Presumably the Bank of England financial models suggest that inflation is only transitory. So as interest rate increases only has an impact on inflation in around 2 years time and that inflation then is back to "normal" it is not worth increasing rates now? The problem is whether the model is correct and whether the risk is on the upside or downside.
34. In the MPC’s central projections in the May Monetary Policy Report, UK GDP growth had been expected to slow sharply over the first half of the forecast period and, although the labour market had been expected to tighten slightly further in the near term, the unemployment rate had been projected to rise to 5½% in three years’ time. CPI inflation had been expected to average slightly over 10% at its peak in 2022 Q4. Conditioned on the rising market-implied path for Bank Rate at that time and the MPC’s forecasting convention for future energy prices, CPI inflation had been projected to fall to a little above the 2% target in two years’ time, largely reflecting the waning influence of external factors, and to be well below the target in three years, mainly reflecting weaker domestic pressures. The risks to the inflation projection had been judged to be skewed to the upside at these points.
6-3 for 0.25% with 3 voting for 0.5%. That's very likely to be the BoE forming the bulk of the majority and the outsiders wanting more radical action.
As inflation bounds ahead the real rate of interest, of course, becomes more and more radically negative. An increase of 0.25% and then a delay of 2 months means that our monetary policy is in fact becoming even looser at a time of very high and increasing inflation. The hope is that these external factors are transitory but in the meantime we will see wages, food prices and pretty much everything else going up. To be blunt, I really cannot follow the logic of the majority.
Bailey doesn't want the blame for crushing the economy with aggressive interest rate increases.
He'd rather let inflation crush it with soaring costs, and avoid the blame.
Either way, its surely going to get crushed eventually, along with every advanced Western economy out there
What a shame if that happens on Boris Johnson's watch and as a consequence he is forced into ignominious retirement.
The giant cloud inside that silver lining for you is what happens after Biden.
A thought never far from my mind.
Would I accept more Johnson as the price for no Trump 2?
Lord take me now for this, but I think I would yes.
Nothing stops Trump 24 now, the Democrats have blown it. Biden was a disastrous pick, Harris worse. There's a reason she got like minus 500% in the primaries. And both will be revenge impeached after Novembers slaughter. Gonna get very messy.
It's a worry, yes, but I can see various things stopping him regaining the White House and I think at least one of them will happen. As for the Dems, Harris seems to be widely disliked (and I need a lot of persuading that misogyny isn't a factor) but I don't agree Biden was a bad pick. He was a great pick for one massive reason - he was the only option for beating Trump. If it weren't for him we'd most likely have Trump2 NOW. Shudders.
https://twitter.com/OSINT88/status/1537442613833281539 🇬🇧The UK has purchased and is refurbishing more than 20 long range guns – M109s – from a Belgian arms company which it is sending to Ukraine, Defence Secretary @BWallaceMP has said. These heavy weapons fire 155mm rounds.
NEW: The Tory candidate in the Wakefield by-election has said voters should still back the Conservatives because “we still trust GPs” after Harold Shipman killed 250 people.
Nadeem Ahmed says Imran Ahmad Khan was just "one bad apple".
Not standing by Ukraine and doing deals to carve up the country with Putin..........Germany BAD!!!
Dragging Britain through the courts on the Northern Ireland Protocol......Germany GOOD!!!
There's also the fact that the German army is incredibly badly equipped.
Did you read the story from January, looking at one of Germany's front line divisions that was shipped off to the Baltics. It was missing tonnes of equipment and weaponry.
Yes, mine has dropped about 2-years' income worth already. It makes me wonder what we pay fund managers for if not to forecast and react to market conditions. Making the right connections at Oxbridge, I expect.
It is a bit brutal for equity investors. My overseas portfolio is down 15% over 6 months, my domestic portfolio about 10%. Both better than the markets, but losing money less quickly isn't much solace.
I am holding for the long term.
Hard thing is not selling. Was an option a week or two ago and I was tempted but did not do it, all 3 back down again.
This is the first year since I retired in 2017 that my SIPP capital growth hasn’t kept pace with my withdrawals. I was thinking of taking out a bit extra, but as someone once said, now is not the time.
Red, bit of a pain not knowing when you will peg it. Do you let rip and end up skint for years or watch how you go peg it early and leave a shedload for the children.
My advice when working was that in the first few years after retirement, you will spend more than you think you will; holidays, eating out, etc. As you get older, mid 70s, expenditure will reduce as you do less of these things. Older still, 80s and over, expenditure will increase again, as you need to pay people to do the things you can no longer do yourselves, plus heating costs increase. Is that the experience of more mature PBers?
Presumably the Bank of England financial models suggest that inflation is only transitory. So as interest rate increases only has an impact on inflation in around 2 years time and that inflation then is back to "normal" it is not worth increasing rates now? The problem is whether the model is correct and whether the risk is on the upside or downside.
34. In the MPC’s central projections in the May Monetary Policy Report, UK GDP growth had been expected to slow sharply over the first half of the forecast period and, although the labour market had been expected to tighten slightly further in the near term, the unemployment rate had been projected to rise to 5½% in three years’ time. CPI inflation had been expected to average slightly over 10% at its peak in 2022 Q4. Conditioned on the rising market-implied path for Bank Rate at that time and the MPC’s forecasting convention for future energy prices, CPI inflation had been projected to fall to a little above the 2% target in two years’ time, largely reflecting the waning influence of external factors, and to be well below the target in three years, mainly reflecting weaker domestic pressures. The risks to the inflation projection had been judged to be skewed to the upside at these points.
6-3 for 0.25% with 3 voting for 0.5%. That's very likely to be the BoE forming the bulk of the majority and the outsiders wanting more radical action.
As inflation bounds ahead the real rate of interest, of course, becomes more and more radically negative. An increase of 0.25% and then a delay of 2 months means that our monetary policy is in fact becoming even looser at a time of very high and increasing inflation. The hope is that these external factors are transitory but in the meantime we will see wages, food prices and pretty much everything else going up. To be blunt, I really cannot follow the logic of the majority.
What on Earth do they do, when the Fed adds 75bps more to the US$ base rate next month?
At some point reality will hit them on the arse, and we’ll end up seeing 150bps in one go. That will wake everyone up.
Let's crack on with the 500bp now and then another 500bp if that doesn't work.
We have highest inflation since 1980 and we need a 1980 approach to deal with it 15% interest rates now!
...says a man with no mortgage!
(And presumably, with no income source dependent on people with mortgages!)
Correct no mortgage. Paid it off a long time ago. Never paid less than 6% interest.
Current borrowing rates are Fantasy Island. There needs to be a readjustment to ensure that borrowers pay real positive interest rates.
But I will settle for a 5% interest rate increase for the time being 👍
The current bout of inflation is shit for those who have savings, but it allows the real value of peoples' debts to be inflated away, and also means that house prices can come back in line with earnings without painful and difficult negative equity.
Covid and Vlad may have done us all a big favour in helping us rebalance our economy.
Presumably the Bank of England financial models suggest that inflation is only transitory. So as interest rate increases only has an impact on inflation in around 2 years time and that inflation then is back to "normal" it is not worth increasing rates now? The problem is whether the model is correct and whether the risk is on the upside or downside.
34. In the MPC’s central projections in the May Monetary Policy Report, UK GDP growth had been expected to slow sharply over the first half of the forecast period and, although the labour market had been expected to tighten slightly further in the near term, the unemployment rate had been projected to rise to 5½% in three years’ time. CPI inflation had been expected to average slightly over 10% at its peak in 2022 Q4. Conditioned on the rising market-implied path for Bank Rate at that time and the MPC’s forecasting convention for future energy prices, CPI inflation had been projected to fall to a little above the 2% target in two years’ time, largely reflecting the waning influence of external factors, and to be well below the target in three years, mainly reflecting weaker domestic pressures. The risks to the inflation projection had been judged to be skewed to the upside at these points.
6-3 for 0.25% with 3 voting for 0.5%. That's very likely to be the BoE forming the bulk of the majority and the outsiders wanting more radical action.
As inflation bounds ahead the real rate of interest, of course, becomes more and more radically negative. An increase of 0.25% and then a delay of 2 months means that our monetary policy is in fact becoming even looser at a time of very high and increasing inflation. The hope is that these external factors are transitory but in the meantime we will see wages, food prices and pretty much everything else going up. To be blunt, I really cannot follow the logic of the majority.
Bailey doesn't want the blame for crushing the economy with aggressive interest rate increases.
He'd rather let inflation crush it with soaring costs, and avoid the blame.
Either way, its surely going to get crushed eventually, along with every advanced Western economy out there
What a shame if that happens on Boris Johnson's watch and as a consequence he is forced into ignominious retirement.
The giant cloud inside that silver lining for you is what happens after Biden.
A thought never far from my mind.
Would I accept more Johnson as the price for no Trump 2?
Lord take me now for this, but I think I would yes.
I think you would be 100% correct in that calculation, from your political viewpoint.
Trump 2 would be Trumpier than Trump 1 surely. The party is being purged. Neo-cons are getting targeted and beaten in primaries by Trump backed candidates. The ones that are even bothering to stand. Some just threw in the towel and did not bother.
The GOP is a dumpster fire.
https://twitter.com/paulwaldman1/status/1537431472365195269 "Republican gubernatorial candidate Ryan Kelley’s recent arrest by the FBI for his suspected involvement in the Jan. 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol appears to have boosted his name recognition and favorability among GOP voters in Michigan"
There’s no hope for the USA . It’s fast becoming a failed state .
There was a YouGov poll earlier this year that showed that 46% Americans think a civil war is likely in their lifetimes, with only 36% thinking it is unlikely.
NEW: The Tory candidate in the Wakefield by-election has said voters should still back the Conservatives because “we still trust GPs” after Harold Shipman killed 250 people.
Nadeem Ahmed says Imran Ahmad Khan was just "one bad apple".
If that's the best the Tories can come up with in a key by-election, they're in trouble. I know it's only a short clip, but - how can I put this? - he seems embarrassingly dense.
https://twitter.com/OSINT88/status/1537442613833281539 🇬🇧The UK has purchased and is refurbishing more than 20 long range guns – M109s – from a Belgian arms company which it is sending to Ukraine, Defence Secretary @BWallaceMP has said. These heavy weapons fire 155mm rounds.
Probably M109A4s ?
Distinction is pretty academic as IIRC the differences within the M109 family are mainly whether the gun barrels are long, very long or absurdly long, and those are easily changed at upgrade. The rest is detail fripperies like radios, and where one puts the sleeping bags and uses a MG3 or 0.5"/12.7mm M2HB. Perhaps some imrpvoements to the engine and ammo handling.
Presumably the Bank of England financial models suggest that inflation is only transitory. So as interest rate increases only has an impact on inflation in around 2 years time and that inflation then is back to "normal" it is not worth increasing rates now? The problem is whether the model is correct and whether the risk is on the upside or downside.
34. In the MPC’s central projections in the May Monetary Policy Report, UK GDP growth had been expected to slow sharply over the first half of the forecast period and, although the labour market had been expected to tighten slightly further in the near term, the unemployment rate had been projected to rise to 5½% in three years’ time. CPI inflation had been expected to average slightly over 10% at its peak in 2022 Q4. Conditioned on the rising market-implied path for Bank Rate at that time and the MPC’s forecasting convention for future energy prices, CPI inflation had been projected to fall to a little above the 2% target in two years’ time, largely reflecting the waning influence of external factors, and to be well below the target in three years, mainly reflecting weaker domestic pressures. The risks to the inflation projection had been judged to be skewed to the upside at these points.
6-3 for 0.25% with 3 voting for 0.5%. That's very likely to be the BoE forming the bulk of the majority and the outsiders wanting more radical action.
As inflation bounds ahead the real rate of interest, of course, becomes more and more radically negative. An increase of 0.25% and then a delay of 2 months means that our monetary policy is in fact becoming even looser at a time of very high and increasing inflation. The hope is that these external factors are transitory but in the meantime we will see wages, food prices and pretty much everything else going up. To be blunt, I really cannot follow the logic of the majority.
What on Earth do they do, when the Fed adds 75bps more to the US$ base rate next month?
At some point reality will hit them on the arse, and we’ll end up seeing 150bps in one go. That will wake everyone up.
Let's crack on with the 500bp now and then another 500bp if that doesn't work.
We have highest inflation since 1980 and we need a 1980 approach to deal with it 15% interest rates now!
...says a man with no mortgage!
(And presumably, with no income source dependent on people with mortgages!)
Correct no mortgage. Paid it off a long time ago. Never paid less than 6% interest.
Current borrowing rates are Fantasy Island. There needs to be a readjustment to ensure that borrowers pay real positive interest rates.
But I will settle for a 5% interest rate increase for the time being 👍
The current bout of inflation is shit for those who have savings, but it allows the real value of peoples' debts to be inflated away, and also means that house prices can come back in line with earnings without painful and difficult negative equity.
Covid and Vlad may have done us all a big favour in helping us rebalance our economy.
The current bout of inflation is not just sh8t for those with savings though. It is sh8t for anybody on a low or moderate wage, isn't it?
Ghastly, if I knew I would be forced to rent out to doleys, I would never have become a landlord.
Landlords will be forced to rent to people on benefits and reimburse tenants whose homes aren't up to scratch under new Government plans to overhaul the buy-to-let sector.
In “the biggest shake-up of the private rented sector in 30 years”, landlords will have to repay rent to tenants if homes do not meet new minimum standards.
Blanket bans on renting to tenants on benefits or to families with children will be outlawed according to the Fairer Private Rented Sector White Paper.
The Government will also bring in its 2019 election manifesto promise to abolish Section 21 “no-fault” evictions into law in the proposed Renters Reform Bill. This will make it harder for landlords to gain repossession of their properties unless they can prove tenant wrongdoing.
Watch rents rocket as landlords pull out of the market entirely rather than have bad tenants.
There could be a big fire sale of property down the line as the attractiveness of buy to let pales.
To be fair I quite like all of that, as a long-term tenant who has never had a problem with any of half a dozen landlords. Discriminating against people on benefits is simply a form of class discrimination, since actually the rent is better guaranteed than usual. Asking for a reference from a previous landlord would be a better protection against troublemakers.
Some BTL landlords may sell out to property companies who do nothing else and do it well, and that's fine. Every other country that I've lived in has had a healthier rental market than Britain, where too many people see it as an unfortunate necessity to be avoided if possible, rather than a legitimate choice. I think it's weird that people want to tie up their savings and take a loan to live somewhere that they don't necessarily know how to maintain well - why not leave it to professionals and spend your money on enjoying life?
Interesting that an ex-Labour MP doesn't know the answer.
You *have to* invest in property. If you rent, you are buying a property for someone else. If you buy, you are being it for yourself.
If you own, after you pay off the mortgage, you own the property outright. Which means that when you are retired, you have zero rental/mortage costs. No "rent man" to fear, as in the old days.
You are secure in your home, and need very little money for the rest of things in life (comparatively).
Why doesn't that argument apply in Germany. I rented off a private landlord there - and they rented a nicer place off some other private landlord.
Customary usage. One German chap of my aquaintance has invested heavily in property for his retirement fund. But he still rents his own property. When I asked him why he didn't move into one of the places that he owns - he actually scratched his head at that one for a bit.
It may be discrimination with respect to benefits people, but I reckon a ton of landlords are gonna pull out of this now. More hassle than worth. There will be consolidation with the bigger boys i reckon as someone mentioned.
Maybe they'll build some decent 1920s and 30s style council housing stock for those of that cant afford to buy to rent for life. With some outside space and communal shops and services. Fantady post of the day
Edinburgh has a superb housing type called a colony which is essentially a terraced row of upstairs-downstairs but with entrances on alternate sides going through a garden/yard. I think modern ones were built recently under a council scheme. They’re high density but all come with green space or yard space if wanted. That requires investment though, and the government would rather spend it on hats, or fighting itself or something.
