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Thoughts on the polling debate from Nick Sparrow – formerly of ICM – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Alistair said:

    Huh, Covid admissions are rising.

    How about a Covid sitrep PB?

    How is it going round the world? Is it really over out there like it is here, if not why not?

    When’s the next time us 20 year olds will get vaccine?

    Could a bad variant come back to UK meaning some restrictions to save lives and protect the NHS?
    Will be publishing some stats in time for your G&T
    Jubilee super spreader event?
    New variants bouncing around.....
    BA.5 seems to be quite a problem in Portugal, which has a higher immunisation rate than us. Half of British covid is now BA.5.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/03/omicron-covid-subvariant-drives-spike-in-cases-and-deaths-in-portgual
    It's a new virus still finding its feet....

    My children both had a second round if it a couple of weeks back. 24 hours of high temp (just shy of 104F for one of them), and 10 days before a clear LFT.
    Daughter was staying with us, but we managed to avoid getting it by being very careful.
    The ten days is commonplace even when symptoms have disappeared. These days, it's symptoms that determine isolation, not testing.
    Not if you want to avoid catching it.
    A positive LFT means you are very likely still infectious, whatever the isolation rules.
    Does it?
    Yes.

    As this immunologist points out.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1533669140967350272

    There's some correlation between the speed of the test reaction (and red line thickness) and the amount of active virus present, though hard to quantify exactly, but a positive LFT necessarily means the presence of active virus.
    (Unlike PCR.)

    Important to me in this case, as I had RSC tickets...
    Why's it important to you? You have tickets, use the tickets.
    You ever been to the theatre when you had flu ?

    No, because I've never had the flu when I had theatre tickets.

    I would go. Or if I had Covid, why miss it, unless you're too sick to go?
    Because in a theatre I would be surrounded by tens of people in very close proximity to me for several hours. I wouldn't go if I had influenza (or even a heavy cold) either.

    Come to mention it, if I had syphilis (easily treated with antibiotics), I wouldn't go around having unprotected sex with people*.

    * Yes, yes, I know this relies on the unlikely scenario of lots of people wanting to have sex with me.
    Airborne viruses spread, it's what they do. So what if there's people in close proximity?

    Anyone who is immunocompromised and doesn't want to catch a virus would be wise to avoid any crowd. As far as I'm aware for healthy people catching viruses intermittently is good for the immune system and being overprotective is not. Any crowded event will inevitably have people there with airborne viruses.

    Having sex with someone when you have an STI is a very different thing to breathing.
    "Airborne viruses spread, it's what they do. So what if there's people in close proximity?"

    Ummm: all the evidence is that the likelihood of transmission is a function of proximity, time and ventilation.

    It's a matter of common courtesy to take basic precautions not to make other people sick.
    With common colds it's probably better to get them regularly rather than try to never have them.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    TimS said:

    EPG said:

    TimS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Johnson can’t afford to be outflanked by Truss. The same old dynamic. https://twitter.com/mij_europe/status/1535258941520855048

    Looks like Cheese n Crackers is now running the show. It must be that Boris senses that she is the most likely to resign from the Cabinet and do a Geoffrey. Nervous times for Boris.
    These politicians on a journey are a dangerous bunch. Truss an ex-Lib Dem and previous remainer, Lord Frost a grey bureaucrat with mainstream views, both on a trajectory rightwards and it seems like once people get the momentum there is a danger they keep going. Whereas the more stable right or leftwingers are a little less likely to go bonkers.

    That said Redwood seems also to have gone on a journey recently, towards Schumacher-esque autarchy.
    The simpler explanation is that Truss and Frost are preparing for a leadership election.
    Frost? Surely that would mean him resigning his peerage. And once resigned, he surely wouldn't get it back after a leadership challenge.
    Although I suppose Lord Home (of the Hirsel) did, back in the 60's.
    And for Truss it's not just leadership ambitions. Sunak, Javid, Mordaunt (even leaving aside Hunt) likely all have leadership ambitions but have not gone off on the same pugnacious trip as Truss or Frost.
    Well, that's because I imagine there are two tracks to win. One track is through the Bakers, the Redwoods, the Conservative Way Forwards, the Essex MPs of this world. If someone manages this without a Leadsom-type error, you have to favour them to win heavily in the membership ballot, especially if it's Frost who has not had to cast a single HoC vote in his life. The other track, which the four alternatives you mention would be taking, is through the middle, to attract the posh moderate MPs, the red wall, the ambitious MPs who want to win elections, and to hope that you can win the membership ballot based on greater appeal to the general public.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Alistair said:

    Huh, Covid admissions are rising.

    How about a Covid sitrep PB?

    How is it going round the world? Is it really over out there like it is here, if not why not?

    When’s the next time us 20 year olds will get vaccine?

    Could a bad variant come back to UK meaning some restrictions to save lives and protect the NHS?
    Will be publishing some stats in time for your G&T
    Jubilee super spreader event?
    New variants bouncing around.....
    BA.5 seems to be quite a problem in Portugal, which has a higher immunisation rate than us. Half of British covid is now BA.5.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/03/omicron-covid-subvariant-drives-spike-in-cases-and-deaths-in-portgual
    It's a new virus still finding its feet....

    My children both had a second round if it a couple of weeks back. 24 hours of high temp (just shy of 104F for one of them), and 10 days before a clear LFT.
    Daughter was staying with us, but we managed to avoid getting it by being very careful.
    The ten days is commonplace even when symptoms have disappeared. These days, it's symptoms that determine isolation, not testing.
    Not if you want to avoid catching it.
    A positive LFT means you are very likely still infectious, whatever the isolation rules.
    Does it?
    Yes.

    As this immunologist points out.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1533669140967350272

    There's some correlation between the speed of the test reaction (and red line thickness) and the amount of active virus present, though hard to quantify exactly, but a positive LFT necessarily means the presence of active virus.
    (Unlike PCR.)

    Important to me in this case, as I had RSC tickets...
    Why's it important to you? You have tickets, use the tickets.
    You ever been to the theatre when you had flu ?

    No, because I've never had the flu when I had theatre tickets.

    I would go. Or if I had Covid, why miss it, unless you're too sick to go?
    Because in a theatre I would be surrounded by tens of people in very close proximity to me for several hours. I wouldn't go if I had influenza (or even a heavy cold) either.

    Come to mention it, if I had syphilis (easily treated with antibiotics), I wouldn't go around having unprotected sex with people*.

    * Yes, yes, I know this relies on the unlikely scenario of lots of people wanting to have sex with me.
    Airborne viruses spread, it's what they do. So what if there's people in close proximity?

    Anyone who is immunocompromised and doesn't want to catch a virus would be wise to avoid any crowd. As far as I'm aware for healthy people catching viruses intermittently is good for the immune system and being overprotective is not. Any crowded event will inevitably have people there with airborne viruses.

    Having sex with someone when you have an STI is a very different thing to breathing.
    "Airborne viruses spread, it's what they do. So what if there's people in close proximity?"

    Ummm: all the evidence is that the likelihood of transmission is a function of proximity, time and ventilation.

    It's a matter of common courtesy to take basic precautions not to make other people sick.
    With common colds it's probably better to get them regularly rather than try to never have them.
    You will get common colds, because they are common and they spread easily. But is it really better to have them three times a year rather than two?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited June 2022
    Roger said:

    Priti Patel found to be lying again.

    She's a serial liar as is her boss.

    Is there really nothing anyone can do about these people?

    Her policy to introduce an Australian-type immigration system will ultimately prevail. Most of the other political parties will eventually support it, I predict.
  • Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Alistair said:

    Huh, Covid admissions are rising.

    How about a Covid sitrep PB?

    How is it going round the world? Is it really over out there like it is here, if not why not?

    When’s the next time us 20 year olds will get vaccine?

    Could a bad variant come back to UK meaning some restrictions to save lives and protect the NHS?
    Will be publishing some stats in time for your G&T
    Jubilee super spreader event?
    New variants bouncing around.....
    BA.5 seems to be quite a problem in Portugal, which has a higher immunisation rate than us. Half of British covid is now BA.5.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/03/omicron-covid-subvariant-drives-spike-in-cases-and-deaths-in-portgual
    It's a new virus still finding its feet....

    My children both had a second round if it a couple of weeks back. 24 hours of high temp (just shy of 104F for one of them), and 10 days before a clear LFT.
    Daughter was staying with us, but we managed to avoid getting it by being very careful.
    The ten days is commonplace even when symptoms have disappeared. These days, it's symptoms that determine isolation, not testing.
    Not if you want to avoid catching it.
    A positive LFT means you are very likely still infectious, whatever the isolation rules.
    Does it?
    Yes.

    As this immunologist points out.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1533669140967350272

    There's some correlation between the speed of the test reaction (and red line thickness) and the amount of active virus present, though hard to quantify exactly, but a positive LFT necessarily means the presence of active virus.
    (Unlike PCR.)

    Important to me in this case, as I had RSC tickets...
    Why's it important to you? You have tickets, use the tickets.
    You ever been to the theatre when you had flu ?

    No, because I've never had the flu when I had theatre tickets.

    I would go. Or if I had Covid, why miss it, unless you're too sick to go?
    Because in a theatre I would be surrounded by tens of people in very close proximity to me for several hours. I wouldn't go if I had influenza (or even a heavy cold) either.

    Come to mention it, if I had syphilis (easily treated with antibiotics), I wouldn't go around having unprotected sex with people*.

    * Yes, yes, I know this relies on the unlikely scenario of lots of people wanting to have sex with me.
    Airborne viruses spread, it's what they do. So what if there's people in close proximity?

    Anyone who is immunocompromised and doesn't want to catch a virus would be wise to avoid any crowd. As far as I'm aware for healthy people catching viruses intermittently is good for the immune system and being overprotective is not. Any crowded event will inevitably have people there with airborne viruses.

    Having sex with someone when you have an STI is a very different thing to breathing.
    "Airborne viruses spread, it's what they do. So what if there's people in close proximity?"

    Ummm: all the evidence is that the likelihood of transmission is a function of proximity, time and ventilation.

    It's a matter of common courtesy to take basic precautions not to make other people sick.
    Common courtesy extends to washing your hands etc, not imprisoning yourself in your home every time you're under the weather.

    If you were going on holiday and had a virus, would you refuse to go to the airport, voiding your holiday?
    Oh yes, the "covid is only a cold" excuse for ****ing up other people's lives and maybe killing them, just to avoid any inconvenience.
    It absolutely is. Live with it.

    I had COVID in December last year and based on the symptoms I had, I absolutely would go out next time I get it with the same symptoms, except for any hours I might feel too unwell to go out which is an extremely high bar. Not that I would have a test next time and the only reason I knew it was Covid not a cold last time was the test.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    Reading the Sky piece on the NI Bill, a thought occurred.
    Wouldn't it be ironic if the PM was finally brought down by his slavish dependence on the ERG and DUP?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Alistair said:

    Huh, Covid admissions are rising.

    How about a Covid sitrep PB?

    How is it going round the world? Is it really over out there like it is here, if not why not?

    When’s the next time us 20 year olds will get vaccine?

    Could a bad variant come back to UK meaning some restrictions to save lives and protect the NHS?
    Will be publishing some stats in time for your G&T
    Jubilee super spreader event?
    New variants bouncing around.....
    BA.5 seems to be quite a problem in Portugal, which has a higher immunisation rate than us. Half of British covid is now BA.5.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/03/omicron-covid-subvariant-drives-spike-in-cases-and-deaths-in-portgual
    It's a new virus still finding its feet....

    My children both had a second round if it a couple of weeks back. 24 hours of high temp (just shy of 104F for one of them), and 10 days before a clear LFT.
    Daughter was staying with us, but we managed to avoid getting it by being very careful.
    The ten days is commonplace even when symptoms have disappeared. These days, it's symptoms that determine isolation, not testing.
    Not if you want to avoid catching it.
    A positive LFT means you are very likely still infectious, whatever the isolation rules.
    Does it?
    Yes.

    As this immunologist points out.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1533669140967350272

    There's some correlation between the speed of the test reaction (and red line thickness) and the amount of active virus present, though hard to quantify exactly, but a positive LFT necessarily means the presence of active virus.
    (Unlike PCR.)

    Important to me in this case, as I had RSC tickets...
    Why's it important to you? You have tickets, use the tickets.
    You ever been to the theatre when you had flu ?

    No, because I've never had the flu when I had theatre tickets.

    I would go. Or if I had Covid, why miss it, unless you're too sick to go?
    Because in a theatre I would be surrounded by tens of people in very close proximity to me for several hours. I wouldn't go if I had influenza (or even a heavy cold) either.

    Come to mention it, if I had syphilis (easily treated with antibiotics), I wouldn't go around having unprotected sex with people*.

    * Yes, yes, I know this relies on the unlikely scenario of lots of people wanting to have sex with me.
    Airborne viruses spread, it's what they do. So what if there's people in close proximity?

    Anyone who is immunocompromised and doesn't want to catch a virus would be wise to avoid any crowd. As far as I'm aware for healthy people catching viruses intermittently is good for the immune system and being overprotective is not. Any crowded event will inevitably have people there with airborne viruses.

    Having sex with someone when you have an STI is a very different thing to breathing.
    You underestimate by orders of magnitude how much more infectious covid is over other airborne viruses, such as the flu.

    The landscape has dramtically changed for the immunocompromised.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Roger said:

    Priti Patel found to be lying again.

    She's a serial liar as is her boss.

    Is there really nothing anyone can do about these people?

    Labour’s job is to give us an alternative that's worth voting for.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,811
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Applicant said:

    MaxPB said:

    Applicant said:

    MaxPB said:

    Also the major criticism of UEFA for the ticket fiasco and the reason there were so many fakes floating around is because there was no security hologram this time around, that allowed fans to basically just print off their own using colour laser printers and perforated card. Tickets that are easy to forge is, IMO, inviting trouble.

    Wait, what? The last football game I went to was a National League game in April and the tickets for that had a hologram!
    They didn't, see here:



    The ticket on the left is real.
    That's utterly astonishing. Not even on the reverse? (I can't immediately find any pictures of the reverse online)
    Nah, no hologram at all. It made all the tickets very easy to fake. UEFA blamed the teams for insisting on paper tickets at first, as usual they're never responsible for their fuck ups, but the lack of the hologram is now being touted as the reason 5x as many fakes as they would normally see at a match like this were floating around.
    And the QR code?
    But that requires someone to actually scan them which is done at the entry gate not at the outer cordon.

    I'm not sure how many big football matches you've been to, I've been to a few and there's always an outer cordon where ticket holders have their tickets checked by eye and then the inside that it's ticket holders only. The reason the holograms exist on these kinds of tickets is to help the stewards at the outer cordon who don't have scanners to easily spot people with fakes.

    By not having the hologram UEFA took away this security layer and unsurprisingly a bunch of shysters with reasonably decent fake tickets were selling them just outside the outer cordon and some fans attempted to print their own. They got past the outer cordon easily and that's why there were all of these issues at the entry gates with people who had either been conned or were trying to con their way into the game making it impossible for legitimate ticket holders to get in.

    It was a UEFA fuck up and it looks as though the head of UEFA just got his gym buddy to take over as head of security despite being a complete novice and unsuitable for the job.
    I read that about UEFA, Two Slovenians eh. What are the odds

    Football is so fucked administratively. I guess it successfully generates so much money people don’t care about the governance - until something like this

    A bit like China, before Zero Covid
    Indeed and event security is probably the most critical bit of hosting a final. He's fucked up the Euro final in Wembley, the Europa League final this year and the Champions League final as well. Horrible record.
    More importantly, how is New Fatherhood? Are you sleeping? Covered in vom? Still elated? Depressed? Thinking of emigrating alone at night?

    I hope your experience is bright
    Tiring. Back to work now as well which is tough to leave behind wife and baby at home and traipse into the office twice a week.

    She's a pretty chill baby, eat, sleep, shit repeat.

