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It’s looking like a wake for the Tories in Wakefield – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited June 13 in General
It’s looking like a wake for the Tories in Wakefield – politicalbetting.com

Wow. https://t.co/e3PLfLXp7O pic.twitter.com/51GxYYmHBy

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,063
    edited June 4
    First like Dominik Szoboszlai.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 17,000
    Let's all laugh at Phatboi big dog
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 48,722
    If that was an attempted pun, it was below your usual standards. Definitely dozy rather than a doozy.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 20,919
    IshmaelZ said:

    Let's all laugh at Phatboi big dog

    Are you in Sicily? Where?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 4,487
    In relation to the header, I assume Labour will win Wakefield, so it's hardly a "disastrous" loss for the Tories, more an expectation. However, a thumping Labour win combined with Tory embarrassment in Devon would probably be significant.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 101,700
    ydoethur said:

    If that was an attempted pun, it was below your usual standards. Definitely dozy rather than a doozy.

    I’m in a restaurant, was trying not to piss off the other half. Just went for something quick and easy.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 5,483
    Wm Hills 4/1 Tory T and H and Lab Wakefield may be value.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 4,487

    ydoethur said:

    If that was an attempted pun, it was below your usual standards. Definitely dozy rather than a doozy.

    I’m in a restaurant, was trying not to piss off the other half. Just went for something quick and easy.
    Steak and chips?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 17,000
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Let's all laugh at Phatboi big dog

    Are you in Sicily? Where?
    Madonie national park, gearing up for 6 days riding Eastwards Etna way.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 101,700

    ydoethur said:

    If that was an attempted pun, it was below your usual standards. Definitely dozy rather than a doozy.

    I’m in a restaurant, was trying not to piss off the other half. Just went for something quick and easy.
    Steak and chips?
    Dover sole.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,942
    edited June 4
    Even Michael Foot, Neil Kinnock, Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband won Wakefield. The Tories losing Wakefield would not be curtains for Boris, only Brexit, Boris and the hapless Corbyn won it for them in 2019.

    If however they lost Tiverton and Honiton too on the same night, a seat which has been held by the Tories since its creation in 1997, which voted Leave and where there is a better local candidate than in North Shropshire, then that could be fatal for Johnson
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 6,969
    Not often I want England to win, so of course they lost
  • LeonLeon Posts: 20,919
    HYUFD said:

    Even Michael Foot, Neil Kinnock, Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband won Wakefield. The Tories losing Wakefield would not be curtains for Boris, only Brexit, Boris and the hapless Corbyn won it for them in 2019.

    If however they lost Tiverton and Honiton too on the same night, a seat which has been held by the Tories since its creation in 1997, then that could be fatal for Johnson

    They will surely lose both
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 6,969

    ydoethur said:

    If that was an attempted pun, it was below your usual standards. Definitely dozy rather than a doozy.

    I’m in a restaurant, was trying not to piss off the other half. Just went for something quick and easy.
    It's not even a pun. Wakefield literally means the field of the wake. Wake is cognate with watch, by the way.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,434
    edited June 4
    No point waiting on the results for Wakefield, backbenchers.

    HYUFD is right losing the seat itself is not necessarily a disaster, but a really big loss would still not be a good sign - it hasn't had a big Labour majority since 1997.

    Yes yes, mid term government losses is not atypical either, across the breadth of history, but it's still not a good sign - surely one reason governments turn things around despite mid term by-election losses is that they react to those losses?

    Doing nothing because the current set up won in the last election is what Corbyn and the gang did after 2017 (substituting 'exceeded expectations' for 'won'), just assuming it will work again.

    Doing something is a risk, yes, you cannot be certain what will work, but taking a risk is often better than doing nothing.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 20,919
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Let's all laugh at Phatboi big dog

    Are you in Sicily? Where?
    Madonie national park, gearing up for 6 days riding Eastwards Etna way.

    Fabulous corner of the Med. Enjoy

    Check out the Palermo catacombs if you have not been
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,942
    edited June 4
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Even Michael Foot, Neil Kinnock, Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband won Wakefield. The Tories losing Wakefield would not be curtains for Boris, only Brexit, Boris and the hapless Corbyn won it for them in 2019.

    If however they lost Tiverton and Honiton too on the same night, a seat which has been held by the Tories since its creation in 1997, then that could be fatal for Johnson

    They will surely lose both
    Not necessarily, MarqueeMark said the Tory vote was holding up better than expected in Tiverton and Honiton when he canvassed there and there is a good local woman as Tory candidate
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,679
    The Wakefield poll is a whole lot less interesting when you realise it’s from a fortnight or more ago. In a by-election campaign that’s an eternity.

