Note the letter was withheld until after the ethics debate. More taking the piss.
The delay before publishing the letters reminded me of the classic conscience scene from Yes, Prime Minister. "He accepted the fact..." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNKjShmHw7s
So what's with the Geidt letter? Did Boris intend to rip up the NI Protocol so that the contract to administer the 'two lane' mechanism would go to a Tory donor?
I agree. But if they keep being feeble each and every 6 weeks they'll get there.
No because we're too far behind the Fed, so all of the 0.25% rises take us even further back compared to the 0.5% and 0.75% rises coming from the US. That will further weaken sterling and increase inflationary pressures. This was an opportunity to claw back some credibility and follow the US rise with our own similar one and send sterling upwards to relieve pressure on import prices. The Bank has fucked it and given us a rate rise that will cause more inflation.
Sorry, I was being slightly facetious. My feeling is we're bound to crash as the artificial prop of oodles of free printed money is withdrawn, it's just a matter of how severe and in what manifestation. The worst outcome imo is hyper inflation so I'd rather the Bank erred on the hawkish side with rates. As it is they're thus far doing the opposite.
A gentle warning to anyone tempted to impeach the unimpeachable integrity of the noble lord...
(Wikipedia) ...In 1987, Geidt joined the staff of the Royal United Services Institute for Defence Studies, becoming an Assistant Director.[15] From 1994 he worked for the Foreign and Commonwealth Office in diplomatic posts in Sarajevo, Geneva and Brussels.[11]
In 1991, Geidt and Anthony de Normann sued the journalist John Pilger and Central Television over the documentary Cambodia: The Betrayal, in which they were accused of being members of the SAS secretly engaged in the training of the Khmer Rouge of Cambodia. Geidt and de Normann accepted "very substantial" damages and all costs.[16] In a related libel action Ann Clwyd MP, then shadow minister for overseas development, issued a public apology to Geidt and de Normann and agreed to meet all legal costs.[17]...
The BoE started tightening first but this decision puts us well behind the US.
Bailey is the problem. Three MPC members voted for 0.5% hikes the last two meetings but Bailey always voted against. As the Chair I presume his view sways those on the fence, and so with someone else in charge we'd be in a different place.
Yes, mine has dropped about 2-years' income worth already. It makes me wonder what we pay fund managers for if not to forecast and react to market conditions. Making the right connections at Oxbridge, I expect.
It's literally the worst of all worlds, borrowing costs will still rise and inflation will still rise. They'd have been better off doing nothing. We needed a 0.5% rise and £100bn reduction in the QE stockpile or a 0.75% rise.
We'll now get reams of compliant media articles repeating verbatim the excuses from the BoE about how this inflation is transitory (it isn't) and external (only to a certain extent) and not their fault (it is).
No one out there is asking the hard questions of the governor.
Is a tanking of the pound a real possibility? I mean. I know it is at 10 year lows, but a proper run?
What's to stop it? We have a trade deficit and a current account deficit. It's only inflows of foreign money that support the current value.
If Sterling looks weak and not much like a safe haven then a fall in the value of Sterling could be brutal. Could be bad enough that some Scots will decide they may as well chance their arm with their own currency (despite the popular saying, things can always get worse).
The pound is already cheap but a lot of emerging economies have tried these sorts of policies and found they can get a lot cheaper still.
Animal welfare (certainly in the sense of government doing something) is never discussed in any social group I go out with - cost of living, brexit, housing, johnsons parties are but not animal welfare
It comes up occasionally and unprompted among my A-level students when discussing politics. Certainly more than house prices, interest rates or any of that chutney. The only other political topic that gets as much interest is climate change.
DA, your man on the spot with multi-lingual teenage focus groups.
A gentle warning to anyone tempted to impeach the unimpeachable integrity of the noble lord...
(Wikipedia) ...In 1987, Geidt joined the staff of the Royal United Services Institute for Defence Studies, becoming an Assistant Director.[15] From 1994 he worked for the Foreign and Commonwealth Office in diplomatic posts in Sarajevo, Geneva and Brussels.[11]
In 1991, Geidt and Anthony de Normann sued the journalist John Pilger and Central Television over the documentary Cambodia: The Betrayal, in which they were accused of being members of the SAS secretly engaged in the training of the Khmer Rouge of Cambodia. Geidt and de Normann accepted "very substantial" damages and all costs.[16] In a related libel action Ann Clwyd MP, then shadow minister for overseas development, issued a public apology to Geidt and de Normann and agreed to meet all legal costs.[17]...
The Pilger thing was a very interesting tale - a politically motivated smear, to try and stop the West reinforcing the non-Khmer Rouge resistance to the Vietnamese occupation of Cambodia.
Point made here is that whichever Cabinet minister ends Boris Johnson's career will actually be empowered. 148 MPs are against him & Mishal Husain touched a nerve with Raab this morn when she said the govt doesn't have the authority to put the Rwanda policy before parliament https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1537353037676675073
An under-appreciated point. Those fulminating about the courts frustrating democracy haven't talked much about Patel having forced the Rwanda policy through without either Parliamentary approval or proper scrutiny.
It's not like our courts are not subordinate to parliament. Do it properly and you can make any number of unpleasant things perfectly legal. Incompatibility wouldn't even stop it.
A gentle warning to anyone tempted to impeach the unimpeachable integrity of the noble lord...
(Wikipedia) ...In 1987, Geidt joined the staff of the Royal United Services Institute for Defence Studies, becoming an Assistant Director.[15] From 1994 he worked for the Foreign and Commonwealth Office in diplomatic posts in Sarajevo, Geneva and Brussels.[11]
In 1991, Geidt and Anthony de Normann sued the journalist John Pilger and Central Television over the documentary Cambodia: The Betrayal, in which they were accused of being members of the SAS secretly engaged in the training of the Khmer Rouge of Cambodia. Geidt and de Normann accepted "very substantial" damages and all costs.[16] In a related libel action Ann Clwyd MP, then shadow minister for overseas development, issued a public apology to Geidt and de Normann and agreed to meet all legal costs.[17]...
Golly
I imagine the SAS part is verifiable and true. So two good reasons to say nice stuff about him
With the leaders of Germany, France and Italy in Kyiv for talks, the big question of the day has to be:
Will Macron, Scholz and Draghi put their energy supplies ahead of European security, European unity and peace?
Will they give in to evil for very short-term gains?
Yes and yes is my betting on the answer. (Maybe not quite true - I think Macron is probably the most supportive of Ukraine of the three but it isn't much support - Germany and Italy both wanted a quick Russian win, and failing that, a slower Russian win.... and failing that, a Russian win eventually!).
Headline: Scotland to Europe ferry link 'to return in 2023'
Body: 'A statement of intent released by DFDS and Ptarmigan Shipping reads: “Ptarmigan Shipping and DFDS have signed an agreement with the intention to further investigate the possibility for a new ferry route between Rosyth and Zeebrugge"... SNP MP Douglas Chapman... [said] "I am hugely excited by this announcement of further investigating the possibility to start a direct freight service between Rosyth and Zeebrugge in 2023"'
If Dougie is hugely excited by an agreement to investigate the possibility of doing something, Dunfermline and West Fife must be duller than I'd anticipated.
Swiss central bank surprisingly raises interest rates by 50 basis points.
25pbs from the BoE is going to look like it’s not enough.
Black Wednesday in miniature.
It won’t be that bad, but central banks do seem all rather surprised that the massive amounts of money-printing that went on during the pandemic, have led to inflation down the line.
