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The Yorkshire Party for 3rd place in Wakefield? – politicalbetting.com
The Yorkshire Party for 3rd place in Wakefield? – politicalbetting.com
Betting on the Wakefield by-election has been a bit boring because it is blindingly obvious that LAB is going to retake the seat that it lost at GE2019 and the current odds of 98% are simply not tempting.
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Which bookmaker offers this tasty price?
It does indeed look like value.
I still reckon punters are over-estimating the Cons chances at Tiverton & Honiton and underestimating the visceral anger against Johnson across the south. If the LibDems do take it, it will send shockwaves across the political landscape. It isn't about whether the markets have factored in a LibDem win, it's because by all accounts this should not be fertile LibDem territory. The tories are throwing a lot at the constituency. I hope they get a kicking that will hasten Johnson's exit.
https://smarkets.com/event/42756835/politics/uk/by-elections/2022/06/23/21-00/wakefield-by-election-third-place
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/06/13/head-nasa-taking-ufos-seriously/
Bill Nelson, the former space shuttle astronaut and US senator, said he had personally talked to two Navy pilots who saw numerous flying objects in 2004, and had turned over the investigation to Nasa’s top scientist.
“We're taking this very seriously,” he told a briefing of science journalists.
“I've talked to the Navy pilots that know that they saw something back in 2004. They tracked it on their radar off the Southern California coast, over the Pacific.
“Since then hundreds of objects have been spotted and a couple of them were explained, they may be balloons, but most of them are unexplained.
“So I’ve asked Nasa, and it will be announced within a few days, to approach this subject from a scientific standpoint, since we are a scientific research organisation. In about eight months, they’re going to report.”
Asked whether he thought the sightings could be enemy aircraft, the Nasa administrator added: “Do I think it's an enemy? I hope it isn't, because the Navy pilots would describe it as: 'It's here and then it's over there. With no time in between.'
“And so my simple answer is I don't know. And that's why I've asked our scientists to see if they've got any explanation.”
That certainly did not 'mean little'. As your father is fond of reminding us, it directly led to the removal of Mrs Thatcher as Prime Minister the following month.
IF the LibDems do manage to win Tiverton & Honiton it will not 'mean little'. It will:
1. Send a shockwave across southern Conservatives. The LibDems are making inroads in places like Surrey and a number of tory MPs are in danger of losing their seats
AND
2. Hasten the removal of Boris Johnson
Jim Callaghan and Margaret Thatcher were both abroad at the crucial moments, like yourself and Sandpit who liked your post. This is not a criticism (I have lived abroad often) but to suggest that the mood in the country is uglier than you might you realise from distant shores.
I am fond of talking about the LibDem chances because they are the ones best represented in my area for defeating the Conservatives, despite the fact that I would naturally vote Labour if they had a better chance. It is a long time since I felt such an anti-tory force within me and I believe this to be truer now than at anytime since 1992-7, not just for me but for many others..
I believe that pollsters may be chronically under-estimating organic tactical voting and that's bad news for the Conservatives.
I am fond of talking about the LibDem chances because they are the ones best represented in my area for defeating the Conservatives, despite the fact that I would naturally vote Labour if they had a better chance. It is a long time since I felt such an anti-tory force within me and I believe this to be truer now than at anytime since 1992-7, not just for me but for many others.
I believe that pollsters may be chronically under-estimating organic tactical voting and that's bad news for the Conservatives.
Perhaps the universe wishes us to listen.
On an absolutely massive swing.
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2022/06/google-to-pay-118-million-after-being-accused-of-underpaying-15500-women/
IMO lots of question arise from this settlement.
Off-topic - a non-sensible punt seems to ensure that NI is heading for a sticky mess. With 54 MLAs - which must include some unionists - objecting to the new "Fuck the Bill" Bill and most of the unionists objecting because it doesn't go far enough, we're heading for another election later in the year.
What happens to the peace process when the bowler hat and sash twats refuse to participate in the assembly? Whilst consent was at the heart of the structure, they didn't allow for one part of one community refusing to consent unless it got its own way.
But if Tiverton & Honiton goes LibDem then no Conservative seat is safe and it would be the double whammy: the left-right sucker punch on the same day. The red wall to Labour, the blue south to the LibDems.
I don't believe Johnson will survive if both seats fall. Which is why Johnson's tories are piling efforts into saving it.
https://news.sky.com/story/cost-of-living-jobless-rate-hits-1973-low-as-record-numbers-seek-shield-by-entering-work-12633520
When was the other?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/06/13/no-new-tax-cuts-inflation-falls-suggests-boris-johnson/
Mr. Pioneers, the Order of the Garter was founded by Edward III, a king who was generally good and chivalrous.
If your argument is that the 14th century was less lovely than today, then I agree. It's rather harsh, however, to judge men born into that era by modern norms. How would you like to be judged according to the moral principles of the 28th century?
More recognition of hubris and humility would be a good thing. The only honour should be paradoxically reserved for those who shun it.
