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This looks problematic for Number 10 – politicalbetting.com

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  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Many disastrous things are happening to the Tories. Not sure this is one

    So Boris knew this guy had a character flaw, but decided to give him the benefit of the doubt. Isn’t that the charitable, Christian thing to do?

    Perhaps Mr Pincher was given a warning before he took up the job? “No groping, please”. Which would be entirely fair

    Or are we going to ban anyone from having a job if they have “a reputation”?

    Certainly having a Finance Minister who rather liked very young chaps in their sports kit didn't ultimately damage the SNP very much.
    True - but a different context. This is all about Boris and is another nail in the coffin.

    For the older among us, this is all too reminiscent of poor ole "Back to Basics" John Major and the neverending series of sleaze stories that helped terminate his government.

    BJ will not be leading the Tories into the next GE. The hearts of the backbenchers are hardening.
    As standards dwindle even further under BoJo, still no sign as to how they’ll get rid of him

    1922 committee.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/29/ruthlessly-organised-tory-rebels-plot-1922-takeover-to-oust-boris-johnson

    Looks ominous for BJ.
    End days when a PB Tory uses the Graun as a source. But perhaps that is the point.
    Yep. BTW how many points do you think Boris is worth to the Yes numbers?
    Gut feeling is, not actually making so much of a difference now if he goes. He's contaminated so much.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Not that I’d want to enrage HFUYD on here and summon the tanks..

    Poll in @SundayTimesScot: “On the question of whether or not they support independence, 48 per cent said they were in favour while 47 per cent were opposed. Five per cent said they did not know.”

    ..Nicola Sturgeon has tweeted her delight at the poll. But I can’t see how Scotland isn’t stuck in a cycle of despair if that continues. Even if a vote is held and won by yes, the division won’t end.

    First Yes lead in quite a while - a mighty 1%. Surprised that she should "tweet her delight" at that TBH.
    Well, she’s taken a punt on it, so I’d imagine she wants to encourage the base as well

    Remember 2014. Quite an increase in Yes over the time of the campaign.
    But there isn’t going to be a campaign
    Which rather shows up your anti-democratic views. Never a good look, with a U-turn coming.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    pigeon said:

    On topic: is this really a problem for No.10? There have now been so many scandals that you wonder if the public has reached saturation point and fails to notice any new ones.

    I reckon that an organised vice ring of Tory MPs could be found to have been running an operation hawking rent boys and cocaine from the House of Commons tea room (and splitting the profits 50:50 with the Russian Embassy,) and the Conservative Party still wouldn't drop any further in the polls.

    But IF instead the executive of 1922 Committee was revealed to be at center of massive Westminster dog-napping ring, sending innocent British bulldogs, etc. to be grisly (and gristly) fodder for the Persian Gulf dog-fighting pits, MIGHT just be a different story psephologically-speaking?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,282
    I just filled up my car in Montenegro

    I felt exceedingly grown up. In my late 50s, doing basic things in an exotic country can still give me that childish thrill

  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839

    pigeon said:

    On topic: is this really a problem for No.10? There have now been so many scandals that you wonder if the public has reached saturation point and fails to notice any new ones.

    I reckon that an organised vice ring of Tory MPs could be found to have been running an operation hawking rent boys and cocaine from the House of Commons tea room (and splitting the profits 50:50 with the Russian Embassy,) and the Conservative Party still wouldn't drop any further in the polls.

    Sleaze is always baked in, I remember a pollster telling me what sticks in the mind of the public is hypocrisy and behaviour that is likely to see you signing the nonce jotter.
    This'll have no further effect on the (in any case meaningless) VI polls, and the Conservatives will end up as at least the largest party at the next election. The only thing that'll change that will be an event that affects elderly incomes or inheritances - a hike in IHT, the abolition of the triple lock, or something that causes house prices to fall - and the Tories won't make those kinds of mistakes.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,749
    Carnyx said:

    Not that I’d want to enrage HFUYD on here and summon the tanks..

    Poll in @SundayTimesScot: “On the question of whether or not they support independence, 48 per cent said they were in favour while 47 per cent were opposed. Five per cent said they did not know.”

    ..Nicola Sturgeon has tweeted her delight at the poll. But I can’t see how Scotland isn’t stuck in a cycle of despair if that continues. Even if a vote is held and won by yes, the division won’t end.

    First Yes lead in quite a while - a mighty 1%. Surprised that she should "tweet her delight" at that TBH.
    Well, she’s taken a punt on it, so I’d imagine she wants to encourage the base as well

    Remember 2014. Quite an increase in Yes over the time of the campaign.
    True, but opinions have very much hardened since then on both sides. Doubt a campaign would make a lot of difference though it could make THE difference.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,813
    Leon said:

    I just filled up my car in Montenegro

    I felt exceedingly grown up. In my late 50s, doing basic things in an exotic country can still give me that childish thrill

    you and Rishi Sunak!
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839

    pigeon said:

    On topic: is this really a problem for No.10? There have now been so many scandals that you wonder if the public has reached saturation point and fails to notice any new ones.

    I reckon that an organised vice ring of Tory MPs could be found to have been running an operation hawking rent boys and cocaine from the House of Commons tea room (and splitting the profits 50:50 with the Russian Embassy,) and the Conservative Party still wouldn't drop any further in the polls.

    But IF instead the executive of 1922 Committee was revealed to be at center of massive Westminster dog-napping ring, sending innocent British bulldogs, etc. to be grisly (and gristly) fodder for the Persian Gulf dog-fighting pits, MIGHT just be a different story psephologically-speaking?
    It's true that this country loves its pets and despises its youth, but even so, I doubt it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,282
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Not that I’d want to enrage HFUYD on here and summon the tanks..

    Poll in @SundayTimesScot: “On the question of whether or not they support independence, 48 per cent said they were in favour while 47 per cent were opposed. Five per cent said they did not know.”

    ..Nicola Sturgeon has tweeted her delight at the poll. But I can’t see how Scotland isn’t stuck in a cycle of despair if that continues. Even if a vote is held and won by yes, the division won’t end.

    First Yes lead in quite a while - a mighty 1%. Surprised that she should "tweet her delight" at that TBH.
    Well, she’s taken a punt on it, so I’d imagine she wants to encourage the base as well

    Remember 2014. Quite an increase in Yes over the time of the campaign.
    But there isn’t going to be a campaign
    Which rather shows up your anti-democratic views. Never a good look, with a U-turn coming.
    U-turn? Talk me through it. If the polls turn against the unionists they are even LESS likely to grant a vote. They will have everyone to lose and nothing to gain by yielding

    However I really doubt the polls will shift. Anyone who has an opinion in Scotland is unlikely to change it in the next 18 months or so
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,433
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Many disastrous things are happening to the Tories. Not sure this is one

    So Boris knew this guy had a character flaw, but decided to give him the benefit of the doubt. Isn’t that the charitable, Christian thing to do?

    Perhaps Mr Pincher was given a warning before he took up the job? “No groping, please”. Which would be entirely fair

    Or are we going to ban anyone from having a job if they have “a reputation”?

    Certainly having a Finance Minister who rather liked very young chaps in their sports kit didn't ultimately damage the SNP very much.
    True - but a different context. This is all about Boris and is another nail in the coffin.

    For the older among us, this is all too reminiscent of poor ole "Back to Basics" John Major and the neverending series of sleaze stories that helped terminate his government.

    BJ will not be leading the Tories into the next GE. The hearts of the backbenchers are hardening.
    As standards dwindle even further under BoJo, still no sign as to how they’ll get rid of him

    1922 committee.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/29/ruthlessly-organised-tory-rebels-plot-1922-takeover-to-oust-boris-johnson

    Looks ominous for BJ.
    End days when a PB Tory uses the Graun as a source. But perhaps that is the point.
    Yep. BTW how many points do you think Boris is worth to the Yes numbers?
    Gut feeling is, not actually making so much of a difference now if he goes. He's contaminated so much.
    I think your gut is telling you what you want to hear.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Any advice for cheapish, decent food in Venice?

    Here for one night. Hot.

    Get as far away from St Mark’s Square as you can, head over to the Arsenale, or beyond. Seek out one of the two remaining local places for local people. Eat cicchetti (Venetian tapas)


    https://theculturetrip.com/europe/italy/articles/how-to-eat-cicchetti-like-a-venetian/


    Alternatively, brace yourself, summon the 2nd mortgage and go into one of the 5 star hotels, like the Gritti or the St Regis. The food will be good (as it should be) but omg the price. So, not cheapish, sorry
    Is it worth going in January or February?
    November and January are the best time to be there

    The melancholy drizzle on the empty canals. The high water flooding the hotels. The angry chefs denied their ingredients, shouting at the water taxi drivers

    It’s the only time the city returns to its inhabitants. Kinda
    I went in December.
    It was damp, foggy, and easy to get lost down dark impasses.

    I checked out the Carpaccios in a freezing Gallerie d’Accademia, then hopped from bacaro to bacaro, trailed a red-mantled dwarf with a stiletto.

    It’s actually a sinister place.
    It really is. That’s the genius of Don’t Look Now. Capturing that

    Venice was a deeply dangerous city for centuries. There is a street called “street of the assassins” because so many enemies of the regime got taken out down there

    It was also the whorehouse of the western world. That’s why Byron loved it. A mixture of Naples, Bangkok and pre-communist Havana, and all of it on that magnificent stage set

    It is impossible to get a sense of this when it is swamped by clueless day tripper tourists gawping, but you can still get a vibe in the depths of autumn and winter
    I kind of want to get at this and put the full stops in.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    edited July 2022

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Many disastrous things are happening to the Tories. Not sure this is one

    So Boris knew this guy had a character flaw, but decided to give him the benefit of the doubt. Isn’t that the charitable, Christian thing to do?

    Perhaps Mr Pincher was given a warning before he took up the job? “No groping, please”. Which would be entirely fair

    Or are we going to ban anyone from having a job if they have “a reputation”?

    Certainly having a Finance Minister who rather liked very young chaps in their sports kit didn't ultimately damage the SNP very much.
    True - but a different context. This is all about Boris and is another nail in the coffin.

    For the older among us, this is all too reminiscent of poor ole "Back to Basics" John Major and the neverending series of sleaze stories that helped terminate his government.

    BJ will not be leading the Tories into the next GE. The hearts of the backbenchers are hardening.
    As standards dwindle even further under BoJo, still no sign as to how they’ll get rid of him

    1922 committee.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/29/ruthlessly-organised-tory-rebels-plot-1922-takeover-to-oust-boris-johnson

    Looks ominous for BJ.
    End days when a PB Tory uses the Graun as a source. But perhaps that is the point.
    Yep. BTW how many points do you think Boris is worth to the Yes numbers?
    Gut feeling is, not actually making so much of a difference now if he goes. He's contaminated so much.
    I think your gut is telling you what you want to hear.
    I'm thinking of the elderly unionists I know. The problem is that the CP Is now so firmly set in Boris Johnson's image, which is irremediably that of a clown. Remember he's on -63% in Scotland. They won't vote yes - but others will, lower down the set in stone scale.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,282
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Any advice for cheapish, decent food in Venice?

    Here for one night. Hot.

    Get as far away from St Mark’s Square as you can, head over to the Arsenale, or beyond. Seek out one of the two remaining local places for local people. Eat cicchetti (Venetian tapas)


    https://theculturetrip.com/europe/italy/articles/how-to-eat-cicchetti-like-a-venetian/


    Alternatively, brace yourself, summon the 2nd mortgage and go into one of the 5 star hotels, like the Gritti or the St Regis. The food will be good (as it should be) but omg the price. So, not cheapish, sorry
    Is it worth going in January or February?
    November and January are the best time to be there

    The melancholy drizzle on the empty canals. The high water flooding the hotels. The angry chefs denied their ingredients, shouting at the water taxi drivers

    It’s the only time the city returns to its inhabitants. Kinda
    I went in December.
    It was damp, foggy, and easy to get lost down dark impasses.

    I checked out the Carpaccios in a freezing Gallerie d’Accademia, then hopped from bacaro to bacaro, trailed a red-mantled dwarf with a stiletto.

    It’s actually a sinister place.
    It really is. That’s the genius of Don’t Look Now. Capturing that

    Venice was a deeply dangerous city for centuries. There is a street called “street of the assassins” because so many enemies of the regime got taken out down there

    It was also the whorehouse of the western world. That’s why Byron loved it. A mixture of Naples, Bangkok and pre-communist Havana, and all of it on that magnificent stage set

    It is impossible to get a sense of this when it is swamped by clueless day tripper tourists gawping, but you can still get a vibe in the depths of autumn and winter
    I kind of want to get at this and put the full stops in.
    LEAVE MY PROSE ALONE
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Leon said:

    I just filled up my car in Montenegro

    I felt exceedingly grown up. In my late 50s, doing basic things in an exotic country can still give me that childish thrill

    I hope you don't drive and indulge in PB simultaneously.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Any advice for cheapish, decent food in Venice?

