I remain unconvinced we will ever see this Gray report other than perhaps some executive summary bullshit.
I doubt I will be alive when the 30 year rule expires and the report is finally made public.
The whole thing is becoming an establishment stitch up.
It is reported that Sue Gray is seeking to name senior civil servants but their unions and hr departments are resisting disclosure.
It would be ironic if the unions succeed in redacting the names of those at the centre of this
Why ironic? If unions are protecting the careers of its members, not serving the desire of others to know the names of those civil servants at centre of this, that’s hardly ironic.
Unfortunately though, a point of too much information being out has already been crossed, knowing some got 5 fpn, at same time knowing Boris got 1, Simon Case 0.
This is not remotely over is it. All that had happened today is it had taken a angry and bitter turn into a new direction, a new quite nastier thing.
You're scraping the bottom of the barrel raw now.
This has been done to death and even Keith was photographed drinking beer.
Unless there's some seriously shocking photos in the Gray report, worse than a Korma and Beer night, the public is looking at their electricity bills etc not bothered about Simon Case.
I remain unconvinced we will ever see this Gray report other than perhaps some executive summary bullshit.
I doubt I will be alive when the 30 year rule expires and the report is finally made public.
The whole thing is becoming an establishment stitch up.
It is reported that Sue Gray is seeking to name senior civil servants but their unions and hr departments are resisting disclosure.
It would be ironic if the unions succeed in redacting the names of those at the centre of this
Why ironic? If unions are protecting the careers of its members, not serving the desire of others to know the names of those civil servants at centre of this, that’s hardly ironic.
Unfortunately though, a point of too much information being out has already been crossed, knowing some got 5 fpn, at same time knowing Boris got 1, Simon Case 0.
This is not remotely over is it. All that had happened today is it had taken a angry and bitter turn into a new direction, a new quite nastier thing.
You're scraping the bottom of the barrel raw now.
This has been done to death and even Keith was photographed drinking beer.
Unless there's some seriously shocking photos in the Gray report, worse than a Korma and Beer night, the public is looking at their electricity bills etc not bothered about Simon Case.
And Starmer's going down!
As are Rayner and Foy.
Johnson only being investigated for two out of the five "work events" he attended is dereliction of duty.
Had the Gray Report been published in full when Gray had completed it, Johnson was finished.
The Met then, after a change of heart, demand the suspension of the Gray Report. In the meantime they barely investigate Johnson and they fail to investigate Case. Johnson is then considered exonerated and survives. This stinks.
Are either Case and/or Johnson Freemasons?
That is quite an allegation
I don’t know about the Freemasons part, but this seems disturbing.
Johnson is a lucky General...but still a dreadful Prime Minister.
He’s gonna win in 2024. I have a foresense
Thank you Lord Astor.
He might, but the economy among other things has got to look a whole lot better than it does now. Unless of course you are banking on a successful culture war from Big Dog.
I just have this weird eerie sense that he has the Luck of the Devil (also, by 2024 Sir Kir Royale will be 61, and even more boring than he is now)
Right now I expect the Bozzer to scrape home with a tiny Maj
I still think that's the favourite outcome. It seems a little curious that is a common view of many of the lefter posters.
The question I would ask of those who can remember is - does this feel like 1995 or 2008?
Certainly, I think in 1995 it already looked like the Tories were on their way out. In 2008, it looked bad for lab after the bottled election.
I still see Starmer as being in the mould of Kinnock or Howard - the guy who fixes the damage of the previous disastrous incumbent but not able to win.
Next election will be like 1992 or perhaps 2005.
Or 2010 or 1964. However it will not be 1997 definitely
At this point in the 2005 to 2010 Parliament LOTO Cameron had to a huge lead in the opinion polls and was cleaning up at local elections so I can't see 2023/2024 being a 2010.
1964... Maybe? But SKS is no Wilson that's for sure...
Something forgotten, it seems, is that the original idea of owning your home went like this -
1) you rent forever 2) you pay a mortgage for 20 years. Then live rent free for the rest of your life.
If you have no rent, you can live on a tiny income.
A lot of people are going to find that the amount they are putting in pensions etc is not equal to the cost of property + living.
Dr Palmer - you have very substantial pensions IIRC.
Most people don’t
Absolutely. There will be a vast cohort of people growing old in the coming decades who will never be able to afford to retire. They'll work and work and work until they either become physically incapable of working, or they drop down dead.
I doubt it, by 39 most have still bought a property and most are enrolled in workplace pensions too to top up the state pension
Much of the population are not owner-occupiers and have no hope whatsoever of becoming so. As for occupational pensions, the overwhelming majority (especially in the private sector) are money purchase, which are appalling value due to long life expectancy and the resultant rock bottom annuity rates.
The sums you have to plough into them to achieve a comfortable fraction of your working income at retirement are colossal. I used to work in pensions administration twenty years ago and savers were often shocked by how little their fat contributions were projected to buy them in the way of income at pensionable age, and things have only got worse since. Even we lucky few who are still accruing defined benefits have seen our contributions jacked up hugely in recent years and our accrual rates slashed.
Much of the population has nothing left after paying essential costs like rent or mortgage, food and fuel, and is already bridging the gaps with credit cards or making serious economies. How in the name of God are people meant to afford to blow a quarter or a third of their post-tax income for anything up to a fifty-year career to fund a decent pension at the end of it?
They can't afford it, so they'll end up working until they drop.
No, the vast majority of us will still be owner occupiers by retirement age, with neither rent nor mortgage to pay
Occupational pensions then add further income beyond the state pension to retirement incomes
You say No, but only respond to the owner occupier point @pigeon makes, whereas most of his point was about the very low occupational DC pension most people will get to add to their state pension.
I remain unconvinced we will ever see this Gray report other than perhaps some executive summary bullshit.
I doubt I will be alive when the 30 year rule expires and the report is finally made public.
The whole thing is becoming an establishment stitch up.
It is reported that Sue Gray is seeking to name senior civil servants but their unions and hr departments are resisting disclosure.
It would be ironic if the unions succeed in redacting the names of those at the centre of this
Why ironic? If unions are protecting the careers of its members, not serving the desire of others to know the names of those civil servants at centre of this, that’s hardly ironic.
Unfortunately though, a point of too much information being out has already been crossed, knowing some got 5 fpn, at same time knowing Boris got 1, Simon Case 0.
This is not remotely over is it. All that had happened today is it had taken a angry and bitter turn into a new direction, a new quite nastier thing.
You're scraping the bottom of the barrel raw now.
This has been done to death and even Keith was photographed drinking beer.
Unless there's some seriously shocking photos in the Gray report, worse than a Korma and Beer night, the public is looking at their electricity bills etc not bothered about Simon Case.
I remain unconvinced we will ever see this Gray report other than perhaps some executive summary bullshit.
I doubt I will be alive when the 30 year rule expires and the report is finally made public.
The whole thing is becoming an establishment stitch up.
It is reported that Sue Gray is seeking to name senior civil servants but their unions and hr departments are resisting disclosure.
It would be ironic if the unions succeed in redacting the names of those at the centre of this
Why ironic? If unions are protecting the careers of its members, not serving the desire of others to know the names of those civil servants at centre of this, that’s hardly ironic.
Unfortunately though, a point of too much information being out has already been crossed, knowing some got 5 fpn, at same time knowing Boris got 1, Simon Case 0.
This is not remotely over is it. All that had happened today is it had taken a angry and bitter turn into a new direction, a new quite nastier thing.
You're scraping the bottom of the barrel raw now.
This has been done to death and even Keith was photographed drinking beer.
Unless there's some seriously shocking photos in the Gray report, worse than a Korma and Beer night, the public is looking at their electricity bills etc not bothered about Simon Case.
And Starmer's going down!
As are Rayner and Foy.
Johnson only being investigated for two out of the five "work events" he attended is dereliction of duty.
Had the Gray Report been published in full when Gray had completed it, Johnson was finished.
The Met then, after a change of heart, demand the suspension of the Gray Report. In the meantime they barely investigate Johnson and they fail to investigate Case. Johnson is then considered exonerated and survives. This stinks.
Respectful of the will of the British people and of Brexit... Heh. Yes, Brexit was indeed a British choice.
The problem with disavowing the Northern Ireland Protocol is that while it might play well in the Express, it basically pisses off everyone else and makes the UK look ever more like a dodgy dealer.
Many will say so what, but the practical impact is the EU cannot trust the UK to maintain the integrity of the single market.
A solution to Northern Ireland is not possible with Boris Johnson in power, he simply cannot be trusted.
Boris sends up politics, he’s the ultimate politician for those who hate politicians and just want to see the world burn.
Until of course they get burned themselves. The longer he sticks around the more people get burned. It’s all a game.
It will be a mess when he eventually runs out of fuel and someone has to clean up the mess.
Although after six months of investigations into wrongdoing sees the most shocking 'crime' being committed at Westminster was a birthday cake and a chorus of happy birthday at lunchtime, perhaps this is more appropriate . . .
Respectful of the will of the British people and of Brexit... Heh. Yes, Brexit was indeed a British choice.
The problem with disavowing the Northern Ireland Protocol is that while it might play well in the Express, it basically pisses off everyone else and makes the UK look ever more like a dodgy dealer.
Many will say so what, but the practical impact is the EU cannot trust the UK to maintain the integrity of the single market.
A solution to Northern Ireland is not possible with Boris Johnson in power, he simply cannot be trusted.
I think there is a logic problem with that though. A Labour Government might in theory be able to negotiate a different solution with more good faith, but if it’s Tory opposition states it will overturn anything that’s been agreed…..
Johnson is a lucky General...but still a dreadful Prime Minister.
He’s gonna win in 2024. I have a foresense
Thank you Lord Astor.
He might, but the economy among other things has got to look a whole lot better than it does now. Unless of course you are banking on a successful culture war from Big Dog.
I just have this weird eerie sense that he has the Luck of the Devil (also, by 2024 Sir Kir Royale will be 61, and even more boring than he is now)
Right now I expect the Bozzer to scrape home with a tiny Maj
I still think that's the favourite outcome. It seems a little curious that is a common view of many of the lefter posters.
The question I would ask of those who can remember is - does this feel like 1995 or 2008?
Certainly, I think in 1995 it already looked like the Tories were on their way out. In 2008, it looked bad for lab after the bottled election.
I still see Starmer as being in the mould of Kinnock or Howard - the guy who fixes the damage of the previous disastrous incumbent but not able to win.
Next election will be like 1992 or perhaps 2005.
Or 2010 or 1964. However it will not be 1997 definitely
At this point in the 2005 to 2010 Parliament LOTO Cameron had to a huge lead in the opinion polls and was cleaning up at local elections so I can't see 2023/2024 being a 2010.
1964... Maybe? But SKS is no Wilson that's for sure...
Tomorrows Papers are split largely 3 ways. The farcical sight of the Mail arguing what a waste of police time Investigating these sort of things (🤣) joined by express pleading, can’t we just move on? Opposite to that Guardian and Independent absolutely spitting teeth “fury as Boris escapes with just 1 fine” “one rule for him?” The Mirror seems convinced the number of fines makes mockery of some of Boris statements to parliament. But, where it’s on the front pages of Times and Telegraph supports where I argue this is now going into a more bitter and dangerous phase for the government. The Police won’t tell Gray who they have fined. She has a battle to name names and battle to publish photographs.
Any sense of a cover up here becoming the narrative has to be extremely dangerous for the Conservatives doesn’t it, more dangerous than Partygate itself? Why? Because Partygate largely owned by Boris, largely voncked away with him. Partygate whitewash, one rule for them one rule for us, will be largely owned by the party in government and stick around post Boris. Won’t it?
Johnson is a lucky General...but still a dreadful Prime Minister.
He’s gonna win in 2024. I have a foresense
Thank you Lord Astor.
He might, but the economy among other things has got to look a whole lot better than it does now. Unless of course you are banking on a successful culture war from Big Dog.
I just have this weird eerie sense that he has the Luck of the Devil (also, by 2024 Sir Kir Royale will be 61, and even more boring than he is now)
Right now I expect the Bozzer to scrape home with a tiny Maj
I still think that's the favourite outcome. It seems a little curious that is a common view of many of the lefter posters.
The question I would ask of those who can remember is - does this feel like 1995 or 2008?
Certainly, I think in 1995 it already looked like the Tories were on their way out. In 2008, it looked bad for lab after the bottled election.
I still see Starmer as being in the mould of Kinnock or Howard - the guy who fixes the damage of the previous disastrous incumbent but not able to win.
Next election will be like 1992 or perhaps 2005.
