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An early by-election in Nadine’s seat? – politicalbetting.com

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    Dynamo said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This sounds eerily like Ukraine in Feb of this year. Let’s hope not


    “Taiwan is preparing air-raid shelters in underground spaces such as basement car parks, the subway system and subterranean shopping centres as fears of a Chinese attack increase. The capital, Taipei, has more than 4,600 such shelters that can accommodate 12 million people, more than four times its population. Reporting by Yimou Lee and Fabian Hamacher/Reuters
    Ann Wang / Reuters”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2022/aug/08/taiwan-prepares-for-life-underground-amid-china-threat-in-pictures

    They do this whenever China start to sabre rattle, just in case China is stupid enough to attempt an invasion. It's good future planning and is also good as a drill if as most likely China soon says the military exercise was a great success and go home.

    China know their ability to invade Taiwan is at best very poor, in reality they could maybe hope in taking the islands near the Chinese coast. Mind you were live in times of dictators massively over estimating the ability of their militaries.
    They will blockade, not attack

    China can cut Taiwan off from the rest of the world, then present a fait accompli. No more chips with everything, unless Taipei accepts Beijing rule. I reckon the West would fold rather than go to nuclear war over Taiwan. And then, without the west, Taiwan would reluctantly surrender. Xi gets his prize, China is unified, not a shot is fired, as with Hong Kong
    Implementing and maintaining a blockade are 2 different things. Taiwan is not Ukraine, it already has modern military equipment, including a large amount of anti ship missiles which have a range of 250 miles. As well as an actual submarine fleet.
    China would also need to gain aerial supremacy which will be very difficult as they only have 2 operational aircraft carriers currently. China could implement a blockade but they would find it very very difficult to maintain, and that's before any intervention from the rest of the world.
    The rest of the world, certainly the West and India, would also impose economic sanctions on China like the West has on Russia
    Yes, trade war has two sides. Prices of semiconductors would rocket - and probably of new clothes too, just to take one example, assuming there were still some new clothes on the market and not too much of the electronic hardware involved in distibuting them wasn't needing too much maintenance. There's no way conditions as most people know them in the West would continue in the event of a renewed outbreak of the Chinese civil war with the US piling in on one side.
    Well that is still better than WW3 which is the only other alternative
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,905
    Dynamo said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This sounds eerily like Ukraine in Feb of this year. Let’s hope not


    “Taiwan is preparing air-raid shelters in underground spaces such as basement car parks, the subway system and subterranean shopping centres as fears of a Chinese attack increase. The capital, Taipei, has more than 4,600 such shelters that can accommodate 12 million people, more than four times its population. Reporting by Yimou Lee and Fabian Hamacher/Reuters
    Ann Wang / Reuters”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2022/aug/08/taiwan-prepares-for-life-underground-amid-china-threat-in-pictures

    They do this whenever China start to sabre rattle, just in case China is stupid enough to attempt an invasion. It's good future planning and is also good as a drill if as most likely China soon says the military exercise was a great success and go home.

    China know their ability to invade Taiwan is at best very poor, in reality they could maybe hope in taking the islands near the Chinese coast. Mind you were live in times of dictators massively over estimating the ability of their militaries.
    They will blockade, not attack

    China can cut Taiwan off from the rest of the world, then present a fait accompli. No more chips with everything, unless Taipei accepts Beijing rule. I reckon the West would fold rather than go to nuclear war over Taiwan. And then, without the west, Taiwan would reluctantly surrender. Xi gets his prize, China is unified, not a shot is fired, as with Hong Kong
    Implementing and maintaining a blockade are 2 different things. Taiwan is not Ukraine, it already has modern military equipment, including a large amount of anti ship missiles which have a range of 250 miles. As well as an actual submarine fleet.
    China would also need to gain aerial supremacy which will be very difficult as they only have 2 operational aircraft carriers currently. China could implement a blockade but they would find it very very difficult to maintain, and that's before any intervention from the rest of the world.
    The rest of the world, certainly the West and India, would also impose economic sanctions on China like the West has on Russia
    Yes, trade war has two sides. Prices of semiconductors would rocket - and probably of new clothes too, just to take one example, assuming there were still some new clothes on the market and not too much of the electronic hardware involved in distibuting them wasn't needing too much maintenance. There's no way conditions as most people know them in the West would continue in the event of a renewed outbreak of the Chinese civil war with the US piling in on one side.
    It’s just occurred to me: if Taiwan is blockaded, stopping the export of chips, then much hi tech western weaponry would cease to function. Assisting Russia?

    However the same problem would apply to Chinese weapons….
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,757
    HYUFD said:

    Opinium

    LAB 37
    CON 34

    Best PM Truss leads SKS

    I am at a loss can any SKS fans please explain

    Starmer is a complete dud. Appallingly poor.
    David Cameron actually trailed Gordon Brown for a while when he took over as PM.

    It is the polls this time next year that will matter once the Truss bounce fades
    You are assuming she gets a bounce. Most new leaders do, but there is a reason for that. A new fresh face before things inevitably go wrong and the electorate get cynical. However stuff is going wrong even before she is elected with u turns, denials of what was said and car crash interviews. I think she will be lucky to get a bounce. Sunak however might.
  • HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Mad Nad will presumably only accept a peerage if she is accepting that her cabinet career is over. Whilst this is something for all sane Conservatives to devoutly pray for I would not be so confident. She has been pretty chummy with Truss of late.

    Mogg wants to be a "Knight Commander" apparently. You can combine that with continuing to serve the public as an MP.
    Mogg will likely be in Truss' cabinet alongside Braverman, Kwarteng, Cleverly, Lewis, Coffey, Baker, Redwood etc. Maybe even Francois
    Have the upper echelons just stopped caring what the rest of the public think?

    "We're going to lose in 2024/5, so let's have some fun in the meantime"?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This sounds eerily like Ukraine in Feb of this year. Let’s hope not


    “Taiwan is preparing air-raid shelters in underground spaces such as basement car parks, the subway system and subterranean shopping centres as fears of a Chinese attack increase. The capital, Taipei, has more than 4,600 such shelters that can accommodate 12 million people, more than four times its population. Reporting by Yimou Lee and Fabian Hamacher/Reuters
    Ann Wang / Reuters”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2022/aug/08/taiwan-prepares-for-life-underground-amid-china-threat-in-pictures

    They do this whenever China start to sabre rattle, just in case China is stupid enough to attempt an invasion. It's good future planning and is also good as a drill if as most likely China soon says the military exercise was a great success and go home.

    China know their ability to invade Taiwan is at best very poor, in reality they could maybe hope in taking the islands near the Chinese coast. Mind you were live in times of dictators massively over estimating the ability of their militaries.
    They will blockade, not attack

    China can cut Taiwan off from the rest of the world, then present a fait accompli. No more chips with everything, unless Taipei accepts Beijing rule. I reckon the West would fold rather than go to nuclear war over Taiwan. And then, without the west, Taiwan would reluctantly surrender. Xi gets his prize, China is unified, not a shot is fired, as with Hong Kong
    If Ukraine can break the Russian naval blockade by sinking a few ships with Western donated missiles then I'm struggling to see how the Chinese Navy will enforce a blockade of Taiwan.
    Because the Chinese navy is the biggest in the world, supported by a huge airforce and missile capability, and Taiwan is right offshore of China?
    On paper the Russian naval advantage over Ukraine was much, much bigger than China's naval advantage, if any, over Taiwan and a couple of US carrier groups.
    China has the biggest navy in the world, and a huge proportion of it is concentrated in and around the S China Sea


    https://news.usni.org/2021/11/03/china-has-worlds-largest-navy-with-355-ships-and-counting-says-pentagon

    The US navy, which is smaller (but more high tech) is scattered across the globe
    True, but invasion by sea is regarded as one of the most challenging forms of invasion. The Chinese are just sabre rattling.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,172
    edited August 2022

    A tricky one for Labour to de facto concede to the Libdems as we did in T&H, as the proportion is nearly 2:1 and Labour has been second since 2015. This is the sort of seat that will be awkward at the GE too. With a formal pact we could trade Parliamentary concessions for conessions in County/borough sears, but where it's a nod and a wink, that doesn't work so well. On the other hand, a LD win would certainly shake the Blue Wall...

    Surely it depends on whether other seats are contested at the same time.

    Bedfordshire and Uxbridge say would allow both parties to concentrate on their strength.

    Bedfordshire by itself would be hard for Labour not to contest although it's a perfect Blue Wall seat for the Lib Dems..
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Mad Nad will presumably only accept a peerage if she is accepting that her cabinet career is over. Whilst this is something for all sane Conservatives to devoutly pray for I would not be so confident. She has been pretty chummy with Truss of late.

    Mogg wants to be a "Knight Commander" apparently. You can combine that with continuing to serve the public as an MP.
    Mogg will likely be in Truss' cabinet alongside Braverman, Kwarteng, Cleverly, Lewis, Coffey, Baker, Redwood etc. Maybe even Francois
    Have the upper echelons just stopped caring what the rest of the public think?

    "We're going to lose in 2024/5, so let's have some fun in the meantime"?
    I did warn people on here if Boris went his replacements government might be even more right-wing. If Truss beats Sunak that will certainly be the case given she was the candidate of the ERG
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,790
    Dura_Ace said:

    dixiedean said:

    DavidL said:

    Mad Nad will presumably only accept a peerage if she is accepting that her cabinet career is over. Whilst this is something for all sane Conservatives to devoutly pray for I would not be so confident. She has been pretty chummy with Truss of late.

    Can't she be in the Cabinet from the Lords?
    I mean. She doesn't deserve to be, but she could.
    Nadine Dorries is 65 years old which might also be a factor.
    She looks good for her age.
    JRM is six months younger than Nicky Wire out the Manics.
    Yes, but he wouldn't look good at any age.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,270
    edited August 2022

    Opinium

    LAB 37
    CON 34

    Best PM Truss leads SKS

    I am at a loss can any SKS fans please explain

    Not an SKS fan, but you know well enough that Opinium's current methodology proposes swingback. This poll is therefore not a snapshot (which would give Labour a circa 8% lead) it is a projection for the next GE. Now this may be more accurate, who knows?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,905

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This sounds eerily like Ukraine in Feb of this year. Let’s hope not


    “Taiwan is preparing air-raid shelters in underground spaces such as basement car parks, the subway system and subterranean shopping centres as fears of a Chinese attack increase. The capital, Taipei, has more than 4,600 such shelters that can accommodate 12 million people, more than four times its population. Reporting by Yimou Lee and Fabian Hamacher/Reuters
    Ann Wang / Reuters”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2022/aug/08/taiwan-prepares-for-life-underground-amid-china-threat-in-pictures

    They do this whenever China start to sabre rattle, just in case China is stupid enough to attempt an invasion. It's good future planning and is also good as a drill if as most likely China soon says the military exercise was a great success and go home.

    China know their ability to invade Taiwan is at best very poor, in reality they could maybe hope in taking the islands near the Chinese coast. Mind you were live in times of dictators massively over estimating the ability of their militaries.
    They will blockade, not attack

    China can cut Taiwan off from the rest of the world, then present a fait accompli. No more chips with everything, unless Taipei accepts Beijing rule. I reckon the West would fold rather than go to nuclear war over Taiwan. And then, without the west, Taiwan would reluctantly surrender. Xi gets his prize, China is unified, not a shot is fired, as with Hong Kong
    If Ukraine can break the Russian naval blockade by sinking a few ships with Western donated missiles then I'm struggling to see how the Chinese Navy will enforce a blockade of Taiwan.
    Because the Chinese navy is the biggest in the world, supported by a huge airforce and missile capability, and Taiwan is right offshore of China?
    On paper the Russian naval advantage over Ukraine was much, much bigger than China's naval advantage, if any, over Taiwan and a couple of US carrier groups.
    China has the biggest navy in the world, and a huge proportion of it is concentrated in and around the S China Sea


    https://news.usni.org/2021/11/03/china-has-worlds-largest-navy-with-355-ships-and-counting-says-pentagon

    The US navy, which is smaller (but more high tech) is scattered across the globe
    True, but invasion by sea is regarded as one of the most challenging forms of invasion. The Chinese are just sabre rattling.
    They will blockade, not invade, if they do anything

    A cold American appraisal

    ‘while most American politicians have yet to recognize it, the military balance in the Taiwan Strait has been transformed in the quarter century since the last Taiwan crisis. The local balance of power has shifted decisively in China’s favor. As I explained in an article published here last year, the United States could lose a war over Taiwan. Indeed, as former Deputy Secretary of Defense Robert Work has stated publicly, in the Pentagon’s most realistic simulations and sensitive war games, in conflicts limited to Taiwan, the score is eighteen to zero, and the eighteen is not Team USA.’


    https://nationalinterest.org/feature/taiwan-thucydides-and-us-china-war-204060
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    China announces fresh military drills around Taiwan

    https://twitter.com/reuterschina/status/1556536151615217665

    This looks really quite ominous, now

    If you are Xi, attacking/blockading Taiwan this autumn - as the West is severely weakened by Ukraine/energy, makes a lot of sense. The blithering Biden is in the White House. The Pentagon is enfeebled by lack of confidence, post Afghanistan. Taiwan is still isolated by Covid

    It might indeed have been coordinated with Putin
    Very generous of Putin to destroy his army, in order to make life easier for China.

    A sensible Russian leader would recognise the vulnerability of Eastern Siberia to Chinese revanchism.

    IMHO, an invasion of Taiwan would be a fiasco for China, although the drawback of dictatorships is that military leaders aren't allowed to tell the dictator he's making a bad mistake.
    Putin is doing OK in Ukraine, despite enormous losses. All Xi will care about is that Putin’s invasion has got the West rattled, and facing recession, and therefore badly weakened. Was it all coordinated? Planned? Russia attacks in spring, China moves in autumn? Perhaps

    Also, Xi does not have to invade Taiwan, he can blockade it

    ‘Seoul, South Korea (CNN)China's military exercises show Beijing doesn't need to invade Taiwan to control it -- rather it can strangle the self-ruled island, cutting it off from the outside world, Chinese and American analysts say.’

    https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/08/asia/china-taiwan-military-exercises-what-we-learned-intl-hnk-ml/index.html
    Putin is not doing ok in Ukraine. It is a military disaster and likely to get worse in next couple of months before winter shut down.

    What happened to this much-vaunted Kherson counter-attack? By the Ukes?

    I would love to believe Russia is on the verge of collapse but I don’t buy it, because I can’t see it. What I see is a stalemate that leaves Russia in possession of a third of Ukraine

    It’s neither victory nor defeat
    "Ukraine War Map
    @War_Mapper
    Over the month of July 🇷🇺 increased the area of land they control in Ukraine by approximately 165 km².

    This equates to a total of ~19.4% of Ukraine being occupied. ~0.02% more than at the end of June."


    https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1554989202395242497
    I was using shorthand. I readily accept it is 20% in truth. Still a hefty chunk
    "What happened to this much-vaunted Kherson counter-attack? By the Ukes?"

    It seems to be far more subtle than a straight counter-attack. They are feigning attack so Ruskies pour more troops into the area and then the Ukr blow up more supply lines.

    See:

    Phillips P. OBrien
    @PhillipsPOBrien
    ·
    5h
    Building on yesterday’s update, the Ukrainians last night did exactly what was expected after the Russians rushed more troops to Kherson. They once again attacked the few crucial bridges needed to supply those troops.

    https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1556508225893240833
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,757
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This sounds eerily like Ukraine in Feb of this year. Let’s hope not


    “Taiwan is preparing air-raid shelters in underground spaces such as basement car parks, the subway system and subterranean shopping centres as fears of a Chinese attack increase. The capital, Taipei, has more than 4,600 such shelters that can accommodate 12 million people, more than four times its population. Reporting by Yimou Lee and Fabian Hamacher/Reuters
    Ann Wang / Reuters”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2022/aug/08/taiwan-prepares-for-life-underground-amid-china-threat-in-pictures

    They do this whenever China start to sabre rattle, just in case China is stupid enough to attempt an invasion. It's good future planning and is also good as a drill if as most likely China soon says the military exercise was a great success and go home.

