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Sunak could be on the way back – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited June 20 in General
Sunak could be on the way back – politicalbetting.com

Highest approval rating for Rishi Sunak since being fined by Met Police and since his wife's tax status was leaked.Rishi Sunak Approval Rating (15 June):Approve: 32% (+3)Disapprove: 39% (-1)Net: -7% (+4)Changes +/- 12 June pic.twitter.com/GEEXmJyuAU

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Comments

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,216
    Test
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 276
    On the last post's topic: Years ago, I recall reading a study of American voters, and their tolerance for ethical problems in the candidates they supported. It turned out -- assuming I am remembering this correctly -- that a fairly large number of voters saw ethical problems as just another issue, to be weighed against the others. That helps explain the support for candidates like the rascal king: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Michael_Curley

    So a voter might agree that Curley was a crook, but still vote for him, thinking that Curley was right on public housing, taxing rich Protestants, finding a job for a relative, and so on.

    (My apologies for posting this here, but I just now remembered, however vaguely, the study.)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,831

    Star quality? In spades? Really?

    Or a thin-skined popinjay whom the opposition will be delighted to fight?

    Really. That is why Number 10 worked to undermine Rishi, who is still far from his previous status as heir presumptive.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 42,827
    We are facing another 12 months or so of high inflation, rising interest rates, low growth, strikes and wage pressures, difficult public sector accounts and a severe need to say no to lot of popular things. It is not a great time to be in the Treasury and it will certainly test the mettle of the incumbant severely. If he survives that intact he will indeed be a contender. If.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,634

    Star quality? In spades? Really?

    Or a thin-skined popinjay whom the opposition will be delighted to fight?

    Or perhaps a mixture of both.
    With rather less popinjay than his boss.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 2,236
    Sunak is good at PR and keeping his head down. Looking at the situation a bit more strategically though, the first goal of the next leader should be to restore economic credibility. He is not well placed to do that. Javid or Hunt would be better options.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,769
    Rishi Sunak Approval Rating in Scotland (15 June):

    Approve: 26%
    Disapprove: 46%
    Net: -20%
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,769
    DavidL said:

    We are facing another 12 months or so of high inflation, rising interest rates, low growth, strikes and wage pressures, difficult public sector accounts and a severe need to say no to lot of popular things. It is not a great time to be in the Treasury and it will certainly test the mettle of the incumbant severely. If he survives that intact he will indeed be a contender. If.

    12 months?!?

    12 years would be on the optimistic side
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,831
    edited June 17
    Peter Oborne on how Boris Johnson's ruthless drive for power is dismantling democracy in the interest of the super-rich
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BAXqrUN1qEo (10 minutes long)

    PB Tories should skip to the second half where Oborne attacks Keir Starmer as worse and Tony Blair as having started it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 42,827

    DavidL said:

    We are facing another 12 months or so of high inflation, rising interest rates, low growth, strikes and wage pressures, difficult public sector accounts and a severe need to say no to lot of popular things. It is not a great time to be in the Treasury and it will certainly test the mettle of the incumbant severely. If he survives that intact he will indeed be a contender. If.

    12 months?!?

    12 years would be on the optimistic side
    Inflation will likely peak later this year in Q4. It will then remain at a much more elevated level than we have been used to, in my view. I think the Monetary Policy forecast of it falling back to 2% or even lower yesterday was wildly optimistic. But it will not be at the crisis levels of this year.

    So far there has been no evidence of the loss of large numbers of jobs such as have been seen in previous recessions. Indeed we still have a fairly acute labour shortage.

    As inflation falls again wages will return to real growth. There will be a fair bit of catching up but again the worst will be over.

    If the Ukraine war comes to some sort of an end these things will happen faster but that is probably at least 12 months away.

    Public finances have been shot to pieces by the cost of Covid. Recovering them will be a long term project which will keep taxes higher and spending lower than it otherwise would have been.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 17,047
    There was a Tory grandee early 20th century who gave a serious amount of his own wedge to pay down the national debt. Sunak should make a one off donation of 50m to Our NHS to make up for the non dom savings
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,563
    Good morning, everyone.

    Content if Sunak's odds tumble once more, still more room to lay.

    Speaking of comebacks, it seems Dragon's Dogma 2 has been announced (no date, so far as I know).
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,895
    The economy is Sunakered.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 2,716
    Jonathan said:

    The economy is Sunakered.

    Soon knackered if Sunak erred
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,177
    Good morning everyone.

    Have we seen the results of last night's council by-elections yet? Britain Elects site seems to be unavailable.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,851
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    We are facing another 12 months or so of high inflation, rising interest rates, low growth, strikes and wage pressures, difficult public sector accounts and a severe need to say no to lot of popular things. It is not a great time to be in the Treasury and it will certainly test the mettle of the incumbant severely. If he survives that intact he will indeed be a contender. If.

    12 months?!?

    12 years would be on the optimistic side
    Inflation will likely peak later this year in Q4. It will then remain at a much more elevated level than we have been used to, in my view. I think the Monetary Policy forecast of it falling back to 2% or even lower yesterday was wildly optimistic. But it will not be at the crisis levels of this year.

    So far there has been no evidence of the loss of large numbers of jobs such as have been seen in previous recessions. Indeed we still have a fairly acute labour shortage.

    As inflation falls again wages will return to real growth. There will be a fair bit of catching up but again the worst will be over.

    If the Ukraine war comes to some sort of an end these things will happen faster but that is probably at least 12 months away.

    Public finances have been shot to pieces by the cost of Covid. Recovering them will be a long term project which will keep taxes higher and spending lower than it otherwise would have been.
    Think 12 months is a bit optimistic David, especially as it looks like the current deadbeats have at least 2 more years to make an even bigger mess of things.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 1,147
    IshmaelZ said:

    There was a Tory grandee early 20th century who gave a serious amount of his own wedge to pay down the national debt. Sunak should make a one off donation of 50m to Our NHS to make up for the non dom savings

    Or he could invite Boris round to his country pad and slowly burn it in front of him to show him how nice it is to have money so Boris realises he needs to quit to start getting rich.

    A much better use of 50m to the country.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,851

    Good morning everyone.

    Have we seen the results of last night's council by-elections yet? Britain Elects site seems to be unavailable.

    Morning OKC, hope you are feeling a bit better these days.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,831

    Good morning everyone.

    Have we seen the results of last night's council by-elections yet? Britain Elects site seems to be unavailable.

    https://medium.com/britainelects is up but not updated; likewise their Twitter account. Our previous thread might show something; Con gain somewhere?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 32,326
    boulay said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    There was a Tory grandee early 20th century who gave a serious amount of his own wedge to pay down the national debt. Sunak should make a one off donation of 50m to Our NHS to make up for the non dom savings

    Or he could invite Boris round to his country pad and slowly burn it in front of him to show him how nice it is to have money so Boris realises he needs to quit to start getting rich.

    A much better use of 50m to the country.
    Removing money from the economy is an effective means of fiscal tightening to fight inflation.