They were built for artisans, and symbols of the trade or craft are carved into the stones of the end walls of the terraces. Highly fashionable now, though less so when we lived there in the early 70s in our first own house.
Wonderful, as are the tenement blocks of Morningside and the like for the more well to do. Scotland can teach the rest of the UK a lot about housing.
For every Morningside, there’s also a Gorbals. Or was, before they flattened most of it.
Presumably the Bank of England financial models suggest that inflation is only transitory. So as interest rate increases only has an impact on inflation in around 2 years time and that inflation then is back to "normal" it is not worth increasing rates now? The problem is whether the model is correct and whether the risk is on the upside or downside.
34. In the MPC’s central projections in the May Monetary Policy Report, UK GDP growth had been expected to slow sharply over the first half of the forecast period and, although the labour market had been expected to tighten slightly further in the near term, the unemployment rate had been projected to rise to 5½% in three years’ time. CPI inflation had been expected to average slightly over 10% at its peak in 2022 Q4. Conditioned on the rising market-implied path for Bank Rate at that time and the MPC’s forecasting convention for future energy prices, CPI inflation had been projected to fall to a little above the 2% target in two years’ time, largely reflecting the waning influence of external factors, and to be well below the target in three years, mainly reflecting weaker domestic pressures. The risks to the inflation projection had been judged to be skewed to the upside at these points.
6-3 for 0.25% with 3 voting for 0.5%. That's very likely to be the BoE forming the bulk of the majority and the outsiders wanting more radical action.
As inflation bounds ahead the real rate of interest, of course, becomes more and more radically negative. An increase of 0.25% and then a delay of 2 months means that our monetary policy is in fact becoming even looser at a time of very high and increasing inflation. The hope is that these external factors are transitory but in the meantime we will see wages, food prices and pretty much everything else going up. To be blunt, I really cannot follow the logic of the majority.
Bailey doesn't want the blame for crushing the economy with aggressive interest rate increases.
He'd rather let inflation crush it with soaring costs, and avoid the blame.
Either way, its surely going to get crushed eventually, along with every advanced Western economy out there
What a shame if that happens on Boris Johnson's watch and as a consequence he is forced into ignominious retirement.
The giant cloud inside that silver lining for you is what happens after Biden.
A thought never far from my mind.
Would I accept more Johnson as the price for no Trump 2?
Lord take me now for this, but I think I would yes.
I think you would be 100% correct in that calculation, from your political viewpoint.
Trump 2 would be Trumpier than Trump 1 surely. The party is being purged. Neo-cons are getting targeted and beaten in primaries by Trump backed candidates. The ones that are even bothering to stand. Some just threw in the towel and did not bother.
Hey c'mon, it's not from my political viewpoint, it's from the viewpoint of all but the small of brain and/or mean of spirit. And less of that "neocons" thing if you please. There might be some neocons amongst those being purged but their neoconniness isn't their offence. Their offence is not signing up with sufficient enthusiasm to the Big Lie about the "stolen" 2020 election.
If that's the best the Tories can come up with in a key by-election, they're in trouble. I know it's only a short clip, but - how can I put this? - he seems embarrassingly dense.
Note to all candidates - as well as not mentioning serial killers when being interviewed, it's usually best not to stand in front of one of your opponents' election posters. https://twitter.com/Tony_Diver/status/1537439707818209280
Ghastly, if I knew I would be forced to rent out to doleys, I would never have become a landlord.
Landlords will be forced to rent to people on benefits and reimburse tenants whose homes aren't up to scratch under new Government plans to overhaul the buy-to-let sector.
In “the biggest shake-up of the private rented sector in 30 years”, landlords will have to repay rent to tenants if homes do not meet new minimum standards.
Blanket bans on renting to tenants on benefits or to families with children will be outlawed according to the Fairer Private Rented Sector White Paper.
The Government will also bring in its 2019 election manifesto promise to abolish Section 21 “no-fault” evictions into law in the proposed Renters Reform Bill. This will make it harder for landlords to gain repossession of their properties unless they can prove tenant wrongdoing.
Watch rents rocket as landlords pull out of the market entirely rather than have bad tenants.
There could be a big fire sale of property down the line as the attractiveness of buy to let pales.
To be fair I quite like all of that, as a long-term tenant who has never had a problem with any of half a dozen landlords. Discriminating against people on benefits is simply a form of class discrimination, since actually the rent is better guaranteed than usual. Asking for a reference from a previous landlord would be a better protection against troublemakers.
Some BTL landlords may sell out to property companies who do nothing else and do it well, and that's fine. Every other country that I've lived in has had a healthier rental market than Britain, where too many people see it as an unfortunate necessity to be avoided if possible, rather than a legitimate choice. I think it's weird that people want to tie up their savings and take a loan to live somewhere that they don't necessarily know how to maintain well - why not leave it to professionals and spend your money on enjoying life?
Interesting that an ex-Labour MP doesn't know the answer.
You *have to* invest in property. If you rent, you are buying a property for someone else. If you buy, you are being it for yourself.
If you own, after you pay off the mortgage, you own the property outright. Which means that when you are retired, you have zero rental/mortage costs. No "rent man" to fear, as in the old days.
You are secure in your home, and need very little money for the rest of things in life (comparatively).
Why doesn't that argument apply in Germany. I rented off a private landlord there - and they rented a nicer place off some other private landlord.
Customary usage. One German chap of my aquaintance has invested heavily in property for his retirement fund. But he still rents his own property. When I asked him why he didn't move into one of the places that he owns - he actually scratched his head at that one for a bit.
It may be discrimination with respect to benefits people, but I reckon a ton of landlords are gonna pull out of this now. More hassle than worth. There will be consolidation with the bigger boys i reckon as someone mentioned.
Maybe they'll build some decent 1920s and 30s style council housing stock for those of that cant afford to buy to rent for life. With some outside space and communal shops and services. Fantady post of the day
Edinburgh has a superb housing type called a colony which is essentially a terraced row of upstairs-downstairs but with entrances on alternate sides going through a garden/yard. I think modern ones were built recently under a council scheme. They’re high density but all come with green space or yard space if wanted. That requires investment though, and the government would rather spend it on hats, or fighting itself or something.
Theres so much good thats been abandoned over the decades. Acres of good policy for a new party to occupy and free us from the tree rose and sandal cancer
I've been impressed by the council houses built around here under the SNP 2010 onwards after a long drought under Labour. They're not huge, but from the outside they seem decent places - a backyard, solar panels, off road parking. Labour seem to be picking up the challenge too which is good news.
Our daughter lives in a housing association development. Some of the houses are rented and some are bought on a shared equity basis. There is no difference in the houses. All houses are of high quality and spacious.
If that's the best the Tories can come up with in a key by-election, they're in trouble. I know it's only a short clip, but - how can I put this? - he seems embarrassingly dense.
Note to all candidates - as well as not mentioning serial killers when being interviewed, it's usually best not to stand in front of one of your opponents' election posters. https://twitter.com/Tony_Diver/status/1537439707818209280
https://twitter.com/OSINT88/status/1537442613833281539 🇬🇧The UK has purchased and is refurbishing more than 20 long range guns – M109s – from a Belgian arms company which it is sending to Ukraine, Defence Secretary @BWallaceMP has said. These heavy weapons fire 155mm rounds.
Probably M109A4s ?
Distinction is pretty academic as IIRC the differences within the M109 family are mainly whether the gun barrels are long, very long or absurdly long, and those are easily changed at upgrade. The rest is detail fripperies like radios, and where one puts the sleeping bags and uses a MG3 or 0.5"/12.7mm M2HB. Perhaps some improvements to the engine and ammo handling.
Some of the later kit can handle longer range rounds; also the navigation and targeting systems greatly improved over time.
Some of that could well have been retrofitted, though.
If that's the best the Tories can come up with in a key by-election, they're in trouble. I know it's only a short clip, but - how can I put this? - he seems embarrassingly dense.
Note to all candidates - as well as not mentioning serial killers when being interviewed, it's usually best not to stand in front of one of your opponents' election posters. https://twitter.com/Tony_Diver/status/1537439707818209280
NEW: The Tory candidate in the Wakefield by-election has said voters should still back the Conservatives because “we still trust GPs” after Harold Shipman killed 250 people.
Nadeem Ahmed says Imran Ahmad Khan was just "one bad apple".
If that's the best the Tories can come up with in a key by-election, they're in trouble. I know it's only a short clip, but - how can I put this? - he seems embarrassingly dense.
Note to all candidates - as well as not mentioning serial killers when being interviewed, it's usually best not to stand in front of one of your opponents' election posters. https://twitter.com/Tony_Diver/status/1537439707818209280
Presumably the Bank of England financial models suggest that inflation is only transitory. So as interest rate increases only has an impact on inflation in around 2 years time and that inflation then is back to "normal" it is not worth increasing rates now? The problem is whether the model is correct and whether the risk is on the upside or downside.
34. In the MPC’s central projections in the May Monetary Policy Report, UK GDP growth had been expected to slow sharply over the first half of the forecast period and, although the labour market had been expected to tighten slightly further in the near term, the unemployment rate had been projected to rise to 5½% in three years’ time. CPI inflation had been expected to average slightly over 10% at its peak in 2022 Q4. Conditioned on the rising market-implied path for Bank Rate at that time and the MPC’s forecasting convention for future energy prices, CPI inflation had been projected to fall to a little above the 2% target in two years’ time, largely reflecting the waning influence of external factors, and to be well below the target in three years, mainly reflecting weaker domestic pressures. The risks to the inflation projection had been judged to be skewed to the upside at these points.
6-3 for 0.25% with 3 voting for 0.5%. That's very likely to be the BoE forming the bulk of the majority and the outsiders wanting more radical action.
As inflation bounds ahead the real rate of interest, of course, becomes more and more radically negative. An increase of 0.25% and then a delay of 2 months means that our monetary policy is in fact becoming even looser at a time of very high and increasing inflation. The hope is that these external factors are transitory but in the meantime we will see wages, food prices and pretty much everything else going up. To be blunt, I really cannot follow the logic of the majority.
What on Earth do they do, when the Fed adds 75bps more to the US$ base rate next month?
At some point reality will hit them on the arse, and we’ll end up seeing 150bps in one go. That will wake everyone up.
Let's crack on with the 500bp now and then another 500bp if that doesn't work.
We have highest inflation since 1980 and we need a 1980 approach to deal with it 15% interest rates now!
...says a man with no mortgage!
(And presumably, with no income source dependent on people with mortgages!)
Correct no mortgage. Paid it off a long time ago. Never paid less than 6% interest.
Current borrowing rates are Fantasy Island. There needs to be a readjustment to ensure that borrowers pay real positive interest rates.
But I will settle for a 5% interest rate increase for the time being 👍
The current bout of inflation is shit for those who have savings, but it allows the real value of peoples' debts to be inflated away, and also means that house prices can come back in line with earnings without painful and difficult negative equity.
Covid and Vlad may have done us all a big favour in helping us rebalance our economy.
Surely bailing out the over-indebted creates a moral hazard, just like bailing out the banks did.
https://twitter.com/OSINT88/status/1537442613833281539 🇬🇧The UK has purchased and is refurbishing more than 20 long range guns – M109s – from a Belgian arms company which it is sending to Ukraine, Defence Secretary @BWallaceMP has said. These heavy weapons fire 155mm rounds.
Probably M109A4s ?
I believe that several countries have sent M109s already - so it would make sense to try and reduce the number of different types of equipment.
I recall a report that Ukraine had bought some already - from a Belgian company. Presumably this is the same outfit - they bought (IIRC) the Belgian Army fleet of them when they were retired.
Headline: Scotland to Europe ferry link 'to return in 2023'
Body: 'A statement of intent released by DFDS and Ptarmigan Shipping reads: “Ptarmigan Shipping and DFDS have signed an agreement with the intention to further investigate the possibility for a new ferry route between Rosyth and Zeebrugge"... SNP MP Douglas Chapman... [said] "I am hugely excited by this announcement of further investigating the possibility to start a direct freight service between Rosyth and Zeebrugge in 2023"'
If Dougie is hugely excited by an agreement to investigate the possibility of doing something, Dunfermline and West Fife must be duller than I'd anticipated.
Ever been there? It's not been the same since the mines closed, not to mention the naval dockyard. Or the paper mill. Amazon is almost as good as it gets.
I'm actually surprised it's not to run from Leith, but there may be some technical issue of which I am unaware. And of course Rosyth is mcuh easier of access, just off the M-way, than the middle ofr a large conurbation, even if the seaside road is relatively clear by Edinburgh standards - having two road bridges is a big help.
Driving freight trucks through Leith might be a bit challenging.
Could they still dock ships as big as that in Leith nowadays
There are plans to build a ferry terminal at Cockenzie. Sounds a good idea as long as something is done about the Edinburgh City Bypass.
Presumably the Bank of England financial models suggest that inflation is only transitory. So as interest rate increases only has an impact on inflation in around 2 years time and that inflation then is back to "normal" it is not worth increasing rates now? The problem is whether the model is correct and whether the risk is on the upside or downside.
34. In the MPC’s central projections in the May Monetary Policy Report, UK GDP growth had been expected to slow sharply over the first half of the forecast period and, although the labour market had been expected to tighten slightly further in the near term, the unemployment rate had been projected to rise to 5½% in three years’ time. CPI inflation had been expected to average slightly over 10% at its peak in 2022 Q4. Conditioned on the rising market-implied path for Bank Rate at that time and the MPC’s forecasting convention for future energy prices, CPI inflation had been projected to fall to a little above the 2% target in two years’ time, largely reflecting the waning influence of external factors, and to be well below the target in three years, mainly reflecting weaker domestic pressures. The risks to the inflation projection had been judged to be skewed to the upside at these points.
6-3 for 0.25% with 3 voting for 0.5%. That's very likely to be the BoE forming the bulk of the majority and the outsiders wanting more radical action.
As inflation bounds ahead the real rate of interest, of course, becomes more and more radically negative. An increase of 0.25% and then a delay of 2 months means that our monetary policy is in fact becoming even looser at a time of very high and increasing inflation. The hope is that these external factors are transitory but in the meantime we will see wages, food prices and pretty much everything else going up. To be blunt, I really cannot follow the logic of the majority.
Bailey doesn't want the blame for crushing the economy with aggressive interest rate increases.
He'd rather let inflation crush it with soaring costs, and avoid the blame.
Either way, its surely going to get crushed eventually, along with every advanced Western economy out there
What a shame if that happens on Boris Johnson's watch and as a consequence he is forced into ignominious retirement.
The giant cloud inside that silver lining for you is what happens after Biden.
A thought never far from my mind.
Would I accept more Johnson as the price for no Trump 2?
Lord take me now for this, but I think I would yes.
Nothing stops Trump 24 now, the Democrats have blown it. Biden was a disastrous pick, Harris worse. There's a reason she got like minus 500% in the primaries. And both will be revenge impeached after Novembers slaughter. Gonna get very messy.
He may not be the candidate.
Did you see the Georgia primaries? Kemp beat Trump's candidate 3-to-1, and even Raffsenberger got through without a runoff.
I mention this because I think lots of Republicans want Trumpian policies, but they don't actually want Trump. A majority of Republicans think the Party would do better with another candidate - and only 43% want him to stand again.
In a couple of the strawpolls that have happened this year (most importantly, the Conservatve Summit in Denver this month), it has not been Trump topping the list, but DeSantis.
DeSantis has moved ahead of Trump now in Republican nomination market on PredictIt, but is well behind on Bet365. I think PredictIt is right, and DeSantis should be the (narrow) favourite.
NEW: The Tory candidate in the Wakefield by-election has said voters should still back the Conservatives because “we still trust GPs” after Harold Shipman killed 250 people.
