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LAB lead up 7 point in 2 weeks with YouGov – politicalbetting.com

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  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802
    Foxy said:

    GaryL said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Ministers fear ‘biggest rail strike in modern history’
    Freight could be prioritised over passengers to counter food and petrol shortages

    Fears are growing that union action on the railways billed as the biggest in modern history will bring the UK to a standstill, with empty shelves and petrol pumps running dry. Plans are being drawn up for freight trains to take priority over passenger services to keep supermarket shelves stocked...

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ministers-fear-biggest-rail-strike-in-modern-history-509fzzzlp

    Good on the RMT. Fight for the workers. Why not maximise their leverage to get a fair deal.

    In a low inflationary environment low wage increases are tolerable but not in the current environment and cutting the numbers of skilled professionals involved in track maintenance is a battle worth fighting for
    Ah, you mean the RMT, who has as deputy assistant general secretary Eddie Dempsey, who is well-known as a supporter of liberalism and democracy?

    I'm sorry, but as long as he's in position I see any current RMT action as support for Russia.

    (dons his flameproof coat)
    This RMT

    The RMT Union president who is threatening to bring Britain's railways to a standstill this summer is a Putin apologist and senior member of the Communist Party backing pro-Russian separatists

    A union baron plotting a summer of rail chaos is a senior member of the Communist Party who has backed pro-Russian separatists in the Ukraine. Alex Gordon, president of the RMT union, is a longstanding Marxist who has previously echoed the Kremlin’s propaganda by branding Ukraine ‘a failed state held to ransom by neo-Nazis’.

    Following Moscow’s invasion of Crimea, the militant former train driver protested outside Ukraine’s embassy in London in 2015 while wearing the black and orange Ribbon of St George, a symbol of Russian military valour.

    It comes as the RMT threatens to bring Britain to a standstill with the biggest rail strike in modern history. More than 40,000 staff are being balloted on industrial action in a row over pay and jobs. If members back the move, millions of passengers will endure rail misery as early as next month.

    Alex Gordon, president of the RMT union, is a longstanding Marxist who has previously echoed the Kremlin’s propaganda by branding Ukraine ‘a failed state held to ransom by neo-Nazis’

    Already Britain’s most militant union, the RMT has veered even further Left over the past year, rail industry sources say. ‘We could never understand why the RMT is calling strike ballots when the railway is on life support and before there have even been any proper talks,’ one senior source said. ‘Communists and Putin sympathisers have taken over key jobs in the union leadership. They are trying to drag ordinary rail workers into a confrontation which would deeply damage everyone working on the railway.’

    Mr Gordon presides over the RMT’s ruling national executive committee. But he is also a major figure in the Communist Party of Britain, sitting on both its executive and political committees. The 55-year-old is also chairman of the Marx Memorial Library in North London, where Communist dictator Vladimir Lenin worked during his exile from Russia.

    It comes as the RMT threatens to bring Britain to a standstill with the biggest rail strike in modern history. More than 40,000 staff are being balloted on industrial action in a row over pay and jobs
    This strike could be very easily stopped, assuming they win the ballot and I think they will, by the operating companies and network rail coming to their senses and making a fair and reasonable offer.
    I understand the Scottish Government offered 2.2% is that fair and if not how much would you suggest

    https://www.insider.co.uk/news/scotrail-train-drivers-balloted-industrial-26942279
    The RMT very generously previously agreed a below inflation raise. So, now, they need at least inflation.

    2.2% is a substantial pay cut.
    Are you seriously suggesting a 9 % pay rise and if so are you also agreeing nurses, doctors, pensioners and benefits also be raised by 9 %
    Nurses, doctors, train drivers, teachers... they cost what they cost. This is Market Economics Lesson One. The government (as a monopoly employer... a monopsony? in many cases) has the power to hold down salaries in many of these sectors, and it has used that pretty effectively. But that power is not enough to cope with an effective 8 % pay cut.

    So the government has a fairly rubbish choice in this situation. Either it can pay these people more, or it will struggle to recruit. I don't know what it's like in the NHS, but the situation in schools is already pretty grisly.
    I've already mentioned that the NHS is having an Open Day at Blyth job centre on Monday.
    They can't fill admin, porters and maintenance roles.
    We have lost half our band 2 admin and reception staff in my department this year. Being abused by the public and low pay isn't a great combination.
    Maybe try providing a better service...the horror stories i hear now out of the nhs....still its just a thought
    Yep, thats the sort of abuse our phone and reception staff get, only considerably more fruity.

    It may surprise you to know that AFC Band 2 clerks don't get a big say in how the NHS works. Until this week it was central command and control from the DoH.
    That's like people moaning at the person on the phone at Sky or BT. They don't care and they can't do anything. I think a round of firings at executive level within hospitals and trusts and NHS England would go largely unnoticed and save the nation billions which could be shoved into hiring more doctors and nurses or at least paying the ones we do have a competitive salary.
  • GaryLGaryL Posts: 131
    EPG said:

    Cameron was a lot deeper in negative polling doodoo by the time he panicked and began Brexit. It was also a little later in the parliament. This kind of small lead will just keep the frog boiling. If you are a Tory who thinks Johnson is a serial winner, nothing to worry about. If you are a Tory who thinks he is mainly good at beating the antisemitic Labour left, you might like to see a bit more get up and go from his opponents.

    Johnson is only a winner amongst the OAPS though. And those same OAPS who have got used to for them goldilocks decades of low inflation and rising asset prices will suddenly be confronted with high inflation and plunging asset prices which will be toxic for them
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,503

    HYUFD said:
    Didn't she just meet Michelle O’Neill
    Separatist covid. 😟

    I have a relative who thinks those big lumps on monkey pox little monkeys come out.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    GaryL said:

    EPG said:

    Cameron was a lot deeper in negative polling doodoo by the time he panicked and began Brexit. It was also a little later in the parliament. This kind of small lead will just keep the frog boiling. If you are a Tory who thinks Johnson is a serial winner, nothing to worry about. If you are a Tory who thinks he is mainly good at beating the antisemitic Labour left, you might like to see a bit more get up and go from his opponents.

    Johnson is only a winner amongst the OAPS though. And those same OAPS who have got used to for them goldilocks decades of low inflation and rising asset prices will suddenly be confronted with high inflation and plunging asset prices which will be toxic for them
    Why are asset prices going to plunge?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,218
    dixiedean said:

    MaxPB said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sorry; it’s 20% cuts but up to 40% in some departments.

    It's going to cut "waste" of course. And protect the frontline services. As it always does.
    Which is why you can't get to speak to anyone. Or a passport in short order. Or a driving licence.
    That would be wasteful.
    The public sector needs to embrace automation on a much bigger scale.
    Indeed.
    Which takes investment from the ownership. Most public sector workers are using IT from the dark ages.
    How often do you hear "I'm just waiting for the computer to load" from the private sector?
    That would help a lot. (The IT in most schools is similarly terrible.)

    But. There are two problems with that.

    One is about politics and headlines. Spending on IT, support staff and other things that allow doctors, nurses, teachers and so on to do their jobs better isn't politically acceptable. We'd rather have more doctors and "people on the front line" than "wasting money on the back office"- even if that would work better.