    That said, the last time the Tories got 28% in Wakefield was 1997.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 48,722
    Well, after the damp start @Heathener had her money's worth.

    England have taken New Zealand to a fourth day. Don't think anyone foresaw that at the start.

    And they've even kept the margin of defeat to less than 60 runs.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 14,139
    ydoethur said:

    If that was an attempted pun, it was below your usual standards. Definitely dozy rather than a doozy.

    Wake for Boris, just before he go-gos?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,935
    Boris' USP is, of course, that he, and he alone, can win places like Wakefield.
    Someone's sat on this poll for a while.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,614
    ydoethur said:

    Well, after the damp start @Heathener had her money's worth.

    England have taken New Zealand to a fourth day. Don't think anyone foresaw that at the start.

    And they've even kept the margin of defeat to less than 60 runs.

    If Root can stay there for 10 more overs... 👍

    If...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 20,919
    edited June 4
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Even Michael Foot, Neil Kinnock, Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband won Wakefield. The Tories losing Wakefield would not be curtains for Boris, only Brexit, Boris and the hapless Corbyn won it for them in 2019.

    If however they lost Tiverton and Honiton too on the same night, a seat which has been held by the Tories since its creation in 1997, then that could be fatal for Johnson

    They will surely lose both
    Not necessarily, MarqueeMark said the Tory vote was holding up better than expected in Tiverton and Honiton when he canvassed there and there is a good local woman as Tory candidate
    It’s time to accept that Boris is a drag-anchor. And there are better options

    Remember, if Boris goes then that throws Labour into turmoil, as Sir Beer Korma will then come under intense scrutiny

    We need the public to look at Labour and realise they are a bunch of useless Woke jerks. Which they are. Until Boris goes, that will be impossible
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,942
    edited June 4
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Even Michael Foot, Neil Kinnock, Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband won Wakefield. The Tories losing Wakefield would not be curtains for Boris, only Brexit, Boris and the hapless Corbyn won it for them in 2019.

    If however they lost Tiverton and Honiton too on the same night, a seat which has been held by the Tories since its creation in 1997, then that could be fatal for Johnson

    They will surely lose both
    Not necessarily, MarqueeMark said the Tory vote was holding up better than expected in Tiverton and Honiton when he canvassed there and there is a good local woman as Tory candidate
    It’s time to accept that Boris is a drag-anchor. And there are better options

    Remember, if Boris goes then that throws Labour into turmoil, as Sir Beer Korma will then come under intense scrutiny

    We need the public to look at Labour and realise they are a bunch of useless Woke jerks. Which they are. Until Boris goes, that will be impossible
    Depends who the replacement is. Patel or Raab or Truss as Tory leader might even see a further swing to Labour. Sunak is as caught in partygate as Boris having also been fined.

    Hunt and Wallace are even more boring than Starmer.

    Mordaunt might get a brief bounce but no guarantee she even gets to the membership vote
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,679
    This poll was done before the Gray report was published and before Sunak’s energy windfall u-turn. It’s from another age!!
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 18,484
    Not sure what's funnier - Wakefield going 20 points to Labour or HY saying that Wakefield Tory voters who elected them in 2019 weren't real Tories and that the party didn't need the seat or the 80 majority etc etc etc
  • kjhkjh Posts: 6,609
    edited June 4
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    It is the year 2067, and as the Earthite Alliance of Humanoid Droids guided by Official Death God GPT68 fires hypersonic Inviso-Jesus infra-sad missiles at the Lost Cathedral of Parallel Proxima Fuckauri 9, dominated by its Bkkrprprk mono-president VVVVVVVrrpptywoo 3X7Musk Dalle900 WhoahBump, on PB,.com, @Scott_xP cuts and pastes a tweet that finally throws Brexit in a bad light

    SeanT reincarnates on PB. Again. Still voted for this shitshow...
    Honest question.

    Do you think you’ll be furiously angry about Brexit until you die?

    Genuinely curious. It is surely possible. History is full of political events that made people so alienated they literally never got over it. The Irreconcilables

    @Leon Do you think you will be furiously angry about Brexit until you die also?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,942
    edited June 4

    Not sure what's funnier - Wakefield going 20 points to Labour or HY saying that Wakefield Tory voters who elected them in 2019 weren't real Tories and that the party didn't need the seat or the 80 majority etc etc etc

    Wakefield is the 38th Labour target seat, technically the Tories could lose Wakefield and still win a small majority.