Or 2010 or 1964. However it will not be 1997 definitely
At this point in the 2005 to 2010 Parliament LOTO Cameron had to a huge lead in the opinion polls and was cleaning up at local elections so I can't see 2023/2024 being a 2010.
1964... Maybe? But SKS is no Wilson that's for sure...
What about Nandy or Streeting?
Ooo well, if Keith is replaced, then all bets are off course.
My prediction is based on the next election being a Boris/Starmer match up.
I can see Wes winning a big majority for Labour in 2028/2029...
Johnson is a lucky General...but still a dreadful Prime Minister.
He’s gonna win in 2024. I have a foresense
Thank you Lord Astor.
He might, but the economy among other things has got to look a whole lot better than it does now. Unless of course you are banking on a successful culture war from Big Dog.
I just have this weird eerie sense that he has the Luck of the Devil (also, by 2024 Sir Kir Royale will be 61, and even more boring than he is now)
Right now I expect the Bozzer to scrape home with a tiny Maj
I still think that's the favourite outcome. It seems a little curious that is a common view of many of the lefter posters.
Con majority at 4.1 on Bfx is looking value to me.
I bought it in the low 2s... so I'm feeling a little bruised!
With that said, I think this is simply a bet on the Ukrainian war ending before (say) mid 2023, and energy prices therefore coming down sharply.
Respectful of the will of the British people and of Brexit... Heh. Yes, Brexit was indeed a British choice.
The problem with disavowing the Northern Ireland Protocol is that while it might play well in the Express, it basically pisses off everyone else and makes the UK look ever more like a dodgy dealer.
Many will say so what, but the practical impact is the EU cannot trust the UK to maintain the integrity of the single market.
A solution to Northern Ireland is not possible with Boris Johnson in power, he simply cannot be trusted.
The problem with that is all the opponents of Boris Johnson have bet the house on the sanctity of "peace in Northern Ireland" and "the Good Friday Agreement".
All Boris has to do is turn it around now and say that he is putting the Good Friday Agreement first, and with one bound he is free.
So long as he doesn't build a land border, what's the problem? There were three things that had to be achieved - get out of the EU, no sea border, no land border. Two are done already, we're out of the EU and there's no land border - if he unilaterally drops t he sea border while neither rejoining the EU nor building a land border then the so-called 🦄 is suddenly in existance.
Once the unicorn is real, then what do the people betting the house on the Good Friday Agreement do next? You can't say that Britain needs to build a sea border as not doing so is a unicorn, when not doing so is already the status quo. You can't say we need to be in the EU, when we're already not. You can't say we aren't allowed to build a land border, when we're saying we're not doing so anyway.
So once the unicorn is alive and visible to all, then what do you do next? How do you slay the unicorn?
From "I'm a Lib Dem, me" to gushing Borgasm because Big Dog has only be fined once is a hell of an arc.
it’s not Borgasm, it’s just very funny! Listen.
“ It had been thought that Johnson and his wife were quite likely to be fined over at least one further event – the gathering held in the Downing Street flat on the night Dominic Cummings quit. Loud Abba music was heard coming from the flat that night, and Carrie Johnson (who was delighted to see Cummings go) was said to be celebrating with friends who work as government advisers. Sources have claimed that they were there for a work meeting, and that the PM was interviewing one of the attendees about a potential job. “
Labour have now lost 2 leaders in Milliband and Starmer, and two elections, 2015 and 2024, due to mishaps with takeaway food! Is that not amazing?
Macron is toast. I’m on Melenchon at 80 and still confident of him, because he is just simply a smarter more agile politician than Le Pen. This is how it plays out. Last first round polls show nothing in it between Le Pen and Melenchon. Macron’s second round defeat is France “Brexit” moment. Every country is going to have some sort of we are the people and we want the drawbridge up to be great again, moment.
Good luck guessing even the date of the next election, let alone its result. You couldn't even spot the winner of the French election a week out when the incumbent was leading in the polls and had better approval ratings 🤷
Oh Farooq it’s a lie to say that post you quote was 1 week out, more like 2 months before.
8 days before, to be precise. So along with being notably poor at predicting the future, you seem to be a bit rubbish at predicting the past too.
MoonRabbit here - most impartial sharpest analysis around.
Havn’t yet read what you’ve posted, but I disagree with it.
Indigenous leaders met Prince Charles in Canada and asked for an apology from the Queen over the "assimilation and genocide" of indigenous schoolchildren.
RoseAnne Archibald, Assembly of First Nations national chief, said the prince "acknowledged" failures in handling the relationship with indigenous people.
Canada is dealing with a scandal which saw indigenous children die or be abused in residential schools.
There have been calls for the Queen to apologise over the issue.
Something forgotten, it seems, is that the original idea of owning your home went like this -
1) you rent forever 2) you pay a mortgage for 20 years. Then live rent free for the rest of your life.
If you have no rent, you can live on a tiny income.
A lot of people are going to find that the amount they are putting in pensions etc is not equal to the cost of property + living.
Dr Palmer - you have very substantial pensions IIRC.
Most people don’t
Absolutely. There will be a vast cohort of people growing old in the coming decades who will never be able to afford to retire. They'll work and work and work until they either become physically incapable of working, or they drop down dead.
I doubt it, by 39 most have still bought a property and most are enrolled in workplace pensions too to top up the state pension
Much of the population are not owner-occupiers and have no hope whatsoever of becoming so. As for occupational pensions, the overwhelming majority (especially in the private sector) are money purchase, which are appalling value due to long life expectancy and the resultant rock bottom annuity rates.
The sums you have to plough into them to achieve a comfortable fraction of your working income at retirement are colossal. I used to work in pensions administration twenty years ago and savers were often shocked by how little their fat contributions were projected to buy them in the way of income at pensionable age, and things have only got worse since. Even we lucky few who are still accruing defined benefits have seen our contributions jacked up hugely in recent years and our accrual rates slashed.
Much of the population has nothing left after paying essential costs like rent or mortgage, food and fuel, and is already bridging the gaps with credit cards or making serious economies. How in the name of God are people meant to afford to blow a quarter or a third of their post-tax income for anything up to a fifty-year career to fund a decent pension at the end of it?
They can't afford it, so they'll end up working until they drop.
No, the vast majority of us will still be owner occupiers by retirement age, with neither rent nor mortgage to pay
Occupational pensions then add further income beyond the state pension to retirement incomes
You say No, but only respond to the owner occupier point @pigeon makes, whereas most of his point was about the very low occupational DC pension most people will get to add to their state pension.
Which is still better than the position until recently where most people relied solely on the state pension without any private pension at all. Other than the public sector and top management and professionals in the private sector, most did not have workplace or private pensions
Well nothing will happen with NIP until next year and chances are she won't even be Speaker after November, so...
As the tweet and responses point out, there is bipartisan opposition to any trade deal with the UK if it continues along its course.
There's not going to be a trade deal with the US anyway? We was told that by Obama in 2016? I think HMG is trying to do little state by state deals but most of us will probably be dead by the time our "special friend" wants to do a deal with us lol!
Indigenous leaders met Prince Charles in Canada and asked for an apology from the Queen over the "assimilation and genocide" of indigenous schoolchildren.
RoseAnne Archibald, Assembly of First Nations national chief, said the prince "acknowledged" failures in handling the relationship with indigenous people.
Canada is dealing with a scandal which saw indigenous children die or be abused in residential schools.
There have been calls for the Queen to apologise over the issue.
I remain unconvinced we will ever see this Gray report other than perhaps some executive summary bullshit.
I doubt I will be alive when the 30 year rule expires and the report is finally made public.
The whole thing is becoming an establishment stitch up.
It is reported that Sue Gray is seeking to name senior civil servants but their unions and hr departments are resisting disclosure.
It would be ironic if the unions succeed in redacting the names of those at the centre of this
Why ironic? If unions are protecting the careers of its members, not serving the desire of others to know the names of those civil servants at centre of this, that’s hardly ironic.
Unfortunately though, a point of too much information being out has already been crossed, knowing some got 5 fpn, at same time knowing Boris got 1, Simon Case 0.
This is not remotely over is it. All that had happened today is it had taken a angry and bitter turn into a new direction, a new quite nastier thing.
You're scraping the bottom of the barrel raw now.
This has been done to death and even Keith was photographed drinking beer.
Unless there's some seriously shocking photos in the Gray report, worse than a Korma and Beer night, the public is looking at their electricity bills etc not bothered about Simon Case.
Well, let’s see how this establishment whitewash plays in the coming week then.
Well nothing will happen with NIP until next year and chances are she won't even be Speaker after November, so...
As the tweet and responses point out, there is bipartisan opposition to any trade deal with the UK if it continues along its course.
There's not going to be a trade deal with the US anyway? We was told that by Obama in 2016? I think HMG is trying to do little state by state deals but most of us will probably be dead by the time our "special friend" wants to do a deal with us lol!
The one possible path to a trade deal with the US is that they choose to join the CPTPP in order to combat the threat of China and we've already joined it first. But even that's exceptionally unlikely.
The US Congress is not in the mood to pass trade deals and hasn't been for years now. So if they're not going to anyway, then what's the problem?
Well nothing will happen with NIP until next year and chances are she won't even be Speaker after November, so...
As the tweet and responses point out, there is bipartisan opposition to any trade deal with the UK if it continues along its course.
But we know we aren’t getting a trade deal with the US anyway. So that’s a useful non-threat they can happily make and we can ignore.
That’s fine but it was a key part of the Brexit economic case, such as it was.
The ability to make deals was a key part of the Brexit economic case, not making a deal explicitly and solely with the USA.
Since we already have some deals and talks are quite advanced already on the CPTPP which would trump them all, that's a key part that is still going strong.
Its worth remembering that if Britain joins the CPTPP then that would be a bigger trade zone than the European Union - as well as a faster growing one.
It looks like the Sue Gray report will end up watered down and further delayed . Given those named can challenge the findings and put pressure on Gray to be less critical.
I’ll be shocked if we see this report anytime soon .
Well nothing will happen with NIP until next year and chances are she won't even be Speaker after November, so...
As the tweet and responses point out, there is bipartisan opposition to any trade deal with the UK if it continues along its course.
But we know we aren’t getting a trade deal with the US anyway. So that’s a useful non-threat they can happily make and we can ignore.
That’s fine but it was a key part of the Brexit economic case, such as it was.
That’s a different argument. My point is this isn’t a threat - it’s stating something everyone knows is baked in as if it’s a threat. That’s diplomacy. A light, pretend, slap on the wrist.
Johnson is a lucky General...but still a dreadful Prime Minister.
He’s gonna win in 2024. I have a foresense
Thank you Lord Astor.
He might, but the economy among other things has got to look a whole lot better than it does now. Unless of course you are banking on a successful culture war from Big Dog.
I just have this weird eerie sense that he has the Luck of the Devil (also, by 2024 Sir Kir Royale will be 61, and even more boring than he is now)
Right now I expect the Bozzer to scrape home with a tiny Maj
I still think that's the favourite outcome. It seems a little curious that is a common view of many of the lefter posters.
The question I would ask of those who can remember is - does this feel like 1995 or 2008?
Certainly, I think in 1995 it already looked like the Tories were on their way out. In 2008, it looked bad for lab after the bottled election.
I still see Starmer as being in the mould of Kinnock or Howard - the guy who fixes the damage of the previous disastrous incumbent but not able to win.
Next election will be like 1992 or perhaps 2005.
Or 2010 or 1964. However it will not be 1997 definitely
At this point in the 2005 to 2010 Parliament LOTO Cameron had to a huge lead in the opinion polls and was cleaning up at local elections so I can't see 2023/2024 being a 2010.
1964... Maybe? But SKS is no Wilson that's for sure...
Cameron's lead then was closer to Starmer's now than Blair's pre 1997.
Cameron also lost votes to the LDs before the 2010 general election, Labour were little changed.
If the LD vote rises again it is likely to be at Tory rather than Labour expense, see the local elections in the Home counties.
In 1964 too there was a bigger final swing to the Liberals than Labour
Well nothing will happen with NIP until next year and chances are she won't even be Speaker after November, so...
As the tweet and responses point out, there is bipartisan opposition to any trade deal with the UK if it continues along its course.
But we know we aren’t getting a trade deal with the US anyway. So that’s a useful non-threat they can happily make and we can ignore.
That’s fine but it was a key part of the Brexit economic case, such as it was.
The ability to make deals was a key part of the Brexit economic case, not making a deal explicitly and solely with the USA.
Since we already have some deals and talks are quite advanced already on the CPTPP which would trump them all, that's a key part that is still going strong.
Its worth remembering that if Britain joins the CPTPP then that would be a bigger trade zone than the European Union - as well as a faster growing one.
