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Something to ponder – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,599
    GaryL said:

    Foxy said:

    GaryL said:

    Western elites are clearly losing their resolve as Putin calculated they would

    Not at all. Didn't you see the Polish PM in Kyiv today, promising whatever it takes?

    You may not be aware that we have a free press, so newspapers here are not just government mouth pieces like in your country, so publish a variety of opinions.
    Poland is not the major player in this as I'm sure you know uk USA France and Germany are key countries I don't regard Poland as part of the western elite
    I know. They are just baby Slavs who should bow down to the glory of Great Russia. That's the Kremlin line isn't it?
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,978
    Eabhal said:

    GaryL said:

    Foxy said:

    glw said:


    Don't forget, Derby's very own apologist:




    Chris Williamson
    @DerbyChrisW
    ·
    May 21
    Looks like the sanctions against Russia are collapsing. Italy has massively increased imports of Russian oil. The sanctions are stupid and counterproductive. They should all be lifted immediately and the focus should be on a negotiated peace in #Ukraine

    https://twitter.com/DerbyChrisW/status/1528118402774183938

    Thankfully idiots like him won't change what is happening. America is providing a huge amount of military aid, and when Ukraine starts receiving the kind of weapons that will tip the balance in their favour, rather than the stuff that was initially provided for a guerilla war, then the Russian military will see just how denuded they have been due to Communism and the kleptocracy that replaced it.
    Yes, the new Ukranian tank formations should be ready for the counter-offensive shortly, and the attrition of Russian equipment at current rates will destroy Russian offensive power within months.

    In terms of military advantage, NATO is doing very well. For a fairly modest expenditure, and by sending mothballed kit, NATO will have effectively disarmed its only major threat. Its a bargain for our defence budget.

    I can see why Russian apologists want a ceasefire.. It is a "stop the count" moment where they know they have reached high tide, and ahead is only defeat.
    Clearly many western elites and the ny times disagree with you Foxy but after all I suppose doctors are always right
    Not the first Russian to have a problem with Doctors ;)
    Are you Disputin his comments?
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,588

    Farooq said:

    GaryL said:

    Foxy said:

    GaryL said:

    glw said:

    GaryL said:

    glw said:

    GaryL said:

    Point is sensible leaders in the west realise this war is going nowhere and costing thousands of lives

    Bollocks do they. Sensible leaders realise that Ukraine has the resolve to fight Russia indefinitely if they armed to do so. But can Russia keep going? Probably not, they will have to escalate or fold. And I suspect that the number of Russian military leaders confident of their ability to wage a greater war is declining by the day. Hell, even Putin probably realises he's fucked it up.
    So why the sounds of compromise from the west tonite you don't do that if you are winning
    Ukraine is unwilling to cede territory. The Russian military needs to bleed, burn, and the survivors go home. America will provide the means to do that.
    How long would that take,, months , years, never meanwhile the developing world starves and the western economies crash
    At current rates of loss, the Russian army will no longer be capable of offensive operations soon. Whether it becomes a stalemate or a rout at that point is unclear.

    If a stalemate though, there will be no end to sanctions.
    I always find doctors some of the most gullible in believing everything they read in the msm, I get my information from many sources
    RT.
    The Kremlin's Twitter feed.
    George Galloway.
    ...
    Don't forget, Derby's very own apologist:




    Chris Williamson
    @DerbyChrisW
    ·
    May 21
    Looks like the sanctions against Russia are collapsing. Italy has massively increased imports of Russian oil. The sanctions are stupid and counterproductive. They should all be lifted immediately and the focus should be on a negotiated peace in #Ukraine

    https://twitter.com/DerbyChrisW/status/1528118402774183938
    He's an idiot but he may inadvertently be right that eventually a negotiated peace could be an option.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,568
    GaryL said:

    Foxy said:

    GaryL said:

    Western elites are clearly losing their resolve as Putin calculated they would

    Not at all. Didn't you see the Polish PM in Kyiv today, promising whatever it takes?

    You may not be aware that we have a free press, so newspapers here are not just government mouth pieces like in your country, so publish a variety of opinions.
    Poland is not the major player in this as I'm sure you know uk USA France and Germany are key countries I don't regard Poland as part of the western elite
    That is true of the US, but the military aid from France and particularly Germany has been insignificant in terms of making a difference to Ukraine’s ability to fight.
    As I’m sure you know.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725
    One thing I like about the 'war is horrible' switcharoo is that far from meaning people should stop providing support for Ukraine's defence (and thus aid the Russians, totally coincidentally), it actually destroys the Russian pretext for getting involved in the first place, since even if the Ukrainians were nazis killing 'Russians', they should not have done anything about it because 'war is horrible'.

    Ergo, Russia should still just immediately retreat.
  • Options
    GaryLGaryL Posts: 131
    Foxy said:

    GaryL said:

    Foxy said:

    GaryL said:

    Western elites are clearly losing their resolve as Putin calculated they would

    Not at all. Didn't you see the Polish PM in Kyiv today, promising whatever it takes?

    You may not be aware that we have a free press, so newspapers here are not just government mouth pieces like in your country, so publish a variety of opinions.
    Poland is not the major player in this as I'm sure you know uk USA France and Germany are key countries I don't regard Poland as part of the western elite
    I know. They are just baby Slavs who should bow down to the glory of Great Russia. That's the Kremlin line isn't it?
    Don't think that is an argument maybe it's time to have a look in more shopping trollies for inspiration
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,046
    kle4 said:

    Farooq said:

    GaryL said:

    Foxy said:

    GaryL said:

    glw said:

    GaryL said:

    glw said:

    GaryL said:

    Point is sensible leaders in the west realise this war is going nowhere and costing thousands of lives

    Bollocks do they. Sensible leaders realise that Ukraine has the resolve to fight Russia indefinitely if they armed to do so. But can Russia keep going? Probably not, they will have to escalate or fold. And I suspect that the number of Russian military leaders confident of their ability to wage a greater war is declining by the day. Hell, even Putin probably realises he's fucked it up.
    So why the sounds of compromise from the west tonite you don't do that if you are winning
    Ukraine is unwilling to cede territory. The Russian military needs to bleed, burn, and the survivors go home. America will provide the means to do that.
    How long would that take,, months , years, never meanwhile the developing world starves and the western economies crash
    At current rates of loss, the Russian army will no longer be capable of offensive operations soon. Whether it becomes a stalemate or a rout at that point is unclear.

    If a stalemate though, there will be no end to sanctions.
    I always find doctors some of the most gullible in believing everything they read in the msm, I get my information from many sources
    RT.
    The Kremlin's Twitter feed.
    George Galloway.
    ...
    Don't forget, Derby's very own apologist:




    Chris Williamson
    @DerbyChrisW
    ·
    May 21
    Looks like the sanctions against Russia are collapsing. Italy has massively increased imports of Russian oil. The sanctions are stupid and counterproductive. They should all be lifted immediately and the focus should be on a negotiated peace in #Ukraine

    https://twitter.com/DerbyChrisW/status/1528118402774183938
    I find his sort utterly repellant. They think they are so profound and that calling for peace makes them noble, as if no one had ever thought peace was a good idea until they suggested it, then ignore anything that might make actual agreement complicated or costly. It's moral posturing of the worst kind, at best, and in his case probably just cover for his true thoughts.
    I can accept that some people will argue for peace at any price. But not such a price that it means imposing any sanctions on Russia.

    As for the sanctions being stupid which ones exactly. The 2014 sanctions may not have been tough enough but the end of Russia's ability to buy military kit from the west almost certainly hampered their ability to fight this war. Sanctions don't always lead to governments collapsing but the idea they never achieve anything is rubbish.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,599
    Andy_JS said:

    Farooq said:

    GaryL said:

    Foxy said:

    GaryL said:

    glw said:

    GaryL said:

    glw said:

    GaryL said:

    Point is sensible leaders in the west realise this war is going nowhere and costing thousands of lives

    Bollocks do they. Sensible leaders realise that Ukraine has the resolve to fight Russia indefinitely if they armed to do so. But can Russia keep going? Probably not, they will have to escalate or fold. And I suspect that the number of Russian military leaders confident of their ability to wage a greater war is declining by the day. Hell, even Putin probably realises he's fucked it up.
    So why the sounds of compromise from the west tonite you don't do that if you are winning
    Ukraine is unwilling to cede territory. The Russian military needs to bleed, burn, and the survivors go home. America will provide the means to do that.
    How long would that take,, months , years, never meanwhile the developing world starves and the western economies crash
    At current rates of loss, the Russian army will no longer be capable of offensive operations soon. Whether it becomes a stalemate or a rout at that point is unclear.

    If a stalemate though, there will be no end to sanctions.
    I always find doctors some of the most gullible in believing everything they read in the msm, I get my information from many sources
    RT.
    The Kremlin's Twitter feed.
    George Galloway.
    ...
    Don't forget, Derby's very own apologist:




    Chris Williamson
    @DerbyChrisW
    ·
    May 21
    Looks like the sanctions against Russia are collapsing. Italy has massively increased imports of Russian oil. The sanctions are stupid and counterproductive. They should all be lifted immediately and the focus should be on a negotiated peace in #Ukraine

    https://twitter.com/DerbyChrisW/status/1528118402774183938
    He's an idiot but he may inadvertently be right that eventually a negotiated peace could be an option.
    Oh certainly there will be a negotiated peace at the end. No one is expecting a Ukranian occupation of Moscow, with an imposed puppet government. That though is for the Ukranian government to decide.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,114
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    GaryL said:

    Foxy said:

    GaryL said:

    glw said:

    GaryL said:

    glw said:

    GaryL said:

    Point is sensible leaders in the west realise this war is going nowhere and costing thousands of lives

    Bollocks do they. Sensible leaders realise that Ukraine has the resolve to fight Russia indefinitely if they armed to do so. But can Russia keep going? Probably not, they will have to escalate or fold. And I suspect that the number of Russian military leaders confident of their ability to wage a greater war is declining by the day. Hell, even Putin probably realises he's fucked it up.
    So why the sounds of compromise from the west tonite you don't do that if you are winning
    Ukraine is unwilling to cede territory. The Russian military needs to bleed, burn, and the survivors go home. America will provide the means to do that.
    How long would that take,, months , years, never meanwhile the developing world starves and the western economies crash
    At current rates of loss, the Russian army will no longer be capable of offensive operations soon. Whether it becomes a stalemate or a rout at that point is unclear.

    If a stalemate though, there will be no end to sanctions.
    I always find doctors some of the most gullible in believing everything they read in the msm, I get my information from many sources
    Nah, Russia is toast. Its the Russo-Japanese war revisited, with revolution to come. Oligarchs and their lapdogs should flee while they can.
    Not sure about revolution. Seems just as likely that Vlad will be moved to a hospital for 'treatment' for various 'illnesses' and another group will take over from within the silovik who will find a way out of the morass of Ukraine and concentrate on the home land and its economy and rebuilding a shattered military no longer able to police its own borders.
    Yes, the future of Russia is as an inward looking failed state.
    Quite possibly, fractured statelets which Moscow will struggle to hold together in any coherent nation.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725
    Farooq said:

    I remember back in February when PJohnson was on here pushing the line that Russia was winning and it's best Ukraine rolls over.

    The last few months have not really supported that view. If only PJohnson was still here to defend these view. I'm sure as a reasonable person they have probably now changed their mind in the face of the evidence.

    Quite. Not the only one who pushed that line though, and some albeit more subtle suggest something similar even now by acting as though making victory more costly for Russia is no different than being steamrollered. It's like no one has heard of a pyhrric victory, or noticed wars don't always move in one direction.

    Which is weird, as you'd think such people talking up a 'realist' approach would notice, just as an example, that in the Great Patriotic War Russia initially got beaten quite a bit before things (by heroic effort) turned around.

    That does mean things could get worse for Ukraine as well as better, but for some reason a contrarian pessimist view is presented as definitely more realist than an optimistic view, when it surely depends on the situation.
  • Options
    GaryLGaryL Posts: 131
    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, this is the EASY bit for Russia. Occupying a country of 40+ million people who hate and despise you is essentially impossible, that would suck Russia dry.

    The best thing for Russia, I'm sure @GaryL would agree, would be for them to avoid the deaths of thousands of young men and the impoverishment of their country.

    And how can they avoid such an outcome? Ah yes, Russia can withdraw from Ukraine.

    I agree for the whole country but I certainly think Russia could hold the eastern part
    And unfortunately we don't have the power to order Russia to withdraw from Ukraine
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,599
    GaryL said:

    Foxy said:

    GaryL said:

    Foxy said:

    GaryL said:

    Western elites are clearly losing their resolve as Putin calculated they would

    Not at all. Didn't you see the Polish PM in Kyiv today, promising whatever it takes?

    You may not be aware that we have a free press, so newspapers here are not just government mouth pieces like in your country, so publish a variety of opinions.
    Poland is not the major player in this as I'm sure you know uk USA France and Germany are key countries I don't regard Poland as part of the western elite
    I know. They are just baby Slavs who should bow down to the glory of Great Russia. That's the Kremlin line isn't it?
    Don't think that is an argument maybe it's time to have a look in more shopping trollies for inspiration
    Yeah, perhaps you could update us on the empty shopping trollies in St Petersberg?

