While just one poll, Labour's 43% showing is the highest we've seen for the party since Jan this year. This is an insufficient lead over the Conservatives on 35% to be assured of an overall majority were an election called, but Labour would be comfortably the largest party. https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1544043326164176896/photo/1
The chances of a lab overall majority are more or less Zero. There are three big reasons: 1) Maths 2) The Tories are unlikely to be this bad all the time (though Major's lot set a standard in this towards which they may be aspiring, perhaps as a result of a dare) 3) Policy. Because of Brexit it isn't possible for Labour to set out a stall of real policy difference, ie an ideological platform to win by inspiring. They don't dare take a pro EU line. This is understandable. So they have no choice but to take a line on the biggest issue of the day - UK/EU relations which everyone knows Labour don't really believe or support. and most voters don't believe or support it either. They just think we are stuck.
As a result Labour plan to win by being less bad than the other lot, not by conviction politics. This does not make for ideological excitement. Nor is it the stuff of landslides.
I agree, the timidity over Labour's policy direction, which rightly or wrongly is believed by few, is not the way to majority.
Possibly though Starmer would prefer a minority government.
It is hard to think what the least worst options are at the moment, as we live in an age in which the largest problems are not common problems seeking consensus solutions but problems of that 52-48 nature in which the absence of consensus about what the problem is, is critical to its nature.
FWIW I think a solid LD/Lab government is the best option; one which does not need SNP support. If tactical voting really took off this may be possible, though really unlikely. The number of seats that are Lab/LD contests is statistically insignificant.
I've been catching up with Designated Survivor on Netflix - this discussion is getting a bit like that, with the most unknown person catapulted into the leadership. I think the Tories may feel they need someone they've seen a fair amount of and know, faults and all. Which might mean Hunt vs Truss.
Truss at least inherited Harold Macmillan's old Russian fur hat. Surely a sign?
Yes, a sign of being a prize tit.
In these fervently anti-hat times it takes courage to plonk one on your head and risk looking a wally. It took me weeks after buying my first one to wear it in public, so I appaud her boldness if not its execution.
Well, ostrich feathers are not for everyone, so you were right to be cautious.
Feathers itch. Boas are the biggest fashion disappointment I have ever had. They look so nice but they are so uncomfortable!
1-in-8 Euros received in tax by the Irish government is paid by 10 multinational companies.
Not the tax dodging ones I assume?
I think it is, yes, in that they're dodging tax in other jurisdictions to pay tax at a lower rate in Ireland. Makes the Irish budget incredibly vulnerable to decisions by a very small number of people, or to changes in tax law, or the success/failure of a small number of companies.
I think I was the first person on here to tip Wallace, but I think he - like Mordaunt - are really just a black screen upon which Tories can project their fantasies.
Wallace seems sound but is essentially a grey man, and Mordaunt comes across as flakey with her rather odd pronouncements on trade.
Judging by the ConHome polling, I’d now say Zarhawi is the one to watch.
Wallace also beats Zahawi 52% to 28% in the ConHome survey
I've been catching up with Designated Survivor on Netflix - this discussion is getting a bit like that, with the most unknown person catapulted into the leadership. I think the Tories may feel they need someone they've seen a fair amount of and know, faults and all. Which might mean Hunt vs Truss.
Truss at least inherited Harold Macmillan's old Russian fur hat. Surely a sign?
Yes, a sign of being a prize tit.
In these fervently anti-hat times it takes courage to plonk one on your head and risk looking a wally. It took me weeks after buying my first one to wear it in public, so I appaud her boldness if not its execution.
Well, ostrich feathers are not for everyone, so you were right to be cautious.
Feathers itch. Boas are the biggest fashion disappointment I have ever had . They look so nice but they are so uncomfortable!
While just one poll, Labour's 43% showing is the highest we've seen for the party since Jan this year. This is an insufficient lead over the Conservatives on 35% to be assured of an overall majority were an election called, but Labour would be comfortably the largest party. https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1544043326164176896/photo/1
The chances of a lab overall majority are more or less Zero. There are three big reasons: 1) Maths 2) The Tories are unlikely to be this bad all the time (though Major's lot set a standard in this towards which they may be aspiring, perhaps as a result of a dare) 3) Policy. Because of Brexit it isn't possible for Labour to set out a stall of real policy difference, ie an ideological platform to win by inspiring. They don't dare take a pro EU line. This is understandable. So they have no choice but to take a line on the biggest issue of the day - UK/EU relations which everyone knows Labour don't really believe or support. and most voters don't believe or support it either. They just think we are stuck.
As a result Labour plan to win by being less bad than the other lot, not by conviction politics. This does not make for ideological excitement. Nor is it the stuff of landslides.
I agree, the timidity over Labour's policy direction, which rightly or wrongly is believed by few, is not the way to majority.
Possibly though Starmer would prefer a minority government.
Starmer is doing the right thing in attempting to neutralise Brexit as an election issue. It's not the main priority for most voters and Conservative attempts to try to re-animate the "Get Brexit Done" campaign as "Keep Brexit Done" should be thwarted.
I want to see what Labour actually proposes to do about the structural deficits in the economy and the deep-rooted problems that they cause for society in the manifesto: who and what are their spending priorities, and who and what are going to pay for them? This may very well turn out to be a damp squib, in which they promise nothing but more efficient management of the existing system and moving a few £bn around its edges, but I'm prepared to reserve judgment until I see what they actually propose.
Speaking of hats, one of Teddy Roosevelt's gimmicks, was wearing a sombrero-like hat with a verrrrrrrry wide brim, somewhat reminiscent of the cavalry hat he wore charging up San Juan Hill.
Fiorello LaGuardia, the fighting liberal who was the best mayor in the history of New York (do NOT blame HIM for today's LGA) also wore a big, broad-brimmed Stetson, in conscious imitation I think of TR who was indeed a hero for LaGuardia, himself a pugnacious, progressive Republican insurgent.
Interesting, both of these hat-lovers were born in New York City, and politically rooted in the city, but each had spent years of quality time in the American West (Roosevelt as a rancher in Dakota Territory, LaGuardia as an Army brat in Arizona Territory) and were even more popular in some ways in the West than in NYC.
Addendum - in interests of semi-full disclosure, as a boy my grandfather in PA was a big Teddy Roosevelt (TR won the state in 1912) while as a boy my father was a fan of La Guardia. In particular, for reading the funny papers over the radio to schoolkids during a newspaper strike:
I've been catching up with Designated Survivor on Netflix - this discussion is getting a bit like that, with the most unknown person catapulted into the leadership. I think the Tories may feel they need someone they've seen a fair amount of and know, faults and all. Which might mean Hunt vs Truss.
Truss at least inherited Harold Macmillan's old Russian fur hat. Surely a sign?
Yes, a sign of being a prize tit.
In these fervently anti-hat times it takes courage to plonk one on your head and risk looking a wally. It took me weeks after buying my first one to wear it in public, so I appaud her boldness if not its execution.
Surely not? I have quite a few hats and I love wearing them.
Believe this is one area where there is a gender difference. Traditional yet also modern.
Women can get away - with others and even more importantly with themselves - wearing any damn thing on their heads.
For example, those utterly hideous "fascinators" - ugh.
[snip!]
Fascinators are not hideous, well, most of them are not I have a lovely straw hat for summer and the weather so far has been a huge disappointment to me
Fascinators are token. They are: Not a hat. Don't keep rain or sun off. Don't keep you warm or cool. They exist only so that it cannot be said of her that she (always she - where are the fascinators for men) wasn't wearing something on her head at wedding/meeting HM the Queen etc. I suppose they fulfil the social obligation imposed, surplus to requirements, by St Paul on women in mixed company in Corinth. Extraordinary what a long life his off the cuff comments have had.