The next few years are going to be a long ride.
Who knew that keeping interest rates at stupidly low crisis levels for 13 years whilst printing money like they were playing monopoly could be problematic?
Yes, mine has dropped about 2-years' income worth already. It makes me wonder what we pay fund managers for if not to forecast and react to market conditions. Making the right connections at Oxbridge, I expect.
Sack them. Cash out. Put the lot in vwrl when it falls a bit further.
I have zero understanding of BoE interest rates. I presume I am the norm not the exception.
For every 25 basis points, or 0.25% the rate rises, the repayment on a £100k mortgage goes up by £25 per month.
The higher the interest rate, the more valuable the currency, so if our interest rate is lower than the American interest rate, people sell pounds and buy dollars, which makes imports priced in dollars (like oil) more expensive, which adds to inflation.
The BoE started tightening first but this decision puts us well behind the US.
Bailey is the problem. Three MPC members voted for 0.5% hikes the last two meetings but Bailey always voted against. As the Chair I presume his view sways those on the fence, and so with someone else in charge we'd be in a different place.
Were I sat on the committee I would be resigning today. This mess was created in November when they skipped the increase then and exacerbated today by not reacting to the Fed’s larger (than expected last week) 0.75% increase.
Headline: Scotland to Europe ferry link 'to return in 2023'
Body: 'A statement of intent released by DFDS and Ptarmigan Shipping reads: “Ptarmigan Shipping and DFDS have signed an agreement with the intention to further investigate the possibility for a new ferry route between Rosyth and Zeebrugge"... SNP MP Douglas Chapman... [said] "I am hugely excited by this announcement of further investigating the possibility to start a direct freight service between Rosyth and Zeebrugge in 2023"'
If Dougie is hugely excited by an agreement to investigate the possibility of doing something, Dunfermline and West Fife must be duller than I'd anticipated.
I remember last year when we were assured inflation was just transitory. 11% is eye watering and the BoE have yet again bottled taking the tough decision for pain now, rather opting for worse pain down the line (and hoping Ukraine war ends and other things just turn up).
I would like to see the PB Tory view is of the "Blue Wall". The remain seats with 30%+ graduates that the LDs have been working on.
Also there are few signs that the Tories can hold their red wall seats.
In Surrey alone, the Tories can kiss goodbye to Esher and Walton, Guildford, Woking and possibly Mole Valley. Jeremy Hunt will likely migrate to the new safer seat (assuming boundary changes happen), so should be OK) but the remaining SW Surrey constituency could well fall.
Definite losses are 3 and possibles 2
Ironic that at the next general election most of Surrey, much of Buckinghamshire, Kensington and Westminster will be marginal seats whereas in 1997 they were the safest Tory seats still left.
In 1997 though Kent and Essex for example had many marginal seats which went Labour but almost all seats there are safe Conservative now
While I agree it looks like that, why did Conservative Central Office get their knickers in a twist when it was suggested that the Maldon seat might become a site for a by-election?
Furthermore the ghost of Lord Tony Newton says hi.
Any government held seat is vulnerable in a by election.
Braintree was Labour in 1997 but has a 24,673 Conservative majority now, even bigger than the 17,494 Conservative majority in 1992.
So that does not really dispute what I said
I'm not really 'disputing'; I'm pointing out that big shifts do happen. And Braintree is a significantly different seat now from 1992 or 1997.
It isn't demographically that much different.
It is more the fact that the upper middle class are voting increasingly more for liberal parties, while the core vote for conservatives is now the skilled working class.
A trend across the western world
A somewhat personal question, if I may, young HY. Do you consider yourself upper middle class or skilled working class? Just wondering about the future, you see, and looking for signs.
Middle class, bits of upper middle class and bits of lower middle class
Headline: Scotland to Europe ferry link 'to return in 2023'
Body: 'A statement of intent released by DFDS and Ptarmigan Shipping reads: “Ptarmigan Shipping and DFDS have signed an agreement with the intention to further investigate the possibility for a new ferry route between Rosyth and Zeebrugge"... SNP MP Douglas Chapman... [said] "I am hugely excited by this announcement of further investigating the possibility to start a direct freight service between Rosyth and Zeebrugge in 2023"'
If Dougie is hugely excited by an agreement to investigate the possibility of doing something, Dunfermline and West Fife must be duller than I'd anticipated.
So “to return” actually means “to agree to intend to investigate a possibility”.
Mr. Urquhart, aye. It's like a man refusing to move because he thinks a car won't hit him, now lying trapped under said car and still refusing to acknowledge it 'really' hit him.
Yes, mine has dropped about 2-years' income worth already. It makes me wonder what we pay fund managers for if not to forecast and react to market conditions. Making the right connections at Oxbridge, I expect.
For what it's worth, the BoE statement has been interpreted as being hawkish and markets are now pricing in 0.5% hikes for each of the next three meetings to end the year above 3%.
Swiss central bank surprisingly raises interest rates by 50 basis points.
25pbs from the BoE is going to look like it’s not enough.
Black Wednesday in miniature.
It won’t be that bad, but central banks do seem all rather surprised that the massive amounts of money-printing that went on during the pandemic, have led to inflation down the line.
The next few years are going to be a long ride.
Who knew that keeping interest rates at stupidly low crisis levels for 13 years whilst printing money like they were playing monopoly could be problematic?
Looked at this way - we've been propped up artificially for 15 years and can do it no longer - a big crash is inevitable quite soon.
This is why I don't buy the @MarqueeMark analysis that a change of Conservative Prime Minister achieves a Conservative landslide.
I accept that a honeymoon follows a change of leader, but I can't see it overturning what looks like the worst economic picture since the 1970s.
Presumably the Bank of England financial models suggest that inflation is only transitory. So as interest rate increases only has an impact on inflation in around 2 years time and that inflation then is back to "normal" it is not worth increasing rates now? The problem is whether the model is correct and whether the risk is on the upside or downside.
I remember last year when we were assured inflation was just transitory. 11% is eye watering and the BoE have yet again bottled taking the tough decision for pain now, rather opting for worse pain down the line (and hoping Ukraine war ends and other things just turn up).
It failed to become transitory when Russia invaded Ukraine, and China shut down half the country for Covid again. There’s at least a couple of years of inflation to come from here.
The chair of the Fed was correct, that he sees 3.4% as a reasonable base rate target this year.
I remember last year when we were assured inflation was just transitory. 11% is eye watering and the BoE have yet again bottled taking the tough decision for pain now, rather opting for worse pain down the line (and hoping Ukraine war ends and other things just turn up).
A not insignificant proportion of us cannot survive 11% intact.
I remember last year when we were assured inflation was just transitory. 11% is eye watering and the BoE have yet again bottled taking the tough decision for pain now, rather opting for worse pain down the line (and hoping Ukraine war ends and other things just turn up).
It failed to become transitory when Russia invaded Ukraine, and China shut down half the country for Covid again. There’s at least a couple of years of inflation to come from here.
The chair of the Fed was correct, that he sees 3.4% as a reasonable base rate target this year.
It was never transitory. The war in Ukraine is just an excuse.
25% of the money in existence was printed after 2020.
Everywhere and always inflation is a monetary phenomenon.
Swiss central bank surprisingly raises interest rates by 50 basis points.
25pbs from the BoE is going to look like it’s not enough.
Black Wednesday in miniature.
It won’t be that bad, but central banks do seem all rather surprised that the massive amounts of money-printing that went on during the pandemic, have led to inflation down the line.
The next few years are going to be a long ride.
