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Could Tory members tell us when they get their packs? – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    ydoethur said:

    ping said:

    ping said:

    I do find peoples reaction to the Amnesty report rather depressing.

    I mean, I expected Twitterers to be, well, twats about it, but surely the cooler heads of PB can see that Ukrainians ain’t whiter than white?

    Apparently not.

    War makes people stupid.

    I might suggest you read my post about it yesterday morning. ;)

    Yes, war crimes will be committed by both sides - the Ukrainians are not all angels. But there are stark differences: the Russians are clearly the aggressors, and everything that happens can be traced back to their decision to invade. And it also appears that, instead of being rogue elements, criminal behaviour by Russian troops appears to be condoned, or even part of their system.

    The worst aspect of the Amnesty report is that it would make fighting the war impossible for Ukraine...
    I think, actually, the thing that’s really wound people up is that Russia has attempted to weaponise the report.

    That’s what has sent people mental.
    Which was an entirely foreseeable unforeseen contingency.

    Amnesty, of all people, should not have been taken for patsies. Especially given the amount of time they have spent campaigning on behalf of political prisoners in Russia.
    Of course Amnesty International are not the only organisation releasing "impartial" reports, with little consideration for the impact of such reports. I mean, it's not like the Russians haven't any compunction about bombing civilians under the flimsiest of pretexts anyway (indeed terrorising the civilian population is the point). But when they have a report like this behind them they will feel emboldened to do so even more, knowing perfectly well that huge numbers around the world will automatically believe that every bombing of a civilian building is of course a disguised military base.

    Another pet annoyance of mine is the UN releasing their "independent" figures of verified civilian deaths. I mean everyone knows that the figures of a few thousand that they cite are an enormous underestimate (and they always include this caveat). But the underestimate renders them essentially useless, and just serve as propaganda because many don't pick up on the caveat and just cite the headline figure because it gives the impression that the death toll hasn't been that bad. It is interesting to compare with eg. the Iraq war where numbers killed as a result of military action were arguably inflated and extrapolated until the alleged "millions" who were killed by America and its allies are treated by many as gospel truth.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Doethur, the driver that finishes top in the title race, not counting Max Verstappen.

    So it's almost certainly a runner-up market, but if he decided to retire today and somebody outscored him it would become identical to the general title market.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    DavidL said:

    " Global oil prices dropped on Thursday to their lowest levels since before Russia's February invasion of Ukraine, as traders fretted over the possibility of an economic recession later this year that could torpedo energy demand."

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-prices-rebound-after-dropping-lowest-months-weak-us-demand-2022-08-04/

    A realistic prospect of prices going rapidly into reverse as the global economy disappears up the swanny. Punters are already hugely suspicious as to why the collapse in wholesale prices hasn't seen pump prices follow. Just watch the same writ large if crude prices really spiral downwards and the oil companies accidentally continue to make record profits whilst not dropping pump prices.

    Not that there should be a windfall tax on Tory donors you understand, that would be bad.
    There is a little bit of a price war in Dundee at the moment but diesel is currently about 15p a litre less than it was at the peak.
    I filled up with unleaded yesterday at the bargain price of 170p. It was 185 at the same place a few weeks back.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,093
    Morning all.

    Well, it's raining here this morning and Severn-Trent haven't had a hosepipe ban since 1995.

    That is perhaps tempting fate, however.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    MattW said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ping said:

    I do find peoples reaction to the Amnesty report rather depressing.

    I mean, I expected Twitterers to be, well, twats about it, but surely the cooler heads of PB can see that Ukrainians ain’t whiter than white?

    Apparently not.

    War makes people stupid.

    Truly dim. Did you wake up and think Hey, I'll cement my position as a free thinking contrarian this a.m?

    Ukraine's Azov Regiment is balls out neo Nazi and probably at least as nasty as the Wagner guys, if you want some balance. But Amnesty's new rule of warfare, that an attacking army automatically takes a city because putting troops in to defend it is a war crime, is so startlingly novel that I would hope even you would notice.
    "Balls out Neo-Nazi"? Heavily overegged, I think.

    Sometime we will find the dividing line between what is true, and what is Russian Government talking points, or online campaigns by their propagandists / useful idiots.

    eg https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/truth-or-fake/20220519-no-despite-online-insistence-this-azov-fighters-wife-is-not-a-neo-nazi-sympathiser
    Yes, which is why I pay no attention to any claim made by anyone later than 2021. There's quite a lot from before then

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Regiment
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    edited August 2022
    Sandpit said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Pioneers,

    Don't bring emotion into it. The BBC loves nothing more than an emotion-driven news report. Most journalists are the same. "Anyone here been raped and speaks English?"

    Will be hard to keep emotion out of the economy disastrofuck this winter. People are going to die. The press will lap up these emotional horror stories of granny freezing to death, especially the newspapers who have directly championed the politics that made it happen.
    There will also be some groups of people, those opposed to the government or perhaps big fans of EU membership, who will come across as happy to be revelling at the misery of others, in order to make their own political point.
    What we know for certain is that the government and its supporters will take absolutely no responsibility for what is happening. They will blame Remainers, judges, lawyers, the BBC, the Bank of England, civil servants, migrants, the EU, trade unions, the Church of England, the wokerati, the Labour party, teachers, the deep state, the Guardian, etc etc etc - absolutely anyone but themselves.

  • ydoethur said:

    F1: Betfair has a winner without Verstappen title market. Not really got going yet but worth considering.

    Er...call me dense but would people be betting on?
    Sir Lewis, he's got the big mo.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Scott_xP said:

    The mandarin class are right - as I have been banging on about for some weeks - an early election is underpriced

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0d7c0a3a-1407-11ed-b7ce-9b24bf628db2?shareToken=cb224de340ea5a3165760a7e0a5ffb69



    Can't think who that "former minister" [with close links to the Times] might be...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    " Global oil prices dropped on Thursday to their lowest levels since before Russia's February invasion of Ukraine, as traders fretted over the possibility of an economic recession later this year that could torpedo energy demand."

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-prices-rebound-after-dropping-lowest-months-weak-us-demand-2022-08-04/

    A realistic prospect of prices going rapidly into reverse as the global economy disappears up the swanny. Punters are already hugely suspicious as to why the collapse in wholesale prices hasn't seen pump prices follow. Just watch the same writ large if crude prices really spiral downwards and the oil companies accidentally continue to make record profits whilst not dropping pump prices.

    Not that there should be a windfall tax on Tory donors you understand, that would be bad.
    There is a little bit of a price war in Dundee at the moment but diesel is currently about 15p a litre less than it was at the peak.
    I filled up with unleaded yesterday at the bargain price of 170p. It was 185 at the same place a few weeks back.

    I'd urge anyone with a Costco nearby and anywhere vaguely near their membership criteria to get membership and start using them to fill up. I filled up diesel for 182.7, then took my better half's car in the next day (Tuesday) and it was advertised at 177.7, but the pump price was actually 176.7.

    Unleaded is currently 159.9 at Sheffield
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    " Global oil prices dropped on Thursday to their lowest levels since before Russia's February invasion of Ukraine, as traders fretted over the possibility of an economic recession later this year that could torpedo energy demand."

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-prices-rebound-after-dropping-lowest-months-weak-us-demand-2022-08-04/

    A realistic prospect of prices going rapidly into reverse as the global economy disappears up the swanny. Punters are already hugely suspicious as to why the collapse in wholesale prices hasn't seen pump prices follow. Just watch the same writ large if crude prices really spiral downwards and the oil companies accidentally continue to make record profits whilst not dropping pump prices.

    Not that there should be a windfall tax on Tory donors you understand, that would be bad.
    There is a little bit of a price war in Dundee at the moment but diesel is currently about 15p a litre less than it was at the peak.
    I filled up with unleaded yesterday at the bargain price of 170p. It was 185 at the same place a few weeks back.

    In line with my duty to inform and educate as well as entertain, https://www.petrolprices.com/

    Living in the sticks and burning oil and wood for fuel is not looking such a bad strategy for this winter after all
  • Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    " Global oil prices dropped on Thursday to their lowest levels since before Russia's February invasion of Ukraine, as traders fretted over the possibility of an economic recession later this year that could torpedo energy demand."

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-prices-rebound-after-dropping-lowest-months-weak-us-demand-2022-08-04/

    A realistic prospect of prices going rapidly into reverse as the global economy disappears up the swanny. Punters are already hugely suspicious as to why the collapse in wholesale prices hasn't seen pump prices follow. Just watch the same writ large if crude prices really spiral downwards and the oil companies accidentally continue to make record profits whilst not dropping pump prices.

    Not that there should be a windfall tax on Tory donors you understand, that would be bad.
    There is a little bit of a price war in Dundee at the moment but diesel is currently about 15p a litre less than it was at the peak.
    I filled up with unleaded yesterday at the bargain price of 170p. It was 185 at the same place a few weeks back.

    I'd urge anyone with a Costco nearby and anywhere vaguely near their membership criteria to get membership and start using them to fill up. I filled up diesel for 182.7, then took my better half's car in the next day (Tuesday) and it was advertised at 177.7, but the pump price was actually 176.7.

    Unleaded is currently 159.9 at Sheffield
    Where in Sheffield?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    edited August 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    " Global oil prices dropped on Thursday to their lowest levels since before Russia's February invasion of Ukraine, as traders fretted over the possibility of an economic recession later this year that could torpedo energy demand."

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-prices-rebound-after-dropping-lowest-months-weak-us-demand-2022-08-04/

    A realistic prospect of prices going rapidly into reverse as the global economy disappears up the swanny. Punters are already hugely suspicious as to why the collapse in wholesale prices hasn't seen pump prices follow. Just watch the same writ large if crude prices really spiral downwards and the oil companies accidentally continue to make record profits whilst not dropping pump prices.

    Not that there should be a windfall tax on Tory donors you understand, that would be bad.
    There is a little bit of a price war in Dundee at the moment but diesel is currently about 15p a litre less than it was at the peak.
    I filled up with unleaded yesterday at the bargain price of 170p. It was 185 at the same place a few weeks back.

    In line with my duty to inform and educate as well as entertain, https://www.petrolprices.com/

    Living in the sticks and burning oil and wood for fuel is not looking such a bad strategy for this winter after all
    Yes, I have a new multifuel stove in my living room and a big pile of Ash to burn, in case of power outages or gas cuts.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Sandpit said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Pioneers,

    Don't bring emotion into it. The BBC loves nothing more than an emotion-driven news report. Most journalists are the same. "Anyone here been raped and speaks English?"

    Will be hard to keep emotion out of the economy disastrofuck this winter. People are going to die. The press will lap up these emotional horror stories of granny freezing to death, especially the newspapers who have directly championed the politics that made it happen.
    There will also be some groups of people, those opposed to the government or perhaps big fans of EU membership, who will come across as happy to be revelling at the misery of others, in order to make their own political point.
    What we know for certain is that the government and its supporters will take absolutely no responsibility for what is happening. They will blame Remainers, judges, lawyers, the BBC, the Bank of England, civil servants, migrants, the EU, trade unions, the Church of England, the wokerati, the Labour party, teachers, the deep state, the Guardian, etc etc etc - absolutely anyone but themselves.

    And, in Liz Truss' case, apparently governments of all political stripes pre 2022 since 1992 for which she will bear zero responsibility.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    " Global oil prices dropped on Thursday to their lowest levels since before Russia's February invasion of Ukraine, as traders fretted over the possibility of an economic recession later this year that could torpedo energy demand."

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-prices-rebound-after-dropping-lowest-months-weak-us-demand-2022-08-04/

    A realistic prospect of prices going rapidly into reverse as the global economy disappears up the swanny. Punters are already hugely suspicious as to why the collapse in wholesale prices hasn't seen pump prices follow. Just watch the same writ large if crude prices really spiral downwards and the oil companies accidentally continue to make record profits whilst not dropping pump prices.

    Not that there should be a windfall tax on Tory donors you understand, that would be bad.
    There is a little bit of a price war in Dundee at the moment but diesel is currently about 15p a litre less than it was at the peak.
    I filled up with unleaded yesterday at the bargain price of 170p. It was 185 at the same place a few weeks back.

    I'd urge anyone with a Costco nearby and anywhere vaguely near their membership criteria to get membership and start using them to fill up. I filled up diesel for 182.7, then took my better half's car in the next day (Tuesday) and it was advertised at 177.7, but the pump price was actually 176.7.

    Unleaded is currently 159.9 at Sheffield
    Where in Sheffield?
    Costco.
  • Somebody said yesterday that there was no good modern pop. I used to feel the same, but the soundtrack to Netflix’s Heartstopper has disabused me of that notion.

    Whoever put that together knew what they were doing.

    Try Dover Beach by Baby Queen, or Moment in the Sun by Sunflower Bean, or indeed practically anything else from the playlist.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    " Global oil prices dropped on Thursday to their lowest levels since before Russia's February invasion of Ukraine, as traders fretted over the possibility of an economic recession later this year that could torpedo energy demand."

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-prices-rebound-after-dropping-lowest-months-weak-us-demand-2022-08-04/

    A realistic prospect of prices going rapidly into reverse as the global economy disappears up the swanny. Punters are already hugely suspicious as to why the collapse in wholesale prices hasn't seen pump prices follow. Just watch the same writ large if crude prices really spiral downwards and the oil companies accidentally continue to make record profits whilst not dropping pump prices.