Survation is interesting. 43 is a very powerful score and with greens on 2 which is perhaps more realistic than the fantasy 8% type results and might be nearer the truth. However its also the second poll today with a more solid Con 35 score. A couple points swingback from there and its deep into chaotically hung territory. LabGrLD 56 so low end progressive team score.
Edit - also the second to show SNP down on 3. I'm unconvinced. Not yet seen any evidence the SNP 45 plus position is crumbling.
I've been catching up with Designated Survivor on Netflix - this discussion is getting a bit like that, with the most unknown person catapulted into the leadership. I think the Tories may feel they need someone they've seen a fair amount of and know, faults and all. Which might mean Hunt vs Truss.
Truss at least inherited Harold Macmillan's old Russian fur hat. Surely a sign?
Yes, a sign of being a prize tit.
In these fervently anti-hat times it takes courage to plonk one on your head and risk looking a wally. It took me weeks after buying my first one to wear it in public, so I appaud her boldness if not its execution.
Well, ostrich feathers are not for everyone, so you were right to be cautious.
Feathers itch. Boas are the biggest fashion disappointment I have ever had . They look so nice but they are so uncomfortable!
Too constricting?
I adder down as a plain scarf lady.
Plain scarf? certainly not!! I prefer a bit of glitz and glamour and colour in my scarves although I do need a new winter hat as my old one has gone for a burton. So I may well get a scarf and hat combo and possibly some nice new boot cut jeans as well.
And yet, the huge takeaway from the polling is that ConHome really really don't want Hunt, who is the only one who isn't tainted by association with this madness. I understand why (nobody wants to admit they screwed up) but gosh it's depressing.
Is ConHome only frequented by people who still think BoZo is the man though?
Is it actually representative of the voting members?
ConHome's final 2019 Tory leadership survey had it Johnson 73% Hunt 27%.
I've been catching up with Designated Survivor on Netflix - this discussion is getting a bit like that, with the most unknown person catapulted into the leadership. I think the Tories may feel they need someone they've seen a fair amount of and know, faults and all. Which might mean Hunt vs Truss.
Truss at least inherited Harold Macmillan's old Russian fur hat. Surely a sign?
Yes, a sign of being a prize tit.
In these fervently anti-hat times it takes courage to plonk one on your head and risk looking a wally. It took me weeks after buying my first one to wear it in public, so I appaud her boldness if not its execution.
Surely not? I have quite a few hats and I love wearing them.
Believe this is one area where there is a gender difference. Traditional yet also modern.
Women can get away - with others and even more importantly with themselves - wearing any damn thing on their heads.
For example, those utterly hideous "fascinators" - ugh.
[snip!]
Fascinators are not hideous, well, most of them are not I have a lovely straw hat for summer and the weather so far has been a huge disappointment to me
Fascinators are token. They are: Not a hat. Don't keep rain or sun off. Don't keep you warm or cool. They exist only so that it cannot be said of her that she (always she - where are the fascinators for men) wasn't wearing something on her head at wedding/meeting HM the Queen etc. I suppose they fulfil the social obligation imposed, surplus to requirements, by St Paul on women in mixed company in Corinth. Extraordinary what a long life his off the cuff comments have had.
Women's hats ceased to be mere rain keeper offers a very long time ago. Like Nefertiti time ago.
While just one poll, Labour's 43% showing is the highest we've seen for the party since Jan this year. This is an insufficient lead over the Conservatives on 35% to be assured of an overall majority were an election called, but Labour would be comfortably the largest party. https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1544043326164176896/photo/1
The chances of a lab overall majority are more or less Zero. There are three big reasons: 1) Maths 2) The Tories are unlikely to be this bad all the time (though Major's lot set a standard in this towards which they may be aspiring, perhaps as a result of a dare) 3) Policy. Because of Brexit it isn't possible for Labour to set out a stall of real policy difference, ie an ideological platform to win by inspiring. They don't dare take a pro EU line. This is understandable. So they have no choice but to take a line on the biggest issue of the day - UK/EU relations which everyone knows Labour don't really believe or support. and most voters don't believe or support it either. They just think we are stuck.
As a result Labour plan to win by being less bad than the other lot, not by conviction politics. This does not make for ideological excitement. Nor is it the stuff of landslides.
I agree, the timidity over Labour's policy direction, which rightly or wrongly is believed by few, is not the way to majority.
Possibly though Starmer would prefer a minority government.
Starmer is doing the right thing in attempting to neutralise Brexit as an election issue. It's not the main priority for most voters and Conservative attempts to try to re-animate the "Get Brexit Done" campaign as "Keep Brexit Done" should be thwarted.
I want to see what Labour actually proposes to do about the structural deficits in the economy and the deep-rooted problems that they cause for society in the manifesto: who and what are their spending priorities, and who and what are going to pay for them? This may very well turn out to be a damp squib, in which they promise nothing but more efficient management of the existing system and moving a few £bn around its edges, but I'm prepared to reserve judgment until I see what they actually propose.
Don't hold your breath. Fiscally the options are few. The Tories won't but should leave a note saying not only is there no money left but that the credit card is maxed out and the children's piggy bank raided.
I've been catching up with Designated Survivor on Netflix - this discussion is getting a bit like that, with the most unknown person catapulted into the leadership. I think the Tories may feel they need someone they've seen a fair amount of and know, faults and all. Which might mean Hunt vs Truss.
Truss at least inherited Harold Macmillan's old Russian fur hat. Surely a sign?
Yes, a sign of being a prize tit.
In these fervently anti-hat times it takes courage to plonk one on your head and risk looking a wally. It took me weeks after buying my first one to wear it in public, so I appaud her boldness if not its execution.
Well, ostrich feathers are not for everyone, so you were right to be cautious.
Feathers itch. Boas are the biggest fashion disappointment I have ever had . They look so nice but they are so uncomfortable!
Too constricting?
I adder down as a plain scarf lady.
Plain scarf? certainly not!! I prefer a bit of glitz and glamour and colour in my scarves although I do need a new winter hat as my old one has gone for a burton. So I may well get a scarf and hat combo and possibly some nice new boot cut jeans as well.
Sorry, no offence just had to make a stupid pun. I’m hoping boot cut jeans return for chaps - the acceptable face of flares.
Just when you are truly excited about what’s happening with Test cricket and England in particular after thinking you had seen it all come reports of racism in the Edgbaston crowd. Depressing
I've been catching up with Designated Survivor on Netflix - this discussion is getting a bit like that, with the most unknown person catapulted into the leadership. I think the Tories may feel they need someone they've seen a fair amount of and know, faults and all. Which might mean Hunt vs Truss.
Truss at least inherited Harold Macmillan's old Russian fur hat. Surely a sign?
Yes, a sign of being a prize tit.
In these fervently anti-hat times it takes courage to plonk one on your head and risk looking a wally. It took me weeks after buying my first one to wear it in public, so I appaud her boldness if not its execution.
Surely not? I have quite a few hats and I love wearing them.
Believe this is one area where there is a gender difference. Traditional yet also modern.
Women can get away - with others and even more importantly with themselves - wearing any damn thing on their heads.
For example, those utterly hideous "fascinators" - ugh.
[snip!]
Fascinators are not hideous, well, most of them are not I have a lovely straw hat for summer and the weather so far has been a huge disappointment to me
Fascinators are token. They are: Not a hat. Don't keep rain or sun off. Don't keep you warm or cool. They exist only so that it cannot be said of her that she (always she - where are the fascinators for men) wasn't wearing something on her head at wedding/meeting HM the Queen etc. I suppose they fulfil the social obligation imposed, surplus to requirements, by St Paul on women in mixed company in Corinth. Extraordinary what a long life his off the cuff comments have had.