    I'm averaging about 4 or 5 hours of sleep at the moment which is very draining having to work as well. I'm sure I'll get used to it though.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    darkage said:

    The more I think about it, it feels to me like the tories are in existential crisis. They could well be on the cusp of a "collapse of the liberal party" wipeout in the next general election. It is early 2019 revisited. Johnson's reinvention of the conservative party looks at the moment like it has completely failed. So, someone has to repeat what Johnson did in 2019, but with the first priority being to fix market credibility. It will be interesting to see what happens next. Time is short.

    Maybe Penny can reinvent them as the caring but discliplined party. Attractive matron.

    The main alternative, and favourite for the moment, is Hunt - comparatively a focus on pure professionalism. I'm not sure how far that would go, or how long it would necessarily last, though.
    Risk with Hunt is not only do the Tories fail to win back any voters lost to Labour or the LDs but they also leak Leavers back to RefUK and end up on the 20 to 25% they were on before May resigned and even worse than the 33% they are on now
    Farage would likely return to lead RefUK if Hunt replaced Boris as Tory leader and PM
    No he wouldn't. Why are you worrying about Leavers? We've left!

    Hunt/Mordaunt/Wallace need to calm the Blue wall without frightening the RedWall. It's a tough balance to achieve, but at present Johnson has pissed off both sets of voters.
    Hunt would likely try and return to May's Brexit Deal again, that would inevitably see some Tory Leavers leak to Farage and RefUK
    No he wouldn't.

    You primarily need to steady the nerves of Surrey voters and their ilk. They would prefer a softer redial of Brexit. Hunt does that for you.

    Your RedWall are currently concerned with the economy. You sell the Single Market to them as a means of improving the economy whilst retaining their newly minted sovereignty. You say selected Europeans can then come in to do the jobs they don't want to do, but explain it wouldn't be the free for all that Labour would allow (even if that is a white lie). Hunt could do that for you.

    You tell Farage and the ERG to **** off! Nobody likes them any more.

    Personally I'd like to see the back of the Conservatives for a decade. The longer Johnson remains, the more likely I suspect that becomes a reality.
    Reopen free movement which return to the single market requires and the redwall is lost to the Tories for good.

    Farage also would be even more certain to return than with a return to May's Deal
    Farage and the Tories would split what was left of the Tory vote after Johnson between them. Canada's Conservatives in 1993 would beckon.
    The Tories are never going to get less than about 165 seats (as they won in 1997 and 2001). The Canadian Conservatives were reduced to 2 seats in 1993. Not much of a comparison.
    If Farage's party overtook them, like Reform overtook the Canadian Tories in 1993 they would.

    See also the Les Republicains collapse in France as it has lost support to Le Pen and Zemmour as well as Macron

    No party led by Farage is ever going to overtake either the Tories or Labour - and probably not even the Lib Dems - in a GE. The best they can do is steal votes from them but even they they won't translate into seats. The dynamic simply isn't there.
    If the Tories went for a policy to rejoin the EU or return to the single market and full free movement they might.

    Before May went in Spring 2019 the Brexit Party were near neck and neck with the Tories in some polls. Until Johnson was elected Tory leader the Brexit Party even overtook the Tories in a few polls.

    At the 2015 General Election UKIP got more votes than the LDs if not more seats
    That was all then. This is now. This is the mistake you always make. You never look at the small print.

    It says:

    "'Past performance does not guarantee future results' "

    You ned a big sign stating this over your computer.
    If the Tories elected a leader committed to rejoining the EU they would get about 10% of the vote, the rest would defect to Farage's Party which would get about 30%.

    Though that is near impossible to foresee given Tory members would vote against any pro EU leadership candidate unless Tory MPs committed suicide and gave a coronation to such a candidate
    I am ever so grateful there are saner voices in the conservative party

    You are clever in some ways but utterly stupid in others

    Farage at 30% - really

    This is one of your stupid posts
    In the 2019 European elections the Tories got 9% and Farage's Brexit Party got 31% after May failed to deliver Brexit.

    If the Tories were stupid enough to elect a leader committed to rejoin the EU now those figures would be replicated at a general election too
    With respect, I suggest the publics view of the 'advantages' of Brexit is changing. S lowly, perhaps, but it is.
    I wonder what would happen if polls started showing, consistently, 65% Rejoin over 35% Stay Out

    FWIW I think this is quite unlikely. There is a big difference between Remorse and Rejoin. But I no longer think it impossible
    Rejoining would be the 21st century answer to the Restoration of 1660.
    Followed by plague and fire, you mean?n

    And who is the Tumbledown Dick to Johnson's Oliver Cromwell?
    Johnson is more Charles II, surely?

    Duplicitous, serial love cheat, but jolly and entertaining.

    Followed by the dour and humourless James II (who plays that role?) and then revolution.
    Reading Thucydides because I am going to Syracuse tomorrow and it is quite clear Johnson is Alcibiades, the mutilation of the Herms pure bullingdon and the Sicilian expedition was Athens's Brexit
    I’m loving the classical references @IshmaelZ but are you suggesting that BJ will eventually side with Sparta aka SKS to overthrow Athens aka the Tories?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    Applicant said:

    Roger said:

    Priti Patel found to be lying again.

    She's a serial liar as is her boss.

    Is there really nothing anyone can do about these people?

    Labour’s job is to give us an alternative that's worth voting for.
    It's to give around half of people that alternative, because the other half of people will never consider voting for them.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    I'm hesitant to speak up for the French on here, but isn't it to their credit that their Sports Minister has given a fulsome apology to Liverpool fans, and that they have completed a report, rather swiftly, that admits to multiple serious failures in overseeing the game?

    If I really tried, I could imagine some governments would find it much harder fessing up to such cock-ups, especially if they had denied all wrongdoing at the time of the event.

    An interesting point. And yet, I am 99% certain, if it weren’t for the existence of smartphones and social media - together providing overwhelming evidence: that the French government and the French police firstly failed, and then lyingly denied their failure - then we would still be listening to the Interior Minister lie.

    They didn’t go down the Road to Damascus, they just encountered the immovable obstacle of mass citizen journalism

    Note also that the French Left (apparently similar to our own Left) has been in a similar state of lying denial vis-a-vis the clear involvement of local black and Arab youths in the debacle
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,828

    I'm hesitant to speak up for the French on here, but isn't it to their credit that their Sports Minister has given a fulsome apology to Liverpool fans, and that they have completed a report, rather swiftly, that admits to multiple serious failures in overseeing the game?

    If I really tried, I could imagine some governments would find it much harder fessing up to such cock-ups, especially if they had denied all wrongdoing at the time of the event.

    Yes but they do keep going on about ticketless fans as a core issue when we keep hearing about people with leigitimate tickets not being recognised, in some cases friends and family of players.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    Right on cue...




    Prof. Christina Pagel 🇺🇦
    @chrischirp
    🧵THREAD: a new wave has started in England (and likely about to or has in rest of UK)

    TLDR: this will be 3rd wave within 6 months. Long covid an increasing issue - particularly in overexposed professions.

    We don't need a UK ventilator challenge we need a ventilation one!

    https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1535280913415913477
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    MrEd said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    darkage said:

    The more I think about it, it feels to me like the tories are in existential crisis. They could well be on the cusp of a "collapse of the liberal party" wipeout in the next general election. It is early 2019 revisited. Johnson's reinvention of the conservative party looks at the moment like it has completely failed. So, someone has to repeat what Johnson did in 2019, but with the first priority being to fix market credibility. It will be interesting to see what happens next. Time is short.

    Maybe Penny can reinvent them as the caring but discliplined party. Attractive matron.

    The main alternative, and favourite for the moment, is Hunt - comparatively a focus on pure professionalism. I'm not sure how far that would go, or how long it would necessarily last, though.
    Risk with Hunt is not only do the Tories fail to win back any voters lost to Labour or the LDs but they also leak Leavers back to RefUK and end up on the 20 to 25% they were on before May resigned and even worse than the 33% they are on now
    Farage would likely return to lead RefUK if Hunt replaced Boris as Tory leader and PM
    No he wouldn't. Why are you worrying about Leavers? We've left!

    Hunt/Mordaunt/Wallace need to calm the Blue wall without frightening the RedWall. It's a tough balance to achieve, but at present Johnson has pissed off both sets of voters.
    Hunt would likely try and return to May's Brexit Deal again, that would inevitably see some Tory Leavers leak to Farage and RefUK
    No he wouldn't.

    You primarily need to steady the nerves of Surrey voters and their ilk. They would prefer a softer redial of Brexit. Hunt does that for you.

    Your RedWall are currently concerned with the economy. You sell the Single Market to them as a means of improving the economy whilst retaining their newly minted sovereignty. You say selected Europeans can then come in to do the jobs they don't want to do, but explain it wouldn't be the free for all that Labour would allow (even if that is a white lie). Hunt could do that for you.

    You tell Farage and the ERG to **** off! Nobody likes them any more.

    Personally I'd like to see the back of the Conservatives for a decade. The longer Johnson remains, the more likely I suspect that becomes a reality.
    Reopen free movement which return to the single market requires and the redwall is lost to the Tories for good.

    Farage also would be even more certain to return than with a return to May's Deal
    Farage and the Tories would split what was left of the Tory vote after Johnson between them. Canada's Conservatives in 1993 would beckon.
    The Tories are never going to get less than about 165 seats (as they won in 1997 and 2001). The Canadian Conservatives were reduced to 2 seats in 1993. Not much of a comparison.
    If Farage's party overtook them, like Reform overtook the Canadian Tories in 1993 they would.

    See also the Les Republicains collapse in France as it has lost support to Le Pen and Zemmour as well as Macron

    No party led by Farage is ever going to overtake either the Tories or Labour - and probably not even the Lib Dems - in a GE. The best they can do is steal votes from them but even they they won't translate into seats. The dynamic simply isn't there.
    If the Tories went for a policy to rejoin the EU or return to the single market and full free movement they might.

    Before May went in Spring 2019 the Brexit Party were near neck and neck with the Tories in some polls. Until Johnson was elected Tory leader the Brexit Party even overtook the Tories in a few polls.

    At the 2015 General Election UKIP got more votes than the LDs if not more seats
    That was all then. This is now. This is the mistake you always make. You never look at the small print.

    It says:

    "'Past performance does not guarantee future results' "

    You ned a big sign stating this over your computer.
    If the Tories elected a leader committed to rejoining the EU they would get about 10% of the vote, the rest would defect to Farage's Party which would get about 30%.

    Though that is near impossible to foresee given Tory members would vote against any pro EU leadership candidate unless Tory MPs committed suicide and gave a coronation to such a candidate
    I am ever so grateful there are saner voices in the conservative party

    You are clever in some ways but utterly stupid in others

    Farage at 30% - really

    This is one of your stupid posts
    In the 2019 European elections the Tories got 9% and Farage's Brexit Party got 31% after May failed to deliver Brexit.

    If the Tories were stupid enough to elect a leader committed to rejoin the EU now those figures would be replicated at a general election too
    With respect, I suggest the publics view of the 'advantages' of Brexit is changing. S lowly, perhaps, but it is.
    I wonder what would happen if polls started showing, consistently, 65% Rejoin over 35% Stay Out

    FWIW I think this is quite unlikely. There is a big difference between Remorse and Rejoin. But I no longer think it impossible
    Rejoining would be the 21st century answer to the Restoration of 1660.
    Followed by plague and fire, you mean?n

    And who is the Tumbledown Dick to Johnson's Oliver Cromwell?
    Johnson is more Charles II, surely?

    Duplicitous, serial love cheat, but jolly and entertaining.

    Followed by the dour and humourless James II (who plays that role?) and then revolution.
    Reading Thucydides because I am going to Syracuse tomorrow and it is quite clear Johnson is Alcibiades, the mutilation of the Herms pure bullingdon and the Sicilian expedition was Athens's Brexit
    I’m loving the classical references @IshmaelZ but are you suggesting that BJ will eventually side with Sparta aka SKS to overthrow Athens aka the Tories?
    Yes if it saves his skin, and he gets to bed lady S

    Very excited, Syracuse is the most vividly described siege and sea battle and death march in ancient history, and I get to see it all
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    darkage said:

    The more I think about it, it feels to me like the tories are in existential crisis. They could well be on the cusp of a "collapse of the liberal party" wipeout in the next general election. It is early 2019 revisited. Johnson's reinvention of the conservative party looks at the moment like it has completely failed. So, someone has to repeat what Johnson did in 2019, but with the first priority being to fix market credibility. It will be interesting to see what happens next. Time is short.

    Maybe Penny can reinvent them as the caring but discliplined party. Attractive matron.

    The main alternative, and favourite for the moment, is Hunt - comparatively a focus on pure professionalism. I'm not sure how far that would go, or how long it would necessarily last, though.
    Risk with Hunt is not only do the Tories fail to win back any voters lost to Labour or the LDs but they also leak Leavers back to RefUK and end up on the 20 to 25% they were on before May resigned and even worse than the 33% they are on now
    Farage would likely return to lead RefUK if Hunt replaced Boris as Tory leader and PM
    No he wouldn't. Why are you worrying about Leavers? We've left!

    Hunt/Mordaunt/Wallace need to calm the Blue wall without frightening the RedWall. It's a tough balance to achieve, but at present Johnson has pissed off both sets of voters.
    Hunt would likely try and return to May's Brexit Deal again, that would inevitably see some Tory Leavers leak to Farage and RefUK
    No he wouldn't.

    You primarily need to steady the nerves of Surrey voters and their ilk. They would prefer a softer redial of Brexit. Hunt does that for you.

    Your RedWall are currently concerned with the economy. You sell the Single Market to them as a means of improving the economy whilst retaining their newly minted sovereignty. You say selected Europeans can then come in to do the jobs they don't want to do, but explain it wouldn't be the free for all that Labour would allow (even if that is a white lie). Hunt could do that for you.

    You tell Farage and the ERG to **** off! Nobody likes them any more.

    Personally I'd like to see the back of the Conservatives for a decade. The longer Johnson remains, the more likely I suspect that becomes a reality.
    Reopen free movement which return to the single market requires and the redwall is lost to the Tories for good.

    Farage also would be even more certain to return than with a return to May's Deal
    Farage and the Tories would split what was left of the Tory vote after Johnson between them. Canada's Conservatives in 1993 would beckon.
    The Tories are never going to get less than about 165 seats (as they won in 1997 and 2001). The Canadian Conservatives were reduced to 2 seats in 1993. Not much of a comparison.
    If Farage's party overtook them, like Reform overtook the Canadian Tories in 1993 they would.

    See also the Les Republicains collapse in France as it has lost support to Le Pen and Zemmour as well as Macron

    No party led by Farage is ever going to overtake either the Tories or Labour - and probably not even the Lib Dems - in a GE. The best they can do is steal votes from them but even they they won't translate into seats. The dynamic simply isn't there.
    If the Tories went for a policy to rejoin the EU or return to the single market and full free movement they might.

    Before May went in Spring 2019 the Brexit Party were near neck and neck with the Tories in some polls. Until Johnson was elected Tory leader the Brexit Party even overtook the Tories in a few polls.

    At the 2015 General Election UKIP got more votes than the LDs if not more seats
    That was all then. This is now. This is the mistake you always make. You never look at the small print.

    It says:

    "'Past performance does not guarantee future results' "

    You ned a big sign stating this over your computer.
    If the Tories elected a leader committed to rejoining the EU they would get about 10% of the vote, the rest would defect to Farage's Party which would get about 30%.

    Though that is near impossible to foresee given Tory members would vote against any pro EU leadership candidate unless Tory MPs committed suicide and gave a coronation to such a candidate
    I am ever so grateful there are saner voices in the conservative party

    You are clever in some ways but utterly stupid in others

    Farage at 30% - really

    This is one of your stupid posts
    In the 2019 European elections the Tories got 9% and Farage's Brexit Party got 31% after May failed to deliver Brexit.

    If the Tories were stupid enough to elect a leader committed to rejoin the EU now those figures would be replicated at a general election too
    With respect, I suggest the publics view of the 'advantages' of Brexit is changing. S lowly, perhaps, but it is.
    I wonder what would happen if polls started showing, consistently, 65% Rejoin over 35% Stay Out

    FWIW I think this is quite unlikely. There is a big difference between Remorse and Rejoin. But I no longer think it impossible
    Rejoining would be the 21st century answer to the Restoration of 1660.
    Followed by plague and fire, you mean?n

    And who is the Tumbledown Dick to Johnson's Oliver Cromwell?
    Johnson is more Charles II, surely?

