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The Tories still favorite to win most General Election seats – politicalbetting.com

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  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830


    Another day, another cathedral
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    Nigelb said:

    Note the letter was withheld until after the ethics debate.
    More taking the piss.

    The delay before publishing the letters reminded me of the classic conscience scene from Yes, Prime Minister. "He accepted the fact..."
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNKjShmHw7s
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232
    So what's with the Geidt letter? Did Boris intend to rip up the NI Protocol so that the contract to administer the 'two lane' mechanism would go to a Tory donor?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    edited June 2022
    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    Feeble from the Bank of England.

    I agree. But if they keep being feeble each and every 6 weeks they'll get there.
    No because we're too far behind the Fed, so all of the 0.25% rises take us even further back compared to the 0.5% and 0.75% rises coming from the US. That will further weaken sterling and increase inflationary pressures. This was an opportunity to claw back some credibility and follow the US rise with our own similar one and send sterling upwards to relieve pressure on import prices. The Bank has fucked it and given us a rate rise that will cause more inflation.
    Sorry, I was being slightly facetious. My feeling is we're bound to crash as the artificial prop of oodles of free printed money is withdrawn, it's just a matter of how severe and in what manifestation. The worst outcome imo is hyper inflation so I'd rather the Bank erred on the hawkish side with rates. As it is they're thus far doing the opposite.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    A gentle warning to anyone tempted to impeach the unimpeachable integrity of the noble lord...

    (Wikipedia)
    ...In 1987, Geidt joined the staff of the Royal United Services Institute for Defence Studies, becoming an Assistant Director.[15] From 1994 he worked for the Foreign and Commonwealth Office in diplomatic posts in Sarajevo, Geneva and Brussels.[11]

    In 1991, Geidt and Anthony de Normann sued the journalist John Pilger and Central Television over the documentary Cambodia: The Betrayal, in which they were accused of being members of the SAS secretly engaged in the training of the Khmer Rouge of Cambodia. Geidt and de Normann accepted "very substantial" damages and all costs.[16] In a related libel action Ann Clwyd MP, then shadow minister for overseas development, issued a public apology to Geidt and de Normann and agreed to meet all legal costs.[17]...
  • RattersRatters Posts: 756
    edited June 2022
    The BoE started tightening first but this decision puts us well behind the US.

    Bailey is the problem. Three MPC members voted for 0.5% hikes the last two meetings but Bailey always voted against. As the Chair I presume his view sways those on the fence, and so with someone else in charge we'd be in a different place.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926

    malcolmg said:

    dixiedean said:

    FTSE down 2.4% and falling.

    Been a desperate year for investments
    Not good for pension pots
    Yes, mine has dropped about 2-years' income worth already. It makes me wonder what we pay fund managers for if not to forecast and react to market conditions. Making the right connections at Oxbridge, I expect.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,704

    malcolmg said:

    dixiedean said:

    FTSE down 2.4% and falling.

    Been a desperate year for investments
    Not good for pension pots
    But not a bad buying opportunity if you are buying for the long term.
  • JonWCJonWC Posts: 285

    dixiedean said:

    MaxPB said:

    It's literally the worst of all worlds, borrowing costs will still rise and inflation will still rise. They'd have been better off doing nothing. We needed a 0.5% rise and £100bn reduction in the QE stockpile or a 0.75% rise.

    We'll now get reams of compliant media articles repeating verbatim the excuses from the BoE about how this inflation is transitory (it isn't) and external (only to a certain extent) and not their fault (it is).

    No one out there is asking the hard questions of the governor.

    Is a tanking of the pound a real possibility?
    I mean. I know it is at 10 year lows, but a proper run?
    What's to stop it? We have a trade deficit and a current account deficit. It's only inflows of foreign money that support the current value.

    If Sterling looks weak and not much like a safe haven then a fall in the value of Sterling could be brutal. Could be bad enough that some Scots will decide they may as well chance their arm with their own currency (despite the popular saying, things can always get worse).
    The pound is already cheap but a lot of emerging economies have tried these sorts of policies and found they can get a lot cheaper still.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880

    Animal welfare (certainly in the sense of government doing something) is never discussed in any social group I go out with - cost of living, brexit, housing, johnsons parties are but not animal welfare

    It comes up occasionally and unprompted among my A-level students when discussing politics. Certainly more than house prices, interest rates or any of that chutney. The only other political topic that gets as much interest is climate change.

    DA, your man on the spot with multi-lingual teenage focus groups.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,624
    Nigelb said:

    A gentle warning to anyone tempted to impeach the unimpeachable integrity of the noble lord...

    (Wikipedia)
    ...In 1987, Geidt joined the staff of the Royal United Services Institute for Defence Studies, becoming an Assistant Director.[15] From 1994 he worked for the Foreign and Commonwealth Office in diplomatic posts in Sarajevo, Geneva and Brussels.[11]

    In 1991, Geidt and Anthony de Normann sued the journalist John Pilger and Central Television over the documentary Cambodia: The Betrayal, in which they were accused of being members of the SAS secretly engaged in the training of the Khmer Rouge of Cambodia. Geidt and de Normann accepted "very substantial" damages and all costs.[16] In a related libel action Ann Clwyd MP, then shadow minister for overseas development, issued a public apology to Geidt and de Normann and agreed to meet all legal costs.[17]...

    The Pilger thing was a very interesting tale - a politically motivated smear, to try and stop the West reinforcing the non-Khmer Rouge resistance to the Vietnamese occupation of Cambodia.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Point made here is that whichever Cabinet minister ends Boris Johnson's career will actually be empowered. 148 MPs are against him & Mishal Husain touched a nerve with Raab this morn when she said the govt doesn't have the authority to put the Rwanda policy before parliament https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1537353037676675073

    An under-appreciated point.
    Those fulminating about the courts frustrating democracy haven't talked much about Patel having forced the Rwanda policy through without either Parliamentary approval or proper scrutiny.
    It's not like our courts are not subordinate to parliament. Do it properly and you can make any number of unpleasant things perfectly legal. Incompatibility wouldn't even stop it.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Nigelb said:

    A gentle warning to anyone tempted to impeach the unimpeachable integrity of the noble lord...

    (Wikipedia)
    ...In 1987, Geidt joined the staff of the Royal United Services Institute for Defence Studies, becoming an Assistant Director.[15] From 1994 he worked for the Foreign and Commonwealth Office in diplomatic posts in Sarajevo, Geneva and Brussels.[11]

    In 1991, Geidt and Anthony de Normann sued the journalist John Pilger and Central Television over the documentary Cambodia: The Betrayal, in which they were accused of being members of the SAS secretly engaged in the training of the Khmer Rouge of Cambodia. Geidt and de Normann accepted "very substantial" damages and all costs.[16] In a related libel action Ann Clwyd MP, then shadow minister for overseas development, issued a public apology to Geidt and de Normann and agreed to meet all legal costs.[17]...

    Golly

    I imagine the SAS part is verifiable and true. So two good reasons to say nice stuff about him
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,678

    With the leaders of Germany, France and Italy in Kyiv for talks, the big question of the day has to be:

    Will Macron, Scholz and Draghi put their energy supplies ahead of European security, European unity and peace?

    Will they give in to evil for very short-term gains?

    Yes and yes is my betting on the answer.
    (Maybe not quite true - I think Macron is probably the most supportive of Ukraine of the three but it isn't much support - Germany and Italy both wanted a quick Russian win, and failing that, a slower Russian win.... and failing that, a Russian win eventually!).

  • ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 488
    Carnyx said:
    Headline: Scotland to Europe ferry link 'to return in 2023'

    Body: 'A statement of intent released by DFDS and Ptarmigan Shipping reads: “Ptarmigan Shipping and DFDS have signed an agreement with the intention to further investigate the possibility for a new ferry route between Rosyth and Zeebrugge"... SNP MP Douglas Chapman... [said] "I am hugely excited by this announcement of further investigating the possibility to start a direct freight service between Rosyth and Zeebrugge in 2023"'

    If Dougie is hugely excited by an agreement to investigate the possibility of doing something, Dunfermline and West Fife must be duller than I'd anticipated.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Swiss central bank surprisingly raises interest rates by 50 basis points.