Yeah, doing "trade deals with the rest of the world" was one of the key LEAVE pledges but I don't remember anyone specifically talking about a US/UK trade deal other than Obama flying in to tell us we'd be at the back of the queue?
Johnson is a lucky General...but still a dreadful Prime Minister.
He’s gonna win in 2024. I have a foresense
Thank you Lord Astor.
He might, but the economy among other things has got to look a whole lot better than it does now. Unless of course you are banking on a successful culture war from Big Dog.
I just have this weird eerie sense that he has the Luck of the Devil (also, by 2024 Sir Kir Royale will be 61, and even more boring than he is now)
Right now I expect the Bozzer to scrape home with a tiny Maj
I still think that's the favourite outcome. It seems a little curious that is a common view of many of the lefter posters.
The question I would ask of those who can remember is - does this feel like 1995 or 2008?
Certainly, I think in 1995 it already looked like the Tories were on their way out. In 2008, it looked bad for lab after the bottled election.
I still see Starmer as being in the mould of Kinnock or Howard - the guy who fixes the damage of the previous disastrous incumbent but not able to win.
Next election will be like 1992 or perhaps 2005.
Or 2010 or 1964. However it will not be 1997 definitely
At this point in the 2005 to 2010 Parliament LOTO Cameron had to a huge lead in the opinion polls and was cleaning up at local elections so I can't see 2023/2024 being a 2010.
1964... Maybe? But SKS is no Wilson that's for sure...
Cameron's lead then was closer to Starmer's now than Blair's pre 1997.
Cameron also lost votes to the LDs before the 2010 general election, Labour were little changed.
If the LD vote rises again it is likely to be at Tory rather than Labour expense, see the local elections in the Home counties
Yes but... there's just not that many seats for Lib-Dems to win AND we all know they will underperfom expectations at the next election because that's what they always do...
Well nothing will happen with NIP until next year and chances are she won't even be Speaker after November, so...
As the tweet and responses point out, there is bipartisan opposition to any trade deal with the UK if it continues along its course.
But we know we aren’t getting a trade deal with the US anyway. So that’s a useful non-threat they can happily make and we can ignore.
That’s fine but it was a key part of the Brexit economic case, such as it was.
The ability to make deals was a key part of the Brexit economic case, not making a deal explicitly and solely with the USA.
Since we already have some deals and talks are quite advanced already on the CPTPP which would trump them all, that's a key part that is still going strong.
Its worth remembering that if Britain joins the CPTPP then that would be a bigger trade zone than the European Union - as well as a faster growing one.
Regarding your last paragraph, it would be useful to explain how much of our trade currently goes to CPTPP, and the likely growth of this.
Less enlightened posters may mistakenly believe it could replace lost European trade any time this century.
Well nothing will happen with NIP until next year and chances are she won't even be Speaker after November, so...
As the tweet and responses point out, there is bipartisan opposition to any trade deal with the UK if it continues along its course.
But we know we aren’t getting a trade deal with the US anyway. So that’s a useful non-threat they can happily make and we can ignore.
That’s fine but it was a key part of the Brexit economic case, such as it was.
The ability to make deals was a key part of the Brexit economic case, not making a deal explicitly and solely with the USA.
Since we already have some deals and talks are quite advanced already on the CPTPP which would trump them all, that's a key part that is still going strong.
Its worth remembering that if Britain joins the CPTPP then that would be a bigger trade zone than the European Union - as well as a faster growing one.
What's the growth rate of CPTPP counries?
High. But our trade with them is v low, compared with Europe and the US.
CPTPP membership would be great, but its not going to turn around the UK’s rather dire trade performance.
Well nothing will happen with NIP until next year and chances are she won't even be Speaker after November, so...
As the tweet and responses point out, there is bipartisan opposition to any trade deal with the UK if it continues along its course.
But we know we aren’t getting a trade deal with the US anyway. So that’s a useful non-threat they can happily make and we can ignore.
That’s fine but it was a key part of the Brexit economic case, such as it was.
The ability to make deals was a key part of the Brexit economic case, not making a deal explicitly and solely with the USA.
Since we already have some deals and talks are quite advanced already on the CPTPP which would trump them all, that's a key part that is still going strong.
Its worth remembering that if Britain joins the CPTPP then that would be a bigger trade zone than the European Union - as well as a faster growing one.
What's the growth rate of CPTPP counries?
Fast but (even speaking as a Brexit supporter glad of his vote) not as relevant because of distance. It’s really useful, but not a complete game changer. We will still always want to trade some things closer to home.
Well nothing will happen with NIP until next year and chances are she won't even be Speaker after November, so...
As the tweet and responses point out, there is bipartisan opposition to any trade deal with the UK if it continues along its course.
But we know we aren’t getting a trade deal with the US anyway. So that’s a useful non-threat they can happily make and we can ignore.
That’s fine but it was a key part of the Brexit economic case, such as it was.
The ability to make deals was a key part of the Brexit economic case, not making a deal explicitly and solely with the USA.
Since we already have some deals and talks are quite advanced already on the CPTPP which would trump them all, that's a key part that is still going strong.
Its worth remembering that if Britain joins the CPTPP then that would be a bigger trade zone than the European Union - as well as a faster growing one.
Regarding your last paragraph, it would be useful to explain how much of our trade currently goes to CPTPP, and the likely growth of this.
Less enlightened posters may mistakenly believe it could replace lost European trade any time this century.
Absolutely it can.
UK trade with CPTPP nations is already growing at an average of 8% per annum and that's before we join even which could see that grow even further.
I would fully expect by the end of the century we absolutely will be trading more with Asia than with Europe. Its a denial of 21st century development trends to expect otherwise and looking forward to the growth opportunities of the 21st century instead of trying to roll the clock back to protectionist 1950s European ideas is one of the key strengths of Brexit.
Respectful of the will of the British people and of Brexit... Heh. Yes, Brexit was indeed a British choice.
The problem with disavowing the Northern Ireland Protocol is that while it might play well in the Express, it basically pisses off everyone else and makes the UK look ever more like a dodgy dealer.
Many will say so what, but the practical impact is the EU cannot trust the UK to maintain the integrity of the single market.
A solution to Northern Ireland is not possible with Boris Johnson in power, he simply cannot be trusted.
The problem with that is all the opponents of Boris Johnson have bet the house on the sanctity of "peace in Northern Ireland" and "the Good Friday Agreement".
All Boris has to do is turn it around now and say that he is putting the Good Friday Agreement first, and with one bound he is free.
The problem with this solution is that nobody else on planet Earth believes words he says.
Well nothing will happen with NIP until next year and chances are she won't even be Speaker after November, so...
As the tweet and responses point out, there is bipartisan opposition to any trade deal with the UK if it continues along its course.
But we know we aren’t getting a trade deal with the US anyway. So that’s a useful non-threat they can happily make and we can ignore.
That’s fine but it was a key part of the Brexit economic case, such as it was.
The ability to make deals was a key part of the Brexit economic case, not making a deal explicitly and solely with the USA.
Since we already have some deals and talks are quite advanced already on the CPTPP which would trump them all, that's a key part that is still going strong.
Its worth remembering that if Britain joins the CPTPP then that would be a bigger trade zone than the European Union - as well as a faster growing one.
What's the growth rate of CPTPP counries?
Fast but (even speaking as a Brexit supporter glad of his vote) not as relevant because of distance. It’s really useful, but not a complete game changer. We will still always want to trade some things closer to home.
Good to see this honesty.
Brexit is fine if you wish to make an argument over sovereignty. We can quarrel about real sovereignty versus theoretical sovereignty, and we can look at how sovereignty has fared since Brexit too.
The problem is that Brexit was sold as sunny economic uplands to boot, which was never ever going to be true.
Higher growth rates from a low base is the reality of the CPTPP.
Putting aside that the USA won’t be joining this anytime soon and if the UK did it would do so on terms already dictated by the current members , so in effect far removed from the taking back control guff .
Only in Leaver world do you trash trade with countries close to you and then chase scraps off the buffet table 10,000 miles away.
Respectful of the will of the British people and of Brexit... Heh. Yes, Brexit was indeed a British choice.
The problem with disavowing the Northern Ireland Protocol is that while it might play well in the Express, it basically pisses off everyone else and makes the UK look ever more like a dodgy dealer.
Many will say so what, but the practical impact is the EU cannot trust the UK to maintain the integrity of the single market.
A solution to Northern Ireland is not possible with Boris Johnson in power, he simply cannot be trusted.
The problem with that is all the opponents of Boris Johnson have bet the house on the sanctity of "peace in Northern Ireland" and "the Good Friday Agreement".
All Boris has to do is turn it around now and say that he is putting the Good Friday Agreement first, and with one bound he is free.
The problem with this solution is that nobody else on planet Earth believes words he says.
They don't need to. They need to see what he does, rather than what he says.
So far Brussels useful idiots have been keen to paint a rational solution whereby there's no Irish Sea border, no land border and we're not in the Single Market as a "unicorn".
But Boris can unilaterally create the unicorn. Invoke Article 16 and scrap the sea border and voila the unicorn is alive and visible.
Then what do his opponents do next. How do you slay the unicorn, once it is alive and visible to all?
Well nothing will happen with NIP until next year and chances are she won't even be Speaker after November, so...
As the tweet and responses point out, there is bipartisan opposition to any trade deal with the UK if it continues along its course.
But we know we aren’t getting a trade deal with the US anyway. So that’s a useful non-threat they can happily make and we can ignore.
That’s fine but it was a key part of the Brexit economic case, such as it was.
The ability to make deals was a key part of the Brexit economic case, not making a deal explicitly and solely with the USA.
Since we already have some deals and talks are quite advanced already on the CPTPP which would trump them all, that's a key part that is still going strong.
Its worth remembering that if Britain joins the CPTPP then that would be a bigger trade zone than the European Union - as well as a faster growing one.
Regarding your last paragraph, it would be useful to explain how much of our trade currently goes to CPTPP, and the likely growth of this.
Less enlightened posters may mistakenly believe it could replace lost European trade any time this century.
Absolutely it can.
UK trade with CPTPP nations is already growing at an average of 8% per annum and that's before we join even which could see that grow even further.
I would fully expect by the end of the century we absolutely will be trading more with Asia than with Europe. Its a denial of 21st century development trends to expect otherwise and looking forward to the growth opportunities of the 21st century instead of trying to roll the clock back to protectionist 1950s European ideas is one of the key strengths of Brexit.
I remain unconvinced we will ever see this Gray report other than perhaps some executive summary bullshit.
I doubt I will be alive when the 30 year rule expires and the report is finally made public.
The whole thing is becoming an establishment stitch up.
It is reported that Sue Gray is seeking to name senior civil servants but their unions and hr departments are resisting disclosure.
It would be ironic if the unions succeed in redacting the names of those at the centre of this
Why ironic? If unions are protecting the careers of its members, not serving the desire of others to know the names of those civil servants at centre of this, that’s hardly ironic.
Unfortunately though, a point of too much information being out has already been crossed, knowing some got 5 fpn, at same time knowing Boris got 1, Simon Case 0.
This is not remotely over is it. All that had happened today is it had taken a angry and bitter turn into a new direction, a new quite nastier thing.
You're scraping the bottom of the barrel raw now.
This has been done to death and even Keith was photographed drinking beer.
Unless there's some seriously shocking photos in the Gray report, worse than a Korma and Beer night, the public is looking at their electricity bills etc not bothered about Simon Case.
In practical terms it takes months to ship goods from east Asia to the UK, plus at some stage in the next couple of decades China may go the way of Russia. So you are just never going to have the same range of opportunities in goods trade as you would with Rotterdam. More practical is the kind of modern "trade" where you "import services", i.e. somebody does a job cheaper remotely. For obvious reasons this is controversial in the importing polity.
Higher growth rates from a low base is the reality of the CPTPP.
Putting aside that the USA won’t be joining this anytime soon and if the UK did it would do so on terms already dictated by the current members , so in effect far removed from the taking back control guff .
Only in Leaver world do you trash trade with countries close to you and then chase scraps off the buffet table 10,000 miles away.
In the 21st century distance matters less than ever before - and its only going to continue to matter less and less as time and technology moves on.
Most of our exports already don't go to the EU. That proportion is only rising.
Why stick your head in the sand, operating on 1950s protectionism and distance mattering - when the 21st century technology and trade and 21st century growth prospects are all in the Far East?
My Laptop I'm writing this message to you on was made in Asia not Europe. Trade is real and global and trying to turn your back on the East because its 'far away' isn't wise.
Johnson is a lucky General...but still a dreadful Prime Minister.
He’s gonna win in 2024. I have a foresense
Thank you Lord Astor.
