Actually +8 for Labour is pretty abysmal. This is pointing to a poor mid term by election for Labour if they take the seat on basis of stay at home till general election Tory votes, not getting much more than 8% from switchers themselves.
Tell me I’m wrong.
But without switchers, without much improvement in labours vote from last time, it’s not painting a convincing red wall picture for Labour, as indeed the locals were a mixed bag across the red wall.
The key number is Conservative down 18. As we saw in the locals and mirrored in Australia, the collapse of the centre-right isn't being matched by a consequent rise in the centre-left but by disillusioned voters seeking out other alternatives. The 13% swing will still look good for Labour if that's what happened.
I'm increasingly of the view the fragmentation of the Conservative vote will, even under FPTP, help any other party or independent who can establish themselves as the clear alternative.
The truth is, Labor in Australia suffered similar loss of votes to non establishment places, the 1pp Lab share was below every poll except the one we were thinking was a rough poll but turned out with lowest labour share and government win by 3% on 1pp most accurate. The same thing happening in France, in extreme way. So to that extent I am agreeing with you, lost votes for Tories hurt them, tactical voting hurts them - also as a by product, those calling for labour double digit or 20% polling leads as necessary are wrong in this new era of diverse polling.
However, where I think you are wrong is two fold. Firstly, this is a labour/Tory battleground seat, bellwether, not much presence from other parties to make a difference - in the Aussie comparison Wakefield would not be a teal win helpful for Labour, it would be a Lab target indicative of where we are today on their battlefield for seat total for themself!
Which supports me in what I am saying, do we measure what course labour are on this mid term by the number of Tory’s staying at home handing labour seat, or by the % the Lab share grows due to switching? I think the latter, gap between parties would disappoint me here if I was a leader here, if our own stock isn’t rising the gap is merely Boris unpopularity. Why. Because it would give me no assurance I’m on course.
Stay at home vote is a different thing than switched vote, it’s softer, change of Tory leader the softer stay at home vote could swing back. To get excited about gap back to a collapsed Tory share would be immature pesodolphinolgy here if the truth is a huge soft vote prone to swingback.
To what extent it is disillusion with Boris or the Tories remains the big question. Not sure. But I doubt simply changing the leader without altering the attitude, tone or addressing the absence of any discernible direction or coherent plan is quite a magic bullet.
For comparison. The Council results.for the constituency were.
Lab 52, Con 31, YP 6, Green 6, LD 4.
So. Not entirely sure where the surprise is?
No Yorkshire party in the opinion poll. They weren’t prompted for. So who do they take votes from? I bet it’s mostly the Tories.
Interesting that REFUK were only on 3% and down from the last poll. So no evidence of angry Tories lending their votes to another right wing option.
Actually +8 for Labour is pretty abysmal. This is pointing to a poor mid term by election for Labour if they take the seat on basis of stay at home till general election Tory votes, not getting much more than 8% from switchers themselves.
Tell me I’m wrong.
But without switchers, without much improvement in labours vote from last time, it’s not painting a convincing red wall picture for Labour, as indeed the locals were a mixed bag across the red wall.
I agree there isn't massive enthusiasm for Labour, but I think this poll fits in with a trend in local elections too that the Tories (particularly under Johnson) are becoming so disliked by so many groups that so long as Labour are seen as decent voters will tactically do what it takes to punish the Tories worse than the national polls may suggest.
Post-Boris, whether soon or late, the question immediately turns to a different one. Replacing Boris now solved, what solutions do the new leadership have to the most intractable of the problems currently put on the back burner?
These are equally issues for Labour and Tory. Apart from unicorns which involve detaching spending, taxing and borrowing as if they can be separated; and unicorns about Europe, I haven't heard much.
For example, I occasionally hear bleats from 'low tax' supporting Tories but never see the plan as it relates to the rest of the equation. And Labour have the same problem.
Not sure what's funnier - Wakefield going 20 points to Labour or HY saying that Wakefield Tory voters who elected them in 2019 weren't real Tories and that the party didn't need the seat or the 80 majority etc etc etc
Wakefield is the 38th Labour target seat, technically the Tories could lose Wakefield and still win a small majority.
Lose Tiverton and Honiton however at a general election and the Tories would face an even worse landslide defeat than 1997
Wakefield is no metropolitan liberal elite northern seat - it's your new base.
Not sure what's funnier - Wakefield going 20 points to Labour or HY saying that Wakefield Tory voters who elected them in 2019 weren't real Tories and that the party didn't need the seat or the 80 majority etc etc etc
Wakefield is the 38th Labour target seat, technically the Tories could lose Wakefield and still win a small majority.
Lose Tiverton and Honiton however at a general election and the Tories would face an even worse landslide defeat than 1997
Wakefield is no metropolitan liberal elite northern seat - it's your new base.
