Infectiousness of SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections and reinfections during the Omicron wave https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.08.08.22278547v1 Breakthrough infections in vaccinated individuals and reinfections among previously infected individuals are increasingly prevalent, especially during the Omicron wave. Here, we analyze data from SARS-CoV-2 surveillance across 35 California prisons to understand the impact of vaccination and prior infection on infectiousness of individuals with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron infections in prison settings. We estimate that vaccination, prior infection, and both vaccination and prior infection reduced an index case’s risk of transmitting to close contacts by 24% (9-37%), 21% (4-36%) and 41% (23-54%), respectively. Booster vaccine doses and more recent vaccination further reduced infectiousness. These findings suggest that although vaccinated and/or previously infected individuals remain infectious upon SARS-CoV-2 Omicron infection in this prison setting, their infectiousness is reduced compared to individuals without any history of vaccination or infection.
Doing a re-read of Space Launch Systems stuff. Amazing that NASA are still using a fully disposable system when SpaceX have everything reusable.
Worse than that; in the case of the engines, they're disposing of items that were reusable. As to why, it's a combination of factors:
*) The SLS project started in 2911, when SpaceX had only launched the initial version of Falcon 9 twice, before SpaceX had decided on propulsive landing, and ?four? years before a F9 successfully landed.
*) The SLS is *very* large compared to the F9. The issues of recovery are so much greater, especially as the first stage will be travelling *much* faster than the F9 first stage does (in the case of F9, they stage early - and have a larger second stage, to keep speeds down and to make recovery easier).
*) Economics. The flight rate of SLS is too low to make reusability economical. Back in the 1960s, von Braun estimated over 100 flights would have to be manifested to make Saturn V reuse economic to develop.
*) Politics. The SLS uses ex-Shuttle parts to keep politicians happy - they did not want ex-Shuttle factories to close.
All in all, it made sense back in 2011. *If* SpaceX's SH/SS combo actually works, it won't have many flights. *If*.
There's also Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket, which will have a reusable first stage, and potentially a reusable second stage as well. And ULA are going for some form of SMART reuse with Vulcan - though they have the same problem of high-altitude, high-speed staging.
The speed on reentry issue is interesting - because rocket stages are very very light for their size, big fat first stages decelerate rapidly. The only reason that SLS stages high is the bizarre 1.5 stage architecture.
This was driven by the belief that (for the Shuttle) staging is bad. And that all engines should be lit before take off. Both ideas proved to be untrue. Staging is't a major risk and lightning all the engines at take off doesn't help either - especially since you have the unstoppable solids involved.
The SLS doesn't really use shuttle parts - more shuttle derived parts. The RS-25s were rebuilt at a cost of billions to a new spec. As the engineers tried to tell them, you couldn't just use the shuttle External Tank as a core stage. So that is brand new. The solid boosters are the same, apart from the case, the joints between segments, the grain, the propellant, the nozzles, the avionics.. oh, and deleting the parachutes.
The claim that Constellation and its successors reused anything from the shuttle was about making sure the development money was channeled to the right people. ATK, for example, said that if they ddn't get a contract for all new solid boosters, they wouldn't make the old ones for NASA. And double the price of military solid rockets to make up the money.... Yes, they literally, straight up, blackmailed the government.
#wickwick
In the case of today's launch I believe that the first stage stages at near orbital velocity, due to the fact the second stage is the interim system and not the (yet to be developed) 'proper' one. Basically, the first stage is too large for the second stage.
I get your point about things having been developed, but it's still the same *basic* designs. As an example, yes, the SRBs have changed, but they're still just a slightly-lengthened version of the Shuttle ones. I think your comment is splitting hairs a little.
I hope SLS's launch today goes well. The western world needs a heavy launcher, and until SpaceX, BO or a.n.other get their designs working, SLS is all we have. It has been a bit of a problematic project though,
She needs to then translate that into voteshare in No 10 and sustain it. If she did then even if she still lost the Tory majority she could still win most seats
She needs the conservative party to get behind her 100% once elected otherwise the party faces extinction in 2024
Will you come on bord and accept Johnson is over and the party needs to move on
Well I will come 100% behind her if she is elected leader despite voting for Sunak as I have every other Tory leader since I joined the party in 1998. However if she is trailing well behind in the polls this time next year whether the party will do so is another matter.
As for extinction the party is still far better placed than in Spring 2019 when it not only trailed Labour but had been overtaken by the Brexit Party as the main party of the right too
Although not impossible (look what happened to the Liberals) I tend to agree that under FPTP it is extremely unlikely that the Tories will face extinction. At worse they will go into opposition as they did before and come back stronger. As before they may go through a few leaders before reinventing themselves.
True but then of course the main reason the Liberals were overtaken was the fact that all working class male voters over 21 gained the vote by 1918, joined by all working class women by 1928 and those working class voters mostly voted Labour so Labour overtook the Liberals as the Tories main opponents. Whereas in the 19th century the electorate were mostly middle class and voted Tory or Liberal
I've not studied any of this. What you say makes senses, but is it as simple as that?
In large part. It was the widening of the franchise and the growth of trade unions as the economy industrialised and moved to the cities that was pivotal to the growth of Labour and the relative decline of the Liberals.
If the Tories however were overtaken as the main party off the right it would mainly be on ideological grounds, hence Farage's Brexit Party briefly overtook May's Tories in the polls in Spring 2019 after she failed to deliver Brexit
I wish it was only 'relative decline'. I fully accept I am in a minority as a Liberal. Even when we are doing well it is important to note our core vote is still very low indeed (4 - 5%) and much of the rest is due to protest against Tory/Labour.
Indeed although the LD core vote would likely be a bit higher under PR. The LD core vote is economically and socially liberal and anti Brexit now. Davey is more likely to pick up Remain voting Tories at the next general election who dislike Truss than any votes from Labour in my view. Labour voters who liked Corbyn but dislike Starmer are more likely to go Green than LD
Unduly optimistic, young HY - from a Tory point of view, of course. How many seats do you think the Green Party will win next time? And which ones? They do well only when the Liberal Democrats make way for them - as in the case of Swinson's anti-Brexit strategy in 2019, for example.
If it is the case that anti-Tory voters (which even now is most of the country) are spontaneously coalescing behind the best-placed challenger, why do you think people would vote for the losing Green Party candidate instead of Labour? Would they really prefer to continue with the incompetent, crooked Conservatives?
Doing a re-read of Space Launch Systems stuff. Amazing that NASA are still using a fully disposable system when SpaceX have everything reusable.
Worse than that; in the case of the engines, they're disposing of items that were reusable. As to why, it's a combination of factors:
*) The SLS project started in 2911, when SpaceX had only launched the initial version of Falcon 9 twice, before SpaceX had decided on propulsive landing, and ?four? years before a F9 successfully landed.
*) The SLS is *very* large compared to the F9. The issues of recovery are so much greater, especially as the first stage will be travelling *much* faster than the F9 first stage does (in the case of F9, they stage early - and have a larger second stage, to keep speeds down and to make recovery easier).
*) Economics. The flight rate of SLS is too low to make reusability economical. Back in the 1960s, von Braun estimated over 100 flights would have to be manifested to make Saturn V reuse economic to develop.
*) Politics. The SLS uses ex-Shuttle parts to keep politicians happy - they did not want ex-Shuttle factories to close.
All in all, it made sense back in 2011. *If* SpaceX's SH/SS combo actually works, it won't have many flights. *If*.
There's also Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket, which will have a reusable first stage, and potentially a reusable second stage as well. And ULA are going for some form of SMART reuse with Vulcan - though they have the same problem of high-altitude, high-speed staging.
Yeah. Its a big Shuttle tank with shuttle engines on the bottom, with big shuttle boosters attached to the side. All of which goes in the bin on every launch. Whereas Elon will be able to hoist more than double the payload for a fraction of the cost reusing the entire system.
They may as well paint the SLS with dollar bills as that is a fortune in taxpayer money literally going up in smoke.
In Georgia, Republican candidate for governor Kandiss Taylor ended up losing the primary by 70 points, coming in third with less than 4 percent of the vote behind incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp and Trump-endorsed former Sen. David Perdue.
I think this is one of the PR risks (for Ukraine) if the war beds in for years and becomes background. People elsewhere lose the shock and associated clarity engendered by the initial event - an unprovoked assault on one country by another - which was not at all complex and required no sophisticated geopolitical thinking to understand or opine on.
Doing a re-read of Space Launch Systems stuff. Amazing that NASA are still using a fully disposable system when SpaceX have everything reusable.
Worse than that; in the case of the engines, they're disposing of items that were reusable. As to why, it's a combination of factors:
*) The SLS project started in 2911, when SpaceX had only launched the initial version of Falcon 9 twice, before SpaceX had decided on propulsive landing, and ?four? years before a F9 successfully landed.
*) The SLS is *very* large compared to the F9. The issues of recovery are so much greater, especially as the first stage will be travelling *much* faster than the F9 first stage does (in the case of F9, they stage early - and have a larger second stage, to keep speeds down and to make recovery easier).
*) Economics. The flight rate of SLS is too low to make reusability economical. Back in the 1960s, von Braun estimated over 100 flights would have to be manifested to make Saturn V reuse economic to develop.
*) Politics. The SLS uses ex-Shuttle parts to keep politicians happy - they did not want ex-Shuttle factories to close.
All in all, it made sense back in 2011. *If* SpaceX's SH/SS combo actually works, it won't have many flights. *If*.
There's also Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket, which will have a reusable first stage, and potentially a reusable second stage as well. And ULA are going for some form of SMART reuse with Vulcan - though they have the same problem of high-altitude, high-speed staging.
Yeah. Its a big Shuttle tank with shuttle engines on the bottom, with big shuttle boosters attached to the side. All of which goes in the bin on every launch. Whereas Elon will be able to hoist more than double the payload for a fraction of the cost reusing the entire system.
They may as well paint the SLS with dollar bills as that is a fortune in taxpayer money literally going up in smoke.
*If* SH/SS works, that is. And if it can be man-rated...
Is there any decent analysis out there explaining what is going on here. Not just describing the trend but explaining it. What's to stop it at £700, £1000, £2000 etc..
The gas market seems to have taken on the characteristics of crypto.
Not sure if mentioned elsewhere here but looks like the big Ukrainian offensive on Kherson may be on - reports coming through that some of the Russian frontline defences have been breached.
Is there any decent analysis out there explaining what is going on here. Not just describing the trend but explaining it. What's to stop it at £700, £1000, £2000 etc..
The gas market seems to have taken on the characteristics of crypto.
I have been wondering if we might see some eye watering deflation stats this time next year.
Long term most of the structural drivers point to global deflation: an ageing, stagnating and then declining population across Europe, Asia and the Americas coupled with increasing resource efficiency, cheap renewables and electrification, and automation / AI. Those are all deflationary signals.
The inflationary counter signals are a continuing population boom in Africa (but I expect this will be accompanied by a productivity boom), geopolitical decoupling and supply chain shocks as has happened in 2022.
Not sure if mentioned elsewhere here but looks like the big Ukrainian offensive on Kherson may be on - reports coming through that some of the Russian frontline defences have been breached.
Someone else mentioned rumours on Twitter. Are there any more reliable sources?
On Rough gas storage, what is the mechanism by which it saves us money? Wasn’t it run by a private company, which would take the difference between the cheap cost of filling it up, and the high spot prices when it was emptied? Or was just a government program, and the private company was just paid a yearly fee for running it?
Its not the money, its the security. Gas wells can only operate within certain flow limits. In the winter they cannot flow fast enough to provide the gas we need whilst in the summer they produce more gas than can be used. So having storage means you can keep producing at full rate and the excess gas is stored for times when production cannot match demand.
However, as mentioned in Energy News only this morning, there are serious doubts in the industry about the feasibility of brining Rough back online. I know I have banged on about this for a while but just throwing money and good wishes at something doesn't overcome certain fundamental issues. Rough is old and both the reservoir and topsides have suffered from wear and tear to the extent that it may not be feasible to bring it back online for any great length of time. I hope this is not he case and there may be some wizards at Centrica who can overcome these problems but I am not hopeful it is going to make much difference.
Any truth to the rumours of the Reading festival turning into Woodstock ‘99 last night, or is it just the tabloids bigging-up a couple of minor incidents?
Revellers at this year's Reading Festival have reported leaving early after witnessing ugly scenes of tent-burning, fighting and looting on the final day of the event.
Not sure if mentioned elsewhere here but looks like the big Ukrainian offensive on Kherson may be on - reports coming through that some of the Russian frontline defences have been breached.
Yes this does seem to be the one. High risk but high potential reward - if it runs into the ground a lot of Western backers might lose heart. If it succeeds we might see Russian full scale panic and a domino effect of quick victories for Ukraine.
Not sure if mentioned elsewhere here but looks like the big Ukrainian offensive on Kherson may be on - reports coming through that some of the Russian frontline defences have been breached.
Someone else mentioned rumours on Twitter. Are there any more reliable sources?
I think this is one of the PR risks (for Ukraine) if the war beds in for years and becomes background. People elsewhere lose the shock and associated clarity engendered by the initial event - an unprovoked assault on one country by another - which was not at all complex and required no sophisticated geopolitical thinking to understand or opine on.
The war in the Donbass started in 2014.
During the French election - I kid you not - Emmanuel Macron was sold as a war leader.
Not sure if mentioned elsewhere here but looks like the big Ukrainian offensive on Kherson may be on - reports coming through that some of the Russian frontline defences have been breached.
Someone else mentioned rumours on Twitter. Are there any more reliable sources?
She needs to then translate that into voteshare in No 10 and sustain it. If she did then even if she still lost the Tory majority she could still win most seats
She needs the conservative party to get behind her 100% once elected otherwise the party faces extinction in 2024
Will you come on bord and accept Johnson is over and the party needs to move on
Well I will come 100% behind her if she is elected leader despite voting for Sunak as I have every other Tory leader since I joined the party in 1998. However if she is trailing well behind in the polls this time next year whether the party will do so is another matter.
As for extinction the party is still far better placed than in Spring 2019 when it not only trailed Labour but had been overtaken by the Brexit Party as the main party of the right too
Although not impossible (look what happened to the Liberals) I tend to agree that under FPTP it is extremely unlikely that the Tories will face extinction. At worse they will go into opposition as they did before and come back stronger. As before they may go through a few leaders before reinventing themselves.
True but then of course the main reason the Liberals were overtaken was the fact that all working class male voters over 21 gained the vote by 1918, joined by all working class women by 1928 and those working class voters mostly voted Labour so Labour overtook the Liberals as the Tories main opponents. Whereas in the 19th century the electorate were mostly middle class and voted Tory or Liberal
I've not studied any of this. What you say makes senses, but is it as simple as that?
In large part. It was the widening of the franchise and the growth of trade unions as the economy industrialised and moved to the cities that was pivotal to the growth of Labour and the relative decline of the Liberals.
If the Tories however were overtaken as the main party off the right it would mainly be on ideological grounds, hence Farage's Brexit Party briefly overtook May's Tories in the polls in Spring 2019 after she failed to deliver Brexit
I wish it was only 'relative decline'. I fully accept I am in a minority as a Liberal. Even when we are doing well it is important to note our core vote is still very low indeed (4 - 5%) and much of the rest is due to protest against Tory/Labour.