    25pbs from the BoE is going to look like it’s not enough.
    Black Wednesday in miniature.
    It won’t be that bad, but central banks do seem all rather surprised that the massive amounts of money-printing that went on during the pandemic, have led to inflation down the line.

    The next few years are going to be a long ride.
    Who knew that keeping interest rates at stupidly low crisis levels for 13 years whilst printing money like they were playing monopoly could be problematic?
    Well said. Surprising it's taken this long.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Seems bizarre to me that the Fed has a 0.75% increase, we have forecast inflation of 11%, and the Bank of England's response is a minimal increase.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,153
    malcolmg said:

    dixiedean said:

    FTSE down 2.4% and falling.

    Been a desperate year for investments
    All my money's gone! I shall be moving up to Scotland soon to rent a room of you please 👍
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400

    malcolmg said:

    dixiedean said:

    FTSE down 2.4% and falling.

    Been a desperate year for investments
    Currently looking at my 195th birthday to take my pensions
    Die at your desk like a real man/woman, that's my plan.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    malcolmg said:

    dixiedean said:

    FTSE down 2.4% and falling.

    Been a desperate year for investments
    Not good for pension pots
    Yes, mine has dropped about 2-years' income worth already. It makes me wonder what we pay fund managers for if not to forecast and react to market conditions. Making the right connections at Oxbridge, I expect.
    Sack them. Cash out. Put the lot in vwrl when it falls a bit further.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,704

    Seems bizarre to me that the Fed has a 0.75% increase, we have forecast inflation of 11%, and the Bank of England's response is a minimal increase.

    It will be interesting to see the rationale for the decision. The Fed went higher than the 50 bps they originally flagged.

    There was even talk of 100 bps.

    So why the sluggish response from the UK ?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    I have zero understanding of BoE interest rates. I presume I am the norm not the exception.

    For every 25 basis points, or 0.25% the rate rises, the repayment on a £100k mortgage goes up by £25 per month.

    The higher the interest rate, the more valuable the currency, so if our interest rate is lower than the American interest rate, people sell pounds and buy dollars, which makes imports priced in dollars (like oil) more expensive, which adds to inflation.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    Seems bizarre to me that the Fed has a 0.75% increase, we have forecast inflation of 11%, and the Bank of England's response is a minimal increase.

    Agreed. Seriously unwise. The Bank have been consistently behind the curve on inflation and remain so.

    Utterly extraordinary increase in UK gas futures prices today, up over 20% in a day. We are nowhere near through this yet.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited June 2022
    Ratters said:

    The BoE started tightening first but this decision puts us well behind the US.

    Bailey is the problem. Three MPC members voted for 0.5% hikes the last two meetings but Bailey always voted against. As the Chair I presume his view sways those on the fence, and so with someone else in charge we'd be in a different place.

    Were I sat on the committee I would be resigning today. This mess was created in November when they skipped the increase then and exacerbated today by not reacting to the Fed’s larger (than expected last week) 0.75% increase.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    Carnyx said:
    Headline: Scotland to Europe ferry link 'to return in 2023'

    Body: 'A statement of intent released by DFDS and Ptarmigan Shipping reads: “Ptarmigan Shipping and DFDS have signed an agreement with the intention to further investigate the possibility for a new ferry route between Rosyth and Zeebrugge"... SNP MP Douglas Chapman... [said] "I am hugely excited by this announcement of further investigating the possibility to start a direct freight service between Rosyth and Zeebrugge in 2023"'

    If Dougie is hugely excited by an agreement to investigate the possibility of doing something, Dunfermline and West Fife must be duller than I'd anticipated.
    Arsehole
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited June 2022
    I remember last year when we were assured inflation was just transitory. 11% is eye watering and the BoE have yet again bottled taking the tough decision for pain now, rather opting for worse pain down the line (and hoping Ukraine war ends and other things just turn up).
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    malcolmg said:

    dixiedean said:

    FTSE down 2.4% and falling.

    Been a desperate year for investments
    All my money's gone! I shall be moving up to Scotland soon to rent a room of you please 👍
    way it is going will need to keep working
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    JohnO said:

    I agree that PM Mordaunt could be a game changer.

    I would like to see the PB Tory view is of the "Blue Wall". The remain seats with 30%+ graduates that the LDs have been working on.

    Also there are few signs that the Tories can hold their red wall seats.

    In Surrey alone, the Tories can kiss goodbye to Esher and Walton, Guildford, Woking and possibly Mole Valley. Jeremy Hunt will likely migrate to the new safer seat (assuming boundary changes happen), so should be OK) but the remaining SW Surrey constituency could well fall.

    Definite losses are 3 and possibles 2
    Ironic that at the next general election most of Surrey, much of Buckinghamshire, Kensington and Westminster will be marginal seats whereas in 1997 they were the safest Tory seats still left.

    In 1997 though Kent and Essex for example had many marginal seats which went Labour but almost all seats there are safe Conservative now
    While I agree it looks like that, why did Conservative Central Office get their knickers in a twist when it was suggested that the Maldon seat might become a site for a by-election?

    Furthermore the ghost of Lord Tony Newton says hi.
    Any government held seat is vulnerable in a by election.

    Braintree was Labour in 1997 but has a 24,673 Conservative majority now, even bigger than the 17,494 Conservative majority in 1992.

    So that does not really dispute what I said
    I'm not really 'disputing'; I'm pointing out that big shifts do happen. And Braintree is a significantly different seat now from 1992 or 1997.
    It isn't demographically that much different.

    It is more the fact that the upper middle class are voting increasingly more for liberal parties, while the core vote for conservatives is now the skilled working class.

    A trend across the western world
    A somewhat personal question, if I may, young HY. Do you consider yourself upper middle class or skilled working class? Just wondering about the future, you see, and looking for signs.
    Middle class, bits of upper middle class and bits of lower middle class
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    dixiedean said:

    FTSE down 2.4% and falling.

    Been a desperate year for investments
    Currently looking at my 195th birthday to take my pensions
    Die at your desk like a real man/woman, that's my plan.
    Not currently working. Quicker i can take my pensions, quicker i get off the state teat
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Carnyx said:
    Headline: Scotland to Europe ferry link 'to return in 2023'

    Body: 'A statement of intent released by DFDS and Ptarmigan Shipping reads: “Ptarmigan Shipping and DFDS have signed an agreement with the intention to further investigate the possibility for a new ferry route between Rosyth and Zeebrugge"... SNP MP Douglas Chapman... [said] "I am hugely excited by this announcement of further investigating the possibility to start a direct freight service between Rosyth and Zeebrugge in 2023"'

    If Dougie is hugely excited by an agreement to investigate the possibility of doing something, Dunfermline and West Fife must be duller than I'd anticipated.
    So “to return” actually means “to agree to intend to investigate a possibility”.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Urquhart, aye. It's like a man refusing to move because he thinks a car won't hit him, now lying trapped under said car and still refusing to acknowledge it 'really' hit him.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    malcolmg said:

    dixiedean said:

    FTSE down 2.4% and falling.

    Been a desperate year for investments
    Not good for pension pots
    Yes, mine has dropped about 2-years' income worth already. It makes me wonder what we pay fund managers for if not to forecast and react to market conditions. Making the right connections at Oxbridge, I expect.
    For their yacht,s and porsches
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    Taz said:

    Seems bizarre to me that the Fed has a 0.75% increase, we have forecast inflation of 11%, and the Bank of England's response is a minimal increase.

    It will be interesting to see the rationale for the decision. The Fed went higher than the 50 bps they originally flagged.

    There was even talk of 100 bps.

    So why the sluggish response from the UK ?
    Incompetence, corruption or greed are some of the usual reasons for idiocy
  • RattersRatters Posts: 756
    For what it's worth, the BoE statement has been interpreted as being hawkish and markets are now pricing in 0.5% hikes for each of the next three meetings to end the year above 3%.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    That Geidt resignation letter is extraordinary, and ought to blow Johnson out of the water. But it will probably have no effect whatsoever.