Fascinators are not meant to be worn for weather. They are for indoors and sheltered events where a small hat is preferred to a large, clumsy one.
Next you will be telling me that fashion boots are meant to be waterproof!
Mark M Bathgate @m_bathgate · 5h This is the price of UK natural gas for this winter compared to the last 5 years - close to 900% higher now. This would take the average UK utility bill to around £4000. The energy crisis is getting worse fast and the UK government is completely asleep at the wheel. 😬
I've been catching up with Designated Survivor on Netflix - this discussion is getting a bit like that, with the most unknown person catapulted into the leadership. I think the Tories may feel they need someone they've seen a fair amount of and know, faults and all. Which might mean Hunt vs Truss.
I’ve not heard of that series, Nick. A quick Wiki suggests it might well appeal to me. Any good?
I've been catching up with Designated Survivor on Netflix - this discussion is getting a bit like that, with the most unknown person catapulted into the leadership. I think the Tories may feel they need someone they've seen a fair amount of and know, faults and all. Which might mean Hunt vs Truss.
Truss at least inherited Harold Macmillan's old Russian fur hat. Surely a sign?
Yes, a sign of being a prize tit.
In these fervently anti-hat times it takes courage to plonk one on your head and risk looking a wally. It took me weeks after buying my first one to wear it in public, so I appaud her boldness if not its execution.
Well, ostrich feathers are not for everyone, so you were right to be cautious.
Feathers itch. Boas are the biggest fashion disappointment I have ever had . They look so nice but they are so uncomfortable!
Too constricting?
I adder down as a plain scarf lady.
Plain scarf? certainly not!! I prefer a bit of glitz and glamour and colour in my scarves although I do need a new winter hat as my old one has gone for a burton. So I may well get a scarf and hat combo and possibly some nice new boot cut jeans as well.
Sorry, no offence just had to make a stupid pun. I’m hoping boot cut jeans return for chaps - the acceptable face of flares.
Flares can be a great look, but you really need great looking footwear to go with them, otherwise they just look a bit naff
I've been catching up with Designated Survivor on Netflix - this discussion is getting a bit like that, with the most unknown person catapulted into the leadership. I think the Tories may feel they need someone they've seen a fair amount of and know, faults and all. Which might mean Hunt vs Truss.
Truss at least inherited Harold Macmillan's old Russian fur hat. Surely a sign?
Yes, a sign of being a prize tit.
In these fervently anti-hat times it takes courage to plonk one on your head and risk looking a wally. It took me weeks after buying my first one to wear it in public, so I appaud her boldness if not its execution.
Surely not? I have quite a few hats and I love wearing them.
Where are all the former milleners? Ever seen footage of an old football match? Hats as far as the eye can see.
Allegedly it was an Ugly American - John Fitzgerald Kennedy - who did the deed.
Thus taking bread from mouths of hundreds of thousands of hatters (mad or not). AND dooming millions to brain freeze, sun-stroke OR the dreaded soaking-wet head.
Survation is interesting. 43 is a very powerful score and with greens on 2 which is perhaps more realistic than the fantasy 8% type results and might be nearer the truth. However its also the second poll today with a more solid Con 35 score. A couple points swingback from there and its deep into chaotically hung territory. LabGrLD 56 so low end progressive team score.
Edit - also the second to show SNP down on 3. I'm unconvinced. Not yet seen any evidence the SNP 45 plus position is crumbling.
Boris Johnson is Starmer's best hope.
Absolutely- from a narrow political advantage POV Labour would be wise to do almost anything to keep Bozza hanging in there.
However, the misery visited on the country is of a far greater concern, hence why I hope the Tories get rid (I agree that Zahawi is the best option).
I've been catching up with Designated Survivor on Netflix - this discussion is getting a bit like that, with the most unknown person catapulted into the leadership. I think the Tories may feel they need someone they've seen a fair amount of and know, faults and all. Which might mean Hunt vs Truss.
Truss at least inherited Harold Macmillan's old Russian fur hat. Surely a sign?
Yes, a sign of being a prize tit.
In these fervently anti-hat times it takes courage to plonk one on your head and risk looking a wally. It took me weeks after buying my first one to wear it in public, so I appaud her boldness if not its execution.
Surely not? I have quite a few hats and I love wearing them.
Believe this is one area where there is a gender difference. Traditional yet also modern.
Women can get away - with others and even more importantly with themselves - wearing any damn thing on their heads.
For example, those utterly hideous "fascinators" - ugh.
[snip!]
Fascinators are not hideous, well, most of them are not I have a lovely straw hat for summer and the weather so far has been a huge disappointment to me
Fascinators are token. They are: Not a hat. Don't keep rain or sun off. Don't keep you warm or cool. They exist only so that it cannot be said of her that she (always she - where are the fascinators for men) wasn't wearing something on her head at wedding/meeting HM the Queen etc. I suppose they fulfil the social obligation imposed, surplus to requirements, by St Paul on women in mixed company in Corinth. Extraordinary what a long life his off the cuff comments have had.
A feminist Christian once made the case to me that Paul was not being misogynist in his instruction that women should keep quiet in church and cover their heads. She made the point that previously women were not allowed in places of worship, so needed to be advised to do as men did, that is to keep quiet and cover their heads. I was almost convinced.
WHO is in favor, of having Leon find a convenient hat shop, purchase the finest traditional Montenegrin headgear that is procurable (on expense account)?
AND getting his picture taken sporting same, and posting it on PB, to encourage free trade between MNG & UK!
Heck, can even give Liz Truss credit if he chooses. Sir Leon having a nice ring?
I've been catching up with Designated Survivor on Netflix - this discussion is getting a bit like that, with the most unknown person catapulted into the leadership. I think the Tories may feel they need someone they've seen a fair amount of and know, faults and all. Which might mean Hunt vs Truss.
Truss at least inherited Harold Macmillan's old Russian fur hat. Surely a sign?
Yes, a sign of being a prize tit.
In these fervently anti-hat times it takes courage to plonk one on your head and risk looking a wally. It took me weeks after buying my first one to wear it in public, so I appaud her boldness if not its execution.
Surely not? I have quite a few hats and I love wearing them.
Believe this is one area where there is a gender difference. Traditional yet also modern.
Women can get away - with others and even more importantly with themselves - wearing any damn thing on their heads.
For example, those utterly hideous "fascinators" - ugh.
[snip!]
Fascinators are not hideous, well, most of them are not I have a lovely straw hat for summer and the weather so far has been a huge disappointment to me
Fascinators are token. They are: Not a hat. Don't keep rain or sun off. Don't keep you warm or cool. They exist only so that it cannot be said of her that she (always she - where are the fascinators for men) wasn't wearing something on her head at wedding/meeting HM the Queen etc. I suppose they fulfil the social obligation imposed, surplus to requirements, by St Paul on women in mixed company in Corinth. Extraordinary what a long life his off the cuff comments have had.
A feminist Christian once made the case to me that Paul was not being misogynist in his instruction that women should keep quiet in church and cover their heads. She made the point that previously women were not allowed in places of worship, so needed to be advised to do as men did, that is to keep quiet and cover their heads. I was almost convinced.
My own theory, is that Paul wanted to curb the well-known (and apparently eternal) enthusiasm of boys & men, for checking out girls and women in the next pew, or wherever they were perched, quite often hopeful of being checked out.