    Not that there should be a windfall tax on Tory donors you understand, that would be bad.
    There is a little bit of a price war in Dundee at the moment but diesel is currently about 15p a litre less than it was at the peak.
    I filled up with unleaded yesterday at the bargain price of 170p. It was 185 at the same place a few weeks back.

    In line with my duty to inform and educate as well as entertain, https://www.petrolprices.com/

    Living in the sticks and burning oil and wood for fuel is not looking such a bad strategy for this winter after all
    Yes, I have a new multihull stove in my living room and a big pile of Ash to burn, in case of power outages or gas cuts.
    Multifuel I hope, grp is inherently unsuited for stove making purposes
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    " Global oil prices dropped on Thursday to their lowest levels since before Russia's February invasion of Ukraine, as traders fretted over the possibility of an economic recession later this year that could torpedo energy demand."

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-prices-rebound-after-dropping-lowest-months-weak-us-demand-2022-08-04/

    A realistic prospect of prices going rapidly into reverse as the global economy disappears up the swanny. Punters are already hugely suspicious as to why the collapse in wholesale prices hasn't seen pump prices follow. Just watch the same writ large if crude prices really spiral downwards and the oil companies accidentally continue to make record profits whilst not dropping pump prices.

    Not that there should be a windfall tax on Tory donors you understand, that would be bad.
    There is a little bit of a price war in Dundee at the moment but diesel is currently about 15p a litre less than it was at the peak.
    I filled up with unleaded yesterday at the bargain price of 170p. It was 185 at the same place a few weeks back.

    In line with my duty to inform and educate as well as entertain, https://www.petrolprices.com/

    Living in the sticks and burning oil and wood for fuel is not looking such a bad strategy for this winter after all
    Yes, I have a new multihull stove in my living room and a big pile of Ash to burn, in case of power outages or gas cuts.
    I would have thought logs would be more useful than ash :smile:

    I've still got two more pallets to chop up and then need to order some hardwood logs. But then I'm set for the winter.
  • No ballot papers here yet. Two votes for Rishi on the way as soon as they are received.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    " Global oil prices dropped on Thursday to their lowest levels since before Russia's February invasion of Ukraine, as traders fretted over the possibility of an economic recession later this year that could torpedo energy demand."

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-prices-rebound-after-dropping-lowest-months-weak-us-demand-2022-08-04/

    A realistic prospect of prices going rapidly into reverse as the global economy disappears up the swanny. Punters are already hugely suspicious as to why the collapse in wholesale prices hasn't seen pump prices follow. Just watch the same writ large if crude prices really spiral downwards and the oil companies accidentally continue to make record profits whilst not dropping pump prices.

    Not that there should be a windfall tax on Tory donors you understand, that would be bad.
    There is a little bit of a price war in Dundee at the moment but diesel is currently about 15p a litre less than it was at the peak.
    I filled up with unleaded yesterday at the bargain price of 170p. It was 185 at the same place a few weeks back.

    In line with my duty to inform and educate as well as entertain, https://www.petrolprices.com/

    Living in the sticks and burning oil and wood for fuel is not looking such a bad strategy for this winter after all
    Yes, I have a new multihull stove in my living room and a big pile of Ash to burn, in case of power outages or gas cuts.
    Multifuel I hope, grp is inherently unsuited for stove making purposes
    Yes, spelling corrected!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758

    ydoethur said:

    F1: Betfair has a winner without Verstappen title market. Not really got going yet but worth considering.

    Er...call me dense but would people be betting on?
    Sir Lewis, he's got the big mo.
    Possibly, but his prospects are lost in a Merc.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    IshmaelZ said:

    MattW said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ping said:

    I do find peoples reaction to the Amnesty report rather depressing.

    I mean, I expected Twitterers to be, well, twats about it, but surely the cooler heads of PB can see that Ukrainians ain’t whiter than white?

    Apparently not.

    War makes people stupid.

    Truly dim. Did you wake up and think Hey, I'll cement my position as a free thinking contrarian this a.m?

    Ukraine's Azov Regiment is balls out neo Nazi and probably at least as nasty as the Wagner guys, if you want some balance. But Amnesty's new rule of warfare, that an attacking army automatically takes a city because putting troops in to defend it is a war crime, is so startlingly novel that I would hope even you would notice.
    "Balls out Neo-Nazi"? Heavily overegged, I think.

    Sometime we will find the dividing line between what is true, and what is Russian Government talking points, or online campaigns by their propagandists / useful idiots.

    eg https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/truth-or-fake/20220519-no-despite-online-insistence-this-azov-fighters-wife-is-not-a-neo-nazi-sympathiser
    Yes, which is why I pay no attention to any claim made by anyone later than 2021. There's quite a lot from before then

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Regiment
    The Azov Regiment undoubtedly had (Neo)Nazi origins, and retains some of its insignia from its formation. In general views in Ukraine, as in much of Eastern Europe make it easy to highlight things which are unacceptable from a UK perspective. But simply taking an apparent view that Russian propaganda on these things started in 2021 is extremely naive. Much of what we have read about places like Ukraine has been sowed through Russian propaganda for years. At least since 2012-2014 if not further.

    You literally have to question and treat with scepticism EVERY Russian talking point on these things. It's scary how deeply ingrained much of it is.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    " Global oil prices dropped on Thursday to their lowest levels since before Russia's February invasion of Ukraine, as traders fretted over the possibility of an economic recession later this year that could torpedo energy demand."

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-prices-rebound-after-dropping-lowest-months-weak-us-demand-2022-08-04/

    A realistic prospect of prices going rapidly into reverse as the global economy disappears up the swanny. Punters are already hugely suspicious as to why the collapse in wholesale prices hasn't seen pump prices follow. Just watch the same writ large if crude prices really spiral downwards and the oil companies accidentally continue to make record profits whilst not dropping pump prices.

    Not that there should be a windfall tax on Tory donors you understand, that would be bad.
    There is a little bit of a price war in Dundee at the moment but diesel is currently about 15p a litre less than it was at the peak.
    I filled up with unleaded yesterday at the bargain price of 170p. It was 185 at the same place a few weeks back.

    In line with my duty to inform and educate as well as entertain, https://www.petrolprices.com/

    Living in the sticks and burning oil and wood for fuel is not looking such a bad strategy for this winter after all
    Yes, I have a new multihull stove in my living room and a big pile of Ash to burn, in case of power outages or gas cuts.
    I would have thought logs would be more useful than ash :smile:

    I've still got two more pallets to chop up and then need to order some hardwood logs. But then I'm set for the winter.
    Get it in writing that the hardwood is seasoned. Or get a moisture meter off ebay.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    edited August 2022
    Off topic (!!!)

    Are we having a PB fantasy league this year?

    Leicester City not looking good. If we sell Fofana to Chelsea, and don't replace well we could be in a relegation scrap. Without him (as per the first 3/4 of last season) our defence is crap. Schmeichel gone too, and no signings.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    " Global oil prices dropped on Thursday to their lowest levels since before Russia's February invasion of Ukraine, as traders fretted over the possibility of an economic recession later this year that could torpedo energy demand."

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-prices-rebound-after-dropping-lowest-months-weak-us-demand-2022-08-04/

    A realistic prospect of prices going rapidly into reverse as the global economy disappears up the swanny. Punters are already hugely suspicious as to why the collapse in wholesale prices hasn't seen pump prices follow. Just watch the same writ large if crude prices really spiral downwards and the oil companies accidentally continue to make record profits whilst not dropping pump prices.

    Not that there should be a windfall tax on Tory donors you understand, that would be bad.
    There is a little bit of a price war in Dundee at the moment but diesel is currently about 15p a litre less than it was at the peak.
    I filled up with unleaded yesterday at the bargain price of 170p. It was 185 at the same place a few weeks back.

    In line with my duty to inform and educate as well as entertain, https://www.petrolprices.com/

    Living in the sticks and burning oil and wood for fuel is not looking such a bad strategy for this winter after all
    Yes, I have a new multihull stove in my living room and a big pile of Ash to burn, in case of power outages or gas cuts.
    I would have thought logs would be more useful than ash :smile:

    I've still got two more pallets to chop up and then need to order some hardwood logs. But then I'm set for the winter.
    Get it in writing that the hardwood is seasoned. Or get a moisture meter off ebay.
    Thank you, having had a wood burner for 7 years I wouldn't have known the wood needed to be seasoned.
  • Foxy said:

    Off topic (!!!)

    Are we having a PB fantasy league this year?

    Leicester City not looking good. If we sell Fofana to Chelsea, and don't replace well we could be in a relegation scrap. Without him (as per the first 3/4 of last season) our defence is crap. Schmeichel gone too, and no signings.

    Looks like it, some cad has named his team Mike Hawke Hertz XI.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 5,997
    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    " Global oil prices dropped on Thursday to their lowest levels since before Russia's February invasion of Ukraine, as traders fretted over the possibility of an economic recession later this year that could torpedo energy demand."

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-prices-rebound-after-dropping-lowest-months-weak-us-demand-2022-08-04/

    A realistic prospect of prices going rapidly into reverse as the global economy disappears up the swanny. Punters are already hugely suspicious as to why the collapse in wholesale prices hasn't seen pump prices follow. Just watch the same writ large if crude prices really spiral downwards and the oil companies accidentally continue to make record profits whilst not dropping pump prices.

    Not that there should be a windfall tax on Tory donors you understand, that would be bad.
    There is a little bit of a price war in Dundee at the moment but diesel is currently about 15p a litre less than it was at the peak.
    I filled up with unleaded yesterday at the bargain price of 170p. It was 185 at the same place a few weeks back.

    In line with my duty to inform and educate as well as entertain, https://www.petrolprices.com/

    Living in the sticks and burning oil and wood for fuel is not looking such a bad strategy for this winter after all
    Yes, I have a new multihull stove in my living room and a big pile of Ash to burn, in case of power outages or gas cuts.
    I would have thought logs would be more useful than ash :smile:

    I've still got two more pallets to chop up and then need to order some hardwood logs. But then I'm set for the winter.
    Get it in writing that the hardwood is seasoned. Or get a moisture meter off ebay.
    Ash can be burned green.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    " Global oil prices dropped on Thursday to their lowest levels since before Russia's February invasion of Ukraine, as traders fretted over the possibility of an economic recession later this year that could torpedo energy demand."

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-prices-rebound-after-dropping-lowest-months-weak-us-demand-2022-08-04/

    A realistic prospect of prices going rapidly into reverse as the global economy disappears up the swanny. Punters are already hugely suspicious as to why the collapse in wholesale prices hasn't seen pump prices follow. Just watch the same writ large if crude prices really spiral downwards and the oil companies accidentally continue to make record profits whilst not dropping pump prices.

    Not that there should be a windfall tax on Tory donors you understand, that would be bad.
    There is a little bit of a price war in Dundee at the moment but diesel is currently about 15p a litre less than it was at the peak.
    I filled up with unleaded yesterday at the bargain price of 170p. It was 185 at the same place a few weeks back.

    In line with my duty to inform and educate as well as entertain, https://www.petrolprices.com/

    Living in the sticks and burning oil and wood for fuel is not looking such a bad strategy for this winter after all
    Yes, I have a new multihull stove in my living room and a big pile of Ash to burn, in case of power outages or gas cuts.
    I would have thought logs would be more useful than ash :smile:

    I've still got two more pallets to chop up and then need to order some hardwood logs. But then I'm set for the winter.
    My Ash is well seasoned, I have had it stacked over a year. A local chap does it as a sideline while managing the trees on a local country estate. A trailer load of logs for £50. I had an open fire before, but a stove is cleaner and much more efficient.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    Foxy said:

    Off topic (!!!)

    Are we having a PB fantasy league this year?

    Leicester City not looking good. If we sell Fofana to Chelsea, and don't replace well we could be in a relegation scrap. Without him (as per the first 3/4 of last season) our defence is crap. Schmeichel gone too, and no signings.

    I find this talk of Leicester being in trouble rather odd. You finished 8th last season! I reckon part of it is that because you had games in hand last season, you were in the bottom half for much of the season, so everyone thinks Leicester didn't do very well.

    I reckon the three that came up are going straight back down.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    CD13 said:

    Labrov stated at the beginning of the 'special operation' that the Russians weren't concerned with the rest of the world's views. As long as the domestic market approved. Strangely enough, I think that was a lie too.

    Those with children recognise the “I don’t care what you think” line.

    Usually occurs when they are very very tired and need to go to bed.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    alex_ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    MattW said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ping said:

    I do find peoples reaction to the Amnesty report rather depressing.

    I mean, I expected Twitterers to be, well, twats about it, but surely the cooler heads of PB can see that Ukrainians ain’t whiter than white?

    Apparently not.

    War makes people stupid.

    Truly dim. Did you wake up and think Hey, I'll cement my position as a free thinking contrarian this a.m?

    Ukraine's Azov Regiment is balls out neo Nazi and probably at least as nasty as the Wagner guys, if you want some balance. But Amnesty's new rule of warfare, that an attacking army automatically takes a city because putting troops in to defend it is a war crime, is so startlingly novel that I would hope even you would notice.
    "Balls out Neo-Nazi"? Heavily overegged, I think.

