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Could Tory members tell us when they get their packs? – politicalbetting.com
Could Tory members tell us when they get their packs? – politicalbetting.com
We do know that the mailing of ballot packs has been put back a bit and it would be useful to know when voting actually starts.
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1.13 Liz Truss 88%
8.4 Rishi Sunak 12%
Next Conservative leader
1.13 Liz Truss 88%
8.4 Rishi Sunak 12%
This could be one to watch. Last time (in 2018) De Santis barely managed to win with 49.6% against 49.2% for a relatively weak Dem candidate (Andrew Gillum).
Charlie Crist is a significantly stronger candidate, being a former Republican and a former Governor, although the environment for Dems right now is a lot more unfavourable than 2018.
Still, there is a possibility that a backlash driven by the SC abortion ruling might be enough to cause problems for DeSantis, specially with a moderate Dem opponent & in a relatively purple state.
The last DeSantis vs Crist poll was in Feb & had DeSantis a whopping 21 points ahead, but earlier polls had the margin a lot closer (between 6 to 8 points).
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/fl/florida_governor_desantis_vs_crist-7324.html
ETA it was @JohnO yesterday
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4058793#Comment_4058793
One group experiences neurological symptoms including fatigue, brain fog and headache, which most often affect those who contracted the virus when the Alpha and Delta variants were most prevalent, according to experts at King's College London.
A second group suffers from respiratory issues, including chest pain and severe shortness of breath, which could point to lung damage.
These symptoms were common among those infected during the first wave of the pandemic.
The final group is grappling with a diverse range of symptoms including heart palpitations, muscle ache and pain, and changes in skin and hair.
https://news.sky.com/story/three-types-of-long-covid-each-with-different-symptoms-researchers-say-12663531
We have seen from Kansas that abortion can be a great motivator. Twenty percent of voters came out just to vote in the referendum.
I'd take 12.5 on Crist. Heck; I might take 8s or higher.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62431183
The one thing he is supposed to have is competence. As an big-brained lawyer, he should be able to follow the same rules that the vast majority of MPs successfully do.
Breaking the same rues Boris was found to have broken four years ago...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62431183
https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1555280431561560064
It's no excuse. Starmer's USP is one of boring competence. It turns out that whilst he is boring, he isn't competent. If we were to go back to the relevant threads, were you so 'understanding' when Johnson broke them?
Here's a little hint for him: if he wants to avoid these problems, then he simply should not accept £1k+ tickets to a football match. especially as they also make him look utterly out of touch...
Besides, that misses the point. Starmer is supposed to be better than this. He is supposed to be competent. Yet when it comes to Durham, or free gifts, he is incompetent.
"The World Needs Russia to Win the Conflict in Ukraine. Here’s Why?"
https://medium.com/statecraft-and-global-affairs/the-world-needs-russia-to-win-the-conflict-in-ukraine-heres-why-c4e8ec9c82e9
In which he ignores vast tracts of history and facts in order to shoehorn reality into his own worldview...
Others might feel more strongly. You can bet on which year Starmer is replaced.
2022 13.5
2023 8
2024 or later 1.17
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.183324545
Starmer even said he was not sure whether Durham was within the rules! The rules he voted for!
But there's a bigger point here: the rules were in place to delay the virus' spread. Do you think the virus cared if the people from many different places were congregating for a meal and drinks after campaigning or at Number 10? Do you think the virus said: "Oh, it's all within the rules?"
Of course not. The Durham mess was avoidable and wrong. Campaign by all means, but the meal, drinks and getting pi**ed was stupid and showed contempt for those of us who tried to follow the rules, just as the No. 10 events did.
The next Tory hustings is today in Eastbourne but then there is nothing until Tuesday, so today might be the last chance to influence those members who return their votes on receipt.
https://twitter.com/xenasolo/status/1555167248679157763
When Starmer becomes PM, he will face problems with not following the rules.
https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1555282122830745602
IN state Rep. Engleman (R) introduces an amendment to eliminate rape and incest exceptions in the new anti-abortion bill. Rep. Fleming (D) asks if that would prevent a 5th grader (10-year-old) rape victim from getting abortion care.
Engelman sighs: "It... It does."…
… IN state Rep. Davisson (R) argues for requiring forced birth of non-viable fetuses.
Asked what he would tell children of a mother going through pregnancy resulting in stillbirth: "[None] of us are guaranteed tomorrow. We must accept death as a consequence of life."