Who knew that keeping interest rates at stupidly low crisis levels for 13 years whilst printing money like they were playing monopoly could be problematic?
Looked at this way - we've been propped up artificially for 15 years and can do it no longer - a big crash is inevitable quite soon.
This is why I don't buy the @MarqueeMark analysis that a change of Conservative Prime Minister achieves a Conservative landslide.
I accept that a honeymoon follows a change of leader, but I can't see it overturning what looks like the worst economic picture since the 1970s.
Fear of Labournomics, cling to nurse effect. Not saying they will happen but they are factors to consider. As is some artificial display of being less in shit than the EU etc
Swiss central bank surprisingly raises interest rates by 50 basis points.
25pbs from the BoE is going to look like it’s not enough.
Black Wednesday in miniature.
It won’t be that bad, but central banks do seem all rather surprised that the massive amounts of money-printing that went on during the pandemic, have led to inflation down the line.
The next few years are going to be a long ride.
Who knew that keeping interest rates at stupidly low crisis levels for 13 years whilst printing money like they were playing monopoly could be problematic?
Looked at this way - we've been propped up artificially for 15 years and can do it no longer - a big crash is inevitable quite soon.
This is why I don't buy the @MarqueeMark analysis that a change of Conservative Prime Minister achieves a Conservative landslide.
I accept that a honeymoon follows a change of leader, but I can't see it overturning what looks like the worst economic picture since the 1970s.
The change of leader needs to be accompanied by a change of policy, towards a smaller state levying lower and simpler taxes.
Presumably the Bank of England financial models suggest that inflation is only transitory. So as interest rate increases only has an impact on inflation in around 2 years time and that inflation then is back to "normal" it is not worth increasing rates now? The problem is whether the model is correct and whether the risk is on the upside or downside.
34. In the MPC’s central projections in the May Monetary Policy Report, UK GDP growth had been expected to slow sharply over the first half of the forecast period and, although the labour market had been expected to tighten slightly further in the near term, the unemployment rate had been projected to rise to 5½% in three years’ time. CPI inflation had been expected to average slightly over 10% at its peak in 2022 Q4. Conditioned on the rising market-implied path for Bank Rate at that time and the MPC’s forecasting convention for future energy prices, CPI inflation had been projected to fall to a little above the 2% target in two years’ time, largely reflecting the waning influence of external factors, and to be well below the target in three years, mainly reflecting weaker domestic pressures. The risks to the inflation projection had been judged to be skewed to the upside at these points.
I remember last year when we were assured inflation was just transitory. 11% is eye watering and the BoE have yet again bottled taking the tough decision for pain now, rather opting for worse pain down the line (and hoping Ukraine war ends and other things just turn up).
It failed to become transitory when Russia invaded Ukraine, and China shut down half the country for Covid again. There’s at least a couple of years of inflation to come from here.
The chair of the Fed was correct, that he sees 3.4% as a reasonable base rate target this year.
The thing is 3% interest rates by historic standards are on the low end of "normal". The problem is past 15 years (and for a lot of people the whole time they have had a mortgage) have never experienced such rates and planned their finances based upon this abnormally low rates (which in turn has jacked up house prices as everybody thinks they can afford more than they can if rates ever return to normal levels).
Presumably the Bank of England financial models suggest that inflation is only transitory. So as interest rate increases only has an impact on inflation in around 2 years time and that inflation then is back to "normal" it is not worth increasing rates now? The problem is whether the model is correct and whether the risk is on the upside or downside.
Hard to see it being short term given all the signs
Yes, mine has dropped about 2-years' income worth already. It makes me wonder what we pay fund managers for if not to forecast and react to market conditions. Making the right connections at Oxbridge, I expect.
It is a bit brutal for equity investors. My overseas portfolio is down 15% over 6 months, my domestic portfolio about 10%. Both better than the markets, but losing money less quickly isn't much solace.
The Downing Street response implies that the request was simply over a conflict of domestic law and international obligations. However, that's a legal matter rather than an ethical one, and Geidt's implication is that it related to an intentional breach of the Ministerial Code.
This leaves major questions open. What was the proposal? Which parts of the Code were engaged? This story has some way to run.
That Geidt stayed put over Partygate but went over this rather mysterious matter is rather telling. It sounds like dynamite.
Unless Geidt gets explicit it wont be dynamite sadly. We've seen the gov pushback that hes talking nonsense basically.
After Geidt had put up with his crap for so long, it must have come out of the blue that he'd decided it was all just too much.
Even a masochist can find their limit.
Though the effect of his resignation has been somewhat blunted by what he has put up with and remained in post. And Johnson has a defence, however threadbare, to the steel tariffs thing - "national interest".
I am not impressed at all by Geidt, though he has finally done the right thing.
Swiss central bank surprisingly raises interest rates by 50 basis points.
25pbs from the BoE is going to look like it’s not enough.
Black Wednesday in miniature.
It won’t be that bad, but central banks do seem all rather surprised that the massive amounts of money-printing that went on during the pandemic, have led to inflation down the line.
The next few years are going to be a long ride.
Who knew that keeping interest rates at stupidly low crisis levels for 13 years whilst printing money like they were playing monopoly could be problematic?
Looked at this way - we've been propped up artificially for 15 years and can do it no longer - a big crash is inevitable quite soon.
This is why I don't buy the @MarqueeMark analysis that a change of Conservative Prime Minister achieves a Conservative landslide.
I accept that a honeymoon follows a change of leader, but I can't see it overturning what looks like the worst economic picture since the 1970s.
The change of leader needs to be accompanied by a change of policy, towards a smaller state levying lower and simpler taxes.
Yet your typical Tory vote is retired or approaching retirement and wants their sweeties / freebies.
Animal welfare (certainly in the sense of government doing something) is never discussed in any social group I go out with - cost of living, brexit, housing, johnsons parties are but not animal welfare
It comes up occasionally and unprompted among my A-level students when discussing politics. Certainly more than house prices, interest rates or any of that chutney. The only other political topic that gets as much interest is climate change.
DA, your man on the spot with multi-lingual teenage focus groups.
...but they are all lefty liberal intellectuals who want to speak in tongues of the Devil. If they were young, wannabe PB Conservatives they would be telling you all about how unfair the ECHR is to Little Englanders.
Yes, mine has dropped about 2-years' income worth already. It makes me wonder what we pay fund managers for if not to forecast and react to market conditions. Making the right connections at Oxbridge, I expect.
It is a bit brutal for equity investors. My overseas portfolio is down 15% over 6 months, my domestic portfolio about 10%. Both better than the markets, but losing money less quickly isn't much solace.
I am holding for the long term.
My worry for a long time has been all these tech "unicorns". So much money has been piled into all these companies who never make any money with the promise that once they burned through billions that eventually they will dominant the market and make money.
A classic example, all the delivery apps, none of them made any sodding money even during the pandemic when we were all locked in our homes!
The tide is going out and there is going to be a more naked swimmers than your typical nudist beach.
Swiss central bank surprisingly raises interest rates by 50 basis points.
25pbs from the BoE is going to look like it’s not enough.
Black Wednesday in miniature.
It won’t be that bad, but central banks do seem all rather surprised that the massive amounts of money-printing that went on during the pandemic, have led to inflation down the line.
The next few years are going to be a long ride.
Who knew that keeping interest rates at stupidly low crisis levels for 13 years whilst printing money like they were playing monopoly could be problematic?
Looked at this way - we've been propped up artificially for 15 years and can do it no longer - a big crash is inevitable quite soon.
