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Could Tory members tell us when they get their packs? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited August 7 in General
imageCould Tory members tell us when they get their packs? – politicalbetting.com

We do know that the mailing of ballot packs has been put back a bit and it would be useful to know when voting actually starts.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,680
    Betfair next prime minister
    1.13 Liz Truss 88%
    8.4 Rishi Sunak 12%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.13 Liz Truss 88%
    8.4 Rishi Sunak 12%
  • vikvik Posts: 157
    Smarkets have a market on the Florida governor race, with DeSantis on 1.09 & Crist on 12.5.

    This could be one to watch. Last time (in 2018) De Santis barely managed to win with 49.6% against 49.2% for a relatively weak Dem candidate (Andrew Gillum).

    Charlie Crist is a significantly stronger candidate, being a former Republican and a former Governor, although the environment for Dems right now is a lot more unfavourable than 2018.

    Still, there is a possibility that a backlash driven by the SC abortion ruling might be enough to cause problems for DeSantis, specially with a moderate Dem opponent & in a relatively purple state.

    The last DeSantis vs Crist poll was in Feb & had DeSantis a whopping 21 points ahead, but earlier polls had the margin a lot closer (between 6 to 8 points).

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/fl/florida_governor_desantis_vs_crist-7324.html
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,680
    edited August 5
    On topic, someone already posted a picture of the ballot paper earlier this week. Can't remember who, although I did wonder if the strange numbers shown represented a security risk or were harmless. ETA fao @MikeSmithson

    ETA it was @JohnO yesterday
    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4058793#Comment_4058793
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,680
    OT Three types of long covid:-

    One group experiences neurological symptoms including fatigue, brain fog and headache, which most often affect those who contracted the virus when the Alpha and Delta variants were most prevalent, according to experts at King's College London.

    A second group suffers from respiratory issues, including chest pain and severe shortness of breath, which could point to lung damage.

    These symptoms were common among those infected during the first wave of the pandemic.

    The final group is grappling with a diverse range of symptoms including heart palpitations, muscle ache and pain, and changes in skin and hair.

    https://news.sky.com/story/three-types-of-long-covid-each-with-different-symptoms-researchers-say-12663531
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 46,350
    vik said:

    Smarkets have a market on the Florida governor race, with DeSantis on 1.09 & Crist on 12.5.

    This could be one to watch. Last time (in 2018) De Santis barely managed to win with 49.6% against 49.2% for a relatively weak Dem candidate (Andrew Gillum).

    Charlie Crist is a significantly stronger candidate, being a former Republican and a former Governor, although the environment for Dems right now is a lot more unfavourable than 2018.

    Still, there is a possibility that a backlash driven by the SC abortion ruling might be enough to cause problems for DeSantis, specially with a moderate Dem opponent & in a relatively purple state.

    The last DeSantis vs Crist poll was in Feb & had DeSantis a whopping 21 points ahead, but earlier polls had the margin a lot closer (between 6 to 8 points).

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/fl/florida_governor_desantis_vs_crist-7324.html

    @HYUFD has been of the opinion that this is a close fight for some time. I have been sceptical, but... I do wonder. Florida is extremely pro-Choice; Florida's Republican legislature has passed an *extremely* restrictive anti-abortion law; and DeSantis has chosen to suspend a prosecutor who has said he won't prosecute those accused of abortion offences.

    We have seen from Kansas that abortion can be a great motivator. Twenty percent of voters came out just to vote in the referendum.

    I'd take 12.5 on Crist. Heck; I might take 8s or higher.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,795
    So big-brained lawyer Starmer could not follow the rules *eight* times?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62431183

    The one thing he is supposed to have is competence. As an big-brained lawyer, he should be able to follow the same rules that the vast majority of MPs successfully do.

    Breaking the same rues Boris was found to have broken four years ago...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,680
    edited August 5

    So big-brained lawyer Starmer could not follow the rules *eight* times?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62431183

    The one thing he is supposed to have is competence. As an big-brained lawyer, he should be able to follow the same rules that the vast majority of MPs successfully do.

    Breaking the same rues Boris was found to have broken four years ago...

    As suggested on the last thread, these late update breaches are so common that you have to wonder if there is not something wrong with the administrative process. Otoh, you also have to wonder why Starmer, Boris and the humble backbencher for Dunny-on-the-Wold cannot simply delegate a staff member to handle the bureaucracy. ETA although that seems to be what Starmer is claiming happened.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62431183
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,795
    It seems the report by Amnesty (which I defended yesterday) is rather controversial within the organisation:

    https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1555280431561560064
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,795

    So big-brained lawyer Starmer could not follow the rules *eight* times?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62431183

    The one thing he is supposed to have is competence. As an big-brained lawyer, he should be able to follow the same rules that the vast majority of MPs successfully do.

    Breaking the same rues Boris was found to have broken four years ago...

    As suggested on the last thread, these late update breaches are so common that you have to wonder if there is not something wrong with the administrative process. Otoh, you also have to wonder why Starmer, Boris and the humble backbencher for Dunny-on-the-Wold cannot simply delegate a staff member to handle the bureaucracy. ETA although that seems to be what Starmer is claiming happened.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62431183
    Sorry, didn't see it on the last thread.

    It's no excuse. Starmer's USP is one of boring competence. It turns out that whilst he is boring, he isn't competent. If we were to go back to the relevant threads, were you so 'understanding' when Johnson broke them?

    Here's a little hint for him: if he wants to avoid these problems, then he simply should not accept £1k+ tickets to a football match. especially as they also make him look utterly out of touch...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,795

    So big-brained lawyer Starmer could not follow the rules *eight* times?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62431183

    The one thing he is supposed to have is competence. As an big-brained lawyer, he should be able to follow the same rules that the vast majority of MPs successfully do.

    Breaking the same rues Boris was found to have broken four years ago...

    As suggested on the last thread, these late update breaches are so common that you have to wonder if there is not something wrong with the administrative process. Otoh, you also have to wonder why Starmer, Boris and the humble backbencher for Dunny-on-the-Wold cannot simply delegate a staff member to handle the bureaucracy. ETA although that seems to be what Starmer is claiming happened.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62431183
    Edit: and I see it was *you* who suggested it. As a matter of interest, what data do you have to base that statement on? How widespread are such breaches?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,680

    So big-brained lawyer Starmer could not follow the rules *eight* times?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62431183

    The one thing he is supposed to have is competence. As an big-brained lawyer, he should be able to follow the same rules that the vast majority of MPs successfully do.

    Breaking the same rues Boris was found to have broken four years ago...