    Every patriotic Brit should burn a few notes each day to aid the economy.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 48,728

    DavidL said:

    We are facing another 12 months or so of high inflation, rising interest rates, low growth, strikes and wage pressures, difficult public sector accounts and a severe need to say no to lot of popular things. It is not a great time to be in the Treasury and it will certainly test the mettle of the incumbant severely. If he survives that intact he will indeed be a contender. If.

    12 months?!?

    12 years would be on the optimistic side
    I'm sorry to hear things are so bad in Sweden. Have you considered returning to the UK?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,177
    edited June 17
    malcolmg said:

    Good morning everyone.

    Have we seen the results of last night's council by-elections yet? Britain Elects site seems to be unavailable.

    Morning OKC, hope you are feeling a bit better these days.
    Thanks Malcolm. Becoming accustomed to my situation and hoping for a hospital appointment very soon. GP was quite optimistic! That's about the appointment; not sure about recovery.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 17,047
    Foxy said:

    boulay said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    There was a Tory grandee early 20th century who gave a serious amount of his own wedge to pay down the national debt. Sunak should make a one off donation of 50m to Our NHS to make up for the non dom savings

    Or he could invite Boris round to his country pad and slowly burn it in front of him to show him how nice it is to have money so Boris realises he needs to quit to start getting rich.

    A much better use of 50m to the country.
    Removing money from the economy is an effective means of fiscal tightening to fight inflation.

    Every patriotic Brit should burn a few notes each day to aid the economy.
    In front of a homeless person obv
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,082
    IshmaelZ said:

    In front of a homeless person obv

    Homeless Ukrainian refugee for maximum points
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,156

    Star quality? In spades? Really?

    He has zero 'star quality'

    Crap speaker, dull as ditchwater and out of touch.

    The only star appeal he has is to the kind of tory constituency faithful who salivate at him dropping in by helicopter. For normal people in the rest of the country?

    Zero.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 17,047
    Scott_xP said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    In front of a homeless person obv

    Homeless Ukrainian refugee for maximum points
    I'd be careful, any Ukrainian who has made it here past Priti has probably got a superpower or 2
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,156
    edited June 17
    @Foxy 's point is of course a good one, despite the inflammatory (hoho) finale.

    Back in the days when inflation was a thing we all obsessed about the PSBR: the Public Sector Borrowing Requirement and M1, M2, M3 etc.. Getting inflation under control during Thatcherism, and her global followers, was predominantly about restricting the money supply.

    We've been lulled into an alternate way of thinking because inflation vanished.

    Unfortunately the last thing you need right now is a Prime Minister who believes it's fine to stick his personal and public debt onto the credit card.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 17,047
    Heathener said:

    Star quality? In spades? Really?

    He has zero 'star quality'

    Crap speaker, dull as ditchwater and out of touch.

    The only star appeal he has is to the kind of tory constituency faithful who salivate at him dropping in by helicopter. For normal people in the rest of the country?

    Zero.
    Some astronomers classify brown dwarfs as stars...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,563
    F1: pissing it down with the potential for tornadoes in Montreal.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,082
    “David Davis told Jack (Blanchard) it could take a decade to solve the Irish border crisis created by Brexit”.

    Brilliant. Just brilliant.
    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1537692783246467072/photo/1
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,831
    Heathener said:

    @Foxy 's point is of course a good one, despite the inflammatory (hoho) finale.

    Back in the days when inflation was a thing we all obsessed about the PSBR: the Public Sector Borrowing Requirement and M1, M2, M3 etc.. Getting inflation under control during Thatcherism, and her global followers, was predominantly about restricting the money supply.

    We've been lulled into an alternate way of thinking because inflation vanished.

    Unfortunately the last thing you need right now is a Prime Minister who believes it's fine to stick his personal and public debt onto the credit card.

    Didn't Mrs Thatcher leave office with inflation higher than when she took over?

    In any case, the problems now are due to supply side shocks with China periodically going off-grid and the Ukraine kerfuffle hitting gas, food and other commodity supplies.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,831
    Huzzah for Rishi. My bank has just texted to say our beloved Chancellor has stuffed £150 into my account overnight.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,354
    Max temperature here mid-day today of 16º while down south it's 30º. There must be a happy medium somewhere.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,634
    boulay said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    There was a Tory grandee early 20th century who gave a serious amount of his own wedge to pay down the national debt. Sunak should make a one off donation of 50m to Our NHS to make up for the non dom savings

    Or he could invite Boris round to his country pad and slowly burn it in front of him to show him how nice it is to have money so Boris realises he needs to quit to start getting rich.

    A much better use of 50m to the country.
    Around, rather than in front of, would be more effective ?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,503
    edited June 17

    When I ran a business during the 70s' and 80's, I would have welcomed a Bank Rate of 1.25%!

    On the last post's topic: Years ago, I recall reading a study of American voters, and their tolerance for ethical problems in the candidates they supported. It turned out -- assuming I am remembering this correctly -- that a fairly large number of voters saw ethical problems as just another issue, to be weighed against the others. That helps explain the support for candidates like the rascal king: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Michael_Curley

    So a voter might agree that Curley was a crook, but still vote for him, thinking that Curley was right on public housing, taxing rich Protestants, finding a job for a relative, and so on.

    (My apologies for posting this here, but I just now remembered, however vaguely, the study.)

    No need to apologise at all - an interesting and relevant comment.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,634

    Good morning, everyone.

    Content if Sunak's odds tumble once more, still more room to lay.

    Speaking of comebacks, it seems Dragon's Dogma 2 has been announced (no date, so far as I know).

    Speaking of Dragon's dogma.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/LBC/status/1537536302840696838
    'Unconscious incompetence, hubris by the bucketload, the lack of the ability to tell the truth...'

    Former Dragon Theo Paphitis lists the reasons why he wouldn't let Boris Johnson run one of his companies.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 27,307

    Heathener said:

    @Foxy 's point is of course a good one, despite the inflammatory (hoho) finale.

    Back in the days when inflation was a thing we all obsessed about the PSBR: the Public Sector Borrowing Requirement and M1, M2, M3 etc.. Getting inflation under control during Thatcherism, and her global followers, was predominantly about restricting the money supply.

    We've been lulled into an alternate way of thinking because inflation vanished.

    Unfortunately the last thing you need right now is a Prime Minister who believes it's fine to stick his personal and public debt onto the credit card.

    Didn't Mrs Thatcher leave office with inflation higher than when she took over?

    In any case, the problems now are due to supply side shocks with China periodically going off-grid and the Ukraine kerfuffle hitting gas, food and other commodity supplies.
    Infinite cheap labour and year-on-year cheaper consumer goods *promised* to hold inflation down.

    Particularly since housing costs aren't real inflation - no, Sir.

    "The Gods of the Copybook Headings" are merciless.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,156

    Heathener said:

    @Foxy 's point is of course a good one, despite the inflammatory (hoho) finale.