    The other is that the public sector has ended up with all the roles where it's not easy to automate much. If there were profits to be made from new ways of working, the private sector has largely swooped in to make those profits. That's fine; that's free market economics. But there is a fundamental limit to how many people a doctor can see per hour. Or the number of pupils a teacher can have in a class. Or the number of people a care worker can be expected to wash in a day.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sorry; it’s 20% cuts but up to 40% in some departments.

    It's going to cut "waste" of course. And protect the frontline services. As it always does.
    Which is why you can't get to speak to anyone. Or a passport in short order. Or a driving licence.
    That would be wasteful.
    I don't think think the DVLA staff or Passport Office count in the Civil Service numbers. Aren't they QANGOs?
    No, they're still civil servants, I'm pretty sure.
    Yes, I think @dixiedean is right. If they get a 20% headcount cut then It is hard to see service improving. I see the Passport Office are hiring 700 contractors to help. That isn't going to help costs, just replaces a pisspoor service with a pisspoor privatised one.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    GaryL said:

    EPG said:

    Cameron was a lot deeper in negative polling doodoo by the time he panicked and began Brexit. It was also a little later in the parliament. This kind of small lead will just keep the frog boiling. If you are a Tory who thinks Johnson is a serial winner, nothing to worry about. If you are a Tory who thinks he is mainly good at beating the antisemitic Labour left, you might like to see a bit more get up and go from his opponents.

    Johnson is only a winner amongst the OAPS though. And those same OAPS who have got used to for them goldilocks decades of low inflation and rising asset prices will suddenly be confronted with high inflation and plunging asset prices which will be toxic for them
    Can't see an asset price plunge.
    But inflation will hurt them. As will cuts. The state of the NHS is a constant source of moaning.
    And a free bus pass is of diminishing utility when there aren't any buses.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,900
    Taz said:

    Good evening from The Roxy (as was) in Sheffield. Do I blame Ukraine / the coat of living crisis for paying £6.70 for a pint...?

    Carling is expensive these days.
    Ewwww. Shipyard. At least it's ale. Have had 3. Decided on a nice round two spot
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    HYUFD said:
    Didn't she just meet Michelle O’Neill
    Separatist covid. 😟

    I have a relative who thinks those big lumps on monkey pox little monkeys come out.
    'This News Just Came Over The Radio, followed by a song about “faster horses, younger women, older whiskey and more money …”∗ and then came a news item about a Polish gentleman who was arrested earlier today for throwing “more than two dozen bowling balls into the sea off a pier in Fort Lauderdale” because, he told arresting officers, “he thought they were n****r eggs.” '

    Hunter S Thompson, FALOTCT

    seems relevant
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    GaryL said:

    EPG said:

    Cameron was a lot deeper in negative polling doodoo by the time he panicked and began Brexit. It was also a little later in the parliament. This kind of small lead will just keep the frog boiling. If you are a Tory who thinks Johnson is a serial winner, nothing to worry about. If you are a Tory who thinks he is mainly good at beating the antisemitic Labour left, you might like to see a bit more get up and go from his opponents.

    Johnson is only a winner amongst the OAPS though. And those same OAPS who have got used to for them goldilocks decades of low inflation and rising asset prices will suddenly be confronted with high inflation and plunging asset prices which will be toxic for them
    Will they? Annual house price growth to April 2022 was still 12.1%

    https://news.sky.com/story/house-prices-annual-growth-slows-in-april-amid-warning-of-taste-of-things-to-come-12601329
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    MaxPB said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sorry; it’s 20% cuts but up to 40% in some departments.

    It's going to cut "waste" of course. And protect the frontline services. As it always does.
    Which is why you can't get to speak to anyone. Or a passport in short order. Or a driving licence.
    That would be wasteful.
    The public sector needs to embrace automation on a much bigger scale.
    Yep, and they need to start measuring outputs rather than inputs. Tie pay rises to productivity gains and headcount reductions.

    Most CS departments could lose a whole couple of layers of management, without too much effect on the work being done.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Applicant said:

    Another way of looking at that YouGov poll:

    58% Labour-led coalition parties
    35% Right wing parties
    6% UK wreckers
    1% Others

    So the parties which it could be reasonably assumed would be willing to participate in a Labour-led coalition, that's Labour, the LDs and Greens, are 23% ahead of the Right.

    Yes, keep talking like the LDs are just an adjunct to Labour and see how that works for you.
    Try looking at the polling detail before commenting on polls. When the current LD voters were asked to choose between Starmer and Johnson over who would make Best PM, they divided for Starmer in a ratio of 3.5 to 1. The LDs can't look to prop up the Conservatives again when their voters are so starkly leaning in the other direction.
    I would question the 3.5 ratio.

    I would question it in terms of not being consistent across the country, in parts of remania I would say it’s a lot higher than that.

    The thing with libdems, they are a patchy national party, so many Tory v lab fights they don’t really exist in, but in the tactical voting years when Tory’s unpopular they could snatch safe Tory seats from Tory’s even without tactical voting by virtue of not being labour. That’s what built a golden wall the Tory’s had to knock down.

    I think Remania is actually a growing political factor since we’ve had Boris Brexit, not a shrinking one.
    But, it still shows the LibDems' problem.

    1:3.5 is about 30 percent.

    So, for every 10 LibDem voters, 3 are pissed off if they support Starmer and 7 if they support Johnson.

    The LibDems are probably better off maintaining an arms length separation from whoever runs a minority administration after GE2024.
    Just to repeat what I said, because you obviously not listening.

    It’s not a consistent happy or pissed off ratio across all the nations regions and constituencies, in Remania, where it could actually make a difference in seats, it’s no where near that ratio. In my opinion how this works
    Most of Remainia is already held by Labour (e.g. London, the university seats).

    Now sure, you can point to some Remainia seats like Wimbledon that the LibDems can hope to take.

    But, the pickings are small.

    And the LibDems also have to retain seats like Shropshire N and Hom & Tiv (assuming it falls next month) which are 60 per cent Leave.

    I think the LibDems will be lucky to get +10 seats from Remainia in GE2024.

    We now go over to @rcs1000 for an even more pessimistic assessment.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,503
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sorry; it’s 20% cuts but up to 40% in some departments.

    It's going to cut "waste" of course. And protect the frontline services. As it always does.
    Which is why you can't get to speak to anyone. Or a passport in short order. Or a driving licence.
    That would be wasteful.
    I don't think think the DVLA staff or Passport Office count in the Civil Service numbers. Aren't they QANGOs?
    No, they're still civil servants, I'm pretty sure.
    Yes, I think @dixiedean is right. If they get a 20% headcount cut then It is hard to see service improving. I see the Passport Office are hiring 700 contractors to help. That isn't going to help costs, just replaces a pisspoor service with a pisspoor privatised one.
    Okay. I’ll explain how it works. Cutting headcount, Bringing in contractors only where needed works because you don’t have the costs of a headcount on a contract, like pension commitment, sick leave etc. it works economically as a saving in that bigger biggest long longest picture you need to look at.

    It’s also why, if any Tory’s, government spokesman, posters on here say “these cuts can help with cost of living crisis” I know where there’s a lot of sheepshit, I will bag it up and throw it at them.

    Maybe someone ought to ask these questions of the Tories, how much is the scheme actually costing the government and country in the short and medium term, when exactly does it actually free up any money for cost of living crisis? when we the tax payers get money back from from the removal of 20% of government pen pushers? Do they in fact get a nice early retirement package and nice pension - VERS my girlfriend called it when she was calculating them? Are the aged over 50 Civil Servants actually rubbing their hands with glee at the governments news, when it’s more interest right now for the country to keep them working, both paying taxes and sharing their knowledge?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    A bit casual...

