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Rishi looks set to be Next PM betting favourite once again – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited July 2022 in General
imageRishi looks set to be Next PM betting favourite once again – politicalbetting.com

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  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 49,002
    First!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,677
    Second, like Rishi
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,716
    The music around Truss from the right has worried me this evening. The right are hell bent on subjecting us to a totally inadequate leader who will lead to the tories to a stinking electoral defeat

    There’s no positive outcome with Truss.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,931
    It feels like Rishi has the mo. In a different class to the others. Could be a compelling story. The Tory party will deserve kudos. But how will the Boris old guard react?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Rishi now fav again
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644

    The music around Truss from the right has worried me this evening. The right are hell bent on subjecting us to a totally inadequate leader who will lead to the tories to a stinking electoral defeat

    There’s no positive outcome with Truss.

    Now is the time perhaps to bet on Truss. If the Right are sticking with her, she’ll make it to the final three and she’ll probably get most of Badenoch’s transfers, in which case she makes it to the final two, with a strong anyone-but-Sunak vote behind her.

    Yes, she‘ll be totally inadequate, but I think the Tory party may still pick her.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103

    Chris Keating
    @chriskeating
    ·
    52m
    The public found the debate interesting, boring, informative, predictable and pointless - displaying their usual consistency...

    https://twitter.com/chriskeating/status/1548362485941407746
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,373

    The music around Truss from the right has worried me this evening. The right are hell bent on subjecting us to a totally inadequate leader who will lead to the tories to a stinking electoral defeat

    There’s no positive outcome with Truss.

    Now is the time perhaps to bet on Truss. If the Right are sticking with her, she’ll make it to the final three and she’ll probably get most of Badenoch’s transfers, in which case she makes it to the final two, with a strong anyone-but-Sunak vote behind her.

    Yes, she‘ll be totally inadequate, but I think the Tory party may still pick her.
    Or Badenoch could get Truss’s transfers.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    12m
    The latest
    @ConHome
    shows Mordaunt is very much beatable. Under scrutiny her notional advantage with members has melted away very quickly.

    https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,716

    The music around Truss from the right has worried me this evening. The right are hell bent on subjecting us to a totally inadequate leader who will lead to the tories to a stinking electoral defeat

    There’s no positive outcome with Truss.

    Now is the time perhaps to bet on Truss. If the Right are sticking with her, she’ll make it to the final three and she’ll probably get most of Badenoch’s transfers, in which case she makes it to the final two, with a strong anyone-but-Sunak vote behind her.

    Yes, she‘ll be totally inadequate, but I think the Tory party may still pick her.
    As a historic Tory voter, I just feel sad if that is the case. The party will have voted itself into a massive hole. I couldn’t ever imagine voting for a Truss led Tory party
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,272
    Sorry if this has been discussed to death but what happened with the Mordaunt odds at the end of this chart?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Suella Braverman MP
    @SuellaBraverman
    ·
    1h
    I’m proud to be backing
    @trussliz
    and I encourage all colleagues to get behind her: a proven track record of leadership, serious plans for the tough times ahead and a champion for common sense conservative values. #LizForLeader

    https://twitter.com/SuellaBraverman/status/1548358036825092097

    ===

    Continuity Boris has swung into action after last night's disaster.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 105,481
    EPG said:

    Sorry if this has been discussed to death but what happened with the Mordaunt odds at the end of this chart?

    ConHome poll and a story in the Sunday Times.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 11,082
    The election of either Sunak or Badenoch would be a major international news story simply on account of their ethnic heritage. And would by itself generate a great deal of positive worldwide publicity and good will for the UK, as election of Obama did for US.

    And not just in wokish circles. Especially as both S & B are Conservatives.

    Selection of Mordaunt or Truss would not be a negative, but hardly big news to the world after Thatcher and May. UK's been there, done that.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    EPG said:

    Sorry if this has been discussed to death but what happened with the Mordaunt odds at the end of this chart?

    They dropped off a transgender cliff.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Mark Francois will end up looking like that fat Russian general in Dr Zhivago when the soldiers revolt if he tries to push harder to get the MPs to vote for Truss.

    I'll say it again. A disproportionate number of MPs in this Parliament are very vulnerable to a 4-5% swing. Truss as PM would almost certainly mean the Tories getting a bloodbath, never mind an ordinary defeat.

    The MPs know this.

    The music around Truss from the right has worried me this evening. The right are hell bent on subjecting us to a totally inadequate leader who will lead to the tories to a stinking electoral defeat

    There’s no positive outcome with Truss.

    Now is the time perhaps to bet on Truss. If the Right are sticking with her, she’ll make it to the final three and she’ll probably get most of Badenoch’s transfers, in which case she makes it to the final two, with a strong anyone-but-Sunak vote behind her.

    Yes, she‘ll be totally inadequate, but I think the Tory party may still pick her.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 49,018
    If I had a big ego (ahem) I'd say I just moved the markets.

    I said I was laying Penny heavily as favourite less than 2 hours ago and now...she is no longer favourite.

    But, she'll only be knocked off her perch if the Right pick one of Truss or Kemi.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,953
    It's pretty clear that nobody has very deep support amongst the members.

    So when it gets to the Final I think the debates will be key.

    I think it's entirely possible Rishi wins the members vote by a wide margin - as he will be seen as far more credible than whoever he faces.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,272

    EPG said:

    Sorry if this has been discussed to death but what happened with the Mordaunt odds at the end of this chart?

    ConHome poll and a story in the Sunday Times.
    Thanks. Risk of lots of smug PBers if she doesn't make it to the final two.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,716

    The election of either Sunak or Badenoch would be a major international news story simply on account of their ethnic heritage. And would by itself generate a great deal of positive worldwide publicity and good will for the UK, as election of Obama did for US.

