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Opinium: Voters say Johnson should quit and go NOW – politicalbetting.com

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  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402

    tlg86 said:

    Farooq said:

    English fans shaming their country again :disappointed:

    Fuck off. These are Scouse, not English fans.
    You know, I was in Liverpool this afternoon. I hate the crowds but my wife loved it.
    The atmosphere was excited and loud and noisy, but no anger at all.
    Several fans got out of our way walking through Williamson Square with an apology before they carried on shouting and singing.
    But not a cross word anywhere. The behaviour was first rate and no police needed at all.
    Congratulations on the Port Vale promotion.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    David Canzini is a shit Lynton Crosby tribute act.



    Seriously, who thinks this stuff up? "The centre is slipping away to Starmer, so let's have some new policies that appeal only to the 30% who are still voting for us, and make us look like past-it one-hit wonders to the other 70%"?

    I've told you all before, if Johnson survives, hanging, flogging and national service are on the way.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,564
    The youtube coverage is terrible quality.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,506
    dixiedean said:

    Heathener said:

    You've only posted 4 times. Can I just check how bona fide this post is?

    I ask because sometimes people spike & spook the markets, especially on the spreads.

    That's a fair point, this account is an alt because the polls are embargoed, so can't post under my normal handle. Not much more I can say except that if I was trying to spook markets I probably wouldn't do it during a UCL final
    The bit about Wakefield was pretty obvious when you look at the Council results.
    And they were without a nonce to replace.
    I’ve bet on a Tory win.

    If the corbynista local Party resigned on mass because Starmer flustered someone on them, they should put up a candidate and split the vote. Utter pathetic mouthy no trousers cowards if they don’t.

    Talk some sense into them, big John slap em with your owls
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    Heathener said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Heathener said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Heathener said:

    https://twitter.com/paulsaltysalt/status/1530628410665484290

    Sorry if this doesn't fit @Leon's anti-Liverpool meme.

    Probably several sides to this incl. some fans without tickets and lots of French bureaucracy & their wild riot police (see below).

    Yes, bureaucracy definitely makes me crush people to death.
    Actually it very much can. Crowd control is tricky and if you go excessive on checks you can easily generate a crush.

    (Emphasis on excessive: there's a balance).
    Only if you are initially dealing with a bunch of complete and utter subhuman c---s.

    Either that or we get the same problem with rugby, cricket, F1, festival and opera crowds and I just haven't noticed. One or the other.
    There have been several disastrous death crushes at festivals, music as well as religious. There are nearly always administrative and poor organisational dimensions involved.

    Stop being a prat. It's not about subhumans. We're talking huge numbers being packed into a small space in a short amount of time. The organisation on this occasion sounds rubbish. Which does not in the least surprise me with the French.

    I remember going to a concert at Knebworth once and it was utter chaos afterwards, and dangerous. Nothing to do with the people present. It was an entirely benign crowd of Genesis fans.
    There have been, over the years, one or two scares at Edinburgh in the Hogmanay crowds (not surprisingly given the topography of the area in question). When my southern friends make noises about coming up at that time of year, I tell them not to, for that reason (and also weather and crowding: save it for the spring or autumn).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,999
    edited May 2022

    The youtube coverage is terrible quality.

    Perfect for me. 1080p60 working flawlessly. You sure YouTube hasn't decided to set the resolution for you?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Heathener said:

    tlg86 said:

    Farooq said:

    English fans shaming their country again :disappointed:

    Fuck off. These are Scouse, not English fans.
    You know, I was in Liverpool this afternoon. I hate the crowds but my wife loved it.
    The atmosphere was excited and loud and noisy, but no anger at all.
    Several fans got out of our way walking through Williamson Square with an apology before they carried on shouting and singing.
    But not a cross word anywhere. The behaviour was first rate and no police needed at all.
    Shhh that doesn't suit some people's preconceptions.

    Sigh.
    They weren't going to crush 97 people to death and have a 30 year mawkish wankfest about it afterwards? Or at least not immediately? First rate indeed.

    How lovely. Restores one's faith in yooman naychur.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,679

    David Canzini is a shit Lynton Crosby tribute act.



    Seriously, who thinks this stuff up? "The centre is slipping away to Starmer, so let's have some new policies that appeal only to the 30% who are still voting for us, and make us look like past-it one-hit wonders to the other 70%"?

    It's also dragging the Queen and her Jubilee into the grubby arena of Brexit/Tory politics and Save Big Dog (whatever version we're now on). Shameful.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Seems like the French have been taking tips from Wembley on crowd management
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    edited May 2022

    David Canzini is a shit Lynton Crosby tribute act.



    Seriously, who thinks this stuff up? "The centre is slipping away to Starmer, so let's have some new policies that appeal only to the 30% who are still voting for us, and make us look like past-it one-hit wonders to the other 70%"?

    I've told you all before, if Johnson survives, hanging, flogging and national service are on the way.
    None of which are likely to affect the Tory voter demographic. Apart from some Tory MPs, for their sexual peccadilloes.

    Edit: mind, some of them would positively like a spot of the old flage, old boy.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839
    20:32

    Dominic King from the Daily Mail speaking to BBC Radio 5 Live: "I have been back out to turnstile Y which is right behind the Liverpool end. I have spoken to a number of them about their experiences. They have been pepper sprayed by the French police. There are kids in the queue, old people in the queue. they have been there two hours.

    "It came from nowhere. The anger the people feel in terms of how they have been treated...I need to get this point over. There has been no violence or antagonism they are just dismayed by how the authorities have treated them.

    "The anger of the people I have spoken to is like nothing I have experienced. It is a failing of the authorities and police with how they are being looked after outside.

    "There have been some fans that have tried to get in, I'd be disingenuous to say that was not the case but not like groups or anything like Wembley. This treatment is entirely in one direction."


    20:35

    BBC journalist Nick Parrott is still outside the ground in a personal capacity speaking to BBC Radio 5 Live: "I can see a lot of riot police. They came out and chased us. I got chased from Gate seven to Gate Y. There are fewer fans here but I think they have gone round to other sides of the ground.