It isn't, Bishop Auckland or Grimsby might be our new base, not Wakefield
Not sure what's funnier - Wakefield going 20 points to Labour or HY saying that Wakefield Tory voters who elected them in 2019 weren't real Tories and that the party didn't need the seat or the 80 majority etc etc etc
Wakefield is the 38th Labour target seat, technically the Tories could lose Wakefield and still win a small majority.
Lose Tiverton and Honiton however at a general election and the Tories would face an even worse landslide defeat than 1997
Wakefield is no metropolitan liberal elite northern seat - it's your new base.
It isn't, Bishop Auckland or Grimsby might be our new base, not Wakefield
Based on what? Have you been to any of those three places?
Not sure what's funnier - Wakefield going 20 points to Labour or HY saying that Wakefield Tory voters who elected them in 2019 weren't real Tories and that the party didn't need the seat or the 80 majority etc etc etc
Wakefield is the 38th Labour target seat, technically the Tories could lose Wakefield and still win a small majority.
Lose Tiverton and Honiton however at a general election and the Tories would face an even worse landslide defeat than 1997
Wakefield is no metropolitan liberal elite northern seat - it's your new base.
It isn't, Bishop Auckland or Grimsby might be our new base, not Wakefield
Based on what? Have you been to any of those three places?
Maths.
Wakefield is only 38th on the Labour target list, the Tories could win a small majority and lose that.
Bishop Auckland is though 105th on the Labour target list, so Labour could win most seats and the Tories hold that.
Great Grimsby is 134th on the Labour target list, so Labour could even win a majority and the Conservatives still hold that
Not sure what's funnier - Wakefield going 20 points to Labour or HY saying that Wakefield Tory voters who elected them in 2019 weren't real Tories and that the party didn't need the seat or the 80 majority etc etc etc
Wakefield is the 38th Labour target seat, technically the Tories could lose Wakefield and still win a small majority.
Lose Tiverton and Honiton however at a general election and the Tories would face an even worse landslide defeat than 1997
Wakefield is no metropolitan liberal elite northern seat - it's your new base.
It isn't, Bishop Auckland or Grimsby might be our new base, not Wakefield
Based on what? Have you been to any of those three places?
Maths.
Wakefield is only 38th on the Labour target list, the Tories could win a small majority and lose that.
Bishop Auckland is though 105th on the Labour target list, so Labour could win most seats and the Tories hold that.
Great Grimsby is 134th on the Labour target list, so Labour could even win a majority and the Conservatives still hold that
The target list means absolutely nothing - its uniform swing and nowt more.
How does Wakefield poll compare to pre 2019 results? Is it reversion or a genuine improvement?
It's similar to the result in 2001 and 1997.
Caveat to that. The boundaries pre-2010 make it incomparable really. Only three of the six wards remain. So it isn't really the same seat except by name.
Actually +8 for Labour is pretty abysmal. This is pointing to a poor mid term by election for Labour if they take the seat on basis of stay at home till general election Tory votes, not getting much more than 8% from switchers themselves.
Tell me I’m wrong.
But without switchers, without much improvement in labours vote from last time, it’s not painting a convincing red wall picture for Labour, as indeed the locals were a mixed bag across the red wall.
The key number is Conservative down 18. As we saw in the locals and mirrored in Australia, the collapse of the centre-right isn't being matched by a consequent rise in the centre-left but by disillusioned voters seeking out other alternatives. The 13% swing will still look good for Labour if that's what happened.
I'm increasingly of the view the fragmentation of the Conservative vote will, even under FPTP, help any other party or independent who can establish themselves as the clear alternative.
The truth is, Labor in Australia suffered similar loss of votes to non establishment places, the 1pp Lab share was below every poll except the one we were thinking was a rough poll but turned out with lowest labour share and government win by 3% on 1pp most accurate. The same thing happening in France, in extreme way. So to that extent I am agreeing with you, lost votes for Tories hurt them, tactical voting hurts them - also as a by product, those calling for labour double digit or 20% polling leads as necessary are wrong in this new era of diverse polling.
However, where I think you are wrong is two fold. Firstly, this is a labour/Tory battleground seat, bellwether, not much presence from other parties to make a difference - in the Aussie comparison Wakefield would not be a teal win helpful for Labour, it would be a Lab target indicative of where we are today on their battlefield for seat total for themself!
Which supports me in what I am saying, do we measure what course labour are on this mid term by the number of Tory’s staying at home handing labour seat, or by the % the Lab share grows due to switching? I think the latter, gap between parties would disappoint me here if I was a leader here, if our own stock isn’t rising the gap is merely Boris unpopularity. Why. Because it would give me no assurance I’m on course.
Stay at home vote is a different thing than switched vote, it’s softer, change of Tory leader the softer stay at home vote could swing back. To get excited about gap back to a collapsed Tory share would be immature pesodolphinolgy here if the truth is a huge soft vote prone to swingback.