    And not just in wokish circles. Especially as both S & B are Conservatives.

    Selection of Mordaunt or Truss would not be a negative, but hardly big news to the world after Thatcher and May. UK's been there, done that.

    Except choosing Truss would be a negative. Shame Johnson division, just fronted up by someone with 0 charisma or ability to inspire
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,604
    This is exceptionally nerdy but as I understand it the Con Home survey is based on a panel of 800 members. Do any of the polling spods on here have a view on their methodology? It appears to have shifted the market a lot this afternoon
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644

    The music around Truss from the right has worried me this evening. The right are hell bent on subjecting us to a totally inadequate leader who will lead to the tories to a stinking electoral defeat

    There’s no positive outcome with Truss.

    Now is the time perhaps to bet on Truss. If the Right are sticking with her, she’ll make it to the final three and she’ll probably get most of Badenoch’s transfers, in which case she makes it to the final two, with a strong anyone-but-Sunak vote behind her.

    Yes, she‘ll be totally inadequate, but I think the Tory party may still pick her.
    Or Badenoch could get Truss’s transfers.
    If Truss goes out before Kemi, sure, but she was way ahead in the last MP ballot. The big names on the Right are still supporting her. They’d need to switch to Kemi and do it very quickly. It seems very unlikely to me. The current betting on Kemi gives her an 8% chance. That feels about right to me.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,677
    MrEd said:

    Mark Francois will end up looking like that fat Russian general in Dr Zhivago when the soldiers revolt if he tries to push harder to get the MPs to vote for Truss.

    I'll say it again. A disproportionate number of MPs in this Parliament are very vulnerable to a 4-5% swing. Truss as PM would almost certainly mean the Tories getting a bloodbath, never mind an ordinary defeat.

    The MPs know this.

    The music around Truss from the right has worried me this evening. The right are hell bent on subjecting us to a totally inadequate leader who will lead to the tories to a stinking electoral defeat

    There’s no positive outcome with Truss.

    Now is the time perhaps to bet on Truss. If the Right are sticking with her, she’ll make it to the final three and she’ll probably get most of Badenoch’s transfers, in which case she makes it to the final two, with a strong anyone-but-Sunak vote behind her.

    Yes, she‘ll be totally inadequate, but I think the Tory party may still pick her.
    Truss would be an amazing gift to the LibDems in the south.

    All the more remarkable considering she used to be one!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,677
    Monday/Tuesday forecast for the bottom of the Island, where I am, is 28C, whereas the top of the Island, just ten miles away, is forecast 36C.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,370

    A Tory activist friend has made the most compelling argument about why it cannot be Rishi and why he'll back anyone except Rishi if he's in the final two.

    He said if Rishi wins, I'll never shut up about the fact I backed Rishi at 250/1.

    I know this will come as a galloping shock to you all, but apparently I am unbearably smug, particularly when it comes to betting.

    Oh, no! Not particularly!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    MrEd said:

    Mark Francois will end up looking like that fat Russian general in Dr Zhivago when the soldiers revolt if he tries to push harder to get the MPs to vote for Truss.

    I'll say it again. A disproportionate number of MPs in this Parliament are very vulnerable to a 4-5% swing. Truss as PM would almost certainly mean the Tories getting a bloodbath, never mind an ordinary defeat.

    The MPs know this.

    The music around Truss from the right has worried me this evening. The right are hell bent on subjecting us to a totally inadequate leader who will lead to the tories to a stinking electoral defeat

    There’s no positive outcome with Truss.

    Now is the time perhaps to bet on Truss. If the Right are sticking with her, she’ll make it to the final three and she’ll probably get most of Badenoch’s transfers, in which case she makes it to the final two, with a strong anyone-but-Sunak vote behind her.

    Yes, she‘ll be totally inadequate, but I think the Tory party may still pick her.
    Good point.

    Can't see her keeping a single Red Wall seat with whole 'I am Thatcher reborn' act and in order to compensate for being a Remainer she will overdo the whole Pure Brexit™ thing and so piss off a load of southern professional blue seats.

  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,716
    IanB2 said:

    MrEd said:

    Mark Francois will end up looking like that fat Russian general in Dr Zhivago when the soldiers revolt if he tries to push harder to get the MPs to vote for Truss.

    I'll say it again. A disproportionate number of MPs in this Parliament are very vulnerable to a 4-5% swing. Truss as PM would almost certainly mean the Tories getting a bloodbath, never mind an ordinary defeat.

    The MPs know this.

    The music around Truss from the right has worried me this evening. The right are hell bent on subjecting us to a totally inadequate leader who will lead to the tories to a stinking electoral defeat

    There’s no positive outcome with Truss.

    Now is the time perhaps to bet on Truss. If the Right are sticking with her, she’ll make it to the final three and she’ll probably get most of Badenoch’s transfers, in which case she makes it to the final two, with a strong anyone-but-Sunak vote behind her.

    Yes, she‘ll be totally inadequate, but I think the Tory party may still pick her.
    Truss would be an amazing gift to the LibDems in the south.

    All the more remarkable considering she used to be one!
    Yup. A total loss of the “blue wall” on the cards

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644

    If I had a big ego (ahem) I'd say I just moved the markets.

    I said I was laying Penny heavily as favourite less than 2 hours ago and now...she is no longer favourite.

    But, she'll only be knocked off her perch if the Right pick one of Truss or Kemi.