    Back in the days when inflation was a thing we all obsessed about the PSBR: the Public Sector Borrowing Requirement and M1, M2, M3 etc.. Getting inflation under control during Thatcherism, and her global followers, was predominantly about restricting the money supply.

    We've been lulled into an alternate way of thinking because inflation vanished.

    Unfortunately the last thing you need right now is a Prime Minister who believes it's fine to stick his personal and public debt onto the credit card.

    Didn't Mrs Thatcher leave office with inflation higher than when she took over?

    In any case, the problems now are due to supply side shocks with China periodically going off-grid and the Ukraine kerfuffle hitting gas, food and other commodity supplies.
    Not totally DJL. We have also let public spending rip: Sunak and Johnson have at times been full-on socialist in their approach. And there's Brexit. It's a triple whammy for the UK.

    That's why we have the highest inflation in the G7.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,460

    Good morning everyone.

    Have we seen the results of last night's council by-elections yet? Britain Elects site seems to be unavailable.

    Tory hold in Rother; Labour holds in Warwick and Sunderland; Tory took the previously independent seat in Wyre.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,563
    Mr. W, I'd argue 16C is the happy medium.

    Mr. B, the first was a surprisingly good game. Absolutely nailed combat.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 33,476
    edited June 17
    IshmaelZ said:

    There was a Tory grandee early 20th century who gave a serious amount of his own wedge to pay down the national debt. Sunak should make a one off donation of 50m to Our NHS to make up for the non dom savings

    Baldwin? I believe he donated a fifth of his fortune (around £3-4m in today’s money) to a patriotic fund after WWI. He also did it anonymously; the chances of a politician acting virtuously nowadays without vigorously signalling it to the public are minimal.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,156
    edited June 17
    And re. Maggie ... no not really. Here is her inflation in an easily viewed graph. The early spike was partly because of inflationary pressures in the pipeline, partly because within days of taking office she gave police and armed forces a whopping pay rise, and partly because controlling the wildly out of control PSBR took many months of hard pruning.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22070491

    I'm not an advocate of Margaret Thatcher, even though I consider her the greatest PM of my lifetime by a country mile. She had flaws and she could come across as cruel and inhumane with many of her hardline and intransigent policies. Her belief in no state intervention led to much of British industry going to the wall. She was right to curb union excesses though: the hard Left had crippled this country.

    She was a remarkable PM nonetheless who undoubtedly changed this country and, love or loathe her, Britain went from the sick man of Europe to a prosperous nation.

    She was a giant. The more so compared to the shit-show today.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,831
    Heathener said:

    And re. Maggie ... no not really. Here is her inflation in an easily viewed graph. The early spike was partly because of inflationary pressures in the pipeline, partly because within days of taking office she gave police and armed forces a whopping pay rise, and partly because controlling the wildly out of control PSBR took many months of hard pruning.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22070491

    I'm not an advocate of Margaret Thatcher, even though I consider her the greatest PM of my lifetime by a country mile. She had flaws and she could come across as cruel and inhumane with many of her hardline and intransigent policies. Her belief in no state intervention led to much of British industry going to the wall. She was right to curb union excesses though: the hard Left had crippled this country. She was a remarkable PM nonetheless who undoubtedly changed this country and love or loathe her, Britain went from the sick man of Europe to a prosperous nation.

    She was still a giant. The more so compared to the shit-show today.

    The early spike in inflation might have been partly due to the Thatcher government doubling VAT.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,634
    One for @Dura_Ace

    China Launches First Aircraft Carrier Which Rivals U.S. Navy’s
    https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/06/china-launches-first-aircraft-carrier-which-rivals-u-s-navys/

    Should spice up any defence-of-Taiwan war games if they build a couple more.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,563
    Mr. B, shades of dreadnought competitions in the early 20th century?

    Or Rome fluking their way to a washed up Carthaginian trireme they could copy for the First Punic War?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,082
    Less than a week to go until polling day in Tiverton and Honiton - here’s the link to last night’s only public hustings. School funding (ie rebuilding Tivvy High School), Rwanda, the PM’s character among the issues generating most heat. https://twitter.com/our_tivvy_high/status/1537359299931910144
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,945

    Good morning everyone.

    Have we seen the results of last night's council by-elections yet? Britain Elects site seems to be unavailable.

    Here.

    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/16164/local-council-elections-deferred-election
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 70,237
    Foxy said:

    boulay said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    There was a Tory grandee early 20th century who gave a serious amount of his own wedge to pay down the national debt. Sunak should make a one off donation of 50m to Our NHS to make up for the non dom savings

    Or he could invite Boris round to his country pad and slowly burn it in front of him to show him how nice it is to have money so Boris realises he needs to quit to start getting rich.

    A much better use of 50m to the country.
    Removing money from the economy is an effective means of fiscal tightening to fight inflation.

    Every patriotic Brit should burn a few notes each day to aid the economy.
    It's gone down, but people losing hard drives and forgetting keys to their bitcoin is one of the factors in it's (still high) nominal value.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,156
    Margaret Thatcher was also honest, with a moral compass that pointed true north.

    She would have fired Boris Johnson not just from her cabinet but from parliament and probably the party.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,934
    Your heart bleeds...

    "Frederick Barclay ‘terrified’ of jail after judge rules he must stand trial"

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/jun/16/frederick-barclay-judge-rules-he-must-stand-trial-divorce
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,945

    Heathener said:

    And re. Maggie ... no not really. Here is her inflation in an easily viewed graph. The early spike was partly because of inflationary pressures in the pipeline, partly because within days of taking office she gave police and armed forces a whopping pay rise, and partly because controlling the wildly out of control PSBR took many months of hard pruning.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22070491

    I'm not an advocate of Margaret Thatcher, even though I consider her the greatest PM of my lifetime by a country mile. She had flaws and she could come across as cruel and inhumane with many of her hardline and intransigent policies. Her belief in no state intervention led to much of British industry going to the wall. She was right to curb union excesses though: the hard Left had crippled this country. She was a remarkable PM nonetheless who undoubtedly changed this country and love or loathe her, Britain went from the sick man of Europe to a prosperous nation.

    She was still a giant. The more so compared to the shit-show today.

    The early spike in inflation might have been partly due to the Thatcher government doubling VAT.
    Fascinating charts. Unemployment remained stubbornly high.
    And interest rates only briefly dropped below 10% during her tenure. Much higher for most of it. Quite remarkable when some folk were moaning about 1.25% yesterday.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,205
    Heathener said:

    And re. Maggie ... no not really. Here is her inflation in an easily viewed graph. The early spike was partly because of inflationary pressures in the pipeline, partly because within days of taking office she gave police and armed forces a whopping pay rise, and partly because controlling the wildly out of control PSBR took many months of hard pruning.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22070491

    I'm not an advocate of Margaret Thatcher, even though I consider her the greatest PM of my lifetime by a country mile. She had flaws and she could come across as cruel and inhumane with many of her hardline and intransigent policies. Her belief in no state intervention led to much of British industry going to the wall. She was right to curb union excesses though: the hard Left had crippled this country. She was a remarkable PM nonetheless who undoubtedly changed this country and love or loathe her, Britain went from the sick man of Europe to a prosperous nation.

