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Another reason why Boris Johnson had to go – politicalbetting.com
Another reason why Boris Johnson had to go – politicalbetting.com
While some Tories are calling for Boris Johnson to remain PM, for fear that his successors will prove less popular, his ratings are worse than Truss and Sunak among both the general public and those voters the party is currently losing https://t.co/maOxw3GRHN pic.twitter.com/CV7lXfdhFp
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Betfair next prime minister
1.21 Liz Truss 83%
5.8 Rishi Sunak 17%
Next Conservative leader
1.18 Liz Truss 85%
6.4 Rishi Sunak 16%
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/27/uk-will-seen-racist-tories-reject-rishi-sunak-warns-donor/
“Britain will be seen as “racist” if Rishi Sunak loses the Tory leadership election, a Conservative donor has said.
“Lord Ranger, the founder of Sun Mark, a supply and distribution firm, urged the party to ensure a “watershed moment” in politics by making Mr Sunak the first British Asian prime minister.
“He said he was supporting Mr Sunak because he considered him the best candidate and warned of reputational consequences for the Conservatives if party members opted for Liz Truss instead.
““If people reject him, it will be a bad name for the party and the country because this will be perceived as racist,” Lord Ranger told Bharat Tak, an Indian news network.”
The report describes as "perverse" the decision to cut the number of troops in the regular army from 82,000 to 73,000
Planned cuts to the British military leave it vulnerable at a time of rising threat, a report from MPs says.
The Commons defence select committee report says flaws in a major defence review have been exposed by the Ukraine war and the return of the Taliban.
It adds the Ministry of Defence appears arrogant and unwilling to learn lessons by refusing to revise its plans.
The MoD said it would adapt its "strategy and response to meet emerging threats and challenges".
The Integrated Defence and Security review, published in March 2021, was completed before Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Nato's withdrawal from Afghanistan.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-62327524
Its this wonderful positivity that makes our politics so much fun. But it is also indicative that a Tory recovery under a leader who is not Boris remains possible.
Keir Starmer -12
Liz Truss -47
Rishi Sunak -48
The Oaf -68
(YouGov; 10-24 July)
For comparison:
Net favourability:
Nicola Sturgeon +15
Anas Sarwar +3
Keir Starmer 0
Alex Cole-Hamilton -11
Patrick Harvie -11
Lorna Slater -11
Douglas Ross -26
Rishi Sunak -28
UK govt -51
Alex Salmond -61
The Oaf -62
(Savanta ComRes; 23-28 June)
Starmer’s and especially Sunak’s popularity has absolutely plummeted in Scotland. Not difficult to surmise why.
How on earth would they be able to take on Poland, or Germany, or even France before they got near us? It is frankly ludicrous. We need the extra troops not to protect the UK, which is not under conventional threat at all, but to honour our obligations to our NATO allies, specifically the Baltic states. If we reduce our numbers as planned sustaining any kind of force for an extended period in the Baltic states would, with rotations, become extremely difficult.
I think that Truss will win by a clear margin, and for other reasons than racial prejudice, so am now backing the 65%+ band, currently at 8 on Smarkets.
Truss 1.18
Sunak 6.2
Looks like punters think this is all done and dusted. Hard to disagree with them. Con VI in 12 months time is going to be hilarious, especially in northern England, Scotland and Wales. That’s when the blind panic will set in. Stock up on popcorn.
Secondly, the greatest threat is not from the status quo, but from an isolationist US President taking office in January 2025, and pulling out of NATO. We need a plan for collective European defence in the absence of the US.
Even if the US remains in NATO they will want to focus attention on China and the Pacific. So we could do with being able to defend Europe without their help.
Rishi Sunak has edge over Liz Truss with swing voters
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/07/27/rishi-sunak-has-edge-over-liz-truss-swing-voters
OTOH since it's their fault they're getting Johnson in a skirt, my sympathy is - limited.
I don’t think the problem for the Scottish Tories is the person in charge in London, it is the entire culture within the English Conservative Party: they have stopped caring about the Union. Openly mocking Scots and Scotland is perfectly accepted routine behaviour. Those who do truly care about the Union need to halt that trend, and fast.
Wasn't it obvious from the start that Starmer wouldn't stick to the pledges he was making to placate hard left members? To start with most of those members would quickly become former members, so pledges to people who left the party in disgust at your election don't count for much.