Mark M Bathgate @m_bathgate · 5h This is the price of UK natural gas for this winter compared to the last 5 years - close to 900% higher now. This would take the average UK utility bill to around £4000. The energy crisis is getting worse fast and the UK government is completely asleep at the wheel. 😬
I doubt it will be long before some senior Labour remainer breaks with Starmer's fence-sitting, either.
I think Starmer is outright lying on the EU
He does not expect a majority (rightly); if he gains power it will be with the help of the Libs and maybe other minor parties. The smaller parties will demand a move to the SM and CU, in some form. Korma will sigh and reluctantly agree, for the good of the nation and to prevent a Tory govt
Politically, highly astute. Morally, very questionable
Only conclusion I can reach at the moment is that Boris Johnson is a deep Labour sleeper agent.
And SKS is a deep sleeper Tory. Who will prove least incompetent? Confused? You will be.
I thought Corbyn was the sleeper Tory?
But Corbyn was how we got landed with Johnson, and Johnson is destroying the Tory Party as an electable proposition, opening the door for the first Labour election win for nearly twenty years. Corbyn is clearly a few steps ahead of the rest of them...
I doubt it will be long before some senior Labour remainer breaks with Starmer's fence-sitting, either.
I think Starmer is outright lying on the EU
He does not expect a majority (rightly); if he gains power it will be with the help of the Libs and maybe other minor parties. The smaller parties will demand a move to the SM and CU, in some form. Korma will sigh and reluctantly agree, for the good of the nation and to prevent a Tory govt
Politically, highly astute. Morally, very questionable
I doubt it will be long before some senior Labour remainer breaks with Starmer's fence-sitting, either.
I think Starmer is outright lying on the EU
He does not expect a majority (rightly); if he gains power it will be with the help of the Libs and maybe other minor parties. The smaller parties will demand a move to the SM and CU, in some form. Korma will sigh and reluctantly agree, for the good of the nation and to prevent a Tory govt
Politically, highly astute. Morally, very questionable
Yes, Starmer is either a complete hypocrite, changing his tune for a sniff of power, or deliberately dissembling. Neither is a good look.
I doubt it will be long before some senior Labour remainer breaks with Starmer's fence-sitting, either.
I think Starmer is outright lying on the EU
He does not expect a majority (rightly); if he gains power it will be with the help of the Libs and maybe other minor parties. The smaller parties will demand a move to the SM and CU, in some form. Korma will sigh and reluctantly agree, for the good of the nation and to prevent a Tory govt
Politically, highly astute. Morally, very questionable
What is a "move to the SM"?
Basically, the SM, but it might be prettied up by a new name
Why would the Libs NOT demand this as the price of govt? They really really believe it, and want it
I guess the price of their support could be another referendum on PR, but Labour will be greatly reluctant to grant that, and Libs also know these votes are easily lost
I doubt it will be long before some senior Labour remainer breaks with Starmer's fence-sitting, either.
I think Starmer is outright lying on the EU
He does not expect a majority (rightly); if he gains power it will be with the help of the Libs and maybe other minor parties. The smaller parties will demand a move to the SM and CU, in some form. Korma will sigh and reluctantly agree, for the good of the nation and to prevent a Tory govt
Politically, highly astute. Morally, very questionable
Can't see it. SM and CU membership aren't things you can just pick off the shelf - it will probably require years of negotiation. Sir Keir won't want to get bogged down by all that in a hung parliament with the Tories ready to play the 'Labour Cancelled Brexit' card at the next GE. Sir Keir will want to shelve the Brexit stuff and, ideally, leave it to a Tory successor of Boris to sort out.
If cheerleading a Johnson government withered a Tory soul back then, though, think how much harder it is now. Today, it is not only the self-harm of a hard Brexit that must be squared off with your conscience. It is also the proroguing of parliament, the partying through lockdown, the mad and brutal Rwanda policy, the facing down of international law. This is a Conservative government that breaks things, which is definitely not what conservatism used to be about.
I doubt it will be long before some senior Labour remainer breaks with Starmer's fence-sitting, either.
I think Starmer is outright lying on the EU
He does not expect a majority (rightly); if he gains power it will be with the help of the Libs and maybe other minor parties. The smaller parties will demand a move to the SM and CU, in some form. Korma will sigh and reluctantly agree, for the good of the nation and to prevent a Tory govt
Politically, highly astute. Morally, very questionable
🚨 Exclusive: Boris Johnson was made aware of a formal complaint about Chris Pincher's "inappropriate behaviour" while Mr Pincher was a Foreign Office minister from 2019-20, the BBC News can reveal.
I doubt it will be long before some senior Labour remainer breaks with Starmer's fence-sitting, either.
I think Starmer is outright lying on the EU
He does not expect a majority (rightly); if he gains power it will be with the help of the Libs and maybe other minor parties. The smaller parties will demand a move to the SM and CU, in some form. Korma will sigh and reluctantly agree, for the good of the nation and to prevent a Tory govt
Politically, highly astute. Morally, very questionable
I'm not so sure - we know from both the 2010 and 2017 experiences just how little leverage a junior partner in any kind of coalition or confidence arrangement has, especially when they have no alternatives (and the SNP and LDs can't just orchestrate a bidding war between Labour and the Tories for support, when it's politically nigh-on impossible for them to work with the latter at present.)
They're going to have to prioritise their demands and Europe isn't the number one priority for any party or for most of the electorate. In a hypothetical situation in which Starmer has to buy off both those other parties, electoral reform and devo max for Scotland are both more likely outcomes than a European compromise. Besides anything else, the Europhiles (outside of the fanatical fringe) aren't stupid - they'll understand that re-joining is going to be a lengthy process and not an event that can magically happen during the next Parliament. A defusing of tensions is the first step; a Norwegian arrangement can come later.
🚨 Exclusive: Boris Johnson was made aware of a formal complaint about Chris Pincher's "inappropriate behaviour" while Mr Pincher was a Foreign Office minister from 2019-20, the BBC News can reveal.
The man is always so careless with his denials and evasions, it should have scuppered him long ago, yet he has risen higher and higher for decades now. How does he do it? It's a remarkable talent, even considering his genuine charisma.
I doubt it will be long before some senior Labour remainer breaks with Starmer's fence-sitting, either.
I think Starmer is outright lying on the EU
He does not expect a majority (rightly); if he gains power it will be with the help of the Libs and maybe other minor parties. The smaller parties will demand a move to the SM and CU, in some form. Korma will sigh and reluctantly agree, for the good of the nation and to prevent a Tory govt
Politically, highly astute. Morally, very questionable
Can't see it. SM and CU membership aren't things you can just pick off the shelf - it will probably require years of negotiation. Sir Keir won't want to get bogged down by all that in a hung parliament with the Tories ready to play the 'Labour Cancelled Brexit' card at the next GE. Sir Keir will want to shelve the Brexit stuff and, ideally, leave it to a Tory successor of Boris to sort out.
Fair, but I am trying to picture the pressures there will be, on Starmer, to move towards the EU
Labour might be a one term govt. It could be their only chance to reverse a chunk of Brexit, and many on his side are DESPERATE to do that
Boris Johnson’s net favourability rating has made new lows (-32%), while about as many voters approve of Keir Starmer as disapprove, which, while nothing to celebrate, puts him 30 points ahead of the PM on this measure.
Overall, the two main parties are doing moderately better than their party leaders. The Labour party has a net favourability rating of 2%, with Conservatives on -21%, compared to Boris Johnson’s -32%.