    As suggested on the last thread, these late update breaches are so common that you have to wonder if there is not something wrong with the administrative process. Otoh, you also have to wonder why Starmer, Boris and the humble backbencher for Dunny-on-the-Wold cannot simply delegate a staff member to handle the bureaucracy. ETA although that seems to be what Starmer is claiming happened.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62431183
    Edit: and I see it was *you* who suggested it. As a matter of interest, what data do you have to base that statement on? How widespread are such breaches?
    No data, just the impression of having seen this sketch before with different MPs, and that there seems to be no motive when something is published a couple of weeks later than it should have been. It all points to cock-up rather than conspiracy, and repeated cock-ups imply friction in the process.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,795

    So big-brained lawyer Starmer could not follow the rules *eight* times?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62431183

    The one thing he is supposed to have is competence. As an big-brained lawyer, he should be able to follow the same rules that the vast majority of MPs successfully do.

    Breaking the same rues Boris was found to have broken four years ago...

    As suggested on the last thread, these late update breaches are so common that you have to wonder if there is not something wrong with the administrative process. Otoh, you also have to wonder why Starmer, Boris and the humble backbencher for Dunny-on-the-Wold cannot simply delegate a staff member to handle the bureaucracy. ETA although that seems to be what Starmer is claiming happened.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62431183
    Edit: and I see it was *you* who suggested it. As a matter of interest, what data do you have to base that statement on? How widespread are such breaches?
    No data, just the impression of having seen this sketch before with different MPs, and that there seems to be no motive when something is published a couple of weeks later than it should have been. It all points to cock-up rather than conspiracy, and repeated cock-ups imply friction in the process.
    Were you this understanding when it came to Johnson when he was done for it?

    Besides, that misses the point. Starmer is supposed to be better than this. He is supposed to be competent. Yet when it comes to Durham, or free gifts, he is incompetent.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,146
    I haven't received mine yet.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,795

    I haven't received mine yet.

    It'll be a real problem if I was to get one... ;)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,795
    This is from a couple of months ago,. It would be hilarious if people really did not think this way:

    "The World Needs Russia to Win the Conflict in Ukraine. Here’s Why?"

    https://medium.com/statecraft-and-global-affairs/the-world-needs-russia-to-win-the-conflict-in-ukraine-heres-why-c4e8ec9c82e9

    In which he ignores vast tracts of history and facts in order to shoehorn reality into his own worldview...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,795

    So big-brained lawyer Starmer could not follow the rules *eight* times?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62431183

    The one thing he is supposed to have is competence. As an big-brained lawyer, he should be able to follow the same rules that the vast majority of MPs successfully do.

    Breaking the same rues Boris was found to have broken four years ago...

    As suggested on the last thread, these late update breaches are so common that you have to wonder if there is not something wrong with the administrative process. Otoh, you also have to wonder why Starmer, Boris and the humble backbencher for Dunny-on-the-Wold cannot simply delegate a staff member to handle the bureaucracy. ETA although that seems to be what Starmer is claiming happened.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62431183
    Edit: and I see it was *you* who suggested it. As a matter of interest, what data do you have to base that statement on? How widespread are such breaches?
    No data, just the impression of having seen this sketch before with different MPs, and that there seems to be no motive when something is published a couple of weeks later than it should have been. It all points to cock-up rather than conspiracy, and repeated cock-ups imply friction in the process.
    So you don't feel the same about the lockdown 'parties'?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 46,350

    This is from a couple of months ago,. It would be hilarious if people really did not think this way:

    "The World Needs Russia to Win the Conflict in Ukraine. Here’s Why?"

    https://medium.com/statecraft-and-global-affairs/the-world-needs-russia-to-win-the-conflict-in-ukraine-heres-why-c4e8ec9c82e9

    In which he ignores vast tracts of history and facts in order to shoehorn reality into his own worldview...

    Jesus Christ, that's deluded nonsense.
  • RobCLRobCL Posts: 20
    My voting pack arrived yesterday.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,680

    So big-brained lawyer Starmer could not follow the rules *eight* times?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62431183

    The one thing he is supposed to have is competence. As an big-brained lawyer, he should be able to follow the same rules that the vast majority of MPs successfully do.

    Breaking the same rues Boris was found to have broken four years ago...

    As suggested on the last thread, these late update breaches are so common that you have to wonder if there is not something wrong with the administrative process. Otoh, you also have to wonder why Starmer, Boris and the humble backbencher for Dunny-on-the-Wold cannot simply delegate a staff member to handle the bureaucracy. ETA although that seems to be what Starmer is claiming happened.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62431183
    Edit: and I see it was *you* who suggested it. As a matter of interest, what data do you have to base that statement on? How widespread are such breaches?
    No data, just the impression of having seen this sketch before with different MPs, and that there seems to be no motive when something is published a couple of weeks later than it should have been. It all points to cock-up rather than conspiracy, and repeated cock-ups imply friction in the process.
    Were you this understanding when it came to Johnson when he was done for it?

    Besides, that misses the point. Starmer is supposed to be better than this. He is supposed to be competent. Yet when it comes to Durham, or free gifts, he is incompetent.
    False equivalence much? Durham was always within the rules, unless you believe Starmer's offer to fall on his sword was an especially noble thing. On MPs' freebies, yes, maybe to avoid even the faintest suspicion of corruption, it would have been better to decline. But your own link has the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards describing Starmer's delays in reporting as "minor and/or inadvertent" with "no attempt to mislead".

    Others might feel more strongly. You can bet on which year Starmer is replaced.
    2022 13.5
    2023 8
    2024 or later 1.17
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.183324545
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,146
    FPT - last night's debate will have no effect on the contest.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,680

    So big-brained lawyer Starmer could not follow the rules *eight* times?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62431183

    The one thing he is supposed to have is competence. As an big-brained lawyer, he should be able to follow the same rules that the vast majority of MPs successfully do.

    Breaking the same rues Boris was found to have broken four years ago...

    As suggested on the last thread, these late update breaches are so common that you have to wonder if there is not something wrong with the administrative process. Otoh, you also have to wonder why Starmer, Boris and the humble backbencher for Dunny-on-the-Wold cannot simply delegate a staff member to handle the bureaucracy. ETA although that seems to be what Starmer is claiming happened.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62431183
    Edit: and I see it was *you* who suggested it. As a matter of interest, what data do you have to base that statement on? How widespread are such breaches?
    No data, just the impression of having seen this sketch before with different MPs, and that there seems to be no motive when something is published a couple of weeks later than it should have been. It all points to cock-up rather than conspiracy, and repeated cock-ups imply friction in the process.
    So you don't feel the same about the lockdown 'parties'?
    I've no idea what you are on about here, and I'm not really sure I care. Boris was FPN'd for one party. If you think he should have been done for all of them, perhaps you are right but it is of academic interest. What might be of betting interest is Rishi Sunak's FPN if this were to become a factor in the Tory leadership race but has anyone on Team Truss even mentioned it?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,795

    So big-brained lawyer Starmer could not follow the rules *eight* times?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62431183

    The one thing he is supposed to have is competence. As an big-brained lawyer, he should be able to follow the same rules that the vast majority of MPs successfully do.