He might, but the economy among other things has got to look a whole lot better than it does now. Unless of course you are banking on a successful culture war from Big Dog.
I just have this weird eerie sense that he has the Luck of the Devil (also, by 2024 Sir Kir Royale will be 61, and even more boring than he is now)
Right now I expect the Bozzer to scrape home with a tiny Maj
I still think that's the favourite outcome. It seems a little curious that is a common view of many of the lefter posters.
The question I would ask of those who can remember is - does this feel like 1995 or 2008?
Certainly, I think in 1995 it already looked like the Tories were on their way out. In 2008, it looked bad for lab after the bottled election.
I still see Starmer as being in the mould of Kinnock or Howard - the guy who fixes the damage of the previous disastrous incumbent but not able to win.
Next election will be like 1992 or perhaps 2005.
Or 2010 or 1964. However it will not be 1997 definitely
At this point in the 2005 to 2010 Parliament LOTO Cameron had to a huge lead in the opinion polls and was cleaning up at local elections so I can't see 2023/2024 being a 2010.
1964... Maybe? But SKS is no Wilson that's for sure...
Cameron's lead then was closer to Starmer's now than Blair's pre 1997.
Cameron also lost votes to the LDs before the 2010 general election, Labour were little changed.
If the LD vote rises again it is likely to be at Tory rather than Labour expense, see the local elections in the Home counties
Yes but... there's just not that many seats for Lib-Dems to win AND we all know they will underperfom expectations at the next election because that's what they always do...
It was the Tory to Liberal swing in 1964 in key Tory v Labour marginals which cost them the election and enabled Wilson to gain enough seats to become PM, not the Tory to Labour swing. The Tories voteshare was down 6% on 1959. Labour gained 59 seats despite a voteshare only 0.3% up on 1959, the Liberals only gained 3 seats despite their voteshare being 5.3% up on 1959
Well nothing will happen with NIP until next year and chances are she won't even be Speaker after November, so...
As the tweet and responses point out, there is bipartisan opposition to any trade deal with the UK if it continues along its course.
But we know we aren’t getting a trade deal with the US anyway. So that’s a useful non-threat they can happily make and we can ignore.
That’s fine but it was a key part of the Brexit economic case, such as it was.
The ability to make deals was a key part of the Brexit economic case, not making a deal explicitly and solely with the USA.
Since we already have some deals and talks are quite advanced already on the CPTPP which would trump them all, that's a key part that is still going strong.
Its worth remembering that if Britain joins the CPTPP then that would be a bigger trade zone than the European Union - as well as a faster growing one.
Regarding your last paragraph, it would be useful to explain how much of our trade currently goes to CPTPP, and the likely growth of this.
Less enlightened posters may mistakenly believe it could replace lost European trade any time this century.
Absolutely it can.
UK trade with CPTPP nations is already growing at an average of 8% per annum and that's before we join even which could see that grow even further.
I would fully expect by the end of the century we absolutely will be trading more with Asia than with Europe. Its a denial of 21st century development trends to expect otherwise and looking forward to the growth opportunities of the 21st century instead of trying to roll the clock back to protectionist 1950s European ideas is one of the key strengths of Brexit.
Meanwhile, in the real world…
In the real world the EU is a minority of our trade and falling.
In the real world more trade is heading to Asia annually and that is ratchetting in one direction only.
You might want to turn the clock back to the 1950s. I don't.
Higher growth rates from a low base is the reality of the CPTPP.
Putting aside that the USA won’t be joining this anytime soon and if the UK did it would do so on terms already dictated by the current members , so in effect far removed from the taking back control guff .
Only in Leaver world do you trash trade with countries close to you and then chase scraps off the buffet table 10,000 miles away.
In the 21st century distance matters less than ever before - and its only going to continue to matter less and less as time and technology moves on.
Most of our exports already don't go to the EU. That proportion is only rising.
Why stick your head in the sand, operating on 1950s protectionism and distance mattering - when the 21st century technology and trade and 21st century growth prospects are all in the Far East?
My Laptop I'm writing this message to you on was made in Asia not Europe. Trade is real and global and trying to turn your back on the East because its 'far away' isn't wise.
you get Asian-made laptops in Hamburg too
Indeed, trade is global, thanks for acknowledging that.
And you'll get British-made produce in Hamburg post-Brexit just as much as Asian-made goods. Meanwhile our trade opportunities lie in the East far more than Europe in the long-term. Brexit is going ahead of the curve.
Well nothing will happen with NIP until next year and chances are she won't even be Speaker after November, so...
As the tweet and responses point out, there is bipartisan opposition to any trade deal with the UK if it continues along its course.
But we know we aren’t getting a trade deal with the US anyway. So that’s a useful non-threat they can happily make and we can ignore.
That’s fine but it was a key part of the Brexit economic case, such as it was.
The ability to make deals was a key part of the Brexit economic case, not making a deal explicitly and solely with the USA.
Since we already have some deals and talks are quite advanced already on the CPTPP which would trump them all, that's a key part that is still going strong.
Its worth remembering that if Britain joins the CPTPP then that would be a bigger trade zone than the European Union - as well as a faster growing one.
What's the growth rate of CPTPP counries?
High. But our trade with them is v low, compared with Europe and the US.
CPTPP membership would be great, but its not going to turn around the UK’s rather dire trade performance.
What is the modern economic thinking on trade? Do we care about balance, or volume, or both? Back in Ye Olde Days, in the mid 20th century, I understand balance was considered very important, but is it now?
Well nothing will happen with NIP until next year and chances are she won't even be Speaker after November, so...
As the tweet and responses point out, there is bipartisan opposition to any trade deal with the UK if it continues along its course.
But we know we aren’t getting a trade deal with the US anyway. So that’s a useful non-threat they can happily make and we can ignore.
That’s fine but it was a key part of the Brexit economic case, such as it was.
The ability to make deals was a key part of the Brexit economic case, not making a deal explicitly and solely with the USA.
Since we already have some deals and talks are quite advanced already on the CPTPP which would trump them all, that's a key part that is still going strong.
Its worth remembering that if Britain joins the CPTPP then that would be a bigger trade zone than the European Union - as well as a faster growing one.
What's the growth rate of CPTPP counries?
It'll be higher than the EU, but the fact that Japan is (by some margin) the largest economy in it means it won't be that much higher.
Well nothing will happen with NIP until next year and chances are she won't even be Speaker after November, so...
As the tweet and responses point out, there is bipartisan opposition to any trade deal with the UK if it continues along its course.
But we know we aren’t getting a trade deal with the US anyway. So that’s a useful non-threat they can happily make and we can ignore.
That’s fine but it was a key part of the Brexit economic case, such as it was.
The ability to make deals was a key part of the Brexit economic case, not making a deal explicitly and solely with the USA.
Since we already have some deals and talks are quite advanced already on the CPTPP which would trump them all, that's a key part that is still going strong.
Its worth remembering that if Britain joins the CPTPP then that would be a bigger trade zone than the European Union - as well as a faster growing one.
What's the growth rate of CPTPP counries?
High. But our trade with them is v low, compared with Europe and the US.
CPTPP membership would be great, but its not going to turn around the UK’s rather dire trade performance.
What is the modern economic thinking on trade? Do we care about balance, or volume, or both? Back in Ye Olde Days, in the mid 20th century, I understand balance was considered very important, but is it now?
One doesn't care about balance when there is a firehose of money coming in to the UK to buy assets.
But one would be forced to care, should the situation reverse and foreigners were to become net sellers of UK assets.
Respectful of the will of the British people and of Brexit... Heh. Yes, Brexit was indeed a British choice.
The problem with disavowing the Northern Ireland Protocol is that while it might play well in the Express, it basically pisses off everyone else and makes the UK look ever more like a dodgy dealer.
Many will say so what, but the practical impact is the EU cannot trust the UK to maintain the integrity of the single market.
A solution to Northern Ireland is not possible with Boris Johnson in power, he simply cannot be trusted.
The problem with that is all the opponents of Boris Johnson have bet the house on the sanctity of "peace in Northern Ireland" and "the Good Friday Agreement".
All Boris has to do is turn it around now and say that he is putting the Good Friday Agreement first, and with one bound he is free.
The problem with this solution is that nobody else on planet Earth believes words he says.
They don't need to. They need to see what he does, rather than what he says.
So far Brussels useful idiots have been keen to paint a rational solution whereby there's no Irish Sea border, no land border and we're not in the Single Market as a "unicorn".
But Boris can unilaterally create the unicorn. Invoke Article 16 and scrap the sea border and voila the unicorn is alive and visible.
Then what do his opponents do next. How do you slay the unicorn, once it is alive and visible to all?
The problem with your national brand's being "edgy law-breaker" is that previously winnable battles for hearts and minds go against you.
For example, if a land border through Ireland were to be established by the EU, nobody in Ireland would blame the EU (as might have happened if it were in 2018, say). They would blame Boris because they are aware of him, and his character.
Higher growth rates from a low base is the reality of the CPTPP.
Putting aside that the USA won’t be joining this anytime soon and if the UK did it would do so on terms already dictated by the current members , so in effect far removed from the taking back control guff .
Only in Leaver world do you trash trade with countries close to you and then chase scraps off the buffet table 10,000 miles away.
In the 21st century distance matters less than ever before - and its only going to continue to matter less and less as time and technology moves on.
Most of our exports already don't go to the EU. That proportion is only rising.
Why stick your head in the sand, operating on 1950s protectionism and distance mattering - when the 21st century technology and trade and 21st century growth prospects are all in the Far East?
My Laptop I'm writing this message to you on was made in Asia not Europe. Trade is real and global and trying to turn your back on the East because its 'far away' isn't wise.
I’m not saying turn your back on Asian trade but there needs to be some realism in how much that can make up for compared to trading with your closest neighbours .
The government has made a conscious decision to lower trade volumes with the EU by the nature of the trade deal and is now having to chase deals with countries on the other side of the world.
Respectful of the will of the British people and of Brexit... Heh. Yes, Brexit was indeed a British choice.
The problem with disavowing the Northern Ireland Protocol is that while it might play well in the Express, it basically pisses off everyone else and makes the UK look ever more like a dodgy dealer.
Many will say so what, but the practical impact is the EU cannot trust the UK to maintain the integrity of the single market.
A solution to Northern Ireland is not possible with Boris Johnson in power, he simply cannot be trusted.
The problem with that is all the opponents of Boris Johnson have bet the house on the sanctity of "peace in Northern Ireland" and "the Good Friday Agreement".
All Boris has to do is turn it around now and say that he is putting the Good Friday Agreement first, and with one bound he is free.
The problem with this solution is that nobody else on planet Earth believes words he says.
They don't need to. They need to see what he does, rather than what he says.
So far Brussels useful idiots have been keen to paint a rational solution whereby there's no Irish Sea border, no land border and we're not in the Single Market as a "unicorn".
But Boris can unilaterally create the unicorn. Invoke Article 16 and scrap the sea border and voila the unicorn is alive and visible.
Then what do his opponents do next. How do you slay the unicorn, once it is alive and visible to all?
The problem with your national brand's being "edgy law-breaker" is that previously winnable battles for hearts and minds go against you.
For example, if a land border through Ireland were to be established by the EU, nobody in Ireland would blame the EU (as might have happened if it were in 2018, say). They would blame Boris because they are aware of him, and his character.
The EU can't impose a land border through Ireland, the EU doesn't have the power to do anything. Ireland would have to impose the border and they're adamant they're not going to and the EU can't force them to do so.
So if we don't, and Ireland don't, then who does? And in the impossible event that only EU officials are at the border and no British ones are, then how can that be our responsibility?
Since we're already out of the Single Market, the moment we invoke Article 16 and drop the Sea Border the EU either has to create the land border (which it can't) or the unicorn is alive and real. Once the unicorn is real, what can anyone do about it? How can anyone slay a unicorn?
Higher growth rates from a low base is the reality of the CPTPP.
Putting aside that the USA won’t be joining this anytime soon and if the UK did it would do so on terms already dictated by the current members , so in effect far removed from the taking back control guff .
Only in Leaver world do you trash trade with countries close to you and then chase scraps off the buffet table 10,000 miles away.
In the 21st century distance matters less than ever before - and its only going to continue to matter less and less as time and technology moves on.
Most of our exports already don't go to the EU. That proportion is only rising.
Why stick your head in the sand, operating on 1950s protectionism and distance mattering - when the 21st century technology and trade and 21st century growth prospects are all in the Far East?
My Laptop I'm writing this message to you on was made in Asia not Europe. Trade is real and global and trying to turn your back on the East because its 'far away' isn't wise.
you get Asian-made laptops in Hamburg too
Indeed, trade is global, thanks for acknowledging that.