    Here for one night. Hot.

    Get as far away from St Mark’s Square as you can, head over to the Arsenale, or beyond. Seek out one of the two remaining local places for local people. Eat cicchetti (Venetian tapas)


    https://theculturetrip.com/europe/italy/articles/how-to-eat-cicchetti-like-a-venetian/


    Alternatively, brace yourself, summon the 2nd mortgage and go into one of the 5 star hotels, like the Gritti or the St Regis. The food will be good (as it should be) but omg the price. So, not cheapish, sorry
    Is it worth going in January or February?
    November and January are the best time to be there

    The melancholy drizzle on the empty canals. The high water flooding the hotels. The angry chefs denied their ingredients, shouting at the water taxi drivers

    It’s the only time the city returns to its inhabitants. Kinda
    I went in December.
    It was damp, foggy, and easy to get lost down dark impasses.

    I checked out the Carpaccios in a freezing Gallerie d’Accademia, then hopped from bacaro to bacaro, trailed a red-mantled dwarf with a stiletto.

    It’s actually a sinister place.
    It really is. That’s the genius of Don’t Look Now. Capturing that

    Venice was a deeply dangerous city for centuries. There is a street called “street of the assassins” because so many enemies of the regime got taken out down there

    It was also the whorehouse of the western world. That’s why Byron loved it. A mixture of Naples, Bangkok and pre-communist Havana, and all of it on that magnificent stage set

    It is impossible to get a sense of this when it is swamped by clueless day tripper tourists gawping, but you can still get a vibe in the depths of autumn and winter
    I kind of want to get at this and put the full stops in.
    LEAVE MY PROSE ALONE
    Yes my bad I know, soz
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    One of the men allegedly groped by Chris Pincher at the Carlton Club on Wednesday has spoken to The Sunday Times about his anger at how Number 10 dealt with the matter

    Exclusive by @cazjwheeler and me on the front page of tomorrow’s paper https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1543286206062108672
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    STORY

    Boris Johnson sent for ministerial jet to bring family home from Cornwall jaunt

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-sent-ministerial-jet-27382955
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Not that I’d want to enrage HFUYD on here and summon the tanks..

    Poll in @SundayTimesScot: “On the question of whether or not they support independence, 48 per cent said they were in favour while 47 per cent were opposed. Five per cent said they did not know.”

    ..Nicola Sturgeon has tweeted her delight at the poll. But I can’t see how Scotland isn’t stuck in a cycle of despair if that continues. Even if a vote is held and won by yes, the division won’t end.

    First Yes lead in quite a while - a mighty 1%. Surprised that she should "tweet her delight" at that TBH.
    Well, she’s taken a punt on it, so I’d imagine she wants to encourage the base as well

    Remember 2014. Quite an increase in Yes over the time of the campaign.
    But there isn’t going to be a campaign
    Which rather shows up your anti-democratic views. Never a good look, with a U-turn coming.
    U-turn? Talk me through it. If the polls turn against the unionists they are even LESS likely to grant a vote. They will have everyone to lose and nothing to gain by yielding

    However I really doubt the polls will shift. Anyone who has an opinion in Scotland is unlikely to change it in the next 18 months or so
    "has an opinion" is the critical bit. There are plenty of DKs still.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,433
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Many disastrous things are happening to the Tories. Not sure this is one

    So Boris knew this guy had a character flaw, but decided to give him the benefit of the doubt. Isn’t that the charitable, Christian thing to do?

    Perhaps Mr Pincher was given a warning before he took up the job? “No groping, please”. Which would be entirely fair

    Or are we going to ban anyone from having a job if they have “a reputation”?

    Certainly having a Finance Minister who rather liked very young chaps in their sports kit didn't ultimately damage the SNP very much.
    True - but a different context. This is all about Boris and is another nail in the coffin.

    For the older among us, this is all too reminiscent of poor ole "Back to Basics" John Major and the neverending series of sleaze stories that helped terminate his government.

    BJ will not be leading the Tories into the next GE. The hearts of the backbenchers are hardening.
    As standards dwindle even further under BoJo, still no sign as to how they’ll get rid of him

    1922 committee.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/29/ruthlessly-organised-tory-rebels-plot-1922-takeover-to-oust-boris-johnson

    Looks ominous for BJ.
    End days when a PB Tory uses the Graun as a source. But perhaps that is the point.
    Yep. BTW how many points do you think Boris is worth to the Yes numbers?
    Gut feeling is, not actually making so much of a difference now if he goes. He's contaminated so much.
    I think your gut is telling you what you want to hear.
    I'm thinking of the elderly unionists I know. The problem is that the CP Is now so firmly set in Boris Johnson's image, which is irremediably that of a clown. Remember he's on -63% in Scotland. They won't vote yes - but others will, lower down the set in stone scale.
    I respect your view, but it's obvious on this issue that neither of us are impartial prognosticators. I want Boris to take a lot of the Brexit and sleaze sting with him when his corpulent hide is finally booted out, you want the opposite.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,282
    Toms said:

    Leon said:

    I just filled up my car in Montenegro

    I felt exceedingly grown up. In my late 50s, doing basic things in an exotic country can still give me that childish thrill

    I hope you don't drive and indulge in PB simultaneously.
    Not in Montenegro. The roads are vicious even by the coast. Demands 100% concentration

    But on the short drive from my home in Camden through Hampstead to see/collect my older daughter in east Finchley? I’m afraid it has happened. I know the roads so well. And they are fairly docile
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,813
    edited July 2022
    Leon said:

    I just filled up my car in Montenegro

    I felt exceedingly grown up. In my late 50s, doing basic things in an exotic country can still give me that childish thrill

    There is a whole (slightly macho ) ritual to filling up a car - If you get it wrong it is considered shameful

    1) Forgetting the number of the pump when trying to pay the cashier (even glancing outside is pathetic really)
    2) Not instantly knowing which side of the car the pump needs to go (really c'mon!)
    3) Get extra points for casually opening up the bonnet but spending no longer dong the whole process
    4) It really is cancelling time if you dont drive to the furthest available pump and therefore semi block a further vacant pump
    5) You need to be in the right mood when paying - Matter of fact asian behind the counter ? Be businesslike - homely middle aged woman - tell or laugh at a saucy joke - young teen ? If male - just treat with a slight disdain and if female - use the bless her smile
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,282
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Not that I’d want to enrage HFUYD on here and summon the tanks..

    Poll in @SundayTimesScot: “On the question of whether or not they support independence, 48 per cent said they were in favour while 47 per cent were opposed. Five per cent said they did not know.”

    ..Nicola Sturgeon has tweeted her delight at the poll. But I can’t see how Scotland isn’t stuck in a cycle of despair if that continues. Even if a vote is held and won by yes, the division won’t end.

    First Yes lead in quite a while - a mighty 1%. Surprised that she should "tweet her delight" at that TBH.
    Well, she’s taken a punt on it, so I’d imagine she wants to encourage the base as well

    Remember 2014. Quite an increase in Yes over the time of the campaign.
    But there isn’t going to be a campaign
    Which rather shows up your anti-democratic views. Never a good look, with a U-turn coming.
    U-turn? Talk me through it. If the polls turn against the unionists they are even LESS likely to grant a vote. They will have everyone to lose and nothing to gain by yielding

    However I really doubt the polls will shift. Anyone who has an opinion in Scotland is unlikely to change it in the next 18 months or so
    "has an opinion" is the critical bit. There are plenty of DKs still.
    But where is this u-turn coming, and how, and why?
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,749
    pigeon said:

    On topic: is this really a problem for No.10? There have now been so many scandals that you wonder if the public has reached saturation point and fails to notice any new ones.

    I reckon that an organised vice ring of Tory MPs could be found to have been running an operation hawking rent boys and cocaine from the House of Commons tea room (and splitting the profits 50:50 with the Russian Embassy,) and the Conservative Party still wouldn't drop any further in the polls.

    "Is this really a problem for No 10?"

    If there are waverers among the Tory MPs, any that are in two minds, then these successive stories are gradually pushing them to the brink. The VONC showed a maj of backbenchers already want Boris out.

    The point is that there is a lack of grip. No way out. No likely deux et machina. Boris is Boris and he just keeps doubling down.

    The main thing keeping BJ in place is the lack of an obvious alternative since Rishi went down. But the plates are moving all the same.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Any advice for cheapish, decent food in Venice?

    Here for one night. Hot.

    Get as far away from St Mark’s Square as you can, head over to the Arsenale, or beyond. Seek out one of the two remaining local places for local people. Eat cicchetti (Venetian tapas)


    https://theculturetrip.com/europe/italy/articles/how-to-eat-cicchetti-like-a-venetian/


    Alternatively, brace yourself, summon the 2nd mortgage and go into one of the 5 star hotels, like the Gritti or the St Regis. The food will be good (as it should be) but omg the price. So, not cheapish, sorry
    We had our first (very indifferent) meal in a tourist trap on the Grand Canal. Then, my wife came up with the brilliant idea of finding out from the waiter, where he went to eat, and it was a wonderful little restaurant, down a tiny alley.
    I was there (some years ago) in early May and the sewage smell was quite spectacular. If telly had Smell-o-vision there would be a lot less bookings...

    (Note the extra full stops since there seems to be plenty of spare ones about due to non-usage....)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    edited July 2022

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Many disastrous things are happening to the Tories. Not sure this is one

    So Boris knew this guy had a character flaw, but decided to give him the benefit of the doubt. Isn’t that the charitable, Christian thing to do?

    Perhaps Mr Pincher was given a warning before he took up the job? “No groping, please”. Which would be entirely fair

    Or are we going to ban anyone from having a job if they have “a reputation”?

    Certainly having a Finance Minister who rather liked very young chaps in their sports kit didn't ultimately damage the SNP very much.
    True - but a different context. This is all about Boris and is another nail in the coffin.

    For the older among us, this is all too reminiscent of poor ole "Back to Basics" John Major and the neverending series of sleaze stories that helped terminate his government.

    BJ will not be leading the Tories into the next GE. The hearts of the backbenchers are hardening.
    As standards dwindle even further under BoJo, still no sign as to how they’ll get rid of him

    1922 committee.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/29/ruthlessly-organised-tory-rebels-plot-1922-takeover-to-oust-boris-johnson

    Looks ominous for BJ.
    End days when a PB Tory uses the Graun as a source. But perhaps that is the point.
    Yep. BTW how many points do you think Boris is worth to the Yes numbers?
    Gut feeling is, not actually making so much of a difference now if he goes. He's contaminated so much.
    I think your gut is telling you what you want to hear.
    I'm thinking of the elderly unionists I know. The problem is that the CP Is now so firmly set in Boris Johnson's image, which is irremediably that of a clown. Remember he's on -63% in Scotland. They won't vote yes - but others will, lower down the set in stone scale.
    I respect your view, but it's obvious on this issue that neither of us are impartial prognosticators. I want Boris to take a lot of the Brexit and sleaze sting with him when his corpulent hide is finally booted out, you want the opposite.
    FAir enough, but is that realistic? He's not going to be the complete scapegoat. OK, the truth is probably in the middle. But even so, that;s a lot of manure.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Not that I’d want to enrage HFUYD on here and summon the tanks..

    Poll in @SundayTimesScot: “On the question of whether or not they support independence, 48 per cent said they were in favour while 47 per cent were opposed. Five per cent said they did not know.”

    ..Nicola Sturgeon has tweeted her delight at the poll. But I can’t see how Scotland isn’t stuck in a cycle of despair if that continues. Even if a vote is held and won by yes, the division won’t end.

    First Yes lead in quite a while - a mighty 1%. Surprised that she should "tweet her delight" at that TBH.
    Well, she’s taken a punt on it, so I’d imagine she wants to encourage the base as well

    Remember 2014. Quite an increase in Yes over the time of the campaign.
    But there isn’t going to be a campaign
    Which rather shows up your anti-democratic views. Never a good look, with a U-turn coming.
    U-turn? Talk me through it. If the polls turn against the unionists they are even LESS likely to grant a vote. They will have everyone to lose and nothing to gain by yielding

    However I really doubt the polls will shift. Anyone who has an opinion in Scotland is unlikely to change it in the next 18 months or so
    "has an opinion" is the critical bit. There are plenty of DKs still.
    But where is this u-turn coming, and how, and why?
    The dilemma is that the later the unionists grant a vote the worse the result will be for them.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Looks like I decided to stop watching Wimbledon today just before the most interesting match started.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Many disastrous things are happening to the Tories. Not sure this is one

    So Boris knew this guy had a character flaw, but decided to give him the benefit of the doubt. Isn’t that the charitable, Christian thing to do?

