You think the idea is to stoke enough us vs them stories to leverage a win? Personally I think its unlikely, as the majority is still large and if Johnson wants (and isn't removed by his own side) he can go as long as Jan 2025. If the Tories were ahead in the polls I'd see the logic, but other than if they think they can't win the longer it goes on (economy, CoL etc), I just don't buy the argument for throwing power away.
On the last post's topic: Years ago, I recall reading a study of American voters, and their tolerance for ethical problems in the candidates they supported. It turned out -- assuming I am remembering this correctly -- that a fairly large number of voters saw ethical problems as just another issue, to be weighed against the others. That helps explain the support for candidates like the rascal king: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Michael_Curley
So a voter might agree that Curley was a crook, but still vote for him, thinking that Curley was right on public housing, taxing rich Protestants, finding a job for a relative, and so on.
(My apologies for posting this here, but I just now remembered, however vaguely, the study.)
Let me put a cynical argument
An unethical PM in the UK system can only enrich himself to a limited amount and that can be monitored and constrained.
But the characteristics of risk taking and a willingness to bend the rules may be advantageous if used in the service of the country. In fact an “ethical PM” could r d up being completely legged over by others
So surely we want bad people - appropriately constrained - running the country?
And re. Maggie ... no not really. Here is her inflation in an easily viewed graph. The early spike was partly because of inflationary pressures in the pipeline, partly because within days of taking office she gave police and armed forces a whopping pay rise, and partly because controlling the wildly out of control PSBR took many months of hard pruning.
I'm not an advocate of Margaret Thatcher, even though I consider her the greatest PM of my lifetime by a country mile. She had flaws and she could come across as cruel and inhumane with many of her hardline and intransigent policies. Her belief in no state intervention led to much of British industry going to the wall. She was right to curb union excesses though: the hard Left had crippled this country.
She was a remarkable PM nonetheless who undoubtedly changed this country and, love or loathe her, Britain went from the sick man of Europe to a prosperous nation.
She was a giant. The more so compared to the shit-show today.
She was a callous *****, and the root of the underlying problems we face, specifically a low manufacturing, retail economy selling foreign produce and intangible services, were always unsustainable in the long term. A permanent balance of trade deficit in goods was always folly.
Selling burgers and Chinese tat to each other with money borrowed on the back of property inflation has been sustained for a lot longer than I anticipated, I don't see that continuing with rising retail inflation and interest rates.
Completely wrong in a number of ways.
The decline in manufacturing output long predated 1979, the Conservatives actually raised manufacturing output over their time in office and there was a brief property boom in the late 80s it was new labour under which it had its most dramatic falls and when property price inflation really took off.
The process of replacing primary industries with hi-tech tertiary manufacturing from foreign owners using social fund grants was also short lived and short sighted. Allowing foreign ownership of UK manufacturing was also a huge error.
Neither am I giving New Labour a free ride, but that is not my point, which was a reaction to @Heathener 's eulogy to Thatcherism.
The crazy thing is that the first one to break cover and denounce Johnson would be a shoo-in. Yesterday one of them said in parliament the Prime Minister was 'a man of complete integrity' and you could time the laughter in minutes. If one of them walks away and says they can't be part of it any longer the job's theirs.
They fear that the job is whomsoever's it is that immediately follows them out. So no-one goes first.
I don't think it's impossible that there is a Tory/Boris scheme to see if an early election can be planned if both an excuse can be found and the polling improves from its currently remarkably favourable position. (Lab ought to be well ahead by now, and isn't).
A guess is that a win at T and H (which is not impossible) would be stage one of the plan, which of course can be jettisoned at any time. Such a win, given recent by elections and publicity generally would look like a triumph.
And of course if Boris calculates that he will chucked out the Steve Bakers of the party by the end of the year if things go on as they are, it's his only chance of survival.
Not defending the answers but it's good to see the BBC doing its job of showing us all sides, with (as far as I can tell) a really fluent interviewer asking polite but tough questions.
On a connected note I’m surprised that Steve Rosenberg is still permitted by Moscow to ply his trade. As you suggest he’s not afraid to ask difficult questions.
Interesting example of BBC economies.
That also went out over the radio (BBC WS this morning), and quite regularly now the web page article is the same words as the broadcast commentary.
The crazy thing is that the first one to break cover and denounce Johnson would be a shoo-in. Yesterday one of them said in parliament the Prime Minister was 'a man of complete integrity' and you could time the laughter in minutes. If one of them walks away and says they can't be part of it any longer the job's theirs.
They fear that the job is whomsoever's it is that immediately follows them out. So no-one goes first.
Excessive belief in the sword/crown myth. That has a sample size of what ? Two, three ?!
There was a Tory grandee early 20th century who gave a serious amount of his own wedge to pay down the national debt. Sunak should make a one off donation of 50m to Our NHS to make up for the non dom savings
Or he could invite Boris round to his country pad and slowly burn it in front of him to show him how nice it is to have money so Boris realises he needs to quit to start getting rich.
A much better use of 50m to the country.
How about just offering Boris a job as a consultant in one of his companies: 12 month contract for £25m?
And re. Maggie ... no not really. Here is her inflation in an easily viewed graph. The early spike was partly because of inflationary pressures in the pipeline, partly because within days of taking office she gave police and armed forces a whopping pay rise, and partly because controlling the wildly out of control PSBR took many months of hard pruning.
I'm not an advocate of Margaret Thatcher, even though I consider her the greatest PM of my lifetime by a country mile. She had flaws and she could come across as cruel and inhumane with many of her hardline and intransigent policies. Her belief in no state intervention led to much of British industry going to the wall. She was right to curb union excesses though: the hard Left had crippled this country.
She was a remarkable PM nonetheless who undoubtedly changed this country and, love or loathe her, Britain went from the sick man of Europe to a prosperous nation.
She was a giant. The more so compared to the shit-show today.
She was a callous *****, and the root of the underlying problems we face, specifically a low manufacturing, retail economy selling foreign produce and intangible services, were always unsustainable in the long term. A permanent balance of trade deficit in goods was always folly.
Selling burgers and Chinese tat to each other with money borrowed on the back of property inflation has been sustained for a lot longer than I anticipated, I don't see that continuing with rising retail inflation and interest rates.
Whichever party can rebuild our manufacturing industry deserves to win the red wall, and every other coloured wall.
And re. Maggie ... no not really. Here is her inflation in an easily viewed graph. The early spike was partly because of inflationary pressures in the pipeline, partly because within days of taking office she gave police and armed forces a whopping pay rise, and partly because controlling the wildly out of control PSBR took many months of hard pruning.
I'm not an advocate of Margaret Thatcher, even though I consider her the greatest PM of my lifetime by a country mile. She had flaws and she could come across as cruel and inhumane with many of her hardline and intransigent policies. Her belief in no state intervention led to much of British industry going to the wall. She was right to curb union excesses though: the hard Left had crippled this country.
She was a remarkable PM nonetheless who undoubtedly changed this country and, love or loathe her, Britain went from the sick man of Europe to a prosperous nation.
She was a giant. The more so compared to the shit-show today.