    Sometime we will find the dividing line between what is true, and what is Russian Government talking points, or online campaigns by their propagandists / useful idiots.

    eg https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/truth-or-fake/20220519-no-despite-online-insistence-this-azov-fighters-wife-is-not-a-neo-nazi-sympathiser
    Yes, which is why I pay no attention to any claim made by anyone later than 2021. There's quite a lot from before then

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Regiment
    The Azov Regiment undoubtedly had (Neo)Nazi origins, and retains some of its insignia from its formation. In general views in Ukraine, as in much of Eastern Europe make it easy to highlight things which are unacceptable from a UK perspective. But simply taking an apparent view that Russian propaganda on these things started in 2021 is extremely naive. Much of what we have read about places like Ukraine has been sowed through Russian propaganda for years. At least since 2012-2014 if not further.

    You literally have to question and treat with scepticism EVERY Russian talking point on these things. It's scary how deeply ingrained much of it is.
    If you look at my link, Israel, Canada and the US didn't want much to do with them until they did. Now they may all have been falling for russian propaganda ever since 2015 but it is fair to think they probably did a bit of their own research. Not like they don't have national intel organisations.

    I am not attacking them and I am sure they are far too busy this year to pursue a neo nazi agenda, just making the point that the amnesty report is bad on its merits, not on some blanket all ukrainians are angels theory.
  • ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    " Global oil prices dropped on Thursday to their lowest levels since before Russia's February invasion of Ukraine, as traders fretted over the possibility of an economic recession later this year that could torpedo energy demand."

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-prices-rebound-after-dropping-lowest-months-weak-us-demand-2022-08-04/

    A realistic prospect of prices going rapidly into reverse as the global economy disappears up the swanny. Punters are already hugely suspicious as to why the collapse in wholesale prices hasn't seen pump prices follow. Just watch the same writ large if crude prices really spiral downwards and the oil companies accidentally continue to make record profits whilst not dropping pump prices.

    Not that there should be a windfall tax on Tory donors you understand, that would be bad.
    There is a little bit of a price war in Dundee at the moment but diesel is currently about 15p a litre less than it was at the peak.
    I filled up with unleaded yesterday at the bargain price of 170p. It was 185 at the same place a few weeks back.

    In line with my duty to inform and educate as well as entertain, https://www.petrolprices.com/

    Living in the sticks and burning oil and wood for fuel is not looking such a bad strategy for this winter after all
    Yes, I have a new multihull stove in my living room and a big pile of Ash to burn, in case of power outages or gas cuts.
    I would have thought logs would be more useful than ash :smile:

    I've still got two more pallets to chop up and then need to order some hardwood logs. But then I'm set for the winter.
    Get it in writing that the hardwood is seasoned. Or get a moisture meter off ebay.
    Thank you, having had a wood burner for 7 years I wouldn't have known the wood needed to be seasoned.
    I have a whole tree's worth of unseasoned wood to burn over the next few winters. I can't season it as I don't have a kiln - and frankly it sounds like a waste of fuel! Unseasoned wood burns. Get the fire going on smaller bits, then have your logs chopped into smaller chunks and they burn, moisture or not.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    Bad taste joke opportunity for the day.

    A friend in the Chemical industry tells me that BASF has warned that fuel/power shortages may mean it has to stop
    Hydrogen Cyanide production this winter.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited August 2022
    Techne now has Truss 20% ahead amongst Tory supporters and 11% ahead amongst the general public. Remember their previous poll was the last bastion of copium for Sunak supporters.

    This thing is so over, Rishi really needs to concede and let Truss get on with running the country as Boris seems to have lost interest at the moment.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    edited August 2022
    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    Off topic (!!!)

    Are we having a PB fantasy league this year?

    Leicester City not looking good. If we sell Fofana to Chelsea, and don't replace well we could be in a relegation scrap. Without him (as per the first 3/4 of last season) our defence is crap. Schmeichel gone too, and no signings.

    I find this talk of Leicester being in trouble rather odd. You finished 8th last season! I reckon part of it is that because you had games in hand last season, you were in the bottom half for much of the season, so everyone thinks Leicester didn't do very well.

    I reckon the three that came up are going straight back down.
    I'm betting on Forest staying up.

    Good signings and a top manager, they'll do well.

    Think Everton are buggered.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    " Global oil prices dropped on Thursday to their lowest levels since before Russia's February invasion of Ukraine, as traders fretted over the possibility of an economic recession later this year that could torpedo energy demand."

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-prices-rebound-after-dropping-lowest-months-weak-us-demand-2022-08-04/

    A realistic prospect of prices going rapidly into reverse as the global economy disappears up the swanny. Punters are already hugely suspicious as to why the collapse in wholesale prices hasn't seen pump prices follow. Just watch the same writ large if crude prices really spiral downwards and the oil companies accidentally continue to make record profits whilst not dropping pump prices.

    Not that there should be a windfall tax on Tory donors you understand, that would be bad.
    There is a little bit of a price war in Dundee at the moment but diesel is currently about 15p a litre less than it was at the peak.
    I filled up with unleaded yesterday at the bargain price of 170p. It was 185 at the same place a few weeks back.

    In line with my duty to inform and educate as well as entertain, https://www.petrolprices.com/

    Living in the sticks and burning oil and wood for fuel is not looking such a bad strategy for this winter after all
    Yes, I have a new multihull stove in my living room and a big pile of Ash to burn, in case of power outages or gas cuts.
    I would have thought logs would be more useful than ash :smile:

    I've still got two more pallets to chop up and then need to order some hardwood logs. But then I'm set for the winter.
    Get it in writing that the hardwood is seasoned. Or get a moisture meter off ebay.
    Ash can be burned green.
    @ydoethur said hardwood, not ash

    Myth anyway. Newly felled ash is about 30% moisture so it will burn better than newly felled anything else but you really want it sub 20.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    " Global oil prices dropped on Thursday to their lowest levels since before Russia's February invasion of Ukraine, as traders fretted over the possibility of an economic recession later this year that could torpedo energy demand."

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-prices-rebound-after-dropping-lowest-months-weak-us-demand-2022-08-04/

    A realistic prospect of prices going rapidly into reverse as the global economy disappears up the swanny. Punters are already hugely suspicious as to why the collapse in wholesale prices hasn't seen pump prices follow. Just watch the same writ large if crude prices really spiral downwards and the oil companies accidentally continue to make record profits whilst not dropping pump prices.

    Not that there should be a windfall tax on Tory donors you understand, that would be bad.
    There is a little bit of a price war in Dundee at the moment but diesel is currently about 15p a litre less than it was at the peak.
    I filled up with unleaded yesterday at the bargain price of 170p. It was 185 at the same place a few weeks back.

    In line with my duty to inform and educate as well as entertain, https://www.petrolprices.com/

    Living in the sticks and burning oil and wood for fuel is not looking such a bad strategy for this winter after all
    Yes, I have a new multihull stove in my living room and a big pile of Ash to burn, in case of power outages or gas cuts.
    I would have thought logs would be more useful than ash :smile:

    I've still got two more pallets to chop up and then need to order some hardwood logs. But then I'm set for the winter.
    Get it in writing that the hardwood is seasoned. Or get a moisture meter off ebay.
    Thank you, having had a wood burner for 7 years I wouldn't have known the wood needed to be seasoned.
    To know that is one thing, to trust one's supplier at a time when demand is off the scale, another. top tip: buy a year in advance, and you know for sure.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    DavidL said:

    I find this kind of reporting positively depressing: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62408868

    This man claims that he will have to pay an additional £250 per month on his loans. He has £25k of loans and credit card debt. He is almost certainly paying something like 30% APR on his credit card debt already. His loans will almost certainly be at a fixed rate. Neither are actually likely to be affected by a change in the base rate of 0.5%.

    Furthermore, his debt is currently depreciating at around 10% a year. His salary will be increasing by something like 6% on average. In real terms he will be paying less interest on a smaller debt in 12 months time which he will no doubt regard as an excellent opportunity to top up.

    In short, the story is complete nonsense. The reality is that for more than a decade now we have got used to base rates being lower than inflation. That has a hugely distorting effect on the economy. It encourages debt, discourages saving, boosts short term demand and is potentially inflationary for that reason. For a long time inflation didn't come and even now it has come with a lot of help from an energy price shock. Now its here, however, we have a real problem because the tools we have used in the past to control it are simply not available without genuinely massive increases in interest rates.

    For most of my adult life, until 2008, interest rates showed a real return of 1-2% above inflation giving savers a modest return on their money. That would mean base rates now of around 11% and going higher. This hysteria about a 0.5% increase in a base rate that has become vastly more negative in the last 6 months is really a part of the problem. This mess is a consequence, in part, of the policy responses to 2008 and the Bank's utter failure to unwind those responses in the last 14 years. The same short termism we see in our politics now pervades our economic policy. But a 0.5% increase in base rates in a month when inflation jumped over 1% is really not any kind of a solution at all.

    Yep - dumbing down to the extreme.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    Off topic (!!!)

    Are we having a PB fantasy league this year?

    Leicester City not looking good. If we sell Fofana to Chelsea, and don't replace well we could be in a relegation scrap. Without him (as per the first 3/4 of last season) our defence is crap. Schmeichel gone too, and no signings.

    I find this talk of Leicester being in trouble rather odd. You finished 8th last season! I reckon part of it is that because you had games in hand last season, you were in the bottom half for much of the season, so everyone thinks Leicester didn't do very well.

    I reckon the three that came up are going straight back down.
    Forest are good and well managed, though may have overdone the signings and destabilised.

    There is clearly tension between Rogers and our management, and the lack of transfer budget has made some players restive, notably Fofana. We won't sell him cheaply (he signed a new contact in the spring), but Chelsea have turned his head. He is our only world class player at present.

    I have a few quid on Rogers being the first manager to be gone.

    I don't hold it against Khun Top. Duty Free has not been a good business to be in for these last few years. Signings have to be funded by sales this year.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Eagles, Hamilton has been driving very well lately. I think he's scored the second most points in the last half dozen races or so. However, anyone of the Ferrari/Mercedes drivers or Perez could win best of the rest. I'd be inclined to lay Leclerc (he has a back value of 1.62 which is ridiculous).

    Mr. L, I'd give that post multiple likes if I could. Incompetent journalism on political and economic matters is less than splendid.
  • I'm too tired to make a semen/seaman joke here.

    A captain and former adviser to Boris Johnson is under investigation amid claims he inappropriately invited lone female sailors for mentoring sessions while commanding the Royal Navy’s newest aircraft carrier.

    Captain Steve Higham, who until recently was in command on HMS Prince of Wales, is alleged to have left female sailors on board the ship feeling “uncomfortable” after sending them letters inviting them for the sessions.

    He was previously a defence adviser to Johnson in Downing Street, and his leaving do on December 17, 2020, was one of the incidents named during the lockdown parties scandal. He is said to have been issued with a fine for it.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/navy-captain-on-leave-cabin-mentor-session-claims-6d2d7hl5k
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    " Global oil prices dropped on Thursday to their lowest levels since before Russia's February invasion of Ukraine, as traders fretted over the possibility of an economic recession later this year that could torpedo energy demand."

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-prices-rebound-after-dropping-lowest-months-weak-us-demand-2022-08-04/

    A realistic prospect of prices going rapidly into reverse as the global economy disappears up the swanny. Punters are already hugely suspicious as to why the collapse in wholesale prices hasn't seen pump prices follow. Just watch the same writ large if crude prices really spiral downwards and the oil companies accidentally continue to make record profits whilst not dropping pump prices.

    Not that there should be a windfall tax on Tory donors you understand, that would be bad.
    There is a little bit of a price war in Dundee at the moment but diesel is currently about 15p a litre less than it was at the peak.
    I filled up with unleaded yesterday at the bargain price of 170p. It was 185 at the same place a few weeks back.

    In line with my duty to inform and educate as well as entertain, https://www.petrolprices.com/

    Living in the sticks and burning oil and wood for fuel is not looking such a bad strategy for this winter after all
    Yes, I have a new multihull stove in my living room and a big pile of Ash to burn, in case of power outages or gas cuts.
    I would have thought logs would be more useful than ash :smile:

    I've still got two more pallets to chop up and then need to order some hardwood logs. But then I'm set for the winter.
    Get it in writing that the hardwood is seasoned. Or get a moisture meter off ebay.
    Thank you, having had a wood burner for 7 years I wouldn't have known the wood needed to be seasoned.
    I have a whole tree's worth of unseasoned wood to burn over the next few winters. I can't season it as I don't have a kiln - and frankly it sounds like a waste of fuel! Unseasoned wood burns. Get the fire going on smaller bits, then have your logs chopped into smaller chunks and they burn, moisture or not.
    It is more that it smokes, and the soot clogs the chimney.

    My wood is just stacked under cover for a year to dry.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    " Global oil prices dropped on Thursday to their lowest levels since before Russia's February invasion of Ukraine, as traders fretted over the possibility of an economic recession later this year that could torpedo energy demand."

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-prices-rebound-after-dropping-lowest-months-weak-us-demand-2022-08-04/

    A realistic prospect of prices going rapidly into reverse as the global economy disappears up the swanny. Punters are already hugely suspicious as to why the collapse in wholesale prices hasn't seen pump prices follow. Just watch the same writ large if crude prices really spiral downwards and the oil companies accidentally continue to make record profits whilst not dropping pump prices.

    Not that there should be a windfall tax on Tory donors you understand, that would be bad.
    There is a little bit of a price war in Dundee at the moment but diesel is currently about 15p a litre less than it was at the peak.
    I filled up with unleaded yesterday at the bargain price of 170p. It was 185 at the same place a few weeks back.