    Breaking the same rues Boris was found to have broken four years ago...

    As suggested on the last thread, these late update breaches are so common that you have to wonder if there is not something wrong with the administrative process. Otoh, you also have to wonder why Starmer, Boris and the humble backbencher for Dunny-on-the-Wold cannot simply delegate a staff member to handle the bureaucracy. ETA although that seems to be what Starmer is claiming happened.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62431183
    Edit: and I see it was *you* who suggested it. As a matter of interest, what data do you have to base that statement on? How widespread are such breaches?
    No data, just the impression of having seen this sketch before with different MPs, and that there seems to be no motive when something is published a couple of weeks later than it should have been. It all points to cock-up rather than conspiracy, and repeated cock-ups imply friction in the process.
    Were you this understanding when it came to Johnson when he was done for it?

    Besides, that misses the point. Starmer is supposed to be better than this. He is supposed to be competent. Yet when it comes to Durham, or free gifts, he is incompetent.
    False equivalence much? Durham was always within the rules, unless you believe Starmer's offer to fall on his sword was an especially noble thing. On MPs' freebies, yes, maybe to avoid even the faintest suspicion of corruption, it would have been better to decline. But your own link has the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards describing Starmer's delays in reporting as "minor and/or inadvertent" with "no attempt to mislead".

    (Snip)
    There's zero 'false' equivalence there.

    Starmer even said he was not sure whether Durham was within the rules! The rules he voted for!

    But there's a bigger point here: the rules were in place to delay the virus' spread. Do you think the virus cared if the people from many different places were congregating for a meal and drinks after campaigning or at Number 10? Do you think the virus said: "Oh, it's all within the rules?"

    Of course not. The Durham mess was avoidable and wrong. Campaign by all means, but the meal, drinks and getting pi**ed was stupid and showed contempt for those of us who tried to follow the rules, just as the No. 10 events did.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,680

    FPT - last night's debate will have no effect on the contest.

    There were two things of note right at the end when the audience gave the verdict to Rishi, and said they'd not yet received their ballot papers (and online voting details). It suggests Rishi is gaining momentum as the voting packs are going out.

    The next Tory hustings is today in Eastbourne but then there is nothing until Tuesday, so today might be the last chance to influence those members who return their votes on receipt.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,795
    An interesting reaction form a Ukrainian about the Amnesty report:
    https://twitter.com/xenasolo/status/1555167248679157763
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,795
    Here's a prediction:

    When Starmer becomes PM, he will face problems with not following the rules.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,396
    Republican politicians do seem determined to insist on the most hard line abortion laws, despite evidence that a significant number of their ‘pro life’ supporters are uncomfortable with it.

    https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1555282122830745602
    IN state Rep. Engleman (R) introduces an amendment to eliminate rape and incest exceptions in the new anti-abortion bill. Rep. Fleming (D) asks if that would prevent a 5th grader (10-year-old) rape victim from getting abortion care.

    Engelman sighs: "It... It does."…

    … IN state Rep. Davisson (R) argues for requiring forced birth of non-viable fetuses.

    Asked what he would tell children of a mother going through pregnancy resulting in stillbirth: "[None] of us are guaranteed tomorrow. We must accept death as a consequence of life."


    There was also polling suggesting that a number of those opposed to abortion bans nonetheless thought voting a waste of time.
    I wonder how much the Kansas vote will have changed that.

    Might have to get a Smarkets account, since Betfair doesn’t seem to have governor race markets up yet.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,301

    An interesting reaction form a Ukrainian about the Amnesty report:
    https://twitter.com/xenasolo/status/1555167248679157763

    In what way is it “interesting”? I only ask because i’m reading the word to mean “unexpected/thought provoking/“. I mean it’s clearly absolutely 100% bang on the money. The report is a disgrace and only serves to aid Russia.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,795
    alex_ said:

    An interesting reaction form a Ukrainian about the Amnesty report:
    https://twitter.com/xenasolo/status/1555167248679157763

    In what way is it “interesting”? I only ask because i’m reading the word to mean “unexpected/thought provoking/“. I mean it’s clearly absolutely 100% bang on the money. The report is a disgrace and only serves to aid Russia.
    Well, it was 'interesting' to me. If you read yesterday morning's thread, I somewhat defended the Amnesty report, although I also mentioned some of the things that lady mentions. Threads such as the one I liked to are causing me to alter my view.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,432

    alex_ said:

    An interesting reaction form a Ukrainian about the Amnesty report:
    https://twitter.com/xenasolo/status/1555167248679157763

    In what way is it “interesting”? I only ask because i’m reading the word to mean “unexpected/thought provoking/“. I mean it’s clearly absolutely 100% bang on the money. The report is a disgrace and only serves to aid Russia.
    Well, it was 'interesting' to me. If you read yesterday morning's thread, I somewhat defended the Amnesty report, although I also mentioned some of the things that lady mentions. Threads such as the one I liked to are causing me to alter my view.
    If the thread is right that the Ukrainian office wasn’t shown the report and their concerns were ignored that’s a pretty serious matter. As in, the report should be disowned and the person who published it sacked.

  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,438
    Finland! Exciting! Mums the word!

    Come on people, when do the rest of us plebs get to find out?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,520
    Percentage of British doctors declines again.

    BBC News - Growth in NHS recruits from abroad prompts concern about over-reliance
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61230287

    Meanwhile Q1 was the worst quarter for early departures in recent times, up 50% on any of the last 5 years. I reckon Q2 will be even higher.

    https://twitter.com/goldstone_tony/status/1554861073085464578?t=X4P0-oE4VzZ482LSsJ_UKQ&s=19

    The way the tax and pension rules intersect mean that I should probably take early retirement myself, rather than in ten years time as I intended.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,396
    ‘Standing up for the oppressed’ The Kremlin’s newest propaganda guide suggests likening Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to the First World War

    https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/08/04/standing-up-for-the-oppressed
    The guide’s main argument is simple: in both wars, its authors claim, Russia was “dragged” into a military conflict by Western countries. The West, they explain, regularly starts wars due to its “colonial aspirations,” while Russia has repeatedly been forced to take part in the West’s conflicts in order to defend its “brotherly peoples”; after all, Russia “doesn’t abandon its own” and “stands up for the oppressed.” In 1914, for example, the Russian Empire “couldn’t forsake” Serbia…
    … The document then asserts that Russia's role is exclusively peaceful. It claims that the Russian authorities tried to tamp down the conflict in myriad ways before the war, but that “the U.S. turned Ukraine into the front line in the West’s confrontation against Russia” — and Russia “was forced to launch the SVO [special military operation].”…
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,396
    No direct connection, of course, but from the Jenkins article from a couple of days back.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/03/taiwan-nancy-pelosi-visit-ukraine-us
    … These are the same uncertainties that overwhelmed European diplomacy in 1914. Rulers dithered while generals strutted and rattled sabres. Flags flew and newspapers filled with tallies of weaponry. Negotiations slithered into ultimatums. As the frontline pleaded for help, woe betide anyone who preached compromise….
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,301

    alex_ said:

    An interesting reaction form a Ukrainian about the Amnesty report:
    https://twitter.com/xenasolo/status/1555167248679157763

    In what way is it “interesting”? I only ask because i’m reading the word to mean “unexpected/thought provoking/“. I mean it’s clearly absolutely 100% bang on the money. The report is a disgrace and only serves to aid Russia.
    Well, it was 'interesting' to me. If you read yesterday morning's thread, I somewhat defended the Amnesty report, although I also mentioned some of the things that lady mentions. Threads such as the one I liked to are causing me to alter my view.
    Thanks for clarifying.

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,680
    Foxy said:

    Percentage of British doctors declines again.

    BBC News - Growth in NHS recruits from abroad prompts concern about over-reliance
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61230287

    Meanwhile Q1 was the worst quarter for early departures in recent times, up 50% on any of the last 5 years. I reckon Q2 will be even higher.

    https://twitter.com/goldstone_tony/status/1554861073085464578?t=X4P0-oE4VzZ482LSsJ_UKQ&s=19

    The way the tax and pension rules intersect mean that I should probably take early retirement myself, rather than in ten years time as I intended.

    Do keep up. Liz Truss said in yesterday's debate that the pension rules would be fixed.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,146

    FPT - last night's debate will have no effect on the contest.

    There were two things of note right at the end when the audience gave the verdict to Rishi, and said they'd not yet received their ballot papers (and online voting details). It suggests Rishi is gaining momentum as the voting packs are going out.

    The next Tory hustings is today in Eastbourne but then there is nothing until Tuesday, so today might be the last chance to influence those members who return their votes on receipt.
    That hugely depends on how that audience sample was selected, how big the undecideds were proportionate to those who are not, whether they were genuinely undecided and how they were affected by the dynamics in the room.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 102,795
    edited August 5
    I got mine yesterday.

    I didn’t vote for Liz.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,301
    Nigelb said:

    No direct connection, of course, but from the Jenkins article from a couple of days back.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/03/taiwan-nancy-pelosi-visit-ukraine-us
    … These are the same uncertainties that overwhelmed European diplomacy in 1914. Rulers dithered while generals strutted and rattled sabres. Flags flew and newspapers filled with tallies of weaponry. Negotiations slithered into ultimatums. As the frontline pleaded for help, woe betide anyone who preached compromise….

    Some of the stuff written about the war in Ukraine really pushes one’s commitment to free speech to breaking point.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,396
    ydoethur said:

    alex_ said:

    An interesting reaction form a Ukrainian about the Amnesty report:
    https://twitter.com/xenasolo/status/1555167248679157763

    In what way is it “interesting”? I only ask because i’m reading the word to mean “unexpected/thought provoking/“. I mean it’s clearly absolutely 100% bang on the money. The report is a disgrace and only serves to aid Russia.
    Well, it was 'interesting' to me. If you read yesterday morning's thread, I somewhat defended the Amnesty report, although I also mentioned some of the things that lady mentions. Threads such as the one I liked to are causing me to alter my view.
    If the thread is right that the Ukrainian office wasn’t shown the report and their concerns were ignored that’s a pretty serious matter. As in, the report should be disowned and the person who published it sacked.

    It appears to come from the top. Sacking an underling would not now be an appropriate response.

    Amnesty’s secretary general tweeted this yesterday afternoon, and has yet to respond the any of the Ukrainian replies.

    https://twitter.com/AgnesCallamard/status/1555234095982149632
    Ukrainian and Russian social media mobs and trolls: they are all at it today attacking @amnesty investigations. This is called war propaganda, disinformation, misinformation. This wont dent our impartiality and wont change the facts.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,301

    I got mine yesterday.

    I didn’t vote for Liz.

    Spoiled ballot now that you’re likely on the list for mandatory re-education?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,396

    FPT - last night's debate will have no effect on the contest.

    There were two things of note right at the end when the audience gave the verdict to Rishi, and said they'd not yet received their ballot papers (and online voting details). It suggests Rishi is gaining momentum as the voting packs are going out.

    The next Tory hustings is today in Eastbourne but then there is nothing until Tuesday, so today might be the last chance to influence those members who return their votes on receipt.
    That hugely depends on how that audience sample was selected, how big the undecideds were proportionate to those who are not, whether they were genuinely undecided and how they were affected by the dynamics in the room.
    And how many members were watching.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,145
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Eagles, did you cast in a write-in vote for David Cameron?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,040
    Hanging up my hopepipe...no rain in sight.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,432

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Eagles, did you cast in a write-in vote for David Cameron?

    For Christian Horner, shurely?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 1,742
    The week just got even worse for the GOP .

    Kyrsten Sinema has agreed to support the Schumer Manchin deal after some minor changes were made to the tax section of that .
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,438
    alex_ said:

    Nigelb said:

    No direct connection, of course, but from the Jenkins article from a couple of days back.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/03/taiwan-nancy-pelosi-visit-ukraine-us
    … These are the same uncertainties that overwhelmed European diplomacy in 1914. Rulers dithered while generals strutted and rattled sabres. Flags flew and newspapers filled with tallies of weaponry. Negotiations slithered into ultimatums. As the frontline pleaded for help, woe betide anyone who preached compromise….

    Some of the stuff written about the war in Ukraine really pushes one’s commitment to free speech to breaking point.
    “The eastern bloc is led by two autocrats, internally secure but paranoid about their borders.”

    There’s a good chance that both Putin and Xi only have one more Auld Lang Syne in them before being internally displaced.

    “The west is blighted by weakened and failing leaders, striving to boost their ratings by promoting conflicts abroad.”

    Promoting conflict in Ukraine surely came from the wise eastern bloc autocrat who rolled thousands of tanks into a sovereign nation.

    In Taiwan he completely misunderstands the play. It’s all about early signalling and deterrence to prevent the other oh so wise eastern bloc autocrat starting a new conflict. The response we have seen in recent days is about face, not a prelude to China initiating a global war it could never hope to win.