Nadeem Ahmed says Imran Ahmad Khan was just "one bad apple".
Tories.... 'fewer child sexual assaulters than you'd think' Marketing genius
One…bad…apple. Jesus. Don’t these people remember the second half of that phrase?
Don't spoil the whole bunch, girl?
Rots the whole barrel.
Yes, sorry, I did know. Mine's the Jackson Five song. It's saying to a girl who's been hurt by a bad ex boyfriend that she shouldn't assume all boys are like that.
@Peston I apologise for my inaccurate language and getting it wrong in the tweet below. I should have said “a possible conclusion to be drawn…”, not “the only conclusion to be drawn…” I made a mistake, not for the first or last time. I am sorry (not for the first or last time)
If that's the best the Tories can come up with in a key by-election, they're in trouble. I know it's only a short clip, but - how can I put this? - he seems embarrassingly dense.
Note to all candidates - as well as not mentioning serial killers when being interviewed, it's usually best not to stand in front of one of your opponents' election posters. https://twitter.com/Tony_Diver/status/1537439707818209280
Yes, I saw that. Free publicity for Mr Herdson.
I doubt he would be disappointed if it made his opponents vote for Mr Herdson instead of Labour, tbf.
Presumably the Bank of England financial models suggest that inflation is only transitory. So as interest rate increases only has an impact on inflation in around 2 years time and that inflation then is back to "normal" it is not worth increasing rates now? The problem is whether the model is correct and whether the risk is on the upside or downside.
34. In the MPC’s central projections in the May Monetary Policy Report, UK GDP growth had been expected to slow sharply over the first half of the forecast period and, although the labour market had been expected to tighten slightly further in the near term, the unemployment rate had been projected to rise to 5½% in three years’ time. CPI inflation had been expected to average slightly over 10% at its peak in 2022 Q4. Conditioned on the rising market-implied path for Bank Rate at that time and the MPC’s forecasting convention for future energy prices, CPI inflation had been projected to fall to a little above the 2% target in two years’ time, largely reflecting the waning influence of external factors, and to be well below the target in three years, mainly reflecting weaker domestic pressures. The risks to the inflation projection had been judged to be skewed to the upside at these points.
6-3 for 0.25% with 3 voting for 0.5%. That's very likely to be the BoE forming the bulk of the majority and the outsiders wanting more radical action.
As inflation bounds ahead the real rate of interest, of course, becomes more and more radically negative. An increase of 0.25% and then a delay of 2 months means that our monetary policy is in fact becoming even looser at a time of very high and increasing inflation. The hope is that these external factors are transitory but in the meantime we will see wages, food prices and pretty much everything else going up. To be blunt, I really cannot follow the logic of the majority.
Bailey doesn't want the blame for crushing the economy with aggressive interest rate increases.
He'd rather let inflation crush it with soaring costs, and avoid the blame.
Either way, its surely going to get crushed eventually, along with every advanced Western economy out there
What a shame if that happens on Boris Johnson's watch and as a consequence he is forced into ignominious retirement.
The giant cloud inside that silver lining for you is what happens after Biden.
A thought never far from my mind.
Would I accept more Johnson as the price for no Trump 2?
Lord take me now for this, but I think I would yes.
Nothing stops Trump 24 now, the Democrats have blown it. Biden was a disastrous pick, Harris worse. There's a reason she got like minus 500% in the primaries. And both will be revenge impeached after Novembers slaughter. Gonna get very messy.
He may not be the candidate.
Did you see the Georgia primaries? Kemp beat Trump's candidate 3-to-1, and even Raffsenberger got through without a runoff.
I mention this because I think lots of Republicans want Trumpian policies, but they don't actually want Trump. A majority of Republicans think the Party would do better with another candidate - and only 43% want him to stand again.
In a couple of the strawpolls that have happened this year (most importantly, the Conservatve Summit in Denver this month), it has not been Trump topping the list, but DeSantis.
DeSantis has moved ahead of Trump now in Republican nomination market on PredictIt, but is well behind on Bet365. I think PredictIt is right, and DeSantis should be the (narrow) favourite.
Presumably the Bank of England financial models suggest that inflation is only transitory. So as interest rate increases only has an impact on inflation in around 2 years time and that inflation then is back to "normal" it is not worth increasing rates now? The problem is whether the model is correct and whether the risk is on the upside or downside.
34. In the MPC’s central projections in the May Monetary Policy Report, UK GDP growth had been expected to slow sharply over the first half of the forecast period and, although the labour market had been expected to tighten slightly further in the near term, the unemployment rate had been projected to rise to 5½% in three years’ time. CPI inflation had been expected to average slightly over 10% at its peak in 2022 Q4. Conditioned on the rising market-implied path for Bank Rate at that time and the MPC’s forecasting convention for future energy prices, CPI inflation had been projected to fall to a little above the 2% target in two years’ time, largely reflecting the waning influence of external factors, and to be well below the target in three years, mainly reflecting weaker domestic pressures. The risks to the inflation projection had been judged to be skewed to the upside at these points.
6-3 for 0.25% with 3 voting for 0.5%. That's very likely to be the BoE forming the bulk of the majority and the outsiders wanting more radical action.
As inflation bounds ahead the real rate of interest, of course, becomes more and more radically negative. An increase of 0.25% and then a delay of 2 months means that our monetary policy is in fact becoming even looser at a time of very high and increasing inflation. The hope is that these external factors are transitory but in the meantime we will see wages, food prices and pretty much everything else going up. To be blunt, I really cannot follow the logic of the majority.
Bailey doesn't want the blame for crushing the economy with aggressive interest rate increases.
He'd rather let inflation crush it with soaring costs, and avoid the blame.
Either way, its surely going to get crushed eventually, along with every advanced Western economy out there
What a shame if that happens on Boris Johnson's watch and as a consequence he is forced into ignominious retirement.
The giant cloud inside that silver lining for you is what happens after Biden.
A thought never far from my mind.
Would I accept more Johnson as the price for no Trump 2?
Lord take me now for this, but I think I would yes.
I think you would be 100% correct in that calculation, from your political viewpoint.
Trump 2 would be Trumpier than Trump 1 surely. The party is being purged. Neo-cons are getting targeted and beaten in primaries by Trump backed candidates. The ones that are even bothering to stand. Some just threw in the towel and did not bother.
The GOP is a dumpster fire.
https://twitter.com/paulwaldman1/status/1537431472365195269 "Republican gubernatorial candidate Ryan Kelley’s recent arrest by the FBI for his suspected involvement in the Jan. 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol appears to have boosted his name recognition and favorability among GOP voters in Michigan"
There’s no hope for the USA . It’s fast becoming a failed state .
There was a YouGov poll earlier this year that showed that 46% Americans think a civil war is likely in their lifetimes, with only 36% thinking it is unlikely.
I do wonder if some Deep Red State legislature will seek to reintroduce anti-miscegenation laws.
Presumably the Bank of England financial models suggest that inflation is only transitory. So as interest rate increases only has an impact on inflation in around 2 years time and that inflation then is back to "normal" it is not worth increasing rates now? The problem is whether the model is correct and whether the risk is on the upside or downside.
34. In the MPC’s central projections in the May Monetary Policy Report, UK GDP growth had been expected to slow sharply over the first half of the forecast period and, although the labour market had been expected to tighten slightly further in the near term, the unemployment rate had been projected to rise to 5½% in three years’ time. CPI inflation had been expected to average slightly over 10% at its peak in 2022 Q4. Conditioned on the rising market-implied path for Bank Rate at that time and the MPC’s forecasting convention for future energy prices, CPI inflation had been projected to fall to a little above the 2% target in two years’ time, largely reflecting the waning influence of external factors, and to be well below the target in three years, mainly reflecting weaker domestic pressures. The risks to the inflation projection had been judged to be skewed to the upside at these points.
6-3 for 0.25% with 3 voting for 0.5%. That's very likely to be the BoE forming the bulk of the majority and the outsiders wanting more radical action.
As inflation bounds ahead the real rate of interest, of course, becomes more and more radically negative. An increase of 0.25% and then a delay of 2 months means that our monetary policy is in fact becoming even looser at a time of very high and increasing inflation. The hope is that these external factors are transitory but in the meantime we will see wages, food prices and pretty much everything else going up. To be blunt, I really cannot follow the logic of the majority.
Bailey doesn't want the blame for crushing the economy with aggressive interest rate increases.
He'd rather let inflation crush it with soaring costs, and avoid the blame.
Either way, its surely going to get crushed eventually, along with every advanced Western economy out there
What a shame if that happens on Boris Johnson's watch and as a consequence he is forced into ignominious retirement.
The giant cloud inside that silver lining for you is what happens after Biden.
A thought never far from my mind.
Would I accept more Johnson as the price for no Trump 2?
Lord take me now for this, but I think I would yes.
Nothing stops Trump 24 now, the Democrats have blown it. Biden was a disastrous pick, Harris worse. There's a reason she got like minus 500% in the primaries. And both will be revenge impeached after Novembers slaughter. Gonna get very messy.
He may not be the candidate.
Did you see the Georgia primaries? Kemp beat Trump's candidate 3-to-1, and even Raffsenberger got through without a runoff.
I mention this because I think lots of Republicans want Trumpian policies, but they don't actually want Trump. A majority of Republicans think the Party would do better with another candidate - and only 43% want him to stand again.
In a couple of the strawpolls that have happened this year (most importantly, the Conservatve Summit in Denver this month), it has not been Trump topping the list, but DeSantis.
DeSantis has moved ahead of Trump now in Republican nomination market on PredictIt, but is well behind on Bet365. I think PredictIt is right, and DeSantis should be the (narrow) favourite.
I’ve said before I don’t think Trump should be the candidate but I would disagree that DeSantis should be the favourite. While some of the results have shown that Trump maybe doesn’t have the influence he had, other results do. DeSantis is young enough where he can wait and he’s smart enough to know that risking Trump’s ire by running directly against him risks a future bid.
Presumably the Bank of England financial models suggest that inflation is only transitory. So as interest rate increases only has an impact on inflation in around 2 years time and that inflation then is back to "normal" it is not worth increasing rates now? The problem is whether the model is correct and whether the risk is on the upside or downside.
34. In the MPC’s central projections in the May Monetary Policy Report, UK GDP growth had been expected to slow sharply over the first half of the forecast period and, although the labour market had been expected to tighten slightly further in the near term, the unemployment rate had been projected to rise to 5½% in three years’ time. CPI inflation had been expected to average slightly over 10% at its peak in 2022 Q4. Conditioned on the rising market-implied path for Bank Rate at that time and the MPC’s forecasting convention for future energy prices, CPI inflation had been projected to fall to a little above the 2% target in two years’ time, largely reflecting the waning influence of external factors, and to be well below the target in three years, mainly reflecting weaker domestic pressures. The risks to the inflation projection had been judged to be skewed to the upside at these points.
6-3 for 0.25% with 3 voting for 0.5%. That's very likely to be the BoE forming the bulk of the majority and the outsiders wanting more radical action.
As inflation bounds ahead the real rate of interest, of course, becomes more and more radically negative. An increase of 0.25% and then a delay of 2 months means that our monetary policy is in fact becoming even looser at a time of very high and increasing inflation. The hope is that these external factors are transitory but in the meantime we will see wages, food prices and pretty much everything else going up. To be blunt, I really cannot follow the logic of the majority.
Bailey doesn't want the blame for crushing the economy with aggressive interest rate increases.
He'd rather let inflation crush it with soaring costs, and avoid the blame.
Either way, its surely going to get crushed eventually, along with every advanced Western economy out there
What a shame if that happens on Boris Johnson's watch and as a consequence he is forced into ignominious retirement.
The giant cloud inside that silver lining for you is what happens after Biden.
A thought never far from my mind.
Would I accept more Johnson as the price for no Trump 2?
Lord take me now for this, but I think I would yes.
Nothing stops Trump 24 now, the Democrats have blown it. Biden was a disastrous pick, Harris worse. There's a reason she got like minus 500% in the primaries. And both will be revenge impeached after Novembers slaughter. Gonna get very messy.
He may not be the candidate.
Did you see the Georgia primaries? Kemp beat Trump's candidate 3-to-1, and even Raffsenberger got through without a runoff.
I mention this because I think lots of Republicans want Trumpian policies, but they don't actually want Trump. A majority of Republicans think the Party would do better with another candidate - and only 43% want him to stand again.
In a couple of the strawpolls that have happened this year (most importantly, the Conservatve Summit in Denver this month), it has not been Trump topping the list, but DeSantis.
DeSantis has moved ahead of Trump now in Republican nomination market on PredictIt, but is well behind on Bet365. I think PredictIt is right, and DeSantis should be the (narrow) favourite.
Trouble is, can DeSantis carry some of the Rustbelt states like Trump did in 2016? I think many repubs aren't confident.
Headline: Scotland to Europe ferry link 'to return in 2023'
Body: 'A statement of intent released by DFDS and Ptarmigan Shipping reads: “Ptarmigan Shipping and DFDS have signed an agreement with the intention to further investigate the possibility for a new ferry route between Rosyth and Zeebrugge"... SNP MP Douglas Chapman... [said] "I am hugely excited by this announcement of further investigating the possibility to start a direct freight service between Rosyth and Zeebrugge in 2023"'
If Dougie is hugely excited by an agreement to investigate the possibility of doing something, Dunfermline and West Fife must be duller than I'd anticipated.
Ever been there? It's not been the same since the mines closed, not to mention the naval dockyard. Or the paper mill. Amazon is almost as good as it gets.
I'm actually surprised it's not to run from Leith, but there may be some technical issue of which I am unaware. And of course Rosyth is mcuh easier of access, just off the M-way, than the middle ofr a large conurbation, even if the seaside road is relatively clear by Edinburgh standards - having two road bridges is a big help.
Driving freight trucks through Leith might be a bit challenging.
Could they still dock ships as big as that in Leith nowadays
There are plans to build a ferry terminal at Cockenzie. Sounds a good idea as long as something is done about the Edinburgh City Bypass.
Headline: Scotland to Europe ferry link 'to return in 2023'
Body: 'A statement of intent released by DFDS and Ptarmigan Shipping reads: “Ptarmigan Shipping and DFDS have signed an agreement with the intention to further investigate the possibility for a new ferry route between Rosyth and Zeebrugge"... SNP MP Douglas Chapman... [said] "I am hugely excited by this announcement of further investigating the possibility to start a direct freight service between Rosyth and Zeebrugge in 2023"'
If Dougie is hugely excited by an agreement to investigate the possibility of doing something, Dunfermline and West Fife must be duller than I'd anticipated.
Ever been there? It's not been the same since the mines closed, not to mention the naval dockyard. Or the paper mill. Amazon is almost as good as it gets.
I'm actually surprised it's not to run from Leith, but there may be some technical issue of which I am unaware. And of course Rosyth is mcuh easier of access, just off the M-way, than the middle ofr a large conurbation, even if the seaside road is relatively clear by Edinburgh standards - having two road bridges is a big help.
Driving freight trucks through Leith might be a bit challenging.
Could they still dock ships as big as that in Leith nowadays
There are plans to build a ferry terminal at Cockenzie. Sounds a good idea as long as something is done about the Edinburgh City Bypass.
Bury it in six feet of molten lead and start again. I nearly had a bad crash on it after dodging a Chelsea tractor that didn’t pay attention to his surroundings. I hit a bunch of debris that was scattered over the carriageway from a damaged verge and the adverse camber knocked my rear wheels loose. Ended up in a four wheel skid at 70 and only got out of it thanks to counter-steering just well enough for the traction control to bail me out. The Eurobeat I had on Spotify was a nice touch at least.
Well firstly a lot of people pay a lot more than the loss leader £1 slot. £5 is pretty standard or you pay equivalent of a type of subscription. But also vast economy of scale and also you aren't ever ordering £5 of shopping, most people are ordering say £100 weekly shop 40 odd weeks of the year, so lots of profit margin in that. Same way as Amazon offer "free" delivery.