Indeed although the LD core vote would likely be a bit higher under PR. The LD core vote is economically and socially liberal and anti Brexit now. Davey is more likely to pick up Remain voting Tories at the next general election who dislike Truss than any votes from Labour in my view. Labour voters who liked Corbyn but dislike Starmer are more likely to go Green than LD
Although under PR the LDs might split and I might find myself in an even smaller group!!!
I suspect there will be a Social Democratic party made up of some from the right of Labour and Social Democrats from the LDs. Although I would be happy in coalition with such a group, it is not a group I could join.
There might also be a grouping of the Left from the Conservatives which a number of LDs would join. Again I would be happy in coalition with this group, but again I am not sure about joining it.
I suspect I would be in a proper radical free market liberal group with a small core vote, or just a floating voter, between the two above.
Not sure if mentioned elsewhere here but looks like the big Ukrainian offensive on Kherson may be on - reports coming through that some of the Russian frontline defences have been breached.
Someone else mentioned rumours on Twitter. Are there any more reliable sources?
Not really atm - and I wouldn't expect any for a while. The Ukes would not want to signal their intentions, and the Russians would not want to admit any defeats. Besides, the fog of war will still be hanging over the battlefield.
Any truth to the rumours of the Reading festival turning into Woodstock ‘99 last night, or is it just the tabloids bigging-up a couple of minor incidents?
Revellers at this year's Reading Festival have reported leaving early after witnessing ugly scenes of tent-burning, fighting and looting on the final day of the event.
She needs to then translate that into voteshare in No 10 and sustain it. If she did then even if she still lost the Tory majority she could still win most seats
She needs the conservative party to get behind her 100% once elected otherwise the party faces extinction in 2024
Will you come on bord and accept Johnson is over and the party needs to move on
Well I will come 100% behind her if she is elected leader despite voting for Sunak as I have every other Tory leader since I joined the party in 1998. However if she is trailing well behind in the polls this time next year whether the party will do so is another matter.
As for extinction the party is still far better placed than in Spring 2019 when it not only trailed Labour but had been overtaken by the Brexit Party as the main party of the right too
Although not impossible (look what happened to the Liberals) I tend to agree that under FPTP it is extremely unlikely that the Tories will face extinction. At worse they will go into opposition as they did before and come back stronger. As before they may go through a few leaders before reinventing themselves.
True but then of course the main reason the Liberals were overtaken was the fact that all working class male voters over 21 gained the vote by 1918, joined by all working class women by 1928 and those working class voters mostly voted Labour so Labour overtook the Liberals as the Tories main opponents. Whereas in the 19th century the electorate were mostly middle class and voted Tory or Liberal
I've not studied any of this. What you say makes senses, but is it as simple as that?
In large part. It was the widening of the franchise and the growth of trade unions as the economy industrialised and moved to the cities that was pivotal to the growth of Labour and the relative decline of the Liberals.
If the Tories however were overtaken as the main party off the right it would mainly be on ideological grounds, hence Farage's Brexit Party briefly overtook May's Tories in the polls in Spring 2019 after she failed to deliver Brexit
I wish it was only 'relative decline'. I fully accept I am in a minority as a Liberal. Even when we are doing well it is important to note our core vote is still very low indeed (4 - 5%) and much of the rest is due to protest against Tory/Labour.
Indeed although the LD core vote would likely be a bit higher under PR. The LD core vote is economically and socially liberal and anti Brexit now. Davey is more likely to pick up Remain voting Tories at the next general election who dislike Truss than any votes from Labour in my view. Labour voters who liked Corbyn but dislike Starmer are more likely to go Green than LD
Although under PR the LDs might split and I might find myself in an even smaller group!!!
I suspect there will be a Social Democratic party made up of some from the right of Labour and Social Democrats from the LDs. Although I would be happy in coalition with such a group, it is not a group I could join.
There might also be a grouping of the Left from the Conservatives which a number of LDs would join. Again I would be happy in coalition with this group, but again I am not sure about joining it.
I suspect I would be in a proper radical free market liberal group with a small core vote, or just a floating voter, between the two above.
You can over salami slice the possibilities, though. Presumably there would be a 5% threshold? Not sure your group would make that.
Surely there should be simple laws that force developers to construct roads/sewers up to a decent standard, with insurance/money set aside in case they go bust?
Surely there should be simple laws that force developers to construct roads/sewers up to a decent standard, with insurance/money set aside in case they go bust?
It’s called a road bond and is normally standard procedure and a condition of planning.
Surely there should be simple laws that force developers to construct roads/sewers up to a decent standard, with insurance/money set aside in case they go bust?
I don't know the legal side of it, but the roads around here take years to get adopted. The road we live on was adopted twelve or thirteen years after the road was built - and many, many years after the builders let the immediate area. But they required minimal work to be adopted - the addition of some tiny round studs to denote where the council-owned paths were being the major one.
Certainly, in the experience of our new-build town, the council and developers are very slow in getting roads adopted.
She needs to then translate that into voteshare in No 10 and sustain it. If she did then even if she still lost the Tory majority she could still win most seats
She needs the conservative party to get behind her 100% once elected otherwise the party faces extinction in 2024
Will you come on bord and accept Johnson is over and the party needs to move on
Well I will come 100% behind her if she is elected leader despite voting for Sunak as I have every other Tory leader since I joined the party in 1998. However if she is trailing well behind in the polls this time next year whether the party will do so is another matter.
As for extinction the party is still far better placed than in Spring 2019 when it not only trailed Labour but had been overtaken by the Brexit Party as the main party of the right too
Although not impossible (look what happened to the Liberals) I tend to agree that under FPTP it is extremely unlikely that the Tories will face extinction. At worse they will go into opposition as they did before and come back stronger. As before they may go through a few leaders before reinventing themselves.
True but then of course the main reason the Liberals were overtaken was the fact that all working class male voters over 21 gained the vote by 1918, joined by all working class women by 1928 and those working class voters mostly voted Labour so Labour overtook the Liberals as the Tories main opponents. Whereas in the 19th century the electorate were mostly middle class and voted Tory or Liberal
I've not studied any of this. What you say makes senses, but is it as simple as that?
In large part. It was the widening of the franchise and the growth of trade unions as the economy industrialised and moved to the cities that was pivotal to the growth of Labour and the relative decline of the Liberals.
If the Tories however were overtaken as the main party off the right it would mainly be on ideological grounds, hence Farage's Brexit Party briefly overtook May's Tories in the polls in Spring 2019 after she failed to deliver Brexit
I wish it was only 'relative decline'. I fully accept I am in a minority as a Liberal. Even when we are doing well it is important to note our core vote is still very low indeed (4 - 5%) and much of the rest is due to protest against Tory/Labour.
Indeed although the LD core vote would likely be a bit higher under PR. The LD core vote is economically and socially liberal and anti Brexit now. Davey is more likely to pick up Remain voting Tories at the next general election who dislike Truss than any votes from Labour in my view. Labour voters who liked Corbyn but dislike Starmer are more likely to go Green than LD
Unduly optimistic, young HY - from a Tory point of view, of course. How many seats do you think the Green Party will win next time? And which ones? They do well only when the Liberal Democrats make way for them - as in the case of Swinson's anti-Brexit strategy in 2019, for example.
If it is the case that anti-Tory voters (which even now is most of the country) are spontaneously coalescing behind the best-placed challenger, why do you think people would vote for the losing Green Party candidate instead of Labour? Would they really prefer to continue with the incompetent, crooked Conservatives?
In marginal seats maybe not. In Labour safe seats in inner cities and university towns plenty of Corbyn supporters will cast a protest vote for the Greens next time rather than Starmer Labour
On Rough gas storage, what is the mechanism by which it saves us money? Wasn’t it run by a private company, which would take the difference between the cheap cost of filling it up, and the high spot prices when it was emptied? Or was just a government program, and the private company was just paid a yearly fee for running it?
Its not the money, its the security. Gas wells can only operate within certain flow limits. In the winter they cannot flow fast enough to provide the gas we need whilst in the summer they produce more gas than can be used. So having storage means you can keep producing at full rate and the excess gas is stored for times when production cannot match demand.
However, as mentioned in Energy News only this morning, there are serious doubts in the industry about the feasibility of brining Rough back online. I know I have banged on about this for a while but just throwing money and good wishes at something doesn't overcome certain fundamental issues. Rough is old and both the reservoir and topsides have suffered from wear and tear to the extent that it may not be feasible to bring it back online for any great length of time. I hope this is not he case and there may be some wizards at Centrica who can overcome these problems but I am not hopeful it is going to make much difference.
Thanks. On security, though, isn’t having a paid-for LNG cargo steaming towards us with a know arrival date also a form of secure storage (unless it sinks)?
Not sure if mentioned elsewhere here but looks like the big Ukrainian offensive on Kherson may be on - reports coming through that some of the Russian frontline defences have been breached.
Someone else mentioned rumours on Twitter. Are there any more reliable sources?
I think Ukraine has confirmed.
Very early stages yet. Some suggestion that it could be disinfo to test the morale and resolve of the defending Russian forces. Or it could be a relatively minor tactical advance that is being exaggerated, rather than a large strategic push, similar to the crossing of the Inhulets river at Davydiv Brid in late May. We'll see.
OT lots of claims on the twitters about the Ukrainian Kherson offensive finally happening.
We shall see. I've never understood the assumption of stalemate. The Russian forces were all along the border months before the war started. No one assumed the invasion wouldn't happen because they didn't go in straight away. However the Russians have obviously increased their troop numbers in Kherson in the last month and some in Ukraine were saying that they would need to wait for further American kit to arrive in the Autumn.
People *were* saying that because Russian troops had been there for so long, they would not invade. Including (from memory) one poster on here.
One (of many) things I don't know is whether the autumn or winter weather will favour Ukraine or Russia. Both will have troops well used to the climate that helped destroy German and French armies in past centuries.
If the Russian winter kit is as poor as the kit they had in February for the invasion, then they'll be going to battle in flip-flops....
She needs to then translate that into voteshare in No 10 and sustain it. If she did then even if she still lost the Tory majority she could still win most seats
She needs the conservative party to get behind her 100% once elected otherwise the party faces extinction in 2024
Will you come on bord and accept Johnson is over and the party needs to move on
Well I will come 100% behind her if she is elected leader despite voting for Sunak as I have every other Tory leader since I joined the party in 1998. However if she is trailing well behind in the polls this time next year whether the party will do so is another matter.
As for extinction the party is still far better placed than in Spring 2019 when it not only trailed Labour but had been overtaken by the Brexit Party as the main party of the right too
Although not impossible (look what happened to the Liberals) I tend to agree that under FPTP it is extremely unlikely that the Tories will face extinction. At worse they will go into opposition as they did before and come back stronger. As before they may go through a few leaders before reinventing themselves.
True but then of course the main reason the Liberals were overtaken was the fact that all working class male voters over 21 gained the vote by 1918, joined by all working class women by 1928 and those working class voters mostly voted Labour so Labour overtook the Liberals as the Tories main opponents. Whereas in the 19th century the electorate were mostly middle class and voted Tory or Liberal
I've not studied any of this. What you say makes senses, but is it as simple as that?
In large part. It was the widening of the franchise and the growth of trade unions as the economy industrialised and moved to the cities that was pivotal to the growth of Labour and the relative decline of the Liberals.
If the Tories however were overtaken as the main party off the right it would mainly be on ideological grounds, hence Farage's Brexit Party briefly overtook May's Tories in the polls in Spring 2019 after she failed to deliver Brexit
I wish it was only 'relative decline'. I fully accept I am in a minority as a Liberal. Even when we are doing well it is important to note our core vote is still very low indeed (4 - 5%) and much of the rest is due to protest against Tory/Labour.
Indeed although the LD core vote would likely be a bit higher under PR. The LD core vote is economically and socially liberal and anti Brexit now. Davey is more likely to pick up Remain voting Tories at the next general election who dislike Truss than any votes from Labour in my view. Labour voters who liked Corbyn but dislike Starmer are more likely to go Green than LD
Unduly optimistic, young HY - from a Tory point of view, of course. How many seats do you think the Green Party will win next time? And which ones? They do well only when the Liberal Democrats make way for them - as in the case of Swinson's anti-Brexit strategy in 2019, for example.
If it is the case that anti-Tory voters (which even now is most of the country) are spontaneously coalescing behind the best-placed challenger, why do you think people would vote for the losing Green Party candidate instead of Labour? Would they really prefer to continue with the incompetent, crooked Conservatives?
In marginal seats maybe not. In Labour safe seats in inner cities and university towns plenty of Corbyn supporters will cast a protest vote for the Greens next time rather than Starmer Labour
If they are Labour safe seats, not much hope for your Tories there!
Talk this morning about reforming the EU energy market. Everyone assumes that this is all about Russia. However Russia provides less than half of Europe's gas. Given the inevitable economising that will take place and alternatives sought do the current prices make sense or is there something fundamentally wrong with the energy market?
As I said last week I think that the current prices are being driven much more by speculators than by people forward buying gas that they actually need. Government intervention by those with stocks might well have a really significant impact on the futures price at this point.
So what degree of the price is speculation do you think ? How does the price of speculation be removed or reduced ?
Total guess but I would suggest at least 50% of the gas price is speculation at the moment. When you look at the surplus there was before the war and the amount taken out of circulation by the Ukraine invasion the reaction in the price is extremely disproportionate.
The problem is what can be done about it. What it needs is a weight of selling in the market that causes the price to collapse which causes those on margins to panic and sell some more to close out their positions etc. Who could do that? Governments with substantial stocks could but lots of producers with deep pockets have a strong vested interest in keeping the price high becuase they are coining it in. Stopping a counter intervention by them would be the tricky part.
I remember many years ago now I was involved in a case where a farmer had lost £1m or £2m by playing the potato futures market. The expert explained that less than 5% of the contracts on that market actually involved a physical delivery of potatoes. The rest was speculators seeking to make a buck. It would not surprise me if the current market for gas was similar. Today the future price is up 7.62%. In a single day. What has changed in the supply and the demand to justify that? Nothing of note. But those who bought futures last week are doing very well.
Anyone actually know about the gas futures market ? @rcs1000 ?
As far as I know (which is not that much) prices are being determined by purchases of physical gas cargoes in the scrabble to get sufficient supplies for this winter. The supply into Europe has from Russia been tightly restricted (and much of that gas can’t physically be shipped elsewhere), and the market represents the price of diverting LNG cargoes which in more normal times would be heading to Asia, by outbidding what’s being paid there.
Of course it could turn quite sharply. For example…
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62710522 …Germany - the largest importer of Russian gas in 2020 - has been racing to bolster its gas reserves before winter despite Russia cutting deliveries. Its aim is to fill its gas capacity to 85% by October. It has implemented energy-saving measures to do so. Economy Minister Robert Habeck said such measures - along with buying gas from alternative suppliers - had enabled Germany to fulfil its goal sooner than anticipated. He estimated that the 85% target could be reached by the start of September…
This circles back to the conversation I was having with @Richard_Tyndall
The UK has played a very significant role in ensuring that Germany's gas storage is full heading into the winter. If that helps ensure continuity of supply in the winter, when we need the imports, then that will be a very appropriate and wise decision.