Etherium was also down 20% yesterday, actually fell more than BTC.
Tether at 0.9987 - that’s where today’s focus might be, as people wake up to the fact that there’s nothing actually behind it.
An amusing idea but one which I'm afraid revolts me. The idea that we should honour anyone based on their spending power is ... well ... cash for honours.
And the 'BE' bit really pisses me off. What the hell is the 'British Empire' but a celebration of a corrupt, violent, abusive and enslaving colonialism which crushed so many peoples.
A real 'honours' system would be reparations to all those we subjugated.
And with that thought I bid you all a happy day.
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Even when we do nice things and honour people who have made a difference - Captain Tom Moore as an example - it only serves to demonstrate just how punitive the system is. Captain Moore was knighted, but made a very basic knight. With 10 ranks in the Order of Chivalry below him. Many of the people in those ranks get their gong because of who they are or the job they did, rather than because of what they have done. So Sir Tom no post-nominals because you're not worth it was a snub.
The reality is simple - this government has demonstrated it is incapable of negotiation. So it doesn't want to invoke the A16 negotiation process as it knows it will only negotiate another settlement it doesn't understand. So fuck the bill, just impose a one-sided settlement and then claim to be an honest broker with all the people who now don't want to negotiate a coffee order with us.
Not that it will get through the House of Lords anyway. I can see the "Enemies of the State" headlines now.
It is already on Google Maps and Waze. It is not on Bing Maps yet. Can't easily check Apple atm...
These small things matter (tm).
I wonder how the developers keep up with these alterations to the road network around the world? Local offices keeping their eyes out for changes? Details pushed to them by local and central governments?
Prince Andrew is a member of the order.
The contraction of the economy was due to the closing of Test and Trace, if you strip that out then the economy actually grew by 0.1%
Now of course it would be fair to say that 0.1% is not very much and it certainly could go negative from here, especially with the way the government are mishandling the economy putting up taxes on people who are working, but that's not the same as saying it genuinely contracted last month already when closing Test and Trace was absolutely the right thing to do and a one off incidental.
They seemingly don’t exist, and even some of the desperately feeble videos we do have - the pyramids (bokeh) - have now been debunked
And yet, something is up in US military and political circles, which has to be explained. For the moment I stand by my belief that it is post-plague, China-exacerbated paranoia being used by others, with perhaps a core of true believers. That’s the best I can do; it is not satisfactory but no explanation is
On the other hand it does feel like several storylines are coming together at once. The revelation that DNA can arise spontaneously with great ease, the fact we are approaching AI, it all points to life in the universe being much more abundant than we thought, and if it is abundant then planets would be sending out AI probes and one or more of them will find, or have found, us. So I don;t rule out UFOs either
Good morning from a warm, stormy Yerevan
All good news. Had a great first day. My ankle was the size of a balloon by the end of it, but I had walked miles and this morning it feels great. Glad I decided to bring a crutch. People very kind to people with a crutch which is nice to know, although all offers declined. I tell them I am a fraud really.
Local paper reports queues at passport control were up to 3 hours so in hindsight I consider myself lucky and thank you PB for keeping me entertained while I waited.
Scrap the whole charade.
Do the local papers say why the queues were so bad? Simple lack of staff? Something else?
There are multiple reports of people jumping these queues now, across the world, by pretending to be wheelchair-bound. Perhaps you need to upgrade from your crutch
Before the Conservative party finally manages to remove Boris from office, whilst Starmer is tied up fighting allegations of naughtiness (made maliciously by Tories), whilst the Fate Of The Brexit hangs in the balance, why not throw caution to the wind, get the band back together and go for an election?
To any PM with a brain this would all be madness. But the PM is Boris Johnson...
1) We don't like the status quo
2) We don't like any of the alternatives to the status quo
3) Whatever it is, it's not our fault.
And also note that the only sensible NI party doesn't have a policy on the biggest political question.
On topic, by-elections do have e 'consequences'. Plaid Cymru was't really noticed in the Westminster context until Gwynfor Evans won Carmarthen in 1966.
Puts the honour into paying a contribution to the nation and exposes folk that avoid it. If you pay your taxes throughout your career you should be recognised.
The Americans have already turned around and said that this won't affect the US/UK trade negotiations, considering how popular the "Irish vote" is in America if any third parties were going to react it would have been them, and I'd have discounted that as pandering to the vote, but even they're not doing so. I definitely can't imagine it affecting Pacific nations negotiations with us for CPTPP accession either.
The A16 process isn't being invoked, but they have legal advice saying its not necessary. IANAL so will take them at their word. That process is just a method to get from where we are to the end point though, it is the end point that matters.
The proposed solution in the bill, the "impose a one-sided settlement" is precisely what I've suggested all along. The UK holds all the cards, we can impose a settlement because the EU is bluffing. It is true now, it was true years ago, it was true five years ago. Good on Liz Truss for calling the EU's bluff.