    Lose Tiverton and Honiton however at a general election and the Tories would face an even worse landslide defeat than 1997
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 101,700
    Updated the thread header
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,188
    HYUFD said:

    Not sure what's funnier - Wakefield going 20 points to Labour or HY saying that Wakefield Tory voters who elected them in 2019 weren't real Tories and that the party didn't need the seat or the 80 majority etc etc etc

    Wakefield is the 38th Labour target seat, technically the Tories could lose Wakefield and still win a small majority
    You really are in a fantasy world all of your own, well maybe with Nadine !!!

    its over
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,070
    CUT OUT AND KEEP: I've been crunching numbers in case of a vote of no-confidence to compare results
    If the rebels get:
    121 votes: Johnson will have done as badly % wise as John Major in 1995
    133 votes: Worse than May in 2018
    147 votes: Worse than Thatcher v Heseltine in 1990
    https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1533142632167358464
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,935
    For comparison. The Council results.for the constituency were.

    Lab 52, Con 31, YP 6, Green 6, LD 4.

    So. Not entirely sure where the surprise is?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 6,609
    It is interesting, although of no consequence whatsoever, that the LD vote appears to be going up. I presume they are doing absolutely nothing and normally in these circumstances they get next to nothing.

    And where is the Yorkshire party? I assume David is going to get a measurable vote. Is he most of the remaining 6%. Is he going to cream some from the Greens and LDs?
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 19,419
    How does Wakefield poll compare to pre 2019 results? Is it reversion or a genuine improvement?
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 2,236
    I would say it is likely that Johnson will keep going. It always goes like this. Everyone furiously speculates, particularly on PB, that the PM is going to go.... but statistically, and based on historical experience, the probability is that he stays. PM's either have a massive fuck up, like Brexit (Cameron), or no Brexit solution (May), or else they get voted out (Brown) or otherwise they tend to stick around for a decade or so before they are moved on (Blair , Thatcher).

    Partygate isn't a crisis of Brexit proportions, he has passed the worst, and the Starmer stuff has watered it all down. Johnson will just keep going. Of course he will spectacularly lose by elections, but it isn't very long since he was winning them in a similarly spectacular fashion. Wakefield is going to be a non issue for the tories because of the unfortunate circumstances in which it arose. Johnson getting booed; not great but he has always been a divisive character and he will just shrug it off, or come up with some ridiculous explanation.

    There are other things that work massively in his favour - the most obvious one being that there is no successor. But also, that the 2019 victory was entirely of his own making and came a few months after it looked like the conservative party were on the verge of extinction.

    It goes massively against what people want to hear, and I am no particular fan of him myself, I'd rather have Starmer as PM (if he could dump the labour party and join the tories). But I honestly think the value is in betting on Johnson staying.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 50,613

    Not sure what's funnier - Wakefield going 20 points to Labour or HY saying that Wakefield Tory voters who elected them in 2019 weren't real Tories and that the party didn't need the seat or the 80 majority etc etc etc

    If the Opposition can't win a seat like Wakefield at a by-election in the mid-term during an economic mess then there is something wrong in the state of Denmark.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,679
    dixiedean said:

    For comparison. The Council results.for the constituency were.

    Lab 52, Con 31, YP 6, Green 6, LD 4.

    So. Not entirely sure where the surprise is?

    No Yorkshire party in the opinion poll. They weren’t prompted for. So who do they take votes from? I bet it’s mostly the Tories.

  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 19,419
    darkage said:

    I would say it is likely that Johnson will keep going. It always goes like this. Everyone furiously speculates, particularly on PB, that the PM is going to go.... but statistically, and based on historical experience, the probability is that he stays. PM's either have a massive fuck up, like Brexit (Cameron), or no Brexit solution (May), or else they get voted out (Brown) or otherwise they tend to stick around for a decade or so before they are moved on (Blair , Thatcher).

    Partygate isn't a crisis of Brexit proportions, he has passed the worst, and the Starmer stuff has watered it all down. Johnson will just keep going. Of course he will spectacularly lose by elections, but it isn't very long since he was winning them in a similarly spectacular fashion. Wakefield is going to be a non issue for the tories because of the unfortunate circumstances in which it arose. Johnson getting booed; not great but he has always been a divisive character and he will just shrug it off, or come up with some ridiculous explanation.