To what extent it is disillusion with Boris or the Tories remains the big question. Not sure. But I doubt simply changing the leader without altering the attitude, tone or addressing the absence of any discernible direction or coherent plan is quite a magic bullet.
we could be surprised how much of a magic bullet removing the Boris shaped anchor now is in places like Tivi and the red wall and the opinion polls - that’s our PB job isn’t it, the pseudoasophagusology to look at the result from Wakefield and say “Nah. Far too much anti Boris hand sitting, not enough labour votes on - this wins soft as cream to Tory leader change.”
Alternatively, even with a smaller gap between parties, clear evidence of Con to Lab support lifting the Labour share would leave us more assured Labour could be making red wall recovery regardless of change of leader.
Colour me unconvinced Labour winning Wakefield means much at all, I’ll explain why, correct me where I am wrong.
Firstly, what was so special about Boris winning the red wall? I would answer zilch, absolutely nothing. Someone else could be associated with listening to these globalisation ravaged communities for the first time in decades, someone else could promise them levelling up, and achieve that same result as Boris, it wasn’t him but the message, the not taking you for granted but levelling you up with influx of investment flipped the votes from Labour - this is why these red wall communities voted for both Brexit and Boris - not for Boris, but for hope, for change.
If I am right, how do Labour fight back? The answers obvious, they need to match the promises of investment, they need to offer the same hope. They need to offer change they didn’t deliver in the past.
Have Labour been doing this? Nope.
Why should you win back the red wall from Tories by doing nothing?
Replacing the ridiculous Johnson, the Tory’s still have the red wall vote - it’s not personal to Johnson, if it’s based on levelling up investment and hope for better future, it’s personal to Brexit. If Labour continue with their do nothing approach this will take years to unwind itself.
Must be getting old like Rod Stewart, but I have got fed up with it and come to PB ouch. Up to now saved by some Opera. Royal Family must be bored stiff behind their smiles.
Actually +8 for Labour is pretty abysmal. This is pointing to a poor mid term by election for Labour if they take the seat on basis of stay at home till general election Tory votes, not getting much more than 8% from switchers themselves.
Tell me I’m wrong.
But without switchers, without much improvement in labours vote from last time, it’s not painting a convincing red wall picture for Labour, as indeed the locals were a mixed bag across the red wall.
The key number is Conservative down 18. As we saw in the locals and mirrored in Australia, the collapse of the centre-right isn't being matched by a consequent rise in the centre-left but by disillusioned voters seeking out other alternatives. The 13% swing will still look good for Labour if that's what happened.
I'm increasingly of the view the fragmentation of the Conservative vote will, even under FPTP, help any other party or independent who can establish themselves as the clear alternative.
The truth is, Labor in Australia suffered similar loss of votes to non establishment places, the 1pp Lab share was below every poll except the one we were thinking was a rough poll but turned out with lowest labour share and government win by 3% on 1pp most accurate. The same thing happening in France, in extreme way. So to that extent I am agreeing with you, lost votes for Tories hurt them, tactical voting hurts them - also as a by product, those calling for labour double digit or 20% polling leads as necessary are wrong in this new era of diverse polling.
However, where I think you are wrong is two fold. Firstly, this is a labour/Tory battleground seat, bellwether, not much presence from other parties to make a difference - in the Aussie comparison Wakefield would not be a teal win helpful for Labour, it would be a Lab target indicative of where we are today on their battlefield for seat total for themself!
Which supports me in what I am saying, do we measure what course labour are on this mid term by the number of Tory’s staying at home handing labour seat, or by the % the Lab share grows due to switching? I think the latter, gap between parties would disappoint me here if I was a leader here, if our own stock isn’t rising the gap is merely Boris unpopularity. Why. Because it would give me no assurance I’m on course.
Stay at home vote is a different thing than switched vote, it’s softer, change of Tory leader the softer stay at home vote could swing back. To get excited about gap back to a collapsed Tory share would be immature pesodolphinolgy here if the truth is a huge soft vote prone to swingback.
To what extent it is disillusion with Boris or the Tories remains the big question. Not sure. But I doubt simply changing the leader without altering the attitude, tone or addressing the absence of any discernible direction or coherent plan is quite a magic bullet.
we could be surprised how much of a magic bullet removing the Boris shaped anchor now is in places like Tivi and the red wall and the opinion polls - that’s our PB job isn’t it, the pseudoasophagusology to look at the result from Wakefield and say “Nah. Far too much anti Boris hand sitting, not enough labour votes on - this wins soft as cream to Tory leader change.”
Alternatively, even with a smaller gap between parties, clear evidence of Con to Lab support lifting the Labour share would leave us more assured Labour could be making red wall recovery regardless of change of leader.