Also, the likes of Ocado, the picking is basically all automated by robots in purpose built facilities.
There's a minimum purchase of £40 to get the £1 rate (no subscription needed), but it's always available, 7 days a week, if you're not too worried about it coming in the evening. And if it's a loss leader it's a very persistent one - they've been doing it for years now. I think it's just a cross-subsidy, but my point is that it's such a bargain that it will erode supermarkets for physical sale, in the same way that bookshops have been eroded by Amazon.
Sure, if you're in the supermarket you can examine a banana and ponder whether it's green enough, just as in a bookshop you can browse. But busy people choose speed and convenience every time.
You would have thought that a bit like WFH, after massive uptick in online food shopping during COVID, that would led to a similar revolution to Amazon and book stores. I might be wrong, but fairly certain I read that hasn't been the case, as soon as restrictions were lessened / COVID levels dropped, people were steaming back down to the physical locations.
My wife loves delivery for bulk or dry goods, but always goes to the physical shop for fruit & veg, fresh meat, salads, dairy etc. mostly because the delivery guys pick out the crap or nearly-out-of-date versions of fresh produce.
The other factor is substitutions. There are plenty of things that I have in mind that what I really want to buy is item X - but if they're sold out I'd take item Y, then Z (and possibly then A, then B...). That's something that's difficult even to communicate to a spouse, let alone a random picker on the supermarket shop floor (if they gave you an option. Which they don't).
Substitutions is the absolute worst thing about online food shopping. You literally don't know until it arrives and you might have been really needing something (or looking forward to it) and then they don't have it. I think that really sours a lot of people's experience.
Any other online shopping experience doing that, they wouldn't survive.
You can always send the substitution back.
Indeed. But then you have nothing when you might need (or really want) something.
I haven't used supermarket delivery since I bought a car.
Well, that's another factor: it's 10 mile round trip to our preferred supermarket; 6 miles to the nearest. I haven't worked it out but I suspect the delivery cost is less than the car mileage cost.
I think supermarket deliveries are excellent, but we stopped because my wife wanted to go to the supermarket. I think she just wants to escape from me for a few hours.
Faro harbour eating an omelette and having a beer before taking the coastal train along the Algarve.
Platform numbers at the smaller stations on the Algarve line are often not shown on screens: you must consult a printed-out schedule pasted on the information board on the platform itself, and move to another platform if necessary. Faro being larger, this may not be the case - but be aware.
No it isn't obvious. We have just got on the train. I'll let you know if we land up anywhere unexpected.
Presumably the Bank of England financial models suggest that inflation is only transitory. So as interest rate increases only has an impact on inflation in around 2 years time and that inflation then is back to "normal" it is not worth increasing rates now? The problem is whether the model is correct and whether the risk is on the upside or downside.
34. In the MPC’s central projections in the May Monetary Policy Report, UK GDP growth had been expected to slow sharply over the first half of the forecast period and, although the labour market had been expected to tighten slightly further in the near term, the unemployment rate had been projected to rise to 5½% in three years’ time. CPI inflation had been expected to average slightly over 10% at its peak in 2022 Q4. Conditioned on the rising market-implied path for Bank Rate at that time and the MPC’s forecasting convention for future energy prices, CPI inflation had been projected to fall to a little above the 2% target in two years’ time, largely reflecting the waning influence of external factors, and to be well below the target in three years, mainly reflecting weaker domestic pressures. The risks to the inflation projection had been judged to be skewed to the upside at these points.
6-3 for 0.25% with 3 voting for 0.5%. That's very likely to be the BoE forming the bulk of the majority and the outsiders wanting more radical action.
As inflation bounds ahead the real rate of interest, of course, becomes more and more radically negative. An increase of 0.25% and then a delay of 2 months means that our monetary policy is in fact becoming even looser at a time of very high and increasing inflation. The hope is that these external factors are transitory but in the meantime we will see wages, food prices and pretty much everything else going up. To be blunt, I really cannot follow the logic of the majority.
Bailey doesn't want the blame for crushing the economy with aggressive interest rate increases.
He'd rather let inflation crush it with soaring costs, and avoid the blame.
Either way, its surely going to get crushed eventually, along with every advanced Western economy out there
What a shame if that happens on Boris Johnson's watch and as a consequence he is forced into ignominious retirement.
The giant cloud inside that silver lining for you is what happens after Biden.
A thought never far from my mind.
Would I accept more Johnson as the price for no Trump 2?
Lord take me now for this, but I think I would yes.
I think you would be 100% correct in that calculation, from your political viewpoint.
Trump 2 would be Trumpier than Trump 1 surely. The party is being purged. Neo-cons are getting targeted and beaten in primaries by Trump backed candidates. The ones that are even bothering to stand. Some just threw in the towel and did not bother.
The GOP is a dumpster fire.
https://twitter.com/paulwaldman1/status/1537431472365195269 "Republican gubernatorial candidate Ryan Kelley’s recent arrest by the FBI for his suspected involvement in the Jan. 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol appears to have boosted his name recognition and favorability among GOP voters in Michigan"
There’s no hope for the USA . It’s fast becoming a failed state .
There was a YouGov poll earlier this year that showed that 46% Americans think a civil war is likely in their lifetimes, with only 36% thinking it is unlikely.
I do wonder if some Deep Red State legislature will seek to reintroduce anti-miscegenation laws.
I saw a poll suggesting that in some areas of the states, expectation of secession is astonishingly high.
NEW: The Tory candidate in the Wakefield by-election has said voters should still back the Conservatives because “we still trust GPs” after Harold Shipman killed 250 people.
Nadeem Ahmed says Imran Ahmad Khan was just "one bad apple".
Tories.... 'fewer child sexual assaulters than you'd think' Marketing genius
One…bad…apple. Jesus. Don’t these people remember the second half of that phrase?
Don't spoil the whole bunch, girl?
Rots the whole barrel.
Yes, sorry, I did know. Mine's the Jackson Five song. It's saying to a girl who's been hurt by a bad ex boyfriend that she shouldn't assume all boys are like that.
Presumably the Bank of England financial models suggest that inflation is only transitory. So as interest rate increases only has an impact on inflation in around 2 years time and that inflation then is back to "normal" it is not worth increasing rates now? The problem is whether the model is correct and whether the risk is on the upside or downside.
34. In the MPC’s central projections in the May Monetary Policy Report, UK GDP growth had been expected to slow sharply over the first half of the forecast period and, although the labour market had been expected to tighten slightly further in the near term, the unemployment rate had been projected to rise to 5½% in three years’ time. CPI inflation had been expected to average slightly over 10% at its peak in 2022 Q4. Conditioned on the rising market-implied path for Bank Rate at that time and the MPC’s forecasting convention for future energy prices, CPI inflation had been projected to fall to a little above the 2% target in two years’ time, largely reflecting the waning influence of external factors, and to be well below the target in three years, mainly reflecting weaker domestic pressures. The risks to the inflation projection had been judged to be skewed to the upside at these points.
6-3 for 0.25% with 3 voting for 0.5%. That's very likely to be the BoE forming the bulk of the majority and the outsiders wanting more radical action.
As inflation bounds ahead the real rate of interest, of course, becomes more and more radically negative. An increase of 0.25% and then a delay of 2 months means that our monetary policy is in fact becoming even looser at a time of very high and increasing inflation. The hope is that these external factors are transitory but in the meantime we will see wages, food prices and pretty much everything else going up. To be blunt, I really cannot follow the logic of the majority.
Bailey doesn't want the blame for crushing the economy with aggressive interest rate increases.
He'd rather let inflation crush it with soaring costs, and avoid the blame.
Either way, its surely going to get crushed eventually, along with every advanced Western economy out there
What a shame if that happens on Boris Johnson's watch and as a consequence he is forced into ignominious retirement.
The giant cloud inside that silver lining for you is what happens after Biden.
A thought never far from my mind.
Would I accept more Johnson as the price for no Trump 2?
Lord take me now for this, but I think I would yes.
Nothing stops Trump 24 now, the Democrats have blown it. Biden was a disastrous pick, Harris worse. There's a reason she got like minus 500% in the primaries. And both will be revenge impeached after Novembers slaughter. Gonna get very messy.
He may not be the candidate.
Did you see the Georgia primaries? Kemp beat Trump's candidate 3-to-1, and even Raffsenberger got through without a runoff.
I mention this because I think lots of Republicans want Trumpian policies, but they don't actually want Trump. A majority of Republicans think the Party would do better with another candidate - and only 43% want him to stand again.
In a couple of the strawpolls that have happened this year (most importantly, the Conservatve Summit in Denver this month), it has not been Trump topping the list, but DeSantis.
DeSantis has moved ahead of Trump now in Republican nomination market on PredictIt, but is well behind on Bet365. I think PredictIt is right, and DeSantis should be the (narrow) favourite.
DeSantis is clearly setting himself up to run, so does Trump endorse him, or attack him?
Presumably the Bank of England financial models suggest that inflation is only transitory. So as interest rate increases only has an impact on inflation in around 2 years time and that inflation then is back to "normal" it is not worth increasing rates now? The problem is whether the model is correct and whether the risk is on the upside or downside.
34. In the MPC’s central projections in the May Monetary Policy Report, UK GDP growth had been expected to slow sharply over the first half of the forecast period and, although the labour market had been expected to tighten slightly further in the near term, the unemployment rate had been projected to rise to 5½% in three years’ time. CPI inflation had been expected to average slightly over 10% at its peak in 2022 Q4. Conditioned on the rising market-implied path for Bank Rate at that time and the MPC’s forecasting convention for future energy prices, CPI inflation had been projected to fall to a little above the 2% target in two years’ time, largely reflecting the waning influence of external factors, and to be well below the target in three years, mainly reflecting weaker domestic pressures. The risks to the inflation projection had been judged to be skewed to the upside at these points.
6-3 for 0.25% with 3 voting for 0.5%. That's very likely to be the BoE forming the bulk of the majority and the outsiders wanting more radical action.
As inflation bounds ahead the real rate of interest, of course, becomes more and more radically negative. An increase of 0.25% and then a delay of 2 months means that our monetary policy is in fact becoming even looser at a time of very high and increasing inflation. The hope is that these external factors are transitory but in the meantime we will see wages, food prices and pretty much everything else going up. To be blunt, I really cannot follow the logic of the majority.
Bailey doesn't want the blame for crushing the economy with aggressive interest rate increases.
He'd rather let inflation crush it with soaring costs, and avoid the blame.
Either way, its surely going to get crushed eventually, along with every advanced Western economy out there
What a shame if that happens on Boris Johnson's watch and as a consequence he is forced into ignominious retirement.
The giant cloud inside that silver lining for you is what happens after Biden.
A thought never far from my mind.
Would I accept more Johnson as the price for no Trump 2?
Lord take me now for this, but I think I would yes.
I think you would be 100% correct in that calculation, from your political viewpoint.
Trump 2 would be Trumpier than Trump 1 surely. The party is being purged. Neo-cons are getting targeted and beaten in primaries by Trump backed candidates. The ones that are even bothering to stand. Some just threw in the towel and did not bother.
The GOP is a dumpster fire.
https://twitter.com/paulwaldman1/status/1537431472365195269 "Republican gubernatorial candidate Ryan Kelley’s recent arrest by the FBI for his suspected involvement in the Jan. 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol appears to have boosted his name recognition and favorability among GOP voters in Michigan"
Makes sense. Anything that feeds into the "they're all out to get us" narrative will have that effect.
Bear in mind in Michigan there may be a specific factor at play, namely the collapse of the Whitmer kidnap conspiracy trial after it was discovered that the plot ‘leaders’ were paid FBI informants. Hence the scepticism.
Presumably the Bank of England financial models suggest that inflation is only transitory. So as interest rate increases only has an impact on inflation in around 2 years time and that inflation then is back to "normal" it is not worth increasing rates now? The problem is whether the model is correct and whether the risk is on the upside or downside.
34. In the MPC’s central projections in the May Monetary Policy Report, UK GDP growth had been expected to slow sharply over the first half of the forecast period and, although the labour market had been expected to tighten slightly further in the near term, the unemployment rate had been projected to rise to 5½% in three years’ time. CPI inflation had been expected to average slightly over 10% at its peak in 2022 Q4. Conditioned on the rising market-implied path for Bank Rate at that time and the MPC’s forecasting convention for future energy prices, CPI inflation had been projected to fall to a little above the 2% target in two years’ time, largely reflecting the waning influence of external factors, and to be well below the target in three years, mainly reflecting weaker domestic pressures. The risks to the inflation projection had been judged to be skewed to the upside at these points.
6-3 for 0.25% with 3 voting for 0.5%. That's very likely to be the BoE forming the bulk of the majority and the outsiders wanting more radical action.
As inflation bounds ahead the real rate of interest, of course, becomes more and more radically negative. An increase of 0.25% and then a delay of 2 months means that our monetary policy is in fact becoming even looser at a time of very high and increasing inflation. The hope is that these external factors are transitory but in the meantime we will see wages, food prices and pretty much everything else going up. To be blunt, I really cannot follow the logic of the majority.
Bailey doesn't want the blame for crushing the economy with aggressive interest rate increases.
He'd rather let inflation crush it with soaring costs, and avoid the blame.
Either way, its surely going to get crushed eventually, along with every advanced Western economy out there
What a shame if that happens on Boris Johnson's watch and as a consequence he is forced into ignominious retirement.
The giant cloud inside that silver lining for you is what happens after Biden.
A thought never far from my mind.
Would I accept more Johnson as the price for no Trump 2?
Lord take me now for this, but I think I would yes.
Nothing stops Trump 24 now, the Democrats have blown it. Biden was a disastrous pick, Harris worse. There's a reason she got like minus 500% in the primaries. And both will be revenge impeached after Novembers slaughter. Gonna get very messy.
He may not be the candidate.
Did you see the Georgia primaries? Kemp beat Trump's candidate 3-to-1, and even Raffsenberger got through without a runoff.
I mention this because I think lots of Republicans want Trumpian policies, but they don't actually want Trump. A majority of Republicans think the Party would do better with another candidate - and only 43% want him to stand again.
In a couple of the strawpolls that have happened this year (most importantly, the Conservatve Summit in Denver this month), it has not been Trump topping the list, but DeSantis.
DeSantis has moved ahead of Trump now in Republican nomination market on PredictIt, but is well behind on Bet365. I think PredictIt is right, and DeSantis should be the (narrow) favourite.
Trouble is, can DeSantis carry some of the Rustbelt states like Trump did in 2016? I think many repubs aren't confident.
That would not be trouble, that would be serendipity.
I am starting to think that everything is completely fucked and everything's probably not going to be ok.
Personally I think things are about to get a lot better. Politically, we're about to get rid of stale leader, economically, we're experiencing the headwinds of artificially created issues that cannot (much as some would wish it) be sustained indefinitely, after which the situation will improve. Geopolitically, we seem to be entering a 'multi-polar' phase, where the USA can no longer dictate what happens to the rest of the world - the end of that isn't pretty, but one would not expect it to be. The UK has every chance of taking advantage of a fluid and ever-changing world - it is what we're good at after all.
I am starting to think that everything is completely fucked and everything's probably not going to be ok.
Car problems?
The car game is good because you make money when you buy a car, not when you sell it. When the economy gets bad it's possible to swoop on bargains via some choice search terms on FB/forums ('incomplete project', etc.)
I just meant the British economy is getting rod knock yet we've got Johnson and his ship of fools concentrating on stupid shit like Rwanda and blowing up the 6 Counties Protocol rather than anything that would actually improve things. Fizzy Lizzy is bestriding the world stage in permanent campaiging mode for Johnson's job despite the fact that she is as thick as fuck. Sunak is getting smaller and is soon expected to collapse into a singularity. Penny Dreadful has caused some pb tories to experience their first quality erections since Whiter Shade of Pale was number one despite the Flowers for Algernon trajectory of her ministerial career. Where is the hope?