    "I have seen two fans being treated on the ground for the effects of tear gas."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/football/57740864
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    edited May 2022

    dixiedean said:

    Heathener said:

    You've only posted 4 times. Can I just check how bona fide this post is?

    I ask because sometimes people spike & spook the markets, especially on the spreads.

    That's a fair point, this account is an alt because the polls are embargoed, so can't post under my normal handle. Not much more I can say except that if I was trying to spook markets I probably wouldn't do it during a UCL final
    The bit about Wakefield was pretty obvious when you look at the Council results.
    And they were without a nonce to replace.
    I’ve bet on a Tory win.

    If the corbynista local Party resigned on mass because Starmer flustered someone on them, they should put up a candidate and split the vote. Utter pathetic mouthy no trousers cowards if they don’t.

    Talk some sense into them, big John slap em with your owls
    The nominations have closed. No mystery lefty has appeared.
    About 8 on the right though.

    https://www.itv.com/news/calendar/2022-05-26/whos-who-in-the-wakefield-by-election-the-full-list-of-candidates

    Almost every Indy is a former Tory. Or too loony to have been allowed.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,278
    Looks to me like a combination of some terrible UEFA/French organisation AND a lot of ticketless Liverpool fans causing problems. Add in the French police being ’firm’….
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,874
    dixiedean said:

    tlg86 said:

    Farooq said:

    English fans shaming their country again :disappointed:

    Fuck off. These are Scouse, not English fans.
    You know, I was in Liverpool this afternoon. I hate the crowds but my wife loved it.
    The atmosphere was excited and loud and noisy, but no anger at all.
    Several fans got out of our way walking through Williamson Square with an apology before they carried on shouting and singing.
    But not a cross word anywhere. The behaviour was first rate and no police needed at all.
    Congratulations on the Port Vale promotion.
    I must admit, so little interest in football do I have these days I was only vaguely aware we were in the playoffs. To actually win and go back to Tier 3 is good stuff!

    Thanks for letting me know! I'd have not even checked otherwise!
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239

    David Canzini is a shit Lynton Crosby tribute act.



    Seriously, who thinks this stuff up? "The centre is slipping away to Starmer, so let's have some new policies that appeal only to the 30% who are still voting for us, and make us look like past-it one-hit wonders to the other 70%"?

    Tonight's Yougov on imperial measurements

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1530593227736219649?t=q9-UWhijgBrc3QhYXk7ISQ&s=19
    Which says 23% "strongly support" and 20% "tend to support".

    In other words: 23%, absolute tops, would even consider altering their vote for this thin gruel of a policy.

    I think it's a pretty safe bet that this 23% are already voting Conservative.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,506
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Heathener said:

    You've only posted 4 times. Can I just check how bona fide this post is?

    I ask because sometimes people spike & spook the markets, especially on the spreads.

    That's a fair point, this account is an alt because the polls are embargoed, so can't post under my normal handle. Not much more I can say except that if I was trying to spook markets I probably wouldn't do it during a UCL final
    The bit about Wakefield was pretty obvious when you look at the Council results.
    And they were without a nonce to replace.
    I’ve bet on a Tory win.

    If the corbynista local Party resigned on mass because Starmer flustered someone on them, they should put up a candidate and split the vote. Utter pathetic mouthy no trousers cowards if they don’t.

    Talk some sense into them, big John slap em with your owls
    The nominations have closed. No mystery lefty has appeared.
    About 8 on the right though.
    I’ve lost my bet then.

    Flipping Labour left, all gob no guts
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,278
    Yet ANOTHER ingredient in the mix

    French locals also trying to climb in without tickets. Horrendous

    https://twitter.com/info_paris_idf/status/1530622587717525507?s=21&t=q86Gg7noIuqZ0ehSDwb3YA

    It will be remarkable if no one is badly hurt here
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838

    David Canzini is a shit Lynton Crosby tribute act.



    Seriously, who thinks this stuff up? "The centre is slipping away to Starmer, so let's have some new policies that appeal only to the 30% who are still voting for us, and make us look like past-it one-hit wonders to the other 70%"?

    It's also dragging the Queen and her Jubilee into the grubby arena of Brexit/Tory politics and Save Big Dog (whatever version we're now on). Shameful.
    On the contrary, that is positively what HMtQ IS for, as well as everything else in the UK: to preserve the Party Formerly Known as Conservative and Unionists, whose role is to secure its Leader in his current position.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,896
    Leon said:

    Looks to me like a combination of some terrible UEFA/French organisation AND a lot of ticketless Liverpool fans causing problems. Add in the French police being ’firm’….

    You might find a lot of ticketless fans have counterfeit tickets.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,432
    IshmaelZ said:

    Heathener said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Heathener said:

    https://twitter.com/paulsaltysalt/status/1530628410665484290

    Sorry if this doesn't fit @Leon's anti-Liverpool meme.

    Probably several sides to this incl. some fans without tickets and lots of French bureaucracy & their wild riot police (see below).

    Yes, bureaucracy definitely makes me crush people to death.
    Actually it very much can. Crowd control is tricky and if you go excessive on checks you can easily generate a crush.

    (Emphasis on excessive: there's a balance).
    Only if you are initially dealing with a bunch of complete and utter subhuman c---s.

    Either that or we get the same problem with rugby, cricket, F1, festival and opera crowds and I just haven't noticed. One or the other.
    It can get very tasty in the crush bar at the Royal Opera House during La Traviata I am told.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,506
    Pulpstar said:

    Seems like the French have been taking tips from Wembley on crowd management

    Wembley needed a wider cordon on tickets. Pretty rubbish they didn’t.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,999
    edited May 2022

    Leon said:

    Looks to me like a combination of some terrible UEFA/French organisation AND a lot of ticketless Liverpool fans causing problems. Add in the French police being ’firm’….

    You might find a lot of ticketless fans have counterfeit tickets.
    I have seen suggestion from some media that was the case, then they don't go through the scanner and then they argue with the stewards, and the French plod just tear gassed people and shut the gate, which of course causes a massive log jam and those who have counterfeit tickets won't believe it (or admit it) and those with genuine tickets can't get to the front of the queue.

