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The second coming of Boris Johnson? – politicalbetting.com
The second coming of Boris Johnson? – politicalbetting.com
Convinced of his popularity with the party grassroots and the wider public, a rejuvenated Boris Johnson is letting it be known that he’d love another run at the top jobhttps://t.co/xZrGuUPZbJ
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Interesting market. May lay Starmer... or not.
But first, to the F1 markets!
My question is about why Liz Truss is still priced at around 1.56 on Betfair, when her lead over Sunak in membership polls is so overwhelming ?
Yougov has her ahead 49% vs 31%. The last ConHome survey also had her ahead by 49% vs 42%.
A US presidential candidate ahead by this much would be a prohibitive favourite & priced at no higher than something like 1.10 or 1.15 ? Both Yougov & ConHome also appear to have excellent records of predicting the actual result.
So, why is Liz still priced at 1.56 ? Am I missing something, e.g. Truss withdrawing for some reason ? Why do the betting markets still think that Sunak has a good chance of defeating Truss ?
I understand that Sunak has a chance of showing he's a better debater, but usually debates don't often result in a massive turn-around in a candidate's fortunes, and most electors have usually already made up their minds before debates.
It may be memories of when Cameron and Davis went to the membership. I think Cameron was behind then but turned it around to win convincingly. It could also be that on most scores Sunak does well (interview/debate performances, coming across as likeable, apparently persuasive in person).
Back Truss
Betting Post:F1: https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2022/07/france-pre-race-2022.html
Heroically, I've (again) backed Perez at 12 each way (third the odds top 2) to win. Also backed both Haas cars to win their respective groups as both showed good pace in qualifying but are out of position.
Did age preclude him coming a third time, or did Carrie just get bored?
Maybe that's an F1 thing. I suppose Truss is unlikely to have a pair of shoes blow up mid-race.
It’s more likely that Truss is such a weirdo that (a) there’s a high chance of her doing something mind-blowingly stupid and ruling herself out and (b) nobody can quite believe the membership are going to be quite so stupid as to elect her plus (c) Sunak still has a clear lead among MPs which punters think may sway the members.
In party primaries, it's much more common to see a big change in support than in General Elections.
Last night I had an experience (tm). On three occasions over the last ten or so years, I have eaten rich, dark chocolate at a restaurant and almost immediately become ill. In one case before I finished the pudding, I feel nauseous (though I am never sick), and light-headed. About half an hour to two hours later, I start shivering and shaking and become disoriented. My BP is relatively normal, as are my oxygen levels. In all cases I had had either no alcohol with the meal, or small amounts.
It happened again last night. We were out for a meal with my parents, and Mrs J and I had a very delicious dark chocolate pudding. I was too unwell to drive home, and went straight to bed. Apparently I started shaking violently - Mrs J said it was like a fit - whilst I was asleep, which I cannot remember. I am absolutely fine this morning.
I eat various rich foods on occasion, but it only seems to be dark chocolate puddings that cause it, especially at good restaurants (the one we were at last night is in the 'Top 50 Gastropubs 2022'). Am I allergic to large restaurant bills?
I've had a couple of diabetes tests during that time, and they show no problems. Has anyone any idea what else it might be, or experienced similar? I *think* I'm fairly fit and healthy.
Given a choice of all 8 candidates, members voted:
Truss 13%
Sunak 11%
Other 6 candidates / Don't Know 76%
So, very few members strongly support Truss or Sunak - implying many may be susceptible to switching.
Finally the Truss/Sunak polls we do have were either taken when there were 3 candidates left or within hours of it going down to 2 candidates. We really need a poll taken about now to get a view once things had started to settle down.
Edit - well, presumably not if it was just last night, but are you going to?
I've learnt to generally avoid rich chocolate, but last night we forgot whilst ordering, because it happens so rarely. And I can eat cheap rich chocolate puddings to my heart's content, and positively guzzle milk chocolate. My working hypothesis is that it is be an ingredient good restaurants use. But as I'm not a cook, I've got no idea if that makes sense.
Mr Jessop, that sounds extremely alarming not only for yourself but for Mrs J! I would endorse the good doctors question and add one of my own; was it the same restaurant on both occasions? I certainly think you should seek medical advice as soon as possible!
And can I add my welcome to Mr Vik.