    I see the youngsters there are getting restive. How far off is the storming of the Winter Palace?

    Young, urban Russians attend a concert in St. Petersburg.

    The entire crowd is chanting “F the war”.

    One of the few occasions to voice dissent without getting arrested.

    https://t.co/UxP5Q76sNR
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725

    kle4 said:

    Farooq said:

    GaryL said:

    Foxy said:

    GaryL said:

    glw said:

    GaryL said:

    glw said:

    GaryL said:

    Point is sensible leaders in the west realise this war is going nowhere and costing thousands of lives

    Bollocks do they. Sensible leaders realise that Ukraine has the resolve to fight Russia indefinitely if they armed to do so. But can Russia keep going? Probably not, they will have to escalate or fold. And I suspect that the number of Russian military leaders confident of their ability to wage a greater war is declining by the day. Hell, even Putin probably realises he's fucked it up.
    So why the sounds of compromise from the west tonite you don't do that if you are winning
    Ukraine is unwilling to cede territory. The Russian military needs to bleed, burn, and the survivors go home. America will provide the means to do that.
    How long would that take,, months , years, never meanwhile the developing world starves and the western economies crash
    At current rates of loss, the Russian army will no longer be capable of offensive operations soon. Whether it becomes a stalemate or a rout at that point is unclear.

    If a stalemate though, there will be no end to sanctions.
    I always find doctors some of the most gullible in believing everything they read in the msm, I get my information from many sources
    RT.
    The Kremlin's Twitter feed.
    George Galloway.
    ...
    Don't forget, Derby's very own apologist:




    Chris Williamson
    @DerbyChrisW
    ·
    May 21
    Looks like the sanctions against Russia are collapsing. Italy has massively increased imports of Russian oil. The sanctions are stupid and counterproductive. They should all be lifted immediately and the focus should be on a negotiated peace in #Ukraine

    https://twitter.com/DerbyChrisW/status/1528118402774183938
    I find his sort utterly repellant. They think they are so profound and that calling for peace makes them noble, as if no one had ever thought peace was a good idea until they suggested it, then ignore anything that might make actual agreement complicated or costly. It's moral posturing of the worst kind, at best, and in his case probably just cover for his true thoughts.
    I can accept that some people will argue for peace at any price. But not such a price that it means imposing any sanctions on Russia.

    As for the sanctions being stupid which ones exactly. The 2014 sanctions may not have been tough enough but the end of Russia's ability to buy military kit from the west almost certainly hampered their ability to fight this war. Sanctions don't always lead to governments collapsing but the idea they never achieve anything is rubbish.
    Your last point is a vital one. People opposed to doing it at all will quickly leap to saying they are ineffective, typically by judging them against criteria (eg imminent collapse) that no one with an IQ abouve 50 thought was probable.

    We know the sanctions have had at least some effect, because Russia whinged about them (even as it insists everything is fine). They wouldn't bother if it meant nothing.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,847
    When is the Gray report published?
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    GaryL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, this is the EASY bit for Russia. Occupying a country of 40+ million people who hate and despise you is essentially impossible, that would suck Russia dry.

    The best thing for Russia, I'm sure @GaryL would agree, would be for them to avoid the deaths of thousands of young men and the impoverishment of their country.

    And how can they avoid such an outcome? Ah yes, Russia can withdraw from Ukraine.

    I agree for the whole country but I certainly think Russia could hold the eastern part
    And unfortunately we don't have the power to order Russia to withdraw from Ukraine
    Quite the come down from three months ago
    Maybe it might as well go for broke invade Eastern Europe see where the chips land

    Come back in August, and it'll be
    Maybe Russia can hold most of the country east of the Urals?
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,203
    Nigelb said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sophy Ridge monstering the hapless Zahawi was fun , his stuttering , obfuscating and not answering the questions on Boris strongarming Gray was pitiful. Another bumbling useless Tory lickspittle no user.

    friends say Sue Gray was deliberately ostracised while investigating Partygate
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/may/22/she-has-been-horribly-isolated-friends-say-sue-gray-was-deliberately-ostracised-while-investigating-partygate
    ...A Whitehall official who knows about the inquiry was “horrified” by the way Gray had been installed to investigate the organisation she works within, then given minimum help and maximum discouragement from revealing the truth....
    ...The suspicion among many in the civil service is that Gray was asked to do the job because those at No 10 thought that it would be impossible even for someone as respected as Gray to reveal all the system’s wrongdoings from the inside, particularly if she wanted to remain in the civil service afterwards.

    Despite this, Gray has ploughed gamely on, gathering information from emails, photographs, phone logs and police security logs in an attempt to establish what parties happened when, and who attended them.

    This weekend, with days to go before the release of her final report – one that could well have a bearing on how long Boris Johnson can remain prime minister – the pressure on her from No 10 and civil servants is at its height...
    I said as much on here the other day.
  • Options
    GaryLGaryL Posts: 131
    Farooq said:

    GaryL said:

    Farooq said:

    I remember back in February when PJohnson was on here pushing the line that Russia was winning and it's best Ukraine rolls over.

    The last few months have not really supported that view. If only PJohnson was still here to defend these view. I'm sure as a reasonable person they have probably now changed their mind in the face of the evidence.

    Yes Russia suffered setbacks but sadly they are now winning in the donbass hence the conciliatory noises now being made in the west
    I think peak ukrainian resistance is over

    Yes I actually think it would be better if Ukraine surrenders.. their defeat is inevitable

    Putin going for the win tonite [ 25th February :lol: ]

    Breaking news all routes out of Kiev blocked by the russians

    This is "greatest hits" territory and they were only here for 90 comments. Epic.
    You obviously remember this guy well so well you recall his exact quotes, but remember things change, Ukraine got armed by the west and pushed back then the Russians regrouped and started to make gains again in the east
    But the cost in misery and human lives has been immense,, pray for the ukrainians
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,588
    edited May 2022
    Wakefield — votes cast in the constituency at the local elections this year:

    Labour 12082
    Conservatives 8025
    Yorkshire Party 1395
    Greens 1213
    Liberal Democrats 829
    Others 350
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,357

    Looks like Rory McIlroy was a couple of birdies short of a serious challenge. Not a bad suggestion of mine at 100/1 though.

    Some shocking golf played tonight.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,413
    Cyclefree said:

    Nigelb said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sophy Ridge monstering the hapless Zahawi was fun , his stuttering , obfuscating and not answering the questions on Boris strongarming Gray was pitiful. Another bumbling useless Tory lickspittle no user.

    friends say Sue Gray was deliberately ostracised while investigating Partygate
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/may/22/she-has-been-horribly-isolated-friends-say-sue-gray-was-deliberately-ostracised-while-investigating-partygate
    ...A Whitehall official who knows about the inquiry was “horrified” by the way Gray had been installed to investigate the organisation she works within, then given minimum help and maximum discouragement from revealing the truth....
    ...The suspicion among many in the civil service is that Gray was asked to do the job because those at No 10 thought that it would be impossible even for someone as respected as Gray to reveal all the system’s wrongdoings from the inside, particularly if she wanted to remain in the civil service afterwards.

    Despite this, Gray has ploughed gamely on, gathering information from emails, photographs, phone logs and police security logs in an attempt to establish what parties happened when, and who attended them.

    This weekend, with days to go before the release of her final report – one that could well have a bearing on how long Boris Johnson can remain prime minister – the pressure on her from No 10 and civil servants is at its height...
    I said as much on here the other day.
    I dread to think what was said to her in that meeting. Hope she puts the boot right in.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    GaryL said:

    Farooq said:

    GaryL said:

    Farooq said:

    I remember back in February when PJohnson was on here pushing the line that Russia was winning and it's best Ukraine rolls over.

    The last few months have not really supported that view. If only PJohnson was still here to defend these view. I'm sure as a reasonable person they have probably now changed their mind in the face of the evidence.

    Yes Russia suffered setbacks but sadly they are now winning in the donbass hence the conciliatory noises now being made in the west
    I think peak ukrainian resistance is over

    Yes I actually think it would be better if Ukraine surrenders.. their defeat is inevitable

    Putin going for the win tonite [ 25th February :lol: ]

    Breaking news all routes out of Kiev blocked by the russians

    This is "greatest hits" territory and they were only here for 90 comments. Epic.
    You obviously remember this guy well so well you recall his exact quotes, but remember things change, Ukraine got armed by the west and pushed back then the Russians regrouped and started to make gains again in the east
    But the cost in misery and human lives has been immense,, pray for the ukrainians
    Yup, we're repeating lines now:
    "putin is getting serious...pray tonight for the citizens of kiev"
    "let us pray for the ukrainian people and hope they don't pay a heavy price for their resistance"
    "Pray for the ukrainian people tonite...resistance is heroic but always comes with a cost"
  • Options
    GaryLGaryL Posts: 131
    Foxy said:

    GaryL said:

    Foxy said:

    GaryL said:

    Foxy said:

    GaryL said:

    Western elites are clearly losing their resolve as Putin calculated they would

    Not at all. Didn't you see the Polish PM in Kyiv today, promising whatever it takes?

    You may not be aware that we have a free press, so newspapers here are not just government mouth pieces like in your country, so publish a variety of opinions.
    Poland is not the major player in this as I'm sure you know uk USA France and Germany are key countries I don't regard Poland as part of the western elite
    I know. They are just baby Slavs who should bow down to the glory of Great Russia. That's the Kremlin line isn't it?
    Don't think that is an argument maybe it's time to have a look in more shopping trollies for inspiration
    Yeah, perhaps you could update us on the empty shopping trollies in St Petersberg?

    I see the youngsters there are getting restive. How far off is the storming of the Winter Palace?

    Young, urban Russians attend a concert in St. Petersburg.

    The entire crowd is chanting “F the war”.

    One of the few occasions to voice dissent without getting arrested.

    https://t.co/UxP5Q76sNR
    Young urban Russians there are equivalent to 20 something woke islingtonians in the uk and just as unrepresentative
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725
    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, this is the EASY bit for Russia. Occupying a country of 40+ million people who hate and despise you is essentially impossible, that would suck Russia dry.

    The best thing for Russia, I'm sure @GaryL would agree, would be for them to avoid the deaths of thousands of young men and the impoverishment of their country.

    And how can they avoid such an outcome? Ah yes, Russia can withdraw from Ukraine.

    An unintended omission, I am sure.

    But it is why those playing the moral card about how awful it is that 'we' are helping more people die are so bizarre, given that much simpler option. At least 'realists' talking casually about giving up territory (in fairness I cannot see Ukraine ever getting some bits back, but it isn't something to be blase about) are attempting to make some sort of hard calculation about the need to placate even an enemy.

    Those doing it (supposedly) from a perspective of how awful war is don't have a leg to stand on in not focusing on the cause of the violence, but rather the response to it.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,413
    Farooq said:

    GaryL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, this is the EASY bit for Russia. Occupying a country of 40+ million people who hate and despise you is essentially impossible, that would suck Russia dry.

    The best thing for Russia, I'm sure @GaryL would agree, would be for them to avoid the deaths of thousands of young men and the impoverishment of their country.

    And how can they avoid such an outcome? Ah yes, Russia can withdraw from Ukraine.

    I agree for the whole country but I certainly think Russia could hold the eastern part
    And unfortunately we don't have the power to order Russia to withdraw from Ukraine
    Quite the come down from three months ago
    Maybe it might as well go for broke invade Eastern Europe see where the chips land

    Come back in August, and it'll be
    Maybe Russia can hold most of the country east of the Urals?
    I still don't get why Putin went for Kiev. Hubris I suppose.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,599
    GaryL said:

    Farooq said:

    GaryL said:

    Farooq said:

    I remember back in February when PJohnson was on here pushing the line that Russia was winning and it's best Ukraine rolls over.

    The last few months have not really supported that view. If only PJohnson was still here to defend these view. I'm sure as a reasonable person they have probably now changed their mind in the face of the evidence.

    Yes Russia suffered setbacks but sadly they are now winning in the donbass hence the conciliatory noises now being made in the west
    I think peak ukrainian resistance is over

    Yes I actually think it would be better if Ukraine surrenders.. their defeat is inevitable

    Putin going for the win tonite [ 25th February :lol: ]

    Breaking news all routes out of Kiev blocked by the russians

    This is "greatest hits" territory and they were only here for 90 comments. Epic.
    You obviously remember this guy well so well you recall his exact quotes, but remember things change, Ukraine got armed by the west and pushed back then the Russians regrouped and started to make gains again in the east
    But the cost in misery and human lives has been immense,, pray for the ukrainians
    No we must pray for the Russians. Their souls are in extreme peril, and we must pray for them to repent of their evil.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,599

    Farooq said:

    GaryL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, this is the EASY bit for Russia. Occupying a country of 40+ million people who hate and despise you is essentially impossible, that would suck Russia dry.

