Noam Chomsky's boys take one hell of a beating.
    Noam Chomsky's boys? Has Noam been shilling for Russia?
    Yes.

  • Cookie said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cicero said:

    Not sure if the UK media has picked up the scale of the battle of Kherson. There is a news blackout (not fully maintained), however the Ukrainian armed forces seem to have broken into the City and at least 10 Russian BTGs are currently trapped on the right bank. Also appears that fighting is taking place in the direction of Melitopol. All of us here are praying for a breakout Ukrainian victory that can bring the war to an end and end the Putinist insanity for good. It could be days or weeks, but something big is clearly happening.

    The BBC likes to be pretty sure, before reporting something as fact, which is a good thing, but can leave them running behind events. But, this is very good news.

    It's good to see Noam Chomsky's boys take one hell of a beating.
    Noam Chomsky's boys? Has Noam been shilling for Russia?
    This is what he says about himself in the third person

    https://www.counterpunch.org/2022/06/03/the-ukraine-war-chomsky-responds/
  • Test
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,482

    Is SKS sound on Ukraine?

    He's been impressively consistent in supporting the government on everything they've done for Ukraine

    But..

    He tried twice to put Putin appeaser Corbyn into Downing St

    He's pleased his supporters by proving that he'll say anything to get elected

    Why would even they believe what he says now?

    What an odd post.

    One can be critical of Starmer for all sorts of failings, but he has not demonstrated any reluctance to support the fight against Putin.

    Like the Jimmy Savile slur the Putin shill accusation might cause Starmer problems. Go on Trussian Tories, you know you want to.
    I noted his impressive consistency in supporting the government. How is that anything like Savile? And why are you trying to bring up SJS v SKS?

    I don’t fully trust Sunak on Ukraine. Why should I treat Sir Keir any different?
    You may recall a rather far fetched and wholly incorrect accusation from Johnson that Starmer facilitated Savile and failed to prosecute him. It was quite effective as it got Starmer roughed up. Your accusation is equally absurd.

    In my view Johnson saw Ukraine as a means of salvation after Partygate. I found his visits to be tiresome electioneering, except for his visit last week. He didn't have to go, so hats off.
    I didn't make an accusation. I asked a question. A question that I also asked of Sunak and Truss. I noted that Starmer had been good so far. I also noted why I had reasons for concern.

    Can you solidly guarantee that he'll stick to what he's so far supported?

    Even though you love the fact that he tricked the Corbynites by lying?
    I can criticise Starmer for many things but hoodwinking the Corbynistas was a perfectly reasonable action. It gave the nation a modestly reasonable Opposition. I don't suppose it took much to bamboozle the dull clowns either.
    I'll bet you're hoping that Liz is hoodwinking the ERG
    That would be awesome.
    Is it awesome if Sir Keir is hoodwinking you, but gets elected?
    I doubt he is. I consider myself to be far smarter than anyone who thinks the answer was Jeremy Corbyn.
  • Is SKS sound on Ukraine?

    He's been impressively consistent in supporting the government on everything they've done for Ukraine

    But..

    He tried twice to put Putin appeaser Corbyn into Downing St

    He's pleased his supporters by proving that he'll say anything to get elected

    Why would even they believe what he says now?

    What an odd post.

    One can be critical of Starmer for all sorts of failings, but he has not demonstrated any reluctance to support the fight against Putin.

    Like the Jimmy Savile slur the Putin shill accusation might cause Starmer problems. Go on Trussian Tories, you know you want to.
    I noted his impressive consistency in supporting the government. How is that anything like Savile? And why are you trying to bring up SJS v SKS?

    I don’t fully trust Sunak on Ukraine. Why should I treat Sir Keir any different?
    You may recall a rather far fetched and wholly incorrect accusation from Johnson that Starmer facilitated Savile and failed to prosecute him. It was quite effective as it got Starmer roughed up. Your accusation is equally absurd.

    In my view Johnson saw Ukraine as a means of salvation after Partygate. I found his visits to be tiresome electioneering, except for his visit last week. He didn't have to go, so hats off.
    I didn't make an accusation. I asked a question. A question that I also asked of Sunak and Truss. I noted that Starmer had been good so far. I also noted why I had reasons for concern.

    Can you solidly guarantee that he'll stick to what he's so far supported?

    Even though you love the fact that he tricked the Corbynites by lying?
    I can criticise Starmer for many things but hoodwinking the Corbynistas was a perfectly reasonable action. It gave the nation a modestly reasonable Opposition. I don't suppose it took much to bamboozle the dull clowns either.
    I'll bet you're hoping that Liz is hoodwinking the ERG
    That would be awesome.
    Is it awesome if Sir Keir is hoodwinking you, but gets elected?
    I doubt he is. I consider myself to be far smarter than anyone who thinks the answer was Jeremy Corbyn.
    Did you not vote Labour in 2017 and 2019?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 1,322

    nico679 said:

    Express puts comments about tax cuts by "visionary professor" Patrick Minford on front page as the hero worshipping of Truss gets under way.

    So it begins.

    God help us.

    It really is vomit inducing ! Funny how the DE fails to mention that Minford thought destroying UK manufacturing and agriculture was a price worth paying to get the low regulation economy Leavers allegedly wanted !
    Would you say that subsidising the offshoring of UK manufacturing to cheaper parts of the single market was a price worth paying for membership of the EU?
    Had we not allowed the purchase of British manufacturing and service companies by a Conservative Government in the 1980s by foreign owners much of that issue could have been avoided. It was nothing to do with the EU.