    China know their ability to invade Taiwan is at best very poor, in reality they could maybe hope in taking the islands near the Chinese coast. Mind you were live in times of dictators massively over estimating the ability of their militaries.
    They will blockade, not attack

    China can cut Taiwan off from the rest of the world, then present a fait accompli. No more chips with everything, unless Taipei accepts Beijing rule. I reckon the West would fold rather than go to nuclear war over Taiwan. And then, without the west, Taiwan would reluctantly surrender. Xi gets his prize, China is unified, not a shot is fired, as with Hong Kong
    Implementing and maintaining a blockade are 2 different things. Taiwan is not Ukraine, it already has modern military equipment, including a large amount of anti ship missiles which have a range of 250 miles. As well as an actual submarine fleet.
    China would also need to gain aerial supremacy which will be very difficult as they only have 2 operational aircraft carriers currently. China could implement a blockade but they would find it very very difficult to maintain, and that's before any intervention from the rest of the world.
    The rest of the world, certainly the West and India, would also impose economic sanctions on China like the West has on Russia
    We are dependent upon Russia for certain commodities which we can source elsewhere, but at a cost because, well they are commodities, so if there is a shortage everyone's price goes up even if you have an alternative source.

    However China supplies so much more other stuff which we can't source elsewhere. It isn't just price dependency in the short term, it is more than that. In other words we are stuffed without China.
  • HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Mad Nad will presumably only accept a peerage if she is accepting that her cabinet career is over. Whilst this is something for all sane Conservatives to devoutly pray for I would not be so confident. She has been pretty chummy with Truss of late.

    Mogg wants to be a "Knight Commander" apparently. You can combine that with continuing to serve the public as an MP.
    Mogg will likely be in Truss' cabinet alongside Braverman, Kwarteng, Cleverly, Lewis, Coffey, Baker, Redwood etc. Maybe even Francois
    God help us all.
  • There really are no depths that Boris Johnson will not descend to in making our country and constitution a laughing stock. Nadine Dorries, a peer of the Realm. The man is a cretin.

    And speaking of cretins, Daniel Johnson wants us to all believe that Boris Johnson didn't think he was lying when he told the HoCs that he was not aware of parties. What an idiot. : https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/daniel-johnson-boris-johnson-has-done-nothing-to-warrant-this-shameful-stitch-up/ar-AA10pXGT?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=37844e3b4ee4417083cefc44fc5f72fe

    The mere existence of Operation Save Big Dog from the Privileges Committee's inquiry into whether Boris lied about partygate (not the catchiest title) should imo be taken to indicate the Prime Minister does intend to remain an MP so he can be recalled to rescue the party in a year or two.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This sounds eerily like Ukraine in Feb of this year. Let’s hope not


    “Taiwan is preparing air-raid shelters in underground spaces such as basement car parks, the subway system and subterranean shopping centres as fears of a Chinese attack increase. The capital, Taipei, has more than 4,600 such shelters that can accommodate 12 million people, more than four times its population. Reporting by Yimou Lee and Fabian Hamacher/Reuters
    Ann Wang / Reuters”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2022/aug/08/taiwan-prepares-for-life-underground-amid-china-threat-in-pictures

    They do this whenever China start to sabre rattle, just in case China is stupid enough to attempt an invasion. It's good future planning and is also good as a drill if as most likely China soon says the military exercise was a great success and go home.

    China know their ability to invade Taiwan is at best very poor, in reality they could maybe hope in taking the islands near the Chinese coast. Mind you were live in times of dictators massively over estimating the ability of their militaries.
    They will blockade, not attack

    China can cut Taiwan off from the rest of the world, then present a fait accompli. No more chips with everything, unless Taipei accepts Beijing rule. I reckon the West would fold rather than go to nuclear war over Taiwan. And then, without the west, Taiwan would reluctantly surrender. Xi gets his prize, China is unified, not a shot is fired, as with Hong Kong
    Sorry but Hong Kong provides no historical precedent. Hong Kong was handed back as the lease was ended. No shots were fired because the UK stuck to it's international agreement. It used to do that back then.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,872
    edited August 2022

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Mad Nad will presumably only accept a peerage if she is accepting that her cabinet career is over. Whilst this is something for all sane Conservatives to devoutly pray for I would not be so confident. She has been pretty chummy with Truss of late.

    Mogg wants to be a "Knight Commander" apparently. You can combine that with continuing to serve the public as an MP.
    Mogg will likely be in Truss' cabinet alongside Braverman, Kwarteng, Cleverly, Lewis, Coffey, Baker, Redwood etc. Maybe even Francois
    Have the upper echelons just stopped caring what the rest of the public think?

    "We're going to lose in 2024/5, so let's have some fun in the meantime"?
    What credentials does Kwazy Kwoissant have, apart from supporting Cheezy (and I think allegedly having an affair with her in the past)?
  • As its now available in my area I am considering ordering Starlink...

    My understanding, based entirely on anecdata, is Starlink is better than nothing but otherwise, for the moment you'd do better with a mainstream ISP which is likely faster and more reliable.
    To get Starlink speeds, said mainstream ISPs are 15x more expensive to install and 2x more expensive per month...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,011
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Mad Nad will presumably only accept a peerage if she is accepting that her cabinet career is over. Whilst this is something for all sane Conservatives to devoutly pray for I would not be so confident. She has been pretty chummy with Truss of late.

    Mogg wants to be a "Knight Commander" apparently. You can combine that with continuing to serve the public as an MP.
    Mogg will likely be in Truss' cabinet alongside Braverman, Kwarteng, Cleverly, Lewis, Coffey, Baker, Redwood etc. Maybe even Francois
    Yes, looking forward to it. A cabinet of all the talents.

    Think Mogg will be the only Knight Commander though - should he be rewarded for his constancy with that particular honour.

    James Bond was one, wasn't he? Big shoes to fill.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,270
    edited August 2022

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Mad Nad will presumably only accept a peerage if she is accepting that her cabinet career is over. Whilst this is something for all sane Conservatives to devoutly pray for I would not be so confident. She has been pretty chummy with Truss of late.

    Mogg wants to be a "Knight Commander" apparently. You can combine that with continuing to serve the public as an MP.
    Mogg will likely be in Truss' cabinet alongside Braverman, Kwarteng, Cleverly, Lewis, Coffey, Baker, Redwood etc. Maybe even Francois
    Have the upper echelons just stopped caring what the rest of the public think?

    "We're going to lose in 2024/5, so let's have some fun in the meantime"?
    What credentials does Kwazy Kwoissant have, apart from supporting Cheezy (and I think allegedly having an affair with her in the past)?
    Rudd-y hell! I think you may have that wrong! Amber light spells danger.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Mad Nad will presumably only accept a peerage if she is accepting that her cabinet career is over. Whilst this is something for all sane Conservatives to devoutly pray for I would not be so confident. She has been pretty chummy with Truss of late.

    Mogg wants to be a "Knight Commander" apparently. You can combine that with continuing to serve the public as an MP.
    Mogg will likely be in Truss' cabinet alongside Braverman, Kwarteng, Cleverly, Lewis, Coffey, Baker, Redwood etc. Maybe even Francois
    Have the upper echelons just stopped caring what the rest of the public think?

    "We're going to lose in 2024/5, so let's have some fun in the meantime"?
    I did warn people on here if Boris went his replacements government might be even more right-wing. If Truss beats Sunak that will certainly be the case given she was the candidate of the ERG
    You did indeed.

    always keep a-hold of Nurse
    For fear of finding something worse.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289

    There really are no depths that Boris Johnson will not descend to in making our country and constitution a laughing stock. Nadine Dorries, a peer of the Realm. The man is a cretin.

    And speaking of cretins, Daniel Johnson wants us to all believe that Boris Johnson didn't think he was lying when he told the HoCs that he was not aware of parties. What an idiot. : https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/daniel-johnson-boris-johnson-has-done-nothing-to-warrant-this-shameful-stitch-up/ar-AA10pXGT?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=37844e3b4ee4417083cefc44fc5f72fe

    The mere existence of Operation Save Big Dog from the Privileges Committee's inquiry into whether Boris lied about partygate (not the catchiest title) should imo be taken to indicate the Prime Minister does intend to remain an MP so he can be recalled to rescue the party in a year or two.
    He would need enough MPs to support him. Rees Mogg and Nadine and a handful of the very thickest of the ERG will not make the numbers. He is a very busted flush, thank God.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    A blockade of Taiwan would mean China destroying its own hi tech manufacturing industry.

    How long do the experts think this blockade will last?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This sounds eerily like Ukraine in Feb of this year. Let’s hope not


    “Taiwan is preparing air-raid shelters in underground spaces such as basement car parks, the subway system and subterranean shopping centres as fears of a Chinese attack increase. The capital, Taipei, has more than 4,600 such shelters that can accommodate 12 million people, more than four times its population. Reporting by Yimou Lee and Fabian Hamacher/Reuters
    Ann Wang / Reuters”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2022/aug/08/taiwan-prepares-for-life-underground-amid-china-threat-in-pictures

    They do this whenever China start to sabre rattle, just in case China is stupid enough to attempt an invasion. It's good future planning and is also good as a drill if as most likely China soon says the military exercise was a great success and go home.

    China know their ability to invade Taiwan is at best very poor, in reality they could maybe hope in taking the islands near the Chinese coast. Mind you were live in times of dictators massively over estimating the ability of their militaries.
    They will blockade, not attack

    China can cut Taiwan off from the rest of the world, then present a fait accompli. No more chips with everything, unless Taipei accepts Beijing rule. I reckon the West would fold rather than go to nuclear war over Taiwan. And then, without the west, Taiwan would reluctantly surrender. Xi gets his prize, China is unified, not a shot is fired, as with Hong Kong
    Implementing and maintaining a blockade are 2 different things. Taiwan is not Ukraine, it already has modern military equipment, including a large amount of anti ship missiles which have a range of 250 miles. As well as an actual submarine fleet.
    China would also need to gain aerial supremacy which will be very difficult as they only have 2 operational aircraft carriers currently. China could implement a blockade but they would find it very very difficult to maintain, and that's before any intervention from the rest of the world.
    The rest of the world, certainly the West and India, would also impose economic sanctions on China like the West has on Russia
    We are dependent upon Russia for certain commodities which we can source elsewhere, but at a cost because, well they are commodities, so if there is a shortage everyone's price goes up even if you have an alternative source.

    However China supplies so much more other stuff which we can't source elsewhere. It isn't just price dependency in the short term, it is more than that. In other words we are stuffed without China.
    And China is also stuffed if it cannot export to us.

    What is clear is if Taiwan is invaded by China and blockaded so we can't even send arms in, the choice would be either economic sanctions of some form or World War 3
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,217
    Leon said:

    Dynamo said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This sounds eerily like Ukraine in Feb of this year. Let’s hope not


    “Taiwan is preparing air-raid shelters in underground spaces such as basement car parks, the subway system and subterranean shopping centres as fears of a Chinese attack increase. The capital, Taipei, has more than 4,600 such shelters that can accommodate 12 million people, more than four times its population. Reporting by Yimou Lee and Fabian Hamacher/Reuters
    Ann Wang / Reuters”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2022/aug/08/taiwan-prepares-for-life-underground-amid-china-threat-in-pictures

    They do this whenever China start to sabre rattle, just in case China is stupid enough to attempt an invasion. It's good future planning and is also good as a drill if as most likely China soon says the military exercise was a great success and go home.

    China know their ability to invade Taiwan is at best very poor, in reality they could maybe hope in taking the islands near the Chinese coast. Mind you were live in times of dictators massively over estimating the ability of their militaries.
    They will blockade, not attack

    China can cut Taiwan off from the rest of the world, then present a fait accompli. No more chips with everything, unless Taipei accepts Beijing rule. I reckon the West would fold rather than go to nuclear war over Taiwan. And then, without the west, Taiwan would reluctantly surrender. Xi gets his prize, China is unified, not a shot is fired, as with Hong Kong
    Implementing and maintaining a blockade are 2 different things. Taiwan is not Ukraine, it already has modern military equipment, including a large amount of anti ship missiles which have a range of 250 miles. As well as an actual submarine fleet.
    China would also need to gain aerial supremacy which will be very difficult as they only have 2 operational aircraft carriers currently. China could implement a blockade but they would find it very very difficult to maintain, and that's before any intervention from the rest of the world.
    The rest of the world, certainly the West and India, would also impose economic sanctions on China like the West has on Russia
    Yes, trade war has two sides. Prices of semiconductors would rocket - and probably of new clothes too, just to take one example, assuming there were still some new clothes on the market and not too much of the electronic hardware involved in distibuting them wasn't needing too much maintenance. There's no way conditions as most people know them in the West would continue in the event of a renewed outbreak of the Chinese civil war with the US piling in on one side.
    It’s just occurred to me: if Taiwan is blockaded, stopping the export of chips, then much hi tech western weaponry would cease to function. Assisting Russia?

    However the same problem would apply to Chinese weapons….
    My understanding is that the development times on most hi-tech weaponry is so long that they don't use the latest chips, but older ones that we wouldn't be reliant on Taiwan for weapons production.

    But other bits of the economy obviously do use the latest chips and would be affected.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This sounds eerily like Ukraine in Feb of this year. Let’s hope not


    “Taiwan is preparing air-raid shelters in underground spaces such as basement car parks, the subway system and subterranean shopping centres as fears of a Chinese attack increase. The capital, Taipei, has more than 4,600 such shelters that can accommodate 12 million people, more than four times its population. Reporting by Yimou Lee and Fabian Hamacher/Reuters
    Ann Wang / Reuters”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2022/aug/08/taiwan-prepares-for-life-underground-amid-china-threat-in-pictures

    They do this whenever China start to sabre rattle, just in case China is stupid enough to attempt an invasion. It's good future planning and is also good as a drill if as most likely China soon says the military exercise was a great success and go home.

    China know their ability to invade Taiwan is at best very poor, in reality they could maybe hope in taking the islands near the Chinese coast. Mind you were live in times of dictators massively over estimating the ability of their militaries.
    They will blockade, not attack

    China can cut Taiwan off from the rest of the world, then present a fait accompli. No more chips with everything, unless Taipei accepts Beijing rule. I reckon the West would fold rather than go to nuclear war over Taiwan. And then, without the west, Taiwan would reluctantly surrender. Xi gets his prize, China is unified, not a shot is fired, as with Hong Kong
    If Ukraine can break the Russian naval blockade by sinking a few ships with Western donated missiles then I'm struggling to see how the Chinese Navy will enforce a blockade of Taiwan.
    Because the Chinese navy is the biggest in the world, supported by a huge airforce and missile capability, and Taiwan is right offshore of China?
    On paper the Russian naval advantage over Ukraine was much, much bigger than China's naval advantage, if any, over Taiwan and a couple of US carrier groups.
    China has the biggest navy in the world, and a huge proportion of it is concentrated in and around the S China Sea


    https://news.usni.org/2021/11/03/china-has-worlds-largest-navy-with-355-ships-and-counting-says-pentagon

    The US navy, which is smaller (but more high tech) is scattered across the globe
    True, but invasion by sea is regarded as one of the most challenging forms of invasion. The Chinese are just sabre rattling.
    They will blockade, not invade, if they do anything

    A cold American appraisal

    ‘while most American politicians have yet to recognize it, the military balance in the Taiwan Strait has been transformed in the quarter century since the last Taiwan crisis. The local balance of power has shifted decisively in China’s favor. As I explained in an article published here last year, the United States could lose a war over Taiwan. Indeed, as former Deputy Secretary of Defense Robert Work has stated publicly, in the Pentagon’s most realistic simulations and sensitive war games, in conflicts limited to Taiwan, the score is eighteen to zero, and the eighteen is not Team USA.’


    https://nationalinterest.org/feature/taiwan-thucydides-and-us-china-war-204060
    China would find occupying Taiwan however no easier than Russia has in Ukraine or the US and Russia did in Afghanistan
  • There really are no depths that Boris Johnson will not descend to in making our country and constitution a laughing stock. Nadine Dorries, a peer of the Realm. The man is a cretin.