    The best thing for Russia, I'm sure @GaryL would agree, would be for them to avoid the deaths of thousands of young men and the impoverishment of their country.

    And how can they avoid such an outcome? Ah yes, Russia can withdraw from Ukraine.

    I agree for the whole country but I certainly think Russia could hold the eastern part
    And unfortunately we don't have the power to order Russia to withdraw from Ukraine
    Quite the come down from three months ago
    Maybe it might as well go for broke invade Eastern Europe see where the chips land

    Come back in August, and it'll be
    Maybe Russia can hold most of the country east of the Urals?
    I still don't get why Putin went for Kiev. Hubris I suppose.
    Same folly as most dictators. He believed his own propaganda.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,114
    GaryL said:

    Foxy said:

    GaryL said:

    Foxy said:

    GaryL said:

    Foxy said:

    GaryL said:

    Western elites are clearly losing their resolve as Putin calculated they would

    Not at all. Didn't you see the Polish PM in Kyiv today, promising whatever it takes?

    You may not be aware that we have a free press, so newspapers here are not just government mouth pieces like in your country, so publish a variety of opinions.
    Poland is not the major player in this as I'm sure you know uk USA France and Germany are key countries I don't regard Poland as part of the western elite
    I know. They are just baby Slavs who should bow down to the glory of Great Russia. That's the Kremlin line isn't it?
    Don't think that is an argument maybe it's time to have a look in more shopping trollies for inspiration
    Yeah, perhaps you could update us on the empty shopping trollies in St Petersberg?

    I see the youngsters there are getting restive. How far off is the storming of the Winter Palace?

    Young, urban Russians attend a concert in St. Petersburg.

    The entire crowd is chanting “F the war”.

    One of the few occasions to voice dissent without getting arrested.

    https://t.co/UxP5Q76sNR
    Young urban Russians there are equivalent to 20 something woke islingtonians in the uk and just as unrepresentative
    Young urban Russians with any get up and go are getting up and going. The most lasting consequence of the "special military operation" will be the next generation of people who might have got Russia out of a hole no longer identifying as Russian.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,960
    @GaryL - any particular reason why your IP address shows up in blacklists:


  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    Farooq said:

    GaryL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, this is the EASY bit for Russia. Occupying a country of 40+ million people who hate and despise you is essentially impossible, that would suck Russia dry.

    The best thing for Russia, I'm sure @GaryL would agree, would be for them to avoid the deaths of thousands of young men and the impoverishment of their country.

    And how can they avoid such an outcome? Ah yes, Russia can withdraw from Ukraine.

    I agree for the whole country but I certainly think Russia could hold the eastern part
    And unfortunately we don't have the power to order Russia to withdraw from Ukraine
    Quite the come down from three months ago
    Maybe it might as well go for broke invade Eastern Europe see where the chips land

    Come back in August, and it'll be
    Maybe Russia can hold most of the country east of the Urals?
    I still don't get why Putin went for Kiev. Hubris I suppose.
    Because he wants to remove Ukraine from the map. Fascists love a bit of lebensraum.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,599
    GaryL said:

    Foxy said:

    GaryL said:

    Foxy said:

    GaryL said:

    Foxy said:

    GaryL said:

    Western elites are clearly losing their resolve as Putin calculated they would

    Not at all. Didn't you see the Polish PM in Kyiv today, promising whatever it takes?

    You may not be aware that we have a free press, so newspapers here are not just government mouth pieces like in your country, so publish a variety of opinions.
    Poland is not the major player in this as I'm sure you know uk USA France and Germany are key countries I don't regard Poland as part of the western elite
    I know. They are just baby Slavs who should bow down to the glory of Great Russia. That's the Kremlin line isn't it?
    Don't think that is an argument maybe it's time to have a look in more shopping trollies for inspiration
    Yeah, perhaps you could update us on the empty shopping trollies in St Petersberg?

    I see the youngsters there are getting restive. How far off is the storming of the Winter Palace?

    Young, urban Russians attend a concert in St. Petersburg.

    The entire crowd is chanting “F the war”.

    One of the few occasions to voice dissent without getting arrested.

    https://t.co/UxP5Q76sNR
    Young urban Russians there are equivalent to 20 something woke islingtonians in the uk and just as unrepresentative
    Yes, but it is young urban Russians that start revolutions.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,960

    GaryL said:

    Foxy said:

    GaryL said:

    Foxy said:

    GaryL said:

    Foxy said:

    GaryL said:

    Western elites are clearly losing their resolve as Putin calculated they would

    Not at all. Didn't you see the Polish PM in Kyiv today, promising whatever it takes?

    You may not be aware that we have a free press, so newspapers here are not just government mouth pieces like in your country, so publish a variety of opinions.
    Poland is not the major player in this as I'm sure you know uk USA France and Germany are key countries I don't regard Poland as part of the western elite
    I know. They are just baby Slavs who should bow down to the glory of Great Russia. That's the Kremlin line isn't it?
    Don't think that is an argument maybe it's time to have a look in more shopping trollies for inspiration
    Yeah, perhaps you could update us on the empty shopping trollies in St Petersberg?

    I see the youngsters there are getting restive. How far off is the storming of the Winter Palace?

    Young, urban Russians attend a concert in St. Petersburg.

    The entire crowd is chanting “F the war”.

    One of the few occasions to voice dissent without getting arrested.

    https://t.co/UxP5Q76sNR
    Young urban Russians there are equivalent to 20 something woke islingtonians in the uk and just as unrepresentative
    Young urban Russians with any get up and go are getting up and going. The most lasting consequence of the "special military operation" will be the next generation of people who might have got Russia out of a hole no longer identifying as Russian.
    Don't worry, all the old babushkas in the middle of nowhere will keep waving their Putin photos as Russia fails around them, and as they wonder why the shops are empty and why their grandson seems to have disappeared.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,413
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    GaryL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, this is the EASY bit for Russia. Occupying a country of 40+ million people who hate and despise you is essentially impossible, that would suck Russia dry.

    The best thing for Russia, I'm sure @GaryL would agree, would be for them to avoid the deaths of thousands of young men and the impoverishment of their country.

    And how can they avoid such an outcome? Ah yes, Russia can withdraw from Ukraine.

    I agree for the whole country but I certainly think Russia could hold the eastern part
    And unfortunately we don't have the power to order Russia to withdraw from Ukraine
    Quite the come down from three months ago
    Maybe it might as well go for broke invade Eastern Europe see where the chips land

    Come back in August, and it'll be
    Maybe Russia can hold most of the country east of the Urals?
    I still don't get why Putin went for Kiev. Hubris I suppose.
    Because he wants to remove Ukraine from the map. Fascists love a bit of lebensraum.
    Russia is hardly short of raum.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,588
    O/T

    Not enjoying the current 16 degrees temperature at midnight. First time this year. No AC of course.
  • Options
    GaryLGaryL Posts: 131
    rcs1000 said:

    @GaryL - any particular reason why your IP address shows up in blacklists:


    Oh are you planning to ban me rcs
    I must admit I'm surprised that someone with your high education level and financial success is so insecure they can't take a bit of robust debate however in this you seem typical of many of the western elites
    Let me continue to speak my good friend and you will go up in my estimation considerably
  • Options
    Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,503
    Here's an indirect measure of Russian opinion: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/06/russia-vpn-putin-censorship-disinformation/
    RIGA, Latvia — When Russian authorities blocked hundreds of Internet sites in March, Konstantin decided to act. The 52-year-old company manager in Moscow tore a hole in the Digital Iron Curtain, which had been erected to control the narrative of the war in Ukraine, with a tool that lets him surf blocked sites and eyeball taboo news.

    Konstantin turned to a virtual private network, an encrypted digital tunnel commonly known as a VPN. Since the war began in late February, VPNs have been downloaded in Russia by the hundreds of thousands a day, a massive surge in demand that represents a direct challenge to President Vladimir Putin and his attempt to seal Russians off from the wider world. By protecting the locations and identities of users, VPNs are now granting millions of Russians access to blocked material.
    Mikhail Klimarev, who heads an opposition group ssociated with Navalny, estimates that "the number of VPN users in Russia has risen to roughly 30 percent of the 100 million Internet users in Russia. "
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,150

    Farooq said:

    GaryL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, this is the EASY bit for Russia. Occupying a country of 40+ million people who hate and despise you is essentially impossible, that would suck Russia dry.

    The best thing for Russia, I'm sure @GaryL would agree, would be for them to avoid the deaths of thousands of young men and the impoverishment of their country.

    And how can they avoid such an outcome? Ah yes, Russia can withdraw from Ukraine.

    I agree for the whole country but I certainly think Russia could hold the eastern part
    And unfortunately we don't have the power to order Russia to withdraw from Ukraine
    Quite the come down from three months ago
    Maybe it might as well go for broke invade Eastern Europe see where the chips land

    Come back in August, and it'll be
    Maybe Russia can hold most of the country east of the Urals?
    I still don't get why Putin went for Kiev. Hubris I suppose.
    TBF he wasn't the only person who didn't realize the invasion would fail the way it did. A lot of well-informed people seem to have assumed the Ukrainian government would either collapse like Afghanistan or evacuate to Lviv and leave Putin with his half. Some things are just hard to know until you try them.
  • Options
    GaryLGaryL Posts: 131
    I'm off to bed now rcs so if I don't reply again its not rudeness,,and no I have no idea about my IP maybe it's a mistake Have a good day my good friend
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,960
    GaryL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @GaryL - any particular reason why your IP address shows up in blacklists:


    Oh are you planning to ban me rcs
    I must admit I'm surprised that someone with your high education level and financial success is so insecure they can't take a bit of robust debate however in this you seem typical of many of the western elites
    Let me continue to speak my good friend and you will go up in my estimation considerably
    Nice flattery.

    But how about you explain why your IP address (which you can find by Googling "what's my IP address") is in the Spamhaus database?

    To get there, one of two things is normally the case:

    (1) Your day job is sending unsolicited emails
    or
    (2) You are accessing the Internet via a compromised PC

    Of course, you could just be stupendously unlucky and it is the case that your own machine has been compromised. In which case, I'd advise you to backup any files you need to a USB drive, and then reformat your hard drive and start over.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,847
    edited May 2022
    GaryL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @GaryL - any particular reason why your IP address shows up in blacklists:


    Oh are you planning to ban me rcs
    I must admit I'm surprised that someone with your high education level and financial success is so insecure they can't take a bit of robust debate however in this you seem typical of many of the western elites
    Let me continue to speak my good friend and you will go up in my estimation considerably
    We don’t have any western elites around here since Charles stormed off in a huff because somebody outed his Aunt Fanny.
  • Options
    ClippPClippP Posts: 1,684
    GaryL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, this is the EASY bit for Russia. Occupying a country of 40+ million people who hate and despise you is essentially impossible, that would suck Russia dry.

    The best thing for Russia, I'm sure @GaryL would agree, would be for them to avoid the deaths of thousands of young men and the impoverishment of their country.

    And how can they avoid such an outcome? Ah yes, Russia can withdraw from Ukraine.

    I agree for the whole country but I certainly think Russia could hold the eastern part
    And unfortunately we don't have the power to order Russia to withdraw from Ukraine
    But I thought that Putin had already been confined to quarters by the Generals and the Oligarchs. Putin's Russia is already in retreat.

    It is time for Russia to reclaim her place in the real world under a new leader.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,189
    Some special golf being played in Oklahoma this evening.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,588
    edited May 2022
    The UnHerd piece I posted earlier is one of the best essays I've read for many months. [The one slightly silly thing in it was the bit about "evidence based medicine" which caused someone below to say they weren't going to read any more of it].
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,357
    tlg86 said:

    Some special golf being played in Oklahoma this evening.

    Some bloody awful golf, more like. Poor old Mito, leading all day, needing par to win and finding the water on the last hole. Young & Fitzpatrick also threw away winning chances.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 4,795
    Even if the Sue Gray report is bad for Johnson once again the timing has come to his rescue .

    Parliament goes into recess on Thursday and isn’t back till June 6th .
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,189

    tlg86 said:

    Some special golf being played in Oklahoma this evening.

    Some bloody awful golf, more like. Poor old Mito, leading all day, needing par to win and finding the water on the last hole. Young & Fitzpatrick also threw away winning chances.
    Getting over the line is difficult.

    Amazing shot by Thomas on the second play-off hole. Now, can he close the deal where Pereira couldn’t?
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,269

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    GaryL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, this is the EASY bit for Russia. Occupying a country of 40+ million people who hate and despise you is essentially impossible, that would suck Russia dry.

    The best thing for Russia, I'm sure @GaryL would agree, would be for them to avoid the deaths of thousands of young men and the impoverishment of their country.

    And how can they avoid such an outcome? Ah yes, Russia can withdraw from Ukraine.