@Peston I apologise for my inaccurate language and getting it wrong in the tweet below. I should have said “a possible conclusion to be drawn…”, not “the only conclusion to be drawn…” I made a mistake, not for the first or last time. I am sorry (not for the first or last time)
NEW: The Tory candidate in the Wakefield by-election has said voters should still back the Conservatives because “we still trust GPs” after Harold Shipman killed 250 people.
Nadeem Ahmed says Imran Ahmad Khan was just "one bad apple".
Tories.... 'fewer child sexual assaulters than you'd think' Marketing genius
One…bad…apple. Jesus. Don’t these people remember the second half of that phrase?
Don't spoil the whole bunch, girl?
Rots the whole barrel.
Yes, sorry, I did know. Mine's the Jackson Five song. It's saying to a girl who's been hurt by a bad ex boyfriend that she shouldn't assume all boys are like that.
Written for The Jacksons, but sung by The Osmonds.
Out of interest, pre pandemic the likes of Tesco and Asda, their big stores were all 24hrs. That stopped with COVID, they were only allowed to open a restricted number of hours, have they gone back to normal or has 24hr shopping now become a thing of the past?
My nearest 'big Asda' is open 24hrs. The Tesco's seem to be closing at midnight (though I don't know if that's a change to pre-covid times round here).
NEW: The Tory candidate in the Wakefield by-election has said voters should still back the Conservatives because “we still trust GPs” after Harold Shipman killed 250 people.
Nadeem Ahmed says Imran Ahmad Khan was just "one bad apple".
Tories.... 'fewer child sexual assaulters than you'd think' Marketing genius
One…bad…apple. Jesus. Don’t these people remember the second half of that phrase?
Don't spoil the whole bunch, girl?
Rots the whole barrel.
Yes, sorry, I did know. Mine's the Jackson Five song. It's saying to a girl who's been hurt by a bad ex boyfriend that she shouldn't assume all boys are like that.
Thought so but wasn’t sure. My humour circuit is a bit broken today.
I am starting to think that everything is completely fucked and everything's probably not going to be ok.
Personally I think things are about to get a lot better. Politically, we're about to get rid of stale leader, economically, we're experiencing the headwinds of artificially created issues that cannot (much as some would wish it) be sustained indefinitely, after which the situation will improve. Geopolitically, we seem to be entering a 'multi-polar' phase, where the USA can no longer dictate what happens to the rest of the world - the end of that isn't pretty, but one would not expect it to be. The UK has every chance of taking advantage of a fluid and ever-changing world - it is what we're good at after all.
Extraordinary stat via #WATO: in 2008, when oil prices peaked at $144/barrel, no one in Britain paid more than 120p per litre of petrol. Today, oil price is $113 but pump prices 186p litre. Difference is collapse in sterling from $2 to $1.20. Welcome to the Brexit. https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1537415189590589446
Extraordinary stat via #WATO: in 2008, when oil prices peaked at $144/barrel, no one in Britain paid more than 120p per litre of petrol. Today, oil price is $113 but pump prices 186p litre. Difference is collapse in sterling from $2 to $1.20. Welcome to the Brexit. https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1537415189590589446
Which would be a good point, if the Euro wasn’t trading at $1.05 right now.
Extraordinary stat via #WATO: in 2008, when oil prices peaked at $144/barrel, no one in Britain paid more than 120p per litre of petrol. Today, oil price is $113 but pump prices 186p litre. Difference is collapse in sterling from $2 to $1.20. Welcome to the Brexit. https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1537415189590589446
Sterling was $1.45 in June 2016, and that was a high. It had been $1.35 in the years before. “Welcome to the financial crisis” might be more appropriate, but Simon Nixon’s become quite shrill recently.
NEW: The Tory candidate in the Wakefield by-election has said voters should still back the Conservatives because “we still trust GPs” after Harold Shipman killed 250 people.
Nadeem Ahmed says Imran Ahmad Khan was just "one bad apple".
Extraordinary stat via #WATO: in 2008, when oil prices peaked at $144/barrel, no one in Britain paid more than 120p per litre of petrol. Today, oil price is $113 but pump prices 186p litre. Difference is collapse in sterling from $2 to $1.20. Welcome to the Brexit. https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1537415189590589446
If that's the best the Tories can come up with in a key by-election, they're in trouble. I know it's only a short clip, but - how can I put this? - he seems embarrassingly dense.
Note to all candidates - as well as not mentioning serial killers when being interviewed, it's usually best not to stand in front of one of your opponents' election posters. https://twitter.com/Tony_Diver/status/1537439707818209280
We are truly living in the Ianucciverse.
Missed a trick in not asking him about Cake, though.
NEW: The Tory candidate in the Wakefield by-election has said voters should still back the Conservatives because “we still trust GPs” after Harold Shipman killed 250 people.
Nadeem Ahmed says Imran Ahmad Khan was just "one bad apple".
Tories.... 'fewer child sexual assaulters than you'd think' Marketing genius
One…bad…apple. Jesus. Don’t these people remember the second half of that phrase?
Don't spoil the whole bunch, girl?
Rots the whole barrel.
Yes, sorry, I did know. Mine's the Jackson Five song. It's saying to a girl who's been hurt by a bad ex boyfriend that she shouldn't assume all boys are like that.
Presumably the Bank of England financial models suggest that inflation is only transitory. So as interest rate increases only has an impact on inflation in around 2 years time and that inflation then is back to "normal" it is not worth increasing rates now? The problem is whether the model is correct and whether the risk is on the upside or downside.
34. In the MPC’s central projections in the May Monetary Policy Report, UK GDP growth had been expected to slow sharply over the first half of the forecast period and, although the labour market had been expected to tighten slightly further in the near term, the unemployment rate had been projected to rise to 5½% in three years’ time. CPI inflation had been expected to average slightly over 10% at its peak in 2022 Q4. Conditioned on the rising market-implied path for Bank Rate at that time and the MPC’s forecasting convention for future energy prices, CPI inflation had been projected to fall to a little above the 2% target in two years’ time, largely reflecting the waning influence of external factors, and to be well below the target in three years, mainly reflecting weaker domestic pressures. The risks to the inflation projection had been judged to be skewed to the upside at these points.
6-3 for 0.25% with 3 voting for 0.5%. That's very likely to be the BoE forming the bulk of the majority and the outsiders wanting more radical action.
As inflation bounds ahead the real rate of interest, of course, becomes more and more radically negative. An increase of 0.25% and then a delay of 2 months means that our monetary policy is in fact becoming even looser at a time of very high and increasing inflation. The hope is that these external factors are transitory but in the meantime we will see wages, food prices and pretty much everything else going up. To be blunt, I really cannot follow the logic of the majority.
What on Earth do they do, when the Fed adds 75bps more to the US$ base rate next month?
At some point reality will hit them on the arse, and we’ll end up seeing 150bps in one go. That will wake everyone up.
Let's crack on with the 500bp now and then another 500bp if that doesn't work.
We have highest inflation since 1980 and we need a 1980 approach to deal with it 15% interest rates now!
...says a man with no mortgage!
(And presumably, with no income source dependent on people with mortgages!)
Correct no mortgage. Paid it off a long time ago. Never paid less than 6% interest.
Current borrowing rates are Fantasy Island. There needs to be a readjustment to ensure that borrowers pay real positive interest rates.
But I will settle for a 5% interest rate increase for the time being 👍
The current bout of inflation is shit for those who have savings, but it allows the real value of peoples' debts to be inflated away, and also means that house prices can come back in line with earnings without painful and difficult negative equity.
Covid and Vlad may have done us all a big favour in helping us rebalance our economy.
The current bout of inflation is not just sh8t for those with savings though. It is sh8t for anybody on a low or moderate wage, isn't it?
Presumably the Bank of England financial models suggest that inflation is only transitory. So as interest rate increases only has an impact on inflation in around 2 years time and that inflation then is back to "normal" it is not worth increasing rates now? The problem is whether the model is correct and whether the risk is on the upside or downside.
34. In the MPC’s central projections in the May Monetary Policy Report, UK GDP growth had been expected to slow sharply over the first half of the forecast period and, although the labour market had been expected to tighten slightly further in the near term, the unemployment rate had been projected to rise to 5½% in three years’ time. CPI inflation had been expected to average slightly over 10% at its peak in 2022 Q4. Conditioned on the rising market-implied path for Bank Rate at that time and the MPC’s forecasting convention for future energy prices, CPI inflation had been projected to fall to a little above the 2% target in two years’ time, largely reflecting the waning influence of external factors, and to be well below the target in three years, mainly reflecting weaker domestic pressures. The risks to the inflation projection had been judged to be skewed to the upside at these points.
6-3 for 0.25% with 3 voting for 0.5%. That's very likely to be the BoE forming the bulk of the majority and the outsiders wanting more radical action.
As inflation bounds ahead the real rate of interest, of course, becomes more and more radically negative. An increase of 0.25% and then a delay of 2 months means that our monetary policy is in fact becoming even looser at a time of very high and increasing inflation. The hope is that these external factors are transitory but in the meantime we will see wages, food prices and pretty much everything else going up. To be blunt, I really cannot follow the logic of the majority.
Bailey doesn't want the blame for crushing the economy with aggressive interest rate increases.
He'd rather let inflation crush it with soaring costs, and avoid the blame.
Either way, its surely going to get crushed eventually, along with every advanced Western economy out there
What a shame if that happens on Boris Johnson's watch and as a consequence he is forced into ignominious retirement.
The giant cloud inside that silver lining for you is what happens after Biden.
A thought never far from my mind.
Would I accept more Johnson as the price for no Trump 2?
Lord take me now for this, but I think I would yes.
Nothing stops Trump 24 now, the Democrats have blown it. Biden was a disastrous pick, Harris worse. There's a reason she got like minus 500% in the primaries. And both will be revenge impeached after Novembers slaughter. Gonna get very messy.
He may not be the candidate.
Did you see the Georgia primaries? Kemp beat Trump's candidate 3-to-1, and even Raffsenberger got through without a runoff.
I mention this because I think lots of Republicans want Trumpian policies, but they don't actually want Trump. A majority of Republicans think the Party would do better with another candidate - and only 43% want him to stand again.
In a couple of the strawpolls that have happened this year (most importantly, the Conservatve Summit in Denver this month), it has not been Trump topping the list, but DeSantis.
DeSantis has moved ahead of Trump now in Republican nomination market on PredictIt, but is well behind on Bet365. I think PredictIt is right, and DeSantis should be the (narrow) favourite.
DeSantis is clearly setting himself up to run, so does Trump endorse him, or attack him?
NEW: The Tory candidate in the Wakefield by-election has said voters should still back the Conservatives because “we still trust GPs” after Harold Shipman killed 250 people.
Nadeem Ahmed says Imran Ahmad Khan was just "one bad apple".
Tories.... 'fewer child sexual assaulters than you'd think' Marketing genius
One…bad…apple. Jesus. Don’t these people remember the second half of that phrase?
Don't spoil the whole bunch, girl?
Rots the whole barrel.
Yes, sorry, I did know. Mine's the Jackson Five song. It's saying to a girl who's been hurt by a bad ex boyfriend that she shouldn't assume all boys are like that.
Thought so but wasn’t sure. My humour circuit is a bit broken today.
Yes don't worry - it's no joking matter and I'm back in serious mode now.
Extraordinary stat via #WATO: in 2008, when oil prices peaked at $144/barrel, no one in Britain paid more than 120p per litre of petrol. Today, oil price is $113 but pump prices 186p litre. Difference is collapse in sterling from $2 to $1.20. Welcome to the Brexit. https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1537415189590589446
Every now and then you make reasonable and valid points. Then you come out of with utter garbage
Extraordinary stat via #WATO: in 2008, when oil prices peaked at $144/barrel, no one in Britain paid more than 120p per litre of petrol. Today, oil price is $113 but pump prices 186p litre. Difference is collapse in sterling from $2 to $1.20. Welcome to the Brexit. https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1537415189590589446
Every now and then you make reasonable and valid points. Then you come out of with utter garbage
I am starting to think that everything is completely fucked and everything's probably not going to be ok.
Personally I think things are about to get a lot better. Politically, we're about to get rid of stale leader, economically, we're experiencing the headwinds of artificially created issues that cannot (much as some would wish it) be sustained indefinitely, after which the situation will improve. Geopolitically, we seem to be entering a 'multi-polar' phase, where the USA can no longer dictate what happens to the rest of the world - the end of that isn't pretty, but one would not expect it to be. The UK has every chance of taking advantage of a fluid and ever-changing world - it is what we're good at after all.
NEW: The Tory candidate in the Wakefield by-election has said voters should still back the Conservatives because “we still trust GPs” after Harold Shipman killed 250 people.
Nadeem Ahmed says Imran Ahmad Khan was just "one bad apple".
Tories.... 'fewer child sexual assaulters than you'd think' Marketing genius
One…bad…apple. Jesus. Don’t these people remember the second half of that phrase?
Don't spoil the whole bunch, girl?
Rots the whole barrel.
Yes, sorry, I did know. Mine's the Jackson Five song. It's saying to a girl who's been hurt by a bad ex boyfriend that she shouldn't assume all boys are like that.
Written for The Jacksons, but sung by The Osmonds.
Ok accepted. Both, but I should have said The Osmonds song since it mainly is.
Extraordinary stat via #WATO: in 2008, when oil prices peaked at $144/barrel, no one in Britain paid more than 120p per litre of petrol. Today, oil price is $113 but pump prices 186p litre. Difference is collapse in sterling from $2 to $1.20. Welcome to the Brexit. https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1537415189590589446
Every now and then you make reasonable and valid points. Then you come out of with utter garbage
Why garbage? that's exactly the same point they made on the World at One. Apart from Johnson's crookery i thought it was the most interteresting factoid on the program
NEW: The Tory candidate in the Wakefield by-election has said voters should still back the Conservatives because “we still trust GPs” after Harold Shipman killed 250 people.
Nadeem Ahmed says Imran Ahmad Khan was just "one bad apple".
Tories.... 'fewer child sexual assaulters than you'd think' Marketing genius
One…bad…apple. Jesus. Don’t these people remember the second half of that phrase?
Don't spoil the whole bunch, girl?
Rots the whole barrel.
Yes, sorry, I did know. Mine's the Jackson Five song. It's saying to a girl who's been hurt by a bad ex boyfriend that she shouldn't assume all boys are like that.
Extraordinary stat via #WATO: in 2008, when oil prices peaked at $144/barrel, no one in Britain paid more than 120p per litre of petrol. Today, oil price is $113 but pump prices 186p litre. Difference is collapse in sterling from $2 to $1.20. Welcome to the Brexit. https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1537415189590589446
Every now and then you make reasonable and valid points. Then you come out of with utter garbage
Why garbage? that's exactly the same point they made on the World at One. Apart from Johnson's crookery i thought it was the most interteresting factoid on the program
factoid: an item of unreliable information that is reported and repeated so often that it becomes accepted as fact.
I would have paid good money to see Boycott watching this moment.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2022/jun/16/joe-root-and-jonny-bairstow-ignore-fixed-ideas-to-show-test-cricket-its-future ...In the Daily Telegraph the previous week Geoffrey Boycott explained to his readers that Root is a better batsman than his teammates because, unlike them, he “doesn’t play” Twenty20 cricket. “You never see Root play the scoop, ramp or any fancy shots,” Boycott wrote. “His technique is honed and has been from a young age to play proper cricket.” Now Southee is bowling just outside Root’s off stump, looking to take the ball away. It is only the second ball Root had faced that day. He could, probably should, leave it.