    Perhaps Mr Pincher was given a warning before he took up the job? “No groping, please”. Which would be entirely fair

    Or are we going to ban anyone from having a job if they have “a reputation”?

    Certainly having a Finance Minister who rather liked very young chaps in their sports kit didn't ultimately damage the SNP very much.
    True - but a different context. This is all about Boris and is another nail in the coffin.

    For the older among us, this is all too reminiscent of poor ole "Back to Basics" John Major and the neverending series of sleaze stories that helped terminate his government.

    BJ will not be leading the Tories into the next GE. The hearts of the backbenchers are hardening.
    As standards dwindle even further under BoJo, still no sign as to how they’ll get rid of him

    1922 committee.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/29/ruthlessly-organised-tory-rebels-plot-1922-takeover-to-oust-boris-johnson

    Looks ominous for BJ.
    End days when a PB Tory uses the Graun as a source. But perhaps that is the point.
    Yep. BTW how many points do you think Boris is worth to the Yes numbers?
    Gut feeling is, not actually making so much of a difference now if he goes. He's contaminated so much.
    I think your gut is telling you what you want to hear.
    I'm thinking of the elderly unionists I know. The problem is that the CP Is now so firmly set in Boris Johnson's image, which is irremediably that of a clown. Remember he's on -63% in Scotland. They won't vote yes - but others will, lower down the set in stone scale.
    I respect your view, but it's obvious on this issue that neither of us are impartial prognosticators. I want Boris to take a lot of the Brexit and sleaze sting with him when his corpulent hide is finally booted out, you want the opposite.
    FAir enough, but is that realistic? He's not going to be the complete scapegoat. OK, the truth is probably in the middle. But even so, that;s a lot of manure.
    Boris needs booting, the Tories need dumping, and all right-minded people need to work for a liberal-minded government who wish to unify and look to the future.

    That doesn’t include the SNP who are inherently engaged on a wrecker’s project.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,961

    Scotland is split down the middle, and things have barely moved (and maybe haven’t moved at all) since 2014.

    Yet it swallows up the entire conversation inside Scotland. The country would be a lot better off it was focused on how to build wealth and improve public services.

    Unsolicited advice is the best kind.
    Sorry, is there a rule that says that Brits can’t comment on British issues?
    None whatsoever.
    However there seems to be an unspoken one that they turn into whiny, little snowflakes when the pompous irrelevance of their pronouncements is pointed out.
    You’ve failed to persuade your own countrymen, and you’re defending an increasingly tired regime.

    What have you gained from your several years promoting scotnattery?
    Enough to know that the views of a Kiwi Unionist living in NYC via England don’t amount to a hill of beans on this matter.
    Other matters too possibly, but let’s move on.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    On topic: is this really a problem for No.10? There have now been so many scandals that you wonder if the public has reached saturation point and fails to notice any new ones.

    I reckon that an organised vice ring of Tory MPs could be found to have been running an operation hawking rent boys and cocaine from the House of Commons tea room (and splitting the profits 50:50 with the Russian Embassy,) and the Conservative Party still wouldn't drop any further in the polls.

    Sleaze is always baked in, I remember a pollster telling me what sticks in the mind of the public is hypocrisy and behaviour that is likely to see you signing the nonce jotter.
    This'll have no further effect on the (in any case meaningless) VI polls, and the Conservatives will end up as at least the largest party at the next election. The only thing that'll change that will be an event that affects elderly incomes or inheritances - a hike in IHT, the abolition of the triple lock, or something that causes house prices to fall - and the Tories won't make those kinds of mistakes.
    Don't know why you're so sure the Cons will be the largest party. The Lab lead feels quite robust to me.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Any advice for cheapish, decent food in Venice?

    Here for one night. Hot.

    Get as far away from St Mark’s Square as you can, head over to the Arsenale, or beyond. Seek out one of the two remaining local places for local people. Eat cicchetti (Venetian tapas)


    https://theculturetrip.com/europe/italy/articles/how-to-eat-cicchetti-like-a-venetian/


    Alternatively, brace yourself, summon the 2nd mortgage and go into one of the 5 star hotels, like the Gritti or the St Regis. The food will be good (as it should be) but omg the price. So, not cheapish, sorry
    Is it worth going in January or February?
    November and January are the best time to be there

    The melancholy drizzle on the empty canals. The high water flooding the hotels. The angry chefs denied their ingredients, shouting at the water taxi drivers

    It’s the only time the city returns to its inhabitants. Kinda
    I went in December.
    It was damp, foggy, and easy to get lost down dark impasses.

    I checked out the Carpaccios in a freezing Gallerie d’Accademia, then hopped from bacaro to bacaro, trailed a red-mantled dwarf with a stiletto.

    It’s actually a sinister place.
    It really is. That’s the genius of Don’t Look Now. Capturing that

    Venice was a deeply dangerous city for centuries. There is a street called “street of the assassins” because so many enemies of the regime got taken out down there

    It was also the whorehouse of the western world. That’s why Byron loved it. A mixture of Naples, Bangkok and pre-communist Havana, and all of it on that magnificent stage set

    It is impossible to get a sense of this when it is swamped by clueless day tripper tourists gawping, but you can still get a vibe in the depths of autumn and winter
    I kind of want to get at this and put the full stops in.
    LEAVE MY PROSE ALONE
    Prose?

    Given the lack of sentences and the
    random line breaks, I assumed
    it was a poem
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,896
    Scott_xP said:
    You have to wonder why Keir Starmer has never asked the Prime Minister simply to name the 40 hospitals.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    edited July 2022
    Scott_xP said:
    This is rank stupidity. Alongside the "levelling up" bollocks.
    If folk see their hospital is crap, and hear 40 new ones are being built, then the obvious conclusion is they don't give a monkey's about their area.
    It's like the growing feeling in the South that all the money's being spent on feckless Northerners.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,749
    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Not that I’d want to enrage HFUYD on here and summon the tanks..

    Poll in @SundayTimesScot: “On the question of whether or not they support independence, 48 per cent said they were in favour while 47 per cent were opposed. Five per cent said they did not know.”

    ..Nicola Sturgeon has tweeted her delight at the poll. But I can’t see how Scotland isn’t stuck in a cycle of despair if that continues. Even if a vote is held and won by yes, the division won’t end.

    First Yes lead in quite a while - a mighty 1%. Surprised that she should "tweet her delight" at that TBH.
    Well, she’s taken a punt on it, so I’d imagine she wants to encourage the base as well

    Remember 2014. Quite an increase in Yes over the time of the campaign.
    But there isn’t going to be a campaign
    Which rather shows up your anti-democratic views. Never a good look, with a U-turn coming.
    U-turn? Talk me through it. If the polls turn against the unionists they are even LESS likely to grant a vote. They will have everyone to lose and nothing to gain by yielding

    However I really doubt the polls will shift. Anyone who has an opinion in Scotland is unlikely to change it in the next 18 months or so
    "has an opinion" is the critical bit. There are plenty of DKs still.
    But where is this u-turn coming, and how, and why?
    No Tory PM will grant a referendum. And Starmer is going to considerable lengths to emphasise his commitment to ruling one out and refusing any deal with SNP. Not happening.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    Scott_xP said:
    You have to wonder why Keir Starmer has never asked the Prime Minister simply to name the 40 hospitals.
    Saving that one for the GE campaign.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Scotland is split down the middle, and things have barely moved (and maybe haven’t moved at all) since 2014.

    Yet it swallows up the entire conversation inside Scotland. The country would be a lot better off it was focused on how to build wealth and improve public services.

    Unsolicited advice is the best kind.
    Sorry, is there a rule that says that Brits can’t comment on British issues?
    None whatsoever.
    However there seems to be an unspoken one that they turn into whiny, little snowflakes when the pompous irrelevance of their pronouncements is pointed out.
    You’ve failed to persuade your own countrymen, and you’re defending an increasingly tired regime.

    What have you gained from your several years promoting scotnattery?
    Enough to know that the views of a Kiwi Unionist living in NYC via England don’t amount to a hill of beans on this matter.
    Other matters too possibly, but let’s move on.
    So you basically won’t debate and won’t engage. I’m not sure what that says about scotnattery, but nothing good.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    pigeon said:

    On topic: is this really a problem for No.10? There have now been so many scandals that you wonder if the public has reached saturation point and fails to notice any new ones.

    I reckon that an organised vice ring of Tory MPs could be found to have been running an operation hawking rent boys and cocaine from the House of Commons tea room (and splitting the profits 50:50 with the Russian Embassy,) and the Conservative Party still wouldn't drop any further in the polls.

    The difference now is not whether the Tories lose, but how badly they lose. It will take a lot of effort to reach Canadian levels of wipe-out
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821

    Scotland is split down the middle, and things have barely moved (and maybe haven’t moved at all) since 2014.

    Yet it swallows up the entire conversation inside Scotland. The country would be a lot better off it was focused on how to build wealth and improve public services.

    Have the Scottish Government still slashed Scotrail services?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,961

    Scotland is split down the middle, and things have barely moved (and maybe haven’t moved at all) since 2014.

    Yet it swallows up the entire conversation inside Scotland. The country would be a lot better off it was focused on how to build wealth and improve public services.

    Unsolicited advice is the best kind.
    Sorry, is there a rule that says that Brits can’t comment on British issues?
    None whatsoever.
    However there seems to be an unspoken one that they turn into whiny, little snowflakes when the pompous irrelevance of their pronouncements is pointed out.
    You’ve failed to persuade your own countrymen, and you’re defending an increasingly tired regime.

    What have you gained from your several years promoting scotnattery?
    Enough to know that the views of a Kiwi Unionist living in NYC via England don’t amount to a hill of beans on this matter.
    Other matters too possibly, but let’s move on.
    So you basically won’t debate and won’t engage. I’m not sure what that says about scotnattery, but nothing good.
    Say something interesting and original and I’ll think about it.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,433
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Not that I’d want to enrage HFUYD on here and summon the tanks..

    Poll in @SundayTimesScot: “On the question of whether or not they support independence, 48 per cent said they were in favour while 47 per cent were opposed. Five per cent said they did not know.”

    ..Nicola Sturgeon has tweeted her delight at the poll. But I can’t see how Scotland isn’t stuck in a cycle of despair if that continues. Even if a vote is held and won by yes, the division won’t end.

    First Yes lead in quite a while - a mighty 1%. Surprised that she should "tweet her delight" at that TBH.
    Well, she’s taken a punt on it, so I’d imagine she wants to encourage the base as well

    Remember 2014. Quite an increase in Yes over the time of the campaign.
    But there isn’t going to be a campaign
    Which rather shows up your anti-democratic views. Never a good look, with a U-turn coming.
    U-turn? Talk me through it. If the polls turn against the unionists they are even LESS likely to grant a vote. They will have everyone to lose and nothing to gain by yielding

    However I really doubt the polls will shift. Anyone who has an opinion in Scotland is unlikely to change it in the next 18 months or so
    "has an opinion" is the critical bit. There are plenty of DKs still.
    But where is this u-turn coming, and how, and why?
    The dilemma is that the later the unionists grant a vote the worse the result will be for them.
    It is vanishingly unlikely that the UK Government will allow the SNP to set timing, game the question, etc. of any second Indyref.

    If and when there is a second Indyref it will be on the UK Government's terms - it's not their first time at this particular Rodeo. A vote will certainly be allowed; several if the Scottish Government decides to hold them. But they won't be binding.

  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,813
    Scott_xP said:

    One of the men allegedly groped by Chris Pincher at the Carlton Club on Wednesday has spoken to The Sunday Times about his anger at how Number 10 dealt with the matter

    Exclusive by @cazjwheeler and me on the front page of tomorrow’s paper https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1543286206062108672

    What exactly does groped mean anyway?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821

    Scott_xP said:

    One of the men allegedly groped by Chris Pincher at the Carlton Club on Wednesday has spoken to The Sunday Times about his anger at how Number 10 dealt with the matter

    Exclusive by @cazjwheeler and me on the front page of tomorrow’s paper https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1543286206062108672

    What exactly does groped mean anyway?
    Land of Grope and Glory Hole?
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,749
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Not that I’d want to enrage HFUYD on here and summon the tanks..

    Poll in @SundayTimesScot: “On the question of whether or not they support independence, 48 per cent said they were in favour while 47 per cent were opposed. Five per cent said they did not know.”

    ..Nicola Sturgeon has tweeted her delight at the poll. But I can’t see how Scotland isn’t stuck in a cycle of despair if that continues. Even if a vote is held and won by yes, the division won’t end.