    It doesn't take much with big crowds for things to go south.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011
    Cookie said:

    David Canzini is a shit Lynton Crosby tribute act.



    Seriously, who thinks this stuff up? "The centre is slipping away to Starmer, so let's have some new policies that appeal only to the 30% who are still voting for us, and make us look like past-it one-hit wonders to the other 70%"?

    I'm pretty favourable to Imperial measurements. I talk about miles and yards, not kilometres and metres.
    But all I really want in this regard is what I already have - road signs in miles, and now, the freedom for traders to sell in whatever crazed system of units they prefer. Which nowadays will mostly be metric. There is absolutely nothing more I want to do in relation to measurement.
    When someone tells me their height in metres and weight in kilos I have no idea whether they are tall or short, fat or thin.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    Just noticed this on the Graun:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/may/28/boris-johnson-partygate-tory-tax-mps-pm

    'Boris Johnson has plunged the Conservative party into an acute identity crisis as a result of Partygate and U-turns over tax policy, senior Tories warned last night, as more MPs called for him to resign as prime minister.

    Former Tory leader Iain Duncan-Smith told the Observer his party had been left with an “enormous identity problem” because it had raised taxes instead of cutting them under Johnson and the chancellor, Rishi Sunak, undermining a core Tory message that had helped win it successive general elections.'
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    For those who like that sort of thing I can thoroughly recommend https://www.redactle.com/
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Heathener said:

    You've only posted 4 times. Can I just check how bona fide this post is?

    I ask because sometimes people spike & spook the markets, especially on the spreads.

    That's a fair point, this account is an alt because the polls are embargoed, so can't post under my normal handle. Not much more I can say except that if I was trying to spook markets I probably wouldn't do it during a UCL final
    The bit about Wakefield was pretty obvious when you look at the Council results.
    And they were without a nonce to replace.
    I’ve bet on a Tory win.

    If the corbynista local Party resigned on mass because Starmer flustered someone on them, they should put up a candidate and split the vote. Utter pathetic mouthy no trousers cowards if they don’t.

    Talk some sense into them, big John slap em with your owls
    The nominations have closed. No mystery lefty has appeared.
    About 8 on the right though.
    I’ve lost my bet then.

    Flipping Labour left, all gob no guts
    I edited my post to include the full list of candidates if you want to look. There are numerous alternatives for disgruntled Tories.
    A veritable smorgasbord of flavours in fact.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    Alistair said:

    For those who like that sort of thing I can thoroughly recommend https://www.redactle.com/

    Hits instantly on 'minister' and 'prime'.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175

    Leon said:

    Looks to me like a combination of some terrible UEFA/French organisation AND a lot of ticketless Liverpool fans causing problems. Add in the French police being ’firm’….

    You might find a lot of ticketless fans have counterfeit tickets.
    I have seen suggestion from some media that was the case, then they don't go through the scanner and then they argue with the stewards, and the French plod just tear gassed people and shut the gate, which of course causes a massive log jam and those who have counterfeit tickets won't believe it (or admit it) and those with genuine tickets can't get to the front of the queue.

    It doesn't take much with big crowds for things to go south.
    I don’t have sympathy for those with genuine tickets. For a big game, get in early.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,525
    Fieldwork on this one 25th-27th, so spans the Sue Gray report and the Sunak package. My prediction was that after the Sunak package the lead would drop to 1-2, which seems to fit with the 3-point lead here. But I expect it'll float up to 5 or so as the Sunak package fades.

    In other news, the Abba event is terrific - assuming one likes Abba, of course. Spectacular lighting, convincing avatars and the real people appearing at the end. Lots of dancing in the aisles! The chap behind us was so impressed by the dancing of the friend who I'd taken that he slipped her his card on the way out "in case you ever want a change of company". Impressive nerve...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402

    Cookie said:

    David Canzini is a shit Lynton Crosby tribute act.



    Seriously, who thinks this stuff up? "The centre is slipping away to Starmer, so let's have some new policies that appeal only to the 30% who are still voting for us, and make us look like past-it one-hit wonders to the other 70%"?

    I'm pretty favourable to Imperial measurements. I talk about miles and yards, not kilometres and metres.
    But all I really want in this regard is what I already have - road signs in miles, and now, the freedom for traders to sell in whatever crazed system of units they prefer. Which nowadays will mostly be metric. There is absolutely nothing more I want to do in relation to measurement.
    When someone tells me their height in metres and weight in kilos I have no idea whether they are tall or short, fat or thin.
    Do folk often do that without you being able to see them?
  • jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 790

    Cookie said:

    David Canzini is a shit Lynton Crosby tribute act.



    Seriously, who thinks this stuff up? "The centre is slipping away to Starmer, so let's have some new policies that appeal only to the 30% who are still voting for us, and make us look like past-it one-hit wonders to the other 70%"?

    I'm pretty favourable to Imperial measurements. I talk about miles and yards, not kilometres and metres.
    But all I really want in this regard is what I already have - road signs in miles, and now, the freedom for traders to sell in whatever crazed system of units they prefer. Which nowadays will mostly be metric. There is absolutely nothing more I want to do in relation to measurement.
    When someone tells me their height in metres and weight in kilos I have no idea whether they are tall or short, fat or thin.
    You can probably check by looking at them in that case.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Carnyx said:

    Alistair said:

    For those who like that sort of thing I can thoroughly recommend https://www.redactle.com/

    Hits instantly on 'minister' and 'prime'.
    Only done a few so far but there are definitely some strong candidate words to open with.

    It's based on Wikipedia's "10,000 most essential articles" so it's never going to be something totally esoteric.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,506

    David Canzini is a shit Lynton Crosby tribute act.



    Seriously, who thinks this stuff up? "The centre is slipping away to Starmer, so let's have some new policies that appeal only to the 30% who are still voting for us, and make us look like past-it one-hit wonders to the other 70%"?

    Tonight's Yougov on imperial measurements

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1530593227736219649?t=q9-UWhijgBrc3QhYXk7ISQ&s=19
    Which says 23% "strongly support" and 20% "tend to support".

    In other words: 23%, absolute tops, would even consider altering their vote for this thin gruel of a policy.