There was also polling suggesting that a number of those opposed to abortion bans nonetheless thought voting a waste of time.
I wonder how much the Kansas vote will have changed that.
Might have to get a Smarkets account, since Betfair doesn’t seem to have governor race markets up yet.
Come on people, when do the rest of us plebs get to find out?
BBC News - Growth in NHS recruits from abroad prompts concern about over-reliance
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61230287
Meanwhile Q1 was the worst quarter for early departures in recent times, up 50% on any of the last 5 years. I reckon Q2 will be even higher.
https://twitter.com/goldstone_tony/status/1554861073085464578?t=X4P0-oE4VzZ482LSsJ_UKQ&s=19
The way the tax and pension rules intersect mean that I should probably take early retirement myself, rather than in ten years time as I intended.
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/08/04/standing-up-for-the-oppressed
The guide’s main argument is simple: in both wars, its authors claim, Russia was “dragged” into a military conflict by Western countries. The West, they explain, regularly starts wars due to its “colonial aspirations,” while Russia has repeatedly been forced to take part in the West’s conflicts in order to defend its “brotherly peoples”; after all, Russia “doesn’t abandon its own” and “stands up for the oppressed.” In 1914, for example, the Russian Empire “couldn’t forsake” Serbia…
… The document then asserts that Russia's role is exclusively peaceful. It claims that the Russian authorities tried to tamp down the conflict in myriad ways before the war, but that “the U.S. turned Ukraine into the front line in the West’s confrontation against Russia” — and Russia “was forced to launch the SVO [special military operation].”…
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/03/taiwan-nancy-pelosi-visit-ukraine-us
… These are the same uncertainties that overwhelmed European diplomacy in 1914. Rulers dithered while generals strutted and rattled sabres. Flags flew and newspapers filled with tallies of weaponry. Negotiations slithered into ultimatums. As the frontline pleaded for help, woe betide anyone who preached compromise….
I didn’t vote for Liz.
Amnesty’s secretary general tweeted this yesterday afternoon, and has yet to respond the any of the Ukrainian replies.
https://twitter.com/AgnesCallamard/status/1555234095982149632
Ukrainian and Russian social media mobs and trolls: they are all at it today attacking @amnesty investigations. This is called war propaganda, disinformation, misinformation. This wont dent our impartiality and wont change the facts.
Mr. Eagles, did you cast in a write-in vote for David Cameron?
Kyrsten Sinema has agreed to support the Schumer Manchin deal after some minor changes were made to the tax section of that .
There’s a good chance that both Putin and Xi only have one more Auld Lang Syne in them before being internally displaced.
“The west is blighted by weakened and failing leaders, striving to boost their ratings by promoting conflicts abroad.”
Promoting conflict in Ukraine surely came from the wise eastern bloc autocrat who rolled thousands of tanks into a sovereign nation.
In Taiwan he completely misunderstands the play. It’s all about early signalling and deterrence to prevent the other oh so wise eastern bloc autocrat starting a new conflict. The response we have seen in recent days is about face, not a prelude to China initiating a global war it could never hope to win.
I could go on.
It may not be the best line for the Kremlin to follow.
*arguably Romania too.
Heard this really good cover of it a couple of years ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fiShsfvbFUA
Then saw that Hanson are still a thing - this is their Tiny Desk concert
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rb4tXqPI7NU
And now realise that I missed their BEER - called MMMHOPS
https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1555223313223487488
Amnesty accuses Ukrainian armed forces of putting civilians at risk. This is a grave accusation that Russians and their Western assets will undoubtedly pick up. But civilians live everywhere, even in war zones. Very often they are reluctant to leave even if asked repeatedly…
Periods of warm sunshine and showers. We're a truly blessed country.
I don't think this is at all likely.
Oh well thing can only improve from here
Have a “like”
https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/03/latest-news-on-russias-war-on-ukraine/
So it isn't all pro-Russia. And whilst that article makes an important point it does seem rather one-sided and unrealistic.
Rishi 2 (John O and TSE)
Liz 0
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-prices-rebound-after-dropping-lowest-months-weak-us-demand-2022-08-04/
I mean, I expected Twitterers to be, well, twats about it, but surely the cooler heads of PB can see that Ukrainians ain’t whiter than white?
Apparently not.
War makes people stupid.
So assuming that Mistress Liz wins the big job, she will take office with a cabinet largely compromised of Boris ringers, the economic sky literally falling in on people's heads, and a mandate from Tory members to make them hurt badly.