    That Geidt resignation letter is extraordinary, and ought to blow Johnson out of the water. But it will probably have no effect whatsoever.

    The problem is rather obvious. An unethical PM will not follow ethical advice if it is a hassle to do so.

    The Conservative Party chained themselves to the Zombie Charlatan just 10 days ago, so both they and us are stuck with him.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,587
    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Swiss central bank surprisingly raises interest rates by 50 basis points.

    25pbs from the BoE is going to look like it’s not enough.
    Black Wednesday in miniature.
    It won’t be that bad, but central banks do seem all rather surprised that the massive amounts of money-printing that went on during the pandemic, have led to inflation down the line.

    The next few years are going to be a long ride.
    Who knew that keeping interest rates at stupidly low crisis levels for 13 years whilst printing money like they were playing monopoly could be problematic?
    Looked at this way - we've been propped up artificially for 15 years and can do it no longer - a big crash is inevitable quite soon.
    This is why I don't buy the @MarqueeMark analysis that a change of Conservative Prime Minister achieves a Conservative landslide.

    I accept that a honeymoon follows a change of leader, but I can't see it overturning what looks like the worst economic picture since the 1970s.
  • Presumably the Bank of England financial models suggest that inflation is only transitory. So as interest rate increases only has an impact on inflation in around 2 years time and that inflation then is back to "normal" it is not worth increasing rates now? The problem is whether the model is correct and whether the risk is on the upside or downside.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    I remember last year when we were assured inflation was just transitory. 11% is eye watering and the BoE have yet again bottled taking the tough decision for pain now, rather opting for worse pain down the line (and hoping Ukraine war ends and other things just turn up).

    It failed to become transitory when Russia invaded Ukraine, and China shut down half the country for Covid again. There’s at least a couple of years of inflation to come from here.

    The chair of the Fed was correct, that he sees 3.4% as a reasonable base rate target this year.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    IshmaelZ said:



    Another day, another cathedral

    Is that Coimbra? Interesting old university town.

    I think the Cathedral there doubled as a fortress, hence the arrow slits and thick walls.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841

    I remember last year when we were assured inflation was just transitory. 11% is eye watering and the BoE have yet again bottled taking the tough decision for pain now, rather opting for worse pain down the line (and hoping Ukraine war ends and other things just turn up).

    A not insignificant proportion of us cannot survive 11% intact.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    - am told that this is *definitely* about protecting the UK steel industry

    - also told that Geidt *never* mentioned potential conflicts re Tory donors in his conversations and texts about this with the prime minister

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1537397649065885698
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Now, Mr Sunak, about that 52p-a-litre fuel duty you’re still charging…
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,911
    Sandpit said:

    I remember last year when we were assured inflation was just transitory. 11% is eye watering and the BoE have yet again bottled taking the tough decision for pain now, rather opting for worse pain down the line (and hoping Ukraine war ends and other things just turn up).

    It failed to become transitory when Russia invaded Ukraine, and China shut down half the country for Covid again. There’s at least a couple of years of inflation to come from here.

    The chair of the Fed was correct, that he sees 3.4% as a reasonable base rate target this year.
    It was never transitory. The war in Ukraine is just an excuse.

    25% of the money in existence was printed after 2020.

    Everywhere and always inflation is a monetary phenomenon.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400
    Nigelb said:

    I can understand Johnson's surprise.

    After Geidt had put up with his crap for so long, it must have come out of the blue that he'd decided it was all just too much.

    Even a masochist can find their limit.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Swiss central bank surprisingly raises interest rates by 50 basis points.

    25pbs from the BoE is going to look like it’s not enough.
    Black Wednesday in miniature.
    It won’t be that bad, but central banks do seem all rather surprised that the massive amounts of money-printing that went on during the pandemic, have led to inflation down the line.

    The next few years are going to be a long ride.
    Who knew that keeping interest rates at stupidly low crisis levels for 13 years whilst printing money like they were playing monopoly could be problematic?
    Looked at this way - we've been propped up artificially for 15 years and can do it no longer - a big crash is inevitable quite soon.
    This is why I don't buy the @MarqueeMark analysis that a change of Conservative Prime Minister achieves a Conservative landslide.

    I accept that a honeymoon follows a change of leader, but I can't see it overturning what looks like the worst economic picture since the 1970s.
    Fear of Labournomics, cling to nurse effect. Not saying they will happen but they are factors to consider.
    As is some artificial display of being less in shit than the EU etc
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    dixiedean said:

    FTSE down 2.4% and falling.

    Been a desperate year for investments
    Currently looking at my 195th birthday to take my pensions
    Die at your desk like a real man/woman, that's my plan.
    Not currently working. Quicker i can take my pensions, quicker i get off the state teat
    Timing is everything though, you certainly would not live the high life on state pension only. £740 a month.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Swiss central bank surprisingly raises interest rates by 50 basis points.

    25pbs from the BoE is going to look like it’s not enough.
    Black Wednesday in miniature.
    It won’t be that bad, but central banks do seem all rather surprised that the massive amounts of money-printing that went on during the pandemic, have led to inflation down the line.

    The next few years are going to be a long ride.
    Who knew that keeping interest rates at stupidly low crisis levels for 13 years whilst printing money like they were playing monopoly could be problematic?
    Looked at this way - we've been propped up artificially for 15 years and can do it no longer - a big crash is inevitable quite soon.
    This is why I don't buy the @MarqueeMark analysis that a change of Conservative Prime Minister achieves a Conservative landslide.

    I accept that a honeymoon follows a change of leader, but I can't see it overturning what looks like the worst economic picture since the 1970s.
    The change of leader needs to be accompanied by a change of policy, towards a smaller state levying lower and simpler taxes.
  • Presumably the Bank of England financial models suggest that inflation is only transitory. So as interest rate increases only has an impact on inflation in around 2 years time and that inflation then is back to "normal" it is not worth increasing rates now? The problem is whether the model is correct and whether the risk is on the upside or downside.

    34. In the MPC’s central projections in the May Monetary Policy Report, UK GDP growth had been expected to slow sharply over the first half of the forecast period and, although the labour market had been expected to tighten slightly further in the near term, the unemployment rate had been projected to rise to 5½% in three years’ time. CPI inflation had been expected to average slightly over 10% at its peak in 2022 Q4. Conditioned on the rising market-implied path for Bank Rate at that time and the MPC’s forecasting convention for future energy prices, CPI inflation had been projected to fall to a little above the 2% target in two years’ time, largely reflecting the waning influence of external factors, and to be well below the target in three years, mainly reflecting weaker domestic pressures. The risks to the inflation projection had been judged to be skewed to the upside at these points.

    https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2022/june-2022
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:



    Another day, another cathedral

    Is that Coimbra? Interesting old university town.

    I think the Cathedral there doubled as a fortress, hence the arrow slits and thick walls.
    Monreale Sicily. Norman, 1178
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Sandpit said:

    I remember last year when we were assured inflation was just transitory. 11% is eye watering and the BoE have yet again bottled taking the tough decision for pain now, rather opting for worse pain down the line (and hoping Ukraine war ends and other things just turn up).

    It failed to become transitory when Russia invaded Ukraine, and China shut down half the country for Covid again. There’s at least a couple of years of inflation to come from here.

    The chair of the Fed was correct, that he sees 3.4% as a reasonable base rate target this year.
    The thing is 3% interest rates by historic standards are on the low end of "normal". The problem is past 15 years (and for a lot of people the whole time they have had a mortgage) have never experienced such rates and planned their finances based upon this abnormally low rates (which in turn has jacked up house prices as everybody thinks they can afford more than they can if rates ever return to normal levels).
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    Presumably the Bank of England financial models suggest that inflation is only transitory. So as interest rate increases only has an impact on inflation in around 2 years time and that inflation then is back to "normal" it is not worth increasing rates now? The problem is whether the model is correct and whether the risk is on the upside or downside.

    Hard to see it being short term given all the signs
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    malcolmg said:

    dixiedean said:

    FTSE down 2.4% and falling.

