Tamworth – the next by-election? – politicalbetting.com
So far at least Mr. Pincher (which seems an unfortunate name given the circumstances) has not resigned as an MP and we await the inquiry into what actually happened that caused this whole affair to explode yesterday.
I would prefer that we had a stronger recall mechanism so that the voters of Tamworth had a means to make their views known without waiting for a general election.
Assault is assault, wherever it happens, surely?
My guess is that there will be regrets, a brief suspension, some treatment/therapy and back into the fold once more. Even politicians are human beings, after all.
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Labour have held it before, not that long ago.
And Pincher has been a very bad MP, and is not personally popular. Easy to imagine a better candidate might get a boost (if they can find one, but I happen to know one is available).
But the real significance of Tamworth is the electorate it represents. The not affluent but property owning, solid, manufacturing based, perhaps slightly unambitious but very dependable backbone of middle England. The Tories' safe heartland.
If the Tories were to lose it, they would have lost in the Red Wall (Wakefield) the commuter belt (Chesham) the rural blue wall (Tiverton and Oswestry) and the skilled working areas (Tamworth). At this point, you would begin to wonder what seats they *could* rely on.\
My comment was:
Without wishing to go all Epping, Chris Pincher has increased his vote-share at all of the recent elections I don't know Tamworth; I've only ever been there once, but it did seem the sort of seat that the modern Conservatives ought to hold!
What were his parents thinking?
The perceived implication is that it depends how much dirt one knows about on one's superiors. And/or how many chums one has in the Parliamentary Party.
I entirely agree they should hold it, if only because there's no real tradition of Liberal Democrat strength (unlike Lichfield) and Labour are more or less moribund. I was thinking more about the implications if they were to lose it.
But then, they should have held North Shropshire and didn't, and there wasn't a strong Lib Dem tradition there either.
I was told (not by him obviously) that her trial took far longer than it should because she was wanting to speak about her views on how women are treated in politics and her views on Scottish independence. I understand from some involved in the trial, and indeed her previous trial, that she was pretty annoying, very much of the we are doing the right thing, who are you to question us, school.
It's pretty staggering that someone like DavidL still needs to be educated on an issue like this.
Obvs the Tories must win it: do the maths; Midlands; Peel. (But list too long to adumbrate renders them unelectable)
Obvs Labour must win it: they held it till 2010 and are the only challenger, (But boundary changes and Labour not v good at byelections ATM)
Obvs LD must win it: they come from third to win in NS, and T and H. That's what they are good at. (But vote share closer to zero than 11%)
On the face of it all of them will win it, and all of them will lose it.
What larks. And perhaps betting opportunities.
Expect a good deal of expectation management "LDs losing here" etc.
He apparently asked Tory MPs who they wanted to appear in their constituency to bolster their vote during an election campaign, and their answer was still BoZo.
The man who was booed at the jubilee? They want him standing next to them in a campign? Maybe while they hide in a fridge...
Those words 'my current wife' are chilling.
How on earth the tory party elected this wicked clown is amazing. That they didn't remove him from office last month even more so.
Easy to get activists there. And once they're there, it's a helpfully compact seat.
Oh, sorry, is that not what you meant?
Thoughts on England? I fear they are fragile
The entire judgement is a gem.
I am not suggesting that it gets swept under any carpet but I am suggesting that the offender should be treated compassionately if there are explanations for his behaviour. Is that so awful?
Point 2: That is true. But that is from the purely selfish point of view of your average Tory MP, already under suspicion of having a non-trivial chance of being a sex pest.
Also: if there were earlier events, then where were they alleged to have happened? I haven't been following the details, though.
It isn't amazing because far too many of them are just as bad as he is, and it's depressing...for exactly the same reason, actually.
PS @DavidL I find that I struggle to find any difference between our views on just about anything, yet we have supported different parties most of the time. I wonder why?. My only thought is, is it the underlying philosophy of the parties we support rather than the desired end result.
How he became.and remains and MP is a mystery. You would have thought someone along the way, be they a Tory selector or a voter would have said hang on, this is not necessarily the best person to represent us.
(There are others like this, but he stands out as a big Why?)
A proper investigation rather that quietly brushing it under the carpet seems essential. I take your point about compassion, but that surely should not extend to ignoring possible criminal offences of this nature ?
Me for @thetimes
It seems that the ideal MP candidate is ambitious, but flawed and controllable. Articulate, but incapable of independent thought.
As a result, you end up with some genuinely odd people.
Neither "Johnson appoints terrible people" nor "Johnson tells fibs" is news, is it?
Or has Dan Hodges only just noticed?
Henriques will dine out on it for his entire retirement.
I agree with you no longer the case
Richard Taruskin, Vigorously Polemical Musicologist, Dies at 77
I see it quite a lot on here but rarely anywhere else.
"After the uprising of the 17th of June
The Secretary of the Writers' Union
Had leaflets distributed on the Stalinallee
Stating that the people
Had forfeited the confidence of the government
And could only win it back
By increased work quotas. Would it not in that case be simpler
for the government
To dissolve the people
And elect another?"
Regardless, changes (or lack thereof) didn't seem to be the point. More that individual merits are irrelevant and changes will or wont happen pretty much purely due to party label.
Can't really see a solution. Its damn near impossible to assess whether they dova good job and most won't be well known.
That PBers are a self selected group who are automatically going to think that voters are a bit dim (they are) is more or less what Kant would call an a priori synthetic truth but it doesn't change what democracy is for or which group of people (all voters) are ultimately accountable.
All alternatives, without exception, build in authoritarianism of some sort.
Politics might be inevivitably a bit grubby, as the saying goes, but it is not required that you cover yourself in shit.
Glad I didn't.
He's a Tory so it's an existential threat to the continued existence of democratic civilisation . Or at least that's what Angela Rayner says. Ish.
No problem with an investigation, but if there is sanctimonious crapulating from places where a similar suspension has not been applied, then fingers should be pointed.
On the Guardian's point about obesity is there a correlation between levels of obesity in the population and the Conservative vote? I don't see a lot of obese people in Witham!
You can't resolve problems in democracy by anything other than the instruments of democracy; campaigning, persuading, standing for election, party organisation, voting.
All other solutions are basically imposing opinions in an authoritarian manner.
When it comes to 'safe seats', most people's thinking is backwards. They look at the current maths and declare this seat is 'safe'. All that means is that voters as a whole have acted a certain way. They are entitled to. It is in their power. Unless it binds their future decisions in a way which forces them they remain free next time to do as they will.
Tamworth is a safe Tory seat. But it was Labour only recently.
The principle has been set with Parish et Al: withdraw the whip, conduct the investigation, return the whip or crack it depending on the outcome. Trying to brush it aside because this guy is one of your pals is boorish nepotism. Tractor Man has a right to be cross.