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The betting on next PM since BoJo bowed out – politicalbetting.com

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  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,041
    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🔴NEW: Jeremy Hunt says he wants to cut 'all taxes' if he replaces Boris Johnson

    Follow the latest update here ⬇️
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/11/boris-johnson-liz-truss-next-prime-minister-leadership-priti/ https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1546405691849596928/photo/1

    What happened? Just a few weeks ago he was a sane pair of hands?

    Desperation to be thought a contender, I suppose.
    I cannot believe how he is losing it with daft tax promises, even dafter Esther McVey deputy leader promise, and I stand to be corrected but has he not said he will bring back fox hunting

    It is really disappointing as I would like him to have a place in the next cabinet but leader, absolutely not
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    @Big_G_NorthWales what NHS services would you cut?

    The simplest way would be to close every fifth hospital and GP surgery, and not replace them.
    Would anyone notice if the GPs disappeared ?
    Considering that they deliver 90% of healthcare consultations in primary care, I suspect so.

    I suppose we could deregulate all medicines, let people use Google for self diagnosis and have a free market in healthcare. It would save on pharmacies too.
    There was a poster on here a few years ago who wanted to stop paying NI because he never uses the NHS. Hopefully he is still hale and hearty.

    Since we have no children can we get a rebate for the 9.4% of taxes spent on education*?

    (*For the avoidance of doubt, I'm joking.)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    edited July 2022
    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🔴NEW: Jeremy Hunt says he wants to cut 'all taxes' if he replaces Boris Johnson

    Follow the latest update here ⬇️
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/11/boris-johnson-liz-truss-next-prime-minister-leadership-priti/ https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1546405691849596928/photo/1

    What happened? Just a few weeks ago he was a sane pair of hands?

    Desperation to be thought a contender, I suppose.
    Suddenly realised what this reminds me of.

    Gibbon:

    "The Praetorians had violated the sanctity of the throne, by the atrocious murder of Pertinax; they dishonoured the majesty of it, by their subsequent conduct. The camp was without a leader, for even the Praefect Laetus, who had excited the tempest, prudently declined the public indignation. [...] the more prudent of the Praetorians, apprehensive that, in this private contract, they should not obtain a just price for so valuable a commodity, ran out upon the ramparts; and, with a loud voice, proclaimed that the Roman world was to be disposed of to the best bidder by public auction.(10)

    This infamous offer, the most insolent excess of military licence, diffused an universal grief, shame, and indignation throughout the city. It reached at length the ears of Didius Julianus, a wealthy senator, who, regardless of the public calamities, was indulging himself in the luxury of the table.(11) [...] Julian, eager for the prize, rose at once to the sum of six thousand two hundred and fifty drachms, or upwards of two hundred pounds sterling. The gates of the camp were instantly thrown open to the purchaser; he was declared emperor, and received an oath of allegiance from the soldiers, who retained humanity enough to stipulate that he should pardon and forget the competition of Sulpicianus.

    [...] After Julian had filled the senate-house with armed soldiers, he expatiated on the freedom of his election, his own eminent virtues, and his full assurance of the affections of the senate. The obsequious assembly congratulated their own and the public felicity; engaged their allegiance, and conferred on him all the several branches of the Imperial power."

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    The Daily Maily Lurpak Spreadable Obsession continues.

    https://tinyurl.com/4decxxpd

    I love Lurpak. I have frozen a couple.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    @Big_G_NorthWales what NHS services would you cut?

    The simplest way would be to close every fifth hospital and GP surgery, and not replace them.
    Following the GBR scheme we could do it by public vote - the hospital / surgery with least votes is eliminated. After all this is a "democracy"
    Or The National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence could cut the QALY utility score from £20/30k to £2/3k.
    We know what will happen.

    The tax-slashing winner will get in - do one of the tax cuts probably income tax by adding to the debt pile and then bluster about the others until everyone has forgotten.

    Truss's idea about turning covid debt into some kind of extremely long war bond might be worth looking into, but it is a very different world to the 1940s.
    How would that be different from any other very long term government bond ?
    Unless you're going to make its purchase mandatory...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    The Daily Maily Lurpak Spreadable Obsession continues.

    https://tinyurl.com/4decxxpd

    What? I bought butter yesterday for £1.60. Lurpak at £10?????
    The price of Lurpak Spreadable has displaced Meghan as the new Daily Mail obsession.

    There is normally an article every day on it the moment.
    What’s the underlying issue, they had a factory shut down with Covid, or a supply chain problem with one of the ingredients?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    @Big_G_NorthWales what NHS services would you cut?

    The simplest way would be to close every fifth hospital and GP surgery, and not replace them.
    Ditto schools ?

    And remove the state pension from every fifth pensioner.
    Yes, it is simple really. Like the decimation of a Roman Legion, repeated to get a double effect.
    On a point of PB pedantry, repeated decimation would only get you down to 81% ...
    If you were selective about it, you could reduce costs rather more than that.
    Just thinking that making people cabinet ministers for 2 months or 2 days isn't helping with public spending, given the payoffs they get, is it?
    I note Bone has yet to pledge his Boris bung to charity, as did the Education Minister for a day (whose name I've already forgotten).
    What the hell are they doing spending the money even for that?! If they don't think it legitimate to claim then they shouldn't bloody claim it. Doesn't matter if they spend it on the dogs at Wallyford or send it to Oxfam. It's still spending it.
    I'm not arguing with you. :smile:
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,719

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🔴NEW: Jeremy Hunt says he wants to cut 'all taxes' if he replaces Boris Johnson

    Follow the latest update here ⬇️
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/11/boris-johnson-liz-truss-next-prime-minister-leadership-priti/ https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1546405691849596928/photo/1

    What happened? Just a few weeks ago he was a sane pair of hands?

    Desperation to be thought a contender, I suppose.
    I cannot believe how he is losing it with daft tax promises, even dafter Esther McVey deputy leader promise, and I stand to be corrected but has he not said he will bring back fox hunting

    It is really disappointing as I would like him to have a place in the next cabinet but leader, absolutely not
    He was poor on Sophie's sunday show I thought unfortunately. Rather robotic and nervous. I though Javid came across better.

    Only one performance so early days. But I suspect he knows he is running to be considered if there is a cabinet of all the talents.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,041
    edited July 2022
    As this absurd and ill judged race to promise widescale tax cuts develops I really hope Sunak v Mordaunt become the final two
  • HYUFD said:
    Its a good one.

    I think Truss is the best candidate, even though ideally I want Sunak to win for entirely selfish reasons. Hopefully we get a Sunak v Truss final two, in which case either I'll get a good payoff, or the best candidate becomes PM. 👍
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    edited July 2022

    The Daily Maily Lurpak Spreadable Obsession continues.

    https://tinyurl.com/4decxxpd

    A story which illustrates so many lies and misunderstandings about what is happening out there:
    1kg of butter? Who in their right mind buys that for domestic use? So the basic proposition is silly. Whats more, other brands are available who do basically the same product for less cost per kilo.

    But - and its a big but - read and understand the comments and analysis about the dairy industry. There have been some *whopping* price rises. So the industry can afford to pay people more. And yet cannot find staff. Because quite simply British workers do not want to work in agriculture / food. At any price. We continue to have a staff shortage. And the "point-based migration" system fails to do its job and bring people in.
    Regarding milk, it's worth saying that our corner shop did 2x2litres for £2 for years (going back as far as I can remember so probably since 2010).

    That went to £1.20 each back in January (discount removed), £1.40 in March and it's now £1.60 per 2 litres.