    Been a desperate year for investments
    Not good for pension pots
    Yes, mine has dropped about 2-years' income worth already. It makes me wonder what we pay fund managers for if not to forecast and react to market conditions. Making the right connections at Oxbridge, I expect.
    It is a bit brutal for equity investors. My overseas portfolio is down 15% over 6 months, my domestic portfolio about 10%. Both better than the markets, but losing money less quickly isn't much solace.

    I am holding for the long term.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400

    There is, surely, a lot more to come out on this.

    The Downing Street response implies that the request was simply over a conflict of domestic law and international obligations. However, that's a legal matter rather than an ethical one, and Geidt's implication is that it related to an intentional breach of the Ministerial Code.

    This leaves major questions open. What was the proposal? Which parts of the Code were engaged? This story has some way to run.

    That Geidt stayed put over Partygate but went over this rather mysterious matter is rather telling. It sounds like dynamite.
    Unless Geidt gets explicit it wont be dynamite sadly. We've seen the gov pushback that hes talking nonsense basically.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    I can understand Johnson's surprise.

    After Geidt had put up with his crap for so long, it must have come out of the blue that he'd decided it was all just too much.

    Even a masochist can find their limit.
    Though the effect of his resignation has been somewhat blunted by what he has put up with and remained in post.
    And Johnson has a defence, however threadbare, to the steel tariffs thing - "national interest".

    I am not impressed at all by Geidt, though he has finally done the right thing.
  • Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    dixiedean said:

    FTSE down 2.4% and falling.

    Been a desperate year for investments
    Not good for pension pots
    But not a bad buying opportunity if you are buying for the long term.
    Maybe. Athough you know what they say about trying to catch a falling knife.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Swiss central bank surprisingly raises interest rates by 50 basis points.

    25pbs from the BoE is going to look like it’s not enough.
    Black Wednesday in miniature.
    It won’t be that bad, but central banks do seem all rather surprised that the massive amounts of money-printing that went on during the pandemic, have led to inflation down the line.

    The next few years are going to be a long ride.
    Who knew that keeping interest rates at stupidly low crisis levels for 13 years whilst printing money like they were playing monopoly could be problematic?
    Looked at this way - we've been propped up artificially for 15 years and can do it no longer - a big crash is inevitable quite soon.
    This is why I don't buy the @MarqueeMark analysis that a change of Conservative Prime Minister achieves a Conservative landslide.

    I accept that a honeymoon follows a change of leader, but I can't see it overturning what looks like the worst economic picture since the 1970s.
    The change of leader needs to be accompanied by a change of policy, towards a smaller state levying lower and simpler taxes.
    Yet your typical Tory vote is retired or approaching retirement and wants their sweeties / freebies.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,587
    Dura_Ace said:

    Animal welfare (certainly in the sense of government doing something) is never discussed in any social group I go out with - cost of living, brexit, housing, johnsons parties are but not animal welfare

    It comes up occasionally and unprompted among my A-level students when discussing politics. Certainly more than house prices, interest rates or any of that chutney. The only other political topic that gets as much interest is climate change.

    DA, your man on the spot with multi-lingual teenage focus groups.
    ...but they are all lefty liberal intellectuals who want to speak in tongues of the Devil. If they were young, wannabe PB Conservatives they would be telling you all about how unfair the ECHR is to Little Englanders.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited June 2022
    Foxy said:

    malcolmg said:

    dixiedean said:

    FTSE down 2.4% and falling.

    Been a desperate year for investments
    Not good for pension pots
    Yes, mine has dropped about 2-years' income worth already. It makes me wonder what we pay fund managers for if not to forecast and react to market conditions. Making the right connections at Oxbridge, I expect.
    It is a bit brutal for equity investors. My overseas portfolio is down 15% over 6 months, my domestic portfolio about 10%. Both better than the markets, but losing money less quickly isn't much solace.

    I am holding for the long term.
    My worry for a long time has been all these tech "unicorns". So much money has been piled into all these companies who never make any money with the promise that once they burned through billions that eventually they will dominant the market and make money.

    A classic example, all the delivery apps, none of them made any sodding money even during the pandemic when we were all locked in our homes!

    The tide is going out and there is going to be a more naked swimmers than your typical nudist beach.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Swiss central bank surprisingly raises interest rates by 50 basis points.

    25pbs from the BoE is going to look like it’s not enough.
    Black Wednesday in miniature.
    It won’t be that bad, but central banks do seem all rather surprised that the massive amounts of money-printing that went on during the pandemic, have led to inflation down the line.

    The next few years are going to be a long ride.
    Who knew that keeping interest rates at stupidly low crisis levels for 13 years whilst printing money like they were playing monopoly could be problematic?
    Looked at this way - we've been propped up artificially for 15 years and can do it no longer - a big crash is inevitable quite soon.
    This is why I don't buy the @MarqueeMark analysis that a change of Conservative Prime Minister achieves a Conservative landslide.

    I accept that a honeymoon follows a change of leader, but I can't see it overturning what looks like the worst economic picture since the 1970s.
    Morduant is also a blank slate to paint "the new Maggie" on, so does tend to get the juices flowing for PB Tories of a certain age. How she copes with the real world is yet to be seen.

    I am strongly green on her for next Leader, but think Johnson will cling on until the next GE.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Sandpit said:

    I remember last year when we were assured inflation was just transitory. 11% is eye watering and the BoE have yet again bottled taking the tough decision for pain now, rather opting for worse pain down the line (and hoping Ukraine war ends and other things just turn up).

    It failed to become transitory when Russia invaded Ukraine, and China shut down half the country for Covid again. There’s at least a couple of years of inflation to come from here.

    The chair of the Fed was correct, that he sees 3.4% as a reasonable base rate target this year.
    The thing is 3% interest rates by historic standards are on the low end of "normal". The problem is past 15 years (and for a lot of people the whole time they have had a mortgage) have never experienced such rates and planned their finances based upon this abnormally low rates (which in turn has jacked up house prices as everybody thinks they can afford more than they can if rates ever return to normal levels).
    Yup. Anyone younger than 35 has never experienced interest rates above 1% as an adult.

    The 50-year graph shows what an anomaly the last few years has been.

  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,678

    I remember last year when we were assured inflation was just transitory. 11% is eye watering and the BoE have yet again bottled taking the tough decision for pain now, rather opting for worse pain down the line (and hoping Ukraine war ends and other things just turn up).

    A not insignificant proportion of us cannot survive 11% intact.
    Now is the summer of our discontent?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:



    Another day, another cathedral

    Is that Coimbra? Interesting old university town.

    I think the Cathedral there doubled as a fortress, hence the arrow slits and thick walls.
    Monreale Sicily. Norman, 1178
    Similar style, I was mixing you up with our Portuguese travel reporter.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841

    Sandpit said:

    I remember last year when we were assured inflation was just transitory. 11% is eye watering and the BoE have yet again bottled taking the tough decision for pain now, rather opting for worse pain down the line (and hoping Ukraine war ends and other things just turn up).

    It failed to become transitory when Russia invaded Ukraine, and China shut down half the country for Covid again. There’s at least a couple of years of inflation to come from here.

    The chair of the Fed was correct, that he sees 3.4% as a reasonable base rate target this year.
    The thing is 3% interest rates by historic standards are on the low end of "normal". The problem is past 15 years (and for a lot of people the whole time they have had a mortgage) have never experienced such rates and planned their finances based upon this abnormally low rates (which in turn has jacked up house prices as everybody thinks they can afford more than they can if rates ever return to normal levels).
    Yes. The government will be enacting emergency legislation to prevent mass repossessions within 2 years.
    Central bankers and politicians backing them need to be held to account for the ludicrous suppression of interest rates and frankly disgraceful QE programmes that have screwed us utterly.
    Rotten establishment from top to bottom.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    malcolmg said:
    I used it a couple of times when my daughter was studying in Holland. It was a superb way to get to Europe with your car, free to go where you want. It would be great to see it back but my understanding is that it never made a profit before.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,343
    malcolmg said:

    dixiedean said:

    FTSE down 2.4% and falling.