She was a callous *****, and the root of the underlying problems we face, specifically a low manufacturing, retail economy selling foreign produce and intangible services, were always unsustainable in the long term. A permanent balance of trade deficit in goods was always folly.
Selling burgers and Chinese tat to each other with money borrowed on the back of property inflation has been sustained for a lot longer than I anticipated, I don't see that continuing with rising retail inflation and interest rates.
Whichever party can rebuild our manufacturing industry deserves to win the red wall, and every other coloured wall.
And re. Maggie ... no not really. Here is her inflation in an easily viewed graph. The early spike was partly because of inflationary pressures in the pipeline, partly because within days of taking office she gave police and armed forces a whopping pay rise, and partly because controlling the wildly out of control PSBR took many months of hard pruning.
I'm not an advocate of Margaret Thatcher, even though I consider her the greatest PM of my lifetime by a country mile. She had flaws and she could come across as cruel and inhumane with many of her hardline and intransigent policies. Her belief in no state intervention led to much of British industry going to the wall. She was right to curb union excesses though: the hard Left had crippled this country.
She was a remarkable PM nonetheless who undoubtedly changed this country and, love or loathe her, Britain went from the sick man of Europe to a prosperous nation.
She was a giant. The more so compared to the shit-show today.
She was a callous *****, and the root of the underlying problems we face, specifically a low manufacturing, retail economy selling foreign produce and intangible services, were always unsustainable in the long term. A permanent balance of trade deficit in goods was always folly.
Selling burgers and Chinese tat to each other with money borrowed on the back of property inflation has been sustained for a lot longer than I anticipated, I don't see that continuing with rising retail inflation and interest rates.
Whichever party can rebuild our manufacturing industry deserves to win the red wall, and every other coloured wall.
Wage inflation puts a UK mfring industry even further out of reach every day
Should spice up any defence-of-Taiwan war games if they build a couple more.
That's a very large target.
It also makes bugger all difference. China can put fighter planes over Taiwan. Many planes. (China, is after all, not that far away....
The purpose of large carriers would be to help deny the theatre to the US navy. They would be some way beyond Taiwan.
How does having a bunch of your fighters on a sinkable runway help?
In the open sea, carriers are great, because your opponent doesn't know where they are. There's an area the size of France and Germany combined and you know there's a football field sized vessel there somewhere... but where?
If you stuff them in the Taiwan straits, they'll be found. And they'll be an expensive, sinkable, runway.
Far more likely than an invasion would be a naval blockade. See, for example, Cuba.
The crazy thing is that the first one to break cover and denounce Johnson would be a shoo-in. Yesterday one of them said in parliament the Prime Minister was 'a man of complete integrity' and you could time the laughter in minutes. If one of them walks away and says they can't be part of it any longer the job's theirs.
They fear that the job is whomsoever's it is that immediately follows them out. So no-one goes first.
Excessive belief in the sword/crown myth. That has a sample size of what ? Two, three ?!
Should spice up any defence-of-Taiwan war games if they build a couple more.
That's a very large target.
It also makes bugger all difference. China can put fighter planes over Taiwan. Many planes. (China, is after all, not that far away.)
But invading over 150 miles of ocean, towards a well armed and well equiped country, and where the easy beaches are on the far side of the island...
Well. That's the tough part.
If Taiwan gets invaded the PLAN carriers will be used for CAS for the amphibious assault. That's why the USN has 16 LHA/LHD carriers in the 'Gator Navy' over and above the CVN carriers.
Should spice up any defence-of-Taiwan war games if they build a couple more.
That's a very large target.
It also makes bugger all difference. China can put fighter planes over Taiwan. Many planes. (China, is after all, not that far away....
The purpose of large carriers would be to help deny the theatre to the US navy. They would be some way beyond Taiwan.
How does having a bunch of your fighters on a sinkable runway help?
In the open sea, carriers are great, because your opponent doesn't know where they are. There's an area the size of France and Germany combined and you know there's a football field sized vessel there somewhere... but where?
If you stuff them in the Taiwan straits, they'll be found. And they'll be an expensive, sinkable, runway.
I may be being naive but I assumed in these days of satellite monitoring no aircraft carrier could ever hide.
No, carriers are very hard to find and fix because they are fast. In a 90 minute period they can be anywhere in a 6,000 square mile area from their initial position.
They are also very hard to kill, even once you get past the CSG. In the USS America 2005 SINKEX it took four weeks to sink her!
Recon satellites also provide patchy coverage, with a certain part of the Earth's surface perhaps only being covered every few hours or days (depending, of course, on the number of satellites in orbit). Their orbits are also (mostly) predictable by the enemy - although many can change orbits, that's very expensive in fuel and each satellite can only do it a limited number of times.
I believe that's one of the reasons the U2 is still in service: they can be targeted in space and time much better (and often cheaper) than recon satellites.
The crazy thing is that the first one to break cover and denounce Johnson would be a shoo-in. Yesterday one of them said in parliament the Prime Minister was 'a man of complete integrity' and you could time the laughter in minutes. If one of them walks away and says they can't be part of it any longer the job's theirs.
They fear that the job is whomsoever's it is that immediately follows them out. So no-one goes first.
Excessive belief in the sword/crown myth. That has a sample size of what ? Two, three ?!
And one of those went the other way because Mrs Thatcher wielded the sword and did win the crown.
@Benpointer get better soon. Best of healing vibes.
The idea of a General Election this year is fanciful nonsense. It would be mass suicide: the Conservative Party equivalent of Jonestown.
If Johnson tried it then the party would eject him as leader in minutes.
They probably know that after this winter's heating bills, and sustained prices above £2 per litre at the pump, they will be out of power for a generation. Plus inflation is going nowhere, and rising interest rates are going to crash the housing market. So better to go to the polls now.
If they announced a substantial cut / total suspension of fuel duty in August, election in September and won a majority of just 1, they would look like geniuses compared to going to the polls in 2023.
It's 1997 in reverse. Instead of "things can only get better" it's "things can only get worse."
Simply cannot imagine what it must be like to be a sentient human being and member of this govt. It will undoubtedly be seen as the most catastrophic regime of modern times. A total shitshow of lawbreaking, corruption, ignorance and failure. Imagine knowing you were complicit. https://twitter.com/13sarahmurphy/status/1537154669914603520
Sounds like he is up there with Walpole and Lloyd George…
@Benpointer get better soon. Best of healing vibes.
The idea of a General Election this year is fanciful nonsense. It would be mass suicide: the Conservative Party equivalent of Jonestown.
If Johnson tried it then the party would eject him as leader in minutes.
They probably know that after this winter's heating bills, and sustained prices above £2 per litre at the pump, they will be out of power for a generation. Plus inflation is going nowhere, and rising interest rates are going to crash the housing market. So better to go to the polls now.
If they announced a substantial cut / total suspension of fuel duty in August, election in September and won a majority of just 1, they would look like geniuses compared to going to the polls in 2023.
It's 1997 in reverse. Instead of "things can only get better" it's "things can only get worse."
You are one of the most interesting posters on this subject, because I believe you've only recently come around to being on the same level as me, i.e. this is a potential huge disaster for the Tories.
The fact we come from different political sides shows just how big of a problem the Tories have.
