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Next Thursday looks like being a “mini referendum” on the PM – politicalbetting.com
Next Thursday looks like being a “mini referendum” on the PM – politicalbetting.com
This is the final weekend before next Thursday’s by-elections when the Tories will be defending Wakefield and Tiverton & Honiton in Devon. If these go the way of the betting then both seats will be lost thus reducing the CON seat total by 2 and increasing the non-CON total also by two.
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I reckon she won at least three General Elections, and maybe a couple of others along the way.
A month later she was out.
ETA the point is that Boris and his advisors might seek to follow this precedent of an unpopular Prime Minister leading the party to a huge majority.
I know plenty of men 60+ who preferred Heath for that reason.
Of course, Thatcher showed that the right woman could be a better leader than all the men in parliament.
Thatcher was helped in 1978-9 by the winter of discontent chaos, and in 1983 by the utterly unelectable Trotskyite Michael Foot and in 1987 by "the two Davids".
In the late 1980's her unpopularity spread and after Eastbourne it was obvious that she was now a liability.
Boris Johnson is now a liability but it's nigh-impossible to get the dewey eyed enthralled lovers to listen.
My objection to her was political, not gender based. The 1980-81 destruction of manufacturing in order to fight inflation was unnecessarily brutal, and she really didn't care at all about the human cost, indeed positively seemed to enjoy it.
F1: penalty for Leclerc,10 places for new electronics.
Verstappen looking good, Sainz not too far off but Perez either had some problems (I'll read up a little) or fell asleep during his fast laps.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/17/britain-has-a-decision-to-make-the-rule-of-boris-johnson-or-the-rule-of-law?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
https://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/the-economic-case-for-and-against-thatcherism
And this classic paper on the deindustrialisation of Britain takes a longer perspective.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://michaelkitson.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/wp-459-2014-kitson-and-michie-the-deindustrial-revolution.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiStrzJoLb4AhXJMMAKHVsZDQwQFnoECA0QAQ&usg=AOvVaw0zKE-cIY4i4o7D4esvZrC0
A renewed bout of Thatcherism is the surest way to lose the Red Wall.
Persistent circulating SARS-CoV-2 spike is associated with post-acute COVID-19 sequelae
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.06.14.22276401v1.full.pdf
Spike protein was detected up to twelve months after infection in individuals showing long Covid symptoms, but in none of the (previously infected, but fully recovered) control group.
It’s a relatively small study, but the results look quite robust.
Also interesting is that it seems the majority of those reporting long Covid symptoms are women (there are significant differences in immune response between the sexes).
The harder cases, aside of those with permanent physical damage, may well be those where the condition is a FND diagnosis, as many patients reject that and believe that there must be a physical cause.
He’s so incompetent he frequently does it by accident, but that’s a different problem.
And if you stretch the point to say she did, then I'd also argue that the Labour Party at the time was in exactly the same position: just that 'our people' were a different segment of society.
The idea that the decline of Britain and British manufacturing (and many other things) magically started in 1979 is absolute rubbish. Was Thatcher actually a symptom of the malaise (in trying to fix it), rather than the cause of the malaise?
“The chances that COVID leaked from China’s secretive virology lab in Wuhan are “99.9%,” but the World Health Organization (WHO) will probably never be able to prove it, Johns Hopkins Professor Marty Makary told “Morning Wire,” in an exclusive interview Friday.
“The WHO probe is taking place even as China goes on the offensive, claiming the virus that has killed over 6 million people worldwide started in the U.S. But Makary, a best-selling author and surgeon, said it has always been obvious where it originated.
“For a lot of scientists, it’s 99.9% likely,” Makary said. “And it’s the default hypothesis until proven otherwise.””
https://twitter.com/mzee26/status/1538044024120037381?s=21&t=tuKMKmD-SGVzI4FwLTGdUw
99.9%
He may not be the leader for long though, so a return of Monetarist policy may well happen.
This govt really has no moral compass.
https://news.sky.com/story/rwanda-deportation-grounding-of-the-first-flight-to-rwanda-was-absolutely-scandalous-patel-says-12636036
But the persistence of long term viral reservoirs in some individuals is a much more easily testable hypothesis than ill defined mental health issues - and it’s relatively simple to repeat and refine this study on a larger scale.