    Been a desperate year for investments
    FTSE just about where it was at the end of 1999

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    Foxy said:

    malcolmg said:

    dixiedean said:

    FTSE down 2.4% and falling.

    Been a desperate year for investments
    Not good for pension pots
    Yes, mine has dropped about 2-years' income worth already. It makes me wonder what we pay fund managers for if not to forecast and react to market conditions. Making the right connections at Oxbridge, I expect.
    It is a bit brutal for equity investors. My overseas portfolio is down 15% over 6 months, my domestic portfolio about 10%. Both better than the markets, but losing money less quickly isn't much solace.

    I am holding for the long term.
    My worry for a long time has been all these tech "unicorns". So much money has been piled into all these companies who never make any money with the promise that once they burned through billions that eventually they will dominant the market and make money.

    A classic example, all the delivery apps, none of them made any sodding money even during the pandemic when we were all locked in our homes!

    The tide is going out and there is going to be a more naked swimmers than your typical nudist beach.
    I mostly do "Value Investing" and don't touch companies where I cannot see how they make a profit, or by what means. I have missed a few good buys that way.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:
    I used it a couple of times when my daughter was studying in Holland. It was a superb way to get to Europe with your car, free to go where you want. It would be great to see it back but my understanding is that it never made a profit before.
    David, perhaps the £250m spent on two rusting hulks could have been wiser spent, or some of the other debacles even.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    algarkirk said:

    malcolmg said:

    dixiedean said:

    FTSE down 2.4% and falling.

    Been a desperate year for investments
    FTSE just about where it was at the end of 1999

    Not by total return though. A lot of FTSE100 dividends paid out in that time.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    I can understand Johnson's surprise.

    After Geidt had put up with his crap for so long, it must have come out of the blue that he'd decided it was all just too much.

    Even a masochist can find their limit.
    Though the effect of his resignation has been somewhat blunted by what he has put up with and remained in post.
    And Johnson has a defence, however threadbare, to the steel tariffs thing - "national interest".

    I am not impressed at all by Geidt, though he has finally done the right thing.
    Agreed. What he put up with, accepted as explanations, makes him look like a chump. Reticence to get into detail now just undermines his attempt to explain why this was the line.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Foxy said:

    malcolmg said:

    dixiedean said:

    FTSE down 2.4% and falling.

    Been a desperate year for investments
    Not good for pension pots
    Yes, mine has dropped about 2-years' income worth already. It makes me wonder what we pay fund managers for if not to forecast and react to market conditions. Making the right connections at Oxbridge, I expect.
    It is a bit brutal for equity investors. My overseas portfolio is down 15% over 6 months, my domestic portfolio about 10%. Both better than the markets, but losing money less quickly isn't much solace.

    I am holding for the long term.
    My worry for a long time has been all these tech "unicorns". So much money has been piled into all these companies who never make any money with the promise that once they burned through billions that eventually they will dominant the market and make money.

    A classic example, all the delivery apps, none of them made any sodding money even during the pandemic when we were all locked in our homes!

    The tide is going out and there is going to be a more naked swimmers than your typical nudist beach.
    I have never understood delivery apps - exactly how many people will pay the actual cost of someone waiting round to delivery that burger and fries to you from 2 miles away.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,587

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Swiss central bank surprisingly raises interest rates by 50 basis points.

    25pbs from the BoE is going to look like it’s not enough.
    Black Wednesday in miniature.
    It won’t be that bad, but central banks do seem all rather surprised that the massive amounts of money-printing that went on during the pandemic, have led to inflation down the line.

    The next few years are going to be a long ride.
    Who knew that keeping interest rates at stupidly low crisis levels for 13 years whilst printing money like they were playing monopoly could be problematic?
    Looked at this way - we've been propped up artificially for 15 years and can do it no longer - a big crash is inevitable quite soon.
    This is why I don't buy the @MarqueeMark analysis that a change of Conservative Prime Minister achieves a Conservative landslide.

    I accept that a honeymoon follows a change of leader, but I can't see it overturning what looks like the worst economic picture since the 1970s.
    Fear of Labournomics, cling to nurse effect. Not saying they will happen but they are factors to consider.
    As is some artificial display of being less in shit than the EU etc
    ...but aren't we forecast to be the worst performing G7 nation in the foreseeable future.

    It may be naïve, but I don't suppose voters could care less about what is going on in France and Germany if they are unable to put food on the table or fuel in the tank in the UK. Incumbency means taking the rough with the smooth.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:
    I used it a couple of times when my daughter was studying in Holland. It was a superb way to get to Europe with your car, free to go where you want. It would be great to see it back but my understanding is that it never made a profit before.
    Also it should be a top government priority to have direct routes to Europe.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,870
    Ratters said:

    The BoE started tightening first but this decision puts us well behind the US.

    Bailey is the problem. Three MPC members voted for 0.5% hikes the last two meetings but Bailey always voted against. As the Chair I presume his view sways those on the fence, and so with someone else in charge we'd be in a different place.

    I didn’t realise at the time that Andrew Bailey’s attempts to destroy the financial services profession was him practicing to destroy the wider economy. Does he has shares in property companies?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited June 2022
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    malcolmg said:

    dixiedean said:

    FTSE down 2.4% and falling.

    Been a desperate year for investments
    Not good for pension pots
    Yes, mine has dropped about 2-years' income worth already. It makes me wonder what we pay fund managers for if not to forecast and react to market conditions. Making the right connections at Oxbridge, I expect.
    It is a bit brutal for equity investors. My overseas portfolio is down 15% over 6 months, my domestic portfolio about 10%. Both better than the markets, but losing money less quickly isn't much solace.

    I am holding for the long term.
    My worry for a long time has been all these tech "unicorns". So much money has been piled into all these companies who never make any money with the promise that once they burned through billions that eventually they will dominant the market and make money.

    A classic example, all the delivery apps, none of them made any sodding money even during the pandemic when we were all locked in our homes!

    The tide is going out and there is going to be a more naked swimmers than your typical nudist beach.
    I mostly do "Value Investing" and don't touch companies where I cannot see how they make a profit, or by what means. I have missed a few good buys that way.
    My concern is that if we see another repeat of the dot com bust that it causes contagion throughout. So much money has been thrown at seemingly any company who mentions machine learning or AI and that they have an "app" that leverages it (insert any old crap e.g. renting office space), with seemingly no route to profitability.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    dixiedean said:

    FTSE down 2.4% and falling.

    Been a desperate year for investments
    Currently looking at my 195th birthday to take my pensions
    Die at your desk like a real man/woman, that's my plan.
    Not currently working. Quicker i can take my pensions, quicker i get off the state teat
    Timing is everything though, you certainly would not live the high life on state pension only. £740 a month.
    Oh definitely not. Ive got 3 final salary schemes and a defined contribution scheme to take. My aim is for them to replace my benefits if i remain unable to work and then when 67 the State pension tops it all off. Firtunately when i was hale and hearty i had good income and good pension schemes. Things are not currently easy. Id be screwed if i had a family to look after.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:
    I used it a couple of times when my daughter was studying in Holland. It was a superb way to get to Europe with your car, free to go where you want. It would be great to see it back but my understanding is that it never made a profit before.
    David, perhaps the £250m spent on two rusting hulks could have been wiser spent, or some of the other debacles even.
    I am pretty sure that whoever sets it up (and I hope they do) will not be asking advice from the SG about where to get a ferry, that's for sure.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited June 2022
    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    malcolmg said:

    dixiedean said:

    FTSE down 2.4% and falling.

    Been a desperate year for investments
    Not good for pension pots
    Yes, mine has dropped about 2-years' income worth already. It makes me wonder what we pay fund managers for if not to forecast and react to market conditions. Making the right connections at Oxbridge, I expect.
    It is a bit brutal for equity investors. My overseas portfolio is down 15% over 6 months, my domestic portfolio about 10%. Both better than the markets, but losing money less quickly isn't much solace.

    I am holding for the long term.
    My worry for a long time has been all these tech "unicorns". So much money has been piled into all these companies who never make any money with the promise that once they burned through billions that eventually they will dominant the market and make money.