    I agree for the whole country but I certainly think Russia could hold the eastern part
    And unfortunately we don't have the power to order Russia to withdraw from Ukraine
    Quite the come down from three months ago
    Maybe it might as well go for broke invade Eastern Europe see where the chips land

    Come back in August, and it'll be
    Maybe Russia can hold most of the country east of the Urals?
    I still don't get why Putin went for Kiev. Hubris I suppose.
    Because he wants to remove Ukraine from the map. Fascists love a bit of lebensraum.
    Russia is hardly short of raum.
    "Tsar Alexander made it all the way to Paris!" - Stalin, 1945.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,588
    edited May 2022

    tlg86 said:

    Some special golf being played in Oklahoma this evening.

    Some bloody awful golf, more like. Poor old Mito, leading all day, needing par to win and finding the water on the last hole. Young & Fitzpatrick also threw away winning chances.
    Playing golf might be interesting but I've never understood the attraction of watching it. 😊
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,357
    Andy_JS said:

    tlg86 said:

    Some special golf being played in Oklahoma this evening.

    Some bloody awful golf, more like. Poor old Mito, leading all day, needing par to win and finding the water on the last hole. Young & Fitzpatrick also threw away winning chances.
    Playing golf might be interesting but I've never understood the attraction of watching it. 😊
    You can bet on it.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,114
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Not enjoying the current 16 degrees temperature at midnight. First time this year. No AC of course.

    Great for the moths though! Must be close to 100 species so far tonight.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,357

    Andy_JS said:

    tlg86 said:

    Some special golf being played in Oklahoma this evening.

    Some bloody awful golf, more like. Poor old Mito, leading all day, needing par to win and finding the water on the last hole. Young & Fitzpatrick also threw away winning chances.
    Playing golf might be interesting but I've never understood the attraction of watching it. 😊
    You can bet on it.
    Justin Thomas has won the US PGA. Second favourite at the start but 700/1 in-running.
  • Options
    Ally_B1Ally_B1 Posts: 46
    GaryL said:

    I'm off to bed now rcs so if I don't reply again its not rudeness,,and no I have no idea about my IP maybe it's a mistake Have a good day my good friend

    I too am off to bed (UK) but your use of language reminds me of a previous poster who bleated on about the problems this unjust war might cause the Ukrainians. Shirely no relation?
  • Options
    AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    GaryL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @GaryL - any particular reason why your IP address shows up in blacklists:


    Oh are you planning to ban me rcs
    I must admit I'm surprised that someone with your high education level and financial success is so insecure they can't take a bit of robust debate however in this you seem typical of many of the western elites
    Let me continue to speak my good friend and you will go up in my estimation considerably
    True salt of the Earth Brits often refer to people as 'Western elites'. Haha. You have a shit job in a shit country with a shit leader.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,847
    Aslan said:

    GaryL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @GaryL - any particular reason why your IP address shows up in blacklists:


    Oh are you planning to ban me rcs
    I must admit I'm surprised that someone with your high education level and financial success is so insecure they can't take a bit of robust debate however in this you seem typical of many of the western elites
    Let me continue to speak my good friend and you will go up in my estimation considerably
    True salt of the Earth Brits often refer to people as 'Western elites'. Haha. You have a shit job in a shit country with a shit leader.
    You mean he works as a coat clerk in a nightclub in Luton?
  • Options
    AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    GaryL said:

    Foxy said:

    GaryL said:

    glw said:

    GaryL said:

    glw said:

    GaryL said:

    Point is sensible leaders in the west realise this war is going nowhere and costing thousands of lives

    Bollocks do they. Sensible leaders realise that Ukraine has the resolve to fight Russia indefinitely if they armed to do so. But can Russia keep going? Probably not, they will have to escalate or fold. And I suspect that the number of Russian military leaders confident of their ability to wage a greater war is declining by the day. Hell, even Putin probably realises he's fucked it up.
    So why the sounds of compromise from the west tonite you don't do that if you are winning
    Ukraine is unwilling to cede territory. The Russian military needs to bleed, burn, and the survivors go home. America will provide the means to do that.
    How long would that take,, months , years, never meanwhile the developing world starves and the western economies crash
    At current rates of loss, the Russian army will no longer be capable of offensive operations soon. Whether it becomes a stalemate or a rout at that point is unclear.

    If a stalemate though, there will be no end to sanctions.
    I always find doctors some of the most gullible in believing everything they read in the msm, I get my information from many sources
    Nah, Russia is toast. Its the Russo-Japanese war revisited, with revolution to come. Oligarchs and their lapdogs should flee while they can.
    Not sure about revolution. Seems just as likely that Vlad will be moved to a hospital for 'treatment' for various 'illnesses' and another group will take over from within the silovik who will find a way out of the morass of Ukraine and concentrate on the home land and its economy and rebuilding a shattered military no longer able to police its own borders.
    Yes, the future of Russia is as an inward looking failed state.
    Quite possibly, fractured statelets which Moscow will struggle to hold together in any coherent nation.
    We can Westernize and democratize them one by one. After Ukraine and Belarus, we can start with Kaliningrad.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,847
    edited May 2022
    Good article here on Britain’s trajectory be the “advanced nations’ stagflation capital.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-19/stagflation-shock-to-uk-likely-to-be-among-world-s-worst

    The UK’s inflation shock will be nastier than in the US and Europe, says Alfred Kammer, the IMF’s European director, because it combines “the worst of the two worlds”—America’s labor shortages and Europe’s energy crisis. Both can be traced to structural capacity shortages.


    Almost half of the UK’s gas is domestic, sourced from the North Sea, but there’s no storage. Rough, the last major facility, was closed in 2017 because it had become “uneconomic,” according to its owner. This, combined with a laissez-faire approach to energy security that’s put almost half the country’s nuclear power capacity on track to be decommissioned by 2024—two years before any replacement comes onstream—has left the UK exposed to the whims of the spot price in energy markets.



    Michael Saunders, a member of the Bank of England’s rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee, on May 9 said it was “possible that Brexit has steepened the wage and price curves” by reducing labor supply and curtailing some imports.

    The labor market is now so tight that, for the first time ever, there are more job vacancies than there are unemployed. Since the start of the pandemic, the workforce has shrunk by 440,000. Almost half the decline can be accounted for by a drop in EU workers.
  • Options
    AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    Good article here on Britain’s trajectory be the “advanced nations’ stagflation capital.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-19/stagflation-shock-to-uk-likely-to-be-among-world-s-worst

    The UK’s inflation shock will be nastier than in the US and Europe, says Alfred Kammer, the IMF’s European director, because it combines “the worst of the two worlds”—America’s labor shortages and Europe’s energy crisis. Both can be traced to structural capacity shortages.


    Almost half of the UK’s gas is domestic, sourced from the North Sea, but there’s no storage. Rough, the last major facility, was closed in 2017 because it had become “uneconomic,” according to its owner. This, combined with a laissez-faire approach to energy security that’s put almost half the country’s nuclear power capacity on track to be decommissioned by 2024—two years before any replacement comes onstream—has left the UK exposed to the whims of the spot price in energy markets.



    Michael Saunders, a member of the Bank of England’s rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee, on May 9 said it was “possible that Brexit has steepened the wage and price curves” by reducing labor supply and curtailing some imports.

    The labor market is now so tight that, for the first time ever, there are more job vacancies than there are unemployed. Since the start of the pandemic, the workforce has shrunk by 440,000. Almost half the decline can be accounted for by a drop in EU workers.

    This is all technical language for wages going up very quickly for the poor. Low income wages are going up faster than inflation. Restricting unskilled immigration works.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,357
    .
    Aslan said:

    Good article here on Britain’s trajectory be the “advanced nations’ stagflation capital.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-19/stagflation-shock-to-uk-likely-to-be-among-world-s-worst

    The UK’s inflation shock will be nastier than in the US and Europe, says Alfred Kammer, the IMF’s European director, because it combines “the worst of the two worlds”—America’s labor shortages and Europe’s energy crisis. Both can be traced to structural capacity shortages.


    Almost half of the UK’s gas is domestic, sourced from the North Sea, but there’s no storage. Rough, the last major facility, was closed in 2017 because it had become “uneconomic,” according to its owner. This, combined with a laissez-faire approach to energy security that’s put almost half the country’s nuclear power capacity on track to be decommissioned by 2024—two years before any replacement comes onstream—has left the UK exposed to the whims of the spot price in energy markets.



    Michael Saunders, a member of the Bank of England’s rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee, on May 9 said it was “possible that Brexit has steepened the wage and price curves” by reducing labor supply and curtailing some imports.

    The labor market is now so tight that, for the first time ever, there are more job vacancies than there are unemployed. Since the start of the pandemic, the workforce has shrunk by 440,000. Almost half the decline can be accounted for by a drop in EU workers.

    This is all technical language for wages going up very quickly for the poor. Low income wages are going up faster than inflation. Restricting unskilled immigration works.
    Some of it is technical language for we should not sneer at Angela Merkel for closing Germany's nuclear power stations with no replacement ready. Motes and beams.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,847
    Aslan said:

    Good article here on Britain’s trajectory be the “advanced nations’ stagflation capital.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-19/stagflation-shock-to-uk-likely-to-be-among-world-s-worst

    The UK’s inflation shock will be nastier than in the US and Europe, says Alfred Kammer, the IMF’s European director, because it combines “the worst of the two worlds”—America’s labor shortages and Europe’s energy crisis. Both can be traced to structural capacity shortages.


    Almost half of the UK’s gas is domestic, sourced from the North Sea, but there’s no storage. Rough, the last major facility, was closed in 2017 because it had become “uneconomic,” according to its owner. This, combined with a laissez-faire approach to energy security that’s put almost half the country’s nuclear power capacity on track to be decommissioned by 2024—two years before any replacement comes onstream—has left the UK exposed to the whims of the spot price in energy markets.



    Michael Saunders, a member of the Bank of England’s rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee, on May 9 said it was “possible that Brexit has steepened the wage and price curves” by reducing labor supply and curtailing some imports.

    The labor market is now so tight that, for the first time ever, there are more job vacancies than there are unemployed. Since the start of the pandemic, the workforce has shrunk by 440,000. Almost half the decline can be accounted for by a drop in EU workers.

    This is all technical language for wages going up very quickly for the poor. Low income wages are going up faster than inflation. Restricting unskilled immigration works.
    So this inflationary spike is to be welcomed?
    OK. Try selling that to the red wall. Even Boris doesn’t try that one anymore.
  • Options
    AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    Aslan said:

    Good article here on Britain’s trajectory be the “advanced nations’ stagflation capital.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-19/stagflation-shock-to-uk-likely-to-be-among-world-s-worst

    The UK’s inflation shock will be nastier than in the US and Europe, says Alfred Kammer, the IMF’s European director, because it combines “the worst of the two worlds”—America’s labor shortages and Europe’s energy crisis. Both can be traced to structural capacity shortages.


    Almost half of the UK’s gas is domestic, sourced from the North Sea, but there’s no storage. Rough, the last major facility, was closed in 2017 because it had become “uneconomic,” according to its owner. This, combined with a laissez-faire approach to energy security that’s put almost half the country’s nuclear power capacity on track to be decommissioned by 2024—two years before any replacement comes onstream—has left the UK exposed to the whims of the spot price in energy markets.



    Michael Saunders, a member of the Bank of England’s rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee, on May 9 said it was “possible that Brexit has steepened the wage and price curves” by reducing labor supply and curtailing some imports.

    The labor market is now so tight that, for the first time ever, there are more job vacancies than there are unemployed. Since the start of the pandemic, the workforce has shrunk by 440,000. Almost half the decline can be accounted for by a drop in EU workers.

    This is all technical language for wages going up very quickly for the poor. Low income wages are going up faster than inflation. Restricting unskilled immigration works.
    So this inflationary spike is to be welcomed?
    OK. Try selling that to the red wall. Even Boris doesn’t try that one anymore.
    There are two elements to the inflationary spike. One is low income labour, one is energy cost. The first part is to be welcomed, the second is not. But those of you saying "Brexit is awful because it's costing us all because these plebs are being paid too much" are showing how little you care about the British working class.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,847
    Aslan said:

    Aslan said:

    Good article here on Britain’s trajectory be the “advanced nations’ stagflation capital.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-19/stagflation-shock-to-uk-likely-to-be-among-world-s-worst

    The UK’s inflation shock will be nastier than in the US and Europe, says Alfred Kammer, the IMF’s European director, because it combines “the worst of the two worlds”—America’s labor shortages and Europe’s energy crisis. Both can be traced to structural capacity shortages.


    Almost half of the UK’s gas is domestic, sourced from the North Sea, but there’s no storage. Rough, the last major facility, was closed in 2017 because it had become “uneconomic,” according to its owner. This, combined with a laissez-faire approach to energy security that’s put almost half the country’s nuclear power capacity on track to be decommissioned by 2024—two years before any replacement comes onstream—has left the UK exposed to the whims of the spot price in energy markets.



    Michael Saunders, a member of the Bank of England’s rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee, on May 9 said it was “possible that Brexit has steepened the wage and price curves” by reducing labor supply and curtailing some imports.

    The labor market is now so tight that, for the first time ever, there are more job vacancies than there are unemployed. Since the start of the pandemic, the workforce has shrunk by 440,000. Almost half the decline can be accounted for by a drop in EU workers.