"Tax-cut stunts cant cover up the disaster that is Brexit."
Take care.
There are twelve hustings across the UK with (what?) a capacity of 400-500 people in each? So, that might reach 6,000 members direct - max - out of nearly 200,000, or about 3% of them, assuming they're filled to capacity.
The markets keep pricing in a big event or revelation to move the dial.
I don't think there is one.
Even IDS lasted over 6 months before the first real mutterings started, and it took nearly 2 years for him to be ousted.
We've seen a string of by-elections where the favourite has gone down.
Often heavily predicted by some on here.
Caveat though. Truss was dire in the first debate. Last by some way.
I think Cameron had strong support throughout - from Wiki:
"The Sunday Times and YouGov polled 746 members of the Conservative Party just after the conference.[51] The poll showed support slipping away from David Davis (14%) and Ken Clarke (26%) and moving to Liam Fox (13%) and David Cameron (39%) instead.
The Daily Telegraph and YouGov polled 665 members of the Conservative Party just after the first ballot, where Clarke was eliminated leaving only three contestants. The poll showed that 59 percent backed David Cameron, against 18 percent for Liam Fox and 15 per cent for Mr Davis. This poll showed support for Mr Cameron being strong amongst the grassroots of the party on the eve of the final (membership) ballot.
In a YouGov poll published on 12 November, more than two-thirds of party members looked set to vote for the younger candidate as party leader. Around 68 per cent of voters who had already returned their ballot papers had opted for Mr Cameron, while 66 per cent of those still to vote said they were likely to choose him over the then-Shadow Home Secretary David Davis. 57 per cent of those still to vote said they may change their minds between then and the postal ballot deadline on 5 December."
Mrs J had the same pudding last night and was fine. As I said, it's been three or four times in ten years or so, so it's not frequent - but we don't eat out as often as we used to, either.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2005/nov/09/toryleadership2005.conservatives
But, the gap wasn't massive and it wasn't amongst the selectorate:
1.55 Liz Truss 65%
2.86 Rishi Sunak 35%
Next Conservative leader
1.54 Liz Truss 65%
2.82 Rishi Sunak 35%
1-2 isn't particularly short in a 2 horse race
The other possibility is that a different emulsifier is used in the fancier chocolate. Soy lecithin is used in most chocolate as it is cheaper, but more expensive cocoa butter can be used, or lecithin derived from other oils, such as sunflower. So finding out the (one assumes) fancy chocolate they use in their recipe may help you to narrow down your search.
You can get an allergy screening test done on the NHS that will cover a wide array of possibilities. Go to your GP & talk to them about it.
Thinking about chocolate puddings specifically, the ingredient that is often present in higher quality puddings that is substituted for different thickeners in cheap ones is gelatin & a quick web search does reveal that gelatin allergies are rare, but do exist.
But a slice of the Conservative movement, Boris will remain king over the water. And that might remain the case if Sunak or Truss kick him out of the party. That could be a real problem going forward- much as undead Maggie was for her successors.
(One of the curious things about Corbyn is how little legacy he left in Labour- way less than Trump did, or Johnson. Both Sunak and Truss are trying to do variations of Johnsonism without Boris. Maybe right wing populists just understand power better.)
But that is a fair point. F1 has 20 cars on, and even if betting on a 1v1 style market the other 18 can interfere.
But, Sunak has a 24% deficit in the members polling - and carries a decidedly unhelpful brand due to his role in Boris Johnson's ousting - and I can't see that being a gap easily overcome.
Could he do it? Sure. But it's not a 2/1 shot.
(Although how there is anybody who thinks Truss better than Sunak is the mystery of our times.)
Just how bad would she have to be next time for Rishi to claw back a 24% deficit?
Truss is probably the most widely known after Sunak too.
I certainly think Truss will be better than Sunak in foreign policy and defence, but I think her economic policy reckless - so it will be Sunak for me.
Maybe it's comments like this from me, you and other longstanding members that align with the predispositions of centrist-pundits that are deflating her price?
Would not a long resignation list from Boris Johnson underline the urgent need for root and branch House of Lords reform? Possibly it would lead to such public disgust that it would be welcome in the next Labour manifesto.
Chocolate sometimes gives me migraines, but I am much more sensitive to dark than light chocolate, which I generally can tolerate.