And you'll get British-made produce in Hamburg post-Brexit just as much as Asian-made goods. Meanwhile our trade opportunities lie in the East far more than Europe in the long-term. Brexit is going ahead of the curve.
Still not clear on how Brexit improves things though, which is the question here. Hong Kong sells into Hamburg and Hastings alike. How are we tapping a new well here?
How does being in the EU help trade?
CPTPP lowers barriers to trade with those nations. Just as the Single Market lowers barriers to trade within the Single Market.
Higher growth rates from a low base is the reality of the CPTPP.
Putting aside that the USA won’t be joining this anytime soon and if the UK did it would do so on terms already dictated by the current members , so in effect far removed from the taking back control guff .
Only in Leaver world do you trash trade with countries close to you and then chase scraps off the buffet table 10,000 miles away.
In the 21st century distance matters less than ever before - and its only going to continue to matter less and less as time and technology moves on.
Most of our exports already don't go to the EU. That proportion is only rising.
Why stick your head in the sand, operating on 1950s protectionism and distance mattering - when the 21st century technology and trade and 21st century growth prospects are all in the Far East?
My Laptop I'm writing this message to you on was made in Asia not Europe. Trade is real and global and trying to turn your back on the East because its 'far away' isn't wise.
I’m not saying turn your back on Asian trade but there needs to be some realism in how much that can make up for compared to trading with your closest neighbours .
The government has made a conscious decision to lower trade volumes with the EU by the nature of the trade deal and is now having to chase deals with countries on the other side of the world.
Because the other side of the world is more important in the long-term.
The Times leader about GP’s avoiding prescribing sleeping pills feels like the most consequential of them all. Fascinating.
Can't see that - link? I've been taking nitrazepam (on the basic 5mg dose) for 20 years, without apparent side-effects or waning efficacy. It'd be irritating if I was made to stop.
The fact that she keeps referring to the "Good Friday Accords" just shows how detached she is from the details. She's just signalling for domestic reasons.
I remain unconvinced we will ever see this Gray report other than perhaps some executive summary bullshit.
I doubt I will be alive when the 30 year rule expires and the report is finally made public.
The whole thing is becoming an establishment stitch up.
It is reported that Sue Gray is seeking to name senior civil servants but their unions and hr departments are resisting disclosure.
It would be ironic if the unions succeed in redacting the names of those at the centre of this
Why ironic? If unions are protecting the careers of its members, not serving the desire of others to know the names of those civil servants at centre of this, that’s hardly ironic.
Unfortunately though, a point of too much information being out has already been crossed, knowing some got 5 fpn, at same time knowing Boris got 1, Simon Case 0.
This is not remotely over is it. All that had happened today is it had taken a angry and bitter turn into a new direction, a new quite nastier thing.
You're scraping the bottom of the barrel raw now.
This has been done to death and even Keith was photographed drinking beer.
Unless there's some seriously shocking photos in the Gray report, worse than a Korma and Beer night, the public is looking at their electricity bills etc not bothered about Simon Case.
I think I get it. Either you are trying to say “Watch out if you haven’t learned that tame Big Dogs/ Are the most dangerous of all. I say Big Dog, for all big dogs are not of the same sort; there is one kind with an amenable disposition – neither noisy, nor hateful, nor angry, but tame, obliging and gentle, following the young maids in the streets, even into their homes. Alas! Who does not know that these gentle big dogs are of all such creatures the most dangerous!"
Or Charles Perrault should sue the socks off you. 😆
If you have a car where the door opens and the car starts on a button because you have a token in your pocket, be aware that that signal can be amplified from some way away.
The 'SARA' attack is becoming less viable on modern cars from tier one OEMs (Porsche, etc) as they use UWB to sense the physical proximity of the key.
Higher growth rates from a low base is the reality of the CPTPP.
Putting aside that the USA won’t be joining this anytime soon and if the UK did it would do so on terms already dictated by the current members , so in effect far removed from the taking back control guff .
Only in Leaver world do you trash trade with countries close to you and then chase scraps off the buffet table 10,000 miles away.
In the 21st century distance matters less than ever before - and its only going to continue to matter less and less as time and technology moves on.
Most of our exports already don't go to the EU. That proportion is only rising.
Why stick your head in the sand, operating on 1950s protectionism and distance mattering - when the 21st century technology and trade and 21st century growth prospects are all in the Far East?
My Laptop I'm writing this message to you on was made in Asia not Europe. Trade is real and global and trying to turn your back on the East because its 'far away' isn't wise.
I’m not saying turn your back on Asian trade but there needs to be some realism in how much that can make up for compared to trading with your closest neighbours .
The government has made a conscious decision to lower trade volumes with the EU by the nature of the trade deal and is now having to chase deals with countries on the other side of the world.
Because the other side of the world is more important in the long-term.
You need to define important in the context of the UK.
Brexiters have already been schooled once (“Russia is unimportant; it’s a lot about Taiwan!) about geography.
From "I'm a Lib Dem, me" to gushing Borgasm because Big Dog has only be fined once is a hell of an arc.
it’s not Borgasm, it’s just very funny! Listen.
“ It had been thought that Johnson and his wife were quite likely to be fined over at least one further event – the gathering held in the Downing Street flat on the night Dominic Cummings quit. Loud Abba music was heard coming from the flat that night, and Carrie Johnson (who was delighted to see Cummings go) was said to be celebrating with friends who work as government advisers. Sources have claimed that they were there for a work meeting, and that the PM was interviewing one of the attendees about a potential job. “
Labour have now lost 2 leaders in Milliband and Starmer, and two elections, 2015 and 2024, due to mishaps with takeaway food! Is that not amazing?
Macron is toast. I’m on Melenchon at 80 and still confident of him, because he is just simply a smarter more agile politician than Le Pen. This is how it plays out. Last first round polls show nothing in it between Le Pen and Melenchon. Macron’s second round defeat is France “Brexit” moment. Every country is going to have some sort of we are the people and we want the drawbridge up to be great again, moment.
Good luck guessing even the date of the next election, let alone its result. You couldn't even spot the winner of the French election a week out when the incumbent was leading in the polls and had better approval ratings 🤷
Oh Farooq it’s a lie to say that post you quote was 1 week out, more like 2 months before.
8 days before, to be precise. So along with being notably poor at predicting the future, you seem to be a bit rubbish at predicting the past too.
Tonight I’m explaining what seems obvious to me, the whitewashed police investigation and pressure on Gray dangerous for the Tories, because there is real anger on some of the papers front pages tonight, no one knows how deep this anger at the whitewash of those in the leadership group goes into how voters see it, or if they do, do they care, like St Bart tells me, merely shrug and then look for shrapnel in their pocket ahead of pub opening - or if this becomes the media narrative and impressions that will stick right through into the general election. But it’s not over now like some posts mistakenly thought.
Whilst I’m trying to explain these points, you are trying to discredit all the thought and analysis poured into my posts? I just can’t work out what side your on? 🤷♀️
I’m from Yorkshire Farooq! And currently in Yorkshire waiting to go to the game. This means I’m bluff! You just have to roll with it.
The Times leader about GP’s avoiding prescribing sleeping pills feels like the most consequential of them all. Fascinating.
Can't see that - link? I've been taking nitrazepam (on the basic 5mg dose) for 20 years, without apparent side-effects or waning efficacy. It'd be irritating if I was made to stop.
Paywall might scupper me linking but it’s tomorrow’s headline:
Well nothing will happen with NIP until next year and chances are she won't even be Speaker after November, so...
As the tweet and responses point out, there is bipartisan opposition to any trade deal with the UK if it continues along its course.
But we know we aren’t getting a trade deal with the US anyway. So that’s a useful non-threat they can happily make and we can ignore.
That’s fine but it was a key part of the Brexit economic case, such as it was.
The ability to make deals was a key part of the Brexit economic case, not making a deal explicitly and solely with the USA.
Since we already have some deals and talks are quite advanced already on the CPTPP which would trump them all, that's a key part that is still going strong.
Its worth remembering that if Britain joins the CPTPP then that would be a bigger trade zone than the European Union - as well as a faster growing one.
What's the growth rate of CPTPP counries?
Fast but (even speaking as a Brexit supporter glad of his vote) not as relevant because of distance. It’s really useful, but not a complete game changer. We will still always want to trade some things closer to home.
I was also interested in the baseline.
Every time I get paid my bank balance's "growth" for that day is faster than Jeff Bezos's growth rate. But only an idiot would think I was catching him up.
The dirty secret about economic growth is that it's easier to achieve when you're poorer because of the slipstream effect. Hitching your wagon to growing markets makes a lot of superficial sense, but by the time the market has grown to be comparable to what's on your doorstep, isn't it going to be levelling off to a more "Western" growth rate?
The problem is that the EU is poorer too and isn't growing.
Since 1992 when the EU replaced the EEC, the EU has been growing slower than most of the rest of the developed world and is falling backwards not going forwards.
GDP per capita in the Republic of Korea is not just growing faster by far than GDP per capita in the Eurozone, but its been catching up and will probably overtake either this year or in the next couple of years.
Well nothing will happen with NIP until next year and chances are she won't even be Speaker after November, so...
As the tweet and responses point out, there is bipartisan opposition to any trade deal with the UK if it continues along its course.
But we know we aren’t getting a trade deal with the US anyway. So that’s a useful non-threat they can happily make and we can ignore.
That’s fine but it was a key part of the Brexit economic case, such as it was.
The ability to make deals was a key part of the Brexit economic case, not making a deal explicitly and solely with the USA.
Since we already have some deals and talks are quite advanced already on the CPTPP which would trump them all, that's a key part that is still going strong.
Its worth remembering that if Britain joins the CPTPP then that would be a bigger trade zone than the European Union - as well as a faster growing one.
What's the growth rate of CPTPP counries?
Fast but (even speaking as a Brexit supporter glad of his vote) not as relevant because of distance. It’s really useful, but not a complete game changer. We will still always want to trade some things closer to home.
I was also interested in the baseline.
Every time I get paid my bank balance's "growth" for that day is faster than Jeff Bezos's growth rate. But only an idiot would think I was catching him up.
The dirty secret about economic growth is that it's easier to achieve when you're poorer because of the slipstream effect. Hitching your wagon to growing markets makes a lot of superficial sense, but by the time the market has grown to be comparable to what's on your doorstep, isn't it going to be levelling off to a more "Western" growth rate?
The problem is that the EU is poorer too and isn't growing.
Since 1992 when the EU replaced the EEC, the EU has been growing slower than most of the rest of the developed world and is falling backwards not going forwards.
GDP per capita in the Republic of Korea is not just growing faster by far than GDP per capita in the Eurozone, but its been catching up and will probably overtake either this year or in the next couple of years.
How about Japan? Come to think of it, how’s British performance of late?
Well nothing will happen with NIP until next year and chances are she won't even be Speaker after November, so...
As the tweet and responses point out, there is bipartisan opposition to any trade deal with the UK if it continues along its course.
But we know we aren’t getting a trade deal with the US anyway. So that’s a useful non-threat they can happily make and we can ignore.
That’s fine but it was a key part of the Brexit economic case, such as it was.
The ability to make deals was a key part of the Brexit economic case, not making a deal explicitly and solely with the USA.
Since we already have some deals and talks are quite advanced already on the CPTPP which would trump them all, that's a key part that is still going strong.
Its worth remembering that if Britain joins the CPTPP then that would be a bigger trade zone than the European Union - as well as a faster growing one.
What's the growth rate of CPTPP counries?
Fast but (even speaking as a Brexit supporter glad of his vote) not as relevant because of distance. It’s really useful, but not a complete game changer. We will still always want to trade some things closer to home.
I was also interested in the baseline.
Every time I get paid my bank balance's "growth" for that day is faster than Jeff Bezos's growth rate. But only an idiot would think I was catching him up.
The dirty secret about economic growth is that it's easier to achieve when you're poorer because of the slipstream effect. Hitching your wagon to growing markets makes a lot of superficial sense, but by the time the market has grown to be comparable to what's on your doorstep, isn't it going to be levelling off to a more "Western" growth rate?
The problem is that the EU is poorer too and isn't growing.
Since 1992 when the EU replaced the EEC, the EU has been growing slower than most of the rest of the developed world and is falling backwards not going forwards.
GDP per capita in the Republic of Korea is not just growing faster by far than GDP per capita in the Eurozone, but its been catching up and will probably overtake either this year or in the next couple of years.
How about Japan? Come to think of it, how’s British performance of late?
Oh.
Japan is a very unique situation due to its decades long battle with deflation, something I don't think anyone expects Britain to be dealing with, do you?