    #Ukraine: The famous Ukrainian Journalist Yuriy Butusov says that he and Ukrainian soldiers, while on reconnaissance, stole a Russian BMP-1 from a Captain Dmitry Furdui of the Russian 35th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, just 100m from enemy positions. https://t.co/4cMmAW1aNK
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401

    dixiedean said:

    MaxPB said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sorry; it’s 20% cuts but up to 40% in some departments.

    It's going to cut "waste" of course. And protect the frontline services. As it always does.
    Which is why you can't get to speak to anyone. Or a passport in short order. Or a driving licence.
    That would be wasteful.
    The public sector needs to embrace automation on a much bigger scale.
    Indeed.
    Which takes investment from the ownership. Most public sector workers are using IT from the dark ages.
    How often do you hear "I'm just waiting for the computer to load" from the private sector?
    That would help a lot. (The IT in most schools is similarly terrible.)

    But. There are two problems with that.

    One is about politics and headlines. Spending on IT, support staff and other things that allow doctors, nurses, teachers and so on to do their jobs better isn't politically acceptable. We'd rather have more doctors and "people on the front line" than "wasting money on the back office"- even if that would work better.

    The other is that the public sector has ended up with all the roles where it's not easy to automate much. If there were profits to be made from new ways of working, the private sector has largely swooped in to make those profits. That's fine; that's free market economics. But there is a fundamental limit to how many people a doctor can see per hour. Or the number of pupils a teacher can have in a class. Or the number of people a care worker can be expected to wash in a day.
    Good points. I would add. They also tend to be roles in which measuring "productivity" is devilishly difficult. So equally politically unappealing.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,503
    edited May 2022

    Applicant said:

    Another way of looking at that YouGov poll:

    58% Labour-led coalition parties
    35% Right wing parties
    6% UK wreckers
    1% Others

    So the parties which it could be reasonably assumed would be willing to participate in a Labour-led coalition, that's Labour, the LDs and Greens, are 23% ahead of the Right.

    Yes, keep talking like the LDs are just an adjunct to Labour and see how that works for you.
    Try looking at the polling detail before commenting on polls. When the current LD voters were asked to choose between Starmer and Johnson over who would make Best PM, they divided for Starmer in a ratio of 3.5 to 1. The LDs can't look to prop up the Conservatives again when their voters are so starkly leaning in the other direction.
    I would question the 3.5 ratio.

    I would question it in terms of not being consistent across the country, in parts of remania I would say it’s a lot higher than that.

    The thing with libdems, they are a patchy national party, so many Tory v lab fights they don’t really exist in, but in the tactical voting years when Tory’s unpopular they could snatch safe Tory seats from Tory’s even without tactical voting by virtue of not being labour. That’s what built a golden wall the Tory’s had to knock down.

    I think Remania is actually a growing political factor since we’ve had Boris Brexit, not a shrinking one.
    But, it still shows the LibDems' problem.

    1:3.5 is about 30 percent.

    So, for every 10 LibDem voters, 3 are pissed off if they support Starmer and 7 if they support Johnson.

    The LibDems are probably better off maintaining an arms length separation from whoever runs a minority administration after GE2024.
    Just to repeat what I said, because you obviously not listening.

    It’s not a consistent happy or pissed off ratio across all the nations regions and constituencies, in Remania, where it could actually make a difference in seats, it’s no where near that ratio. In my opinion how this works
    Most of Remainia is already held by Labour (e.g. London, the university seats).

    Now sure, you can point to some Remainia seats like Wimbledon that the LibDems can hope to take.

    But, the pickings are small.

    And the LibDems also have to retain seats like Shropshire N and Hom & Tiv (assuming it falls next month) which are 60 per cent Leave.

    I think the LibDems will be lucky to get +10 seats from Remainia in GE2024.

    We now go over to @rcs1000 for an even more pessimistic assessment.
    Huge turnaround in Somerset super council says hello.

    This is a proper ding dong conversation though, what the site is all about 👍🏻
  • GaryLGaryL Posts: 131
    HYUFD said:

    GaryL said:

    EPG said:

    Cameron was a lot deeper in negative polling doodoo by the time he panicked and began Brexit. It was also a little later in the parliament. This kind of small lead will just keep the frog boiling. If you are a Tory who thinks Johnson is a serial winner, nothing to worry about. If you are a Tory who thinks he is mainly good at beating the antisemitic Labour left, you might like to see a bit more get up and go from his opponents.

    Johnson is only a winner amongst the OAPS though. And those same OAPS who have got used to for them goldilocks decades of low inflation and rising asset prices will suddenly be confronted with high inflation and plunging asset prices which will be toxic for them
    Will they? Annual house price growth to April 2022 was still 12.1%

    https://news.sky.com/story/house-prices-annual-growth-slows-in-april-amid-warning-of-taste-of-things-to-come-12601329
    tbf i was talking share prices more than property prices though i think the housing market is slowing down now
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Ministers fear ‘biggest rail strike in modern history’
    Freight could be prioritised over passengers to counter food and petrol shortages

    Fears are growing that union action on the railways billed as the biggest in modern history will bring the UK to a standstill, with empty shelves and petrol pumps running dry. Plans are being drawn up for freight trains to take priority over passenger services to keep supermarket shelves stocked...

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ministers-fear-biggest-rail-strike-in-modern-history-509fzzzlp

    Good on the RMT. Fight for the workers. Why not maximise their leverage to get a fair deal.

    In a low inflationary environment low wage increases are tolerable but not in the current environment and cutting the numbers of skilled professionals involved in track maintenance is a battle worth fighting for
    Ah, you mean the RMT, who has as deputy assistant general secretary Eddie Dempsey, who is well-known as a supporter of liberalism and democracy?

    I'm sorry, but as long as he's in position I see any current RMT action as support for Russia.

    (dons his flameproof coat)
    This RMT

    The RMT Union president who is threatening to bring Britain's railways to a standstill this summer is a Putin apologist and senior member of the Communist Party backing pro-Russian separatists

    A union baron plotting a summer of rail chaos is a senior member of the Communist Party who has backed pro-Russian separatists in the Ukraine. Alex Gordon, president of the RMT union, is a longstanding Marxist who has previously echoed the Kremlin’s propaganda by branding Ukraine ‘a failed state held to ransom by neo-Nazis’.

    Following Moscow’s invasion of Crimea, the militant former train driver protested outside Ukraine’s embassy in London in 2015 while wearing the black and orange Ribbon of St George, a symbol of Russian military valour.

    It comes as the RMT threatens to bring Britain to a standstill with the biggest rail strike in modern history. More than 40,000 staff are being balloted on industrial action in a row over pay and jobs. If members back the move, millions of passengers will endure rail misery as early as next month.

    Alex Gordon, president of the RMT union, is a longstanding Marxist who has previously echoed the Kremlin’s propaganda by branding Ukraine ‘a failed state held to ransom by neo-Nazis’

    Already Britain’s most militant union, the RMT has veered even further Left over the past year, rail industry sources say. ‘We could never understand why the RMT is calling strike ballots when the railway is on life support and before there have even been any proper talks,’ one senior source said. ‘Communists and Putin sympathisers have taken over key jobs in the union leadership. They are trying to drag ordinary rail workers into a confrontation which would deeply damage everyone working on the railway.’