    She was a giant. The more so compared to the shit-show today.

    Good morning

    Thatcher and Blair look like giants compared to our present leaders and I simply do not understand why conservative mps still wait to act and remove Boris

    However, I am not at all sure that anyone in the conservative or labour party or indeed any politician would be able to withstand the unpopularity that comes with the enormous economic crisis engulfing the country with most everyone becoming poorer, though it is the duty of all politicians to protect the poor, vulnerable and low paid
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,156

    Heathener said:

    And re. Maggie ... no not really. Here is her inflation in an easily viewed graph. The early spike was partly because of inflationary pressures in the pipeline, partly because within days of taking office she gave police and armed forces a whopping pay rise, and partly because controlling the wildly out of control PSBR took many months of hard pruning.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22070491

    I'm not an advocate of Margaret Thatcher, even though I consider her the greatest PM of my lifetime by a country mile. She had flaws and she could come across as cruel and inhumane with many of her hardline and intransigent policies. Her belief in no state intervention led to much of British industry going to the wall. She was right to curb union excesses though: the hard Left had crippled this country. She was a remarkable PM nonetheless who undoubtedly changed this country and love or loathe her, Britain went from the sick man of Europe to a prosperous nation.

    She was a giant. The more so compared to the shit-show today.

    Good morning

    Thatcher and Blair look like giants compared to our present leaders and I simply do not understand why conservative mps still wait to act and remove Boris

    However, I am not at all sure that anyone in the conservative or labour party or indeed any politician would be able to withstand the unpopularity that comes with the enormous economic crisis engulfing the country with most everyone becoming poorer, though it is the duty of all politicians to protect the poor, vulnerable and low paid
    Good morning Big G.

    And agreed.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,988
    The last Redfield poll had Starmer preferred PM over Sunak 41% to 31% but preferred PM over Johnson only 38% to 33% which would suggest there is little point the Tories swapping Johnson with Sunak as leader

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1536403036070887425?s=20&t=13H0MSClGTTxo8ZxiUAakg

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1536393038569910274?s=20&t=13H0MSClGTTxo8ZxiUAakg
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,503
    Scott_xP said:

    Less than a week to go until polling day in Tiverton and Honiton - here’s the link to last night’s only public hustings. School funding (ie rebuilding Tivvy High School), Rwanda, the PM’s character among the issues generating most heat. https://twitter.com/our_tivvy_high/status/1537359299931910144

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/17/helen-hurford-tiverton-honiton-candidate-declines-to-say-if-boris-johnson-trustworthy

    'Asked, finally, if she was comfortable going into a parliamentary party led by Johnson, she replied: “I’m comfortable representing Tiverton and Honiton as their MP with the Conservatives, with a prime minister who has once again, for the third time, been shown support by the majority of the party. That is what I will be going for. Everything else has happened. I’m looking forwards to the future.

    “I don’t want to play party politics. I don’t want to be drawn into things that have happened. I want to be talking about what I can deliver for Tiverton and Honiton.”'

    Funny that, as she's not standing as an independent ... obviously one of those people on the verge of becoming independents who are Tories in sheepskin.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,591
    Sunak has one quality that none of the other vegetables have. He's managed to look apart from the Johnson clique. In the end this could well prove decisive.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 9,475
    Nigelb said:

    One for @Dura_Ace

    China Launches First Aircraft Carrier Which Rivals U.S. Navy’s
    https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/06/china-launches-first-aircraft-carrier-which-rivals-u-s-navys/

    Should spice up any defence-of-Taiwan war games if they build a couple more.

    Not nuclear power though which highly constrains aviation fuel bunkerage and hence sortie generation rate but they are getting there.

    Nimitz/Ford/CDG can carry 3 million+ gallons of JP-5 because they don't need to have any fuel for the ship's propulsion.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 70,237
    Nigelb said:

    One for @Dura_Ace

    China Launches First Aircraft Carrier Which Rivals U.S. Navy’s
    https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/06/china-launches-first-aircraft-carrier-which-rivals-u-s-navys/

    Should spice up any defence-of-Taiwan war games if they build a couple more.

    Taiwan looks difficult to take to me with the forests, mountains and dense urban enviroments. No easy deserts to roll armour over for the chinese.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 45,383
    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    There was a Tory grandee early 20th century who gave a serious amount of his own wedge to pay down the national debt. Sunak should make a one off donation of 50m to Our NHS to make up for the non dom savings

    Baldwin? I believe he donated a fifth of his fortune (around £3-4m in today’s money) to a patriotic fund after WWI. He also did it anonymously; the chances of a politician acting virtuously nowadays without vigorously signalling it to the public are minimal.
    Almost. He calculated the profit his ironworks had made from WW1 and bought government bonds (to the tune of £120,000) and then cancelled them in his capacity as Financial Secretary to the Treasury. He also wrote semi-anonymously to the Times (signed FST) saying what he had done in the hope it would encourage others to do the same (it didn’t).

    He said he very nearly grabbed the bills back when put in the furnace - but he didn’t.

    He died in near poverty, incidentally.
    Near poverty is wonderfully vague.

    "My son, when viewed from a certain angle, looks near Byronic"
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 33,476
    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    There was a Tory grandee early 20th century who gave a serious amount of his own wedge to pay down the national debt. Sunak should make a one off donation of 50m to Our NHS to make up for the non dom savings

    Baldwin? I believe he donated a fifth of his fortune (around £3-4m in today’s money) to a patriotic fund after WWI. He also did it anonymously; the chances of a politician acting virtuously nowadays without vigorously signalling it to the public are minimal.
    Almost. He calculated the profit his ironworks had made from WW1 and bought government bonds (to the tune of £120,000) and then cancelled them in his capacity as Financial Secretary to the Treasury. He also wrote semi-anonymously to the Times (signed FST) saying what he had done in the hope it would encourage others to do the same (it didn’t).

    He said he very nearly grabbed the bills back when put in the furnace - but he didn’t.

    He died in near poverty, incidentally.
    Near poverty is wonderfully vague.

    "My son, when viewed from a certain angle, looks near Byronic"
    OGH is forever saying that.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 6,012

    Heathener said:

    And re. Maggie ... no not really. Here is her inflation in an easily viewed graph. The early spike was partly because of inflationary pressures in the pipeline, partly because within days of taking office she gave police and armed forces a whopping pay rise, and partly because controlling the wildly out of control PSBR took many months of hard pruning.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22070491

    I'm not an advocate of Margaret Thatcher, even though I consider her the greatest PM of my lifetime by a country mile. She had flaws and she could come across as cruel and inhumane with many of her hardline and intransigent policies. Her belief in no state intervention led to much of British industry going to the wall. She was right to curb union excesses though: the hard Left had crippled this country. She was a remarkable PM nonetheless who undoubtedly changed this country and love or loathe her, Britain went from the sick man of Europe to a prosperous nation.