    Duplicitous, serial love cheat, but jolly and entertaining.

    Followed by the dour and humourless James II (who plays that role?) and then revolution.
    Reading Thucydides because I am going to Syracuse tomorrow and it is quite clear Johnson is Alcibiades, the mutilation of the Herms pure bullingdon and the Sicilian expedition was Athens's Brexit
    Complete with a viral plague, as I recall?
    That was earlier but part of the same cock up
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652

    Right on cue...




    Prof. Christina Pagel 🇺🇦
    @chrischirp
    🧵THREAD: a new wave has started in England (and likely about to or has in rest of UK)

    TLDR: this will be 3rd wave within 6 months. Long covid an increasing issue - particularly in overexposed professions.

    We don't need a UK ventilator challenge we need a ventilation one!

    https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1535280913415913477

    Oh, good. The bit where we're told it's a sexist hate crime to call a Communist Party member a Communist.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Applicant said:

    MaxPB said:

    Applicant said:

    MaxPB said:

    Also the major criticism of UEFA for the ticket fiasco and the reason there were so many fakes floating around is because there was no security hologram this time around, that allowed fans to basically just print off their own using colour laser printers and perforated card. Tickets that are easy to forge is, IMO, inviting trouble.

    Wait, what? The last football game I went to was a National League game in April and the tickets for that had a hologram!
    They didn't, see here:



    The ticket on the left is real.
    That's utterly astonishing. Not even on the reverse? (I can't immediately find any pictures of the reverse online)
    Nah, no hologram at all. It made all the tickets very easy to fake. UEFA blamed the teams for insisting on paper tickets at first, as usual they're never responsible for their fuck ups, but the lack of the hologram is now being touted as the reason 5x as many fakes as they would normally see at a match like this were floating around.
    And the QR code?
    But that requires someone to actually scan them which is done at the entry gate not at the outer cordon.

    I'm not sure how many big football matches you've been to, I've been to a few and there's always an outer cordon where ticket holders have their tickets checked by eye and then the inside that it's ticket holders only. The reason the holograms exist on these kinds of tickets is to help the stewards at the outer cordon who don't have scanners to easily spot people with fakes.

    By not having the hologram UEFA took away this security layer and unsurprisingly a bunch of shysters with reasonably decent fake tickets were selling them just outside the outer cordon and some fans attempted to print their own. They got past the outer cordon easily and that's why there were all of these issues at the entry gates with people who had either been conned or were trying to con their way into the game making it impossible for legitimate ticket holders to get in.

    It was a UEFA fuck up and it looks as though the head of UEFA just got his gym buddy to take over as head of security despite being a complete novice and unsuitable for the job.
    I read that about UEFA, Two Slovenians eh. What are the odds

    Football is so fucked administratively. I guess it successfully generates so much money people don’t care about the governance - until something like this

    A bit like China, before Zero Covid
    Indeed and event security is probably the most critical bit of hosting a final. He's fucked up the Euro final in Wembley, the Europa League final this year and the Champions League final as well. Horrible record.
    More importantly, how is New Fatherhood? Are you sleeping? Covered in vom? Still elated? Depressed? Thinking of emigrating alone at night?

    I hope your experience is bright
    Tiring. Back to work now as well which is tough to leave behind wife and baby at home and traipse into the office twice a week.

    She's a pretty chill baby, eat, sleep, shit repeat.

    I'm averaging about 4 or 5 hours of sleep at the moment which is very draining having to work as well. I'm sure I'll get used to it though.
    Mate, it’s fucking tough. Sympathies

    At one point (month 3?) we could only get my eldest to sleep if I - literally - balanced her on my chest. Where she would slumber happily. I imagine my heartbeat was soothing and sounded womblike and maternal. Her mum could not do it because nipples, breastfeeding etc

    But of course with my tiny daughter on my chest that meant I could not sleep at all. I had to lie there, motionless, and rigid. I got about 3 hours a night for a while

    So grim! And the lack of sleep somehow builds up, like a toxin in the ecosystem. In the end I lapsed into a paternal post natal depression (it happens to 1 in 10 apparently). Luckily it was very short lived. A few weeks if that. But nasty

    Remember to self care! Dads are often neglected and ignored, and then Dads feel guilty for feeling like shit

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Applicant said:

    MaxPB said:

    Applicant said:

    MaxPB said:

    Also the major criticism of UEFA for the ticket fiasco and the reason there were so many fakes floating around is because there was no security hologram this time around, that allowed fans to basically just print off their own using colour laser printers and perforated card. Tickets that are easy to forge is, IMO, inviting trouble.

    Wait, what? The last football game I went to was a National League game in April and the tickets for that had a hologram!
    They didn't, see here:



    The ticket on the left is real.
    That's utterly astonishing. Not even on the reverse? (I can't immediately find any pictures of the reverse online)
    Nah, no hologram at all. It made all the tickets very easy to fake. UEFA blamed the teams for insisting on paper tickets at first, as usual they're never responsible for their fuck ups, but the lack of the hologram is now being touted as the reason 5x as many fakes as they would normally see at a match like this were floating around.
    And the QR code?
    But that requires someone to actually scan them which is done at the entry gate not at the outer cordon.

    I'm not sure how many big football matches you've been to, I've been to a few and there's always an outer cordon where ticket holders have their tickets checked by eye and then the inside that it's ticket holders only. The reason the holograms exist on these kinds of tickets is to help the stewards at the outer cordon who don't have scanners to easily spot people with fakes.

    By not having the hologram UEFA took away this security layer and unsurprisingly a bunch of shysters with reasonably decent fake tickets were selling them just outside the outer cordon and some fans attempted to print their own. They got past the outer cordon easily and that's why there were all of these issues at the entry gates with people who had either been conned or were trying to con their way into the game making it impossible for legitimate ticket holders to get in.

    It was a UEFA fuck up and it looks as though the head of UEFA just got his gym buddy to take over as head of security despite being a complete novice and unsuitable for the job.
    I read that about UEFA, Two Slovenians eh. What are the odds

    Football is so fucked administratively. I guess it successfully generates so much money people don’t care about the governance - until something like this

    A bit like China, before Zero Covid
    Indeed and event security is probably the most critical bit of hosting a final. He's fucked up the Euro final in Wembley, the Europa League final this year and the Champions League final as well. Horrible record.
    More importantly, how is New Fatherhood? Are you sleeping? Covered in vom? Still elated? Depressed? Thinking of emigrating alone at night?

    I hope your experience is bright
    Tiring. Back to work now as well which is tough to leave behind wife and baby at home and traipse into the office twice a week.

    She's a pretty chill baby, eat, sleep, shit repeat.

    I'm averaging about 4 or 5 hours of sleep at the moment which is very draining having to work as well. I'm sure I'll get used to it though.
    Mate, it’s fucking tough. Sympathies

    At one point (month 3?) we could only get my eldest to sleep if I - literally - balanced her on my chest. Where she would slumber happily. I imagine my heartbeat was soothing and sounded womblike and maternal. Her mum could not do it because nipples, breastfeeding etc

    But of course with my tiny daughter on my chest that meant I could not sleep at all. I had to lie there, motionless, and rigid. I got about 3 hours a night for a while

    So grim! And the lack of sleep somehow builds up, like a toxin in the ecosystem. In the end I lapsed into a paternal post natal depression (it happens to 1 in 10 apparently). Luckily it was very short lived. A few weeks if that. But nasty

    Remember to self care! Dads are often neglected and ignored, and then Dads feel guilty for feeling like shit

    Yes, I remember those days. I would literally walk in a circle around our lounge for two, three hours at 3am, because that was the only way to settle our son. At 5am he'd finally drift off, and I'd try and grab 90 more minutes before work.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,256
    pigeon said:

    Off topic, but good

    Heatwave next weekend. Get yourself bikini ready PB and off to the beach!

    https://www.yr.no/nb/værvarsel/daglig-tabell/2-6296599/Storbritannia/England/Stor-London/London City lufthavn

    Taking into consideration the gender balance on here I’m opening a mind bleach store if anyone wants to buy
    I was about to say that some of us find the thought of scantily clad young gentlemen (most definitely not in bikinis, mind you) rather inviting. I then thought about the likely age profile of PB as well...

    How much exactly does the mind bleach retail for?
    Before I quote a price, I’d like to you to consider the physical fitness and activity profile of most of the posters…
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    Applicant said:

    Roger said:

    Priti Patel found to be lying again.

    She's a serial liar as is her boss.

    Is there really nothing anyone can do about these people?

    Labour’s job is to give us an alternative that's worth voting for.
    How's that going?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,828
    Can anyone explain what the government is trying to do regards the NI Protocol? I notice Max was on yesterday with stories about poor business confidence. Has it escaped people's attention this may have something to do with Brexit and the threat of a trade war with the EU?

    And why is it so important to the Tory hardliners? Most people in Northern Ireland accept the protocol. Are we really going to get into a trade war with our nearest partners because of the DUP?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    IshmaelZ said:

    MrEd said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    darkage said:

    The more I think about it, it feels to me like the tories are in existential crisis. They could well be on the cusp of a "collapse of the liberal party" wipeout in the next general election. It is early 2019 revisited. Johnson's reinvention of the conservative party looks at the moment like it has completely failed. So, someone has to repeat what Johnson did in 2019, but with the first priority being to fix market credibility. It will be interesting to see what happens next. Time is short.

    Maybe Penny can reinvent them as the caring but discliplined party. Attractive matron.

    The main alternative, and favourite for the moment, is Hunt - comparatively a focus on pure professionalism. I'm not sure how far that would go, or how long it would necessarily last, though.
    Risk with Hunt is not only do the Tories fail to win back any voters lost to Labour or the LDs but they also leak Leavers back to RefUK and end up on the 20 to 25% they were on before May resigned and even worse than the 33% they are on now
    Farage would likely return to lead RefUK if Hunt replaced Boris as Tory leader and PM
    No he wouldn't. Why are you worrying about Leavers? We've left!

    Hunt/Mordaunt/Wallace need to calm the Blue wall without frightening the RedWall. It's a tough balance to achieve, but at present Johnson has pissed off both sets of voters.
    Hunt would likely try and return to May's Brexit Deal again, that would inevitably see some Tory Leavers leak to Farage and RefUK
    No he wouldn't.

    You primarily need to steady the nerves of Surrey voters and their ilk. They would prefer a softer redial of Brexit. Hunt does that for you.

    Your RedWall are currently concerned with the economy. You sell the Single Market to them as a means of improving the economy whilst retaining their newly minted sovereignty. You say selected Europeans can then come in to do the jobs they don't want to do, but explain it wouldn't be the free for all that Labour would allow (even if that is a white lie). Hunt could do that for you.

    You tell Farage and the ERG to **** off! Nobody likes them any more.

    Personally I'd like to see the back of the Conservatives for a decade. The longer Johnson remains, the more likely I suspect that becomes a reality.
    Reopen free movement which return to the single market requires and the redwall is lost to the Tories for good.

    Farage also would be even more certain to return than with a return to May's Deal
    Farage and the Tories would split what was left of the Tory vote after Johnson between them. Canada's Conservatives in 1993 would beckon.
    The Tories are never going to get less than about 165 seats (as they won in 1997 and 2001). The Canadian Conservatives were reduced to 2 seats in 1993. Not much of a comparison.
    If Farage's party overtook them, like Reform overtook the Canadian Tories in 1993 they would.

    See also the Les Republicains collapse in France as it has lost support to Le Pen and Zemmour as well as Macron

    No party led by Farage is ever going to overtake either the Tories or Labour - and probably not even the Lib Dems - in a GE. The best they can do is steal votes from them but even they they won't translate into seats. The dynamic simply isn't there.
    If the Tories went for a policy to rejoin the EU or return to the single market and full free movement they might.

    Before May went in Spring 2019 the Brexit Party were near neck and neck with the Tories in some polls. Until Johnson was elected Tory leader the Brexit Party even overtook the Tories in a few polls.

    At the 2015 General Election UKIP got more votes than the LDs if not more seats
    That was all then. This is now. This is the mistake you always make. You never look at the small print.

    It says:

    "'Past performance does not guarantee future results' "

    You ned a big sign stating this over your computer.
    If the Tories elected a leader committed to rejoining the EU they would get about 10% of the vote, the rest would defect to Farage's Party which would get about 30%.

    Though that is near impossible to foresee given Tory members would vote against any pro EU leadership candidate unless Tory MPs committed suicide and gave a coronation to such a candidate
    I am ever so grateful there are saner voices in the conservative party

    You are clever in some ways but utterly stupid in others

    Farage at 30% - really

    This is one of your stupid posts
    In the 2019 European elections the Tories got 9% and Farage's Brexit Party got 31% after May failed to deliver Brexit.

    If the Tories were stupid enough to elect a leader committed to rejoin the EU now those figures would be replicated at a general election too
    With respect, I suggest the publics view of the 'advantages' of Brexit is changing. S lowly, perhaps, but it is.
    I wonder what would happen if polls started showing, consistently, 65% Rejoin over 35% Stay Out

    FWIW I think this is quite unlikely. There is a big difference between Remorse and Rejoin. But I no longer think it impossible
    Rejoining would be the 21st century answer to the Restoration of 1660.
    Followed by plague and fire, you mean?n

    And who is the Tumbledown Dick to Johnson's Oliver Cromwell?
    Johnson is more Charles II, surely?

    Duplicitous, serial love cheat, but jolly and entertaining.

    Followed by the dour and humourless James II (who plays that role?) and then revolution.
    Reading Thucydides because I am going to Syracuse tomorrow and it is quite clear Johnson is Alcibiades, the mutilation of the Herms pure bullingdon and the Sicilian expedition was Athens's Brexit
    I’m loving the classical references @IshmaelZ but are you suggesting that BJ will eventually side with Sparta aka SKS to overthrow Athens aka the Tories?
    Yes if it saves his skin, and he gets to bed lady S

    Very excited, Syracuse is the most vividly described siege and sea battle and death march in ancient history, and I get to see it all
    Yes, I get that - if he gets a shag. the. definitely. Can’t see SKS as the wife sharing type. Maybe BJ is hoping for a threesome with Yvette Cooper and Rachel Reeves.

    In any event, enjoy Syracuse, extremely jealous
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,820
    England looking depressingly unthreatening with the new ball. Trying a bit of spin before the close. Good day for NZ
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    edited June 2022

    pigeon said:

    Off topic, but good

    Heatwave next weekend. Get yourself bikini ready PB and off to the beach!

    https://www.yr.no/nb/værvarsel/daglig-tabell/2-6296599/Storbritannia/England/Stor-London/London City lufthavn

    Taking into consideration the gender balance on here I’m opening a mind bleach store if anyone wants to buy
    I was about to say that some of us find the thought of scantily clad young gentlemen (most definitely not in bikinis, mind you) rather inviting. I then thought about the likely age profile of PB as well...

    How much exactly does the mind bleach retail for?
    Before I quote a price, I’d like to you to consider the physical fitness and activity profile of most of the posters…
    I think, in PB context, 'bikini ready' means 'a trip to the binocular store' for a non-trivial percentage of posters ... but very glad to see that SE Scotland is forecast to be 10 degC cooler than London/SE. Nasty heat, nasty UV.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    MrEd said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    MrEd said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    darkage said:

    The more I think about it, it feels to me like the tories are in existential crisis. They could well be on the cusp of a "collapse of the liberal party" wipeout in the next general election. It is early 2019 revisited. Johnson's reinvention of the conservative party looks at the moment like it has completely failed. So, someone has to repeat what Johnson did in 2019, but with the first priority being to fix market credibility. It will be interesting to see what happens next. Time is short.

    Maybe Penny can reinvent them as the caring but discliplined party. Attractive matron.