    A classic example, all the delivery apps, none of them made any sodding money even during the pandemic when we were all locked in our homes!

    The tide is going out and there is going to be a more naked swimmers than your typical nudist beach.
    I have never understood delivery apps - exactly how many people will pay the actual cost of someone waiting round to delivery that burger and fries to you from 2 miles away.

    A few disabled or drunk people in cities, that’s it.

    The whole business model makes no sense at all, unless the business model is to eat through VC cash as fast as possible, shovelling it to the people who work there.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,056

    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    dixiedean said:

    FTSE down 2.4% and falling.

    Been a desperate year for investments
    Currently looking at my 195th birthday to take my pensions
    Die at your desk like a real man/woman, that's my plan.
    Not currently working. Quicker i can take my pensions, quicker i get off the state teat
    Timing is everything though, you certainly would not live the high life on state pension only. £740 a month.
    Oh definitely not. Ive got 3 final salary schemes and a defined contribution scheme to take. My aim is for them to replace my benefits if i remain unable to work and then when 67 the State pension tops it all off. Firtunately when i was hale and hearty i had good income and good pension schemes. Things are not currently easy. Id be screwed if i had a family to look after.
    Does the benefits agency insist you take private pensions as soon as possible, so as to reduce their bill?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    edited June 2022

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Swiss central bank surprisingly raises interest rates by 50 basis points.

    25pbs from the BoE is going to look like it’s not enough.
    Black Wednesday in miniature.
    It won’t be that bad, but central banks do seem all rather surprised that the massive amounts of money-printing that went on during the pandemic, have led to inflation down the line.

    The next few years are going to be a long ride.
    Who knew that keeping interest rates at stupidly low crisis levels for 13 years whilst printing money like they were playing monopoly could be problematic?
    Looked at this way - we've been propped up artificially for 15 years and can do it no longer - a big crash is inevitable quite soon.
    This is why I don't buy the @MarqueeMark analysis that a change of Conservative Prime Minister achieves a Conservative landslide.

    I accept that a honeymoon follows a change of leader, but I can't see it overturning what looks like the worst economic picture since the 1970s.
    Fear of Labournomics, cling to nurse effect. Not saying they will happen but they are factors to consider.
    As is some artificial display of being less in shit than the EU etc
    ...but aren't we forecast to be the worst performing G7 nation in the foreseeable future.

    It may be naïve, but I don't suppose voters could care less about what is going on in France and Germany if they are unable to put food on the table or fuel in the tank in the UK. Incumbency means taking the rough with the smooth.
    'It started in America' etc
    Blame game/scapegoating
    Playing up brexit - we would be worse if we'd stayed
    All strands that have been tried historically or might be played now.
    Its not a zero sum game, smoke and mirrors can still work in a recession, as can fear of the unknown.
    Not saying it will work or is moral but not convinced it won't/can't/is etc
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited June 2022
    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    malcolmg said:

    dixiedean said:

    FTSE down 2.4% and falling.

    Been a desperate year for investments
    Not good for pension pots
    Yes, mine has dropped about 2-years' income worth already. It makes me wonder what we pay fund managers for if not to forecast and react to market conditions. Making the right connections at Oxbridge, I expect.
    It is a bit brutal for equity investors. My overseas portfolio is down 15% over 6 months, my domestic portfolio about 10%. Both better than the markets, but losing money less quickly isn't much solace.

    I am holding for the long term.
    My worry for a long time has been all these tech "unicorns". So much money has been piled into all these companies who never make any money with the promise that once they burned through billions that eventually they will dominant the market and make money.

    A classic example, all the delivery apps, none of them made any sodding money even during the pandemic when we were all locked in our homes!

    The tide is going out and there is going to be a more naked swimmers than your typical nudist beach.
    I have never understood delivery apps - exactly how many people will pay the actual cost of someone waiting round to delivery that burger and fries to you from 2 miles away.

    I never got that either. The delivery cost always seems so stupidly high I never use them, but then I see teenagers / students (who aren't supposed to have loads of spare cash) use them like you can't actually visit the outlet themselves.

    My understanding is the key problem is that the barrier to entry is so low that the anybody can come into the market, thus as a result they have to spend stupid amounts of money on advertising and promotions to key those that deliver. And of course its bad news for the restaurants themselves as they get hit with a big chunk of that cost.

    There has been consolidation in the space, but still are spending eye watering sums to keep customers and of course recession incoming, who is going to pay £3.50 delivery charge on a £5 takeaway when you are brassic.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    dixiedean said:

    FTSE down 2.4% and falling.

    Been a desperate year for investments
    Currently looking at my 195th birthday to take my pensions
    Die at your desk like a real man/woman, that's my plan.
    Not currently working. Quicker i can take my pensions, quicker i get off the state teat
    Timing is everything though, you certainly would not live the high life on state pension only. £740 a month.
    Oh definitely not. Ive got 3 final salary schemes and a defined contribution scheme to take. My aim is for them to replace my benefits if i remain unable to work and then when 67 the State pension tops it all off. Firtunately when i was hale and hearty i had good income and good pension schemes. Things are not currently easy. Id be screwed if i had a family to look after.
    Good to hear. I cashed in my final salary scheme, now in the ppp scheme. Was doing very well indeed till start of this year but still good bit ahead, just need to keep an eye on it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    Presumably the Bank of England financial models suggest that inflation is only transitory. So as interest rate increases only has an impact on inflation in around 2 years time and that inflation then is back to "normal" it is not worth increasing rates now? The problem is whether the model is correct and whether the risk is on the upside or downside.

    34. In the MPC’s central projections in the May Monetary Policy Report, UK GDP growth had been expected to slow sharply over the first half of the forecast period and, although the labour market had been expected to tighten slightly further in the near term, the unemployment rate had been projected to rise to 5½% in three years’ time. CPI inflation had been expected to average slightly over 10% at its peak in 2022 Q4. Conditioned on the rising market-implied path for Bank Rate at that time and the MPC’s forecasting convention for future energy prices, CPI inflation had been projected to fall to a little above the 2% target in two years’ time, largely reflecting the waning influence of external factors, and to be well below the target in three years, mainly reflecting weaker domestic pressures. The risks to the inflation projection had been judged to be skewed to the upside at these points.

    https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2022/june-2022
    6-3 for 0.25% with 3 voting for 0.5%. That's very likely to be the BoE forming the bulk of the majority and the outsiders wanting more radical action.

    As inflation bounds ahead the real rate of interest, of course, becomes more and more radically negative. An increase of 0.25% and then a delay of 2 months means that our monetary policy is in fact becoming even looser at a time of very high and increasing inflation. The hope is that these external factors are transitory but in the meantime we will see wages, food prices and pretty much everything else going up. To be blunt, I really cannot follow the logic of the majority.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    edited June 2022
    carnforth said:

    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    dixiedean said:

    FTSE down 2.4% and falling.

    Been a desperate year for investments
    Currently looking at my 195th birthday to take my pensions
    Die at your desk like a real man/woman, that's my plan.
    Not currently working. Quicker i can take my pensions, quicker i get off the state teat
    Timing is everything though, you certainly would not live the high life on state pension only. £740 a month.
    Oh definitely not. Ive got 3 final salary schemes and a defined contribution scheme to take. My aim is for them to replace my benefits if i remain unable to work and then when 67 the State pension tops it all off. Firtunately when i was hale and hearty i had good income and good pension schemes. Things are not currently easy. Id be screwed if i had a family to look after.
    Does the benefits agency insist you take private pensions as soon as possible, so as to reduce their bill?
    No. Thats a personal choice.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 6,764

    The Conservatives will win more seats at the next General Election.

    PM Mordaunt will get a 3-figure majority.

    Anyone else remember the earliest days of pb, when Iain Dale would post about how he was going to beat Norman Lamb in North Norfolk, and that other Tory in Torbay was certain he was going to beat the LibDems? That's you, that is.
    What a nice thing to say.

    Jerk.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    malcolmg said:

    dixiedean said:

    FTSE down 2.4% and falling.

