You don’t stop caring for your original home and taking an interest in what happens there just because you’ve emigrated.
It’s a bizarre set of posts. I’ve never seen him have issued with sandpit or others who live overseas only gardenwalker who is absolutely entitled to his views and to post here.
I want to talk about the Tory leadership and the betting. Not drone on endlessly about it for the thousandth time and summon Scott & Paste.
The piece is interesting because it’s about the legacy of Brexit on the race (and the subsequent premiership).
My favourite bit is how - if it’s Rishi v Mordaunt - the hardliners will denounce both as Remainer sell-outs, even though both voted for Brexit (and Mordaunt is a former member of the ERG).
Yes but it's a lot of waffley bollocks.
The talk in this contest is of cost of living crisis, growth, tax, Wokery, and a bit on immigration.
Neither Mordaunt or Rishi are planning to do anything to 'betray' Brexit.
Depends what betray brexit actually is. Does Brexit have to be Boris Johnson **** business Brexit? Nope. Is any movement back to a business Brexit, any overtures to business betraying or destroying Brexit? Not necessarily.
The answers no, it’s not - cuddling up to business with some brexit tweaks in the margins is not betraying brexit.
There are many business leaders who voted for Brexit but disappointed with some of the current deal.
The unarguable bottom line is Boris Brexit deal is not aligned with any sane economic plan - Boris disastrous convention and pepppa pig speeches prove he had nothing to say other than some waffle about levelling up and high skilled high paid jobs.
Cuddling back up with business with realistic and helpful tweaking of the brexit deal is exactly why Sunak and Penny are in the top two, exactly what we do expect from them, and will get.
I want to talk about the Tory leadership and the betting. Not drone on endlessly about it for the thousandth time and summon Scott & Paste.
The piece is interesting because it’s about the legacy of Brexit on the race (and the subsequent premiership).
My favourite bit is how - if it’s Rishi v Mordaunt - the hardliners will denounce both as Remainer sell-outs, even though both voted for Brexit (and Mordaunt is a former member of the ERG).
You. Are. Not. British
You. Do. Not. Live. In. Britain
Be off, now; be off
The authentic voice of Brexit Britain.
Not really, just a rather drunk pub bore off on one late at night.
I want to talk about the Tory leadership and the betting. Not drone on endlessly about it for the thousandth time and summon Scott & Paste.
The piece is interesting because it’s about the legacy of Brexit on the race (and the subsequent premiership).
My favourite bit is how - if it’s Rishi v Mordaunt - the hardliners will denounce both as Remainer sell-outs, even though both voted for Brexit (and Mordaunt is a former member of the ERG).
You. Are. Not. British
You. Do. Not. Live. In. Britain
Be off, now; be off
Must remember to quote this at Leon every time he posts from a new five star hotel in a new country he's been in for 5 minutes and pulls some hot take opinion out of his arse about the national character.
I want to talk about the Tory leadership and the betting. Not drone on endlessly about it for the thousandth time and summon Scott & Paste.
The piece is interesting because it’s about the legacy of Brexit on the race (and the subsequent premiership).
My favourite bit is how - if it’s Rishi v Mordaunt - the hardliners will denounce both as Remainer sell-outs, even though both voted for Brexit (and Mordaunt is a former member of the ERG).
You. Are. Not. British
You. Do. Not. Live. In. Britain
Be off, now; be off
Must remember to quote this at Leon every time he posts from a new five star hotel in a new country he's been in for 5 minutes and pulls some hot take opinion out of his arse about the national character.
Or starts on one of his "Britain is fucked, I'm off for good" rants.
I want to talk about the Tory leadership and the betting. Not drone on endlessly about it for the thousandth time and summon Scott & Paste.
The piece is interesting because it’s about the legacy of Brexit on the race (and the subsequent premiership).
My favourite bit is how - if it’s Rishi v Mordaunt - the hardliners will denounce both as Remainer sell-outs, even though both voted for Brexit (and Mordaunt is a former member of the ERG).
You. Are. Not. British
You. Do. Not. Live. In. Britain
Be off, now; be off
The authentic voice of Brexit Britain.
Not really, just a rather drunk pub bore off on one late at night.
That is the authentic voice of Brexit Britain. 😉
It’s really not. Most of this great nation are friendly welcoming folk.
Now Penny favourite again at 2.5. Rishi 2.76, Truss 6.2. Kemi 13.
I think this shows absolutely nobody's support is very solid. Members (and maybe some MPs) may well switch their choice depending on debate performance and whatever else happens.
What it probably shows is people seeing early the polls and stories from tomorrow's Sunday papers.
I want to talk about the Tory leadership and the betting. Not drone on endlessly about it for the thousandth time and summon Scott & Paste.
The piece is interesting because it’s about the legacy of Brexit on the race (and the subsequent premiership).
My favourite bit is how - if it’s Rishi v Mordaunt - the hardliners will denounce both as Remainer sell-outs, even though both voted for Brexit (and Mordaunt is a former member of the ERG).
You. Are. Not. British
You. Do. Not. Live. In. Britain
Be off, now; be off
Must remember to quote this at Leon every time he posts from a new five star hotel in a new country he's been in for 5 minutes and pulls some hot take opinion out of his arse about the national character.
Or starts on one of his "Britain is fucked, I'm off for good" rants.
Also true, but I do feel one of those coming on myself
I am glad there are other Chris Grey fans on here. He’s peerless in his analysis.
He's a Remoaner. He doesn't begin to understand Brexit. It's pointless verbiage from a loser
No, he’s very good. You have quite bad judgment on this due to being a rancid and often drunken old gammon.
Yes, well done, blah
You're a racist, socially awkward Kiwi - by your own admission - who has almost zero connection to the UK, who lives in New York, who expresses constant distaste for the United Kingdom, and who has no intention of ever living in the UK ever again
Quite frankly, what the fuck are you doing on this British website which is largely aimed at British people discussing British matters?
Fuck off and find your own place. Your commentary is ridiculous given how little attachment you have to OUR country
Point of order. Many posters north of the border only have attachment to part of the country.
Indeed. But as long as you are British you are, of course, as free as any Brit to say anything you like about Britain
I genuinely do not understand bloated sow's-bladders like @Gardenwalker who not only is not British. but doesn't live in Britain, and despises Britain, and wants to retire to somewhere other than Britain. How not involved in Britain can you be until you realise your vacuous opinion on Britain - from Manhattan - is not sought by Britons?
FFS man, go on to the American version of PB.com. It will be better for all. Dick
I find @Gardenwalker is an insightful and interesting poster except when he starts talking about Brexit. Then he turns into a nob.
What is it about the subject that does this to people?
I don't think even he has much love for the EU.
Something else is going on.
Ignoring the nob (I’ve called you far worse), I think Brexit was a tragic mis-step that makes Britain poorer, weaker and more divided.
I certainly don’t “love” the EU, I’m not sure many Remainers do, that’s a misconception of Brexiters I think.
But I agree, it’s boring now. Chris Grey’s article is very insightful on the race itself.
Just stop. Just leave. It's not hard
I would not spend multiple hours commenting on the internal politics of a country I do not live in and have no desire to return to, and in which I was not born
It's simple bad manners (amongst many other things). I don't believe you are ill-mannered. So: desist
As much as @Leon is my PB hero, @Gardenwalker please do ignore this. You bring an interesting perspective. And it's Saturday night.
Agree re support for @Gardenwalker. @Leon needs to take some time in the cooler tbh.
When you come back in from the cold Leon (err no pun intended) check all your settings.
⚙️PB administration cogtastic post⚙️
BenPointer kindly flagged up my gratuitous email display a long time ago when I was new, I did untick to turn it off. When my account was set back to applicant I lost some settings and an option screen to change them, such as to keep my email unpublic can’t be found in applicant status, nor change picture, can’t message another poster on PB, I could reply to old message in box, I only ever spoke to one other PBer on messaging.
When the options came back the keep email private box appeared it needed my password to become unticked. Anyone gets reset to applicant or banned you might find your preferences have changed.
Another key point is Morris Dancer was right, one thing RCS sent to me i found in a junk folder. 🤦♀️ And my junk must get taken out regularly because it only showed one days junk. RCS posted it’s hard for him to contact people behind scenes to sort queries out,
It's a stupid question anyway because it has nothing to do with safe spaces for biological women. Even Liz Truss said she supported the right of trans people to be treated with respect and that means referring to them by their proper pronouns etc. That's a completely different issue to self-ID and or safe spaces for biological woman, where appropriate.