    The main alternative, and favourite for the moment, is Hunt - comparatively a focus on pure professionalism. I'm not sure how far that would go, or how long it would necessarily last, though.
    Risk with Hunt is not only do the Tories fail to win back any voters lost to Labour or the LDs but they also leak Leavers back to RefUK and end up on the 20 to 25% they were on before May resigned and even worse than the 33% they are on now
    Farage would likely return to lead RefUK if Hunt replaced Boris as Tory leader and PM
    No he wouldn't. Why are you worrying about Leavers? We've left!

    Hunt/Mordaunt/Wallace need to calm the Blue wall without frightening the RedWall. It's a tough balance to achieve, but at present Johnson has pissed off both sets of voters.
    Hunt would likely try and return to May's Brexit Deal again, that would inevitably see some Tory Leavers leak to Farage and RefUK
    No he wouldn't.

    You primarily need to steady the nerves of Surrey voters and their ilk. They would prefer a softer redial of Brexit. Hunt does that for you.

    Your RedWall are currently concerned with the economy. You sell the Single Market to them as a means of improving the economy whilst retaining their newly minted sovereignty. You say selected Europeans can then come in to do the jobs they don't want to do, but explain it wouldn't be the free for all that Labour would allow (even if that is a white lie). Hunt could do that for you.

    You tell Farage and the ERG to **** off! Nobody likes them any more.

    Personally I'd like to see the back of the Conservatives for a decade. The longer Johnson remains, the more likely I suspect that becomes a reality.
    Reopen free movement which return to the single market requires and the redwall is lost to the Tories for good.

    Farage also would be even more certain to return than with a return to May's Deal
    Farage and the Tories would split what was left of the Tory vote after Johnson between them. Canada's Conservatives in 1993 would beckon.
    The Tories are never going to get less than about 165 seats (as they won in 1997 and 2001). The Canadian Conservatives were reduced to 2 seats in 1993. Not much of a comparison.
    If Farage's party overtook them, like Reform overtook the Canadian Tories in 1993 they would.

    See also the Les Republicains collapse in France as it has lost support to Le Pen and Zemmour as well as Macron

    No party led by Farage is ever going to overtake either the Tories or Labour - and probably not even the Lib Dems - in a GE. The best they can do is steal votes from them but even they they won't translate into seats. The dynamic simply isn't there.
    If the Tories went for a policy to rejoin the EU or return to the single market and full free movement they might.

    Before May went in Spring 2019 the Brexit Party were near neck and neck with the Tories in some polls. Until Johnson was elected Tory leader the Brexit Party even overtook the Tories in a few polls.

    At the 2015 General Election UKIP got more votes than the LDs if not more seats
    That was all then. This is now. This is the mistake you always make. You never look at the small print.

    It says:

    "'Past performance does not guarantee future results' "

    You ned a big sign stating this over your computer.
    If the Tories elected a leader committed to rejoining the EU they would get about 10% of the vote, the rest would defect to Farage's Party which would get about 30%.

    Though that is near impossible to foresee given Tory members would vote against any pro EU leadership candidate unless Tory MPs committed suicide and gave a coronation to such a candidate
    I am ever so grateful there are saner voices in the conservative party

    You are clever in some ways but utterly stupid in others

    Farage at 30% - really

    This is one of your stupid posts
    In the 2019 European elections the Tories got 9% and Farage's Brexit Party got 31% after May failed to deliver Brexit.

    If the Tories were stupid enough to elect a leader committed to rejoin the EU now those figures would be replicated at a general election too
    With respect, I suggest the publics view of the 'advantages' of Brexit is changing. S lowly, perhaps, but it is.
    I wonder what would happen if polls started showing, consistently, 65% Rejoin over 35% Stay Out

    FWIW I think this is quite unlikely. There is a big difference between Remorse and Rejoin. But I no longer think it impossible
    Rejoining would be the 21st century answer to the Restoration of 1660.
    Followed by plague and fire, you mean?n

    And who is the Tumbledown Dick to Johnson's Oliver Cromwell?
    Johnson is more Charles II, surely?

    Duplicitous, serial love cheat, but jolly and entertaining.

    Followed by the dour and humourless James II (who plays that role?) and then revolution.
    Reading Thucydides because I am going to Syracuse tomorrow and it is quite clear Johnson is Alcibiades, the mutilation of the Herms pure bullingdon and the Sicilian expedition was Athens's Brexit
    I’m loving the classical references @IshmaelZ but are you suggesting that BJ will eventually side with Sparta aka SKS to overthrow Athens aka the Tories?
    Yes if it saves his skin, and he gets to bed lady S

    Very excited, Syracuse is the most vividly described siege and sea battle and death march in ancient history, and I get to see it all
    Yes, I get that - if he gets a shag. the. definitely. Can’t see SKS as the wife sharing type. Maybe BJ is hoping for a threesome with Yvette Cooper and Rachel Reeves.

    In any event, enjoy Syracuse, extremely jealous
    And do tell us if you visit Aristotle's tomb (no idea if it is still there myself).
  • https://twitter.com/OprosUK/status/1535281899811250176

    Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 36% (-3) CON: 32% (+1) LDM: 12% (=) GRN: 7% (+1) REF: 4% (=) via @YouGov , 1-3 Jun (Changes with 25 May)
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    EPG said:

    Applicant said:

    Roger said:

    Priti Patel found to be lying again.

    She's a serial liar as is her boss.

    Is there really nothing anyone can do about these people?

    Labour’s job is to give us an alternative that's worth voting for.
    It's to give around half of people that alternative, because the other half of people will never consider voting for them.
    Nowhere near that high, I suspect. I feel it's more like 20% will always vote Labour no matter what and 20% will always vote Tory no matter what. So Labour need to get 20-25 of the remaining 60.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    https://twitter.com/OprosUK/status/1535281899811250176

    Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 36% (-3) CON: 32% (+1) LDM: 12% (=) GRN: 7% (+1) REF: 4% (=) via @YouGov , 1-3 Jun (Changes with 25 May)

    That’s….. remarkable. Surely an outlier
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Applicant said:

    Roger said:

    Priti Patel found to be lying again.

    She's a serial liar as is her boss.

    Is there really nothing anyone can do about these people?

    Labour’s job is to give us an alternative that's worth voting for.
    How's that going?
    Indeed.

    Earlier this week I assessed their policy offer as 4/10.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Applicant said:

    MaxPB said:

    Applicant said:

    MaxPB said:

    Also the major criticism of UEFA for the ticket fiasco and the reason there were so many fakes floating around is because there was no security hologram this time around, that allowed fans to basically just print off their own using colour laser printers and perforated card. Tickets that are easy to forge is, IMO, inviting trouble.

    Wait, what? The last football game I went to was a National League game in April and the tickets for that had a hologram!
    They didn't, see here:



    The ticket on the left is real.
    That's utterly astonishing. Not even on the reverse? (I can't immediately find any pictures of the reverse online)
    Nah, no hologram at all. It made all the tickets very easy to fake. UEFA blamed the teams for insisting on paper tickets at first, as usual they're never responsible for their fuck ups, but the lack of the hologram is now being touted as the reason 5x as many fakes as they would normally see at a match like this were floating around.
    And the QR code?
    But that requires someone to actually scan them which is done at the entry gate not at the outer cordon.

    I'm not sure how many big football matches you've been to, I've been to a few and there's always an outer cordon where ticket holders have their tickets checked by eye and then the inside that it's ticket holders only. The reason the holograms exist on these kinds of tickets is to help the stewards at the outer cordon who don't have scanners to easily spot people with fakes.

    By not having the hologram UEFA took away this security layer and unsurprisingly a bunch of shysters with reasonably decent fake tickets were selling them just outside the outer cordon and some fans attempted to print their own. They got past the outer cordon easily and that's why there were all of these issues at the entry gates with people who had either been conned or were trying to con their way into the game making it impossible for legitimate ticket holders to get in.

    It was a UEFA fuck up and it looks as though the head of UEFA just got his gym buddy to take over as head of security despite being a complete novice and unsuitable for the job.
    I read that about UEFA, Two Slovenians eh. What are the odds

    Football is so fucked administratively. I guess it successfully generates so much money people don’t care about the governance - until something like this

    A bit like China, before Zero Covid
    Indeed and event security is probably the most critical bit of hosting a final. He's fucked up the Euro final in Wembley, the Europa League final this year and the Champions League final as well. Horrible record.
    More importantly, how is New Fatherhood? Are you sleeping? Covered in vom? Still elated? Depressed? Thinking of emigrating alone at night?

    I hope your experience is bright
    Tiring. Back to work now as well which is tough to leave behind wife and baby at home and traipse into the office twice a week.

    She's a pretty chill baby, eat, sleep, shit repeat.

    I'm averaging about 4 or 5 hours of sleep at the moment which is very draining having to work as well. I'm sure I'll get used to it though.
    Mate, it’s fucking tough. Sympathies

    At one point (month 3?) we could only get my eldest to sleep if I - literally - balanced her on my chest. Where she would slumber happily. I imagine my heartbeat was soothing and sounded womblike and maternal. Her mum could not do it because nipples, breastfeeding etc

    But of course with my tiny daughter on my chest that meant I could not sleep at all. I had to lie there, motionless, and rigid. I got about 3 hours a night for a while

    So grim! And the lack of sleep somehow builds up, like a toxin in the ecosystem. In the end I lapsed into a paternal post natal depression (it happens to 1 in 10 apparently). Luckily it was very short lived. A few weeks if that. But nasty

    Remember to self care! Dads are often neglected and ignored, and then Dads feel guilty for feeling like shit

    Yes, I remember those days. I would literally walk in a circle around our lounge for two, three hours at 3am, because that was the only way to settle our son. At 5am he'd finally drift off, and I'd try and grab 90 more minutes before work.
    Rachel Cusk (a really annoying ex girlfriend of mine) writes about this with lucid brilliance in A Life’s Work

    She’s talking with total honesty about early motherhood, but a surprising amount can be applied to early fatherhood. Plus some extra neuroses that come with being Paterfamilias

    it’s all worth it, of course, but that’s probably because humans are very good at blotting out miserable suffering and remembering the good stuff
    My wife and I left it too late to have children. Unfortunately we went ahead and had them anyway.
    Lol yes. The problem with having kids later is that you only realise when you’ve had them exactly why you should have had them younger

    My god, my poor KNEES
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,525
    Leon said:

    https://twitter.com/OprosUK/status/1535281899811250176

    Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 36% (-3) CON: 32% (+1) LDM: 12% (=) GRN: 7% (+1) REF: 4% (=) via @YouGov , 1-3 Jun (Changes with 25 May)

    That’s….. remarkable. Surely an outlier
    And a week old. Odd, in our frenetic landscape.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,256

    Unpopular said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Johnson can’t afford to be outflanked by Truss. The same old dynamic. https://twitter.com/mij_europe/status/1535258941520855048

    Good. About time to blow the bloody doors off. Hopefully the Bill invokes Article 16 so its legal.
    She's going to drive us over a cliff edge?
    I hope so.
    This is risky for the Tories. In 2020, if the EU responded harshly, and the economic situation worsened then I think the Tories could have gotten away with it by blaming the EU and banging a red, white and blue drum. I think now the electorate are much less forgiving of Boris's, and by extension the Government's, pissing around. If they take action that can be pointed to as worsening the economic situation then they are going to be fucked harder and angrier than a step-Turkish conscript looking to dodge the draft. On PornHub.
    The EU are an empty suit bluffing, they aren't going to erect a hard border in Ireland and neither are we, so Invoke A16, unilaterally fix the problems, and then the issue is resolved and over. There'll be no need or requirement for any more actions to "preserve the Good Friday Agreement" then because it will have been preserved as there'll be no hard border anywhere.

    But if you wanted co-ordinated cynical politics if it were me I'd have Truss push her hard bill for Northern Ireland, and in a completely unrelated move have Sunak suspend fuel duty for the duration of the war until fuel prices come down, ending the worst of inflation and thus meaning that the triple lock doesn't raise pensions by too much etc

    See how much voters are bothered by the EU's threats when fuel is £1.20 a litre.
    The impact on inflation of fuel duty will be less than you expect

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/news/statementsandletters/impactofchangesinindirecttaxesontheconsumerpriceindexaugust2020
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    Leon said:

    https://twitter.com/OprosUK/status/1535281899811250176

    Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 36% (-3) CON: 32% (+1) LDM: 12% (=) GRN: 7% (+1) REF: 4% (=) via @YouGov , 1-3 Jun (Changes with 25 May)

    That’s….. remarkable. Surely an outlier
    That must be the lowest Lab+Con total for years.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    Applicant said:

    EPG said:

    Applicant said:

    Roger said:

    Priti Patel found to be lying again.

    She's a serial liar as is her boss.

    Is there really nothing anyone can do about these people?

    Labour’s job is to give us an alternative that's worth voting for.
    It's to give around half of people that alternative, because the other half of people will never consider voting for them.
    Nowhere near that high, I suspect. I feel it's more like 20% will always vote Labour no matter what and 20% will always vote Tory no matter what. So Labour need to get 20-25 of the remaining 60.
    A very large share of people who get annoyed at Conservatives will happily vote LD to kick them but won't consider Labour, even when Labour are in second place.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    My electric up 17% next month says an email.

    This is a non capped company so an indication of what is coming for the capped.

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Right on cue...




    Prof. Christina Pagel 🇺🇦
    @chrischirp
    🧵THREAD: a new wave has started in England (and likely about to or has in rest of UK)

    TLDR: this will be 3rd wave within 6 months. Long covid an increasing issue - particularly in overexposed professions.

    We don't need a UK ventilator challenge we need a ventilation one!

    https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1535280913415913477

    South Africas BA4/5 wave was a whimper, hopefully given its summer here we follow suit.
    Zero chance of any restrictions in England anyway, and highly unlikely we get anywhere hear the other Omicron peaks.
    Feigl-Ding should be proclaiming maximum ultra death soon though and Pagel will always post hyperbolic doomery for clicks
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,913
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    https://twitter.com/OprosUK/status/1535281899811250176

    Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 36% (-3) CON: 32% (+1) LDM: 12% (=) GRN: 7% (+1) REF: 4% (=) via @YouGov , 1-3 Jun (Changes with 25 May)

    That’s….. remarkable. Surely an outlier
    That must be the lowest Lab+Con total for years.
    But only 2% down on the previous poll.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,139
    edited June 2022
    To wrap up my Turkiye coverage for the week :

    "While repeating Turkey's blockage of Sweden and Finland's NATO bid today, Turkish President Erdogan lamented Turkey's loss of territories during the transition from Ottoman era to Turkish state, accused the West of not keeping promises, and claimed the Western order is collapsing."
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Leon said:

    https://twitter.com/OprosUK/status/1535281899811250176

    Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 36% (-3) CON: 32% (+1) LDM: 12% (=) GRN: 7% (+1) REF: 4% (=) via @YouGov , 1-3 Jun (Changes with 25 May)

    That’s….. remarkable. Surely an outlier
    Yougovs random number generator. Up and down like an elevator. Old fieldwork too
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Roger said:

    Priti Patel found to be lying again.

    She's a serial liar as is her boss.

    Is there really nothing anyone can do about these people?

    Labour’s job is to give us an alternative that's worth voting for.
    How's that going?
    Indeed.

    Earlier this week I assessed their policy offer as 4/10.
    I sense no policy hunger whatsoever. Where are the debates? Where are the hot houses and think tanks and endless conferences discussing a new way forward? Where are the public intellectuals arguing over a new direction?

    It is tumble weed.

    At least Ed Miliband seemed to spend some time discussing what they would actually do under a Lab government with people like Marc Stears.

    No wonder Blair has stepped in with his new 'teal' grouping.



  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,820
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    https://twitter.com/OprosUK/status/1535281899811250176

    Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 36% (-3) CON: 32% (+1) LDM: 12% (=) GRN: 7% (+1) REF: 4% (=) via @YouGov , 1-3 Jun (Changes with 25 May)

    That’s….. remarkable. Surely an outlier
    That must be the lowest Lab+Con total for years.
    And its still more than either of them deserve.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Applicant said:

    MaxPB said:

    Applicant said:

    MaxPB said:

    Also the major criticism of UEFA for the ticket fiasco and the reason there were so many fakes floating around is because there was no security hologram this time around, that allowed fans to basically just print off their own using colour laser printers and perforated card. Tickets that are easy to forge is, IMO, inviting trouble.