    Been a desperate year for investments
    Not good for pension pots
    Yes, mine has dropped about 2-years' income worth already. It makes me wonder what we pay fund managers for if not to forecast and react to market conditions. Making the right connections at Oxbridge, I expect.
    It is a bit brutal for equity investors. My overseas portfolio is down 15% over 6 months, my domestic portfolio about 10%. Both better than the markets, but losing money less quickly isn't much solace.

    I am holding for the long term.
    My worry for a long time has been all these tech "unicorns". So much money has been piled into all these companies who never make any money with the promise that once they burned through billions that eventually they will dominant the market and make money.

    A classic example, all the delivery apps, none of them made any sodding money even during the pandemic when we were all locked in our homes!

    The tide is going out and there is going to be a more naked swimmers than your typical nudist beach.
    I have never understood delivery apps - exactly how many people will pay the actual cost of someone waiting round to delivery that burger and fries to you from 2 miles away.

    When we were in York a couple of weeks ago, there were dozens of delivery men (always men...) packing up insulated cartons from the various food stores.

    Here in Cambourne, we have cute little robots.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1z5r-AFy2a8

    (And no, I've no idea how they'll make this pay...)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited June 2022
    DavidL said:

    Presumably the Bank of England financial models suggest that inflation is only transitory. So as interest rate increases only has an impact on inflation in around 2 years time and that inflation then is back to "normal" it is not worth increasing rates now? The problem is whether the model is correct and whether the risk is on the upside or downside.

    34. In the MPC’s central projections in the May Monetary Policy Report, UK GDP growth had been expected to slow sharply over the first half of the forecast period and, although the labour market had been expected to tighten slightly further in the near term, the unemployment rate had been projected to rise to 5½% in three years’ time. CPI inflation had been expected to average slightly over 10% at its peak in 2022 Q4. Conditioned on the rising market-implied path for Bank Rate at that time and the MPC’s forecasting convention for future energy prices, CPI inflation had been projected to fall to a little above the 2% target in two years’ time, largely reflecting the waning influence of external factors, and to be well below the target in three years, mainly reflecting weaker domestic pressures. The risks to the inflation projection had been judged to be skewed to the upside at these points.

    https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2022/june-2022
    6-3 for 0.25% with 3 voting for 0.5%. That's very likely to be the BoE forming the bulk of the majority and the outsiders wanting more radical action.

    As inflation bounds ahead the real rate of interest, of course, becomes more and more radically negative. An increase of 0.25% and then a delay of 2 months means that our monetary policy is in fact becoming even looser at a time of very high and increasing inflation. The hope is that these external factors are transitory but in the meantime we will see wages, food prices and pretty much everything else going up. To be blunt, I really cannot follow the logic of the majority.
    What on Earth do they do, when the Fed adds 75bps more to the US$ base rate next month?

    At some point reality will hit them on the arse, and we’ll end up seeing 150bps in one go. That will wake everyone up.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    FFS.

    A Whitehall source says the 'odious' decision referred to by Lord Geidt refers to proposed protections for the UK steel industry, adding: 'We're happy to be judged on that in the Red Wall'
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400
    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    malcolmg said:

    dixiedean said:

    FTSE down 2.4% and falling.

    Been a desperate year for investments
    Not good for pension pots
    Yes, mine has dropped about 2-years' income worth already. It makes me wonder what we pay fund managers for if not to forecast and react to market conditions. Making the right connections at Oxbridge, I expect.
    It is a bit brutal for equity investors. My overseas portfolio is down 15% over 6 months, my domestic portfolio about 10%. Both better than the markets, but losing money less quickly isn't much solace.

    I am holding for the long term.
    My worry for a long time has been all these tech "unicorns". So much money has been piled into all these companies who never make any money with the promise that once they burned through billions that eventually they will dominant the market and make money.

    A classic example, all the delivery apps, none of them made any sodding money even during the pandemic when we were all locked in our homes!

    The tide is going out and there is going to be a more naked swimmers than your typical nudist beach.
    I have never understood delivery apps - exactly how many people will pay the actual cost of someone waiting round to delivery that burger and fries to you from 2 miles away.

    I would and do, I'll be sad if they cannot make them economically viable as not enough others would.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    malcolmg said:

    dixiedean said:

    FTSE down 2.4% and falling.

    Been a desperate year for investments
    Not good for pension pots
    Yes, mine has dropped about 2-years' income worth already. It makes me wonder what we pay fund managers for if not to forecast and react to market conditions. Making the right connections at Oxbridge, I expect.
    It is a bit brutal for equity investors. My overseas portfolio is down 15% over 6 months, my domestic portfolio about 10%. Both better than the markets, but losing money less quickly isn't much solace.

    I am holding for the long term.
    My worry for a long time has been all these tech "unicorns". So much money has been piled into all these companies who never make any money with the promise that once they burned through billions that eventually they will dominant the market and make money.

    A classic example, all the delivery apps, none of them made any sodding money even during the pandemic when we were all locked in our homes!

    The tide is going out and there is going to be a more naked swimmers than your typical nudist beach.
    I have never understood delivery apps - exactly how many people will pay the actual cost of someone waiting round to delivery that burger and fries to you from 2 miles away.

    A few disabled or drunk people in cities, that’s it.

    The whole business model makes no sense at all, unless the business model is to eat through VC cash as fast as possible, shovelling it to the people who work there.
    Takeaways have done deliveries for years before smartphones. Centralising that service and charging fees to both the buyer and the seller can be profitable.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Presumably the Bank of England financial models suggest that inflation is only transitory. So as interest rate increases only has an impact on inflation in around 2 years time and that inflation then is back to "normal" it is not worth increasing rates now? The problem is whether the model is correct and whether the risk is on the upside or downside.

    34. In the MPC’s central projections in the May Monetary Policy Report, UK GDP growth had been expected to slow sharply over the first half of the forecast period and, although the labour market had been expected to tighten slightly further in the near term, the unemployment rate had been projected to rise to 5½% in three years’ time. CPI inflation had been expected to average slightly over 10% at its peak in 2022 Q4. Conditioned on the rising market-implied path for Bank Rate at that time and the MPC’s forecasting convention for future energy prices, CPI inflation had been projected to fall to a little above the 2% target in two years’ time, largely reflecting the waning influence of external factors, and to be well below the target in three years, mainly reflecting weaker domestic pressures. The risks to the inflation projection had been judged to be skewed to the upside at these points.

    https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2022/june-2022
    6-3 for 0.25% with 3 voting for 0.5%. That's very likely to be the BoE forming the bulk of the majority and the outsiders wanting more radical action.

    As inflation bounds ahead the real rate of interest, of course, becomes more and more radically negative. An increase of 0.25% and then a delay of 2 months means that our monetary policy is in fact becoming even looser at a time of very high and increasing inflation. The hope is that these external factors are transitory but in the meantime we will see wages, food prices and pretty much everything else going up. To be blunt, I really cannot follow the logic of the majority.
    What on Earth do they do, when the Fed adds 75bps more to the US$ base rate next month?

    At some point reality will hit them on the arse, and we’ll end up seeing 150bps in one go. That will wake everyone up.
    Here's the reality, decades of fellating home owners leads to this.

    It is also why I think changing Tory leader won't have much impact


  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    edited June 2022
    Foxy said:

    malcolmg said:

    dixiedean said:

    FTSE down 2.4% and falling.

    Been a desperate year for investments
    Not good for pension pots
    Yes, mine has dropped about 2-years' income worth already. It makes me wonder what we pay fund managers for if not to forecast and react to market conditions. Making the right connections at Oxbridge, I expect.
    It is a bit brutal for equity investors. My overseas portfolio is down 15% over 6 months, my domestic portfolio about 10%. Both better than the markets, but losing money less quickly isn't much solace.

    I am holding for the long term.
    Hard thing is not selling. Was an option a week or two ago and I was tempted but did not do it, all 3 back down again.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited June 2022

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    malcolmg said:

    dixiedean said:

    FTSE down 2.4% and falling.