    She was a giant. The more so compared to the shit-show today.

    Good morning

    Thatcher and Blair look like giants compared to our present leaders and I simply do not understand why conservative mps still wait to act and remove Boris

    However, I am not at all sure that anyone in the conservative or labour party or indeed any politician would be able to withstand the unpopularity that comes with the enormous economic crisis engulfing the country with most everyone becoming poorer, though it is the duty of all politicians to protect the poor, vulnerable and low paid
    I'm pretty sure that your second paragraph is part of the answer to the first. Anyone taking over today will have the coming hangover on their CV. Much shrewder to let Johnson take the hit for that, and take over just in time to take credit for the green shoots that will eventually sprout.

    And at this point, there's not much to be done policy-wise. Nothing acceptable to the Conservative Party, anyway.

    Strap yourself in, it's going to get bumpy, and we have a terrible PM in place.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 45,383
    Nigelb said:

    One for @Dura_Ace

    China Launches First Aircraft Carrier Which Rivals U.S. Navy’s
    https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/06/china-launches-first-aircraft-carrier-which-rivals-u-s-navys/

    Should spice up any defence-of-Taiwan war games if they build a couple more.

    That's a very large target.

    It also makes bugger all difference. China can put fighter planes over Taiwan. Many planes. (China, is after all, not that far away.)

    But invading over 150 miles of ocean, towards a well armed and well equiped country, and where the easy beaches are on the far side of the island...

    Well. That's the tough part.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,895

    Heathener said:

    And re. Maggie ... no not really. Here is her inflation in an easily viewed graph. The early spike was partly because of inflationary pressures in the pipeline, partly because within days of taking office she gave police and armed forces a whopping pay rise, and partly because controlling the wildly out of control PSBR took many months of hard pruning.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22070491

    I'm not an advocate of Margaret Thatcher, even though I consider her the greatest PM of my lifetime by a country mile. She had flaws and she could come across as cruel and inhumane with many of her hardline and intransigent policies. Her belief in no state intervention led to much of British industry going to the wall. She was right to curb union excesses though: the hard Left had crippled this country. She was a remarkable PM nonetheless who undoubtedly changed this country and love or loathe her, Britain went from the sick man of Europe to a prosperous nation.

    She was a giant. The more so compared to the shit-show today.

    Good morning

    Thatcher and Blair look like giants compared to our present leaders and I simply do not understand why conservative mps still wait to act and remove Boris

    However, I am not at all sure that anyone in the conservative or labour party or indeed any politician would be able to withstand the unpopularity that comes with the enormous economic crisis engulfing the country with most everyone becoming poorer, though it is the duty of all politicians to protect the poor, vulnerable and low paid
    Fixing this mess will indeed take many years and require political bravery. We cannot start fixing it until Boris goes. He is a big part of the problem. As is his tired and confused party.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 45,383

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    There was a Tory grandee early 20th century who gave a serious amount of his own wedge to pay down the national debt. Sunak should make a one off donation of 50m to Our NHS to make up for the non dom savings

    Baldwin? I believe he donated a fifth of his fortune (around £3-4m in today’s money) to a patriotic fund after WWI. He also did it anonymously; the chances of a politician acting virtuously nowadays without vigorously signalling it to the public are minimal.
    Almost. He calculated the profit his ironworks had made from WW1 and bought government bonds (to the tune of £120,000) and then cancelled them in his capacity as Financial Secretary to the Treasury. He also wrote semi-anonymously to the Times (signed FST) saying what he had done in the hope it would encourage others to do the same (it didn’t).

    He said he very nearly grabbed the bills back when put in the furnace - but he didn’t.

    He died in near poverty, incidentally.
    Near poverty is wonderfully vague.

    "My son, when viewed from a certain angle, looks near Byronic"
    OGH is forever saying that.
    I have a brother???
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,895
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    One for @Dura_Ace

    China Launches First Aircraft Carrier Which Rivals U.S. Navy’s
    https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/06/china-launches-first-aircraft-carrier-which-rivals-u-s-navys/

    Should spice up any defence-of-Taiwan war games if they build a couple more.

    That's a very large target.

    It also makes bugger all difference. China can put fighter planes over Taiwan. Many planes. (China, is after all, not that far away.)

    But invading over 150 miles of ocean, towards a well armed and well equiped country, and where the easy beaches are on the far side of the island...

    Well. That's the tough part.
    Reminds me of Germany and the UK building dreadnoughts.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 45,383
    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    In front of a homeless person obv

    Homeless Ukrainian refugee for maximum points
    I'd be careful, any Ukrainian who has made it here past Priti has probably got a superpower or 2
    I wouldn't describe the ability to donate to the Conservative Party as a "superpower".
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,634
    Yesterday afternoon, 🇷🇺's large ammo depot in Khrustalnyi, Luhansk oblast, was destroyed

    The facility hidden at a factory more than 50 km behind the frontline caught fire after an alleged 🇺🇦missile strike & detonations lasted well into the night.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1537694208030654464
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,460
    edited June 17
    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Less than a week to go until polling day in Tiverton and Honiton - here’s the link to last night’s only public hustings. School funding (ie rebuilding Tivvy High School), Rwanda, the PM’s character among the issues generating most heat. https://twitter.com/our_tivvy_high/status/1537359299931910144

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/17/helen-hurford-tiverton-honiton-candidate-declines-to-say-if-boris-johnson-trustworthy

    'Asked, finally, if she was comfortable going into a parliamentary party led by Johnson, she replied: “I’m comfortable representing Tiverton and Honiton as their MP with the Conservatives, with a prime minister who has once again, for the third time, been shown support by the majority of the party. That is what I will be going for. Everything else has happened. I’m looking forwards to the future.

    “I don’t want to play party politics. I don’t want to be drawn into things that have happened. I want to be talking about what I can deliver for Tiverton and Honiton.”'

    Funny that, as she's not standing as an independent ... obviously one of those people on the verge of becoming independents who are Tories in sheepskin.
    I know she's in a tricky position, but 'I don't want to play party politics' whilst standing for a party in a period of high political contention, could be one of the dumbest attempts at deflection I've ever seen.

    Not to mention 'i dont want to talk about what you do as that is hard, i want to talk about what I want' is already a classic whine politicians use. Youd think prospective MPs would know you cannot choose what others want to talk about.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,115
    Impressive BBC quizzing of Lavrov:

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1537481465528832002

    Not defending the answers but it's good to see the BBC doing its job of showing us all sides, with (as far as I can tell) a really fluent interviewer asking polite but tough questions.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 1,147
    Nigelb said:

    boulay said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    There was a Tory grandee early 20th century who gave a serious amount of his own wedge to pay down the national debt. Sunak should make a one off donation of 50m to Our NHS to make up for the non dom savings

    Or he could invite Boris round to his country pad and slowly burn it in front of him to show him how nice it is to have money so Boris realises he needs to quit to start getting rich.