    Wait, what? The last football game I went to was a National League game in April and the tickets for that had a hologram!
    They didn't, see here:



    The ticket on the left is real.
    That's utterly astonishing. Not even on the reverse? (I can't immediately find any pictures of the reverse online)
    Nah, no hologram at all. It made all the tickets very easy to fake. UEFA blamed the teams for insisting on paper tickets at first, as usual they're never responsible for their fuck ups, but the lack of the hologram is now being touted as the reason 5x as many fakes as they would normally see at a match like this were floating around.
    And the QR code?
    But that requires someone to actually scan them which is done at the entry gate not at the outer cordon.

    I'm not sure how many big football matches you've been to, I've been to a few and there's always an outer cordon where ticket holders have their tickets checked by eye and then the inside that it's ticket holders only. The reason the holograms exist on these kinds of tickets is to help the stewards at the outer cordon who don't have scanners to easily spot people with fakes.

    By not having the hologram UEFA took away this security layer and unsurprisingly a bunch of shysters with reasonably decent fake tickets were selling them just outside the outer cordon and some fans attempted to print their own. They got past the outer cordon easily and that's why there were all of these issues at the entry gates with people who had either been conned or were trying to con their way into the game making it impossible for legitimate ticket holders to get in.

    It was a UEFA fuck up and it looks as though the head of UEFA just got his gym buddy to take over as head of security despite being a complete novice and unsuitable for the job.
    I read that about UEFA, Two Slovenians eh. What are the odds

    Football is so fucked administratively. I guess it successfully generates so much money people don’t care about the governance - until something like this

    A bit like China, before Zero Covid
    Indeed and event security is probably the most critical bit of hosting a final. He's fucked up the Euro final in Wembley, the Europa League final this year and the Champions League final as well. Horrible record.
    So before long he's gonna be Boris Johnson's new Chancellor of the Exchequer? OR will he be Minister for Sport?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Applicant said:

    MaxPB said:

    Applicant said:

    MaxPB said:

    Also the major criticism of UEFA for the ticket fiasco and the reason there were so many fakes floating around is because there was no security hologram this time around, that allowed fans to basically just print off their own using colour laser printers and perforated card. Tickets that are easy to forge is, IMO, inviting trouble.

    Wait, what? The last football game I went to was a National League game in April and the tickets for that had a hologram!
    They didn't, see here:



    The ticket on the left is real.
    That's utterly astonishing. Not even on the reverse? (I can't immediately find any pictures of the reverse online)
    Nah, no hologram at all. It made all the tickets very easy to fake. UEFA blamed the teams for insisting on paper tickets at first, as usual they're never responsible for their fuck ups, but the lack of the hologram is now being touted as the reason 5x as many fakes as they would normally see at a match like this were floating around.
    And the QR code?
    But that requires someone to actually scan them which is done at the entry gate not at the outer cordon.

    I'm not sure how many big football matches you've been to, I've been to a few and there's always an outer cordon where ticket holders have their tickets checked by eye and then the inside that it's ticket holders only. The reason the holograms exist on these kinds of tickets is to help the stewards at the outer cordon who don't have scanners to easily spot people with fakes.

    By not having the hologram UEFA took away this security layer and unsurprisingly a bunch of shysters with reasonably decent fake tickets were selling them just outside the outer cordon and some fans attempted to print their own. They got past the outer cordon easily and that's why there were all of these issues at the entry gates with people who had either been conned or were trying to con their way into the game making it impossible for legitimate ticket holders to get in.

    It was a UEFA fuck up and it looks as though the head of UEFA just got his gym buddy to take over as head of security despite being a complete novice and unsuitable for the job.
    I read that about UEFA, Two Slovenians eh. What are the odds

    Football is so fucked administratively. I guess it successfully generates so much money people don’t care about the governance - until something like this

    A bit like China, before Zero Covid
    Indeed and event security is probably the most critical bit of hosting a final. He's fucked up the Euro final in Wembley, the Europa League final this year and the Champions League final as well. Horrible record.
    More importantly, how is New Fatherhood? Are you sleeping? Covered in vom? Still elated? Depressed? Thinking of emigrating alone at night?

    I hope your experience is bright
    Tiring. Back to work now as well which is tough to leave behind wife and baby at home and traipse into the office twice a week.

    She's a pretty chill baby, eat, sleep, shit repeat.

    I'm averaging about 4 or 5 hours of sleep at the moment which is very draining having to work as well. I'm sure I'll get used to it though.
    Mate, it’s fucking tough. Sympathies

    At one point (month 3?) we could only get my eldest to sleep if I - literally - balanced her on my chest. Where she would slumber happily. I imagine my heartbeat was soothing and sounded womblike and maternal. Her mum could not do it because nipples, breastfeeding etc

    But of course with my tiny daughter on my chest that meant I could not sleep at all. I had to lie there, motionless, and rigid. I got about 3 hours a night for a while

    So grim! And the lack of sleep somehow builds up, like a toxin in the ecosystem. In the end I lapsed into a paternal post natal depression (it happens to 1 in 10 apparently). Luckily it was very short lived. A few weeks if that. But nasty

    Remember to self care! Dads are often neglected and ignored, and then Dads feel guilty for feeling like shit

    Yes, I remember those days. I would literally walk in a circle around our lounge for two, three hours at 3am, because that was the only way to settle our son. At 5am he'd finally drift off, and I'd try and grab 90 more minutes before work.
    Rachel Cusk (a really annoying ex girlfriend of mine) writes about this with lucid brilliance in A Life’s Work

    She’s talking with total honesty about early motherhood, but a surprising amount can be applied to early fatherhood. Plus some extra neuroses that come with being Paterfamilias

    it’s all worth it, of course, but that’s probably because humans are very good at blotting out miserable suffering and remembering the good stuff
    My wife and I left it too late to have children. Unfortunately we went ahead and had them anyway.
    I was 30 when I had Fox jr1 and 36 when Fox jr2, and definitely those 6 years make a big difference when coping with sleepless nights.

    Fortunately the second was an easy baby. I remember Mrs Foxy asking after a fortnight "do you think he is alright? He never cries".

    I have a theory that second babies are usually easier, because they don't pick up on parental anxiety so much. If a first baby sneezes, the parents hover over them, when a later child does the same, the parents hardly notice, and let them get back to sleep.

    The most remarkable thing that I found though is how little they change. That personality is there from day one.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,300
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Applicant said:

    MaxPB said:

    Applicant said:

    MaxPB said:

    Also the major criticism of UEFA for the ticket fiasco and the reason there were so many fakes floating around is because there was no security hologram this time around, that allowed fans to basically just print off their own using colour laser printers and perforated card. Tickets that are easy to forge is, IMO, inviting trouble.

    Wait, what? The last football game I went to was a National League game in April and the tickets for that had a hologram!
    They didn't, see here:



    The ticket on the left is real.
    That's utterly astonishing. Not even on the reverse? (I can't immediately find any pictures of the reverse online)
    Nah, no hologram at all. It made all the tickets very easy to fake. UEFA blamed the teams for insisting on paper tickets at first, as usual they're never responsible for their fuck ups, but the lack of the hologram is now being touted as the reason 5x as many fakes as they would normally see at a match like this were floating around.
    And the QR code?
    But that requires someone to actually scan them which is done at the entry gate not at the outer cordon.

    I'm not sure how many big football matches you've been to, I've been to a few and there's always an outer cordon where ticket holders have their tickets checked by eye and then the inside that it's ticket holders only. The reason the holograms exist on these kinds of tickets is to help the stewards at the outer cordon who don't have scanners to easily spot people with fakes.

    By not having the hologram UEFA took away this security layer and unsurprisingly a bunch of shysters with reasonably decent fake tickets were selling them just outside the outer cordon and some fans attempted to print their own. They got past the outer cordon easily and that's why there were all of these issues at the entry gates with people who had either been conned or were trying to con their way into the game making it impossible for legitimate ticket holders to get in.

    It was a UEFA fuck up and it looks as though the head of UEFA just got his gym buddy to take over as head of security despite being a complete novice and unsuitable for the job.
    I read that about UEFA, Two Slovenians eh. What are the odds

    Football is so fucked administratively. I guess it successfully generates so much money people don’t care about the governance - until something like this

    A bit like China, before Zero Covid
    Indeed and event security is probably the most critical bit of hosting a final. He's fucked up the Euro final in Wembley, the Europa League final this year and the Champions League final as well. Horrible record.
    More importantly, how is New Fatherhood? Are you sleeping? Covered in vom? Still elated? Depressed? Thinking of emigrating alone at night?

    I hope your experience is bright
    Tiring. Back to work now as well which is tough to leave behind wife and baby at home and traipse into the office twice a week.

    She's a pretty chill baby, eat, sleep, shit repeat.

    I'm averaging about 4 or 5 hours of sleep at the moment which is very draining having to work as well. I'm sure I'll get used to it though.
    Mate, it’s fucking tough. Sympathies

    At one point (month 3?) we could only get my eldest to sleep if I - literally - balanced her on my chest. Where she would slumber happily. I imagine my heartbeat was soothing and sounded womblike and maternal. Her mum could not do it because nipples, breastfeeding etc

    But of course with my tiny daughter on my chest that meant I could not sleep at all. I had to lie there, motionless, and rigid. I got about 3 hours a night for a while

    So grim! And the lack of sleep somehow builds up, like a toxin in the ecosystem. In the end I lapsed into a paternal post natal depression (it happens to 1 in 10 apparently). Luckily it was very short lived. A few weeks if that. But nasty

    Remember to self care! Dads are often neglected and ignored, and then Dads feel guilty for feeling like shit

    Yes, I remember those days. I would literally walk in a circle around our lounge for two, three hours at 3am, because that was the only way to settle our son. At 5am he'd finally drift off, and I'd try and grab 90 more minutes before work.
    Our first son was an amazingly chilled baby, just feed and slept, sleeping through the night by week 6/7, so when son No2 arrived and didn't sleep for the first eight weeks it was a hell of a shock and we were constantly shattered. Only time he did sleep at night is when Fitaloon took him for a drive, he would literally fall a sleep the minute the car started and then wake up crying the moment it stopped back at the house.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    edited June 2022

    Right on cue...




    Prof. Christina Pagel 🇺🇦
    @chrischirp
    🧵THREAD: a new wave has started in England (and likely about to or has in rest of UK)

    TLDR: this will be 3rd wave within 6 months. Long covid an increasing issue - particularly in overexposed professions.

    We don't need a UK ventilator challenge we need a ventilation one!

    https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1535280913415913477

    South Africas BA4/5 wave was a whimper, hopefully given its summer here we follow suit.
    Zero chance of any restrictions in England anyway, and highly unlikely we get anywhere hear the other Omicron peaks.
    Feigl-Ding should be proclaiming maximum ultra death soon though and Pagel will always post hyperbolic doomery for clicks
    The day that Johnson stands at that podium again and implores us to 'stay at home and save lives' and 'you must not socialise' will be the day that entire population dies laughing whilst jabbing two fingers at the tv.

  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Leon said:

    https://twitter.com/OprosUK/status/1535281899811250176

    Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 36% (-3) CON: 32% (+1) LDM: 12% (=) GRN: 7% (+1) REF: 4% (=) via @YouGov , 1-3 Jun (Changes with 25 May)

    That’s….. remarkable. Surely an outlier
    I think we need a comment from @bigjohnowls
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,913

    https://twitter.com/OprosUK/status/1535281899811250176

    Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 36% (-3) CON: 32% (+1) LDM: 12% (=) GRN: 7% (+1) REF: 4% (=) via @YouGov , 1-3 Jun (Changes with 25 May)

    Where is the missing 9%?
    Don't knows?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,896

    My electric up 17% next month says an email.

    This is a non capped company so an indication of what is coming for the capped.

    I panicked a couple of days ago and switched from the cheapest but uncapped tariff to a capped one.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Applicant said:

    MaxPB said:

    Applicant said:

    MaxPB said:

    Also the major criticism of UEFA for the ticket fiasco and the reason there were so many fakes floating around is because there was no security hologram this time around, that allowed fans to basically just print off their own using colour laser printers and perforated card. Tickets that are easy to forge is, IMO, inviting trouble.

    Wait, what? The last football game I went to was a National League game in April and the tickets for that had a hologram!
    They didn't, see here:



    The ticket on the left is real.
    That's utterly astonishing. Not even on the reverse? (I can't immediately find any pictures of the reverse online)
    Nah, no hologram at all. It made all the tickets very easy to fake. UEFA blamed the teams for insisting on paper tickets at first, as usual they're never responsible for their fuck ups, but the lack of the hologram is now being touted as the reason 5x as many fakes as they would normally see at a match like this were floating around.
    And the QR code?
    But that requires someone to actually scan them which is done at the entry gate not at the outer cordon.

    I'm not sure how many big football matches you've been to, I've been to a few and there's always an outer cordon where ticket holders have their tickets checked by eye and then the inside that it's ticket holders only. The reason the holograms exist on these kinds of tickets is to help the stewards at the outer cordon who don't have scanners to easily spot people with fakes.

    By not having the hologram UEFA took away this security layer and unsurprisingly a bunch of shysters with reasonably decent fake tickets were selling them just outside the outer cordon and some fans attempted to print their own. They got past the outer cordon easily and that's why there were all of these issues at the entry gates with people who had either been conned or were trying to con their way into the game making it impossible for legitimate ticket holders to get in.

    It was a UEFA fuck up and it looks as though the head of UEFA just got his gym buddy to take over as head of security despite being a complete novice and unsuitable for the job.
    I read that about UEFA, Two Slovenians eh. What are the odds

    Football is so fucked administratively. I guess it successfully generates so much money people don’t care about the governance - until something like this

    A bit like China, before Zero Covid
    Indeed and event security is probably the most critical bit of hosting a final. He's fucked up the Euro final in Wembley, the Europa League final this year and the Champions League final as well. Horrible record.
    More importantly, how is New Fatherhood? Are you sleeping? Covered in vom? Still elated? Depressed? Thinking of emigrating alone at night?

    I hope your experience is bright
    Tiring. Back to work now as well which is tough to leave behind wife and baby at home and traipse into the office twice a week.

    She's a pretty chill baby, eat, sleep, shit repeat.

    I'm averaging about 4 or 5 hours of sleep at the moment which is very draining having to work as well. I'm sure I'll get used to it though.
    Mate, it’s fucking tough. Sympathies

    At one point (month 3?) we could only get my eldest to sleep if I - literally - balanced her on my chest. Where she would slumber happily. I imagine my heartbeat was soothing and sounded womblike and maternal. Her mum could not do it because nipples, breastfeeding etc

    But of course with my tiny daughter on my chest that meant I could not sleep at all. I had to lie there, motionless, and rigid. I got about 3 hours a night for a while

    So grim! And the lack of sleep somehow builds up, like a toxin in the ecosystem. In the end I lapsed into a paternal post natal depression (it happens to 1 in 10 apparently). Luckily it was very short lived. A few weeks if that. But nasty

    Remember to self care! Dads are often neglected and ignored, and then Dads feel guilty for feeling like shit

    Yes, I remember those days. I would literally walk in a circle around our lounge for two, three hours at 3am, because that was the only way to settle our son. At 5am he'd finally drift off, and I'd try and grab 90 more minutes before work.
    Rachel Cusk (a really annoying ex girlfriend of mine) writes about this with lucid brilliance in A Life’s Work

    She’s talking with total honesty about early motherhood, but a surprising amount can be applied to early fatherhood. Plus some extra neuroses that come with being Paterfamilias

    it’s all worth it, of course, but that’s probably because humans are very good at blotting out miserable suffering and remembering the good stuff
    My wife and I left it too late to have children. Unfortunately we went ahead and had them anyway.
    I was 30 when I had Fox jr1 and 36 when Fox jr2, and definitely those 6 years make a big difference when coping with sleepless nights.