Instead he spreads his feet so he was facing square down the wicket, switches the bat around in his hands and flicks the ball over the heads of the slips. For six...
Extraordinary stat via #WATO: in 2008, when oil prices peaked at $144/barrel, no one in Britain paid more than 120p per litre of petrol. Today, oil price is $113 but pump prices 186p litre. Difference is collapse in sterling from $2 to $1.20. Welcome to the Brexit. https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1537415189590589446
Extraordinary stat via #WATO: in 2008, when oil prices peaked at $144/barrel, no one in Britain paid more than 120p per litre of petrol. Today, oil price is $113 but pump prices 186p litre. Difference is collapse in sterling from $2 to $1.20. Welcome to the Brexit. https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1537415189590589446
Every now and then you make reasonable and valid points. Then you come out of with utter garbage
Extraordinary stat via #WATO: in 2008, when oil prices peaked at $144/barrel, no one in Britain paid more than 120p per litre of petrol. Today, oil price is $113 but pump prices 186p litre. Difference is collapse in sterling from $2 to $1.20. Welcome to the Brexit. https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1537415189590589446
Every now and then you make reasonable and valid points. Then you come out of with utter garbage
Why garbage? that's exactly the same point they made on the World at One. Apart from Johnson's crookery i thought it was the most interteresting factoid on the program
Weren't the PB Leavers urging the fuel hauliers to pay higher wages when the driver shortage materialized? Presumably they're now doing just that. The costs will always filter down to the consumer eventually.
Extraordinary stat via #WATO: in 2008, when oil prices peaked at $144/barrel, no one in Britain paid more than 120p per litre of petrol. Today, oil price is $113 but pump prices 186p litre. Difference is collapse in sterling from $2 to $1.20. Welcome to the Brexit. https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1537415189590589446
You just cannot help yourself
Just joining the crowd as usual Big_G or does your post have a meaning?
I would have paid good money to see Boycott watching this moment.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2022/jun/16/joe-root-and-jonny-bairstow-ignore-fixed-ideas-to-show-test-cricket-its-future ...In the Daily Telegraph the previous week Geoffrey Boycott explained to his readers that Root is a better batsman than his teammates because, unlike them, he “doesn’t play” Twenty20 cricket. “You never see Root play the scoop, ramp or any fancy shots,” Boycott wrote. “His technique is honed and has been from a young age to play proper cricket.” Now Southee is bowling just outside Root’s off stump, looking to take the ball away. It is only the second ball Root had faced that day. He could, probably should, leave it.
Instead he spreads his feet so he was facing square down the wicket, switches the bat around in his hands and flicks the ball over the heads of the slips. For six...
Geoffrey can always fall back on his favourite 'well that was such a poor ball my mother could have hit it for 4 with a stick of rhubarb'
Extraordinary stat via #WATO: in 2008, when oil prices peaked at $144/barrel, no one in Britain paid more than 120p per litre of petrol. Today, oil price is $113 but pump prices 186p litre. Difference is collapse in sterling from $2 to $1.20. Welcome to the Brexit. https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1537415189590589446
Every now and then you make reasonable and valid points. Then you come out of with utter garbage
What exactly is garbage about this?
Because using $2 to the £1 in a comparison is cherry picking a massive historic outlier and not indictive of the historic norms.
Its a bit like saying I once got an amazing deal on a 5* resort in Florida, I paid $30 a night for it as indicative of problem with inflation compared it to what it would cost now i.e $500-600 a night....why was it so cheap, because when I went the Deepwater Horizon platform had just blown up and they thought the oil would destroy the Florida coast.
Extraordinary stat via #WATO: in 2008, when oil prices peaked at $144/barrel, no one in Britain paid more than 120p per litre of petrol. Today, oil price is $113 but pump prices 186p litre. Difference is collapse in sterling from $2 to $1.20. Welcome to the Brexit. https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1537415189590589446
Is that good news, or bad? I'll let you decide, after I describe them.
The 5th most popular is Arkansas's Asa Hutchinson. A strong conservative, he's running for president -- whether or not Trump runs. He's been about as anti-Trump as a Republican can be, in Arkansas.
The fourth most popular governor is West Virginia's Jim Justice. (He switched from being a Democrat during his first term.) He has followed moderate policies -- and has been the closest to Trump of the five, because of coal and West Virginia's politics, but, would, I believe, dump Trump in an instant, given a chance.)
The third most popular governor is Maryand's Larry Hogan. He is running for the presidency, and against Trump, and working to help anti-Trump Republicans across the nation.
The second most popular governor is Vermont's Phil Scott. He has been a consistent opponent of Trump.
The most popular governor is Massachusetts's Charlie Baker, a "fiscal conservative, and cultural liberal". Like Scott he has been an opponent of Trump.
Extraordinary stat via #WATO: in 2008, when oil prices peaked at $144/barrel, no one in Britain paid more than 120p per litre of petrol. Today, oil price is $113 but pump prices 186p litre. Difference is collapse in sterling from $2 to $1.20. Welcome to the Brexit. https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1537415189590589446
Every now and then you make reasonable and valid points. Then you come out of with utter garbage
As I said yesterday, that's all Twitter is, these absurd 'gotcha' comparisons trying to get retweets because they sound outrageous and somewhat plausible,but wouldn't stand up to a shred of scrutiny.
You could do (and someone probably has) a random outraged Tweet generator. It starts with 'Wow.' or 'So this is a thing.' or similar. In the middle, there's an absurd comparison. 'Rise in reported hate crimes in Stoke Newington since 2013? 200. Heteronormative stereotypes in Grimm's fairytales? 200. Funny that.' then it ends with some blame - 'Thanks Boris.'
Presumably the Bank of England financial models suggest that inflation is only transitory. So as interest rate increases only has an impact on inflation in around 2 years time and that inflation then is back to "normal" it is not worth increasing rates now? The problem is whether the model is correct and whether the risk is on the upside or downside.
34. In the MPC’s central projections in the May Monetary Policy Report, UK GDP growth had been expected to slow sharply over the first half of the forecast period and, although the labour market had been expected to tighten slightly further in the near term, the unemployment rate had been projected to rise to 5½% in three years’ time. CPI inflation had been expected to average slightly over 10% at its peak in 2022 Q4. Conditioned on the rising market-implied path for Bank Rate at that time and the MPC’s forecasting convention for future energy prices, CPI inflation had been projected to fall to a little above the 2% target in two years’ time, largely reflecting the waning influence of external factors, and to be well below the target in three years, mainly reflecting weaker domestic pressures. The risks to the inflation projection had been judged to be skewed to the upside at these points.
6-3 for 0.25% with 3 voting for 0.5%. That's very likely to be the BoE forming the bulk of the majority and the outsiders wanting more radical action.
As inflation bounds ahead the real rate of interest, of course, becomes more and more radically negative. An increase of 0.25% and then a delay of 2 months means that our monetary policy is in fact becoming even looser at a time of very high and increasing inflation. The hope is that these external factors are transitory but in the meantime we will see wages, food prices and pretty much everything else going up. To be blunt, I really cannot follow the logic of the majority.
Bailey doesn't want the blame for crushing the economy with aggressive interest rate increases.
He'd rather let inflation crush it with soaring costs, and avoid the blame.
Either way, its surely going to get crushed eventually, along with every advanced Western economy out there
What a shame if that happens on Boris Johnson's watch and as a consequence he is forced into ignominious retirement.
The giant cloud inside that silver lining for you is what happens after Biden.
A thought never far from my mind.
Would I accept more Johnson as the price for no Trump 2?
Lord take me now for this, but I think I would yes.
Nothing stops Trump 24 now, the Democrats have blown it. Biden was a disastrous pick, Harris worse. There's a reason she got like minus 500% in the primaries. And both will be revenge impeached after Novembers slaughter. Gonna get very messy.
He may not be the candidate.
Did you see the Georgia primaries? Kemp beat Trump's candidate 3-to-1, and even Raffsenberger got through without a runoff.
I mention this because I think lots of Republicans want Trumpian policies, but they don't actually want Trump. A majority of Republicans think the Party would do better with another candidate - and only 43% want him to stand again.
In a couple of the strawpolls that have happened this year (most importantly, the Conservatve Summit in Denver this month), it has not been Trump topping the list, but DeSantis.
DeSantis has moved ahead of Trump now in Republican nomination market on PredictIt, but is well behind on Bet365. I think PredictIt is right, and DeSantis should be the (narrow) favourite.
I’ve said before I don’t think Trump should be the candidate but I would disagree that DeSantis should be the favourite. While some of the results have shown that Trump maybe doesn’t have the influence he had, other results do. DeSantis is young enough where he can wait and he’s smart enough to know that risking Trump’s ire by running directly against him risks a future bid.
2/5 he runs. 13/8 he's the candidate. 3/1 he gets back in the oval office.
Presumably the Bank of England financial models suggest that inflation is only transitory. So as interest rate increases only has an impact on inflation in around 2 years time and that inflation then is back to "normal" it is not worth increasing rates now? The problem is whether the model is correct and whether the risk is on the upside or downside.
34. In the MPC’s central projections in the May Monetary Policy Report, UK GDP growth had been expected to slow sharply over the first half of the forecast period and, although the labour market had been expected to tighten slightly further in the near term, the unemployment rate had been projected to rise to 5½% in three years’ time. CPI inflation had been expected to average slightly over 10% at its peak in 2022 Q4. Conditioned on the rising market-implied path for Bank Rate at that time and the MPC’s forecasting convention for future energy prices, CPI inflation had been projected to fall to a little above the 2% target in two years’ time, largely reflecting the waning influence of external factors, and to be well below the target in three years, mainly reflecting weaker domestic pressures. The risks to the inflation projection had been judged to be skewed to the upside at these points.
6-3 for 0.25% with 3 voting for 0.5%. That's very likely to be the BoE forming the bulk of the majority and the outsiders wanting more radical action.
As inflation bounds ahead the real rate of interest, of course, becomes more and more radically negative. An increase of 0.25% and then a delay of 2 months means that our monetary policy is in fact becoming even looser at a time of very high and increasing inflation. The hope is that these external factors are transitory but in the meantime we will see wages, food prices and pretty much everything else going up. To be blunt, I really cannot follow the logic of the majority.
What on Earth do they do, when the Fed adds 75bps more to the US$ base rate next month?
At some point reality will hit them on the arse, and we’ll end up seeing 150bps in one go. That will wake everyone up.
Let's crack on with the 500bp now and then another 500bp if that doesn't work.
We have highest inflation since 1980 and we need a 1980 approach to deal with it 15% interest rates now!
...says a man with no mortgage!
(And presumably, with no income source dependent on people with mortgages!)
Correct no mortgage. Paid it off a long time ago. Never paid less than 6% interest.
Current borrowing rates are Fantasy Island. There needs to be a readjustment to ensure that borrowers pay real positive interest rates.
But I will settle for a 5% interest rate increase for the time being 👍
The current bout of inflation is shit for those who have savings, but it allows the real value of peoples' debts to be inflated away, and also means that house prices can come back in line with earnings without painful and difficult negative equity.
Covid and Vlad may have done us all a big favour in helping us rebalance our economy.
The current bout of inflation is not just sh8t for those with savings though. It is sh8t for anybody on a low or moderate wage, isn't it?
Wages are rising with inflation, though.
Not really. Especially in the public sector. I still have no idea what my pay rise will be. If I get one. The private sector is better, but still below inflation discounting bonuses (which tend to go to employees with more significant base earnings anyway).
Extraordinary stat via #WATO: in 2008, when oil prices peaked at $144/barrel, no one in Britain paid more than 120p per litre of petrol. Today, oil price is $113 but pump prices 186p litre. Difference is collapse in sterling from $2 to $1.20. Welcome to the Brexit. https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1537415189590589446
Every now and then you make reasonable and valid points. Then you come out of with utter garbage
What exactly is garbage about this?
Because using $2 to the £1 in a comparison is cherry picking a massive historic outlier and not indictive of the historic norms.
Its a bit like saying I once got an amazing deal on a 5* resort in Florida, I paid $30 a night for it and compare it to what it would cost now....why was it so cheap, because when I went the Deepwater Horizon platform had just blown up and they thought the oil would destroy the Florida coast.
GBP was between $1.95 and $2.10 for nearly two years, so hardly a one-off outlier.
In any event the key point was that it is true, not 'garbage'.
Presumably the Bank of England financial models suggest that inflation is only transitory. So as interest rate increases only has an impact on inflation in around 2 years time and that inflation then is back to "normal" it is not worth increasing rates now? The problem is whether the model is correct and whether the risk is on the upside or downside.
34. In the MPC’s central projections in the May Monetary Policy Report, UK GDP growth had been expected to slow sharply over the first half of the forecast period and, although the labour market had been expected to tighten slightly further in the near term, the unemployment rate had been projected to rise to 5½% in three years’ time. CPI inflation had been expected to average slightly over 10% at its peak in 2022 Q4. Conditioned on the rising market-implied path for Bank Rate at that time and the MPC’s forecasting convention for future energy prices, CPI inflation had been projected to fall to a little above the 2% target in two years’ time, largely reflecting the waning influence of external factors, and to be well below the target in three years, mainly reflecting weaker domestic pressures. The risks to the inflation projection had been judged to be skewed to the upside at these points.
6-3 for 0.25% with 3 voting for 0.5%. That's very likely to be the BoE forming the bulk of the majority and the outsiders wanting more radical action.
As inflation bounds ahead the real rate of interest, of course, becomes more and more radically negative. An increase of 0.25% and then a delay of 2 months means that our monetary policy is in fact becoming even looser at a time of very high and increasing inflation. The hope is that these external factors are transitory but in the meantime we will see wages, food prices and pretty much everything else going up. To be blunt, I really cannot follow the logic of the majority.
What on Earth do they do, when the Fed adds 75bps more to the US$ base rate next month?
At some point reality will hit them on the arse, and we’ll end up seeing 150bps in one go. That will wake everyone up.
Let's crack on with the 500bp now and then another 500bp if that doesn't work.
We have highest inflation since 1980 and we need a 1980 approach to deal with it 15% interest rates now!
...says a man with no mortgage!
(And presumably, with no income source dependent on people with mortgages!)
Correct no mortgage. Paid it off a long time ago. Never paid less than 6% interest.
Current borrowing rates are Fantasy Island. There needs to be a readjustment to ensure that borrowers pay real positive interest rates.
But I will settle for a 5% interest rate increase for the time being 👍
The current bout of inflation is shit for those who have savings, but it allows the real value of peoples' debts to be inflated away, and also means that house prices can come back in line with earnings without painful and difficult negative equity.
Covid and Vlad may have done us all a big favour in helping us rebalance our economy.
The current bout of inflation is not just sh8t for those with savings though. It is sh8t for anybody on a low or moderate wage, isn't it?
Wages are rising with inflation, though.
You must be a very generous boss, I am not giving my staff a 10%+ pay rise.
Extraordinary stat via #WATO: in 2008, when oil prices peaked at $144/barrel, no one in Britain paid more than 120p per litre of petrol. Today, oil price is $113 but pump prices 186p litre. Difference is collapse in sterling from $2 to $1.20. Welcome to the Brexit. https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1537415189590589446
Every now and then you make reasonable and valid points. Then you come out of with utter garbage
What exactly is garbage about this?
Because using $2 to the £1 in a comparison is cherry picking a massive historic outlier and not indictive of the historic norms.
Its a bit like saying I once got an amazing deal on a 5* resort in Florida, I paid $30 a night for it and compare it to what it would cost now....why was it so cheap, because when I went the Deepwater Horizon platform had just blown up and they thought the oil would destroy the Florida coast.
GBP was between $1.95 and $2.10 for nearly two years, so hardly a one-off outlier.
By historic norms it absolutely was. A more normal rate is 1.4-1.5. They have literally cherry picked the peak price since 1970s.