    And speaking of cretins, Daniel Johnson wants us to all believe that Boris Johnson didn't think he was lying when he told the HoCs that he was not aware of parties. What an idiot. : https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/daniel-johnson-boris-johnson-has-done-nothing-to-warrant-this-shameful-stitch-up/ar-AA10pXGT?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=37844e3b4ee4417083cefc44fc5f72fe

    The mere existence of Operation Save Big Dog from the Privileges Committee's inquiry into whether Boris lied about partygate (not the catchiest title) should imo be taken to indicate the Prime Minister does intend to remain an MP so he can be recalled to rescue the party in a year or two.
    He would need enough MPs to support him. Rees Mogg and Nadine and a handful of the very thickest of the ERG will not make the numbers. He is a very busted flush, thank God.
    He's busted with the wider public, sure. But with what's left of the Conservative party?

    Let's suppose Truss blows up in a year, as well she might. The temptation to go back to Boris would be immense.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,790
    Russian Duma member goes on prime time TV to tell Germany “We will come and kill you all”.
    https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1556171970521219074
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,011
    Dura_Ace said:

    dixiedean said:

    DavidL said:

    Mad Nad will presumably only accept a peerage if she is accepting that her cabinet career is over. Whilst this is something for all sane Conservatives to devoutly pray for I would not be so confident. She has been pretty chummy with Truss of late.

    Can't she be in the Cabinet from the Lords?
    I mean. She doesn't deserve to be, but she could.
    Nadine Dorries is 65 years old which might also be a factor.
    She looks good for her age.
    JRM is six months younger than Nicky Wire out the Manics.
    Who isn't a Knight Commander and is unlikely ever to be. Funny old world.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,270
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Mad Nad will presumably only accept a peerage if she is accepting that her cabinet career is over. Whilst this is something for all sane Conservatives to devoutly pray for I would not be so confident. She has been pretty chummy with Truss of late.

    Mogg wants to be a "Knight Commander" apparently. You can combine that with continuing to serve the public as an MP.
    Mogg will likely be in Truss' cabinet alongside Braverman, Kwarteng, Cleverly, Lewis, Coffey, Baker, Redwood etc. Maybe even Francois
    Wow, a who's who of Westminster talent.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,790
    Russians laid mines in NPP in Enerhodar, threatening to blow it up.

    "Here will be either Russian land or a desert. The nuclear power plant will be either Russian or no one's," commander of the garrison Valeriy Vasiliev said in a statement later deleted

    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1556594872202715139
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575

    There really are no depths that Boris Johnson will not descend to in making our country and constitution a laughing stock. Nadine Dorries, a peer of the Realm. The man is a cretin.

    And speaking of cretins, Daniel Johnson wants us to all believe that Boris Johnson didn't think he was lying when he told the HoCs that he was not aware of parties. What an idiot. : https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/daniel-johnson-boris-johnson-has-done-nothing-to-warrant-this-shameful-stitch-up/ar-AA10pXGT?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=37844e3b4ee4417083cefc44fc5f72fe

    The mere existence of Operation Save Big Dog from the Privileges Committee's inquiry into whether Boris lied about partygate (not the catchiest title) should imo be taken to indicate the Prime Minister does intend to remain an MP so he can be recalled to rescue the party in a year or two.
    He would need enough MPs to support him. Rees Mogg and Nadine and a handful of the very thickest of the ERG will not make the numbers. He is a very busted flush, thank God.
    He's busted with the wider public, sure. But with what's left of the Conservative party?

    Let's suppose Truss blows up in a year, as well she might. The temptation to go back to Boris would be immense.
    The polling also shows both 2019 Tory voters and Tory members prefer Boris to both Truss and Sunak
  • Star Sports interviews American political punter, Alex Keeney, who founded the Star Spangled Gamblers podcast which someone here was raving about recently (hmm).

    Alex Keeney – also known commonly as @keendawg - is the founder of the Star Spangled Gamblers podcast – one of the leading political betting podcasts on the net, with a focus on American political markets, where Alex interviews the top minds in political betting about the most popular issues of the day.

    Prior to founding SSG, Alex was a screenwriter in Hollywood, a policy advisor in the U.S. House of Representatives, and a marketing executive for Jordan Belfort, better known as the real Wolf of Wall Street!



    Part 1 is on Youtube now. We can expect the rest to follow day by day.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hoTjzF6fWDI
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,326
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    China announces fresh military drills around Taiwan

    https://twitter.com/reuterschina/status/1556536151615217665

    This looks really quite ominous, now

    If you are Xi, attacking/blockading Taiwan this autumn - as the West is severely weakened by Ukraine/energy, makes a lot of sense. The blithering Biden is in the White House. The Pentagon is enfeebled by lack of confidence, post Afghanistan. Taiwan is still isolated by Covid

    It might indeed have been coordinated with Putin
    Very generous of Putin to destroy his army, in order to make life easier for China.

    A sensible Russian leader would recognise the vulnerability of Eastern Siberia to Chinese revanchism.

    IMHO, an invasion of Taiwan would be a fiasco for China, although the drawback of dictatorships is that military leaders aren't allowed to tell the dictator he's making a bad mistake.
    Putin is doing OK in Ukraine, despite enormous losses. All Xi will care about is that Putin’s invasion has got the West rattled, and facing recession, and therefore badly weakened. Was it all coordinated? Planned? Russia attacks in spring, China moves in autumn? Perhaps

    Also, Xi does not have to invade Taiwan, he can blockade it

    ‘Seoul, South Korea (CNN)China's military exercises show Beijing doesn't need to invade Taiwan to control it -- rather it can strangle the self-ruled island, cutting it off from the outside world, Chinese and American analysts say.’

    https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/08/asia/china-taiwan-military-exercises-what-we-learned-intl-hnk-ml/index.html
    Putin has destroyed forever, the notion that Russia is the second strongest military power in the world.

    An attack on Taiwan would certainly do the West a lot of harm. It would do China more harm, however. The Russian and Chinese leaderships doubtless believe that their opponents are so soft and decadent that they'll collapse.

    Dictators tend to believe in the "fremen mirage". It's the belief that people ruled by dictators are tougher, more many and martial, than the inhabitants of soft democracies. Actual military history does not bear that out. They mistake vast parades of thousands goose-stepping in perfect unison with military effectiveness/
    Read that CNN article quoting American analysts. China won’t invade it will blockade. It now has enough ships in place it can basically do that already
    This interesting thread from The New Statesman also thinks invasion/war is unlikely.

    https://twitter.com/newstatesman/status/1556537582917492737?s=21&t=VIYOpc6Zclcu2hia_LCGgg
    I found that thread quite persuasive.

    The crucial point, for me, is that Chinese policy-making, both domestic and foreign policy, is often strategic and long=term - they're pretty patient, and usually won't be rushed into hasty decisions - unless forced. This is for obvious reasons, that aren't so good - they don't need to worry too much about what the citizens think. But the contrast with the short-termism of Western democracies, whose leaders always think about the election cycle of the next few years rather than the next 50 years, is pretty stark.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,872

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Mad Nad will presumably only accept a peerage if she is accepting that her cabinet career is over. Whilst this is something for all sane Conservatives to devoutly pray for I would not be so confident. She has been pretty chummy with Truss of late.

    Mogg wants to be a "Knight Commander" apparently. You can combine that with continuing to serve the public as an MP.
    Mogg will likely be in Truss' cabinet alongside Braverman, Kwarteng, Cleverly, Lewis, Coffey, Baker, Redwood etc. Maybe even Francois
    Have the upper echelons just stopped caring what the rest of the public think?

    "We're going to lose in 2024/5, so let's have some fun in the meantime"?
    What credentials does Kwazy Kwoissant have, apart from supporting Cheezy (and I think allegedly having an affair with her in the past)?
    Rudd-y hell! I think you may have that wrong! Amber light spells danger.
    Apologies to Liz and Kwazy their, I misread. I withdraw it unreservedly
  • Opinium

    LAB 37
    CON 34

    Best PM Truss leads SKS

    I am at a loss can any SKS fans please explain

    Starmer is a complete dud. Appallingly poor.
    Ahh that would explain it.

    SKS fans do not concur (yet)
    Hey old chap, hope you are well.

    Who should replace KS and why would they be doing better? I would like polling evidence to support your conclusion
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This sounds eerily like Ukraine in Feb of this year. Let’s hope not


    “Taiwan is preparing air-raid shelters in underground spaces such as basement car parks, the subway system and subterranean shopping centres as fears of a Chinese attack increase. The capital, Taipei, has more than 4,600 such shelters that can accommodate 12 million people, more than four times its population. Reporting by Yimou Lee and Fabian Hamacher/Reuters
    Ann Wang / Reuters”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2022/aug/08/taiwan-prepares-for-life-underground-amid-china-threat-in-pictures

    They do this whenever China start to sabre rattle, just in case China is stupid enough to attempt an invasion. It's good future planning and is also good as a drill if as most likely China soon says the military exercise was a great success and go home.

    China know their ability to invade Taiwan is at best very poor, in reality they could maybe hope in taking the islands near the Chinese coast. Mind you were live in times of dictators massively over estimating the ability of their militaries.
    They will blockade, not attack

    China can cut Taiwan off from the rest of the world, then present a fait accompli. No more chips with everything, unless Taipei accepts Beijing rule. I reckon the West would fold rather than go to nuclear war over Taiwan. And then, without the west, Taiwan would reluctantly surrender. Xi gets his prize, China is unified, not a shot is fired, as with Hong Kong
    If Ukraine can break the Russian naval blockade by sinking a few ships with Western donated missiles then I'm struggling to see how the Chinese Navy will enforce a blockade of Taiwan.
    Because the Chinese navy is the biggest in the world, supported by a huge airforce and missile capability, and Taiwan is right offshore of China?
    On paper the Russian naval advantage over Ukraine was much, much bigger than China's naval advantage, if any, over Taiwan and a couple of US carrier groups.
    China has the biggest navy in the world, and a huge proportion of it is concentrated in and around the S China Sea


    https://news.usni.org/2021/11/03/china-has-worlds-largest-navy-with-355-ships-and-counting-says-pentagon

    The US navy, which is smaller (but more high tech) is scattered across the globe
    True, but invasion by sea is regarded as one of the most challenging forms of invasion. The Chinese are just sabre rattling.
    They will blockade, not invade, if they do anything

    A cold American appraisal

    ‘while most American politicians have yet to recognize it, the military balance in the Taiwan Strait has been transformed in the quarter century since the last Taiwan crisis. The local balance of power has shifted decisively in China’s favor. As I explained in an article published here last year, the United States could lose a war over Taiwan. Indeed, as former Deputy Secretary of Defense Robert Work has stated publicly, in the Pentagon’s most realistic simulations and sensitive war games, in conflicts limited to Taiwan, the score is eighteen to zero, and the eighteen is not Team USA.’


    https://nationalinterest.org/feature/taiwan-thucydides-and-us-china-war-204060
    Interesting. I hope I am not proven to be very wrong, but my reading of the international tealeaves is that the Chinese will not invade or blockade. Xi is not Putin. He clearly has full confidence in his penis size. He will agitate and then I imagine will then follow with some soft power to weaken American links and then "persuade" the Taiwanese to recognise Bejing's sovereignty and allow them to have semi-autonomy. This may take a while because HK's semi autonomy has not been a roaring success, but Xi will be looking at a very long long game.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,757
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This sounds eerily like Ukraine in Feb of this year. Let’s hope not


    “Taiwan is preparing air-raid shelters in underground spaces such as basement car parks, the subway system and subterranean shopping centres as fears of a Chinese attack increase. The capital, Taipei, has more than 4,600 such shelters that can accommodate 12 million people, more than four times its population. Reporting by Yimou Lee and Fabian Hamacher/Reuters
    Ann Wang / Reuters”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2022/aug/08/taiwan-prepares-for-life-underground-amid-china-threat-in-pictures

    They do this whenever China start to sabre rattle, just in case China is stupid enough to attempt an invasion. It's good future planning and is also good as a drill if as most likely China soon says the military exercise was a great success and go home.

    China know their ability to invade Taiwan is at best very poor, in reality they could maybe hope in taking the islands near the Chinese coast. Mind you were live in times of dictators massively over estimating the ability of their militaries.
    They will blockade, not attack

    China can cut Taiwan off from the rest of the world, then present a fait accompli. No more chips with everything, unless Taipei accepts Beijing rule. I reckon the West would fold rather than go to nuclear war over Taiwan. And then, without the west, Taiwan would reluctantly surrender. Xi gets his prize, China is unified, not a shot is fired, as with Hong Kong
    Implementing and maintaining a blockade are 2 different things. Taiwan is not Ukraine, it already has modern military equipment, including a large amount of anti ship missiles which have a range of 250 miles. As well as an actual submarine fleet.
    China would also need to gain aerial supremacy which will be very difficult as they only have 2 operational aircraft carriers currently. China could implement a blockade but they would find it very very difficult to maintain, and that's before any intervention from the rest of the world.
    The rest of the world, certainly the West and India, would also impose economic sanctions on China like the West has on Russia
    We are dependent upon Russia for certain commodities which we can source elsewhere, but at a cost because, well they are commodities, so if there is a shortage everyone's price goes up even if you have an alternative source.

    However China supplies so much more other stuff which we can't source elsewhere. It isn't just price dependency in the short term, it is more than that. In other words we are stuffed without China.
    And China is also stuffed if it cannot export to us.

    What is clear is if Taiwan is invaded by China and blockaded so we can't even send arms in, the choice would be either economic sanctions of some form or World War 3
    Re China being stuffed as well, I agree, but the same goes for Russia and look what they did.

    Re the options I agree although add that we might do nothing and I certainly have no idea what of those 3 it will be.

    The obvious answer is China will be mad to do anything, particularly after the Ukrainian fiasco, but who knows.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Mad Nad will presumably only accept a peerage if she is accepting that her cabinet career is over. Whilst this is something for all sane Conservatives to devoutly pray for I would not be so confident. She has been pretty chummy with Truss of late.

    Mogg wants to be a "Knight Commander" apparently. You can combine that with continuing to serve the public as an MP.
    Mogg will likely be in Truss' cabinet alongside Braverman, Kwarteng, Cleverly, Lewis, Coffey, Baker, Redwood etc. Maybe even Francois
    Have the upper echelons just stopped caring what the rest of the public think?

    "We're going to lose in 2024/5, so let's have some fun in the meantime"?
    What credentials does Kwazy Kwoissant have, apart from supporting Cheezy (and I think allegedly having an affair with her in the past)?
    Rudd-y hell! I think you may have that wrong! Amber light spells danger.
    Apologies to Liz and Kwazy their, I misread. I withdraw it unreservedly
    There are either or situations

    And there are both and situations
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,543
    I use powerlines to provide wifi accross my house.

    https://www.tp-link.com/uk/home-networking/powerline/

    Is this now out of date as meshes provide a better solution?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,790
    Another detailed rebuttal of the Amnesty report.