    I think it's a pretty safe bet that this 23% are already voting Conservative.
    We already don’t use metric that much. We are miles, pint nation. And the Tory big change is only advisory. If they tried to change the money that is metric it would be a news story rather than a load of chaff aimed at John Redwood to ignore windfall tax because this imperial announcement is magic to him.

    All it does is say the Tory’s under Boris are lost.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,278

    Leon said:

    Looks to me like a combination of some terrible UEFA/French organisation AND a lot of ticketless Liverpool fans causing problems. Add in the French police being ’firm’….

    You might find a lot of ticketless fans have counterfeit tickets.
    Check the video below, which I linked, of local Parisians trying to storm one fence. If that is legit it is the most shocking of all
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    Carnyx said:

    Just noticed this on the Graun:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/may/28/boris-johnson-partygate-tory-tax-mps-pm

    'Boris Johnson has plunged the Conservative party into an acute identity crisis as a result of Partygate and U-turns over tax policy, senior Tories warned last night, as more MPs called for him to resign as prime minister.

    Former Tory leader Iain Duncan-Smith told the Observer his party had been left with an “enormous identity problem” because it had raised taxes instead of cutting them under Johnson and the chancellor, Rishi Sunak, undermining a core Tory message that had helped win it successive general elections.'

    And he comments with extensive experience of a bewilderingly shambolic Tory Party.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,999
    What a save that was.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,506

    Fieldwork on this one 25th-27th, so spans the Sue Gray report and the Sunak package. My prediction was that after the Sunak package the lead would drop to 1-2, which seems to fit with the 3-point lead here. But I expect it'll float up to 5 or so as the Sunak package fades.

    In other news, the Abba event is terrific - assuming one likes Abba, of course. Spectacular lighting, convincing avatars and the real people appearing at the end. Lots of dancing in the aisles! The chap behind us was so impressed by the dancing of the friend who I'd taken that he slipped her his card on the way out "in case you ever want a change of company". Impressive nerve...

    I’m glad you liked the abba, but you are talking bullshit on the polls. You implied all polls not just the opinium who have never given labour a bigger lead than 4 under this methodology.

    Not letting you get away with you implying Labours lead is now only 2 old chap.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    Liverpool looking the most threatening, but may regret squandering their chances.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    Leon said:

    Looks to me like a combination of some terrible UEFA/French organisation AND a lot of ticketless Liverpool fans causing problems. Add in the French police being ’firm’….

    You might find a lot of ticketless fans have counterfeit tickets.
    From what I am picking up the root of the problem is Liverpool fans turning up without tickets and with fake tickets and trying to get in one way or another. Ticketless fans do seem to have got into the stadium judging by the numbers without seats blocking up the gangways and emergency exits. Once ticketless fans are in the stadium the authorities have a problem - if they continue to let genuine ticket holders in then you are over capacity and going to be severely criticised if, heaven forbid, that leads to problems. I doubt the French authorities have helped much either. No doubt we will have a clearer idea by this time tomorrow.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402

    Fieldwork on this one 25th-27th, so spans the Sue Gray report and the Sunak package. My prediction was that after the Sunak package the lead would drop to 1-2, which seems to fit with the 3-point lead here. But I expect it'll float up to 5 or so as the Sunak package fades.

    In other news, the Abba event is terrific - assuming one likes Abba, of course. Spectacular lighting, convincing avatars and the real people appearing at the end. Lots of dancing in the aisles! The chap behind us was so impressed by the dancing of the friend who I'd taken that he slipped her his card on the way out "in case you ever want a change of company". Impressive nerve...

    I’m glad you liked the abba, but you are talking bullshit on the polls. You implied all polls not just the opinium who have never given labour a bigger lead than 4 under this methodology.

    Not letting you get away with you implying Labours lead is now only 2 old chap.
    I'd be interested to see the polls in two weeks tbh.
    Strange as it may seem to us but most folk don't follow it very closely.
    Usually takes a fortnight to filter through.
    That's Gray Report and Sunak cash btw.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,896
    OT someone is trying to hack my Facebook account. Keep safe on the web, and in Paris.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,278
    OllyT said:

    Leon said:

    Looks to me like a combination of some terrible UEFA/French organisation AND a lot of ticketless Liverpool fans causing problems. Add in the French police being ’firm’….

    You might find a lot of ticketless fans have counterfeit tickets.
    From what I am picking up the root of the problem is Liverpool fans turning up without tickets and with fake tickets and trying to get in one way or another. Ticketless fans do seem to have got into the stadium judging by the numbers without seats blocking up the gangways and emergency exits. Once ticketless fans are in the stadium the authorities have a problem - if they continue to let genuine ticket holders in then you are over capacity and going to be severely criticised if, heaven forbid, that leads to problems. I doubt the French authorities have helped much either. No doubt we will have a clearer idea by this time tomorrow.
    But that video (apparently authentic) of locals trying to storm their way in is worse than anything I’ve seen of Liverpool fans (and I am no friend of the hymn-booers)

    It looks like multiple issues creating one giant clusterfuck
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,432
    dixiedean said:

    Fieldwork on this one 25th-27th, so spans the Sue Gray report and the Sunak package. My prediction was that after the Sunak package the lead would drop to 1-2, which seems to fit with the 3-point lead here. But I expect it'll float up to 5 or so as the Sunak package fades.

    In other news, the Abba event is terrific - assuming one likes Abba, of course. Spectacular lighting, convincing avatars and the real people appearing at the end. Lots of dancing in the aisles! The chap behind us was so impressed by the dancing of the friend who I'd taken that he slipped her his card on the way out "in case you ever want a change of company". Impressive nerve...

    I’m glad you liked the abba, but you are talking bullshit on the polls. You implied all polls not just the opinium who have never given labour a bigger lead than 4 under this methodology.

    Not letting you get away with you implying Labours lead is now only 2 old chap.
    I'd be interested to see the polls in two weeks tbh.
    Strange as it may seem to us but most folk don't follow it very closely.
    Usually takes a fortnight to filter through.
    That's Gray Report and Sunak cash btw.
    Let's hope the polls show no movement - perhaps we'll all get a side of beef and a pair of diamond earrings.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,999
    edited May 2022

    OT someone is trying to hack my Facebook account. Keep safe on the web, and in Paris.