    The voting system kind of means the Right don’t need to actively make the choice. One of them will go out before the other, and which point the votes transfer to the other.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,993
    edited July 2022
    @rcs1000

    Give me some comfort that the Uk is not going to have to ration power this winter? I’m looking at Russian gas cuts in Europe and the Norwegians likely to increase supply to Europe to the detriment of the UK. And it has me worried.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644
    DougSeal said:

    This is exceptionally nerdy but as I understand it the Con Home survey is based on a panel of 800 members. Do any of the polling spods on here have a view on their methodology? It appears to have shifted the market a lot this afternoon

    The important thing is sampling. You want a random sample of Conservative party members. ConHome survey participants are not a random sample of Conservative party members. It can barely be considered a poll.

    So, the question is how close is it to representing the party membership. That I don’t know. I understand it was fairly close in the last leadership election.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 49,002

    The music around Truss from the right has worried me this evening. The right are hell bent on subjecting us to a totally inadequate leader who will lead to the tories to a stinking electoral defeat

    There’s no positive outcome with Truss.

    Now is the time perhaps to bet on Truss. If the Right are sticking with her, she’ll make it to the final three and she’ll probably get most of Badenoch’s transfers, in which case she makes it to the final two, with a strong anyone-but-Sunak vote behind her.

    Yes, she‘ll be totally inadequate, but I think the Tory party may still pick her.
    Yes, I think that's right. She's got a better chance of making the last two than the markets think.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,348
    Clearly the betting markets are behind tonight's ConHome survey which have Badenoch and Truss ahead of Mordaunt and Sunak.

    The Tories are drifting right and Johnson may prove to have been the most moderate Tory leader this decade ironically

    https://twitter.com/ConHome/status/1548359097677795330?s=20&t=awKYCjbTL84bbYzosuoH0A
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 49,002

    The music around Truss from the right has worried me this evening. The right are hell bent on subjecting us to a totally inadequate leader who will lead to the tories to a stinking electoral defeat

    There’s no positive outcome with Truss.

    Now is the time perhaps to bet on Truss. If the Right are sticking with her, she’ll make it to the final three and she’ll probably get most of Badenoch’s transfers, in which case she makes it to the final two, with a strong anyone-but-Sunak vote behind her.

    Yes, she‘ll be totally inadequate, but I think the Tory party may still pick her.
    Or Badenoch could get Truss’s transfers.
    It all depends on:

    (a) Do Penny backers stay with her
    (b) How Suella's backers break

    If the answers are yes, and 50-50, then Badenoch is next to leave the party. And Badenoch either needs to pick up votes directly from Truss or for TT to stay in for another round, giving her more time to build momentum.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,348

    DougSeal said:

    This is exceptionally nerdy but as I understand it the Con Home survey is based on a panel of 800 members. Do any of the polling spods on here have a view on their methodology? It appears to have shifted the market a lot this afternoon

    The important thing is sampling. You want a random sample of Conservative party members. ConHome survey participants are not a random sample of Conservative party members. It can barely be considered a poll.

    So, the question is how close is it to representing the party membership. That I don’t know. I understand it was fairly close in the last leadership election.
    The last ConHome results were very close to last week's Yougov Tory members poll
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 11,082
    FPT - by Flanner:

    The Vatican doesn't allow (or at least doesn't allow in the Latin Rite Churches, which are pretty much everywhere most of us think of as having Catholic Churches) ordained priests to take part in party politics, or in any civil legislatures). This has nothing to do with "challenges to the Pope's authority", but with the Gospel instruction to separate "the things that are Caesar's from the things that are God's" and with the now highly discredited history of the Church's involvement with temporal power.

    The policy these days is a great deal more fundamental than clerical celibacy (a relatively recent policy with more exceptions than most people understand: my own parish has a married parish priest and, when he's away, usually gets its locums from the local pool of other married Catholic priests) or the restriction of ordination to men (which I'd bet won't last this century)

    SSI - One major reason why Pope John Paul II enacted ban on priest in (elected) politics, was to stifle political careers of priests who were out of line with Vatican orthodoxy. Key American example being Father Robert Drinan (D-Massachusetts) of Boston, who was pro-choice on abortion and very prominent progressive politico, famous for opposing Vietnam War.

    Another Catholic priest in the US House at same period was Father Robert Cornell (D-Wisconsin) of Green Bay, who was a liberal Democrat but pro-life. Though the Vatican didn't have anything against HIM, he got caught by the same edict, since he - like Father Drinan - wished to remain in the priesthood.

    Had the pleasure of meeting Father Bob after he left Congress, and was head of a small Catholic college near Green Bay. A jolly friar, he was not too bent out of shape by being ordered out of Congress, and NOT by the voters.

    Father Bob did tell me that the powers-that-be in Rome had assured him that, whatever happened, HE was not going to be asked to resign his seat in the US House. Drinan was the guy they wanted to get, not him. Yet the ax fell on him anyway.

    When he complained about this to his bishop in Wisconsin, that wise old cleric replied, "Bob, you've got to understand, we've only been a nation for two hundred years. These assholes have been practicing duplicity for two centuries."

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Drinan

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_John_Cornell
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,571
    HYUFD said:

    Clearly the betting markets are behind tonight's ConHome survey which have Badenoch and Truss ahead of Mordaunt and Sunak.

    The Tories are drifting right and Johnson may prove to have been the most moderate Tory leader this decade ironically

    https://twitter.com/ConHome/status/1548359097677795330?s=20&t=awKYCjbTL84bbYzosuoH0A

    Drifting towards electoral oblivion...
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 2,080
    Liz isn't going to win (hopefully) 👍
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567

    What really boggles the mind about this Ashcroft members survey is that Tories watched the debate last night and apparently thought "Liz Truss is doing well".