Can't see it. SM and CU membership aren't things you can just pick off the shelf - it will probably require years of negotiation. Sir Keir won't want to get bogged down by all that in a hung parliament with the Tories ready to play the 'Labour Cancelled Brexit' card at the next GE. Sir Keir will want to shelve the Brexit stuff and, ideally, leave it to a Tory successor of Boris to sort out.
The Brexiteers spent 30 years whining about the imaginary stuff they couldn't do cos of the EU
A future Labour Government will make it very clear the problems caused by not being in the EU
They don't have to explicitly advocate rejoining. yet.
Only conclusion I can reach at the moment is that Boris Johnson is a deep Labour sleeper agent.
He's delivering Michael Foot's 1983 manifesto.
So, out of NATO soon?
Yup, although if Trump wins in 2024 I think NATO is dead and we'll see a European Army.
Even without the US NATO would still be more powerful militarily than the EU, including the UK, Canada and Turkey as well.
Though given Trump recently threatened to bomb Russia unless Putin withdrew from Ukraine if he was elected again as President, the idea he will be soft on Putin and withdraw from NATO is dubious. It was more European countries not paying their NATO fees he was concerned about, now resolved post Ukraine
I doubt it will be long before some senior Labour remainer breaks with Starmer's fence-sitting, either.
I think Starmer is outright lying on the EU
He does not expect a majority (rightly); if he gains power it will be with the help of the Libs and maybe other minor parties. The smaller parties will demand a move to the SM and CU, in some form. Korma will sigh and reluctantly agree, for the good of the nation and to prevent a Tory govt
Politically, highly astute. Morally, very questionable
Can't see it. SM and CU membership aren't things you can just pick off the shelf - it will probably require years of negotiation. Sir Keir won't want to get bogged down by all that in a hung parliament with the Tories ready to play the 'Labour Cancelled Brexit' card at the next GE. Sir Keir will want to shelve the Brexit stuff and, ideally, leave it to a Tory successor of Boris to sort out.
Fair, but I am trying to picture the pressures there will be, on Starmer, to move towards the EU
Labour might be a one term govt. It could be their only chance to reverse a chunk of Brexit, and many on his side are DESPERATE to do that
We shall see
TELEGRAPH: Sir Keir Starmer is facing a Labour revolt over Brexit after he vowed not to take Britain back into the Single Market.
In a keynote speech on Britain’s future outside the European Union, Sir Keir pledged to “make Brexit work” and said he would not seek to join the Single Market or a customs union.
But before he had even delivered his remarks, the Labour leader faced a backlash from within his own ranks, with Sadiq Khan, the Mayor of London, openly contradicting him.
I doubt it will be long before some senior Labour remainer breaks with Starmer's fence-sitting, either.
I think Starmer is outright lying on the EU
He does not expect a majority (rightly); if he gains power it will be with the help of the Libs and maybe other minor parties. The smaller parties will demand a move to the SM and CU, in some form. Korma will sigh and reluctantly agree, for the good of the nation and to prevent a Tory govt
Politically, highly astute. Morally, very questionable
Can't see it. SM and CU membership aren't things you can just pick off the shelf - it will probably require years of negotiation. Sir Keir won't want to get bogged down by all that in a hung parliament with the Tories ready to play the 'Labour Cancelled Brexit' card at the next GE. Sir Keir will want to shelve the Brexit stuff and, ideally, leave it to a Tory successor of Boris to sort out.
Fair, but I am trying to picture the pressures there will be, on Starmer, to move towards the EU
Labour might be a one term govt. It could be their only chance to reverse a chunk of Brexit, and many on his side are DESPERATE to do that
We shall see
TELEGRAPH: Sir Keir Starmer is facing a Labour revolt over Brexit after he vowed not to take Britain back into the Single Market.
In a keynote speech on Britain’s future outside the European Union, Sir Keir pledged to “make Brexit work” and said he would not seek to join the Single Market or a customs union.
But before he had even delivered his remarks, the Labour leader faced a backlash from within his own ranks, with Sadiq Khan, the Mayor of London, openly contradicting him.
Sadiq has no influence over Labour in Government, he's not an MP
I doubt it will be long before some senior Labour remainer breaks with Starmer's fence-sitting, either.
I think Starmer is outright lying on the EU
He does not expect a majority (rightly); if he gains power it will be with the help of the Libs and maybe other minor parties. The smaller parties will demand a move to the SM and CU, in some form. Korma will sigh and reluctantly agree, for the good of the nation and to prevent a Tory govt
Politically, highly astute. Morally, very questionable
Can't see it. SM and CU membership aren't things you can just pick off the shelf - it will probably require years of negotiation. Sir Keir won't want to get bogged down by all that in a hung parliament with the Tories ready to play the 'Labour Cancelled Brexit' card at the next GE. Sir Keir will want to shelve the Brexit stuff and, ideally, leave it to a Tory successor of Boris to sort out.
Fair, but I am trying to picture the pressures there will be, on Starmer, to move towards the EU
Labour might be a one term govt. It could be their only chance to reverse a chunk of Brexit, and many on his side are DESPERATE to do that
We shall see
TELEGRAPH: Sir Keir Starmer is facing a Labour revolt over Brexit after he vowed not to take Britain back into the Single Market.
In a keynote speech on Britain’s future outside the European Union, Sir Keir pledged to “make Brexit work” and said he would not seek to join the Single Market or a customs union.
But before he had even delivered his remarks, the Labour leader faced a backlash from within his own ranks, with Sadiq Khan, the Mayor of London, openly contradicting him.
Labour already has won London, even in 2019, it is the Tory held redwall seats it has to win back to have any chance of making Starmer PM
I doubt it will be long before some senior Labour remainer breaks with Starmer's fence-sitting, either.
I think Starmer is outright lying on the EU
He does not expect a majority (rightly); if he gains power it will be with the help of the Libs and maybe other minor parties. The smaller parties will demand a move to the SM and CU, in some form. Korma will sigh and reluctantly agree, for the good of the nation and to prevent a Tory govt
Politically, highly astute. Morally, very questionable
I'm not so sure - we know from both the 2010 and 2017 experiences just how little leverage a junior partner in any kind of coalition or confidence arrangement has, especially when they have no alternatives (and the SNP and LDs can't just orchestrate a bidding war between Labour and the Tories for support, when it's politically nigh-on impossible for them to work with the latter at present.)
They're going to have to prioritise their demands and Europe isn't the number one priority for any party or for most of the electorate. In a hypothetical situation in which Starmer has to buy off both those other parties, electoral reform and devo max for Scotland are both more likely outcomes than a European compromise. Besides anything else, the Europhiles (outside of the fanatical fringe) aren't stupid - they'll understand that re-joining is going to be a lengthy process and not an event that can magically happen during the next Parliament. A defusing of tensions is the first step; a Norwegian arrangement can come later.
I think that more realistic, that Labour will await events for next Parliament while making sure there is no further divergence, and indeed a bit of convergence to sort both NIP and Dover.
I doubt it will be long before some senior Labour remainer breaks with Starmer's fence-sitting, either.
I think Starmer is outright lying on the EU
He does not expect a majority (rightly); if he gains power it will be with the help of the Libs and maybe other minor parties. The smaller parties will demand a move to the SM and CU, in some form. Korma will sigh and reluctantly agree, for the good of the nation and to prevent a Tory govt
Politically, highly astute. Morally, very questionable
Can't see it. SM and CU membership aren't things you can just pick off the shelf - it will probably require years of negotiation. Sir Keir won't want to get bogged down by all that in a hung parliament with the Tories ready to play the 'Labour Cancelled Brexit' card at the next GE. Sir Keir will want to shelve the Brexit stuff and, ideally, leave it to a Tory successor of Boris to sort out.