    2FA....

    I don't think a day goes by without somebody trying to access my gmail account.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    I hope TSE is okay; we know how much he loves the French.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,506
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Heathener said:

    You've only posted 4 times. Can I just check how bona fide this post is?

    I ask because sometimes people spike & spook the markets, especially on the spreads.

    That's a fair point, this account is an alt because the polls are embargoed, so can't post under my normal handle. Not much more I can say except that if I was trying to spook markets I probably wouldn't do it during a UCL final
    The bit about Wakefield was pretty obvious when you look at the Council results.
    And they were without a nonce to replace.
    I’ve bet on a Tory win.

    If the corbynista local Party resigned on mass because Starmer flustered someone on them, they should put up a candidate and split the vote. Utter pathetic mouthy no trousers cowards if they don’t.

    Talk some sense into them, big John slap em with your owls
    The nominations have closed. No mystery lefty has appeared.
    About 8 on the right though.

    https://www.itv.com/news/calendar/2022-05-26/whos-who-in-the-wakefield-by-election-the-full-list-of-candidates

    Almost every Indy is a former Tory. Or too loony to have been allowed.
    You are right. Peoples League for Britain First (shit finger nails) and splinter League of Britain First People (better hair) standing against each other, I’m calling this, Tory’s have lost by a imperial mile.

    At least I’m on Tory’s to win Tivi, and Marqs posts fill me with confidence.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,506
    dixiedean said:

    Fieldwork on this one 25th-27th, so spans the Sue Gray report and the Sunak package. My prediction was that after the Sunak package the lead would drop to 1-2, which seems to fit with the 3-point lead here. But I expect it'll float up to 5 or so as the Sunak package fades.

    In other news, the Abba event is terrific - assuming one likes Abba, of course. Spectacular lighting, convincing avatars and the real people appearing at the end. Lots of dancing in the aisles! The chap behind us was so impressed by the dancing of the friend who I'd taken that he slipped her his card on the way out "in case you ever want a change of company". Impressive nerve...

    I’m glad you liked the abba, but you are talking bullshit on the polls. You implied all polls not just the opinium who have never given labour a bigger lead than 4 under this methodology.

    Not letting you get away with you implying Labours lead is now only 2 old chap.
    I'd be interested to see the polls in two weeks tbh.
    Strange as it may seem to us but most folk don't follow it very closely.
    Usually takes a fortnight to filter through.
    That's Gray Report and Sunak cash btw.
    June Gloom polling for Tories. Kantor and Opinium show their % on the slide. What can save them?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,278
    Foxy said:

    Liverpool looking the most threatening, but may regret squandering their chances.

    You talking about the fans or the team?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,999
    tlg86 said:

    I hope TSE is okay; we know how much he loves the French.

    I was going to say, but he speaks the lingo which probably an advantage...then I thought again about the French police reputation in regards to treatment of non-white French population.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647

    OT someone is trying to hack my Facebook account. Keep safe on the web, and in Paris.

    2FA....

    I don't think a day goes by without somebody trying to access my gmail account.
    How do you know?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,999
    edited May 2022
    Foxy said:

    OT someone is trying to hack my Facebook account. Keep safe on the web, and in Paris.

    2FA....

    I don't think a day goes by without somebody trying to access my gmail account.
    How do you know?
    You can go into the setting in gmail and see attempted log-ins, ip address, location, etc. I have never been to Islamabad or Lagos....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,278
    All going well

    “Reports of fights between French police and some fans inside the Stade de France. #ChampionsLeagueFinal”

    “It is now the young people from the surrounding area (sic) who are trying to force the entrance to the Stade de France”

    #LIVRMA #UCLfinal  #ChampionsLeagueFinal
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Liverpool looking the most threatening, but may regret squandering their chances.

    You talking about the fans or the team?
    The team, though Madrid defending well and good on the break.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175

    tlg86 said:

    I hope TSE is okay; we know how much he loves the French.

    I was going to say, but he speaks the lingo which probably an advantage...then I thought again about the French police reputation in regards to treatment of non-white French population.
    Does he speak French for the same reason Brian Moore can (so that he could insult the French front row in their own language!)?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011
    dixiedean said:

    Cookie said:

    David Canzini is a shit Lynton Crosby tribute act.



    Seriously, who thinks this stuff up? "The centre is slipping away to Starmer, so let's have some new policies that appeal only to the 30% who are still voting for us, and make us look like past-it one-hit wonders to the other 70%"?

    I'm pretty favourable to Imperial measurements. I talk about miles and yards, not kilometres and metres.
    But all I really want in this regard is what I already have - road signs in miles, and now, the freedom for traders to sell in whatever crazed system of units they prefer. Which nowadays will mostly be metric. There is absolutely nothing more I want to do in relation to measurement.
    When someone tells me their height in metres and weight in kilos I have no idea whether they are tall or short, fat or thin.
    Do folk often do that without you being able to see them?
    On PB, for example...
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220

    Fieldwork on this one 25th-27th, so spans the Sue Gray report and the Sunak package. My prediction was that after the Sunak package the lead would drop to 1-2, which seems to fit with the 3-point lead here. But I expect it'll float up to 5 or so as the Sunak package fades.

    In other news, the Abba event is terrific - assuming one likes Abba, of course. Spectacular lighting, convincing avatars and the real people appearing at the end. Lots of dancing in the aisles! The chap behind us was so impressed by the dancing of the friend who I'd taken that he slipped her his card on the way out "in case you ever want a change of company". Impressive nerve...

    I’m glad you liked the abba, but you are talking bullshit on the polls. You implied all polls not just the opinium who have never given labour a bigger lead than 4 under this methodology.

    Not letting you get away with you implying Labours lead is now only 2 old chap.
    From memory, the point of the new Opinium methodology is to pre-correct for swingback- putting those who won't say they're voting for X but are likely to in the end in the right column now.

    On that basis, and given that the Conservatives need to be about two points ahead of Labour for a bare majority, Lab +3 is fine for the reds.