    So that's a 60% increase in fairly short order because as the owner states everyone needs to make money...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    edited July 2022
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    @Big_G_NorthWales what NHS services would you cut?

    The simplest way would be to close every fifth hospital and GP surgery, and not replace them.
    Would anyone notice if the GPs disappeared ?
    Considering that they deliver 90% of healthcare consultations in primary care, I suspect so.

    I suppose we could deregulate all medicines, let people use Google for self diagnosis and have a free market in healthcare. It would save on pharmacies too.
    I think between them pharmacies and hospitals could pick up the slack tbh. If you're binning off GPs then you can expand your budget between those.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,962
    Nigelb said:

    (FPT) Why do so many of Badenoch's endorsers call her 'brave' or courageous' ?
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/full-list-tory-endorsements-for-next-leader

    Good point.
    Are they saying that it’s difficult for a young black woman to prosper in the PCP, or that to speak out in the war on woke is brave in the country of the Mail, Express, Sun, Telegraph, Spectator, GB News and sundry obsessed Leon types?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    I see Ms Truss is another one running for PM rather than the actual position of Leader of the Conservative Party. An interesting choice of focus which say to me that this is all about getting through the door of No.10 rather than leading a major political party.

    In short, personal ambition and Primus inter pares can be chucked in the bin. It is also what makes such people unfit for the job and that is before we even begin to examine their crazy proposals.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,526
    Scott_xP said:

    🔴NEW: Jeremy Hunt says he wants to cut 'all taxes' if he replaces Boris Johnson

    Follow the latest update here ⬇️
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/11/boris-johnson-liz-truss-next-prime-minister-leadership-priti/ https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1546405691849596928/photo/1

    Mmm. I want to abolish world poverty. Without setting a date or a route to doing it, my pledge is sadly of limited value.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901
    eek said:

    The Daily Maily Lurpak Spreadable Obsession continues.

    https://tinyurl.com/4decxxpd

    A story which illustrates so many lies and misunderstandings about what is happening out there:
    1kg of butter? Who in their right mind buys that for domestic use? So the basic proposition is silly. Whats more, other brands are available who do basically the same product for less cost per kilo.

    But - and its a big but - read and understand the comments and analysis about the dairy industry. There have been some *whopping* price rises. So the industry can afford to pay people more. And yet cannot find staff. Because quite simply British workers do not want to work in agriculture / food. At any price. We continue to have a staff shortage. And the "point-based migration" system fails to do its job and bring people in.
    Regarding milk, it's worth saying that our corner shop did 2x2litres for £2 for years (going back as far as I can remember so probably since 2010).

    That went to £1.20 each back in January (discount removed), £1.40 in March and it's now £1.60 per 2 litres.

    So that's a 60% increase in fairly short order because as the owner states everyone needs to make money...
    Yes. The imposed loss-leading position driven by "take it or fuck off" supermarket buying has collapsed. There are actual profit margins now being generated which we need if we want a dairy industry.

    But again, the elephant in the room is a lack of staff. In a lot of rural areas there is no real unemployment amongst viable staff...
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    @Big_G_NorthWales what NHS services would you cut?

    The simplest way would be to close every fifth hospital and GP surgery, and not replace them.
    Would anyone notice if the GPs disappeared ?
    Considering that they deliver 90% of healthcare consultations in primary care, I suspect so.

    I suppose we could deregulate all medicines, let people use Google for self diagnosis and have a free market in healthcare. It would save on pharmacies too.
    I think between them pharmacies and hospitals could pick up the slack tbh.
    Queue times at the local A&E can now be 12 hours +...

    Pharmacies can pick up some of the slack, hospitals really can't....
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361
    Scott_xP said:

    🔴NEW: Jeremy Hunt says he wants to cut 'all taxes' if he replaces Boris Johnson

    Follow the latest update here ⬇️
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/11/boris-johnson-liz-truss-next-prime-minister-leadership-priti/ https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1546405691849596928/photo/1

    Is this leadership contest going to be all about tax cuts?

    If it is, then I'd suggest that Sunak - as the source of people's frustrations with rising taxes - is doomed, and Zahawi has done well to come up with an eye-catching pledge to cut spending by 20%

    It's a tabloid staple that vast sums of public spending are wasted in simple and obvious ways. Anyone criticising the plan has to justify hundreds of billions of pounds of government expenditure as 100% necessary. I could see this being a similar reality/make believe dividing line as Johnson's no more extensions.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🔴NEW: Jeremy Hunt says he wants to cut 'all taxes' if he replaces Boris Johnson

    Follow the latest update here ⬇️
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/11/boris-johnson-liz-truss-next-prime-minister-leadership-priti/ https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1546405691849596928/photo/1

    What happened? Just a few weeks ago he was a sane pair of hands?

    Desperation to be thought a contender, I suppose.
    The majority of candidates seem to realise they will get nowhere without wrapping themselves in the flag, and promising uncosted tax cuts and an anti-woke, hanging and flogging agenda.

    It has been a handy reminder why I should never vote for any of the duplicitous *******!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,898

    HYUFD said:
    Another one - she has been releasing them for the last year at least
    tbf it is not a bad video. Spoiler: she wants members to vote for Liz Truss.

    Her website lizforleader.co.uk was registered in June but more interestingly she is using the Cloudflare CDN, presumably in case other candidates try to ddos her.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    @Big_G_NorthWales what NHS services would you cut?

    The simplest way would be to close every fifth hospital and GP surgery, and not replace them.
    Would anyone notice if the GPs disappeared ?
    Considering that they deliver 90% of healthcare consultations in primary care, I suspect so.

    I suppose we could deregulate all medicines, let people use Google for self diagnosis and have a free market in healthcare. It would save on pharmacies too.
    I think between them pharmacies and hospitals could pick up the slack tbh.
    Queue times at the local A&E can now be 12 hours +...

    Pharmacies can pick up some of the slack, hospitals really can't....
    Especially if you close 20%.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🔴NEW: Jeremy Hunt says he wants to cut 'all taxes' if he replaces Boris Johnson

    Follow the latest update here ⬇️
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/11/boris-johnson-liz-truss-next-prime-minister-leadership-priti/ https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1546405691849596928/photo/1

    What happened? Just a few weeks ago he was a sane pair of hands?

    Desperation to be thought a contender, I suppose.
    There’s possibly a horrible downside for the Tories ramming home to the general public they are hell bent on massive tax cuts for the rich and deep cuts and austerity to public services?

    That is not what the Tory Party candidates are saying at all, of course! But how are the general public putting two and two together? When governments talk directly to all voters about these things it’s a carefully nuanced message.

    Unless you can have months of ramming home tax cutting message to your membership without it impacting at all how the general public now view you. A worsening poll position may be driven by this.
  • mwjfrome17mwjfrome17 Posts: 158
    Liz Truss' video slightly less vomit inducing than Penny's
  • The Daily Maily Lurpak Spreadable Obsession continues.

    https://tinyurl.com/4decxxpd

    A story which illustrates so many lies and misunderstandings about what is happening out there:
    1kg of butter? Who in their right mind buys that for domestic use? So the basic proposition is silly. Whats more, other brands are available who do basically the same product for less cost per kilo.

    But - and its a big but - read and understand the comments and analysis about the dairy industry. There have been some *whopping* price rises. So the industry can afford to pay people more. And yet cannot find staff. Because quite simply British workers do not want to work in agriculture / food. At any price. We continue to have a staff shortage. And the "point-based migration" system fails to do its job and bring people in.
    You mean its not bringing in people who are being offered competitive salaries?

    Or its not bringing in people at basically minimum wage?