This is why I don't buy the @MarqueeMark analysis that a change of Conservative Prime Minister achieves a Conservative landslide.
I accept that a honeymoon follows a change of leader, but I can't see it overturning what looks like the worst economic picture since the 1970s.
Morduant is also a blank slate to paint "the new Maggie" on, so does tend to get the juices flowing for PB Tories of a certain age. How she copes with the real world is yet to be seen.
I am strongly green on her for next Leader, but think Johnson will cling on until the next GE.
I remember last year when we were assured inflation was just transitory. 11% is eye watering and the BoE have yet again bottled taking the tough decision for pain now, rather opting for worse pain down the line (and hoping Ukraine war ends and other things just turn up).
It failed to become transitory when Russia invaded Ukraine, and China shut down half the country for Covid again. There’s at least a couple of years of inflation to come from here.
The chair of the Fed was correct, that he sees 3.4% as a reasonable base rate target this year.
The thing is 3% interest rates by historic standards are on the low end of "normal". The problem is past 15 years (and for a lot of people the whole time they have had a mortgage) have never experienced such rates and planned their finances based upon this abnormally low rates (which in turn has jacked up house prices as everybody thinks they can afford more than they can if rates ever return to normal levels).
Yup. Anyone younger than 35 has never experienced interest rates above 1% as an adult.
The 50-year graph shows what an anomaly the last few years has been.
I remember last year when we were assured inflation was just transitory. 11% is eye watering and the BoE have yet again bottled taking the tough decision for pain now, rather opting for worse pain down the line (and hoping Ukraine war ends and other things just turn up).
A not insignificant proportion of us cannot survive 11% intact.
I remember last year when we were assured inflation was just transitory. 11% is eye watering and the BoE have yet again bottled taking the tough decision for pain now, rather opting for worse pain down the line (and hoping Ukraine war ends and other things just turn up).
It failed to become transitory when Russia invaded Ukraine, and China shut down half the country for Covid again. There’s at least a couple of years of inflation to come from here.
The chair of the Fed was correct, that he sees 3.4% as a reasonable base rate target this year.
The thing is 3% interest rates by historic standards are on the low end of "normal". The problem is past 15 years (and for a lot of people the whole time they have had a mortgage) have never experienced such rates and planned their finances based upon this abnormally low rates (which in turn has jacked up house prices as everybody thinks they can afford more than they can if rates ever return to normal levels).
Yes. The government will be enacting emergency legislation to prevent mass repossessions within 2 years. Central bankers and politicians backing them need to be held to account for the ludicrous suppression of interest rates and frankly disgraceful QE programmes that have screwed us utterly. Rotten establishment from top to bottom.
I used it a couple of times when my daughter was studying in Holland. It was a superb way to get to Europe with your car, free to go where you want. It would be great to see it back but my understanding is that it never made a profit before.
Yes, mine has dropped about 2-years' income worth already. It makes me wonder what we pay fund managers for if not to forecast and react to market conditions. Making the right connections at Oxbridge, I expect.
It is a bit brutal for equity investors. My overseas portfolio is down 15% over 6 months, my domestic portfolio about 10%. Both better than the markets, but losing money less quickly isn't much solace.
I am holding for the long term.
My worry for a long time has been all these tech "unicorns". So much money has been piled into all these companies who never make any money with the promise that once they burned through billions that eventually they will dominant the market and make money.
A classic example, all the delivery apps, none of them made any sodding money even during the pandemic when we were all locked in our homes!
The tide is going out and there is going to be a more naked swimmers than your typical nudist beach.
I mostly do "Value Investing" and don't touch companies where I cannot see how they make a profit, or by what means. I have missed a few good buys that way.
I used it a couple of times when my daughter was studying in Holland. It was a superb way to get to Europe with your car, free to go where you want. It would be great to see it back but my understanding is that it never made a profit before.
David, perhaps the £250m spent on two rusting hulks could have been wiser spent, or some of the other debacles even.
After Geidt had put up with his crap for so long, it must have come out of the blue that he'd decided it was all just too much.
Even a masochist can find their limit.
Though the effect of his resignation has been somewhat blunted by what he has put up with and remained in post. And Johnson has a defence, however threadbare, to the steel tariffs thing - "national interest".
I am not impressed at all by Geidt, though he has finally done the right thing.
Agreed. What he put up with, accepted as explanations, makes him look like a chump. Reticence to get into detail now just undermines his attempt to explain why this was the line.
Yes, mine has dropped about 2-years' income worth already. It makes me wonder what we pay fund managers for if not to forecast and react to market conditions. Making the right connections at Oxbridge, I expect.
It is a bit brutal for equity investors. My overseas portfolio is down 15% over 6 months, my domestic portfolio about 10%. Both better than the markets, but losing money less quickly isn't much solace.
I am holding for the long term.
My worry for a long time has been all these tech "unicorns". So much money has been piled into all these companies who never make any money with the promise that once they burned through billions that eventually they will dominant the market and make money.
A classic example, all the delivery apps, none of them made any sodding money even during the pandemic when we were all locked in our homes!
The tide is going out and there is going to be a more naked swimmers than your typical nudist beach.
I have never understood delivery apps - exactly how many people will pay the actual cost of someone waiting round to delivery that burger and fries to you from 2 miles away.
Swiss central bank surprisingly raises interest rates by 50 basis points.
25pbs from the BoE is going to look like it’s not enough.
Black Wednesday in miniature.
It won’t be that bad, but central banks do seem all rather surprised that the massive amounts of money-printing that went on during the pandemic, have led to inflation down the line.
The next few years are going to be a long ride.
Who knew that keeping interest rates at stupidly low crisis levels for 13 years whilst printing money like they were playing monopoly could be problematic?
Looked at this way - we've been propped up artificially for 15 years and can do it no longer - a big crash is inevitable quite soon.
This is why I don't buy the @MarqueeMark analysis that a change of Conservative Prime Minister achieves a Conservative landslide.
I accept that a honeymoon follows a change of leader, but I can't see it overturning what looks like the worst economic picture since the 1970s.
Fear of Labournomics, cling to nurse effect. Not saying they will happen but they are factors to consider. As is some artificial display of being less in shit than the EU etc
...but aren't we forecast to be the worst performing G7 nation in the foreseeable future.
It may be naïve, but I don't suppose voters could care less about what is going on in France and Germany if they are unable to put food on the table or fuel in the tank in the UK. Incumbency means taking the rough with the smooth.
I used it a couple of times when my daughter was studying in Holland. It was a superb way to get to Europe with your car, free to go where you want. It would be great to see it back but my understanding is that it never made a profit before.
Also it should be a top government priority to have direct routes to Europe.
The BoE started tightening first but this decision puts us well behind the US.
Bailey is the problem. Three MPC members voted for 0.5% hikes the last two meetings but Bailey always voted against. As the Chair I presume his view sways those on the fence, and so with someone else in charge we'd be in a different place.
I didn’t realise at the time that Andrew Bailey’s attempts to destroy the financial services profession was him practicing to destroy the wider economy. Does he has shares in property companies?
Yes, mine has dropped about 2-years' income worth already. It makes me wonder what we pay fund managers for if not to forecast and react to market conditions. Making the right connections at Oxbridge, I expect.
It is a bit brutal for equity investors. My overseas portfolio is down 15% over 6 months, my domestic portfolio about 10%. Both better than the markets, but losing money less quickly isn't much solace.
I am holding for the long term.