Now Penny favourite again at 2.5. Rishi 2.76, Truss 6.2. Kemi 13.
I think this shows absolutely nobody's support is very solid. Members (and maybe some MPs) may well switch their choice depending on debate performance and whatever else happens.
Yes, I am sitting pretty at present. I am green across the board (apart from TiT) best on Badenoch then Truss, the Mordaunt then on Sunak.
I think that I will sit on my current position as I don't see much value. Possibly a smidgen on Truss, who surely won't be so crap in the next debate.
I want to talk about the Tory leadership and the betting. Not drone on endlessly about it for the thousandth time and summon Scott & Paste.
But its absence from the Tory leadership contest is hugely telling. They know it’s a fuck up, otherwise they’d be trumpeting it’s benefits every time they opened their mouths. But they aren’t. They all witter on about the economy, sorting the economy, without mentioning the impact Brexit has had and is having.
They’re all fundamentally unserious. But they can’t tell the truth cos the grassroots refuse to hear it.
The governing party is simply refusing to acknowledge the biggest issue the country continues to face, that seeps into everything else. It’s laughable. And tragic.
Because it's not the biggest issue of the day. Inflation is and Brexit makes precisely zero difference to inflation. In case you hadn't noticed the inflation rate across Europe is the same or worse than here.
You want to see issues with Brexit where few exist because you want to be vindicated in voting to sell out the nation to Brussels. It's fine, that's up to you. Really Brexit is neither here nor there, we've left the EU, the problems facing us pre dated it and we continue to face them, unless you think staying in the EU would have magicked up an additional 2m houses and resulted in the death of 1m or so over 80s.
‘Inflation is particularly acute in the United Kingdom, triggering a cost of living crisis for British households. Comparing like for like in core inflation rates, which strips out the first-round impact of volatile food and energy components, inflation is 1.6 percentage points higher in the UK than in Germany, nearly 3 percentage points higher than in France, and more than 3 percentage points higher than in Italy. Instead, UK core inflation is catching up with core inflation in the US, despite the US having had much greater fiscal stimulus and labor market disruption than the UK (or EU) during 2021.
‘Some observers blame elevated UK inflation on war-related food and energy shocks. Such assertions fall flat for several reasons…
‘… Brexit has amplified the inflationary impact of a simultaneous common shock. By ending the free movement of EU migrant workers to the UK, the UK government has unilaterally cut the labor supply and its elasticity. By adding new tariff and nontariff trade barriers, the British government has slashed purchasing power and available imports, and it has created inflation during the staggered implementation of the Brexit deal. The UK officially exited the EU in December 2020. By creating uncertainty about UK economic policy and investment prospects, Brexit has weakened the anchor for inflation expectations.’
That seems to be the emerging consensus. There’s loads of stuff in a similar vein if you care to look for it. Brexit impacts on everything. It’s why the Tory candidates aren’t mentioning it.
And there are plenty of other things about the Tories and their policies that fill me with contempt. That pre-dated Brexit. They’re fucking you hard enough, tax wise, or so you say. betraying you to cosset the oldies. God knows why you’re defending them.
Anyone watching the T20? What a competition! The Hundred can fuck off, it can't match this.
Yes, I’m jubilant! Arrived home from graduations all day with ecstatic students and families, and now this, after we fecked up the start of the groups, and looked to have under scored in the final.
Now Penny favourite again at 2.5. Rishi 2.76, Truss 6.2. Kemi 13.
I think this shows absolutely nobody's support is very solid. Members (and maybe some MPs) may well switch their choice depending on debate performance and whatever else happens.
Yes, I am sitting pretty at present. I am green across the board (apart from TiT) best on Badenoch then Truss, the Mordaunt then on Sunak.
I think that I will sit on my current position as I don't see much value. Possibly a smidgen on Truss, who surely won't be so crap in the next debate.
I am completely green on this one.
Nice feeling.
Me too, with 2 bets. Backing Truss, and laying Truss.
By the way, I am British and I am entitled to post endless flatulent nonsense all about Britain on a British politics website
Why?
Because
"I hope to retire in various places, including the UK"
That's it. You, Britain, are number 8 on my list of "possible places to retire to", so here is my lecture on your disgusting politics, you awful people, just in case my first 7 retirement plans go wrong
You appear to be nursing a lot of hatred. Seek help.
This is easily solved. You are in America and have no intention of returning to Britain
Go onto the American version of PB.com. YOU LIVE IN AMERICA
Let us argue ourselves in our awful little country, which you loathe - and which you left with much relief - about the merits or otherwise of Brexit, or indeed anything else that concerns us; your opinion does not advance things
I genuinely don't understand this level of bad manners. I'm not joking. No fucking way would I intrude onto an American website and start lecturing them about their disgraceful independent American-ness and their vile hateful politics blah blah. I may THINK that, but I would never do it. And it rather exposes someone that thinks this is socially tolerable
You seem to loathe just as many Brits yourself, especially the young.
Indeed as @Gardenwalker is in much closer alignment to the majority of Britons who think Brexit a historic mistake, it is very likely that @Leon hates the majority of his country folk.
If you say so, but at the same time, the notion of Bregret becomes a sillier and more risible one as time marches on. We became an independent country when we left the EU. We joined many others in that regard, many smaller and with less advantages than we have in 'making it', and managing to do so with a lot less whining. So what is the actual problem? Let's get the eff on with it and stop whining for the tit when we're 8 years old.
By the way, I am British and I am entitled to post endless flatulent nonsense all about Britain on a British politics website
Why?
Because
"I hope to retire in various places, including the UK"
That's it. You, Britain, are number 8 on my list of "possible places to retire to", so here is my lecture on your disgusting politics, you awful people, just in case my first 7 retirement plans go wrong
You appear to be nursing a lot of hatred. Seek help.
This is easily solved. You are in America and have no intention of returning to Britain
Go onto the American version of PB.com. YOU LIVE IN AMERICA
Let us argue ourselves in our awful little country, which you loathe - and which you left with much relief - about the merits or otherwise of Brexit, or indeed anything else that concerns us; your opinion does not advance things
I genuinely don't understand this level of bad manners. I'm not joking. No fucking way would I intrude onto an American website and start lecturing them about their disgraceful independent American-ness and their vile hateful politics blah blah. I may THINK that, but I would never do it. And it rather exposes someone that thinks this is socially tolerable
You seem to loathe just as many Brits yourself, especially the young.
Indeed as @Gardenwalker is in much closer alignment to the majority of Britons who think Brexit a historic mistake, it is very likely that @Leon hates the majority of his country folk.
If you say so, but at the same time, the notion of Bregret becomes a sillier and more risible one as time marches on. We became an independent country when we left the EU. We joined many others in that regard, many smaller and with less advantages than we have in 'making it', and managing to do so with a lot less whining. So what is the actual problem? Let's get the eff on with it and stop whining for the tit when we're 8 years old.
So, have I got this right? Leon comes back from a three month holiday touring at least five countries where every night he is chilled out after the sun and a swim and several large glasses of the local tipple and then he gets back to Camden and within hours he is banned?
Post holiday blues?
Or perhaps London isn't the best place for him despite how he goes on about it?
Now Penny favourite again at 2.5. Rishi 2.76, Truss 6.2. Kemi 13.
I think this shows absolutely nobody's support is very solid. Members (and maybe some MPs) may well switch their choice depending on debate performance and whatever else happens.
What it probably shows is people seeing early the polls and stories from tomorrow's Sunday papers.
It shows how volatile betting market is to all over the road polling of party members and temporary media narratives.
I called this right couple of days ago, Sunak and Penny go to the membership with quite a big margin to whoever is third. Though I am no as confident now Penny does beat Rishi.
The Tory membership is at the same stage now as the Labour membership was when they elected Corbyn, i.e. totally out of touch with political reality.
Don't forget the Labour membership and registered supporters also elected the more leftwing Ed Miliband over the more centrist David Miliband in 2010 before they elected Corbyn in 2015 and again in 2016. It took them 13 years after Blair left office and 10 years after the 2010 defeat of Brown to elect Starmer over Long Bailey ie the centrist candidate in a Labour leadership race.
The Tories are probably only getting started in electing rightwing candidates over centrists as their leader, it took them 3 general election defeats for the members to elect Cameron as leader in 2005 after all
In fact Labour Party members voted for David 54-46 in the final round. Very similar to MPs who voted for David 53-47.
Ed only won because he won the affiliates (ie unions) 60-40.
The Tory membership is at the same stage now as the Labour membership was when they elected Corbyn, i.e. totally out of touch with political reality.