    This is all technical language for wages going up very quickly for the poor. Low income wages are going up faster than inflation. Restricting unskilled immigration works.
    So this inflationary spike is to be welcomed?
    OK. Try selling that to the red wall. Even Boris doesn’t try that one anymore.
    There are two elements to the inflationary spike. One is low income labour, one is energy cost. The first part is to be welcomed, the second is not. But those of you saying "Brexit is awful because it's costing us all because these plebs are being paid too much" are showing how little you care about the British working class.
    Where are all those low wage winners?
    They exist merely in your embittered fantasies.

    Inflation is a problem for everyone.
  • Options
    AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    Aslan said:

    Aslan said:

    Good article here on Britain’s trajectory be the “advanced nations’ stagflation capital.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-19/stagflation-shock-to-uk-likely-to-be-among-world-s-worst

    The UK’s inflation shock will be nastier than in the US and Europe, says Alfred Kammer, the IMF’s European director, because it combines “the worst of the two worlds”—America’s labor shortages and Europe’s energy crisis. Both can be traced to structural capacity shortages.


    Almost half of the UK’s gas is domestic, sourced from the North Sea, but there’s no storage. Rough, the last major facility, was closed in 2017 because it had become “uneconomic,” according to its owner. This, combined with a laissez-faire approach to energy security that’s put almost half the country’s nuclear power capacity on track to be decommissioned by 2024—two years before any replacement comes onstream—has left the UK exposed to the whims of the spot price in energy markets.



    Michael Saunders, a member of the Bank of England’s rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee, on May 9 said it was “possible that Brexit has steepened the wage and price curves” by reducing labor supply and curtailing some imports.

    The labor market is now so tight that, for the first time ever, there are more job vacancies than there are unemployed. Since the start of the pandemic, the workforce has shrunk by 440,000. Almost half the decline can be accounted for by a drop in EU workers.

    This is all technical language for wages going up very quickly for the poor. Low income wages are going up faster than inflation. Restricting unskilled immigration works.
    So this inflationary spike is to be welcomed?
    OK. Try selling that to the red wall. Even Boris doesn’t try that one anymore.
    There are two elements to the inflationary spike. One is low income labour, one is energy cost. The first part is to be welcomed, the second is not. But those of you saying "Brexit is awful because it's costing us all because these plebs are being paid too much" are showing how little you care about the British working class.
    Where are all those low wage winners?
    They exist merely in your embittered fantasies.

    Inflation is a problem for everyone.
    What do you think it means when lack of labour supply causes inflation?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,568
    Aslan said:

    Good article here on Britain’s trajectory be the “advanced nations’ stagflation capital.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-19/stagflation-shock-to-uk-likely-to-be-among-world-s-worst

    The UK’s inflation shock will be nastier than in the US and Europe, says Alfred Kammer, the IMF’s European director, because it combines “the worst of the two worlds”—America’s labor shortages and Europe’s energy crisis. Both can be traced to structural capacity shortages.


    Almost half of the UK’s gas is domestic, sourced from the North Sea, but there’s no storage. Rough, the last major facility, was closed in 2017 because it had become “uneconomic,” according to its owner. This, combined with a laissez-faire approach to energy security that’s put almost half the country’s nuclear power capacity on track to be decommissioned by 2024—two years before any replacement comes onstream—has left the UK exposed to the whims of the spot price in energy markets.



    Michael Saunders, a member of the Bank of England’s rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee, on May 9 said it was “possible that Brexit has steepened the wage and price curves” by reducing labor supply and curtailing some imports.

    The labor market is now so tight that, for the first time ever, there are more job vacancies than there are unemployed. Since the start of the pandemic, the workforce has shrunk by 440,000. Almost half the decline can be accounted for by a drop in EU workers.

    This is all technical language for wages going up very quickly for the poor. Low income wages are going up faster than inflation. Restricting unskilled immigration works.
    Where is your evidence for that ?
    I’m sure it’s true that some low income wages are, but in general ?

    The effect of high inflation will be what it always is. It will create winners and losers, but more of the latter than the former - and that includes among the low paid.

  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,568
    Interesting.
    President Zelenskyy announces introduction of joint customs control with Poland

    It will speed up border procedures, remove most of the corruption risks, he believes, "It's also the beginning of our integration into the common customs space of the EU"

    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1528495920958021633
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,568
    ‘Bout those low paid winners….

    Pay gap in UK between bosses and workers likely to widen in 2022
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/may/23/pay-gap-in-uk-between-bosses-and-workers-likely-to-widen-in-2022
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,568
    Record 420,000 children a month in England treated for mental health problems
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/may/22/record-420000-children-in-england-treated-for-mental-health-problems
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,108
    Fascinating to watch Putin-bot @GaryL disassemble itself in real-time, from matey chat about holidays to undisguised agitprop about “western elites”, in about 3 hours

    Again, one is drawn to the conclusion that Russia is not as good at the Great Cyber Game as we all supposed
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,844
    Leon said:

    Fascinating to watch Putin-bot @GaryL disassemble itself in real-time, from matey chat about holidays to undisguised agitprop about “western elites”, in about 3 hours

    Again, one is drawn to the conclusion that Russia is not as good at the Great Cyber Game as we all supposed

    They probably just assume people in the west are as gullible as their own population while forgetting the reason they can pull the wool over the eyes of their own population is because they restrict the information flow
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,990
    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    Fascinating to watch Putin-bot @GaryL disassemble itself in real-time, from matey chat about holidays to undisguised agitprop about “western elites”, in about 3 hours

    Again, one is drawn to the conclusion that Russia is not as good at the Great Cyber Game as we all supposed

    They probably just assume people in the west are as gullible as their own population while forgetting the reason they can pull the wool over the eyes of their own population is because they restrict the information flow
    I'm unsure that's the entire plan. Pro-Russia bots could come in all shapes and sizes - from the 'obvious' ones - and there are plenty of those about on t'Interwebs - to the more subtle.

    Putin's apparatus has shown a desire to divide his opponents; to force divisions between groups. That may be countries or groups within countries. So as well as the obvious Russian troll line, I would expect toe more capable of his agents to have looked at those fracture lines and widened them. And they might not play just one side, but both. For Putin, often what matters is not which side wins, but the divisions the arguments sow.

    Let's take the example of an imaginary green group who protest on the streets. On the face of it, funding such groups goes against Russia's interests, as they are a gas-n-oil economy. But they don't expect the group to win; what they expect is for the group to disrupt things, cause trouble and widen divisions. The leaders of any such group might not even know where their funding is coming from, given the somewhat nebulous donations systems. But a few thousand roubles spent funding the 'right' people in the organisation might reap rich rewards.

    It doesn't have to be green groups, either - any group that has lax systems, is nebulous but carries a loud voice would be prone to such stuff.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,161

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    Fascinating to watch Putin-bot @GaryL disassemble itself in real-time, from matey chat about holidays to undisguised agitprop about “western elites”, in about 3 hours

    Again, one is drawn to the conclusion that Russia is not as good at the Great Cyber Game as we all supposed

    They probably just assume people in the west are as gullible as their own population while forgetting the reason they can pull the wool over the eyes of their own population is because they restrict the information flow
    I'm unsure that's the entire plan. Pro-Russia bots could come in all shapes and sizes - from the 'obvious' ones - and there are plenty of those about on t'Interwebs - to the more subtle.

    Putin's apparatus has shown a desire to divide his opponents; to force divisions between groups. That may be countries or groups within countries. So as well as the obvious Russian troll line, I would expect toe more capable of his agents to have looked at those fracture lines and widened them. And they might not play just one side, but both. For Putin, often what matters is not which side wins, but the divisions the arguments sow.

    Let's take the example of an imaginary green group who protest on the streets. On the face of it, funding such groups goes against Russia's interests, as they are a gas-n-oil economy. But they don't expect the group to win; what they expect is for the group to disrupt things, cause trouble and widen divisions. The leaders of any such group might not even know where their funding is coming from, given the somewhat nebulous donations systems. But a few thousand roubles spent funding the 'right' people in the organisation might reap rich rewards.

    It doesn't have to be green groups, either - any group that has lax systems, is nebulous but carries a loud voice would be prone to such stuff.
    It’s been going on for a while. In 2014 the guardian reported of GAzproms links with anti fracking groups.

    https://twitter.com/ziontree/status/1497998920739274757
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,735

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    Fascinating to watch Putin-bot @GaryL disassemble itself in real-time, from matey chat about holidays to undisguised agitprop about “western elites”, in about 3 hours

    Again, one is drawn to the conclusion that Russia is not as good at the Great Cyber Game as we all supposed

    They probably just assume people in the west are as gullible as their own population while forgetting the reason they can pull the wool over the eyes of their own population is because they restrict the information flow
    I'm unsure that's the entire plan. Pro-Russia bots could come in all shapes and sizes - from the 'obvious' ones - and there are plenty of those about on t'Interwebs - to the more subtle.

    Putin's apparatus has shown a desire to divide his opponents; to force divisions between groups. That may be countries or groups within countries. So as well as the obvious Russian troll line, I would expect toe more capable of his agents to have looked at those fracture lines and widened them. And they might not play just one side, but both. For Putin, often what matters is not which side wins, but the divisions the arguments sow.

    Let's take the example of an imaginary green group who protest on the streets. On the face of it, funding such groups goes against Russia's interests, as they are a gas-n-oil economy. But they don't expect the group to win; what they expect is for the group to disrupt things, cause trouble and widen divisions. The leaders of any such group might not even know where their funding is coming from, given the somewhat nebulous donations systems. But a few thousand roubles spent funding the 'right' people in the organisation might reap rich rewards.

    It doesn't have to be green groups, either - any group that has lax systems, is nebulous but carries a loud voice would be prone to such stuff.
    The Tory party?
  • Options
    darkagedarkage Posts: 4,796

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    Fascinating to watch Putin-bot @GaryL disassemble itself in real-time, from matey chat about holidays to undisguised agitprop about “western elites”, in about 3 hours

    Again, one is drawn to the conclusion that Russia is not as good at the Great Cyber Game as we all supposed

    They probably just assume people in the west are as gullible as their own population while forgetting the reason they can pull the wool over the eyes of their own population is because they restrict the information flow
    I'm unsure that's the entire plan. Pro-Russia bots could come in all shapes and sizes - from the 'obvious' ones - and there are plenty of those about on t'Interwebs - to the more subtle.

    Putin's apparatus has shown a desire to divide his opponents; to force divisions between groups. That may be countries or groups within countries. So as well as the obvious Russian troll line, I would expect toe more capable of his agents to have looked at those fracture lines and widened them. And they might not play just one side, but both. For Putin, often what matters is not which side wins, but the divisions the arguments sow.

    Let's take the example of an imaginary green group who protest on the streets. On the face of it, funding such groups goes against Russia's interests, as they are a gas-n-oil economy. But they don't expect the group to win; what they expect is for the group to disrupt things, cause trouble and widen divisions. The leaders of any such group might not even know where their funding is coming from, given the somewhat nebulous donations systems. But a few thousand roubles spent funding the 'right' people in the organisation might reap rich rewards.

    It doesn't have to be green groups, either - any group that has lax systems, is nebulous but carries a loud voice would be prone to such stuff.
    Yes, I have to admit though, that it is very clever. It turns the notion of 'debate' in to a sham; because any political debate can be easily corrupted by malicious actors due to the essentially unlimited freedom to broadcast. The effective lack of regulation means that entire pillars of civilisation are very weak, you only need to plant a few seeds to take down the whole thing - people will happily, innocently, unknowingly and sincerely do your work for you.


  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,990

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    Fascinating to watch Putin-bot @GaryL disassemble itself in real-time, from matey chat about holidays to undisguised agitprop about “western elites”, in about 3 hours

    Again, one is drawn to the conclusion that Russia is not as good at the Great Cyber Game as we all supposed

    They probably just assume people in the west are as gullible as their own population while forgetting the reason they can pull the wool over the eyes of their own population is because they restrict the information flow
    I'm unsure that's the entire plan. Pro-Russia bots could come in all shapes and sizes - from the 'obvious' ones - and there are plenty of those about on t'Interwebs - to the more subtle.

    Putin's apparatus has shown a desire to divide his opponents; to force divisions between groups. That may be countries or groups within countries. So as well as the obvious Russian troll line, I would expect toe more capable of his agents to have looked at those fracture lines and widened them. And they might not play just one side, but both. For Putin, often what matters is not which side wins, but the divisions the arguments sow.

    Let's take the example of an imaginary green group who protest on the streets. On the face of it, funding such groups goes against Russia's interests, as they are a gas-n-oil economy. But they don't expect the group to win; what they expect is for the group to disrupt things, cause trouble and widen divisions. The leaders of any such group might not even know where their funding is coming from, given the somewhat nebulous donations systems. But a few thousand roubles spent funding the 'right' people in the organisation might reap rich rewards.