Fair, but I am trying to picture the pressures there will be, on Starmer, to move towards the EU
Labour might be a one term govt. It could be their only chance to reverse a chunk of Brexit, and many on his side are DESPERATE to do that
We shall see
TELEGRAPH: Sir Keir Starmer is facing a Labour revolt over Brexit after he vowed not to take Britain back into the Single Market.
In a keynote speech on Britain’s future outside the European Union, Sir Keir pledged to “make Brexit work” and said he would not seek to join the Single Market or a customs union.
But before he had even delivered his remarks, the Labour leader faced a backlash from within his own ranks, with Sadiq Khan, the Mayor of London, openly contradicting him.
Sadiq has no influence over Labour in Government, he's not an MP
Sadiq: “Londoners elected me to be their champion, their advocate. I believe that our city and our country’s future is best served being members of the Single Market.”
Mr Khan was not the only senior Labour figure to voice dissent against the party line. Stella Creasy, the MP who chairs the Labour Movement for Europe, said: “We are only just beginning to understand the damage Brexit is doing to Britain.
“So we urge Keir to make sure nothing is off the table as a solution in the fight to tackle the cost of living crisis and protect jobs, trade and security.”
I doubt it will be long before some senior Labour remainer breaks with Starmer's fence-sitting, either.
I think Starmer is outright lying on the EU
He does not expect a majority (rightly); if he gains power it will be with the help of the Libs and maybe other minor parties. The smaller parties will demand a move to the SM and CU, in some form. Korma will sigh and reluctantly agree, for the good of the nation and to prevent a Tory govt
Politically, highly astute. Morally, very questionable
Can't see it. SM and CU membership aren't things you can just pick off the shelf - it will probably require years of negotiation. Sir Keir won't want to get bogged down by all that in a hung parliament with the Tories ready to play the 'Labour Cancelled Brexit' card at the next GE. Sir Keir will want to shelve the Brexit stuff and, ideally, leave it to a Tory successor of Boris to sort out.
Fair, but I am trying to picture the pressures there will be, on Starmer, to move towards the EU
Labour might be a one term govt. It could be their only chance to reverse a chunk of Brexit, and many on his side are DESPERATE to do that
We shall see
TELEGRAPH: Sir Keir Starmer is facing a Labour revolt over Brexit after he vowed not to take Britain back into the Single Market.
In a keynote speech on Britain’s future outside the European Union, Sir Keir pledged to “make Brexit work” and said he would not seek to join the Single Market or a customs union.
But before he had even delivered his remarks, the Labour leader faced a backlash from within his own ranks, with Sadiq Khan, the Mayor of London, openly contradicting him.
Sadiq has no influence over Labour in Government, he's not an MP
Sadiq: “Londoners elected me to be their champion, their advocate. I believe that our city and our country’s future is best served being members of the Single Market.”
Mr Khan was not the only senior Labour figure to voice dissent against the party line. Stella Creasy, the MP who chairs the Labour Movement for Europe, said: “We are only just beginning to understand the damage Brexit is doing to Britain.
“So we urge Keir to make sure nothing is off the table as a solution in the fight to tackle the cost of living crisis and protect jobs, trade and security.”
Bunch of idiots.
Regardless, it is clear what Labour policy is. And the Tories know it
Having turned net negative even among the 65+ (-9%) & Leave voters (-5%), there's only one demographic or political group in tonight's poll left with a + net approval rating for Boris Johnson & that's past Conservative voters (+10). A hefty 40% of CON 2019s are now unfavourable:
Mark M Bathgate @m_bathgate · 5h This is the price of UK natural gas for this winter compared to the last 5 years - close to 900% higher now. This would take the average UK utility bill to around £4000. The energy crisis is getting worse fast and the UK government is completely asleep at the wheel. 😬
I don't recognise those figures. According to the futures exchanges, it's "only" up ~4x.
Oh, I see the graph actually shows 8x, but 4x in the last year (i.e. the main trading period). I actually don't know what proportion of the UK's domestic supply for December has already been bought.
I doubt it will be long before some senior Labour remainer breaks with Starmer's fence-sitting, either.
I think Starmer is outright lying on the EU
He does not expect a majority (rightly); if he gains power it will be with the help of the Libs and maybe other minor parties. The smaller parties will demand a move to the SM and CU, in some form. Korma will sigh and reluctantly agree, for the good of the nation and to prevent a Tory govt
Politically, highly astute. Morally, very questionable
Can't see it. SM and CU membership aren't things you can just pick off the shelf - it will probably require years of negotiation. Sir Keir won't want to get bogged down by all that in a hung parliament with the Tories ready to play the 'Labour Cancelled Brexit' card at the next GE. Sir Keir will want to shelve the Brexit stuff and, ideally, leave it to a Tory successor of Boris to sort out.
Fair, but I am trying to picture the pressures there will be, on Starmer, to move towards the EU
Labour might be a one term govt. It could be their only chance to reverse a chunk of Brexit, and many on his side are DESPERATE to do that
We shall see
TELEGRAPH: Sir Keir Starmer is facing a Labour revolt over Brexit after he vowed not to take Britain back into the Single Market.
In a keynote speech on Britain’s future outside the European Union, Sir Keir pledged to “make Brexit work” and said he would not seek to join the Single Market or a customs union.
But before he had even delivered his remarks, the Labour leader faced a backlash from within his own ranks, with Sadiq Khan, the Mayor of London, openly contradicting him.
A beautifully orchestrated artificial row, to highlight Starmer as being a commanding leader.
I doubt it will be long before some senior Labour remainer breaks with Starmer's fence-sitting, either.
I think Starmer is outright lying on the EU
He does not expect a majority (rightly); if he gains power it will be with the help of the Libs and maybe other minor parties. The smaller parties will demand a move to the SM and CU, in some form. Korma will sigh and reluctantly agree, for the good of the nation and to prevent a Tory govt
Politically, highly astute. Morally, very questionable
Can't see it. SM and CU membership aren't things you can just pick off the shelf - it will probably require years of negotiation. Sir Keir won't want to get bogged down by all that in a hung parliament with the Tories ready to play the 'Labour Cancelled Brexit' card at the next GE. Sir Keir will want to shelve the Brexit stuff and, ideally, leave it to a Tory successor of Boris to sort out.
Fair, but I am trying to picture the pressures there will be, on Starmer, to move towards the EU
Labour might be a one term govt. It could be their only chance to reverse a chunk of Brexit, and many on his side are DESPERATE to do that
We shall see
TELEGRAPH: Sir Keir Starmer is facing a Labour revolt over Brexit after he vowed not to take Britain back into the Single Market.
In a keynote speech on Britain’s future outside the European Union, Sir Keir pledged to “make Brexit work” and said he would not seek to join the Single Market or a customs union.
But before he had even delivered his remarks, the Labour leader faced a backlash from within his own ranks, with Sadiq Khan, the Mayor of London, openly contradicting him.
Sadiq has no influence over Labour in Government, he's not an MP
Sadiq: “Londoners elected me to be their champion, their advocate. I believe that our city and our country’s future is best served being members of the Single Market.”
Mr Khan was not the only senior Labour figure to voice dissent against the party line. Stella Creasy, the MP who chairs the Labour Movement for Europe, said: “We are only just beginning to understand the damage Brexit is doing to Britain.
“So we urge Keir to make sure nothing is off the table as a solution in the fight to tackle the cost of living crisis and protect jobs, trade and security.”
Bunch of idiots.
Regardless, it is clear what Labour policy is. And the Tories know it
I doubt it will be long before some senior Labour remainer breaks with Starmer's fence-sitting, either.