    A much better use of 50m to the country.
    Around, rather than in front of, would be more effective ?
    I was thinking of it as a nice counterpoint to Bullingdon japes burning fifties in front of homeless people.

    Rich public school Oxford man burns money that he can live without in front of someone poor and then laughs.

    Would be a nice salutary reminder to Boris that a good lesson in life, when you are privileged but arrogant, is that there is always someone wealthier and better educated than you so hold back the hubris.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,934

    IshmaelZ said:

    There was a Tory grandee early 20th century who gave a serious amount of his own wedge to pay down the national debt. Sunak should make a one off donation of 50m to Our NHS to make up for the non dom savings

    Baldwin? I believe he donated a fifth of his fortune (around £3-4m in today’s money) to a patriotic fund after WWI. He also did it anonymously; the chances of a politician acting virtuously nowadays without vigorously signalling it to the public are minimal.
    True, but who cares? Give us your dosh Sunak, and look virtuous!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 15,968
    Heathener said:

    And re. Maggie ... no not really. Here is her inflation in an easily viewed graph. The early spike was partly because of inflationary pressures in the pipeline, partly because within days of taking office she gave police and armed forces a whopping pay rise, and partly because controlling the wildly out of control PSBR took many months of hard pruning.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22070491

    I'm not an advocate of Margaret Thatcher, even though I consider her the greatest PM of my lifetime by a country mile. She had flaws and she could come across as cruel and inhumane with many of her hardline and intransigent policies. Her belief in no state intervention led to much of British industry going to the wall. She was right to curb union excesses though: the hard Left had crippled this country.

    She was a remarkable PM nonetheless who undoubtedly changed this country and, love or loathe her, Britain went from the sick man of Europe to a prosperous nation.

    She was a giant. The more so compared to the shit-show today.

    She was a callous *****, and the root of the underlying problems we face, specifically a low manufacturing, retail economy selling foreign produce and intangible services, were always unsustainable in the long term. A permanent balance of trade deficit in goods was always folly.

    Selling burgers and Chinese tat to each other with money borrowed on the back of property inflation has been sustained for a lot longer than I anticipated, I don't see that continuing with rising retail inflation and interest rates.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,503
    edited June 17
    rcs1000 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    In front of a homeless person obv

    Homeless Ukrainian refugee for maximum points
    I'd be careful, any Ukrainian who has made it here past Priti has probably got a superpower or 2
    I wouldn't describe the ability to donate to the Conservative Party as a "superpower".
    ...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 70,237
    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Less than a week to go until polling day in Tiverton and Honiton - here’s the link to last night’s only public hustings. School funding (ie rebuilding Tivvy High School), Rwanda, the PM’s character among the issues generating most heat. https://twitter.com/our_tivvy_high/status/1537359299931910144

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/17/helen-hurford-tiverton-honiton-candidate-declines-to-say-if-boris-johnson-trustworthy

    'Asked, finally, if she was comfortable going into a parliamentary party led by Johnson, she replied: “I’m comfortable representing Tiverton and Honiton as their MP with the Conservatives, with a prime minister who has once again, for the third time, been shown support by the majority of the party. That is what I will be going for. Everything else has happened. I’m looking forwards to the future.

    “I don’t want to play party politics. I don’t want to be drawn into things that have happened. I want to be talking about what I can deliver for Tiverton and Honiton.”'

    Funny that, as she's not standing as an independent ... obviously one of those people on the verge of becoming independents who are Tories in sheepskin.
    Asked if Johnson was equally trustworthy, she declined to answer directly, saying: “I will be giving my loyalty to somebody who has been given a third mandate by the party. This has happened. We need to move on.”

    LOL When your by-election candidates don't give the 'full Boris' answer...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,460
    rcs1000 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    In front of a homeless person obv

    Homeless Ukrainian refugee for maximum points
    I'd be careful, any Ukrainian who has made it here past Priti has probably got a superpower or 2
    I wouldn't describe the ability to donate to the Conservative Party as a "superpower".
    If you want to get ahead perhaps its more of a religious duty?

    Though the PM will claim he had no idea even if you pay for his flat, so it's not worth it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,634
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    One for @Dura_Ace

    China Launches First Aircraft Carrier Which Rivals U.S. Navy’s
    https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/06/china-launches-first-aircraft-carrier-which-rivals-u-s-navys/

    Should spice up any defence-of-Taiwan war games if they build a couple more.

    That's a very large target.

    It also makes bugger all difference. China can put fighter planes over Taiwan. Many planes. (China, is after all, not that far away....
    The purpose of large carriers would be to help deny the theatre to the US navy. They would be some way beyond Taiwan.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 33,476

    Impressive BBC quizzing of Lavrov:

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1537481465528832002

    Not defending the answers but it's good to see the BBC doing its job of showing us all sides, with (as far as I can tell) a really fluent interviewer asking polite but tough questions.

    On a connected note I’m surprised that Steve Rosenberg is still permitted by Moscow to ply his trade. As you suggest he’s not afraid to ask difficult questions.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 29,790
    Last week there was talk about whether the Ukrainians had any TB2 drones left.

    It appears that they do.

    https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1537695657439404032
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,934
    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    There was a Tory grandee early 20th century who gave a serious amount of his own wedge to pay down the national debt. Sunak should make a one off donation of 50m to Our NHS to make up for the non dom savings

    Baldwin? I believe he donated a fifth of his fortune (around £3-4m in today’s money) to a patriotic fund after WWI. He also did it anonymously; the chances of a politician acting virtuously nowadays without vigorously signalling it to the public are minimal.
    Almost. He calculated the profit his ironworks had made from WW1 and bought government bonds (to the tune of £120,000) and then cancelled them in his capacity as Financial Secretary to the Treasury. He also wrote semi-anonymously to the Times (signed FST) saying what he had done in the hope it would encourage others to do the same (it didn’t).

    He said he very nearly grabbed the bills back when put in the furnace - but he didn’t.

    He died in near poverty, incidentally.
    Near poverty is wonderfully vague.

    "My son, when viewed from a certain angle, looks near Byronic"
    Here's the hovel where Baldwin ended up living out his poverty-stricken final days:

    image
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 45,383
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    One for @Dura_Ace

    China Launches First Aircraft Carrier Which Rivals U.S. Navy’s
    https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/06/china-launches-first-aircraft-carrier-which-rivals-u-s-navys/

    Should spice up any defence-of-Taiwan war games if they build a couple more.

    That's a very large target.

    It also makes bugger all difference. China can put fighter planes over Taiwan. Many planes. (China, is after all, not that far away....
    The purpose of large carriers would be to help deny the theatre to the US navy. They would be some way beyond Taiwan.
    How does having a bunch of your fighters on a sinkable runway help?