    It doesn't have to be green groups, either - any group that has lax systems, is nebulous but carries a loud voice would be prone to such stuff.
    The Tory party?
    Perhaps. But if that was Russian state funding to influence policy, then they've utterly failed given the Conservative government have been at the forefront of training and arming Ukraine.

    The Russian regime's relationship with Britain is odd. Their recent words make us out to be the big bad, and Litvinenko and Salisbury show that they saw us as an enemy even back then. Might it just be that because the Russian regime disliked us, rich Russians saw us as a safeish place to stash money, one who would not do a deal with the Russian regime?

    Not every Russian is pro-Putin, and the richer you were, the more connections you would have to have had. But even the Putinites might have looked for safe havens in case the regime decided they had to fall off a balcony.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,990
    darkage said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    Fascinating to watch Putin-bot @GaryL disassemble itself in real-time, from matey chat about holidays to undisguised agitprop about “western elites”, in about 3 hours

    Again, one is drawn to the conclusion that Russia is not as good at the Great Cyber Game as we all supposed

    They probably just assume people in the west are as gullible as their own population while forgetting the reason they can pull the wool over the eyes of their own population is because they restrict the information flow
    I'm unsure that's the entire plan. Pro-Russia bots could come in all shapes and sizes - from the 'obvious' ones - and there are plenty of those about on t'Interwebs - to the more subtle.

    Putin's apparatus has shown a desire to divide his opponents; to force divisions between groups. That may be countries or groups within countries. So as well as the obvious Russian troll line, I would expect toe more capable of his agents to have looked at those fracture lines and widened them. And they might not play just one side, but both. For Putin, often what matters is not which side wins, but the divisions the arguments sow.

    Let's take the example of an imaginary green group who protest on the streets. On the face of it, funding such groups goes against Russia's interests, as they are a gas-n-oil economy. But they don't expect the group to win; what they expect is for the group to disrupt things, cause trouble and widen divisions. The leaders of any such group might not even know where their funding is coming from, given the somewhat nebulous donations systems. But a few thousand roubles spent funding the 'right' people in the organisation might reap rich rewards.

    It doesn't have to be green groups, either - any group that has lax systems, is nebulous but carries a loud voice would be prone to such stuff.
    Yes, I have to admit though, that it is very clever. It turns the notion of 'debate' in to a sham; because any political debate can be easily corrupted by malicious actors due to the essentially unlimited freedom to broadcast. The effective lack of regulation means that entire pillars of civilisation are very weak, you only need to plant a few seeds to take down the whole thing - people will happily, innocently, unknowingly and sincerely do your work for you.
    Just in case anyone thinks I've taken an anti-green stance with that post, I'd point out two other areas that Russia may have wanted to 'provoke' debate - the right-wing nutters in the US and their counterparts, the left-wing nutters. The more those two sides screech at each other, the more the chasm between them grows, the weaker America becomes.

    It might not just be Russia either.

    And (whispers quietly); I would not be surprised if we did the same, on a smaller scale. Although the more controlled media of our likely opponents makes it harder to do.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,735

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    Fascinating to watch Putin-bot @GaryL disassemble itself in real-time, from matey chat about holidays to undisguised agitprop about “western elites”, in about 3 hours

    Again, one is drawn to the conclusion that Russia is not as good at the Great Cyber Game as we all supposed

    They probably just assume people in the west are as gullible as their own population while forgetting the reason they can pull the wool over the eyes of their own population is because they restrict the information flow
    I'm unsure that's the entire plan. Pro-Russia bots could come in all shapes and sizes - from the 'obvious' ones - and there are plenty of those about on t'Interwebs - to the more subtle.

    Putin's apparatus has shown a desire to divide his opponents; to force divisions between groups. That may be countries or groups within countries. So as well as the obvious Russian troll line, I would expect toe more capable of his agents to have looked at those fracture lines and widened them. And they might not play just one side, but both. For Putin, often what matters is not which side wins, but the divisions the arguments sow.

    Let's take the example of an imaginary green group who protest on the streets. On the face of it, funding such groups goes against Russia's interests, as they are a gas-n-oil economy. But they don't expect the group to win; what they expect is for the group to disrupt things, cause trouble and widen divisions. The leaders of any such group might not even know where their funding is coming from, given the somewhat nebulous donations systems. But a few thousand roubles spent funding the 'right' people in the organisation might reap rich rewards.

    It doesn't have to be green groups, either - any group that has lax systems, is nebulous but carries a loud voice would be prone to such stuff.
    The Tory party?
    Perhaps. But if that was Russian state funding to influence policy, then they've utterly failed given the Conservative government have been at the forefront of training and arming Ukraine.

    The Russian regime's relationship with Britain is odd. Their recent words make us out to be the big bad, and Litvinenko and Salisbury show that they saw us as an enemy even back then. Might it just be that because the Russian regime disliked us, rich Russians saw us as a safeish place to stash money, one who would not do a deal with the Russian regime?

    Not every Russian is pro-Putin, and the richer you were, the more connections you would have to have had. But even the Putinites might have looked for safe havens in case the regime decided they had to fall off a balcony.
    Or perhaps, in a slightly more complicated world, they had more than one policy aim? Encouraging a lack of respect for independent judiciary an obvious example, or encouraging protectionism in the west.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,568
    Here’s more ‘settled law’ the Republicans seem to be thinking about challenging.

    "U.S. Supreme Court majority opinion (5–4) led by Chief Justice Earl Warren in Reynolds v. Sims (1964) ruled that state legislatures, unlike the U.S. Congress, needed to have representation in both houses that was based on districts containing roughly equal populations, with redistricting as needed after censuses."

    This nut is very unlikely to get elected, but he might be the Republican nominee.
    https://coloradosun.com/2022/04/09/greg-lopez-heidi-ganahl-colorado-governer-primary-gop/

    Colorado GOP candidate wants to eliminate statewide popular vote so Republicans can win more races
    https://www.salon.com/2022/05/19/colorado-candidate-wants-to-eliminate-statewide-popular-vote-so-can-win-more-races_partner/

    Under Lopez's plan, each county would get between three and eleven electoral votes, depending not on their population, but on their voter turnout rate. As 9NEWS noted, "Colorado's rural, conservative counties had seven of the 10 highest voter turnout percentages in the 2018 race for governor. Those counties had an average of 1,077 ballots cast in the election."

    Under this system, Democratic Gov. Jared Polis, who won the 2018 election by double digits, would have received 181 electoral votes to the 263 earned by his Republican opponent, Walker Stapleton. "Lopez's weighting system would have given the 2,013 combined voters in Hinsdale, Kiowa and Mineral counties a total of 33 electoral votes, more than double the 14 electoral votes of Denver, Arapahoe and Adams counties' combined 761,873 voters," said the report.

    This plan would almost certainly be unconstitutional under the Supreme Court's landmark 1964 ruling in Reynolds v. Sims, which enforced the principle of "one person, one vote" in state elections. Lopez has openly admitted his plan would not count voters equally, saying, "It's not about one-person, one-vote. It's about true representation."

    Lopez has also drawn controversy for his stance opposing abortion with no exceptions for rape and incest — while avoiding questions about his 1993 arrest for violently assaulting his then-pregnant wife…


  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,357

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    Fascinating to watch Putin-bot @GaryL disassemble itself in real-time, from matey chat about holidays to undisguised agitprop about “western elites”, in about 3 hours

    Again, one is drawn to the conclusion that Russia is not as good at the Great Cyber Game as we all supposed

    They probably just assume people in the west are as gullible as their own population while forgetting the reason they can pull the wool over the eyes of their own population is because they restrict the information flow
    I'm unsure that's the entire plan. Pro-Russia bots could come in all shapes and sizes - from the 'obvious' ones - and there are plenty of those about on t'Interwebs - to the more subtle.

    Putin's apparatus has shown a desire to divide his opponents; to force divisions between groups. That may be countries or groups within countries. So as well as the obvious Russian troll line, I would expect toe more capable of his agents to have looked at those fracture lines and widened them. And they might not play just one side, but both. For Putin, often what matters is not which side wins, but the divisions the arguments sow.

    Let's take the example of an imaginary green group who protest on the streets. On the face of it, funding such groups goes against Russia's interests, as they are a gas-n-oil economy. But they don't expect the group to win; what they expect is for the group to disrupt things, cause trouble and widen divisions. The leaders of any such group might not even know where their funding is coming from, given the somewhat nebulous donations systems. But a few thousand roubles spent funding the 'right' people in the organisation might reap rich rewards.

    It doesn't have to be green groups, either - any group that has lax systems, is nebulous but carries a loud voice would be prone to such stuff.
    The Tory party?
    Perhaps. But if that was Russian state funding to influence policy, then they've utterly failed given the Conservative government have been at the forefront of training and arming Ukraine.

    The Russian regime's relationship with Britain is odd. Their recent words make us out to be the big bad, and Litvinenko and Salisbury show that they saw us as an enemy even back then. Might it just be that because the Russian regime disliked us, rich Russians saw us as a safeish place to stash money, one who would not do a deal with the Russian regime?

    Not every Russian is pro-Putin, and the richer you were, the more connections you would have to have had. But even the Putinites might have looked for safe havens in case the regime decided they had to fall off a balcony.
    Utterly failed, aside from Brexit, culture wars, and the hollowing out of Britain's own armed forces. Oh, and reducing energy security by closing nuclear power stations, and shutting our only gas storage facility. Utterly failed. They did not even get a single Russian appointed to Parliament. Or did they?
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,258
    edited May 2022
    According to a Conservative Party candidate in Preston, sixteen-year old girls "smell buttery and creamy."

    Going well for the party at the moment, isn't it?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/may/22/tweet-on-tory-local-election-candidates-account-says-teenage-girls-smell-buttery-and-creamy
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,258
    p.s. Good morning in the UK
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,357
    Heathener said:

    According to a Conservative Party candidate in Preston, sixteen year old girls "smell buttery and creamy."

    Going well for the party at the moment, isn't it?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/may/22/tweet-on-tory-local-election-candidates-account-says-teenage-girls-smell-buttery-and-creamy

    Works on a dairy farm, this girl? Conservative fascination for agriculture is not just about tractors.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,258
    edited May 2022
    Leon said:


    Again, one is drawn to the conclusion that Russia is not as good at the Great Cyber Game as we all supposed

    Indeed.

    To add to their catastrophic military blunderings. Ukraine is not the first example and was, you may recall, a reason why I didn't believe they would invade in the first place.

    Football supporters would doubtless be chanting, 'You don't know what you're doing'.

    Putin is rubbish. A little man who was best suited to clandestine poisonings, and even then they cocked half of them up. A great leader he is not.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,328
    Andy_JS said:

    The UnHerd piece I posted earlier is one of the best essays I've read for many months. [The one slightly silly thing in it was the bit about "evidence based medicine" which caused someone below to say they weren't going to read any more of it].

    Tried it but I found it a bit waffley and protracted, to be honest; it had too many tangential philosophical references that broke its flow and weakened its point/s.

    Maybe it needs rewriting?
  • Options
    darkagedarkage Posts: 4,796

    darkage said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    Fascinating to watch Putin-bot @GaryL disassemble itself in real-time, from matey chat about holidays to undisguised agitprop about “western elites”, in about 3 hours

    Again, one is drawn to the conclusion that Russia is not as good at the Great Cyber Game as we all supposed

    They probably just assume people in the west are as gullible as their own population while forgetting the reason they can pull the wool over the eyes of their own population is because they restrict the information flow
    I'm unsure that's the entire plan. Pro-Russia bots could come in all shapes and sizes - from the 'obvious' ones - and there are plenty of those about on t'Interwebs - to the more subtle.

    Putin's apparatus has shown a desire to divide his opponents; to force divisions between groups. That may be countries or groups within countries. So as well as the obvious Russian troll line, I would expect toe more capable of his agents to have looked at those fracture lines and widened them. And they might not play just one side, but both. For Putin, often what matters is not which side wins, but the divisions the arguments sow.

    Let's take the example of an imaginary green group who protest on the streets. On the face of it, funding such groups goes against Russia's interests, as they are a gas-n-oil economy. But they don't expect the group to win; what they expect is for the group to disrupt things, cause trouble and widen divisions. The leaders of any such group might not even know where their funding is coming from, given the somewhat nebulous donations systems. But a few thousand roubles spent funding the 'right' people in the organisation might reap rich rewards.

    It doesn't have to be green groups, either - any group that has lax systems, is nebulous but carries a loud voice would be prone to such stuff.
    Yes, I have to admit though, that it is very clever. It turns the notion of 'debate' in to a sham; because any political debate can be easily corrupted by malicious actors due to the essentially unlimited freedom to broadcast. The effective lack of regulation means that entire pillars of civilisation are very weak, you only need to plant a few seeds to take down the whole thing - people will happily, innocently, unknowingly and sincerely do your work for you.
    Just in case anyone thinks I've taken an anti-green stance with that post, I'd point out two other areas that Russia may have wanted to 'provoke' debate - the right-wing nutters in the US and their counterparts, the left-wing nutters. The more those two sides screech at each other, the more the chasm between them grows, the weaker America becomes.