    What is wrong with Amnesty International’s Conclusions that "Ukrainian fighting tactics endanger civilians"
    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/columns/2022/08/5/7362086/
    ...In sum, AI’s conclusions are short on facts and analysis and long on intemperate accusation. AI appears not to have concerned itself with the most salient questions. If it had, the authors of the Press-Release would, at a minimum, have sought to reconstruct the military activity at the time and focused upon any efforts made by the Ukrainian military active at the time to defend the locations and the beleaguered civilian population...
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,217

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Mad Nad will presumably only accept a peerage if she is accepting that her cabinet career is over. Whilst this is something for all sane Conservatives to devoutly pray for I would not be so confident. She has been pretty chummy with Truss of late.

    Mogg wants to be a "Knight Commander" apparently. You can combine that with continuing to serve the public as an MP.
    Mogg will likely be in Truss' cabinet alongside Braverman, Kwarteng, Cleverly, Lewis, Coffey, Baker, Redwood etc. Maybe even Francois
    Have the upper echelons just stopped caring what the rest of the public think?

    "We're going to lose in 2024/5, so let's have some fun in the meantime"?
    What credentials does Kwazy Kwoissant have, apart from supporting Cheezy (and I think allegedly having an affair with her in the past)?
    I think he has a lovely voice for radio. Would definitely have him read the shipping forecast.

    More seriously, he contributed to Britannia Unchained with Liz Truss so, insofar as she has an ideology, Kwarteng shares it, and they could therefore be expected to form a cohesive core to the government.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,790

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Mad Nad will presumably only accept a peerage if she is accepting that her cabinet career is over. Whilst this is something for all sane Conservatives to devoutly pray for I would not be so confident. She has been pretty chummy with Truss of late.

    Mogg wants to be a "Knight Commander" apparently. You can combine that with continuing to serve the public as an MP.
    Mogg will likely be in Truss' cabinet alongside Braverman, Kwarteng, Cleverly, Lewis, Coffey, Baker, Redwood etc. Maybe even Francois
    Wow, a who's who of Westminster talent.
    More accurately, a what the fuck.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Leon said:

    Dynamo said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This sounds eerily like Ukraine in Feb of this year. Let’s hope not


    “Taiwan is preparing air-raid shelters in underground spaces such as basement car parks, the subway system and subterranean shopping centres as fears of a Chinese attack increase. The capital, Taipei, has more than 4,600 such shelters that can accommodate 12 million people, more than four times its population. Reporting by Yimou Lee and Fabian Hamacher/Reuters
    Ann Wang / Reuters”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2022/aug/08/taiwan-prepares-for-life-underground-amid-china-threat-in-pictures

    They do this whenever China start to sabre rattle, just in case China is stupid enough to attempt an invasion. It's good future planning and is also good as a drill if as most likely China soon says the military exercise was a great success and go home.

    China know their ability to invade Taiwan is at best very poor, in reality they could maybe hope in taking the islands near the Chinese coast. Mind you were live in times of dictators massively over estimating the ability of their militaries.
    They will blockade, not attack

    China can cut Taiwan off from the rest of the world, then present a fait accompli. No more chips with everything, unless Taipei accepts Beijing rule. I reckon the West would fold rather than go to nuclear war over Taiwan. And then, without the west, Taiwan would reluctantly surrender. Xi gets his prize, China is unified, not a shot is fired, as with Hong Kong
    Implementing and maintaining a blockade are 2 different things. Taiwan is not Ukraine, it already has modern military equipment, including a large amount of anti ship missiles which have a range of 250 miles. As well as an actual submarine fleet.
    China would also need to gain aerial supremacy which will be very difficult as they only have 2 operational aircraft carriers currently. China could implement a blockade but they would find it very very difficult to maintain, and that's before any intervention from the rest of the world.
    The rest of the world, certainly the West and India, would also impose economic sanctions on China like the West has on Russia
    Yes, trade war has two sides. Prices of semiconductors would rocket - and probably of new clothes too, just to take one example, assuming there were still some new clothes on the market and not too much of the electronic hardware involved in distibuting them wasn't needing too much maintenance. There's no way conditions as most people know them in the West would continue in the event of a renewed outbreak of the Chinese civil war with the US piling in on one side.
    It’s just occurred to me: if Taiwan is blockaded, stopping the export of chips, then much hi tech western weaponry would cease to function. Assisting Russia?

    However the same problem would apply to Chinese weapons….
    Military chips are ancient and over specced. I imagine they will be USA sourced as part of the contract.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,011
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This sounds eerily like Ukraine in Feb of this year. Let’s hope not


    “Taiwan is preparing air-raid shelters in underground spaces such as basement car parks, the subway system and subterranean shopping centres as fears of a Chinese attack increase. The capital, Taipei, has more than 4,600 such shelters that can accommodate 12 million people, more than four times its population. Reporting by Yimou Lee and Fabian Hamacher/Reuters
    Ann Wang / Reuters”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2022/aug/08/taiwan-prepares-for-life-underground-amid-china-threat-in-pictures

    They do this whenever China start to sabre rattle, just in case China is stupid enough to attempt an invasion. It's good future planning and is also good as a drill if as most likely China soon says the military exercise was a great success and go home.

    China know their ability to invade Taiwan is at best very poor, in reality they could maybe hope in taking the islands near the Chinese coast. Mind you were live in times of dictators massively over estimating the ability of their militaries.
    They will blockade, not attack

    China can cut Taiwan off from the rest of the world, then present a fait accompli. No more chips with everything, unless Taipei accepts Beijing rule. I reckon the West would fold rather than go to nuclear war over Taiwan. And then, without the west, Taiwan would reluctantly surrender. Xi gets his prize, China is unified, not a shot is fired, as with Hong Kong
    If Ukraine can break the Russian naval blockade by sinking a few ships with Western donated missiles then I'm struggling to see how the Chinese Navy will enforce a blockade of Taiwan.
    Because the Chinese navy is the biggest in the world, supported by a huge airforce and missile capability, and Taiwan is right offshore of China?
    On paper the Russian naval advantage over Ukraine was much, much bigger than China's naval advantage, if any, over Taiwan and a couple of US carrier groups.
    China has the biggest navy in the world, and a huge proportion of it is concentrated in and around the S China Sea


    https://news.usni.org/2021/11/03/china-has-worlds-largest-navy-with-355-ships-and-counting-says-pentagon

    The US navy, which is smaller (but more high tech) is scattered across the globe
    True, but invasion by sea is regarded as one of the most challenging forms of invasion. The Chinese are just sabre rattling.
    They will blockade, not invade, if they do anything

    A cold American appraisal

    ‘while most American politicians have yet to recognize it, the military balance in the Taiwan Strait has been transformed in the quarter century since the last Taiwan crisis. The local balance of power has shifted decisively in China’s favor. As I explained in an article published here last year, the United States could lose a war over Taiwan. Indeed, as former Deputy Secretary of Defense Robert Work has stated publicly, in the Pentagon’s most realistic simulations and sensitive war games, in conflicts limited to Taiwan, the score is eighteen to zero, and the eighteen is not Team USA.’

    https://nationalinterest.org/feature/taiwan-thucydides-and-us-china-war-204060
    I wonder where Ricki Lane Who You Adore stands on China?

    Hawkish, I'm betting. Be taking no shit whatsoever from that direction.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Mad Nad will presumably only accept a peerage if she is accepting that her cabinet career is over. Whilst this is something for all sane Conservatives to devoutly pray for I would not be so confident. She has been pretty chummy with Truss of late.

    Mogg wants to be a "Knight Commander" apparently. You can combine that with continuing to serve the public as an MP.
    Mogg will likely be in Truss' cabinet alongside Braverman, Kwarteng, Cleverly, Lewis, Coffey, Baker, Redwood etc. Maybe even Francois
    Ah, a Cabinet of none of the talents.
    Yea, but that way Lightweight Lizzy can still view herself as First Among (very mediocre) Equals.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited August 2022

    I use powerlines to provide wifi accross my house.

    https://www.tp-link.com/uk/home-networking/powerline/

    Is this now out of date as meshes provide a better solution?

    Depends. Powerline is probably technically faster than Wi-Fi because Wi-Fi is so variable depending on things like house construction, other routers, microwaves etc. Wi-Fi can reach technically higher speeds than powerline from memory.

    Worth saying also that most "mesh" systems will have the bandwidth because they send on the same channel they receive on. Some of the higher end ones avoid this problem with triple bands but you need to ensure they use a dedicated band for the backhaul otherwise you'll halve the bandwidth as I said.

    I personally use Plume, not sure if it's available to buy or not. I hear good things about Eero.
  • There really are no depths that Boris Johnson will not descend to in making our country and constitution a laughing stock. Nadine Dorries, a peer of the Realm. The man is a cretin.

    And speaking of cretins, Daniel Johnson wants us to all believe that Boris Johnson didn't think he was lying when he told the HoCs that he was not aware of parties. What an idiot. : https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/daniel-johnson-boris-johnson-has-done-nothing-to-warrant-this-shameful-stitch-up/ar-AA10pXGT?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=37844e3b4ee4417083cefc44fc5f72fe

    Bumping useless cretins "upstairs" has long been a feature of our system.

    If Boris's final action is to get Dorries out of the Commons and "upstairs" then that would be a step in the direction.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289
    HYUFD said:

    There really are no depths that Boris Johnson will not descend to in making our country and constitution a laughing stock. Nadine Dorries, a peer of the Realm. The man is a cretin.

    And speaking of cretins, Daniel Johnson wants us to all believe that Boris Johnson didn't think he was lying when he told the HoCs that he was not aware of parties. What an idiot. : https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/daniel-johnson-boris-johnson-has-done-nothing-to-warrant-this-shameful-stitch-up/ar-AA10pXGT?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=37844e3b4ee4417083cefc44fc5f72fe

    The mere existence of Operation Save Big Dog from the Privileges Committee's inquiry into whether Boris lied about partygate (not the catchiest title) should imo be taken to indicate the Prime Minister does intend to remain an MP so he can be recalled to rescue the party in a year or two.
    He would need enough MPs to support him. Rees Mogg and Nadine and a handful of the very thickest of the ERG will not make the numbers. He is a very busted flush, thank God.
    He's busted with the wider public, sure. But with what's left of the Conservative party?

    Let's suppose Truss blows up in a year, as well she might. The temptation to go back to Boris would be immense.
    The polling also shows both 2019 Tory voters and Tory members prefer Boris to both Truss and Sunak
    There was a time in the past when the Tory Party was the rational party. That has long gone. Bunch of swivel-eyed boneheads.
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This sounds eerily like Ukraine in Feb of this year. Let’s hope not


    “Taiwan is preparing air-raid shelters in underground spaces such as basement car parks, the subway system and subterranean shopping centres as fears of a Chinese attack increase. The capital, Taipei, has more than 4,600 such shelters that can accommodate 12 million people, more than four times its population. Reporting by Yimou Lee and Fabian Hamacher/Reuters
    Ann Wang / Reuters”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2022/aug/08/taiwan-prepares-for-life-underground-amid-china-threat-in-pictures

    They do this whenever China start to sabre rattle, just in case China is stupid enough to attempt an invasion. It's good future planning and is also good as a drill if as most likely China soon says the military exercise was a great success and go home.

    China know their ability to invade Taiwan is at best very poor, in reality they could maybe hope in taking the islands near the Chinese coast. Mind you were live in times of dictators massively over estimating the ability of their militaries.
    They will blockade, not attack

    China can cut Taiwan off from the rest of the world, then present a fait accompli. No more chips with everything, unless Taipei accepts Beijing rule. I reckon the West would fold rather than go to nuclear war over Taiwan. And then, without the west, Taiwan would reluctantly surrender. Xi gets his prize, China is unified, not a shot is fired, as with Hong Kong
    Sorry but Hong Kong provides no historical precedent. Hong Kong was handed back as the lease was ended. No shots were fired because the UK stuck to it's international agreement. It used to do that back then.
    The lease only ended on a portion of Hong Kong, technically.

    Another portion of Hong Kong had been ceded to us in perpetuity, but it was handed back with the leased portion.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,790
    The Turkish company Baykar has already purchased a plot of land in Ukraine for the construction of a factory that will produce Bayraktar combat drones, announced the Ambassador of Ukraine to Turkey, Vasyl Bodnar, in an interview with RBC-Ukraine.
    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1556592566900072449
  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651
    edited August 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This sounds eerily like Ukraine in Feb of this year. Let’s hope not


    “Taiwan is preparing air-raid shelters in underground spaces such as basement car parks, the subway system and subterranean shopping centres as fears of a Chinese attack increase. The capital, Taipei, has more than 4,600 such shelters that can accommodate 12 million people, more than four times its population. Reporting by Yimou Lee and Fabian Hamacher/Reuters
    Ann Wang / Reuters”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2022/aug/08/taiwan-prepares-for-life-underground-amid-china-threat-in-pictures

    They do this whenever China start to sabre rattle, just in case China is stupid enough to attempt an invasion. It's good future planning and is also good as a drill if as most likely China soon says the military exercise was a great success and go home.

    China know their ability to invade Taiwan is at best very poor, in reality they could maybe hope in taking the islands near the Chinese coast. Mind you were live in times of dictators massively over estimating the ability of their militaries.
    They will blockade, not attack

    China can cut Taiwan off from the rest of the world, then present a fait accompli. No more chips with everything, unless Taipei accepts Beijing rule. I reckon the West would fold rather than go to nuclear war over Taiwan. And then, without the west, Taiwan would reluctantly surrender. Xi gets his prize, China is unified, not a shot is fired, as with Hong Kong
    Taiwan is a highly developed state, it could survive on its own.

    Like Ukraine its residents would also fight to the death rather than accept Beijing rule
    @HYUFD - Which out of the PRC and the ROC do you think has the stronger fifth column in the other guy's circles?

    This is quite aside from what you say about Ukraine, in which I take it you include for some reason the territories that declared separation in 2014, being ridiculous - as in fact it would be in regard to almost any war. (Very few wars have ended only after one side has killed everyone on the other side.) You say "Beijing rule", but were you aware that the PRC has mooted a two systems arrangement with Taiwan? If they invade, they're not going to say "Here's the plan. Everybody here - the rich, the poor, the local officials, the police, the oligarchs, the old ladies, the babies - they've all got to lick our boots forever. Have you all got that?"
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,326

    There really are no depths that Boris Johnson will not descend to in making our country and constitution a laughing stock. Nadine Dorries, a peer of the Realm. The man is a cretin.

    And speaking of cretins, Daniel Johnson wants us to all believe that Boris Johnson didn't think he was lying when he told the HoCs that he was not aware of parties. What an idiot. : https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/daniel-johnson-boris-johnson-has-done-nothing-to-warrant-this-shameful-stitch-up/ar-AA10pXGT?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=37844e3b4ee4417083cefc44fc5f72fe

    Bumping useless cretins "upstairs" has long been a feature of our system.

    If Boris's final action is to get Dorries out of the Commons and "upstairs" then that would be a step in the direction.
    Talk of Boris "bumping (a woman) upstairs" could easily be misinterpreted, I'd suggest.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,172
    edited August 2022

    I use powerlines to provide wifi accross my house.

    https://www.tp-link.com/uk/home-networking/powerline/

    Is this now out of date as meshes provide a better solution?

    Sadly yes - they can only go so fast.

    We went from - powerlines / homeplugs via BT whole home wifi, to a fancy Netgear business system.

    But the reality is wifi has surpassed what homeplugs can do and it's now just a matter of waiting for the very expensive Wifi 6 and Wifi 6e systems to fall in price.