    Been a desperate year for investments
    Not good for pension pots
    Yes, mine has dropped about 2-years' income worth already. It makes me wonder what we pay fund managers for if not to forecast and react to market conditions. Making the right connections at Oxbridge, I expect.
    It is a bit brutal for equity investors. My overseas portfolio is down 15% over 6 months, my domestic portfolio about 10%. Both better than the markets, but losing money less quickly isn't much solace.

    I am holding for the long term.
    My worry for a long time has been all these tech "unicorns". So much money has been piled into all these companies who never make any money with the promise that once they burned through billions that eventually they will dominant the market and make money.

    A classic example, all the delivery apps, none of them made any sodding money even during the pandemic when we were all locked in our homes!

    The tide is going out and there is going to be a more naked swimmers than your typical nudist beach.
    I have never understood delivery apps - exactly how many people will pay the actual cost of someone waiting round to delivery that burger and fries to you from 2 miles away.

    A few disabled or drunk people in cities, that’s it.

    The whole business model makes no sense at all, unless the business model is to eat through VC cash as fast as possible, shovelling it to the people who work there.
    Takeaways have done deliveries for years before smartphones. Centralising that service and charging fees to both the buyer and the seller can be profitable.
    Only a minority have and normally only a small window during peak time in a restricted area. The likes of Uber Eats are offering basically 24/7 service for every type of food you can ever imagine, you want a McDonalds at 5am, no problem use the app, but that can't make money in the grand scheme of things.

    Despite paying the drivers / riders crap wages and no benefits, charging restaurants crazy amount of commission and certainly not cheap for the end customer, yet after that they still lose money hand over fist.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    dixiedean said:

    FTSE down 2.4% and falling.

    Been a desperate year for investments
    Currently looking at my 195th birthday to take my pensions
    Die at your desk like a real man/woman, that's my plan.
    Not currently working. Quicker i can take my pensions, quicker i get off the state teat
    Timing is everything though, you certainly would not live the high life on state pension only. £740 a month.
    Oh definitely not. Ive got 3 final salary schemes and a defined contribution scheme to take. My aim is for them to replace my benefits if i remain unable to work and then when 67 the State pension tops it all off. Firtunately when i was hale and hearty i had good income and good pension schemes. Things are not currently easy. Id be screwed if i had a family to look after.
    Good to hear. I cashed in my final salary scheme, now in the ppp scheme. Was doing very well indeed till start of this year but still good bit ahead, just need to keep an eye on it.
    Yeah. Its a wait and see thing. I've moved everything back a year for now. Worst case i guess i'll cobble something together that will be liveable but not exactly extravagent. But then my hobby (chess) is inexpensive and i no longer drive so a couple trips to northern Scotland by train a year and a couple trips away to chess congresses and pay the bills and im good.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,624

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    malcolmg said:

    dixiedean said:

    FTSE down 2.4% and falling.

    Been a desperate year for investments
    Not good for pension pots
    Yes, mine has dropped about 2-years' income worth already. It makes me wonder what we pay fund managers for if not to forecast and react to market conditions. Making the right connections at Oxbridge, I expect.
    It is a bit brutal for equity investors. My overseas portfolio is down 15% over 6 months, my domestic portfolio about 10%. Both better than the markets, but losing money less quickly isn't much solace.

    I am holding for the long term.
    My worry for a long time has been all these tech "unicorns". So much money has been piled into all these companies who never make any money with the promise that once they burned through billions that eventually they will dominant the market and make money.

    A classic example, all the delivery apps, none of them made any sodding money even during the pandemic when we were all locked in our homes!

    The tide is going out and there is going to be a more naked swimmers than your typical nudist beach.
    I have never understood delivery apps - exactly how many people will pay the actual cost of someone waiting round to delivery that burger and fries to you from 2 miles away.

    A few disabled or drunk people in cities, that’s it.

    The whole business model makes no sense at all, unless the business model is to eat through VC cash as fast as possible, shovelling it to the people who work there.
    Takeaways have done deliveries for years before smartphones. Centralising that service and charging fees to both the buyer and the seller can be profitable.
    The problem is that over the years there has been a squeeze on prices, based on loss leading from Deliveroo etc.

    A number of sectors have been mucked up like this. A local chap, who owns and runs a "flex" business centre (hire space by the day, one person companies etc etc) says that his biggest problem is that people think that WeWork prices are the proper price....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    malcolmg said:

    dixiedean said:

    FTSE down 2.4% and falling.

    Been a desperate year for investments
    Not good for pension pots
    Yes, mine has dropped about 2-years' income worth already. It makes me wonder what we pay fund managers for if not to forecast and react to market conditions. Making the right connections at Oxbridge, I expect.
    It is a bit brutal for equity investors. My overseas portfolio is down 15% over 6 months, my domestic portfolio about 10%. Both better than the markets, but losing money less quickly isn't much solace.

    I am holding for the long term.
    My worry for a long time has been all these tech "unicorns". So much money has been piled into all these companies who never make any money with the promise that once they burned through billions that eventually they will dominant the market and make money.

    A classic example, all the delivery apps, none of them made any sodding money even during the pandemic when we were all locked in our homes!

    The tide is going out and there is going to be a more naked swimmers than your typical nudist beach.
    I have never understood delivery apps - exactly how many people will pay the actual cost of someone waiting round to delivery that burger and fries to you from 2 miles away.

    A few disabled or drunk people in cities, that’s it.

    The whole business model makes no sense at all, unless the business model is to eat through VC cash as fast as possible, shovelling it to the people who work there.
    Takeaways have done deliveries for years before smartphones. Centralising that service and charging fees to both the buyer and the seller can be profitable.
    It doesn’t scale without huge marketing, that’s the problem.

    Your local curry house can deliver because you know them already, it costs them a couple of quid to send one guy out with your £20 or £30 of product, no infrastructure required other than a phone line and a driver.

    Paying someone to walk around a supermarket to pick up a can of Coke and a bag of crisps, on the other hand, can never be profitable if you’re paying that person minimum wage. It can be profitable if they’re doing £100 of shopping for you though.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    ...
    IshmaelZ said:



    Another day, another cathedral

    Beautiful!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Another day, another record breaking recalibration of the “government-is-rubbish-o-meter”.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Presumably the Bank of England financial models suggest that inflation is only transitory. So as interest rate increases only has an impact on inflation in around 2 years time and that inflation then is back to "normal" it is not worth increasing rates now? The problem is whether the model is correct and whether the risk is on the upside or downside.

    34. In the MPC’s central projections in the May Monetary Policy Report, UK GDP growth had been expected to slow sharply over the first half of the forecast period and, although the labour market had been expected to tighten slightly further in the near term, the unemployment rate had been projected to rise to 5½% in three years’ time. CPI inflation had been expected to average slightly over 10% at its peak in 2022 Q4. Conditioned on the rising market-implied path for Bank Rate at that time and the MPC’s forecasting convention for future energy prices, CPI inflation had been projected to fall to a little above the 2% target in two years’ time, largely reflecting the waning influence of external factors, and to be well below the target in three years, mainly reflecting weaker domestic pressures. The risks to the inflation projection had been judged to be skewed to the upside at these points.

    https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2022/june-2022
    6-3 for 0.25% with 3 voting for 0.5%. That's very likely to be the BoE forming the bulk of the majority and the outsiders wanting more radical action.

    As inflation bounds ahead the real rate of interest, of course, becomes more and more radically negative. An increase of 0.25% and then a delay of 2 months means that our monetary policy is in fact becoming even looser at a time of very high and increasing inflation. The hope is that these external factors are transitory but in the meantime we will see wages, food prices and pretty much everything else going up. To be blunt, I really cannot follow the logic of the majority.
    What on Earth do they do, when the Fed adds 75bps more to the US$ base rate next month?

    At some point reality will hit them on the arse, and we’ll end up seeing 150bps in one go. That will wake everyone up.
    They are putting a lot of pressure on Sterling. Of course, given the extent of our ongoing trade deficit with the EU there may be some upside to that but its a bloody weird way to bring down inflation.
This discussion has been closed.