    First Yes lead in quite a while - a mighty 1%. Surprised that she should "tweet her delight" at that TBH.
    Well, she’s taken a punt on it, so I’d imagine she wants to encourage the base as well

    Remember 2014. Quite an increase in Yes over the time of the campaign.
    But there isn’t going to be a campaign
    Which rather shows up your anti-democratic views. Never a good look, with a U-turn coming.
    U-turn? Talk me through it. If the polls turn against the unionists they are even LESS likely to grant a vote. They will have everyone to lose and nothing to gain by yielding

    However I really doubt the polls will shift. Anyone who has an opinion in Scotland is unlikely to change it in the next 18 months or so
    "has an opinion" is the critical bit. There are plenty of DKs still.
    But where is this u-turn coming, and how, and why?
    The dilemma is that the later the unionists grant a vote the worse the result will be for them.
    Dilemma? It's even-stevens with Boris and Nicola in place which is hardly optimal for the Union, is it?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    Scott_xP said:

    One of the men allegedly groped by Chris Pincher at the Carlton Club on Wednesday has spoken to The Sunday Times about his anger at how Number 10 dealt with the matter

    Exclusive by @cazjwheeler and me on the front page of tomorrow’s paper https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1543286206062108672

    What exactly does groped mean anyway?
    Er... touched in an unwelcome and sexual way would be my guess. (I should add IANAE.)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    pigeon said:

    On topic: is this really a problem for No.10? There have now been so many scandals that you wonder if the public has reached saturation point and fails to notice any new ones.

    I reckon that an organised vice ring of Tory MPs could be found to have been running an operation hawking rent boys and cocaine from the House of Commons tea room (and splitting the profits 50:50 with the Russian Embassy,) and the Conservative Party still wouldn't drop any further in the polls.

    The difference now is not whether the Tories lose, but how badly they lose. It will take a lot of effort to reach Canadian levels of wipe-out
    We can live in hope.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Any advice for cheapish, decent food in Venice?

    Here for one night. Hot.

    Get as far away from St Mark’s Square as you can, head over to the Arsenale, or beyond. Seek out one of the two remaining local places for local people. Eat cicchetti (Venetian tapas)


    https://theculturetrip.com/europe/italy/articles/how-to-eat-cicchetti-like-a-venetian/


    Alternatively, brace yourself, summon the 2nd mortgage and go into one of the 5 star hotels, like the Gritti or the St Regis. The food will be good (as it should be) but omg the price. So, not cheapish, sorry
    Is it worth going in January or February?
    November and January are the best time to be there

    The melancholy drizzle on the empty canals. The high water flooding the hotels. The angry chefs denied their ingredients, shouting at the water taxi drivers

    It’s the only time the city returns to its inhabitants. Kinda
    I went in December.
    It was damp, foggy, and easy to get lost down dark impasses.

    I checked out the Carpaccios in a freezing Gallerie d’Accademia, then hopped from bacaro to bacaro, trailed a red-mantled dwarf with a stiletto.

    It’s actually a sinister place.
    It really is. That’s the genius of Don’t Look Now. Capturing that

    Venice was a deeply dangerous city for centuries. There is a street called “street of the assassins” because so many enemies of the regime got taken out down there

    It was also the whorehouse of the western world. That’s why Byron loved it. A mixture of Naples, Bangkok and pre-communist Havana, and all of it on that magnificent stage set

    It is impossible to get a sense of this when it is swamped by clueless day tripper tourists gawping, but you can still get a vibe in the depths of autumn and winter
    I kind of want to get at this and put the full stops in.
    LEAVE MY PROSE ALONE
    Prose?

    Given the lack of sentences and the
    random line breaks, I assumed
    it was a poem
    Terrible. Take a hike, you.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,282
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Not that I’d want to enrage HFUYD on here and summon the tanks..

    Poll in @SundayTimesScot: “On the question of whether or not they support independence, 48 per cent said they were in favour while 47 per cent were opposed. Five per cent said they did not know.”

    ..Nicola Sturgeon has tweeted her delight at the poll. But I can’t see how Scotland isn’t stuck in a cycle of despair if that continues. Even if a vote is held and won by yes, the division won’t end.

    First Yes lead in quite a while - a mighty 1%. Surprised that she should "tweet her delight" at that TBH.
    Well, she’s taken a punt on it, so I’d imagine she wants to encourage the base as well

    Remember 2014. Quite an increase in Yes over the time of the campaign.
    But there isn’t going to be a campaign
    Which rather shows up your anti-democratic views. Never a good look, with a U-turn coming.
    U-turn? Talk me through it. If the polls turn against the unionists they are even LESS likely to grant a vote. They will have everyone to lose and nothing to gain by yielding

    However I really doubt the polls will shift. Anyone who has an opinion in Scotland is unlikely to change it in the next 18 months or so
    "has an opinion" is the critical bit. There are plenty of DKs still.
    But where is this u-turn coming, and how, and why?
    The dilemma is that the later the unionists grant a vote the worse the result will be for them.
    That may be so, but you haven’t answered the question. You predicted a u-turn. How and when and why?
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,749

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Not that I’d want to enrage HFUYD on here and summon the tanks..

    Poll in @SundayTimesScot: “On the question of whether or not they support independence, 48 per cent said they were in favour while 47 per cent were opposed. Five per cent said they did not know.”

    ..Nicola Sturgeon has tweeted her delight at the poll. But I can’t see how Scotland isn’t stuck in a cycle of despair if that continues. Even if a vote is held and won by yes, the division won’t end.

    First Yes lead in quite a while - a mighty 1%. Surprised that she should "tweet her delight" at that TBH.
    Well, she’s taken a punt on it, so I’d imagine she wants to encourage the base as well

    Remember 2014. Quite an increase in Yes over the time of the campaign.
    But there isn’t going to be a campaign
    Which rather shows up your anti-democratic views. Never a good look, with a U-turn coming.
    U-turn? Talk me through it. If the polls turn against the unionists they are even LESS likely to grant a vote. They will have everyone to lose and nothing to gain by yielding

    However I really doubt the polls will shift. Anyone who has an opinion in Scotland is unlikely to change it in the next 18 months or so
    "has an opinion" is the critical bit. There are plenty of DKs still.
    But where is this u-turn coming, and how, and why?
    The dilemma is that the later the unionists grant a vote the worse the result will be for them.
    It is vanishingly unlikely that the UK Government will allow the SNP to set timing, game the question, etc. of any second Indyref.

    If and when there is a second Indyref it will be on the UK Government's terms - it's not their first time at this particular Rodeo. A vote will certainly be allowed; several if the Scottish Government decides to hold them. But they won't be binding.

    It certainly won't be Yes vs No either. Perhaps Remain or Leave?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Not that I’d want to enrage HFUYD on here and summon the tanks..

    Poll in @SundayTimesScot: “On the question of whether or not they support independence, 48 per cent said they were in favour while 47 per cent were opposed. Five per cent said they did not know.”

    ..Nicola Sturgeon has tweeted her delight at the poll. But I can’t see how Scotland isn’t stuck in a cycle of despair if that continues. Even if a vote is held and won by yes, the division won’t end.

    First Yes lead in quite a while - a mighty 1%. Surprised that she should "tweet her delight" at that TBH.
    Well, she’s taken a punt on it, so I’d imagine she wants to encourage the base as well

    Remember 2014. Quite an increase in Yes over the time of the campaign.
    But there isn’t going to be a campaign
    Which rather shows up your anti-democratic views. Never a good look, with a U-turn coming.
    U-turn? Talk me through it. If the polls turn against the unionists they are even LESS likely to grant a vote. They will have everyone to lose and nothing to gain by yielding

    However I really doubt the polls will shift. Anyone who has an opinion in Scotland is unlikely to change it in the next 18 months or so
    "has an opinion" is the critical bit. There are plenty of DKs still.
    But where is this u-turn coming, and how, and why?
    The dilemma is that the later the unionists grant a vote the worse the result will be for them.
    It is vanishingly unlikely that the UK Government will allow the SNP to set timing, game the question, etc. of any second Indyref.

    If and when there is a second Indyref it will be on the UK Government's terms - it's not their first time at this particular Rodeo. A vote will certainly be allowed; several if the Scottish Government decides to hold them. But they won't be binding.

    Didn't happen the first time round. Mr Cameron and the EC were very much involved. There was this thing called the "Edinburgh Agreement".
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,433

    Scott_xP said:
    You have to wonder why Keir Starmer has never asked the Prime Minister simply to name the 40 hospitals.
    All those hospitals could have quite easily been achieved (imo) during Covid. When it became obvious that local treatment options a were better bet than gathering everyone in vast Nightingales, any number of local hospitals/nursing homes could have been reopened as local infectious disease centres to relieve other hospitals.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,813

    Scott_xP said:

    One of the men allegedly groped by Chris Pincher at the Carlton Club on Wednesday has spoken to The Sunday Times about his anger at how Number 10 dealt with the matter

    Exclusive by @cazjwheeler and me on the front page of tomorrow’s paper https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1543286206062108672

    What exactly does groped mean anyway?
    Er... touched in an unwelcome and sexual way would be my guess. (I should add IANAE.)
    well does it ? touched in an unwelcome way can be of the "you're my best mate " drunk sort of groping - a bit of a clumsy hug - might be unwelcome but not sexual or it can be sexual assault of course - not sure what is alleged in this case?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Not that I’d want to enrage HFUYD on here and summon the tanks..

    Poll in @SundayTimesScot: “On the question of whether or not they support independence, 48 per cent said they were in favour while 47 per cent were opposed. Five per cent said they did not know.”

    ..Nicola Sturgeon has tweeted her delight at the poll. But I can’t see how Scotland isn’t stuck in a cycle of despair if that continues. Even if a vote is held and won by yes, the division won’t end.

    First Yes lead in quite a while - a mighty 1%. Surprised that she should "tweet her delight" at that TBH.
    Well, she’s taken a punt on it, so I’d imagine she wants to encourage the base as well

    Remember 2014. Quite an increase in Yes over the time of the campaign.
    But there isn’t going to be a campaign
    Which rather shows up your anti-democratic views. Never a good look, with a U-turn coming.
    U-turn? Talk me through it. If the polls turn against the unionists they are even LESS likely to grant a vote. They will have everyone to lose and nothing to gain by yielding

    However I really doubt the polls will shift. Anyone who has an opinion in Scotland is unlikely to change it in the next 18 months or so
    "has an opinion" is the critical bit. There are plenty of DKs still.
    But where is this u-turn coming, and how, and why?
    The dilemma is that the later the unionists grant a vote the worse the result will be for them.
    That may be so, but you haven’t answered the question. You predicted a u-turn. How and when and why?
    I'm, not party to the intestinal workings of the Conservative Party. But it will happen sooner or later, the moment SKS or his successor realises the alternativer is another GE.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Leon said:

    Many disastrous things are happening to the Tories. Not sure this is one

    So Boris knew this guy had a character flaw, but decided to give him the benefit of the doubt. Isn’t that the charitable, Christian thing to do?

    Perhaps Mr Pincher was given a warning before he took up the job? “No groping, please”. Which would be entirely fair

    Or are we going to ban anyone from having a job if they have “a reputation”?

    As I mentioned earlier, it turns out he's The Critic's wine/spirits columnist.

    https://thecritic.co.uk/author/christopher-pincher/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Boris just loves turning the heat on “enemies” within and without.

    He’s a bully, alongside his various other defects.

    Keep up the heat on the lying arse.

    Boris Johnson faces investigation into claims over 40 ‘new’ hospitals
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/02/boris-johnson-faces-investigation-into-claims-over-40-new-hospitals
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Leon said:

    I just filled up my car in Montenegro

    I felt exceedingly grown up. In my late 50s, doing basic things in an exotic country can still give me that childish thrill

    There is a whole (slightly macho ) ritual to filling up a car - If you get it wrong it is considered shameful

    1) Forgetting the number of the pump when trying to pay the cashier (even glancing outside is pathetic really)
    2) Not instantly knowing which side of the car the pump needs to go (really c'mon!)
    3) Get extra points for casually opening up the bonnet but spending no longer dong the whole process
    4) It really is cancelling time if you dont drive to the furthest available pump and therefore semi block a further vacant pump
    5) You need to be in the right mood when paying - Matter of fact asian behind the counter ? Be businesslike - homely middle aged woman - tell or laugh at a saucy joke - young teen ? If male - just treat with a slight disdain and if female - use the bless her smile
    You forgot

    > Smoking a cigarette dangling from the corner of you mouth, lounging against the side of your car in best James-Dean-style, high-test liquid spurting into your tank (like sheer relief from BJ after a hard day at the office).
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821

    Scott_xP said:

    One of the men allegedly groped by Chris Pincher at the Carlton Club on Wednesday has spoken to The Sunday Times about his anger at how Number 10 dealt with the matter

    Exclusive by @cazjwheeler and me on the front page of tomorrow’s paper https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1543286206062108672

    What exactly does groped mean anyway?
    Tube campaign:

    image
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839
    edited July 2022
    kinabalu said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    On topic: is this really a problem for No.10? There have now been so many scandals that you wonder if the public has reached saturation point and fails to notice any new ones.

