The betting on next PM since BoJo bowed out – politicalbetting.com
Today is a big day in the contest to choose the next CON leader and of course next prime minister. The 1922 committee of Conservative backbench MPs will be meeting later to decide and then announce the various rules of the contest.
If you live in - say - a nice part of Los Angeles, you will find that the police force is a largely multi-ethnic force, of whites, hispanics and African Americans, who treat pretty much everyone pretty well.
Sure, there are petty grumbles. But I - and none of my friends - have any cause to be upset with our local police force.
What is true of West Los Angeles is not true of everywhere.
There are cities in the US where African Americans make up four in ten of the population, but less than one in ten of the police. With high segregated geography, and no African Americans that have ever progressed beyond the rank of patrolman... well, when the cop car cruises by, it looks awfully like an occupying army.
From where I sit, I don't see much in the way of discrimination. In nice middle class areas, where jobs are plenty, schools are well funded and the offence most likely to get you in a courthouse is speeding... well, life is pretty good.
But I'd sure as shit not like to grow up as a poor black man in Alabama or Mississippi.
I almost want him to win so I can watch the disaster from a distance - however, I do intend to live in the UK so can I point out how stupid this idea is...
It's also worth saying that the Government is going to see 5-10% cuts this year anyway because unless wages increase competent workers are going to be seeking better paid work elsewhere.
Nadh Zahawi tells Sky News he plans to impose 20% cuts on every government department in order to pay for his planned tax cuts.
And that 20 per cent figure tells us that this is either not serious or is damn stupid. It is plucked out of thin air, it is too large for simple efficiency savings (which, by the way, everyone has tried) but there is no accompanying policy that would naturally slice a fifth off anyone's spending; it is to be uniform across Whitehall, again with no regard to policy.
So what you're saying is that competent workers will be going to productive parts of the economy, where they will be generating taxes, and the cuts will feasibly happen anyway.
Brilliant way to balance the books. Go for it. 👍
1. The Conservative and Unionist Party DO put up candidates in Northern Ireland. https://www.niconservatives.com/
2. Neither Labour nor the LD do, I'm not sure why. I have some suspicion that Labour have said they never would. Having said that the SDLP take the Labour whip in Parliament. The Alliance I'm less sure about but I'm told their MP sits with the LDs.
3. UKIP HAVE run candidates in Northern Ireland, and I suspect the Greens have a local party too.
Re 2: Labour has reliable allies in the SDLP and members tends to be equivocal on the division of Ireland, so why get involved and split the vote? The LDs have reliable allies in the Allliance, so again, why split the vote? It just feels like a lot of effort and expense with an actually negative outcome. Why the Tories bother is a mystery to me.
If we lose our reception staff to the tills in Sainsbury then I become a very expensive booking clerk. Add in losing our best Specialist Trainees to Australia, and old timers like me to early retirement and agency locums then the whole system grinds to a halt very quickly.
No doubt other public services just the same.
That means UN aid convoys have lost their permission to take 1000 trucks a month of food, shelters and medicine from Turkey into NW #Syria.
More than 3m people in #Idlib rely on it.
Truss-backing Kwasi Kwarteng tells @kateferguson4 in The Sun: “We can’t simply be accountants trying to balance the books the whole time.”
Agree or not, that’s quite a thing for a CONSERVATIVE cabinet minister to say.
Imagine if a Labour frontbencher said that
These people literally don’t give a fuck.
Tax cuts. Burn the state.
Fucking crazy if you ask me, but from their perspective, it’ll be working fine. For them.
It is utterly pathetic, or possibly delusional from the Chancellor.
Kwasi Kwarteng - who is backing Liz Truss to be PM - agrees that public spending cuts will also be needed, (although won't say where) in order to bring down taxes.
The Conservatives are writing Labour's next election campaign for them.
When seeking to understand police shootings of Black people in the US, what historical events should we turn to? Does an understanding of Norse slavery tell us much about why it's happening? Does an analysis of the Barbary pirates abducting people into slavery shed much light? No, it's the transatlantic slave trade and slavery in the US, and then the Jim Crow period after slavery was abolished but segregation continued, that is clearly of relevance.