    They shouldn't allow the vote to anyone who was a Tory party member when Boris was elected. Because they are all mental.

    There is something deeply wrong with our glorious unwritten constitution if it lets these fruitcakes and loonies choose who leads the country.
    I really don't see why. Parliament could pass a law at any time to provide more rules, we had a suggestion earlier to that very effect, about needing a GE if this happens. A written constitution wouldn't necessarily change the current situation anyway, it would depend what was put into it.

    It isn't an unwritten constitution that is causing a problem, it is a lack of desire to change the requirements. (which is not hard to do in this country).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,348
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Clearly the betting markets are behind tonight's ConHome survey which have Badenoch and Truss ahead of Mordaunt and Sunak.

    The Tories are drifting right and Johnson may prove to have been the most moderate Tory leader this decade ironically

    https://twitter.com/ConHome/status/1548359097677795330?s=20&t=awKYCjbTL84bbYzosuoH0A

    Drifting towards electoral oblivion...

    FPT - by Flanner:

    The Vatican doesn't allow (or at least doesn't allow in the Latin Rite Churches, which are pretty much everywhere most of us think of as having Catholic Churches) ordained priests to take part in party politics, or in any civil legislatures). This has nothing to do with "challenges to the Pope's authority", but with the Gospel instruction to separate "the things that are Caesar's from the things that are God's" and with the now highly discredited history of the Church's involvement with temporal power.

    The policy these days is a great deal more fundamental than clerical celibacy (a relatively recent policy with more exceptions than most people understand: my own parish has a married parish priest and, when he's away, usually gets its locums from the local pool of other married Catholic priests) or the restriction of ordination to men (which I'd bet won't last this century)

    SSI - One major reason why Pope John Paul II enacted ban on priest in (elected) politics, was to stifle political careers of priests who were out of line with Vatican orthodoxy. Key American example being Father Robert Drinan (D-Massachusetts) of Boston, who was pro-choice on abortion and very prominent progressive politico, famous for opposing Vietnam War.

    Another Catholic priest in the US House at same period was Father Robert Cornell (D-Wisconsin) of Green Bay, who was a liberal Democrat but pro-life. Though the Vatican didn't have anything against HIM, he got caught by the same edict, since he - like Father Drinan - wished to remain in the priesthood.

    Had the pleasure of meeting Father Bob after he left Congress, and was head of a small Catholic college near Green Bay. A jolly friar, he was not too bent out of shape by being ordered out of Congress, and NOT by the voters.

    Father Bob did tell me that the powers-that-be in Rome had assured him that, whatever happened, HE was not going to be asked to resign his seat in the US House. Drinan was the guy they wanted to get, not him. Yet the ax fell on him anyway.

    When he complained about this to his bishop in Wisconsin, that wise old cleric replied, "Bob, you've got to understand, we've only been a nation for two hundred years. These assholes have been practicing duplicity for two centuries."

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Drinan

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_John_Cornell

    The Vatican were happy to have Bishops in the House of Lords before the Reformation however
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 11,082

    The election of either Sunak or Badenoch would be a major international news story simply on account of their ethnic heritage. And would by itself generate a great deal of positive worldwide publicity and good will for the UK, as election of Obama did for US.

    And not just in wokish circles. Especially as both S & B are Conservatives.

    Selection of Mordaunt or Truss would not be a negative, but hardly big news to the world after Thatcher and May. UK's been there, done that.

    Except choosing Truss would be a negative. Shame Johnson division, just fronted up by someone with 0 charisma or ability to inspire
    Nobody in USA outside of Foggy Bottom has foggiest idea who she is.

    IF you mean her PMship would NOT boost British prestige here, you could be correct.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567

    IanB2 said:

    MrEd said:

    Mark Francois will end up looking like that fat Russian general in Dr Zhivago when the soldiers revolt if he tries to push harder to get the MPs to vote for Truss.

    I'll say it again. A disproportionate number of MPs in this Parliament are very vulnerable to a 4-5% swing. Truss as PM would almost certainly mean the Tories getting a bloodbath, never mind an ordinary defeat.

    The MPs know this.

    The music around Truss from the right has worried me this evening. The right are hell bent on subjecting us to a totally inadequate leader who will lead to the tories to a stinking electoral defeat

    There’s no positive outcome with Truss.

    Now is the time perhaps to bet on Truss. If the Right are sticking with her, she’ll make it to the final three and she’ll probably get most of Badenoch’s transfers, in which case she makes it to the final two, with a strong anyone-but-Sunak vote behind her.

    Yes, she‘ll be totally inadequate, but I think the Tory party may still pick her.
    Truss would be an amazing gift to the LibDems in the south.

    All the more remarkable considering she used to be one!
    Yup. A total loss of the “blue wall” on the cards

    Hard to believe she was a former Lib Dem.

    She's like one of those former porn stars who finds God, then spends the rest of their life campaigning against fapping, saying it is second gravest sin after homosexuality.
    I did enjoy Guru-Murthy introducing her in the debate as having been a LD at university. I like to think several Tory Members spat out their evening gin and popped their monacles to discover that.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    If Biden chooses to run again he will be challenged in the Democratic primaries, as Carter was by Edward Kennedy in 1980. It is by no means certain Biden would prevail.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11018847/ANDREW-NEIL-Trump-set-run-U-S-riven-Civil-War.html
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567

    Liz isn't going to win (hopefully) 👍

    She will if she gets in the final two. Or so my money says at any rate.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,716
    Presumably we’re expecting some more polls / stories tonight…
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103

    Presumably we’re expecting some more polls / stories tonight…

    Boy, are we expecting some stories tonight.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,415
    moonshine said:

    @rcs1000

    Give me some comfort that the Uk is not going to have to ration power this winter? I’m looking at Russian gas cuts in Europe and the Norwegians likely to increase supply to Europe to the detriment of the UK. And it has me worried.