    In line with my duty to inform and educate as well as entertain, https://www.petrolprices.com/

    Living in the sticks and burning oil and wood for fuel is not looking such a bad strategy for this winter after all
    Yes, I have a new multihull stove in my living room and a big pile of Ash to burn, in case of power outages or gas cuts.
    I would have thought logs would be more useful than ash :smile:

    I've still got two more pallets to chop up and then need to order some hardwood logs. But then I'm set for the winter.
    Get it in writing that the hardwood is seasoned. Or get a moisture meter off ebay.
    Thank you, having had a wood burner for 7 years I wouldn't have known the wood needed to be seasoned.
    I have a whole tree's worth of unseasoned wood to burn over the next few winters. I can't season it as I don't have a kiln - and frankly it sounds like a waste of fuel! Unseasoned wood burns. Get the fire going on smaller bits, then have your logs chopped into smaller chunks and they burn, moisture or not.
    Um, seasoning is what the name suggests: the passage of time. It is not synonymous with kiln drying. Your wood will by definition be seasoned by next year. This is so even if it is outside and getting rained on, because your problem is sap in the interior of the wood, and rainwater dries quickly and easily.

    https://fullservicechimney.com/how-to-stack-wood-for-seasoning

    and a million other places on the internet
  • A 93-year-old dementia sufferer with one leg died after police officers pepper-sprayed and shot him with a Taser inside his care home.

    Police were called to the home in St Leonards-on-Sea in East Sussex after reports that an elderly man in a wheelchair was threatening staff with a knife.

    When two officers arrived, they found Donald Burgess, a resident who suffered from advanced dementia, holding a knife.

    After speaking to him briefly, one of the officers pepper-sprayed him and then used his baton while the second officer tasered him.

    After being disarmed, Burgess was handcuffed and taken to hospital on June 21. He died after three weeks in hospital, although the exact cause of death has not been established.

    Sussex police voluntarily referred themselves to the Independent Office for Police Conduct (IOPC) over excessive use of force by the officers, both of whom are constables.

    The two have been told that they are under criminal investigation for manslaughter. They have also been handed gross misconduct notices.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/one-legged-dementia-sufferer-93-died-sussex-police-tasered-him-care-home-z73sw0nlh
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,257
    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    " Global oil prices dropped on Thursday to their lowest levels since before Russia's February invasion of Ukraine, as traders fretted over the possibility of an economic recession later this year that could torpedo energy demand."

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-prices-rebound-after-dropping-lowest-months-weak-us-demand-2022-08-04/

    A realistic prospect of prices going rapidly into reverse as the global economy disappears up the swanny. Punters are already hugely suspicious as to why the collapse in wholesale prices hasn't seen pump prices follow. Just watch the same writ large if crude prices really spiral downwards and the oil companies accidentally continue to make record profits whilst not dropping pump prices.

    Not that there should be a windfall tax on Tory donors you understand, that would be bad.
    There is a little bit of a price war in Dundee at the moment but diesel is currently about 15p a litre less than it was at the peak.
    I filled up with unleaded yesterday at the bargain price of 170p. It was 185 at the same place a few weeks back.

    In line with my duty to inform and educate as well as entertain, https://www.petrolprices.com/

    Living in the sticks and burning oil and wood for fuel is not looking such a bad strategy for this winter after all
    Yes, I have a new multihull stove in my living room and a big pile of Ash to burn, in case of power outages or gas cuts.
    I would have thought logs would be more useful than ash :smile:

    I've still got two more pallets to chop up and then need to order some hardwood logs. But then I'm set for the winter.
    Get it in writing that the hardwood is seasoned. Or get a moisture meter off ebay.
    Thank you, having had a wood burner for 7 years I wouldn't have known the wood needed to be seasoned.
    Are we just talking salt and pepper or something a bit more complex?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    I'm too tired to make a semen/seaman joke here.

    A captain and former adviser to Boris Johnson is under investigation amid claims he inappropriately invited lone female sailors for mentoring sessions while commanding the Royal Navy’s newest aircraft carrier.

    Captain Steve Higham, who until recently was in command on HMS Prince of Wales, is alleged to have left female sailors on board the ship feeling “uncomfortable” after sending them letters inviting them for the sessions.

    He was previously a defence adviser to Johnson in Downing Street, and his leaving do on December 17, 2020, was one of the incidents named during the lockdown parties scandal. He is said to have been issued with a fine for it.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/navy-captain-on-leave-cabin-mentor-session-claims-6d2d7hl5k

    Narrow escape with the ship's name there, what if he had invited them to sit down and make themselves comfortable on the Duke of York?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited August 2022

    DavidL said:

    I find this kind of reporting positively depressing: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62408868

    This man claims that he will have to pay an additional £250 per month on his loans. He has £25k of loans and credit card debt. He is almost certainly paying something like 30% APR on his credit card debt already. His loans will almost certainly be at a fixed rate. Neither are actually likely to be affected by a change in the base rate of 0.5%.

    Furthermore, his debt is currently depreciating at around 10% a year. His salary will be increasing by something like 6% on average. In real terms he will be paying less interest on a smaller debt in 12 months time which he will no doubt regard as an excellent opportunity to top up.

    In short, the story is complete nonsense. The reality is that for more than a decade now we have got used to base rates being lower than inflation. That has a hugely distorting effect on the economy. It encourages debt, discourages saving, boosts short term demand and is potentially inflationary for that reason. For a long time inflation didn't come and even now it has come with a lot of help from an energy price shock. Now its here, however, we have a real problem because the tools we have used in the past to control it are simply not available without genuinely massive increases in interest rates.

    For most of my adult life, until 2008, interest rates showed a real return of 1-2% above inflation giving savers a modest return on their money. That would mean base rates now of around 11% and going higher. This hysteria about a 0.5% increase in a base rate that has become vastly more negative in the last 6 months is really a part of the problem. This mess is a consequence, in part, of the policy responses to 2008 and the Bank's utter failure to unwind those responses in the last 14 years. The same short termism we see in our politics now pervades our economic policy. But a 0.5% increase in base rates in a month when inflation jumped over 1% is really not any kind of a solution at all.

    This story has been updated to clarify that the £250 owed was per year not per month.
    https://www.express.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/1649531/interest-rate-rates-rise-increase-bank-of-england-savings-misery

    Headline: Bank of England predicted to raise interest rates this week - 'more misery' for savers

    Article: The financial expert noted that any future base rate hike from the Bank of England would still be beneficial to savers.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    Selebian said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    " Global oil prices dropped on Thursday to their lowest levels since before Russia's February invasion of Ukraine, as traders fretted over the possibility of an economic recession later this year that could torpedo energy demand."

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-prices-rebound-after-dropping-lowest-months-weak-us-demand-2022-08-04/

    A realistic prospect of prices going rapidly into reverse as the global economy disappears up the swanny. Punters are already hugely suspicious as to why the collapse in wholesale prices hasn't seen pump prices follow. Just watch the same writ large if crude prices really spiral downwards and the oil companies accidentally continue to make record profits whilst not dropping pump prices.

    Not that there should be a windfall tax on Tory donors you understand, that would be bad.
    There is a little bit of a price war in Dundee at the moment but diesel is currently about 15p a litre less than it was at the peak.
    I filled up with unleaded yesterday at the bargain price of 170p. It was 185 at the same place a few weeks back.

    In line with my duty to inform and educate as well as entertain, https://www.petrolprices.com/

    Living in the sticks and burning oil and wood for fuel is not looking such a bad strategy for this winter after all
    Yes, I have a new multihull stove in my living room and a big pile of Ash to burn, in case of power outages or gas cuts.
    I would have thought logs would be more useful than ash :smile:

    I've still got two more pallets to chop up and then need to order some hardwood logs. But then I'm set for the winter.
    Get it in writing that the hardwood is seasoned. Or get a moisture meter off ebay.
    Thank you, having had a wood burner for 7 years I wouldn't have known the wood needed to be seasoned.
    Are we just talking salt and pepper or something a bit more complex?
    Depends on whether it's in mint condition.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Selebian said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    " Global oil prices dropped on Thursday to their lowest levels since before Russia's February invasion of Ukraine, as traders fretted over the possibility of an economic recession later this year that could torpedo energy demand."

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-prices-rebound-after-dropping-lowest-months-weak-us-demand-2022-08-04/

    A realistic prospect of prices going rapidly into reverse as the global economy disappears up the swanny. Punters are already hugely suspicious as to why the collapse in wholesale prices hasn't seen pump prices follow. Just watch the same writ large if crude prices really spiral downwards and the oil companies accidentally continue to make record profits whilst not dropping pump prices.

    Not that there should be a windfall tax on Tory donors you understand, that would be bad.
    There is a little bit of a price war in Dundee at the moment but diesel is currently about 15p a litre less than it was at the peak.
    I filled up with unleaded yesterday at the bargain price of 170p. It was 185 at the same place a few weeks back.

    In line with my duty to inform and educate as well as entertain, https://www.petrolprices.com/

    Living in the sticks and burning oil and wood for fuel is not looking such a bad strategy for this winter after all
    Yes, I have a new multihull stove in my living room and a big pile of Ash to burn, in case of power outages or gas cuts.
    I would have thought logs would be more useful than ash :smile:

    I've still got two more pallets to chop up and then need to order some hardwood logs. But then I'm set for the winter.
    Get it in writing that the hardwood is seasoned. Or get a moisture meter off ebay.
    Thank you, having had a wood burner for 7 years I wouldn't have known the wood needed to be seasoned.
    Are we just talking salt and pepper or something a bit more complex?
    Keep it simple, you don't want to end up too chilli.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    I'm not going to pretend to be au fait with financial matters, but the notion higher interest rates are bad for savers is so obviously wrong it makes me wonder who is writing the stories.

    "Sudden downpour bad for people on fire."
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758

    A 93-year-old dementia sufferer with one leg died after police officers pepper-sprayed and shot him with a Taser inside his care home.

    Police were called to the home in St Leonards-on-Sea in East Sussex after reports that an elderly man in a wheelchair was threatening staff with a knife.

    When two officers arrived, they found Donald Burgess, a resident who suffered from advanced dementia, holding a knife.

    After speaking to him briefly, one of the officers pepper-sprayed him and then used his baton while the second officer tasered him.

    After being disarmed, Burgess was handcuffed and taken to hospital on June 21. He died after three weeks in hospital, although the exact cause of death has not been established.

    Sussex police voluntarily referred themselves to the Independent Office for Police Conduct (IOPC) over excessive use of force by the officers, both of whom are constables.

    The two have been told that they are under criminal investigation for manslaughter. They have also been handed gross misconduct notices.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/one-legged-dementia-sufferer-93-died-sussex-police-tasered-him-care-home-z73sw0nlh

    Why would you need a pepper spray *and* a taser? Even on somebody fit and young that would seem rather excessive.
  • I'm not going to pretend to be au fait with financial matters, but the notion higher interest rates are bad for savers is so obviously wrong it makes me wonder who is writing the stories.

    "Sudden downpour bad for people on fire."

    If interest rates are rising a bit but inflation is running rampant then savers are screwed.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884
    ydoethur said:

    A 93-year-old dementia sufferer with one leg died after police officers pepper-sprayed and shot him with a Taser inside his care home.

    Police were called to the home in St Leonards-on-Sea in East Sussex after reports that an elderly man in a wheelchair was threatening staff with a knife.

    When two officers arrived, they found Donald Burgess, a resident who suffered from advanced dementia, holding a knife.

    After speaking to him briefly, one of the officers pepper-sprayed him and then used his baton while the second officer tasered him.

    After being disarmed, Burgess was handcuffed and taken to hospital on June 21. He died after three weeks in hospital, although the exact cause of death has not been established.

    Sussex police voluntarily referred themselves to the Independent Office for Police Conduct (IOPC) over excessive use of force by the officers, both of whom are constables.

    The two have been told that they are under criminal investigation for manslaughter. They have also been handed gross misconduct notices.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/one-legged-dementia-sufferer-93-died-sussex-police-tasered-him-care-home-z73sw0nlh

    Why would you need a pepper spray *and* a taser? Even on somebody fit and young that would seem rather excessive.
    The danger of this kind of story and its reporting is it seems so outrageous that even if facts later emerge that cast the events in a different light, the PC's involved are screwed.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,911
    Scott_xP said:

    The mandarin class are right - as I have been banging on about for some weeks - an early election is underpriced

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0d7c0a3a-1407-11ed-b7ce-9b24bf628db2?shareToken=cb224de340ea5a3165760a7e0a5ffb69

    Was saying this yesterday. Had a nibble at 13/1.

    The thing that finally convinced me was reading the BoE's monetary policy report yesterday.

    https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2022/august-2022#report-august

    The economy looks f****ed well into 2024, so I'm betting the Tories will see their best chance is going to the country soon after a new leader is installed, on the back of an emergency budget.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    ydoethur said:

    A 93-year-old dementia sufferer with one leg died after police officers pepper-sprayed and shot him with a Taser inside his care home.

    Police were called to the home in St Leonards-on-Sea in East Sussex after reports that an elderly man in a wheelchair was threatening staff with a knife.

    When two officers arrived, they found Donald Burgess, a resident who suffered from advanced dementia, holding a knife.

    After speaking to him briefly, one of the officers pepper-sprayed him and then used his baton while the second officer tasered him.