    Fortunately the second was an easy baby. I remember Mrs Foxy asking after a fortnight "do you think he is alright? He never cries".

    I have a theory that second babies are usually easier, because they don't pick up on parental anxiety so much. If a first baby sneezes, the parents hover over them, when a later child does the same, the parents hardly notice, and let them get back to sleep.

    The most remarkable thing that I found though is how little they change. That personality is there from day one.
    That’s interesting, because I’ve heard the opposite - that second kids are worse. Certainly true with my sister’s two.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    edited June 2022

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Applicant said:

    MaxPB said:

    Applicant said:

    MaxPB said:

    Also the major criticism of UEFA for the ticket fiasco and the reason there were so many fakes floating around is because there was no security hologram this time around, that allowed fans to basically just print off their own using colour laser printers and perforated card. Tickets that are easy to forge is, IMO, inviting trouble.

    Wait, what? The last football game I went to was a National League game in April and the tickets for that had a hologram!
    They didn't, see here:



    The ticket on the left is real.
    That's utterly astonishing. Not even on the reverse? (I can't immediately find any pictures of the reverse online)
    Nah, no hologram at all. It made all the tickets very easy to fake. UEFA blamed the teams for insisting on paper tickets at first, as usual they're never responsible for their fuck ups, but the lack of the hologram is now being touted as the reason 5x as many fakes as they would normally see at a match like this were floating around.
    And the QR code?
    But that requires someone to actually scan them which is done at the entry gate not at the outer cordon.

    I'm not sure how many big football matches you've been to, I've been to a few and there's always an outer cordon where ticket holders have their tickets checked by eye and then the inside that it's ticket holders only. The reason the holograms exist on these kinds of tickets is to help the stewards at the outer cordon who don't have scanners to easily spot people with fakes.

    By not having the hologram UEFA took away this security layer and unsurprisingly a bunch of shysters with reasonably decent fake tickets were selling them just outside the outer cordon and some fans attempted to print their own. They got past the outer cordon easily and that's why there were all of these issues at the entry gates with people who had either been conned or were trying to con their way into the game making it impossible for legitimate ticket holders to get in.

    It was a UEFA fuck up and it looks as though the head of UEFA just got his gym buddy to take over as head of security despite being a complete novice and unsuitable for the job.
    I read that about UEFA, Two Slovenians eh. What are the odds

    Football is so fucked administratively. I guess it successfully generates so much money people don’t care about the governance - until something like this

    A bit like China, before Zero Covid
    Indeed and event security is probably the most critical bit of hosting a final. He's fucked up the Euro final in Wembley, the Europa League final this year and the Champions League final as well. Horrible record.
    So before long he's gonna be Boris Johnson's new Chancellor of the Exchequer? OR will he be Minister for Sport?
    Pleeease. Don't give them ideas.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited June 2022

    https://twitter.com/OprosUK/status/1535281899811250176

    Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 36% (-3) CON: 32% (+1) LDM: 12% (=) GRN: 7% (+1) REF: 4% (=) via @YouGov , 1-3 Jun (Changes with 25 May)

    Where is the missing 9%?
    Don't knows?
    Probably 5% SNP, 1% PC, 1% 'other' and roundings
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,820
    fitalass said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Applicant said:

    MaxPB said:

    Applicant said:

    MaxPB said:

    Also the major criticism of UEFA for the ticket fiasco and the reason there were so many fakes floating around is because there was no security hologram this time around, that allowed fans to basically just print off their own using colour laser printers and perforated card. Tickets that are easy to forge is, IMO, inviting trouble.

    Wait, what? The last football game I went to was a National League game in April and the tickets for that had a hologram!
    They didn't, see here:



    The ticket on the left is real.
    That's utterly astonishing. Not even on the reverse? (I can't immediately find any pictures of the reverse online)
    Nah, no hologram at all. It made all the tickets very easy to fake. UEFA blamed the teams for insisting on paper tickets at first, as usual they're never responsible for their fuck ups, but the lack of the hologram is now being touted as the reason 5x as many fakes as they would normally see at a match like this were floating around.
    And the QR code?
    But that requires someone to actually scan them which is done at the entry gate not at the outer cordon.

    I'm not sure how many big football matches you've been to, I've been to a few and there's always an outer cordon where ticket holders have their tickets checked by eye and then the inside that it's ticket holders only. The reason the holograms exist on these kinds of tickets is to help the stewards at the outer cordon who don't have scanners to easily spot people with fakes.

    By not having the hologram UEFA took away this security layer and unsurprisingly a bunch of shysters with reasonably decent fake tickets were selling them just outside the outer cordon and some fans attempted to print their own. They got past the outer cordon easily and that's why there were all of these issues at the entry gates with people who had either been conned or were trying to con their way into the game making it impossible for legitimate ticket holders to get in.

    It was a UEFA fuck up and it looks as though the head of UEFA just got his gym buddy to take over as head of security despite being a complete novice and unsuitable for the job.
    I read that about UEFA, Two Slovenians eh. What are the odds

    Football is so fucked administratively. I guess it successfully generates so much money people don’t care about the governance - until something like this

    A bit like China, before Zero Covid
    Indeed and event security is probably the most critical bit of hosting a final. He's fucked up the Euro final in Wembley, the Europa League final this year and the Champions League final as well. Horrible record.
    More importantly, how is New Fatherhood? Are you sleeping? Covered in vom? Still elated? Depressed? Thinking of emigrating alone at night?

    I hope your experience is bright
    Tiring. Back to work now as well which is tough to leave behind wife and baby at home and traipse into the office twice a week.

    She's a pretty chill baby, eat, sleep, shit repeat.

    I'm averaging about 4 or 5 hours of sleep at the moment which is very draining having to work as well. I'm sure I'll get used to it though.
    Mate, it’s fucking tough. Sympathies

    At one point (month 3?) we could only get my eldest to sleep if I - literally - balanced her on my chest. Where she would slumber happily. I imagine my heartbeat was soothing and sounded womblike and maternal. Her mum could not do it because nipples, breastfeeding etc

    But of course with my tiny daughter on my chest that meant I could not sleep at all. I had to lie there, motionless, and rigid. I got about 3 hours a night for a while

    So grim! And the lack of sleep somehow builds up, like a toxin in the ecosystem. In the end I lapsed into a paternal post natal depression (it happens to 1 in 10 apparently). Luckily it was very short lived. A few weeks if that. But nasty

    Remember to self care! Dads are often neglected and ignored, and then Dads feel guilty for feeling like shit

    Yes, I remember those days. I would literally walk in a circle around our lounge for two, three hours at 3am, because that was the only way to settle our son. At 5am he'd finally drift off, and I'd try and grab 90 more minutes before work.
    Our first son was an amazingly chilled baby, just feed and slept, sleeping through the night by week 6/7, so when son No2 arrived and didn't sleep for the first eight weeks it was a hell of a shock and we were constantly shattered. Only time he did sleep at night is when Fitaloon took him for a drive, he would literally fall a sleep the minute the car started and then wake up crying the moment it stopped back at the house.
    Absolutely. My middle child's first sentence, and she was an early speaker, was "I do it myself". She's now 25 and not changed a bit.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    edited June 2022
    fitalass said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Applicant said:

    MaxPB said:

    Applicant said:

    MaxPB said:

    Also the major criticism of UEFA for the ticket fiasco and the reason there were so many fakes floating around is because there was no security hologram this time around, that allowed fans to basically just print off their own using colour laser printers and perforated card. Tickets that are easy to forge is, IMO, inviting trouble.

    Wait, what? The last football game I went to was a National League game in April and the tickets for that had a hologram!
    They didn't, see here:



    The ticket on the left is real.
    That's utterly astonishing. Not even on the reverse? (I can't immediately find any pictures of the reverse online)
    Nah, no hologram at all. It made all the tickets very easy to fake. UEFA blamed the teams for insisting on paper tickets at first, as usual they're never responsible for their fuck ups, but the lack of the hologram is now being touted as the reason 5x as many fakes as they would normally see at a match like this were floating around.
    And the QR code?
    But that requires someone to actually scan them which is done at the entry gate not at the outer cordon.

    I'm not sure how many big football matches you've been to, I've been to a few and there's always an outer cordon where ticket holders have their tickets checked by eye and then the inside that it's ticket holders only. The reason the holograms exist on these kinds of tickets is to help the stewards at the outer cordon who don't have scanners to easily spot people with fakes.

    By not having the hologram UEFA took away this security layer and unsurprisingly a bunch of shysters with reasonably decent fake tickets were selling them just outside the outer cordon and some fans attempted to print their own. They got past the outer cordon easily and that's why there were all of these issues at the entry gates with people who had either been conned or were trying to con their way into the game making it impossible for legitimate ticket holders to get in.

    It was a UEFA fuck up and it looks as though the head of UEFA just got his gym buddy to take over as head of security despite being a complete novice and unsuitable for the job.
    I read that about UEFA, Two Slovenians eh. What are the odds

    Football is so fucked administratively. I guess it successfully generates so much money people don’t care about the governance - until something like this

    A bit like China, before Zero Covid
    Indeed and event security is probably the most critical bit of hosting a final. He's fucked up the Euro final in Wembley, the Europa League final this year and the Champions League final as well. Horrible record.
    More importantly, how is New Fatherhood? Are you sleeping? Covered in vom? Still elated? Depressed? Thinking of emigrating alone at night?

    I hope your experience is bright
    Tiring. Back to work now as well which is tough to leave behind wife and baby at home and traipse into the office twice a week.

    She's a pretty chill baby, eat, sleep, shit repeat.

    I'm averaging about 4 or 5 hours of sleep at the moment which is very draining having to work as well. I'm sure I'll get used to it though.
    Mate, it’s fucking tough. Sympathies

    At one point (month 3?) we could only get my eldest to sleep if I - literally - balanced her on my chest. Where she would slumber happily. I imagine my heartbeat was soothing and sounded womblike and maternal. Her mum could not do it because nipples, breastfeeding etc

    But of course with my tiny daughter on my chest that meant I could not sleep at all. I had to lie there, motionless, and rigid. I got about 3 hours a night for a while

    So grim! And the lack of sleep somehow builds up, like a toxin in the ecosystem. In the end I lapsed into a paternal post natal depression (it happens to 1 in 10 apparently). Luckily it was very short lived. A few weeks if that. But nasty

    Remember to self care! Dads are often neglected and ignored, and then Dads feel guilty for feeling like shit

    Yes, I remember those days. I would literally walk in a circle around our lounge for two, three hours at 3am, because that was the only way to settle our son. At 5am he'd finally drift off, and I'd try and grab 90 more minutes before work.
    Our first son was an amazingly chilled baby, just feed and slept, sleeping through the night by week 6/7, so when son No2 arrived and didn't sleep for the first eight weeks it was a hell of a shock and we were constantly shattered. Only time he did sleep at night is when Fitaloon took him for a drive, he would literally fall a sleep the minute the car started and then wake up crying the moment it stopped back at the house.
    I’ve heard the driving thing before

    For my eldest, a hoover sometimes did the trick. She would not sleep, but turn on the hoover, bingo. For others it is the washing machine

    The supposed reason - which you surely know - is that the multifrequency white noise whoosh of all these things successfully imitates the sound in the womb, the rush of amniotic fluid, the heartbeat

    Even as adults we can be seduced by this, hence reports of people sleeping brilliantly on overnight trains, with their clacketty clack rhythmic movement and noise….
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Applicant said:

    MaxPB said:

    Applicant said:

    MaxPB said:

    Also the major criticism of UEFA for the ticket fiasco and the reason there were so many fakes floating around is because there was no security hologram this time around, that allowed fans to basically just print off their own using colour laser printers and perforated card. Tickets that are easy to forge is, IMO, inviting trouble.

    Wait, what? The last football game I went to was a National League game in April and the tickets for that had a hologram!
    They didn't, see here:



    The ticket on the left is real.
    That's utterly astonishing. Not even on the reverse? (I can't immediately find any pictures of the reverse online)
    Nah, no hologram at all. It made all the tickets very easy to fake. UEFA blamed the teams for insisting on paper tickets at first, as usual they're never responsible for their fuck ups, but the lack of the hologram is now being touted as the reason 5x as many fakes as they would normally see at a match like this were floating around.
    And the QR code?
    But that requires someone to actually scan them which is done at the entry gate not at the outer cordon.

    I'm not sure how many big football matches you've been to, I've been to a few and there's always an outer cordon where ticket holders have their tickets checked by eye and then the inside that it's ticket holders only. The reason the holograms exist on these kinds of tickets is to help the stewards at the outer cordon who don't have scanners to easily spot people with fakes.

    By not having the hologram UEFA took away this security layer and unsurprisingly a bunch of shysters with reasonably decent fake tickets were selling them just outside the outer cordon and some fans attempted to print their own. They got past the outer cordon easily and that's why there were all of these issues at the entry gates with people who had either been conned or were trying to con their way into the game making it impossible for legitimate ticket holders to get in.

    It was a UEFA fuck up and it looks as though the head of UEFA just got his gym buddy to take over as head of security despite being a complete novice and unsuitable for the job.
    I read that about UEFA, Two Slovenians eh. What are the odds

    Football is so fucked administratively. I guess it successfully generates so much money people don’t care about the governance - until something like this

    A bit like China, before Zero Covid
    Indeed and event security is probably the most critical bit of hosting a final. He's fucked up the Euro final in Wembley, the Europa League final this year and the Champions League final as well. Horrible record.
    More importantly, how is New Fatherhood? Are you sleeping? Covered in vom? Still elated? Depressed? Thinking of emigrating alone at night?

    I hope your experience is bright
    Tiring. Back to work now as well which is tough to leave behind wife and baby at home and traipse into the office twice a week.

    She's a pretty chill baby, eat, sleep, shit repeat.

    I'm averaging about 4 or 5 hours of sleep at the moment which is very draining having to work as well. I'm sure I'll get used to it though.
    Mate, it’s fucking tough. Sympathies

    At one point (month 3?) we could only get my eldest to sleep if I - literally - balanced her on my chest. Where she would slumber happily. I imagine my heartbeat was soothing and sounded womblike and maternal. Her mum could not do it because nipples, breastfeeding etc

    But of course with my tiny daughter on my chest that meant I could not sleep at all. I had to lie there, motionless, and rigid. I got about 3 hours a night for a while

    So grim! And the lack of sleep somehow builds up, like a toxin in the ecosystem. In the end I lapsed into a paternal post natal depression (it happens to 1 in 10 apparently). Luckily it was very short lived. A few weeks if that. But nasty

    Remember to self care! Dads are often neglected and ignored, and then Dads feel guilty for feeling like shit

    Yes, I remember those days. I would literally walk in a circle around our lounge for two, three hours at 3am, because that was the only way to settle our son. At 5am he'd finally drift off, and I'd try and grab 90 more minutes before work.
    Rachel Cusk (a really annoying ex girlfriend of mine) writes about this with lucid brilliance in A Life’s Work

    She’s talking with total honesty about early motherhood, but a surprising amount can be applied to early fatherhood. Plus some extra neuroses that come with being Paterfamilias

    it’s all worth it, of course, but that’s probably because humans are very good at blotting out miserable suffering and remembering the good stuff
    My wife and I left it too late to have children. Unfortunately we went ahead and had them anyway.
    I was 30 when I had Fox jr1 and 36 when Fox jr2, and definitely those 6 years make a big difference when coping with sleepless nights.

    Fortunately the second was an easy baby. I remember Mrs Foxy asking after a fortnight "do you think he is alright? He never cries".

    I have a theory that second babies are usually easier, because they don't pick up on parental anxiety so much. If a first baby sneezes, the parents hover over them, when a later child does the same, the parents hardly notice, and let them get back to sleep.

    The most remarkable thing that I found though is how little they change. That personality is there from day one.
    That’s interesting, because I’ve heard the opposite - that second kids are worse. Certainly true with my sister’s two.
    I think individual variance is large. Personality is there from birth. Its luck of the draw.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Right on cue...