    Here's a question- on Thursday, Rishi promised to put £15 billion in people's pockets. That ought to be huge, but the Conservatives are already moving the agenda on- Ministerial Code, Suella on Trannies, now pounds and ounces. Politically, what's happened to message discipline? No point chucking that much cash if you don't bother mopping up the full credit for it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,278
    A Spanish journalist


    “I've been to quite a few Champions League, Euro Cup and World Cup finals.

    What is happening at the Stade de France I have never seen before.

    There are groups of French around the stadium attacking and robbing the fans.

    I'm not talking about hearsay, I've seen it myself.”

    https://twitter.com/santos_relevo/status/1530622770916343808?s=21&t=uscrLwulUaqp_XbEO77kSA
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 883

    David Canzini is a shit Lynton Crosby tribute act.



    Seriously, who thinks this stuff up? "The centre is slipping away to Starmer, so let's have some new policies that appeal only to the 30% who are still voting for us, and make us look like past-it one-hit wonders to the other 70%"?

    I've told you all before, if Johnson survives, hanging, flogging and national service are on the way.
    Fox hunting could be a nice bit of grizzled meat to feed the absolute core. Though I believe Carrie is a big fan of animals. If Boris had to choose between the base, and the Foxes who do you think he would send to break the news to Carrie?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    Leon said:

    All going well

    “Reports of fights between French police and some fans inside the Stade de France. #ChampionsLeagueFinal”

    “It is now the young people from the surrounding area (sic) who are trying to force the entrance to the Stade de France”

    #LIVRMA #UCLfinal  #ChampionsLeagueFinal

    Reckon they saw what happened at Wembley last year and thought they’d have a go.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    tlg86 said:

    Leon said:

    All going well

    “Reports of fights between French police and some fans inside the Stade de France. #ChampionsLeagueFinal”

    “It is now the young people from the surrounding area (sic) who are trying to force the entrance to the Stade de France”

    #LIVRMA #UCLfinal  #ChampionsLeagueFinal

    Reckon they saw what happened at Wembley last year and thought they’d have a go.
    No flares dans le cul?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    Leon said:

    A Spanish journalist


    “I've been to quite a few Champions League, Euro Cup and World Cup finals.

    What is happening at the Stade de France I have never seen before.

    There are groups of French around the stadium attacking and robbing the fans.

    I'm not talking about hearsay, I've seen it myself.”

    https://twitter.com/santos_relevo/status/1530622770916343808?s=21&t=uscrLwulUaqp_XbEO77kSA

    Sounds like a multiple clusterfuck tbh. Maybe they got away with it. A bit like Wembley, by sheer luck as much as owt else.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220

    dixiedean said:

    Fieldwork on this one 25th-27th, so spans the Sue Gray report and the Sunak package. My prediction was that after the Sunak package the lead would drop to 1-2, which seems to fit with the 3-point lead here. But I expect it'll float up to 5 or so as the Sunak package fades.

    In other news, the Abba event is terrific - assuming one likes Abba, of course. Spectacular lighting, convincing avatars and the real people appearing at the end. Lots of dancing in the aisles! The chap behind us was so impressed by the dancing of the friend who I'd taken that he slipped her his card on the way out "in case you ever want a change of company". Impressive nerve...

    I’m glad you liked the abba, but you are talking bullshit on the polls. You implied all polls not just the opinium who have never given labour a bigger lead than 4 under this methodology.

    Not letting you get away with you implying Labours lead is now only 2 old chap.
    I'd be interested to see the polls in two weeks tbh.
    Strange as it may seem to us but most folk don't follow it very closely.
    Usually takes a fortnight to filter through.
    That's Gray Report and Sunak cash btw.
    June Gloom polling for Tories. Kantor and Opinium show their % on the slide. What can save them?
    Simple. Putting the Big Dog in a concrete overcoat and tipping him over the side of Westminster Bridge.

    Not easy, and it might be temporary relief, but it is simple.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    HYUFD said:

    Just a 3% lead for Labour after the Gray report with Opinium is much better than expected. Boris and many Tory MPs will be relieved.

    The 32% wanting Boris to stay PM almost exactly matches the 33% Conservative voteshare, so clearly those wanting him to go are virtually all Labour and LD voters

    No Tory poll leads for 5 months and 22 days,,,
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220
    Unpopular said:

    David Canzini is a shit Lynton Crosby tribute act.



    Seriously, who thinks this stuff up? "The centre is slipping away to Starmer, so let's have some new policies that appeal only to the 30% who are still voting for us, and make us look like past-it one-hit wonders to the other 70%"?

    I've told you all before, if Johnson survives, hanging, flogging and national service are on the way.
    Fox hunting could be a nice bit of grizzled meat to feed the absolute core. Though I believe Carrie is a big fan of animals. If Boris had to choose between the base, and the Foxes who do you think he would send to break the news to Carrie?
    Aren't there rumours implying that Carrie's views might be less of an issue now?

    Allegedly.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    This is going to be a goal.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,999
    Clusterf##k from Liverpool there.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    This is a goal.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,999
    Have just made it into the Stade de France. Caught up in tear gas as police tried to deal with large groups of French locals trying to force entrance at gates. All entrances now shut with some genuine fans locked out.

    https://twitter.com/OllyFoster/status/1530643940210245632?s=20&t=L8F42GmX7xLfZuEd5aG6Sw
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    dixiedean said:

    This is a goal.

    Looks onside to me.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    Leon said:

    A Spanish journalist


    “I've been to quite a few Champions League, Euro Cup and World Cup finals.

    What is happening at the Stade de France I have never seen before.

    There are groups of French around the stadium attacking and robbing the fans.

    I'm not talking about hearsay, I've seen it myself.”

    https://twitter.com/santos_relevo/status/1530622770916343808?s=21&t=uscrLwulUaqp_XbEO77kSA

    This is cool - Roger’s amazing European French people are possibly worse than Sean’s poo flinging Britishers.

    There’s only one way to solve this….
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,999
    edited May 2022
    How is that not a goal?

    If that had stood, we would have been in for 45 mins of Real Madrid time wasting....
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    This is a goal.
    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    This is a goal.