We don't need an EU bureaucracy to co-ordinate the gas market. What we can use however is sensible governments co-operating on an international scale between allies to ensure that Putin's 'weapon' of gas supply is dented and that the West can all get through this winter without turning on each other with escalating autarky.
With respect, that doesn’t really mean anything. Either the market operates - with the results we’re seeing - or governments take steps to cooperate and intervene directly.
Calling that ‘bureaucracy’ or something else doesn’t change what that is.
In general the market works, with the right incentives. The price going up so less valued (economically) demand falls out is the market working as it's supposed to.
If you want the market circumvented, eg you want demand to be met as it's strategically or politically important, then that's when the government need to get involved.
Though if governments are getting involved the elected governments of the countries concerned can cooperate rather, via their own bureaucracies and diplomats, rather than an additional supranational bureaucracy on top.
Not sure if mentioned elsewhere here but looks like the big Ukrainian offensive on Kherson may be on - reports coming through that some of the Russian frontline defences have been breached.
Someone else mentioned rumours on Twitter. Are there any more reliable sources?
I've just seen reports elsewhere of the Ukrainian counter offensive in Kerson regen and thought I would check here, to see if there was more.
Sadly I don't know if accurate, or how big if accurate, or even how its going if it is happening.
it does not say much, or more prosily it does caveat that its all unverifiable.
But it suggests that HYMARs are being used to fire directly at infantry positions, together with a lot of artillery and some air assists. And that the first layer of Russian defences has been breached.
Hoping its accurate and this is the start of a big Ukrainian victory, but also ready to be disappointed.
If anybody has any more links or info, please share.
Not sure if mentioned elsewhere here but looks like the big Ukrainian offensive on Kherson may be on - reports coming through that some of the Russian frontline defences have been breached.
Someone else mentioned rumours on Twitter. Are there any more reliable sources?
I've just seen reports elsewhere of the Ukrainian counter offensive in Kerson regen and thought I would check here, to see if there was more.
< snip >
If anybody has any more links or info, please share.
Apparently Russian state media is reporting an evacuation of people in Nova Khakhovka to bomb shelters, so clearly some sort of unusually intense offensive activity.
Nova Khakhovka is on the southern side of the Dniepr river, where there is a hydroelectric dam, and the road and rail bridges that have been targeted repeatedly recently.
Not sure if mentioned elsewhere here but looks like the big Ukrainian offensive on Kherson may be on - reports coming through that some of the Russian frontline defences have been breached.
Someone else mentioned rumours on Twitter. Are there any more reliable sources?
I've just seen reports elsewhere of the Ukrainian counter offensive in Kerson regen and thought I would check here, to see if there was more.
Sadly I don't know if accurate, or how big if accurate, or even how its going if it is happening.
it does not say much, or more prosily it does caveat that its all unverifiable.
But it suggests that HYMARs are being used to fire directly at infantry positions, together with a lot of artillery and some air assists. And that the first layer of Russian defences has been breached.
Hoping its accurate and this is the start of a big Ukrainian victory, but also ready to be disappointed.
If anybody has any more links or info, please share.
Just seen this, apparently, Ukrainian forces have just taken a position 2.5 km from yesterdays front line. sounds promising.
Not sure if mentioned elsewhere here but looks like the big Ukrainian offensive on Kherson may be on - reports coming through that some of the Russian frontline defences have been breached.
Someone else mentioned rumours on Twitter. Are there any more reliable sources?
I've just seen reports elsewhere of the Ukrainian counter offensive in Kerson regen and thought I would check here, to see if there was more.
Sadly I don't know if accurate, or how big if accurate, or even how its going if it is happening.
it does not say much, or more prosily it does caveat that its all unverifiable.
But it suggests that HYMARs are being used to fire directly at infantry positions, together with a lot of artillery and some air assists. And that the first layer of Russian defences has been breached.
Hoping its accurate and this is the start of a big Ukrainian victory, but also ready to be disappointed.
If anybody has any more links or info, please share.
She needs to then translate that into voteshare in No 10 and sustain it. If she did then even if she still lost the Tory majority she could still win most seats
She needs the conservative party to get behind her 100% once elected otherwise the party faces extinction in 2024
Will you come on bord and accept Johnson is over and the party needs to move on
Well I will come 100% behind her if she is elected leader despite voting for Sunak as I have every other Tory leader since I joined the party in 1998. However if she is trailing well behind in the polls this time next year whether the party will do so is another matter.
As for extinction the party is still far better placed than in Spring 2019 when it not only trailed Labour but had been overtaken by the Brexit Party as the main party of the right too
Although not impossible (look what happened to the Liberals) I tend to agree that under FPTP it is extremely unlikely that the Tories will face extinction. At worse they will go into opposition as they did before and come back stronger. As before they may go through a few leaders before reinventing themselves.
True but then of course the main reason the Liberals were overtaken was the fact that all working class male voters over 21 gained the vote by 1918, joined by all working class women by 1928 and those working class voters mostly voted Labour so Labour overtook the Liberals as the Tories main opponents. Whereas in the 19th century the electorate were mostly middle class and voted Tory or Liberal
I've not studied any of this. What you say makes senses, but is it as simple as that?
In large part. It was the widening of the franchise and the growth of trade unions as the economy industrialised and moved to the cities that was pivotal to the growth of Labour and the relative decline of the Liberals.
If the Tories however were overtaken as the main party off the right it would mainly be on ideological grounds, hence Farage's Brexit Party briefly overtook May's Tories in the polls in Spring 2019 after she failed to deliver Brexit
I wish it was only 'relative decline'. I fully accept I am in a minority as a Liberal. Even when we are doing well it is important to note our core vote is still very low indeed (4 - 5%) and much of the rest is due to protest against Tory/Labour.
Indeed although the LD core vote would likely be a bit higher under PR. The LD core vote is economically and socially liberal and anti Brexit now. Davey is more likely to pick up Remain voting Tories at the next general election who dislike Truss than any votes from Labour in my view. Labour voters who liked Corbyn but dislike Starmer are more likely to go Green than LD
Unduly optimistic, young HY - from a Tory point of view, of course. How many seats do you think the Green Party will win next time? And which ones? They do well only when the Liberal Democrats make way for them - as in the case of Swinson's anti-Brexit strategy in 2019, for example.
If it is the case that anti-Tory voters (which even now is most of the country) are spontaneously coalescing behind the best-placed challenger, why do you think people would vote for the losing Green Party candidate instead of Labour? Would they really prefer to continue with the incompetent, crooked Conservatives?
In marginal seats maybe not. In Labour safe seats in inner cities and university towns plenty of Corbyn supporters will cast a protest vote for the Greens next time rather than Starmer Labour
If they are Labour safe seats, not much hope for your Tories there!
I made it for the first time yesterday, and it has been an enormous hit in the Smithson family. No mess. Delicious. Extremely unhealthy. What's not to like?
Is that a Spanish American English French Toast made in China?
All kicking off in Kherson this afternoon, according to multiple reports from both sides of the conflict.
The invaders had better pray, that there’s enough of a bridge left for them to retreat back across the Deniper!
First step Kherson, would be karmic justice if by this time next year the invaders have been kicked out of Crimea too.
I think a good outcome for Ukraine would be that "normal" Russians are unable to live there for fear of HIMARS, and the Russian Navy/Air force can't use it as a base.
Would the next logical step after Kherson be to try and take out the Kerch bridge?
It’s almost impossible to take out the bridge itself, it’s a huge modern structure - think the second Severn or Forth road bridges, but double-decker to accommodate rail too.
Getting close enough to take out the approaches to it though, that should definitely be the next target.
She needs to then translate that into voteshare in No 10 and sustain it. If she did then even if she still lost the Tory majority she could still win most seats
She needs the conservative party to get behind her 100% once elected otherwise the party faces extinction in 2024
Will you come on bord and accept Johnson is over and the party needs to move on
Well I will come 100% behind her if she is elected leader despite voting for Sunak as I have every other Tory leader since I joined the party in 1998. However if she is trailing well behind in the polls this time next year whether the party will do so is another matter.
As for extinction the party is still far better placed than in Spring 2019 when it not only trailed Labour but had been overtaken by the Brexit Party as the main party of the right too
Although not impossible (look what happened to the Liberals) I tend to agree that under FPTP it is extremely unlikely that the Tories will face extinction. At worse they will go into opposition as they did before and come back stronger. As before they may go through a few leaders before reinventing themselves.
True but then of course the main reason the Liberals were overtaken was the fact that all working class male voters over 21 gained the vote by 1918, joined by all working class women by 1928 and those working class voters mostly voted Labour so Labour overtook the Liberals as the Tories main opponents. Whereas in the 19th century the electorate were mostly middle class and voted Tory or Liberal
I've not studied any of this. What you say makes senses, but is it as simple as that?
In large part. It was the widening of the franchise and the growth of trade unions as the economy industrialised and moved to the cities that was pivotal to the growth of Labour and the relative decline of the Liberals.
If the Tories however were overtaken as the main party off the right it would mainly be on ideological grounds, hence Farage's Brexit Party briefly overtook May's Tories in the polls in Spring 2019 after she failed to deliver Brexit
I wish it was only 'relative decline'. I fully accept I am in a minority as a Liberal. Even when we are doing well it is important to note our core vote is still very low indeed (4 - 5%) and much of the rest is due to protest against Tory/Labour.
Indeed although the LD core vote would likely be a bit higher under PR. The LD core vote is economically and socially liberal and anti Brexit now. Davey is more likely to pick up Remain voting Tories at the next general election who dislike Truss than any votes from Labour in my view. Labour voters who liked Corbyn but dislike Starmer are more likely to go Green than LD
Unduly optimistic, young HY - from a Tory point of view, of course. How many seats do you think the Green Party will win next time? And which ones? They do well only when the Liberal Democrats make way for them - as in the case of Swinson's anti-Brexit strategy in 2019, for example.
If it is the case that anti-Tory voters (which even now is most of the country) are spontaneously coalescing behind the best-placed challenger, why do you think people would vote for the losing Green Party candidate instead of Labour? Would they really prefer to continue with the incompetent, crooked Conservatives?
In marginal seats maybe not. In Labour safe seats in inner cities and university towns plenty of Corbyn supporters will cast a protest vote for the Greens next time rather than Starmer Labour
If they are Labour safe seats, not much hope for your Tories there!
We said that about Sedgefield once.
At the last election in 2019, the Green Party vote there was down to 2.3%. Young HY was trying to make the point that Labour voters would be stampeding to the Green Party, thus implicitly allowing the Tories to win. I don't see much sign of that.
Would the next logical step after Kherson be to try and take out the Kerch bridge?
I would have thought that the best result, would be for the Ukraine's to get to what's left of the bridge, and other crossing points, with large amounts of Russian equipment and more impotently men stuck, effectively surrounded and then have to surrender.
That would be hard if not impossible for the Russians to Propagandises to portray as a clever diversion as they did with the restreet around Kive, and therefore have many knock on effects.
But we still need to see how successful this all is first.
Not sure if mentioned elsewhere here but looks like the big Ukrainian offensive on Kherson may be on - reports coming through that some of the Russian frontline defences have been breached.
Someone else mentioned rumours on Twitter. Are there any more reliable sources?
I've just seen reports elsewhere of the Ukrainian counter offensive in Kerson regen and thought I would check here, to see if there was more.
Sadly I don't know if accurate, or how big if accurate, or even how its going if it is happening.
it does not say much, or more prosily it does caveat that its all unverifiable.
But it suggests that HYMARs are being used to fire directly at infantry positions, together with a lot of artillery and some air assists. And that the first layer of Russian defences has been breached.
Hoping its accurate and this is the start of a big Ukrainian victory, but also ready to be disappointed.
If anybody has any more links or info, please share.
Would the next logical step after Kherson be to try and take out the Kerch bridge?
I would have thought that the best result, would be for the Ukraine's to get to what's left of the bridge, and other crossing points, with large amounts of Russian equipment and more impotently men stuck, effectively surrounded and then have to surrender.
That would be hard if not impossible for the Russians to Propagandises to portray as a clever diversion as they did with the restreet around Kive, and therefore have many knock on effects.
But we still need to see how successful this all is first.
I was referencing the mega bridge between Russia and Crimea.
Would the next logical step after Kherson be to try and take out the Kerch bridge?
There are many possibilities. Depends on where the Russian front line is weak, what weapons and capabilities the Ukrainians have. The Ukrainians would love to take out the Kerch bridge, doing so would have huge symbolic value, as well as making it harder for the Russian to supply Crimea.
Earlier in the summer, after the Ukrainians had some success with a counteroffensive around Kharkiv, there was speculation of a Ukrainian advance east from Kharkiv to cut off Russian supply lines to Izyium. A push south from Zaporizhzhia has also been mooted - there's been a lot of Ukrainian attacks on Russian bases and logistics around Melitopol.
Would the next logical step after Kherson be to try and take out the Kerch bridge?
I would have thought that the best result, would be for the Ukraine's to get to what's left of the bridge, and other crossing points, with large amounts of Russian equipment and more impotently men stuck, effectively surrounded and then have to surrender.
That would be hard if not impossible for the Russians to Propagandises to portray as a clever diversion as they did with the restreet around Kive, and therefore have many knock on effects.
But we still need to see how successful this all is first.
I was referencing the mega bridge between Russia and Crimea.
On Rough gas storage, what is the mechanism by which it saves us money? Wasn’t it run by a private company, which would take the difference between the cheap cost of filling it up, and the high spot prices when it was emptied? Or was just a government program, and the private company was just paid a yearly fee for running it?
Its not the money, its the security. Gas wells can only operate within certain flow limits. In the winter they cannot flow fast enough to provide the gas we need whilst in the summer they produce more gas than can be used. So having storage means you can keep producing at full rate and the excess gas is stored for times when production cannot match demand.
However, as mentioned in Energy News only this morning, there are serious doubts in the industry about the feasibility of brining Rough back online. I know I have banged on about this for a while but just throwing money and good wishes at something doesn't overcome certain fundamental issues. Rough is old and both the reservoir and topsides have suffered from wear and tear to the extent that it may not be feasible to bring it back online for any great length of time. I hope this is not he case and there may be some wizards at Centrica who can overcome these problems but I am not hopeful it is going to make much difference.
Thanks. On security, though, isn’t having a paid-for LNG cargo steaming towards us with a know arrival date also a form of secure storage (unless it sinks)?
Only if you can get it. There are a limited number of LNG vessels in the world and everyone will be crying out for them. Nor are they necessarily a secure supply in extremis. Certainly not as secure as having your own storage for your own gas.
She needs to then translate that into voteshare in No 10 and sustain it. If she did then even if she still lost the Tory majority she could still win most seats
She needs the conservative party to get behind her 100% once elected otherwise the party faces extinction in 2024
Will you come on bord and accept Johnson is over and the party needs to move on
Well I will come 100% behind her if she is elected leader despite voting for Sunak as I have every other Tory leader since I joined the party in 1998. However if she is trailing well behind in the polls this time next year whether the party will do so is another matter.