    I could go on.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,520
    Nigelb said:

    ‘Standing up for the oppressed’ The Kremlin’s newest propaganda guide suggests likening Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to the First World War

    https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/08/04/standing-up-for-the-oppressed
    The guide’s main argument is simple: in both wars, its authors claim, Russia was “dragged” into a military conflict by Western countries. The West, they explain, regularly starts wars due to its “colonial aspirations,” while Russia has repeatedly been forced to take part in the West’s conflicts in order to defend its “brotherly peoples”; after all, Russia “doesn’t abandon its own” and “stands up for the oppressed.” In 1914, for example, the Russian Empire “couldn’t forsake” Serbia…
    … The document then asserts that Russia's role is exclusively peaceful. It claims that the Russian authorities tried to tamp down the conflict in myriad ways before the war, but that “the U.S. turned Ukraine into the front line in the West’s confrontation against Russia” — and Russia “was forced to launch the SVO [special military operation].”…

    Of course Tsarist Russia "standing up for oppressed Serbia" was a total military, economic and political disaster for Russia. The only one of the major allies to be defeated militarily, surrender*, and to lose territory.

    It may not be the best line for the Kremlin to follow.

    *arguably Romania too.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 3,350
    FPT
    Jonathan said:

    Is it inappropriate to like cheesy 90s pop like mmmbop by Hanson?

    @Jonathan

    Heard this really good cover of it a couple of years ago
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fiShsfvbFUA

    Then saw that Hanson are still a thing - this is their Tiny Desk concert
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rb4tXqPI7NU

    And now realise that I missed their BEER - called MMMHOPS

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,396
    Interesting thread on the Amnesty report.

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1555223313223487488
    Amnesty accuses Ukrainian armed forces of putting civilians at risk. This is a grave accusation that Russians and their Western assets will undoubtedly pick up. But civilians live everywhere, even in war zones. Very often they are reluctant to leave even if asked repeatedly…
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,432
    edited August 5
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    alex_ said:

    An interesting reaction form a Ukrainian about the Amnesty report:
    https://twitter.com/xenasolo/status/1555167248679157763

    In what way is it “interesting”? I only ask because i’m reading the word to mean “unexpected/thought provoking/“. I mean it’s clearly absolutely 100% bang on the money. The report is a disgrace and only serves to aid Russia.
    Well, it was 'interesting' to me. If you read yesterday morning's thread, I somewhat defended the Amnesty report, although I also mentioned some of the things that lady mentions. Threads such as the one I liked to are causing me to alter my view.
    If the thread is right that the Ukrainian office wasn’t shown the report and their concerns were ignored that’s a pretty serious matter. As in, the report should be disowned and the person who published it sacked.

    It appears to come from the top. Sacking an underling would not now be an appropriate response.

    Amnesty’s secretary general tweeted this yesterday afternoon, and has yet to respond the any of the Ukrainian replies.

    https://twitter.com/AgnesCallamard/status/1555234095982149632
    Ukrainian and Russian social media mobs and trolls: they are all at it today attacking @amnesty investigations. This is called war propaganda, disinformation, misinformation. This wont dent our impartiality and wont change the facts.
    TBF, she could still be sacked. I wouldn't employ a secretary who can't spell.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 5,670
    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread on the Amnesty report.

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1555223313223487488
    Amnesty accuses Ukrainian armed forces of putting civilians at risk. This is a grave accusation that Russians and their Western assets will undoubtedly pick up. But civilians live everywhere, even in war zones. Very often they are reluctant to leave even if asked repeatedly…

    Amnesty seems to be saying you can't defend urban areas, and should seek to meet your enemy in the open. To be fair, an attitude that may have made some sense in Napoleon's time. In modern warfare - you shouldn't seek to defend yourself against an aggressive, brutal, genocidal invasion.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,105
    edited August 5
    A very pleasant wet week in Merseyside again. My rain barrel is overflowing. The middle of July was merely a hot interval, and as expected, once the kids break up, we have the,usual wet Britsh summer.

    Periods of warm sunshine and showers. We're a truly blessed country.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 8,829
    moonshine said:

    Finland! Exciting! Mums the word!

    Come on people, when do the rest of us plebs get to find out?

    Is it really? If it’s so juicy why hasn’t it leaked somewhere beyond the reach of a U.K. super injunction?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,301
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    alex_ said:

    An interesting reaction form a Ukrainian about the Amnesty report:
    https://twitter.com/xenasolo/status/1555167248679157763

    In what way is it “interesting”? I only ask because i’m reading the word to mean “unexpected/thought provoking/“. I mean it’s clearly absolutely 100% bang on the money. The report is a disgrace and only serves to aid Russia.
    Well, it was 'interesting' to me. If you read yesterday morning's thread, I somewhat defended the Amnesty report, although I also mentioned some of the things that lady mentions. Threads such as the one I liked to are causing me to alter my view.
    If the thread is right that the Ukrainian office wasn’t shown the report and their concerns were ignored that’s a pretty serious matter. As in, the report should be disowned and the person who published it sacked.

    It appears to come from the top. Sacking an underling would not now be an appropriate response.

    Amnesty’s secretary general tweeted this yesterday afternoon, and has yet to respond the any of the Ukrainian replies.

    https://twitter.com/AgnesCallamard/status/1555234095982149632
    Ukrainian and Russian social media mobs and trolls: they are all at it today attacking @amnesty investigations. This is called war propaganda, disinformation, misinformation. This wont dent our impartiality and wont change the facts.
    TBF, she could still be sacked. I wouldn't employ a secretary who can't spell.
    Implicitly she is also discrediting local Amnesty operations everywhere by saying they are incapable of being impartial observers in their own countries, requiring "independent" investigations from on high to "research" and issue reports. The whole thing stinks and is a disgrace.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 3,350
    The release of that Amnesty article could make sense. Iff they're about to release a much, much longer report detailing Russian atrocities which concludes that the Ukrainians have had no choice but to defend as they have. It would be much harder for people to say they were biased against Russia.

    I don't think this is at all likely.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,795

    Talking of 90s pop. I have been kicked out of my role as lead singer for the D ream tribute band as I kept forgetting the lyrics.

    Oh well thing can only improve from here

    "Things may be slightly less sh*t...."
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,146
    Nigelb said:

    FPT - last night's debate will have no effect on the contest.

    There were two things of note right at the end when the audience gave the verdict to Rishi, and said they'd not yet received their ballot papers (and online voting details). It suggests Rishi is gaining momentum as the voting packs are going out.

    The next Tory hustings is today in Eastbourne but then there is nothing until Tuesday, so today might be the last chance to influence those members who return their votes on receipt.
    That hugely depends on how that audience sample was selected, how big the undecideds were proportionate to those who are not, whether they were genuinely undecided and how they were affected by the dynamics in the room.
    And how many members were watching.
    And whether they reached the same conclusion.
  • pingping Posts: 2,442

    Talking of 90s pop. I have been kicked out of my role as lead singer for the D ream tribute band as I kept forgetting the lyrics.