It's possible with just two candidates, her weaknesses will be more stark if she's as poor again.
Though, I agree. She'd have to be utterly dire and then some.
The papers (that the members read) are, unfortunately for Sunak, pretty much in the Truss camp
Thanks MPs. Thanks a f*cking bunch.....
To think Liz Truss odds are short you would have to believe that the two following statemetns are true
1) YouGov membership leader polling is bad. This is in the face of YouGov membership leader polling picking the winner every single time across Conservative, Labour and the Lib Dem leadership elections.
2) Members are not going to return their votes as quickly as they have done in previous elections
And then you need to work out what you think the odds are of Truss to doing something gob smackingly disastrous.
Sorry to hear of your discomfiture and trust you are fully recovered.
I can think of no obvious explanation but would point out that most commercial chocolates in fact contain very little chocolate. I know this because although it is well known that you shouldn't give chocolate to dogs, most will survivie scoffing heaps of the cheap stuff such a s Cadburys. Should they get hold of the real McCoy though they are in trouble.
The advice to ask for the ingredients is sound. A good restaurant will not mind, They will not wish to lose a customer. Nor do we wish to lose an excellent poster.
Ask them.
I think the problem here is that the crowd betting is very different to the crowd voting in the leadership election, and that's why there is a reluctance to do the obvious thing and back Truss to shorter odds.
If Smarkets did a bit of outreach at vicars tea parties then I think we'd soon see Truss backed down to 1.1
Interesting graphic "The Countries that Generate the Most Solar Energy in the World"
1983 to 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sY0GuL5OyAo
If Boris is really saying that, it is nothing more than a mischievous sense of humour. He'll take the Chiltern Hundreds as soon as his successor is PM.
She is so transparently useless that blowing up on stage is quite possible, but I suspect her coalition of Johnson loyalists out for revenge, irresponsible tax cutters and Brexit headbanging would vote Truss anyway.
I was out for a work do yesterday, and several of my Indian colleagues were pro-Sunak, and convinced that if he lost (being the obviously better candidate to their eyes) it would be down to racism. I told them it would be for other reasons, but they really wouldn't have it.
The disparity in the odds may be because the sober and informed people who bet are not the swivel-eyed gammons who are going to vote for her...
At the time of the tax hikes you, me and almost every independently thinking right wingers said the tax hikes were a terrible, terrible idea.
I stand by what I said then and want them reversed. Given less than twelve months have passed, why don't you want them reversing anymore? Do you now think hiking those taxes was the right idea, or do you just think it's too late to reverse the mistake now?
You have received a number of excellent replies and I should say they are mostly correct to a greater or lesser degree. So you have here the unusual phenomenon of a value odds-on favorite. This is less rare in politics than in most betting heats; political betting markets tend to be less rational than most.
My advice is to back your judgement, but go steady. Some of the words of caution are correct too.
Incredible on a website like this.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/2e68c05e-09fc-11ed-8404-8342b19c3a65?shareToken=256af52b85ce921db1823341398bbe38
No he won't.
For a number of reasons, first as per the header, his Trumpian ambition and total lack of self-awareness. He also lives in the not too ambitious hope that Truss makes a dog's dinner out of her premiership. Secondly, the £70 grand he gets as an MP will be a handy, if tiny, contribution to his required portfolio of income sources. Lulu Lytle wallpaper doesn't come cheap.
I stopped supporting the Tories because less than 12 months ago Sunak hiked taxes, which I thought was a gross mistake.
Liz is promising to reverse those tax hikes. I support that.
I think it would be better if those taxes were never hiked, but I don't think reducing tax hikes that were announced less than a year ago is a bad idea.
https://twitter.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1551109246242127878
It is more a matter of bracing for impact, everything else is cloud cuckoo land.
More worrying are the tales of dysfunction in the day-to-day business of government.
I almost always caveat my betting predictions here but not this time.
However that means in 5 years time, as Sunak leads the Cons into his second election as Prim Minister, it is perfectly legitimate for someone to dig through the archives to find that post and say "But Alistair, you were the idiot who said Sunak had no chance, why is this new prediction you are making any good"
Many members left the party which means they're unable to vote in the current leadership contest. Unless such members come back the pro-Boris types will have the numbers for the buffoon to return.