I think Starmer is outright lying on the EU
He does not expect a majority (rightly); if he gains power it will be with the help of the Libs and maybe other minor parties. The smaller parties will demand a move to the SM and CU, in some form. Korma will sigh and reluctantly agree, for the good of the nation and to prevent a Tory govt
Politically, highly astute. Morally, very questionable
Can't see it. SM and CU membership aren't things you can just pick off the shelf - it will probably require years of negotiation. Sir Keir won't want to get bogged down by all that in a hung parliament with the Tories ready to play the 'Labour Cancelled Brexit' card at the next GE. Sir Keir will want to shelve the Brexit stuff and, ideally, leave it to a Tory successor of Boris to sort out.
Fair, but I am trying to picture the pressures there will be, on Starmer, to move towards the EU
Labour might be a one term govt. It could be their only chance to reverse a chunk of Brexit, and many on his side are DESPERATE to do that
We shall see
TELEGRAPH: Sir Keir Starmer is facing a Labour revolt over Brexit after he vowed not to take Britain back into the Single Market.
In a keynote speech on Britain’s future outside the European Union, Sir Keir pledged to “make Brexit work” and said he would not seek to join the Single Market or a customs union.
But before he had even delivered his remarks, the Labour leader faced a backlash from within his own ranks, with Sadiq Khan, the Mayor of London, openly contradicting him.
Sadiq has no influence over Labour in Government, he's not an MP
Sadiq: “Londoners elected me to be their champion, their advocate. I believe that our city and our country’s future is best served being members of the Single Market.”
Mr Khan was not the only senior Labour figure to voice dissent against the party line. Stella Creasy, the MP who chairs the Labour Movement for Europe, said: “We are only just beginning to understand the damage Brexit is doing to Britain.
“So we urge Keir to make sure nothing is off the table as a solution in the fight to tackle the cost of living crisis and protect jobs, trade and security.”
Bunch of idiots.
Regardless, it is clear what Labour policy is. And the Tories know it
I doubt it will be long before some senior Labour remainer breaks with Starmer's fence-sitting, either.
I think Starmer is outright lying on the EU
He does not expect a majority (rightly); if he gains power it will be with the help of the Libs and maybe other minor parties. The smaller parties will demand a move to the SM and CU, in some form. Korma will sigh and reluctantly agree, for the good of the nation and to prevent a Tory govt
Politically, highly astute. Morally, very questionable
Can't see it. SM and CU membership aren't things you can just pick off the shelf - it will probably require years of negotiation. Sir Keir won't want to get bogged down by all that in a hung parliament with the Tories ready to play the 'Labour Cancelled Brexit' card at the next GE. Sir Keir will want to shelve the Brexit stuff and, ideally, leave it to a Tory successor of Boris to sort out.
Fair, but I am trying to picture the pressures there will be, on Starmer, to move towards the EU
Labour might be a one term govt. It could be their only chance to reverse a chunk of Brexit, and many on his side are DESPERATE to do that
We shall see
TELEGRAPH: Sir Keir Starmer is facing a Labour revolt over Brexit after he vowed not to take Britain back into the Single Market.
In a keynote speech on Britain’s future outside the European Union, Sir Keir pledged to “make Brexit work” and said he would not seek to join the Single Market or a customs union.
But before he had even delivered his remarks, the Labour leader faced a backlash from within his own ranks, with Sadiq Khan, the Mayor of London, openly contradicting him.
A beautifully orchestrated artificial row, to highlight Starmer as being a commanding leader.
I doubt it will be long before some senior Labour remainer breaks with Starmer's fence-sitting, either.
I think Starmer is outright lying on the EU
He does not expect a majority (rightly); if he gains power it will be with the help of the Libs and maybe other minor parties. The smaller parties will demand a move to the SM and CU, in some form. Korma will sigh and reluctantly agree, for the good of the nation and to prevent a Tory govt
Politically, highly astute. Morally, very questionable
Can't see it. SM and CU membership aren't things you can just pick off the shelf - it will probably require years of negotiation. Sir Keir won't want to get bogged down by all that in a hung parliament with the Tories ready to play the 'Labour Cancelled Brexit' card at the next GE. Sir Keir will want to shelve the Brexit stuff and, ideally, leave it to a Tory successor of Boris to sort out.
Fair, but I am trying to picture the pressures there will be, on Starmer, to move towards the EU
Labour might be a one term govt. It could be their only chance to reverse a chunk of Brexit, and many on his side are DESPERATE to do that
We shall see
TELEGRAPH: Sir Keir Starmer is facing a Labour revolt over Brexit after he vowed not to take Britain back into the Single Market.
In a keynote speech on Britain’s future outside the European Union, Sir Keir pledged to “make Brexit work” and said he would not seek to join the Single Market or a customs union.
But before he had even delivered his remarks, the Labour leader faced a backlash from within his own ranks, with Sadiq Khan, the Mayor of London, openly contradicting him.
Sadiq has no influence over Labour in Government, he's not an MP
I do wonder how Slab feel from a markedly pro-EU Scotland.
I doubt it will be long before some senior Labour remainer breaks with Starmer's fence-sitting, either.
I think Starmer is outright lying on the EU
He does not expect a majority (rightly); if he gains power it will be with the help of the Libs and maybe other minor parties. The smaller parties will demand a move to the SM and CU, in some form. Korma will sigh and reluctantly agree, for the good of the nation and to prevent a Tory govt
Politically, highly astute. Morally, very questionable
Can't see it. SM and CU membership aren't things you can just pick off the shelf - it will probably require years of negotiation. Sir Keir won't want to get bogged down by all that in a hung parliament with the Tories ready to play the 'Labour Cancelled Brexit' card at the next GE. Sir Keir will want to shelve the Brexit stuff and, ideally, leave it to a Tory successor of Boris to sort out.
Fair, but I am trying to picture the pressures there will be, on Starmer, to move towards the EU
Labour might be a one term govt. It could be their only chance to reverse a chunk of Brexit, and many on his side are DESPERATE to do that
We shall see
TELEGRAPH: Sir Keir Starmer is facing a Labour revolt over Brexit after he vowed not to take Britain back into the Single Market.
In a keynote speech on Britain’s future outside the European Union, Sir Keir pledged to “make Brexit work” and said he would not seek to join the Single Market or a customs union.
But before he had even delivered his remarks, the Labour leader faced a backlash from within his own ranks, with Sadiq Khan, the Mayor of London, openly contradicting him.
If Labour Europhiles are unhappy, it's a good day's work for SKS.
One of the ways you can tell that a leader of the opposition is on their way to No 10 is when they are confident enough to go against their own supporters.
(And, whisper it quietly, if Starmer moves the UK from a trajectory flying away from the EU to one in a clear but distant orbit, he's done as much as he can do 2024-9. But also as much as he needs to do. He won't promise signing up to the Single Market, because that would be electoral kryptonite, and probably still will be in 2023/4/5. But he can tweak the climate so that it's a plausible option to offer in 2029/30.
Long-term, the Starmer Plan will work less badly than the Johnson plan, but not well enough. But the government is going to have to follow the people on this one, and that will take time...)
I'm really struggling to understand the wisdom of Starmer's Brexit position. He has ruled out almost everything Remainers want as a sop, and left himself essentially arguing for a harder Brexit than many Brexiteers support. This has the feel of something that is going to end up biting Starmer on the arse, probably after he weakens his promises to appease Labour supporters, and ends up with the Tories saying "he's going to rejoin the EU". He could have said "we'll do better" without painting himself into a corner.