And if confirmed, there’s a group of patients for whom treatments can be developed.
The PM's response? He's going to massively ramp up the war on wedge. Lefty lawyers. Woke. Trans Perverts. Invading migrants. Don't talk about me. Or the economy. Or the lack of money in your pocket. Fear what *they* want to take away from you.
And then an election.
Doesn’t sound much of a scientist.
We are going to Leeds for the weekend to see our granddaughter's new apartment and spend time with her, so I will not be participating much this weekend
However, I have to say that yesterday's disgraceful trip to Ukraine by Boris, delivering a slap in the face to his northern mps and lying about being on the train to them, just has to be the last straw and it is imperative the party acts now and removes him from office
Hopefully, the two by elections will see catastrophic results for him, though I did not join the chorus of criticism against the conservative candidate at the hustings as she is facing an impossible position through the unacceptability and unsuitability of Boris who shames us all. I really do not know how conservative mps can look themselves in the mirror as long as they allow this charade to continue
I note that increasingly Starmer's future as labour leader is being questioned across the media, including the Guardian openly discussing alternatives including Wes Streeting and even Dawn Butler. I actually think some in labour hope he receives a FPN, but I still think it is unlikely but not impossible
At a time like this we look around and just cannot see any outstanding politicians and not just here but abroad, and the trip by Scholz, Macron and Drahi to Kyiv was an utter embarrassment as graphically illustrated in the photograph of Macron's pathetic embrace of Zelensky. They are seen as appeasers by Ukraine and others and it is not surprising Boris is popular there, but the irony is his latest stunt may just be the trigger that ends his premiership
And finally I note Trump outpolls Biden and, god forbid, we really do not need him back in 2024
I'd also argue that Thatcher's government did not 'stand by and do nothing' - far from.
IMV the UK in the 1970s had major structural problems caused by decisions made in the 1950s and 1960s. Our industries (management, finance, unions and workers) were complacent and stubborn, causing them to lose a large advantage they had. Government policy had been to throw money at the problem: only for that money to largely get wasted.
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/congo-official-rwanda-war-war-85410555
Johnson could get more value from his extraordinary rendition flights with refugees in the cabin and NLAWs in the belly hold.
They could have followed the Stade de France playbook and just deleted it all after 7 days.
https://www.thisisanfield.com/2022/06/cctv-footage-of-extremely-violent-scenes-at-stade-de-france-destroyed/
https://www.france24.com/en/france/20220610-cctv-footage-from-champions-league-fiasco-inexplicably-deleted
OK…
“Makary was born in Liverpool, England, and moved to Baltimore as a young child. His family later moved to Danville, Pennsylvania, when his father took a job as a hematologist at the Geisinger Medical Center. Makary holds degrees from Bucknell University, Thomas Jefferson University and Harvard University. He was president of the student body at Harvard, and later served on the alumni board. He completed a Masters of Public Health (M.P.H.) degree, with a concentration in health policy.”