And it is wider than that. Starmer was obviously and pointedly telling them what they wanted to hear rather than what he actually thought. He didn't believe in the stuff he was pledging as anyone with eyes and a brain could see.
So why is Jones so ANGRY? Because apparently he thought Starmer was being sincere. Only a fool learns to get fooled. And Jones is a prize fool. His "get out there, get in his face, tell him what you think" is a dangerous incitement.
Over half the electorate think the most consequential decision we made in the last decade was wrong, but is practically irreversible.
We have no industrial strategy worth the name.
We postponed for decades decisions on energy which might have saved us from the worst if the current mess.
Out health, education and criminal justice systems are in pretty poor shape.
And neither government nor the official opposition have much to say that addresses any of the above.
Which new Tory leader fills you with hope ?
And don’t forget that approx 1/3 of SLab voters are pro-independence. So 52% + 7% = bloody close to your 60% figure.
But by all means, continue to be complacent.
They generate a lot of noise for very little expense.
(Note, I am not saying that all their crowd-funded income comes from dodgy sources, or any of it - just that they'd be ideal targets for it.)
Until hydrocarbon fuels normalise, the war in Ukraine and Russia sanctions are over, and post covid supply chains recover we will have inflation. In the meantime suppressing workers wages and adding mortgage rate increases just piles on the misery and runs the risk of an unnecessarily sharp downturn in the economy.
https://mobile.twitter.com/martinmbauer/status/1552218006083747840
It seems strange that Starmer and Reeves can openly speak against Labour policy without punishment but Tarry cannot.
But yes, you are of course correct: a small, but significant, number of SNP and Green voters are not pro-independence. But they are hardly diehard Unionists either! This is where the BetterTogether2 parties are making their key error: they continually address core No voters and ignore the soft centre.
I agree that people should get pay rises in line with inflation as a minimum. But how Labour balances this off against people who see uppity unions and think "wankers" is a real problem. Remember though that Tarry wasn't sacked for his position on pay. It was for his position on claiming to be Shadow SofS and making up his own personal pay policy on the spot.
How many SNP voters are there who are voting for Sturgeon, but wouldn't vote for Independence?
However, your Con Maj 2.22 is waaaay too short. The economic shit has yet to hit the fan, and when it does the Tories are going to get all the blame.
NOM looks like a shoo in. Barring… events dear boy.
Off topic I admit but can anyone explain to me why the BBCNews has gone "Over the top" with regard to the women's football? Entertaining I grant you but why is it so often top of the bill?
If she does I expect it to command broad public support.
The free market works brilliantly at efficiently allocating resources and stimulating production and distribution, competitively, in normal times but if we get to the stage where we have a highly constrained supply and it costs households over £500 a month then we'll be in a bidding war where the wealthiest will be able to carry on as normal, at a very high cost, whilst a lot of ordinary people freeze.
That can't be allowed to happen.
Much as you might disagree with some of these people, they're a vital part of our democratic process.
It's potentially catastrophic to Rishi's campaign and may have cost him my vote.
Their argument is that the men’s team qualifying for a major final would be top of the news, so they should do the same for the women’s team.
Truss can stage a recovery simply by replacing Boris and moving Conservative non-voters and don't knows back into the Conservative column.
The rest will need to be based on performance and how she leads.
I think that could happen in the run up to a referendum.
The rise and rise of English national self-awareness. One of the intelligentsia’s most under-commented cultural phenomena of the age.
More usually foreign states influence policy by buying newspapers, other media, creating sock puppet think tanks, party donations via intermediaries and even bunga bunga parties at Italian castles. That is where scrutiny of foreign manipulation of our politics should be, not on whether I bung Led by Donkeys another purple drinking voucher.
You are right to highlight what looks like it is going to be a very serious crisis this winter. Under Johnson the Tories big problem was that the demonstrated they didn't believe there was a problem, and that they didn't care if people were struggling. If Truss can change even the latter its a step forward for them.
I don't use gas so I have no idea how they would ration supplies. If prices are going to be as insane as suggested then it may not be rationing by supply that happens but rationing by price.
Quite simply we need to do what some other governments do. Impose a subsidised tariff on the energy companies. Even if that is only for the bottom 20% of household incomes it would make a huge difference. Will cost the government money, but so will the riots and deaths that will happen if they don't.
The only question is whether the pain is felt through a general, and hopefully one off, rise in prices or through nominal pay cuts. I think the former is better for a number of reasons, but that sadly doesn't stop it being painful to many people.