My worry for a long time has been all these tech "unicorns". So much money has been piled into all these companies who never make any money with the promise that once they burned through billions that eventually they will dominant the market and make money.
A classic example, all the delivery apps, none of them made any sodding money even during the pandemic when we were all locked in our homes!
The tide is going out and there is going to be a more naked swimmers than your typical nudist beach.
I mostly do "Value Investing" and don't touch companies where I cannot see how they make a profit, or by what means. I have missed a few good buys that way.
My concern is that if we see another repeat of the dot com bust that it causes contagion throughout. So much money has been thrown at seemingly any company who mentions machine learning or AI and that they have an "app" that leverages it (insert any old crap e.g. renting office space), with seemingly no route to profitability.
Currently looking at my 195th birthday to take my pensions
Die at your desk like a real man/woman, that's my plan.
Not currently working. Quicker i can take my pensions, quicker i get off the state teat
Timing is everything though, you certainly would not live the high life on state pension only. £740 a month.
Oh definitely not. Ive got 3 final salary schemes and a defined contribution scheme to take. My aim is for them to replace my benefits if i remain unable to work and then when 67 the State pension tops it all off. Firtunately when i was hale and hearty i had good income and good pension schemes. Things are not currently easy. Id be screwed if i had a family to look after.
I used it a couple of times when my daughter was studying in Holland. It was a superb way to get to Europe with your car, free to go where you want. It would be great to see it back but my understanding is that it never made a profit before.
David, perhaps the £250m spent on two rusting hulks could have been wiser spent, or some of the other debacles even.
I am pretty sure that whoever sets it up (and I hope they do) will not be asking advice from the SG about where to get a ferry, that's for sure.
Yes, mine has dropped about 2-years' income worth already. It makes me wonder what we pay fund managers for if not to forecast and react to market conditions. Making the right connections at Oxbridge, I expect.
It is a bit brutal for equity investors. My overseas portfolio is down 15% over 6 months, my domestic portfolio about 10%. Both better than the markets, but losing money less quickly isn't much solace.
I am holding for the long term.
My worry for a long time has been all these tech "unicorns". So much money has been piled into all these companies who never make any money with the promise that once they burned through billions that eventually they will dominant the market and make money.
A classic example, all the delivery apps, none of them made any sodding money even during the pandemic when we were all locked in our homes!
The tide is going out and there is going to be a more naked swimmers than your typical nudist beach.
I have never understood delivery apps - exactly how many people will pay the actual cost of someone waiting round to delivery that burger and fries to you from 2 miles away.
A few disabled or drunk people in cities, that’s it.
The whole business model makes no sense at all, unless the business model is to eat through VC cash as fast as possible, shovelling it to the people who work there.
Currently looking at my 195th birthday to take my pensions
Die at your desk like a real man/woman, that's my plan.
Not currently working. Quicker i can take my pensions, quicker i get off the state teat
Timing is everything though, you certainly would not live the high life on state pension only. £740 a month.
Oh definitely not. Ive got 3 final salary schemes and a defined contribution scheme to take. My aim is for them to replace my benefits if i remain unable to work and then when 67 the State pension tops it all off. Firtunately when i was hale and hearty i had good income and good pension schemes. Things are not currently easy. Id be screwed if i had a family to look after.
Does the benefits agency insist you take private pensions as soon as possible, so as to reduce their bill?
Swiss central bank surprisingly raises interest rates by 50 basis points.
25pbs from the BoE is going to look like it’s not enough.
Black Wednesday in miniature.
It won’t be that bad, but central banks do seem all rather surprised that the massive amounts of money-printing that went on during the pandemic, have led to inflation down the line.
The next few years are going to be a long ride.
Who knew that keeping interest rates at stupidly low crisis levels for 13 years whilst printing money like they were playing monopoly could be problematic?
Looked at this way - we've been propped up artificially for 15 years and can do it no longer - a big crash is inevitable quite soon.
This is why I don't buy the @MarqueeMark analysis that a change of Conservative Prime Minister achieves a Conservative landslide.
I accept that a honeymoon follows a change of leader, but I can't see it overturning what looks like the worst economic picture since the 1970s.
Fear of Labournomics, cling to nurse effect. Not saying they will happen but they are factors to consider. As is some artificial display of being less in shit than the EU etc
...but aren't we forecast to be the worst performing G7 nation in the foreseeable future.
It may be naïve, but I don't suppose voters could care less about what is going on in France and Germany if they are unable to put food on the table or fuel in the tank in the UK. Incumbency means taking the rough with the smooth.
'It started in America' etc Blame game/scapegoating Playing up brexit - we would be worse if we'd stayed All strands that have been tried historically or might be played now. Its not a zero sum game, smoke and mirrors can still work in a recession, as can fear of the unknown. Not saying it will work or is moral but not convinced it won't/can't/is etc
Yes, mine has dropped about 2-years' income worth already. It makes me wonder what we pay fund managers for if not to forecast and react to market conditions. Making the right connections at Oxbridge, I expect.
It is a bit brutal for equity investors. My overseas portfolio is down 15% over 6 months, my domestic portfolio about 10%. Both better than the markets, but losing money less quickly isn't much solace.
I am holding for the long term.
My worry for a long time has been all these tech "unicorns". So much money has been piled into all these companies who never make any money with the promise that once they burned through billions that eventually they will dominant the market and make money.
A classic example, all the delivery apps, none of them made any sodding money even during the pandemic when we were all locked in our homes!
The tide is going out and there is going to be a more naked swimmers than your typical nudist beach.
I have never understood delivery apps - exactly how many people will pay the actual cost of someone waiting round to delivery that burger and fries to you from 2 miles away.
I never got that either. The delivery cost always seems so stupidly high I never use them, but then I see teenagers / students (who aren't supposed to have loads of spare cash) use them like you can't actually visit the outlet themselves.
My understanding is the key problem is that the barrier to entry is so low that the anybody can come into the market, thus as a result they have to spend stupid amounts of money on advertising and promotions to key those that deliver. And of course its bad news for the restaurants themselves as they get hit with a big chunk of that cost.
There has been consolidation in the space, but still are spending eye watering sums to keep customers and of course recession incoming, who is going to pay £3.50 delivery charge on a £5 takeaway when you are brassic.
Currently looking at my 195th birthday to take my pensions
Die at your desk like a real man/woman, that's my plan.
Not currently working. Quicker i can take my pensions, quicker i get off the state teat
Timing is everything though, you certainly would not live the high life on state pension only. £740 a month.
Oh definitely not. Ive got 3 final salary schemes and a defined contribution scheme to take. My aim is for them to replace my benefits if i remain unable to work and then when 67 the State pension tops it all off. Firtunately when i was hale and hearty i had good income and good pension schemes. Things are not currently easy. Id be screwed if i had a family to look after.
Good to hear. I cashed in my final salary scheme, now in the ppp scheme. Was doing very well indeed till start of this year but still good bit ahead, just need to keep an eye on it.
Presumably the Bank of England financial models suggest that inflation is only transitory. So as interest rate increases only has an impact on inflation in around 2 years time and that inflation then is back to "normal" it is not worth increasing rates now? The problem is whether the model is correct and whether the risk is on the upside or downside.
34. In the MPC’s central projections in the May Monetary Policy Report, UK GDP growth had been expected to slow sharply over the first half of the forecast period and, although the labour market had been expected to tighten slightly further in the near term, the unemployment rate had been projected to rise to 5½% in three years’ time. CPI inflation had been expected to average slightly over 10% at its peak in 2022 Q4. Conditioned on the rising market-implied path for Bank Rate at that time and the MPC’s forecasting convention for future energy prices, CPI inflation had been projected to fall to a little above the 2% target in two years’ time, largely reflecting the waning influence of external factors, and to be well below the target in three years, mainly reflecting weaker domestic pressures. The risks to the inflation projection had been judged to be skewed to the upside at these points.