    I reckon that an organised vice ring of Tory MPs could be found to have been running an operation hawking rent boys and cocaine from the House of Commons tea room (and splitting the profits 50:50 with the Russian Embassy,) and the Conservative Party still wouldn't drop any further in the polls.

    Sleaze is always baked in, I remember a pollster telling me what sticks in the mind of the public is hypocrisy and behaviour that is likely to see you signing the nonce jotter.
    This'll have no further effect on the (in any case meaningless) VI polls, and the Conservatives will end up as at least the largest party at the next election. The only thing that'll change that will be an event that affects elderly incomes or inheritances - a hike in IHT, the abolition of the triple lock, or something that causes house prices to fall - and the Tories won't make those kinds of mistakes.
    Don't know why you're so sure the Cons will be the largest party. The Lab lead feels quite robust to me.
    An educated guess. They aren't going to slip below about 33% of the vote (John Major managed 31% in 1997, and the population has aged since then.) Labour isn't nearly as strong as it was in the 92-97 Parliament, Starmer doesn't look like Prime Minister in waiting or excite the same following as Blair did, Scotland certainly won't swing back to Labour in a big way, the Lib Dems are still rebuilding, I'm assuming some swingback to the Government, the current boundaries favour the Tories (and if they leave it until 2024 the revised ones are a bit better,) and in any case the age differentials in terms of party support and likelihood to vote are so great that you have to fancy the chances of the Grey Party in any general election.

    My better half reckons that the Tories will actually win the next election with a reduced majority; I'm not at all certain of that, but I do think they're likely to end up with more seats than Labour for the reasons given above.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    Messy

    So SNP fail to hit Sturgeon's 50% target then
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,282
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Not that I’d want to enrage HFUYD on here and summon the tanks..

    Poll in @SundayTimesScot: “On the question of whether or not they support independence, 48 per cent said they were in favour while 47 per cent were opposed. Five per cent said they did not know.”

    ..Nicola Sturgeon has tweeted her delight at the poll. But I can’t see how Scotland isn’t stuck in a cycle of despair if that continues. Even if a vote is held and won by yes, the division won’t end.

    First Yes lead in quite a while - a mighty 1%. Surprised that she should "tweet her delight" at that TBH.
    Well, she’s taken a punt on it, so I’d imagine she wants to encourage the base as well

    Remember 2014. Quite an increase in Yes over the time of the campaign.
    But there isn’t going to be a campaign
    Which rather shows up your anti-democratic views. Never a good look, with a U-turn coming.
    U-turn? Talk me through it. If the polls turn against the unionists they are even LESS likely to grant a vote. They will have everyone to lose and nothing to gain by yielding

    However I really doubt the polls will shift. Anyone who has an opinion in Scotland is unlikely to change it in the next 18 months or so
    "has an opinion" is the critical bit. There are plenty of DKs still.
    But where is this u-turn coming, and how, and why?
    The dilemma is that the later the unionists grant a vote the worse the result will be for them.
    That may be so, but you haven’t answered the question. You predicted a u-turn. How and when and why?
    I'm, not party to the intestinal workings of the Conservative Party. But it will happen sooner or later, the moment SKS or his successor realises the alternativer is another GE.
    You what? So it will be Labour that…. U-turns? How? How and when and why?

    This is PB. You can’t get away with this infantile level of speculation. Shape up. Explain
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,433

    Leon said:

    I just filled up my car in Montenegro

    I felt exceedingly grown up. In my late 50s, doing basic things in an exotic country can still give me that childish thrill

    There is a whole (slightly macho ) ritual to filling up a car - If you get it wrong it is considered shameful

    1) Forgetting the number of the pump when trying to pay the cashier (even glancing outside is pathetic really)
    2) Not instantly knowing which side of the car the pump needs to go (really c'mon!)
    3) Get extra points for casually opening up the bonnet but spending no longer dong the whole process
    4) It really is cancelling time if you dont drive to the furthest available pump and therefore semi block a further vacant pump
    5) You need to be in the right mood when paying - Matter of fact asian behind the counter ? Be businesslike - homely middle aged woman - tell or laugh at a saucy joke - young teen ? If male - just treat with a slight disdain and if female - use the bless her smile
    You forgot

    > Smoking a cigarette dangling from the corner of you mouth, lounging against the side of your car in best James-Dean-style, high-test liquid spurting into your tank (like sheer relief from BJ after a hard day at the office).
    Also, trying to get exactly to £50.00. More like £100.00 these days. And doing a little jiggle with the spout at the end to get the extra drips.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    Prince Charles, Sleazus Defensor

    Prince Charles honoured tycoon Lord Brownlow who bailed out his eco-village

    Heir to the throne ignored aide’s advice against close ties with Tory peer


    he Prince of Wales gave an honour to a controversial Tory peer who spent £1.7 million bailing out his failed eco-village in a string of secretive deals being investigated by the charity watchdog.

    Prince Charles presented Lord Brownlow with the award during a ceremony at Buckingham Palace after accepting millions of pounds in donations from him.

    His flagship charity also opened up Dumfries House, his 18th-century country estate in Scotland, for Brownlow’s 50th birthday — a black-tie event involving fireworks, bagpipes and a performance by a celebrity magician — and awarded the businessman’s company a £1.2 million construction contract....

    ...Charles became close with the peer, whose fortune has been estimated at £271 million by The Sunday Times Rich List in 2020, after ignoring the advice of one of his most senior courtiers. The palace insider was concerned Brownlow, 58, was using Charles to burnish his reputation, felt he had “myriad conflicts of interest” and believed his judgment was “wayward”. They shared their views with the prince.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/prince-charles-honoured-tycoon-lord-brownlow-who-bailed-out-his-eco-village-z2l9cx2mk

    No wonder Lord Brownlow had no money left for Boris's treehouse. Is the Times perhaps using Prince Charles to get at the Prime Minister?
    More gunning for the sleazy, entitled adulterer*, The Sunday Times are making the same point I've raised many times

    Why won’t parliament speak up on Charles?

    The Commons ban on royal debate is not going to work much longer


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/why-wont-parliament-speak-up-on-charles-kdb8flhlp

    *Prince Charles, not Boris Johnson.
    Parliament by convention does not question the actions of the sovereign or their heirs and the Monarch in turn by convention does not refuse to sign bills passed by Parliament
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839

    Scott_xP said:

    One of the men allegedly groped by Chris Pincher at the Carlton Club on Wednesday has spoken to The Sunday Times about his anger at how Number 10 dealt with the matter

    Exclusive by @cazjwheeler and me on the front page of tomorrow’s paper https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1543286206062108672

    What exactly does groped mean anyway?
    In this particular case you don't need to have access behind the Times paywall - the Twitter thread referenced contains the relevant information. Pincher is alleged to have strayed rather a long way into Gropeland.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    ST long read:

    - 3 new allegations involving 2 Tory MPs & activist from 2017, 2018 & 2019, which Pincher denies
    - Guto Harri likened him to David Kelly, weapons expert who killed himself over 'sexed up' dossier
    - Johnson used nickname “Pincher by nature”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tories-rallied-round-pincher-by-name-in-spite-of-warnings-99r5gj5lm
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Not that I’d want to enrage HFUYD on here and summon the tanks..

    Poll in @SundayTimesScot: “On the question of whether or not they support independence, 48 per cent said they were in favour while 47 per cent were opposed. Five per cent said they did not know.”

    ..Nicola Sturgeon has tweeted her delight at the poll. But I can’t see how Scotland isn’t stuck in a cycle of despair if that continues. Even if a vote is held and won by yes, the division won’t end.

    First Yes lead in quite a while - a mighty 1%. Surprised that she should "tweet her delight" at that TBH.
    Well, she’s taken a punt on it, so I’d imagine she wants to encourage the base as well

    Remember 2014. Quite an increase in Yes over the time of the campaign.
    But there isn’t going to be a campaign
    Which rather shows up your anti-democratic views. Never a good look, with a U-turn coming.
    U-turn? Talk me through it. If the polls turn against the unionists they are even LESS likely to grant a vote. They will have everyone to lose and nothing to gain by yielding

    However I really doubt the polls will shift. Anyone who has an opinion in Scotland is unlikely to change it in the next 18 months or so
    "has an opinion" is the critical bit. There are plenty of DKs still.
    But where is this u-turn coming, and how, and why?
    The dilemma is that the later the unionists grant a vote the worse the result will be for them.
    Allow a vote now (and tonight's poll is clear most Scots do not want an indyref2 next year) then even if Unionists win it again, the SNP would demand indyref3 within 5 years. After all they had no respect for 2014 being a once in a generation vote
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    Scott_xP said:

    One of the men allegedly groped by Chris Pincher at the Carlton Club on Wednesday has spoken to The Sunday Times about his anger at how Number 10 dealt with the matter

    Exclusive by @cazjwheeler and me on the front page of tomorrow’s paper https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1543286206062108672

    What exactly does groped mean anyway?
    Er... touched in an unwelcome and sexual way would be my guess. (I should add IANAE.)
    well does it ? touched in an unwelcome way can be of the "you're my best mate " drunk sort of groping - a bit of a clumsy hug - might be unwelcome but not sexual or it can be sexual assault of course - not sure what is alleged in this case?
    Personally, I think it has to be both unwelcome and sexual. And yes, groping is sexual assault.

    But what's your point? Are you trying to suggest this Pincher's actions weren't too bad? That seems unlikely given the reaction of the victims, the government, and Pincher himself.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,823
    pigeon said:

    kinabalu said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    On topic: is this really a problem for No.10? There have now been so many scandals that you wonder if the public has reached saturation point and fails to notice any new ones.

    I reckon that an organised vice ring of Tory MPs could be found to have been running an operation hawking rent boys and cocaine from the House of Commons tea room (and splitting the profits 50:50 with the Russian Embassy,) and the Conservative Party still wouldn't drop any further in the polls.

    Sleaze is always baked in, I remember a pollster telling me what sticks in the mind of the public is hypocrisy and behaviour that is likely to see you signing the nonce jotter.
    This'll have no further effect on the (in any case meaningless) VI polls, and the Conservatives will end up as at least the largest party at the next election. The only thing that'll change that will be an event that affects elderly incomes or inheritances - a hike in IHT, the abolition of the triple lock, or something that causes house prices to fall - and the Tories won't make those kinds of mistakes.
    Don't know why you're so sure the Cons will be the largest party. The Lab lead feels quite robust to me.
    An educated guess. They aren't going to slip below about 33% of the vote (John Major managed 31% in 1997, and the population has aged since then.) Labour isn't nearly as strong as it was in the 92-97 Parliament, Starmer doesn't look like Prime Minister in waiting or excite the same following as Blair did, Scotland certainly won't swing back to Labour in a big way, the Lib Dems are still rebuilding, I'm assuming some swingback to the Government, the current boundaries favour the Tories (and if they leave it until 2024 the revised ones are a bit better,) and in any case the age differentials in terms of party support and likelihood to vote are so great that you have to fancy the chances of the Grey Party in any general election.

    My better half reckons that the Tories will actually win the next election with a reduced majority; I'm not at all certain of that, but I do think they're likely to end up with more seats than Labour for the reasons given above.
    Have to get rid of Boris though. And soon enough that his replacement restores some sort of reputation to the party as well.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,961
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Not that I’d want to enrage HFUYD on here and summon the tanks..

    Poll in @SundayTimesScot: “On the question of whether or not they support independence, 48 per cent said they were in favour while 47 per cent were opposed. Five per cent said they did not know.”

    ..Nicola Sturgeon has tweeted her delight at the poll. But I can’t see how Scotland isn’t stuck in a cycle of despair if that continues. Even if a vote is held and won by yes, the division won’t end.

    First Yes lead in quite a while - a mighty 1%. Surprised that she should "tweet her delight" at that TBH.
    Well, she’s taken a punt on it, so I’d imagine she wants to encourage the base as well

    Remember 2014. Quite an increase in Yes over the time of the campaign.
    But there isn’t going to be a campaign
    Which rather shows up your anti-democratic views. Never a good look, with a U-turn coming.
    U-turn? Talk me through it. If the polls turn against the unionists they are even LESS likely to grant a vote. They will have everyone to lose and nothing to gain by yielding

    However I really doubt the polls will shift. Anyone who has an opinion in Scotland is unlikely to change it in the next 18 months or so
    "has an opinion" is the critical bit. There are plenty of DKs still.
    But where is this u-turn coming, and how, and why?
    The dilemma is that the later the unionists grant a vote the worse the result will be for them.
    It is vanishingly unlikely that the UK Government will allow the SNP to set timing, game the question, etc. of any second Indyref.