    The migration system is designed, rightly, now to bring people in if their starting salary is about £30k+ . . . we shouldn't be looking to bring people in who are earning less than that, because if they're on less than that they're a net drain not a positive.

    So which jobs aren't being filled for a long time that are meeting that salary? Or do you mean that offering 10% over National Minimum Wage isn't enough?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901

    As this absurd and ill judged race to promise widescale tax cuts develops I really hope Sunak v Mordaunt become the final two

    Yep. Though I can see the pitch that Tugenhat is making I would be astonished if he finds a way through. They really do need to get on with this - too many idiot candidates making stupid promises which are either maliciously vindictive or economically insane. Taking a brand that is absolutely trashed and trashing it some more - with that crook Johnson and his government of never-been's still in office.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    edited July 2022

    I see Ms Truss is another one running for PM rather than the actual position of Leader of the Conservative Party. An interesting choice of focus which say to me that this is all about getting through the door of No.10 rather than leading a major political party.

    In short, personal ambition and Primus inter pares can be chucked in the bin. It is also what makes such people unfit for the job and that is before we even begin to examine their crazy proposals.

    Revealing, the way the Tory Party thinks it owns the UK. Rather like Labour did in Scotland.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,041
    Just completed a ConHome survey with 54 combinations of two candidates to choose

  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    eek said:

    The Daily Maily Lurpak Spreadable Obsession continues.

    https://tinyurl.com/4decxxpd

    A story which illustrates so many lies and misunderstandings about what is happening out there:
    1kg of butter? Who in their right mind buys that for domestic use? So the basic proposition is silly. Whats more, other brands are available who do basically the same product for less cost per kilo.

    But - and its a big but - read and understand the comments and analysis about the dairy industry. There have been some *whopping* price rises. So the industry can afford to pay people more. And yet cannot find staff. Because quite simply British workers do not want to work in agriculture / food. At any price. We continue to have a staff shortage. And the "point-based migration" system fails to do its job and bring people in.
    Regarding milk, it's worth saying that our corner shop did 2x2litres for £2 for years (going back as far as I can remember so probably since 2010).

    That went to £1.20 each back in January (discount removed), £1.40 in March and it's now £1.60 per 2 litres.

    So that's a 60% increase in fairly short order because as the owner states everyone needs to make money...
    Yes. The imposed loss-leading position driven by "take it or fuck off" supermarket buying has collapsed. There are actual profit margins now being generated which we need if we want a dairy industry.

    But again, the elephant in the room is a lack of staff. In a lot of rural areas there is no real unemployment amongst viable staff...
    Yep - 20 years of shite profits meant that the sons and daughters of farmers quit farming and did something else.

    Most of Mrs Eek's colleagues are sons and daughters of farmers who decided that a low paid (well pay is 20%+ less in real terms than in 2010) working for the national park was more profitable than working at the farm.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,904

    Scott_xP said:

    "Tory Chancellor threatens £30bn less for the NHS and £9bn less for Defence" - is this remotely serious? https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1546376012572811264

    Well you were complaining last thread about none of them being serious or attempting to balance the books.
    The tweet is:-
    Nadh Zahawi tells Sky News he plans to impose 20% cuts on every government department in order to pay for his planned tax cuts.

    And that 20 per cent figure tells us that this is either not serious or is damn stupid. It is plucked out of thin air, it is too large for simple efficiency savings (which, by the way, everyone has tried) but there is no accompanying policy that would naturally slice a fifth off anyone's spending; it is to be uniform across Whitehall, again with no regard to policy.
    I he aiming to pick up the title of Mad Nad?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    13-second long pitch. Shapps using brevity to stand out from rivals. https://twitter.com/grantshapps/status/1546406437567463424
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    HYUFD said:
    Another one - she has been releasing them for the last year at least
    tbf it is not a bad video. Spoiler: she wants members to vote for Liz Truss.

    Her website lizforleader.co.uk was registered in June but more interestingly she is using the Cloudflare CDN, presumably in case other candidates try to ddos her.
    That’s a good sign of her having spent money on setting up the site professionally, as opposed to having a friend throw up a one-page Wordpress template in half an hour.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Zahawi hasn't pledged to cut spending by 20%. Well except for civil servants. He's going to cut those by 20%. Not the whole of spending.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Sandpit said:

    The Daily Maily Lurpak Spreadable Obsession continues.

    https://tinyurl.com/4decxxpd

    What? I bought butter yesterday for £1.60. Lurpak at £10?????
    The price of Lurpak Spreadable has displaced Meghan as the new Daily Mail obsession.

    There is normally an article every day on it the moment.
    What’s the underlying issue, they had a factory shut down with Covid, or a supply chain problem with one of the ingredients?
    The underlying issue is that the Daily Mail is bonkers.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    HYUFD said:
    Its a good one.

    I think Truss is the best candidate, even though ideally I want Sunak to win for entirely selfish reasons. Hopefully we get a Sunak v Truss final two, in which case either I'll get a good payoff, or the best candidate becomes PM. 👍
    If it was Sunak v Truss I would vote for Sunak with reservations. Though at least Truss is more conservative than she was

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901

    The Daily Maily Lurpak Spreadable Obsession continues.

    https://tinyurl.com/4decxxpd

    A story which illustrates so many lies and misunderstandings about what is happening out there:
    1kg of butter? Who in their right mind buys that for domestic use? So the basic proposition is silly. Whats more, other brands are available who do basically the same product for less cost per kilo.

    But - and its a big but - read and understand the comments and analysis about the dairy industry. There have been some *whopping* price rises. So the industry can afford to pay people more. And yet cannot find staff. Because quite simply British workers do not want to work in agriculture / food. At any price. We continue to have a staff shortage. And the "point-based migration" system fails to do its job and bring people in.
    You mean its not bringing in people who are being offered competitive salaries?

    Or its not bringing in people at basically minimum wage?

    The migration system is designed, rightly, now to bring people in if their starting salary is about £30k+ . . . we shouldn't be looking to bring people in who are earning less than that, because if they're on less than that they're a net drain not a positive.

    So which jobs aren't being filled for a long time that are meeting that salary? Or do you mean that offering 10% over National Minimum Wage isn't enough?
    I mean that in the real world there is no solution other than imported labour. There is no labour pool available in many rural areas to do the work. So you're looking at farmers having to offer incentives to get people to relocate from Widnes to Wisbech to work in their dairy. Which they can't and the people won't. And even if they did the price of milk would then be so crazy that we would switch to cheaper imports.

    What you believe is great theory. Meanwhile in the real world...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Scott_xP said:

    🔴NEW: Jeremy Hunt says he wants to cut 'all taxes' if he replaces Boris Johnson

    Follow the latest update here ⬇️
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/11/boris-johnson-liz-truss-next-prime-minister-leadership-priti/ https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1546405691849596928/photo/1

    Mmm. I want to abolish world poverty. Without setting a date or a route to doing it, my pledge is sadly of limited value.
    Surely you could at least pledge to reduce all world poverty by 20% in the course of this parliament, Nick ?
    I think you'd make a fine new leader for the Conservatives.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    As this absurd and ill judged race to promise widescale tax cuts develops I really hope Sunak v Mordaunt become the final two

    In terms of MP endorsements as stands it would be
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    HYUFD said:
    Another one - she has been releasing them for the last year at least
    tbf it is not a bad video. Spoiler: she wants members to vote for Liz Truss.

    Her website lizforleader.co.uk was registered in June but more interestingly she is using the Cloudflare CDN, presumably in case other candidates try to ddos her.
    I found it very cheesy.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Zahawi hasn't pledged to cut spending by 20%. Well except for civil servants. He's going to cut those by 20%. Not the whole of spending.