    Not a bad time to buy power banks, solar panels, usb heated clothing. Camping gas or spirit stove, etc.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Rentoul says Sunak may be the David Miliband candidate.

    Surely he must read PB - as several of us have been posting that thought on and off for months:




    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1548285188202827781
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,859

    If Biden chooses to run again he will be challenged in the Democratic primaries, as Carter was by Edward Kennedy in 1980. It is by no means certain Biden would prevail.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11018847/ANDREW-NEIL-Trump-set-run-U-S-riven-Civil-War.html

    I think he'll beat Newsom
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,154

    MrEd said:

    Mark Francois will end up looking like that fat Russian general in Dr Zhivago when the soldiers revolt if he tries to push harder to get the MPs to vote for Truss.

    I'll say it again. A disproportionate number of MPs in this Parliament are very vulnerable to a 4-5% swing. Truss as PM would almost certainly mean the Tories getting a bloodbath, never mind an ordinary defeat.

    The MPs know this.

    The music around Truss from the right has worried me this evening. The right are hell bent on subjecting us to a totally inadequate leader who will lead to the tories to a stinking electoral defeat

    There’s no positive outcome with Truss.

    Now is the time perhaps to bet on Truss. If the Right are sticking with her, she’ll make it to the final three and she’ll probably get most of Badenoch’s transfers, in which case she makes it to the final two, with a strong anyone-but-Sunak vote behind her.

    Yes, she‘ll be totally inadequate, but I think the Tory party may still pick her.
    Good point.

    Can't see her keeping a single Red Wall seat with whole 'I am Thatcher reborn' act and in order to compensate for being a Remainer she will overdo the whole Pure Brexit™ thing and so piss off a load of southern professional blue seats.

    Red Wall seats will also be kept by their local MPs.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,348
    Pulpstar said:

    If Biden chooses to run again he will be challenged in the Democratic primaries, as Carter was by Edward Kennedy in 1980. It is by no means certain Biden would prevail.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11018847/ANDREW-NEIL-Trump-set-run-U-S-riven-Civil-War.html

    I think he'll beat Newsom
    Maybe not Buttigieg
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 11,022
    I've said it consistently, while people have been going crazy for one terrible candidate after another. Sunak is the only grown up in the room.
  • JonWCJonWC Posts: 282
    Polling the Tory membership must be horrendously difficult. I can't see any way you could get the data to have a properly representative sample unless you are CCHQ. I accept that ConHome has been good before though.

    I find it very hard to believe Tory members would go for PM. She strikes me as a hybrid of Nicola Murray and Boris but what do I know.

    Had a small bet on Badenoch yesterday.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    If Truss is in the final two then the Tory members can choose (fantasy) ideological purity and precipitate electoral disaster or vote for the other candidate.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,859
    The broadside against Penny has been absolutely savage.
    If it ends up as Rishi vs Truss it'll be wall to wall shithousery on him from the mail and telegraph
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 17,643
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    MrEd said:

    Mark Francois will end up looking like that fat Russian general in Dr Zhivago when the soldiers revolt if he tries to push harder to get the MPs to vote for Truss.

    I'll say it again. A disproportionate number of MPs in this Parliament are very vulnerable to a 4-5% swing. Truss as PM would almost certainly mean the Tories getting a bloodbath, never mind an ordinary defeat.

    The MPs know this.

    The music around Truss from the right has worried me this evening. The right are hell bent on subjecting us to a totally inadequate leader who will lead to the tories to a stinking electoral defeat

    There’s no positive outcome with Truss.

    Now is the time perhaps to bet on Truss. If the Right are sticking with her, she’ll make it to the final three and she’ll probably get most of Badenoch’s transfers, in which case she makes it to the final two, with a strong anyone-but-Sunak vote behind her.

    Yes, she‘ll be totally inadequate, but I think the Tory party may still pick her.
    Truss would be an amazing gift to the LibDems in the south.

    All the more remarkable considering she used to be one!
    Yup. A total loss of the “blue wall” on the cards

    Hard to believe she was a former Lib Dem.

    She's like one of those former porn stars who finds God, then spends the rest of their life campaigning against fapping, saying it is second gravest sin after homosexuality.
    I did enjoy Guru-Murthy introducing her in the debate as having been a LD at university. I like to think several Tory Members spat out their evening gin and popped their monacles to discover that.
    Is a monacle a uni-testicle?
    I too imagine Tory Members like that.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If Biden chooses to run again he will be challenged in the Democratic primaries, as Carter was by Edward Kennedy in 1980. It is by no means certain Biden would prevail.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11018847/ANDREW-NEIL-Trump-set-run-U-S-riven-Civil-War.html

    I think he'll beat Newsom
    Maybe not Buttigieg
    Buttigieg has though a massive problem with the Black primary vote. Or did. Maybe next time it will be different?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,949
    Betfair next PM

    2.58 Rishi Sunak 39%
    2.74 Penny Mordaunt 36%
    6.4 Liz Truss 16%
    12.5 Kemi Badenoch 8%
    80 Tom Tugendhat
    310 Dominic Raab

    To make the final two
    1.09 Rishi Sunak 92%
    1.42 Penny Mordaunt 70%
    3.1 Liz Truss 32%
    9.4 Kemi Badenoch 11%
    40 Tom Tugendhat

    Note discrepancy on Kemi: 12 to win but 9 to be in top two.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,696
    MattW said:

    MrEd said:

    Mark Francois will end up looking like that fat Russian general in Dr Zhivago when the soldiers revolt if he tries to push harder to get the MPs to vote for Truss.