    Mr Gordon presides over the RMT’s ruling national executive committee. But he is also a major figure in the Communist Party of Britain, sitting on both its executive and political committees. The 55-year-old is also chairman of the Marx Memorial Library in North London, where Communist dictator Vladimir Lenin worked during his exile from Russia.

    It comes as the RMT threatens to bring Britain to a standstill with the biggest rail strike in modern history. More than 40,000 staff are being balloted on industrial action in a row over pay and jobs
    This strike could be very easily stopped, assuming they win the ballot and I think they will, by the operating companies and network rail coming to their senses and making a fair and reasonable offer.
    I understand the Scottish Government offered 2.2% is that fair and if not how much would you suggest

    https://www.insider.co.uk/news/scotrail-train-drivers-balloted-industrial-26942279
    The RMT very generously previously agreed a below inflation raise. So, now, they need at least inflation.

    2.2% is a substantial pay cut.
    Are you seriously suggesting a 9 % pay rise and if so are you also agreeing nurses, doctors, pensioners and benefits also be raised by 9 %
    Nurses, doctors, train drivers, teachers... they cost what they cost. This is Market Economics Lesson One. The government (as a monopoly employer... a monopsony? in many cases) has the power to hold down salaries in many of these sectors, and it has used that pretty effectively. But that power is not enough to cope with an effective 8 % pay cut.

    So the government has a fairly rubbish choice in this situation. Either it can pay these people more, or it will struggle to recruit. I don't know what it's like in the NHS, but the situation in schools is already pretty grisly.
    Not just struggle to recruit: it will see people leave those professions and to go into alternative careers.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,900
    Feel a bit @Leon talking about travel and alcohol - even if it's just Sheffield.

    Have had a few beers. Which lets be honest is a normal night because depression drives the need for a bit of a buzz to take the dark edge off.

    Not depressed enough to need the happy pills - yet. But have been close to throwing the towel in.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sorry; it’s 20% cuts but up to 40% in some departments.

    It's going to cut "waste" of course. And protect the frontline services. As it always does.
    Which is why you can't get to speak to anyone. Or a passport in short order. Or a driving licence.
    That would be wasteful.
    The public sector needs to embrace automation on a much bigger scale.
    Yep, and they need to start measuring outputs rather than inputs. Tie pay rises to productivity gains and headcount reductions.

    Most CS departments could lose a whole couple of layers of management, without too much effect on the work being done.
    The Tories have had a tendency to add layers of management in the interests of driving efficiency and competition.
    Look no further than Academy chains.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Applicant said:

    Another way of looking at that YouGov poll:

    58% Labour-led coalition parties
    35% Right wing parties
    6% UK wreckers
    1% Others

    So the parties which it could be reasonably assumed would be willing to participate in a Labour-led coalition, that's Labour, the LDs and Greens, are 23% ahead of the Right.

    Yes, keep talking like the LDs are just an adjunct to Labour and see how that works for you.
    Try looking at the polling detail before commenting on polls. When the current LD voters were asked to choose between Starmer and Johnson over who would make Best PM, they divided for Starmer in a ratio of 3.5 to 1. The LDs can't look to prop up the Conservatives again when their voters are so starkly leaning in the other direction.
    I would question the 3.5 ratio.

    I would question it in terms of not being consistent across the country, in parts of remania I would say it’s a lot higher than that.

    The thing with libdems, they are a patchy national party, so many Tory v lab fights they don’t really exist in, but in the tactical voting years when Tory’s unpopular they could snatch safe Tory seats from Tory’s even without tactical voting by virtue of not being labour. That’s what built a golden wall the Tory’s had to knock down.

    I think Remania is actually a growing political factor since we’ve had Boris Brexit, not a shrinking one.
    But, it still shows the LibDems' problem.

    1:3.5 is about 30 percent.

    So, for every 10 LibDem voters, 3 are pissed off if they support Starmer and 7 if they support Johnson.

    The LibDems are probably better off maintaining an arms length separation from whoever runs a minority administration after GE2024.
    Just to repeat what I said, because you obviously not listening.

    It’s not a consistent happy or pissed off ratio across all the nations regions and constituencies, in Remania, where it could actually make a difference in seats, it’s no where near that ratio. In my opinion how this works
    Most of Remainia is already held by Labour (e.g. London, the university seats).

    Now sure, you can point to some Remainia seats like Wimbledon that the LibDems can hope to take.

    But, the pickings are small.

    And the LibDems also have to retain seats like Shropshire N and Hom & Tiv (assuming it falls next month) which are 60 per cent Leave.

    I think the LibDems will be lucky to get +10 seats from Remainia in GE2024.

    We now go over to @rcs1000 for an even more pessimistic assessment.
    Huge turnaround in Somerset super council says hello.
    Oh dear, @MoonRabbit.

    Being a LibDem is like ... liking jazz. Most people don't.

    Of course, they may say they do.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,503
    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:
    Didn't she just meet Michelle O’Neill
    Separatist covid. 😟

    I have a relative who thinks those big lumps on monkey pox little monkeys come out.
    'This News Just Came Over The Radio, followed by a song about “faster horses, younger women, older whiskey and more money …”∗ and then came a news item about a Polish gentleman who was arrested earlier today for throwing “more than two dozen bowling balls into the sea off a pier in Fort Lauderdale” because, he told arresting officers, “he thought they were n****r eggs.” '

    Hunter S Thompson, FALOTCT

    seems relevant
    🤔

    Anyway. How on earth do you sleep on eve of big cup final?

    Someone my dad knows who always goes with family and friends had two people not going so used season tickets to get two for us in east stand. I’ve never been to community stadium before, it looks nice

    https://www.better.org.uk/york-stadium-leisure-complex
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401

    Feel a bit @Leon talking about travel and alcohol - even if it's just Sheffield.

    Have had a few beers. Which lets be honest is a normal night because depression drives the need for a bit of a buzz to take the dark edge off.

    Not depressed enough to need the happy pills - yet. But have been close to throwing the towel in.

    Not good to hear. Try not to. That's easy for me to say.
    But alcohol fuels anxiety. Which feeds depression.
    Accept my very best wishes though. Been there. It isn't nice.
    And I don't mean Sheffield.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    Bugger.

    Been waiting over two years to do Inverness to Kyle and Inverness to Thurso & Wick. Now the new temporary timetable means only ONE round-trip to Kyle (used to be two, I think), and TWO round-trips to the Far North (used to be four).
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,503
    dixiedean said:

    Feel a bit @Leon talking about travel and alcohol - even if it's just Sheffield.

    Have had a few beers. Which lets be honest is a normal night because depression drives the need for a bit of a buzz to take the dark edge off.

    Not depressed enough to need the happy pills - yet. But have been close to throwing the towel in.

    Not good to hear. Try not to. That's easy for me to say.
    But alcohol fuels anxiety. Which feeds depression.
    Accept my very best wishes though. Been there. It isn't nice.
    And I don't mean Sheffield.
    Don’t use booze to fight the blues I suggest 😕

    There are no easy answers but hard work making yourself resilient again. Which you will be. You will be.

    https://www.facebook.com/WHO/videos/i-had-a-black-dog-his-name-was-depression/1242691292442918/
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,036
    dixiedean said:

    GaryL said:

    EPG said:

    Cameron was a lot deeper in negative polling doodoo by the time he panicked and began Brexit. It was also a little later in the parliament. This kind of small lead will just keep the frog boiling. If you are a Tory who thinks Johnson is a serial winner, nothing to worry about. If you are a Tory who thinks he is mainly good at beating the antisemitic Labour left, you might like to see a bit more get up and go from his opponents.