6-3 for 0.25% with 3 voting for 0.5%. That's very likely to be the BoE forming the bulk of the majority and the outsiders wanting more radical action.
As inflation bounds ahead the real rate of interest, of course, becomes more and more radically negative. An increase of 0.25% and then a delay of 2 months means that our monetary policy is in fact becoming even looser at a time of very high and increasing inflation. The hope is that these external factors are transitory but in the meantime we will see wages, food prices and pretty much everything else going up. To be blunt, I really cannot follow the logic of the majority.
Currently looking at my 195th birthday to take my pensions
Die at your desk like a real man/woman, that's my plan.
Not currently working. Quicker i can take my pensions, quicker i get off the state teat
Timing is everything though, you certainly would not live the high life on state pension only. £740 a month.
Oh definitely not. Ive got 3 final salary schemes and a defined contribution scheme to take. My aim is for them to replace my benefits if i remain unable to work and then when 67 the State pension tops it all off. Firtunately when i was hale and hearty i had good income and good pension schemes. Things are not currently easy. Id be screwed if i had a family to look after.
Does the benefits agency insist you take private pensions as soon as possible, so as to reduce their bill?
The Conservatives will win more seats at the next General Election.
PM Mordaunt will get a 3-figure majority.
Anyone else remember the earliest days of pb, when Iain Dale would post about how he was going to beat Norman Lamb in North Norfolk, and that other Tory in Torbay was certain he was going to beat the LibDems? That's you, that is.
Yes, mine has dropped about 2-years' income worth already. It makes me wonder what we pay fund managers for if not to forecast and react to market conditions. Making the right connections at Oxbridge, I expect.
It is a bit brutal for equity investors. My overseas portfolio is down 15% over 6 months, my domestic portfolio about 10%. Both better than the markets, but losing money less quickly isn't much solace.
I am holding for the long term.
My worry for a long time has been all these tech "unicorns". So much money has been piled into all these companies who never make any money with the promise that once they burned through billions that eventually they will dominant the market and make money.
A classic example, all the delivery apps, none of them made any sodding money even during the pandemic when we were all locked in our homes!
The tide is going out and there is going to be a more naked swimmers than your typical nudist beach.
I have never understood delivery apps - exactly how many people will pay the actual cost of someone waiting round to delivery that burger and fries to you from 2 miles away.
When we were in York a couple of weeks ago, there were dozens of delivery men (always men...) packing up insulated cartons from the various food stores.
Presumably the Bank of England financial models suggest that inflation is only transitory. So as interest rate increases only has an impact on inflation in around 2 years time and that inflation then is back to "normal" it is not worth increasing rates now? The problem is whether the model is correct and whether the risk is on the upside or downside.
34. In the MPC’s central projections in the May Monetary Policy Report, UK GDP growth had been expected to slow sharply over the first half of the forecast period and, although the labour market had been expected to tighten slightly further in the near term, the unemployment rate had been projected to rise to 5½% in three years’ time. CPI inflation had been expected to average slightly over 10% at its peak in 2022 Q4. Conditioned on the rising market-implied path for Bank Rate at that time and the MPC’s forecasting convention for future energy prices, CPI inflation had been projected to fall to a little above the 2% target in two years’ time, largely reflecting the waning influence of external factors, and to be well below the target in three years, mainly reflecting weaker domestic pressures. The risks to the inflation projection had been judged to be skewed to the upside at these points.
6-3 for 0.25% with 3 voting for 0.5%. That's very likely to be the BoE forming the bulk of the majority and the outsiders wanting more radical action.
As inflation bounds ahead the real rate of interest, of course, becomes more and more radically negative. An increase of 0.25% and then a delay of 2 months means that our monetary policy is in fact becoming even looser at a time of very high and increasing inflation. The hope is that these external factors are transitory but in the meantime we will see wages, food prices and pretty much everything else going up. To be blunt, I really cannot follow the logic of the majority.
What on Earth do they do, when the Fed adds 75bps more to the US$ base rate next month?
At some point reality will hit them on the arse, and we’ll end up seeing 150bps in one go. That will wake everyone up.
A Whitehall source says the 'odious' decision referred to by Lord Geidt refers to proposed protections for the UK steel industry, adding: 'We're happy to be judged on that in the Red Wall'
Yes, mine has dropped about 2-years' income worth already. It makes me wonder what we pay fund managers for if not to forecast and react to market conditions. Making the right connections at Oxbridge, I expect.
It is a bit brutal for equity investors. My overseas portfolio is down 15% over 6 months, my domestic portfolio about 10%. Both better than the markets, but losing money less quickly isn't much solace.
I am holding for the long term.
My worry for a long time has been all these tech "unicorns". So much money has been piled into all these companies who never make any money with the promise that once they burned through billions that eventually they will dominant the market and make money.
A classic example, all the delivery apps, none of them made any sodding money even during the pandemic when we were all locked in our homes!
The tide is going out and there is going to be a more naked swimmers than your typical nudist beach.
I have never understood delivery apps - exactly how many people will pay the actual cost of someone waiting round to delivery that burger and fries to you from 2 miles away.
I would and do, I'll be sad if they cannot make them economically viable as not enough others would.
Yes, mine has dropped about 2-years' income worth already. It makes me wonder what we pay fund managers for if not to forecast and react to market conditions. Making the right connections at Oxbridge, I expect.
It is a bit brutal for equity investors. My overseas portfolio is down 15% over 6 months, my domestic portfolio about 10%. Both better than the markets, but losing money less quickly isn't much solace.
I am holding for the long term.
My worry for a long time has been all these tech "unicorns". So much money has been piled into all these companies who never make any money with the promise that once they burned through billions that eventually they will dominant the market and make money.
A classic example, all the delivery apps, none of them made any sodding money even during the pandemic when we were all locked in our homes!
The tide is going out and there is going to be a more naked swimmers than your typical nudist beach.
I have never understood delivery apps - exactly how many people will pay the actual cost of someone waiting round to delivery that burger and fries to you from 2 miles away.
A few disabled or drunk people in cities, that’s it.
The whole business model makes no sense at all, unless the business model is to eat through VC cash as fast as possible, shovelling it to the people who work there.
Takeaways have done deliveries for years before smartphones. Centralising that service and charging fees to both the buyer and the seller can be profitable.
Presumably the Bank of England financial models suggest that inflation is only transitory. So as interest rate increases only has an impact on inflation in around 2 years time and that inflation then is back to "normal" it is not worth increasing rates now? The problem is whether the model is correct and whether the risk is on the upside or downside.
34. In the MPC’s central projections in the May Monetary Policy Report, UK GDP growth had been expected to slow sharply over the first half of the forecast period and, although the labour market had been expected to tighten slightly further in the near term, the unemployment rate had been projected to rise to 5½% in three years’ time. CPI inflation had been expected to average slightly over 10% at its peak in 2022 Q4. Conditioned on the rising market-implied path for Bank Rate at that time and the MPC’s forecasting convention for future energy prices, CPI inflation had been projected to fall to a little above the 2% target in two years’ time, largely reflecting the waning influence of external factors, and to be well below the target in three years, mainly reflecting weaker domestic pressures. The risks to the inflation projection had been judged to be skewed to the upside at these points.