Colour me unconvinced Labour winning Wakefield means much at all, I’ll explain why, correct me where I am wrong.
Firstly, what was so special about Boris winning the red wall? I would answer zilch, absolutely nothing. Someone else could be associated with listening to these globalisation ravaged communities for the first time in decades, someone else could promise them levelling up, and achieve that same result as Boris, it wasn’t him but the message, the not taking you for granted but levelling you up with influx of investment flipped the votes from Labour - this is why these red wall communities voted for both Brexit and Boris - not for Boris, but for hope, for change.
If I am right, how do Labour fight back? The answers obvious, they need to match the promises of investment, they need to offer the same hope. They need to offer change they didn’t deliver in the past.
Have Labour been doing this? Nope.
Why should you win back the red wall from Tories by doing nothing?
Replacing the ridiculous Johnson, the Tory’s still have the red wall vote - it’s not personal to Johnson, if it’s based on levelling up investment and hope for better future, it’s personal to Brexit. If Labour continue with their do nothing approach this will take years to unwind itself.
You seem under some kind of illusion that the Tories have done anything whatsoever other than promise. There's been Brexit and Boris. Result. The levels of regional inequality have grown. Influx of investment? Haven't seen it.
Must be getting old like Rod Stewart, but I have got fed up with it and come to PB ouch. Up to now saved by some Opera. Royal Family must be bored stiff behind their smiles.
Got to be better than the Royal Variety, surely? That really must be a trial.
How does Wakefield poll compare to pre 2019 results? Is it reversion or a genuine improvement?
It's similar to the result in 2001 and 1997.
So landslide territory then, thought so
Calm down Horse. Johnson is on his way out. There will be a bounce for a non-Johnsonian new Con. leader. Mind you, it's hard to see past the economic carnage Boris and Richy Rich have left in their wake.
Must be getting old like Rod Stewart, but I have got fed up with it and come to PB ouch. Up to now saved by some Opera. Royal Family must be bored stiff behind their smiles.
That's the job - overcoming boredom at events must take some training and determination.
Wow. Wills essentially holding a gun to Boris's head over zero carbon. The Firm must know he's weakened and there for the taking.
It is, currently at least, an issue which whilst people differ on the details is cared enough about by a broad enough group that the royals are able to bang on about it without it seeming too political for them to do so. Whether that remains so we shall have to see, if they start climbing on trains with XR.
Actually +8 for Labour is pretty abysmal. This is pointing to a poor mid term by election for Labour if they take the seat on basis of stay at home till general election Tory votes, not getting much more than 8% from switchers themselves.
Tell me I’m wrong.
But without switchers, without much improvement in labours vote from last time, it’s not painting a convincing red wall picture for Labour, as indeed the locals were a mixed bag across the red wall.
The key number is Conservative down 18. As we saw in the locals and mirrored in Australia, the collapse of the centre-right isn't being matched by a consequent rise in the centre-left but by disillusioned voters seeking out other alternatives. The 13% swing will still look good for Labour if that's what happened.
I'm increasingly of the view the fragmentation of the Conservative vote will, even under FPTP, help any other party or independent who can establish themselves as the clear alternative.
The truth is, Labor in Australia suffered similar loss of votes to non establishment places, the 1pp Lab share was below every poll except the one we were thinking was a rough poll but turned out with lowest labour share and government win by 3% on 1pp most accurate. The same thing happening in France, in extreme way. So to that extent I am agreeing with you, lost votes for Tories hurt them, tactical voting hurts them - also as a by product, those calling for labour double digit or 20% polling leads as necessary are wrong in this new era of diverse polling.
However, where I think you are wrong is two fold. Firstly, this is a labour/Tory battleground seat, bellwether, not much presence from other parties to make a difference - in the Aussie comparison Wakefield would not be a teal win helpful for Labour, it would be a Lab target indicative of where we are today on their battlefield for seat total for themself!
Which supports me in what I am saying, do we measure what course labour are on this mid term by the number of Tory’s staying at home handing labour seat, or by the % the Lab share grows due to switching? I think the latter, gap between parties would disappoint me here if I was a leader here, if our own stock isn’t rising the gap is merely Boris unpopularity. Why. Because it would give me no assurance I’m on course.
Stay at home vote is a different thing than switched vote, it’s softer, change of Tory leader the softer stay at home vote could swing back. To get excited about gap back to a collapsed Tory share would be immature pesodolphinolgy here if the truth is a huge soft vote prone to swingback.
To what extent it is disillusion with Boris or the Tories remains the big question. Not sure. But I doubt simply changing the leader without altering the attitude, tone or addressing the absence of any discernible direction or coherent plan is quite a magic bullet.
we could be surprised how much of a magic bullet removing the Boris shaped anchor now is in places like Tivi and the red wall and the opinion polls - that’s our PB job isn’t it, the pseudoasophagusology to look at the result from Wakefield and say “Nah. Far too much anti Boris hand sitting, not enough labour votes on - this wins soft as cream to Tory leader change.”