And re. Maggie ... no not really. Here is her inflation in an easily viewed graph. The early spike was partly because of inflationary pressures in the pipeline, partly because within days of taking office she gave police and armed forces a whopping pay rise, and partly because controlling the wildly out of control PSBR took many months of hard pruning.
I'm not an advocate of Margaret Thatcher, even though I consider her the greatest PM of my lifetime by a country mile. She had flaws and she could come across as cruel and inhumane with many of her hardline and intransigent policies. Her belief in no state intervention led to much of British industry going to the wall. She was right to curb union excesses though: the hard Left had crippled this country.
She was a remarkable PM nonetheless who undoubtedly changed this country and, love or loathe her, Britain went from the sick man of Europe to a prosperous nation.
She was a giant. The more so compared to the shit-show today.
She was a callous *****, and the root of the underlying problems we face, specifically a low manufacturing, retail economy selling foreign produce and intangible services, were always unsustainable in the long term. A permanent balance of trade deficit in goods was always folly.
Selling burgers and Chinese tat to each other with money borrowed on the back of property inflation has been sustained for a lot longer than I anticipated, I don't see that continuing with rising retail inflation and interest rates.
Completely wrong in a number of ways.
The decline in manufacturing output long predated 1979, the Conservatives actually raised manufacturing output over their time in office and there was a brief property boom in the late 80s it was new labour under which it had its most dramatic falls and when property price inflation really took off.
That's also wrong. Apart from the unusual circumstances of the Covid shock, the biggest fall in manufacturing output occurred in the early 1980s, when output fell by 19% between June 1979 and May 1981. In 2008-09 the peak to trough decline was 12%, by contrast. Essentially, manufacturing output grew slowly during the 1970s with a sharp rise and fall mid-decade (the Barber boom and bust). It fell sharply in the early 1980s thanks to a strong pound and high interest rates, then grew rapidly before declining again in the early 90s recession before growing strongly again right up to the GFC, when it fell sharply again. It flat lined in the early years of the coalition government then grew again until early 2019. Since then it has essentially been flat apart from a record 31% decline thanks to Covid. In my opinion governments of all stripes have an okay record of trying to nurture UK manufacturing. The only really stupid and counterproductive policy that has been introduced during this time is Brexit.
The collapse of the red wall marked the first chapter of the UK's political realignment after Brexit. Is a 'blue wall' in prosperous south about to be the second?
And re. Maggie ... no not really. Here is her inflation in an easily viewed graph. The early spike was partly because of inflationary pressures in the pipeline, partly because within days of taking office she gave police and armed forces a whopping pay rise, and partly because controlling the wildly out of control PSBR took many months of hard pruning.
I'm not an advocate of Margaret Thatcher, even though I consider her the greatest PM of my lifetime by a country mile. She had flaws and she could come across as cruel and inhumane with many of her hardline and intransigent policies. Her belief in no state intervention led to much of British industry going to the wall. She was right to curb union excesses though: the hard Left had crippled this country.
She was a remarkable PM nonetheless who undoubtedly changed this country and, love or loathe her, Britain went from the sick man of Europe to a prosperous nation.
She was a giant. The more so compared to the shit-show today.
She was a callous *****, and the root of the underlying problems we face, specifically a low manufacturing, retail economy selling foreign produce and intangible services, were always unsustainable in the long term. A permanent balance of trade deficit in goods was always folly.
Selling burgers and Chinese tat to each other with money borrowed on the back of property inflation has been sustained for a lot longer than I anticipated, I don't see that continuing with rising retail inflation and interest rates.
Completely wrong in a number of ways.
The decline in manufacturing output long predated 1979, the Conservatives actually raised manufacturing output over their time in office and there was a brief property boom in the late 80s it was new labour under which it had its most dramatic falls and when property price inflation really took off.
...In my opinion governments of all stripes have an okay record of trying to nurture UK manufacturing. The only really stupid and counterproductive policy that has been introduced during this time is Brexit.
“It’s a bit more serious than partygate, isn’t it,” as a man in the West Yorkshire seat put it. “OK, he was found guilty but the thing that got me was that part of the Tory party was told before he was elected. They knew beforehand but stood by him.”
“He stood up in the House of Commons and said, ‘I have been informed that no rules were broken at the parties I didn’t go to’. Then you find out that he was at them, which was a blatant lie to everyone in the country. I can’t trust a single word that comes out of Boris’s mouth from now on.”
You trusted every word before? “No, but I could trust a percentage of them. Now it’s zero trust.”
“The fact that he can’t even brush his hair in the morning has really started to grate on me.”
Some said that, for them, the revelations had tipped the balance against him: “He’s a character, a bit of a geezer in an Eton sort of way, but there’s a fulcrum isn’t there? And I think he’s slightly tipped that fulcrum now. He’s gone from being the loveable rogue to being someone who’s lost credibility”; “The fact that he can’t even brush his hair in the morning has really started to grate on me.”
And fundamentally, this is why Johnson will not win another election. His act is now a negative.
For a few, Starmer would do, but even here the endorsements felt grudging.
“I’m not particularly keen on Starmer but I think he could get the job done. He’s still very upper class but it’s not the sort of Spitting Image thing we’ve had for the last two years. It’s been like watching the Muppet Show.”
Starmer has got an image problem
Upper class? He's the most working class Labour leader has had for years - and people consider him to be upper class and not Johnson. Astonishing.
On topic: The problem with the Rishi comeback theory is that it's at best a strictly time-limited comeback. As others have pointed out, the economy is in a God-awful mess and it's going to be very painful for most voters; it's hard to see how as Chancellor he doesn't get much of the blame for that, even if in reality there's not a lot he can do about it. What's more, the non-dom status and his ultra-wealthy position may have receded from the public consciousness a bit, but you can bet your bottom dollar (assuming you still have one) that they would be prominent in Labour attack lines and in media comment if he were to become party leader and PM.
For a few, Starmer would do, but even here the endorsements felt grudging.
“I’m not particularly keen on Starmer but I think he could get the job done. He’s still very upper class but it’s not the sort of Spitting Image thing we’ve had for the last two years. It’s been like watching the Muppet Show.”
“I was frightened of Corbyn, but I’m not frightened of Starmer.”
Significantly, though, he had managed to neutralise the fear of a Labour government that had worked to the Tories’ advantage. “I was frightened of Corbyn, but I’m not frightened of Starmer,” one man in the Devon seat told us – an important point where the prospect of a Labour-Lib Dem coalition could be a central Tory theme at a general election.
1. The economic winter is going to brutalise voters 2. The government's ratings will tank both from the economic winter and their MP's "so what?" sneering response to it. 3. Tory rebels haven't gone away, nor have the boulders that weigh Big Dog down stopped landing on top of him 4. History demonstrates that leaders who scrape a confidence win are finished within a year at most
So why not go this year? Get what support you can from the 2019 coalition of voters who can be revved up to SAVE BREXIT from the remoaners and the judges and the naysayers. Get that done before they get reamed by the CoL disaster. And stymie the rebels by forcing them to toe the line for an election when instead they would be on full attack mode through conference season and beyond.