    There are other things that work massively in his favour - the most obvious one being that there is no successor. But also, that the 2019 victory was entirely of his own making and came a few months after it looked like the conservative party were on the verge of extinction.

    It goes massively against what people want to hear, and I am no particular fan of him myself, I'd rather have Starmer as PM (if he could dump the labour party and join the tories). But I honestly think the value is in betting on Johnson staying.

    I have believed for months, that BoJo will lead the Tories into the next election.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,561
    I think Mordaunt as leader would stand a very good chance of getting a majority at GE. She comes over well (so far) makes SKS look very stale male. She will be a new brush and can convey an end to the silly male japes of the BoJo regime without appearing too puritanical. Some other potential Tory leadership candidates could well lead to a big labour win.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 6,007

    How does Wakefield poll compare to pre 2019 results? Is it reversion or a genuine improvement?

    2017 was L50 C45
    2015 was L40 C34

    Question is- does ditching Big Dog save the seat, or is it gone anyway because people don't like having no spare money?

    The Conservatives will never know unless they suck it and see.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,003

    darkage said:

    I would say it is likely that Johnson will keep going. It always goes like this. Everyone furiously speculates, particularly on PB, that the PM is going to go.... but statistically, and based on historical experience, the probability is that he stays. PM's either have a massive fuck up, like Brexit (Cameron), or no Brexit solution (May), or else they get voted out (Brown) or otherwise they tend to stick around for a decade or so before they are moved on (Blair , Thatcher).

    Partygate isn't a crisis of Brexit proportions, he has passed the worst, and the Starmer stuff has watered it all down. Johnson will just keep going. Of course he will spectacularly lose by elections, but it isn't very long since he was winning them in a similarly spectacular fashion. Wakefield is going to be a non issue for the tories because of the unfortunate circumstances in which it arose. Johnson getting booed; not great but he has always been a divisive character and he will just shrug it off, or come up with some ridiculous explanation.

    There are other things that work massively in his favour - the most obvious one being that there is no successor. But also, that the 2019 victory was entirely of his own making and came a few months after it looked like the conservative party were on the verge of extinction.

    It goes massively against what people want to hear, and I am no particular fan of him myself, I'd rather have Starmer as PM (if he could dump the labour party and join the tories). But I honestly think the value is in betting on Johnson staying.

    I have believed for months, that BoJo will lead the Tories into the next election.
    Depends - how much has the Tory party become the cult of Boris? Presumably a large chunk - if the party is full of HFUYD types, then it heads towards a well deserved thrashing
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 48,722
    edited June 4

    HYUFD said:

    Not sure what's funnier - Wakefield going 20 points to Labour or HY saying that Wakefield Tory voters who elected them in 2019 weren't real Tories and that the party didn't need the seat or the 80 majority etc etc etc

    Wakefield is the 38th Labour target seat, technically the Tories could lose Wakefield and still win a small majority
    You really are in a fantasy world all of your own, well maybe with Nadine !!!

    its over
    I could have done without the mental image of Nadine Dorries as the star of somebody's fantasy...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,935
    edited June 4

    dixiedean said:

    For comparison. The Council results.for the constituency were.

    Lab 52, Con 31, YP 6, Green 6, LD 4.

    So. Not entirely sure where the surprise is?

    No Yorkshire party in the opinion poll. They weren’t prompted for. So who do they take votes from? I bet it’s mostly the Tories.

    Their vote in the Councils was much higher in the 2 (of 6) wards which went Tory. So. Probably.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,043
    How long will Tory MPs remain in denial about the deadweight that is dragging them down?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 1,623

    I think Mordaunt as leader would stand a very good chance of getting a majority at GE. She comes over well (so far) makes SKS look very stale male. She will be a new brush and can convey an end to the silly male japes of the BoJo regime without appearing too puritanical. Some other potential Tory leadership candidates could well lead to a big labour win.

    She’s a blank canvas, which helps, but as I commented in the last thread I’m not sure what exactly you’d be voting FOR with her, other than “not Boris”.

    The rest of the cabinet will be an important factor whoever takes over PM. If it still contains the likes of Patel, Gove and Raab (I assume Dorries and JRM will be put out to pasture come what may) then there will be enough there to remind people of the bad bits of the ancien régime.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 50,613
    Tiverton is far far more interesting than Wakefield.

    If Liberals win there overturning a majority of, what, 20K, then every Tory in South and West will be panicking.