    Johnson is only a winner amongst the OAPS though. And those same OAPS who have got used to for them goldilocks decades of low inflation and rising asset prices will suddenly be confronted with high inflation and plunging asset prices which will be toxic for them
    Can't see an asset price plunge.
    It depends what you mean. I can't see asset prices plunging in nominal terms, but in a time of much higher inflation, I can see them plunging in real terms. People suffer from money illusion (the belief that prices don't change much), and mortgages are usually fixed in nominal terms, so this is more rational than is sometimes allowed for. But there will be big redistributional consequences.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153

    Applicant said:

    Another way of looking at that YouGov poll:

    58% Labour-led coalition parties
    35% Right wing parties
    6% UK wreckers
    1% Others

    So the parties which it could be reasonably assumed would be willing to participate in a Labour-led coalition, that's Labour, the LDs and Greens, are 23% ahead of the Right.

    Yes, keep talking like the LDs are just an adjunct to Labour and see how that works for you.
    Try looking at the polling detail before commenting on polls. When the current LD voters were asked to choose between Starmer and Johnson over who would make Best PM, they divided for Starmer in a ratio of 3.5 to 1. The LDs can't look to prop up the Conservatives again when their voters are so starkly leaning in the other direction.
    I would question the 3.5 ratio.

    I would question it in terms of not being consistent across the country, in parts of remania I would say it’s a lot higher than that.

    The thing with libdems, they are a patchy national party, so many Tory v lab fights they don’t really exist in, but in the tactical voting years when Tory’s unpopular they could snatch safe Tory seats from Tory’s even without tactical voting by virtue of not being labour. That’s what built a golden wall the Tory’s had to knock down.

    I think Remania is actually a growing political factor since we’ve had Boris Brexit, not a shrinking one.
    But, it still shows the LibDems' problem.

    1:3.5 is about 30 percent.

    So, for every 10 LibDem voters, 3 are pissed off if they support Starmer and 7 if they support Johnson.

    The LibDems are probably better off maintaining an arms length separation from whoever runs a minority administration after GE2024.
    Just to repeat what I said, because you obviously not listening.

    It’s not a consistent happy or pissed off ratio across all the nations regions and constituencies, in Remania, where it could actually make a difference in seats, it’s no where near that ratio. In my opinion how this works
    Most of Remainia is already held by Labour (e.g. London, the university seats).

    Now sure, you can point to some Remainia seats like Wimbledon that the LibDems can hope to take.

    But, the pickings are small.

    And the LibDems also have to retain seats like Shropshire N and Hom & Tiv (assuming it falls next month) which are 60 per cent Leave.

    I think the LibDems will be lucky to get +10 seats from Remainia in GE2024.

    We now go over to @rcs1000 for an even more pessimistic assessment.
    The LDs are unlikely to gain more than half a dozen seats from Remainia.

    Wimbledon, Esher and Walton, and... ummm... a few more gathered around. But that'll be about it.
  • GaryLGaryL Posts: 131
    Fishing said:

    dixiedean said:

    GaryL said:

    EPG said:

    Cameron was a lot deeper in negative polling doodoo by the time he panicked and began Brexit. It was also a little later in the parliament. This kind of small lead will just keep the frog boiling. If you are a Tory who thinks Johnson is a serial winner, nothing to worry about. If you are a Tory who thinks he is mainly good at beating the antisemitic Labour left, you might like to see a bit more get up and go from his opponents.

    Johnson is only a winner amongst the OAPS though. And those same OAPS who have got used to for them goldilocks decades of low inflation and rising asset prices will suddenly be confronted with high inflation and plunging asset prices which will be toxic for them
    Can't see an asset price plunge.
    It depends what you mean. I can't see asset prices plunging in nominal terms, but in a time of much higher inflation, I can see them plunging in real terms. People suffer from money illusion (the belief that prices don't change much), and mortgages are usually fixed in nominal terms, so this is more rational than is sometimes allowed for. But there will be big redistributional consequences.
    no once asset prices plunge the BOE will panic and fire up the printing press....then inflation takes off like a rocket
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835

    HYUFD said:
    Didn't she just meet Michelle O’Neill
    What has that to do with the colour of a Yorkshire Transport bus in the 1950s?
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385

    Taz said:

    Good evening from The Roxy (as was) in Sheffield. Do I blame Ukraine / the coat of living crisis for paying £6.70 for a pint...?

    Carling is expensive these days.
    Ewwww. Shipyard. At least it's ale. Have had 3. Decided on a nice round two spot

    Taz said:

    Good evening from The Roxy (as was) in Sheffield. Do I blame Ukraine / the coat of living crisis for paying £6.70 for a pint...?

    Carling is expensive these days.
    Ewwww. Shipyard. At least it's ale. Have had 3. Decided on a nice round two spot
    Man that’s pricey. I was kidding about Carling, I’m sure you knew. I like shipyard, it’s a decent pint and they do a decent low alcohol version, but have never paid anywhere near that for it.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,503

    Applicant said:

    Another way of looking at that YouGov poll:

    58% Labour-led coalition parties
    35% Right wing parties
    6% UK wreckers
    1% Others

    So the parties which it could be reasonably assumed would be willing to participate in a Labour-led coalition, that's Labour, the LDs and Greens, are 23% ahead of the Right.

    Yes, keep talking like the LDs are just an adjunct to Labour and see how that works for you.
    Try looking at the polling detail before commenting on polls. When the current LD voters were asked to choose between Starmer and Johnson over who would make Best PM, they divided for Starmer in a ratio of 3.5 to 1. The LDs can't look to prop up the Conservatives again when their voters are so starkly leaning in the other direction.
    I would question the 3.5 ratio.

    I would question it in terms of not being consistent across the country, in parts of remania I would say it’s a lot higher than that.

    The thing with libdems, they are a patchy national party, so many Tory v lab fights they don’t really exist in, but in the tactical voting years when Tory’s unpopular they could snatch safe Tory seats from Tory’s even without tactical voting by virtue of not being labour. That’s what built a golden wall the Tory’s had to knock down.

    I think Remania is actually a growing political factor since we’ve had Boris Brexit, not a shrinking one.
    But, it still shows the LibDems' problem.

    1:3.5 is about 30 percent.

    So, for every 10 LibDem voters, 3 are pissed off if they support Starmer and 7 if they support Johnson.

    The LibDems are probably better off maintaining an arms length separation from whoever runs a minority administration after GE2024.
    Just to repeat what I said, because you obviously not listening.

    It’s not a consistent happy or pissed off ratio across all the nations regions and constituencies, in Remania, where it could actually make a difference in seats, it’s no where near that ratio. In my opinion how this works
    Most of Remainia is already held by Labour (e.g. London, the university seats).

    Now sure, you can point to some Remainia seats like Wimbledon that the LibDems can hope to take.

    But, the pickings are small.

    And the LibDems also have to retain seats like Shropshire N and Hom & Tiv (assuming it falls next month) which are 60 per cent Leave.

    I think the LibDems will be lucky to get +10 seats from Remainia in GE2024.