Remember that the *only* thing of value to Boris Johnson is Boris Johnson. If he thinks the rebellion is done and people won't care about being cold and hungry then yes carry on. But his advisors I assume are pointing out reality. Hence Crosby reappearing.
I believe that's one of the reasons the U2 is still in service: they can be targeted in space and time much better (and often cheaper) than recon satellites.
There are also some treaty obligations that require wet film imagery rather than digital so the Dragon Lady still has that mission. The US should just pass some legislation to fuck the treaty off if it is inconvenient.
@Benpointer get better soon. Best of healing vibes.
The idea of a General Election this year is fanciful nonsense. It would be mass suicide: the Conservative Party equivalent of Jonestown.
If Johnson tried it then the party would eject him as leader in minutes.
They probably know that after this winter's heating bills, and sustained prices above £2 per litre at the pump, they will be out of power for a generation. Plus inflation is going nowhere, and rising interest rates are going to crash the housing market. So better to go to the polls now.
If they announced a substantial cut / total suspension of fuel duty in August, election in September and won a majority of just 1, they would look like geniuses compared to going to the polls in 2023.
It's 1997 in reverse. Instead of "things can only get better" it's "things can only get worse."
^this. The economy is *fucked*. Like once in a generation 1970s fucked. There is no happy ending for any government who has to carry the can through those events, especially when the government is on boostervision and simply denies there is a problem.
We are rapidly approaching the political tipping point. Two major and one minor factors to consider: BREXIT: People swinging into the "this is shit" camp. But still persuadable that its shit only because remoaners / judges / lefties / the EU are to blame. They won't get away with that line of argument in 2024 ECONOMY: Fucked. Going to get more fucked before there is any recovery and all I can see is downside in terms of the economic hardships that will need to be endured afterwards CULTURE: The minor factor. There is only so long they can stoke division with fear of lady cock and forrin refugees. Rwanda is a wedge issue, so make maximum use of it before it becomes clear the policy won't work and was never going to work.
@Benpointer get better soon. Best of healing vibes.
The idea of a General Election this year is fanciful nonsense. It would be mass suicide: the Conservative Party equivalent of Jonestown.
If Johnson tried it then the party would eject him as leader in minutes.
They probably know that after this winter's heating bills, and sustained prices above £2 per litre at the pump, they will be out of power for a generation. Plus inflation is going nowhere, and rising interest rates are going to crash the housing market. So better to go to the polls now.
If they announced a substantial cut / total suspension of fuel duty in August, election in September and won a majority of just 1, they would look like geniuses compared to going to the polls in 2023.
It's 1997 in reverse. Instead of "things can only get better" it's "things can only get worse."
You are one of the most interesting posters on this subject, because I believe you've only recently come around to being on the same level as me, i.e. this is a potential huge disaster for the Tories.
The fact we come from different political sides shows just how big of a problem the Tories have.
Thanks.
I'm not sure my position is as hardcore libertarian as some on this site, but it is very economically dry while being socially liberal.
In other words there is absolutely nothing for me in the red meat for the red wall, culture wars crap that the Tories seem to rely on these days.
For me, it's always about the economy, and giving people as much freedom as possible.
That means there is often something of a faustian pact between people like me and the Conservative party, i.e. "I will vote for you on the basis that you are going to be better for the economy than the other guy".
I reckon there are a lot of people out there who aren't natural small-c "conservatives" but who vote Conservative anyway because "you can't trust Labour on the economy."
Well, I put it to you that the Conservatives are busy shredding what little remains of their reputation on the economy and after failing to control the cost of living crisis, what little reputation they have left will be in tatters.
I also agree with Max_PB that the Conservatives have run the economy for the benefit of their pensioner client vote to the detriment of working age people, and that needs to change.
At the next election I will vote for whoever is better on the economy. I'm yet to see what Labour propose, but at the minute it's hard to see them mis-managing things worse than the Conservatives.
Positive covid test this morning - it's finally caught up with me. Feel like sh*t too.
Hey ho.
Rest and drink lots of water. Battling through it is really not the best plan.
Thanks David, I'll do that. Helped by the fact that Mrs P. has a bit of sympathy now that she's seen the test result she knows it's not just man flu.
She's off to buy me a tin of Heinz Tomato Soup - nowadays a terrible ultra-processed food, no doubt, but my childhood comfort blanket for every kind of minor sickness :-)
1. The economic winter is going to brutalise voters 2. The government's ratings will tank both from the economic winter and their MP's "so what?" sneering response to it. 3. Tory rebels haven't gone away, nor have the boulders that weigh Big Dog down stopped landing on top of him 4. History demonstrates that leaders who scrape a confidence win are finished within a year at most
So why not go this year? Get what support you can from the 2019 coalition of voters who can be revved up to SAVE BREXIT from the remoaners and the judges and the naysayers. Get that done before they get reamed by the CoL disaster. And stymie the rebels by forcing them to toe the line for an election when instead they would be on full attack mode through conference season and beyond.
Remember that the *only* thing of value to Boris Johnson is Boris Johnson. If he thinks the rebellion is done and people won't care about being cold and hungry then yes carry on. But his advisors I assume are pointing out reality. Hence Crosby reappearing.
Crosby is fresh from masterminding a total disaster of a campaign in Australia. He's a one-trick pony without a Plan B, who seems keen to repeat the Coalition playbook. Which isn't to say it won't work here.
Should spice up any defence-of-Taiwan war games if they build a couple more.
That's a very large target.
It also makes bugger all difference. China can put fighter planes over Taiwan. Many planes. (China, is after all, not that far away.)
But invading over 150 miles of ocean, towards a well armed and well equiped country, and where the easy beaches are on the far side of the island...
Well. That's the tough part.
If Taiwan gets invaded the PLAN carriers will be used for CAS for the amphibious assault. That's why the USN has 16 LHA/LHD carriers in the 'Gator Navy' over and above the CVN carriers.
Dura mate, six acronyms? Really?
USN - United States Navy - I got.
PLAN - People's Liberation Army Navy CAS - Close Air Support LHA - Landing Helicopter Assault ship (though they also operate fixed wing combat types for the aforementioned CAS mission) LHD - Landing Helicopter Dock (see LHA) CVN - Nuclear powered Ford/Nimitz carrier
1. The economic winter is going to brutalise voters 2. The government's ratings will tank both from the economic winter and their MP's "so what?" sneering response to it. 3. Tory rebels haven't gone away, nor have the boulders that weigh Big Dog down stopped landing on top of him 4. History demonstrates that leaders who scrape a confidence win are finished within a year at most
So why not go this year? Get what support you can from the 2019 coalition of voters who can be revved up to SAVE BREXIT from the remoaners and the judges and the naysayers. Get that done before they get reamed by the CoL disaster. And stymie the rebels by forcing them to toe the line for an election when instead they would be on full attack mode through conference season and beyond.
Remember that the *only* thing of value to Boris Johnson is Boris Johnson. If he thinks the rebellion is done and people won't care about being cold and hungry then yes carry on. But his advisors I assume are pointing out reality. Hence Crosby reappearing.
And Boris is said to favour autumn/winter elections because he thinks Conservative voters are more likely to turn out in bad weather. Thatcher, Major, Cameron and May called late spring, early summer elections.