Britain's performance of late? Well its too soon to tell, but we were the fastest growing economy in the G7 last year weren't we? It will take time to tell which of us is right.
From "I'm a Lib Dem, me" to gushing Borgasm because Big Dog has only be fined once is a hell of an arc.
it’s not Borgasm, it’s just very funny! Listen.
“ It had been thought that Johnson and his wife were quite likely to be fined over at least one further event – the gathering held in the Downing Street flat on the night Dominic Cummings quit. Loud Abba music was heard coming from the flat that night, and Carrie Johnson (who was delighted to see Cummings go) was said to be celebrating with friends who work as government advisers. Sources have claimed that they were there for a work meeting, and that the PM was interviewing one of the attendees about a potential job. “
Labour have now lost 2 leaders in Milliband and Starmer, and two elections, 2015 and 2024, due to mishaps with takeaway food! Is that not amazing?
Macron is toast. I’m on Melenchon at 80 and still confident of him, because he is just simply a smarter more agile politician than Le Pen. This is how it plays out. Last first round polls show nothing in it between Le Pen and Melenchon. Macron’s second round defeat is France “Brexit” moment. Every country is going to have some sort of we are the people and we want the drawbridge up to be great again, moment.
Good luck guessing even the date of the next election, let alone its result. You couldn't even spot the winner of the French election a week out when the incumbent was leading in the polls and had better approval ratings 🤷
Oh Farooq it’s a lie to say that post you quote was 1 week out, more like 2 months before.
8 days before, to be precise. So along with being notably poor at predicting the future, you seem to be a bit rubbish at predicting the past too.
Tonight I’m explaining what seems obvious to me, the whitewashed police investigation and pressure on Gray dangerous for the Tories, because there is real anger on some of the papers front pages tonight, no one knows how deep this anger at the whitewash of those in the leadership group goes into how voters see it, or if they do, do they care, like St Bart tells me, merely shrug and then look for shrapnel in their pocket ahead of pub opening - or if this becomes the media narrative and impressions that will stick right through into the general election. But it’s not over now like some posts mistakenly thought.
Whilst I’m trying to explain these points, you are trying to discredit all the thought and analysis poured into my posts? I just can’t work out what side your on? 🤷♀️
I’m from Yorkshire Farooq! And currently in Yorkshire waiting to go to the game. This means I’m bluff! You just have to roll with it.
I'm on the opposite side to those whose predictions are idiotically strident despite having been very clearly abased by similarly forthright claims that were obviously going to be wrong. It's a little thing I do. I like to prick the aura of those who project misplaced confidence in their own abilities. I do it for the benefit of those who might read them and be swept up by the surety and who might not have noticed that the record of achievement is short of the bluster.
I don't like people like you or Boris Johnson. You aren't humble or self aware enough.
🧌
I’ve been waiting to post that new emoji for a long time 🤭
Well nothing will happen with NIP until next year and chances are she won't even be Speaker after November, so...
As the tweet and responses point out, there is bipartisan opposition to any trade deal with the UK if it continues along its course.
But we know we aren’t getting a trade deal with the US anyway. So that’s a useful non-threat they can happily make and we can ignore.
That’s fine but it was a key part of the Brexit economic case, such as it was.
The ability to make deals was a key part of the Brexit economic case, not making a deal explicitly and solely with the USA.
Since we already have some deals and talks are quite advanced already on the CPTPP which would trump them all, that's a key part that is still going strong.
Its worth remembering that if Britain joins the CPTPP then that would be a bigger trade zone than the European Union - as well as a faster growing one.
What's the growth rate of CPTPP counries?
Fast but (even speaking as a Brexit supporter glad of his vote) not as relevant because of distance. It’s really useful, but not a complete game changer. We will still always want to trade some things closer to home.
Good to see this honesty.
Brexit is fine if you wish to make an argument over sovereignty. We can quarrel about real sovereignty versus theoretical sovereignty, and we can look at how sovereignty has fared since Brexit too.
The problem is that Brexit was sold as sunny economic uplands to boot, which was never ever going to be true.
Those of us whose primary motivation was sovereignty were the ones that tipped the scale, I’d argue. We’d not have voted to leave pre-Lisbon and our pencils hovered over the box. Many would have been like me and hoped for consensus and an EEA “parking space” for a while, but history came at us quickly and the only game in town (other than remaining) was a hard Brexit. We were also hardened through abuse from remainers (yes brexiteers abused them too).
But in the long run our place in Europe will settle down (the invasion of Ukraine has helped some healing, though no one would have wished it on Ukraine) and we’ll never go back. Hence I’m still happy with my vote.
But facts are facts, and on pacific trade, you’re broadly right. It matters, but it will never displace that which is just over the channel for a lot of things.
Well nothing will happen with NIP until next year and chances are she won't even be Speaker after November, so...
As the tweet and responses point out, there is bipartisan opposition to any trade deal with the UK if it continues along its course.
But we know we aren’t getting a trade deal with the US anyway. So that’s a useful non-threat they can happily make and we can ignore.
That’s fine but it was a key part of the Brexit economic case, such as it was.
The ability to make deals was a key part of the Brexit economic case, not making a deal explicitly and solely with the USA.
Since we already have some deals and talks are quite advanced already on the CPTPP which would trump them all, that's a key part that is still going strong.
Its worth remembering that if Britain joins the CPTPP then that would be a bigger trade zone than the European Union - as well as a faster growing one.
What's the growth rate of CPTPP counries?
Fast but (even speaking as a Brexit supporter glad of his vote) not as relevant because of distance. It’s really useful, but not a complete game changer. We will still always want to trade some things closer to home.
I was also interested in the baseline.
Every time I get paid my bank balance's "growth" for that day is faster than Jeff Bezos's growth rate. But only an idiot would think I was catching him up.
The dirty secret about economic growth is that it's easier to achieve when you're poorer because of the slipstream effect. Hitching your wagon to growing markets makes a lot of superficial sense, but by the time the market has grown to be comparable to what's on your doorstep, isn't it going to be levelling off to a more "Western" growth rate?
The problem is that the EU is poorer too and isn't growing.
Since 1992 when the EU replaced the EEC, the EU has been growing slower than most of the rest of the developed world and is falling backwards not going forwards.
GDP per capita in the Republic of Korea is not just growing faster by far than GDP per capita in the Eurozone, but its been catching up and will probably overtake either this year or in the next couple of years.
How about Japan? Come to think of it, how’s British performance of late?
Oh.
Japan is a very unique situation due to its decades long battle with deflation, something I don't think anyone expects Britain to be dealing with, do you?
Britain's performance of late? Well its too soon to tell, but we were the fastest growing economy in the G7 last year weren't we? It will take time to tell which of us is right.
Post early-Covid bounceback growth rates need to be treated the same as Scottish subsamples.
Of course they do.
If you want to take decade-long pre-pandemic view instead then in the pre-pandemic decade of 2010-2019 the UK grew faster per capita than the Eurozone. Despite the referendum in the middle of that decade, if it caused any 'damage' it was more than absorbed in the decade's data.
And that's despite the fact that the Euro Area is behind the UK so should be growing faster you'd have thought on your slipstream theory.
Nadine Dorries claims 96% (yes 96%) of consultation responses were in favour of selling off Channel 4.
I went to bed in Blighty and woke up in Putin's Russia.
Come on, responders were given every chance. Ok, the response had to be hand delivered to a post box in the basement of a disused DCMS site in Croydon in a room marked “beware of the leopard” but if wannabe consultation responders won’t take an interest in the process then that’s their look out.
Well nothing will happen with NIP until next year and chances are she won't even be Speaker after November, so...
As the tweet and responses point out, there is bipartisan opposition to any trade deal with the UK if it continues along its course.
But we know we aren’t getting a trade deal with the US anyway. So that’s a useful non-threat they can happily make and we can ignore.
That’s fine but it was a key part of the Brexit economic case, such as it was.
The ability to make deals was a key part of the Brexit economic case, not making a deal explicitly and solely with the USA.
Since we already have some deals and talks are quite advanced already on the CPTPP which would trump them all, that's a key part that is still going strong.
Its worth remembering that if Britain joins the CPTPP then that would be a bigger trade zone than the European Union - as well as a faster growing one.
What's the growth rate of CPTPP counries?
Fast but (even speaking as a Brexit supporter glad of his vote) not as relevant because of distance. It’s really useful, but not a complete game changer. We will still always want to trade some things closer to home.
I was also interested in the baseline.
Every time I get paid my bank balance's "growth" for that day is faster than Jeff Bezos's growth rate. But only an idiot would think I was catching him up.
The dirty secret about economic growth is that it's easier to achieve when you're poorer because of the slipstream effect. Hitching your wagon to growing markets makes a lot of superficial sense, but by the time the market has grown to be comparable to what's on your doorstep, isn't it going to be levelling off to a more "Western" growth rate?
The problem is that the EU is poorer too and isn't growing.
Since 1992 when the EU replaced the EEC, the EU has been growing slower than most of the rest of the developed world and is falling backwards not going forwards.
GDP per capita in the Republic of Korea is not just growing faster by far than GDP per capita in the Eurozone, but its been catching up and will probably overtake either this year or in the next couple of years.
As for your comment about South Korea, why are you suddenly cherry picking a country that's outside both the EU and CPTPP? Don't do a HYUFD on me, you are way better than that.
The EU absolutely is "poorer". In the 1980s despite being a lot smaller then prior to multiple expansions it was in a famous speech by Margaret Thatcher a trade zone "bigger than the United States". Its not anymore though, despite the fact the EU has expanded repeatedly and the USA hasn't yet added a new State it is now a lot smaller than the USA. Indeed it had already fallen a long way behind before we left too.
US GDP per capita $63k Euro Area GDP per capita $35k
As for why I gave the example of Korea, the conversation expanded from CPTPP to Asia in general, and whether nations there are growing just due to the "slipstream" effect so I used them as an example, because they're coincidentally at the crossover point. Their GDP per capita is $34k versus $35k in the Euro Area, so if there were just a "slipstream" effect then that should be clearly visible by now and their growth should have halted over the past decade, but it hasn't.
Oh and Korea has followed the UK in announcing it is seeking accession to the CPTPP.
Respectful of the will of the British people and of Brexit... Heh. Yes, Brexit was indeed a British choice.
The problem with disavowing the Northern Ireland Protocol is that while it might play well in the Express, it basically pisses off everyone else and makes the UK look ever more like a dodgy dealer.
Many will say so what, but the practical impact is the EU cannot trust the UK to maintain the integrity of the single market.
A solution to Northern Ireland is not possible with Boris Johnson in power, he simply cannot be trusted.
The problem with that is all the opponents of Boris Johnson have bet the house on the sanctity of "peace in Northern Ireland" and "the Good Friday Agreement".
All Boris has to do is turn it around now and say that he is putting the Good Friday Agreement first, and with one bound he is free.
The problem with this solution is that nobody else on planet Earth believes words he says.
They don't need to. They need to see what he does, rather than what he says.
So far Brussels useful idiots have been keen to paint a rational solution whereby there's no Irish Sea border, no land border and we're not in the Single Market as a "unicorn".
But Boris can unilaterally create the unicorn. Invoke Article 16 and scrap the sea border and voila the unicorn is alive and visible.
Then what do his opponents do next. How do you slay the unicorn, once it is alive and visible to all?
The problem with your national brand's being "edgy law-breaker" is that previously winnable battles for hearts and minds go against you.
For example, if a land border through Ireland were to be established by the EU, nobody in Ireland would blame the EU (as might have happened if it were in 2018, say). They would blame Boris because they are aware of him, and his character.
The EU can't impose a land border through Ireland, the EU doesn't have the power to do anything. Ireland would have to impose the border and they're adamant they're not going to and the EU can't force them to do so.
So if we don't, and Ireland don't, then who does? And in the impossible event that only EU officials are at the border and no British ones are, then how can that be our responsibility?
Since we're already out of the Single Market, the moment we invoke Article 16 and drop the Sea Border the EU either has to create the land border (which it can't) or the unicorn is alive and real. Once the unicorn is real, what can anyone do about it? How can anyone slay a unicorn?
Well nothing will happen with NIP until next year and chances are she won't even be Speaker after November, so...
As the tweet and responses point out, there is bipartisan opposition to any trade deal with the UK if it continues along its course.
But we know we aren’t getting a trade deal with the US anyway. So that’s a useful non-threat they can happily make and we can ignore.
That’s fine but it was a key part of the Brexit economic case, such as it was.
The ability to make deals was a key part of the Brexit economic case, not making a deal explicitly and solely with the USA.
Since we already have some deals and talks are quite advanced already on the CPTPP which would trump them all, that's a key part that is still going strong.