Extraordinary stat via #WATO: in 2008, when oil prices peaked at $144/barrel, no one in Britain paid more than 120p per litre of petrol. Today, oil price is $113 but pump prices 186p litre. Difference is collapse in sterling from $2 to $1.20. Welcome to the Brexit. https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1537415189590589446
Every now and then you make reasonable and valid points. Then you come out of with utter garbage
Embarrassing
You've gone from 'You just cannot help yourself' to 'Embarrassing'. I appreciate your herd instinct but could you explain yourself? Scott quite reasonably quoted an interesting fact from WATO which you have nnow derided twice. Can those of us not from Llandudno be let in on Scott's faux pas?
Headline: Scotland to Europe ferry link 'to return in 2023'
Body: 'A statement of intent released by DFDS and Ptarmigan Shipping reads: “Ptarmigan Shipping and DFDS have signed an agreement with the intention to further investigate the possibility for a new ferry route between Rosyth and Zeebrugge"... SNP MP Douglas Chapman... [said] "I am hugely excited by this announcement of further investigating the possibility to start a direct freight service between Rosyth and Zeebrugge in 2023"'
If Dougie is hugely excited by an agreement to investigate the possibility of doing something, Dunfermline and West Fife must be duller than I'd anticipated.
Ever been there? It's not been the same since the mines closed, not to mention the naval dockyard. Or the paper mill. Amazon is almost as good as it gets.
I'm actually surprised it's not to run from Leith, but there may be some technical issue of which I am unaware. And of course Rosyth is mcuh easier of access, just off the M-way, than the middle ofr a large conurbation, even if the seaside road is relatively clear by Edinburgh standards - having two road bridges is a big help.
Driving freight trucks through Leith might be a bit challenging.
Could they still dock ships as big as that in Leith nowadays
There are plans to build a ferry terminal at Cockenzie. Sounds a good idea as long as something is done about the Edinburgh City Bypass.
Just thinking. Mr Raab C. Brexit certainly won't know where that is, let alone pronounce it, in comparison to Dover.
Extraordinary stat via #WATO: in 2008, when oil prices peaked at $144/barrel, no one in Britain paid more than 120p per litre of petrol. Today, oil price is $113 but pump prices 186p litre. Difference is collapse in sterling from $2 to $1.20. Welcome to the Brexit. https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1537415189590589446
Every now and then you make reasonable and valid points. Then you come out of with utter garbage
Embarrassing
You've gone from 'You just cannot help yourself' to 'Embarrassing'. I appreciate your herd instinct but could you explain yourself? Scott quite reasonably quoted an interesting fact from WATO which you have nnow derided twice. Can those of us not from Llandudno be let in on Scott's faux pas?
Both "interesting" and "fact" are of dubious accuracy.
I would have paid good money to see Boycott watching this moment.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2022/jun/16/joe-root-and-jonny-bairstow-ignore-fixed-ideas-to-show-test-cricket-its-future ...In the Daily Telegraph the previous week Geoffrey Boycott explained to his readers that Root is a better batsman than his teammates because, unlike them, he “doesn’t play” Twenty20 cricket. “You never see Root play the scoop, ramp or any fancy shots,” Boycott wrote. “His technique is honed and has been from a young age to play proper cricket.” Now Southee is bowling just outside Root’s off stump, looking to take the ball away. It is only the second ball Root had faced that day. He could, probably should, leave it.
Instead he spreads his feet so he was facing square down the wicket, switches the bat around in his hands and flicks the ball over the heads of the slips. For six...
Geoffrey can always fall back on his favourite 'well that was such a poor ball my mother could have hit it for 4 with a stick of rhubarb'
I would have paid good money to see Boycott watching this moment.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2022/jun/16/joe-root-and-jonny-bairstow-ignore-fixed-ideas-to-show-test-cricket-its-future ...In the Daily Telegraph the previous week Geoffrey Boycott explained to his readers that Root is a better batsman than his teammates because, unlike them, he “doesn’t play” Twenty20 cricket. “You never see Root play the scoop, ramp or any fancy shots,” Boycott wrote. “His technique is honed and has been from a young age to play proper cricket.” Now Southee is bowling just outside Root’s off stump, looking to take the ball away. It is only the second ball Root had faced that day. He could, probably should, leave it.
Instead he spreads his feet so he was facing square down the wicket, switches the bat around in his hands and flicks the ball over the heads of the slips. For six...
Geoffrey can always fall back on his favourite 'well that was such a poor ball my mother could have hit it for 4 with a stick of rhubarb'
Bet she never ramped it for 6, though.
Do you think that if equipped with rhubarb bats, the side would crumble?
I would have paid good money to see Boycott watching this moment.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2022/jun/16/joe-root-and-jonny-bairstow-ignore-fixed-ideas-to-show-test-cricket-its-future ...In the Daily Telegraph the previous week Geoffrey Boycott explained to his readers that Root is a better batsman than his teammates because, unlike them, he “doesn’t play” Twenty20 cricket. “You never see Root play the scoop, ramp or any fancy shots,” Boycott wrote. “His technique is honed and has been from a young age to play proper cricket.” Now Southee is bowling just outside Root’s off stump, looking to take the ball away. It is only the second ball Root had faced that day. He could, probably should, leave it.
Instead he spreads his feet so he was facing square down the wicket, switches the bat around in his hands and flicks the ball over the heads of the slips. For six...
Geoffrey can always fall back on his favourite 'well that was such a poor ball my mother could have hit it for 4 with a stick of rhubarb'
Bet she never ramped it for 6, though.
Fnarr fnarr Tuffers and Aggers chortling at that one
I would have paid good money to see Boycott watching this moment.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2022/jun/16/joe-root-and-jonny-bairstow-ignore-fixed-ideas-to-show-test-cricket-its-future ...In the Daily Telegraph the previous week Geoffrey Boycott explained to his readers that Root is a better batsman than his teammates because, unlike them, he “doesn’t play” Twenty20 cricket. “You never see Root play the scoop, ramp or any fancy shots,” Boycott wrote. “His technique is honed and has been from a young age to play proper cricket.” Now Southee is bowling just outside Root’s off stump, looking to take the ball away. It is only the second ball Root had faced that day. He could, probably should, leave it.
Instead he spreads his feet so he was facing square down the wicket, switches the bat around in his hands and flicks the ball over the heads of the slips. For six...
Geoffrey can always fall back on his favourite 'well that was such a poor ball my mother could have hit it for 4 with a stick of rhubarb'
Bet she never ramped it for 6, though.
Do you think that if equipped with rhubarb bats, the side would crumble?
Presumably the Bank of England financial models suggest that inflation is only transitory. So as interest rate increases only has an impact on inflation in around 2 years time and that inflation then is back to "normal" it is not worth increasing rates now? The problem is whether the model is correct and whether the risk is on the upside or downside.
34. In the MPC’s central projections in the May Monetary Policy Report, UK GDP growth had been expected to slow sharply over the first half of the forecast period and, although the labour market had been expected to tighten slightly further in the near term, the unemployment rate had been projected to rise to 5½% in three years’ time. CPI inflation had been expected to average slightly over 10% at its peak in 2022 Q4. Conditioned on the rising market-implied path for Bank Rate at that time and the MPC’s forecasting convention for future energy prices, CPI inflation had been projected to fall to a little above the 2% target in two years’ time, largely reflecting the waning influence of external factors, and to be well below the target in three years, mainly reflecting weaker domestic pressures. The risks to the inflation projection had been judged to be skewed to the upside at these points.
6-3 for 0.25% with 3 voting for 0.5%. That's very likely to be the BoE forming the bulk of the majority and the outsiders wanting more radical action.
As inflation bounds ahead the real rate of interest, of course, becomes more and more radically negative. An increase of 0.25% and then a delay of 2 months means that our monetary policy is in fact becoming even looser at a time of very high and increasing inflation. The hope is that these external factors are transitory but in the meantime we will see wages, food prices and pretty much everything else going up. To be blunt, I really cannot follow the logic of the majority.
What on Earth do they do, when the Fed adds 75bps more to the US$ base rate next month?
At some point reality will hit them on the arse, and we’ll end up seeing 150bps in one go. That will wake everyone up.
Let's crack on with the 500bp now and then another 500bp if that doesn't work.
We have highest inflation since 1980 and we need a 1980 approach to deal with it 15% interest rates now!
...says a man with no mortgage!
(And presumably, with no income source dependent on people with mortgages!)
Correct no mortgage. Paid it off a long time ago. Never paid less than 6% interest.
Current borrowing rates are Fantasy Island. There needs to be a readjustment to ensure that borrowers pay real positive interest rates.
But I will settle for a 5% interest rate increase for the time being 👍
The current bout of inflation is shit for those who have savings, but it allows the real value of peoples' debts to be inflated away, and also means that house prices can come back in line with earnings without painful and difficult negative equity.
Covid and Vlad may have done us all a big favour in helping us rebalance our economy.
The current bout of inflation is not just sh8t for those with savings though. It is sh8t for anybody on a low or moderate wage, isn't it?
Wages are rising with inflation, though.
You must be a very generous boss, I am not giving my staff a 10%+ pay rise.
Extraordinary stat via #WATO: in 2008, when oil prices peaked at $144/barrel, no one in Britain paid more than 120p per litre of petrol. Today, oil price is $113 but pump prices 186p litre. Difference is collapse in sterling from $2 to $1.20. Welcome to the Brexit. https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1537415189590589446
Every now and then you make reasonable and valid points. Then you come out of with utter garbage
Embarrassing
You've gone from 'You just cannot help yourself' to 'Embarrassing'. I appreciate your herd instinct but could you explain yourself? Scott quite reasonably quoted an interesting fact from WATO which you have nnow derided twice. Can those of us not from Llandudno be let in on Scott's faux pas?
Everything is Brexit - covid and Ukraine has upset the world order and it is just nonsense to place everything at Brexit's door
Indeed Germany, France and Italy have been giving Putin billions towards his a war machine to protect their economies and are pursuing appeasement
The answer to brexit is a common sense approach by UK and EU and not the polarisation of the extreme views as per Farage on the right and yourself on the left
NEW: The Tory candidate in the Wakefield by-election has said voters should still back the Conservatives because “we still trust GPs” after Harold Shipman killed 250 people.
Nadeem Ahmed says Imran Ahmad Khan was just "one bad apple".
Tories.... 'fewer child sexual assaulters than you'd think' Marketing genius
One…bad…apple. Jesus. Don’t these people remember the second half of that phrase?
Don't spoil the whole bunch, girl?
Rots the whole barrel.
Yes, sorry, I did know. Mine's the Jackson Five song. It's saying to a girl who's been hurt by a bad ex boyfriend that she shouldn't assume all boys are like that.
The Osmonds, not the Jackson 5
Both!
When did the Jackson 5 record it?
They didn't. They might have done it in concert though. If not I've made a total howler. That it was written for the Jacksons is some mitigation but not much.
I would have paid good money to see Boycott watching this moment.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2022/jun/16/joe-root-and-jonny-bairstow-ignore-fixed-ideas-to-show-test-cricket-its-future ...In the Daily Telegraph the previous week Geoffrey Boycott explained to his readers that Root is a better batsman than his teammates because, unlike them, he “doesn’t play” Twenty20 cricket. “You never see Root play the scoop, ramp or any fancy shots,” Boycott wrote. “His technique is honed and has been from a young age to play proper cricket.” Now Southee is bowling just outside Root’s off stump, looking to take the ball away. It is only the second ball Root had faced that day. He could, probably should, leave it.
Instead he spreads his feet so he was facing square down the wicket, switches the bat around in his hands and flicks the ball over the heads of the slips. For six...
Geoffrey can always fall back on his favourite 'well that was such a poor ball my mother could have hit it for 4 with a stick of rhubarb'
Bet she never ramped it for 6, though.
Do you think that if equipped with rhubarb bats, the side would crumble?
Ghastly, if I knew I would be forced to rent out to doleys, I would never have become a landlord.
Landlords will be forced to rent to people on benefits and reimburse tenants whose homes aren't up to scratch under new Government plans to overhaul the buy-to-let sector.
In “the biggest shake-up of the private rented sector in 30 years”, landlords will have to repay rent to tenants if homes do not meet new minimum standards.
Blanket bans on renting to tenants on benefits or to families with children will be outlawed according to the Fairer Private Rented Sector White Paper.
The Government will also bring in its 2019 election manifesto promise to abolish Section 21 “no-fault” evictions into law in the proposed Renters Reform Bill. This will make it harder for landlords to gain repossession of their properties unless they can prove tenant wrongdoing.
Watch rents rocket as landlords pull out of the market entirely rather than have bad tenants.
There could be a big fire sale of property down the line as the attractiveness of buy to let pales.
To be fair I quite like all of that, as a long-term tenant who has never had a problem with any of half a dozen landlords. Discriminating against people on benefits is simply a form of class discrimination, since actually the rent is better guaranteed than usual. Asking for a reference from a previous landlord would be a better protection against troublemakers.
Some BTL landlords may sell out to property companies who do nothing else and do it well, and that's fine. Every other country that I've lived in has had a healthier rental market than Britain, where too many people see it as an unfortunate necessity to be avoided if possible, rather than a legitimate choice. I think it's weird that people want to tie up their savings and take a loan to live somewhere that they don't necessarily know how to maintain well - why not leave it to professionals and spend your money on enjoying life?
Interesting that an ex-Labour MP doesn't know the answer.
You *have to* invest in property. If you rent, you are buying a property for someone else. If you buy, you are being it for yourself.
If you own, after you pay off the mortgage, you own the property outright. Which means that when you are retired, you have zero rental/mortage costs. No "rent man" to fear, as in the old days.
You are secure in your home, and need very little money for the rest of things in life (comparatively).
Buying doesn't necessarily beat renting on the financials. It depends on various factors. Also a rented option could provide peace and security if it were structured that way and became more of the norm. But with how we roll you're right, you have to buy if you can, and if you can't you're excluded from the main mechanism for personal wealth accumulation for doing nothing. As to whether we ought to lionize and be so reliant on a mechanism for accumulating wealth for doing nothing, I'd say not. It's very ingrained though so I doubt we'll be changing it much.
If you own the property, you have zero rent in perpetuity.
If you rent, you are paying money to others until you die.
The emphasis on rental simply means that property is owned by a smaller group of people.
The reason that owning a house has become an investment is because of the dedication of many in society to preventing properties being built to match a rising population.
Skint all your days paying it and then you pop your clogs and get nothing free
It used to be that people could afford to buy their houses much earlier in their lives. You'd be in your "last" property by 40 or earlier. So a 20 year mortgage would finish nicely in time for your retirement.
How much would you have to save into a pension to pay the rent on a property for your retirement?
I actually asked a friend who is an ex-private financial advisor. He confirmed my suspicion that people with no prospect of buying aren't increasing their pension contributions to deal with renting for like. Some people are going to be in a really, really shit situation when they retire.
Yes can imagine if renting it will be a shock of no decent pension on top of state one.
Extraordinary stat via #WATO: in 2008, when oil prices peaked at $144/barrel, no one in Britain paid more than 120p per litre of petrol. Today, oil price is $113 but pump prices 186p litre. Difference is collapse in sterling from $2 to $1.20. Welcome to the Brexit. https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1537415189590589446
Every now and then you make reasonable and valid points. Then you come out of with utter garbage
Embarrassing
You've gone from 'You just cannot help yourself' to 'Embarrassing'. I appreciate your herd instinct but could you explain yourself? Scott quite reasonably quoted an interesting fact from WATO which you have nnow derided twice. Can those of us not from Llandudno be let in on Scott's faux pas?