Positive covid test this morning - it's finally caught up with me. Feel like sh*t too.
Hey ho.
Rest and drink lots of water. Battling through it is really not the best plan.
Thanks David, I'll do that. Helped by the fact that Mrs P. has a bit of sympathy now that she's seen the test result she knows it's not just man flu.
She's off to buy me a tin of Heinz Tomato Soup - nowadays a terrible ultra-processed food, no doubt, but my childhood comfort blanket for every kind of minor sickness :-)
Tinned fruit and custard. It should be available on prescription.
There was a Tory grandee early 20th century who gave a serious amount of his own wedge to pay down the national debt. Sunak should make a one off donation of 50m to Our NHS to make up for the non dom savings
Baldwin? I believe he donated a fifth of his fortune (around £3-4m in today’s money) to a patriotic fund after WWI. He also did it anonymously; the chances of a politician acting virtuously nowadays without vigorously signalling it to the public are minimal.
The Tory candidate in #TivertonandHonitonByElection has produced an 8-page booklet in which she doesn't mention she's a Conservative until page 4. After that, the word Conservative appears just 3 more times. https://twitter.com/neil_merrick/status/1537698465677037574/photo/1
Should spice up any defence-of-Taiwan war games if they build a couple more.
That's a very large target.
It also makes bugger all difference. China can put fighter planes over Taiwan. Many planes. (China, is after all, not that far away....
The purpose of large carriers would be to help deny the theatre to the US navy. They would be some way beyond Taiwan.
How does having a bunch of your fighters on a sinkable runway help?
In the open sea, carriers are great, because your opponent doesn't know where they are. There's an area the size of France and Germany combined and you know there's a football field sized vessel there somewhere... but where?
If you stuff them in the Taiwan straits, they'll be found. And they'll be an expensive, sinkable, runway.
I may be being naive but I assumed in these days of satellite monitoring no aircraft carrier could ever hide.
No, carriers are very hard to find and fix because they are fast. In a 90 minute period they can be anywhere in a 6,000 square mile area from their initial position.
They are also very hard to kill, even once you get past the CSG. In the USS America 2005 SINKEX it took four weeks to sink her!
Informative as ever - thanks! What would we do without our irascible PB defence correspondent?!
I believe that's one of the reasons the U2 is still in service: they can be targeted in space and time much better (and often cheaper) than recon satellites.
There are also some treaty obligations that require wet film imagery rather than digital so the Dragon Lady still has that mission. The US should just pass some legislation to fuck the treaty off if it is inconvenient.
There is the spontenaity issue - back in the USSR days, the Russians used to give their friends a handy timetable for the passes of the US recon satellites. Which were quite few in number, really.
With the advent of multiple civilian photographic satellite constellations - soon to be joined by radar ones - we are entering an era of *constant* global surveillance. We aren't there yet, by a long road, but it is not far off.
@Benpointer get better soon. Best of healing vibes.
The idea of a General Election this year is fanciful nonsense. It would be mass suicide: the Conservative Party equivalent of Jonestown.
If Johnson tried it then the party would eject him as leader in minutes.
They probably know that after this winter's heating bills, and sustained prices above £2 per litre at the pump, they will be out of power for a generation. Plus inflation is going nowhere, and rising interest rates are going to crash the housing market. So better to go to the polls now.
If they announced a substantial cut / total suspension of fuel duty in August, election in September and won a majority of just 1, they would look like geniuses compared to going to the polls in 2023.
It's 1997 in reverse. Instead of "things can only get better" it's "things can only get worse."
^this. The economy is *fucked*. Like once in a generation 1970s fucked. There is no happy ending for any government who has to carry the can through those events, especially when the government is on boostervision and simply denies there is a problem.
We are rapidly approaching the political tipping point. Two major and one minor factors to consider: BREXIT: People swinging into the "this is shit" camp. But still persuadable that its shit only because remoaners / judges / lefties / the EU are to blame. They won't get away with that line of argument in 2024 ECONOMY: Fucked. Going to get more fucked before there is any recovery and all I can see is downside in terms of the economic hardships that will need to be endured afterwards CULTURE: The minor factor. There is only so long they can stoke division with fear of lady cock and forrin refugees. Rwanda is a wedge issue, so make maximum use of it before it becomes clear the policy won't work and was never going to work.
Positive covid test this morning - it's finally caught up with me. Feel like sh*t too.
Hey ho.
Rest and drink lots of water. Battling through it is really not the best plan.
Thanks David, I'll do that. Helped by the fact that Mrs P. has a bit of sympathy now that she's seen the test result she knows it's not just man flu.
She's off to buy me a tin of Heinz Tomato Soup - nowadays a terrible ultra-processed food, no doubt, but my childhood comfort blanket for every kind of minor sickness :-)
Tinned fruit and custard. It should be available on prescription.
Positive covid test this morning - it's finally caught up with me. Feel like sh*t too.
Hey ho.
Rest and drink lots of water. Battling through it is really not the best plan.
Thanks David, I'll do that. Helped by the fact that Mrs P. has a bit of sympathy now that she's seen the test result she knows it's not just man flu.
She's off to buy me a tin of Heinz Tomato Soup - nowadays a terrible ultra-processed food, no doubt, but my childhood comfort blanket for every kind of minor sickness :-)
Hope you get better soon. I had it last week. Two days of feeling a bit crap then fine so not to worry too much.
It didn't seem to matter if I rested or not. It's just a case of the virus working through your body. Was the faintest of faint lines for a while (days 5-7) but cleared up completely day 8.
1. The economic winter is going to brutalise voters 2. The government's ratings will tank both from the economic winter and their MP's "so what?" sneering response to it. 3. Tory rebels haven't gone away, nor have the boulders that weigh Big Dog down stopped landing on top of him 4. History demonstrates that leaders who scrape a confidence win are finished within a year at most
So why not go this year? Get what support you can from the 2019 coalition of voters who can be revved up to SAVE BREXIT from the remoaners and the judges and the naysayers. Get that done before they get reamed by the CoL disaster. And stymie the rebels by forcing them to toe the line for an election when instead they would be on full attack mode through conference season and beyond.
Remember that the *only* thing of value to Boris Johnson is Boris Johnson. If he thinks the rebellion is done and people won't care about being cold and hungry then yes carry on. But his advisors I assume are pointing out reality. Hence Crosby reappearing.
Crosby is fresh from masterminding a total disaster of a campaign in Australia. He's a one-trick pony without a Plan B, who seems keen to repeat the Coalition playbook. Which isn't to say it won't work here.
Crosby's campaign for Theresa May lost her majority even to the political non-colossus that was Jeremy Corbyn.
So why not go this year? Get what support you can from the 2019 coalition of voters who can be revved up to SAVE BREXIT from the remoaners and the judges and the naysayers. Get that done before they get reamed by the CoL disaster. And stymie the rebels by forcing them to toe the line for an election when instead they would be on full attack mode through conference season and beyond.
When you put it like it that, it does actually make sense. It would reset Johnson's tenure in a way that various tory fuckpieces saying "Draw a line under it" and "Move on" on Sky News just can't.
However, it would require vision, courage and strong leadership to do it. These are not qualities being evidenced to excess by Johnson.