As for extinction the party is still far better placed than in Spring 2019 when it not only trailed Labour but had been overtaken by the Brexit Party as the main party of the right too
Although not impossible (look what happened to the Liberals) I tend to agree that under FPTP it is extremely unlikely that the Tories will face extinction. At worse they will go into opposition as they did before and come back stronger. As before they may go through a few leaders before reinventing themselves.
True but then of course the main reason the Liberals were overtaken was the fact that all working class male voters over 21 gained the vote by 1918, joined by all working class women by 1928 and those working class voters mostly voted Labour so Labour overtook the Liberals as the Tories main opponents. Whereas in the 19th century the electorate were mostly middle class and voted Tory or Liberal
I've not studied any of this. What you say makes senses, but is it as simple as that?
In large part. It was the widening of the franchise and the growth of trade unions as the economy industrialised and moved to the cities that was pivotal to the growth of Labour and the relative decline of the Liberals.
If the Tories however were overtaken as the main party off the right it would mainly be on ideological grounds, hence Farage's Brexit Party briefly overtook May's Tories in the polls in Spring 2019 after she failed to deliver Brexit
I wish it was only 'relative decline'. I fully accept I am in a minority as a Liberal. Even when we are doing well it is important to note our core vote is still very low indeed (4 - 5%) and much of the rest is due to protest against Tory/Labour.
Indeed although the LD core vote would likely be a bit higher under PR. The LD core vote is economically and socially liberal and anti Brexit now. Davey is more likely to pick up Remain voting Tories at the next general election who dislike Truss than any votes from Labour in my view. Labour voters who liked Corbyn but dislike Starmer are more likely to go Green than LD
Unduly optimistic, young HY - from a Tory point of view, of course. How many seats do you think the Green Party will win next time? And which ones? They do well only when the Liberal Democrats make way for them - as in the case of Swinson's anti-Brexit strategy in 2019, for example.
If it is the case that anti-Tory voters (which even now is most of the country) are spontaneously coalescing behind the best-placed challenger, why do you think people would vote for the losing Green Party candidate instead of Labour? Would they really prefer to continue with the incompetent, crooked Conservatives?
In marginal seats maybe not. In Labour safe seats in inner cities and university towns plenty of Corbyn supporters will cast a protest vote for the Greens next time rather than Starmer Labour
If they are Labour safe seats, not much hope for your Tories there!
We said that about Sedgefield once.
At the last election in 2019, the Green Party vote there was down to 2.3%. Young HY was trying to make the point that Labour voters would be stampeding to the Green Party, thus implicitly allowing the Tories to win. I don't see much sign of that.
The Greens are polling about 5 to 7% in most polls now compared to the 3% they got at the 2019 general election. Even if most of that gain will be in Labour safe seats now Starmer has replaced Corbyn as Labour leader
Doing a re-read of Space Launch Systems stuff. Amazing that NASA are still using a fully disposable system when SpaceX have everything reusable.
Worse than that; in the case of the engines, they're disposing of items that were reusable. As to why, it's a combination of factors:
*) The SLS project started in 2911, when SpaceX had only launched the initial version of Falcon 9 twice, before SpaceX had decided on propulsive landing, and ?four? years before a F9 successfully landed.
*) The SLS is *very* large compared to the F9. The issues of recovery are so much greater, especially as the first stage will be travelling *much* faster than the F9 first stage does (in the case of F9, they stage early - and have a larger second stage, to keep speeds down and to make recovery easier).
*) Economics. The flight rate of SLS is too low to make reusability economical. Back in the 1960s, von Braun estimated over 100 flights would have to be manifested to make Saturn V reuse economic to develop.
*) Politics. The SLS uses ex-Shuttle parts to keep politicians happy - they did not want ex-Shuttle factories to close.
All in all, it made sense back in 2011. *If* SpaceX's SH/SS combo actually works, it won't have many flights. *If*.
There's also Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket, which will have a reusable first stage, and potentially a reusable second stage as well. And ULA are going for some form of SMART reuse with Vulcan - though they have the same problem of high-altitude, high-speed staging.
Yeah. Its a big Shuttle tank with shuttle engines on the bottom, with big shuttle boosters attached to the side. All of which goes in the bin on every launch. Whereas Elon will be able to hoist more than double the payload for a fraction of the cost reusing the entire system.
They may as well paint the SLS with dollar bills as that is a fortune in taxpayer money literally going up in smoke.
It’s not a shuttle tank - they spent billions designing and building a tank which is kind of the same shape as the Shuttle external tank. But completely different.
The boosters use old shuttle casings, but everything else was changed. Lots of billions of development there.
The main engines are shuttle engines rebuilt to a virtually different design. More billions there.
This gives you a core stage with no heritage and the wrong size and using the wrong fuel. To get it off the pad, SRBs with next to no heritage and sustained by engines that have been rebuilt into something else. Wonder if they got rid of the gold pins?
On Rough gas storage, what is the mechanism by which it saves us money? Wasn’t it run by a private company, which would take the difference between the cheap cost of filling it up, and the high spot prices when it was emptied? Or was just a government program, and the private company was just paid a yearly fee for running it?
Its not the money, its the security. Gas wells can only operate within certain flow limits. In the winter they cannot flow fast enough to provide the gas we need whilst in the summer they produce more gas than can be used. So having storage means you can keep producing at full rate and the excess gas is stored for times when production cannot match demand.
However, as mentioned in Energy News only this morning, there are serious doubts in the industry about the feasibility of brining Rough back online. I know I have banged on about this for a while but just throwing money and good wishes at something doesn't overcome certain fundamental issues. Rough is old and both the reservoir and topsides have suffered from wear and tear to the extent that it may not be feasible to bring it back online for any great length of time. I hope this is not he case and there may be some wizards at Centrica who can overcome these problems but I am not hopeful it is going to make much difference.
Thanks. On security, though, isn’t having a paid-for LNG cargo steaming towards us with a know arrival date also a form of secure storage (unless it sinks)?
Only if you can get it. There are a limited number of LNG vessels in the world and everyone will be crying out for them. Nor are they necessarily a secure supply in extremis. Certainly not as secure as having your own storage for your own gas.
I wonder how long it takes to build new LNG vessels?
A couple of weeks back, when the wholesale/futures prices were lower, someone smart (Javier Blas? Adam Tooze?) said the profit margin on a single cargo shipment from America to Europe was greater than the entire cost of the vessel. With the recent substantial rise in Gas futures stretching to winter 2025, presumably loads more LNG vessels are being built, right now?
Extra bonus -- the text on that is in Japanese and says (among other things) "German style"...
LOL, its got to be a photo shop?
Yeah, very likely. This site has pictures of what I think is the original -- it really is "English French Toast", but it's 'pizza style', not 'German style', and the Spanish flag, 'American' label and 'Made in China' text are all addons.
Doing a re-read of Space Launch Systems stuff. Amazing that NASA are still using a fully disposable system when SpaceX have everything reusable.
Worse than that; in the case of the engines, they're disposing of items that were reusable. As to why, it's a combination of factors:
*) The SLS project started in 2911, when SpaceX had only launched the initial version of Falcon 9 twice, before SpaceX had decided on propulsive landing, and ?four? years before a F9 successfully landed.
*) The SLS is *very* large compared to the F9. The issues of recovery are so much greater, especially as the first stage will be travelling *much* faster than the F9 first stage does (in the case of F9, they stage early - and have a larger second stage, to keep speeds down and to make recovery easier).
*) Economics. The flight rate of SLS is too low to make reusability economical. Back in the 1960s, von Braun estimated over 100 flights would have to be manifested to make Saturn V reuse economic to develop.
*) Politics. The SLS uses ex-Shuttle parts to keep politicians happy - they did not want ex-Shuttle factories to close.
All in all, it made sense back in 2011. *If* SpaceX's SH/SS combo actually works, it won't have many flights. *If*.
There's also Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket, which will have a reusable first stage, and potentially a reusable second stage as well. And ULA are going for some form of SMART reuse with Vulcan - though they have the same problem of high-altitude, high-speed staging.
Yeah. Its a big Shuttle tank with shuttle engines on the bottom, with big shuttle boosters attached to the side. All of which goes in the bin on every launch. Whereas Elon will be able to hoist more than double the payload for a fraction of the cost reusing the entire system.
They may as well paint the SLS with dollar bills as that is a fortune in taxpayer money literally going up in smoke.
It’s not a shuttle tank - they spent billions designing and building a tank which is kind of the same shape as the Shuttle external tank. But completely different.
The boosters use old shuttle casings, but everything else was changed. Lots of billions of development there.
The main engines are shuttle engines rebuilt to a virtually different design. More billions there.
This gives you a core stage with no heritage and the wrong size and using the wrong fuel. To get it off the pad, SRBs with next to no heritage and sustained by engines that have been rebuilt into something else. Wonder if they got rid of the gold pins?
It's not the 'wrong fuel'. Hydrolox has many advantages and disadvantages. Like many things, it is a compromise.
She needs to then translate that into voteshare in No 10 and sustain it. If she did then even if she still lost the Tory majority she could still win most seats
She needs the conservative party to get behind her 100% once elected otherwise the party faces extinction in 2024
Will you come on bord and accept Johnson is over and the party needs to move on
Well I will come 100% behind her if she is elected leader despite voting for Sunak as I have every other Tory leader since I joined the party in 1998. However if she is trailing well behind in the polls this time next year whether the party will do so is another matter.
As for extinction the party is still far better placed than in Spring 2019 when it not only trailed Labour but had been overtaken by the Brexit Party as the main party of the right too
Although not impossible (look what happened to the Liberals) I tend to agree that under FPTP it is extremely unlikely that the Tories will face extinction. At worse they will go into opposition as they did before and come back stronger. As before they may go through a few leaders before reinventing themselves.
True but then of course the main reason the Liberals were overtaken was the fact that all working class male voters over 21 gained the vote by 1918, joined by all working class women by 1928 and those working class voters mostly voted Labour so Labour overtook the Liberals as the Tories main opponents. Whereas in the 19th century the electorate were mostly middle class and voted Tory or Liberal
I've not studied any of this. What you say makes senses, but is it as simple as that?
In large part. It was the widening of the franchise and the growth of trade unions as the economy industrialised and moved to the cities that was pivotal to the growth of Labour and the relative decline of the Liberals.
If the Tories however were overtaken as the main party off the right it would mainly be on ideological grounds, hence Farage's Brexit Party briefly overtook May's Tories in the polls in Spring 2019 after she failed to deliver Brexit
I wish it was only 'relative decline'. I fully accept I am in a minority as a Liberal. Even when we are doing well it is important to note our core vote is still very low indeed (4 - 5%) and much of the rest is due to protest against Tory/Labour.
Indeed although the LD core vote would likely be a bit higher under PR. The LD core vote is economically and socially liberal and anti Brexit now. Davey is more likely to pick up Remain voting Tories at the next general election who dislike Truss than any votes from Labour in my view. Labour voters who liked Corbyn but dislike Starmer are more likely to go Green than LD
Although under PR the LDs might split and I might find myself in an even smaller group!!!
I suspect there will be a Social Democratic party made up of some from the right of Labour and Social Democrats from the LDs. Although I would be happy in coalition with such a group, it is not a group I could join.
There might also be a grouping of the Left from the Conservatives which a number of LDs would join. Again I would be happy in coalition with this group, but again I am not sure about joining it.
I suspect I would be in a proper radical free market liberal group with a small core vote, or just a floating voter, between the two above.
You can over salami slice the possibilities, though. Presumably there would be a 5% threshold? Not sure your group would make that.
Agree although I suspect the two groups I could support, but probably wouldn't join, would be the main groups, going by other European countries (except when there is a strong swing to the more extreme left or right). I suspect the group I would more likely join would be marginal as you say although they tend to exist in many European countries and get into Govt, but as a real minority.
So the Truss epoch is about to commence. I wonder if there are any Tory politicians, fairly recognizable now, about whom will say in four or five years, 'Oh yes, I remember X. I'd completely forgotten about X. I wonder what X is doing now.' My prediction is Penny Mordaunt.
She needs to then translate that into voteshare in No 10 and sustain it. If she did then even if she still lost the Tory majority she could still win most seats
She needs the conservative party to get behind her 100% once elected otherwise the party faces extinction in 2024
Will you come on bord and accept Johnson is over and the party needs to move on
Well I will come 100% behind her if she is elected leader despite voting for Sunak as I have every other Tory leader since I joined the party in 1998. However if she is trailing well behind in the polls this time next year whether the party will do so is another matter.
As for extinction the party is still far better placed than in Spring 2019 when it not only trailed Labour but had been overtaken by the Brexit Party as the main party of the right too
Although not impossible (look what happened to the Liberals) I tend to agree that under FPTP it is extremely unlikely that the Tories will face extinction. At worse they will go into opposition as they did before and come back stronger. As before they may go through a few leaders before reinventing themselves.
True but then of course the main reason the Liberals were overtaken was the fact that all working class male voters over 21 gained the vote by 1918, joined by all working class women by 1928 and those working class voters mostly voted Labour so Labour overtook the Liberals as the Tories main opponents. Whereas in the 19th century the electorate were mostly middle class and voted Tory or Liberal
I've not studied any of this. What you say makes senses, but is it as simple as that?
In large part. It was the widening of the franchise and the growth of trade unions as the economy industrialised and moved to the cities that was pivotal to the growth of Labour and the relative decline of the Liberals.
If the Tories however were overtaken as the main party off the right it would mainly be on ideological grounds, hence Farage's Brexit Party briefly overtook May's Tories in the polls in Spring 2019 after she failed to deliver Brexit
I wish it was only 'relative decline'. I fully accept I am in a minority as a Liberal. Even when we are doing well it is important to note our core vote is still very low indeed (4 - 5%) and much of the rest is due to protest against Tory/Labour.
Indeed although the LD core vote would likely be a bit higher under PR. The LD core vote is economically and socially liberal and anti Brexit now. Davey is more likely to pick up Remain voting Tories at the next general election who dislike Truss than any votes from Labour in my view. Labour voters who liked Corbyn but dislike Starmer are more likely to go Green than LD
Unduly optimistic, young HY - from a Tory point of view, of course. How many seats do you think the Green Party will win next time? And which ones? They do well only when the Liberal Democrats make way for them - as in the case of Swinson's anti-Brexit strategy in 2019, for example.
If it is the case that anti-Tory voters (which even now is most of the country) are spontaneously coalescing behind the best-placed challenger, why do you think people would vote for the losing Green Party candidate instead of Labour? Would they really prefer to continue with the incompetent, crooked Conservatives?
In marginal seats maybe not. In Labour safe seats in inner cities and university towns plenty of Corbyn supporters will cast a protest vote for the Greens next time rather than Starmer Labour
If they are Labour safe seats, not much hope for your Tories there!
We said that about Sedgefield once.
At the last election in 2019, the Green Party vote there was down to 2.3%. Young HY was trying to make the point that Labour voters would be stampeding to the Green Party, thus implicitly allowing the Tories to win. I don't see much sign of that.