    After being disarmed, Burgess was handcuffed and taken to hospital on June 21. He died after three weeks in hospital, although the exact cause of death has not been established.

    Sussex police voluntarily referred themselves to the Independent Office for Police Conduct (IOPC) over excessive use of force by the officers, both of whom are constables.

    The two have been told that they are under criminal investigation for manslaughter. They have also been handed gross misconduct notices.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/one-legged-dementia-sufferer-93-died-sussex-police-tasered-him-care-home-z73sw0nlh

    Why would you need a pepper spray *and* a taser? Even on somebody fit and young that would seem rather excessive.
    The danger of this kind of story and its reporting is it seems so outrageous that even if facts later emerge that cast the events in a different light, the PC's involved are screwed.
    Yeah, people including police officers die of knife wounds, and the demented are demented irrespective of age and leg count. Not an automatic shock horror story for me.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    IshmaelZ said:

    alex_ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    MattW said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ping said:

    I do find peoples reaction to the Amnesty report rather depressing.

    I mean, I expected Twitterers to be, well, twats about it, but surely the cooler heads of PB can see that Ukrainians ain’t whiter than white?

    Apparently not.

    War makes people stupid.

    Truly dim. Did you wake up and think Hey, I'll cement my position as a free thinking contrarian this a.m?

    Ukraine's Azov Regiment is balls out neo Nazi and probably at least as nasty as the Wagner guys, if you want some balance. But Amnesty's new rule of warfare, that an attacking army automatically takes a city because putting troops in to defend it is a war crime, is so startlingly novel that I would hope even you would notice.
    "Balls out Neo-Nazi"? Heavily overegged, I think.

    Sometime we will find the dividing line between what is true, and what is Russian Government talking points, or online campaigns by their propagandists / useful idiots.

    eg https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/truth-or-fake/20220519-no-despite-online-insistence-this-azov-fighters-wife-is-not-a-neo-nazi-sympathiser
    Yes, which is why I pay no attention to any claim made by anyone later than 2021. There's quite a lot from before then

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Regiment
    The Azov Regiment undoubtedly had (Neo)Nazi origins, and retains some of its insignia from its formation. In general views in Ukraine, as in much of Eastern Europe make it easy to highlight things which are unacceptable from a UK perspective. But simply taking an apparent view that Russian propaganda on these things started in 2021 is extremely naive. Much of what we have read about places like Ukraine has been sowed through Russian propaganda for years. At least since 2012-2014 if not further.

    You literally have to question and treat with scepticism EVERY Russian talking point on these things. It's scary how deeply ingrained much of it is.
    If you look at my link, Israel, Canada and the US didn't want much to do with them until they did. Now they may all have been falling for russian propaganda ever since 2015 but it is fair to think they probably did a bit of their own research. Not like they don't have national intel organisations.

    I am not attacking them and I am sure they are far too busy this year to pursue a neo nazi agenda, just making the point that the amnesty report is bad on its merits, not on some blanket all ukrainians are angels theory.
    Good morning everyone; a fine bright one here!
    On topic, history is history. That somewhat gnomic remark means that Ukrainian Russian relations haven't been straightforward for many many years. It's rather like the 'love/ hate' relationship that exists, in some minds anyway, between England, and I mean England, not the whole UK, and France.
    One could, I think, argue that Ukrainian as a nationality didn't really exist until the 19th century. In any event its current capital is one of the most important cities in Russian history and, if I'm not much mistaken, was is the cradle of Russian Christianity.
    Russian/Ukrainian\Nazi hostilities in WWII were quite complex; I think it's been argued that have the Nazis not been so hysterically anti-Slav there might have been a Ukrainian army on the Nazi side!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Eagles, the problem there is not rising interest rates. It's the discrepancy between inflation and interest rates, with the former being higher.

    Higher rates are better for savers than lower rates.

    Mr. 100, the impending economic doom is a powerful argument for an election sooner rather than later, it must be said.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    ping said:

    I do find peoples reaction to the Amnesty report rather depressing.

    I mean, I expected Twitterers to be, well, twats about it, but surely the cooler heads of PB can see that Ukrainians ain’t whiter than white?

    Apparently not.

    War makes people stupid.

    That's not the issue, and no one is arguing Ukraine are saints. That's a straw man argument.
    Amnesty appear to be condemning what is legitimate defence against an invasion.
    The backlash is not 'Twitterers' ; it is from Ukraine's government, the Ukraine branch of Ammesty itself, and multiple independent journalists have condemned the report.

    And Amnesty's Secretary General has labelled them trolls.
  • JameiJamei Posts: 50
    Got mine in the post yesterday, voted online yesterday. Got an email confirmation yesterday from Graham reminding me it's an offence to vote more than once, and if I haven't actually voted yet to contact them immediately.
  • What have Amnesty done?

    They were my first ever direct debit, set up in 1997.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758

    IshmaelZ said:

    alex_ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    MattW said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ping said:

    I do find peoples reaction to the Amnesty report rather depressing.

    I mean, I expected Twitterers to be, well, twats about it, but surely the cooler heads of PB can see that Ukrainians ain’t whiter than white?

    Apparently not.

    War makes people stupid.

    Truly dim. Did you wake up and think Hey, I'll cement my position as a free thinking contrarian this a.m?

    Ukraine's Azov Regiment is balls out neo Nazi and probably at least as nasty as the Wagner guys, if you want some balance. But Amnesty's new rule of warfare, that an attacking army automatically takes a city because putting troops in to defend it is a war crime, is so startlingly novel that I would hope even you would notice.
    "Balls out Neo-Nazi"? Heavily overegged, I think.

    Sometime we will find the dividing line between what is true, and what is Russian Government talking points, or online campaigns by their propagandists / useful idiots.

    eg https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/truth-or-fake/20220519-no-despite-online-insistence-this-azov-fighters-wife-is-not-a-neo-nazi-sympathiser
    Yes, which is why I pay no attention to any claim made by anyone later than 2021. There's quite a lot from before then

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Regiment
    The Azov Regiment undoubtedly had (Neo)Nazi origins, and retains some of its insignia from its formation. In general views in Ukraine, as in much of Eastern Europe make it easy to highlight things which are unacceptable from a UK perspective. But simply taking an apparent view that Russian propaganda on these things started in 2021 is extremely naive. Much of what we have read about places like Ukraine has been sowed through Russian propaganda for years. At least since 2012-2014 if not further.

    You literally have to question and treat with scepticism EVERY Russian talking point on these things. It's scary how deeply ingrained much of it is.
    If you look at my link, Israel, Canada and the US didn't want much to do with them until they did. Now they may all have been falling for russian propaganda ever since 2015 but it is fair to think they probably did a bit of their own research. Not like they don't have national intel organisations.

    I am not attacking them and I am sure they are far too busy this year to pursue a neo nazi agenda, just making the point that the amnesty report is bad on its merits, not on some blanket all ukrainians are angels theory.
    Good morning everyone; a fine bright one here!
    On topic, history is history. That somewhat gnomic remark means that Ukrainian Russian relations haven't been straightforward for many many years. It's rather like the 'love/ hate' relationship that exists, in some minds anyway, between England, and I mean England, not the whole UK, and France.
    One could, I think, argue that Ukrainian as a nationality didn't really exist until the 19th century. In any event its current capital is one of the most important cities in Russian history and, if I'm not much mistaken, was is the cradle of Russian Christianity.
    Russian/Ukrainian\Nazi hostilities in WWII were quite complex; I think it's been argued that have the Nazis not been so hysterically anti-Slav there might have been a Ukrainian army on the Nazi side!
    There was, although it would have been larger but for the Nazis' many atrocities in Ukraine.

    England and Ireland would be a better parallel than England and France. They were equals and rivals, but for 350 years the Ukrainians have always been at best supplicants and at worst subordinates to Russia.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    Faisal Islam was asked on R5 yesterday between 6 and 7pm how an increase in interest rates would reduce inflation. He really couldn't answer the question, he was all over the place.

    Now, in fairness, he may be concerned about whether an increase in rates has any impact on an external shock but he seemed completely unable to explain the mechanics of macro-economic management. He may have been struggling to put it into words the average listener might follow. Or, just maybe, he has not actually experienced inflation as a major problem and monetary policy being used to address it in his professional life. Any which way, I listened to the economics editor of the BBC with increasing disbelief.
  • JameiJamei Posts: 50
    kyf_100 said:



    Was saying this yesterday. Had a nibble at 13/1.

    The thing that finally convinced me was reading the BoE's monetary policy report yesterday.

    https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2022/august-2022#report-august

    The economy looks f****ed well into 2024, so I'm betting the Tories will see their best chance is going to the country soon after a new leader is installed, on the back of an emergency budget.

    Looks like there will be green shoots by the end of 2024, I could easily see an "it was tough but we got you through this, don't throw it all away it up by letting Labour/SNP in" campaign.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,777
    edited August 2022
    Jamei said:

    Got mine in the post yesterday, voted online yesterday. Got an email confirmation yesterday from Graham reminding me it's an offence to vote more than once, and if I haven't actually voted yet to contact them immediately.

    Are you going to declare how you voted? I'm keeping score.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    alex_ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    MattW said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ping said:

    I do find peoples reaction to the Amnesty report rather depressing.

    I mean, I expected Twitterers to be, well, twats about it, but surely the cooler heads of PB can see that Ukrainians ain’t whiter than white?

    Apparently not.

    War makes people stupid.

    Truly dim. Did you wake up and think Hey, I'll cement my position as a free thinking contrarian this a.m?

    Ukraine's Azov Regiment is balls out neo Nazi and probably at least as nasty as the Wagner guys, if you want some balance. But Amnesty's new rule of warfare, that an attacking army automatically takes a city because putting troops in to defend it is a war crime, is so startlingly novel that I would hope even you would notice.
    "Balls out Neo-Nazi"? Heavily overegged, I think.

    Sometime we will find the dividing line between what is true, and what is Russian Government talking points, or online campaigns by their propagandists / useful idiots.

    eg https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/truth-or-fake/20220519-no-despite-online-insistence-this-azov-fighters-wife-is-not-a-neo-nazi-sympathiser
    Yes, which is why I pay no attention to any claim made by anyone later than 2021. There's quite a lot from before then

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Regiment
    The Azov Regiment undoubtedly had (Neo)Nazi origins, and retains some of its insignia from its formation. In general views in Ukraine, as in much of Eastern Europe make it easy to highlight things which are unacceptable from a UK perspective. But simply taking an apparent view that Russian propaganda on these things started in 2021 is extremely naive. Much of what we have read about places like Ukraine has been sowed through Russian propaganda for years. At least since 2012-2014 if not further.

    You literally have to question and treat with scepticism EVERY Russian talking point on these things. It's scary how deeply ingrained much of it is.
    If you look at my link, Israel, Canada and the US didn't want much to do with them until they did. Now they may all have been falling for russian propaganda ever since 2015 but it is fair to think they probably did a bit of their own research. Not like they don't have national intel organisations.

    I am not attacking them and I am sure they are far too busy this year to pursue a neo nazi agenda, just making the point that the amnesty report is bad on its merits, not on some blanket all ukrainians are angels theory.
    Good morning everyone; a fine bright one here!
    On topic, history is history. That somewhat gnomic remark means that Ukrainian Russian relations haven't been straightforward for many many years. It's rather like the 'love/ hate' relationship that exists, in some minds anyway, between England, and I mean England, not the whole UK, and France.
    One could, I think, argue that Ukrainian as a nationality didn't really exist until the 19th century. In any event its current capital is one of the most important cities in Russian history and, if I'm not much mistaken, was is the cradle of Russian Christianity.
    Russian/Ukrainian\Nazi hostilities in WWII were quite complex; I think it's been argued that have the Nazis not been so hysterically anti-Slav there might have been a Ukrainian army on the Nazi side!
    There was, although it would have been larger but for the Nazis' many atrocities in Ukraine.

    England and Ireland would be a better parallel than England and France. They were equals and rivals, but for 350 years the Ukrainians have always been at best supplicants and at worst subordinates to Russia.
    Obviously I concede the parallel to a professional historian!
    The history doesn't of course excuse the atrocities that the Russians are committing!
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    A 93-year-old dementia sufferer with one leg died after police officers pepper-sprayed and shot him with a Taser inside his care home.

    Police were called to the home in St Leonards-on-Sea in East Sussex after reports that an elderly man in a wheelchair was threatening staff with a knife.

    When two officers arrived, they found Donald Burgess, a resident who suffered from advanced dementia, holding a knife.

    After speaking to him briefly, one of the officers pepper-sprayed him and then used his baton while the second officer tasered him.

    After being disarmed, Burgess was handcuffed and taken to hospital on June 21. He died after three weeks in hospital, although the exact cause of death has not been established.

    Sussex police voluntarily referred themselves to the Independent Office for Police Conduct (IOPC) over excessive use of force by the officers, both of whom are constables.

    The two have been told that they are under criminal investigation for manslaughter. They have also been handed gross misconduct notices.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/one-legged-dementia-sufferer-93-died-sussex-police-tasered-him-care-home-z73sw0nlh

    Many years ago, when I was a callow youth, I undertook non-violent direct action training with Trident Ploughshares. One of the things we were taught was how to de-escalate tension with the police, to chat with them and be friendly.