    Looks onside to me.
    Came off Fabinho.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647

    Unpopular said:

    David Canzini is a shit Lynton Crosby tribute act.



    Seriously, who thinks this stuff up? "The centre is slipping away to Starmer, so let's have some new policies that appeal only to the 30% who are still voting for us, and make us look like past-it one-hit wonders to the other 70%"?

    I've told you all before, if Johnson survives, hanging, flogging and national service are on the way.
    Fox hunting could be a nice bit of grizzled meat to feed the absolute core. Though I believe Carrie is a big fan of animals. If Boris had to choose between the base, and the Foxes who do you think he would send to break the news to Carrie?
    Aren't there rumours implying that Carrie's views might be less of an issue now?

    Allegedly.
    She has gone to ground?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,278

    Have just made it into the Stade de France. Caught up in tear gas as police tried to deal with large groups of French locals trying to force entrance at gates. All entrances now shut with some genuine fans locked out.

    https://twitter.com/OllyFoster/status/1530643940210245632?s=20&t=L8F42GmX7xLfZuEd5aG6Sw

    It does look increasingly like French locals causing a lot of the problems: attacking the supporters and also trying to force their way in
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647

    How is that not a goal?

    If that had stood, we would have been in for 45 mins of Real Madrid time wasting....

    Hinges on whether a deliberate ball, or a deflection I think. Looked OK to me.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    dixiedean said:

    This is a goal.

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    This is a goal.

    Looks onside to me.
    Came off Fabinho.
    Really unclear from the angles we saw. If Valverde played the ball then the subsequent deflections are irrelevant. The slow motion rock and roll they've showed is too late.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,278
    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    A Spanish journalist


    “I've been to quite a few Champions League, Euro Cup and World Cup finals.

    What is happening at the Stade de France I have never seen before.

    There are groups of French around the stadium attacking and robbing the fans.

    I'm not talking about hearsay, I've seen it myself.”

    https://twitter.com/santos_relevo/status/1530622770916343808?s=21&t=uscrLwulUaqp_XbEO77kSA

    This is cool - Roger’s amazing European French people are possibly worse than Sean’s poo flinging Britishers.

    There’s only one way to solve this….

    To add to the piquancy, I don’t think it’s Le Pen voters attacking and robbing the supporters, or indeed pictured here..


    https://twitter.com/campute2922/status/1530646242988105729?s=21&t=dE5Xuqz9yG8U402f1rWqBQ
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,278
    Hymn-booing Liverpool fans fighting with French cops in central Paris.

    https://twitter.com/remybuisine/status/1530645815311667201?s=21&t=dE5Xuqz9yG8U402f1rWqBQ
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    edited May 2022
    Foxy said:

    How is that not a goal?

    If that had stood, we would have been in for 45 mins of Real Madrid time wasting....

    Hinges on whether a deliberate ball, or a deflection I think. Looked OK to me.
    I mean. It's the clear and obvious rule isn't it?
    Lino doesn't flag that's a goal. Umpires call.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,278
    TSE must be having a right old laugh
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    Just rewound and I reckon Benzema might have been offside on the original ball over the top. But I don’t know if that would have mattered if the linesman didn’t flag as soon as he lost the ball.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,999
    edited May 2022
    The photo of Liverpool fan seemingly getting tear gassed for no reason.

    Here is the full video. Not saying they were at fault (although I don't recommend screaming f##k off at the French plod), but clearly people have been trying to storm the stadium.

    https://twitter.com/carrusel/status/1530628439186853893?s=20&t=ALfIs4rmFeXt74QKmj0ABw
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    Don't takeaway what a save that was from Courtois.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    tlg86 said:

    Just rewound and I reckon Benzema might have been offside on the original ball over the top. But I don’t know if that would have mattered if the linesman didn’t flag as soon as he lost the ball.

    That was my instinct too, but that wasn't the decision given. I suspect one of the reasons it took so long is they had to analyse that one first, and it was cleared.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited May 2022
    If I were Johnson I'd make a leadership election happen right now, before the by-elections, to catch my opponents off-guard.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,999
    Leon said:

    Hymn-booing Liverpool fans fighting with French cops in central Paris.

    https://twitter.com/remybuisine/status/1530645815311667201?s=21&t=dE5Xuqz9yG8U402f1rWqBQ

    They don't look like the CRS...wait until they send them out.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,278

    Leon said:

    Hymn-booing Liverpool fans fighting with French cops in central Paris.

    https://twitter.com/remybuisine/status/1530645815311667201?s=21&t=dE5Xuqz9yG8U402f1rWqBQ

    They don't look like the CRS...wait until they send them out.

    Seems to me almost everyone is at fault here

    UEFA, French police. Liverpool fans, French locals, Stade de France management…

    Complete and violent shambles
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Andy_JS said:

    If I were Johnson I'd make a leadership election happen right now, before the by-elections, to catch my opponents off-guard.

    He doesn't have the power to call a leadership election.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 883
    Applicant said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If I were Johnson I'd make a leadership election happen right now, before the by-elections, to catch my opponents off-guard.

    He doesn't have the power to call a leadership election.
    Could he not have loyalists send letters in to trigger one. Between MPs who love him and those that hate him, surely even Boris has the numbers.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    Applicant said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If I were Johnson I'd make a leadership election happen right now, before the by-elections, to catch my opponents off-guard.

    He doesn't have the power to call a leadership election.
    He could instruct the payroll vote to put letters in.
    He wouldn't. But he could.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,994
    I imagine a lot of Liverpool fans turned up late. We made the mistake of getting the ferry to France today. Huge queues and very long delays. Fans everywhere. We arrived at the port at 7am and just snuck on the 9.30 ferry by a whisker. The ferry was half empty as most passengers were still queuing when they closed check in.

    This was Irish Ferries, who are disorganised at the best of times, but by far the cheapest option for crossing today so would have been the chosen carrier (and familiar to many Liverpudlians as they sail from there.) But there were big delays for all ferry companies. next ferry was 12.45 so you would get to Calais at 3.15. Then 3 hours drive to Paris if you’re lucky, before traffic jams, parking etc. Fans would have been pouring in at the last minute.