  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 6,007

    I think Mordaunt as leader would stand a very good chance of getting a majority at GE. She comes over well (so far) makes SKS look very stale male. She will be a new brush and can convey an end to the silly male japes of the BoJo regime without appearing too puritanical. Some other potential Tory leadership candidates could well lead to a big labour win.

    As a campaigner, quite possibly. But she has the benefit of being a bit of a blank screen to project fantasy politics onto at the moment.

    But as a Prime Minister? Because any successor to BoJo won't be able to call a snap election- the economics are just too grisly. So can PM be a competent PM for a couple of years? Can anyone on the long list?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 48,722
    IanB2 said:

    How long will Tory MPs remain in denial about the deadweight that is dragging them down?

    If they've got a dead weight, getting out of de Nile is going to be much harder.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 1,623

    dixiedean said:

    For comparison. The Council results.for the constituency were.

    Lab 52, Con 31, YP 6, Green 6, LD 4.

    So. Not entirely sure where the surprise is?

    No Yorkshire party in the opinion poll. They weren’t prompted for. So who do they take votes from? I bet it’s mostly the Tories.

    Interesting that REFUK were only on 3% and down from the last poll. So no evidence of angry Tories lending their votes to another right wing option.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 1,385
    Mordaunt ! Great hair but when you look at some of her comments re Brexit she’s sadly just another nutjob who has an unhinged hatred of the EU .
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 50,613
    edited June 4
    Times reporting claims that 67 letters are in.

    Seems an overly accurate figure to me.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 7,861
    This is before Herdson's campaign kicks into gear and splits the anti-Tory vote!

    Could be a tight three-way split...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,070
    Tom Tugendhat has quietly built a support base and has donors lined up. Penny Mordaunt, the minister for trade policy, is also expected to run. It is understood that Rishi Sunak now believes his standing with the public is not as bad as his critics claim and he could still run
    https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1533158360983420932
  • TimSTimS Posts: 1,623

    Tiverton is far far more interesting than Wakefield.

    If Liberals win there overturning a majority of, what, 20K, then every Tory in South and West will be panicking.

    Tiverton also offers a turning point if the Tories can hold on to it. To coin a popular term, a suggestion the anti-Boris (or anti-Govt) attack has culminated.

    It’s a mountain to climb for the LDs and quite possibly some useful expectation management going on.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 101,700

    Times reporting claims that 67 letters are in.

    Seems an overly accurate figure to me.

    One rebel, who has been keeping a private tally, believes that up to 67 letters have gone in.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 50,613

    Times reporting claims that 67 letters are in.

    Seems an overly accurate figure to me.

    One rebel, who has been keeping a private tally, believes that up to 67 letters have gone in.
    "up to"

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,070

    Times reporting claims that 67 letters are in.

    Seems an overly accurate figure to me.

    One rebel, who has been keeping a private tally, believes that up to 67 letters have gone in.
    the latter would be a ratio of 52:48 https://twitter.com/shippersunbound/status/1533136601794093057
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 50,613
    Scott_xP said:

    Tom Tugendhat has quietly built a support base and has donors lined up. Penny Mordaunt, the minister for trade policy, is also expected to run. It is understood that Rishi Sunak now believes his standing with the public is not as bad as his critics claim and he could still run
    https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1533158360983420932

    I definitely think Sunak will run.

    He would be mad not to.

    Who knows what can happen during the actual campaign that would trump worries about his wife's wealth and non-dom and all that.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 20,919
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    It is the year 2067, and as the Earthite Alliance of Humanoid Droids guided by Official Death God GPT68 fires hypersonic Inviso-Jesus infra-sad missiles at the Lost Cathedral of Parallel Proxima Fuckauri 9, dominated by its Bkkrprprk mono-president VVVVVVVrrpptywoo 3X7Musk Dalle900 WhoahBump, on PB,.com, @Scott_xP cuts and pastes a tweet that finally throws Brexit in a bad light

    SeanT reincarnates on PB. Again. Still voted for this shitshow...
    Honest question.

    Do you think you’ll be furiously angry about Brexit until you die?

    Genuinely curious. It is surely possible. History is full of political events that made people so alienated they literally never got over it. The Irreconcilables

    @Leon Do you think you will be furiously angry about Brexit until you die also?
    Given that I am pleased about Brexit, unlikely

    I will loathe the 2nd voters, until they are put in jail. That is true
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,070
    Boris Johnson Called “Conservative Corbyn” As Partygate Scandal Clouds People’s View Of Cost Of Living Response https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/government-cost-of-living-policies-fall-flat-damaged-prime-minister-polls
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 50,613
    nico679 said:

    Mordaunt ! Great hair but when you look at some of her comments re Brexit she’s sadly just another nutjob who has an unhinged hatred of the EU .