    Oh well thing can only improve from here

    That was particularly good, BJO!

    Have a “like”
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,795

    The release of that Amnesty article could make sense. Iff they're about to release a much, much longer report detailing Russian atrocities which concludes that the Ukrainians have had no choice but to defend as they have. It would be much harder for people to say they were biased against Russia.

    I don't think this is at all likely.

    I looked on their website yesterday, and there is a lot of criticism of Russia on there. e.g.:
    https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/03/latest-news-on-russias-war-on-ukraine/

    So it isn't all pro-Russia. And whilst that article makes an important point it does seem rather one-sided and unrealistic.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,550
    Votes counted so far

    Rishi 2 (John O and TSE)
    Liz 0
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,795
    " Global oil prices dropped on Thursday to their lowest levels since before Russia's February invasion of Ukraine, as traders fretted over the possibility of an economic recession later this year that could torpedo energy demand."

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-prices-rebound-after-dropping-lowest-months-weak-us-demand-2022-08-04/
  • pingping Posts: 2,442
    I do find peoples reaction to the Amnesty report rather depressing.

    I mean, I expected Twitterers to be, well, twats about it, but surely the cooler heads of PB can see that Ukrainians ain’t whiter than white?

    Apparently not.

    War makes people stupid.

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 19,803
    Morning all! I see the morning papers are full of horror after the BofE (eventually) released its catastrofuck predictions yesterday.

    So assuming that Mistress Liz wins the big job, she will take office with a cabinet largely compromised of Boris ringers, the economic sky literally falling in on people's heads, and a mandate from Tory members to make them hurt badly.

    That 20 point Labour lead demanded by Jezbollah fans might actually happen.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,795
    ping said:

    I do find peoples reaction to the Amnesty report rather depressing.

    I mean, I expected Twitterers to be, well, twats about it, but surely the cooler heads of PB can see that Ukrainians ain’t whiter than white?

    Apparently not.

    War makes people stupid.

    I might suggest you read my post about it yesterday morning. ;)

    Yes, war crimes will be committed by both sides - the Ukrainians are not all angels. But there are stark differences: the Russians are clearly the aggressors, and everything that happens can be traced back to their decision to invade. And it also appears that, instead of being rogue elements, criminal behaviour by Russian troops appears to be condoned, or even part of their system.

    The worst aspect of the Amnesty report is that it would make fighting the war impossible for Ukraine...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,520

    Morning all! I see the morning papers are full of horror after the BofE (eventually) released its catastrofuck predictions yesterday.

    So assuming that Mistress Liz wins the big job, she will take office with a cabinet largely compromised of Boris ringers, the economic sky literally falling in on people's heads, and a mandate from Tory members to make them hurt badly.

    That 20 point Labour lead demanded by Jezbollah fans might actually happen.

    The flaw in the plan is the lack of alternative that Starmer presents: Tory policies, but with a face like a slapped arse.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,432
    ping said:

    I do find peoples reaction to the Amnesty report rather depressing.

    I mean, I expected Twitterers to be, well, twats about it, but surely the cooler heads of PB can see that Ukrainians ain’t whiter than white?

    Apparently not.

    War makes people stupid.

    I don't think anyone expects the Ukrainians to be 'whiter than white'. The issue is that they don't have a lot of choice about putting weapons next to civilians, the main criticism in that report, if the civilians refuse to leave and the Russians keep advancing.

    So it's more than slightly unfair to criticise them for it and really does play into the narrative of vlad 'no sexual issues at all' Putin that they're the bad guys and he's 'liberating' Ukraine from them.

    Let's just remember, Ukraine was wantonly attacked for no reason at all other than Putin's need to compensate for being a shit ruler. If people are concerned about civilian casualties, the correct thing to do is to keep hammering away at Russia to withdraw their army at which point the problem resolves itself. Not to criticise the Ukrainians for trying to protect themselves under appallingly difficult conditions from a genocidal lunatic.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 2,822

    So big-brained lawyer Starmer could not follow the rules *eight* times?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62431183

    The one thing he is supposed to have is competence. As an big-brained lawyer, he should be able to follow the same rules that the vast majority of MPs successfully do.

    Breaking the same rues Boris was found to have broken four years ago...

    As suggested on the last thread, these late update breaches are so common that you have to wonder if there is not something wrong with the administrative process. Otoh, you also have to wonder why Starmer, Boris and the humble backbencher for Dunny-on-the-Wold cannot simply delegate a staff member to handle the bureaucracy. ETA although that seems to be what Starmer is claiming happened.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62431183
    Sorry, didn't see it on the last thread.

    It's no excuse. Starmer's USP is one of boring competence. It turns out that whilst he is boring, he isn't competent. If we were to go back to the relevant threads, were you so 'understanding' when Johnson broke them?

    Here's a little hint for him: if he wants to avoid these problems, then he simply should not accept £1k+ tickets to a football match. especially as they also make him look utterly out of touch...
    I am just shocked that a single ticket for a Watford game costs about the same as my season ticket for St Mirren.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,105
    Mr Ping,

    I've no doubt that in the fog of war, no one is whiter than white. However, Russia has form stretching back quite a while. If Putin told me it was Friday today, I'd check the calendar. The bonbing of the maternity hospital was a classic. Labrov and the Russian representative to the UN gave contradictory explanations at the same time.

    If you're going to lie, do it in co-ordination.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,432

    Talking of 90s pop. I have been kicked out of my role as lead singer for the D ream tribute band as I kept forgetting the lyrics.

    Oh well thing can only improve from here

    Could have been worse. You might have been unable to get the words out due to a Starmer.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 19,803
    Foxy said:

    Morning all! I see the morning papers are full of horror after the BofE (eventually) released its catastrofuck predictions yesterday.

    So assuming that Mistress Liz wins the big job, she will take office with a cabinet largely compromised of Boris ringers, the economic sky literally falling in on people's heads, and a mandate from Tory members to make them hurt badly.

    That 20 point Labour lead demanded by Jezbollah fans might actually happen.

    The flaw in the plan is the lack of alternative that Starmer presents: Tory policies, but with a face like a slapped arse.
    We all know that this far in there is little that can be done - it is far too late to do anything substantial.

    But your key word is "slapped". Too many times we have seen Tory cabinet ministers literally revelling in the misery of people - enjoying the effects of having slapped people harder and harder.

    Mistress Liz knows the power of a well-applied slap. If she really is continuity Boris but with less competence we will see her and the cabinet slap the suffering again and again and again. It's *their* fault they are unable to pay leccy bills bigger than their wages - why didn't they get a better job?

    All Starmer and Labour have to do to achieve some cut through is give a shit. And this is where the delicate balance with regards to strikers hasn't been found. Yes I said that more people are less sympathetic to striking union dinosaurs than are, and that feels right at the moment. But it won't be for long. Starmer needs to understand that...
  • pingping Posts: 2,442

    ping said:

    I do find peoples reaction to the Amnesty report rather depressing.