There was a Tory grandee early 20th century who gave a serious amount of his own wedge to pay down the national debt. Sunak should make a one off donation of 50m to Our NHS to make up for the non dom savings
Baldwin? I believe he donated a fifth of his fortune (around £3-4m in today’s money) to a patriotic fund after WWI. He also did it anonymously; the chances of a politician acting virtuously nowadays without vigorously signalling it to the public are minimal.
My guess of Peter Stringfellow was way off then.
Though both liked to wear a leopardskin thong I believe..
@Benpointer get better soon. Best of healing vibes.
The idea of a General Election this year is fanciful nonsense. It would be mass suicide: the Conservative Party equivalent of Jonestown.
If Johnson tried it then the party would eject him as leader in minutes.
They probably know that after this winter's heating bills, and sustained prices above £2 per litre at the pump, they will be out of power for a generation. Plus inflation is going nowhere, and rising interest rates are going to crash the housing market. So better to go to the polls now.
If they announced a substantial cut / total suspension of fuel duty in August, election in September and won a majority of just 1, they would look like geniuses compared to going to the polls in 2023.
It's 1997 in reverse. Instead of "things can only get better" it's "things can only get worse."
^this. The economy is *fucked*. Like once in a generation 1970s fucked. There is no happy ending for any government who has to carry the can through those events, especially when the government is on boostervision and simply denies there is a problem.
We are rapidly approaching the political tipping point. Two major and one minor factors to consider: BREXIT: People swinging into the "this is shit" camp. But still persuadable that its shit only because remoaners / judges / lefties / the EU are to blame. They won't get away with that line of argument in 2024 ECONOMY: Fucked. Going to get more fucked before there is any recovery and all I can see is downside in terms of the economic hardships that will need to be endured afterwards CULTURE: The minor factor. There is only so long they can stoke division with fear of lady cock and forrin refugees. Rwanda is a wedge issue, so make maximum use of it before it becomes clear the policy won't work and was never going to work.
Indeed. I have often said that "culture war" issues usually represent "lost arguments"; they are a wedge for a small minority at either end of the spectrum when the vast middle have already taken a "live and let live" stance (which is, I think, the majority default in this country).
Brexiters bemoan the wrong type of brexit. But who is there that the membership could choose to deliver the "right" brexit and that hasn't been involved in the brexit we've got.
@Benpointer get better soon. Best of healing vibes.
The idea of a General Election this year is fanciful nonsense. It would be mass suicide: the Conservative Party equivalent of Jonestown.
If Johnson tried it then the party would eject him as leader in minutes.
They probably know that after this winter's heating bills, and sustained prices above £2 per litre at the pump, they will be out of power for a generation. Plus inflation is going nowhere, and rising interest rates are going to crash the housing market. So better to go to the polls now.
If they announced a substantial cut / total suspension of fuel duty in August, election in September and won a majority of just 1, they would look like geniuses compared to going to the polls in 2023.
It's 1997 in reverse. Instead of "things can only get better" it's "things can only get worse."
^this. The economy is *fucked*. Like once in a generation 1970s fucked. There is no happy ending for any government who has to carry the can through those events, especially when the government is on boostervision and simply denies there is a problem.
We are rapidly approaching the political tipping point. Two major and one minor factors to consider: BREXIT: People swinging into the "this is shit" camp. But still persuadable that its shit only because remoaners / judges / lefties / the EU are to blame. They won't get away with that line of argument in 2024 ECONOMY: Fucked. Going to get more fucked before there is any recovery and all I can see is downside in terms of the economic hardships that will need to be endured afterwards CULTURE: The minor factor. There is only so long they can stoke division with fear of lady cock and forrin refugees. Rwanda is a wedge issue, so make maximum use of it before it becomes clear the policy won't work and was never going to work.
Interesting study. I am boringly in the majority on this. Interesting too that sport was seen as a legitimate exception even by people favouring inclusion by other means.
This was quite telling too:
"the report emphasised that people did not primarily see these issues “through a narrow lens of gender identity”, with discussion broadening out to the fact most people do not like communal changing rooms per se, while the minority who were less comfortable with unisex bathrooms were more worried that men tend to be less hygienic than women in communal toilets, rather than about safety."
Positive covid test this morning - it's finally caught up with me. Feel like sh*t too.
Hey ho.
Rest and drink lots of water. Battling through it is really not the best plan.
Thanks David, I'll do that. Helped by the fact that Mrs P. has a bit of sympathy now that she's seen the test result she knows it's not just man flu.
She's off to buy me a tin of Heinz Tomato Soup - nowadays a terrible ultra-processed food, no doubt, but my childhood comfort blanket for every kind of minor sickness :-)
Hope you get better soon. I had it last week. Two days of feeling a bit crap then fine so not to worry too much.
It didn't seem to matter if I rested or not. It's just a case of the virus working through your body. Was the faintest of faint lines for a while (days 5-7) but cleared up completely day 8.
Interesting, thanks.
I had a negative test on Tuesday, even though I felt crap. The test I did this morning though left a very deep bold T line - no doubts at all. And no surprise tbh.
I don't need to work so I am just putting my feet up and enjoying the weather. Could be a lot worse.
So why not go this year? Get what support you can from the 2019 coalition of voters who can be revved up to SAVE BREXIT from the remoaners and the judges and the naysayers. Get that done before they get reamed by the CoL disaster. And stymie the rebels by forcing them to toe the line for an election when instead they would be on full attack mode through conference season and beyond.
When you put it like it that, it does actually make sense. It would reset Johnson's tenure in a way that various tory fuckpieces saying "Draw a line under it" and "Move on" on Sky News just can't.
However, it would require vision, courage and strong leadership to do it. These are not qualities being evidenced to excess by Johnson.
Alternately it could require cowardice, bravado, absurd self-confidence. Which he has in spades.
"If I wait they may force me out. But out there in the country I am a Golden God. So why not Get Brexit Done again, show everyone how loveable I am again and show the naysayers who the Big Dog really is".
With Crosby saying all this in his ear because if there is an election Crosby gets AUS$$$.
I don't think we're going to be out of the woods in 12 months.
The economy is fundamentally screwed, built on sand by Tory policies that have not been designed to ensure long-term stability.
Yeah, it was called lockdown and furlough funded by printing trillions. It's a bit late to start complaining now.
Not to say others wouldn't have done the same but the sheer scale of fraud and jobs for the boys in for example PPE procurement was staggering. Set up a company on Monday and receive a £100m contract on Tuesday. And then deliver nothing or sub standard products which are likely still sitting in a warehouse somewhere.
Positive covid test this morning - it's finally caught up with me. Feel like sh*t too.
Hey ho.
Rest and drink lots of water. Battling through it is really not the best plan.
Thanks David, I'll do that. Helped by the fact that Mrs P. has a bit of sympathy now that she's seen the test result she knows it's not just man flu.
She's off to buy me a tin of Heinz Tomato Soup - nowadays a terrible ultra-processed food, no doubt, but my childhood comfort blanket for every kind of minor sickness :-)
Tinned fruit and custard. It should be available on prescription.
Stovies, pickled beetroot and cold roast lamb for me.
