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It’s looking like a wake for the Tories in Wakefield – politicalbetting.com
It’s looking like a wake for the Tories in Wakefield – politicalbetting.com
Wow. https://t.co/e3PLfLXp7O pic.twitter.com/51GxYYmHBy
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If however they lost Tiverton and Honiton too on the same night, a seat which has been held by the Tories since its creation in 1997, which voted Leave and where there is a better local candidate than in North Shropshire, then that could be fatal for Johnson
HYUFD is right losing the seat itself is not necessarily a disaster, but a really big loss would still not be a good sign - it hasn't had a big Labour majority since 1997.
Yes yes, mid term government losses is not atypical either, across the breadth of history, but it's still not a good sign - surely one reason governments turn things around despite mid term by-election losses is that they react to those losses?
Doing nothing because the current set up won in the last election is what Corbyn and the gang did after 2017 (substituting 'exceeded expectations' for 'won'), just assuming it will work again.
Doing something is a risk, yes, you cannot be certain what will work, but taking a risk is often better than doing nothing.
Fabulous corner of the Med. Enjoy
Check out the Palermo catacombs if you have not been
That said, the last time the Tories got 28% in Wakefield was 1997.
England have taken New Zealand to a fourth day. Don't think anyone foresaw that at the start.
And they've even kept the margin of defeat to less than 60 runs.
Someone's sat on this poll for a while.
If...
Remember, if Boris goes then that throws Labour into turmoil, as Sir Beer Korma will then come under intense scrutiny
We need the public to look at Labour and realise they are a bunch of useless Woke jerks. Which they are. Until Boris goes, that will be impossible
Hunt and Wallace are even more boring than Starmer.
Mordaunt might get a brief bounce but no guarantee she even gets to the membership vote
@Leon Do you think you will be furiously angry about Brexit until you die also?
Lose Tiverton and Honiton however at a general election and the Tories would face an even worse landslide defeat than 1997
its over
If the rebels get:
121 votes: Johnson will have done as badly % wise as John Major in 1995
133 votes: Worse than May in 2018
147 votes: Worse than Thatcher v Heseltine in 1990
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1533142632167358464
Lab 52, Con 31, YP 6, Green 6, LD 4.
So. Not entirely sure where the surprise is?
And where is the Yorkshire party? I assume David is going to get a measurable vote. Is he most of the remaining 6%. Is he going to cream some from the Greens and LDs?
Partygate isn't a crisis of Brexit proportions, he has passed the worst, and the Starmer stuff has watered it all down. Johnson will just keep going. Of course he will spectacularly lose by elections, but it isn't very long since he was winning them in a similarly spectacular fashion. Wakefield is going to be a non issue for the tories because of the unfortunate circumstances in which it arose. Johnson getting booed; not great but he has always been a divisive character and he will just shrug it off, or come up with some ridiculous explanation.
There are other things that work massively in his favour - the most obvious one being that there is no successor. But also, that the 2019 victory was entirely of his own making and came a few months after it looked like the conservative party were on the verge of extinction.
It goes massively against what people want to hear, and I am no particular fan of him myself, I'd rather have Starmer as PM (if he could dump the labour party and join the tories). But I honestly think the value is in betting on Johnson staying.
2015 was L40 C34
Question is- does ditching Big Dog save the seat, or is it gone anyway because people don't like having no spare money?
The Conservatives will never know unless they suck it and see.
The rest of the cabinet will be an important factor whoever takes over PM. If it still contains the likes of Patel, Gove and Raab (I assume Dorries and JRM will be put out to pasture come what may) then there will be enough there to remind people of the bad bits of the ancien régime.
If Liberals win there overturning a majority of, what, 20K, then every Tory in South and West will be panicking.
But as a Prime Minister? Because any successor to BoJo won't be able to call a snap election- the economics are just too grisly. So can PM be a competent PM for a couple of years? Can anyone on the long list?
Seems an overly accurate figure to me.
Could be a tight three-way split...
https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1533158360983420932
It’s a mountain to climb for the LDs and quite possibly some useful expectation management going on.
He would be mad not to.
Who knows what can happen during the actual campaign that would trump worries about his wife's wealth and non-dom and all that.
I will loathe the 2nd voters, until they are put in jail. That is true
Repeat 3 times
I’m not sure that qualifies as “crunching numbers”!
Tell me I’m wrong.
But without switchers, without much improvement in labours vote from last time, it’s not painting a convincing red wall picture for Labour, as indeed the locals were a mixed bag across the red wall.
May won that threshold and then was gone a few months later.
"defeat in disguise"
I'm increasingly of the view the fragmentation of the Conservative vote will, even under FPTP, help any other party or independent who can establish themselves as the clear alternative.
Born to be Queens
We're the Princes of the Universe!
We all needed that
She got the prize with Rocket, Ma'am.....
"I am convinced it is France's role to be a mediating power" - says Macron, a man who has self admittedly spent 100 hours speaking to Putin over the past months and has accomplished absolutely fucking nothing.
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1533086172657876994
https://www.clashmusic.com/news/fans-keep-making-the-same-hilarious-edit-to-craig-davids-wiki-page
However, where I think you are wrong is two fold. Firstly, this is a labour/Tory battleground seat, bellwether, not much presence from other parties to make a difference - in the Aussie comparison Wakefield would not be a teal win helpful for Labour, it would be a Lab target indicative of where we are today on their battlefield for seat total for themself!
Which supports me in what I am saying, do we measure what course labour are on this mid term by the number of Tory’s staying at home handing labour seat, or by the % the Lab share grows due to switching? I think the latter, gap between parties would disappoint me here if I was a leader here, if our own stock isn’t rising the gap is merely Boris unpopularity. Why. Because it would give me no assurance I’m on course.
Stay at home vote is a different thing than switched vote, it’s softer, change of Tory leader the softer stay at home vote could swing back. To get excited about gap back to a collapsed Tory share would be immature pesodolphinolgy here if the truth is a huge soft vote prone to swingback.
But in real news Paddington has tea with the Queen.
What an inspired and delightful start to the concert.
SKS looks bored
Also I am obsessed with growing Citrus trees - 140 varieties in Palermo botanic gardens apparently
And going to Syracuse to map out the Athenian disaster of 413bc
Not sure. But I doubt simply changing the leader without altering the attitude, tone or addressing the absence of any discernible direction or coherent plan is quite a magic bullet.