Don't forget the Labour membership and registered supporters also elected the more leftwing Ed Miliband over the more centrist David Miliband in 2010 before they elected Corbyn in 2015 and again in 2016. It took them 13 years after Blair left office and 10 years after the 2010 defeat of Brown to elect Starmer over Long Bailey ie the centrist candidate in a Labour leadership race.
The Tories are probably only getting started in electing rightwing candidates over centrists as their leader, it took them 3 general election defeats for the members to elect Cameron as leader in 2005 after all
In fact Labour Party members voted for David 54-46 in the final round. Very similar to MPs who voted for David 53-47.
Ed only won because he won the affiliates (ie unions) 60-40.
The Tory membership is at the same stage now as the Labour membership was when they elected Corbyn, i.e. totally out of touch with political reality.
Don't forget the Labour membership and registered supporters also elected the more leftwing Ed Miliband over the more centrist David Miliband in 2010 before they elected Corbyn in 2015 and again in 2016. It took them 13 years after Blair left office and 10 years after the 2010 defeat of Brown to elect Starmer over Long Bailey ie the centrist candidate in a Labour leadership race.
The Tories are probably only getting started in electing rightwing candidates over centrists as their leader, it took them 3 general election defeats for the members to elect Cameron as leader in 2005 after all
In fact Labour Party members voted for David 54-46 in the final round. Very similar to MPs who voted for David 53-47.
Ed only won because he won the affiliates (ie unions) 60-40.
We're due to run a deficit of £100 billion in the current financial year and the OBR was making optimistic noises about getting that down to £32 billion in the next five years.
Looking at some of the public spending, state pensions account for £110.6 billion (about 10%). That's a tiny bit less than goes on capital investment spending (£114 billion) with the big ticket item health and social care at £168 billion. Debt interest comes in at £87 billion, Education at £77 billion and Defence at £32 billion.
In effect, were it not for the debt interest payments we'd be not too badly off.
However, I simply can't see where the idea of large tax cuts comes from - the theory presumably (thank you, Mr Laffer) is lower taxes will stimulate more activity and bring in more revenue. I'm just not convinced by that - even by 2026-27, spending will only be 41.1% of national income, revenue will be 40.1%.
This isn't of course solely a challenge for the Conservative leadership hopefuls - it's a challenge for Labour as well. Covid made a huge difference but even before that successive Chancellors borrowed to keep the show on the road with interest rates at historic lows and I suspect those days are over.
How do you reduce the deficit and aim to bring the public finances into balance or ideally surplus? The options are straightforward but the political problem is as soon as times are good the Government of the day immediately wants to "reward" us with tax cuts (or bribes if you prefer). Ken Clarke famously eschewed tax cuts in the interests of budget surplus and the opportunity to pay down debt and reduce interest payments - that would be a bold strategy for Rachel Reeves to follow or example but would certainly make sense (to be fair Brown followed Clarke's spending plans into 1999 and produced budget surpluses).
By the way, I am British and I am entitled to post endless flatulent nonsense all about Britain on a British politics website
Why?
Because
"I hope to retire in various places, including the UK"
That's it. You, Britain, are number 8 on my list of "possible places to retire to", so here is my lecture on your disgusting politics, you awful people, just in case my first 7 retirement plans go wrong
You appear to be nursing a lot of hatred. Seek help.
This is easily solved. You are in America and have no intention of returning to Britain
Go onto the American version of PB.com. YOU LIVE IN AMERICA
Let us argue ourselves in our awful little country, which you loathe - and which you left with much relief - about the merits or otherwise of Brexit, or indeed anything else that concerns us; your opinion does not advance things
I genuinely don't understand this level of bad manners. I'm not joking. No fucking way would I intrude onto an American website and start lecturing them about their disgraceful independent American-ness and their vile hateful politics blah blah. I may THINK that, but I would never do it. And it rather exposes someone that thinks this is socially tolerable
You seem to loathe just as many Brits yourself, especially the young.
Indeed as @Gardenwalker is in much closer alignment to the majority of Britons who think Brexit a historic mistake, it is very likely that @Leon hates the majority of his country folk.
If you say so, but at the same time, the notion of Bregret becomes a sillier and more risible one as time marches on. We became an independent country when we left the EU. We joined many others in that regard, many smaller and with less advantages than we have in 'making it', and managing to do so with a lot less whining. So what is the actual problem? Let's get the eff on with it and stop whining for the tit when we're 8 years old.
Is not the contention of the Chris Grey stuff posted earlier that we cannot get the eff on with it until it is possible to discuss where we are post-Brexit, where we want to be and how to get there? And at the moment politicians are running scared so that it cannot even be debated during the election of the Leader of the Conservative Party and our new Prime Minister.
By the way, I am British and I am entitled to post endless flatulent nonsense all about Britain on a British politics website
Why?
Because
"I hope to retire in various places, including the UK"
That's it. You, Britain, are number 8 on my list of "possible places to retire to", so here is my lecture on your disgusting politics, you awful people, just in case my first 7 retirement plans go wrong
You appear to be nursing a lot of hatred. Seek help.
This is easily solved. You are in America and have no intention of returning to Britain
Go onto the American version of PB.com. YOU LIVE IN AMERICA
Let us argue ourselves in our awful little country, which you loathe - and which you left with much relief - about the merits or otherwise of Brexit, or indeed anything else that concerns us; your opinion does not advance things
I genuinely don't understand this level of bad manners. I'm not joking. No fucking way would I intrude onto an American website and start lecturing them about their disgraceful independent American-ness and their vile hateful politics blah blah. I may THINK that, but I would never do it. And it rather exposes someone that thinks this is socially tolerable
You seem to loathe just as many Brits yourself, especially the young.
Indeed as @Gardenwalker is in much closer alignment to the majority of Britons who think Brexit a historic mistake, it is very likely that @Leon hates the majority of his country folk.
If you say so, but at the same time, the notion of Bregret becomes a sillier and more risible one as time marches on. We became an independent country when we left the EU. We joined many others in that regard, many smaller and with less advantages than we have in 'making it', and managing to do so with a lot less whining. So what is the actual problem? Let's get the eff on with it and stop whining for the tit when we're 8 years old.
Whatever makes you feel better mate
I don't need anything to make me feel better thanks, helping people by pointing out the ridiculousness their whining about the tragedy of being given their democracy back is all part of the service.
The Tory membership is at the same stage now as the Labour membership was when they elected Corbyn, i.e. totally out of touch with political reality.
Don't forget the Labour membership and registered supporters also elected the more leftwing Ed Miliband over the more centrist David Miliband in 2010 before they elected Corbyn in 2015 and again in 2016. It took them 13 years after Blair left office and 10 years after the 2010 defeat of Brown to elect Starmer over Long Bailey ie the centrist candidate in a Labour leadership race.
The Tories are probably only getting started in electing rightwing candidates over centrists as their leader, it took them 3 general election defeats for the members to elect Cameron as leader in 2005 after all
In fact Labour Party members voted for David 54-46 in the final round. Very similar to MPs who voted for David 53-47.
Ed only won because he won the affiliates (ie unions) 60-40.
By the way, I am British and I am entitled to post endless flatulent nonsense all about Britain on a British politics website
Why?
Because
"I hope to retire in various places, including the UK"
That's it. You, Britain, are number 8 on my list of "possible places to retire to", so here is my lecture on your disgusting politics, you awful people, just in case my first 7 retirement plans go wrong
You appear to be nursing a lot of hatred. Seek help.
This is easily solved. You are in America and have no intention of returning to Britain
Go onto the American version of PB.com. YOU LIVE IN AMERICA
Let us argue ourselves in our awful little country, which you loathe - and which you left with much relief - about the merits or otherwise of Brexit, or indeed anything else that concerns us; your opinion does not advance things
I genuinely don't understand this level of bad manners. I'm not joking. No fucking way would I intrude onto an American website and start lecturing them about their disgraceful independent American-ness and their vile hateful politics blah blah. I may THINK that, but I would never do it. And it rather exposes someone that thinks this is socially tolerable
You seem to loathe just as many Brits yourself, especially the young.
Indeed as @Gardenwalker is in much closer alignment to the majority of Britons who think Brexit a historic mistake, it is very likely that @Leon hates the majority of his country folk.
If you say so, but at the same time, the notion of Bregret becomes a sillier and more risible one as time marches on. We became an independent country when we left the EU. We joined many others in that regard, many smaller and with less advantages than we have in 'making it', and managing to do so with a lot less whining. So what is the actual problem? Let's get the eff on with it and stop whining for the tit when we're 8 years old.