Alternatively, even with a smaller gap between parties, clear evidence of Con to Lab support lifting the Labour share would leave us more assured Labour could be making red wall recovery regardless of change of leader.
Colour me unconvinced Labour winning Wakefield means much at all, I’ll explain why, correct me where I am wrong.
Firstly, what was so special about Boris winning the red wall? I would answer zilch, absolutely nothing. Someone else could be associated with listening to these globalisation ravaged communities for the first time in decades, someone else could promise them levelling up, and achieve that same result as Boris, it wasn’t him but the message, the not taking you for granted but levelling you up with influx of investment flipped the votes from Labour - this is why these red wall communities voted for both Brexit and Boris - not for Boris, but for hope, for change.
If I am right, how do Labour fight back? The answers obvious, they need to match the promises of investment, they need to offer the same hope. They need to offer change they didn’t deliver in the past.
Have Labour been doing this? Nope.
Why should you win back the red wall from Tories by doing nothing?
Replacing the ridiculous Johnson, the Tory’s still have the red wall vote - it’s not personal to Johnson, if it’s based on levelling up investment and hope for better future, it’s personal to Brexit. If Labour continue with their do nothing approach this will take years to unwind itself.
One important caveat, though.
In 2019, there wasn't a Green candidate in Wakefield; this poll puts the Greens on 8 % this time round. One picture of the churn is a Con to Lab swing of about 16 points, with Labour then dropping 8 points to the Greens further left.
It's almost certainly not as neat as that, but it highlights the huge impact local factors can have.
(It's interesting to speculate what Red Wall Voters want; given that they tend to be older and comfortably off- sterotypically retired and with the mortgage on their Right to Buy houses paid off- is it more change, less change or reversed change that will appeal most?)
Wow. Wills essentially holding a gun to Boris's head over zero carbon. The Firm must know he's weakened and there for the taking.
One of the things that will definitely go if Tories ditch Johnson is zero-carbon.
For all his many, many faults he seems to get climate change.
I find it hard to judge - some Conservatives really don't give a shit, some play lip service because a lot of people care about it thesedays, but others truly are just as intense about it as anyone in XR or the like, even if they probably won't propose the same solutions. With the right leader I think the party could keep up many climate committments and carry the party through it.
Actually +8 for Labour is pretty abysmal. This is pointing to a poor mid term by election for Labour if they take the seat on basis of stay at home till general election Tory votes, not getting much more than 8% from switchers themselves.
Tell me I’m wrong.
But without switchers, without much improvement in labours vote from last time, it’s not painting a convincing red wall picture for Labour, as indeed the locals were a mixed bag across the red wall.
The key number is Conservative down 18. As we saw in the locals and mirrored in Australia, the collapse of the centre-right isn't being matched by a consequent rise in the centre-left but by disillusioned voters seeking out other alternatives. The 13% swing will still look good for Labour if that's what happened.
I'm increasingly of the view the fragmentation of the Conservative vote will, even under FPTP, help any other party or independent who can establish themselves as the clear alternative.
The truth is, Labor in Australia suffered similar loss of votes to non establishment places, the 1pp Lab share was below every poll except the one we were thinking was a rough poll but turned out with lowest labour share and government win by 3% on 1pp most accurate. The same thing happening in France, in extreme way. So to that extent I am agreeing with you, lost votes for Tories hurt them, tactical voting hurts them - also as a by product, those calling for labour double digit or 20% polling leads as necessary are wrong in this new era of diverse polling.
However, where I think you are wrong is two fold. Firstly, this is a labour/Tory battleground seat, bellwether, not much presence from other parties to make a difference - in the Aussie comparison Wakefield would not be a teal win helpful for Labour, it would be a Lab target indicative of where we are today on their battlefield for seat total for themself!
Which supports me in what I am saying, do we measure what course labour are on this mid term by the number of Tory’s staying at home handing labour seat, or by the % the Lab share grows due to switching? I think the latter, gap between parties would disappoint me here if I was a leader here, if our own stock isn’t rising the gap is merely Boris unpopularity. Why. Because it would give me no assurance I’m on course.
Stay at home vote is a different thing than switched vote, it’s softer, change of Tory leader the softer stay at home vote could swing back. To get excited about gap back to a collapsed Tory share would be immature pesodolphinolgy here if the truth is a huge soft vote prone to swingback.