The Greens are polling about 5 to 7% in most polls now compared to the 3% they got at the 2019 general election. Even if most of that gain will be in Labour safe seats now Starmer has replaced Corbyn as Labour leader
On Rough gas storage, what is the mechanism by which it saves us money? Wasn’t it run by a private company, which would take the difference between the cheap cost of filling it up, and the high spot prices when it was emptied? Or was just a government program, and the private company was just paid a yearly fee for running it?
Its not the money, its the security. Gas wells can only operate within certain flow limits. In the winter they cannot flow fast enough to provide the gas we need whilst in the summer they produce more gas than can be used. So having storage means you can keep producing at full rate and the excess gas is stored for times when production cannot match demand.
However, as mentioned in Energy News only this morning, there are serious doubts in the industry about the feasibility of brining Rough back online. I know I have banged on about this for a while but just throwing money and good wishes at something doesn't overcome certain fundamental issues. Rough is old and both the reservoir and topsides have suffered from wear and tear to the extent that it may not be feasible to bring it back online for any great length of time. I hope this is not he case and there may be some wizards at Centrica who can overcome these problems but I am not hopeful it is going to make much difference.
Thanks. On security, though, isn’t having a paid-for LNG cargo steaming towards us with a know arrival date also a form of secure storage (unless it sinks)?
Only if you can get it. There are a limited number of LNG vessels in the world and everyone will be crying out for them. Nor are they necessarily a secure supply in extremis. Certainly not as secure as having your own storage for your own gas.
I wonder how long it takes to build new LNG vessels?
A couple of weeks back, when the wholesale/futures prices were lower, someone smart (Javier Blas? Adam Tooze?) said the profit margin on a single cargo shipment from America to Europe was greater than the entire cost of the vessel. With the recent substantial rise in Gas futures stretching to winter 2025, presumably loads more LNG vessels are being built, right now?
I would only be guessing but I would have thought a couple of years at least. And that needs to have the yard space available. The yards in Singapore and Korea have been pretty full with orders the last few years. As always nothing is necessarily impossible but people do seem to be looking for what should be long term solutions to happen in a few weeks in defiance of practical considerations.
So the Truss epoch is about to commence. I wonder if there are any Tory politicians, fairly recognizable now, about whom will say in four or five years, 'Oh yes, I remember X. I'd completely forgotten about X. I wonder what X is doing now.' My prediction is Penny Mordaunt.
Raab is more likely to lose his seat at the next election, and then subsequently sink into complete obscurity.
So the Truss epoch is about to commence. I wonder if there are any Tory politicians, fairly recognizable now, about whom will say in four or five years, 'Oh yes, I remember X. I'd completely forgotten about X. I wonder what X is doing now.' My prediction is Penny Mordaunt.
So the Truss epoch is about to commence. I wonder if there are any Tory politicians, fairly recognizable now, about whom will say in four or five years, 'Oh yes, I remember X. I'd completely forgotten about X. I wonder what X is doing now.' My prediction is Penny Mordaunt.
Raab is more likely to lose his seat at the next election, and then subsequently sink into complete obscurity.
Yes, Raab is a good one. Although I can imagine him turning up on some reality-TV vehicle sooner or later.
She needs to then translate that into voteshare in No 10 and sustain it. If she did then even if she still lost the Tory majority she could still win most seats
She needs the conservative party to get behind her 100% once elected otherwise the party faces extinction in 2024
Will you come on bord and accept Johnson is over and the party needs to move on
Well I will come 100% behind her if she is elected leader despite voting for Sunak as I have every other Tory leader since I joined the party in 1998. However if she is trailing well behind in the polls this time next year whether the party will do so is another matter.
As for extinction the party is still far better placed than in Spring 2019 when it not only trailed Labour but had been overtaken by the Brexit Party as the main party of the right too
Although not impossible (look what happened to the Liberals) I tend to agree that under FPTP it is extremely unlikely that the Tories will face extinction. At worse they will go into opposition as they did before and come back stronger. As before they may go through a few leaders before reinventing themselves.
True but then of course the main reason the Liberals were overtaken was the fact that all working class male voters over 21 gained the vote by 1918, joined by all working class women by 1928 and those working class voters mostly voted Labour so Labour overtook the Liberals as the Tories main opponents. Whereas in the 19th century the electorate were mostly middle class and voted Tory or Liberal
I've not studied any of this. What you say makes senses, but is it as simple as that?
In large part. It was the widening of the franchise and the growth of trade unions as the economy industrialised and moved to the cities that was pivotal to the growth of Labour and the relative decline of the Liberals.
If the Tories however were overtaken as the main party off the right it would mainly be on ideological grounds, hence Farage's Brexit Party briefly overtook May's Tories in the polls in Spring 2019 after she failed to deliver Brexit
I wish it was only 'relative decline'. I fully accept I am in a minority as a Liberal. Even when we are doing well it is important to note our core vote is still very low indeed (4 - 5%) and much of the rest is due to protest against Tory/Labour.
Indeed although the LD core vote would likely be a bit higher under PR. The LD core vote is economically and socially liberal and anti Brexit now. Davey is more likely to pick up Remain voting Tories at the next general election who dislike Truss than any votes from Labour in my view. Labour voters who liked Corbyn but dislike Starmer are more likely to go Green than LD
Unduly optimistic, young HY - from a Tory point of view, of course. How many seats do you think the Green Party will win next time? And which ones? They do well only when the Liberal Democrats make way for them - as in the case of Swinson's anti-Brexit strategy in 2019, for example.
If it is the case that anti-Tory voters (which even now is most of the country) are spontaneously coalescing behind the best-placed challenger, why do you think people would vote for the losing Green Party candidate instead of Labour? Would they really prefer to continue with the incompetent, crooked Conservatives?
In marginal seats maybe not. In Labour safe seats in inner cities and university towns plenty of Corbyn supporters will cast a protest vote for the Greens next time rather than Starmer Labour
If they are Labour safe seats, not much hope for your Tories there!
We said that about Sedgefield once.
At the last election in 2019, the Green Party vote there was down to 2.3%. Young HY was trying to make the point that Labour voters would be stampeding to the Green Party, thus implicitly allowing the Tories to win. I don't see much sign of that.
The Greens are polling about 5 to 7% in most polls now compared to the 3% they got at the 2019 general election. Even if most of that gain will be in Labour safe seats now Starmer has replaced Corbyn as Labour leader
In early 2018 just over a year and a half before the next general election ie about where we are now, the Greens were polling 2 to 5% not 5 to 7% like now
So the Truss epoch is about to commence. I wonder if there are any Tory politicians, fairly recognizable now, about whom will say in four or five years, 'Oh yes, I remember X. I'd completely forgotten about X. I wonder what X is doing now.' My prediction is Penny Mordaunt.
She needs to then translate that into voteshare in No 10 and sustain it. If she did then even if she still lost the Tory majority she could still win most seats
She needs the conservative party to get behind her 100% once elected otherwise the party faces extinction in 2024
Will you come on bord and accept Johnson is over and the party needs to move on
Well I will come 100% behind her if she is elected leader despite voting for Sunak as I have every other Tory leader since I joined the party in 1998. However if she is trailing well behind in the polls this time next year whether the party will do so is another matter.
As for extinction the party is still far better placed than in Spring 2019 when it not only trailed Labour but had been overtaken by the Brexit Party as the main party of the right too
Although not impossible (look what happened to the Liberals) I tend to agree that under FPTP it is extremely unlikely that the Tories will face extinction. At worse they will go into opposition as they did before and come back stronger. As before they may go through a few leaders before reinventing themselves.
True but then of course the main reason the Liberals were overtaken was the fact that all working class male voters over 21 gained the vote by 1918, joined by all working class women by 1928 and those working class voters mostly voted Labour so Labour overtook the Liberals as the Tories main opponents. Whereas in the 19th century the electorate were mostly middle class and voted Tory or Liberal
I've not studied any of this. What you say makes senses, but is it as simple as that?
In large part. It was the widening of the franchise and the growth of trade unions as the economy industrialised and moved to the cities that was pivotal to the growth of Labour and the relative decline of the Liberals.
If the Tories however were overtaken as the main party off the right it would mainly be on ideological grounds, hence Farage's Brexit Party briefly overtook May's Tories in the polls in Spring 2019 after she failed to deliver Brexit
I wish it was only 'relative decline'. I fully accept I am in a minority as a Liberal. Even when we are doing well it is important to note our core vote is still very low indeed (4 - 5%) and much of the rest is due to protest against Tory/Labour.
Indeed although the LD core vote would likely be a bit higher under PR. The LD core vote is economically and socially liberal and anti Brexit now. Davey is more likely to pick up Remain voting Tories at the next general election who dislike Truss than any votes from Labour in my view. Labour voters who liked Corbyn but dislike Starmer are more likely to go Green than LD
Unduly optimistic, young HY - from a Tory point of view, of course. How many seats do you think the Green Party will win next time? And which ones? They do well only when the Liberal Democrats make way for them - as in the case of Swinson's anti-Brexit strategy in 2019, for example.
If it is the case that anti-Tory voters (which even now is most of the country) are spontaneously coalescing behind the best-placed challenger, why do you think people would vote for the losing Green Party candidate instead of Labour? Would they really prefer to continue with the incompetent, crooked Conservatives?
In marginal seats maybe not. In Labour safe seats in inner cities and university towns plenty of Corbyn supporters will cast a protest vote for the Greens next time rather than Starmer Labour
If they are Labour safe seats, not much hope for your Tories there!
We said that about Sedgefield once.
At the last election in 2019, the Green Party vote there was down to 2.3%. Young HY was trying to make the point that Labour voters would be stampeding to the Green Party, thus implicitly allowing the Tories to win. I don't see much sign of that.
The Greens are polling about 5 to 7% in most polls now compared to the 3% they got at the 2019 general election. Even if most of that gain will be in Labour safe seats now Starmer has replaced Corbyn as Labour leader
Though as @MikeSmithson has regularly noted the Labour Party is no longer led by Jeremy Corbyn. That plays into their advantage for a lot of groups like potential swing Tory or Lib Dem voters, but the one group that it might harm them with is those indicating Green as their vote - there's a lot of overlap rather than disgust between those who say Green and those who say Corbyn.
Looking back at the 2015 Parliament most polls at this stage of that Parliament gave the Greens 2-3%, they actually scored 3.8% at the General Election. So there was a swing from Labour to the Greens from the midterm polls in that Parliament, not the other way around.
On Rough gas storage, what is the mechanism by which it saves us money? Wasn’t it run by a private company, which would take the difference between the cheap cost of filling it up, and the high spot prices when it was emptied? Or was just a government program, and the private company was just paid a yearly fee for running it?
Its not the money, its the security. Gas wells can only operate within certain flow limits. In the winter they cannot flow fast enough to provide the gas we need whilst in the summer they produce more gas than can be used. So having storage means you can keep producing at full rate and the excess gas is stored for times when production cannot match demand.
However, as mentioned in Energy News only this morning, there are serious doubts in the industry about the feasibility of brining Rough back online. I know I have banged on about this for a while but just throwing money and good wishes at something doesn't overcome certain fundamental issues. Rough is old and both the reservoir and topsides have suffered from wear and tear to the extent that it may not be feasible to bring it back online for any great length of time. I hope this is not he case and there may be some wizards at Centrica who can overcome these problems but I am not hopeful it is going to make much difference.
Thanks. On security, though, isn’t having a paid-for LNG cargo steaming towards us with a know arrival date also a form of secure storage (unless it sinks)?
Only if you can get it. There are a limited number of LNG vessels in the world and everyone will be crying out for them. Nor are they necessarily a secure supply in extremis. Certainly not as secure as having your own storage for your own gas.
I wonder how long it takes to build new LNG vessels?
A couple of weeks back, when the wholesale/futures prices were lower, someone smart (Javier Blas? Adam Tooze?) said the profit margin on a single cargo shipment from America to Europe was greater than the entire cost of the vessel. With the recent substantial rise in Gas futures stretching to winter 2025, presumably loads more LNG vessels are being built, right now?
I would only be guessing but I would have thought a couple of years at least. And that needs to have the yard space available. The yards in Singapore and Korea have been pretty full with orders the last few years. As always nothing is necessarily impossible but people do seem to be looking for what should be long term solutions to happen in a few weeks in defiance of practical considerations.
Articles found using Google from ~2019 suggested about two-and-a-half years to build an LNG carrier, but that there was also something of a boom underway at that time - though presumably the pandemic would have disrupted that.
What's frustrating is that I have little sense of whether the things that would need to be done to provide a long-term solution were started in February (or even before), or if the last six months have been wasted?
There's so much discussion about it, but seemingly very little information. Getting through a difficult winter would be easier if we knew it wouldn't be so bad the winter after, and resolved by the winter after that.
So the Truss epoch is about to commence. I wonder if there are any Tory politicians, fairly recognizable now, about whom will say in four or five years, 'Oh yes, I remember X. I'd completely forgotten about X. I wonder what X is doing now.' My prediction is Penny Mordaunt.
Rishi Sunak.
Not sure about Rishi. After his abject humiliation in the leadership contest he might want to stick around politics and attempt to fashion a 'Wise Old Head' reputation for himself. Just to regain some pride.
I made it for the first time yesterday, and it has been an enormous hit in the Smithson family. No mess. Delicious. Extremely unhealthy. What's not to like?
Is that a Spanish American English French Toast made in China?
Glad you shared @rcs1000 's video FPT as I hadn't seen it.
Just made it, although I was out of bacon so used ham instead, and it was really, really good.
So the Truss epoch is about to commence. I wonder if there are any Tory politicians, fairly recognizable now, about whom will say in four or five years, 'Oh yes, I remember X. I'd completely forgotten about X. I wonder what X is doing now.' My prediction is Penny Mordaunt.
Rishi Sunak.
Not sure about Rishi. After his abject humiliation in the leadership contest he might want to stick around politics and attempt to fashion a 'Wise Old Head' reputation for himself. Just to regain some pride.
No he will go off to America like David Miliband and Clegg most likely. Truss is unlikely to offer him a senior Cabinet post
So the Truss epoch is about to commence. I wonder if there are any Tory politicians, fairly recognizable now, about whom will say in four or five years, 'Oh yes, I remember X. I'd completely forgotten about X. I wonder what X is doing now.' My prediction is Penny Mordaunt.
Rishi Sunak.
Not sure about Rishi. After his abject humiliation in the leadership contest he might want to stick around politics and attempt to fashion a 'Wise Old Head' reputation for himself. Just to regain some pride.
No he will go off to America like David Miliband and Clegg most likely. Truss is unlikely to offer him a senior Cabinet post
He might surprise me and hang around on the backbenches, do some useful work on a Parliamentary Committee, but like you I expect he'll be in California before you can say, "ex-Chancellor".
It's one of the things about him that I find instinctively least appealing, the sense that he's not interested in politics as a whole, but only in making it into the top job.
Edit: But, putting those feelings aside, I'd still be delighted if the 250-1 bets placed by some PBers came in.