    Prof. Christina Pagel 🇺🇦
    @chrischirp
    🧵THREAD: a new wave has started in England (and likely about to or has in rest of UK)

    TLDR: this will be 3rd wave within 6 months. Long covid an increasing issue - particularly in overexposed professions.

    We don't need a UK ventilator challenge we need a ventilation one!

    https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1535280913415913477

    South Africas BA4/5 wave was a whimper, hopefully given its summer here we follow suit.
    Zero chance of any restrictions in England anyway, and highly unlikely we get anywhere hear the other Omicron peaks.
    Feigl-Ding should be proclaiming maximum ultra death soon though and Pagel will always post hyperbolic doomery for clicks
    The day that Johnson stands at that podium again and implores us to 'stay at home and save lives' and 'you must not socialise' will be the day that entire population dies laughing whilst jabbing two fingers at the tv.

    Indeed. Especially as they were all nonsense.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    .
    Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Alistair said:

    Huh, Covid admissions are rising.

    How about a Covid sitrep PB?

    How is it going round the world? Is it really over out there like it is here, if not why not?

    When’s the next time us 20 year olds will get vaccine?

    Could a bad variant come back to UK meaning some restrictions to save lives and protect the NHS?
    Will be publishing some stats in time for your G&T
    Jubilee super spreader event?
    New variants bouncing around.....
    BA.5 seems to be quite a problem in Portugal, which has a higher immunisation rate than us. Half of British covid is now BA.5.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/03/omicron-covid-subvariant-drives-spike-in-cases-and-deaths-in-portgual
    It's a new virus still finding its feet....

    My children both had a second round if it a couple of weeks back. 24 hours of high temp (just shy of 104F for one of them), and 10 days before a clear LFT.
    Daughter was staying with us, but we managed to avoid getting it by being very careful.
    The ten days is commonplace even when symptoms have disappeared. These days, it's symptoms that determine isolation, not testing.
    Not if you want to avoid catching it.
    A positive LFT means you are very likely still infectious, whatever the isolation rules.
    Does it?
    Yes.

    As this immunologist points out.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1533669140967350272

    There's some correlation between the speed of the test reaction (and red line thickness) and the amount of active virus present, though hard to quantify exactly, but a positive LFT necessarily means the presence of active virus.
    (Unlike PCR.)

    Important to me in this case, as I had RSC tickets...
    Why's it important to you? You have tickets, use the tickets.
    You ever been to the theatre when you had flu ?

    No, because I've never had the flu when I had theatre tickets.

    I would go. Or if I had Covid, why miss it, unless you're too sick to go?
    Because in a theatre I would be surrounded by tens of people in very close proximity to me for several hours. I wouldn't go if I had influenza (or even a heavy cold) either.

    Come to mention it, if I had syphilis (easily treated with antibiotics), I wouldn't go around having unprotected sex with people*.

    * Yes, yes, I know this relies on the unlikely scenario of lots of people wanting to have sex with me.
    Airborne viruses spread, it's what they do. So what if there's people in close proximity?

    Anyone who is immunocompromised and doesn't want to catch a virus would be wise to avoid any crowd. As far as I'm aware for healthy people catching viruses intermittently is good for the immune system and being overprotective is not. Any crowded event will inevitably have people there with airborne viruses.

    Having sex with someone when you have an STI is a very different thing to breathing.
    "Airborne viruses spread, it's what they do. So what if there's people in close proximity?"

    Ummm: all the evidence is that the likelihood of transmission is a function of proximity, time and ventilation.

    It's a matter of common courtesy to take basic precautions not to make other people sick.
    But that would violate the basic principles of libertarianism. I got into an argument with BR, or on reflection someone else using a similar approach, about this a year or two back.

    WE are not allowed to complain about him exerting his extremist libertarian rights and going out even when he is emitting viruses. Who cares if we feel shite and maybe die? "I'm all right, **** you Jack/Jill".

    I think the logical flaw is that libertarians don't take into account their effects on other people. And that people can respond differently to how they do to e.g. a virus.

    I don't think that entirely fair - it's more that they think their judgment of our wants or needs superior to our own.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    Farooq said:

    https://twitter.com/OprosUK/status/1535281899811250176

    Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 36% (-3) CON: 32% (+1) LDM: 12% (=) GRN: 7% (+1) REF: 4% (=) via @YouGov , 1-3 Jun (Changes with 25 May)

    Lab+Green 43%
    Green always seem to poll higher with yougov. Perhaps twice other polls, but I cannot see that 7% actually happening at a GE.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,587
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Applicant said:

    MaxPB said:

    Applicant said:

    MaxPB said:

    Also the major criticism of UEFA for the ticket fiasco and the reason there were so many fakes floating around is because there was no security hologram this time around, that allowed fans to basically just print off their own using colour laser printers and perforated card. Tickets that are easy to forge is, IMO, inviting trouble.

    Wait, what? The last football game I went to was a National League game in April and the tickets for that had a hologram!
    They didn't, see here:



    The ticket on the left is real.
    That's utterly astonishing. Not even on the reverse? (I can't immediately find any pictures of the reverse online)
    Nah, no hologram at all. It made all the tickets very easy to fake. UEFA blamed the teams for insisting on paper tickets at first, as usual they're never responsible for their fuck ups, but the lack of the hologram is now being touted as the reason 5x as many fakes as they would normally see at a match like this were floating around.
    And the QR code?
    But that requires someone to actually scan them which is done at the entry gate not at the outer cordon.

    I'm not sure how many big football matches you've been to, I've been to a few and there's always an outer cordon where ticket holders have their tickets checked by eye and then the inside that it's ticket holders only. The reason the holograms exist on these kinds of tickets is to help the stewards at the outer cordon who don't have scanners to easily spot people with fakes.

    By not having the hologram UEFA took away this security layer and unsurprisingly a bunch of shysters with reasonably decent fake tickets were selling them just outside the outer cordon and some fans attempted to print their own. They got past the outer cordon easily and that's why there were all of these issues at the entry gates with people who had either been conned or were trying to con their way into the game making it impossible for legitimate ticket holders to get in.

    It was a UEFA fuck up and it looks as though the head of UEFA just got his gym buddy to take over as head of security despite being a complete novice and unsuitable for the job.
    I read that about UEFA, Two Slovenians eh. What are the odds

    Football is so fucked administratively. I guess it successfully generates so much money people don’t care about the governance - until something like this

    A bit like China, before Zero Covid
    Indeed and event security is probably the most critical bit of hosting a final. He's fucked up the Euro final in Wembley, the Europa League final this year and the Champions League final as well. Horrible record.
    More importantly, how is New Fatherhood? Are you sleeping? Covered in vom? Still elated? Depressed? Thinking of emigrating alone at night?

    I hope your experience is bright
    Tiring. Back to work now as well which is tough to leave behind wife and baby at home and traipse into the office twice a week.

    She's a pretty chill baby, eat, sleep, shit repeat.

    I'm averaging about 4 or 5 hours of sleep at the moment which is very draining having to work as well. I'm sure I'll get used to it though.
    Mate, it’s fucking tough. Sympathies

    At one point (month 3?) we could only get my eldest to sleep if I - literally - balanced her on my chest. Where she would slumber happily. I imagine my heartbeat was soothing and sounded womblike and maternal. Her mum could not do it because nipples, breastfeeding etc

    But of course with my tiny daughter on my chest that meant I could not sleep at all. I had to lie there, motionless, and rigid. I got about 3 hours a night for a while

    So grim! And the lack of sleep somehow builds up, like a toxin in the ecosystem. In the end I lapsed into a paternal post natal depression (it happens to 1 in 10 apparently). Luckily it was very short lived. A few weeks if that. But nasty

    Remember to self care! Dads are often neglected and ignored, and then Dads feel guilty for feeling like shit

    Yes, I remember those days. I would literally walk in a circle around our lounge for two, three hours at 3am, because that was the only way to settle our son. At 5am he'd finally drift off, and I'd try and grab 90 more minutes before work.
    Rachel Cusk (a really annoying ex girlfriend of mine) writes about this with lucid brilliance in A Life’s Work

    She’s talking with total honesty about early motherhood, but a surprising amount can be applied to early fatherhood. Plus some extra neuroses that come with being Paterfamilias

    it’s all worth it, of course, but that’s probably because humans are very good at blotting out miserable suffering and remembering the good stuff
    My wife and I left it too late to have children. Unfortunately we went ahead and had them anyway.
    Lol yes. The problem with having kids later is that you only realise when you’ve had them exactly why you should have had them younger

    My god, my poor KNEES
    I dunno. We had our son when I was 41, and Mrs J a couple of years younger. She was classed as an 'elderly parent' or somesuch, much to her amusement.

    The way I see it, I was far more mature when we had him than I was in my twenties. I did not need to go out to the pub two or three times a week. We had a house and did not rent. We had more savings. I was a calmer, less frenetic individual.

    Best of all, many of our friends had had babies, and so gave us loads of their clobber - baby clothes, toys, etc.

    I don't play football with him, but only because he is not interested in it (yet)...

    For me personally, having a child in the late thirties / early forties was the correct time. I would not have been as good a parent if I had had a child two decades earlier.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Alistair said:

    Huh, Covid admissions are rising.

    How about a Covid sitrep PB?

    How is it going round the world? Is it really over out there like it is here, if not why not?

    When’s the next time us 20 year olds will get vaccine?

    Could a bad variant come back to UK meaning some restrictions to save lives and protect the NHS?
    Will be publishing some stats in time for your G&T
    Jubilee super spreader event?
    New variants bouncing around.....
    BA.5 seems to be quite a problem in Portugal, which has a higher immunisation rate than us. Half of British covid is now BA.5.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/03/omicron-covid-subvariant-drives-spike-in-cases-and-deaths-in-portgual
    It's a new virus still finding its feet....

    My children both had a second round if it a couple of weeks back. 24 hours of high temp (just shy of 104F for one of them), and 10 days before a clear LFT.
    Daughter was staying with us, but we managed to avoid getting it by being very careful.
    The ten days is commonplace even when symptoms have disappeared. These days, it's symptoms that determine isolation, not testing.
    Not if you want to avoid catching it.
    A positive LFT means you are very likely still infectious, whatever the isolation rules.
    Does it?
    Yes.

    As this immunologist points out.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1533669140967350272

    There's some correlation between the speed of the test reaction (and red line thickness) and the amount of active virus present, though hard to quantify exactly, but a positive LFT necessarily means the presence of active virus.
    (Unlike PCR.)

    Important to me in this case, as I had RSC tickets...
    Why's it important to you? You have tickets, use the tickets.
    You ever been to the theatre when you had flu ?

    No, because I've never had the flu when I had theatre tickets.

    I would go. Or if I had Covid, why miss it, unless you're too sick to go?
    This is the kind of logic that brought us Brexit.
    I was talking about avoiding an unpleasant experience, are you're still wondering why...
    Yes I am still wondering why. We were talking about lines on a test. ..
    Because, as I just noted, you are clueless about other people's wants.
    You might enjoy the thought of travelling three hours to watch six hours of the Henry VI plays in a single day, while running a flu type bug. But some of us would wish to avoid that.

    Fortunately my daughter is not as selfish as you.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153

    To wrap up my Turkiye coverage for the week :

    "While repeating Turkey's blockage of Sweden and Finland's NATO bid today, Turkish President Erdogan lamented Turkey's loss of territories during the transition from Ottoman era to Turkish state, accused the West of not keeping promises, and claimed the Western order is collapsing."

    If that's how they feel, then it's time for "the West" to say Goodbye to Turkey.

    No more NATO membership, no more parts for their F-16s.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,828
    I'd love to see some polling from Crimea on what the people there would like to see as their future regards Russia and Ukraine. Of course it would be very difficult to poll as people may be reluctant to give an honest answer. The assumption that it would inevitably opt for Russia strikes me as mistaken. Disillusionment was growing prior to 24 February and of course that was when the page of history turned. This is an interesting article on it although with a very small sample size of 12.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/amid-broken-ties-and-families-crimean-views-toward-russia-start-to-shift/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Applicant said:

    MaxPB said:

    Applicant said:

    MaxPB said:

    Also the major criticism of UEFA for the ticket fiasco and the reason there were so many fakes floating around is because there was no security hologram this time around, that allowed fans to basically just print off their own using colour laser printers and perforated card. Tickets that are easy to forge is, IMO, inviting trouble.

    Wait, what? The last football game I went to was a National League game in April and the tickets for that had a hologram!
    They didn't, see here:



    The ticket on the left is real.
    That's utterly astonishing. Not even on the reverse? (I can't immediately find any pictures of the reverse online)
    Nah, no hologram at all. It made all the tickets very easy to fake. UEFA blamed the teams for insisting on paper tickets at first, as usual they're never responsible for their fuck ups, but the lack of the hologram is now being touted as the reason 5x as many fakes as they would normally see at a match like this were floating around.
    And the QR code?
    But that requires someone to actually scan them which is done at the entry gate not at the outer cordon.

    I'm not sure how many big football matches you've been to, I've been to a few and there's always an outer cordon where ticket holders have their tickets checked by eye and then the inside that it's ticket holders only. The reason the holograms exist on these kinds of tickets is to help the stewards at the outer cordon who don't have scanners to easily spot people with fakes.

    By not having the hologram UEFA took away this security layer and unsurprisingly a bunch of shysters with reasonably decent fake tickets were selling them just outside the outer cordon and some fans attempted to print their own. They got past the outer cordon easily and that's why there were all of these issues at the entry gates with people who had either been conned or were trying to con their way into the game making it impossible for legitimate ticket holders to get in.

    It was a UEFA fuck up and it looks as though the head of UEFA just got his gym buddy to take over as head of security despite being a complete novice and unsuitable for the job.
    I read that about UEFA, Two Slovenians eh. What are the odds

    Football is so fucked administratively. I guess it successfully generates so much money people don’t care about the governance - until something like this

    A bit like China, before Zero Covid
    Indeed and event security is probably the most critical bit of hosting a final. He's fucked up the Euro final in Wembley, the Europa League final this year and the Champions League final as well. Horrible record.
    More importantly, how is New Fatherhood? Are you sleeping? Covered in vom? Still elated? Depressed? Thinking of emigrating alone at night?

    I hope your experience is bright
    Tiring. Back to work now as well which is tough to leave behind wife and baby at home and traipse into the office twice a week.

    She's a pretty chill baby, eat, sleep, shit repeat.

    I'm averaging about 4 or 5 hours of sleep at the moment which is very draining having to work as well. I'm sure I'll get used to it though.
    Mate, it’s fucking tough. Sympathies

    At one point (month 3?) we could only get my eldest to sleep if I - literally - balanced her on my chest. Where she would slumber happily. I imagine my heartbeat was soothing and sounded womblike and maternal. Her mum could not do it because nipples, breastfeeding etc

    But of course with my tiny daughter on my chest that meant I could not sleep at all. I had to lie there, motionless, and rigid. I got about 3 hours a night for a while

    So grim! And the lack of sleep somehow builds up, like a toxin in the ecosystem. In the end I lapsed into a paternal post natal depression (it happens to 1 in 10 apparently). Luckily it was very short lived. A few weeks if that. But nasty

    Remember to self care! Dads are often neglected and ignored, and then Dads feel guilty for feeling like shit

    Yes, I remember those days. I would literally walk in a circle around our lounge for two, three hours at 3am, because that was the only way to settle our son. At 5am he'd finally drift off, and I'd try and grab 90 more minutes before work.
    Rachel Cusk (a really annoying ex girlfriend of mine) writes about this with lucid brilliance in A Life’s Work

    She’s talking with total honesty about early motherhood, but a surprising amount can be applied to early fatherhood. Plus some extra neuroses that come with being Paterfamilias

    it’s all worth it, of course, but that’s probably because humans are very good at blotting out miserable suffering and remembering the good stuff
    My wife and I left it too late to have children. Unfortunately we went ahead and had them anyway.
    I was 30 when I had Fox jr1 and 36 when Fox jr2, and definitely those 6 years make a big difference when coping with sleepless nights.