    Sounds like she will sweep the ageing tory membership off their feet then?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 1,913
    Scott_xP said:

    CUT OUT AND KEEP: I've been crunching numbers in case of a vote of no-confidence to compare results
    If the rebels get:
    121 votes: Johnson will have done as badly % wise as John Major in 1995
    133 votes: Worse than May in 2018
    147 votes: Worse than Thatcher v Heseltine in 1990
    https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1533142632167358464

    X/y * z

    Repeat 3 times

    I’m not sure that qualifies as “crunching numbers”!
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 1,385

    nico679 said:

    Mordaunt ! Great hair but when you look at some of her comments re Brexit she’s sadly just another nutjob who has an unhinged hatred of the EU .

    Sounds like she will sweep the ageing tory membership off their feet then?
    True . The more hatefilled and xenophobic the more popular she’ll be with the membership.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,877
    TimS said:

    dixiedean said:

    For comparison. The Council results.for the constituency were.

    Lab 52, Con 31, YP 6, Green 6, LD 4.

    So. Not entirely sure where the surprise is?

    No Yorkshire party in the opinion poll. They weren’t prompted for. So who do they take votes from? I bet it’s mostly the Tories.

    Interesting that REFUK were only on 3% and down from the last poll. So no evidence of angry Tories lending their votes to another right wing option.
    Actually +8 for Labour is pretty abysmal. This is pointing to a poor mid term by election for Labour if they take the seat on basis of stay at home till general election Tory votes, not getting much more than 8% from switchers themselves.

    Tell me I’m wrong.

    But without switchers, without much improvement in labours vote from last time, it’s not painting a convincing red wall picture for Labour, as indeed the locals were a mixed bag across the red wall.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,063
    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Mordaunt ! Great hair but when you look at some of her comments re Brexit she’s sadly just another nutjob who has an unhinged hatred of the EU .

    Sounds like she will sweep the ageing tory membership off their feet then?
    True . The more hatefilled and xenophobic the more popular she’ll be with the membership.
    "hatefilled", he says, without a trace of irony...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 50,613

    Scott_xP said:

    CUT OUT AND KEEP: I've been crunching numbers in case of a vote of no-confidence to compare results
    If the rebels get:
    121 votes: Johnson will have done as badly % wise as John Major in 1995
    133 votes: Worse than May in 2018
    147 votes: Worse than Thatcher v Heseltine in 1990
    https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1533142632167358464

    X/y * z

    Repeat 3 times

    I’m not sure that qualifies as “crunching numbers”!
    Philip Colins in Newstatesman this weekend says 63% is being put about by backbenchers as the minimum threshold.

    May won that threshold and then was gone a few months later.

    "defeat in disguise"

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,942
    Brian May on the Queen Victoria statue outside Buckingham Palace as this year's Jubilee concert starts
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,935
    HYUFD said:

    Brian May on the Queen Victoria statue outside Buckingham Palace as this year's Jubilee concert starts

    Surely that's a criminal offence nowadays?
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,063
    Adam Lambert has some definite George Michael vibes going on.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,260
    edited June 4


    Actually +8 for Labour is pretty abysmal. This is pointing to a poor mid term by election for Labour if they take the seat on basis of stay at home till general election Tory votes, not getting much more than 8% from switchers themselves.

    Tell me I’m wrong.

    But without switchers, without much improvement in labours vote from last time, it’s not painting a convincing red wall picture for Labour, as indeed the locals were a mixed bag across the red wall.

    The key number is Conservative down 18. As we saw in the locals and mirrored in Australia, the collapse of the centre-right isn't being matched by a consequent rise in the centre-left but by disillusioned voters seeking out other alternatives. The 13% swing will still look good for Labour if that's what happened.

    I'm increasingly of the view the fragmentation of the Conservative vote will, even under FPTP, help any other party or independent who can establish themselves as the clear alternative.