    I'll say it again. A disproportionate number of MPs in this Parliament are very vulnerable to a 4-5% swing. Truss as PM would almost certainly mean the Tories getting a bloodbath, never mind an ordinary defeat.

    The MPs know this.

    The music around Truss from the right has worried me this evening. The right are hell bent on subjecting us to a totally inadequate leader who will lead to the tories to a stinking electoral defeat

    There’s no positive outcome with Truss.

    Now is the time perhaps to bet on Truss. If the Right are sticking with her, she’ll make it to the final three and she’ll probably get most of Badenoch’s transfers, in which case she makes it to the final two, with a strong anyone-but-Sunak vote behind her.

    Yes, she‘ll be totally inadequate, but I think the Tory party may still pick her.
    Good point.

    Can't see her keeping a single Red Wall seat with whole 'I am Thatcher reborn' act and in order to compensate for being a Remainer she will overdo the whole Pure Brexit™ thing and so piss off a load of southern professional blue seats.

    Red Wall seats will also be kept by their local MPs.
    Good one
  • I've said it consistently, while people have been going crazy for one terrible candidate after another. Sunak is the only grown up in the room.

    But he wont win a GE. His wife's wealth is too big a factor in distancing him from the swing voters needed.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 11,022

    I've said it consistently, while people have been going crazy for one terrible candidate after another. Sunak is the only grown up in the room.

    But he wont win a GE. His wife's wealth is too big a factor in distancing him from the swing voters needed.
    None of them will win a general election.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 17,643
    edited July 2022
    If I was on the Tory Right, or perhaps a die-hard Boris loyalist, I too would plump for Truss.

    There’s insufficient evidence in the contest so far to suggest she’s a complete disaster, even if PB thinks otherwise.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,298

    I've said it consistently, while people have been going crazy for one terrible candidate after another. Sunak is the only grown up in the room.

    But he wont win a GE. His wife's wealth is too big a factor in distancing him from the swing voters needed.
    None of them will win a general election.
    Sunak may well stop meltdown.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758

    I've said it consistently, while people have been going crazy for one terrible candidate after another. Sunak is the only grown up in the room.

    But he wont win a GE. His wife's wealth is too big a factor in distancing him from the swing voters needed.
    None of them will win a general election.
    Truss is a banker for a Tory defeat but not quite so confident about the others also "events dear boy, events".
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,773
    edited July 2022
    kle4 said:

    What really boggles the mind about this Ashcroft members survey is that Tories watched the debate last night and apparently thought "Liz Truss is doing well".

    They shouldn't allow the vote to anyone who was a Tory party member when Boris was elected. Because they are all mental.

    There is something deeply wrong with our glorious unwritten constitution if it lets these fruitcakes and loonies choose who leads the country.
    I really don't see why. Parliament could pass a law at any time to provide more rules, we had a suggestion earlier to that very effect, about needing a GE if this happens. A written constitution wouldn't necessarily change the current situation anyway, it would depend what was put into it.

    It isn't an unwritten constitution that is causing a problem, it is a lack of desire to change the requirements. (which is not hard to do in this country).
    Yes. We elect MPs for 5 years. Whether they can form a government is entirely a matter for them. Our bit is to vote for a rep, and to hold the right to stand and organise politically ourselves and join a party.

    If a party chooses a leader by holding a drinking contest or by a game of musical chairs they are entitled to, and we can think about that when we vote. No-one can be PM unless they have the confidence of a majority of the reps we voted for. That's all we need for a democracy.

    If we think our reps are abusing their trust, the vote for a different lot next time. If we think they are all the same, then it's a wake up call to the public to be more involved. If we think the voters are all dim and easily led, then dissolve the electorate and find another.

    North Korea does it differently. I love our way of doing it. It's worth fighting for.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 43,344
    dixiedean said:

    I've said it consistently, while people have been going crazy for one terrible candidate after another. Sunak is the only grown up in the room.

    But he wont win a GE. His wife's wealth is too big a factor in distancing him from the swing voters needed.
    None of them will win a general election.
    Sunak may well stop meltdown.
    They need to get him in before Monday in that case.

  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 8,685

    If Truss is in the final two then the Tory members can choose (fantasy) ideological purity and precipitate electoral disaster or vote for the other candidate.

    Two mindsets that might lead to that.

    One is hyperbubble thought- the sort that thinks that the British public really prefers Kemi to Tom. It shouldn't happen, but it's a possibility in our fragmented society. After all, True Conservatives stuck by Boris (and thought he was popular) long after the rest of the country had given up on him.

    The other is the thing @HYUFD1 has alluded to here- after a decade, parties get a bit bored of being in government, and need to up the stakes. The end is in sight, so you might as well make a big difference / have some fun before the clock strikes midnight.

    Those two are a bit contradictory, but different members holding each of them simutaneously can lead to a pincer movement on a party's grip on reality. Naturally, neither of these is evidence of a party that ought to be in government much longer.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 49,018
    I've done so much trading that my best result is now Dominic Raab as caretaker.

    Up £2.2k if that happens.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,298
    153 for Lancashire to assert the rightful order.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,949

    If I was on the Tory Right, or perhaps a die-hard Boris loyalist, I too would plump for Truss.