We were of course an independent country throughout our membership of the EU.
I want to talk about the Tory leadership and the betting. Not drone on endlessly about it for the thousandth time and summon Scott & Paste.
But its absence from the Tory leadership contest is hugely telling. They know it’s a fuck up, otherwise they’d be trumpeting it’s benefits every time they opened their mouths. But they aren’t. They all witter on about the economy, sorting the economy, without mentioning the impact Brexit has had and is having.
They’re all fundamentally unserious. But they can’t tell the truth cos the grassroots refuse to hear it.
The governing party is simply refusing to acknowledge the biggest issue the country continues to face, that seeps into everything else. It’s laughable. And tragic.
Because it's not the biggest issue of the day. Inflation is and Brexit makes precisely zero difference to inflation. In case you hadn't noticed the inflation rate across Europe is the same or worse than here.
You want to see issues with Brexit where few exist because you want to be vindicated in voting to sell out the nation to Brussels. It's fine, that's up to you. Really Brexit is neither here nor there, we've left the EU, the problems facing us pre dated it and we continue to face them, unless you think staying in the EU would have magicked up an additional 2m houses and resulted in the death of 1m or so over 80s.
‘Inflation is particularly acute in the United Kingdom, triggering a cost of living crisis for British households. Comparing like for like in core inflation rates, which strips out the first-round impact of volatile food and energy components, inflation is 1.6 percentage points higher in the UK than in Germany, nearly 3 percentage points higher than in France, and more than 3 percentage points higher than in Italy. Instead, UK core inflation is catching up with core inflation in the US, despite the US having had much greater fiscal stimulus and labor market disruption than the UK (or EU) during 2021.
‘Some observers blame elevated UK inflation on war-related food and energy shocks. Such assertions fall flat for several reasons…
‘… Brexit has amplified the inflationary impact of a simultaneous common shock. By ending the free movement of EU migrant workers to the UK, the UK government has unilaterally cut the labor supply and its elasticity. By adding new tariff and nontariff trade barriers, the British government has slashed purchasing power and available imports, and it has created inflation during the staggered implementation of the Brexit deal. The UK officially exited the EU in December 2020. By creating uncertainty about UK economic policy and investment prospects, Brexit has weakened the anchor for inflation expectations.’
That seems to be the emerging consensus. There’s loads of stuff in a similar vein if you care to look for it. Brexit impacts on everything. It’s why the Tory candidates aren’t mentioning it.
And there are plenty of other things about the Tories and their policies that fill me with contempt. That pre-dated Brexit. They’re fucking you hard enough, tax wise, or so you say. betraying you to cosset the oldies. God knows why you’re defending them.
But, but all those papers said wages weren't being depressed by EU migration! Surely wages can't be going up because unlimited EU migration is now a closed door.
The reality is that the same liberal wanky economists who said that are now saying this. They were wrong then and they are wrong now. Our inflation is being driven by commodity prices rising due to shortages and political turmoil alongside USD surging as a safe haven. Both the UK and EU are similarly effected. The difference this time round is that the UK still has headroom to raise rates, the EU hasn't.
The music around Truss from the right has worried me this evening. The right are hell bent on subjecting us to a totally inadequate leader who will lead to the tories to a stinking electoral defeat
Now Penny favourite again at 2.5. Rishi 2.76, Truss 6.2. Kemi 13.
I think this shows absolutely nobody's support is very solid. Members (and maybe some MPs) may well switch their choice depending on debate performance and whatever else happens.
What it probably shows is people seeing early the polls and stories from tomorrow's Sunday papers.
It shows how volatile betting market is to all over the road polling of party members and temporary media narratives, like bad debate the better debate.
I called this right couple of days ago, Sunak and Penny go to the membership with quite a big margin to whoever is third. Though I am no as confident now Penny does beat Rishi.
There’s things I’d like to say about the member polls. You could respond to a poll, not end up with an option you like so not even vote. Some people in the samples might not vote. I also suspect with leadership polling of any political party, there could be strong regional biases - what are those behind the polls doing to account for lumpy regional bias in their samples?
Give me some comfort that the Uk is not going to have to ration power this winter? I’m looking at Russian gas cuts in Europe and the Norwegians likely to increase supply to Europe to the detriment of the UK. And it has me worried.
Not a bad time to buy power banks, solar panels, usb heated clothing. Camping gas or spirit stove, etc.
I’ve already done what I can. But there’s several million vulnerable households that rely on power to operate their boiler (no continuous power supply installed to the brains and / or fuel injection pump). And to cook and boil water. And to use their landlines. And quite a few that live in areas where private water companies haven’t bothered invested in backup generators at the pumping stations. How sure are we the cell phone network would be resilient to this? Because it wasn’t over a very wide area of Kent during the storm induced extended cuts earlier this year.
As a country we are far more reliant on electricity than we were in the 70s - 80s, when most of us last experienced regular power outages. I’ll bet loads of households now don’t have any candles or even matches (fewer smokers), no way of accessing info or sending messages without mains power (mobile coverage sketchy, landline phones now fancy mains digital handsets), no way of heating or cooking.
Are we seeing a similar episode of complacent neglect among government in preparing for a very foreseeable crisis, as per Jan - Mar 2020?
Sure we’re not going to see extended cuts lasting for days. But it’s easy to imagine repeated blackouts that end up costing lives due to lack of planning by households and government.
Edit:
I forgot petrol stations. The pumps don’t work without power of course. To add another inconvenience, if power gets rationed or the grid fails to match supply with demand.
I completely agree.
What I'm preparing for is rolling blackouts, the type where you're without power for a few hours or at worst a day, and what you need is to be able to charge your laptop and your phone, and maybe heat up a can of soup or boil a cup of tea. Plus a USB bank powered jacket so I won't get cold without the heating on.
I suspect that since natural gas is only about 44% of the uk grid, that's what we'd end up with in a worst case scenario (bearing in mind we also produce our own gas). Rolling outages of a few hours every day across pockets of the UK, to reduce demand on the grid.
But that's 24 hours or so max. If the situation somehow becomes dramatically worse than that, then it is as you describe above. No power to petrol pumps, people without the ability to cook for days, most people unable to remain connected to news due to reliance on the internet, etc. Society would break down fast.
The good news is I think because of our limited reliance on natural gas and the fact we are able to produce it, albeit not enough, the worst we are looking at is rolling blackouts, rather than total chaos.
Europe however - things could get ugly fast. And unfortunately that is how Putin ends up winning in Ukraine.
Down in one my friend! That was some bowling. 48 needed off 44 balls.
It’s one of my better ones so I’m savouring. Cracking bowling. Some guts at the end.
Another reason this is better than the Hundred is that this is Lancashire against Hampshire, not Manchester against Southern. I claim no particular history of following Lancashire, but I do love that this is a club who people have cared about for generations - as with Hampshire, of course. It's hard to think it would mean that much to people seeing Southern beat Manchester.
By the way, I am British and I am entitled to post endless flatulent nonsense all about Britain on a British politics website
Why?
Because
"I hope to retire in various places, including the UK"
That's it. You, Britain, are number 8 on my list of "possible places to retire to", so here is my lecture on your disgusting politics, you awful people, just in case my first 7 retirement plans go wrong
You appear to be nursing a lot of hatred. Seek help.
This is easily solved. You are in America and have no intention of returning to Britain
Go onto the American version of PB.com. YOU LIVE IN AMERICA
Let us argue ourselves in our awful little country, which you loathe - and which you left with much relief - about the merits or otherwise of Brexit, or indeed anything else that concerns us; your opinion does not advance things
I genuinely don't understand this level of bad manners. I'm not joking. No fucking way would I intrude onto an American website and start lecturing them about their disgraceful independent American-ness and their vile hateful politics blah blah. I may THINK that, but I would never do it. And it rather exposes someone that thinks this is socially tolerable
You seem to loathe just as many Brits yourself, especially the young.
Indeed as @Gardenwalker is in much closer alignment to the majority of Britons who think Brexit a historic mistake, it is very likely that @Leon hates the majority of his country folk.
If you say so, but at the same time, the notion of Bregret becomes a sillier and more risible one as time marches on. We became an independent country when we left the EU. We joined many others in that regard, many smaller and with less advantages than we have in 'making it', and managing to do so with a lot less whining. So what is the actual problem? Let's get the eff on with it and stop whining for the tit when we're 8 years old.
Whatever makes you feel better mate
I don't need anything to make me feel better thanks, helping people by pointing out the ridiculousness their whining about the tragedy of being given their democracy back is all part of the service.
