Johnson will survive. If he went, the The Tory membership would only choose another Brexiteer. Based on that criteria Johnson is about as good as it gets and I suspect that is what stays the hands of most of the MPs.
Not sure whether he can pull off an election win in 2024. He will need to convince the RedWall leavers that Brexit has improved their lot and hope that they feel that "levelling-up" wasn't just an empty slogan.
If these voters drift away then I think he loses because I cannot see those degree-educated, middle-class remainers that have deserted the Tories returning while Johnson is at the helm.
The Tories will probably run a very toxic culture-war campaign orchestrated by Crosby but I wouldn't bet on it not working. 2 years out I would say it is 50/50.
Johnson will survive. If he went, the The Tory membership would only choose another Brexiteer. Based on that criteria Johnson is about as good as it gets and I suspect that is what stays the hands of most of the MPs.
Not sure whether he can pull off an election win in 2024. He will need to convince the RedWall leavers that Brexit has improved their lot and hope that they feel that "levelling-up" wasn't just an empty slogan.
If these voters drift away then I think he loses because I cannot see those degree-educated, middle-class remainers that have deserted the Tories returning while Johnson is at the helm.
The Tories will probably run a very toxic culture-war campaign orchestrated by Crosby but I wouldn't bet on it not working. 2 years out I would say it is 50/50.
We still don’t know for sure what battle ground the next election will be fought on. Seems unlikely to be Brexit. Certainly won’t be covid. By spring 2024 stagflation may well be behind us. Many hope it will be “integrity” or some theme thereof. Could be I suppose.
But the winner is the one that manages to capture the zeitgeist and shape the election on their own terms. It’s still not obvious that Starmer has it in him to do this. As for culture wars, war on woke isn’t going to appeal broadly enough for a win, it won’t be tried. Might it be a foreign policy election? Hopefully not.
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Not sure whether he can pull off an election win in 2024. He will need to convince the RedWall leavers that Brexit has improved their lot and hope that they feel that "levelling-up" wasn't just an empty slogan.
If these voters drift away then I think he loses because I cannot see those degree-educated, middle-class remainers that have deserted the Tories returning while Johnson is at the helm.
The Tories will probably run a very toxic culture-war campaign orchestrated by Crosby but I wouldn't bet on it not working. 2 years out I would say it is 50/50.
But the winner is the one that manages to capture the zeitgeist and shape the election on their own terms. It’s still not obvious that Starmer has it in him to do this. As for culture wars, war on woke isn’t going to appeal broadly enough for a win, it won’t be tried. Might it be a foreign policy election? Hopefully not.