    Fortunately the second was an easy baby. I remember Mrs Foxy asking after a fortnight "do you think he is alright? He never cries".

    I have a theory that second babies are usually easier, because they don't pick up on parental anxiety so much. If a first baby sneezes, the parents hover over them, when a later child does the same, the parents hardly notice, and let them get back to sleep.

    The most remarkable thing that I found though is how little they change. That personality is there from day one.
    Hmmmm... number one was easy for us, number two was not.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    NEW THREAD
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    MrEd said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    darkage said:

    The more I think about it, it feels to me like the tories are in existential crisis. They could well be on the cusp of a "collapse of the liberal party" wipeout in the next general election. It is early 2019 revisited. Johnson's reinvention of the conservative party looks at the moment like it has completely failed. So, someone has to repeat what Johnson did in 2019, but with the first priority being to fix market credibility. It will be interesting to see what happens next. Time is short.

    Maybe Penny can reinvent them as the caring but discliplined party. Attractive matron.

    The main alternative, and favourite for the moment, is Hunt - comparatively a focus on pure professionalism. I'm not sure how far that would go, or how long it would necessarily last, though.
    Risk with Hunt is not only do the Tories fail to win back any voters lost to Labour or the LDs but they also leak Leavers back to RefUK and end up on the 20 to 25% they were on before May resigned and even worse than the 33% they are on now
    Farage would likely return to lead RefUK if Hunt replaced Boris as Tory leader and PM
    No he wouldn't. Why are you worrying about Leavers? We've left!

    Hunt/Mordaunt/Wallace need to calm the Blue wall without frightening the RedWall. It's a tough balance to achieve, but at present Johnson has pissed off both sets of voters.
    Hunt would likely try and return to May's Brexit Deal again, that would inevitably see some Tory Leavers leak to Farage and RefUK
    No he wouldn't.

    You primarily need to steady the nerves of Surrey voters and their ilk. They would prefer a softer redial of Brexit. Hunt does that for you.

    Your RedWall are currently concerned with the economy. You sell the Single Market to them as a means of improving the economy whilst retaining their newly minted sovereignty. You say selected Europeans can then come in to do the jobs they don't want to do, but explain it wouldn't be the free for all that Labour would allow (even if that is a white lie). Hunt could do that for you.

    You tell Farage and the ERG to **** off! Nobody likes them any more.

    Personally I'd like to see the back of the Conservatives for a decade. The longer Johnson remains, the more likely I suspect that becomes a reality.
    Reopen free movement which return to the single market requires and the redwall is lost to the Tories for good.

    Farage also would be even more certain to return than with a return to May's Deal
    Farage and the Tories would split what was left of the Tory vote after Johnson between them. Canada's Conservatives in 1993 would beckon.
    The Tories are never going to get less than about 165 seats (as they won in 1997 and 2001). The Canadian Conservatives were reduced to 2 seats in 1993. Not much of a comparison.
    If Farage's party overtook them, like Reform overtook the Canadian Tories in 1993 they would.

    See also the Les Republicains collapse in France as it has lost support to Le Pen and Zemmour as well as Macron

    No party led by Farage is ever going to overtake either the Tories or Labour - and probably not even the Lib Dems - in a GE. The best they can do is steal votes from them but even they they won't translate into seats. The dynamic simply isn't there.
    If the Tories went for a policy to rejoin the EU or return to the single market and full free movement they might.

    Before May went in Spring 2019 the Brexit Party were near neck and neck with the Tories in some polls. Until Johnson was elected Tory leader the Brexit Party even overtook the Tories in a few polls.

    At the 2015 General Election UKIP got more votes than the LDs if not more seats
    That was all then. This is now. This is the mistake you always make. You never look at the small print.

    It says:

    "'Past performance does not guarantee future results' "

    You ned a big sign stating this over your computer.
    If the Tories elected a leader committed to rejoining the EU they would get about 10% of the vote, the rest would defect to Farage's Party which would get about 30%.

    Though that is near impossible to foresee given Tory members would vote against any pro EU leadership candidate unless Tory MPs committed suicide and gave a coronation to such a candidate
    I am ever so grateful there are saner voices in the conservative party

    You are clever in some ways but utterly stupid in others

    Farage at 30% - really

    This is one of your stupid posts
    In the 2019 European elections the Tories got 9% and Farage's Brexit Party got 31% after May failed to deliver Brexit.

    If the Tories were stupid enough to elect a leader committed to rejoin the EU now those figures would be replicated at a general election too
    With respect, I suggest the publics view of the 'advantages' of Brexit is changing. S lowly, perhaps, but it is.
    I wonder what would happen if polls started showing, consistently, 65% Rejoin over 35% Stay Out

    FWIW I think this is quite unlikely. There is a big difference between Remorse and Rejoin. But I no longer think it impossible
    Rejoining would be the 21st century answer to the Restoration of 1660.
    Followed by plague and fire, you mean?n

    And who is the Tumbledown Dick to Johnson's Oliver Cromwell?
    Johnson is more Charles II, surely?

    Duplicitous, serial love cheat, but jolly and entertaining.

    Followed by the dour and humourless James II (who plays that role?) and then revolution.
    Reading Thucydides because I am going to Syracuse tomorrow and it is quite clear Johnson is Alcibiades, the mutilation of the Herms pure bullingdon and the Sicilian expedition was Athens's Brexit
    I’m loving the classical references @IshmaelZ but are you suggesting that BJ will eventually side with Sparta aka SKS to overthrow Athens aka the Tories?
    Not specifically.
    But like Alcibiades, he's a treacherous shit in love with his own brilliance, and interested only in his own prospects.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,377
    Leon said:

    I'm hesitant to speak up for the French on here, but isn't it to their credit that their Sports Minister has given a fulsome apology to Liverpool fans, and that they have completed a report, rather swiftly, that admits to multiple serious failures in overseeing the game?

    If I really tried, I could imagine some governments would find it much harder fessing up to such cock-ups, especially if they had denied all wrongdoing at the time of the event.

    An interesting point. And yet, I am 99% certain, if it weren’t for the existence of smartphones and social media - together providing overwhelming evidence: that the French government and the French police firstly failed, and then lyingly denied their failure - then we would still be listening to the Interior Minister lie.

    They didn’t go down the Road to Damascus, they just encountered the immovable obstacle of mass citizen journalism

    Note also that the French Left (apparently similar to our own Left) has been in a similar state of lying denial vis-a-vis the clear involvement of local black and Arab youths in the debacle
    Yes, we're so lucky to have you, our man on the spot in the Paris banlieues, to report on what the local black and Arab youth are getting up to.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Foxy said:

    Farooq said:

    https://twitter.com/OprosUK/status/1535281899811250176

    Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 36% (-3) CON: 32% (+1) LDM: 12% (=) GRN: 7% (+1) REF: 4% (=) via @YouGov , 1-3 Jun (Changes with 25 May)

    Lab+Green 43%
    Green always seem to poll higher with yougov. Perhaps twice other polls, but I cannot see that 7% actually happening at a GE.
    Depends, really. If Labour don't have a convincing offer, enough people might say "meh, whatever" and vote for their actual preference.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,300
    DavidL said:

    fitalass said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Applicant said:

    MaxPB said:

    Applicant said:

    MaxPB said:

    Also the major criticism of UEFA for the ticket fiasco and the reason there were so many fakes floating around is because there was no security hologram this time around, that allowed fans to basically just print off their own using colour laser printers and perforated card. Tickets that are easy to forge is, IMO, inviting trouble.

    Wait, what? The last football game I went to was a National League game in April and the tickets for that had a hologram!
    They didn't, see here:



    The ticket on the left is real.
    That's utterly astonishing. Not even on the reverse? (I can't immediately find any pictures of the reverse online)
    Nah, no hologram at all. It made all the tickets very easy to fake. UEFA blamed the teams for insisting on paper tickets at first, as usual they're never responsible for their fuck ups, but the lack of the hologram is now being touted as the reason 5x as many fakes as they would normally see at a match like this were floating around.
    And the QR code?
    But that requires someone to actually scan them which is done at the entry gate not at the outer cordon.

    I'm not sure how many big football matches you've been to, I've been to a few and there's always an outer cordon where ticket holders have their tickets checked by eye and then the inside that it's ticket holders only. The reason the holograms exist on these kinds of tickets is to help the stewards at the outer cordon who don't have scanners to easily spot people with fakes.

    By not having the hologram UEFA took away this security layer and unsurprisingly a bunch of shysters with reasonably decent fake tickets were selling them just outside the outer cordon and some fans attempted to print their own. They got past the outer cordon easily and that's why there were all of these issues at the entry gates with people who had either been conned or were trying to con their way into the game making it impossible for legitimate ticket holders to get in.

    It was a UEFA fuck up and it looks as though the head of UEFA just got his gym buddy to take over as head of security despite being a complete novice and unsuitable for the job.
    I read that about UEFA, Two Slovenians eh. What are the odds

    Football is so fucked administratively. I guess it successfully generates so much money people don’t care about the governance - until something like this

    A bit like China, before Zero Covid
    Indeed and event security is probably the most critical bit of hosting a final. He's fucked up the Euro final in Wembley, the Europa League final this year and the Champions League final as well. Horrible record.
    More importantly, how is New Fatherhood? Are you sleeping? Covered in vom? Still elated? Depressed? Thinking of emigrating alone at night?

    I hope your experience is bright
    Tiring. Back to work now as well which is tough to leave behind wife and baby at home and traipse into the office twice a week.

    She's a pretty chill baby, eat, sleep, shit repeat.

    I'm averaging about 4 or 5 hours of sleep at the moment which is very draining having to work as well. I'm sure I'll get used to it though.
    Mate, it’s fucking tough. Sympathies

    At one point (month 3?) we could only get my eldest to sleep if I - literally - balanced her on my chest. Where she would slumber happily. I imagine my heartbeat was soothing and sounded womblike and maternal. Her mum could not do it because nipples, breastfeeding etc

    But of course with my tiny daughter on my chest that meant I could not sleep at all. I had to lie there, motionless, and rigid. I got about 3 hours a night for a while

    So grim! And the lack of sleep somehow builds up, like a toxin in the ecosystem. In the end I lapsed into a paternal post natal depression (it happens to 1 in 10 apparently). Luckily it was very short lived. A few weeks if that. But nasty

    Remember to self care! Dads are often neglected and ignored, and then Dads feel guilty for feeling like shit

    Yes, I remember those days. I would literally walk in a circle around our lounge for two, three hours at 3am, because that was the only way to settle our son. At 5am he'd finally drift off, and I'd try and grab 90 more minutes before work.
    Our first son was an amazingly chilled baby, just feed and slept, sleeping through the night by week 6/7, so when son No2 arrived and didn't sleep for the first eight weeks it was a hell of a shock and we were constantly shattered. Only time he did sleep at night is when Fitaloon took him for a drive, he would literally fall a sleep the minute the car started and then wake up crying the moment it stopped back at the house.
    Absolutely. My middle child's first sentence, and she was an early speaker, was "I do it myself". She's now 25 and not changed a bit.
    Yep, our middle lad was a really early speaker and very independent. I was visiting a friend who had her first child just a few weeks before I did when my middle son came out with his first sentence, I always remember how shocked she was and she was a Health Visitor. There is only 14 months between our first two sons, and that is where Son No2 got his competitive nature, he was always trying to keep up with his brother and his friends.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    https://twitter.com/OprosUK/status/1535281899811250176

    Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 36% (-3) CON: 32% (+1) LDM: 12% (=) GRN: 7% (+1) REF: 4% (=) via @YouGov , 1-3 Jun (Changes with 25 May)

    Where is the missing 9%?
    Don't knows?
    SNP, going to stand in some English seats.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,256

    Can anyone explain what the government is trying to do regards the NI Protocol? I notice Max was on yesterday with stories about poor business confidence. Has it escaped people's attention this may have something to do with Brexit and the threat of a trade war with the EU?

    And why is it so important to the Tory hardliners? Most people in Northern Ireland accept the protocol. Are we really going to get into a trade war with our nearest partners because of the DUP?

    Because the principle of the GFA isn’t “most people”. It’s a majority of each community block
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,904

    Can anyone explain what the government is trying to do regards the NI Protocol? I notice Max was on yesterday with stories about poor business confidence. Has it escaped people's attention this may have something to do with Brexit and the threat of a trade war with the EU?

    And why is it so important to the Tory hardliners? Most people in Northern Ireland accept the protocol. Are we really going to get into a trade war with our nearest partners because of the DUP?

    Because the principle of the GFA isn’t “most people”. It’s a majority of each community block
    In all seriousness, Mr Waters, are you really a Tory MP?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Applicant said:

    MaxPB said:

    Applicant said:

    MaxPB said:

    Also the major criticism of UEFA for the ticket fiasco and the reason there were so many fakes floating around is because there was no security hologram this time around, that allowed fans to basically just print off their own using colour laser printers and perforated card. Tickets that are easy to forge is, IMO, inviting trouble.

    Wait, what? The last football game I went to was a National League game in April and the tickets for that had a hologram!
    They didn't, see here:



    The ticket on the left is real.
    That's utterly astonishing. Not even on the reverse? (I can't immediately find any pictures of the reverse online)
    Nah, no hologram at all. It made all the tickets very easy to fake. UEFA blamed the teams for insisting on paper tickets at first, as usual they're never responsible for their fuck ups, but the lack of the hologram is now being touted as the reason 5x as many fakes as they would normally see at a match like this were floating around.
    And the QR code?
    But that requires someone to actually scan them which is done at the entry gate not at the outer cordon.

    I'm not sure how many big football matches you've been to, I've been to a few and there's always an outer cordon where ticket holders have their tickets checked by eye and then the inside that it's ticket holders only. The reason the holograms exist on these kinds of tickets is to help the stewards at the outer cordon who don't have scanners to easily spot people with fakes.

    By not having the hologram UEFA took away this security layer and unsurprisingly a bunch of shysters with reasonably decent fake tickets were selling them just outside the outer cordon and some fans attempted to print their own. They got past the outer cordon easily and that's why there were all of these issues at the entry gates with people who had either been conned or were trying to con their way into the game making it impossible for legitimate ticket holders to get in.

    It was a UEFA fuck up and it looks as though the head of UEFA just got his gym buddy to take over as head of security despite being a complete novice and unsuitable for the job.
    I read that about UEFA, Two Slovenians eh. What are the odds

    Football is so fucked administratively. I guess it successfully generates so much money people don’t care about the governance - until something like this

    A bit like China, before Zero Covid
    Indeed and event security is probably the most critical bit of hosting a final. He's fucked up the Euro final in Wembley, the Europa League final this year and the Champions League final as well. Horrible record.
    More importantly, how is New Fatherhood? Are you sleeping? Covered in vom? Still elated? Depressed? Thinking of emigrating alone at night?

    I hope your experience is bright
    Tiring. Back to work now as well which is tough to leave behind wife and baby at home and traipse into the office twice a week.

    She's a pretty chill baby, eat, sleep, shit repeat.

    I'm averaging about 4 or 5 hours of sleep at the moment which is very draining having to work as well. I'm sure I'll get used to it though.
    Many congratulations sir. I hadn’t seen the news. Welcome to fatherhood.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    Right on cue...




    Prof. Christina Pagel 🇺🇦
    @chrischirp
    🧵THREAD: a new wave has started in England (and likely about to or has in rest of UK)

    TLDR: this will be 3rd wave within 6 months. Long covid an increasing issue - particularly in overexposed professions.

    We don't need a UK ventilator challenge we need a ventilation one!

    https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1535280913415913477

    South Africas BA4/5 wave was a whimper, hopefully given its summer here we follow suit.
    Zero chance of any restrictions in England anyway, and highly unlikely we get anywhere hear the other Omicron peaks.
    Feigl-Ding should be proclaiming maximum ultra death soon though and Pagel will always post hyperbolic doomery for clicks
    The day that Johnson stands at that podium again and implores us to 'stay at home and save lives' and 'you must not socialise' will be the day that entire population dies laughing whilst jabbing two fingers at the tv.

    That’s probably one of the strongest arguments to retain him TBF.
This discussion has been closed.