    Considering the only source for this claim was Adam Bienkov, who is a notorious liar that Scott etc regularly quote who will put the most twist on whatever anyone in the government says, it was fairly obvious immediately that it wasn't true.

    If he'd genuinely said it, there'd be a real source saying so. Not a discredited liar like Bienkov as the only one saying he'd said it, then a bunch of idiots on Twitter extrapolating from what a liar said.
  • mwjfrome17mwjfrome17 Posts: 158
    But the main focus of them all is how much more public debt shall we accrue in the next two years to try and retain power in 2024 - none of them seem to have any actual ideas about how we get out of this mess.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    One area for cost saving - councils. Everyone needs a council, but noone needs more than that. Some upfront cost, but future savings as duplication is eliminated. Unitary system for all.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    Pulpstar said:

    Zahawi hasn't pledged to cut spending by 20%. Well except for civil servants. He's going to cut those by 20%. Not the whole of spending.

    So he is going to keep spending the same but cut the people who manage the spending by 20% - which just means fewer checks so more money being spent inefficiently.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🔴NEW: Jeremy Hunt says he wants to cut 'all taxes' if he replaces Boris Johnson

    Follow the latest update here ⬇️
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/11/boris-johnson-liz-truss-next-prime-minister-leadership-priti/ https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1546405691849596928/photo/1

    What happened? Just a few weeks ago he was a sane pair of hands?

    Desperation to be thought a contender, I suppose.
    The majority of candidates seem to realise they will get nowhere without wrapping themselves in the flag, and promising uncosted tax cuts and an anti-woke, hanging and flogging agenda.

    It has been a handy reminder why I should never vote for any of the duplicitous *******!
    It’s a handy reminder how there may have been swings and roundabouts in Tory membership - many thousands walking away when likes of Philip Hammond and many others expulsion to the wilderness - influx of blukip fatberg that had been building up out there over 20yrs. And the stench from the blukip fatberg - Yuk!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,898
    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    @Big_G_NorthWales what NHS services would you cut?

    The simplest way would be to close every fifth hospital and GP surgery, and not replace them.
    Following the GBR scheme we could do it by public vote - the hospital / surgery with least votes is eliminated. After all this is a "democracy"
    Or The National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence could cut the QALY utility score from £20/30k to £2/3k.
    We know what will happen.

    The tax-slashing winner will get in - do one of the tax cuts probably income tax by adding to the debt pile and then bluster about the others until everyone has forgotten.

    Truss's idea about turning covid debt into some kind of extremely long war bond might be worth looking into, but it is a very different world to the 1940s.
    It was something worth doing in 2020 or even early 2021. The cost of doing it now is way, way more than it was then.

    In 2020 / 2021 inflation was a pipe dream - now it's reality and there is no way my pension fund is going to accept a 3-5% return when inflation is 10%...
    Your pension fund might accept below-inflation returns if the alternative is a crashing stock market. Mine is down about three years' worth last time I looked.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Is it just the 358 MPs holding the whip that get the vote?

    Or will the 3 MPs currently without the whip have it temporarily restored?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,913
    HYUFD said:
    A Hell of a lot better than that pretentious tripe from Penny Mordaunt. It was mercifully shorter to start with and the VO was at least her own. We were also spared the portentious music track that made it sound like a spoof.

    But having said all that it's not a campaign video that's going to win this election and her cloying loyalty to Johnson will surely disqualify even if her if her lack of ability manages to escape attention.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,041

    But the main focus of them all is how much more public debt shall we accrue in the next two years to try and retain power in 2024 - none of them seem to have any actual ideas about how we get out of this mess.

    Neither do labour though
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    Is it just the 358 MPs holding the whip that get the vote?

    Or will the 3 MPs currently without the whip have it temporarily restored?

    Those 3 don't get a say until the Member's vote...
  • The Daily Maily Lurpak Spreadable Obsession continues.

    https://tinyurl.com/4decxxpd

    A story which illustrates so many lies and misunderstandings about what is happening out there:
    1kg of butter? Who in their right mind buys that for domestic use? So the basic proposition is silly. Whats more, other brands are available who do basically the same product for less cost per kilo.

    But - and its a big but - read and understand the comments and analysis about the dairy industry. There have been some *whopping* price rises. So the industry can afford to pay people more. And yet cannot find staff. Because quite simply British workers do not want to work in agriculture / food. At any price. We continue to have a staff shortage. And the "point-based migration" system fails to do its job and bring people in.
    You mean its not bringing in people who are being offered competitive salaries?

    Or its not bringing in people at basically minimum wage?

    The migration system is designed, rightly, now to bring people in if their starting salary is about £30k+ . . . we shouldn't be looking to bring people in who are earning less than that, because if they're on less than that they're a net drain not a positive.

    So which jobs aren't being filled for a long time that are meeting that salary? Or do you mean that offering 10% over National Minimum Wage isn't enough?
    I mean that in the real world there is no solution other than imported labour. There is no labour pool available in many rural areas to do the work. So you're looking at farmers having to offer incentives to get people to relocate from Widnes to Wisbech to work in their dairy. Which they can't and the people won't. And even if they did the price of milk would then be so crazy that we would switch to cheaper imports.

    What you believe is great theory. Meanwhile in the real world...
    There are people who live in Wisbech already. Why aren't they doing the work?

    If you pay a competitive enough salary, then people will move to take the job. Or you can invest in somewhere there are people.

    "Bringing in people" is just getting people to move.

    There is no reason those people need to move from another country, rather than somewhere in this one, other than that National Minimum Wage will attract people to move from Eastern Europe to Wisbech but won't get people to move from Widnes to Wisbech. A decent salary and good terms and conditions on the other hand will do.

    If anyone is struggling to hire because they aren't paying a good salary, that's their problem, not ours. They either need to pay a good salary, or invest in automation, or their business isn't viable.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901
    Pulpstar said:

    One area for cost saving - councils. Everyone needs a council, but noone needs more than that. Some upfront cost, but future savings as duplication is eliminated. Unitary system for all.

    I'm not sure there is much left to save with many councils. Other than having them go bust and writing off all their debts.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220
    Pulpstar said:

    Zahawi hasn't pledged to cut spending by 20%. Well except for civil servants. He's going to cut those by 20%. Not the whole of spending.

    That's not going to pay for much in terms of tax cuts, is it?

    But yes, that's the sleight of hand here. Say that he found a way of cutting one (smallish and unusual) bit of spending by 20% and leave the impression that he can cut everything by 20% without reducing service quality.

    In "How to lie with statistics", Darrell Huff called it a semi-attached figure.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,064
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:
    Another one - she has been releasing them for the last year at least
    tbf it is not a bad video. Spoiler: she wants members to vote for Liz Truss.

    Her website lizforleader.co.uk was registered in June but more interestingly she is using the Cloudflare CDN, presumably in case other candidates try to ddos her.
    I found it very cheesy.
    Given the parallel discussion about dairy pricing, I'm not certain we can afford cheesy...
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    HYUFD said:
    Another one - she has been releasing them for the last year at least
    I was disappointed not to see her riding along on top of a battle tank or waving to the crowd below from CCHQ... oh wait, that was Maggie. How did I make that mistake?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,962
    Scott_xP said:

    13-second long pitch. Shapps using brevity to stand out from rivals. https://twitter.com/grantshapps/status/1546406437567463424

    ‘I can help you win your seat’

    No messin’, straight for the selectorate’s jugular.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784
    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    @Big_G_NorthWales what NHS services would you cut?