I think that's a perfectly consistent position, but worth bearing in mind when we consider leaving the EU as a material reason for Indyref2.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-62290696
Cumbria County Council is being abolished next year. It seems to me that's a good time to hit total reset on their social services by hiring new ones only from outside.
It's cheap to put on, and it makes the BBC feel superior.
I've dipped in and out and it's reasonably entertaining. They don''t fall on the floor so much, which is a big plus.
However, the commentators refuse to point out any errors. Two of the England goals against Sweden were massive goalkeeper mistakes. Had they been men, they would have analysed over and over. Probably sympathetically ... he won't be happy with that etc, but no one seemed keen to point it out at all.
Is that your impression too SD?
The limited pool of Unionist voters simply drifting between parties is not going to change the big picture: in the long run there are simply too few of them. Unionists need to make the Union more popular, and they never make the slightest effort in that direction. Quite the opposite in fact.
Just Sinema to go.
Did not se that coming.
https://twitter.com/trentconsultant/status/1549648965204951041?t=DOyHTk-kEk4p99QqrO1OoQ&s=19
That is West Wing level fantasy politics shit.
Because all politics is relative, and for most voters only between two parties, this could be unbalanced easily by some proper old fashioned Labour internal wars.
See for example
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/labour/2022/07/keir-starmers-sacking-of-sam-tarry-threatens-a-new-labour-civil-war
Apparently you cannot understand the people and be PM if wearing expensive shoes - sadly she wasn’t asked if someone who spaffs thousands on wallpaper etc is in touch. She admitted she has expensive shoes so not suitable as PM. Good to see the party of aspiration wearing its hair-shirt…
Apparently the Treasury is terrible as it stands in the way of Truss-onomics but the Treasury, sorry the Govt is amazing for giving people cash to help with energy costs.
I wonder if the wider public will be very sympathetic?
SLab VI in last 10 Scottish full-sample polls (reverse chronological order):
23
25
23
22
24
26
27
22
18
20
Lab Maj is screwed unless Anas Sarwar can consistently start scoring 30+, preferably 35+
He’s miles off that, and going the wrong way. Starmer’s idiotic Muscular Unionism stance of the past 3 months has been a catastrophic shot in his own foot.
That might be a result of a second referendum still feeling a bit unlikely, but I reckon the chunk of voters in the middle will be much larger next time round.
One problem some of the modern Conservative Party has is they think 'what would Thatcher do c.1983?' and apply that to any and every problem for the rest of time.
It's a form of dogma. You can be idealistic about the free market just as you can be idealistic about nationalisation and common ownership.
My view of conservatism is based on pragmatism and realism.
In times of war and highly constrained supply to ensure the population survives you may need to ration - that doesn't mean it's fun, nor something you want to retain a moment more than needed, but we aren't far off that point now.
In normal times rationing would constrain supply, deliver a lower quality of life (basic needs only), lead to poor customer service, limited to no innovation, and be economically inefficient, so I'd absolutely favour the free market.
But we're approaching an emergency situation now and we can't have a situation where only 20-25% of the population can afford to hear their homes whilst everyone else freezes.
But there's also a dangerous groupthink that 'we're doing what's best for children so we must be right and if people disagree with us they're wrong and evil.' A bit like OFSTED, only with much more serious consequences as people only listen to OSFTED when they talk sense (which they can do) whereas they have to listen to social services on anything. You see it in this case - where clearly the paperwork wasn't done and somebody made dud choices on a hurried basis to meet targets, and is now lying to cover themselves - and in cases like @Dura_Ace 's when Social Services made fools of themselves by saying in so many words they had the power to take those two orphans he and his wife are looking after into care.
It's not great. But whether it's great or not, that story is clearly well beyond ordinary incompetence.
Manchin (and Sinema, we'll get back to that in a bit) convinced McConnell that reconciliation was dead. Biden and Schumer have spent months wailing and gnashing teeth about what a big meanio Manchin has been
A couple of hours after passing CHIPS+ Manchin and Schumer host a joint statement that reconciliation is still on baby with most of the good stuff in it.
All on the anniversary of John McCain sinking Trump/McConnell's attempt at repealing Obamacare.
Of course Sinema can still sink this but as far as I know she's never been the sole Dem to vote against something in the Senate.
That may be what loyal Conservatives want, much like a child who must never find out that Mr Sunffles is in fact the third guinea pig of that name.
But it's unlikely to fool swing voters for long.
A view shared by a good few in BBC sports.