Its worth remembering that if Britain joins the CPTPP then that would be a bigger trade zone than the European Union - as well as a faster growing one.
What's the growth rate of CPTPP counries?
Fast but (even speaking as a Brexit supporter glad of his vote) not as relevant because of distance. It’s really useful, but not a complete game changer. We will still always want to trade some things closer to home.
I was also interested in the baseline.
Every time I get paid my bank balance's "growth" for that day is faster than Jeff Bezos's growth rate. But only an idiot would think I was catching him up.
The dirty secret about economic growth is that it's easier to achieve when you're poorer because of the slipstream effect. Hitching your wagon to growing markets makes a lot of superficial sense, but by the time the market has grown to be comparable to what's on your doorstep, isn't it going to be levelling off to a more "Western" growth rate?
The problem is that the EU is poorer too and isn't growing.
Since 1992 when the EU replaced the EEC, the EU has been growing slower than most of the rest of the developed world and is falling backwards not going forwards.
GDP per capita in the Republic of Korea is not just growing faster by far than GDP per capita in the Eurozone, but its been catching up and will probably overtake either this year or in the next couple of years.
As for your comment about South Korea, why are you suddenly cherry picking a country that's outside both the EU and CPTPP? Don't do a HYUFD on me, you are way better than that.
The EU absolutely is "poorer". In the 1980s despite being a lot smaller then prior to multiple expansions it was in a famous speech by Margaret Thatcher a trade zone "bigger than the United States". Its not anymore though, despite the fact the EU has expanded repeatedly and the USA hasn't yet added a new State a lot smaller than the USA. Indeed it had already fallen a long way behind before we left too.
US GDP per capita $63k Euro Area GDP per capita $35k
As for why I gave the example of Korea, the conversation expanded from CPTPP to Asia in general, and whether nations there are growing just due to the "slipstream" effect so I used them as an example, because they're coincidentally at the crossover point. Their GDP per capita is $34k versus $35k in the Euro Area, so if there were just a "slipstream" effect then that should be clearly visible by now and their growth should have halted over the past decade, but it hasn't.
Oh and Korea has followed the UK in announcing it is seeking accession to the CPTPP.
The EU is relatively poorer. It is a large developed country, with a low population growth rate. (The same, of course, can be said of Japan.)
It (and Japan) has still got absolutely richer in the last few decades - just less quickly than younger or poorer countries.
That said, I suspect South Korea (and Taiwan) have now reached levels where their economic growth is going to slow sharply. Demographic headwinds mean that they will need to spend ever increasing portions of their earnings in looking after old people. They - basically - are the next Japan or Italy.
Respectful of the will of the British people and of Brexit... Heh. Yes, Brexit was indeed a British choice.
The problem with disavowing the Northern Ireland Protocol is that while it might play well in the Express, it basically pisses off everyone else and makes the UK look ever more like a dodgy dealer.
Many will say so what, but the practical impact is the EU cannot trust the UK to maintain the integrity of the single market.
A solution to Northern Ireland is not possible with Boris Johnson in power, he simply cannot be trusted.
The problem with that is all the opponents of Boris Johnson have bet the house on the sanctity of "peace in Northern Ireland" and "the Good Friday Agreement".
All Boris has to do is turn it around now and say that he is putting the Good Friday Agreement first, and with one bound he is free.
The problem with this solution is that nobody else on planet Earth believes words he says.
They don't need to. They need to see what he does, rather than what he says.
So far Brussels useful idiots have been keen to paint a rational solution whereby there's no Irish Sea border, no land border and we're not in the Single Market as a "unicorn".
But Boris can unilaterally create the unicorn. Invoke Article 16 and scrap the sea border and voila the unicorn is alive and visible.
Then what do his opponents do next. How do you slay the unicorn, once it is alive and visible to all?
The problem with your national brand's being "edgy law-breaker" is that previously winnable battles for hearts and minds go against you.
For example, if a land border through Ireland were to be established by the EU, nobody in Ireland would blame the EU (as might have happened if it were in 2018, say). They would blame Boris because they are aware of him, and his character.
The EU can't impose a land border through Ireland, the EU doesn't have the power to do anything. Ireland would have to impose the border and they're adamant they're not going to and the EU can't force them to do so.
So if we don't, and Ireland don't, then who does? And in the impossible event that only EU officials are at the border and no British ones are, then how can that be our responsibility?
Since we're already out of the Single Market, the moment we invoke Article 16 and drop the Sea Border the EU either has to create the land border (which it can't) or the unicorn is alive and real. Once the unicorn is real, what can anyone do about it? How can anyone slay a unicorn?
Northern Ireland voted to Remain by 56% to 44%.
Liverpool voted to Remain by 58% to 42%.
The vote was across the whole of the UK, not just Liverpool or NI though.
Well nothing will happen with NIP until next year and chances are she won't even be Speaker after November, so...
As the tweet and responses point out, there is bipartisan opposition to any trade deal with the UK if it continues along its course.
But we know we aren’t getting a trade deal with the US anyway. So that’s a useful non-threat they can happily make and we can ignore.
That’s fine but it was a key part of the Brexit economic case, such as it was.
The ability to make deals was a key part of the Brexit economic case, not making a deal explicitly and solely with the USA.
Since we already have some deals and talks are quite advanced already on the CPTPP which would trump them all, that's a key part that is still going strong.
Its worth remembering that if Britain joins the CPTPP then that would be a bigger trade zone than the European Union - as well as a faster growing one.
What's the growth rate of CPTPP counries?
Fast but (even speaking as a Brexit supporter glad of his vote) not as relevant because of distance. It’s really useful, but not a complete game changer. We will still always want to trade some things closer to home.
I was also interested in the baseline.
Every time I get paid my bank balance's "growth" for that day is faster than Jeff Bezos's growth rate. But only an idiot would think I was catching him up.
The dirty secret about economic growth is that it's easier to achieve when you're poorer because of the slipstream effect. Hitching your wagon to growing markets makes a lot of superficial sense, but by the time the market has grown to be comparable to what's on your doorstep, isn't it going to be levelling off to a more "Western" growth rate?
The problem is that the EU is poorer too and isn't growing.
Since 1992 when the EU replaced the EEC, the EU has been growing slower than most of the rest of the developed world and is falling backwards not going forwards.
GDP per capita in the Republic of Korea is not just growing faster by far than GDP per capita in the Eurozone, but its been catching up and will probably overtake either this year or in the next couple of years.
As for your comment about South Korea, why are you suddenly cherry picking a country that's outside both the EU and CPTPP? Don't do a HYUFD on me, you are way better than that.
The EU absolutely is "poorer". In the 1980s despite being a lot smaller then prior to multiple expansions it was in a famous speech by Margaret Thatcher a trade zone "bigger than the United States". Its not anymore though, despite the fact the EU has expanded repeatedly and the USA hasn't yet added a new State a lot smaller than the USA. Indeed it had already fallen a long way behind before we left too.
US GDP per capita $63k Euro Area GDP per capita $35k
As for why I gave the example of Korea, the conversation expanded from CPTPP to Asia in general, and whether nations there are growing just due to the "slipstream" effect so I used them as an example, because they're coincidentally at the crossover point. Their GDP per capita is $34k versus $35k in the Euro Area, so if there were just a "slipstream" effect then that should be clearly visible by now and their growth should have halted over the past decade, but it hasn't.
Oh and Korea has followed the UK in announcing it is seeking accession to the CPTPP.
The EU is relatively poorer. It is a large developed country, with a low population growth rate. (The same, of course, can be said of Japan.)
It (and Japan) has still got absolutely richer in the last few decades - just less quickly than younger or poorer countries.
That said, I suspect South Korea (and Taiwan) have now reached levels where their economic growth is going to slow sharply. Demographic headwinds mean that they will need to spend ever increasing portions of their earnings in looking after old people. They - basically - are the next Japan or Italy.
That's an interesting thought, someone mentioned earlier their distaste at seeing old people working in the USA, but could the fact that people do continue working much more over there be a factor in why American growth has so vastly exceeded European growth in the past few decades?
Well nothing will happen with NIP until next year and chances are she won't even be Speaker after November, so...
As the tweet and responses point out, there is bipartisan opposition to any trade deal with the UK if it continues along its course.
But we know we aren’t getting a trade deal with the US anyway. So that’s a useful non-threat they can happily make and we can ignore.
That’s fine but it was a key part of the Brexit economic case, such as it was.
The ability to make deals was a key part of the Brexit economic case, not making a deal explicitly and solely with the USA.
Since we already have some deals and talks are quite advanced already on the CPTPP which would trump them all, that's a key part that is still going strong.
Its worth remembering that if Britain joins the CPTPP then that would be a bigger trade zone than the European Union - as well as a faster growing one.
What's the growth rate of CPTPP counries?
Fast but (even speaking as a Brexit supporter glad of his vote) not as relevant because of distance. It’s really useful, but not a complete game changer. We will still always want to trade some things closer to home.
I was also interested in the baseline.
Every time I get paid my bank balance's "growth" for that day is faster than Jeff Bezos's growth rate. But only an idiot would think I was catching him up.
The dirty secret about economic growth is that it's easier to achieve when you're poorer because of the slipstream effect. Hitching your wagon to growing markets makes a lot of superficial sense, but by the time the market has grown to be comparable to what's on your doorstep, isn't it going to be levelling off to a more "Western" growth rate?
The problem is that the EU is poorer too and isn't growing.
Since 1992 when the EU replaced the EEC, the EU has been growing slower than most of the rest of the developed world and is falling backwards not going forwards.
GDP per capita in the Republic of Korea is not just growing faster by far than GDP per capita in the Eurozone, but its been catching up and will probably overtake either this year or in the next couple of years.
As for your comment about South Korea, why are you suddenly cherry picking a country that's outside both the EU and CPTPP? Don't do a HYUFD on me, you are way better than that.
The EU absolutely is "poorer". In the 1980s despite being a lot smaller then prior to multiple expansions it was in a famous speech by Margaret Thatcher a trade zone "bigger than the United States". Its not anymore though, despite the fact the EU has expanded repeatedly and the USA hasn't yet added a new State a lot smaller than the USA. Indeed it had already fallen a long way behind before we left too.
US GDP per capita $63k Euro Area GDP per capita $35k
As for why I gave the example of Korea, the conversation expanded from CPTPP to Asia in general, and whether nations there are growing just due to the "slipstream" effect so I used them as an example, because they're coincidentally at the crossover point. Their GDP per capita is $34k versus $35k in the Euro Area, so if there were just a "slipstream" effect then that should be clearly visible by now and their growth should have halted over the past decade, but it hasn't.
Oh and Korea has followed the UK in announcing it is seeking accession to the CPTPP.
The EU is relatively poorer. It is a large developed country, with a low population growth rate. (The same, of course, can be said of Japan.)
It (and Japan) has still got absolutely richer in the last few decades - just less quickly than younger or poorer countries.
That said, I suspect South Korea (and Taiwan) have now reached levels where their economic growth is going to slow sharply. Demographic headwinds mean that they will need to spend ever increasing portions of their earnings in looking after old people. They - basically - are the next Japan or Italy.
That's an interesting thought, someone mentioned earlier their distaste at seeing old people working in the USA, but could the fact that people do continue working much more over there be a factor in why American growth has so vastly exceeded European growth in the past few decades?
They have a much higher birthrate and much higher immigration too.
Respectful of the will of the British people and of Brexit... Heh. Yes, Brexit was indeed a British choice.
The problem with disavowing the Northern Ireland Protocol is that while it might play well in the Express, it basically pisses off everyone else and makes the UK look ever more like a dodgy dealer.
Many will say so what, but the practical impact is the EU cannot trust the UK to maintain the integrity of the single market.
A solution to Northern Ireland is not possible with Boris Johnson in power, he simply cannot be trusted.
The problem with that is all the opponents of Boris Johnson have bet the house on the sanctity of "peace in Northern Ireland" and "the Good Friday Agreement".
All Boris has to do is turn it around now and say that he is putting the Good Friday Agreement first, and with one bound he is free.
The problem with this solution is that nobody else on planet Earth believes words he says.
They don't need to. They need to see what he does, rather than what he says.
So far Brussels useful idiots have been keen to paint a rational solution whereby there's no Irish Sea border, no land border and we're not in the Single Market as a "unicorn".
But Boris can unilaterally create the unicorn. Invoke Article 16 and scrap the sea border and voila the unicorn is alive and visible.
Then what do his opponents do next. How do you slay the unicorn, once it is alive and visible to all?
The problem with your national brand's being "edgy law-breaker" is that previously winnable battles for hearts and minds go against you.