    The simplest way would be to close every fifth hospital and GP surgery, and not replace them.
    Would anyone notice if the GPs disappeared ?
    I thought they already had!
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,497
    IshmaelZ said:

    Eabhal said:

    Appropriate to store beer in work fridge ready for evening drinks in the park?

    Not explicitly ruled out anywhere...

    By the laws of nature, everything which is not forbidden is compulsory

    - Someone
    This, I believe, is an ancient trope on the nature of Roman Catholicism; 'Everything is either compulsory or forbidden'.

  • Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:
    Another one - she has been releasing them for the last year at least
    tbf it is not a bad video. Spoiler: she wants members to vote for Liz Truss.

    Her website lizforleader.co.uk was registered in June but more interestingly she is using the Cloudflare CDN, presumably in case other candidates try to ddos her.
    I found it very cheesy.
    Two thirds a disgrace?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,799
    Carnyx said:

    I see Ms Truss is another one running for PM rather than the actual position of Leader of the Conservative Party. An interesting choice of focus which say to me that this is all about getting through the door of No.10 rather than leading a major political party.

    In short, personal ambition and Primus inter pares can be chucked in the bin. It is also what makes such people unfit for the job and that is before we even begin to examine their crazy proposals.

    Revealing, the way the Tory Party thinks it owns the UK. Rather like Labour did in Scotland.
    But the winner WILL be PM of the UK. I think it’s right that this is emphasised - the selectorate have a wider responsibility than just selecting whoever best reflects their own values. Others have rightly objected that some are not taking this fundamental aspect of the contest seriously enough.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    Pulpstar said:

    One area for cost saving - councils. Everyone needs a council, but noone needs more than that. Some upfront cost, but future savings as duplication is eliminated. Unitary system for all.

    What duplication occurs in a 2 tier council. When you have 2 tiers both tiers have different responsibilities.

    And you really want planning done on a local level - Bishop Auckland's town centre has been destroyed by the decision of the county council to allow a out of town retail park to be built. That application had been on a back burner for years because the previous district council knew what the impact would be and had made it clear that they wouldn't allow it. Then councillors from 60 miles away got a vote and allowed it to be passed.

    Oh and 60 miles is minor - the new North Yorkshire unitary council will take over 3 hours to get from one end to the other (120 miles).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Pulpstar said:

    Zahawi hasn't pledged to cut spending by 20%. Well except for civil servants. He's going to cut those by 20%. Not the whole of spending.

    That's not going to pay for much in terms of tax cuts, is it?

    But yes, that's the sleight of hand here. Say that he found a way of cutting one (smallish and unusual) bit of spending by 20% and leave the impression that he can cut everything by 20% without reducing service quality.

    In "How to lie with statistics", Darrell Huff called it a semi-attached figure.
    Is there a link to the full interview to put this into context ?

    https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1546376913786118146
    #KayBurley - So it's a 20% cut for every department?

    Nadhim Zahawi - Yes... that will give me the headroom for tax cuts...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    Pulpstar said:

    One area for cost saving - councils. Everyone needs a council, but noone needs more than that. Some upfront cost, but future savings as duplication is eliminated. Unitary system for all.

    I'm not sure there is much left to save with many councils. Other than having them go bust and writing off all their debts.
    Or council tax going through the roof
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,001
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    @Big_G_NorthWales what NHS services would you cut?

    The simplest way would be to close every fifth hospital and GP surgery, and not replace them.
    Would anyone notice if the GPs disappeared ?
    Considering that they deliver 90% of healthcare consultations in primary care, I suspect so.

    I suppose we could deregulate all medicines, let people use Google for self diagnosis and have a free market in healthcare. It would save on pharmacies too.
    And pension payments, in time.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    Scott_xP said:

    13-second long pitch. Shapps using brevity to stand out from rivals. https://twitter.com/grantshapps/status/1546406437567463424

    ‘I can help you win your seat’

    No messin’, straight for the selectorate’s jugular.
    How - given that he is responsible for cutting one of the biggest parts of levelling up. For every NIMBY who didn't want HS2E there are 5+ (possibly 50+) people who did.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,790
    So are we saying that Hunt is Gratian, having started promisingly but succumbed to the vice of his era?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361

    The Daily Maily Lurpak Spreadable Obsession continues.

    https://tinyurl.com/4decxxpd

    A story which illustrates so many lies and misunderstandings about what is happening out there:
    1kg of butter? Who in their right mind buys that for domestic use? So the basic proposition is silly. Whats more, other brands are available who do basically the same product for less cost per kilo.

    But - and its a big but - read and understand the comments and analysis about the dairy industry. There have been some *whopping* price rises. So the industry can afford to pay people more. And yet cannot find staff. Because quite simply British workers do not want to work in agriculture / food. At any price. We continue to have a staff shortage. And the "point-based migration" system fails to do its job and bring people in.
    You mean its not bringing in people who are being offered competitive salaries?

    Or its not bringing in people at basically minimum wage?

    The migration system is designed, rightly, now to bring people in if their starting salary is about £30k+ . . . we shouldn't be looking to bring people in who are earning less than that, because if they're on less than that they're a net drain not a positive.

    So which jobs aren't being filled for a long time that are meeting that salary? Or do you mean that offering 10% over National Minimum Wage isn't enough?
    I mean that in the real world there is no solution other than imported labour. There is no labour pool available in many rural areas to do the work. So you're looking at farmers having to offer incentives to get people to relocate from Widnes to Wisbech to work in their dairy. Which they can't and the people won't. And even if they did the price of milk would then be so crazy that we would switch to cheaper imports.

    What you believe is great theory. Meanwhile in the real world...
    There are people who live in Wisbech already. Why aren't they doing the work?

    If you pay a competitive enough salary, then people will move to take the job. Or you can invest in somewhere there are people.

    "Bringing in people" is just getting people to move.

    There is no reason those people need to move from another country, rather than somewhere in this one, other than that National Minimum Wage will attract people to move from Eastern Europe to Wisbech but won't get people to move from Widnes to Wisbech. A decent salary and good terms and conditions on the other hand will do.

    If anyone is struggling to hire because they aren't paying a good salary, that's their problem, not ours. They either need to pay a good salary, or invest in automation, or their business isn't viable.
    People won't move from Widnes to Wisbech when there's nowhere to live in Wisbech, apart from a bed in a dorm room. So many of our economic and social issues come back to the housing crisis.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    https://twitter.com/lmharpin/status/1546394427375190016

    "Starmer to confirm pledge to end charitable status of private schools like Eton in speech today in Gateshead. He will say:”When I say we are going to pay for kids to catch up at school, I also say it’ll be funded by removing private schools’ charitable status."

    Taxing aspiration is never a good look.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883
    I've just seen Jenrick on skynews, I feel sick...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191

    Pulpstar said:

    One area for cost saving - councils. Everyone needs a council, but noone needs more than that. Some upfront cost, but future savings as duplication is eliminated. Unitary system for all.

    I'm not sure there is much left to save with many councils. Other than having them go bust and writing off all their debts.
    Two websites needed to be hosted.
    Two offices,
    two sets of councillor expenses.

    https://www.nottinghamshire.gov.uk/
    https://www.bassetlaw.gov.uk/

    Save the £000s and the millions look after themselves
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,971
    edited July 2022
    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One area for cost saving - councils. Everyone needs a council, but noone needs more than that. Some upfront cost, but future savings as duplication is eliminated. Unitary system for all.

    What duplication occurs in a 2 tier council. When you have 2 tiers both tiers have different responsibilities.