    There’s insufficient evidence in the contest so far to suggest she’s a complete disaster, even if PB thinks otherwise.

    tbf to Liz Truss, in the Channel 4 debate she had at least thought about the affordability of tax cuts and government debt, unlike the others (except Rishi).
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 16,322

    I've said it consistently, while people have been going crazy for one terrible candidate after another. Sunak is the only grown up in the room.

    Is this at all related to the prospects for winning?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 11,022
    dixiedean said:

    I've said it consistently, while people have been going crazy for one terrible candidate after another. Sunak is the only grown up in the room.

    But he wont win a GE. His wife's wealth is too big a factor in distancing him from the swing voters needed.
    None of them will win a general election.
    Sunak may well stop meltdown.
    Exactly. With Sunak they might prevent Labour getting a majority. Any of the others are electoral suicide. That's why Johnson is after Sunak, not because any of this disloyalty bullshit, he doesn't care about that. He wants the Tories to crash and burn so he can sweep back in to rescue them.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,949

    I've done so much trading that my best result is now Dominic Raab as caretaker.

    Up £2.2k if that happens.

    You'll be annoyed if Boris falls under a bus tomorrow and they pick Theresa May.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,571

    I've said it consistently, while people have been going crazy for one terrible candidate after another. Sunak is the only grown up in the room.

    But he wont win a GE. His wife's wealth is too big a factor in distancing him from the swing voters needed.
    None of them will win a general election.
    Kemi could win a general election... but probably only from the launch pad of LOTO.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 11,022

    I've said it consistently, while people have been going crazy for one terrible candidate after another. Sunak is the only grown up in the room.

    Is this at all related to the prospects for winning?
    None of them will win. But Sunak is the only one who is a halfway credible PM who might prevent their total collapse.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,298
    Tory Party now dismally split.
    No leader is going to have it easy herding a swarm of wasps out the window with the Daily Telegraph.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 11,082

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If Biden chooses to run again he will be challenged in the Democratic primaries, as Carter was by Edward Kennedy in 1980. It is by no means certain Biden would prevail.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11018847/ANDREW-NEIL-Trump-set-run-U-S-riven-Civil-War.html

    I think he'll beat Newsom
    Maybe not Buttigieg
    Buttigieg has though a massive problem with the Black primary vote. Or did. Maybe next time it will be different?
    As Transportation Secretary he's well-placed to raise his positives with Black voters. And circumstances will be different than in 2020.

    However, if Biden does run, then do expect Black America to largely support him in 2024. Because in addition to established support, Black voters have a tendency to support Democratic incumbents. Something seen in plenty of races, including Jimmy Carter v Ted Kennedy in 1980 and also number of mayoral races in Seattle.

    Feeling being, if we helped put 'em in, keep 'em in.

    With incumbents being in good place to help this sentiment along IF they have the wit to do so. Which even the less stellar generally do, in their own self interest.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 8,685

    dixiedean said:

    I've said it consistently, while people have been going crazy for one terrible candidate after another. Sunak is the only grown up in the room.

    But he wont win a GE. His wife's wealth is too big a factor in distancing him from the swing voters needed.
    None of them will win a general election.
    Sunak may well stop meltdown.
    Exactly. With Sunak they might prevent Labour getting a majority. Any of the others are electoral suicide. That's why Johnson is after Sunak, not because any of this disloyalty bullshit, he doesn't care about that. He wants the Tories to crash and burn so he can sweep back in to rescue them.
    Even if he can't do that (and I'm sure that a shrewd Conservative leader would work hard to prevent it), he would love future people to be saying "life was better under Boris".
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 895

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    EPG said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    BREAKING **
    @KemiBadenoch has picked up real momentum in a new @ConHome survey of 850 Tory party members today, in the wake of the Channel 4 TV debate last night.
    The poll puts Ms Badenoch in the lead on 31 per cent, up from 19 per cent last Monday. 1/3 #ToryLeadershipContest


    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1548359360870436864

    Truss now second on 20% behind Badenoch, Mordaunt 3rd on 18%, Sunak fourth on 17% and Tugendhat 5th on 10%

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1548359364376834050?s=20&t=cX865SPxJphZPNq-E33kaQ
    Tory member preference, and general public preference, seem to have an orthogonal relationship.

    She worries me

    https://www.vice.com/en/article/jg8znx/uk-equalities-minister-kemi-badenoch-goes-on-anti-lgbtq-rant-in-leaked-audio

    If true (we don't get a transcript of the tape), really not what we need.
    1968 Rivers of Blood - Enoch Powell
    2022 Oceans of Woke - Kemi Bad'enoch

    Wonder what the (unquiet?) spirit of EP was saying last night? Or sputtering?
    He thought the children of Africans would be beginning a civil war right now, so probably expecting the Conservative Party to be a name for an inner-city black militia.
    He got it right: by 2020 the children of Africans are within a smidgen of gaining control of the country and waging (woke) war on the white urban middle classes.
    I will admit though: I don't think he saw it happening via the child of an African immigrant becoming leader of the Conservative Party and PM.
    Oh he did.

    Enoch was right, the darkies are about to have the whip hand over white people.

    "In this country in 15 or 20 years' time the black man will have the whip hand over the white man".
    Do you have your whip ready and waiting, @TSE?
    Jeez - it was hot enough just with the weather... etc etc.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,373
    The Tory membership is at the same stage now as the Labour membership was when they elected Corbyn, i.e. totally out of touch with political reality.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,571
    edited July 2022

    dixiedean said:

    I've said it consistently, while people have been going crazy for one terrible candidate after another. Sunak is the only grown up in the room.