Boris Johnson’s net favourability rating has made new lows (-32%), while about as many voters approve of Keir Starmer as disapprove, which, while nothing to celebrate, puts him 30 points ahead of the PM on this measure.
Yes but the reason that both parties are more more popular than their leaders is both about Borus Johnson. The ones that would vote Con despite him make Con more popular than him, those that would vote Lab because of him make the Labour party more popular than Keir!
Comments
FWIW I think a solid LD/Lab government is the best option; one which does not need SNP support. If tactical voting really took off this may be possible, though really unlikely. The number of seats that are Lab/LD contests is statistically insignificant.
https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/04/next-tory-leader-play-offs-fourth-nadhim-zahawi/
I want to see what Labour actually proposes to do about the structural deficits in the economy and the deep-rooted problems that they cause for society in the manifesto: who and what are their spending priorities, and who and what are going to pay for them? This may very well turn out to be a damp squib, in which they promise nothing but more efficient management of the existing system and moving a few £bn around its edges, but I'm prepared to reserve judgment until I see what they actually propose.
Fiorello LaGuardia, the fighting liberal who was the best mayor in the history of New York (do NOT blame HIM for today's LGA) also wore a big, broad-brimmed Stetson, in conscious imitation I think of TR who was indeed a hero for LaGuardia, himself a pugnacious, progressive Republican insurgent.
Interesting, both of these hat-lovers were born in New York City, and politically rooted in the city, but each had spent years of quality time in the American West (Roosevelt as a rancher in Dakota Territory, LaGuardia as an Army brat in Arizona Territory) and were even more popular in some ways in the West than in NYC.
Addendum - in interests of semi-full disclosure, as a boy my grandfather in PA was a big Teddy Roosevelt (TR won the state in 1912) while as a boy my father was a fan of La Guardia. In particular, for reading the funny papers over the radio to schoolkids during a newspaper strike:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GWkOZKPLeo8
https://conservativehome.com/2019/07/21/our-final-next-tory-leader-survey-johnson-73-per-cent-hunt-27-per-cent-say-those-members-who-have-voted/
Johnson won it 66% to 34% for Hunt.
So while it leans fractionally right of the Tory membership overall it is still pretty accurate
https://twitter.com/Paul_NewmanDM/status/1544056114588880898
In the words of Billy Connolly, he had been walking downhill for 20 years...
Next you will be telling me that fashion boots are meant to be waterproof!
Also unrelated, Arsenal really missed out on the Bissouma signing.
The significance being, of course, not the information itself, but that even Downing Street staff are now starting to bail on Johnson...
Mark M Bathgate
@m_bathgate
·
5h
This is the price of UK natural gas for this winter compared to the last 5 years - close to 900% higher now. This would take the average UK utility bill to around £4000. The energy crisis is getting worse fast and the UK government is completely asleep at the wheel. 😬
https://twitter.com/m_bathgate/status/1543971202435276800
Thus taking bread from mouths of hundreds of thousands of hatters (mad or not). AND dooming millions to brain freeze, sun-stroke OR the dreaded soaking-wet head.
Who will prove least incompetent?
Confused? You will be.
BoZo first big mis-step was Opatz. Is Pincher his last?
However, the misery visited on the country is of a far greater concern, hence why I hope the Tories get rid (I agree that Zahawi is the best option).
"What was that about people aren't wearing enough hats again?"
AND getting his picture taken sporting same, and posting it on PB, to encourage free trade between MNG & UK!
Heck, can even give Liz Truss credit if he chooses. Sir Leon having a nice ring?
He visibly put the wind up for a while.
Though deploring Bonnie Prince Charlie's unseemingly wokeish coddling of uppity Scots.
He does not expect a majority (rightly); if he gains power it will be with the help of the Libs and maybe other minor parties. The smaller parties will demand a move to the SM and CU, in some form. Korma will sigh and reluctantly agree, for the good of the nation and to prevent a Tory govt
Politically, highly astute. Morally, very questionable
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1995-10-20-mn-59086-story.html
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-will-overlook-anything-if-youre-loyal-6q22mklv2?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1656965202-1
Why would the Libs NOT demand this as the price of govt? They really really believe it, and want it
I guess the price of their support could be another referendum on PR, but Labour will be greatly reluctant to grant that, and Libs also know these votes are easily lost
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-will-overlook-anything-if-youre-loyal-6q22mklv2
https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-looks-increasingly-isolated-over-chris-pincher-saga-and-it-could-get-worse-still-12645917?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter
More from me on BBC News at 10 tonight 📺
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62040915
They're going to have to prioritise their demands and Europe isn't the number one priority for any party or for most of the electorate. In a hypothetical situation in which Starmer has to buy off both those other parties, electoral reform and devo max for Scotland are both more likely outcomes than a European compromise. Besides anything else, the Europhiles (outside of the fanatical fringe) aren't stupid - they'll understand that re-joining is going to be a lengthy process and not an event that can magically happen during the next Parliament. A defusing of tensions is the first step; a Norwegian arrangement can come later.
LAB 43% (+2)
CON 35% (+1)
LD 11% (+1)
SNP 3% (-1)
GRN 2% (-1)
OTH 5% (-2)
1,017 UK adults aged 18+ online, 27th June '22. Changes w/ June 17th ‘22
Keir Starmer has done it, he has re-built the 1997 coalition.
Labour might be a one term govt. It could be their only chance to reverse a chunk of Brexit, and many on his side are DESPERATE to do that
We shall see
A future Labour Government will make it very clear the problems caused by not being in the EU
They don't have to explicitly advocate rejoining. yet.
Though given Trump recently threatened to bomb Russia unless Putin withdrew from Ukraine if he was elected again as President, the idea he will be soft on Putin and withdraw from NATO is dubious. It was more European countries not paying their NATO fees he was concerned about, now resolved post Ukraine
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2022/03/donald-trump-russia-nuclear-submarines
Sir Keir Starmer is facing a Labour revolt over Brexit after he vowed not to take Britain back into the Single Market.
In a keynote speech on Britain’s future outside the European Union, Sir Keir pledged to “make Brexit work” and said he would not seek to join the Single Market or a customs union.
But before he had even delivered his remarks, the Labour leader faced a backlash from within his own ranks, with Sadiq Khan, the Mayor of London, openly contradicting him.
“Londoners elected me to be their champion, their advocate. I believe that our city and our country’s future is best served being members of the Single Market.”
Mr Khan was not the only senior Labour figure to voice dissent against the party line. Stella Creasy, the MP who chairs the Labour Movement for Europe, said: “We are only just beginning to understand the damage Brexit is doing to Britain.
“So we urge Keir to make sure nothing is off the table as a solution in the fight to tackle the cost of living crisis and protect jobs, trade and security.”
Regardless, it is clear what Labour policy is. And the Tories know it
https://twitter.com/DamianSurvation/status/1544070282155098114
Oh, I see the graph actually shows 8x, but 4x in the last year (i.e. the main trading period). I actually don't know what proportion of the UK's domestic supply for December has already been bought.
One of the ways you can tell that a leader of the opposition is on their way to No 10 is when they are confident enough to go against their own supporters.
(And, whisper it quietly, if Starmer moves the UK from a trajectory flying away from the EU to one in a clear but distant orbit, he's done as much as he can do 2024-9. But also as much as he needs to do. He won't promise signing up to the Single Market, because that would be electoral kryptonite, and probably still will be in 2023/4/5. But he can tweak the climate so that it's a plausible option to offer in 2029/30.
Long-term, the Starmer Plan will work less badly than the Johnson plan, but not well enough. But the government is going to have to follow the people on this one, and that will take time...)
https://twitter.com/santiagomayer_/status/1543983844059222017