6-3 for 0.25% with 3 voting for 0.5%. That's very likely to be the BoE forming the bulk of the majority and the outsiders wanting more radical action.
As inflation bounds ahead the real rate of interest, of course, becomes more and more radically negative. An increase of 0.25% and then a delay of 2 months means that our monetary policy is in fact becoming even looser at a time of very high and increasing inflation. The hope is that these external factors are transitory but in the meantime we will see wages, food prices and pretty much everything else going up. To be blunt, I really cannot follow the logic of the majority.
What on Earth do they do, when the Fed adds 75bps more to the US$ base rate next month?
At some point reality will hit them on the arse, and we’ll end up seeing 150bps in one go. That will wake everyone up.
Here's the reality, decades of fellating home owners leads to this.
It is also why I think changing Tory leader won't have much impact
Yes, mine has dropped about 2-years' income worth already. It makes me wonder what we pay fund managers for if not to forecast and react to market conditions. Making the right connections at Oxbridge, I expect.
It is a bit brutal for equity investors. My overseas portfolio is down 15% over 6 months, my domestic portfolio about 10%. Both better than the markets, but losing money less quickly isn't much solace.
I am holding for the long term.
Hard thing is not selling. Was an option a week or two ago and I was tempted but did not do it, all 3 back down again.
Yes, mine has dropped about 2-years' income worth already. It makes me wonder what we pay fund managers for if not to forecast and react to market conditions. Making the right connections at Oxbridge, I expect.
It is a bit brutal for equity investors. My overseas portfolio is down 15% over 6 months, my domestic portfolio about 10%. Both better than the markets, but losing money less quickly isn't much solace.
I am holding for the long term.
My worry for a long time has been all these tech "unicorns". So much money has been piled into all these companies who never make any money with the promise that once they burned through billions that eventually they will dominant the market and make money.
A classic example, all the delivery apps, none of them made any sodding money even during the pandemic when we were all locked in our homes!
The tide is going out and there is going to be a more naked swimmers than your typical nudist beach.
I have never understood delivery apps - exactly how many people will pay the actual cost of someone waiting round to delivery that burger and fries to you from 2 miles away.
A few disabled or drunk people in cities, that’s it.
The whole business model makes no sense at all, unless the business model is to eat through VC cash as fast as possible, shovelling it to the people who work there.
Takeaways have done deliveries for years before smartphones. Centralising that service and charging fees to both the buyer and the seller can be profitable.
Only a minority have and normally only a small window during peak time in a restricted area. The likes of Uber Eats are offering basically 24/7 service for every type of food you can ever imagine, you want a McDonalds at 5am, no problem use the app, but that can't make money in the grand scheme of things.
Despite paying the drivers / riders crap wages and no benefits, charging restaurants crazy amount of commission and certainly not cheap for the end customer, yet after that they still lose money hand over fist.
Currently looking at my 195th birthday to take my pensions
Die at your desk like a real man/woman, that's my plan.
Not currently working. Quicker i can take my pensions, quicker i get off the state teat
Timing is everything though, you certainly would not live the high life on state pension only. £740 a month.
Oh definitely not. Ive got 3 final salary schemes and a defined contribution scheme to take. My aim is for them to replace my benefits if i remain unable to work and then when 67 the State pension tops it all off. Firtunately when i was hale and hearty i had good income and good pension schemes. Things are not currently easy. Id be screwed if i had a family to look after.
Good to hear. I cashed in my final salary scheme, now in the ppp scheme. Was doing very well indeed till start of this year but still good bit ahead, just need to keep an eye on it.
Yeah. Its a wait and see thing. I've moved everything back a year for now. Worst case i guess i'll cobble something together that will be liveable but not exactly extravagent. But then my hobby (chess) is inexpensive and i no longer drive so a couple trips to northern Scotland by train a year and a couple trips away to chess congresses and pay the bills and im good.
Yes, mine has dropped about 2-years' income worth already. It makes me wonder what we pay fund managers for if not to forecast and react to market conditions. Making the right connections at Oxbridge, I expect.
It is a bit brutal for equity investors. My overseas portfolio is down 15% over 6 months, my domestic portfolio about 10%. Both better than the markets, but losing money less quickly isn't much solace.
I am holding for the long term.
My worry for a long time has been all these tech "unicorns". So much money has been piled into all these companies who never make any money with the promise that once they burned through billions that eventually they will dominant the market and make money.
A classic example, all the delivery apps, none of them made any sodding money even during the pandemic when we were all locked in our homes!
The tide is going out and there is going to be a more naked swimmers than your typical nudist beach.
I have never understood delivery apps - exactly how many people will pay the actual cost of someone waiting round to delivery that burger and fries to you from 2 miles away.
A few disabled or drunk people in cities, that’s it.
The whole business model makes no sense at all, unless the business model is to eat through VC cash as fast as possible, shovelling it to the people who work there.
Takeaways have done deliveries for years before smartphones. Centralising that service and charging fees to both the buyer and the seller can be profitable.
The problem is that over the years there has been a squeeze on prices, based on loss leading from Deliveroo etc.
A number of sectors have been mucked up like this. A local chap, who owns and runs a "flex" business centre (hire space by the day, one person companies etc etc) says that his biggest problem is that people think that WeWork prices are the proper price....
Yes, mine has dropped about 2-years' income worth already. It makes me wonder what we pay fund managers for if not to forecast and react to market conditions. Making the right connections at Oxbridge, I expect.
It is a bit brutal for equity investors. My overseas portfolio is down 15% over 6 months, my domestic portfolio about 10%. Both better than the markets, but losing money less quickly isn't much solace.
I am holding for the long term.
My worry for a long time has been all these tech "unicorns". So much money has been piled into all these companies who never make any money with the promise that once they burned through billions that eventually they will dominant the market and make money.
A classic example, all the delivery apps, none of them made any sodding money even during the pandemic when we were all locked in our homes!
The tide is going out and there is going to be a more naked swimmers than your typical nudist beach.
I have never understood delivery apps - exactly how many people will pay the actual cost of someone waiting round to delivery that burger and fries to you from 2 miles away.
A few disabled or drunk people in cities, that’s it.
The whole business model makes no sense at all, unless the business model is to eat through VC cash as fast as possible, shovelling it to the people who work there.
Takeaways have done deliveries for years before smartphones. Centralising that service and charging fees to both the buyer and the seller can be profitable.
It doesn’t scale without huge marketing, that’s the problem.
Your local curry house can deliver because you know them already, it costs them a couple of quid to send one guy out with your £20 or £30 of product, no infrastructure required other than a phone line and a driver.
Paying someone to walk around a supermarket to pick up a can of Coke and a bag of crisps, on the other hand, can never be profitable if you’re paying that person minimum wage. It can be profitable if they’re doing £100 of shopping for you though.
Presumably the Bank of England financial models suggest that inflation is only transitory. So as interest rate increases only has an impact on inflation in around 2 years time and that inflation then is back to "normal" it is not worth increasing rates now? The problem is whether the model is correct and whether the risk is on the upside or downside.
34. In the MPC’s central projections in the May Monetary Policy Report, UK GDP growth had been expected to slow sharply over the first half of the forecast period and, although the labour market had been expected to tighten slightly further in the near term, the unemployment rate had been projected to rise to 5½% in three years’ time. CPI inflation had been expected to average slightly over 10% at its peak in 2022 Q4. Conditioned on the rising market-implied path for Bank Rate at that time and the MPC’s forecasting convention for future energy prices, CPI inflation had been projected to fall to a little above the 2% target in two years’ time, largely reflecting the waning influence of external factors, and to be well below the target in three years, mainly reflecting weaker domestic pressures. The risks to the inflation projection had been judged to be skewed to the upside at these points.