Let me guess: you either don't have a job, or it's public sector?
By the way, I am British and I am entitled to post endless flatulent nonsense all about Britain on a British politics website
Why?
Because
"I hope to retire in various places, including the UK"
That's it. You, Britain, are number 8 on my list of "possible places to retire to", so here is my lecture on your disgusting politics, you awful people, just in case my first 7 retirement plans go wrong
You appear to be nursing a lot of hatred. Seek help.
This is easily solved. You are in America and have no intention of returning to Britain
Go onto the American version of PB.com. YOU LIVE IN AMERICA
Let us argue ourselves in our awful little country, which you loathe - and which you left with much relief - about the merits or otherwise of Brexit, or indeed anything else that concerns us; your opinion does not advance things
I genuinely don't understand this level of bad manners. I'm not joking. No fucking way would I intrude onto an American website and start lecturing them about their disgraceful independent American-ness and their vile hateful politics blah blah. I may THINK that, but I would never do it. And it rather exposes someone that thinks this is socially tolerable
You seem to loathe just as many Brits yourself, especially the young.
Indeed as @Gardenwalker is in much closer alignment to the majority of Britons who think Brexit a historic mistake, it is very likely that @Leon hates the majority of his country folk.
If you say so, but at the same time, the notion of Bregret becomes a sillier and more risible one as time marches on. We became an independent country when we left the EU. We joined many others in that regard, many smaller and with less advantages than we have in 'making it', and managing to do so with a lot less whining. So what is the actual problem? Let's get the eff on with it and stop whining for the tit when we're 8 years old.
We were of course an independent country throughout our membership of the EU.
Yes, just not in any meaningful sense of the word 'independent' or indeed 'country'.
This evening confirms that Brexit is a weird poison that derails meaningful debate and no doubt will continue to. Britain’s equivalent to US gun laws or German Nuclear power policy.
By the way, I am British and I am entitled to post endless flatulent nonsense all about Britain on a British politics website
Why?
Because
"I hope to retire in various places, including the UK"
That's it. You, Britain, are number 8 on my list of "possible places to retire to", so here is my lecture on your disgusting politics, you awful people, just in case my first 7 retirement plans go wrong
You appear to be nursing a lot of hatred. Seek help.
This is easily solved. You are in America and have no intention of returning to Britain
Go onto the American version of PB.com. YOU LIVE IN AMERICA
Let us argue ourselves in our awful little country, which you loathe - and which you left with much relief - about the merits or otherwise of Brexit, or indeed anything else that concerns us; your opinion does not advance things
I genuinely don't understand this level of bad manners. I'm not joking. No fucking way would I intrude onto an American website and start lecturing them about their disgraceful independent American-ness and their vile hateful politics blah blah. I may THINK that, but I would never do it. And it rather exposes someone that thinks this is socially tolerable
You seem to loathe just as many Brits yourself, especially the young.
Indeed as @Gardenwalker is in much closer alignment to the majority of Britons who think Brexit a historic mistake, it is very likely that @Leon hates the majority of his country folk.
If you say so, but at the same time, the notion of Bregret becomes a sillier and more risible one as time marches on. We became an independent country when we left the EU. We joined many others in that regard, many smaller and with less advantages than we have in 'making it', and managing to do so with a lot less whining. So what is the actual problem? Let's get the eff on with it and stop whining for the tit when we're 8 years old.
Whatever makes you feel better mate
I don't need anything to make me feel better thanks, helping people by pointing out the ridiculousness their whining about the tragedy of being given their democracy back is all part of the service.
Let me guess: you either don't have a job, or it's public sector?
What's happened to Penny this evening? And, to a lesser extent, where has Kemi's surge come from? Is this all down to Penny's comments from a couple of years ago about transsexuals or has something new happened?
Down in one my friend! That was some bowling. 48 needed off 44 balls.
It’s one of my better ones so I’m savouring. Cracking bowling. Some guts at the end.
Another reason this is better than the Hundred is that this is Lancashire against Hampshire, not Manchester against Southern. I claim no particular history of following Lancashire, but I do love that this is a club who people have cared about for generations - as with Hampshire, of course. It's hard to think it would mean that much to people seeing Southern beat Manchester.
I’ve been a Hampshire fan since Malcolm Marshall, robin and Chris Smith, Paul terry etc. Watched them at the old ground in Southampton, and at the out ground in Bournemouth. Thirty five years a fan. The hundred? One year of history...
Mordaunt in serious trouble, looks like the Sunday Times is going to lead on her lies about Self ID. Well spotted @Cyclefree.
That's not really trouble, the Times have been gunning for her from the get go.
Tory MPs and members read the Sunday Times and they have a leaked memo that shows the the policy changed when Kemi and Liz took over not when Penny was on charge as she has claimed on multiple occasions.
The Walter Mitty accusations look like they are true to me.
I want to talk about the Tory leadership and the betting. Not drone on endlessly about it for the thousandth time and summon Scott & Paste.
But its absence from the Tory leadership contest is hugely telling. They know it’s a fuck up, otherwise they’d be trumpeting it’s benefits every time they opened their mouths. But they aren’t. They all witter on about the economy, sorting the economy, without mentioning the impact Brexit has had and is having.
They’re all fundamentally unserious. But they can’t tell the truth cos the grassroots refuse to hear it.
The governing party is simply refusing to acknowledge the biggest issue the country continues to face, that seeps into everything else. It’s laughable. And tragic.
Because it's not the biggest issue of the day. Inflation is and Brexit makes precisely zero difference to inflation. In case you hadn't noticed the inflation rate across Europe is the same or worse than here.
You want to see issues with Brexit where few exist because you want to be vindicated in voting to sell out the nation to Brussels. It's fine, that's up to you. Really Brexit is neither here nor there, we've left the EU, the problems facing us pre dated it and we continue to face them, unless you think staying in the EU would have magicked up an additional 2m houses and resulted in the death of 1m or so over 80s.
Brexit has weakened the currency and reduced labour supply, both contributing to the inflation crisis.
Mordaunt in serious trouble, looks like the Sunday Times is going to lead on her lies about Self ID. Well spotted @Cyclefree.
That's not really trouble, the Times have been gunning for her from the get go.
The Mail this morning was strongly pro-Truss and anti-Mordaunt as you might expect. Fairly neutral on Sunak and even Badenoch and surprisingly kind to Tugendhat though in a pretty patronising and dismissive way.
I want to talk about the Tory leadership and the betting. Not drone on endlessly about it for the thousandth time and summon Scott & Paste.
But its absence from the Tory leadership contest is hugely telling. They know it’s a fuck up, otherwise they’d be trumpeting it’s benefits every time they opened their mouths. But they aren’t. They all witter on about the economy, sorting the economy, without mentioning the impact Brexit has had and is having.
They’re all fundamentally unserious. But they can’t tell the truth cos the grassroots refuse to hear it.
The governing party is simply refusing to acknowledge the biggest issue the country continues to face, that seeps into everything else. It’s laughable. And tragic.
Because it's not the biggest issue of the day. Inflation is and Brexit makes precisely zero difference to inflation. In case you hadn't noticed the inflation rate across Europe is the same or worse than here.
You want to see issues with Brexit where few exist because you want to be vindicated in voting to sell out the nation to Brussels. It's fine, that's up to you. Really Brexit is neither here nor there, we've left the EU, the problems facing us pre dated it and we continue to face them, unless you think staying in the EU would have magicked up an additional 2m houses and resulted in the death of 1m or so over 80s.
Brexit has weakened the currency and reduced labour supply, both contributing to the inflation crisis.
Have you seen how the Euro is performing vs the Dollar?
Truss could win this couldn’t she? Mordaunt seems to have the entire Tory press against her. It’s bizarre. And the weirdly influential Rasputin of modern Toryism David Frost.
If she wins she’ll lead them to a well deserved complete thrashing. But I don’t want a complete thrashing because that will enable Labour to forget, yet again, about electoral reform.
I want to talk about the Tory leadership and the betting. Not drone on endlessly about it for the thousandth time and summon Scott & Paste.
But its absence from the Tory leadership contest is hugely telling. They know it’s a fuck up, otherwise they’d be trumpeting it’s benefits every time they opened their mouths. But they aren’t. They all witter on about the economy, sorting the economy, without mentioning the impact Brexit has had and is having.
They’re all fundamentally unserious. But they can’t tell the truth cos the grassroots refuse to hear it.