    I mean, I expected Twitterers to be, well, twats about it, but surely the cooler heads of PB can see that Ukrainians ain’t whiter than white?

    Apparently not.

    War makes people stupid.

    I might suggest you read my post about it yesterday morning. ;)

    Yes, war crimes will be committed by both sides - the Ukrainians are not all angels. But there are stark differences: the Russians are clearly the aggressors, and everything that happens can be traced back to their decision to invade. And it also appears that, instead of being rogue elements, criminal behaviour by Russian troops appears to be condoned, or even part of their system.

    The worst aspect of the Amnesty report is that it would make fighting the war impossible for Ukraine...
    I think, actually, the thing that’s really wound people up is that Russia has attempted to weaponise the report.

    That’s what has sent people mental.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,520

    So big-brained lawyer Starmer could not follow the rules *eight* times?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62431183

    The one thing he is supposed to have is competence. As an big-brained lawyer, he should be able to follow the same rules that the vast majority of MPs successfully do.

    Breaking the same rues Boris was found to have broken four years ago...

    As suggested on the last thread, these late update breaches are so common that you have to wonder if there is not something wrong with the administrative process. Otoh, you also have to wonder why Starmer, Boris and the humble backbencher for Dunny-on-the-Wold cannot simply delegate a staff member to handle the bureaucracy. ETA although that seems to be what Starmer is claiming happened.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62431183
    Sorry, didn't see it on the last thread.

    It's no excuse. Starmer's USP is one of boring competence. It turns out that whilst he is boring, he isn't competent. If we were to go back to the relevant threads, were you so 'understanding' when Johnson broke them?

    Here's a little hint for him: if he wants to avoid these problems, then he simply should not accept £1k+ tickets to a football match. especially as they also make him look utterly out of touch...
    I am just shocked that a single ticket for a Watford game costs about the same as my season ticket for St Mirren.
    It was a hospitality box for 4 people.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,018

    Talking of 90s pop. I have been kicked out of my role as lead singer for the D ream tribute band as I kept forgetting the lyrics.

    Oh well thing can only improve from here

    "Things may be slightly less sh*t...."
    SKS'S winning slogan
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 19,803

    " Global oil prices dropped on Thursday to their lowest levels since before Russia's February invasion of Ukraine, as traders fretted over the possibility of an economic recession later this year that could torpedo energy demand."

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-prices-rebound-after-dropping-lowest-months-weak-us-demand-2022-08-04/

    A realistic prospect of prices going rapidly into reverse as the global economy disappears up the swanny. Punters are already hugely suspicious as to why the collapse in wholesale prices hasn't seen pump prices follow. Just watch the same writ large if crude prices really spiral downwards and the oil companies accidentally continue to make record profits whilst not dropping pump prices.

    Not that there should be a windfall tax on Tory donors you understand, that would be bad.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,432
    edited August 5
    ping said:

    ping said:

    I do find peoples reaction to the Amnesty report rather depressing.

    I mean, I expected Twitterers to be, well, twats about it, but surely the cooler heads of PB can see that Ukrainians ain’t whiter than white?

    Apparently not.

    War makes people stupid.

    I might suggest you read my post about it yesterday morning. ;)

    Yes, war crimes will be committed by both sides - the Ukrainians are not all angels. But there are stark differences: the Russians are clearly the aggressors, and everything that happens can be traced back to their decision to invade. And it also appears that, instead of being rogue elements, criminal behaviour by Russian troops appears to be condoned, or even part of their system.

    The worst aspect of the Amnesty report is that it would make fighting the war impossible for Ukraine...
    I think, actually, the thing that’s really wound people up is that Russia has attempted to weaponise the report.

    That’s what has sent people mental.
    Which was an entirely foreseeable unforeseen contingency.

    Amnesty, of all people, should not have been taken for patsies. Especially given the amount of time they have spent campaigning on behalf of political prisoners in Russia.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 16,848
    stjohn said:

    Votes counted so far

    Rishi 2 (John O and TSE)
    Liz 0

    Stop the count!
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,105
    Mr Pioneers,

    Don't bring emotion into it. The BBC loves nothing more than an emotion-driven news report. Most journalists are the same. "Anyone here been raped and speaks English?"
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 19,448
    ping said:

    I do find peoples reaction to the Amnesty report rather depressing.

    I mean, I expected Twitterers to be, well, twats about it, but surely the cooler heads of PB can see that Ukrainians ain’t whiter than white?

    Apparently not.

    War makes people stupid.

    Truly dim. Did you wake up and think Hey, I'll cement my position as a free thinking contrarian this a.m?

    Ukraine's Azov Regiment is balls out neo Nazi and probably at least as nasty as the Wagner guys, if you want some balance. But Amnesty's new rule of warfare, that an attacking army automatically takes a city because putting troops in to defend it is a war crime, is so startlingly novel that I would hope even you would notice.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,432

    stjohn said:

    Votes counted so far

    Rishi 2 (John O and TSE)
    Liz 0

    Stop the count!
    Which of them are you comparing to Dracula?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 19,448
    CD13 said:

    Mr Pioneers,

    Don't bring emotion into it. The BBC loves nothing more than an emotion-driven news report. Most journalists are the same. "Anyone here been raped and speaks English?"

    Please don't you start that not quoting thing. Bad manners.

    Never seen what was wrong with or funny about that question (except the last 3 words are logically superfluous), and however you look at it it is asking for fact, not emotion.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 43,777

    " Global oil prices dropped on Thursday to their lowest levels since before Russia's February invasion of Ukraine, as traders fretted over the possibility of an economic recession later this year that could torpedo energy demand."

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-prices-rebound-after-dropping-lowest-months-weak-us-demand-2022-08-04/

    A realistic prospect of prices going rapidly into reverse as the global economy disappears up the swanny. Punters are already hugely suspicious as to why the collapse in wholesale prices hasn't seen pump prices follow. Just watch the same writ large if crude prices really spiral downwards and the oil companies accidentally continue to make record profits whilst not dropping pump prices.

    Not that there should be a windfall tax on Tory donors you understand, that would be bad.
    There is a little bit of a price war in Dundee at the moment but diesel is currently about 15p a litre less than it was at the peak.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 19,803
    CD13 said:

    Mr Pioneers,

    Don't bring emotion into it. The BBC loves nothing more than an emotion-driven news report. Most journalists are the same. "Anyone here been raped and speaks English?"

    Will be hard to keep emotion out of the economy disastrofuck this winter. People are going to die. The press will lap up these emotional horror stories of granny freezing to death, especially the newspapers who have directly championed the politics that made it happen.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 102,795

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Eagles, did you cast in a write-in vote for David Cameron?