“Makary completed a surgical residency at Georgetown University[7] in Washington D.C. where he also worked as a writer for The Advisory Board Company. Makary completed sub-specialty surgery training at Johns Hopkins in surgical oncology and gastrointestinal surgery under surgeon John Cameron, before joining Cameron's faculty practice as a partner.[8] In his first few years on the faculty at Johns Hopkins, Makary researched and wrote articles on the prevention of surgical complications.[9] He published on frailty[10] as a medical condition, and on safety and teamwork culture in medicine. Makary is the first author of the original scientific publications describing "The Surgery Checklist".[11]
“Makary worked with the World Health Organization[12] to develop the official World Health Organization Surgical Checklist.[1] For his contributions to the field of medicine, Makary was named Mark Ravitch Chair in Gastrointestinal Surgery, an endowed chair at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, becoming the youngest endowed chair recipient at the time at the university. Three years later, he was named the Credentials Chair and Director of Quality and Safety for Surgery at Johns Hopkins.[7] In 2020, Makary was named Editor-in-Chief of MedPage Today. He was also appointed chief of the Johns Hopkins Islet Transplant Center, clinical lead for the Johns Hopkins Sibley Innovation Hub, Executive Director of Improving Wisely, a Robert Wood Johnson Foundation project to lower health care costs, is founder of the Johns Hopkins Center For Surgical Outcomes Research and Clinical Trials, and Professor of Surgery and Public Health at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.[13]”
I’ll bet 5 Armenian dram that he is way more of “a scientist” than, say, Peter Daszak, of Wuhan’s Ecohealth, the man from whose lab the virus probably leaked, and the same man who wrote to the Lancet in early 2020, denouncing the lab leak hypothesis as a “racist conspiracy theory”, and thereby successfully squashing public discussion of it for about a year,
Brexit, covid and war in Ukraine in that time span shows just how quickly events can change narratives and to be honest they are the perfect example of why todays polls are irrelevant to GE24
“For a lot of scientists it’s 99.9% likely”
So less than 99.9%
FWIW I suspect it was an accidental leak from the lab
I can’t see it. He’d lose handsomely.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://michaelkitson.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/wp-459-2014-kitson-and-michie-the-deindustrial-revolution.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiStrzJoLb4AhXJMMAKHVsZDQwQFnoECA0QAQ&usg=AOvVaw0zKE-cIY4i4o7D4esvZrC0
The economy is heading for a contraction Prime Minister. Won't be pretty. And the rebels are coming for you. Or, lets go into campaign mode. Hammer the wedge issues. Make them love you again...
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2022/jun/18/mystery-of-waterloos-dead-soldiers-to-be-re-examined-by-academics
The primary paper seems to be open access:
https://www.tandfonline.com/journals/yjca20
I’d say it is more like ~95% probable; there is a small but not vanishingly small chance it came from a natural spillover, despite the overwhelming circumstantial evidence to the contrary
The medic is surely right that we will now never know for certain. That’s one reason why the initial cover- up - and 100% there was a cover-up of the plausible lab leak hypothesis - was such a disaster. That first year was surely the time we might have got answers if the world had really pressed China. Now any evidence has gone, dissident doctors in China have been killed or “disappeared”, the market has been rebooted, and Peter Daszak is still a free man, for reason known only to him and Doctor Fauci
Another reason this debate is really important is that it feeds into the Trumpite narrative of the Lying Left. Disastrously so
Trumpites can say Look you lie and conceal things to destroy Trump and the American Left can deny this but when it comes to Lab Leak it is demonstrably true. So the Trumpites then feel vindicated - and persecuted - and the vicious war in American politics gets worse. Covering up lab leak has made Trump MORE electable, not less
This is not good
She says, and I paraphrase: “All that matters is beating Trump, the election is the only issue, he has to lose” - and one can empathise with her urgency
But she comes close to saying ANYTHING is justified as long as it helps to defeat Trump. Anything? Like, lying about the probable origins of a global catastrophe for a year? Or getting the FBI to smear Trump? Or worse?
This is the TGV to Civil War. Once you believe your opponent is so evil you can justify doing anything to stop him, then he and his supporters will feel the same about stopping you. That cannot end well
Granit Xhaka’s mysterious booking in Arsenal’s Premier League win at Leeds last season is being investigated by the National Crime Agency amid suspicions of a major betting scandal.
The FA conducted a six-month investigation and have referred the matter to the country’s leading organised crime agency in a development which indicates serious concerns over corruption and possible criminality.
The FA opened their inquiry after being alerted to suspicious betting patterns relating to a yellow card shown to Xhaka towards the end of Arsenal’s 4-1 win at Elland Road on December 18.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/sportsnews/article-10928509/Arsenal-Granit-Xhakas-booking-vs-Leeds-investigated-amid-suspicions-betting-scandal.html
It is not unreasonable to want to defeat him.
The trickier question is: how much his horribleness justifies illegal or immoral behaviour in his opponents
It isn't just the rule of law that Johnson and co play fast and loose with, also ideas of effective government through cabinet collective responsibility. The opposition could turn this in to an issue of a tyrannical government with no respect for the law trying to strip people of their rights - in the established tradition of trying to outlaw protest etc. Maybe this will all contribute to the undoing of this government.