    And you really want planning done on a local level - Bishop Auckland's town centre has been destroyed by the decision of the county council to allow a out of town retail park to be built. That application had been on a back burner for years because the previous district council knew what the impact would be and had made it clear that they wouldn't allow it. Then councillors from 60 miles away got a vote and allowed it to be passed.

    Oh and 60 miles is minor - the new North Yorkshire unitary council will take over 3 hours to get from one end to the other (120 miles).
    I do find it hilarious when people moan about out of town retail parks "destroying" town centres.

    Typically the same people who have made it all but impossible to drive into and park in town.

    So no shit Sherlock that people end up preferring to shop in out of town retail parks, which they can easily drive to and park at, rather than town centres, which they can't.

    Stop trying to pedestrianise town centres, build decent amounts of parking, and maybe town centres would be revitalised again.

    Consumer should be king, if everyone is choosing to go to the out of town retail park, then it was completely right that it should be allowed to be built, because that's what people wanted. If people didn't want it, they wouldn't go there. "Don't build this, because it will be popular" is the worst possible argument to deny planning consent and is precisely why the very nature of requiring consent should be abolished if it were up to me.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822
    Sandpit said:

    The Daily Maily Lurpak Spreadable Obsession continues.

    https://tinyurl.com/4decxxpd

    What? I bought butter yesterday for £1.60. Lurpak at £10?????
    The price of Lurpak Spreadable has displaced Meghan as the new Daily Mail obsession.

    There is normally an article every day on it the moment.
    What’s the underlying issue, they had a factory shut down with Covid, or a supply chain problem with one of the ingredients?
    I am not sure if I should spread this rumour but apparently Lurpak are creaming it in by milking the inflation crisis for all its worth. But er indoors thinks this story is not even margarinally true and just churned out by Russian bots.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    Pulpstar said:

    Zahawi hasn't pledged to cut spending by 20%. Well except for civil servants. He's going to cut those by 20%. Not the whole of spending.

    That's not going to pay for much in terms of tax cuts, is it?

    But yes, that's the sleight of hand here. Say that he found a way of cutting one (smallish and unusual) bit of spending by 20% and leave the impression that he can cut everything by 20% without reducing service quality.

    In "How to lie with statistics", Darrell Huff called it a semi-attached figure.
    He can't even cut the 20% he is suggesting (and let's ignore it's not new because it is already JRM's aim) without impacting service quality because the 20% he is cutting is 20% of the quality management
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Ah, here's the (post interview) clarification.

    https://news.sky.com/story/conservative-leadership-contender-nadhim-zahawi-gives-his-first-broadcast-interview-since-becoming-chancellor-12649736
    ...He told us how a 20% cut in the running costs of every government department would provide enough fiscal firepower to be able to cut taxes.
    But Mr Zahawi's team later clarified he meant cutting the civil service head count by 20%, not departmental spending...
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One area for cost saving - councils. Everyone needs a council, but noone needs more than that. Some upfront cost, but future savings as duplication is eliminated. Unitary system for all.

    I'm not sure there is much left to save with many councils. Other than having them go bust and writing off all their debts.
    Two websites needed to be hosted.
    Two offices,
    two sets of councillor expenses.

    https://www.nottinghamshire.gov.uk/
    https://www.bassetlaw.gov.uk/

    Save the £000s and the millions look after themselves
    Also, having a different highways v planning v local authority is a pain when they are the same person.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,497
    IshmaelZ said:

    The Daily Maily Lurpak Spreadable Obsession continues.

    https://tinyurl.com/4decxxpd

    What? I bought butter yesterday for £1.60. Lurpak at £10?????
    And it's not like spreadability is an issue in this weather, just leave it out of the fridge
    On the one hand apparently 14 million people live in poverty (BBC yesterday passim, something I am sorry to say I profoundly disbelieve), while The DM can worry about the problems of people who pay £4 a kilo more for an imported product than a UK alternative that has been less messed about with.

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,014

    https://twitter.com/lmharpin/status/1546394427375190016

    "Starmer to confirm pledge to end charitable status of private schools like Eton in speech today in Gateshead. He will say:”When I say we are going to pay for kids to catch up at school, I also say it’ll be funded by removing private schools’ charitable status."

    Taxing aspiration is never a good look.

    Nothing aspirational in being lucky enough to being born to wealthy and well-connected parents.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,898
    edited July 2022

    Scott_xP said:

    13-second long pitch. Shapps using brevity to stand out from rivals. https://twitter.com/grantshapps/status/1546406437567463424

    ‘I can help you win your seat’

    No messin’, straight for the selectorate’s jugular.
    It is very good, and notable that when Shapps goes through the list of "I can..." he just says "campaign" to avoid the jarring alliteration and rhyme (half-rhyme?) and break up the rhythm before it turns into a sing-song.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    The Daily Maily Lurpak Spreadable Obsession continues.

    https://tinyurl.com/4decxxpd

    A story which illustrates so many lies and misunderstandings about what is happening out there:
    1kg of butter? Who in their right mind buys that for domestic use? So the basic proposition is silly. Whats more, other brands are available who do basically the same product for less cost per kilo.

    But - and its a big but - read and understand the comments and analysis about the dairy industry. There have been some *whopping* price rises. So the industry can afford to pay people more. And yet cannot find staff. Because quite simply British workers do not want to work in agriculture / food. At any price. We continue to have a staff shortage. And the "point-based migration" system fails to do its job and bring people in.
    You mean its not bringing in people who are being offered competitive salaries?

    Or its not bringing in people at basically minimum wage?

    The migration system is designed, rightly, now to bring people in if their starting salary is about £30k+ . . . we shouldn't be looking to bring people in who are earning less than that, because if they're on less than that they're a net drain not a positive.

    So which jobs aren't being filled for a long time that are meeting that salary? Or do you mean that offering 10% over National Minimum Wage isn't enough?
    I mean that in the real world there is no solution other than imported labour. There is no labour pool available in many rural areas to do the work. So you're looking at farmers having to offer incentives to get people to relocate from Widnes to Wisbech to work in their dairy. Which they can't and the people won't. And even if they did the price of milk would then be so crazy that we would switch to cheaper imports.

    What you believe is great theory. Meanwhile in the real world...
    There are people who live in Wisbech already. Why aren't they doing the work?

    If you pay a competitive enough salary, then people will move to take the job. Or you can invest in somewhere there are people.

    "Bringing in people" is just getting people to move.

    There is no reason those people need to move from another country, rather than somewhere in this one, other than that National Minimum Wage will attract people to move from Eastern Europe to Wisbech but won't get people to move from Widnes to Wisbech. A decent salary and good terms and conditions on the other hand will do.

    If anyone is struggling to hire because they aren't paying a good salary, that's their problem, not ours. They either need to pay a good salary, or invest in automation, or their business isn't viable.
    Wisbech will be a commuter village now in the same way that Grasmere and elsewhere now are. The country side isn't full of unemployed people looking for work, it's full of retirees and rich commuters willing to drive 2 hours a day when required.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,790
    Mr. Sandpit, aye. That'll be an increased burden on state schools with zero extra funding.

    Politics of envy bullshit from Starmer.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    Just completed a ConHome survey with 54 combinations of two candidates to choose

    So have I
  • The Daily Maily Lurpak Spreadable Obsession continues.

    https://tinyurl.com/4decxxpd

    A story which illustrates so many lies and misunderstandings about what is happening out there:
    1kg of butter? Who in their right mind buys that for domestic use? So the basic proposition is silly. Whats more, other brands are available who do basically the same product for less cost per kilo.