    Wholly British owned companies seeing a quick buck exported manufacturing and services further afield than the EU. India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and China for example. That was nothing to do with the EU.

    An example was Marks and Spencer who's USP was predominantly British manufactured product throughout the store. Now find any manufactured item in an M and S store that isn't imported. That had nothing to do with the EU it was a decision by M and S management.
    More just a simple reality: given that cheap clothes from abroad now exist, customers won’t bear the prices of UK-made ones.

    Fifty or sixty years ago a young man in a white collar job might have had to pay a day’s wages for each white shirt and a week’s wages for a pair of black oxfords - he had no choice. Now he can buy a shirt for two hours’ wages and a pair of shoes for a day’s - or less.

    If M&S wanted to remain mass-market, quality had to go down, because the public demanded prices go down.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,020

    Express puts comments about tax cuts by "visionary professor" Patrick Minford on front page as the hero worshipping of Truss gets under way.

    So it begins.

    God help us.

    What's the problem with Professor Minford's theories?
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 890
    DavidL said: "Caves if steel was a great book, arguably Asimovs best but it’s not a world I would like to live in."

    Caves of Steel is a great book, but Asimov got his arithmetic wrong: "Efficiency had been forced on Earth with increasing population. Two billion, three billion, even five billion could be supported by the planet by progressive lowering of the standard of living. When the population reaches eight billion, however, semistarvation becomes too much like the real thing."

    (The world's population is projected to reach eight billion in November.)

    It is odd that a biochemist would miss the substantial achievements in agriculture that had already occurred, and that he would not realize that many more were possible. (I don't recall exactly how long this lasted, but for years after World War II, US farm productivity grew at a 4 percent rate. Growing up on a farm at the time, I didn't know those numbers but I could see that the US would need fewer farmers in the future.)

    (I have wondered for years whether Asimov suffered from agoraphobia, but have never investigated the question.)



  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,482

    nico679 said:

    Express puts comments about tax cuts by "visionary professor" Patrick Minford on front page as the hero worshipping of Truss gets under way.

    So it begins.

    God help us.

    It really is vomit inducing ! Funny how the DE fails to mention that Minford thought destroying UK manufacturing and agriculture was a price worth paying to get the low regulation economy Leavers allegedly wanted !
    Would you say that subsidising the offshoring of UK manufacturing to cheaper parts of the single market was a price worth paying for membership of the EU?
    Had we not allowed the purchase of British manufacturing and service companies by a Conservative Government in the 1980s by foreign owners much of that issue could have been avoided. It was nothing to do with the EU.

    Wholly British owned companies seeing a quick buck exported manufacturing and services further afield than the EU. India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and China for example. That was nothing to do with the EU.

    An example was Marks and Spencer who's USP was predominantly British manufactured product throughout the store. Now find any manufactured item in an M and S store that isn't imported. That had nothing to do with the EU it was a decision by M and S management.
    My point was just that a lot of people who think Patrick Minford's views are beyond the pale are hypocritical. He might be right or wrong about how to increase our wealth, but he's more honest than most.
    Much of Minford's economic view flies in the face of the classical economist herd. I find it handy that Liz Truss has determined he is right and the herd are wrong.

    Time will tell.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 3,741
    edited August 29
    So is SKS a Blairite, Brownite, Corbynite, maybe even a Milibandite?

    Do we have any idea what a Starmerite believes in yet?

    I can remember two policies - taxing private schools and subsidising energy companies, and then taxing them

    And something about donkeys
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,482
    carnforth said:

    nico679 said:

    Express puts comments about tax cuts by "visionary professor" Patrick Minford on front page as the hero worshipping of Truss gets under way.

    So it begins.

    God help us.

    It really is vomit inducing ! Funny how the DE fails to mention that Minford thought destroying UK manufacturing and agriculture was a price worth paying to get the low regulation economy Leavers allegedly wanted !
    Would you say that subsidising the offshoring of UK manufacturing to cheaper parts of the single market was a price worth paying for membership of the EU?
    Had we not allowed the purchase of British manufacturing and service companies by a Conservative Government in the 1980s by foreign owners much of that issue could have been avoided. It was nothing to do with the EU.

    Wholly British owned companies seeing a quick buck exported manufacturing and services further afield than the EU. India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and China for example. That was nothing to do with the EU.

    An example was Marks and Spencer who's USP was predominantly British manufactured product throughout the store. Now find any manufactured item in an M and S store that isn't imported. That had nothing to do with the EU it was a decision by M and S management.
    More just a simple reality: given that cheap clothes from abroad now exist, customers won’t bear the prices of UK-made ones.

    Fifty or sixty years ago a young man in a white collar job might have had to pay a day’s wages for each white shirt and a week’s wages for a pair of black oxfords - he had no choice. Now he can buy a shirt for two hours’ wages and a pair of shoes for a day’s - or less.

    If M&S wanted to remain mass-market, quality had to go down, because the public demanded prices go down.
    Absolutely. My point is the decision to offshore from the UK was a business choice, and not a demand made by the EU, which was the allusion being made by @williamglenn .
This discussion has been closed.