So the Truss epoch is about to commence. I wonder if there are any Tory politicians, fairly recognizable now, about whom will say in four or five years, 'Oh yes, I remember X. I'd completely forgotten about X. I wonder what X is doing now.' My prediction is Penny Mordaunt.
Rishi Sunak.
Not sure about Rishi. After his abject humiliation in the leadership contest he might want to stick around politics and attempt to fashion a 'Wise Old Head' reputation for himself. Just to regain some pride.
No he will go off to America like David Miliband and Clegg most likely. Truss is unlikely to offer him a senior Cabinet post
He might surprise me and hang around on the backbenches, do some useful work on a Parliamentary Committee, but like you I expect he'll be in California before you can say, "ex-Chancellor".
It's one of the things about him that I find instinctively least appealing, the sense that he's not interested in politics as a whole, but only in making it into the top job.
Edit: But, putting those feelings aside, I'd still be delighted if the 250-1 bets placed by some PBers came in.
Ideologically David Miliband, Clegg and Sunak are probably closer to each other than their parties. Members of the global technocratic centrist elite, much like Macron too, rather than genuine ideologues
She needs to then translate that into voteshare in No 10 and sustain it. If she did then even if she still lost the Tory majority she could still win most seats
She needs the conservative party to get behind her 100% once elected otherwise the party faces extinction in 2024
Will you come on bord and accept Johnson is over and the party needs to move on
Well I will come 100% behind her if she is elected leader despite voting for Sunak as I have every other Tory leader since I joined the party in 1998. However if she is trailing well behind in the polls this time next year whether the party will do so is another matter.
As for extinction the party is still far better placed than in Spring 2019 when it not only trailed Labour but had been overtaken by the Brexit Party as the main party of the right too
Although not impossible (look what happened to the Liberals) I tend to agree that under FPTP it is extremely unlikely that the Tories will face extinction. At worse they will go into opposition as they did before and come back stronger. As before they may go through a few leaders before reinventing themselves.
True but then of course the main reason the Liberals were overtaken was the fact that all working class male voters over 21 gained the vote by 1918, joined by all working class women by 1928 and those working class voters mostly voted Labour so Labour overtook the Liberals as the Tories main opponents. Whereas in the 19th century the electorate were mostly middle class and voted Tory or Liberal
I've not studied any of this. What you say makes senses, but is it as simple as that?
In large part. It was the widening of the franchise and the growth of trade unions as the economy industrialised and moved to the cities that was pivotal to the growth of Labour and the relative decline of the Liberals.
If the Tories however were overtaken as the main party off the right it would mainly be on ideological grounds, hence Farage's Brexit Party briefly overtook May's Tories in the polls in Spring 2019 after she failed to deliver Brexit
I wish it was only 'relative decline'. I fully accept I am in a minority as a Liberal. Even when we are doing well it is important to note our core vote is still very low indeed (4 - 5%) and much of the rest is due to protest against Tory/Labour.
Indeed although the LD core vote would likely be a bit higher under PR. The LD core vote is economically and socially liberal and anti Brexit now. Davey is more likely to pick up Remain voting Tories at the next general election who dislike Truss than any votes from Labour in my view. Labour voters who liked Corbyn but dislike Starmer are more likely to go Green than LD
Unduly optimistic, young HY - from a Tory point of view, of course. How many seats do you think the Green Party will win next time? And which ones? They do well only when the Liberal Democrats make way for them - as in the case of Swinson's anti-Brexit strategy in 2019, for example.
If it is the case that anti-Tory voters (which even now is most of the country) are spontaneously coalescing behind the best-placed challenger, why do you think people would vote for the losing Green Party candidate instead of Labour? Would they really prefer to continue with the incompetent, crooked Conservatives?
In marginal seats maybe not. In Labour safe seats in inner cities and university towns plenty of Corbyn supporters will cast a protest vote for the Greens next time rather than Starmer Labour
If they are Labour safe seats, not much hope for your Tories there!
We said that about Sedgefield once.
At the last election in 2019, the Green Party vote there was down to 2.3%. Young HY was trying to make the point that Labour voters would be stampeding to the Green Party, thus implicitly allowing the Tories to win. I don't see much sign of that.
I don't either, unless Johnson returns and then there is no such thing as a safe Labour seat.
So the Truss epoch is about to commence. I wonder if there are any Tory politicians, fairly recognizable now, about whom will say in four or five years, 'Oh yes, I remember X. I'd completely forgotten about X. I wonder what X is doing now.' My prediction is Penny Mordaunt.
Rishi Sunak.
Not sure about Rishi. After his abject humiliation in the leadership contest he might want to stick around politics and attempt to fashion a 'Wise Old Head' reputation for himself. Just to regain some pride.
No he will go off to America like David Miliband and Clegg most likely. Truss is unlikely to offer him a senior Cabinet post
He might surprise me and hang around on the backbenches, do some useful work on a Parliamentary Committee, but like you I expect he'll be in California before you can say, "ex-Chancellor".
It's one of the things about him that I find instinctively least appealing, the sense that he's not interested in politics as a whole, but only in making it into the top job.
Edit: But, putting those feelings aside, I'd still be delighted if the 250-1 bets placed by some PBers came in.
Ideologically David Miliband, Clegg and Sunak are probably closer to each other than their parties. Members of the global technocratic centrist elite, much like Macron too, rather than genuine ideologues
She needs to then translate that into voteshare in No 10 and sustain it. If she did then even if she still lost the Tory majority she could still win most seats
She needs the conservative party to get behind her 100% once elected otherwise the party faces extinction in 2024
Will you come on bord and accept Johnson is over and the party needs to move on
Well I will come 100% behind her if she is elected leader despite voting for Sunak as I have every other Tory leader since I joined the party in 1998. However if she is trailing well behind in the polls this time next year whether the party will do so is another matter.
As for extinction the party is still far better placed than in Spring 2019 when it not only trailed Labour but had been overtaken by the Brexit Party as the main party of the right too
Although not impossible (look what happened to the Liberals) I tend to agree that under FPTP it is extremely unlikely that the Tories will face extinction. At worse they will go into opposition as they did before and come back stronger. As before they may go through a few leaders before reinventing themselves.
True but then of course the main reason the Liberals were overtaken was the fact that all working class male voters over 21 gained the vote by 1918, joined by all working class women by 1928 and those working class voters mostly voted Labour so Labour overtook the Liberals as the Tories main opponents. Whereas in the 19th century the electorate were mostly middle class and voted Tory or Liberal
I've not studied any of this. What you say makes senses, but is it as simple as that?
In large part. It was the widening of the franchise and the growth of trade unions as the economy industrialised and moved to the cities that was pivotal to the growth of Labour and the relative decline of the Liberals.
If the Tories however were overtaken as the main party off the right it would mainly be on ideological grounds, hence Farage's Brexit Party briefly overtook May's Tories in the polls in Spring 2019 after she failed to deliver Brexit
I wish it was only 'relative decline'. I fully accept I am in a minority as a Liberal. Even when we are doing well it is important to note our core vote is still very low indeed (4 - 5%) and much of the rest is due to protest against Tory/Labour.
Indeed although the LD core vote would likely be a bit higher under PR. The LD core vote is economically and socially liberal and anti Brexit now. Davey is more likely to pick up Remain voting Tories at the next general election who dislike Truss than any votes from Labour in my view. Labour voters who liked Corbyn but dislike Starmer are more likely to go Green than LD
Unduly optimistic, young HY - from a Tory point of view, of course. How many seats do you think the Green Party will win next time? And which ones? They do well only when the Liberal Democrats make way for them - as in the case of Swinson's anti-Brexit strategy in 2019, for example.
If it is the case that anti-Tory voters (which even now is most of the country) are spontaneously coalescing behind the best-placed challenger, why do you think people would vote for the losing Green Party candidate instead of Labour? Would they really prefer to continue with the incompetent, crooked Conservatives?
In marginal seats maybe not. In Labour safe seats in inner cities and university towns plenty of Corbyn supporters will cast a protest vote for the Greens next time rather than Starmer Labour
If they are Labour safe seats, not much hope for your Tories there!
We said that about Sedgefield once.
At the last election in 2019, the Green Party vote there was down to 2.3%. Young HY was trying to make the point that Labour voters would be stampeding to the Green Party, thus implicitly allowing the Tories to win. I don't see much sign of that.
The Greens are polling about 5 to 7% in most polls now compared to the 3% they got at the 2019 general election. Even if most of that gain will be in Labour safe seats now Starmer has replaced Corbyn as Labour leader
Though as @MikeSmithson has regularly noted the Labour Party is no longer led by Jeremy Corbyn. That plays into their advantage for a lot of groups like potential swing Tory or Lib Dem voters, but the one group that it might harm them with is those indicating Green as their vote - there's a lot of overlap rather than disgust between those who say Green and those who say Corbyn.
Looking back at the 2015 Parliament most polls at this stage of that Parliament gave the Greens 2-3%, they actually scored 3.8% at the General Election. So there was a swing from Labour to the Greens from the midterm polls in that Parliament, not the other way around.
The circumstances are the same. A significant part of the current Green polling is made up of those who might be inclined to vote Labour but who dislike the current Labour leader. That was also the case prior to the 2017 and 2019 general elections. The leaders are different but the motivation the same. So the outcome should be the same too.
What is different between now and then is that the opportunity for the Conservatives to reclaim votes from UKIP or the Brexit Party is largely gone.
She needs to then translate that into voteshare in No 10 and sustain it. If she did then even if she still lost the Tory majority she could still win most seats
She needs the conservative party to get behind her 100% once elected otherwise the party faces extinction in 2024
Will you come on bord and accept Johnson is over and the party needs to move on
Well I will come 100% behind her if she is elected leader despite voting for Sunak as I have every other Tory leader since I joined the party in 1998. However if she is trailing well behind in the polls this time next year whether the party will do so is another matter.
As for extinction the party is still far better placed than in Spring 2019 when it not only trailed Labour but had been overtaken by the Brexit Party as the main party of the right too
Although not impossible (look what happened to the Liberals) I tend to agree that under FPTP it is extremely unlikely that the Tories will face extinction. At worse they will go into opposition as they did before and come back stronger. As before they may go through a few leaders before reinventing themselves.
True but then of course the main reason the Liberals were overtaken was the fact that all working class male voters over 21 gained the vote by 1918, joined by all working class women by 1928 and those working class voters mostly voted Labour so Labour overtook the Liberals as the Tories main opponents. Whereas in the 19th century the electorate were mostly middle class and voted Tory or Liberal
I've not studied any of this. What you say makes senses, but is it as simple as that?
In large part. It was the widening of the franchise and the growth of trade unions as the economy industrialised and moved to the cities that was pivotal to the growth of Labour and the relative decline of the Liberals.
If the Tories however were overtaken as the main party off the right it would mainly be on ideological grounds, hence Farage's Brexit Party briefly overtook May's Tories in the polls in Spring 2019 after she failed to deliver Brexit
I wish it was only 'relative decline'. I fully accept I am in a minority as a Liberal. Even when we are doing well it is important to note our core vote is still very low indeed (4 - 5%) and much of the rest is due to protest against Tory/Labour.
Indeed although the LD core vote would likely be a bit higher under PR. The LD core vote is economically and socially liberal and anti Brexit now. Davey is more likely to pick up Remain voting Tories at the next general election who dislike Truss than any votes from Labour in my view. Labour voters who liked Corbyn but dislike Starmer are more likely to go Green than LD
Unduly optimistic, young HY - from a Tory point of view, of course. How many seats do you think the Green Party will win next time? And which ones? They do well only when the Liberal Democrats make way for them - as in the case of Swinson's anti-Brexit strategy in 2019, for example.
If it is the case that anti-Tory voters (which even now is most of the country) are spontaneously coalescing behind the best-placed challenger, why do you think people would vote for the losing Green Party candidate instead of Labour? Would they really prefer to continue with the incompetent, crooked Conservatives?
In marginal seats maybe not. In Labour safe seats in inner cities and university towns plenty of Corbyn supporters will cast a protest vote for the Greens next time rather than Starmer Labour
If they are Labour safe seats, not much hope for your Tories there!
We said that about Sedgefield once.
At the last election in 2019, the Green Party vote there was down to 2.3%. Young HY was trying to make the point that Labour voters would be stampeding to the Green Party, thus implicitly allowing the Tories to win. I don't see much sign of that.
The Greens are polling about 5 to 7% in most polls now compared to the 3% they got at the 2019 general election. Even if most of that gain will be in Labour safe seats now Starmer has replaced Corbyn as Labour leader
Though as @MikeSmithson has regularly noted the Labour Party is no longer led by Jeremy Corbyn. That plays into their advantage for a lot of groups like potential swing Tory or Lib Dem voters, but the one group that it might harm them with is those indicating Green as their vote - there's a lot of overlap rather than disgust between those who say Green and those who say Corbyn.
Looking back at the 2015 Parliament most polls at this stage of that Parliament gave the Greens 2-3%, they actually scored 3.8% at the General Election. So there was a swing from Labour to the Greens from the midterm polls in that Parliament, not the other way around.
The circumstances are the same. A significant part of the current Green polling is made up of those who might be inclined to vote Labour but who dislike the current Labour leader. That was also the case prior to the 2017 and 2019 general elections. The leaders are different but the motivation the same. So the outcome should be the same too.
What is different between now and then is that the opportunity for the Conservatives to reclaim votes from UKIP or the Brexit Party is largely gone.
Not really, most Green voters tend to be left of Labour. Hence their numbers have grown since Corbyn left the Labour leadership and was replaced by the more centrist Starmer and they are polling about double where they were at this stage before the 2019 and 2017 elections.
RefUK is polling about the same as in 2019. However do not forget UKIP too increased its vote in 2010 and significantly in 2015 when it got over 10% when the centrist Cameron was Conservative leader
So the Truss epoch is about to commence. I wonder if there are any Tory politicians, fairly recognizable now, about whom will say in four or five years, 'Oh yes, I remember X. I'd completely forgotten about X. I wonder what X is doing now.' My prediction is Penny Mordaunt.
Rishi Sunak.
Not sure about Rishi. After his abject humiliation in the leadership contest he might want to stick around politics and attempt to fashion a 'Wise Old Head' reputation for himself. Just to regain some pride.
No he will go off to America like David Miliband and Clegg most likely. Truss is unlikely to offer him a senior Cabinet post
He might surprise me and hang around on the backbenches, do some useful work on a Parliamentary Committee, but like you I expect he'll be in California before you can say, "ex-Chancellor".
It's one of the things about him that I find instinctively least appealing, the sense that he's not interested in politics as a whole, but only in making it into the top job.
Edit: But, putting those feelings aside, I'd still be delighted if the 250-1 bets placed by some PBers came in.
Oi. What about the 100/1 Lizzers? But with many forecasting Truss to last only a year or two, it is surely worth Sunak hanging around for the rematch. If I were Liz, I'd try and interest Rishi in Health, which is big enough to interest him without being a Great Office of State, and so keep him inside the tent; she will already have Boris as a focus for malcontents.
So the Truss epoch is about to commence. I wonder if there are any Tory politicians, fairly recognizable now, about whom will say in four or five years, 'Oh yes, I remember X. I'd completely forgotten about X. I wonder what X is doing now.' My prediction is Penny Mordaunt.