@Benpointer get better soon. Best of healing vibes.
The idea of a General Election this year is fanciful nonsense. It would be mass suicide: the Conservative Party equivalent of Jonestown.
If Johnson tried it then the party would eject him as leader in minutes.
They probably know that after this winter's heating bills, and sustained prices above £2 per litre at the pump, they will be out of power for a generation. Plus inflation is going nowhere, and rising interest rates are going to crash the housing market. So better to go to the polls now.
If they announced a substantial cut / total suspension of fuel duty in August, election in September and won a majority of just 1, they would look like geniuses compared to going to the polls in 2023.
It's 1997 in reverse. Instead of "things can only get better" it's "things can only get worse."
^this. The economy is *fucked*. Like once in a generation 1970s fucked. There is no happy ending for any government who has to carry the can through those events, especially when the government is on boostervision and simply denies there is a problem.
We are rapidly approaching the political tipping point. Two major and one minor factors to consider: BREXIT: People swinging into the "this is shit" camp. But still persuadable that its shit only because remoaners / judges / lefties / the EU are to blame. They won't get away with that line of argument in 2024 ECONOMY: Fucked. Going to get more fucked before there is any recovery and all I can see is downside in terms of the economic hardships that will need to be endured afterwards CULTURE: The minor factor. There is only so long they can stoke division with fear of lady cock and forrin refugees. Rwanda is a wedge issue, so make maximum use of it before it becomes clear the policy won't work and was never going to work.
Interesting study. I am boringly in the majority on this. Interesting too that sport was seen as a legitimate exception even by people favouring inclusion by other means.
This was quite telling too:
"the report emphasised that people did not primarily see these issues “through a narrow lens of gender identity”, with discussion broadening out to the fact most people do not like communal changing rooms per se, while the minority who were less comfortable with unisex bathrooms were more worried that men tend to be less hygienic than women in communal toilets, rather than about safety."
And more generally, would that we had a government more interested in practical solutions than cultural conflict.
Positive covid test this morning - it's finally caught up with me. Feel like sh*t too.
Hey ho.
Rest and drink lots of water. Battling through it is really not the best plan.
Thanks David, I'll do that. Helped by the fact that Mrs P. has a bit of sympathy now that she's seen the test result she knows it's not just man flu.
She's off to buy me a tin of Heinz Tomato Soup - nowadays a terrible ultra-processed food, no doubt, but my childhood comfort blanket for every kind of minor sickness :-)
Tinned fruit and custard. It should be available on prescription.
Stovies, pickled beetroot and cold roast lamb for me.
Rishi Sunak Approval Rating in Scotland (15 June):
Approve: 26% Disapprove: 46% Net: -20%
What’s the rating by party?
My guess is that SNP supporters as a group have a high disapproval rating for all English politicians regardless of party.
If that is the case then It says something about the SNP supporters rather than the politicians
My guess is 'Scottish' Douglas Ross would rank lower than Rishi with supporters of all parties not SCon. Maybe SCons too..
I like the way PBTories like to claim that being anti-Tory in Scotland, or more generally to be against having your poility and its policies overridden by a different polity, must be anti-English racism when it would be just the same as if it were the Vogons in power in No. 10.
The Tories tried claiming that once, back in I think November 2013 - you could tell it was delbierate because it was rolled out across all the media in the orchestrated way that they had. They reverse ferreted very quickly indeed, because someone must have realised the implicit claim which they were making about themselves.
Comments
But we'll see!
An unethical PM in the UK system can only enrich himself to a limited amount and that can be monitored and constrained.
But the characteristics of risk taking and a willingness to bend the rules may be advantageous if used in the service of the country. In fact an “ethical PM” could r d up being completely legged over by others
So surely we want bad people - appropriately constrained - running the country?
Oooops:
Recent video showing Russian Su-25 aircraft flying just above power lines in Belgorod.
A Russian Su-25 attack aircraft reportedly crashed in Belgorod. According to initial reports, it may have clipped a power line.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1537698120380948481
(May not be the same one afaics)
(Isn't Belgorod in Hithlum?)
Neither am I giving New Labour a free ride, but that is not my point, which was a reaction to @Heathener 's eulogy to Thatcherism.
My guess is that SNP supporters as a group have a high disapproval rating for all English politicians regardless of party.
If that is the case then It says something about the SNP supporters rather than the politicians
A guess is that a win at T and H (which is not impossible) would be stage one of the plan, which of course can be jettisoned at any time. Such a win, given recent by elections and publicity generally would look like a triumph.
And of course if Boris calculates that he will chucked out the Steve Bakers of the party by the end of the year if things go on as they are, it's his only chance of survival.
That also went out over the radio (BBC WS this morning), and quite regularly now the web page article is the same words as the broadcast commentary.
The idea of a General Election this year is fanciful nonsense. It would be mass suicide: the Conservative Party equivalent of Jonestown.
If Johnson tried it then the party would eject him as leader in minutes.
It turned out that it was an old picture from last year, but it shows that the Ukrainians had been practicing the very low-flying stuff.
Edit: piccies here:
https://theaviationist.com/2020/08/29/ukrainian-su-27-flanker-hit-a-road-sign-during-highway-landing-training/
See, for example, Cuba.
https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1537711934992162817
He just supported the strikes, the man is a clown
I said this over a year ago.
The economy is fundamentally screwed, built on sand by Tory policies that have not been designed to ensure long-term stability.
I believe that's one of the reasons the U2 is still in service: they can be targeted in space and time much better (and often cheaper) than recon satellites.
If they announced a substantial cut / total suspension of fuel duty in August, election in September and won a majority of just 1, they would look like geniuses compared to going to the polls in 2023.
It's 1997 in reverse. Instead of "things can only get better" it's "things can only get worse."
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1537059368855912450
'It’s not that I’m not left wing…it’s that we can’t make any change unless we win a general election.'
@wesstreeting is this week’s guest on Full Disclosure with @mrjamesob.
Listen to the full interview tomorrow on Global Player.
It has to be Wes next.
The fact we come from different political sides shows just how big of a problem the Tories have.
Essentially, manufacturing output grew slowly during the 1970s with a sharp rise and fall mid-decade (the Barber boom and bust). It fell sharply in the early 1980s thanks to a strong pound and high interest rates, then grew rapidly before declining again in the early 90s recession before growing strongly again right up to the GFC, when it fell sharply again. It flat lined in the early years of the coalition government then grew again until early 2019. Since then it has essentially been flat apart from a record 31% decline thanks to Covid.
In my opinion governments of all stripes have an okay record of trying to nurture UK manufacturing. The only really stupid and counterproductive policy that has been introduced during this time is Brexit.
LAB: 39% (=)
CON: 33% (=)
LDM: 13% (+1)
GRN: 5% (-1)
SNP: 4% (=)
Via @techneUK, 15-16 June,
Changes w/ 9 June.
BJO please explain
https://twitter.com/DenisMacShane/status/1537712915729489920?s=20&t=QshM9MsSIuGue_Fqa1FCTw
The collapse of the red wall marked the first chapter of the UK's political realignment after Brexit. Is a 'blue wall' in prosperous south about to be the second?