  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 5,623
    Applicant said:

    HYUFD said:

    Brian May on the Queen Victoria statue outside Buckingham Palace as this year's Jubilee concert starts

    HM with Paddington was adorable.
    HM on percussion with her namesake band...
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,003
    Ah.. party gate reference 😂
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,030
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    It is the year 2067, and as the Earthite Alliance of Humanoid Droids guided by Official Death God GPT68 fires hypersonic Inviso-Jesus infra-sad missiles at the Lost Cathedral of Parallel Proxima Fuckauri 9, dominated by its Bkkrprprk mono-president VVVVVVVrrpptywoo 3X7Musk Dalle900 WhoahBump, on PB,.com, @Scott_xP cuts and pastes a tweet that finally throws Brexit in a bad light

    SeanT reincarnates on PB. Again. Still voted for this shitshow...
    Honest question.

    Do you think you’ll be furiously angry about Brexit until you die?

    Genuinely curious. It is surely possible. History is full of political events that made people so alienated they literally never got over it. The Irreconcilables

    @Leon Do you think you will be furiously angry about Brexit until you die also?
    "Brexit is like doing a jigsaw. A pointless way to pass the time until you die."
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,030

    Scott_xP said:

    CUT OUT AND KEEP: I've been crunching numbers in case of a vote of no-confidence to compare results
    If the rebels get:
    121 votes: Johnson will have done as badly % wise as John Major in 1995
    133 votes: Worse than May in 2018
    147 votes: Worse than Thatcher v Heseltine in 1990
    https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1533142632167358464

    X/y * z

    Repeat 3 times

    I’m not sure that qualifies as “crunching numbers”!
    Certainly "crunch-time".
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,030
    Applicant said:

    Adam Lambert has some definite George Michael vibes going on.

    Here we are
    Born to be Queens
    We're the Princes of the Universe!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,448

    This poll was done before the Gray report was published and before Sunak’s energy windfall u-turn. It’s from another age!!

    That's right. It's positively Oligocene.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,448
    TimS said:

    Tiverton is far far more interesting than Wakefield.

    If Liberals win there overturning a majority of, what, 20K, then every Tory in South and West will be panicking.

    Tiverton also offers a turning point if the Tories can hold on to it. To coin a popular term, a suggestion the anti-Boris (or anti-Govt) attack has culminated.

    It’s a mountain to climb for the LDs and quite possibly some useful expectation management going on.

    Not to mention expedition management.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,063
    Theresa May getting triggered by the Citizens of the World Choir, no doubt.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,188
    What an amazing opening to tonight's show with HMQ and Paddington Bear sketch just wonderful and quite the most inspiring and uplifting musical introduction

    We all needed that
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,063
    You would have thought someone would have taught this guy how to pronounce David Bowie's name.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,877

    This poll was done before the Gray report was published and before Sunak’s energy windfall u-turn. It’s from another age!!

    No problem. This poll is useful, you only need to add on fact the Tory national position has worsten since this poll stopped.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 44,306
    WIfey and I wondering what Elton will sing.

    She got the prize with Rocket, Ma'am.....
  • TazTaz Posts: 5,041
    The best thing about the concert is I can turn it off. Chaz and co have to endure this crap.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 7,841
    Taz said:

    The best thing about the concert is I can turn it off. Chaz and co have to endure this crap.

    Scraping the barrel with Craig David I think. He was barely famous when he was famous.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,003

    Taz said:

    The best thing about the concert is I can turn it off. Chaz and co have to endure this crap.

    Scraping the barrel with Craig David I think. He was barely famous when he was famous.
    Na - he’s had a bit of a renaissance recently.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 40,433

    Taz said:

    The best thing about the concert is I can turn it off. Chaz and co have to endure this crap.

    Scraping the barrel with Craig David I think. He was barely famous when he was famous.
    He doesn't look like I remember him.

    image
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,434
    Being generous and assuming he wants to be able to be a mediating power thanks to those otherwise thankless hours speaking to Putin enabling this, is France really best placed for that? I mean, whilst Macron's words today will have upset the Ukrainians they have still be more pro-Ukrainian than Russia would like of a mediator?

    "I am convinced it is France's role to be a mediating power" - says Macron, a man who has self admittedly spent 100 hours speaking to Putin over the past months and has accomplished absolutely fucking nothing.


    https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1533086172657876994
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,063

    Taz said:

    The best thing about the concert is I can turn it off. Chaz and co have to endure this crap.

    Scraping the barrel with Craig David I think. He was barely famous when he was famous.
    Na - he’s had a bit of a renaissance recently.
    The old joke was apparently still current last year.

    https://www.clashmusic.com/news/fans-keep-making-the-same-hilarious-edit-to-craig-davids-wiki-page
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,910

    TimS said:

    dixiedean said:

    For comparison. The Council results.for the constituency were.