Rishi Sunak.
Not sure about Rishi. After his abject humiliation in the leadership contest he might want to stick around politics and attempt to fashion a 'Wise Old Head' reputation for himself. Just to regain some pride.
No he will go off to America like David Miliband and Clegg most likely. Truss is unlikely to offer him a senior Cabinet post
He might surprise me and hang around on the backbenches, do some useful work on a Parliamentary Committee, but like you I expect he'll be in California before you can say, "ex-Chancellor".
It's one of the things about him that I find instinctively least appealing, the sense that he's not interested in politics as a whole, but only in making it into the top job.
Edit: But, putting those feelings aside, I'd still be delighted if the 250-1 bets placed by some PBers came in.
Oi. What about the 100/1 Lizzers? But with many forecasting Truss to last only a year or two, it is surely worth Sunak hanging around for the rematch. If I were Liz, I'd try and interest Rishi in Health, which is big enough to interest him without being a Great Office of State, and so keep him inside the tent; she will already have Boris as a focus for malcontents.
Sunak would only stay in Cabinet again for Chancellor again or Foreign Secretary, neither of which Truss would offer him. Even Health she is now said to be ready to give to Zahawi
So the Truss epoch is about to commence. I wonder if there are any Tory politicians, fairly recognizable now, about whom will say in four or five years, 'Oh yes, I remember X. I'd completely forgotten about X. I wonder what X is doing now.' My prediction is Penny Mordaunt.
Rishi Sunak.
Not sure about Rishi. After his abject humiliation in the leadership contest he might want to stick around politics and attempt to fashion a 'Wise Old Head' reputation for himself. Just to regain some pride.
No he will go off to America like David Miliband and Clegg most likely. Truss is unlikely to offer him a senior Cabinet post
He might surprise me and hang around on the backbenches, do some useful work on a Parliamentary Committee, but like you I expect he'll be in California before you can say, "ex-Chancellor".
It's one of the things about him that I find instinctively least appealing, the sense that he's not interested in politics as a whole, but only in making it into the top job.
Edit: But, putting those feelings aside, I'd still be delighted if the 250-1 bets placed by some PBers came in.
Oi. What about the 100/1 Lizzers? But with many forecasting Truss to last only a year or two, it is surely worth Sunak hanging around for the rematch. If I were Liz, I'd try and interest Rishi in Health, which is big enough to interest him without being a Great Office of State, and so keep him inside the tent; she will already have Boris as a focus for malcontents.
Sunak would only stay in Cabinet again for Chancellor again or Foreign Secretary, neither of which Truss would offer him. Even Health she is now said to be ready to give to Zahawi
So the Truss epoch is about to commence. I wonder if there are any Tory politicians, fairly recognizable now, about whom will say in four or five years, 'Oh yes, I remember X. I'd completely forgotten about X. I wonder what X is doing now.' My prediction is Penny Mordaunt.
Rishi Sunak.
Not sure about Rishi. After his abject humiliation in the leadership contest he might want to stick around politics and attempt to fashion a 'Wise Old Head' reputation for himself. Just to regain some pride.
No he will go off to America like David Miliband and Clegg most likely. Truss is unlikely to offer him a senior Cabinet post
He might surprise me and hang around on the backbenches, do some useful work on a Parliamentary Committee, but like you I expect he'll be in California before you can say, "ex-Chancellor".
It's one of the things about him that I find instinctively least appealing, the sense that he's not interested in politics as a whole, but only in making it into the top job.
Edit: But, putting those feelings aside, I'd still be delighted if the 250-1 bets placed by some PBers came in.
Oi. What about the 100/1 Lizzers? But with many forecasting Truss to last only a year or two, it is surely worth Sunak hanging around for the rematch. If I were Liz, I'd try and interest Rishi in Health, which is big enough to interest him without being a Great Office of State, and so keep him inside the tent; she will already have Boris as a focus for malcontents.
Sunak would only stay in Cabinet again for Chancellor again or Foreign Secretary, neither of which Truss would offer him. Even Health she is now said to be ready to give to Zahawi
How far can we believe these leaks of who is getting which job in Truss's Cabinet? For a start, they seem too vague to come from the horse's mouth. X is likely to be offered A or B, sort of thing.
So the Truss epoch is about to commence. I wonder if there are any Tory politicians, fairly recognizable now, about whom will say in four or five years, 'Oh yes, I remember X. I'd completely forgotten about X. I wonder what X is doing now.' My prediction is Penny Mordaunt.
Rishi Sunak.
Not sure about Rishi. After his abject humiliation in the leadership contest he might want to stick around politics and attempt to fashion a 'Wise Old Head' reputation for himself. Just to regain some pride.
No he will go off to America like David Miliband and Clegg most likely. Truss is unlikely to offer him a senior Cabinet post
He might surprise me and hang around on the backbenches, do some useful work on a Parliamentary Committee, but like you I expect he'll be in California before you can say, "ex-Chancellor".
It's one of the things about him that I find instinctively least appealing, the sense that he's not interested in politics as a whole, but only in making it into the top job.
Edit: But, putting those feelings aside, I'd still be delighted if the 250-1 bets placed by some PBers came in.
Oi. What about the 100/1 Lizzers? But with many forecasting Truss to last only a year or two, it is surely worth Sunak hanging around for the rematch. If I were Liz, I'd try and interest Rishi in Health, which is big enough to interest him without being a Great Office of State, and so keep him inside the tent; she will already have Boris as a focus for malcontents.
Sunak would only stay in Cabinet again for Chancellor again or Foreign Secretary, neither of which Truss would offer him. Even Health she is now said to be ready to give to Zahawi
Will he take it? That's quite a demotion.
It’s the single largest managed spending department. If UK plc is to become an NHS with a country attached, then it’s one of the most important jobs in government.
So the Truss epoch is about to commence. I wonder if there are any Tory politicians, fairly recognizable now, about whom will say in four or five years, 'Oh yes, I remember X. I'd completely forgotten about X. I wonder what X is doing now.' My prediction is Penny Mordaunt.
Rishi Sunak.
Not sure about Rishi. After his abject humiliation in the leadership contest he might want to stick around politics and attempt to fashion a 'Wise Old Head' reputation for himself. Just to regain some pride.
No he will go off to America like David Miliband and Clegg most likely. Truss is unlikely to offer him a senior Cabinet post
He might surprise me and hang around on the backbenches, do some useful work on a Parliamentary Committee, but like you I expect he'll be in California before you can say, "ex-Chancellor".
It's one of the things about him that I find instinctively least appealing, the sense that he's not interested in politics as a whole, but only in making it into the top job.
Edit: But, putting those feelings aside, I'd still be delighted if the 250-1 bets placed by some PBers came in.
Oi. What about the 100/1 Lizzers? But with many forecasting Truss to last only a year or two, it is surely worth Sunak hanging around for the rematch. If I were Liz, I'd try and interest Rishi in Health, which is big enough to interest him without being a Great Office of State, and so keep him inside the tent; she will already have Boris as a focus for malcontents.
Sunak would only stay in Cabinet again for Chancellor again or Foreign Secretary, neither of which Truss would offer him. Even Health she is now said to be ready to give to Zahawi
How far can we believe these leaks of who is getting which job in Truss's Cabinet? For a start, they seem too vague to come from the horse's mouth. X is likely to be offered A or B, sort of thing.
For everyone saying Kwaseng for Chancellor, I don’t think she will - because of a five-year-old story that won’t go away if she does. Does she really want her first few days in office to be dominated (sic) by that?
She needs to then translate that into voteshare in No 10 and sustain it. If she did then even if she still lost the Tory majority she could still win most seats
She needs the conservative party to get behind her 100% once elected otherwise the party faces extinction in 2024
Will you come on bord and accept Johnson is over and the party needs to move on
Well I will come 100% behind her if she is elected leader despite voting for Sunak as I have every other Tory leader since I joined the party in 1998. However if she is trailing well behind in the polls this time next year whether the party will do so is another matter.
As for extinction the party is still far better placed than in Spring 2019 when it not only trailed Labour but had been overtaken by the Brexit Party as the main party of the right too
Although not impossible (look what happened to the Liberals) I tend to agree that under FPTP it is extremely unlikely that the Tories will face extinction. At worse they will go into opposition as they did before and come back stronger. As before they may go through a few leaders before reinventing themselves.
True but then of course the main reason the Liberals were overtaken was the fact that all working class male voters over 21 gained the vote by 1918, joined by all working class women by 1928 and those working class voters mostly voted Labour so Labour overtook the Liberals as the Tories main opponents. Whereas in the 19th century the electorate were mostly middle class and voted Tory or Liberal
I've not studied any of this. What you say makes senses, but is it as simple as that?
In large part. It was the widening of the franchise and the growth of trade unions as the economy industrialised and moved to the cities that was pivotal to the growth of Labour and the relative decline of the Liberals.
If the Tories however were overtaken as the main party off the right it would mainly be on ideological grounds, hence Farage's Brexit Party briefly overtook May's Tories in the polls in Spring 2019 after she failed to deliver Brexit
I wish it was only 'relative decline'. I fully accept I am in a minority as a Liberal. Even when we are doing well it is important to note our core vote is still very low indeed (4 - 5%) and much of the rest is due to protest against Tory/Labour.
Indeed although the LD core vote would likely be a bit higher under PR. The LD core vote is economically and socially liberal and anti Brexit now. Davey is more likely to pick up Remain voting Tories at the next general election who dislike Truss than any votes from Labour in my view. Labour voters who liked Corbyn but dislike Starmer are more likely to go Green than LD
Unduly optimistic, young HY - from a Tory point of view, of course. How many seats do you think the Green Party will win next time? And which ones? They do well only when the Liberal Democrats make way for them - as in the case of Swinson's anti-Brexit strategy in 2019, for example.
If it is the case that anti-Tory voters (which even now is most of the country) are spontaneously coalescing behind the best-placed challenger, why do you think people would vote for the losing Green Party candidate instead of Labour? Would they really prefer to continue with the incompetent, crooked Conservatives?
In marginal seats maybe not. In Labour safe seats in inner cities and university towns plenty of Corbyn supporters will cast a protest vote for the Greens next time rather than Starmer Labour
If they are Labour safe seats, not much hope for your Tories there!
We said that about Sedgefield once.
At the last election in 2019, the Green Party vote there was down to 2.3%. Young HY was trying to make the point that Labour voters would be stampeding to the Green Party, thus implicitly allowing the Tories to win. I don't see much sign of that.
The Greens are polling about 5 to 7% in most polls now compared to the 3% they got at the 2019 general election. Even if most of that gain will be in Labour safe seats now Starmer has replaced Corbyn as Labour leader
Though as @MikeSmithson has regularly noted the Labour Party is no longer led by Jeremy Corbyn. That plays into their advantage for a lot of groups like potential swing Tory or Lib Dem voters, but the one group that it might harm them with is those indicating Green as their vote - there's a lot of overlap rather than disgust between those who say Green and those who say Corbyn.
Looking back at the 2015 Parliament most polls at this stage of that Parliament gave the Greens 2-3%, they actually scored 3.8% at the General Election. So there was a swing from Labour to the Greens from the midterm polls in that Parliament, not the other way around.
The circumstances are the same. A significant part of the current Green polling is made up of those who might be inclined to vote Labour but who dislike the current Labour leader. That was also the case prior to the 2017 and 2019 general elections. The leaders are different but the motivation the same. So the outcome should be the same too.
What is different between now and then is that the opportunity for the Conservatives to reclaim votes from UKIP or the Brexit Party is largely gone.
Not really, most Green voters tend to be left of Labour. Hence their numbers have grown since Corbyn left the Labour leadership and was replaced by the more centrist Starmer and they are polling about double where they were at this stage before the 2019 and 2017 elections.
RefUK is polling about the same as in 2019. However do not forget UKIP too increased its vote in 2010 and significantly in 2015 when it got over 10% when the centrist Cameron was Conservative leader
Yes, you have a point that some left-wing 2017 and 2019 Labour voters will move over to the Greens, but I counter that that set of voters tend to be politically aware and will be much less inclined to switch if the likely result is a Conservative hold rather than a Labour gain.
So the Truss epoch is about to commence. I wonder if there are any Tory politicians, fairly recognizable now, about whom will say in four or five years, 'Oh yes, I remember X. I'd completely forgotten about X. I wonder what X is doing now.' My prediction is Penny Mordaunt.
Rishi Sunak.
Not sure about Rishi. After his abject humiliation in the leadership contest he might want to stick around politics and attempt to fashion a 'Wise Old Head' reputation for himself. Just to regain some pride.
No he will go off to America like David Miliband and Clegg most likely. Truss is unlikely to offer him a senior Cabinet post
He might surprise me and hang around on the backbenches, do some useful work on a Parliamentary Committee, but like you I expect he'll be in California before you can say, "ex-Chancellor".
It's one of the things about him that I find instinctively least appealing, the sense that he's not interested in politics as a whole, but only in making it into the top job.
Edit: But, putting those feelings aside, I'd still be delighted if the 250-1 bets placed by some PBers came in.
Oi. What about the 100/1 Lizzers? But with many forecasting Truss to last only a year or two, it is surely worth Sunak hanging around for the rematch. If I were Liz, I'd try and interest Rishi in Health, which is big enough to interest him without being a Great Office of State, and so keep him inside the tent; she will already have Boris as a focus for malcontents.
Sunak would only stay in Cabinet again for Chancellor again or Foreign Secretary, neither of which Truss would offer him. Even Health she is now said to be ready to give to Zahawi
How far can we believe these leaks of who is getting which job in Truss's Cabinet? For a start, they seem too vague to come from the horse's mouth. X is likely to be offered A or B, sort of thing.
They may well turn out to be true - there's a limited number of people in the running after all - but I wouldn't put much store in them. The journalists have to publish something on the topic, even if they don't believe the story they're being fed, and there's lots of potential for someone to brief that they've been lined up for x job to raise their profile, or to try and win support for the idea so that it becomes true.
Also, if I was Truss, I might ask my team to feed a few different names to a few different people and observe which journalist the story surfaces with - it would give you an idea of who is talking to which journalist.
She needs to then translate that into voteshare in No 10 and sustain it. If she did then even if she still lost the Tory majority she could still win most seats
She needs the conservative party to get behind her 100% once elected otherwise the party faces extinction in 2024
Will you come on bord and accept Johnson is over and the party needs to move on
Well I will come 100% behind her if she is elected leader despite voting for Sunak as I have every other Tory leader since I joined the party in 1998. However if she is trailing well behind in the polls this time next year whether the party will do so is another matter.
As for extinction the party is still far better placed than in Spring 2019 when it not only trailed Labour but had been overtaken by the Brexit Party as the main party of the right too
Although not impossible (look what happened to the Liberals) I tend to agree that under FPTP it is extremely unlikely that the Tories will face extinction. At worse they will go into opposition as they did before and come back stronger. As before they may go through a few leaders before reinventing themselves.