    But - and its a big but - read and understand the comments and analysis about the dairy industry. There have been some *whopping* price rises. So the industry can afford to pay people more. And yet cannot find staff. Because quite simply British workers do not want to work in agriculture / food. At any price. We continue to have a staff shortage. And the "point-based migration" system fails to do its job and bring people in.
    You mean its not bringing in people who are being offered competitive salaries?

    Or its not bringing in people at basically minimum wage?

    The migration system is designed, rightly, now to bring people in if their starting salary is about £30k+ . . . we shouldn't be looking to bring people in who are earning less than that, because if they're on less than that they're a net drain not a positive.

    So which jobs aren't being filled for a long time that are meeting that salary? Or do you mean that offering 10% over National Minimum Wage isn't enough?
    I mean that in the real world there is no solution other than imported labour. There is no labour pool available in many rural areas to do the work. So you're looking at farmers having to offer incentives to get people to relocate from Widnes to Wisbech to work in their dairy. Which they can't and the people won't. And even if they did the price of milk would then be so crazy that we would switch to cheaper imports.

    What you believe is great theory. Meanwhile in the real world...
    There are people who live in Wisbech already. Why aren't they doing the work?

    If you pay a competitive enough salary, then people will move to take the job. Or you can invest in somewhere there are people.

    "Bringing in people" is just getting people to move.

    There is no reason those people need to move from another country, rather than somewhere in this one, other than that National Minimum Wage will attract people to move from Eastern Europe to Wisbech but won't get people to move from Widnes to Wisbech. A decent salary and good terms and conditions on the other hand will do.

    If anyone is struggling to hire because they aren't paying a good salary, that's their problem, not ours. They either need to pay a good salary, or invest in automation, or their business isn't viable.
    People won't move from Widnes to Wisbech when there's nowhere to live in Wisbech, apart from a bed in a dorm room. So many of our economic and social issues come back to the housing crisis.
    Well yes, but @RochdalePioneers is arguing people should move from Warsaw to Wisbech, but thinks its impossible to move from Widnes to Wisbech.

    If you need people to move for a job, that job needs to pay a competitive enough salary to entice people to move. The problem is that some businesses thought they could entice people to move for National Minimum Wage, where they'd have 7 workers living in a three bedroom house.

    That's no longer an option, but it never was healthy either.

    Either pay a decent salary, or invest in automation, or your business isn't viable.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822
    Nigelb said:

    Ah, here's the (post interview) clarification.

    https://news.sky.com/story/conservative-leadership-contender-nadhim-zahawi-gives-his-first-broadcast-interview-since-becoming-chancellor-12649736
    ...He told us how a 20% cut in the running costs of every government department would provide enough fiscal firepower to be able to cut taxes.
    But Mr Zahawi's team later clarified he meant cutting the civil service head count by 20%, not departmental spending...

    I would support this on the condition that any MPs who voted for it, give unlimited personal financial guarantees that if we subsequently re-employ the people we lay off as consultants on higher wages, as we inevitably will, then it is the MPs who fund it first until they all go bankrupt.

    Labour should propose such an amendment, to point out the silliness. Do we ever learn?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Sandpit said:

    The Daily Maily Lurpak Spreadable Obsession continues.

    https://tinyurl.com/4decxxpd

    What? I bought butter yesterday for £1.60. Lurpak at £10?????
    The price of Lurpak Spreadable has displaced Meghan as the new Daily Mail obsession.

    There is normally an article every day on it the moment.
    What’s the underlying issue, they had a factory shut down with Covid, or a supply chain problem with one of the ingredients?
    I am not sure if I should spread this rumour but apparently Lurpak are creaming it in by milking the inflation crisis for all its worth. But er indoors thinks this story is not even margarinally true and just churned out by Russian bots.
    Whey to go!
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    Sandpit said:

    The Daily Maily Lurpak Spreadable Obsession continues.

    https://tinyurl.com/4decxxpd

    What? I bought butter yesterday for £1.60. Lurpak at £10?????
    The price of Lurpak Spreadable has displaced Meghan as the new Daily Mail obsession.

    There is normally an article every day on it the moment.
    What’s the underlying issue, they had a factory shut down with Covid, or a supply chain problem with one of the ingredients?
    I am not sure if I should spread this rumour but apparently Lurpak are creaming it in by milking the inflation crisis for all its worth. But er indoors thinks this story is not even margarinally true and just churned out by Russian bots.
    Aldi own brand butter is now £1.75 per 250g so £7 per 1kg. 30% more for a branded product isn't that big a difference as I'm sure @RochdalePioneers will confirm
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    algarkirk said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    The Daily Maily Lurpak Spreadable Obsession continues.

    https://tinyurl.com/4decxxpd

    What? I bought butter yesterday for £1.60. Lurpak at £10?????
    And it's not like spreadability is an issue in this weather, just leave it out of the fridge
    On the one hand apparently 14 million people live in poverty (BBC yesterday passim, something I am sorry to say I profoundly disbelieve), while The DM can worry about the problems of people who pay £4 a kilo more for an imported product than a UK alternative that has been less messed about with.

    When you redefine ‘poverty’ to mean ‘inequality’, then there will always be poverty, and always be groups of the self-interested campaigning against it.

    That said, the issues with fuel and energy prices are causing serious problems, and need to be addressed before the winter.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One area for cost saving - councils. Everyone needs a council, but noone needs more than that. Some upfront cost, but future savings as duplication is eliminated. Unitary system for all.

    I'm not sure there is much left to save with many councils. Other than having them go bust and writing off all their debts.
    Or council tax going through the roof
    That has already happened. Your lot imposed the social care levy and removed direct funding of adult social care. The levy doesn't raise enough money to pay for care, so it leaves the council worse off AND people paying more council tax.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,898

    https://twitter.com/lmharpin/status/1546394427375190016

    "Starmer to confirm pledge to end charitable status of private schools like Eton in speech today in Gateshead. He will say:”When I say we are going to pay for kids to catch up at school, I also say it’ll be funded by removing private schools’ charitable status."

    Taxing aspiration is never a good look.

    Can you explain why private schools should be subsidised by the general publc?
    Good question. On the other hand, will it swing a single vote Labour's way? This smacks of red meat to keep MPs onside, rather than a serious attempt to address educational inequalities.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,962

    I've just seen Jenrick on skynews, I feel sick...

    I only heard him on R4 and I felt a bit off. Rishi isn’t going to need toilet paper with him around.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    HYUFD said:

    Just completed a ConHome survey with 54 combinations of two candidates to choose

    So have I
    The results are likely to be somewhat skewed, unless the whole of ConHome is similarly obsessive....

    .... Ah.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,064
    Sandpit said:

    https://twitter.com/lmharpin/status/1546394427375190016

    "Starmer to confirm pledge to end charitable status of private schools like Eton in speech today in Gateshead. He will say:”When I say we are going to pay for kids to catch up at school, I also say it’ll be funded by removing private schools’ charitable status."

    Taxing aspiration is never a good look.

    The problem is not the private schools “Like Eton”, it’s the hundreds of small community private schools up and down the country, to whom the middle classes aspire to send their children, many of whom rely on charitable status to survive. Tax them, to target schools “Like Eton”, and they’ll close, adding to the burden on the State and upsetting tens of thousands of parents.

    While leaving the actual Eton able to put their fees up a bit and not notice too much. It’s the worst class politics.
    Nearly all private schools seem very unlike what I think of when I think of a charity. I have no objection to private schools that actually act in a manner more like a typical charity having charitable status.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited July 2022

    https://twitter.com/lmharpin/status/1546394427375190016

    "Starmer to confirm pledge to end charitable status of private schools like Eton in speech today in Gateshead. He will say:”When I say we are going to pay for kids to catch up at school, I also say it’ll be funded by removing private schools’ charitable status."