    We now go over to @rcs1000 for an even more pessimistic assessment.
    Huge turnaround in Somerset super council says hello.
    Oh dear, @MoonRabbit.

    Being a LibDem is like ... liking jazz. Most people don't.

    Of course, they may say they do.
    I like to smooch to this. Does that count?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AAroz5NWxm0
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    rcs1000 said:

    Applicant said:

    Another way of looking at that YouGov poll:

    58% Labour-led coalition parties
    35% Right wing parties
    6% UK wreckers
    1% Others

    So the parties which it could be reasonably assumed would be willing to participate in a Labour-led coalition, that's Labour, the LDs and Greens, are 23% ahead of the Right.

    Yes, keep talking like the LDs are just an adjunct to Labour and see how that works for you.
    Try looking at the polling detail before commenting on polls. When the current LD voters were asked to choose between Starmer and Johnson over who would make Best PM, they divided for Starmer in a ratio of 3.5 to 1. The LDs can't look to prop up the Conservatives again when their voters are so starkly leaning in the other direction.
    I would question the 3.5 ratio.

    I would question it in terms of not being consistent across the country, in parts of remania I would say it’s a lot higher than that.

    The thing with libdems, they are a patchy national party, so many Tory v lab fights they don’t really exist in, but in the tactical voting years when Tory’s unpopular they could snatch safe Tory seats from Tory’s even without tactical voting by virtue of not being labour. That’s what built a golden wall the Tory’s had to knock down.

    I think Remania is actually a growing political factor since we’ve had Boris Brexit, not a shrinking one.
    But, it still shows the LibDems' problem.

    1:3.5 is about 30 percent.

    So, for every 10 LibDem voters, 3 are pissed off if they support Starmer and 7 if they support Johnson.

    The LibDems are probably better off maintaining an arms length separation from whoever runs a minority administration after GE2024.
    Just to repeat what I said, because you obviously not listening.

    It’s not a consistent happy or pissed off ratio across all the nations regions and constituencies, in Remania, where it could actually make a difference in seats, it’s no where near that ratio. In my opinion how this works
    Most of Remainia is already held by Labour (e.g. London, the university seats).

    Now sure, you can point to some Remainia seats like Wimbledon that the LibDems can hope to take.

    But, the pickings are small.

    And the LibDems also have to retain seats like Shropshire N and Hom & Tiv (assuming it falls next month) which are 60 per cent Leave.

    I think the LibDems will be lucky to get +10 seats from Remainia in GE2024.

    We now go over to @rcs1000 for an even more pessimistic assessment.
    The LDs are unlikely to gain more than half a dozen seats from Remainia.

    Wimbledon, Esher and Walton, and... ummm... a few more gathered around. But that'll be about it.
    Yes, I think so too. But it is the willingness to tactically vote against the Conservatives that is likely to be more influential.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:
    Didn't she just meet Michelle O’Neill
    Separatist covid. 😟

    I have a relative who thinks those big lumps on monkey pox little monkeys come out.
    'This News Just Came Over The Radio, followed by a song about “faster horses, younger women, older whiskey and more money …”∗ and then came a news item about a Polish gentleman who was arrested earlier today for throwing “more than two dozen bowling balls into the sea off a pier in Fort Lauderdale” because, he told arresting officers, “he thought they were n****r eggs.” '

    Hunter S Thompson, FALOTCT

    seems relevant
    🤔

    Anyway. How on earth do you sleep on eve of big cup final?

    Someone my dad knows who always goes with family and friends had two people not going so used season tickets to get two for us in east stand. I’ve never been to community stadium before, it looks nice

    https://www.better.org.uk/york-stadium-leisure-complex
    Playoff final? Good luck with sleep. And the anxiety doesn't get any better during the day. But it's the best way to go up - good luck!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sorry; it’s 20% cuts but up to 40% in some departments.

    It's going to cut "waste" of course. And protect the frontline services. As it always does.
    Which is why you can't get to speak to anyone. Or a passport in short order. Or a driving licence.
    That would be wasteful.
    I don't think think the DVLA staff or Passport Office count in the Civil Service numbers. Aren't they QANGOs?
    No, they're still civil servants, I'm pretty sure.
    Given the sensitivity of the data, I'd be horrified if they weren't, or at least agencies on a similar basis.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,036
    GaryL said:

    Fishing said:

    dixiedean said:

    GaryL said:

    EPG said:

    Cameron was a lot deeper in negative polling doodoo by the time he panicked and began Brexit. It was also a little later in the parliament. This kind of small lead will just keep the frog boiling. If you are a Tory who thinks Johnson is a serial winner, nothing to worry about. If you are a Tory who thinks he is mainly good at beating the antisemitic Labour left, you might like to see a bit more get up and go from his opponents.

    Johnson is only a winner amongst the OAPS though. And those same OAPS who have got used to for them goldilocks decades of low inflation and rising asset prices will suddenly be confronted with high inflation and plunging asset prices which will be toxic for them
    Can't see an asset price plunge.
    It depends what you mean. I can't see asset prices plunging in nominal terms, but in a time of much higher inflation, I can see them plunging in real terms. People suffer from money illusion (the belief that prices don't change much), and mortgages are usually fixed in nominal terms, so this is more rational than is sometimes allowed for. But there will be big redistributional consequences.
    no once asset prices plunge the BOE will panic and fire up the printing press....then inflation takes off like a rocket
    I can't see that. If Corbyn were in power, probably. But even Mitterrand in 1983 was forced to confront reality eventually. Also, it would be inconsistent with the BoE's inflation-targeting mandate.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    rcs1000 said:

    Applicant said:

    Another way of looking at that YouGov poll:

    58% Labour-led coalition parties
    35% Right wing parties
    6% UK wreckers
    1% Others

    So the parties which it could be reasonably assumed would be willing to participate in a Labour-led coalition, that's Labour, the LDs and Greens, are 23% ahead of the Right.

    Yes, keep talking like the LDs are just an adjunct to Labour and see how that works for you.
    Try looking at the polling detail before commenting on polls. When the current LD voters were asked to choose between Starmer and Johnson over who would make Best PM, they divided for Starmer in a ratio of 3.5 to 1. The LDs can't look to prop up the Conservatives again when their voters are so starkly leaning in the other direction.
    I would question the 3.5 ratio.

    I would question it in terms of not being consistent across the country, in parts of remania I would say it’s a lot higher than that.

    The thing with libdems, they are a patchy national party, so many Tory v lab fights they don’t really exist in, but in the tactical voting years when Tory’s unpopular they could snatch safe Tory seats from Tory’s even without tactical voting by virtue of not being labour. That’s what built a golden wall the Tory’s had to knock down.

    I think Remania is actually a growing political factor since we’ve had Boris Brexit, not a shrinking one.
    But, it still shows the LibDems' problem.

    1:3.5 is about 30 percent.

    So, for every 10 LibDem voters, 3 are pissed off if they support Starmer and 7 if they support Johnson.

    The LibDems are probably better off maintaining an arms length separation from whoever runs a minority administration after GE2024.
    Just to repeat what I said, because you obviously not listening.

    It’s not a consistent happy or pissed off ratio across all the nations regions and constituencies, in Remania, where it could actually make a difference in seats, it’s no where near that ratio. In my opinion how this works
    Most of Remainia is already held by Labour (e.g. London, the university seats).

    Now sure, you can point to some Remainia seats like Wimbledon that the LibDems can hope to take.