To what extent it is disillusion with Boris or the Tories remains the big question. Not sure. But I doubt simply changing the leader without altering the attitude, tone or addressing the absence of any discernible direction or coherent plan is quite a magic bullet.
we could be surprised how much of a magic bullet removing the Boris shaped anchor now is in places like Tivi and the red wall and the opinion polls - that’s our PB job isn’t it, the pseudoasophagusology to look at the result from Wakefield and say “Nah. Far too much anti Boris hand sitting, not enough labour votes on - this wins soft as cream to Tory leader change.”
Alternatively, even with a smaller gap between parties, clear evidence of Con to Lab support lifting the Labour share would leave us more assured Labour could be making red wall recovery regardless of change of leader.
Colour me unconvinced Labour winning Wakefield means much at all, I’ll explain why, correct me where I am wrong.
Firstly, what was so special about Boris winning the red wall? I would answer zilch, absolutely nothing. Someone else could be associated with listening to these globalisation ravaged communities for the first time in decades, someone else could promise them levelling up, and achieve that same result as Boris, it wasn’t him but the message, the not taking you for granted but levelling you up with influx of investment flipped the votes from Labour - this is why these red wall communities voted for both Brexit and Boris - not for Boris, but for hope, for change.
If I am right, how do Labour fight back? The answers obvious, they need to match the promises of investment, they need to offer the same hope. They need to offer change they didn’t deliver in the past.
Have Labour been doing this? Nope.
Why should you win back the red wall from Tories by doing nothing?
Replacing the ridiculous Johnson, the Tory’s still have the red wall vote - it’s not personal to Johnson, if it’s based on levelling up investment and hope for better future, it’s personal to Brexit. If Labour continue with their do nothing approach this will take years to unwind itself.
One important caveat, though.
In 2019, there wasn't a Green candidate in Wakefield; this poll puts the Greens on 8 % this time round. One picture of the churn is a Con to Lab swing of about 16 points, with Labour then dropping 8 points to the Greens further left.
It's almost certainly not as neat as that, but it highlights the huge impact local factors can have.
(It's interesting to speculate what Red Wall Voters want; given that they tend to be older and comfortably off- sterotypically retired and with the mortgage on their Right to Buy houses paid off- is it more change, less change or reversed change that will appeal most?)
We don't know which voters have switched how. I'd guess it's Con down 16 points, with 8 points going to Labour and 8 points going Green. There are lots of people who will vote Green as a NOTA party. I don't think the general electorate see the Green Party as to the left of Labour.
Wow. Wills essentially holding a gun to Boris's head over zero carbon. The Firm must know he's weakened and there for the taking.
Under Boris the UK has a net zero carbon target far more ambitious already than most of the G20
The market has already decided we are post-carbon. Massive investment in solar and so on.
When North Africa and India start to seriously lay out solar panels with interconnectors to rest of world e.g. Sahara and Morocco, then oil and gas are over.
Charles really needs to find a new opening line, he's used that one before...
Not one of the world's great public speakers.
Yes, I've never really understood why they aren't all great speakers, at least insofar as training can improve such things. I imagined it to be standard curriculum for royal sprogs.
Wow. Wills essentially holding a gun to Boris's head over zero carbon. The Firm must know he's weakened and there for the taking.
Under Boris the UK has a net zero carbon target far more ambitious already than most of the G20
The market has already decided we are post-carbon. Massive investment in solar and so on.
When North Africa and India start to seriously lay out solar panels with interconnectors to rest of world e.g. Sahara and Morocco, then oil and gas are over.
For energy. And long overdue. Trouble is you still need the other 40% or so of the barrel of oil for all the other stuff.
Wow. Wills essentially holding a gun to Boris's head over zero carbon. The Firm must know he's weakened and there for the taking.
One of the things that will definitely go if Tories ditch Johnson is zero-carbon.
For all his many, many faults he seems to get climate change.
I find it hard to judge - some Conservatives really don't give a shit, some play lip service because a lot of people care about it thesedays, but others truly are just as intense about it as anyone in XR or the like, even if they probably won't propose the same solutions. With the right leader I think the party could keep up many climate committments and carry the party through it.
Boris doesn’t give a XXXX about anything other than himself. He’s simply trying to keep her indoors happy.
The BBC will have spent god knows how many thousands of hours organizing the outside broadcasts for this weekend's events.
I know Nadine hates them, but does the average tory member really want the Beeb to be reduced to the point that they will not be able to do this kind of national event any more?
I don't think so. I suspect the Beeb is more popular amongst tory members than wider population.
I'm inclined to agree. It's really amazing how much Boris as his coterie of chancers have trashed the Tory brand that this is now a sensible conclusion to come to.
Not that I put any value on patriotism, of course. I think it's the mark of the truly stupid. But it's a bar that the Conservatives set for themselves and they now can't reach it. Be concerned, Conservatives.
Very impressive light show. In a country with this level of creativity who could have thought it a smart idea to make Nadine Dorries Minister of Culture?