    But he wont win a GE. His wife's wealth is too big a factor in distancing him from the swing voters needed.
    None of them will win a general election.
    Sunak may well stop meltdown.
    Exactly. With Sunak they might prevent Labour getting a majority. Any of the others are electoral suicide. That's why Johnson is after Sunak, not because any of this disloyalty bullshit, he doesn't care about that. He wants the Tories to crash and burn so he can sweep back in to rescue them.
    Long term it would probably be in the Conservatives interests for Labour to win an overall majority rather than Lab largest party and reliant on Lib-Dem votes.

    I think a majority Labour government would be less likely to implement PR compared to a Lib-Lab pact government.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,298

    dixiedean said:

    I've said it consistently, while people have been going crazy for one terrible candidate after another. Sunak is the only grown up in the room.

    But he wont win a GE. His wife's wealth is too big a factor in distancing him from the swing voters needed.
    None of them will win a general election.
    Sunak may well stop meltdown.
    Exactly. With Sunak they might prevent Labour getting a majority. Any of the others are electoral suicide. That's why Johnson is after Sunak, not because any of this disloyalty bullshit, he doesn't care about that. He wants the Tories to crash and burn so he can sweep back in to rescue them.
    More likely so he can earn a fortune pontificating to right wing media worldwide and in various speeches about how he would have done better.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 18,053
    If Rishi gets it, at the next GE he'll be playing Blair to Starmer's Major. Hopefully with a different outcome.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,272

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If Biden chooses to run again he will be challenged in the Democratic primaries, as Carter was by Edward Kennedy in 1980. It is by no means certain Biden would prevail.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11018847/ANDREW-NEIL-Trump-set-run-U-S-riven-Civil-War.html

    I think he'll beat Newsom
    Maybe not Buttigieg
    Buttigieg has though a massive problem with the Black primary vote. Or did. Maybe next time it will be different?
    I thought that problem was that Joe Biden had it all, followed by a few black and/or ideological alsorans.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,137
    edited July 2022

    The Tory membership is at the same stage now as the Labour membership was when they elected Corbyn, i.e. totally out of touch with political reality.

    If Sunak does well again in the next two debates, I think he has more than a sporting chance of beating Truss,Mordaunt or Badenoch with the membership.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 49,018

    I've done so much trading that my best result is now Dominic Raab as caretaker.

    Up £2.2k if that happens.

    You'll be annoyed if Boris falls under a bus tomorrow and they pick Theresa May.
    Up £2.3k on her too.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 49,018

    If I was on the Tory Right, or perhaps a die-hard Boris loyalist, I too would plump for Truss.

    There’s insufficient evidence in the contest so far to suggest she’s a complete disaster, even if PB thinks otherwise.

    tbf to Liz Truss, in the Channel 4 debate she had at least thought about the affordability of tax cuts and government debt, unlike the others (except Rishi).
    To be fair, she also gave a better answer on Covid debt than Rishi.

    I think the value is with Truss.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,355

    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    12m
    The latest
    @ConHome
    shows Mordaunt is very much beatable. Under scrutiny her notional advantage with members has melted away very quickly.

    https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico

    She was a member of the ERG.

    This article - about Brexit and its role in this campaign - will probably enrage quite a few of you. But worth considering nonetheless.

    https://twitter.com/chrisgreybrexit/status/1548227040481906688?s=21&t=pW9ktnJMALD7_O5rhwt4TA
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 17,643
    Rishi backer,
    "Kemi isn’t capable of being PM at this point and everyone knows that"
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 49,018
    Kemi dropped briefly below 10/1 there

    Don't know why
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423
    edited July 2022
    I knew Kemi Badenoch would do well in the betting stakes once again. 40/1 earlier today, now 14/1.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,649

    Rishi backer,
    "Kemi isn’t capable of being PM at this point and everyone knows that"

    That's what they're relying on now. I think they realise she'd win in a two way fight.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 49,018
    Andy_JS said:

    I knew Kemi Badenoch would do well in the betting stakes once again. 40/1 earlier today, now 14/1.

    She's probably a lay at that price to be honest.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 8,685
    MaxPB said:

    Rishi backer,
    "Kemi isn’t capable of being PM at this point and everyone knows that"

    That's what they're relying on now. I think they realise she'd win in a two way fight.
    They've got a point, though... haven't they?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,829

    I've said it consistently, while people have been going crazy for one terrible candidate after another. Sunak is the only grown up in the room.

    But he wont win a GE. His wife's wealth is too big a factor in distancing him from the swing voters needed.
    Tax behaviour, namely fairness thereof, is a much more significant issue. It's one thing to be rich but quite another to be seen not to pay one's fair share.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 49,018
    Pulpstar said:

    The broadside against Penny has been absolutely savage.
    If it ends up as Rishi vs Truss it'll be wall to wall shithousery on him from the mail and telegraph

    I spent 3 hours looking at her book today.

    There's nothing in it.

    It was that which crystallised the evidence from the last 24 hours to lay her.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,459
    edited July 2022
    Big test of the BBC 's and the Met Office's rival systems - BBC still predicting 40, and the Met Office 35.

    I predict the Met Office will get into the final two, with Sunak providing refreshments.
  • PensfoldPensfold Posts: 191

    If I was on the Tory Right, or perhaps a die-hard Boris loyalist, I too would plump for Truss.

    There’s insufficient evidence in the contest so far to suggest she’s a complete disaster, even if PB thinks otherwise.

    tbf to Liz Truss, in the Channel 4 debate she had at least thought about the affordability of tax cuts and government debt, unlike the others (except Rishi).
    To be fair, she also gave a better answer on Covid debt than Rishi.

    I think the value is with Truss.
    Debt is fungible. There is no such thing as COVID debt.
This discussion has been closed.