    But, the pickings are small.

    And the LibDems also have to retain seats like Shropshire N and Hom & Tiv (assuming it falls next month) which are 60 per cent Leave.

    I think the LibDems will be lucky to get +10 seats from Remainia in GE2024.

    We now go over to @rcs1000 for an even more pessimistic assessment.
    The LDs are unlikely to gain more than half a dozen seats from Remainia.

    Wimbledon, Esher and Walton, and... ummm... a few more gathered around. But that'll be about it.
    On today's Yougov on UNS the LDs would gain 16 Tory seats. Wimbledon, Carshalton and Wallington, Cheltenham, Winchester, Cheadle, Cambridgeshire South, Esher and Walton, Lewes, Guildford, Eastbourne, St Ives, Cities of London and Westminster, Hazel Grove, Hitchin and Harpenden, Finchley and Golders Green and Wokingham

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835

    Bugger.

    Been waiting over two years to do Inverness to Kyle and Inverness to Thurso & Wick. Now the new temporary timetable means only ONE round-trip to Kyle (used to be two, I think), and TWO round-trips to the Far North (used to be four).

    Bit turdish that .Just make sure you have booked seats. Those are not the long trains of lots of coaches plus a decent diesel and a restaurant car of the days of yore. Oh for a breakfast again of boiled eggs and toast while bouncing gently on Rannoch Muir (different line I know but the principle is the same).
  • GaryLGaryL Posts: 131
    Fishing said:

    GaryL said:

    Fishing said:

    dixiedean said:

    GaryL said:

    EPG said:

    Cameron was a lot deeper in negative polling doodoo by the time he panicked and began Brexit. It was also a little later in the parliament. This kind of small lead will just keep the frog boiling. If you are a Tory who thinks Johnson is a serial winner, nothing to worry about. If you are a Tory who thinks he is mainly good at beating the antisemitic Labour left, you might like to see a bit more get up and go from his opponents.

    Johnson is only a winner amongst the OAPS though. And those same OAPS who have got used to for them goldilocks decades of low inflation and rising asset prices will suddenly be confronted with high inflation and plunging asset prices which will be toxic for them
    Can't see an asset price plunge.
    It depends what you mean. I can't see asset prices plunging in nominal terms, but in a time of much higher inflation, I can see them plunging in real terms. People suffer from money illusion (the belief that prices don't change much), and mortgages are usually fixed in nominal terms, so this is more rational than is sometimes allowed for. But there will be big redistributional consequences.
    no once asset prices plunge the BOE will panic and fire up the printing press....then inflation takes off like a rocket
    I can't see that. If Corbyn were in power, probably. But even Mitterrand in 1983 was forced to confront reality eventually. Also, it would be inconsistent with the BoE's inflation-targeting mandate.
    peoples pensions being wiped out....millions of homeowners in trouble with higher mortgage interest rates....they wouldnt hesitate as it would kick the can down the road 2 or 3 years
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,503
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Applicant said:

    Another way of looking at that YouGov poll:

    58% Labour-led coalition parties
    35% Right wing parties
    6% UK wreckers
    1% Others

    So the parties which it could be reasonably assumed would be willing to participate in a Labour-led coalition, that's Labour, the LDs and Greens, are 23% ahead of the Right.

    Yes, keep talking like the LDs are just an adjunct to Labour and see how that works for you.
    Try looking at the polling detail before commenting on polls. When the current LD voters were asked to choose between Starmer and Johnson over who would make Best PM, they divided for Starmer in a ratio of 3.5 to 1. The LDs can't look to prop up the Conservatives again when their voters are so starkly leaning in the other direction.
    I would question the 3.5 ratio.

    I would question it in terms of not being consistent across the country, in parts of remania I would say it’s a lot higher than that.

    The thing with libdems, they are a patchy national party, so many Tory v lab fights they don’t really exist in, but in the tactical voting years when Tory’s unpopular they could snatch safe Tory seats from Tory’s even without tactical voting by virtue of not being labour. That’s what built a golden wall the Tory’s had to knock down.

    I think Remania is actually a growing political factor since we’ve had Boris Brexit, not a shrinking one.
    But, it still shows the LibDems' problem.

    1:3.5 is about 30 percent.

    So, for every 10 LibDem voters, 3 are pissed off if they support Starmer and 7 if they support Johnson.

    The LibDems are probably better off maintaining an arms length separation from whoever runs a minority administration after GE2024.
    Just to repeat what I said, because you obviously not listening.

    It’s not a consistent happy or pissed off ratio across all the nations regions and constituencies, in Remania, where it could actually make a difference in seats, it’s no where near that ratio. In my opinion how this works
    Most of Remainia is already held by Labour (e.g. London, the university seats).

    Now sure, you can point to some Remainia seats like Wimbledon that the LibDems can hope to take.

    But, the pickings are small.

    And the LibDems also have to retain seats like Shropshire N and Hom & Tiv (assuming it falls next month) which are 60 per cent Leave.

    I think the LibDems will be lucky to get +10 seats from Remainia in GE2024.

    We now go over to @rcs1000 for an even more pessimistic assessment.
    The LDs are unlikely to gain more than half a dozen seats from Remainia.

    Wimbledon, Esher and Walton, and... ummm... a few more gathered around. But that'll be about it.
    On today's Yougov on UNS the LDs would gain 16 Tory seats. Wimbledon, Carshalton and Wallington, Cheltenham, Winchester, Cheadle, Cambridgeshire South, Esher and Walton, Lewes, Guildford, Eastbourne, St Ives, Cities of London and Westminster, Hazel Grove, Hitchin and Harpenden, Finchley and Golders Green and Wokingham

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
    Loving all your posts today HY 👍🏻
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sorry; it’s 20% cuts but up to 40% in some departments.

    It's going to cut "waste" of course. And protect the frontline services. As it always does.
    Which is why you can't get to speak to anyone. Or a passport in short order. Or a driving licence.
    That would be wasteful.
    I don't think think the DVLA staff or Passport Office count in the Civil Service numbers. Aren't they QANGOs?
    No, they're still civil servants, I'm pretty sure.
    Given the sensitivity of the data, I'd be horrified if they weren't, or at least agencies on a similar basis.
    No, it is the French call centre company that has the Passport Office contract. Presumably there is some vetting...

    https://www.personneltoday.com/hr/passport-office-private-firm-told-to-hire-more-staff/

    To add fuel to the fire, Teleperformance have a lot of staff working from home.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835
    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sorry; it’s 20% cuts but up to 40% in some departments.

    It's going to cut "waste" of course. And protect the frontline services. As it always does.
    Which is why you can't get to speak to anyone. Or a passport in short order. Or a driving licence.
    That would be wasteful.
    I don't think think the DVLA staff or Passport Office count in the Civil Service numbers. Aren't they QANGOs?
    No, they're still civil servants, I'm pretty sure.
    Given the sensitivity of the data, I'd be horrified if they weren't, or at least agencies on a similar basis.
    No, it is the French call centre company that has the Passport Office contract. Presumably there is some vetting...

    https://www.personneltoday.com/hr/passport-office-private-firm-told-to-hire-more-staff/

    To add fuel to the fire, Teleperformance have a lot of staff working from home.
    Roupignoles!! C'est un gros tas de conneries. Eh, ça donne vraiment l'impression que tout est malade. Tant pis pour le Brexit.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,503
    edited May 2022
    Applicant said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:
    Didn't she just meet Michelle O’Neill
    Separatist covid. 😟

    I have a relative who thinks those big lumps on monkey pox little monkeys come out.
    'This News Just Came Over The Radio, followed by a song about “faster horses, younger women, older whiskey and more money …”∗ and then came a news item about a Polish gentleman who was arrested earlier today for throwing “more than two dozen bowling balls into the sea off a pier in Fort Lauderdale” because, he told arresting officers, “he thought they were n****r eggs.” '

    Hunter S Thompson, FALOTCT

    seems relevant
    🤔

    Anyway. How on earth do you sleep on eve of big cup final?