Yes, there has been other slavery in world history. But the reason why the BLM movement focuses on the enslavement of Black people in North America is obvious, because it's relevant to US police shootings, via a long history of the police being the enforcers of white supremacy, particularly in former slave states.
Responding to the BLM movement by saying that the transatlantic slave trade is a "small slice" of world history is odd, both because clearly the transatlantic slave trade is clearly a large slice of the history of slavery globally and because it ignores the direct relevance of the transatlantic slave trade to the specific issues BLM seeks to address.
I have no idea when it will happen but ultimately a new funding model will become unavoidable
And remove the state pension from every fifth pensioner.
The Treasury pays them the money it then recycles a fraction back to itself in tax. Its like saying the EU was paying for roads etc in this country when it was a fraction of our own money handed back to us.
Mrs Thatcher had 3 major pots of money to fund her tax cuts: North Sea oil, privatisations and deregulation of financial services in the big bang.
The next PM won't.
There needs to be a concerted international effort to put Putin back in his box, and to get global manufacturing and logistics back up and running. In the medium term, make a start on making high-end manufacturing less reliant on supply chains from unreliable autocracies such as China.
Not sure if this has been mentioned, but the MP threshold might be heightened for leadership candidates:
If I were Sunak and had support to spare, I'd be tempted to try and get someone helpful through the first stage.
Hi Turbo, re your reply to me on the last thread. To be honest I don't actually disagree with your post at all. You are correct, but I quite enjoyed my analogy so posted it and obviously others did by the likes it got, so I couldn't resist.
In terms of the substance of the post. Yes we have Brexited. I agree we have and we have to make the best of it.
However some on here refer to it having been done. There is a big difference between technically leaving (which any idiot could achieve) and leaving well (which could be in many forms). Many seem to believe (or argue anyway) it is done and dusted. It isn't.
Hence the plane crash analogy. Nobody would say a plane crashing is landing, but it is certainly on the ground. That is analogous to Brexit. We haven't landed it, we have crashed it.
I was illustrating the absurdity of rationing rules rather than making a serious suggestion btw.
It makes the valid point that as an advanced service economy, investment needs to go into the infrastructure for these, which sounds a lot like the Universities, not just into industrial plant.
If your going to pursue them, you have to be pretty certain they are going to work.
Not explicitly ruled out anywhere...
Still, fun analogy! It does all feel a bit plane-crashy at times.
Though Tugendhat and Truss are not far behind in joint 3rd
Zahawi's 'cut 20% of everything' is just the reductio ad absurdam of the message of the majority of the candidates.
161 mps voted
Sunak - 37
Mordaunt - 24
Tugenhat - 18
Truss - 18
There is normally an article every day on it the moment.
Asda prices today for Lurpak
The tax-slashing winner will get in - do one of the tax cuts probably income tax by adding to the debt pile and then bluster about the others until everyone has forgotten.
Truss's idea about turning covid debt into some kind of extremely long war bond might be worth looking into, but it is a very different world to the 1940s.
I suppose we could deregulate all medicines, let people use Google for self diagnosis and have a free market in healthcare. It would save on pharmacies too.
Whilst a Sunak-Mordaunt runoff would leave me cautiously hopeful, I suspect it would leave a lot of Conservative supporters seriously dischuffed.
1kg of butter? Who in their right mind buys that for domestic use? So the basic proposition is silly. Whats more, other brands are available who do basically the same product for less cost per kilo.
But - and its a big but - read and understand the comments and analysis about the dairy industry. There have been some *whopping* price rises. So the industry can afford to pay people more. And yet cannot find staff. Because quite simply British workers do not want to work in agriculture / food. At any price. We continue to have a staff shortage. And the "point-based migration" system fails to do its job and bring people in.
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Desperation to be thought a contender, I suppose.
In 2020 / 2021 inflation was a pipe dream - now it's reality and there is no way my pension fund is going to accept a 3-5% return when inflation is 10%...
"I don't think anyone is suggesting that the fact that he's carved them in stone means he's absolutely not going to break them or anything like that".
(Quality adjusted death year)