    Edit to add - and you do want one with a dedicated backhaul service - either cabled or as @CorrectHorseBattery points out a dedicated band that doesn't piggyback on the bands any connected devices are using...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,270
    HYUFD said:

    There really are no depths that Boris Johnson will not descend to in making our country and constitution a laughing stock. Nadine Dorries, a peer of the Realm. The man is a cretin.

    And speaking of cretins, Daniel Johnson wants us to all believe that Boris Johnson didn't think he was lying when he told the HoCs that he was not aware of parties. What an idiot. : https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/daniel-johnson-boris-johnson-has-done-nothing-to-warrant-this-shameful-stitch-up/ar-AA10pXGT?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=37844e3b4ee4417083cefc44fc5f72fe

    The mere existence of Operation Save Big Dog from the Privileges Committee's inquiry into whether Boris lied about partygate (not the catchiest title) should imo be taken to indicate the Prime Minister does intend to remain an MP so he can be recalled to rescue the party in a year or two.
    He would need enough MPs to support him. Rees Mogg and Nadine and a handful of the very thickest of the ERG will not make the numbers. He is a very busted flush, thank God.
    He's busted with the wider public, sure. But with what's left of the Conservative party?

    Let's suppose Truss blows up in a year, as well she might. The temptation to go back to Boris would be immense.
    The polling also shows both 2019 Tory voters and Tory members prefer Boris to both Truss and Sunak
    What a shame he threw his political career away as a result of his bone-idle fecklessness, lies, low level corruption and, the icing on the cake, as a significant security risk who as Foreign Secretary was unaware if he did, or did not, spill the beans on UK security to a KGB Officer.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,217

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    China announces fresh military drills around Taiwan

    https://twitter.com/reuterschina/status/1556536151615217665

    This looks really quite ominous, now

    If you are Xi, attacking/blockading Taiwan this autumn - as the West is severely weakened by Ukraine/energy, makes a lot of sense. The blithering Biden is in the White House. The Pentagon is enfeebled by lack of confidence, post Afghanistan. Taiwan is still isolated by Covid

    It might indeed have been coordinated with Putin
    Very generous of Putin to destroy his army, in order to make life easier for China.

    A sensible Russian leader would recognise the vulnerability of Eastern Siberia to Chinese revanchism.

    IMHO, an invasion of Taiwan would be a fiasco for China, although the drawback of dictatorships is that military leaders aren't allowed to tell the dictator he's making a bad mistake.
    Putin is doing OK in Ukraine, despite enormous losses. All Xi will care about is that Putin’s invasion has got the West rattled, and facing recession, and therefore badly weakened. Was it all coordinated? Planned? Russia attacks in spring, China moves in autumn? Perhaps

    Also, Xi does not have to invade Taiwan, he can blockade it

    ‘Seoul, South Korea (CNN)China's military exercises show Beijing doesn't need to invade Taiwan to control it -- rather it can strangle the self-ruled island, cutting it off from the outside world, Chinese and American analysts say.’

    https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/08/asia/china-taiwan-military-exercises-what-we-learned-intl-hnk-ml/index.html
    Putin has destroyed forever, the notion that Russia is the second strongest military power in the world.

    An attack on Taiwan would certainly do the West a lot of harm. It would do China more harm, however. The Russian and Chinese leaderships doubtless believe that their opponents are so soft and decadent that they'll collapse.

    Dictators tend to believe in the "fremen mirage". It's the belief that people ruled by dictators are tougher, more many and martial, than the inhabitants of soft democracies. Actual military history does not bear that out. They mistake vast parades of thousands goose-stepping in perfect unison with military effectiveness/
    Read that CNN article quoting American analysts. China won’t invade it will blockade. It now has enough ships in place it can basically do that already
    This interesting thread from The New Statesman also thinks invasion/war is unlikely.

    https://twitter.com/newstatesman/status/1556537582917492737?s=21&t=VIYOpc6Zclcu2hia_LCGgg
    I found that thread quite persuasive.

    The crucial point, for me, is that Chinese policy-making, both domestic and foreign policy, is often strategic and long=term - they're pretty patient, and usually won't be rushed into hasty decisions - unless forced. This is for obvious reasons, that aren't so good - they don't need to worry too much about what the citizens think. But the contrast with the short-termism of Western democracies, whose leaders always think about the election cycle of the next few years rather than the next 50 years, is pretty stark.
    The threat here is that long-term focused Chinese politicians will see the demographic trends in China, and will know that their power is set to start declining. So they may believe that they have a window of opportunity to use their power to make gains. This introduces a time pressure to act.

    https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20220531-why-chinas-population-is-shrinking
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,622

    I use powerlines to provide wifi accross my house.

    https://www.tp-link.com/uk/home-networking/powerline/

    Is this now out of date as meshes provide a better solution?

    Yes, probably do now. Although powerline networking is a nasty thing in any case. Radio interference...

    Mind you, not as much RFI as Chinese tat transformers in LED lighting it would seem.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    edited August 2022

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Mad Nad will presumably only accept a peerage if she is accepting that her cabinet career is over. Whilst this is something for all sane Conservatives to devoutly pray for I would not be so confident. She has been pretty chummy with Truss of late.

    Mogg wants to be a "Knight Commander" apparently. You can combine that with continuing to serve the public as an MP.
    Mogg will likely be in Truss' cabinet alongside Braverman, Kwarteng, Cleverly, Lewis, Coffey, Baker, Redwood etc. Maybe even Francois
    Ah, a Cabinet of none of the talents.
    Truss' Cabinet will likely be the most rightwing Tory Cabinet or Shadow Cabinet since IDS was leader. Most Tory moderates will refuse to serve in it and Truss will offer barely any senior posts to Sunak supporters
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,790
    edited August 2022
    Mad Nad... (quite possibly in contempt of Parliament, and therefore utterly unsuitable to be appointed to the Lords.)

    https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1556182172016467969
    If this witch hunt continues, it will be the most egregious abuse of power witnessed in Westminster. It will cast serious doubt not only on the reputation of individual MPs sitting on the committee, but on the processes of Parliament and democracy itself

    https://twitter.com/GavinBarwell/status/1556536675139977217
    A reminder that @NadineDorries supported (or at least didn't vote against) referring this matter to the Privileges Committee on 21 April. She is now trying to publicly pressure the MPs on the committee not to do the job she - and the entire House - asked them to do

    https://twitter.com/LordRennard/status/1556581239947202561
    This inquiry is so “rigged” that no Conservative MP, opposed setting it up, @RhonddaBryant recused himself as Chair, and it has a majority of Conservative MPs. Never before has such an inquiry been stopped. Boris Johnson’s friends are fearful of the facts
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    Dynamo said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This sounds eerily like Ukraine in Feb of this year. Let’s hope not


    “Taiwan is preparing air-raid shelters in underground spaces such as basement car parks, the subway system and subterranean shopping centres as fears of a Chinese attack increase. The capital, Taipei, has more than 4,600 such shelters that can accommodate 12 million people, more than four times its population. Reporting by Yimou Lee and Fabian Hamacher/Reuters
    Ann Wang / Reuters”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2022/aug/08/taiwan-prepares-for-life-underground-amid-china-threat-in-pictures

    They do this whenever China start to sabre rattle, just in case China is stupid enough to attempt an invasion. It's good future planning and is also good as a drill if as most likely China soon says the military exercise was a great success and go home.

    China know their ability to invade Taiwan is at best very poor, in reality they could maybe hope in taking the islands near the Chinese coast. Mind you were live in times of dictators massively over estimating the ability of their militaries.
    They will blockade, not attack

    China can cut Taiwan off from the rest of the world, then present a fait accompli. No more chips with everything, unless Taipei accepts Beijing rule. I reckon the West would fold rather than go to nuclear war over Taiwan. And then, without the west, Taiwan would reluctantly surrender. Xi gets his prize, China is unified, not a shot is fired, as with Hong Kong
    Taiwan is a highly developed state, it could survive on its own.

    Like Ukraine its residents would also fight to the death rather than accept Beijing rule
    @HYUFD - Which out of the PRC and the ROC do you think has the stronger fifth column in the other guy's circles?

    This is quite aside from what you say about Ukraine, in which I take it you include for some reason the territories that declared separation in 2014, being ridiculous - as in fact it would be in regard to almost any war. (Very few wars have ended only after one side has killed everyone on the other side.) You say "Beijing rule", but were you aware that the PRC has mooted a two systems arrangement with Taiwan? If they invade, they're not going to say "Here's the plan. Everybody here - the rich, the poor, the local officials, the police, the oligarchs, the old ladies, the babies - they've all got to lick our boots forever. Have you all got that?"
    The two systems proposal would last as long as it did in Hong Kong before Beijing asserted its authority
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,661
    Late to the music debate... In the late 90s and early 00s I used to get music tips from a column by one James Delingpole in the Telegraph. With hindsight few of them were long term favourites - or, fundamentally, that good - but I enjoyed them at the time. Still, I was a little surprised when he popped up on TV a few years later and I discovered he was (to my eyes*) a swivel eyed loon :open_mouth:

    *with one eye on the libel laws, definitely not saying he is a swivel eyed loon, not at all, just that in my opinion he looked like one :wink:
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,306
    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Oh go on @Scott_P, educate me.

    Look at it this way.

    How much of the kit you bought in the 90's would still be part of your system today (notwithstanding the voltage issues) ?
    Richer Sounds always did decent kit, and it lasts well. My Marantz amp from there must be 25 years old.

    There is good new music now, despite what grandpa Leon was saying last night while showing his slides. I am a fan of Molchat Doma for example.

    https://youtu.be/s1ATTIQrmIQ
    I’m not just emotionally and artistically correct, I can scientifically prove I’m correct. Music is decreasing in complexity and variety, songs are more formulaic, lyrics are more repetitive and mundane. Music is getting worse

    https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/is-pop-music-evolving-or-is-it-just-getting-louder/


    https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/science-proves-pop-music-has-actually-gotten-worse-8173368/

    https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.04292.pdf

    https://www.mic.com/articles/107896/scientists-finally-prove-why-pop-music-all-sounds-the-same


    https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0115255
    You old git.

    On my playlist:

    Mazzy Star
    Quantic
    Tash Sultana
    DJariium
    Husky Loops
    Paul Hartnoll
    Finley Quaye
    Young Fathers
    Dave Thomas Junior
    Light Asylum
    Nitin Sawhney
    Elbow
    Unkle
    Kerli
    Wankelmut
    Leftfield
    X Ambassadors
    Silver Mt Zion
    FKA Twigs
    Covenant
    Shawn Lee's Ping Pong Orchestra
    The Allergies
    Michel Kiwanuka
    Dennis Lloyd
    Robert Levon Been
    Maribou State
    The Cinematic Orchestra
    Molotov Jukebox

    Something there for everything. You might think you recognise some of it/it's derivative of course you might but then welcome to pop music for the past 70 years.

    And that's to exclude the superstars - eg Kanye, Rihanna, Adele, Lizzo, etc, or, say, Grime.

    You need to get out more, take the Chris de Burgh tape off loop and start shazaming your way to find some new music.
    I think I'm potentially a little younger than you, and I don't really see the point in listening to current music. At the moment I am mostly listening to Sade.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289

    Opinium

    LAB 37
    CON 34

    Best PM Truss leads SKS

    I am at a loss can any SKS fans please explain

    Starmer is a complete dud. Appallingly poor.
    Ahh that would explain it.

    SKS fans do not concur (yet)
    Hey old chap, hope you are well.

    Who should replace KS and why would they be doing better? I would like polling evidence to support your conclusion
    We have to assume that BJO would like to see the return of that crowd pleaser and (non) winner of elections and Putin apologist extraordinaire, the man affectionately known to PBers as Magic Grandpa or Mr. Thicky.

    Corbyn thinks we shouldn't be arming the Ukrainians because it is prolonging the conflict. Which of course is probably true, because if we didn't Putin would have quickly won, which perhaps Jezza would be pleased about.

    Why is Corbyn a sympathiser for a militaristic imperialist and murderer, Vladimir Putin? Corbyn fan please explain?
  • Non-dedicated backhaul can work, I think Plume doesn't have a dedicated band and does some algorithmic stuff, I just think if you can get dedicated backhaul do as you'll in general get better performance.

    Next to the main "pod" as it is called, I get my full 500 down and 70 up, on another Pod a couple of rooms over connected via 5GHz, I can get around 250, so it looks like it is cutting the bandwidth in half.

    What I like about Plume is that the Pods are little things that plug into the wall, as opposed to needing a table etc
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,790
    Nigelb said:

    Russians laid mines in NPP in Enerhodar, threatening to blow it up.

    "Here will be either Russian land or a desert. The nuclear power plant will be either Russian or no one's," commander of the garrison Valeriy Vasiliev said in a statement later deleted

    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1556594872202715139

    This is madder than Nad.
    1/2 After #Ruzzians mined #Zaporizhzhya NPP, the chief of the Russian Federation's radiation, chemical and biological defence forces told his thugs that the plant should belong to #Russia or to nobody. "And if there is the toughest order - we must fulfil it with honour," he said...
    https://twitter.com/IKlympush/status/1556595110468624385
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289

    There really are no depths that Boris Johnson will not descend to in making our country and constitution a laughing stock. Nadine Dorries, a peer of the Realm. The man is a cretin.

    And speaking of cretins, Daniel Johnson wants us to all believe that Boris Johnson didn't think he was lying when he told the HoCs that he was not aware of parties. What an idiot. : https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/daniel-johnson-boris-johnson-has-done-nothing-to-warrant-this-shameful-stitch-up/ar-AA10pXGT?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=37844e3b4ee4417083cefc44fc5f72fe

    Bumping useless cretins "upstairs" has long been a feature of our system.

    If Boris's final action is to get Dorries out of the Commons and "upstairs" then that would be a step in the direction.
    Talk of Boris "bumping (a woman) upstairs" could easily be misinterpreted, I'd suggest.
    Boris might well prefer to bump Nadine via "the backdoor".
  • Basically Wi-Fi to me always seems like a technology that is almost very good but always falls slightly short.

    Ethernet remains the king.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,891
    edited August 2022
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Mad Nad will presumably only accept a peerage if she is accepting that her cabinet career is over. Whilst this is something for all sane Conservatives to devoutly pray for I would not be so confident. She has been pretty chummy with Truss of late.

    Mogg wants to be a "Knight Commander" apparently. You can combine that with continuing to serve the public as an MP.
    Mogg will likely be in Truss' cabinet alongside Braverman, Kwarteng, Cleverly, Lewis, Coffey, Baker, Redwood etc. Maybe even Francois
    Ah, a Cabinet of none of the talents.
    Truss' Cabinet will likely be the most rightwing Tory Cabinet or Shadow Cabinet since IDS was leader. Most Tory moderates will refuse to serve in it and Truss will offer barely any senior posts to Sunak supporters
    And yet you voted for Rishi as you thought Truss was too much of a Liberal? 🤔

    I expect you'll be disappointed if you're expecting hard right policies from Truss. For one thing the cost of living crisis that the war is causing means many people are demanding leftwing policies, even many Tories are demanding more interventionism.

    Plus Truss will seek to unite the party after the election just as almost all new leaders do (Boris himself being an exception as ending May's paralysis on Europe in 2019 meant taking a firm stance, a situation that no longer exists).

    It wouldn't surprise me if Hunt is offered a more senior post than either Mogg or Dorries, although Hunt may not want to give up the Chairmanship of the Health Select Committee a position he's very well suited towards.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,240
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Mad Nad will presumably only accept a peerage if she is accepting that her cabinet career is over. Whilst this is something for all sane Conservatives to devoutly pray for I would not be so confident. She has been pretty chummy with Truss of late.