    It might not just be Russia either.

    And (whispers quietly); I would not be surprised if we did the same, on a smaller scale. Although the more controlled media of our likely opponents makes it harder to do.
    Of course... propoganda and psych-ops have been done forever, by all sides. Putin and Russia were just far ahead of the game with regard to the opportunities posed by social media, from circa 2010 onwards.

    One thing that you can see, even somewhere like PB, is a lot more sympathy over recent years towards towards the extreme left, than the extreme right. The result is that people underestimate the threat posed by the former.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,990

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    Fascinating to watch Putin-bot @GaryL disassemble itself in real-time, from matey chat about holidays to undisguised agitprop about “western elites”, in about 3 hours

    Again, one is drawn to the conclusion that Russia is not as good at the Great Cyber Game as we all supposed

    They probably just assume people in the west are as gullible as their own population while forgetting the reason they can pull the wool over the eyes of their own population is because they restrict the information flow
    I'm unsure that's the entire plan. Pro-Russia bots could come in all shapes and sizes - from the 'obvious' ones - and there are plenty of those about on t'Interwebs - to the more subtle.

    Putin's apparatus has shown a desire to divide his opponents; to force divisions between groups. That may be countries or groups within countries. So as well as the obvious Russian troll line, I would expect toe more capable of his agents to have looked at those fracture lines and widened them. And they might not play just one side, but both. For Putin, often what matters is not which side wins, but the divisions the arguments sow.

    Let's take the example of an imaginary green group who protest on the streets. On the face of it, funding such groups goes against Russia's interests, as they are a gas-n-oil economy. But they don't expect the group to win; what they expect is for the group to disrupt things, cause trouble and widen divisions. The leaders of any such group might not even know where their funding is coming from, given the somewhat nebulous donations systems. But a few thousand roubles spent funding the 'right' people in the organisation might reap rich rewards.

    It doesn't have to be green groups, either - any group that has lax systems, is nebulous but carries a loud voice would be prone to such stuff.
    The Tory party?
    Perhaps. But if that was Russian state funding to influence policy, then they've utterly failed given the Conservative government have been at the forefront of training and arming Ukraine.

    The Russian regime's relationship with Britain is odd. Their recent words make us out to be the big bad, and Litvinenko and Salisbury show that they saw us as an enemy even back then. Might it just be that because the Russian regime disliked us, rich Russians saw us as a safeish place to stash money, one who would not do a deal with the Russian regime?

    Not every Russian is pro-Putin, and the richer you were, the more connections you would have to have had. But even the Putinites might have looked for safe havens in case the regime decided they had to fall off a balcony.
    Utterly failed, aside from Brexit, culture wars, and the hollowing out of Britain's own armed forces. Oh, and reducing energy security by closing nuclear power stations, and shutting our only gas storage facility. Utterly failed. They did not even get a single Russian appointed to Parliament. Or did they?
    And that's all bullshit. You can't just look at things you think are wrong and ascribe them all to Russian malevolence.

    And that's another nasty aspect to this: just the concept that this might happen leads some to ascribe anything that happens to Russia. This alone strengthens Russia.

    Arguments everywhere, with few people actually willing to change their entrenched views, even if those views are a hairs' breadth away from those they are arguing with.

    But that's enough about PB.... ;)
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,844

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    Fascinating to watch Putin-bot @GaryL disassemble itself in real-time, from matey chat about holidays to undisguised agitprop about “western elites”, in about 3 hours

    Again, one is drawn to the conclusion that Russia is not as good at the Great Cyber Game as we all supposed

    They probably just assume people in the west are as gullible as their own population while forgetting the reason they can pull the wool over the eyes of their own population is because they restrict the information flow
    I'm unsure that's the entire plan. Pro-Russia bots could come in all shapes and sizes - from the 'obvious' ones - and there are plenty of those about on t'Interwebs - to the more subtle.

    Putin's apparatus has shown a desire to divide his opponents; to force divisions between groups. That may be countries or groups within countries. So as well as the obvious Russian troll line, I would expect toe more capable of his agents to have looked at those fracture lines and widened them. And they might not play just one side, but both. For Putin, often what matters is not which side wins, but the divisions the arguments sow.

    Let's take the example of an imaginary green group who protest on the streets. On the face of it, funding such groups goes against Russia's interests, as they are a gas-n-oil economy. But they don't expect the group to win; what they expect is for the group to disrupt things, cause trouble and widen divisions. The leaders of any such group might not even know where their funding is coming from, given the somewhat nebulous donations systems. But a few thousand roubles spent funding the 'right' people in the organisation might reap rich rewards.

    It doesn't have to be green groups, either - any group that has lax systems, is nebulous but carries a loud voice would be prone to such stuff.
    I meant such statements such as the only way to stop the deaths is for ukraine to give in when we know all that will stop is russian deaths as they came prepared with 45k body bags and death lists at a time when they expected to roll over ukraine in a week.

    We all can see how much of a paper tiger the russian military is from the last couple of months of fighting and I don't doubt that russia is making progress in Donbass right now....however my suspicion is to do so they are throwing everything they have at it to try and actually get some progress to show....that can only go on so long however.

    I expect the ukranians to withdraw slowly letting the russians expend their energy then counter attack when they are exhausted
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: Hamilton and Russell around 20 or under for the title. I backed both ahead of practice in Miami then hedged after second practice, so I'm flat (or ahead of they win) so not tempted by this now.

    The DNFs of Leclerc and Verstappen are helpful, but the window of opportunity for Mercedes is closing.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,357
    edited May 2022

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    Fascinating to watch Putin-bot @GaryL disassemble itself in real-time, from matey chat about holidays to undisguised agitprop about “western elites”, in about 3 hours

    Again, one is drawn to the conclusion that Russia is not as good at the Great Cyber Game as we all supposed

    They probably just assume people in the west are as gullible as their own population while forgetting the reason they can pull the wool over the eyes of their own population is because they restrict the information flow
    I'm unsure that's the entire plan. Pro-Russia bots could come in all shapes and sizes - from the 'obvious' ones - and there are plenty of those about on t'Interwebs - to the more subtle.

    Putin's apparatus has shown a desire to divide his opponents; to force divisions between groups. That may be countries or groups within countries. So as well as the obvious Russian troll line, I would expect toe more capable of his agents to have looked at those fracture lines and widened them. And they might not play just one side, but both. For Putin, often what matters is not which side wins, but the divisions the arguments sow.

    Let's take the example of an imaginary green group who protest on the streets. On the face of it, funding such groups goes against Russia's interests, as they are a gas-n-oil economy. But they don't expect the group to win; what they expect is for the group to disrupt things, cause trouble and widen divisions. The leaders of any such group might not even know where their funding is coming from, given the somewhat nebulous donations systems. But a few thousand roubles spent funding the 'right' people in the organisation might reap rich rewards.

    It doesn't have to be green groups, either - any group that has lax systems, is nebulous but carries a loud voice would be prone to such stuff.
    The Tory party?
    Perhaps. But if that was Russian state funding to influence policy, then they've utterly failed given the Conservative government have been at the forefront of training and arming Ukraine.

    The Russian regime's relationship with Britain is odd. Their recent words make us out to be the big bad, and Litvinenko and Salisbury show that they saw us as an enemy even back then. Might it just be that because the Russian regime disliked us, rich Russians saw us as a safeish place to stash money, one who would not do a deal with the Russian regime?

    Not every Russian is pro-Putin, and the richer you were, the more connections you would have to have had. But even the Putinites might have looked for safe havens in case the regime decided they had to fall off a balcony.
    Utterly failed, aside from Brexit, culture wars, and the hollowing out of Britain's own armed forces. Oh, and reducing energy security by closing nuclear power stations, and shutting our only gas storage facility. Utterly failed. They did not even get a single Russian appointed to Parliament. Or did they?
    And that's all bullshit. You can't just look at things you think are wrong and ascribe them all to Russian malevolence.

    And that's another nasty aspect to this: just the concept that this might happen leads some to ascribe anything that happens to Russia. This alone strengthens Russia.

    Arguments everywhere, with few people actually willing to change their entrenched views, even if those views are a hairs' breadth away from those they are arguing with.

    But that's enough about PB.... ;)
    You think the government did these things that are in Russia's interest despite, not because of, Russian funding? Well then, I suppose you are right and the Russians were wasting their money if it all would have happened anyway.
  • Options
    BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,219
    Just heard Jesse Norman on Today talking about oil companies "dividending" money to their shareholders. I've never heard that verbed before.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    Nigelb said:

    Here’s more ‘settled law’ the Republicans seem to be thinking about challenging.

    "U.S. Supreme Court majority opinion (5–4) led by Chief Justice Earl Warren in Reynolds v. Sims (1964) ruled that state legislatures, unlike the U.S. Congress, needed to have representation in both houses that was based on districts containing roughly equal populations, with redistricting as needed after censuses."

    This nut is very unlikely to get elected, but he might be the Republican nominee.
    https://coloradosun.com/2022/04/09/greg-lopez-heidi-ganahl-colorado-governer-primary-gop/

    Colorado GOP candidate wants to eliminate statewide popular vote so Republicans can win more races
    https://www.salon.com/2022/05/19/colorado-candidate-wants-to-eliminate-statewide-popular-vote-so-can-win-more-races_partner/

    Under Lopez's plan, each county would get between three and eleven electoral votes, depending not on their population, but on their voter turnout rate. As 9NEWS noted, "Colorado's rural, conservative counties had seven of the 10 highest voter turnout percentages in the 2018 race for governor. Those counties had an average of 1,077 ballots cast in the election."

    Under this system, Democratic Gov. Jared Polis, who won the 2018 election by double digits, would have received 181 electoral votes to the 263 earned by his Republican opponent, Walker Stapleton. "Lopez's weighting system would have given the 2,013 combined voters in Hinsdale, Kiowa and Mineral counties a total of 33 electoral votes, more than double the 14 electoral votes of Denver, Arapahoe and Adams counties' combined 761,873 voters," said the report.

    This plan would almost certainly be unconstitutional under the Supreme Court's landmark 1964 ruling in Reynolds v. Sims, which enforced the principle of "one person, one vote" in state elections. Lopez has openly admitted his plan would not count voters equally, saying, "It's not about one-person, one-vote. It's about true representation."

    Lopez has also drawn controversy for his stance opposing abortion with no exceptions for rape and incest — while avoiding questions about his 1993 arrest for violently assaulting his then-pregnant wife…


    The United States of America - the land of the gerrymander
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,990
    darkage said:

    darkage said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    Fascinating to watch Putin-bot @GaryL disassemble itself in real-time, from matey chat about holidays to undisguised agitprop about “western elites”, in about 3 hours

    Again, one is drawn to the conclusion that Russia is not as good at the Great Cyber Game as we all supposed

    They probably just assume people in the west are as gullible as their own population while forgetting the reason they can pull the wool over the eyes of their own population is because they restrict the information flow
    I'm unsure that's the entire plan. Pro-Russia bots could come in all shapes and sizes - from the 'obvious' ones - and there are plenty of those about on t'Interwebs - to the more subtle.

    Putin's apparatus has shown a desire to divide his opponents; to force divisions between groups. That may be countries or groups within countries. So as well as the obvious Russian troll line, I would expect toe more capable of his agents to have looked at those fracture lines and widened them. And they might not play just one side, but both. For Putin, often what matters is not which side wins, but the divisions the arguments sow.

    Let's take the example of an imaginary green group who protest on the streets. On the face of it, funding such groups goes against Russia's interests, as they are a gas-n-oil economy. But they don't expect the group to win; what they expect is for the group to disrupt things, cause trouble and widen divisions. The leaders of any such group might not even know where their funding is coming from, given the somewhat nebulous donations systems. But a few thousand roubles spent funding the 'right' people in the organisation might reap rich rewards.

    It doesn't have to be green groups, either - any group that has lax systems, is nebulous but carries a loud voice would be prone to such stuff.
    Yes, I have to admit though, that it is very clever. It turns the notion of 'debate' in to a sham; because any political debate can be easily corrupted by malicious actors due to the essentially unlimited freedom to broadcast. The effective lack of regulation means that entire pillars of civilisation are very weak, you only need to plant a few seeds to take down the whole thing - people will happily, innocently, unknowingly and sincerely do your work for you.
    Just in case anyone thinks I've taken an anti-green stance with that post, I'd point out two other areas that Russia may have wanted to 'provoke' debate - the right-wing nutters in the US and their counterparts, the left-wing nutters. The more those two sides screech at each other, the more the chasm between them grows, the weaker America becomes.

    It might not just be Russia either.

    And (whispers quietly); I would not be surprised if we did the same, on a smaller scale. Although the more controlled media of our likely opponents makes it harder to do.
    Of course... propoganda and psych-ops have been done forever, by all sides. Putin and Russia were just far ahead of the game with regard to the opportunities posed by social media, from circa 2010 onwards.