    Happily for us we were heading down the almost empty Autoroutes to the Maconnais.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Unpopular said:

    Applicant said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If I were Johnson I'd make a leadership election happen right now, before the by-elections, to catch my opponents off-guard.

    He doesn't have the power to call a leadership election.
    Could he not have loyalists send letters in to trigger one. Between MPs who love him and those that hate him, surely even Boris has the numbers.
    Yeah, I had thought about this when it came up a few months ago. But would it survive the Brady ring-round?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,431
    dixiedean said:

    Applicant said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If I were Johnson I'd make a leadership election happen right now, before the by-elections, to catch my opponents off-guard.

    He doesn't have the power to call a leadership election.
    He could instruct the payroll vote to put letters in.
    He wouldn't. But he could.
    Not without being damn’ sure he’d win.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,278
    TimS said:

    I imagine a lot of Liverpool fans turned up late. We made the mistake of getting the ferry to France today. Huge queues and very long delays. Fans everywhere. We arrived at the port at 7am and just snuck on the 9.30 ferry by a whisker. The ferry was half empty as most passengers were still queuing when they closed check in.

    This was Irish Ferries, who are disorganised at the best of times, but by far the cheapest option for crossing today so would have been the chosen carrier (and familiar to many Liverpudlians as they sail from there.) But there were big delays for all ferry companies. next ferry was 12.45 so you would get to Calais at 3.15. Then 3 hours drive to Paris if you’re lucky, before traffic jams, parking etc. Fans would have been pouring in at the last minute.

    Happily for us we were heading down the almost empty Autoroutes to the Maconnais.

    It’s a lot more nuanced than that


    “At the Champions League final. Game is delayed because there are mobs of thieves stealing from spectators. Shameful. They stole half of our tickets. Mobs are trying to jump turnstiles. Us with 2 kids.”

    This is a blue tick Real Madrid fan from Madrid

    https://twitter.com/martinvars/status/1530623845417230336?s=21&t=PxPqOaD7dTMZoJiIWwXccQ
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    Applicant said:

    Unpopular said:

    Applicant said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If I were Johnson I'd make a leadership election happen right now, before the by-elections, to catch my opponents off-guard.

    He doesn't have the power to call a leadership election.
    Could he not have loyalists send letters in to trigger one. Between MPs who love him and those that hate him, surely even Boris has the numbers.
    Yeah, I had thought about this when it came up a few months ago. But would it survive the Brady ring-round?
    Is the ring round a thing? Or is it just something he can do if he wants?
    PS. Doesn't he have E-mail?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,896

    Fieldwork on this one 25th-27th, so spans the Sue Gray report and the Sunak package. My prediction was that after the Sunak package the lead would drop to 1-2, which seems to fit with the 3-point lead here. But I expect it'll float up to 5 or so as the Sunak package fades.

    In other news, the Abba event is terrific - assuming one likes Abba, of course. Spectacular lighting, convincing avatars and the real people appearing at the end. Lots of dancing in the aisles! The chap behind us was so impressed by the dancing of the friend who I'd taken that he slipped her his card on the way out "in case you ever want a change of company". Impressive nerve...

    I’m glad you liked the abba, but you are talking bullshit on the polls. You implied all polls not just the opinium who have never given labour a bigger lead than 4 under this methodology.

    Not letting you get away with you implying Labours lead is now only 2 old chap.
    From memory, the point of the new Opinium methodology is to pre-correct for swingback- putting those who won't say they're voting for X but are likely to in the end in the right column now.

    On that basis, and given that the Conservatives need to be about two points ahead of Labour for a bare majority, Lab +3 is fine for the reds.

    Here's a question- on Thursday, Rishi promised to put £15 billion in people's pockets. That ought to be huge, but the Conservatives are already moving the agenda on- Ministerial Code, Suella on Trannies, now pounds and ounces. Politically, what's happened to message discipline? No point chucking that much cash if you don't bother mopping up the full credit for it.
    Do not underestimate the stop Rishi faction in Number 10 and around the Cabinet table.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,999
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    I imagine a lot of Liverpool fans turned up late. We made the mistake of getting the ferry to France today. Huge queues and very long delays. Fans everywhere. We arrived at the port at 7am and just snuck on the 9.30 ferry by a whisker. The ferry was half empty as most passengers were still queuing when they closed check in.

    This was Irish Ferries, who are disorganised at the best of times, but by far the cheapest option for crossing today so would have been the chosen carrier (and familiar to many Liverpudlians as they sail from there.) But there were big delays for all ferry companies. next ferry was 12.45 so you would get to Calais at 3.15. Then 3 hours drive to Paris if you’re lucky, before traffic jams, parking etc. Fans would have been pouring in at the last minute.

    Happily for us we were heading down the almost empty Autoroutes to the Maconnais.

    It’s a lot more nuanced than that


    “At the Champions League final. Game is delayed because there are mobs of thieves stealing from spectators. Shameful. They stole half of our tickets. Mobs are trying to jump turnstiles. Us with 2 kids.”

    This is a blue tick Real Madrid fan from Madrid

    https://twitter.com/martinvars/status/1530623845417230336?s=21&t=PxPqOaD7dTMZoJiIWwXccQ
    A bit like Wembley, you would think they had never held a big event or something.....
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,525

    Fieldwork on this one 25th-27th, so spans the Sue Gray report and the Sunak package. My prediction was that after the Sunak package the lead would drop to 1-2, which seems to fit with the 3-point lead here. But I expect it'll float up to 5 or so as the Sunak package fades.

    In other news, the Abba event is terrific - assuming one likes Abba, of course. Spectacular lighting, convincing avatars and the real people appearing at the end. Lots of dancing in the aisles! The chap behind us was so impressed by the dancing of the friend who I'd taken that he slipped her his card on the way out "in case you ever want a change of company". Impressive nerve...

    I’m glad you liked the abba, but you are talking bullshit on the polls. You implied all polls not just the opinium who have never given labour a bigger lead than 4 under this methodology.

    Not letting you get away with you implying Labours lead is now only 2 old chap.
    Let's hope you're right!
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