    Mogg wants to be a "Knight Commander" apparently. You can combine that with continuing to serve the public as an MP.
    Mogg will likely be in Truss' cabinet alongside Braverman, Kwarteng, Cleverly, Lewis, Coffey, Baker, Redwood etc. Maybe even Francois
    God help us all.
    A sadistic post indeed from H there. But beautifully constructed.

    Starts with a vicious slap, "Braverman", allows some respite with a few names of just medium horror, then amps up the pain again with "Coffey" and "Baker", before inflicting the almost unbearable "Redwood" and that terrible "etc".

    Then, just as the screams are subsiding, the final moment of pure gratuitous cruelty -

    "Maybe even Francois"
    You say Francois, I raise you Fabricant, Rosindell, and Bridgen.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,622
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This sounds eerily like Ukraine in Feb of this year. Let’s hope not


    “Taiwan is preparing air-raid shelters in underground spaces such as basement car parks, the subway system and subterranean shopping centres as fears of a Chinese attack increase. The capital, Taipei, has more than 4,600 such shelters that can accommodate 12 million people, more than four times its population. Reporting by Yimou Lee and Fabian Hamacher/Reuters
    Ann Wang / Reuters”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2022/aug/08/taiwan-prepares-for-life-underground-amid-china-threat-in-pictures

    They do this whenever China start to sabre rattle, just in case China is stupid enough to attempt an invasion. It's good future planning and is also good as a drill if as most likely China soon says the military exercise was a great success and go home.

    China know their ability to invade Taiwan is at best very poor, in reality they could maybe hope in taking the islands near the Chinese coast. Mind you were live in times of dictators massively over estimating the ability of their militaries.
    They will blockade, not attack

    China can cut Taiwan off from the rest of the world, then present a fait accompli. No more chips with everything, unless Taipei accepts Beijing rule. I reckon the West would fold rather than go to nuclear war over Taiwan. And then, without the west, Taiwan would reluctantly surrender. Xi gets his prize, China is unified, not a shot is fired, as with Hong Kong
    If Ukraine can break the Russian naval blockade by sinking a few ships with Western donated missiles then I'm struggling to see how the Chinese Navy will enforce a blockade of Taiwan.
    Because the Chinese navy is the biggest in the world, supported by a huge airforce and missile capability, and Taiwan is right offshore of China?
    In 2014 the tonnage of the US navy was approximately 5x that of China, roughly 7m tonnes to 35m. The gap will have closed a bit since then but the US still has 11 aircraft carriers (plus 10 helicopter carriers) to China's 2. The Chinese are absolutely nowhere near the US in naval power. A commitment by the US to conventional support for Taiwan makes an invasion an impossibility.
    We've seen in Ukraine how tanks are pretty useless against current weapons.

    Ships of any tonnage are likely to be the same if in range of land.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,306
    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Mad Nad will presumably only accept a peerage if she is accepting that her cabinet career is over. Whilst this is something for all sane Conservatives to devoutly pray for I would not be so confident. She has been pretty chummy with Truss of late.

    Mogg wants to be a "Knight Commander" apparently. You can combine that with continuing to serve the public as an MP.
    Mogg will likely be in Truss' cabinet alongside Braverman, Kwarteng, Cleverly, Lewis, Coffey, Baker, Redwood etc. Maybe even Francois
    Have the upper echelons just stopped caring what the rest of the public think?

    "We're going to lose in 2024/5, so let's have some fun in the meantime"?
    What credentials does Kwazy Kwoissant have, apart from supporting Cheezy (and I think allegedly having an affair with her in the past)?
    Rudd-y hell! I think you may have that wrong! Amber light spells danger.
    Apologies to Liz and Kwazy their, I misread. I withdraw it unreservedly
    There are either or situations

    And there are both and situations
    Wow, he gets all the hot chicks. ALLEDGEDLY.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    edited August 2022
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Mad Nad will presumably only accept a peerage if she is accepting that her cabinet career is over. Whilst this is something for all sane Conservatives to devoutly pray for I would not be so confident. She has been pretty chummy with Truss of late.

    Mogg wants to be a "Knight Commander" apparently. You can combine that with continuing to serve the public as an MP.
    Mogg will likely be in Truss' cabinet alongside Braverman, Kwarteng, Cleverly, Lewis, Coffey, Baker, Redwood etc. Maybe even Francois
    God help us all.
    A sadistic post indeed from H there. But beautifully constructed.

    Starts with a vicious slap, "Braverman", allows some respite with a few names of just medium horror, then amps up the pain again with "Coffey" and "Baker", before inflicting the almost unbearable "Redwood" and that terrible "etc".

    Then, just as the screams are subsiding, the final moment of pure gratuitous cruelty -

    "Maybe even Francois"
    Bill Cash as Attorney General as icing on the cake? Last time he was a Tory frontbencher was under IDS and he has backed Truss for leader.

    Indeed IDS may get a job too
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,246

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This sounds eerily like Ukraine in Feb of this year. Let’s hope not


    “Taiwan is preparing air-raid shelters in underground spaces such as basement car parks, the subway system and subterranean shopping centres as fears of a Chinese attack increase. The capital, Taipei, has more than 4,600 such shelters that can accommodate 12 million people, more than four times its population. Reporting by Yimou Lee and Fabian Hamacher/Reuters
    Ann Wang / Reuters”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2022/aug/08/taiwan-prepares-for-life-underground-amid-china-threat-in-pictures

    They do this whenever China start to sabre rattle, just in case China is stupid enough to attempt an invasion. It's good future planning and is also good as a drill if as most likely China soon says the military exercise was a great success and go home.

    China know their ability to invade Taiwan is at best very poor, in reality they could maybe hope in taking the islands near the Chinese coast. Mind you were live in times of dictators massively over estimating the ability of their militaries.
    They will blockade, not attack

    China can cut Taiwan off from the rest of the world, then present a fait accompli. No more chips with everything, unless Taipei accepts Beijing rule. I reckon the West would fold rather than go to nuclear war over Taiwan. And then, without the west, Taiwan would reluctantly surrender. Xi gets his prize, China is unified, not a shot is fired, as with Hong Kong
    If Ukraine can break the Russian naval blockade by sinking a few ships with Western donated missiles then I'm struggling to see how the Chinese Navy will enforce a blockade of Taiwan.
    Because the Chinese navy is the biggest in the world, supported by a huge airforce and missile capability, and Taiwan is right offshore of China?
    In 2014 the tonnage of the US navy was approximately 5x that of China, roughly 7m tonnes to 35m. The gap will have closed a bit since then but the US still has 11 aircraft carriers (plus 10 helicopter carriers) to China's 2. The Chinese are absolutely nowhere near the US in naval power. A commitment by the US to conventional support for Taiwan makes an invasion an impossibility.
    We've seen in Ukraine how tanks are pretty useless against current weapons.

    Ships of any tonnage are likely to be the same if in range of land.
    Somewhere the Moskva dipped its bows in agreement.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Basically Wi-Fi to me always seems like a technology that is almost very good but always falls slightly short.

    Ethernet remains the king.

    What?

    WiFi is almost flawless. Are you confusing it with Bluetooth?
  • HYUFD said:

    Dynamo said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This sounds eerily like Ukraine in Feb of this year. Let’s hope not


    “Taiwan is preparing air-raid shelters in underground spaces such as basement car parks, the subway system and subterranean shopping centres as fears of a Chinese attack increase. The capital, Taipei, has more than 4,600 such shelters that can accommodate 12 million people, more than four times its population. Reporting by Yimou Lee and Fabian Hamacher/Reuters
    Ann Wang / Reuters”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2022/aug/08/taiwan-prepares-for-life-underground-amid-china-threat-in-pictures

    They do this whenever China start to sabre rattle, just in case China is stupid enough to attempt an invasion. It's good future planning and is also good as a drill if as most likely China soon says the military exercise was a great success and go home.

    China know their ability to invade Taiwan is at best very poor, in reality they could maybe hope in taking the islands near the Chinese coast. Mind you were live in times of dictators massively over estimating the ability of their militaries.
    They will blockade, not attack

    China can cut Taiwan off from the rest of the world, then present a fait accompli. No more chips with everything, unless Taipei accepts Beijing rule. I reckon the West would fold rather than go to nuclear war over Taiwan. And then, without the west, Taiwan would reluctantly surrender. Xi gets his prize, China is unified, not a shot is fired, as with Hong Kong
    Taiwan is a highly developed state, it could survive on its own.

    Like Ukraine its residents would also fight to the death rather than accept Beijing rule
    @HYUFD - Which out of the PRC and the ROC do you think has the stronger fifth column in the other guy's circles?

    This is quite aside from what you say about Ukraine, in which I take it you include for some reason the territories that declared separation in 2014, being ridiculous - as in fact it would be in regard to almost any war. (Very few wars have ended only after one side has killed everyone on the other side.) You say "Beijing rule", but were you aware that the PRC has mooted a two systems arrangement with Taiwan? If they invade, they're not going to say "Here's the plan. Everybody here - the rich, the poor, the local officials, the police, the oligarchs, the old ladies, the babies - they've all got to lick our boots forever. Have you all got that?"
    The two systems proposal would last as long as it did in Hong Kong before Beijing asserted its authority
    Nobody is going to be buying into "one country, two systems" anymore.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,246
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Mad Nad will presumably only accept a peerage if she is accepting that her cabinet career is over. Whilst this is something for all sane Conservatives to devoutly pray for I would not be so confident. She has been pretty chummy with Truss of late.

    Mogg wants to be a "Knight Commander" apparently. You can combine that with continuing to serve the public as an MP.
    Mogg will likely be in Truss' cabinet alongside Braverman, Kwarteng, Cleverly, Lewis, Coffey, Baker, Redwood etc. Maybe even Francois
    God help us all.
    A sadistic post indeed from H there. But beautifully constructed.

    Starts with a vicious slap, "Braverman", allows some respite with a few names of just medium horror, then amps up the pain again with "Coffey" and "Baker", before inflicting the almost unbearable "Redwood" and that terrible "etc".

    Then, just as the screams are subsiding, the final moment of pure gratuitous cruelty -

    "Maybe even Francois"
    Bill Cash as Attorney General as icing on the cake? Last time he was a Tory frontbencher was under IDS and he has backed Truss for leader.

    Indeed IDS may get a job too
    AIUI Bill Cash would not be eligible as he's a solicitor not a member of the bar.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Mad Nad will presumably only accept a peerage if she is accepting that her cabinet career is over. Whilst this is something for all sane Conservatives to devoutly pray for I would not be so confident. She has been pretty chummy with Truss of late.

    Mogg wants to be a "Knight Commander" apparently. You can combine that with continuing to serve the public as an MP.
    Mogg will likely be in Truss' cabinet alongside Braverman, Kwarteng, Cleverly, Lewis, Coffey, Baker, Redwood etc. Maybe even Francois
    Have the upper echelons just stopped caring what the rest of the public think?

    "We're going to lose in 2024/5, so let's have some fun in the meantime"?
    What credentials does Kwazy Kwoissant have, apart from supporting Cheezy (and I think allegedly having an affair with her in the past)?
    Rudd-y hell! I think you may have that wrong! Amber light spells danger.
    Apologies to Liz and Kwazy their, I misread. I withdraw it unreservedly
    If you do a Google image search for 'dodgy MP spreadsheet' and look for the one with fewer redactions, you may find some illumination on that score. Not repeating it here for obvious reasons.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Oh go on @Scott_P, educate me.

    Look at it this way.

    How much of the kit you bought in the 90's would still be part of your system today (notwithstanding the voltage issues) ?
    Richer Sounds always did decent kit, and it lasts well. My Marantz amp from there must be 25 years old.

    There is good new music now, despite what grandpa Leon was saying last night while showing his slides. I am a fan of Molchat Doma for example.

    https://youtu.be/s1ATTIQrmIQ
    I’m not just emotionally and artistically correct, I can scientifically prove I’m correct. Music is decreasing in complexity and variety, songs are more formulaic, lyrics are more repetitive and mundane. Music is getting worse

    https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/is-pop-music-evolving-or-is-it-just-getting-louder/


    https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/science-proves-pop-music-has-actually-gotten-worse-8173368/

    https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.04292.pdf

    https://www.mic.com/articles/107896/scientists-finally-prove-why-pop-music-all-sounds-the-same


    https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0115255
    You old git.

    On my playlist:

    Mazzy Star
    Quantic
    Tash Sultana
    DJariium
    Husky Loops
    Paul Hartnoll
    Finley Quaye
    Young Fathers
    Dave Thomas Junior
    Light Asylum
    Nitin Sawhney
    Elbow
    Unkle
    Kerli
    Wankelmut
    Leftfield
    X Ambassadors
    Silver Mt Zion
    FKA Twigs
    Covenant
    Shawn Lee's Ping Pong Orchestra
    The Allergies
    Michel Kiwanuka
    Dennis Lloyd
    Robert Levon Been
    Maribou State
    The Cinematic Orchestra
    Molotov Jukebox

    Something there for everything. You might think you recognise some of it/it's derivative of course you might but then welcome to pop music for the past 70 years.

    And that's to exclude the superstars - eg Kanye, Rihanna, Adele, Lizzo, etc, or, say, Grime.

    You need to get out more, take the Chris de Burgh tape off loop and start shazaming your way to find some new music.
    I think I'm potentially a little younger than you, and I don't really see the point in listening to current music. At the moment I am mostly listening to Sade.
    Tears for Fears The Hurting is an epic album, amazing songs considering how young they were when they wrote them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Mad Nad will presumably only accept a peerage if she is accepting that her cabinet career is over. Whilst this is something for all sane Conservatives to devoutly pray for I would not be so confident. She has been pretty chummy with Truss of late.

    Mogg wants to be a "Knight Commander" apparently. You can combine that with continuing to serve the public as an MP.
    Mogg will likely be in Truss' cabinet alongside Braverman, Kwarteng, Cleverly, Lewis, Coffey, Baker, Redwood etc. Maybe even Francois
    Ah, a Cabinet of none of the talents.
    Truss' Cabinet will likely be the most rightwing Tory Cabinet or Shadow Cabinet since IDS was leader. Most Tory moderates will refuse to serve in it and Truss will offer barely any senior posts to Sunak supporters
    And yet you voted for Rishi as you thought Truss was too much of a Liberal? 🤔

    I expect you'll be disappointed if you're expecting hard right policies from Truss. For one thing the cost of living crisis that the war is causing means many people are demanding leftwing policies, even many Tories are demanding more interventionism.

    Plus Truss will seek to unite the party after the election just as almost all new leaders do (Boris himself being an exception as ending May's paralysis on Europe in 2019 meant taking a firm stance, a situation that no longer exists).

    It wouldn't surprise me if Hunt is offered a more senior post than either Mogg or Dorries, although Hunt may not want to give up the Chairmanship of the Health Select Committee a position he's very well suited towards.
    Hunt won't be offered a post and wouldn't take one either

    Truss has the lowest percentage of Tory MPs backing her since IDS. The only reason she will win is she dumped her liberal youth and sold her soul to the ERG and the ultra Thatcherite, hard Brexit Tory right and they will want their pound of flesh and top jobs in return
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Mad Nad will presumably only accept a peerage if she is accepting that her cabinet career is over. Whilst this is something for all sane Conservatives to devoutly pray for I would not be so confident. She has been pretty chummy with Truss of late.

    Mogg wants to be a "Knight Commander" apparently. You can combine that with continuing to serve the public as an MP.
    Mogg will likely be in Truss' cabinet alongside Braverman, Kwarteng, Cleverly, Lewis, Coffey, Baker, Redwood etc. Maybe even Francois
    God help us all.
    A sadistic post indeed from H there. But beautifully constructed.