    If and when there is a second Indyref it will be on the UK Government's terms - it's not their first time at this particular Rodeo. A vote will certainly be allowed; several if the Scottish Government decides to hold them. But they won't be binding.

    Didn't happen the first time round. Mr Cameron and the EC were very much involved. There was this thing called the "Edinburgh Agreement".
    There’s hardly enough room for all the Unionist thumbs being pressed on the scales of an Indy ref that they insist isn’t going to happen.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386

    Scott_xP said:
    You have to wonder why Keir Starmer has never asked the Prime Minister simply to name the 40 hospitals.
    All those hospitals could have quite easily been achieved (imo) during Covid. When it became obvious that local treatment options a were better bet than gathering everyone in vast Nightingales, any number of local hospitals/nursing homes could have been reopened as local infectious disease centres to relieve other hospitals.
    Who would have staffed them?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,282
    edited July 2022

    Scott_xP said:

    One of the men allegedly groped by Chris Pincher at the Carlton Club on Wednesday has spoken to The Sunday Times about his anger at how Number 10 dealt with the matter

    Exclusive by @cazjwheeler and me on the front page of tomorrow’s paper https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1543286206062108672

    What exactly does groped mean anyway?
    Tube campaign:

    image
    Deliciously, that poster campaign uses the classic London Underground font (a beautiful font) largely developed by Eric Gill

    Ahem

    I hope there is a follow-up poster which says

    “FUCKING THE FAMILY DOG, AND ALL YOUR DAUGHTERS

    Is not allowed on the Bakerloo Line”
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Scott_xP said:

    One of the men allegedly groped by Chris Pincher at the Carlton Club on Wednesday has spoken to The Sunday Times about his anger at how Number 10 dealt with the matter

    Exclusive by @cazjwheeler and me on the front page of tomorrow’s paper https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1543286206062108672

    What exactly does groped mean anyway?
    Tube campaign:

    image
    Payroll-vote Tories taking the Tube???

    Perhaps these warnings should be placed in the Carlton Club MP WC?
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,813

    Scott_xP said:

    One of the men allegedly groped by Chris Pincher at the Carlton Club on Wednesday has spoken to The Sunday Times about his anger at how Number 10 dealt with the matter

    Exclusive by @cazjwheeler and me on the front page of tomorrow’s paper https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1543286206062108672

    What exactly does groped mean anyway?
    Er... touched in an unwelcome and sexual way would be my guess. (I should add IANAE.)
    well does it ? touched in an unwelcome way can be of the "you're my best mate " drunk sort of groping - a bit of a clumsy hug - might be unwelcome but not sexual or it can be sexual assault of course - not sure what is alleged in this case?
    Personally, I think it has to be both unwelcome and sexual. And yes, groping is sexual assault.

    But what's your point? Are you trying to suggest this Pincher's actions weren't too bad? That seems unlikely given the reaction of the victims, the government, and Pincher himself.
    No not at all - just trying to establish what "groping " is . I doubt the law bans groping as such so always get a bit annoyed when people are accused of things that are not actually against the law specifically - best if accused over the media to be accused of something that is specific
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,961
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Not that I’d want to enrage HFUYD on here and summon the tanks..

    Poll in @SundayTimesScot: “On the question of whether or not they support independence, 48 per cent said they were in favour while 47 per cent were opposed. Five per cent said they did not know.”

    ..Nicola Sturgeon has tweeted her delight at the poll. But I can’t see how Scotland isn’t stuck in a cycle of despair if that continues. Even if a vote is held and won by yes, the division won’t end.

    First Yes lead in quite a while - a mighty 1%. Surprised that she should "tweet her delight" at that TBH.
    Well, she’s taken a punt on it, so I’d imagine she wants to encourage the base as well

    Remember 2014. Quite an increase in Yes over the time of the campaign.
    But there isn’t going to be a campaign
    Which rather shows up your anti-democratic views. Never a good look, with a U-turn coming.
    U-turn? Talk me through it. If the polls turn against the unionists they are even LESS likely to grant a vote. They will have everyone to lose and nothing to gain by yielding

    However I really doubt the polls will shift. Anyone who has an opinion in Scotland is unlikely to change it in the next 18 months or so
    "has an opinion" is the critical bit. There are plenty of DKs still.
    But where is this u-turn coming, and how, and why?
    The dilemma is that the later the unionists grant a vote the worse the result will be for them.
    Allow a vote now (and tonight's poll is clear most Scots do not want an indyref2 next year) then even if Unionists win it again, the SNP would demand indyref3 within 5 years. After all they had no respect for 2014 being a once in a generation vote
    I’ve been meaning to ask, what was the polling on the UK population wanting a referendum on the EU pre June 2016?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,433

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Not that I’d want to enrage HFUYD on here and summon the tanks..

    Poll in @SundayTimesScot: “On the question of whether or not they support independence, 48 per cent said they were in favour while 47 per cent were opposed. Five per cent said they did not know.”

    ..Nicola Sturgeon has tweeted her delight at the poll. But I can’t see how Scotland isn’t stuck in a cycle of despair if that continues. Even if a vote is held and won by yes, the division won’t end.

    First Yes lead in quite a while - a mighty 1%. Surprised that she should "tweet her delight" at that TBH.
    Well, she’s taken a punt on it, so I’d imagine she wants to encourage the base as well

    Remember 2014. Quite an increase in Yes over the time of the campaign.
    But there isn’t going to be a campaign
    Which rather shows up your anti-democratic views. Never a good look, with a U-turn coming.
    U-turn? Talk me through it. If the polls turn against the unionists they are even LESS likely to grant a vote. They will have everyone to lose and nothing to gain by yielding

    However I really doubt the polls will shift. Anyone who has an opinion in Scotland is unlikely to change it in the next 18 months or so
    "has an opinion" is the critical bit. There are plenty of DKs still.
    But where is this u-turn coming, and how, and why?
    The dilemma is that the later the unionists grant a vote the worse the result will be for them.
    It is vanishingly unlikely that the UK Government will allow the SNP to set timing, game the question, etc. of any second Indyref.

    If and when there is a second Indyref it will be on the UK Government's terms - it's not their first time at this particular Rodeo. A vote will certainly be allowed; several if the Scottish Government decides to hold them. But they won't be binding.

    Didn't happen the first time round. Mr Cameron and the EC were very much involved. There was this thing called the "Edinburgh Agreement".
    There’s hardly enough room for all the Unionist thumbs being pressed on the scales of an Indy ref that they insist isn’t going to happen.
    It's precisely the weight of Mr. Salmond's substantial thumbs on the scales last time that will make the UK Government wary of allowing the SNP free rein in these areas if and when another official referendum is to be held.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Not that I’d want to enrage HFUYD on here and summon the tanks..

    Poll in @SundayTimesScot: “On the question of whether or not they support independence, 48 per cent said they were in favour while 47 per cent were opposed. Five per cent said they did not know.”

    ..Nicola Sturgeon has tweeted her delight at the poll. But I can’t see how Scotland isn’t stuck in a cycle of despair if that continues. Even if a vote is held and won by yes, the division won’t end.

    First Yes lead in quite a while - a mighty 1%. Surprised that she should "tweet her delight" at that TBH.
    Well, she’s taken a punt on it, so I’d imagine she wants to encourage the base as well

    Remember 2014. Quite an increase in Yes over the time of the campaign.
    But there isn’t going to be a campaign
    Which rather shows up your anti-democratic views. Never a good look, with a U-turn coming.
    U-turn? Talk me through it. If the polls turn against the unionists they are even LESS likely to grant a vote. They will have everyone to lose and nothing to gain by yielding

    However I really doubt the polls will shift. Anyone who has an opinion in Scotland is unlikely to change it in the next 18 months or so
    "has an opinion" is the critical bit. There are plenty of DKs still.
    But where is this u-turn coming, and how, and why?
    The dilemma is that the later the unionists grant a vote the worse the result will be for them.
    It is vanishingly unlikely that the UK Government will allow the SNP to set timing, game the question, etc. of any second Indyref.

    If and when there is a second Indyref it will be on the UK Government's terms - it's not their first time at this particular Rodeo. A vote will certainly be allowed; several if the Scottish Government decides to hold them. But they won't be binding.

    Didn't happen the first time round. Mr Cameron and the EC were very much involved. There was this thing called the "Edinburgh Agreement".
    There’s hardly enough room for all the Unionist thumbs being pressed on the scales of an Indy ref that they insist isn’t going to happen.
    It's precisely the weight of Mr. Salmond's substantial thumbs on the scales last time that will make the UK Government wary of allowing the SNP free rein in these areas if and when another official referendum is to be held.
    You mean, after an agreement with the entire UKG and EC involved?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    One of the men allegedly groped by Chris Pincher at the Carlton Club on Wednesday has spoken to The Sunday Times about his anger at how Number 10 dealt with the matter

    Exclusive by @cazjwheeler and me on the front page of tomorrow’s paper https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1543286206062108672

    What exactly does groped mean anyway?
    Tube campaign:

    image
    Deliciously, that poster campaign uses the classic London Underground font (a beautiful font) largely developed by Eric Gill

    Ahem

    I hope there is a follow-up poster which says

    “FUCKING THE FAMILY DOG, AND ALL YOUR DAUGHTERS

    Is not allowed on the Bakerloo Line”
    . .
    image
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    pigeon said:

    kinabalu said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    On topic: is this really a problem for No.10? There have now been so many scandals that you wonder if the public has reached saturation point and fails to notice any new ones.

    I reckon that an organised vice ring of Tory MPs could be found to have been running an operation hawking rent boys and cocaine from the House of Commons tea room (and splitting the profits 50:50 with the Russian Embassy,) and the Conservative Party still wouldn't drop any further in the polls.

    Sleaze is always baked in, I remember a pollster telling me what sticks in the mind of the public is hypocrisy and behaviour that is likely to see you signing the nonce jotter.
    This'll have no further effect on the (in any case meaningless) VI polls, and the Conservatives will end up as at least the largest party at the next election. The only thing that'll change that will be an event that affects elderly incomes or inheritances - a hike in IHT, the abolition of the triple lock, or something that causes house prices to fall - and the Tories won't make those kinds of mistakes.
    Don't know why you're so sure the Cons will be the largest party. The Lab lead feels quite robust to me.
    An educated guess. They aren't going to slip below about 33% of the vote (John Major managed 31% in 1997, and the population has aged since then.) Labour isn't nearly as strong as it was in the 92-97 Parliament, Starmer doesn't look like Prime Minister in waiting or excite the same following as Blair did, Scotland certainly won't swing back to Labour in a big way, the Lib Dems are still rebuilding, I'm assuming some swingback to the Government, the current boundaries favour the Tories (and if they leave it until 2024 the revised ones are a bit better,) and in any case the age differentials in terms of party support and likelihood to vote are so great that you have to fancy the chances of the Grey Party in any general election.

    My better half reckons that the Tories will actually win the next election with a reduced majority; I'm not at all certain of that, but I do think they're likely to end up with more seats than Labour for the reasons given above.
    Regardless of the sleaze, the lying, the hypocrisy, the drift, the economic mismanagement, and the general ineptitude, all of which would be enough to condemn the Tories to defeat in the next GE imo... regardless of all that, the CoL crisis and the fact that the average working age person will be worse off in real terms than when the Tories came to power in 2010...

    That is why the Tories are doomed, and deservedly so.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Not that I’d want to enrage HFUYD on here and summon the tanks..

    Poll in @SundayTimesScot: “On the question of whether or not they support independence, 48 per cent said they were in favour while 47 per cent were opposed. Five per cent said they did not know.”

    ..Nicola Sturgeon has tweeted her delight at the poll. But I can’t see how Scotland isn’t stuck in a cycle of despair if that continues. Even if a vote is held and won by yes, the division won’t end.

    First Yes lead in quite a while - a mighty 1%. Surprised that she should "tweet her delight" at that TBH.
    Well, she’s taken a punt on it, so I’d imagine she wants to encourage the base as well

    Remember 2014. Quite an increase in Yes over the time of the campaign.
    But there isn’t going to be a campaign
    Which rather shows up your anti-democratic views. Never a good look, with a U-turn coming.
    U-turn? Talk me through it. If the polls turn against the unionists they are even LESS likely to grant a vote. They will have everyone to lose and nothing to gain by yielding

    However I really doubt the polls will shift. Anyone who has an opinion in Scotland is unlikely to change it in the next 18 months or so
    "has an opinion" is the critical bit. There are plenty of DKs still.
    But where is this u-turn coming, and how, and why?
    The dilemma is that the later the unionists grant a vote the worse the result will be for them.
    Allow a vote now (and tonight's poll is clear most Scots do not want an indyref2 next year) then even if Unionists win it again, the SNP would demand indyref3 within 5 years. After all they had no respect for 2014 being a once in a generation vote
    Not surprising re the generation. Because it exists only in your imagination. You made it up - it's not in any paperwork.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Not that I’d want to enrage HFUYD on here and summon the tanks..