Actually +8 for Labour is pretty abysmal. This is pointing to a poor mid term by election for Labour if they take the seat on basis of stay at home till general election Tory votes, not getting much more than 8% from switchers themselves.
Tell me I’m wrong.
But without switchers, without much improvement in labours vote from last time, it’s not painting a convincing red wall picture for Labour, as indeed the locals were a mixed bag across the red wall.
The key number is Conservative down 18. As we saw in the locals and mirrored in Australia, the collapse of the centre-right isn't being matched by a consequent rise in the centre-left but by disillusioned voters seeking out other alternatives. The 13% swing will still look good for Labour if that's what happened.
I'm increasingly of the view the fragmentation of the Conservative vote will, even under FPTP, help any other party or independent who can establish themselves as the clear alternative.
The truth is, Labor in Australia suffered similar loss of votes to non establishment places, the 1pp Lab share was below every poll except the one we were thinking was a rough poll but turned out with lowest labour share and government win by 3% on 1pp most accurate. The same thing happening in France, in extreme way. So to that extent I am agreeing with you, lost votes for Tories hurt them, tactical voting hurts them - also as a by product, those calling for labour double digit or 20% polling leads as necessary are wrong in this new era of diverse polling.
However, where I think you are wrong is two fold. Firstly, this is a labour/Tory battleground seat, bellwether, not much presence from other parties to make a difference - in the Aussie comparison Wakefield would not be a teal win helpful for Labour, it would be a Lab target indicative of where we are today on their battlefield for seat total for themself!
Which supports me in what I am saying, do we measure what course labour are on this mid term by the number of Tory’s staying at home handing labour seat, or by the % the Lab share grows due to switching? I think the latter, gap between parties would disappoint me here if I was a leader here, if our own stock isn’t rising the gap is merely Boris unpopularity. Why. Because it would give me no assurance I’m on course.
Stay at home vote is a different thing than switched vote, it’s softer, change of Tory leader the softer stay at home vote could swing back. To get excited about gap back to a collapsed Tory share would be immature pesodolphinolgy here if the truth is a huge soft vote prone to swingback.
To what extent it is disillusion with Boris or the Tories remains the big question. Not sure. But I doubt simply changing the leader without altering the attitude, tone or addressing the absence of any discernible direction or coherent plan is quite a magic bullet.
we could be surprised how much of a magic bullet removing the Boris shaped anchor now is in places like Tivi and the red wall and the opinion polls - that’s our PB job isn’t it, the pseudoasophagusology to look at the result from Wakefield and say “Nah. Far too much anti Boris hand sitting, not enough labour votes on - this wins soft as cream to Tory leader change.”
Alternatively, even with a smaller gap between parties, clear evidence of Con to Lab support lifting the Labour share would leave us more assured Labour could be making red wall recovery regardless of change of leader.
Colour me unconvinced Labour winning Wakefield means much at all, I’ll explain why, correct me where I am wrong.
Firstly, what was so special about Boris winning the red wall? I would answer zilch, absolutely nothing. Someone else could be associated with listening to these globalisation ravaged communities for the first time in decades, someone else could promise them levelling up, and achieve that same result as Boris, it wasn’t him but the message, the not taking you for granted but levelling you up with influx of investment flipped the votes from Labour - this is why these red wall communities voted for both Brexit and Boris - not for Boris, but for hope, for change.
If I am right, how do Labour fight back? The answers obvious, they need to match the promises of investment, they need to offer the same hope. They need to offer change they didn’t deliver in the past.
Have Labour been doing this? Nope.
Why should you win back the red wall from Tories by doing nothing?
Replacing the ridiculous Johnson, the Tory’s still have the red wall vote - it’s not personal to Johnson, if it’s based on levelling up investment and hope for better future, it’s personal to Brexit. If Labour continue with their do nothing approach this will take years to unwind itself.
One important caveat, though.
In 2019, there wasn't a Green candidate in Wakefield; this poll puts the Greens on 8 % this time round. One picture of the churn is a Con to Lab swing of about 16 points, with Labour then dropping 8 points to the Greens further left.
It's almost certainly not as neat as that, but it highlights the huge impact local factors can have.
(It's interesting to speculate what Red Wall Voters want; given that they tend to be older and comfortably off- sterotypically retired and with the mortgage on their Right to Buy houses paid off- is it more change, less change or reversed change that will appeal most?)
We don't know which voters have switched how. I'd guess it's Con down 16 points, with 8 points going to Labour and 8 points going Green. There are lots of people who will vote Green as a NOTA party. I don't think the general electorate see the Green Party as to the left of Labour.
No, I think that about half of the Green vote is Corbynite youngsters who dislike Starmer. Think of it as a more sophisticated version of BJO.
Very impressive light show. In a country with this level of creativity who could have thought it a smart idea to make Nadine Dorries Minister of Culture?