    One thing that you can see, even somewhere like PB, is a lot more sympathy over recent years towards towards the extreme left, than the extreme right. The result is that people underestimate the threat posed by the former.
    I don't see much sympathy towards the 'extreme left' on here. There were few outright supporters of Corbyn on here, and probably only one remaining. Likewise, there isn't much support for the 'extreme right' on here - I can't think of a single regular poster who comes across as anything like fascist.

    But there are issues. Take me: I'm generally pro-trans and pro-choice. I'm willing to pay more taxes if required (well, Mrs J is... ;) ), and I firmly believe in a welfare safety net. These might be seen as 'left' issues.

    But I'm also a firm believer in having a strong, flexible military, in the nuclear deterrent, in a country generally balancing its books, and in people who work hard gaining from that work. These might be seen as 'right' issues.

    I'm generally in favour of better public transport, of renewable energy (of the right sorts...), of recycling, of reducing waste - which could all be seen as 'green' issues.

    The thing is, both Labour- and Conservative-supporting posters can look at those issues and see the way their party backs these, and their opponents do not.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,375
    glw said:

    GaryL said:

    glw said:

    GaryL said:

    glw said:

    GaryL said:

    Point is sensible leaders in the west realise this war is going nowhere and costing thousands of lives

    Bollocks do they. Sensible leaders realise that Ukraine has the resolve to fight Russia indefinitely if they armed to do so. But can Russia keep going? Probably not, they will have to escalate or fold. And I suspect that the number of Russian military leaders confident of their ability to wage a greater war is declining by the day. Hell, even Putin probably realises he's fucked it up.
    So why the sounds of compromise from the west tonite you don't do that if you are winning
    Ukraine is unwilling to cede territory. The Russian military needs to bleed, burn, and the survivors go home. America will provide the means to do that.
    How long would that take,, months , years, never meanwhile the developing world starves and the western economies crash
    I'm confident the West can afford to arm Ukraine to fight Russia indefinitely. Russia's problems are only beginning.
    The entire Russian defence budget is a rounding error in the Pentagon. There is also enthusiastic backing from all sides in Congress for spending lots of money on a stimulus package for the American arms industry.
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,844

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    Fascinating to watch Putin-bot @GaryL disassemble itself in real-time, from matey chat about holidays to undisguised agitprop about “western elites”, in about 3 hours

    Again, one is drawn to the conclusion that Russia is not as good at the Great Cyber Game as we all supposed

    They probably just assume people in the west are as gullible as their own population while forgetting the reason they can pull the wool over the eyes of their own population is because they restrict the information flow
    I'm unsure that's the entire plan. Pro-Russia bots could come in all shapes and sizes - from the 'obvious' ones - and there are plenty of those about on t'Interwebs - to the more subtle.

    Putin's apparatus has shown a desire to divide his opponents; to force divisions between groups. That may be countries or groups within countries. So as well as the obvious Russian troll line, I would expect toe more capable of his agents to have looked at those fracture lines and widened them. And they might not play just one side, but both. For Putin, often what matters is not which side wins, but the divisions the arguments sow.

    Let's take the example of an imaginary green group who protest on the streets. On the face of it, funding such groups goes against Russia's interests, as they are a gas-n-oil economy. But they don't expect the group to win; what they expect is for the group to disrupt things, cause trouble and widen divisions. The leaders of any such group might not even know where their funding is coming from, given the somewhat nebulous donations systems. But a few thousand roubles spent funding the 'right' people in the organisation might reap rich rewards.

    It doesn't have to be green groups, either - any group that has lax systems, is nebulous but carries a loud voice would be prone to such stuff.
    The Tory party?
    Perhaps. But if that was Russian state funding to influence policy, then they've utterly failed given the Conservative government have been at the forefront of training and arming Ukraine.

    The Russian regime's relationship with Britain is odd. Their recent words make us out to be the big bad, and Litvinenko and Salisbury show that they saw us as an enemy even back then. Might it just be that because the Russian regime disliked us, rich Russians saw us as a safeish place to stash money, one who would not do a deal with the Russian regime?

    Not every Russian is pro-Putin, and the richer you were, the more connections you would have to have had. But even the Putinites might have looked for safe havens in case the regime decided they had to fall off a balcony.
    Utterly failed, aside from Brexit, culture wars, and the hollowing out of Britain's own armed forces. Oh, and reducing energy security by closing nuclear power stations, and shutting our only gas storage facility. Utterly failed. They did not even get a single Russian appointed to Parliament. Or did they?
    And that's all bullshit. You can't just look at things you think are wrong and ascribe them all to Russian malevolence.

    And that's another nasty aspect to this: just the concept that this might happen leads some to ascribe anything that happens to Russia. This alone strengthens Russia.

    Arguments everywhere, with few people actually willing to change their entrenched views, even if those views are a hairs' breadth away from those they are arguing with.

    But that's enough about PB.... ;)
    You think the government did these things that are in Russia's interest despite, not because of, Russian funding? Well then, I suppose you are right and the Russians were wasting their money if it all would have happened anyway.
    We often do things that the french, germans or dutch would feel is in there interest as well. This just means that we did it because we felt it was in our interests to do so and coincidentally its also in the interests of others we do so.

    Now that is not to claim there is no russian influence merely to say that sometimes whats in our interest putin also believes to be in his and we can't just assume therefore influence was bought and paid for. For example shutting our gas storage while it was stupid to do so in hindsight there were under the conditions prevailing when it was closed that it was money taxpayers didn't need to spend.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,990

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    Fascinating to watch Putin-bot @GaryL disassemble itself in real-time, from matey chat about holidays to undisguised agitprop about “western elites”, in about 3 hours

    Again, one is drawn to the conclusion that Russia is not as good at the Great Cyber Game as we all supposed

    They probably just assume people in the west are as gullible as their own population while forgetting the reason they can pull the wool over the eyes of their own population is because they restrict the information flow
    I'm unsure that's the entire plan. Pro-Russia bots could come in all shapes and sizes - from the 'obvious' ones - and there are plenty of those about on t'Interwebs - to the more subtle.

    Putin's apparatus has shown a desire to divide his opponents; to force divisions between groups. That may be countries or groups within countries. So as well as the obvious Russian troll line, I would expect toe more capable of his agents to have looked at those fracture lines and widened them. And they might not play just one side, but both. For Putin, often what matters is not which side wins, but the divisions the arguments sow.

    Let's take the example of an imaginary green group who protest on the streets. On the face of it, funding such groups goes against Russia's interests, as they are a gas-n-oil economy. But they don't expect the group to win; what they expect is for the group to disrupt things, cause trouble and widen divisions. The leaders of any such group might not even know where their funding is coming from, given the somewhat nebulous donations systems. But a few thousand roubles spent funding the 'right' people in the organisation might reap rich rewards.

    It doesn't have to be green groups, either - any group that has lax systems, is nebulous but carries a loud voice would be prone to such stuff.
    The Tory party?
    Perhaps. But if that was Russian state funding to influence policy, then they've utterly failed given the Conservative government have been at the forefront of training and arming Ukraine.

    The Russian regime's relationship with Britain is odd. Their recent words make us out to be the big bad, and Litvinenko and Salisbury show that they saw us as an enemy even back then. Might it just be that because the Russian regime disliked us, rich Russians saw us as a safeish place to stash money, one who would not do a deal with the Russian regime?

    Not every Russian is pro-Putin, and the richer you were, the more connections you would have to have had. But even the Putinites might have looked for safe havens in case the regime decided they had to fall off a balcony.
    Utterly failed, aside from Brexit, culture wars, and the hollowing out of Britain's own armed forces. Oh, and reducing energy security by closing nuclear power stations, and shutting our only gas storage facility. Utterly failed. They did not even get a single Russian appointed to Parliament. Or did they?
    And that's all bullshit. You can't just look at things you think are wrong and ascribe them all to Russian malevolence.

    And that's another nasty aspect to this: just the concept that this might happen leads some to ascribe anything that happens to Russia. This alone strengthens Russia.

    Arguments everywhere, with few people actually willing to change their entrenched views, even if those views are a hairs' breadth away from those they are arguing with.

    But that's enough about PB.... ;)
    You think the government did these things that are in Russia's interest despite, not because of, Russian funding? Well then, I suppose you are right and the Russians were wasting their money if it all would have happened anyway.
    Oh come on. Here's a link you might find useful:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PS8dNzRhMgk

    Look at it another way: you are essentially saying that the government as no agency; it does just what the Russians want. The meta events of the last ten years say the opposite, although perhaps the biggest case for it would be Brexit.

    But look at the areas where government policy has gone away from Russia's interests at a large scale: we led in sanctions against Russia. We have gone for a more distributed energy policy, including moving away from gas and oil, etc, etc.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,357
    The NHS should allow consultants to work from home and train clerical staff to conduct cancer scans
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/call-for-wfh-medical-consultants-wkghhxjnh (£££)
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,258
    edited May 2022

    darkage said:

    darkage said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    Fascinating to watch Putin-bot @GaryL disassemble itself in real-time, from matey chat about holidays to undisguised agitprop about “western elites”, in about 3 hours

    Again, one is drawn to the conclusion that Russia is not as good at the Great Cyber Game as we all supposed

    They probably just assume people in the west are as gullible as their own population while forgetting the reason they can pull the wool over the eyes of their own population is because they restrict the information flow
    I'm unsure that's the entire plan. Pro-Russia bots could come in all shapes and sizes - from the 'obvious' ones - and there are plenty of those about on t'Interwebs - to the more subtle.

    Putin's apparatus has shown a desire to divide his opponents; to force divisions between groups. That may be countries or groups within countries. So as well as the obvious Russian troll line, I would expect toe more capable of his agents to have looked at those fracture lines and widened them. And they might not play just one side, but both. For Putin, often what matters is not which side wins, but the divisions the arguments sow.

    Let's take the example of an imaginary green group who protest on the streets. On the face of it, funding such groups goes against Russia's interests, as they are a gas-n-oil economy. But they don't expect the group to win; what they expect is for the group to disrupt things, cause trouble and widen divisions. The leaders of any such group might not even know where their funding is coming from, given the somewhat nebulous donations systems. But a few thousand roubles spent funding the 'right' people in the organisation might reap rich rewards.

    It doesn't have to be green groups, either - any group that has lax systems, is nebulous but carries a loud voice would be prone to such stuff.
    Yes, I have to admit though, that it is very clever. It turns the notion of 'debate' in to a sham; because any political debate can be easily corrupted by malicious actors due to the essentially unlimited freedom to broadcast. The effective lack of regulation means that entire pillars of civilisation are very weak, you only need to plant a few seeds to take down the whole thing - people will happily, innocently, unknowingly and sincerely do your work for you.
    Just in case anyone thinks I've taken an anti-green stance with that post, I'd point out two other areas that Russia may have wanted to 'provoke' debate - the right-wing nutters in the US and their counterparts, the left-wing nutters. The more those two sides screech at each other, the more the chasm between them grows, the weaker America becomes.

    It might not just be Russia either.

    And (whispers quietly); I would not be surprised if we did the same, on a smaller scale. Although the more controlled media of our likely opponents makes it harder to do.
    Of course... propoganda and psych-ops have been done forever, by all sides. Putin and Russia were just far ahead of the game with regard to the opportunities posed by social media, from circa 2010 onwards.

    One thing that you can see, even somewhere like PB, is a lot more sympathy over recent years towards towards the extreme left, than the extreme right. The result is that people underestimate the threat posed by the former.
    I don't see much sympathy towards the 'extreme left' on here.
    Crikey: nor do I !!!

    The Right at the moment have FAR more of a voice amongst pb posters, only counter-balanced by:

    1. Mike Smithson himself

    and

    2. Many Conservative supporters having the good grace and honesty to critique this buffoon in No. 10

    Generally most left-of-centre viewpoints get a lot of opprobrium

    Personally I think Jeremy Corbyn was a vile man. Without doubt an Anti-Semite, and a misogynist, who took his distaste for this country into the extremes of supporting those hell-bent on evil, including terrorists. He crossed a line of acceptability and some.

    However, I did like a few of his radical ideas. If they hadn't been cloaked in Jew-hating more people might have listened. It's quite ironic that the Conservatives even adopted some of them.

    He was as nasty a piece of work as most tory Brexiteers are imho, with the exception of Steve Baker who genuinely seems to think he's serving God.

    I think it's possible to be Radical and alternative without falling into that kind of Left-wing nastiness which mirrors its opposite on the Right.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,568

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: Hamilton and Russell around 20 or under for the title. I backed both ahead of practice in Miami then hedged after second practice, so I'm flat (or ahead of they win) so not tempted by this now.

    The DNFs of Leclerc and Verstappen are helpful, but the window of opportunity for Mercedes is closing.

    40/1 might be interesting.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,909
    EXC: Jacob Rees-Mogg accused of working a ‘four day week' - despite lecturing staff about WFH and getting back to the office https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/tory-jacob-rees-mogg-accused-27033941?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Jacob Rees-Mogg accused of working a ‘four day week' - despite lecturing staff about WFH and getting back to the office https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/tory-jacob-rees-mogg-accused-27033941?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar

    I presume he’s flying to Dublin to manage his investment fund in person
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