    Poll in @SundayTimesScot: “On the question of whether or not they support independence, 48 per cent said they were in favour while 47 per cent were opposed. Five per cent said they did not know.”

    ..Nicola Sturgeon has tweeted her delight at the poll. But I can’t see how Scotland isn’t stuck in a cycle of despair if that continues. Even if a vote is held and won by yes, the division won’t end.

    First Yes lead in quite a while - a mighty 1%. Surprised that she should "tweet her delight" at that TBH.
    Well, she’s taken a punt on it, so I’d imagine she wants to encourage the base as well

    Remember 2014. Quite an increase in Yes over the time of the campaign.
    But there isn’t going to be a campaign
    Which rather shows up your anti-democratic views. Never a good look, with a U-turn coming.
    U-turn? Talk me through it. If the polls turn against the unionists they are even LESS likely to grant a vote. They will have everyone to lose and nothing to gain by yielding

    However I really doubt the polls will shift. Anyone who has an opinion in Scotland is unlikely to change it in the next 18 months or so
    "has an opinion" is the critical bit. There are plenty of DKs still.
    But where is this u-turn coming, and how, and why?
    The dilemma is that the later the unionists grant a vote the worse the result will be for them.
    Allow a vote now (and tonight's poll is clear most Scots do not want an indyref2 next year) then even if Unionists win it again, the SNP would demand indyref3 within 5 years. After all they had no respect for 2014 being a once in a generation vote
    I’ve been meaning to ask, what was the polling on the UK population wanting a referendum on the EU pre June 2016?
    That referendum was over 40 years after the first EEC referendum in 1975 ie a genuine generation and only happened as the Tories won an outright majority in 2015 on a manifesto promise of an EU referendum
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    Scott_xP said:

    One of the men allegedly groped by Chris Pincher at the Carlton Club on Wednesday has spoken to The Sunday Times about his anger at how Number 10 dealt with the matter

    Exclusive by @cazjwheeler and me on the front page of tomorrow’s paper https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1543286206062108672

    What exactly does groped mean anyway?
    Er... touched in an unwelcome and sexual way would be my guess. (I should add IANAE.)
    well does it ? touched in an unwelcome way can be of the "you're my best mate " drunk sort of groping - a bit of a clumsy hug - might be unwelcome but not sexual or it can be sexual assault of course - not sure what is alleged in this case?
    Personally, I think it has to be both unwelcome and sexual. And yes, groping is sexual assault.

    But what's your point? Are you trying to suggest this Pincher's actions weren't too bad? That seems unlikely given the reaction of the victims, the government, and Pincher himself.
    No not at all - just trying to establish what "groping " is . I doubt the law bans groping as such so always get a bit annoyed when people are accused of things that are not actually against the law specifically - best if accused over the media to be accused of something that is specific
    Touching someone without their consent can be legally construed as an assault. The precise definition of "groping" is irrelevant, a sexual assault took place and I am wondering why PC Plod has not turned up yet.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,433
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:
    You have to wonder why Keir Starmer has never asked the Prime Minister simply to name the 40 hospitals.
    All those hospitals could have quite easily been achieved (imo) during Covid. When it became obvious that local treatment options a were better bet than gathering everyone in vast Nightingales, any number of local hospitals/nursing homes could have been reopened as local infectious disease centres to relieve other hospitals.
    Who would have staffed them?
    Mainly medical professionals seconded from other hospitals, supplemented I suppose by recruitment of people, perhaps some of those on furlough.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    Scott_xP said:

    One of the men allegedly groped by Chris Pincher at the Carlton Club on Wednesday has spoken to The Sunday Times about his anger at how Number 10 dealt with the matter

    Exclusive by @cazjwheeler and me on the front page of tomorrow’s paper https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1543286206062108672

    What exactly does groped mean anyway?
    Er... touched in an unwelcome and sexual way would be my guess. (I should add IANAE.)
    well does it ? touched in an unwelcome way can be of the "you're my best mate " drunk sort of groping - a bit of a clumsy hug - might be unwelcome but not sexual or it can be sexual assault of course - not sure what is alleged in this case?
    Personally, I think it has to be both unwelcome and sexual. And yes, groping is sexual assault.

    But what's your point? Are you trying to suggest this Pincher's actions weren't too bad? That seems unlikely given the reaction of the victims, the government, and Pincher himself.
    No not at all - just trying to establish what "groping " is . I doubt the law bans groping as such so always get a bit annoyed when people are accused of things that are not actually against the law specifically - best if accused over the media to be accused of something that is specific
    Sexual assault includes a mere touching, so the law almost certainly bans groping
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Interesting that news of Boris Johnson's latest reported indiscretion has NOT yet penetrated American media.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    One of the men allegedly groped by Chris Pincher at the Carlton Club on Wednesday has spoken to The Sunday Times about his anger at how Number 10 dealt with the matter

    Exclusive by @cazjwheeler and me on the front page of tomorrow’s paper https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1543286206062108672

    What exactly does groped mean anyway?
    Tube campaign:

    image
    Deliciously, that poster campaign uses the classic London Underground font (a beautiful font) largely developed by Eric Gill

    Ahem

    I hope there is a follow-up poster which says

    “FUCKING THE FAMILY DOG, AND ALL YOUR DAUGHTERS

    Is not allowed on the Bakerloo Line”
    . .
    image
    So Dilyn isn't allowed to lick his own bollocks on the Tube? Not speciesist, admittedly, as neither you nor I are permitted to do so.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,813

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    One of the men allegedly groped by Chris Pincher at the Carlton Club on Wednesday has spoken to The Sunday Times about his anger at how Number 10 dealt with the matter

    Exclusive by @cazjwheeler and me on the front page of tomorrow’s paper https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1543286206062108672

    What exactly does groped mean anyway?
    Tube campaign:

    image
    Deliciously, that poster campaign uses the classic London Underground font (a beautiful font) largely developed by Eric Gill

    Ahem

    I hope there is a follow-up poster which says

    “FUCKING THE FAMILY DOG, AND ALL YOUR DAUGHTERS

    Is not allowed on the Bakerloo Line”
    . .
    image
    Is there a poster to say chatting is not tolerated ? Seems to be the observed law on the miserable tube in my experience especially now everyone has those anti social headphones
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    One of the men allegedly groped by Chris Pincher at the Carlton Club on Wednesday has spoken to The Sunday Times about his anger at how Number 10 dealt with the matter

    Exclusive by @cazjwheeler and me on the front page of tomorrow’s paper https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1543286206062108672

    What exactly does groped mean anyway?
    Tube campaign:

    image
    Deliciously, that poster campaign uses the classic London Underground font (a beautiful font) largely developed by Eric Gill

    Ahem

    I hope there is a follow-up poster which says

    “FUCKING THE FAMILY DOG, AND ALL YOUR DAUGHTERS

    Is not allowed on the Bakerloo Line”
    . .
    image
    If you are a politician, exposing your genitals may invite ridicule and will be tolerated...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,282
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Not that I’d want to enrage HFUYD on here and summon the tanks..

    Poll in @SundayTimesScot: “On the question of whether or not they support independence, 48 per cent said they were in favour while 47 per cent were opposed. Five per cent said they did not know.”

    ..Nicola Sturgeon has tweeted her delight at the poll. But I can’t see how Scotland isn’t stuck in a cycle of despair if that continues. Even if a vote is held and won by yes, the division won’t end.

    First Yes lead in quite a while - a mighty 1%. Surprised that she should "tweet her delight" at that TBH.
    Well, she’s taken a punt on it, so I’d imagine she wants to encourage the base as well

    Remember 2014. Quite an increase in Yes over the time of the campaign.
    But there isn’t going to be a campaign
    Which rather shows up your anti-democratic views. Never a good look, with a U-turn coming.
    U-turn? Talk me through it. If the polls turn against the unionists they are even LESS likely to grant a vote. They will have everyone to lose and nothing to gain by yielding

    However I really doubt the polls will shift. Anyone who has an opinion in Scotland is unlikely to change it in the next 18 months or so
    "has an opinion" is the critical bit. There are plenty of DKs still.
    But where is this u-turn coming, and how, and why?
    The dilemma is that the later the unionists grant a vote the worse the result will be for them.
    It is vanishingly unlikely that the UK Government will allow the SNP to set timing, game the question, etc. of any second Indyref.

    If and when there is a second Indyref it will be on the UK Government's terms - it's not their first time at this particular Rodeo. A vote will certainly be allowed; several if the Scottish Government decides to hold them. But they won't be binding.

    Didn't happen the first time round. Mr Cameron and the EC were very much involved. There was this thing called the "Edinburgh Agreement".
    There’s hardly enough room for all the Unionist thumbs being pressed on the scales of an Indy ref that they insist isn’t going to happen.
    It's precisely the weight of Mr. Salmond's substantial thumbs on the scales last time that will make the UK Government wary of allowing the SNP free rein in these areas if and when another official referendum is to be held.
    You mean, after an agreement with the entire UKG and EC involved?
    Because the idiot Etonian “I’d be rather good as prime minister” David Cameron was convinced he would win indyref easily, and ended up crying on live television, and then, amazingly, repeated the complacent arrogant process with the Brexit vote, and this time he lost, and had to resign, and is now a laughable figure known only for that terrible defeat

    You don’t think UK politicians have watched all this, and learnt? Of course they have, especially Boris, who is nothing if not cunning and selfish. No way he will grant a vote, what’s in it for him? He doesn’t have to, and he doesn’t understand the concept of moral leverage, so there ya go

    Starmer will be the same, only he will pretend to be more moral
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited July 2022

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    One of the men allegedly groped by Chris Pincher at the Carlton Club on Wednesday has spoken to The Sunday Times about his anger at how Number 10 dealt with the matter

    Exclusive by @cazjwheeler and me on the front page of tomorrow’s paper https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1543286206062108672

    What exactly does groped mean anyway?
    Tube campaign:

    image
    Deliciously, that poster campaign uses the classic London Underground font (a beautiful font) largely developed by Eric Gill

    Ahem

    I hope there is a follow-up poster which says

    “FUCKING THE FAMILY DOG, AND ALL YOUR DAUGHTERS

    Is not allowed on the Bakerloo Line”
    . .
    image
    In hot weather a lot of women choose to wear semi-revealing clothing. I hope they don't get into trouble with this campaign.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    I am old enough (followed the news in 2012) to remember when GOP Senate candidate who was favored to win *in Missouri*, lost mainly because he said that in cases of “legitimate rape” women usually wouldn’t get pregnant.

    That now barely merits notice as a GOP candidate view.

    https://twitter.com/JamesFallows/status/1543302806492237824
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,823
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Not that I’d want to enrage HFUYD on here and summon the tanks..

    Poll in @SundayTimesScot: “On the question of whether or not they support independence, 48 per cent said they were in favour while 47 per cent were opposed. Five per cent said they did not know.”

    ..Nicola Sturgeon has tweeted her delight at the poll. But I can’t see how Scotland isn’t stuck in a cycle of despair if that continues. Even if a vote is held and won by yes, the division won’t end.

    First Yes lead in quite a while - a mighty 1%. Surprised that she should "tweet her delight" at that TBH.
    Well, she’s taken a punt on it, so I’d imagine she wants to encourage the base as well

    Remember 2014. Quite an increase in Yes over the time of the campaign.
    But there isn’t going to be a campaign
    Which rather shows up your anti-democratic views. Never a good look, with a U-turn coming.
    U-turn? Talk me through it. If the polls turn against the unionists they are even LESS likely to grant a vote. They will have everyone to lose and nothing to gain by yielding

    However I really doubt the polls will shift. Anyone who has an opinion in Scotland is unlikely to change it in the next 18 months or so
    "has an opinion" is the critical bit. There are plenty of DKs still.
    But where is this u-turn coming, and how, and why?
    The dilemma is that the later the unionists grant a vote the worse the result will be for them.
    Allow a vote now (and tonight's poll is clear most Scots do not want an indyref2 next year) then even if Unionists win it again, the SNP would demand indyref3 within 5 years. After all they had no respect for 2014 being a once in a generation vote
    Not surprising re the generation. Because it exists only in your imagination. You made it up - it's not in any paperwork.
    The Scottish Government’s independence White Paper (Scotland’s Future, 26 November 2013): “The debate we are engaged in as a nation is about the future of all of us lucky enough to live in this diverse and vibrant country. It is a rare and precious moment in the history of Scotland - a once in a generation opportunity to chart a better way.”
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    One of the men allegedly groped by Chris Pincher at the Carlton Club on Wednesday has spoken to The Sunday Times about his anger at how Number 10 dealt with the matter

    Exclusive by @cazjwheeler and me on the front page of tomorrow’s paper https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1543286206062108672

    What exactly does groped mean anyway?
    Tube campaign:

    image
    Deliciously, that poster campaign uses the classic London Underground font (a beautiful font) largely developed by Eric Gill

    Ahem

    I hope there is a follow-up poster which says

    “FUCKING THE FAMILY DOG, AND ALL YOUR DAUGHTERS

    Is not allowed on the Bakerloo Line”
    Yes well, we're back to the age-old issue of great art being sometimes produced by utter arseholes. Wagner and Picasso, say 'Hi'.