    Lab 52, Con 31, YP 6, Green 6, LD 4.

    So. Not entirely sure where the surprise is?

    No Yorkshire party in the opinion poll. They weren’t prompted for. So who do they take votes from? I bet it’s mostly the Tories.

    Interesting that REFUK were only on 3% and down from the last poll. So no evidence of angry Tories lending their votes to another right wing option.
    Actually +8 for Labour is pretty abysmal. This is pointing to a poor mid term by election for Labour if they take the seat on basis of stay at home till general election Tory votes, not getting much more than 8% from switchers themselves.

    Tell me I’m wrong.

    But without switchers, without much improvement in labours vote from last time, it’s not painting a convincing red wall picture for Labour, as indeed the locals were a mixed bag across the red wall.
    I agree there isn't massive enthusiasm for Labour, but I think this poll fits in with a trend in local elections too that the Tories (particularly under Johnson) are becoming so disliked by so many groups that so long as Labour are seen as decent voters will tactically do what it takes to punish the Tories worse than the national polls may suggest.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,877
    stodge said:


    Actually +8 for Labour is pretty abysmal. This is pointing to a poor mid term by election for Labour if they take the seat on basis of stay at home till general election Tory votes, not getting much more than 8% from switchers themselves.

    Tell me I’m wrong.

    But without switchers, without much improvement in labours vote from last time, it’s not painting a convincing red wall picture for Labour, as indeed the locals were a mixed bag across the red wall.

    The key number is Conservative down 18. As we saw in the locals and mirrored in Australia, the collapse of the centre-right isn't being matched by a consequent rise in the centre-left but by disillusioned voters seeking out other alternatives. The 13% swing will still look good for Labour if that's what happened.

    I'm increasingly of the view the fragmentation of the Conservative vote will, even under FPTP, help any other party or independent who can establish themselves as the clear alternative.

    The truth is, Labor in Australia suffered similar loss of votes to non establishment places, the 1pp Lab share was below every poll except the one we were thinking was a rough poll but turned out with lowest labour share and government win by 3% on 1pp most accurate. The same thing happening in France, in extreme way. So to that extent I am agreeing with you, lost votes for Tories hurt them, tactical voting hurts them - also as a by product, those calling for labour double digit or 20% polling leads as necessary are wrong in this new era of diverse polling.

    However, where I think you are wrong is two fold. Firstly, this is a labour/Tory battleground seat, bellwether, not much presence from other parties to make a difference - in the Aussie comparison Wakefield would not be a teal win helpful for Labour, it would be a Lab target indicative of where we are today on their battlefield for seat total for themself!

    Which supports me in what I am saying, do we measure what course labour are on this mid term by the number of Tory’s staying at home handing labour seat, or by the % the Lab share grows due to switching? I think the latter, gap between parties would disappoint me here if I was a leader here, if our own stock isn’t rising the gap is merely Boris unpopularity. Why. Because it would give me no assurance I’m on course.

    Stay at home vote is a different thing than switched vote, it’s softer, change of Tory leader the softer stay at home vote could swing back. To get excited about gap back to a collapsed Tory share would be immature pesodolphinolgy here if the truth is a huge soft vote prone to swingback.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 48,722
    Cyclefree said:

    Yes, yes, all very well.

    But in real news Paddington has tea with the Queen.

    What an inspired and delightful start to the concert.

    Whoever came up with that is going to be unbearably smug.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,877

    Tiverton is far far more interesting than Wakefield.

    If Liberals win there overturning a majority of, what, 20K, then every Tory in South and West will be panicking.

    I’m not sure. This is mid term, GE night could still be so different in Tivi regardless who the Tory leader is. It’s also a vacant seat without incumbent is another reason not to be panicking.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 18,806
    Boris appears to be enjoying it

    SKS looks bored
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,030

    WIfey and I wondering what Elton will sing.

    She got the prize with Rocket, Ma'am.....

    Elizabeth Line should merit some "Passengers"?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 17,000
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Let's all laugh at Phatboi big dog

    Are you in Sicily? Where?
    Madonie national park, gearing up for 6 days riding Eastwards Etna way.

    Fabulous corner of the Med. Enjoy

    Check out the Palermo catacombs if you have not been
    Will do

    Also I am obsessed with growing Citrus trees - 140 varieties in Palermo botanic gardens apparently

    And going to Syracuse to map out the Athenian disaster of 413bc
This discussion has been closed.