True but then of course the main reason the Liberals were overtaken was the fact that all working class male voters over 21 gained the vote by 1918, joined by all working class women by 1928 and those working class voters mostly voted Labour so Labour overtook the Liberals as the Tories main opponents. Whereas in the 19th century the electorate were mostly middle class and voted Tory or Liberal
I've not studied any of this. What you say makes senses, but is it as simple as that?
In large part. It was the widening of the franchise and the growth of trade unions as the economy industrialised and moved to the cities that was pivotal to the growth of Labour and the relative decline of the Liberals.
If the Tories however were overtaken as the main party off the right it would mainly be on ideological grounds, hence Farage's Brexit Party briefly overtook May's Tories in the polls in Spring 2019 after she failed to deliver Brexit
I wish it was only 'relative decline'. I fully accept I am in a minority as a Liberal. Even when we are doing well it is important to note our core vote is still very low indeed (4 - 5%) and much of the rest is due to protest against Tory/Labour.
Indeed although the LD core vote would likely be a bit higher under PR. The LD core vote is economically and socially liberal and anti Brexit now. Davey is more likely to pick up Remain voting Tories at the next general election who dislike Truss than any votes from Labour in my view. Labour voters who liked Corbyn but dislike Starmer are more likely to go Green than LD
Unduly optimistic, young HY - from a Tory point of view, of course. How many seats do you think the Green Party will win next time? And which ones? They do well only when the Liberal Democrats make way for them - as in the case of Swinson's anti-Brexit strategy in 2019, for example.
If it is the case that anti-Tory voters (which even now is most of the country) are spontaneously coalescing behind the best-placed challenger, why do you think people would vote for the losing Green Party candidate instead of Labour? Would they really prefer to continue with the incompetent, crooked Conservatives?
In marginal seats maybe not. In Labour safe seats in inner cities and university towns plenty of Corbyn supporters will cast a protest vote for the Greens next time rather than Starmer Labour
If they are Labour safe seats, not much hope for your Tories there!
We said that about Sedgefield once.
At the last election in 2019, the Green Party vote there was down to 2.3%. Young HY was trying to make the point that Labour voters would be stampeding to the Green Party, thus implicitly allowing the Tories to win. I don't see much sign of that.
The Greens are polling about 5 to 7% in most polls now compared to the 3% they got at the 2019 general election. Even if most of that gain will be in Labour safe seats now Starmer has replaced Corbyn as Labour leader
Though as @MikeSmithson has regularly noted the Labour Party is no longer led by Jeremy Corbyn. That plays into their advantage for a lot of groups like potential swing Tory or Lib Dem voters, but the one group that it might harm them with is those indicating Green as their vote - there's a lot of overlap rather than disgust between those who say Green and those who say Corbyn.
Looking back at the 2015 Parliament most polls at this stage of that Parliament gave the Greens 2-3%, they actually scored 3.8% at the General Election. So there was a swing from Labour to the Greens from the midterm polls in that Parliament, not the other way around.
The circumstances are the same. A significant part of the current Green polling is made up of those who might be inclined to vote Labour but who dislike the current Labour leader. That was also the case prior to the 2017 and 2019 general elections. The leaders are different but the motivation the same. So the outcome should be the same too.
What is different between now and then is that the opportunity for the Conservatives to reclaim votes from UKIP or the Brexit Party is largely gone.
Not really, most Green voters tend to be left of Labour. Hence their numbers have grown since Corbyn left the Labour leadership and was replaced by the more centrist Starmer and they are polling about double where they were at this stage before the 2019 and 2017 elections.
RefUK is polling about the same as in 2019. However do not forget UKIP too increased its vote in 2010 and significantly in 2015 when it got over 10% when the centrist Cameron was Conservative leader
Look I appreciate that you appear to spend virtually all day every day on here and yet I have never once seen you concede that you might be anything other than 100% right on anything. So that's just fine, at least I know it would be as pointless as bashing my head against a brick wall to continue arguing the toss with you on this or anything else. Soi forgive me if I don't indulge you further. Frankly I shouldn't have bothered in the first place. Bashing your head against a brick wall might be painful but at least it's over with quickly.
On Rough gas storage, what is the mechanism by which it saves us money? Wasn’t it run by a private company, which would take the difference between the cheap cost of filling it up, and the high spot prices when it was emptied? Or was just a government program, and the private company was just paid a yearly fee for running it?
Its not the money, its the security. Gas wells can only operate within certain flow limits. In the winter they cannot flow fast enough to provide the gas we need whilst in the summer they produce more gas than can be used. So having storage means you can keep producing at full rate and the excess gas is stored for times when production cannot match demand.
However, as mentioned in Energy News only this morning, there are serious doubts in the industry about the feasibility of brining Rough back online. I know I have banged on about this for a while but just throwing money and good wishes at something doesn't overcome certain fundamental issues. Rough is old and both the reservoir and topsides have suffered from wear and tear to the extent that it may not be feasible to bring it back online for any great length of time. I hope this is not he case and there may be some wizards at Centrica who can overcome these problems but I am not hopeful it is going to make much difference.
Thanks. On security, though, isn’t having a paid-for LNG cargo steaming towards us with a know arrival date also a form of secure storage (unless it sinks)?
Only if you can get it. There are a limited number of LNG vessels in the world and everyone will be crying out for them. Nor are they necessarily a secure supply in extremis. Certainly not as secure as having your own storage for your own gas.
I wonder how long it takes to build new LNG vessels?
A couple of weeks back, when the wholesale/futures prices were lower, someone smart (Javier Blas? Adam Tooze?) said the profit margin on a single cargo shipment from America to Europe was greater than the entire cost of the vessel. With the recent substantial rise in Gas futures stretching to winter 2025, presumably loads more LNG vessels are being built, right now?
I would only be guessing but I would have thought a couple of years at least. And that needs to have the yard space available. The yards in Singapore and Korea have been pretty full with orders the last few years. As always nothing is necessarily impossible but people do seem to be looking for what should be long term solutions to happen in a few weeks in defiance of practical considerations.
Articles found using Google from ~2019 suggested about two-and-a-half years to build an LNG carrier, but that there was also something of a boom underway at that time - though presumably the pandemic would have disrupted that.
What's frustrating is that I have little sense of whether the things that would need to be done to provide a long-term solution were started in February (or even before), or if the last six months have been wasted?
There's so much discussion about it, but seemingly very little information. Getting through a difficult winter would be easier if we knew it wouldn't be so bad the winter after, and resolved by the winter after that.
I have heard absolutely nothing on the UK upstream side of things of anything being done to increase production or look at longer term solutions - at least to the hydrocarbon bridge that we need.
We increased gas production by 26% this year but that was simply pure chance. Three new gas fields have come online since the beginning of the year including one I have been heavily involved with but they have been planned and executed for years and have nothing to do with the current crisis or even planning from the last few years.
Comments
Bring a key, then lose endgame confusingly for alternative to checkmate in shatranj. (4,4).
Infectiousness of SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections and reinfections during the Omicron wave
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.08.08.22278547v1
Breakthrough infections in vaccinated individuals and reinfections among previously infected individuals are increasingly prevalent, especially during the Omicron wave. Here, we analyze data from SARS-CoV-2 surveillance across 35 California prisons to understand the impact of vaccination and prior infection on infectiousness of individuals with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron infections in prison settings. We estimate that vaccination, prior infection, and both vaccination and prior infection reduced an index case’s risk of transmitting to close contacts by 24% (9-37%), 21% (4-36%) and 41% (23-54%), respectively. Booster vaccine doses and more recent vaccination further reduced infectiousness. These findings suggest that although vaccinated and/or previously infected individuals remain infectious upon SARS-CoV-2 Omicron infection in this prison setting, their infectiousness is reduced compared to individuals without any history of vaccination or infection.
I get your point about things having been developed, but it's still the same *basic* designs. As an example, yes, the SRBs have changed, but they're still just a slightly-lengthened version of the Shuttle ones. I think your comment is splitting hairs a little.
I hope SLS's launch today goes well. The western world needs a heavy launcher, and until SpaceX, BO or a.n.other get their designs working, SLS is all we have. It has been a bit of a problematic project though,
If it is the case that anti-Tory voters (which even now is most of the country) are spontaneously coalescing behind the best-placed challenger, why do you think people would vote for the losing Green Party candidate instead of Labour? Would they really prefer to continue with the incompetent, crooked Conservatives?
They may as well paint the SLS with dollar bills as that is a fortune in taxpayer money literally going up in smoke.
(I hope it does).
Long term most of the structural drivers point to global deflation: an ageing, stagnating and then declining population across Europe, Asia and the Americas coupled with increasing resource efficiency, cheap renewables and electrification, and automation / AI. Those are all deflationary signals.
The inflationary counter signals are a continuing population boom in Africa (but I expect this will be accompanied by a productivity boom), geopolitical decoupling and supply chain shocks as has happened in 2022.
Are there any more reliable sources?
However, as mentioned in Energy News only this morning, there are serious doubts in the industry about the feasibility of brining Rough back online. I know I have banged on about this for a while but just throwing money and good wishes at something doesn't overcome certain fundamental issues. Rough is old and both the reservoir and topsides have suffered from wear and tear to the extent that it may not be feasible to bring it back online for any great length of time. I hope this is not he case and there may be some wizards at Centrica who can overcome these problems but I am not hopeful it is going to make much difference.
During the French election - I kid you not - Emmanuel Macron was sold as a war leader.
Ukraine has formally confirmed there's multiple offensive actions going on
I suspect there will be a Social Democratic party made up of some from the right of Labour and Social Democrats from the LDs. Although I would be happy in coalition with such a group, it is not a group I could join.
There might also be a grouping of the Left from the Conservatives which a number of LDs would join. Again I would be happy in coalition with this group, but again I am not sure about joining it.
I suspect I would be in a proper radical free market liberal group with a small core vote, or just a floating voter, between the two above.
But it sniffs like it's a real attempt.
https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/black-country/were-trapped-life-unfinished-new-24863857
Surely there should be simple laws that force developers to construct roads/sewers up to a decent standard, with insurance/money set aside in case they go bust?
Certainly, in the experience of our new-build town, the council and developers are very slow in getting roads adopted.
Betting PostFootball: yes, random guessing in the dark is back, with an EPL tip, Serie A tip, and four in Ligue 1:
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2022/08/results-and-epl-serie-ligue-1-thoughts.html
EPL is 6 on Southampton at home versus Chelsea. I think the odds are too long (so it may be a classic value loser).
But hey, work for the project happened in all 48 contiguous States, so the politicians all got their pork.
If you want the market circumvented, eg you want demand to be met as it's strategically or politically important, then that's when the government need to get involved.
Though if governments are getting involved the elected governments of the countries concerned can cooperate rather, via their own bureaucracies and diplomats, rather than an additional supranational bureaucracy on top.
Sadly I don't know if accurate, or how big if accurate, or even how its going if it is happening.
There is a report form Routers:
https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-says-long-anticipated-southern-offensive-has-begun-2022-08-29/
Sadly it all it really reports if a Ukraine spokesperson.
Also I found this in Youtube.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgXVnSbrpZY
it does not say much, or more prosily it does caveat that its all unverifiable.
But it suggests that HYMARs are being used to fire directly at infantry positions, together with a lot of artillery and some air assists. And that the first layer of Russian defences has been breached.
Hoping its accurate and this is the start of a big Ukrainian victory, but also ready to be disappointed.
If anybody has any more links or info, please share.
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1564216355477491714
Nova Khakhovka is on the southern side of the Dniepr river, where there is a hydroelectric dam, and the road and rail bridges that have been targeted repeatedly recently.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sgec1kQWOnw
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/aug/29/russia-ukraine-war-nuclear-watchdog-team-will-visit-zaporizhzhia-this-week-says-chief-live?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-630ca8828f08237696476539#block-630ca8828f08237696476539
Very early days, but it seems to be happening.
https://www.kyivpost.com/russias-war/ukrainian-counteroffensive-underway-in-kherson-region.html
The invaders had better pray, that there’s enough of a bridge left for them to retreat back across the Deniper!
Not perfect, obviously, but a good result.
Getting close enough to take out the approaches to it though, that should definitely be the next target.
That would be hard if not impossible for the Russians to Propagandises to portray as a clever diversion as they did with the restreet around Kive, and therefore have many knock on effects.
But we still need to see how successful this all is first.
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3560236-in-kherson-region-ukraine-army-breaches-first-line-russian-defenses.html
Engine number 3 is the wrong temperature.
Earlier in the summer, after the Ukrainians had some success with a counteroffensive around Kharkiv, there was speculation of a Ukrainian advance east from Kharkiv to cut off Russian supply lines to Izyium. A push south from Zaporizhzhia has also been mooted - there's been a lot of Ukrainian attacks on Russian bases and logistics around Melitopol.
So, who knows?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
The boosters use old shuttle casings, but everything else was changed. Lots of billions of development there.
The main engines are shuttle engines rebuilt to a virtually different design. More billions there.
This gives you a core stage with no heritage and the wrong size and using the wrong fuel. To get it off the pad, SRBs with next to no heritage and sustained by engines that have been rebuilt into something else. Wonder if they got rid of the gold pins?
A couple of weeks back, when the wholesale/futures prices were lower, someone smart (Javier Blas? Adam Tooze?) said the profit margin on a single cargo shipment from America to Europe was greater than the entire cost of the vessel. With the recent substantial rise in Gas futures stretching to winter 2025, presumably loads more LNG vessels are being built, right now?
(The company seems to sell "English Toast" in various varieties, and this is the 'French toast' flavour...)
Landmark study ‘ends bitter debate on side effects’" (£)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/statins-muscle-pain-side-effect-study-r9fsf3w9l
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/10/22/how-those-saying-green-6-months-before-an-election-actually-voted/
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
Looking back at the 2015 Parliament most polls at this stage of that Parliament gave the Greens 2-3%, they actually scored 3.8% at the General Election. So there was a swing from Labour to the Greens from the midterm polls in that Parliament, not the other way around.
What's frustrating is that I have little sense of whether the things that would need to be done to provide a long-term solution were started in February (or even before), or if the last six months have been wasted?
There's so much discussion about it, but seemingly very little information. Getting through a difficult winter would be easier if we knew it wouldn't be so bad the winter after, and resolved by the winter after that.
Just made it, although I was out of bacon so used ham instead, and it was really, really good.
Thanks for the tip Robert. 👍😋
It's one of the things about him that I find instinctively least appealing, the sense that he's not interested in politics as a whole, but only in making it into the top job.
Edit: But, putting those feelings aside, I'd still be delighted if the 250-1 bets placed by some PBers came in.
What is different between now and then is that the opportunity for the Conservatives to reclaim votes from UKIP or the Brexit Party is largely gone.
RefUK is polling about the same as in 2019. However do not forget UKIP too increased its vote in 2010 and significantly in 2015 when it got over 10% when the centrist Cameron was Conservative leader
Also, if I was Truss, I might ask my team to feed a few different names to a few different people and observe which journalist the story surfaces with - it would give you an idea of who is talking to which journalist.
We increased gas production by 26% this year but that was simply pure chance. Three new gas fields have come online since the beginning of the year including one I have been heavily involved with but they have been planned and executed for years and have nothing to do with the current crisis or even planning from the last few years.