My @ftweekend essay from Esher and Walton https://www.ft.com/content/b51ae7bd-2bb5-4514-81d9-bf58f8eea36e
Okay.
Andy Burnham has been
Blairite
Brownite
Milibandite
Corbynite
Starmerite
Anti-Starmerite.
What does Andy stand for?
https://twitter.com/ConHome/status/1537713249478664192
This is a disaster.
(He should never be anywhere near power after that mess, the little sh*t)
“He stood up in the House of Commons and said, ‘I have been informed that no rules were broken at the parties I didn’t go to’. Then you find out that he was at them, which was a blatant lie to everyone in the country. I can’t trust a single word that comes out of Boris’s mouth from now on.”
You trusted every word before? “No, but I could trust a percentage of them. Now it’s zero trust.”
Some said that, for them, the revelations had tipped the balance against him: “He’s a character, a bit of a geezer in an Eton sort of way, but there’s a fulcrum isn’t there? And I think he’s slightly tipped that fulcrum now. He’s gone from being the loveable rogue to being someone who’s lost credibility”; “The fact that he can’t even brush his hair in the morning has really started to grate on me.”
And fundamentally, this is why Johnson will not win another election. His act is now a negative.
“I’m not particularly keen on Starmer but I think he could get the job done. He’s still very upper class but it’s not the sort of Spitting Image thing we’ve had for the last two years. It’s been like watching the Muppet Show.”
Starmer has got an image problem
Upper class? He's the most working class Labour leader has had for years - and people consider him to be upper class and not Johnson. Astonishing.
“I’m not particularly keen on Starmer but I think he could get the job done. He’s still very upper class but it’s not the sort of Spitting Image thing we’ve had for the last two years. It’s been like watching the Muppet Show.”
“I was frightened of Corbyn, but I’m not frightened of Starmer.”
Significantly, though, he had managed to neutralise the fear of a Labour government that had worked to the Tories’ advantage. “I was frightened of Corbyn, but I’m not frightened of Starmer,” one man in the Devon seat told us – an important point where the prospect of a Labour-Lib Dem coalition could be a central Tory theme at a general election.
Labour to scrap pledge to remove tuition fees.
1. The economic winter is going to brutalise voters
2. The government's ratings will tank both from the economic winter and their MP's "so what?" sneering response to it.
3. Tory rebels haven't gone away, nor have the boulders that weigh Big Dog down stopped landing on top of him
4. History demonstrates that leaders who scrape a confidence win are finished within a year at most
So why not go this year? Get what support you can from the 2019 coalition of voters who can be revved up to SAVE BREXIT from the remoaners and the judges and the naysayers. Get that done before they get reamed by the CoL disaster. And stymie the rebels by forcing them to toe the line for an election when instead they would be on full attack mode through conference season and beyond.
Remember that the *only* thing of value to Boris Johnson is Boris Johnson. If he thinks the rebellion is done and people won't care about being cold and hungry then yes carry on. But his advisors I assume are pointing out reality. Hence Crosby reappearing.
Couldn't be more scathing in his assessment of Boris. Has no doubt the people will chuck him out next GE.
Thinks Rishi blew it with his tax hikes. He thinks they might even go for a remainer over a tax hiker.
We are rapidly approaching the political tipping point. Two major and one minor factors to consider:
BREXIT: People swinging into the "this is shit" camp. But still persuadable that its shit only because remoaners / judges / lefties / the EU are to blame. They won't get away with that line of argument in 2024
ECONOMY: Fucked. Going to get more fucked before there is any recovery and all I can see is downside in terms of the economic hardships that will need to be endured afterwards
CULTURE: The minor factor. There is only so long they can stoke division with fear of lady cock and forrin refugees. Rwanda is a wedge issue, so make maximum use of it before it becomes clear the policy won't work and was never going to work.
The US needs a blue water navy; China doesn't, yet.
I'm not sure my position is as hardcore libertarian as some on this site, but it is very economically dry while being socially liberal.
In other words there is absolutely nothing for me in the red meat for the red wall, culture wars crap that the Tories seem to rely on these days.
For me, it's always about the economy, and giving people as much freedom as possible.
That means there is often something of a faustian pact between people like me and the Conservative party, i.e. "I will vote for you on the basis that you are going to be better for the economy than the other guy".
I reckon there are a lot of people out there who aren't natural small-c "conservatives" but who vote Conservative anyway because "you can't trust Labour on the economy."
Well, I put it to you that the Conservatives are busy shredding what little remains of their reputation on the economy and after failing to control the cost of living crisis, what little reputation they have left will be in tatters.
I also agree with Max_PB that the Conservatives have run the economy for the benefit of their pensioner client vote to the detriment of working age people, and that needs to change.
At the next election I will vote for whoever is better on the economy. I'm yet to see what Labour propose, but at the minute it's hard to see them mis-managing things worse than the Conservatives.
She's off to buy me a tin of Heinz Tomato Soup - nowadays a terrible ultra-processed food, no doubt, but my childhood comfort blanket for every kind of minor sickness :-)
Which isn't to say it won't work here.
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2022/06/hes-a-bit-of-a-geezer-in-an-eton-sort-of-way-my-by-election-focus-groups-in-wakefield-and-tiverton-honiton/#more-16761
With the advent of multiple civilian photographic satellite constellations - soon to be joined by radar ones - we are entering an era of *constant* global surveillance. We aren't there yet, by a long road, but it is not far off.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jun/16/britons-not-bitterly-polarised-over-trans-equality-research-finds
Perhaps it should.
It didn't seem to matter if I rested or not. It's just a case of the virus working through your body. Was the faintest of faint lines for a while (days 5-7) but cleared up completely day 8.
However, it would require vision, courage and strong leadership to do it. These are not qualities being evidenced to excess by Johnson.
Con: 33% (+1 from 8-9 June)
Lab: 39% (n/c)
Lib Dem: 10% (-1)
Green: 6% (-1)
SNP: 4% (-1)
Reform UK: 4% (+1)
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/06/17/voting-intention-con-33-lab-39-15-16-june?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=voting_intention https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1537727492420771842/photo/1
This was quite telling too:
"the report emphasised that people did not primarily see these issues “through a narrow lens of gender identity”, with discussion broadening out to the fact most people do not like communal changing rooms per se, while the minority who were less comfortable with unisex bathrooms were more worried that men tend to be less hygienic than women in communal toilets, rather than about safety."
I had a negative test on Tuesday, even though I felt crap. The test I did this morning though left a very deep bold T line - no doubts at all. And no surprise tbh.
I don't need to work so I am just putting my feet up and enjoying the weather. Could be a lot worse.
"If I wait they may force me out. But out there in the country I am a Golden God. So why not Get Brexit Done again, show everyone how loveable I am again and show the naysayers who the Big Dog really is".
With Crosby saying all this in his ear because if there is an election Crosby gets AUS$$$.
The newer Tory vote in purple wall areas may be more inclined to abstention.
The Tories tried claiming that once, back in I think November 2013 - you could tell it was delbierate because it was rolled out across all the media in the orchestrated way that they had. They reverse ferreted very quickly indeed, because someone must have realised the implicit claim which they were making about themselves.