    Starts with a vicious slap, "Braverman", allows some respite with a few names of just medium horror, then amps up the pain again with "Coffey" and "Baker", before inflicting the almost unbearable "Redwood" and that terrible "etc".

    Then, just as the screams are subsiding, the final moment of pure gratuitous cruelty -

    "Maybe even Francois"
    You say Francois, I raise you Fabricant, Rosindell, and Bridgen.
    Peter Bone too
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,246
    edited August 2022

    HYUFD said:

    Dynamo said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This sounds eerily like Ukraine in Feb of this year. Let’s hope not


    “Taiwan is preparing air-raid shelters in underground spaces such as basement car parks, the subway system and subterranean shopping centres as fears of a Chinese attack increase. The capital, Taipei, has more than 4,600 such shelters that can accommodate 12 million people, more than four times its population. Reporting by Yimou Lee and Fabian Hamacher/Reuters
    Ann Wang / Reuters”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2022/aug/08/taiwan-prepares-for-life-underground-amid-china-threat-in-pictures

    They do this whenever China start to sabre rattle, just in case China is stupid enough to attempt an invasion. It's good future planning and is also good as a drill if as most likely China soon says the military exercise was a great success and go home.

    China know their ability to invade Taiwan is at best very poor, in reality they could maybe hope in taking the islands near the Chinese coast. Mind you were live in times of dictators massively over estimating the ability of their militaries.
    They will blockade, not attack

    China can cut Taiwan off from the rest of the world, then present a fait accompli. No more chips with everything, unless Taipei accepts Beijing rule. I reckon the West would fold rather than go to nuclear war over Taiwan. And then, without the west, Taiwan would reluctantly surrender. Xi gets his prize, China is unified, not a shot is fired, as with Hong Kong
    Taiwan is a highly developed state, it could survive on its own.

    Like Ukraine its residents would also fight to the death rather than accept Beijing rule
    @HYUFD - Which out of the PRC and the ROC do you think has the stronger fifth column in the other guy's circles?

    This is quite aside from what you say about Ukraine, in which I take it you include for some reason the territories that declared separation in 2014, being ridiculous - as in fact it would be in regard to almost any war. (Very few wars have ended only after one side has killed everyone on the other side.) You say "Beijing rule", but were you aware that the PRC has mooted a two systems arrangement with Taiwan? If they invade, they're not going to say "Here's the plan. Everybody here - the rich, the poor, the local officials, the police, the oligarchs, the old ladies, the babies - they've all got to lick our boots forever. Have you all got that?"
    The two systems proposal would last as long as it did in Hong Kong before Beijing asserted its authority
    Nobody is going to be buying into "one country, two systems" anymore.
    Which makes Xi's behaviour in Hong Kong doubly stupid. Had he stuck by Deng's bargain Taiwan might have been interested in a similar solution.

    It's a very big 'might' but it had a better chance of a successful and useful outcome than an invasion does.

    He doesn't just look like Winnie the Pooh, he's of much the same intellectual calibre.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Basically Wi-Fi to me always seems like a technology that is almost very good but always falls slightly short.

    Ethernet remains the king.

    What?

    WiFi is almost flawless. Are you confusing it with Bluetooth?
    Wi-Fi isn't close to flawless.

    Variable latency and jitter, poor speed over long range in general, hence the invention of mesh.

    Dedicated backhaul over Ethernet + Wi-Fi APs and wiring in vital devices remains the best choice.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,751

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This sounds eerily like Ukraine in Feb of this year. Let’s hope not


    “Taiwan is preparing air-raid shelters in underground spaces such as basement car parks, the subway system and subterranean shopping centres as fears of a Chinese attack increase. The capital, Taipei, has more than 4,600 such shelters that can accommodate 12 million people, more than four times its population. Reporting by Yimou Lee and Fabian Hamacher/Reuters
    Ann Wang / Reuters”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2022/aug/08/taiwan-prepares-for-life-underground-amid-china-threat-in-pictures

    They do this whenever China start to sabre rattle, just in case China is stupid enough to attempt an invasion. It's good future planning and is also good as a drill if as most likely China soon says the military exercise was a great success and go home.

    China know their ability to invade Taiwan is at best very poor, in reality they could maybe hope in taking the islands near the Chinese coast. Mind you were live in times of dictators massively over estimating the ability of their militaries.
    They will blockade, not attack

    China can cut Taiwan off from the rest of the world, then present a fait accompli. No more chips with everything, unless Taipei accepts Beijing rule. I reckon the West would fold rather than go to nuclear war over Taiwan. And then, without the west, Taiwan would reluctantly surrender. Xi gets his prize, China is unified, not a shot is fired, as with Hong Kong
    If Ukraine can break the Russian naval blockade by sinking a few ships with Western donated missiles then I'm struggling to see how the Chinese Navy will enforce a blockade of Taiwan.
    Because the Chinese navy is the biggest in the world, supported by a huge airforce and missile capability, and Taiwan is right offshore of China?
    In 2014 the tonnage of the US navy was approximately 5x that of China, roughly 7m tonnes to 35m. The gap will have closed a bit since then but the US still has 11 aircraft carriers (plus 10 helicopter carriers) to China's 2. The Chinese are absolutely nowhere near the US in naval power. A commitment by the US to conventional support for Taiwan makes an invasion an impossibility.
    We've seen in Ukraine how tanks are pretty useless against current weapons.

    Ships of any tonnage are likely to be the same if in range of land.
    So the US fleets would lie to the west of Taiwan and provide aerial support from there. And these fleets, unlike the Russians, are very much not defenceless against missile attack. Meantime, any Chinese vessel that was brave enough to leave harbour is sunk. Troopships especially.

    The risks, as I see them, are massive missile attacks or the threat of a nuclear response to American intervention. Which is not exactly trivial, of course.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,270
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Mad Nad will presumably only accept a peerage if she is accepting that her cabinet career is over. Whilst this is something for all sane Conservatives to devoutly pray for I would not be so confident. She has been pretty chummy with Truss of late.

    Mogg wants to be a "Knight Commander" apparently. You can combine that with continuing to serve the public as an MP.
    Mogg will likely be in Truss' cabinet alongside Braverman, Kwarteng, Cleverly, Lewis, Coffey, Baker, Redwood etc. Maybe even Francois
    God help us all.
    A sadistic post indeed from H there. But beautifully constructed.

    Starts with a vicious slap, "Braverman", allows some respite with a few names of just medium horror, then amps up the pain again with "Coffey" and "Baker", before inflicting the almost unbearable "Redwood" and that terrible "etc".

    Then, just as the screams are subsiding, the final moment of pure gratuitous cruelty -

    "Maybe even Francois"
    Bill Cash as Attorney General as icing on the cake? Last time he was a Tory frontbencher was under IDS and he has backed Truss for leader.

    Indeed IDS may get a job too
    AIUI Bill Cash would not be eligible as he's a solicitor not a member of the bar.
    Minister for Brexit Opportunities would be the ultimate irony.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Mad Nad will presumably only accept a peerage if she is accepting that her cabinet career is over. Whilst this is something for all sane Conservatives to devoutly pray for I would not be so confident. She has been pretty chummy with Truss of late.

    Mogg wants to be a "Knight Commander" apparently. You can combine that with continuing to serve the public as an MP.
    Mogg will likely be in Truss' cabinet alongside Braverman, Kwarteng, Cleverly, Lewis, Coffey, Baker, Redwood etc. Maybe even Francois
    Ah, a Cabinet of none of the talents.
    Yea, but that way Lightweight Lizzy can still view herself as First Among (very mediocre) Equals.
    So, yet again, she's Continuity Johnson.

  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This sounds eerily like Ukraine in Feb of this year. Let’s hope not


    “Taiwan is preparing air-raid shelters in underground spaces such as basement car parks, the subway system and subterranean shopping centres as fears of a Chinese attack increase. The capital, Taipei, has more than 4,600 such shelters that can accommodate 12 million people, more than four times its population. Reporting by Yimou Lee and Fabian Hamacher/Reuters
    Ann Wang / Reuters”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2022/aug/08/taiwan-prepares-for-life-underground-amid-china-threat-in-pictures

    They do this whenever China start to sabre rattle, just in case China is stupid enough to attempt an invasion. It's good future planning and is also good as a drill if as most likely China soon says the military exercise was a great success and go home.

    China know their ability to invade Taiwan is at best very poor, in reality they could maybe hope in taking the islands near the Chinese coast. Mind you were live in times of dictators massively over estimating the ability of their militaries.
    They will blockade, not attack

    China can cut Taiwan off from the rest of the world, then present a fait accompli. No more chips with everything, unless Taipei accepts Beijing rule. I reckon the West would fold rather than go to nuclear war over Taiwan. And then, without the west, Taiwan would reluctantly surrender. Xi gets his prize, China is unified, not a shot is fired, as with Hong Kong
    If Ukraine can break the Russian naval blockade by sinking a few ships with Western donated missiles then I'm struggling to see how the Chinese Navy will enforce a blockade of Taiwan.
    Because the Chinese navy is the biggest in the world, supported by a huge airforce and missile capability, and Taiwan is right offshore of China?
    On paper the Russian naval advantage over Ukraine was much, much bigger than China's naval advantage, if any, over Taiwan and a couple of US carrier groups.
    China has the biggest navy in the world, and a huge proportion of it is concentrated in and around the S China Sea


    https://news.usni.org/2021/11/03/china-has-worlds-largest-navy-with-355-ships-and-counting-says-pentagon

    The US navy, which is smaller (but more high tech) is scattered across the globe
    True, but invasion by sea is regarded as one of the most challenging forms of invasion. The Chinese are just sabre rattling.
    They will blockade, not invade, if they do anything

    A cold American appraisal

    ‘while most American politicians have yet to recognize it, the military balance in the Taiwan Strait has been transformed in the quarter century since the last Taiwan crisis. The local balance of power has shifted decisively in China’s favor. As I explained in an article published here last year, the United States could lose a war over Taiwan. Indeed, as former Deputy Secretary of Defense Robert Work has stated publicly, in the Pentagon’s most realistic simulations and sensitive war games, in conflicts limited to Taiwan, the score is eighteen to zero, and the eighteen is not Team USA.’


    https://nationalinterest.org/feature/taiwan-thucydides-and-us-china-war-204060
    Taiwan is gone. It's just a matter of when. If the west, or what's left of it, is serious about constraining China then Australia has to be the most realistic defensible bulwark.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,790

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This sounds eerily like Ukraine in Feb of this year. Let’s hope not


    “Taiwan is preparing air-raid shelters in underground spaces such as basement car parks, the subway system and subterranean shopping centres as fears of a Chinese attack increase. The capital, Taipei, has more than 4,600 such shelters that can accommodate 12 million people, more than four times its population. Reporting by Yimou Lee and Fabian Hamacher/Reuters
    Ann Wang / Reuters”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2022/aug/08/taiwan-prepares-for-life-underground-amid-china-threat-in-pictures

    They do this whenever China start to sabre rattle, just in case China is stupid enough to attempt an invasion. It's good future planning and is also good as a drill if as most likely China soon says the military exercise was a great success and go home.

    China know their ability to invade Taiwan is at best very poor, in reality they could maybe hope in taking the islands near the Chinese coast. Mind you were live in times of dictators massively over estimating the ability of their militaries.
    They will blockade, not attack

    China can cut Taiwan off from the rest of the world, then present a fait accompli. No more chips with everything, unless Taipei accepts Beijing rule. I reckon the West would fold rather than go to nuclear war over Taiwan. And then, without the west, Taiwan would reluctantly surrender. Xi gets his prize, China is unified, not a shot is fired, as with Hong Kong
    If Ukraine can break the Russian naval blockade by sinking a few ships with Western donated missiles then I'm struggling to see how the Chinese Navy will enforce a blockade of Taiwan.
    Because the Chinese navy is the biggest in the world, supported by a huge airforce and missile capability, and Taiwan is right offshore of China?
    In 2014 the tonnage of the US navy was approximately 5x that of China, roughly 7m tonnes to 35m. The gap will have closed a bit since then but the US still has 11 aircraft carriers (plus 10 helicopter carriers) to China's 2. The Chinese are absolutely nowhere near the US in naval power. A commitment by the US to conventional support for Taiwan makes an invasion an impossibility.
    We've seen in Ukraine how tanks are pretty useless against current weapons.

    Ships of any tonnage are likely to be the same if in range of land.
    US carriers would sit behind Taiwan, of course.
    I guess we'd get to find out of those Chinese carrier killer missiles actually work.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,751
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Mad Nad will presumably only accept a peerage if she is accepting that her cabinet career is over. Whilst this is something for all sane Conservatives to devoutly pray for I would not be so confident. She has been pretty chummy with Truss of late.

    Mogg wants to be a "Knight Commander" apparently. You can combine that with continuing to serve the public as an MP.
    Mogg will likely be in Truss' cabinet alongside Braverman, Kwarteng, Cleverly, Lewis, Coffey, Baker, Redwood etc. Maybe even Francois
    God help us all.
    A sadistic post indeed from H there. But beautifully constructed.

    Starts with a vicious slap, "Braverman", allows some respite with a few names of just medium horror, then amps up the pain again with "Coffey" and "Baker", before inflicting the almost unbearable "Redwood" and that terrible "etc".

    Then, just as the screams are subsiding, the final moment of pure gratuitous cruelty -

    "Maybe even Francois"
    Bill Cash as Attorney General as icing on the cake? Last time he was a Tory frontbencher was under IDS and he has backed Truss for leader.

    Indeed IDS may get a job too
    Christ, is he still alive??
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Mad Nad will presumably only accept a peerage if she is accepting that her cabinet career is over. Whilst this is something for all sane Conservatives to devoutly pray for I would not be so confident. She has been pretty chummy with Truss of late.

    Mogg wants to be a "Knight Commander" apparently. You can combine that with continuing to serve the public as an MP.
    Mogg will likely be in Truss' cabinet alongside Braverman, Kwarteng, Cleverly, Lewis, Coffey, Baker, Redwood etc. Maybe even Francois
    Ah, a Cabinet of none of the talents.
    Truss' Cabinet will likely be the most rightwing Tory Cabinet or Shadow Cabinet since IDS was leader. Most Tory moderates will refuse to serve in it and Truss will offer barely any senior posts to Sunak supporters
    And yet you voted for Rishi as you thought Truss was too much of a Liberal? 🤔

    I expect you'll be disappointed if you're expecting hard right policies from Truss. For one thing the cost of living crisis that the war is causing means many people are demanding leftwing policies, even many Tories are demanding more interventionism.

    Plus Truss will seek to unite the party after the election just as almost all new leaders do (Boris himself being an exception as ending May's paralysis on Europe in 2019 meant taking a firm stance, a situation that no longer exists).

    It wouldn't surprise me if Hunt is offered a more senior post than either Mogg or Dorries, although Hunt may not want to give up the Chairmanship of the Health Select Committee a position he's very well suited towards.
    Hunt won't be offered a post and wouldn't take one either

    Truss has the lowest percentage of Tory MPs backing her since IDS. The only reason she will win is she dumped her liberal youth and sold her soul to the ERG and the ultra Thatcherite, hard Brexit Tory right and they will want their pound of flesh and top jobs in return
    Hunt might be offered a post and he might take one, but I do think he likes his present role so he might prefer to stay there.

    Truss hasn't sold her soul, she's not the same person as she was when she was 18 but who is? The only people who have the exact same views as they had thirty to forty years ago are people like Corbyn who are too thick to think and evolve over time.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Mad Nad will presumably only accept a peerage if she is accepting that her cabinet career is over. Whilst this is something for all sane Conservatives to devoutly pray for I would not be so confident. She has been pretty chummy with Truss of late.