That 20 point Labour lead demanded by Jezbollah fans might actually happen.
Yes, war crimes will be committed by both sides - the Ukrainians are not all angels. But there are stark differences: the Russians are clearly the aggressors, and everything that happens can be traced back to their decision to invade. And it also appears that, instead of being rogue elements, criminal behaviour by Russian troops appears to be condoned, or even part of their system.
The worst aspect of the Amnesty report is that it would make fighting the war impossible for Ukraine...
So it's more than slightly unfair to criticise them for it and really does play into the narrative of vlad 'no sexual issues at all' Putin that they're the bad guys and he's 'liberating' Ukraine from them.
Let's just remember, Ukraine was wantonly attacked for no reason at all other than Putin's need to compensate for being a shit ruler. If people are concerned about civilian casualties, the correct thing to do is to keep hammering away at Russia to withdraw their army at which point the problem resolves itself. Not to criticise the Ukrainians for trying to protect themselves under appallingly difficult conditions from a genocidal lunatic.
I've no doubt that in the fog of war, no one is whiter than white. However, Russia has form stretching back quite a while. If Putin told me it was Friday today, I'd check the calendar. The bonbing of the maternity hospital was a classic. Labrov and the Russian representative to the UN gave contradictory explanations at the same time.
If you're going to lie, do it in co-ordination.
But your key word is "slapped". Too many times we have seen Tory cabinet ministers literally revelling in the misery of people - enjoying the effects of having slapped people harder and harder.
Mistress Liz knows the power of a well-applied slap. If she really is continuity Boris but with less competence we will see her and the cabinet slap the suffering again and again and again. It's *their* fault they are unable to pay leccy bills bigger than their wages - why didn't they get a better job?
All Starmer and Labour have to do to achieve some cut through is give a shit. And this is where the delicate balance with regards to strikers hasn't been found. Yes I said that more people are less sympathetic to striking union dinosaurs than are, and that feels right at the moment. But it won't be for long. Starmer needs to understand that...
That’s what has sent people mental.
Not that there should be a windfall tax on Tory donors you understand, that would be bad.
Amnesty, of all people, should not have been taken for patsies. Especially given the amount of time they have spent campaigning on behalf of political prisoners in Russia.
Don't bring emotion into it. The BBC loves nothing more than an emotion-driven news report. Most journalists are the same. "Anyone here been raped and speaks English?"
Ukraine's Azov Regiment is balls out neo Nazi and probably at least as nasty as the Wagner guys, if you want some balance. But Amnesty's new rule of warfare, that an attacking army automatically takes a city because putting troops in to defend it is a war crime, is so startlingly novel that I would hope even you would notice.
Never seen what was wrong with or funny about that question (except the last 3 words are logically superfluous), and however you look at it it is asking for fact, not emotion.
1) Write in for Dave.
2) Write 'Michael Masi is an utter Mark Reckless who deserves a red hot poker up his arse.'
3) Reluctantly vote for Rishi.
In May the @ukhomeoffice awarded tech co @wearebuddi a £6m contract to produce facial recognition watches, which will track location 24/7.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/05/facial-recognition-smartwatches-to-be-used-to-monitor-foreign-offenders-in-uk
Edit - In any case, Masi would be a great choice. He'd make sure the person in second came first, which is what we need right now both in this ballot and at the GE.
Given the supposed lead she has amongst the Tories, you might have thought that she should be attempting to be less a politician and more stateswomanlike.
Nope, not our Liz, the same populist contempt for experts and a demonstrable ignorance of any thing else that has been the Tory mantra for at least a decade. Reality does not care about Tory delusions so I expect the next two years to be a complete mess as the Tories struggle to get to grips with the scale of their own policy failures.
Pity that the price is going to be paid by UK PLC and the damage, in many cases, will be permanent. She has not even kissed hands yet, and already she looks like a failure in the making.
I want him to live a long life haunted and mocked for this despicable decision for Abu Dhabi.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0d7c0a3a-1407-11ed-b7ce-9b24bf628db2?shareToken=cb224de340ea5a3165760a7e0a5ffb69
Sometime we will find the dividing line between what is true, and what is Russian Government talking points, or online campaigns by their propagandists / useful idiots.
eg https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/truth-or-fake/20220519-no-despite-online-insistence-this-azov-fighters-wife-is-not-a-neo-nazi-sympathiser
https://www.mirror.co.uk/tech/apple-accused-racism-after-face-11735152
so not a runner despite the considerable cost savings associated with all Apple products