    This was my order of preference.

    1) Write in for Dave.

    2) Write 'Michael Masi is an utter Mark Reckless who deserves a red hot poker up his arse.'

    3) Reluctantly vote for Rishi.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,105
    Labrov stated at the beginning of the 'special operation' that the Russians weren't concerned with the rest of the world's views. As long as the domestic market approved. Strangely enough, I think that was a lie too.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,697
    🚨Scoop: From autumn, migrants will be required to scan their faces on smartwatches up to five times a day.

    In May the @ukhomeoffice awarded tech co @wearebuddi a £6m contract to produce facial recognition watches, which will track location 24/7.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/05/facial-recognition-smartwatches-to-be-used-to-monitor-foreign-offenders-in-uk
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,432
    edited August 5

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Eagles, did you cast in a write-in vote for David Cameron?

    This was my order of preference.

    1) Write in for Dave.

    2) Write 'Michael Masi is an utter Mark Reckless who deserves a red hot poker up his arse.'

    3) Reluctantly vote for Rishi.
    When I said that you'd be making these death threats Masi received, I didn't expect to be proved right quite so quickly!

    Edit - In any case, Masi would be a great choice. He'd make sure the person in second came first, which is what we need right now both in this ballot and at the GE.
  • TazTaz Posts: 5,426
    Scott_xP said:

    🚨Scoop: From autumn, migrants will be required to scan their faces on smartwatches up to five times a day.

    In May the @ukhomeoffice awarded tech co @wearebuddi a £6m contract to produce facial recognition watches, which will track location 24/7.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/05/facial-recognition-smartwatches-to-be-used-to-monitor-foreign-offenders-in-uk

    FFS. What a waste of time and money.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 1,282
    Another day, another load of tripe on the economy being spouted by Liz Truss. Her comments that the massive disruption identified by the BoE MPC can be *avoided* by her badly structured and mistimed tax cuts are pure self delusion.

    Given the supposed lead she has amongst the Tories, you might have thought that she should be attempting to be less a politician and more stateswomanlike.

    Nope, not our Liz, the same populist contempt for experts and a demonstrable ignorance of any thing else that has been the Tory mantra for at least a decade. Reality does not care about Tory delusions so I expect the next two years to be a complete mess as the Tories struggle to get to grips with the scale of their own policy failures.

    Pity that the price is going to be paid by UK PLC and the damage, in many cases, will be permanent. She has not even kissed hands yet, and already she looks like a failure in the making.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 102,795
    Scott_xP said:

    🚨Scoop: From autumn, migrants will be required to scan their faces on smartwatches up to five times a day.

    In May the @ukhomeoffice awarded tech co @wearebuddi a £6m contract to produce facial recognition watches, which will track location 24/7.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/05/facial-recognition-smartwatches-to-be-used-to-monitor-foreign-offenders-in-uk

    The government is wasting money, they should have partnered up with Apple.
  • pingping Posts: 2,442
    edited August 5
    For anyone interested in the goings on over at predictit, this mornings “star spangle gamblers” podcast is a must-listen.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 102,795
    ydoethur said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Eagles, did you cast in a write-in vote for David Cameron?

    This was my order of preference.

    1) Write in for Dave.

    2) Write 'Michael Masi is an utter Mark Reckless who deserves a red hot poker up his arse.'

    3) Reluctantly vote for Rishi.
    When I said that you'd be making these death threats Masi received, I didn't expect to be proved right quite so quickly!

    Edit - In any case, Masi would be a great choice. He'd make sure the person in second came first, which is what we need right now both in this ballot and at the GE.
    I have never sent a death threat to Michael Masi.

    I want him to live a long life haunted and mocked for this despicable decision for Abu Dhabi.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,697
    The mandarin class are right - as I have been banging on about for some weeks - an early election is underpriced

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0d7c0a3a-1407-11ed-b7ce-9b24bf628db2?shareToken=cb224de340ea5a3165760a7e0a5ffb69
  • MattWMattW Posts: 14,440
    IshmaelZ said:

    ping said:

    I do find peoples reaction to the Amnesty report rather depressing.

    I mean, I expected Twitterers to be, well, twats about it, but surely the cooler heads of PB can see that Ukrainians ain’t whiter than white?

    Apparently not.

    War makes people stupid.

    Truly dim. Did you wake up and think Hey, I'll cement my position as a free thinking contrarian this a.m?

    Ukraine's Azov Regiment is balls out neo Nazi and probably at least as nasty as the Wagner guys, if you want some balance. But Amnesty's new rule of warfare, that an attacking army automatically takes a city because putting troops in to defend it is a war crime, is so startlingly novel that I would hope even you would notice.
    "Balls out Neo-Nazi"? Heavily overegged, I think.

    Sometime we will find the dividing line between what is true, and what is Russian Government talking points, or online campaigns by their propagandists / useful idiots.

    eg https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/truth-or-fake/20220519-no-despite-online-insistence-this-azov-fighters-wife-is-not-a-neo-nazi-sympathiser
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,432
    Scott_xP said:

    The mandarin class are right - as I have been banging on about for some weeks - an early election is underpriced

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0d7c0a3a-1407-11ed-b7ce-9b24bf628db2?shareToken=cb224de340ea5a3165760a7e0a5ffb69

    I hope the mandarins are right, so the government can be sactsuma.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,294

    CD13 said:

    Mr Pioneers,

    Don't bring emotion into it. The BBC loves nothing more than an emotion-driven news report. Most journalists are the same. "Anyone here been raped and speaks English?"

    Will be hard to keep emotion out of the economy disastrofuck this winter. People are going to die. The press will lap up these emotional horror stories of granny freezing to death, especially the newspapers who have directly championed the politics that made it happen.
    There will also be some groups of people, those opposed to the government or perhaps big fans of EU membership, who will come across as happy to be revelling at the misery of others, in order to make their own political point.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,145
    F1: Betfair has a winner without Verstappen title market. Not really got going yet but worth considering.

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 19,448

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨Scoop: From autumn, migrants will be required to scan their faces on smartwatches up to five times a day.

    In May the @ukhomeoffice awarded tech co @wearebuddi a £6m contract to produce facial recognition watches, which will track location 24/7.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/05/facial-recognition-smartwatches-to-be-used-to-monitor-foreign-offenders-in-uk

    The government is wasting money, they should have partnered up with Apple.
    All them foreigners looks the same to Apple, purpose-defeatingly

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/tech/apple-accused-racism-after-face-11735152

    so not a runner despite the considerable cost savings associated with all Apple products
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,432

    F1: Betfair has a winner without Verstappen title market. Not really got going yet but worth considering.

    Er...call me dense but would people be betting on?
This discussion has been closed.