Everything is Brexit - covid and Ukraine has upset the world order and it is just nonsense to place everything at Brexit's door
Indeed Germany, France and Italy have been giving Putin billions towards his a war machine to protect their economies and are pursuing appeasement
The answer to brexit is a common sense approach by UK and EU and not the polarisation of the extreme views as per Farage on the right and yourself on the left
You clearly didn't even read Scotts post as that wasn't the main point he or WATO were making. The point they were making was the collapse of the pound. Something I can attest to as I change money into Euros regularly and out of dollars sometimes
Extraordinary stat via #WATO: in 2008, when oil prices peaked at $144/barrel, no one in Britain paid more than 120p per litre of petrol. Today, oil price is $113 but pump prices 186p litre. Difference is collapse in sterling from $2 to $1.20. Welcome to the Brexit. https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1537415189590589446
Every now and then you make reasonable and valid points. Then you come out of with utter garbage
What exactly is garbage about this?
Because using $2 to the £1 in a comparison is cherry picking a massive historic outlier and not indictive of the historic norms.
Its a bit like saying I once got an amazing deal on a 5* resort in Florida, I paid $30 a night for it and compare it to what it would cost now....why was it so cheap, because when I went the Deepwater Horizon platform had just blown up and they thought the oil would destroy the Florida coast.
GBP was between $1.95 and $2.10 for nearly two years, so hardly a one-off outlier.
By historic norms it absolutely was. A more normal rate is 1.4-1.5. They have literally cherry picked the peak price since 1970s.
The 'normal rate is 1.4-1.5'? What sort of bullshit is that?
In the 8,567 days since 1 January 1999, GBP has ended the day between 1.4 and 1.5 USD on only 1,218 occasions.
Presumably the Bank of England financial models suggest that inflation is only transitory. So as interest rate increases only has an impact on inflation in around 2 years time and that inflation then is back to "normal" it is not worth increasing rates now? The problem is whether the model is correct and whether the risk is on the upside or downside.
34. In the MPC’s central projections in the May Monetary Policy Report, UK GDP growth had been expected to slow sharply over the first half of the forecast period and, although the labour market had been expected to tighten slightly further in the near term, the unemployment rate had been projected to rise to 5½% in three years’ time. CPI inflation had been expected to average slightly over 10% at its peak in 2022 Q4. Conditioned on the rising market-implied path for Bank Rate at that time and the MPC’s forecasting convention for future energy prices, CPI inflation had been projected to fall to a little above the 2% target in two years’ time, largely reflecting the waning influence of external factors, and to be well below the target in three years, mainly reflecting weaker domestic pressures. The risks to the inflation projection had been judged to be skewed to the upside at these points.
6-3 for 0.25% with 3 voting for 0.5%. That's very likely to be the BoE forming the bulk of the majority and the outsiders wanting more radical action.
As inflation bounds ahead the real rate of interest, of course, becomes more and more radically negative. An increase of 0.25% and then a delay of 2 months means that our monetary policy is in fact becoming even looser at a time of very high and increasing inflation. The hope is that these external factors are transitory but in the meantime we will see wages, food prices and pretty much everything else going up. To be blunt, I really cannot follow the logic of the majority.
What on Earth do they do, when the Fed adds 75bps more to the US$ base rate next month?
At some point reality will hit them on the arse, and we’ll end up seeing 150bps in one go. That will wake everyone up.
Let's crack on with the 500bp now and then another 500bp if that doesn't work.
We have highest inflation since 1980 and we need a 1980 approach to deal with it 15% interest rates now!
...says a man with no mortgage!
(And presumably, with no income source dependent on people with mortgages!)
Correct no mortgage. Paid it off a long time ago. Never paid less than 6% interest.
Current borrowing rates are Fantasy Island. There needs to be a readjustment to ensure that borrowers pay real positive interest rates.
But I will settle for a 5% interest rate increase for the time being 👍
The current bout of inflation is shit for those who have savings, but it allows the real value of peoples' debts to be inflated away, and also means that house prices can come back in line with earnings without painful and difficult negative equity.
Covid and Vlad may have done us all a big favour in helping us rebalance our economy.
The current bout of inflation is not just sh8t for those with savings though. It is sh8t for anybody on a low or moderate wage, isn't it?
Wages are rising with inflation, though.
Thought someone said today that UK wages were down 2% last month
Ghastly, if I knew I would be forced to rent out to doleys, I would never have become a landlord.
Landlords will be forced to rent to people on benefits and reimburse tenants whose homes aren't up to scratch under new Government plans to overhaul the buy-to-let sector.
In “the biggest shake-up of the private rented sector in 30 years”, landlords will have to repay rent to tenants if homes do not meet new minimum standards.
Blanket bans on renting to tenants on benefits or to families with children will be outlawed according to the Fairer Private Rented Sector White Paper.
The Government will also bring in its 2019 election manifesto promise to abolish Section 21 “no-fault” evictions into law in the proposed Renters Reform Bill. This will make it harder for landlords to gain repossession of their properties unless they can prove tenant wrongdoing.
Watch rents rocket as landlords pull out of the market entirely rather than have bad tenants.
There could be a big fire sale of property down the line as the attractiveness of buy to let pales.
To be fair I quite like all of that, as a long-term tenant who has never had a problem with any of half a dozen landlords. Discriminating against people on benefits is simply a form of class discrimination, since actually the rent is better guaranteed than usual. Asking for a reference from a previous landlord would be a better protection against troublemakers.
Some BTL landlords may sell out to property companies who do nothing else and do it well, and that's fine. Every other country that I've lived in has had a healthier rental market than Britain, where too many people see it as an unfortunate necessity to be avoided if possible, rather than a legitimate choice. I think it's weird that people want to tie up their savings and take a loan to live somewhere that they don't necessarily know how to maintain well - why not leave it to professionals and spend your money on enjoying life?
Interesting that an ex-Labour MP doesn't know the answer.
You *have to* invest in property. If you rent, you are buying a property for someone else. If you buy, you are being it for yourself.
If you own, after you pay off the mortgage, you own the property outright. Which means that when you are retired, you have zero rental/mortage costs. No "rent man" to fear, as in the old days.
You are secure in your home, and need very little money for the rest of things in life (comparatively).
Buying doesn't necessarily beat renting on the financials. It depends on various factors. Also a rented option could provide peace and security if it were structured that way and became more of the norm. But with how we roll you're right, you have to buy if you can, and if you can't you're excluded from the main mechanism for personal wealth accumulation for doing nothing. As to whether we ought to lionize and be so reliant on a mechanism for accumulating wealth for doing nothing, I'd say not. It's very ingrained though so I doubt we'll be changing it much.
If you own the property, you have zero rent in perpetuity.
If you rent, you are paying money to others until you die.
The emphasis on rental simply means that property is owned by a smaller group of people.
The reason that owning a house has become an investment is because of the dedication of many in society to preventing properties being built to match a rising population.
Skint all your days paying it and then you pop your clogs and get nothing free
It used to be that people could afford to buy their houses much earlier in their lives. You'd be in your "last" property by 40 or earlier. So a 20 year mortgage would finish nicely in time for your retirement.
How much would you have to save into a pension to pay the rent on a property for your retirement?
I actually asked a friend who is an ex-private financial advisor. He confirmed my suspicion that people with no prospect of buying aren't increasing their pension contributions to deal with renting for like. Some people are going to be in a really, really shit situation when they retire.
Yes can imagine if renting it will be a shock of no decent pension on top of state one.
There are a couple of good ideas, a lot of virtue signalling and several likely faceplants.
The biggest issue is that they are lying about so-called No Fault evictions. Shelter research shows that there *are* reasons and the Section 21 eviction is mainly used as the quickest and easiest procedure. Shelter are always happy to spin deceptive stories.
The last time I looked there were also a lot more of that type of eviction by Housing Associations - but no one will mention that.
Doubling the notice period for a rental increase is a bizarre one - it already requires 3 months. That will normalise rate of inflation plus a smidgeon rent increases to a strict schedule, which will make increases notably larger than they have been for the last 20 years.
They will probably make an even bigger mess of dog tenancies than they managed to create last time. That's just SOP for an ignorant Parliament.
I am not sure how they are going to force lets to XYZ group, when the applicant from that group is often not a suitable tenant.
As far as I can see they are not dealing with Councils abusing entitled to housing by forcing them to go through a Court process of 4-6 months which wrecks their credit rating and leaves them with several k of Court Fees.
Car crash coming down the road, in all likelihood.
And I think the landlord-haters just lost this morning their "mortgages are so much cheaper than rents" brickbat. Perhaps now the thicker ones will realise that rent pays for a hell of a lot more than the mortgage; don;t hold your breath.
Ghastly, if I knew I would be forced to rent out to doleys, I would never have become a landlord.
Landlords will be forced to rent to people on benefits and reimburse tenants whose homes aren't up to scratch under new Government plans to overhaul the buy-to-let sector.
In “the biggest shake-up of the private rented sector in 30 years”, landlords will have to repay rent to tenants if homes do not meet new minimum standards.
Blanket bans on renting to tenants on benefits or to families with children will be outlawed according to the Fairer Private Rented Sector White Paper.
The Government will also bring in its 2019 election manifesto promise to abolish Section 21 “no-fault” evictions into law in the proposed Renters Reform Bill. This will make it harder for landlords to gain repossession of their properties unless they can prove tenant wrongdoing.
Comments
https://twitter.com/OSINT88/status/1537442613833281539
🇬🇧The UK has purchased and is refurbishing more than 20 long range guns – M109s – from a Belgian arms company which it is sending to Ukraine, Defence Secretary @BWallaceMP has said.
These heavy weapons fire 155mm rounds.
Probably M109A4s ?
Did you read the story from January, looking at one of Germany's front line divisions that was shipped off to the Baltics. It was missing tonnes of equipment and weaponry.
https://twitter.com/geoallison/status/1537376479692132357
A British Army Watchkeeper drone has crashed into the sea off Cyprus, you can see on this live tracking feed the moment contact was lost with the aircraft.
We've lost seven so far.
Some of that could well have been retrofitted, though.
Our savings ratio is bad enough as it is.
I recall a report that Ukraine had bought some already - from a Belgian company. Presumably this is the same outfit - they bought (IIRC) the Belgian Army fleet of them when they were retired.
Did you see the Georgia primaries? Kemp beat Trump's candidate 3-to-1, and even Raffsenberger got through without a runoff.
I mention this because I think lots of Republicans want Trumpian policies, but they don't actually want Trump. A majority of Republicans think the Party would do better with another candidate - and only 43% want him to stand again.
In a couple of the strawpolls that have happened this year (most importantly, the Conservatve Summit in Denver this month), it has not been Trump topping the list, but DeSantis.
DeSantis has moved ahead of Trump now in Republican nomination market on PredictIt, but is well behind on Bet365. I think PredictIt is right, and DeSantis should be the (narrow) favourite.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BAXqrUN1qEo
@Peston
I apologise for my inaccurate language and getting it wrong in the tweet below. I should have said “a possible conclusion to be drawn…”, not “the only conclusion to be drawn…” I made a mistake, not for the first or last time. I am sorry (not for the first or last time)
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1537449881404514306
Trouble is, can DeSantis carry some of the Rustbelt states like Trump did in 2016? I think many repubs aren't confident.
A recent interview with the Governor, for anyone who doesn’t know him. https://youtube.com/watch?v=JHkeUq17wLE
Whatever happened to journalistic licence?
https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1537415189590589446
Some of them were pretty rotted already.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=GRbcHPu2hq8&feature=share
We should move on.
Aye.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2022/jun/16/joe-root-and-jonny-bairstow-ignore-fixed-ideas-to-show-test-cricket-its-future
...In the Daily Telegraph the previous week Geoffrey Boycott explained to his readers that Root is a better batsman than his teammates because, unlike them, he “doesn’t play” Twenty20 cricket. “You never see Root play the scoop, ramp or any fancy shots,” Boycott wrote. “His technique is honed and has been from a young age to play proper cricket.” Now Southee is bowling just outside Root’s off stump, looking to take the ball away. It is only the second ball Root had faced that day. He could, probably should, leave it.
Instead he spreads his feet so he was facing square down the wicket, switches the bat around in his hands and flicks the ball over the heads of the slips. For six...
Its a bit like saying I once got an amazing deal on a 5* resort in Florida, I paid $30 a night for it as indicative of problem with inflation compared it to what it would cost now i.e $500-600 a night....why was it so cheap, because when I went the Deepwater Horizon platform had just blown up and they thought the oil would destroy the Florida coast.
Is that good news, or bad? I'll let you decide, after I describe them.
The 5th most popular is Arkansas's Asa Hutchinson. A strong conservative, he's running for president -- whether or not Trump runs. He's been about as anti-Trump as a Republican can be, in Arkansas.
The fourth most popular governor is West Virginia's Jim Justice. (He switched from being a Democrat during his first term.) He has followed moderate policies -- and has been the closest to Trump of the five, because of coal and West Virginia's politics, but, would, I believe, dump Trump in an instant, given a chance.)
The third most popular governor is Maryand's Larry Hogan. He is running for the presidency, and against Trump, and working to help anti-Trump Republicans across the nation.
The second most popular governor is Vermont's Phil Scott. He has been a consistent opponent of Trump.
The most popular governor is Massachusetts's Charlie Baker, a "fiscal conservative, and cultural liberal". Like Scott he has been an opponent of Trump.
You could do (and someone probably has) a random outraged Tweet generator. It starts with 'Wow.' or 'So this is a thing.' or similar. In the middle, there's an absurd comparison. 'Rise in reported hate crimes in Stoke Newington since 2013? 200. Heteronormative stereotypes in Grimm's fairytales? 200. Funny that.' then it ends with some blame - 'Thanks Boris.'
So say punters at this moment in time.
In any event the key point was that it is true, not 'garbage'.
Tuffers and Aggers chortling at that one
Labour 42% (+3)
Conservative 34% (+2)
Liberal Democrat 12% (-3)
Green 4% (-2)
Scottish National Party 3% (-2)
Reform UK 3% (+1)
Other 1% (-2)
Changes +/- 12 June
https://t.co/yZRxSLYvWc https://t.co/p2qc3C6LpI
Redfield random number generator with the blue red booster
More tentative evidence the tories are off the floor level but a good red score too
Indeed Germany, France and Italy have been giving Putin billions towards his a war machine to protect their economies and are pursuing appeasement
The answer to brexit is a common sense approach by UK and EU and not the polarisation of the extreme views as per Farage on the right and yourself on the left
Are you entirely compôte mentis ?
In the 8,567 days since 1 January 1999, GBP has ended the day between 1.4 and 1.5 USD on only 1,218 occasions.
It seems to be a bit of a hissy fit because the Minister treated the adviser's trade advice as advice, rather than letting him set policy.
Advisers advise; Ministers decide.
I'd say he was looking for an excuse, and did not find a very good one.
Have I missed something?
The biggest issue is that they are lying about so-called No Fault evictions. Shelter research shows that there *are* reasons and the Section 21 eviction is mainly used as the quickest and easiest procedure. Shelter are always happy to spin deceptive stories.
The last time I looked there were also a lot more of that type of eviction by Housing Associations - but no one will mention that.
Doubling the notice period for a rental increase is a bizarre one - it already requires 3 months. That will normalise rate of inflation plus a smidgeon rent increases to a strict schedule, which will make increases notably larger than they have been for the last 20 years.
They will probably make an even bigger mess of dog tenancies than they managed to create last time. That's just SOP for an ignorant Parliament.
I am not sure how they are going to force lets to XYZ group, when the applicant from that group is often not a suitable tenant.
As far as I can see they are not dealing with Councils abusing entitled to housing by forcing them to go through a Court process of 4-6 months which wrecks their credit rating and leaves them with several k of Court Fees.
Car crash coming down the road, in all likelihood.
And I think the landlord-haters just lost this morning their "mortgages are so much cheaper than rents" brickbat. Perhaps now the thicker ones will realise that rent pays for a hell of a lot more than the mortgage; don;t hold your breath.