The governing party is simply refusing to acknowledge the biggest issue the country continues to face, that seeps into everything else. It’s laughable. And tragic.
Because it's not the biggest issue of the day. Inflation is and Brexit makes precisely zero difference to inflation. In case you hadn't noticed the inflation rate across Europe is the same or worse than here.
You want to see issues with Brexit where few exist because you want to be vindicated in voting to sell out the nation to Brussels. It's fine, that's up to you. Really Brexit is neither here nor there, we've left the EU, the problems facing us pre dated it and we continue to face them, unless you think staying in the EU would have magicked up an additional 2m houses and resulted in the death of 1m or so over 80s.
Brexit has weakened the currency and reduced labour supply, both contributing to the inflation crisis.
And has of course added friction and cost to trade with our main market.
Give me some comfort that the Uk is not going to have to ration power this winter? I’m looking at Russian gas cuts in Europe and the Norwegians likely to increase supply to Europe to the detriment of the UK. And it has me worried.
Not a bad time to buy power banks, solar panels, usb heated clothing. Camping gas or spirit stove, etc.
I’ve already done what I can. But there’s several million vulnerable households that rely on power to operate their boiler (no continuous power supply installed to the brains and / or fuel injection pump). And to cook and boil water. And to use their landlines. And quite a few that live in areas where private water companies haven’t bothered invested in backup generators at the pumping stations. How sure are we the cell phone network would be resilient to this? Because it wasn’t over a very wide area of Kent during the storm induced extended cuts earlier this year.
As a country we are far more reliant on electricity than we were in the 70s - 80s, when most of us last experienced regular power outages. I’ll bet loads of households now don’t have any candles or even matches (fewer smokers), no way of accessing info or sending messages without mains power (mobile coverage sketchy, landline phones now fancy mains digital handsets), no way of heating or cooking.
Are we seeing a similar episode of complacent neglect among government in preparing for a very foreseeable crisis, as per Jan - Mar 2020?
Sure we’re not going to see extended cuts lasting for days. But it’s easy to imagine repeated blackouts that end up costing lives due to lack of planning by households and government.
Edit:
I forgot petrol stations. The pumps don’t work without power of course. To add another inconvenience, if power gets rationed or the grid fails to match supply with demand.
I completely agree.
What I'm preparing for is rolling blackouts, the type where you're without power for a few hours or at worst a day, and what you need is to be able to charge your laptop and your phone, and maybe heat up a can of soup or boil a cup of tea. Plus a USB bank powered jacket so I won't get cold without the heating on.
I suspect that since natural gas is only about 44% of the uk grid, that's what we'd end up with in a worst case scenario (bearing in mind we also produce our own gas). Rolling outages of a few hours every day across pockets of the UK, to reduce demand on the grid.
But that's 24 hours or so max. If the situation somehow becomes dramatically worse than that, then it is as you describe above. No power to petrol pumps, people without the ability to cook for days, most people unable to remain connected to news due to reliance on the internet, etc. Society would break down fast.
The good news is I think because of our limited reliance on natural gas and the fact we are able to produce it, albeit not enough, the worst we are looking at is rolling blackouts, rather than total chaos.
Europe however - things could get ugly fast. And unfortunately that is how Putin ends up winning in Ukraine.
Yup. We should all plan for multiple evenings this winter with no lights, heating, communications or power in general. It’s really no big deal for most people if you’ve thought it through even slightly. It could be potentially quite a serious matter for a number of vulnerable households if the power goes off at a time of very cold weather and they have made no preparations at all.
We might get unlucky and have a period of very cold but very still weather. But with any luck we’ll have a blowy mild winter. Much of Europe is in a tricky spot for sure but governments have started mentally preparing their populations for it and begun conversations about how they will approach rationing. We’ve had bugger all here, to the extent that this week Shell’s CEO clearly decided it was time to give some leadership on it.
I want to talk about the Tory leadership and the betting. Not drone on endlessly about it for the thousandth time and summon Scott & Paste.
But its absence from the Tory leadership contest is hugely telling. They know it’s a fuck up, otherwise they’d be trumpeting it’s benefits every time they opened their mouths. But they aren’t. They all witter on about the economy, sorting the economy, without mentioning the impact Brexit has had and is having.
They’re all fundamentally unserious. But they can’t tell the truth cos the grassroots refuse to hear it.
The governing party is simply refusing to acknowledge the biggest issue the country continues to face, that seeps into everything else. It’s laughable. And tragic.
Because it's not the biggest issue of the day. Inflation is and Brexit makes precisely zero difference to inflation. In case you hadn't noticed the inflation rate across Europe is the same or worse than here.
You want to see issues with Brexit where few exist because you want to be vindicated in voting to sell out the nation to Brussels. It's fine, that's up to you. Really Brexit is neither here nor there, we've left the EU, the problems facing us pre dated it and we continue to face them, unless you think staying in the EU would have magicked up an additional 2m houses and resulted in the death of 1m or so over 80s.
Brexit has weakened the currency and reduced labour supply, both contributing to the inflation crisis.
The currency would be weakening with or without Brexit, unless you're suggesting EUR is also going down against USD because of Brexit. As I said just now, either labour supply effects wages or it doesn't. I've been told by liberal economists that it doesn't for the better part of 15 years, if that's no longer the case then sure but that's 15 years of denial about the effect of EU migration on wages out of the window. Pick one.
By the way, I am British and I am entitled to post endless flatulent nonsense all about Britain on a British politics website
Why?
Because
"I hope to retire in various places, including the UK"
That's it. You, Britain, are number 8 on my list of "possible places to retire to", so here is my lecture on your disgusting politics, you awful people, just in case my first 7 retirement plans go wrong
You appear to be nursing a lot of hatred. Seek help.
This is easily solved. You are in America and have no intention of returning to Britain
Go onto the American version of PB.com. YOU LIVE IN AMERICA
Let us argue ourselves in our awful little country, which you loathe - and which you left with much relief - about the merits or otherwise of Brexit, or indeed anything else that concerns us; your opinion does not advance things
I genuinely don't understand this level of bad manners. I'm not joking. No fucking way would I intrude onto an American website and start lecturing them about their disgraceful independent American-ness and their vile hateful politics blah blah. I may THINK that, but I would never do it. And it rather exposes someone that thinks this is socially tolerable
You seem to loathe just as many Brits yourself, especially the young.
Indeed as @Gardenwalker is in much closer alignment to the majority of Britons who think Brexit a historic mistake, it is very likely that @Leon hates the majority of his country folk.
If you say so, but at the same time, the notion of Bregret becomes a sillier and more risible one as time marches on. We became an independent country when we left the EU. We joined many others in that regard, many smaller and with less advantages than we have in 'making it', and managing to do so with a lot less whining. So what is the actual problem? Let's get the eff on with it and stop whining for the tit when we're 8 years old.
We were of course an independent country throughout our membership of the EU.
Yes, just not in any meaningful sense of the word 'independent' or indeed 'country'.
...waits for a list of all those wonderful things we've been able to do since 31 Jan 2020 that we weren't able to do before...
You don’t stop caring for your original home and taking an interest in what happens there just because you’ve emigrated.
It’s a bizarre set of posts. I’ve never seen him have issued with sandpit or others who live overseas only gardenwalker who is absolutely entitled to his views and to post here.
I want to talk about the Tory leadership and the betting. Not drone on endlessly about it for the thousandth time and summon Scott & Paste.
The piece is interesting because it’s about the legacy of Brexit on the race (and the subsequent premiership).
My favourite bit is how - if it’s Rishi v Mordaunt - the hardliners will denounce both as Remainer sell-outs, even though both voted for Brexit (and Mordaunt is a former member of the ERG).
Yes but it's a lot of waffley bollocks.
The talk in this contest is of cost of living crisis, growth, tax, Wokery, and a bit on immigration.
Neither Mordaunt or Rishi are planning to do anything to 'betray' Brexit.
Depends what betray brexit actually is. Does Brexit have to be Boris Johnson **** business Brexit? Nope. Is any movement back to a business Brexit, any overtures to business betraying or destroying Brexit? Not necessarily.
The answers no, it’s not - cuddling up to business with some brexit tweaks in the margins is not betraying brexit.
There are many business leaders who voted for Brexit but disappointed with some of the current deal.
The unarguable bottom line is Boris Brexit deal is not aligned with any sane economic plan - Boris disastrous convention and pepppa pig speeches prove he had nothing to say other than some waffle about levelling up and high skilled high paid jobs.
Cuddling back up with business with realistic and helpful tweaking of the brexit deal is exactly why Sunak and Penny are in the top two, exactly what we do expect from them, and will get.