    Taxing aspiration is never a good look.

    So the privately educated Starmer wants to pull the ladder up by removing the charitable status which funds more scholarships and bursaries and leads to facilities being shared with state schools and the community.

    Though no surprise, Labour governments always do it, even Blair's
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    @Big_G_NorthWales what NHS services would you cut?

    The simplest way would be to close every fifth hospital and GP surgery, and not replace them.
    Would anyone notice if the GPs disappeared ?
    Considering that they deliver 90% of healthcare consultations in primary care, I suspect so.
    Consultations have disappeared and, in my part of the country at least, that seems to be permanent.

    No, an email or a phone call isn't adequate.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    13-second long pitch. Shapps using brevity to stand out from rivals. https://twitter.com/grantshapps/status/1546406437567463424

    ‘I can help you win your seat’

    No messin’, straight for the selectorate’s jugular.
    How - given that he is responsible for cutting one of the biggest parts of levelling up. For every NIMBY who didn't want HS2E there are 5+ (possibly 50+) people who did.
    To oversimplify it greatly, HS2 passes through Tory seats and stops at Labour ones.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    Nigelb said:

    Ah, here's the (post interview) clarification.

    https://news.sky.com/story/conservative-leadership-contender-nadhim-zahawi-gives-his-first-broadcast-interview-since-becoming-chancellor-12649736
    ...He told us how a 20% cut in the running costs of every government department would provide enough fiscal firepower to be able to cut taxes.
    But Mr Zahawi's team later clarified he meant cutting the civil service head count by 20%, not departmental spending...

    So, he’s continuing Boris’ silly plan and wasting the savings on corporation tax cuts? Well it’s a view I suppose. I’m surprised how rot-brained they all are bar Sunak and (possibly) Mordaunt. Mostly because she hasn’t proposed much.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Sandpit said:

    https://twitter.com/lmharpin/status/1546394427375190016

    "Starmer to confirm pledge to end charitable status of private schools like Eton in speech today in Gateshead. He will say:”When I say we are going to pay for kids to catch up at school, I also say it’ll be funded by removing private schools’ charitable status."

    Taxing aspiration is never a good look.

    The problem is not the private schools “Like Eton”, it’s the hundreds of small community private schools up and down the country, to whom the middle classes aspire to send their children, many of whom rely on charitable status to survive. Tax them, to target schools “Like Eton”, and they’ll close, adding to the burden on the State and upsetting tens of thousands of parents.

    While leaving the actual Eton able to put their fees up a bit and not notice too much. It’s the worst class politics.
    Exactly.

    Eton will not be remotely affected by this.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784
    Sandpit said:

    https://twitter.com/lmharpin/status/1546394427375190016

    "Starmer to confirm pledge to end charitable status of private schools like Eton in speech today in Gateshead. He will say:”When I say we are going to pay for kids to catch up at school, I also say it’ll be funded by removing private schools’ charitable status."

    Taxing aspiration is never a good look.

    The problem is not the private schools “Like Eton”, it’s the hundreds of small community private schools up and down the country, to whom the middle classes aspire to send their children, many of whom rely on charitable status to survive. Tax them, to target schools “Like Eton”, and they’ll close, adding to the burden on the State and upsetting tens of thousands of parents.

    While leaving the actual Eton able to put their fees up a bit and not notice too much. It’s the worst class politics.
    If they rely entirely on charitable donations and don't charge for entry then they should keep their charitable status. Otherwise they are just organisations that provide a service primarily to people on above average incomes so it's a bit hard to see why, in an era of squeezed public finances, they are worthy of a public subsidy.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901

    The Daily Maily Lurpak Spreadable Obsession continues.

    https://tinyurl.com/4decxxpd

    A story which illustrates so many lies and misunderstandings about what is happening out there:
    1kg of butter? Who in their right mind buys that for domestic use? So the basic proposition is silly. Whats more, other brands are available who do basically the same product for less cost per kilo.

    But - and its a big but - read and understand the comments and analysis about the dairy industry. There have been some *whopping* price rises. So the industry can afford to pay people more. And yet cannot find staff. Because quite simply British workers do not want to work in agriculture / food. At any price. We continue to have a staff shortage. And the "point-based migration" system fails to do its job and bring people in.
    You mean its not bringing in people who are being offered competitive salaries?

    Or its not bringing in people at basically minimum wage?

    The migration system is designed, rightly, now to bring people in if their starting salary is about £30k+ . . . we shouldn't be looking to bring people in who are earning less than that, because if they're on less than that they're a net drain not a positive.

    So which jobs aren't being filled for a long time that are meeting that salary? Or do you mean that offering 10% over National Minimum Wage isn't enough?
    I mean that in the real world there is no solution other than imported labour. There is no labour pool available in many rural areas to do the work. So you're looking at farmers having to offer incentives to get people to relocate from Widnes to Wisbech to work in their dairy. Which they can't and the people won't. And even if they did the price of milk would then be so crazy that we would switch to cheaper imports.

    What you believe is great theory. Meanwhile in the real world...
    There are people who live in Wisbech already. Why aren't they doing the work?

    If you pay a competitive enough salary, then people will move to take the job. Or you can invest in somewhere there are people.

    "Bringing in people" is just getting people to move.

    There is no reason those people need to move from another country, rather than somewhere in this one, other than that National Minimum Wage will attract people to move from Eastern Europe to Wisbech but won't get people to move from Widnes to Wisbech. A decent salary and good terms and conditions on the other hand will do.

    If anyone is struggling to hire because they aren't paying a good salary, that's their problem, not ours. They either need to pay a good salary, or invest in automation, or their business isn't viable.
    Like I said, your theory is worthless compared to the reality on the ground. Having watched desperate factory managers offer substantially more than they were already paying (which was not minimum wage) in Anglia and not getting enough new staff to add a shift I know what reality is. Unlike you.

    And that was before Brexit. Its a lot worse now. There is no labour pool in rural areas waiting for someone to "just pay more".
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,583
    HYUFD said:

    As this absurd and ill judged race to promise widescale tax cuts develops I really hope Sunak v Mordaunt become the final two

    In terms of MP endorsements as stands it would be
    It may change radically as candidates drop out and transfer their support.

    I don't know the candidates well enough to predict who each will support. I guess it is a mix of friendship/enmity, hope of preference, policy.

    I've had a go for fun. See:
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Po2HA9a7DDVi8tuTf-cV-wXdEhIjcCUg2fGqRcvl_cI/edit?usp=sharing

    It ends up with Braverman being the king-maker between Mordaunt and Tugendhat. But what do I know!

    It does show how things can change.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Sandpit said:

    https://twitter.com/lmharpin/status/1546394427375190016

    "Starmer to confirm pledge to end charitable status of private schools like Eton in speech today in Gateshead. He will say:”When I say we are going to pay for kids to catch up at school, I also say it’ll be funded by removing private schools’ charitable status."

    Taxing aspiration is never a good look.

    The problem is not the private schools “Like Eton”, it’s the hundreds of small community private schools up and down the country, to whom the middle classes aspire to send their children, many of whom rely on charitable status to survive. Tax them, to target schools “Like Eton”, and they’ll close, adding to the burden on the State and upsetting tens of thousands of parents.

    While leaving the actual Eton able to put their fees up a bit and not notice too much. It’s the worst class politics.
    Exactly.

    Eton will not be remotely affected by this.
    The dear old "There are no marginal cases" PB fallacy. There's plenty of parents for whom this will make the difference beween just affordable, and not affordable.
This discussion has been closed.