Incredible. This is his scientific CV. This is the entire extent of it
[edit]
Daszak earned a B.Sc. in zoology in 1987, at Bangor University and a Ph.D. in parasitic infectious diseases in 1994 at University of East London.[2]
Career[edit]
Daszak worked at the School of Life Sciences, Kingston University, in Surrey, England in the 1990s. In the late 1990s Daszak moved to the United States and was affiliated with the Institute of Ecology at the University of Georgia and the National Center for Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, in Atlanta, Georgia. Around 2001 he became executive director at a collaborative think-tank in New York City, the Consortium for Conservation Medicine.[7] He has adjunct positions at two universities in the U.K. and three universities in the U.S., including the Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health.[2][8]
He’s got a Bsc in Zoology from…… Bangor, Yes, Bangor. And a Phd in parasites from…. The University of fucking Tower Hamlets
This is the man whose word we all took as gospel, when he organised that letter to the Lancet, denouncing “lab leak” as a racist conspiracy theory
A Bsc in Zoology from Bangor, a doctorate bought from a rag and bone man in Whitechapel, then various “collaborative think tanks”
Louis Pasteur he is not
And good morning to one & all!
I do have a small bet on the blues holding that seat, though I'm expecting it to fail.
F1: unsure if I'll wait to do the pre-qualifying tosh or put it up early. I had a tiny bet on Sainz each way to top first practice, which came off. Also have a tiny bet on him for the win each way at 16.
Surprised Perez seems so far off the pace.
And be certain to check the weather.
No
I will be very happy to lose my fiver on this one.
She may not have been the architect of industrial, and particularly manufacturing decline, but her hatred of unionised workers accelerated the process. She threw the baby out with the bathwater.
But how can the US right deal with Trump?
It’s not easy. Probably the best way is to accept a lot of the Trump rhetoric but reject the man by offering a plausible rightwing alternative within the GOP. Then, in office, tack nearer to the center as a peace offering to the Left. And then hope that the Democrats reciprocate by junking much of the Woke Shit. Result: civil war avoided
That’s the best I can do. It is a challenge
Also: I scoff at the idea that the Left is “holding the line”, like some political UN peacekeeping force. The Left is pursuing this culture war just like the Right
I also think the Tories might hold T and H. However, I had the same sense about Shropshire and was wronger than I could imagine.
I had thought Shrop was different from C and A, and now think Devon is different from Shrop. This may be wrong. Probably is.
But Boris has one amazing record: he gets what he needs when it counts. Losing T and H badly ought to finish him off. His form suggests it won't. So he might win yet again.
My stake on Tories winning is very modest. But if they do it is possible to see a maze like route to the Tories winning an early election. For which reason they need to lose very badly.
This is multiplied a hundred times over in the American Left, which means they will continue goading and provoking the Right, and which means the Right will return fire, and then some
Which leads to the polling we saw yesterday, with Trump - Trump! - leading Biden as the preferred president
Both sides have to lay down their arms; neither will, because both firmly believe their cause is righteous
I am most certainly not saying that the UK in the 1980s was a 'picture postcard'. I'm saying it was not the slough of despond others make it out to be (aside from Slough, obvs.)
As for 'hatred of unionised workers': I am unsure whether 'hatred' is the correct word. She was not find of them, certainly: then again one union tried to anti-democratically bring down her government, so the dislike was mutual.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jun/18/holiday-homes-are-hollowing-out-coastal-areas-says-mp
'“We’re sleepwalking into a new chapter of the housing crisis where communities are being hollowed out in a way that is irretrievable,” said the Labour MP Luke Pollard. “We’re beyond the tipping point in some places.”
The Covid pandemic has “turbo-charged” the housing crisis in many rural and coastal communities, Pollard said, as wealthy outsiders snap up holiday retreats – taking properties off the market and pushing prices beyond the reach of local residents.
This week, residents in the Yorkshire seaside town of Whitby became the latest to voice their anger about the housing crisis when they voted overwhelmingly for curbs on second homes.'
Johnsonian death squads would of course at present be illegal, certainly until laws are changed, and in Priti Patel, that is not beyond the realms of reason.
The Woke Left controls much of American media, ALL of academe, most of education, all of the arts, social sciences, all of social media (recall the Facebook/Twitter suppression of the Lab Leak theory) etc
That is what stirs up Trumpite anger. Probably the only arena they can win is the political arena. So they intend to, and then they will attack the Woke from within the White House