6-3 for 0.25% with 3 voting for 0.5%. That's very likely to be the BoE forming the bulk of the majority and the outsiders wanting more radical action.
As inflation bounds ahead the real rate of interest, of course, becomes more and more radically negative. An increase of 0.25% and then a delay of 2 months means that our monetary policy is in fact becoming even looser at a time of very high and increasing inflation. The hope is that these external factors are transitory but in the meantime we will see wages, food prices and pretty much everything else going up. To be blunt, I really cannot follow the logic of the majority.
What on Earth do they do, when the Fed adds 75bps more to the US$ base rate next month?
At some point reality will hit them on the arse, and we’ll end up seeing 150bps in one go. That will wake everyone up.
They are putting a lot of pressure on Sterling. Of course, given the extent of our ongoing trade deficit with the EU there may be some upside to that but its a bloody weird way to bring down inflation.
Comments
Another day, another cathedral
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNKjShmHw7s
(Wikipedia)
...In 1987, Geidt joined the staff of the Royal United Services Institute for Defence Studies, becoming an Assistant Director.[15] From 1994 he worked for the Foreign and Commonwealth Office in diplomatic posts in Sarajevo, Geneva and Brussels.[11]
In 1991, Geidt and Anthony de Normann sued the journalist John Pilger and Central Television over the documentary Cambodia: The Betrayal, in which they were accused of being members of the SAS secretly engaged in the training of the Khmer Rouge of Cambodia. Geidt and de Normann accepted "very substantial" damages and all costs.[16] In a related libel action Ann Clwyd MP, then shadow minister for overseas development, issued a public apology to Geidt and de Normann and agreed to meet all legal costs.[17]...
Bailey is the problem. Three MPC members voted for 0.5% hikes the last two meetings but Bailey always voted against. As the Chair I presume his view sways those on the fence, and so with someone else in charge we'd be in a different place.
DA, your man on the spot with multi-lingual teenage focus groups.
I imagine the SAS part is verifiable and true. So two good reasons to say nice stuff about him
(Maybe not quite true - I think Macron is probably the most supportive of Ukraine of the three but it isn't much support - Germany and Italy both wanted a quick Russian win, and failing that, a slower Russian win.... and failing that, a Russian win eventually!).
Body: 'A statement of intent released by DFDS and Ptarmigan Shipping reads: “Ptarmigan Shipping and DFDS have signed an agreement with the intention to further investigate the possibility for a new ferry route between Rosyth and Zeebrugge"... SNP MP Douglas Chapman... [said] "I am hugely excited by this announcement of further investigating the possibility to start a direct freight service between Rosyth and Zeebrugge in 2023"'
If Dougie is hugely excited by an agreement to investigate the possibility of doing something, Dunfermline and West Fife must be duller than I'd anticipated.
There was even talk of 100 bps.
So why the sluggish response from the UK ?
The higher the interest rate, the more valuable the currency, so if our interest rate is lower than the American interest rate, people sell pounds and buy dollars, which makes imports priced in dollars (like oil) more expensive, which adds to inflation.
Utterly extraordinary increase in UK gas futures prices today, up over 20% in a day. We are nowhere near through this yet.
The Conservative Party chained themselves to the Zombie Charlatan just 10 days ago, so both they and us are stuck with him.
I accept that a honeymoon follows a change of leader, but I can't see it overturning what looks like the worst economic picture since the 1970s.
The chair of the Fed was correct, that he sees 3.4% as a reasonable base rate target this year.
I think the Cathedral there doubled as a fortress, hence the arrow slits and thick walls.
- also told that Geidt *never* mentioned potential conflicts re Tory donors in his conversations and texts about this with the prime minister
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1537397649065885698
25% of the money in existence was printed after 2020.
Everywhere and always inflation is a monetary phenomenon.
As is some artificial display of being less in shit than the EU etc
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2022/june-2022
I am holding for the long term.
And Johnson has a defence, however threadbare, to the steel tariffs thing - "national interest".
I am not impressed at all by Geidt, though he has finally done the right thing.
A classic example, all the delivery apps, none of them made any sodding money even during the pandemic when we were all locked in our homes!
The tide is going out and there is going to be a more naked swimmers than your typical nudist beach.
I am strongly green on her for next Leader, but think Johnson will cling on until the next GE.
The 50-year graph shows what an anomaly the last few years has been.
Central bankers and politicians backing them need to be held to account for the ludicrous suppression of interest rates and frankly disgraceful QE programmes that have screwed us utterly.
Rotten establishment from top to bottom.
It may be naïve, but I don't suppose voters could care less about what is going on in France and Germany if they are unable to put food on the table or fuel in the tank in the UK. Incumbency means taking the rough with the smooth.
The whole business model makes no sense at all, unless the business model is to eat through VC cash as fast as possible, shovelling it to the people who work there.
Blame game/scapegoating
Playing up brexit - we would be worse if we'd stayed
All strands that have been tried historically or might be played now.
Its not a zero sum game, smoke and mirrors can still work in a recession, as can fear of the unknown.
Not saying it will work or is moral but not convinced it won't/can't/is etc
My understanding is the key problem is that the barrier to entry is so low that the anybody can come into the market, thus as a result they have to spend stupid amounts of money on advertising and promotions to key those that deliver. And of course its bad news for the restaurants themselves as they get hit with a big chunk of that cost.
There has been consolidation in the space, but still are spending eye watering sums to keep customers and of course recession incoming, who is going to pay £3.50 delivery charge on a £5 takeaway when you are brassic.
As inflation bounds ahead the real rate of interest, of course, becomes more and more radically negative. An increase of 0.25% and then a delay of 2 months means that our monetary policy is in fact becoming even looser at a time of very high and increasing inflation. The hope is that these external factors are transitory but in the meantime we will see wages, food prices and pretty much everything else going up. To be blunt, I really cannot follow the logic of the majority.
Jerk.
Here in Cambourne, we have cute little robots.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1z5r-AFy2a8
(And no, I've no idea how they'll make this pay...)
They don't think the rules apply to them, Boris Johnson isn't the heir to Churchill, he's the less competent Lloyd George.
Boris Johnson needs fixing, he'll fuck and hump everything he comes into contact with.
At some point reality will hit them on the arse, and we’ll end up seeing 150bps in one go. That will wake everyone up.
A Whitehall source says the 'odious' decision referred to by Lord Geidt refers to proposed protections for the UK steel industry, adding: 'We're happy to be judged on that in the Red Wall'
It is also why I think changing Tory leader won't have much impact
Despite paying the drivers / riders crap wages and no benefits, charging restaurants crazy amount of commission and certainly not cheap for the end customer, yet after that they still lose money hand over fist.
A number of sectors have been mucked up like this. A local chap, who owns and runs a "flex" business centre (hire space by the day, one person companies etc etc) says that his biggest problem is that people think that WeWork prices are the proper price....
Your local curry house can deliver because you know them already, it costs them a couple of quid to send one guy out with your £20 or £30 of product, no infrastructure required other than a phone line and a driver.
Paying someone to walk around a supermarket to pick up a can of Coke and a bag of crisps, on the other hand, can never be profitable if you’re paying that person minimum wage. It can be profitable if they’re doing £100 of shopping for you though.