    You really don't want the police to be nervous or scared or angry. Not much a dementia sufferer can do to put the police at ease, but everyone else should keep it in mind.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Jamei said:

    kyf_100 said:



    Was saying this yesterday. Had a nibble at 13/1.

    The thing that finally convinced me was reading the BoE's monetary policy report yesterday.

    https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2022/august-2022#report-august

    The economy looks f****ed well into 2024, so I'm betting the Tories will see their best chance is going to the country soon after a new leader is installed, on the back of an emergency budget.

    Looks like there will be green shoots by the end of 2024, I could easily see an "it was tough but we got you through this, don't throw it all away it up by letting Labour/SNP in" campaign.
    Like 1997. Nice.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    edited August 2022

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    alex_ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    MattW said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ping said:

    I do find peoples reaction to the Amnesty report rather depressing.

    I mean, I expected Twitterers to be, well, twats about it, but surely the cooler heads of PB can see that Ukrainians ain’t whiter than white?

    Apparently not.

    War makes people stupid.

    Truly dim. Did you wake up and think Hey, I'll cement my position as a free thinking contrarian this a.m?

    Ukraine's Azov Regiment is balls out neo Nazi and probably at least as nasty as the Wagner guys, if you want some balance. But Amnesty's new rule of warfare, that an attacking army automatically takes a city because putting troops in to defend it is a war crime, is so startlingly novel that I would hope even you would notice.
    "Balls out Neo-Nazi"? Heavily overegged, I think.

    Sometime we will find the dividing line between what is true, and what is Russian Government talking points, or online campaigns by their propagandists / useful idiots.

    eg https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/truth-or-fake/20220519-no-despite-online-insistence-this-azov-fighters-wife-is-not-a-neo-nazi-sympathiser
    Yes, which is why I pay no attention to any claim made by anyone later than 2021. There's quite a lot from before then

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Regiment
    The Azov Regiment undoubtedly had (Neo)Nazi origins, and retains some of its insignia from its formation. In general views in Ukraine, as in much of Eastern Europe make it easy to highlight things which are unacceptable from a UK perspective. But simply taking an apparent view that Russian propaganda on these things started in 2021 is extremely naive. Much of what we have read about places like Ukraine has been sowed through Russian propaganda for years. At least since 2012-2014 if not further.

    You literally have to question and treat with scepticism EVERY Russian talking point on these things. It's scary how deeply ingrained much of it is.
    If you look at my link, Israel, Canada and the US didn't want much to do with them until they did. Now they may all have been falling for russian propaganda ever since 2015 but it is fair to think they probably did a bit of their own research. Not like they don't have national intel organisations.

    I am not attacking them and I am sure they are far too busy this year to pursue a neo nazi agenda, just making the point that the amnesty report is bad on its merits, not on some blanket all ukrainians are angels theory.
    Good morning everyone; a fine bright one here!
    On topic, history is history. That somewhat gnomic remark means that Ukrainian Russian relations haven't been straightforward for many many years. It's rather like the 'love/ hate' relationship that exists, in some minds anyway, between England, and I mean England, not the whole UK, and France.
    One could, I think, argue that Ukrainian as a nationality didn't really exist until the 19th century. In any event its current capital is one of the most important cities in Russian history and, if I'm not much mistaken, was is the cradle of Russian Christianity.
    Russian/Ukrainian\Nazi hostilities in WWII were quite complex; I think it's been argued that have the Nazis not been so hysterically anti-Slav there might have been a Ukrainian army on the Nazi side!
    There was, although it would have been larger but for the Nazis' many atrocities in Ukraine.

    England and Ireland would be a better parallel than England and France. They were equals and rivals, but for 350 years the Ukrainians have always been at best supplicants and at worst subordinates to Russia.
    Obviously I concede the parallel to a professional historian!
    The history doesn't of course excuse the atrocities that the Russians are committing!
    No.

    It's one more of very many the Russians (although Stalin was not of course a Russian) have committed against Ukraine over the years. The Ruin, Russification, the Holodomor, the post-war 'denazification,' the response to Chernobyl...

    It's one reason why the Ukrainians were initially very pleased to see the Germans.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    MattW said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ping said:

    I do find peoples reaction to the Amnesty report rather depressing.

    I mean, I expected Twitterers to be, well, twats about it, but surely the cooler heads of PB can see that Ukrainians ain’t whiter than white?

    Apparently not.

    War makes people stupid.

    Truly dim. Did you wake up and think Hey, I'll cement my position as a free thinking contrarian this a.m?

    Ukraine's Azov Regiment is balls out neo Nazi and probably at least as nasty as the Wagner guys, if you want some balance. But Amnesty's new rule of warfare, that an attacking army automatically takes a city because putting troops in to defend it is a war crime, is so startlingly novel that I would hope even you would notice.
    "Balls out Neo-Nazi"? Heavily overegged, I think.

    Sometime we will find the dividing line between what is true, and what is Russian Government talking points, or online campaigns by their propagandists / useful idiots.

    eg https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/truth-or-fake/20220519-no-despite-online-insistence-this-azov-fighters-wife-is-not-a-neo-nazi-sympathiser
    It's possible to think that Russia's invasion is an imperialist monstrosity without pretending that Ukraine has a record of splendid liberal democracy untouched by corruption and extreme nationalism. Yes, the toleration of the Azov movement with its open neo-Nazi elements is a longstanding scandal in Ukraine - essentially nationalism was so strong in the country (for historical reasons that are easy to understand) that it was seen as difficult to crack down on the most extreme exponents of it - and of course Putin exploits it now. The same applied to the toleration of hero-worship for Bandera, despite his intermittent collaboration with Hitler.

    The right reaction to that is surely to say - yes, that was pretty horrible, but it doesn't justify the invasion, and we are right to help Ukraine defend itself (though not, in my opinion, to extend the war to reconquering Crimea). And the same applies to other blots on Ukraine's record. If we start from the position that Ukraine is perfect and any criticism is Russian trolling, then we just set ourselves up for disillusionment - which will actually damage support for Ukraine more than clear-eyed understanding.

    Amnesty is traditionally irritating for all of us who take sides in conflicts. But that's what they're for - we should support them even when they expose something embarassing about a cause we're supporting. If they started covering up bad practice because it's politically inconvenient, it would be a blow to all of us.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,587
    Sandpit said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Pioneers,

    Don't bring emotion into it. The BBC loves nothing more than an emotion-driven news report. Most journalists are the same. "Anyone here been raped and speaks English?"

    Will be hard to keep emotion out of the economy disastrofuck this winter. People are going to die. The press will lap up these emotional horror stories of granny freezing to death, especially the newspapers who have directly championed the politics that made it happen.
    There will also be some groups of people, those opposed to the government or perhaps big fans of EU membership, who will come across as happy to be revelling at the misery of others, in order to make their own political point.
    Well that would be ridiculous of both Socialists and Remainers so to do. It's our misery too! That's a bit like biting off one's own nose to spite someone else's face.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Jamei, welcome to PB. It's possible they could go for a green shoots 2024 approach but the problem is that many will have suffered a lot in the immediate runup to an election *and* it could be worse than forecast.

    Against that, a new leader will want to be PM for more than six minutes. Either way, the call of when to go to the electorate is a tricky one.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,587
    Jamei said:

    kyf_100 said:



    Was saying this yesterday. Had a nibble at 13/1.

    The thing that finally convinced me was reading the BoE's monetary policy report yesterday.

    https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2022/august-2022#report-august

    The economy looks f****ed well into 2024, so I'm betting the Tories will see their best chance is going to the country soon after a new leader is installed, on the back of an emergency budget.

    Looks like there will be green shoots by the end of 2024, I could easily see an "it was tough but we got you through this, don't throw it all away it up by letting Labour/SNP in" campaign.
    Good luck with that.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,461
    DavidL said:

    Faisal Islam was asked on R5 yesterday between 6 and 7pm how an increase in interest rates would reduce inflation. He really couldn't answer the question, he was all over the place.

    Now, in fairness, he may be concerned about whether an increase in rates has any impact on an external shock but he seemed completely unable to explain the mechanics of macro-economic management. He may have been struggling to put it into words the average listener might follow. Or, just maybe, he has not actually experienced inflation as a major problem and monetary policy being used to address it in his professional life. Any which way, I listened to the economics editor of the BBC with increasing disbelief.

    Faisal Islam is pretty poor, and is in the wrong job. He can write about economics reasonably well. But when he speaks, either to camera or in interview, he is not articulate at all and quickly loses the thread of what he's trying to argue. He's been poor on Newsnight. It's as if he can't marshal his thoughts in speaking, only in writing. He should have stuck to being a journalist.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    " Global oil prices dropped on Thursday to their lowest levels since before Russia's February invasion of Ukraine, as traders fretted over the possibility of an economic recession later this year that could torpedo energy demand."

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-prices-rebound-after-dropping-lowest-months-weak-us-demand-2022-08-04/

    A realistic prospect of prices going rapidly into reverse as the global economy disappears up the swanny. Punters are already hugely suspicious as to why the collapse in wholesale prices hasn't seen pump prices follow. Just watch the same writ large if crude prices really spiral downwards and the oil companies accidentally continue to make record profits whilst not dropping pump prices.

    Not that there should be a windfall tax on Tory donors you understand, that would be bad.
    There is a little bit of a price war in Dundee at the moment but diesel is currently about 15p a litre less than it was at the peak.
    I filled up with unleaded yesterday at the bargain price of 170p. It was 185 at the same place a few weeks back.

    In line with my duty to inform and educate as well as entertain, https://www.petrolprices.com/

    Living in the sticks and burning oil and wood for fuel is not looking such a bad strategy for this winter after all
    Yes, I have a new multihull stove in my living room and a big pile of Ash to burn, in case of power outages or gas cuts.
    I would have thought logs would be more useful than ash :smile:

    I've still got two more pallets to chop up and then need to order some hardwood logs. But then I'm set for the winter.
    Get it in writing that the hardwood is seasoned. Or get a moisture meter off ebay.
    Thank you, having had a wood burner for 7 years I wouldn't have known the wood needed to be seasoned.
    I have a whole tree's worth of unseasoned wood to burn over the next few winters. I can't season it as I don't have a kiln - and frankly it sounds like a waste of fuel! Unseasoned wood burns. Get the fire going on smaller bits, then have your logs chopped into smaller chunks and they burn, moisture or not.
    Surely chopping it and stacking it properly - so that it dries - under cover will go a long way, surely? We have a hot dry summer after all.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758

    MattW said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ping said:

    I do find peoples reaction to the Amnesty report rather depressing.

    I mean, I expected Twitterers to be, well, twats about it, but surely the cooler heads of PB can see that Ukrainians ain’t whiter than white?

    Apparently not.

    War makes people stupid.

    Truly dim. Did you wake up and think Hey, I'll cement my position as a free thinking contrarian this a.m?

    Ukraine's Azov Regiment is balls out neo Nazi and probably at least as nasty as the Wagner guys, if you want some balance. But Amnesty's new rule of warfare, that an attacking army automatically takes a city because putting troops in to defend it is a war crime, is so startlingly novel that I would hope even you would notice.
    "Balls out Neo-Nazi"? Heavily overegged, I think.

    Sometime we will find the dividing line between what is true, and what is Russian Government talking points, or online campaigns by their propagandists / useful idiots.

    eg https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/truth-or-fake/20220519-no-despite-online-insistence-this-azov-fighters-wife-is-not-a-neo-nazi-sympathiser
    It's possible to think that Russia's invasion is an imperialist monstrosity without pretending that Ukraine has a record of splendid liberal democracy untouched by corruption and extreme nationalism. Yes, the toleration of the Azov movement with its open neo-Nazi elements is a longstanding scandal in Ukraine - essentially nationalism was so strong in the country (for historical reasons that are easy to understand) that it was seen as difficult to crack down on the most extreme exponents of it - and of course Putin exploits it now. The same applied to the toleration of hero-worship for Bandera, despite his intermittent collaboration with Hitler.

    The right reaction to that is surely to say - yes, that was pretty horrible, but it doesn't justify the invasion, and we are right to help Ukraine defend itself (though not, in my opinion, to extend the war to reconquering Crimea). And the same applies to other blots on Ukraine's record. If we start from the position that Ukraine is perfect and any criticism is Russian trolling, then we just set ourselves up for disillusionment - which will actually damage support for Ukraine more than clear-eyed understanding.

    Amnesty is traditionally irritating for all of us who take sides in conflicts. But that's what they're for - we should support them even when they expose something embarassing about a cause we're supporting. If they started covering up bad practice because it's politically inconvenient, it would be a blow to all of us.
    The issue here is they have, in effect, criticised the Ukrainians for defending their cities by putting weapons in them.

    Which is not really a defensible remark under the circumstances. The issue is that Russia is trying to conquer its cities, and the way to stop civilians being at risk is to compel Russia to desist.

    If they were trying to 'reconquer' (which I might add isn't really an appropriate word, as it implies they'conquered' it to start with which is not the case) Crimea, or seize Rostov, and putting their weapons in civilian areas it would be somewhat different.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    What have Amnesty done?

    They were my first ever direct debit, set up in 1997.

    They've labelled Churchill a War Criminal. Not that they would be the first...

    "We shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender."
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Jamei said:

    kyf_100 said:



    Was saying this yesterday. Had a nibble at 13/1.

    The thing that finally convinced me was reading the BoE's monetary policy report yesterday.

    https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2022/august-2022#report-august

    The economy looks f****ed well into 2024, so I'm betting the Tories will see their best chance is going to the country soon after a new leader is installed, on the back of an emergency budget.