You have to read between the lines.
What he's really saying is he hopes it's eviscerated now Boris is gone, and he's disappointed the Tory candidates aren't planning to do that.
What's happened to Penny this evening? And, to a lesser extent, where has Kemi's surge come from? Is this all down to Penny's comments from a couple of years ago about transsexuals or has something new happened?
Wondering the same, been away from news and thought maybe something signithad happened - or I'd got. The day wrong for second debate.
Absent that, opportunities for more trading as the market gets overexcited (already had some nice trades of Sunak and Mordaunt, though I missed the opportunity with Truss)
I've said it consistently, while people have been going crazy for one terrible candidate after another. Sunak is the only grown up in the room.
But he wont win a GE. His wife's wealth is too big a factor in distancing him from the swing voters needed.
None of them will win a general election.
Sunak may well stop meltdown.
Not enough for them. If they think they will win anyway, they'll go for someone they want (ie, not Sunak). If they think they will lose anyway, they'll go for someone who will make them happy, even with futile gestures (ie, not Sunak).
By the way, I am British and I am entitled to post endless flatulent nonsense all about Britain on a British politics website
Why?
Because
"I hope to retire in various places, including the UK"
That's it. You, Britain, are number 8 on my list of "possible places to retire to", so here is my lecture on your disgusting politics, you awful people, just in case my first 7 retirement plans go wrong
You appear to be nursing a lot of hatred. Seek help.
This is easily solved. You are in America and have no intention of returning to Britain
Go onto the American version of PB.com. YOU LIVE IN AMERICA
Let us argue ourselves in our awful little country, which you loathe - and which you left with much relief - about the merits or otherwise of Brexit, or indeed anything else that concerns us; your opinion does not advance things
I genuinely don't understand this level of bad manners. I'm not joking. No fucking way would I intrude onto an American website and start lecturing them about their disgraceful independent American-ness and their vile hateful politics blah blah. I may THINK that, but I would never do it. And it rather exposes someone that thinks this is socially tolerable
You seem to loathe just as many Brits yourself, especially the young.
Indeed as @Gardenwalker is in much closer alignment to the majority of Britons who think Brexit a historic mistake, it is very likely that @Leon hates the majority of his country folk.
If you say so, but at the same time, the notion of Bregret becomes a sillier and more risible one as time marches on. We became an independent country when we left the EU. We joined many others in that regard, many smaller and with less advantages than we have in 'making it', and managing to do so with a lot less whining. So what is the actual problem? Let's get the eff on with it and stop whining for the tit when we're 8 years old.
We were of course an independent country throughout our membership of the EU.
Yes, just not in any meaningful sense of the word 'independent' or indeed 'country'.
...waits for a list of all those wonderful things we've been able to do since 31 Jan 2020 that we weren't able to do before...
Truss could win this couldn’t she? Mordaunt seems to have the entire Tory press against her. It’s bizarre. And the weirdly influential Rasputin of modern Toryism David Frost.
If she wins she’ll lead them to a well deserved complete thrashing. But I don’t want a complete thrashing because that will enable Labour to forget, yet again, about electoral reform.
Truss was pretty embarrassing in the debate but Mordaunt was completely invisible. It was a bit of a mystery watching it why so many MPs have offered her their vote. At least Truss embodies a policy direction of a wing of the party. Penny was just a load of empty words.
Rishi as PM, Kemi as Chancellor and TT as foreign sec would be a reasonable outcome for the country for the next two years from here I think.
Some bizarre front pages for sure. Boris as a top gun says express, as the lovable mavericks ratings are soaring.
Telegraph has Truss resplendent in her Thatcher garb. Note how light her lob is now.
Observer has the President, Alok Sharma, threatening to resign if new leader dumps net zero plan.
The Sunday Times turning up the heat on Penny and Rishi. But there’s no,black swan or smoking gun in this weekends papers, so it’s he who laughs last laughs longest (or whatever Andrea Jennings bayed back at the barbarians at the gate).
I want to talk about the Tory leadership and the betting. Not drone on endlessly about it for the thousandth time and summon Scott & Paste.
But its absence from the Tory leadership contest is hugely telling. They know it’s a fuck up, otherwise they’d be trumpeting it’s benefits every time they opened their mouths. But they aren’t. They all witter on about the economy, sorting the economy, without mentioning the impact Brexit has had and is having.
They’re all fundamentally unserious. But they can’t tell the truth cos the grassroots refuse to hear it.
The governing party is simply refusing to acknowledge the biggest issue the country continues to face, that seeps into everything else. It’s laughable. And tragic.
Because it's not the biggest issue of the day. Inflation is and Brexit makes precisely zero difference to inflation. In case you hadn't noticed the inflation rate across Europe is the same or worse than here.
You want to see issues with Brexit where few exist because you want to be vindicated in voting to sell out the nation to Brussels. It's fine, that's up to you. Really Brexit is neither here nor there, we've left the EU, the problems facing us pre dated it and we continue to face them, unless you think staying in the EU would have magicked up an additional 2m houses and resulted in the death of 1m or so over 80s.
Brexit has weakened the currency and reduced labour supply, both contributing to the inflation crisis.
The currency would be weakening with or without Brexit, unless you're suggesting EUR is also going down against USD because of Brexit. As I said just now, either labour supply effects wages or it doesn't. I've been told by liberal economists that it doesn't for the better part of 15 years, if that's no longer the case then sure but that's 15 years of denial about the effect of EU migration on wages out of the window. Pick one.
And yet when the workers ask to be paid at a rate that matches inflation, management and government tell us to f*** off.
Some bizarre front pages for sure. Boris as a top gun says express, as the lovable mavericks ratings are soaring.
Telegraph has Truss resplendent in her Thatcher garb. Note how light her lob is now.
Observer has the President, Alok Sharma, threatening to resign if new leader dumps net zero plan.
The Sunday Times turning up the heat on Penny and Rishi. But there’s no,black swan or smoking gun in this weekends papers, so it’s he who laughs last laughs longest (or whatever Andrea Jennings bayed back at the barbarians at the gate).
Presumably the really dirty kompramat is awaiting the members run off.
The headline is laughable . And Sunak loses points for such drivel . How can EU laws be holding back the UK now , I thought we’d left . The Tories have had years to change any law or is this the case that its a desperate attempt to please the mainly insane Tory membership who still seem to think Brexit never happened .
Mordaunt in serious trouble, looks like the Sunday Times is going to lead on her lies about Self ID. Well spotted @Cyclefree.
That's not really trouble, the Times have been gunning for her from the get go.
Tory MPs and members read the Sunday Times and they have a leaked memo that shows the the policy changed when Kemi and Liz took over not when Penny was on charge as she has claimed on multiple occasions.
The Walter Mitty accusations look like they are true to me.
I don't think Tory MP's need the Times to get their info on this. Penny already seems to have devoted fans and fierce critics amongst the parliamentary party. Members might be different.
Yup. We should all plan for multiple evenings this winter with no lights, heating, communications or power in general. It’s really no big deal for most people if you’ve thought it through even slightly. It could be potentially quite a serious matter for a number of vulnerable households if the power goes off at a time of very cold weather and they have made no preparations at all.
We might get unlucky and have a period of very cold but very still weather. But with any luck we’ll have a blowy mild winter. Much of Europe is in a tricky spot for sure but governments have started mentally preparing their populations for it and begun conversations about how they will approach rationing. We’ve had bugger all here, to the extent that this week Shell’s CEO clearly decided it was time to give some leadership on it.
Certainly was a very mild winter last year as I recall. The main problem will be light as we head into November and December. I certainly remember doing my homework by candlelight in early 1974.
Presumably cutting domestic supplies would be near enough last resort with other sections of the economy told to cut back power usage first. We don't need for example floodlight horse racing or evening football matches if we're being honest.
We could close down the BBC and ITV at 11pm - Sky at 9pm perhaps....
The headline is laughable . And Sunak loses points for such drivel . How can EU laws be holding back the UK now , I thought we’d left . The Tories have had years to change any law or is this the case that its a desperate attempt to please the mainly insane Tory membership who still seem to think Brexit never happened .
That article says that a task force will identify such laws in Rishi’s “first hundred days”.
I believe this would be the third or perhaps fourth attempt to do so…
Comments
It should calm down a little now.
The answers no, it’s not - cuddling up to business with some brexit tweaks in the margins is not betraying brexit.
There are many business leaders who voted for Brexit but disappointed with some of the current deal.