    Mogg wants to be a "Knight Commander" apparently. You can combine that with continuing to serve the public as an MP.
    Mogg will likely be in Truss' cabinet alongside Braverman, Kwarteng, Cleverly, Lewis, Coffey, Baker, Redwood etc. Maybe even Francois
    God help us all.
    A sadistic post indeed from H there. But beautifully constructed.

    Starts with a vicious slap, "Braverman", allows some respite with a few names of just medium horror, then amps up the pain again with "Coffey" and "Baker", before inflicting the almost unbearable "Redwood" and that terrible "etc".

    Then, just as the screams are subsiding, the final moment of pure gratuitous cruelty -

    "Maybe even Francois"
    Bill Cash as Attorney General as icing on the cake? Last time he was a Tory frontbencher was under IDS and he has backed Truss for leader.

    Indeed IDS may get a job too
    AIUI Bill Cash would not be eligible as he's a solicitor not a member of the bar.
    By convention not law and he was IDS' Shadow Attorney General
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,326
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Mad Nad will presumably only accept a peerage if she is accepting that her cabinet career is over. Whilst this is something for all sane Conservatives to devoutly pray for I would not be so confident. She has been pretty chummy with Truss of late.

    Mogg wants to be a "Knight Commander" apparently. You can combine that with continuing to serve the public as an MP.
    Mogg will likely be in Truss' cabinet alongside Braverman, Kwarteng, Cleverly, Lewis, Coffey, Baker, Redwood etc. Maybe even Francois
    God help us all.
    A sadistic post indeed from H there. But beautifully constructed.

    Starts with a vicious slap, "Braverman", allows some respite with a few names of just medium horror, then amps up the pain again with "Coffey" and "Baker", before inflicting the almost unbearable "Redwood" and that terrible "etc".

    Then, just as the screams are subsiding, the final moment of pure gratuitous cruelty -

    "Maybe even Francois"
    You say Francois, I raise you Fabricant, Rosindell, and Bridgen.
    Peter Bone too
    What about Andrea Jenkyns? She can always be relied upon to give the middle finger to dissidents.
  • Opinium

    LAB 37
    CON 34

    Best PM Truss leads SKS

    I am at a loss can any SKS fans please explain

    Starmer is a complete dud. Appallingly poor.
    Ahh that would explain it.

    SKS fans do not concur (yet)
    Hey old chap, hope you are well.

    Who should replace KS and why would they be doing better? I would like polling evidence to support your conclusion
    We have to assume that BJO would like to see the return of that crowd pleaser and (non) winner of elections and Putin apologist extraordinaire, the man affectionately known to PBers as Magic Grandpa or Mr. Thicky.

    Corbyn thinks we shouldn't be arming the Ukrainians because it is prolonging the conflict. Which of course is probably true, because if we didn't Putin would have quickly won, which perhaps Jezza would be pleased about.

    Why is Corbyn a sympathiser for a militaristic imperialist and murderer, Vladimir Putin? Corbyn fan please explain?
    Corbyn has called for Russia to withdraw its troops from Ukraine, and also called for stronger sanctions after Crimea than the Tories imposed. He might be a useful idiot but is surely not a Russian partisan.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,270
    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This sounds eerily like Ukraine in Feb of this year. Let’s hope not


    “Taiwan is preparing air-raid shelters in underground spaces such as basement car parks, the subway system and subterranean shopping centres as fears of a Chinese attack increase. The capital, Taipei, has more than 4,600 such shelters that can accommodate 12 million people, more than four times its population. Reporting by Yimou Lee and Fabian Hamacher/Reuters
    Ann Wang / Reuters”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2022/aug/08/taiwan-prepares-for-life-underground-amid-china-threat-in-pictures

    They do this whenever China start to sabre rattle, just in case China is stupid enough to attempt an invasion. It's good future planning and is also good as a drill if as most likely China soon says the military exercise was a great success and go home.

    China know their ability to invade Taiwan is at best very poor, in reality they could maybe hope in taking the islands near the Chinese coast. Mind you were live in times of dictators massively over estimating the ability of their militaries.
    They will blockade, not attack

    China can cut Taiwan off from the rest of the world, then present a fait accompli. No more chips with everything, unless Taipei accepts Beijing rule. I reckon the West would fold rather than go to nuclear war over Taiwan. And then, without the west, Taiwan would reluctantly surrender. Xi gets his prize, China is unified, not a shot is fired, as with Hong Kong
    If Ukraine can break the Russian naval blockade by sinking a few ships with Western donated missiles then I'm struggling to see how the Chinese Navy will enforce a blockade of Taiwan.
    Because the Chinese navy is the biggest in the world, supported by a huge airforce and missile capability, and Taiwan is right offshore of China?
    On paper the Russian naval advantage over Ukraine was much, much bigger than China's naval advantage, if any, over Taiwan and a couple of US carrier groups.
    China has the biggest navy in the world, and a huge proportion of it is concentrated in and around the S China Sea


    https://news.usni.org/2021/11/03/china-has-worlds-largest-navy-with-355-ships-and-counting-says-pentagon

    The US navy, which is smaller (but more high tech) is scattered across the globe
    True, but invasion by sea is regarded as one of the most challenging forms of invasion. The Chinese are just sabre rattling.
    They will blockade, not invade, if they do anything

    A cold American appraisal

    ‘while most American politicians have yet to recognize it, the military balance in the Taiwan Strait has been transformed in the quarter century since the last Taiwan crisis. The local balance of power has shifted decisively in China’s favor. As I explained in an article published here last year, the United States could lose a war over Taiwan. Indeed, as former Deputy Secretary of Defense Robert Work has stated publicly, in the Pentagon’s most realistic simulations and sensitive war games, in conflicts limited to Taiwan, the score is eighteen to zero, and the eighteen is not Team USA.’


    https://nationalinterest.org/feature/taiwan-thucydides-and-us-china-war-204060
    Taiwan is gone. It's just a matter of when. If the west, or what's left of it, is serious about constraining China then Australia has to be the most realistic defensible bulwark.
    One of China's most impressive interventions has been its wholesale economic annexation of former colonial African countries by stealth, particularly Zambia.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,790
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Mad Nad will presumably only accept a peerage if she is accepting that her cabinet career is over. Whilst this is something for all sane Conservatives to devoutly pray for I would not be so confident. She has been pretty chummy with Truss of late.

    Mogg wants to be a "Knight Commander" apparently. You can combine that with continuing to serve the public as an MP.
    Mogg will likely be in Truss' cabinet alongside Braverman, Kwarteng, Cleverly, Lewis, Coffey, Baker, Redwood etc. Maybe even Francois
    God help us all.
    A sadistic post indeed from H there. But beautifully constructed.

    Starts with a vicious slap, "Braverman", allows some respite with a few names of just medium horror, then amps up the pain again with "Coffey" and "Baker", before inflicting the almost unbearable "Redwood" and that terrible "etc".

    Then, just as the screams are subsiding, the final moment of pure gratuitous cruelty -

    "Maybe even Francois"
    Bill Cash as Attorney General as icing on the cake? Last time he was a Tory frontbencher was under IDS and he has backed Truss for leader.

    Indeed IDS may get a job too
    AIUI Bill Cash would not be eligible as he's a solicitor not a member of the bar.
    You think a small matter like that would bother our equally well qualified first female Lord Chancellor ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This sounds eerily like Ukraine in Feb of this year. Let’s hope not


    “Taiwan is preparing air-raid shelters in underground spaces such as basement car parks, the subway system and subterranean shopping centres as fears of a Chinese attack increase. The capital, Taipei, has more than 4,600 such shelters that can accommodate 12 million people, more than four times its population. Reporting by Yimou Lee and Fabian Hamacher/Reuters
    Ann Wang / Reuters”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2022/aug/08/taiwan-prepares-for-life-underground-amid-china-threat-in-pictures

    They do this whenever China start to sabre rattle, just in case China is stupid enough to attempt an invasion. It's good future planning and is also good as a drill if as most likely China soon says the military exercise was a great success and go home.

    China know their ability to invade Taiwan is at best very poor, in reality they could maybe hope in taking the islands near the Chinese coast. Mind you were live in times of dictators massively over estimating the ability of their militaries.
    They will blockade, not attack

    China can cut Taiwan off from the rest of the world, then present a fait accompli. No more chips with everything, unless Taipei accepts Beijing rule. I reckon the West would fold rather than go to nuclear war over Taiwan. And then, without the west, Taiwan would reluctantly surrender. Xi gets his prize, China is unified, not a shot is fired, as with Hong Kong
    If Ukraine can break the Russian naval blockade by sinking a few ships with Western donated missiles then I'm struggling to see how the Chinese Navy will enforce a blockade of Taiwan.
    Because the Chinese navy is the biggest in the world, supported by a huge airforce and missile capability, and Taiwan is right offshore of China?
    On paper the Russian naval advantage over Ukraine was much, much bigger than China's naval advantage, if any, over Taiwan and a couple of US carrier groups.
    China has the biggest navy in the world, and a huge proportion of it is concentrated in and around the S China Sea


    https://news.usni.org/2021/11/03/china-has-worlds-largest-navy-with-355-ships-and-counting-says-pentagon

    The US navy, which is smaller (but more high tech) is scattered across the globe
    True, but invasion by sea is regarded as one of the most challenging forms of invasion. The Chinese are just sabre rattling.
    They will blockade, not invade, if they do anything

    A cold American appraisal

    ‘while most American politicians have yet to recognize it, the military balance in the Taiwan Strait has been transformed in the quarter century since the last Taiwan crisis. The local balance of power has shifted decisively in China’s favor. As I explained in an article published here last year, the United States could lose a war over Taiwan. Indeed, as former Deputy Secretary of Defense Robert Work has stated publicly, in the Pentagon’s most realistic simulations and sensitive war games, in conflicts limited to Taiwan, the score is eighteen to zero, and the eighteen is not Team USA.’


    https://nationalinterest.org/feature/taiwan-thucydides-and-us-china-war-204060
    Taiwan is gone. It's just a matter of when. If the west, or what's left of it, is serious about constraining China then Australia has to be the most realistic defensible bulwark.
    Hardly, Japan, South Korea, Singapore etc would be gone before Australia. India is hardly on good terms with China either
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,246
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This sounds eerily like Ukraine in Feb of this year. Let’s hope not


    “Taiwan is preparing air-raid shelters in underground spaces such as basement car parks, the subway system and subterranean shopping centres as fears of a Chinese attack increase. The capital, Taipei, has more than 4,600 such shelters that can accommodate 12 million people, more than four times its population. Reporting by Yimou Lee and Fabian Hamacher/Reuters
    Ann Wang / Reuters”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2022/aug/08/taiwan-prepares-for-life-underground-amid-china-threat-in-pictures

    They do this whenever China start to sabre rattle, just in case China is stupid enough to attempt an invasion. It's good future planning and is also good as a drill if as most likely China soon says the military exercise was a great success and go home.

    China know their ability to invade Taiwan is at best very poor, in reality they could maybe hope in taking the islands near the Chinese coast. Mind you were live in times of dictators massively over estimating the ability of their militaries.
    They will blockade, not attack

    China can cut Taiwan off from the rest of the world, then present a fait accompli. No more chips with everything, unless Taipei accepts Beijing rule. I reckon the West would fold rather than go to nuclear war over Taiwan. And then, without the west, Taiwan would reluctantly surrender. Xi gets his prize, China is unified, not a shot is fired, as with Hong Kong
    If Ukraine can break the Russian naval blockade by sinking a few ships with Western donated missiles then I'm struggling to see how the Chinese Navy will enforce a blockade of Taiwan.
    Because the Chinese navy is the biggest in the world, supported by a huge airforce and missile capability, and Taiwan is right offshore of China?
    In 2014 the tonnage of the US navy was approximately 5x that of China, roughly 7m tonnes to 35m. The gap will have closed a bit since then but the US still has 11 aircraft carriers (plus 10 helicopter carriers) to China's 2. The Chinese are absolutely nowhere near the US in naval power. A commitment by the US to conventional support for Taiwan makes an invasion an impossibility.
    We've seen in Ukraine how tanks are pretty useless against current weapons.

    Ships of any tonnage are likely to be the same if in range of land.
    So the US fleets would lie to the west of Taiwan and provide aerial support from there. And these fleets, unlike the Russians, are very much not defenceless against missile attack. Meantime, any Chinese vessel that was brave enough to leave harbour is sunk. Troopships especially.

    The risks, as I see them, are massive missile attacks or the threat of a nuclear response to American intervention. Which is not exactly trivial, of course.
    Why would they lie west of Taiwan? That's on the way to China.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,246
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Mad Nad will presumably only accept a peerage if she is accepting that her cabinet career is over. Whilst this is something for all sane Conservatives to devoutly pray for I would not be so confident. She has been pretty chummy with Truss of late.

    Mogg wants to be a "Knight Commander" apparently. You can combine that with continuing to serve the public as an MP.
    Mogg will likely be in Truss' cabinet alongside Braverman, Kwarteng, Cleverly, Lewis, Coffey, Baker, Redwood etc. Maybe even Francois
    God help us all.
    A sadistic post indeed from H there. But beautifully constructed.

    Starts with a vicious slap, "Braverman", allows some respite with a few names of just medium horror, then amps up the pain again with "Coffey" and "Baker", before inflicting the almost unbearable "Redwood" and that terrible "etc".

    Then, just as the screams are subsiding, the final moment of pure gratuitous cruelty -

    "Maybe even Francois"
    Bill Cash as Attorney General as icing on the cake? Last time he was a Tory frontbencher was under IDS and he has backed Truss for leader.

    Indeed IDS may get a job too
    Christ, is he still alive??
    Nah, he was crucified.

    But three days later...
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,673

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Mad Nad will presumably only accept a peerage if she is accepting that her cabinet career is over. Whilst this is something for all sane Conservatives to devoutly pray for I would not be so confident. She has been pretty chummy with Truss of late.

    Mogg wants to be a "Knight Commander" apparently. You can combine that with continuing to serve the public as an MP.
    Mogg will likely be in Truss' cabinet alongside Braverman, Kwarteng, Cleverly, Lewis, Coffey, Baker, Redwood etc. Maybe even Francois
    Ah, a Cabinet of none of the talents.
    Truss' Cabinet will likely be the most rightwing Tory Cabinet or Shadow Cabinet since IDS was leader. Most Tory moderates will refuse to serve in it and Truss will offer barely any senior posts to Sunak supporters
    And yet you voted for Rishi as you thought Truss was too much of a Liberal? 🤔

    I expect you'll be disappointed if you're expecting hard right policies from Truss. For one thing the cost of living crisis that the war is causing means many people are demanding leftwing policies, even many Tories are demanding more interventionism.

    Plus Truss will seek to unite the party after the election just as almost all new leaders do (Boris himself being an exception as ending May's paralysis on Europe in 2019 meant taking a firm stance, a situation that no longer exists).

    It wouldn't surprise me if Hunt is offered a more senior post than either Mogg or Dorries, although Hunt may not want to give up the Chairmanship of the Health Select Committee a position he's very well suited towards.
    Hunt won't be offered a post and wouldn't take one either

    Truss has the lowest percentage of Tory MPs backing her since IDS. The only reason she will win is she dumped her liberal youth and sold her soul to the ERG and the ultra Thatcherite, hard Brexit Tory right and they will want their pound of flesh and top jobs in return
    Hunt might be offered a post and he might take one, but I do think he likes his present role so he might prefer to stay there.

    Truss hasn't sold her soul, she's not the same person as she was when she was 18 but who is? The only people who have the exact same views as they had thirty to forty years ago are people like Corbyn who are too thick to think and evolve over time.
    Her views on EU membership flipped overnight.
This discussion has been closed.