    Someone my dad knows who always goes with family and friends had two people not going so used season tickets to get two for us in east stand. I’ve never been to community stadium before, it looks nice

    https://www.better.org.uk/york-stadium-leisure-complex
    Playoff final? Good luck with sleep. And the anxiety doesn't get any better during the day. But it's the best way to go up - good luck!
    Thank you. 🙂

    After everyone having their football nail chewing fun recently, tomorrow it’s my turn 🥳

    Finished higher in league than them, and home advantage.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835
    This thread has refused to stand for Parliament because as a Tory lawyer it's not allowed to fiddle 500K pa.
  • GaryLGaryL Posts: 131
    Fishing said:

    GaryL said:

    Fishing said:

    dixiedean said:

    GaryL said:

    EPG said:

    Cameron was a lot deeper in negative polling doodoo by the time he panicked and began Brexit. It was also a little later in the parliament. This kind of small lead will just keep the frog boiling. If you are a Tory who thinks Johnson is a serial winner, nothing to worry about. If you are a Tory who thinks he is mainly good at beating the antisemitic Labour left, you might like to see a bit more get up and go from his opponents.

    Johnson is only a winner amongst the OAPS though. And those same OAPS who have got used to for them goldilocks decades of low inflation and rising asset prices will suddenly be confronted with high inflation and plunging asset prices which will be toxic for them
    Can't see an asset price plunge.
    It depends what you mean. I can't see asset prices plunging in nominal terms, but in a time of much higher inflation, I can see them plunging in real terms. People suffer from money illusion (the belief that prices don't change much), and mortgages are usually fixed in nominal terms, so this is more rational than is sometimes allowed for. But there will be big redistributional consequences.
    no once asset prices plunge the BOE will panic and fire up the printing press....then inflation takes off like a rocket
    I can't see that. If Corbyn were in power, probably. But even Mitterrand in 1983 was forced to confront reality eventually. Also, it would be inconsistent with the BoE's inflation-targeting mandate.
    not saying the BOE would want to fire up the printing press but if credit markets(which is what the BOE is primarily concerned about) seize up they would have no good options.....this is not 2008 when inflation was calm
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    PA 2022 GOP USS Primary update

    With over 1.3m votes counted so far, Dr Oz leads currently by +1,108 votes over McCormick.

    New updates have been dribbing-drabbing all day from counties across PA, but Oz has mained a pretty steady lead in 1.1k vicinity on Primary Day +3.

    ABC News (via AP - Mark Levy) - Oz, McCormick prepare for recount in Pa. GOP Senate race
    Celebrity heart surgeon Dr. Mehmet Oz and former hedge fund CEO David McCormick began staffing up their campaigns with recount specialists as vote counting entered a fourth day in Pennsylvania’s Republican primary for an open U.S. Senate seat.

    Both campaigns have hired Washington-based lawyers to lead their recount efforts, and both have hired Philadelphia-based campaign strategists who helped lead the operation to observe vote-counting on Election Day for Donald Trump's presidential campaign in 2020.

    The two campaigns already had dozens of lawyers and volunteers fanned out around the presidential battleground state as election workers and election boards toiled through the remaining ballots.

    A recount would mean that the outcome of the race might not be known until June 8, the deadline for counties to report their results to the state. . . .

    County election boards began meeting Friday to sort out problematic or provisional ballots, while election workers plowed through thousands of outstanding mail ballots. In Allegheny County, which includes Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia, that included some uncounted election day precinct tallies.

    Pennsylvania’s Department of State, which oversees elections, said there were almost 28,000 mail-in and absentee ballots — 8,300 in the Republican primary — left to be counted, based on information it had from counties as of midday Friday.

    Even before a recount starts, there could be a flurry of lawsuits contesting the decisions of certain counties on whether to count ballots that may be difficult to read or bear some kind of irregularity.

    As of yet, neither campaign has gone to court, and both candidates have expressed confidence that they will win.

    A recount could change the initial result: A recount of a statewide judicial contest last November ended up padding a winner’s margin by more than 5,500 votes in a race where 5.1 million ballots were cast.

    Statewide, McCormick was doing better than Oz among mail ballots, while Oz was doing better among votes cast on election day. Counties also must still count provisional, overseas and military absentee ballots before they certify their results to the state by next Tuesday’s 5 p.m. deadline.

    Republican turnout exceeded 38%, the highest midterm primary showing in at least two decades, boosted by more than $70 million in advertising and other spending in the Senate GOP campaign. . . .

    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/oz-mccormick-prepare-recount-pa-gop-senate-race-84863273
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631

    NEW THREAD

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,503
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:
    Didn't she just meet Michelle O’Neill
    What has that to do with the colour of a Yorkshire Transport bus in the 1950s?
    I think they were red.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,998
    Foxy said:
    We have lost half our band 2 admin and reception staff in my department this year. Being abused by the public and low pay isn't a great combination.
    Here's a parallel story, from a rather different organization: In the Seattle area there is a local grocery chain, QFC, a little above average in both price and quality. The pandemic has been hard on their workers, and so I was only a little surprised to see, a few months ago, at the nearest store, a sign asking the customers not to abuse the workers, since the store was short of staff, and the workers were doing the best they could. (The chain has been trying hard to hire help. For instance, when you walk in the main entrance, there is a table with some very simple employment applications.)

    I've tried to be a little gentler and kinder in the store during the pandemic, and have thanked some of them for the risks they have taken.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,581

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Ministers fear ‘biggest rail strike in modern history’
    Freight could be prioritised over passengers to counter food and petrol shortages

    Fears are growing that union action on the railways billed as the biggest in modern history will bring the UK to a standstill, with empty shelves and petrol pumps running dry. Plans are being drawn up for freight trains to take priority over passenger services to keep supermarket shelves stocked...

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ministers-fear-biggest-rail-strike-in-modern-history-509fzzzlp

    Good on the RMT. Fight for the workers. Why not maximise their leverage to get a fair deal.

    In a low inflationary environment low wage increases are tolerable but not in the current environment and cutting the numbers of skilled professionals involved in track maintenance is a battle worth fighting for
    Ah, you mean the RMT, who has as deputy assistant general secretary Eddie Dempsey, who is well-known as a supporter of liberalism and democracy?

    I'm sorry, but as long as he's in position I see any current RMT action as support for Russia.

    (dons his flameproof coat)
    I doubt if most RMT members are very interested in the views of the leadership on Ukraine - they simply want to maintain their income. The RMT's job is to fight their corner, and even if they were run by a joint leadership of Ed Davey and Mother Teresa, it would be odd if they passively accepted a real pay cut.
    They may well not be interested in the leadership's views on Ukraine - but that does not mean that those views are irrelevant to the strike.
This discussion has been closed.