The BBC will have spent god knows how many thousands of hours organizing the outside broadcasts for this weekend's events.
I know Nadine hates them, but does the average tory member really want the Beeb to be reduced to the point that they will not be able to do this kind of national event any more?
I don't think so. I suspect the Beeb is more popular amongst tory members than wider population.
Reshuffle her out.
I mean no one had ever said the BBC shouldn't exist, just that a tax to pay for it by threat of imprisonment doesn't work in the age of Netflix and YouTube....
Comments
Not sure. But I doubt simply changing the leader without altering the attitude, tone or addressing the absence of any discernible direction or coherent plan is quite a magic bullet.
These are equally issues for Labour and Tory. Apart from unicorns which involve detaching spending, taxing and borrowing as if they can be separated; and unicorns about Europe, I haven't heard much.
For example, I occasionally hear bleats from 'low tax' supporting Tories but never see the plan as it relates to the rest of the equation. And Labour have the same problem.
What a fantastic day of test cricket. Magic.
https://twitter.com/le_petit_cochon/status/1533179693985308673
Wakefield is only 38th on the Labour target list, the Tories could win a small majority and lose that.
Bishop Auckland is though 105th on the Labour target list, so Labour could win most seats and the Tories hold that.
Great Grimsby is 134th on the Labour target list, so Labour could even win a majority and the Conservatives still hold that
Edit: Make that 60 minutes. The leading edge is frizzling.
The boundaries pre-2010 make it incomparable really. Only three of the six wards remain.
So it isn't really the same seat except by name.
I wonder if anyone will do a Ukrainian voice-over...?
Simply magnificent show
Only the UK has Buckingham Palace.
Alternatively, even with a smaller gap between parties, clear evidence of Con to Lab support lifting the Labour share would leave us more assured Labour could be making red wall recovery regardless of change of leader.
Colour me unconvinced Labour winning Wakefield means much at all, I’ll explain why, correct me where I am wrong.
Firstly, what was so special about Boris winning the red wall? I would answer zilch, absolutely nothing. Someone else could be associated with listening to these globalisation ravaged communities for the first time in decades, someone else could promise them levelling up, and achieve that same result as Boris, it wasn’t him but the message, the not taking you for granted but levelling you up with influx of investment flipped the votes from Labour - this is why these red wall communities voted for both Brexit and Boris - not for Boris, but for hope, for change.
If I am right, how do Labour fight back? The answers obvious, they need to match the promises of investment, they need to offer the same hope. They need to offer change they didn’t deliver in the past.
Have Labour been doing this? Nope.
Why should you win back the red wall from Tories by doing nothing?
Replacing the ridiculous Johnson, the Tory’s still have the red wall vote - it’s not personal to Johnson, if it’s based on levelling up investment and hope for better future, it’s personal to Brexit. If Labour continue with their do nothing approach this will take years to unwind itself.
This is once every 70 years whereas that appears about every 7 hours ....
There's been Brexit and Boris.
Result. The levels of regional inequality have grown.
Influx of investment? Haven't seen it.
Although how different it is from other jubilees is open to debate.
Anyway, can't have anyone upstaging the Queen.
For all his many, many faults he seems to get climate change.
In 2019, there wasn't a Green candidate in Wakefield; this poll puts the Greens on 8 % this time round. One picture of the churn is a Con to Lab swing of about 16 points, with Labour then dropping 8 points to the Greens further left.
It's almost certainly not as neat as that, but it highlights the huge impact local factors can have.
(It's interesting to speculate what Red Wall Voters want; given that they tend to be older and comfortably off- sterotypically retired and with the mortgage on their Right to Buy houses paid off- is it more change, less change or reversed change that will appeal most?)
There's something that I've got to say to you...
When North Africa and India start to seriously lay out solar panels with interconnectors to rest of world e.g. Sahara and Morocco, then oil and gas are over.
No booing must have been a relief after earlier audience interaction.
I know Nadine hates them, but does the average tory member really want the Beeb to be reduced to the point that they will not be able to do this kind of national event any more?
I don't think so. I suspect the Beeb is more popular amongst tory members than wider population.
Reshuffle her out.
It's really amazing how much Boris as his coterie of chancers have trashed the Tory brand that this is now a sensible conclusion to come to.
Not that I put any value on patriotism, of course. I think it's the mark of the truly stupid. But it's a bar that the Conservatives set for themselves and they now can't reach it. Be concerned, Conservatives.
Fortunately, one bit of China has the freedom to remember.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/04/hundreds-gather-in-taiwan-to-mark-tiananmen-square-anniversary
https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/fredericknewspost.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/6/23/623b3e7f-5365-55a9-877a-21cb52b264aa/629a88dac1540.image.jpg?resize=375,500
Show your working there.
Or even Stephen Fry MBE.