    Eric Gill produced some sublime fonts, and beautiful sculptures, which I love. But he was an evil perverted bastard.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,961
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Not that I’d want to enrage HFUYD on here and summon the tanks..

    Poll in @SundayTimesScot: “On the question of whether or not they support independence, 48 per cent said they were in favour while 47 per cent were opposed. Five per cent said they did not know.”

    ..Nicola Sturgeon has tweeted her delight at the poll. But I can’t see how Scotland isn’t stuck in a cycle of despair if that continues. Even if a vote is held and won by yes, the division won’t end.

    First Yes lead in quite a while - a mighty 1%. Surprised that she should "tweet her delight" at that TBH.
    Well, she’s taken a punt on it, so I’d imagine she wants to encourage the base as well

    Remember 2014. Quite an increase in Yes over the time of the campaign.
    But there isn’t going to be a campaign
    Which rather shows up your anti-democratic views. Never a good look, with a U-turn coming.
    U-turn? Talk me through it. If the polls turn against the unionists they are even LESS likely to grant a vote. They will have everyone to lose and nothing to gain by yielding

    However I really doubt the polls will shift. Anyone who has an opinion in Scotland is unlikely to change it in the next 18 months or so
    "has an opinion" is the critical bit. There are plenty of DKs still.
    But where is this u-turn coming, and how, and why?
    The dilemma is that the later the unionists grant a vote the worse the result will be for them.
    Allow a vote now (and tonight's poll is clear most Scots do not want an indyref2 next year) then even if Unionists win it again, the SNP would demand indyref3 within 5 years. After all they had no respect for 2014 being a once in a generation vote
    I’ve been meaning to ask, what was the polling on the UK population wanting a referendum on the EU pre June 2016?
    That referendum was over 40 years after the first EEC referendum in 1975 ie a genuine generation and only happened as the Tories won an outright majority in 2015 on a manifesto promise of an EU referendum
    Lol.
    Are you saying the Tories had a mandate on…checks Wiki…37% of the vote?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Not that I’d want to enrage HFUYD on here and summon the tanks..

    Poll in @SundayTimesScot: “On the question of whether or not they support independence, 48 per cent said they were in favour while 47 per cent were opposed. Five per cent said they did not know.”

    ..Nicola Sturgeon has tweeted her delight at the poll. But I can’t see how Scotland isn’t stuck in a cycle of despair if that continues. Even if a vote is held and won by yes, the division won’t end.

    First Yes lead in quite a while - a mighty 1%. Surprised that she should "tweet her delight" at that TBH.
    Well, she’s taken a punt on it, so I’d imagine she wants to encourage the base as well

    Remember 2014. Quite an increase in Yes over the time of the campaign.
    But there isn’t going to be a campaign
    Which rather shows up your anti-democratic views. Never a good look, with a U-turn coming.
    U-turn? Talk me through it. If the polls turn against the unionists they are even LESS likely to grant a vote. They will have everyone to lose and nothing to gain by yielding

    However I really doubt the polls will shift. Anyone who has an opinion in Scotland is unlikely to change it in the next 18 months or so
    "has an opinion" is the critical bit. There are plenty of DKs still.
    But where is this u-turn coming, and how, and why?
    The dilemma is that the later the unionists grant a vote the worse the result will be for them.
    Allow a vote now (and tonight's poll is clear most Scots do not want an indyref2 next year) then even if Unionists win it again, the SNP would demand indyref3 within 5 years. After all they had no respect for 2014 being a once in a generation vote
    Not surprising re the generation. Because it exists only in your imagination. You made it up - it's not in any paperwork.
    The Scottish Government’s independence White Paper (Scotland’s Future, 26 November 2013): “The debate we are engaged in as a nation is about the future of all of us lucky enough to live in this diverse and vibrant country. It is a rare and precious moment in the history of Scotland - a once in a generation opportunity to chart a better way.”
    You know as well as I do, but obviously not HYUFD, that thay was a *retrospective* comment since 1978. Still less a formal agreement. It ill behoves you to try and support him.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,813
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    One of the men allegedly groped by Chris Pincher at the Carlton Club on Wednesday has spoken to The Sunday Times about his anger at how Number 10 dealt with the matter

    Exclusive by @cazjwheeler and me on the front page of tomorrow’s paper https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1543286206062108672

    What exactly does groped mean anyway?
    Tube campaign:

    image
    Deliciously, that poster campaign uses the classic London Underground font (a beautiful font) largely developed by Eric Gill

    Ahem

    I hope there is a follow-up poster which says

    “FUCKING THE FAMILY DOG, AND ALL YOUR DAUGHTERS

    Is not allowed on the Bakerloo Line”
    . .
    image
    In hot weather a lot of women choose to wear semi-revealing clothing. I hope they don't get into trouble with this campaign.
    yes in a way that poster is something you woudl expect more in Iran - Do we really need this puritanical advertising?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Rubbish editing from the BBC at Wimbledon. Everyone wanted to see whether the players were going to shake hands with each other, so just before it was about to happen or not happen they cut away to the audience applauding.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,632
    edited July 2022
    Five years on, the reputation of Pincher, 52, is in tatters. On Thursday he resigned as the government’s deputy chief whip after being accused of groping two men while out drinking the night before at the Carlton Club, a Tory watering hole.

    One of his alleged victims said he was left “shell-shocked” after Pincher groped his left buttock and groin shortly after purchasing a round of drinks in the club’s Macmillan bar.

    “I had my drink in my hand and then he then went down and grabbed my arse and then slowly ... moved his hand down the front of my groin. I froze a little bit and it ended after about two or three seconds, but it was a very bizarre thing.” An MP corroborated this account.

    His ordeal was made worse, the alleged victim claims, when Sarah Dines, a Tory whip who was also present and whom he spoke to about the incident, asked him if he was gay. “I was a bit taken aback by that and said, ‘What’s that got to do with it? But yes, I am,’ ” the man said. “And her words were: ‘Well, that doesn’t make it straightforward.’ ”

    Friends of Dines say she was attempting to establish the full circumstances of what happened and whether there had been a prior relationship between Pincher and the man. She later reported the incident to her superiors, which friends say shows she took the matter seriously.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tories-rallied-round-pincher-by-name-pincher-by-nature-in-spite-of-warnings-99r5gj5lm
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,813
    Andy_JS said:

    Rubbish editing from the BBC at Wimbledon. Everyone wanted to see whether the players were going to shake hands with each other, so just before it was about to happen or not happen they cut away to the audience applauding.

    cannot stand tennis but like a bit of feisty - was it a bit feisty then?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839
    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    kinabalu said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    On topic: is this really a problem for No.10? There have now been so many scandals that you wonder if the public has reached saturation point and fails to notice any new ones.

    I reckon that an organised vice ring of Tory MPs could be found to have been running an operation hawking rent boys and cocaine from the House of Commons tea room (and splitting the profits 50:50 with the Russian Embassy,) and the Conservative Party still wouldn't drop any further in the polls.

    Sleaze is always baked in, I remember a pollster telling me what sticks in the mind of the public is hypocrisy and behaviour that is likely to see you signing the nonce jotter.
    This'll have no further effect on the (in any case meaningless) VI polls, and the Conservatives will end up as at least the largest party at the next election. The only thing that'll change that will be an event that affects elderly incomes or inheritances - a hike in IHT, the abolition of the triple lock, or something that causes house prices to fall - and the Tories won't make those kinds of mistakes.
    Don't know why you're so sure the Cons will be the largest party. The Lab lead feels quite robust to me.
    An educated guess. They aren't going to slip below about 33% of the vote (John Major managed 31% in 1997, and the population has aged since then.) Labour isn't nearly as strong as it was in the 92-97 Parliament, Starmer doesn't look like Prime Minister in waiting or excite the same following as Blair did, Scotland certainly won't swing back to Labour in a big way, the Lib Dems are still rebuilding, I'm assuming some swingback to the Government, the current boundaries favour the Tories (and if they leave it until 2024 the revised ones are a bit better,) and in any case the age differentials in terms of party support and likelihood to vote are so great that you have to fancy the chances of the Grey Party in any general election.

    My better half reckons that the Tories will actually win the next election with a reduced majority; I'm not at all certain of that, but I do think they're likely to end up with more seats than Labour for the reasons given above.
    Have to get rid of Boris though. And soon enough that his replacement restores some sort of reputation to the party as well.
    It'd be best for the country to be rid of him as soon as possible, simply because of his transparent awfulness and the corrosive effect this is having on the entire structure of the state, but I'm not sure how much difference it will make to the Conservative Party.

    Everyone by now appreciates that the Conservative Party has no plan for the country and no interest in devising one ("levelling up" is, of course, a hollow slogan backed with no substance whatsoever.) Its entire purpose is its own self-perpetuation, to be achieved by defending the interests of well-to-do old people and their expectant heirs. That's it.

    Their weakness is that a change of leader is unlikely to materially alter these facts, or their appeal to voters outside of their favoured client groups. It is also their greatest strength. Literally anybody could take over from Boris Johnson as their leader and would still command at least a third of the popular vote, and probably a fair bit on top of that, at a general election.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,929

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Not that I’d want to enrage HFUYD on here and summon the tanks..

    Poll in @SundayTimesScot: “On the question of whether or not they support independence, 48 per cent said they were in favour while 47 per cent were opposed. Five per cent said they did not know.”

    ..Nicola Sturgeon has tweeted her delight at the poll. But I can’t see how Scotland isn’t stuck in a cycle of despair if that continues. Even if a vote is held and won by yes, the division won’t end.

    First Yes lead in quite a while - a mighty 1%. Surprised that she should "tweet her delight" at that TBH.
    Well, she’s taken a punt on it, so I’d imagine she wants to encourage the base as well

    Remember 2014. Quite an increase in Yes over the time of the campaign.
    But there isn’t going to be a campaign
    Which rather shows up your anti-democratic views. Never a good look, with a U-turn coming.
    U-turn? Talk me through it. If the polls turn against the unionists they are even LESS likely to grant a vote. They will have everyone to lose and nothing to gain by yielding

    However I really doubt the polls will shift. Anyone who has an opinion in Scotland is unlikely to change it in the next 18 months or so
    "has an opinion" is the critical bit. There are plenty of DKs still.
    But where is this u-turn coming, and how, and why?
    The dilemma is that the later the unionists grant a vote the worse the result will be for them.
    Allow a vote now (and tonight's poll is clear most Scots do not want an indyref2 next year) then even if Unionists win it again, the SNP would demand indyref3 within 5 years. After all they had no respect for 2014 being a once in a generation vote
    I’ve been meaning to ask, what was the polling on the UK population wanting a referendum on the EU pre June 2016?
    Looked very high:

    https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/are-you-are-in-favour-of-having-a-referendum-on-uk-membership-of-eu/
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,282

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    One of the men allegedly groped by Chris Pincher at the Carlton Club on Wednesday has spoken to The Sunday Times about his anger at how Number 10 dealt with the matter

    Exclusive by @cazjwheeler and me on the front page of tomorrow’s paper https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1543286206062108672

    What exactly does groped mean anyway?
    Tube campaign:

    image
    Deliciously, that poster campaign uses the classic London Underground font (a beautiful font) largely developed by Eric Gill

    Ahem

    I hope there is a follow-up poster which says

    “FUCKING THE FAMILY DOG, AND ALL YOUR DAUGHTERS

    Is not allowed on the Bakerloo Line”
    Yes well, we're back to the age-old issue of great art being sometimes produced by utter arseholes. Wagner and Picasso, say 'Hi'.

    Eric Gill produced some sublime fonts, and beautiful sculptures, which I love. But he was an evil perverted bastard.
    I agree. i just noted the delightful subplot hidden in those posters

    Incidentally, was Picasso an utter arsehole? I’m not sure he was. A fairly selfish womanising bastard, perhaps, but he was also liked and loved by a lot of people. And yes his fame and money and charisma meant he got to fuck a lot of women. So be it. Successful men will do that

    I’m not sure you can put him in the same bracket as Wagner, who expressed vile anti-Semitic views throughout his life, and put these ugly sentiments into his art.

    Picasso was largely apolitical (he pretended to be communist but didn’t mean it) and such politics as he did express in his art was on the side of the angels. Guernica, in particular

This discussion has been closed.