    In the open sea, carriers are great, because your opponent doesn't know where they are. There's an area the size of France and Germany combined and you know there's a football field sized vessel there somewhere... but where?

    If you stuff them in the Taiwan straits, they'll be found. And they'll be an expensive, sinkable, runway.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 9,475
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    One for @Dura_Ace

    China Launches First Aircraft Carrier Which Rivals U.S. Navy’s
    https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/06/china-launches-first-aircraft-carrier-which-rivals-u-s-navys/

    Should spice up any defence-of-Taiwan war games if they build a couple more.

    That's a very large target.

    It also makes bugger all difference. China can put fighter planes over Taiwan. Many planes. (China, is after all, not that far away.)

    But invading over 150 miles of ocean, towards a well armed and well equiped country, and where the easy beaches are on the far side of the island...

    Well. That's the tough part.
    If Taiwan gets invaded the PLAN carriers will be used for CAS for the amphibious assault. That's why the USN has 16 LHA/LHD carriers in the 'Gator Navy' over and above the CVN carriers.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 45,383

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    There was a Tory grandee early 20th century who gave a serious amount of his own wedge to pay down the national debt. Sunak should make a one off donation of 50m to Our NHS to make up for the non dom savings

    Baldwin? I believe he donated a fifth of his fortune (around £3-4m in today’s money) to a patriotic fund after WWI. He also did it anonymously; the chances of a politician acting virtuously nowadays without vigorously signalling it to the public are minimal.
    Almost. He calculated the profit his ironworks had made from WW1 and bought government bonds (to the tune of £120,000) and then cancelled them in his capacity as Financial Secretary to the Treasury. He also wrote semi-anonymously to the Times (signed FST) saying what he had done in the hope it would encourage others to do the same (it didn’t).

    He said he very nearly grabbed the bills back when put in the furnace - but he didn’t.

    He died in near poverty, incidentally.
    Near poverty is wonderfully vague.

    "My son, when viewed from a certain angle, looks near Byronic"
    Here's the hovel where Baldwin ended up living out his poverty-stricken final days:

    image
    Poor bastard.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,934
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    One for @Dura_Ace

    China Launches First Aircraft Carrier Which Rivals U.S. Navy’s
    https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/06/china-launches-first-aircraft-carrier-which-rivals-u-s-navys/

    Should spice up any defence-of-Taiwan war games if they build a couple more.

    That's a very large target.

    It also makes bugger all difference. China can put fighter planes over Taiwan. Many planes. (China, is after all, not that far away....
    The purpose of large carriers would be to help deny the theatre to the US navy. They would be some way beyond Taiwan.
    How does having a bunch of your fighters on a sinkable runway help?

    In the open sea, carriers are great, because your opponent doesn't know where they are. There's an area the size of France and Germany combined and you know there's a football field sized vessel there somewhere... but where?

    If you stuff them in the Taiwan straits, they'll be found. And they'll be an expensive, sinkable, runway.
    I may be being naive but I assumed in these days of satellite monitoring no aircraft carrier could ever hide.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,115
    Carnyx said:

    When I ran a business during the 70s' and 80's, I would have welcomed a Bank Rate of 1.25%!

    On the last post's topic: Years ago, I recall reading a study of American voters, and their tolerance for ethical problems in the candidates they supported. It turned out -- assuming I am remembering this correctly -- that a fairly large number of voters saw ethical problems as just another issue, to be weighed against the others. That helps explain the support for candidates like the rascal king: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Michael_Curley

    So a voter might agree that Curley was a crook, but still vote for him, thinking that Curley was right on public housing, taxing rich Protestants, finding a job for a relative, and so on.

    (My apologies for posting this here, but I just now remembered, however vaguely, the study.)

    No need to apologise at all - an interesting and relevant comment.
    Yes, that's interesting, and up to a point I think we can empathise - if Trump was standing against Hitler or Pol Pot, I suppose we'd all vote for Trump. But seeing corruption as "just another issue" is a sobering way of putting it.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,934
    edited June 17
    Dura_Ace said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    One for @Dura_Ace

    China Launches First Aircraft Carrier Which Rivals U.S. Navy’s
    https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/06/china-launches-first-aircraft-carrier-which-rivals-u-s-navys/

    Should spice up any defence-of-Taiwan war games if they build a couple more.

    That's a very large target.

    It also makes bugger all difference. China can put fighter planes over Taiwan. Many planes. (China, is after all, not that far away.)

    But invading over 150 miles of ocean, towards a well armed and well equiped country, and where the easy beaches are on the far side of the island...

    Well. That's the tough part.
    If Taiwan gets invaded the PLAN carriers will be used for CAS for the amphibious assault. That's why the USN has 16 LHA/LHD carriers in the 'Gator Navy' over and above the CVN carriers.
    Dura mate, six acronyms? Really?

    USN - United States Navy - I got.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 27,307

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    One for @Dura_Ace

    China Launches First Aircraft Carrier Which Rivals U.S. Navy’s
    https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/06/china-launches-first-aircraft-carrier-which-rivals-u-s-navys/

    Should spice up any defence-of-Taiwan war games if they build a couple more.

    That's a very large target.

    It also makes bugger all difference. China can put fighter planes over Taiwan. Many planes. (China, is after all, not that far away....
    The purpose of large carriers would be to help deny the theatre to the US navy. They would be some way beyond Taiwan.
    How does having a bunch of your fighters on a sinkable runway help?

    In the open sea, carriers are great, because your opponent doesn't know where they are. There's an area the size of France and Germany combined and you know there's a football field sized vessel there somewhere... but where?

    If you stuff them in the Taiwan straits, they'll be found. And they'll be an expensive, sinkable, runway.
    I may be being naive but I assumed in these days of satellite monitoring no aircraft carrier could ever hide.
    Back when the USSR had nuclear powered radar satellites (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/US-A) the US Navy successfully managed to lose all the Russian tracking of a carrier battle group, several times.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,448
    edited June 17

    Heathener said:

    And re. Maggie ... no not really. Here is her inflation in an easily viewed graph. The early spike was partly because of inflationary pressures in the pipeline, partly because within days of taking office she gave police and armed forces a whopping pay rise, and partly because controlling the wildly out of control PSBR took many months of hard pruning.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22070491

    I'm not an advocate of Margaret Thatcher, even though I consider her the greatest PM of my lifetime by a country mile. She had flaws and she could come across as cruel and inhumane with many of her hardline and intransigent policies. Her belief in no state intervention led to much of British industry going to the wall. She was right to curb union excesses though: the hard Left had crippled this country.

    She was a remarkable PM nonetheless who undoubtedly changed this country and, love or loathe her, Britain went from the sick man of Europe to a prosperous nation.

    She was a giant. The more so compared to the shit-show today.

    She was a callous *****, and the root of the underlying problems we face, specifically a low manufacturing, retail economy selling foreign produce and intangible services, were always unsustainable in the long term. A permanent balance of trade deficit in goods was always folly.