    Looks like there will be green shoots by the end of 2024, I could easily see an "it was tough but we got you through this, don't throw it all away it up by letting Labour/SNP in" campaign.
    The downside for Liz is soooo catastrophic, if I had the balls to lay things I would be laying the shit out of this at 13/1. No election: 2 years 5 months as PM with large maj and a chance of hanging in there as LOTO if GE lost but not disastrously, or a further 5 years. Election now: if lost utter laughing stock, shortest ever PM ship (other than 2 joke earls) and out on her ear as leader. If won, tiny majority only and almost bound to hit the rocks within a year or two.

    It's like batting or not in a test match. If tory lead under 15 points in polls, don't do it. If lead 15+ think about it in private, then don't do it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    I can let you know if my pack has arrived this weekend. However I don't think pictures of ballot papers are a good idea, certainly not completed ones anyway
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    MattW said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ping said:

    I do find peoples reaction to the Amnesty report rather depressing.

    I mean, I expected Twitterers to be, well, twats about it, but surely the cooler heads of PB can see that Ukrainians ain’t whiter than white?

    Apparently not.

    War makes people stupid.

    Truly dim. Did you wake up and think Hey, I'll cement my position as a free thinking contrarian this a.m?

    Ukraine's Azov Regiment is balls out neo Nazi and probably at least as nasty as the Wagner guys, if you want some balance. But Amnesty's new rule of warfare, that an attacking army automatically takes a city because putting troops in to defend it is a war crime, is so startlingly novel that I would hope even you would notice.
    "Balls out Neo-Nazi"? Heavily overegged, I think.

    Sometime we will find the dividing line between what is true, and what is Russian Government talking points, or online campaigns by their propagandists / useful idiots.

    eg https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/truth-or-fake/20220519-no-despite-online-insistence-this-azov-fighters-wife-is-not-a-neo-nazi-sympathiser
    It's possible to think that Russia's invasion is an imperialist monstrosity without pretending that Ukraine has a record of splendid liberal democracy untouched by corruption and extreme nationalism. Yes, the toleration of the Azov movement with its open neo-Nazi elements is a longstanding scandal in Ukraine - essentially nationalism was so strong in the country (for historical reasons that are easy to understand) that it was seen as difficult to crack down on the most extreme exponents of it - and of course Putin exploits it now. The same applied to the toleration of hero-worship for Bandera, despite his intermittent collaboration with Hitler.

    The right reaction to that is surely to say - yes, that was pretty horrible, but it doesn't justify the invasion, and we are right to help Ukraine defend itself (though not, in my opinion, to extend the war to reconquering Crimea). And the same applies to other blots on Ukraine's record. If we start from the position that Ukraine is perfect and any criticism is Russian trolling, then we just set ourselves up for disillusionment - which will actually damage support for Ukraine more than clear-eyed understanding.

    Amnesty is traditionally irritating for all of us who take sides in conflicts. But that's what they're for - we should support them even when they expose something embarassing about a cause we're supporting. If they started covering up bad practice because it's politically inconvenient, it would be a blow to all of us.
    Not what is happening. Azov only comes into it because I introduced it. It is an irrelevance to what Amnesty is saying, which is clearly nonsense. There is no "annoying the right people" angle here.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    alex_ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    MattW said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ping said:

    I do find peoples reaction to the Amnesty report rather depressing.

    I mean, I expected Twitterers to be, well, twats about it, but surely the cooler heads of PB can see that Ukrainians ain’t whiter than white?

    Apparently not.

    War makes people stupid.

    Truly dim. Did you wake up and think Hey, I'll cement my position as a free thinking contrarian this a.m?

    Ukraine's Azov Regiment is balls out neo Nazi and probably at least as nasty as the Wagner guys, if you want some balance. But Amnesty's new rule of warfare, that an attacking army automatically takes a city because putting troops in to defend it is a war crime, is so startlingly novel that I would hope even you would notice.
    "Balls out Neo-Nazi"? Heavily overegged, I think.

    Sometime we will find the dividing line between what is true, and what is Russian Government talking points, or online campaigns by their propagandists / useful idiots.

    eg https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/truth-or-fake/20220519-no-despite-online-insistence-this-azov-fighters-wife-is-not-a-neo-nazi-sympathiser
    Yes, which is why I pay no attention to any claim made by anyone later than 2021. There's quite a lot from before then

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Regiment
    The Azov Regiment undoubtedly had (Neo)Nazi origins, and retains some of its insignia from its formation. In general views in Ukraine, as in much of Eastern Europe make it easy to highlight things which are unacceptable from a UK perspective. But simply taking an apparent view that Russian propaganda on these things started in 2021 is extremely naive. Much of what we have read about places like Ukraine has been sowed through Russian propaganda for years. At least since 2012-2014 if not further.

    You literally have to question and treat with scepticism EVERY Russian talking point on these things. It's scary how deeply ingrained much of it is.
    If you look at my link, Israel, Canada and the US didn't want much to do with them until they did. Now they may all have been falling for russian propaganda ever since 2015 but it is fair to think they probably did a bit of their own research. Not like they don't have national intel organisations.

    I am not attacking them and I am sure they are far too busy this year to pursue a neo nazi agenda, just making the point that the amnesty report is bad on its merits, not on some blanket all ukrainians are angels theory.
    Good morning everyone; a fine bright one here!
    On topic, history is history. That somewhat gnomic remark means that Ukrainian Russian relations haven't been straightforward for many many years. It's rather like the 'love/ hate' relationship that exists, in some minds anyway, between England, and I mean England, not the whole UK, and France.
    One could, I think, argue that Ukrainian as a nationality didn't really exist until the 19th century. In any event its current capital is one of the most important cities in Russian history and, if I'm not much mistaken, was is the cradle of Russian Christianity.
    Russian/Ukrainian\Nazi hostilities in WWII were quite complex; I think it's been argued that have the Nazis not been so hysterically anti-Slav there might have been a Ukrainian army on the Nazi side!
    There was, although it would have been larger but for the Nazis' many atrocities in Ukraine.

    England and Ireland would be a better parallel than England and France. They were equals and rivals, but for 350 years the Ukrainians have always been at best supplicants and at worst subordinates to Russia.
    Obviously I concede the parallel to a professional historian!
    The history doesn't of course excuse the atrocities that the Russians are committing!
    "Ukrainian as a nationality" - I think that it did exist, as a *culture* long before the 19th cent. It was the 19th cent where the ideas of universal rights came up against the discrimination that minority cultures suffered in multi-ethnic states/empires. Which is where the ideas of linking nations to cultures came from - if you are oppressed as a group, it seems logical to have a nation for that group. For those in that group.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    MattW said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ping said:

    I do find peoples reaction to the Amnesty report rather depressing.

    I mean, I expected Twitterers to be, well, twats about it, but surely the cooler heads of PB can see that Ukrainians ain’t whiter than white?

    Apparently not.

    War makes people stupid.

    Truly dim. Did you wake up and think Hey, I'll cement my position as a free thinking contrarian this a.m?

    Ukraine's Azov Regiment is balls out neo Nazi and probably at least as nasty as the Wagner guys, if you want some balance. But Amnesty's new rule of warfare, that an attacking army automatically takes a city because putting troops in to defend it is a war crime, is so startlingly novel that I would hope even you would notice.
    "Balls out Neo-Nazi"? Heavily overegged, I think.

    Sometime we will find the dividing line between what is true, and what is Russian Government talking points, or online campaigns by their propagandists / useful idiots.

    eg https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/truth-or-fake/20220519-no-despite-online-insistence-this-azov-fighters-wife-is-not-a-neo-nazi-sympathiser
    It's possible to think that Russia's invasion is an imperialist monstrosity without pretending that Ukraine has a record of splendid liberal democracy untouched by corruption and extreme nationalism. Yes, the toleration of the Azov movement with its open neo-Nazi elements is a longstanding scandal in Ukraine - essentially nationalism was so strong in the country (for historical reasons that are easy to understand) that it was seen as difficult to crack down on the most extreme exponents of it - and of course Putin exploits it now. The same applied to the toleration of hero-worship for Bandera, despite his intermittent collaboration with Hitler.

    The right reaction to that is surely to say - yes, that was pretty horrible, but it doesn't justify the invasion, and we are right to help Ukraine defend itself (though not, in my opinion, to extend the war to reconquering Crimea). And the same applies to other blots on Ukraine's record. If we start from the position that Ukraine is perfect and any criticism is Russian trolling, then we just set ourselves up for disillusionment - which will actually damage support for Ukraine more than clear-eyed understanding.

    Amnesty is traditionally irritating for all of us who take sides in conflicts. But that's what they're for - we should support them even when they expose something embarassing about a cause we're supporting. If they started covering up bad practice because it's politically inconvenient, it would be a blow to all of us.
    But what the Secretary General was complaining of was that Ukraine was defending in cities, not Ukranian war crimes or political prisoners.

    Might as well criticise the Warsaw rising for that, or the Soviet defence of Leningrad.

    https://twitter.com/AgnesCallamard/status/1555154327815192577?t=bTxhscPTMWpNSstr0xbSEw&s=19
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    " Global oil prices dropped on Thursday to their lowest levels since before Russia's February invasion of Ukraine, as traders fretted over the possibility of an economic recession later this year that could torpedo energy demand."

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-prices-rebound-after-dropping-lowest-months-weak-us-demand-2022-08-04/

    A realistic prospect of prices going rapidly into reverse as the global economy disappears up the swanny. Punters are already hugely suspicious as to why the collapse in wholesale prices hasn't seen pump prices follow. Just watch the same writ large if crude prices really spiral downwards and the oil companies accidentally continue to make record profits whilst not dropping pump prices.

    Not that there should be a windfall tax on Tory donors you understand, that would be bad.
    There is a little bit of a price war in Dundee at the moment but diesel is currently about 15p a litre less than it was at the peak.
    I filled up with unleaded yesterday at the bargain price of 170p. It was 185 at the same place a few weeks back.

    In line with my duty to inform and educate as well as entertain, https://www.petrolprices.com/

    Living in the sticks and burning oil and wood for fuel is not looking such a bad strategy for this winter after all
    Yes, I have a new multihull stove in my living room and a big pile of Ash to burn, in case of power outages or gas cuts.
    I would have thought logs would be more useful than ash :smile:

    I've still got two more pallets to chop up and then need to order some hardwood logs. But then I'm set for the winter.
    Get it in writing that the hardwood is seasoned. Or get a moisture meter off ebay.
    Thank you, having had a wood burner for 7 years I wouldn't have known the wood needed to be seasoned.
    I have a whole tree's worth of unseasoned wood to burn over the next few winters. I can't season it as I don't have a kiln - and frankly it sounds like a waste of fuel! Unseasoned wood burns. Get the fire going on smaller bits, then have your logs chopped into smaller chunks and they burn, moisture or not.
    Surely chopping it and stacking it properly - so that it dries - under cover will go a long way, surely? We have a hot dry summer after all.
    It will go all the way. stack it where the sun and wind can get at it, under cover if possible, and you are there.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454
    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    Off topic (!!!)

    Are we having a PB fantasy league this year?

    Leicester City not looking good. If we sell Fofana to Chelsea, and don't replace well we could be in a relegation scrap. Without him (as per the first 3/4 of last season) our defence is crap. Schmeichel gone too, and no signings.

    I find this talk of Leicester being in trouble rather odd. You finished 8th last season! I reckon part of it is that because you had games in hand last season, you were in the bottom half for much of the season, so everyone thinks Leicester didn't do very well.

    I reckon the three that came up are going straight back down.
    Forest are good and well managed, though may have overdone the signings and destabilised.

    There is clearly tension between Rogers and our management, and the lack of transfer budget has made some players restive, notably Fofana. We won't sell him cheaply (he signed a new contact in the spring), but Chelsea have turned his head. He is our only world class player at present.

    I have a few quid on Rogers being the first manager to be gone.

    I don't hold it against Khun Top. Duty Free has not been a good business to be in for these last few years. Signings have to be funded by sales this year.

    After their loans were returned Forest had about 5 players left who might be expected to make it in the Prem, but still unproven, and another 3 or 4 who might possibly make it in the Prem but probably not at the right level. The rest were bottom half of Championship standard and/or too inexperienced.

    Stability was not an option, nor was only making half a dozen signings.
  • I received my form yesterday.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,587

    A 93-year-old dementia sufferer with one leg died after police officers pepper-sprayed and shot him with a Taser inside his care home.

    Police were called to the home in St Leonards-on-Sea in East Sussex after reports that an elderly man in a wheelchair was threatening staff with a knife.

    When two officers arrived, they found Donald Burgess, a resident who suffered from advanced dementia, holding a knife.

    After speaking to him briefly, one of the officers pepper-sprayed him and then used his baton while the second officer tasered him.

    After being disarmed, Burgess was handcuffed and taken to hospital on June 21. He died after three weeks in hospital, although the exact cause of death has not been established.

    Sussex police voluntarily referred themselves to the Independent Office for Police Conduct (IOPC) over excessive use of force by the officers, both of whom are constables.

    The two have been told that they are under criminal investigation for manslaughter. They have also been handed gross misconduct notices.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/one-legged-dementia-sufferer-93-died-sussex-police-tasered-him-care-home-z73sw0nlh

    Many years ago, when I was a callow youth, I undertook non-violent direct action training with Trident Ploughshares. One of the things we were taught was how to de-escalate tension with the police, to chat with them and be friendly.