The unarguable bottom line is Boris Brexit deal is not aligned with any sane economic plan - Boris disastrous convention and pepppa pig speeches prove he had nothing to say other than some waffle about levelling up and high skilled high paid jobs.
Cuddling back up with business with realistic and helpful tweaking of the brexit deal is exactly why Sunak and Penny are in the top two, exactly what we do expect from them, and will get.
Bowled off the last ball needing 4 to tie and win on countback.
NO BALL.
2 needed. And free hit.
Lancashire failed to get a run a ball off last 8 overs.
Looks that way.
What times we live in.
⚙️PB administration cogtastic post⚙️
BenPointer kindly flagged up my gratuitous email display a long time ago when I was new, I did untick to turn it off. When my account was set back to applicant I lost some settings and an option screen to change them, such as to keep my email unpublic can’t be found in applicant status, nor change picture, can’t message another poster on PB, I could reply to old message in box, I only ever spoke to one other PBer on messaging.
When the options came back the keep email private box appeared it needed my password to become unticked. Anyone gets reset to applicant or banned you might find your preferences have changed.
Another key point is Morris Dancer was right, one thing RCS sent to me i found in a junk folder. 🤦♀️ And my junk must get taken out regularly because it only showed one days junk. RCS posted it’s hard for him to contact people behind scenes to sort queries out,
Hope this helps. ☺️
Not my call but I hope the mods will be merciful.
That was some bowling.
48 needed off 44 balls.
Nice feeling.
‘Some observers blame elevated UK inflation on war-related food and energy shocks. Such assertions fall flat for several reasons…
‘… Brexit has amplified the inflationary impact of a simultaneous common shock. By ending the free movement of EU migrant workers to the UK, the UK government has unilaterally cut the labor supply and its elasticity. By adding new tariff and nontariff trade barriers, the British government has slashed purchasing power and available imports, and it has created inflation during the staggered implementation of the Brexit deal. The UK officially exited the EU in December 2020. By creating uncertainty about UK economic policy and investment prospects, Brexit has weakened the anchor for inflation expectations.’
https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/brexit-driving-inflation-higher-uk-its-european-peers-after-identical-supply
That seems to be the emerging consensus. There’s loads of stuff in a similar vein if you care to look for it. Brexit impacts on everything. It’s why the Tory candidates aren’t mentioning it.
And there are plenty of other things about the Tories and their policies that fill me with contempt. That pre-dated Brexit. They’re fucking you hard enough, tax wise, or so you say. betraying you to cosset the oldies. God knows why you’re defending them.
Next PM
2.56 Penny Mordaunt 39%
2.72 Rishi Sunak 37%
6.2 Liz Truss 16%
14 Kemi Badenoch 7%
65 Tom Tugendhat
310 Dominic Raab
To make the final two
1.09 Rishi Sunak 92%
1.55 Penny Mordaunt 65%
3.2 Liz Truss 31%
7.4 Kemi Badenoch 14%
44 Tom Tugendhat
Zen betting.
@PBModerator, hope you're ready.
Post holiday blues?
Or perhaps London isn't the best place for him despite how he goes on about it?
I called this right couple of days ago, Sunak and Penny go to the membership with quite a big margin to whoever is third. Though I am no as confident now Penny does beat Rishi.
Which means (a) it's not done, from the horse's mouth and (b) it is HIGHLY relevant to the PM horserace.
https://twitter.com/Daily_Express/status/1548069609340751873
In 2015 and 2016 however Labour members and registered supporters voted for Corbyn
Can't be!
Hopefully by Tuesday so he can explain how we're all melting in the 45°C heat.
I am still trying to work out why @Leon said I was “racist”.
Is it because I said that “It Ain’t Half Hot Mum” was actually quite funny?
We're due to run a deficit of £100 billion in the current financial year and the OBR was making optimistic noises about getting that down to £32 billion in the next five years.
Looking at some of the public spending, state pensions account for £110.6 billion (about 10%). That's a tiny bit less than goes on capital investment spending (£114 billion) with the big ticket item health and social care at £168 billion. Debt interest comes in at £87 billion, Education at £77 billion and Defence at £32 billion.
In effect, were it not for the debt interest payments we'd be not too badly off.
However, I simply can't see where the idea of large tax cuts comes from - the theory presumably (thank you, Mr Laffer) is lower taxes will stimulate more activity and bring in more revenue. I'm just not convinced by that - even by 2026-27, spending will only be 41.1% of national income, revenue will be 40.1%.
This isn't of course solely a challenge for the Conservative leadership hopefuls - it's a challenge for Labour as well. Covid made a huge difference but even before that successive Chancellors borrowed to keep the show on the road with interest rates at historic lows and I suspect those days are over.
How do you reduce the deficit and aim to bring the public finances into balance or ideally surplus? The options are straightforward but the political problem is as soon as times are good the Government of the day immediately wants to "reward" us with tax cuts (or bribes if you prefer). Ken Clarke famously eschewed tax cuts in the interests of budget surplus and the opportunity to pay down debt and reduce interest payments - that would be a bold strategy for Rachel Reeves to follow or example but would certainly make sense (to be fair Brown followed Clarke's spending plans into 1999 and produced budget surpluses).
The reality is that the same liberal wanky economists who said that are now saying this. They were wrong then and they are wrong now. Our inflation is being driven by commodity prices rising due to shortages and political turmoil alongside USD surging as a safe haven. Both the UK and EU are similarly effected. The difference this time round is that the UK still has headroom to raise rates, the EU hasn't.
https://twitter.com/Edwina_Currie/status/1548406471200608258?s=20&t=84BAa6MH6vXCo4-eeqpUHw
What I'm preparing for is rolling blackouts, the type where you're without power for a few hours or at worst a day, and what you need is to be able to charge your laptop and your phone, and maybe heat up a can of soup or boil a cup of tea. Plus a USB bank powered jacket so I won't get cold without the heating on.
I suspect that since natural gas is only about 44% of the uk grid, that's what we'd end up with in a worst case scenario (bearing in mind we also produce our own gas). Rolling outages of a few hours every day across pockets of the UK, to reduce demand on the grid.
But that's 24 hours or so max. If the situation somehow becomes dramatically worse than that, then it is as you describe above. No power to petrol pumps, people without the ability to cook for days, most people unable to remain connected to news due to reliance on the internet, etc. Society would break down fast.
The good news is I think because of our limited reliance on natural gas and the fact we are able to produce it, albeit not enough, the worst we are looking at is rolling blackouts, rather than total chaos.
Europe however - things could get ugly fast. And unfortunately that is how Putin ends up winning in Ukraine.
Or is it two? Or four? Or six?
Who knows?
The last two episodes really are something special. The Sgt Major really was a tragic figure.
How can the Tories come together after such an unpleasant leadership campaign.
I reckon it will be the red dress tomorrow. Something to distract from the garbage coming out of her mouth.
The hundred? One year of history...
The Walter Mitty accusations look like they are true to me.
If she wins she’ll lead them to a well deserved complete thrashing. But I don’t want a complete thrashing because that will enable Labour to forget, yet again, about electoral reform.
We might get unlucky and have a period of very cold but very still weather. But with any luck we’ll have a blowy mild winter. Much of Europe is in a tricky spot for sure but governments have started mentally preparing their populations for it and begun conversations about how they will approach rationing. We’ve had bugger all here, to the extent that this week Shell’s CEO clearly decided it was time to give some leadership on it.
Oh.
What he's really saying is he hopes it's eviscerated now Boris is gone, and he's disappointed the Tory candidates aren't planning to do that.
Absent that, opportunities for more trading as the market gets overexcited (already had some nice trades of Sunak and Mordaunt, though I missed the opportunity with Truss)
Nothing good can come from that.
We should all know that by now.
Rishi as PM, Kemi as Chancellor and TT as foreign sec would be a reasonable outcome for the country for the next two years from here I think.
Telegraph has Truss resplendent in her Thatcher garb. Note how light her lob is now.
Observer has the President, Alok Sharma, threatening to resign if new leader dumps net zero plan.
The Sunday Times turning up the heat on Penny and Rishi. But there’s no,black swan or smoking gun in this weekends papers, so it’s he who laughs last laughs longest (or whatever Andrea Jennings bayed back at the barbarians at the gate).
Presumably cutting domestic supplies would be near enough last resort with other sections of the economy told to cut back power usage first. We don't need for example floodlight horse racing or evening football matches if we're being honest.
We could close down the BBC and ITV at 11pm - Sky at 9pm perhaps....
I believe this would be the third or perhaps fourth attempt to do so…