Especially reverting back to a tax rate that existed only a few months ago.
The Tory leader [Truss] most resembles is not Mrs Thatcher. It is Boris Johnson. Should Tory activists choose Ms Truss, they will be replacing Mr Johnson with someone who shares a lot of his personal and political characteristics
“She was never very good at anything she did,” says one Tory who sat in cabinet with her. David Cameron promoted her to the top table in 2014 where she has sat ever since. That makes her the longest continuously serving member of the cabinet and yet colleagues struggle to identify a single standout achievement she can genuinely claim as all her own work.
Mr Johnson promoted her to foreign secretary last autumn because she was popular with Tory activists and he wanted to create a counterweight to Rishi Sunak. An indefatigable tooter of her own trumpet, she boasts that she has “stood up to Vladimir Putin”. The people really doing the standing up are the brave citizens of Ukraine. I know all politicians do it, but she is a wholesale appropriator of credit she doesn’t deserve,” remarks one senior Tory. That’s another trademark shared with Mr Johnson.
Others say she is a “human hand grenade”. Dominic Cummings, who has known her for a long time, remarks: “She’s about as close to properly crackers as anybody I have met in parliament.” He predicts that she would be an “even worse” prime minister than his former boss.
The Johnson-backing media has wielded its hatchets in a brutal effort to destroy her competitors. This is in part because she stayed in his cabinet to the shabby end and in part because the Brextremists think she will be their puppet. Some think Mr Johnson wants her to succeed him not just because he hates Mr Sunak, but because he believes Ms Truss will protect him and his secrets. Mr Cummings has a conspiracy theory, which sounds so wacky it could be true, that Mr Johnson reckons there’s a good chance she will blow up at Number 10, opening the door for him to return.
The last thing Britain wants or needs is a Boris Johnson Mark 2, but there is nothing Britain can do to stop Tory activists handing the keys of Number 10 to another wild blond opportunist whose primary talent is the spinning of fairytales.
I have zero confidence in her ability as PM. End of.
The Home Office barking on about Rwanda when they cannot even manage to fingerprint, photo and track arrivals is a good example. Witless incompetence on the ground combined with capricious performative cruelty.
Of course the fallacy some believe in is slashing taxes "due to the Laffer Curve" when they're already low. If taxes are low then the curve has a left hand side whereby higher taxes equals more revenue.
Taxes aren't low.
One of the first things a new administration would do - particularly a coalition/rainbow one - is work out how to change the electoral system to lock out the Conservatives from power in future.
1. It sidesteps the difficulty with the Parliamentary inquiry into whether he lied to the House. They can't sanction him if he's not an MP, and he doesn't have the danger of a recall petition.
2. Outside the House he can be publicly more critical of his successor without having to actually vote against them, and lose the party whip. This potentially makes it easier for him to rebuild his public support.
3. When he returns to the House he can do so as an MP for a safer seat.
4. The drama of the public clamour for his return, and the mandate gained from winning a by-election, would go some way in drawing a line under recent perceived unpopularity, and provide populist pressure on MPs to Bring Back Boris.
It all hinges on how much Johnson really wants it, and whether he'll come to prefer the more moneyed life of paid-for speeches and newspaper columns. And it may be that people move on, and there's never any clamour for his return, so he doesn't press it for fear of being humiliated.
Even without Laffer effects cancelling Sunaks planned pre election Income Tax cut would raise more than half the money for reversing the NI tax hike and crucially would take a small step restore the balance towards those who work for a living rather than living off unearned incomes that don't face NI.
Having a likeable leader would be a novelty for the Unionists, and a strong positive in their favour.
I think she would have been found out fairly quickly in the top job if that was a representative bit of behaviour.
It was Mordaunt's to win, and she blew it.
As for the next election, I daresay both Truss or Sunak will have some explosive right-wing populist rabbits to pull out of the hat in order to blow Labour out of the water. In that way, they are chips off the old Johnsonian block.
Checkpoints in the city had been being manned by the Russian internal security forces. they've apparently all fucked off an now checkpoints are being manned by regular army units.
Staffing of checkpoints has fallen with major checkpoints going without any troops on them recently.
Finally, the big one, looting of the more prosperous parts of Kherson by Russian troops has started. They are getting ready to leave.