I read the Bill last night, I approve of it. It is the solution I've advocated for years, there's no Irish land border, no Irish sea border, no alignment, and dual regulations. Precisely what should have always been the end game here. You were crying havoc for years that it needed to be alignment that would end this, I'm sorry you're not getting your way.
Schrodingers NI where NI is both in the EU Single Market, and in the post-Brexit UK, simultaneously, is entirely within the principles of the Belfast Agreement. About time we have some common sense here.
I had previously said Portugal was using e-gates (because I read that). I lied. They aren't. Traditional stamping of passport being used. So don't believe anything I say in future.
No explanation from me I am afraid. Is it just normal in peak season and we have just been spoilt by EU gates? I traveled a lot during the pandemic and was obviously spoilt by the ease of travel then.
I must beg to amend the final comment. The Alliance do; they don't see the need for a border poll. Ifx that changes, it will be very significant.
So we use them in Britain because we don't particular care how long people stay - parts of Europe however really do care so you need actual stamps in your passport to provide a secondary audit for when the eGates fail to record your arrival or departure.
There is probably a Brexit element as well but it is likely minor compared to these other factors
Eg See here: huge queues at Australian airports. Pretty obviously, that ain’t Brexit
https://youtu.be/X14r7rta1sM
I'm a republican, but not because of this, even if we scrapped our current honour system the simple reality is it'd be replaced with something that works the same way. Look at republics around the world, like France or the USA, they have their own version of honours, and they do things in the same sort of way too.
Computerise the whole thing, put e-gates everywhere, problem solved
The reality is of course completely different but it requires thought and a certain level of knowledge to see what is actually happening.
Squeamish people (are there any hereabouts?) probably shouldn't read this.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/11/opinion/trump-january-6.html
Remember we spend a lot of time talking about 99% and 99.999% systems. Stamps on a passport are a 99.999% solution to a problem, eGates and a centralised database isn't even a 99% solution.
Putting aside the frankly childish nonsense in the headline money is pouring into UK tech at a rate that will certainly help growth in the future. I just hope some of this investment is outside London.
Don't know whether you saw my posts yesterday. Our queue was a 1000 deep (easy to judge by number of turns in snake), but it dropped to about 400 so I think we joined it after a flight or two from the states which was unlucky.
I also thanked you for your advice on Lisbon which we have already used.
At heart the idea of goods solely going from the rUK into NI and not for re-export needing extensive checking is ridiculous. If people start abusing a lack of such checks then they are breaking the law - go after them. But do not penalise traders within the country.
More generally, the Alliance aren'tr opposed to a border poll - they just don't support it. Not the same thing. And if HMG continues to rule NI from the sole point of view of keeping the DUP happy, there will be other reasons for Alliance to change their mind. For instance, wrecking the NI economy.
Also, it’s bollocks. I’ve been through a lot of borders recently - EU and otherwise - and there is intense pressure on the passport-stampers to hurry up (because of these queues). No one wants to lose tourist business, no one wants an Arrivals hall full of 1000 angry people.
My passport has many stamps, randomly distributed. I watch the passport stampers as they flick through, trying to check them all, until they inevitably sigh and tut and stamp me anyway, because they haven’t got time nor inclination to check every page as they should - esp if they want a “99.999% solution”.
Last summer going into Switzerland a bored (no queue) passport stamper said, as she handed my passport back to me, after checking my passport thoroughly, “Oh by the way you have a problem, you were stamped in to Spain last month but not stamped out, could be an issue with the EU. Get it fixed”
On my way out of Switzerland a week later I had time, again, to ask the new passport stamper about my problem. He looked at my passport even more carefully and said “there is no problem, you were stamped out of Spain here, look, page 13, the other woman just missed it”
99.999% solution. Lol
Raise millions for charity, foster lots of kids, make a difference to peoples lives - yes, an award of some sort.
But where are the convincing videos and photos? The irrefutable radar data, infra red signals, and the rest?
Leon - you are absolutely right. What did we have in the 50's? Blurry photos at the limit of detection. What do we have in the 2020's blurry photo's (and IR, and Radar etc.) at the limit of detection. Ergo, they don't exist. Given the increase in technology over those 70 years you'd think at least one of them would be caught in focus, but no. Unexplained anomalies, yes. Unexplainable anomalies, no.
Substitute 'Ghosts', 'God' or 'Bigfoot' for UFO's - same thing.
https://www.iflscience.com/spontaneous-formation-of-rna-on-volcanic-glass-could-explain-lifes-origins-63944
https://interestingengineering.com/researchers-think-theyve-found-how-earliest-building-blocks-of-life-formed-on-earth-and-maybe-mars
There is no way the UK government is going to do that
Is it some ginormous psyops to freak the Chinese? Does that make sense? Not really, So if it is not that, then what?
Liz Truss confirms the Rwanda flight will take off even if there is only one asylum seeker on board, there are currently seven and falling.
Main objection is that too many of the stamps are too boring.
More variety of stamps please, and colours.