    You really don't want the police to be nervous or scared or angry. Not much a dementia sufferer can do to put the police at ease, but everyone else should keep it in mind.
    And yet one would have thought it would better serve the police rather than members of the public to be trained in de-escalation techniques. Hey ho.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    IshmaelZ said:

    Jamei said:

    kyf_100 said:



    Was saying this yesterday. Had a nibble at 13/1.

    The thing that finally convinced me was reading the BoE's monetary policy report yesterday.

    https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2022/august-2022#report-august

    The economy looks f****ed well into 2024, so I'm betting the Tories will see their best chance is going to the country soon after a new leader is installed, on the back of an emergency budget.

    Looks like there will be green shoots by the end of 2024, I could easily see an "it was tough but we got you through this, don't throw it all away it up by letting Labour/SNP in" campaign.
    The downside for Liz is soooo catastrophic, if I had the balls to lay things I would be laying the shit out of this at 13/1. No election: 2 years 5 months as PM with large maj and a chance of hanging in there as LOTO if GE lost but not disastrously, or a further 5 years. Election now: if lost utter laughing stock, shortest ever PM ship (other than 2 joke earls) and out on her ear as leader. If won, tiny majority only and almost bound to hit the rocks within a year or two.

    It's like batting or not in a test match. If tory lead under 15 points in polls, don't do it. If lead 15+ think about it in private, then don't do it.
    Yes, that's my thought, and yet. England have won their last four Tests batting second. What if Tory Brexit Populism has changed the game?

    I think she'd need a better excuse for an election than, "a recession is coming and you won't vote for me after it," but if she can engineer a reasonable reason for an early election she might well surprise people.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263

    What have Amnesty done?

    They were my first ever direct debit, set up in 1997.

    They've reported that Ukraine frequently bases troops and firing positions in schools and hospitals (sometimes though not always after civilians have been evacuated). That puts in context the verified reports of Russians bombing schools and hospitals, so if one takes the view that anything that introduces a nuance is bad for Ukraine, then Amnesty are being naughty. The reality is that any urban conflict is going to be nasty and nobody emerges with completely clean hands, and it's useful to be reminded of that, without thereby justifying the war.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    rcs1000 said:

    vik said:

    Smarkets have a market on the Florida governor race, with DeSantis on 1.09 & Crist on 12.5.

    This could be one to watch. Last time (in 2018) De Santis barely managed to win with 49.6% against 49.2% for a relatively weak Dem candidate (Andrew Gillum).

    Charlie Crist is a significantly stronger candidate, being a former Republican and a former Governor, although the environment for Dems right now is a lot more unfavourable than 2018.

    Still, there is a possibility that a backlash driven by the SC abortion ruling might be enough to cause problems for DeSantis, specially with a moderate Dem opponent & in a relatively purple state.

    The last DeSantis vs Crist poll was in Feb & had DeSantis a whopping 21 points ahead, but earlier polls had the margin a lot closer (between 6 to 8 points).

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/fl/florida_governor_desantis_vs_crist-7324.html

    @HYUFD has been of the opinion that this is a close fight for some time. I have been sceptical, but... I do wonder. Florida is extremely pro-Choice; Florida's Republican legislature has passed an *extremely* restrictive anti-abortion law; and DeSantis has chosen to suspend a prosecutor who has said he won't prosecute those accused of abortion offences.

    We have seen from Kansas that abortion can be a great motivator. Twenty percent of voters came out just to vote in the referendum.

    I'd take 12.5 on Crist. Heck; I might take 8s or higher.
    Crist beats DeSantis 45% to 44% in the latest poll

    https://floridianpress.com/2021/08/desantis-falls-behind-charlie-crist-in-new-poll/
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    A 93-year-old dementia sufferer with one leg died after police officers pepper-sprayed and shot him with a Taser inside his care home.

    Police were called to the home in St Leonards-on-Sea in East Sussex after reports that an elderly man in a wheelchair was threatening staff with a knife.

    When two officers arrived, they found Donald Burgess, a resident who suffered from advanced dementia, holding a knife.

    After speaking to him briefly, one of the officers pepper-sprayed him and then used his baton while the second officer tasered him.

    After being disarmed, Burgess was handcuffed and taken to hospital on June 21. He died after three weeks in hospital, although the exact cause of death has not been established.

    Sussex police voluntarily referred themselves to the Independent Office for Police Conduct (IOPC) over excessive use of force by the officers, both of whom are constables.

    The two have been told that they are under criminal investigation for manslaughter. They have also been handed gross misconduct notices.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/one-legged-dementia-sufferer-93-died-sussex-police-tasered-him-care-home-z73sw0nlh

    Many years ago, when I was a callow youth, I undertook non-violent direct action training with Trident Ploughshares. One of the things we were taught was how to de-escalate tension with the police, to chat with them and be friendly.

    You really don't want the police to be nervous or scared or angry. Not much a dementia sufferer can do to put the police at ease, but everyone else should keep it in mind.
    Also bear in mind staff in nursing homes are pretty robust and used to dealing with this sort of thing. Where possible their reaction would be to say Give me that knife you old fool and I'll make you a nice cup of tea, rather than filling the place up with police and scaring the other residents, and having awkward qs to answer as to why he was allowed near a knife. So this guy was probably legit scary.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    It's time to unite.
    21 current and former colleagues who have sat around the Cabinet table have come together to back Liz.
    She will unite our Party, beat Keir Starmer, and is trusted to deliver for Britain 👇 https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1555468229392437249/photo/1

    ✅ Jake Berry
    ✅ Suella Braverman
    ✅ James Cleverly
    ✅ Simon Clarke
    ✅ Therese Coffey
    ✅ Michelle Donelan
    ✅ Nadine Dorries
    ✅ David Frost
    ✅ Sajid Javid
    ✅ David Jones
    ✅ Kwasi Kwarteng
    ✅ Brandon Lewis
    ✅ Penny Mordaunt
    ✅ David Mundell
    ✅ John Redwood
    ✅ Jacob Rees-Mogg
    ✅ Iain Duncan Smith
    ✅ Anne-Marie Trevelyan
    ✅ Ben Wallace
    ✅ John Whittingdale
    ✅ Nadhim Zahawi



    The deluded, the desperate, the dismal and the demented...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,587
    edited August 2022
    HYUFD said:

    I can let you know if my pack has arrived this weekend. However I don't think pictures of ballot papers are a good idea, certainly not completed ones anyway

    Can we count you as a Boris write-in?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    HYUFD said:

    I can let you know if my pack has arrived this weekend. However I don't think pictures of ballot papers are a good idea, certainly not completed ones anyway

    Morning @HYUFD

    How was Elvis last night.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    Off topic (!!!)

    Are we having a PB fantasy league this year?

    Leicester City not looking good. If we sell Fofana to Chelsea, and don't replace well we could be in a relegation scrap. Without him (as per the first 3/4 of last season) our defence is crap. Schmeichel gone too, and no signings.

    I find this talk of Leicester being in trouble rather odd. You finished 8th last season! I reckon part of it is that because you had games in hand last season, you were in the bottom half for much of the season, so everyone thinks Leicester didn't do very well.

    I reckon the three that came up are going straight back down.
    Forest are good and well managed, though may have overdone the signings and destabilised.

    There is clearly tension between Rogers and our management, and the lack of transfer budget has made some players restive, notably Fofana. We won't sell him cheaply (he signed a new contact in the spring), but Chelsea have turned his head. He is our only world class player at present.

    I have a few quid on Rogers being the first manager to be gone.

    I don't hold it against Khun Top. Duty Free has not been a good business to be in for these last few years. Signings have to be funded by sales this year.

    After their loans were returned Forest had about 5 players left who might be expected to make it in the Prem, but still unproven, and another 3 or 4 who might possibly make it in the Prem but probably not at the right level. The rest were bottom half of Championship standard and/or too inexperienced.

    Stability was not an option, nor was only making half a dozen signings.
    I have seen it before with promoted teams (including Leicester City) of refreshing a team so completely that it loses all cohesion, and are in the relegation zone before the new players integrate. It is nearly as bad as Norwich City's approach of hardly signing anyone.

    I think Forest will be top of the promoted teams, and it is very rare for all promoted teams to go straight back down.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    Scott_xP said:

    It's time to unite.
    21 current and former colleagues who have sat around the Cabinet table have come together to back Liz.
    She will unite our Party, beat Keir Starmer, and is trusted to deliver for Britain 👇 https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1555468229392437249/photo/1

    ✅ Jake Berry
    ✅ Suella Braverman
    ✅ James Cleverly
    ✅ Simon Clarke
    ✅ Therese Coffey
    ✅ Michelle Donelan
    ✅ Nadine Dorries
    ✅ David Frost
    ✅ Sajid Javid
    ✅ David Jones
    ✅ Kwasi Kwarteng
    ✅ Brandon Lewis
    ✅ Penny Mordaunt
    ✅ David Mundell
    ✅ John Redwood
    ✅ Jacob Rees-Mogg
    ✅ Iain Duncan Smith
    ✅ Anne-Marie Trevelyan
    ✅ Ben Wallace
    ✅ John Whittingdale
    ✅ Nadhim Zahawi



    The deluded, the desperate, the dismal and the demented...

    Or the merely opportunistic and careerist!
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Scott_xP said:

    It's time to unite.
    21 current and former colleagues who have sat around the Cabinet table have come together to back Liz.
    She will unite our Party, beat Keir Starmer, and is trusted to deliver for Britain 👇 https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1555468229392437249/photo/1

    ✅ Jake Berry
    ✅ Suella Braverman
    ✅ James Cleverly
    ✅ Simon Clarke
    ✅ Therese Coffey
    ✅ Michelle Donelan
    ✅ Nadine Dorries
    ✅ David Frost
    ✅ Sajid Javid
    ✅ David Jones
    ✅ Kwasi Kwarteng
    ✅ Brandon Lewis
    ✅ Penny Mordaunt
    ✅ David Mundell
    ✅ John Redwood
    ✅ Jacob Rees-Mogg
    ✅ Iain Duncan Smith
    ✅ Anne-Marie Trevelyan
    ✅ Ben Wallace
    ✅ John Whittingdale
    ✅ Nadhim Zahawi



    The deluded, the desperate, the dismal and the demented...

    Ex squeezes, perverts, job applicants and tax avoiders. Meanwhile Rishi has got Hague, Major and Clarke behind him.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454

    I'm not going to pretend to be au fait with financial matters, but the notion higher interest rates are bad for savers is so obviously wrong it makes me wonder who is writing the stories.

    "Sudden downpour bad for people on fire."

    If interest rates are rising a bit but inflation is running rampant then savers are screwed.
    Rising rates are generally a sign that inflation is higher than target, so there is some tension between rising rates (immediate impact boost for savers) and the confirmation of expected future inflation (bad for savers).

    The change in rates itself is clearly good for savers, but not sure that it is preferable that it is happening.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    A 93-year-old dementia sufferer with one leg died after police officers pepper-sprayed and shot him with a Taser inside his care home.

    Police were called to the home in St Leonards-on-Sea in East Sussex after reports that an elderly man in a wheelchair was threatening staff with a knife.

    When two officers arrived, they found Donald Burgess, a resident who suffered from advanced dementia, holding a knife.

    After speaking to him briefly, one of the officers pepper-sprayed him and then used his baton while the second officer tasered him.

    After being disarmed, Burgess was handcuffed and taken to hospital on June 21. He died after three weeks in hospital, although the exact cause of death has not been established.

    Sussex police voluntarily referred themselves to the Independent Office for Police Conduct (IOPC) over excessive use of force by the officers, both of whom are constables.

    The two have been told that they are under criminal investigation for manslaughter. They have also been handed gross misconduct notices.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/one-legged-dementia-sufferer-93-died-sussex-police-tasered-him-care-home-z73sw0nlh

    Many years ago, when I was a callow youth, I undertook non-violent direct action training with Trident Ploughshares. One of the things we were taught was how to de-escalate tension with the police, to chat with them and be friendly.

    You really don't want the police to be nervous or scared or angry. Not much a dementia sufferer can do to put the police at ease, but everyone else should keep it in mind.
    And yet one would have thought it would better serve the police rather than members of the public to be trained in de-escalation techniques. Hey ho.
    I bow to no-one in the extent of my idealism, but until utopia is achieved we have to deal with the unfortunate reality that you have to be able to protect yourself from the police, and the only way you can hope to do that is to reassure them that you're a nice person and they have nothing to fear from you.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    edited August 2022

    What have Amnesty done?

    They were my first ever direct debit, set up in 1997.

    They've reported that Ukraine frequently bases troops and firing positions in schools and hospitals (sometimes though not always after civilians have been evacuated). That puts in context the verified reports of Russians bombing schools and hospitals, so if one takes the view that anything that introduces a nuance is bad for Ukraine, then Amnesty are being naughty. The reality is that any urban conflict is going to be nasty and nobody emerges with completely clean hands, and it's useful to be reminded of that, without thereby justifying the war.
    Or one could take the view that Russia should not bomb schools and hospitals, regardless of what weaponry is near them, because they shouldn't be there in the first place.

    What are the Ukrainians meant to do? Not defend them? Just let the Russians seize these places which may have civilians in and launch massacres?
This discussion has been closed.