    Selling burgers and Chinese tat to each other with money borrowed on the back of property inflation has been sustained for a lot longer than I anticipated, I don't see that continuing with rising retail inflation and interest rates.
    Completely wrong in a number of ways.

    The decline in manufacturing output long predated 1979, the Conservatives actually raised manufacturing output over their time in office and there was a brief property boom in the late 80s it was new labour under which it had its most dramatic falls and when property price inflation really took off.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,934
    Positive covid test this morning - it's finally caught up with me. Feel like sh*t too.

    Hey ho.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,156
    edited June 17

    Heathener said:

    And re. Maggie ... no not really. Here is her inflation in an easily viewed graph. The early spike was partly because of inflationary pressures in the pipeline, partly because within days of taking office she gave police and armed forces a whopping pay rise, and partly because controlling the wildly out of control PSBR took many months of hard pruning.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22070491

    I'm not an advocate of Margaret Thatcher, even though I consider her the greatest PM of my lifetime by a country mile. She had flaws and she could come across as cruel and inhumane with many of her hardline and intransigent policies. Her belief in no state intervention led to much of British industry going to the wall. She was right to curb union excesses though: the hard Left had crippled this country. She was a remarkable PM nonetheless who undoubtedly changed this country and love or loathe her, Britain went from the sick man of Europe to a prosperous nation.

    She was a giant. The more so compared to the shit-show today.

    Good morning

    Thatcher and Blair look like giants compared to our present leaders and I simply do not understand why conservative mps still wait to act and remove Boris

    However, I am not at all sure that anyone in the conservative or labour party or indeed any politician would be able to withstand the unpopularity that comes with the enormous economic crisis engulfing the country with most everyone becoming poorer, though it is the duty of all politicians to protect the poor, vulnerable and low paid
    I'm pretty sure that your second paragraph is part of the answer to the first. Anyone taking over today will have the coming hangover on their CV. Much shrewder to let Johnson take the hit for that, and take over just in time to take credit for the green shoots that will eventually sprout.
    Well, you're right that timing is everything.

    But there's the rub. Are green shoots really likely to appear within 2 years? If they do, will the current Gov't take the credit?

    My sense is that however the shape of the next election goes, if the Conservatives stick with Boris Johnson then they're going to be out of office one way of the other (outright or coalition).

    So then what? Sunak takes over? Are the Conservatives really likely to return to office in 5 years? I seriously doubt it. I suspect people will look back to 2019-2024 and shudder. It will be thought of as one of the darkest times in world and UK history, an almost visceral pain etched into the nation's consciousness.

    I always think of William Hague in this context, someone immensely gifted but who took the mantle at completely the wrong time.

    If Sunak wanted to be PM and, more importantly if he had the nous, he would have attacked and defenestrated Johnson six months ago. No ifs, no buts. If he now bides his time he will go down with this ship. He may become captain but it will be of a watery wreck, lying at the bottom of the ocean.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,591
    The crazy thing is that the first one to break cover and denounce Johnson would be a shoo-in. Yesterday one of them said in parliament the Prime Minister was 'a man of complete integrity' and you could time the laughter in minutes. If one of them walks away and says they can't be part of it any longer the job's theirs.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 9,475
    edited June 17

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    One for @Dura_Ace

    China Launches First Aircraft Carrier Which Rivals U.S. Navy’s
    https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/06/china-launches-first-aircraft-carrier-which-rivals-u-s-navys/

    Should spice up any defence-of-Taiwan war games if they build a couple more.

    That's a very large target.

    It also makes bugger all difference. China can put fighter planes over Taiwan. Many planes. (China, is after all, not that far away....
    The purpose of large carriers would be to help deny the theatre to the US navy. They would be some way beyond Taiwan.
    How does having a bunch of your fighters on a sinkable runway help?

    In the open sea, carriers are great, because your opponent doesn't know where they are. There's an area the size of France and Germany combined and you know there's a football field sized vessel there somewhere... but where?

    If you stuff them in the Taiwan straits, they'll be found. And they'll be an expensive, sinkable, runway.
    I may be being naive but I assumed in these days of satellite monitoring no aircraft carrier could ever hide.
    No, carriers are very hard to find and fix because they are fast. In a 90 minute period they can be anywhere in a 6,000 square mile area from their initial position.

    They are also very hard to kill, even once you get past the CSG. In the USS America 2005 SINKEX it took four weeks to sink her!
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 9,475

    Dura_Ace said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    One for @Dura_Ace

    China Launches First Aircraft Carrier Which Rivals U.S. Navy’s
    https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/06/china-launches-first-aircraft-carrier-which-rivals-u-s-navys/

    Should spice up any defence-of-Taiwan war games if they build a couple more.

    That's a very large target.

    It also makes bugger all difference. China can put fighter planes over Taiwan. Many planes. (China, is after all, not that far away.)

    But invading over 150 miles of ocean, towards a well armed and well equiped country, and where the easy beaches are on the far side of the island...

    Well. That's the tough part.
    If Taiwan gets invaded the PLAN carriers will be used for CAS for the amphibious assault. That's why the USN has 16 LHA/LHD carriers in the 'Gator Navy' over and above the CVN carriers.
    Dura mate, six acronyms? Really?

    USN - United States Navy - I got.
    PLAN - People's Liberation Army Navy
    CAS - Close Air Support
    LHA - Landing Helicopter Assault ship (though they also operate fixed wing combat types for the aforementioned CAS mission)
    LHD - Landing Helicopter Dock (see LHA)
    CVN - Nuclear powered Ford/Nimitz carrier
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,115
    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Less than a week to go until polling day in Tiverton and Honiton - here’s the link to last night’s only public hustings. School funding (ie rebuilding Tivvy High School), Rwanda, the PM’s character among the issues generating most heat. https://twitter.com/our_tivvy_high/status/1537359299931910144

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/17/helen-hurford-tiverton-honiton-candidate-declines-to-say-if-boris-johnson-trustworthy

    'Asked, finally, if she was comfortable going into a parliamentary party led by Johnson, she replied: “I’m comfortable representing Tiverton and Honiton as their MP with the Conservatives, with a prime minister who has once again, for the third time, been shown support by the majority of the party. That is what I will be going for. Everything else has happened. I’m looking forwards to the future.

    “I don’t want to play party politics. I don’t want to be drawn into things that have happened. I want to be talking about what I can deliver for Tiverton and Honiton.”'

    Funny that, as she's not standing as an independent ... obviously one of those people on the verge of becoming independents who are Tories in sheepskin.
    She does sound rather more skilled than the Conservative candidate in Wakefield.

    Incidentally, Antony Calvert, who was the intended Tory Wakefield candidate until a controversy intervened, is pretty well-known as a polling expert, isn't he?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 18,498
    Interesting story in the Grauniad that Lynton Crosby is now attending the 8:30 morning meeting in Downing Street https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/17/election-guru-lynton-crosby-attending-pms-morning-meetings

    Election this autumn.
This discussion has been closed.