For example, if a land border through Ireland were to be established by the EU, nobody in Ireland would blame the EU (as might have happened if it were in 2018, say). They would blame Boris because they are aware of him, and his character.
The EU can't impose a land border through Ireland, the EU doesn't have the power to do anything. Ireland would have to impose the border and they're adamant they're not going to and the EU can't force them to do so.
So if we don't, and Ireland don't, then who does? And in the impossible event that only EU officials are at the border and no British ones are, then how can that be our responsibility?
Since we're already out of the Single Market, the moment we invoke Article 16 and drop the Sea Border the EU either has to create the land border (which it can't) or the unicorn is alive and real. Once the unicorn is real, what can anyone do about it? How can anyone slay a unicorn?
Northern Ireland voted to Remain by 56% to 44%.
Liverpool voted to Remain by 58% to 42%.
The vote was across the whole of the UK, not just Liverpool or NI though.
Well nothing will happen with NIP until next year and chances are she won't even be Speaker after November, so...
As the tweet and responses point out, there is bipartisan opposition to any trade deal with the UK if it continues along its course.
But we know we aren’t getting a trade deal with the US anyway. So that’s a useful non-threat they can happily make and we can ignore.
That’s fine but it was a key part of the Brexit economic case, such as it was.
The ability to make deals was a key part of the Brexit economic case, not making a deal explicitly and solely with the USA.
Since we already have some deals and talks are quite advanced already on the CPTPP which would trump them all, that's a key part that is still going strong.
Its worth remembering that if Britain joins the CPTPP then that would be a bigger trade zone than the European Union - as well as a faster growing one.
What's the growth rate of CPTPP counries?
Fast but (even speaking as a Brexit supporter glad of his vote) not as relevant because of distance. It’s really useful, but not a complete game changer. We will still always want to trade some things closer to home.
I was also interested in the baseline.
Every time I get paid my bank balance's "growth" for that day is faster than Jeff Bezos's growth rate. But only an idiot would think I was catching him up.
The dirty secret about economic growth is that it's easier to achieve when you're poorer because of the slipstream effect. Hitching your wagon to growing markets makes a lot of superficial sense, but by the time the market has grown to be comparable to what's on your doorstep, isn't it going to be levelling off to a more "Western" growth rate?
The problem is that the EU is poorer too and isn't growing.
Since 1992 when the EU replaced the EEC, the EU has been growing slower than most of the rest of the developed world and is falling backwards not going forwards.
GDP per capita in the Republic of Korea is not just growing faster by far than GDP per capita in the Eurozone, but its been catching up and will probably overtake either this year or in the next couple of years.
As for your comment about South Korea, why are you suddenly cherry picking a country that's outside both the EU and CPTPP? Don't do a HYUFD on me, you are way better than that.
The EU absolutely is "poorer". In the 1980s despite being a lot smaller then prior to multiple expansions it was in a famous speech by Margaret Thatcher a trade zone "bigger than the United States". Its not anymore though, despite the fact the EU has expanded repeatedly and the USA hasn't yet added a new State a lot smaller than the USA. Indeed it had already fallen a long way behind before we left too.
US GDP per capita $63k Euro Area GDP per capita $35k
As for why I gave the example of Korea, the conversation expanded from CPTPP to Asia in general, and whether nations there are growing just due to the "slipstream" effect so I used them as an example, because they're coincidentally at the crossover point. Their GDP per capita is $34k versus $35k in the Euro Area, so if there were just a "slipstream" effect then that should be clearly visible by now and their growth should have halted over the past decade, but it hasn't.
Oh and Korea has followed the UK in announcing it is seeking accession to the CPTPP.
The EU is relatively poorer. It is a large developed country, with a low population growth rate. (The same, of course, can be said of Japan.)
It (and Japan) has still got absolutely richer in the last few decades - just less quickly than younger or poorer countries.
That said, I suspect South Korea (and Taiwan) have now reached levels where their economic growth is going to slow sharply. Demographic headwinds mean that they will need to spend ever increasing portions of their earnings in looking after old people. They - basically - are the next Japan or Italy.
That's an interesting thought, someone mentioned earlier their distaste at seeing old people working in the USA, but could the fact that people do continue working much more over there be a factor in why American growth has so vastly exceeded European growth in the past few decades?
They have a much higher birthrate and much higher immigration too.
On the subject of trade agreements... I don't think they matter that much.
Hence Taiwan is an export powerhouse, despite not being recognized as a country by much of the world.
There’s an interesting question. Does China charge Taiwan tariffs?
One doesn't charge a country tariffs; tariffs are imposed on goods entering the country and are paid by the importer. Goods from Taiwan are subject to China's "rest of world" tariffs, which are used for any country with which China does not have an FTA.
Respectful of the will of the British people and of Brexit... Heh. Yes, Brexit was indeed a British choice.
The problem with disavowing the Northern Ireland Protocol is that while it might play well in the Express, it basically pisses off everyone else and makes the UK look ever more like a dodgy dealer.
Many will say so what, but the practical impact is the EU cannot trust the UK to maintain the integrity of the single market.
A solution to Northern Ireland is not possible with Boris Johnson in power, he simply cannot be trusted.
The problem with that is all the opponents of Boris Johnson have bet the house on the sanctity of "peace in Northern Ireland" and "the Good Friday Agreement".
All Boris has to do is turn it around now and say that he is putting the Good Friday Agreement first, and with one bound he is free.
The problem with this solution is that nobody else on planet Earth believes words he says.
They don't need to. They need to see what he does, rather than what he says.
So far Brussels useful idiots have been keen to paint a rational solution whereby there's no Irish Sea border, no land border and we're not in the Single Market as a "unicorn".
But Boris can unilaterally create the unicorn. Invoke Article 16 and scrap the sea border and voila the unicorn is alive and visible.
Then what do his opponents do next. How do you slay the unicorn, once it is alive and visible to all?
The problem with your national brand's being "edgy law-breaker" is that previously winnable battles for hearts and minds go against you.
For example, if a land border through Ireland were to be established by the EU, nobody in Ireland would blame the EU (as might have happened if it were in 2018, say). They would blame Boris because they are aware of him, and his character.
The EU can't impose a land border through Ireland, the EU doesn't have the power to do anything. Ireland would have to impose the border and they're adamant they're not going to and the EU can't force them to do so.
So if we don't, and Ireland don't, then who does? And in the impossible event that only EU officials are at the border and no British ones are, then how can that be our responsibility?
Since we're already out of the Single Market, the moment we invoke Article 16 and drop the Sea Border the EU either has to create the land border (which it can't) or the unicorn is alive and real. Once the unicorn is real, what can anyone do about it? How can anyone slay a unicorn?
Northern Ireland voted to Remain by 56% to 44%.
Liverpool voted to Remain by 58% to 42%.
The vote was across the whole of the UK, not just Liverpool or NI though.
Liverpool doesn't have a GFA or NIP.
Hopefully NI won't have an NIP for much longer either.
The unicorn is entirely consistent with the GFA and I haven't seen a single proposal for how anyone plans to slay it once it is shown to be alive and well.
All it takes is for Article 16 to be invoked in the name of the Good Friday Agreement, sea border checks abolished in the name of the Good Friday Agreement and wham, bam, thank you ma'am we have a real as you live and breath unicorn.
Then good luck to anyone who wants to argue we need to kill the unicorn in order to proceed.
It is worth noting that the Eurozone has expanded to include ever poorer countries, so it's a tiny bit misleading using GDP per capita, because every time a Slovenia, Lithuania, etc., joins, it drags down the GDP per capita number.
Well nothing will happen with NIP until next year and chances are she won't even be Speaker after November, so...
As the tweet and responses point out, there is bipartisan opposition to any trade deal with the UK if it continues along its course.
But we know we aren’t getting a trade deal with the US anyway. So that’s a useful non-threat they can happily make and we can ignore.
That’s fine but it was a key part of the Brexit economic case, such as it was.
The ability to make deals was a key part of the Brexit economic case, not making a deal explicitly and solely with the USA.
Since we already have some deals and talks are quite advanced already on the CPTPP which would trump them all, that's a key part that is still going strong.
Its worth remembering that if Britain joins the CPTPP then that would be a bigger trade zone than the European Union - as well as a faster growing one.
What's the growth rate of CPTPP counries?
Fast but (even speaking as a Brexit supporter glad of his vote) not as relevant because of distance. It’s really useful, but not a complete game changer. We will still always want to trade some things closer to home.
I was also interested in the baseline.
Every time I get paid my bank balance's "growth" for that day is faster than Jeff Bezos's growth rate. But only an idiot would think I was catching him up.
The dirty secret about economic growth is that it's easier to achieve when you're poorer because of the slipstream effect. Hitching your wagon to growing markets makes a lot of superficial sense, but by the time the market has grown to be comparable to what's on your doorstep, isn't it going to be levelling off to a more "Western" growth rate?
The problem is that the EU is poorer too and isn't growing.
Since 1992 when the EU replaced the EEC, the EU has been growing slower than most of the rest of the developed world and is falling backwards not going forwards.
GDP per capita in the Republic of Korea is not just growing faster by far than GDP per capita in the Eurozone, but its been catching up and will probably overtake either this year or in the next couple of years.
As for your comment about South Korea, why are you suddenly cherry picking a country that's outside both the EU and CPTPP? Don't do a HYUFD on me, you are way better than that.
The EU absolutely is "poorer". In the 1980s despite being a lot smaller then prior to multiple expansions it was in a famous speech by Margaret Thatcher a trade zone "bigger than the United States". Its not anymore though, despite the fact the EU has expanded repeatedly and the USA hasn't yet added a new State a lot smaller than the USA. Indeed it had already fallen a long way behind before we left too.
US GDP per capita $63k Euro Area GDP per capita $35k
As for why I gave the example of Korea, the conversation expanded from CPTPP to Asia in general, and whether nations there are growing just due to the "slipstream" effect so I used them as an example, because they're coincidentally at the crossover point. Their GDP per capita is $34k versus $35k in the Euro Area, so if there were just a "slipstream" effect then that should be clearly visible by now and their growth should have halted over the past decade, but it hasn't.
Oh and Korea has followed the UK in announcing it is seeking accession to the CPTPP.
The EU is relatively poorer. It is a large developed country, with a low population growth rate. (The same, of course, can be said of Japan.)
It (and Japan) has still got absolutely richer in the last few decades - just less quickly than younger or poorer countries.
That said, I suspect South Korea (and Taiwan) have now reached levels where their economic growth is going to slow sharply. Demographic headwinds mean that they will need to spend ever increasing portions of their earnings in looking after old people. They - basically - are the next Japan or Italy.
That's an interesting thought, someone mentioned earlier their distaste at seeing old people working in the USA, but could the fact that people do continue working much more over there be a factor in why American growth has so vastly exceeded European growth in the past few decades?
They have a much higher birthrate and much higher immigration too.
What is interesting is that Germany was higher in 1992 than the USA, although the two had often been around the same level.
That isn't the case anymore. As I said since the EU came into existence in 1992, the EU has been falling further and further behind.
Oh and I checked @Farooq 's data where he said the EU had grown an average of 2% since 1980. That average is accurate, but the EU didn't exist for the period 1980-1992.
Actually the EEC grew in the period 1980 to 1991 by well over 2% but since 1992 well under 2% has been achieved, and since the turn of the century its more like 1.5% (even excluding 2020 due to the pandemic).
The EU has not succeeded in any measurable metric. People should be asking themselves why the EU is failing, not why we are leaving it.
On the subject of trade agreements... I don't think they matter that much.
Hence Taiwan is an export powerhouse, despite not being recognized as a country by much of the world.
There’s an interesting question. Does China charge Taiwan tariffs?
One doesn't charge a country tariffs; tariffs are imposed on goods entering the country and are paid by the importer. Goods from Taiwan are subject to China's "rest of world" tariffs, which are used for any country with which China does not have an FTA.
That’s my point - it’s me being silly really, but by doing so it recognises that’s it’s “rest of world” not China.
The fact that she keeps referring to the "Good Friday Accords" just shows how detached she is from the details. She's just signalling for domestic reasons.
Believe you are seriously understimating committment of Pelosi and other Democrats - especially politicos like her and Biden who were players in Congress during the Clinton administration when the Good Friday deal went down. And millions more who were keen observers. Not all of whom were Democrats, insiders and onlookers.
Bringing peace - or reasonable semblence thereof - to Ireland was THE marquee foreign policy achievement of the Clinton presidency. It is NOT just some damn political talking point. We regard it as a human victory, a moral imperative.
Which YOUR goverment has endangered & undermined, with about as much forethought let alone foresight as a blind dog pisses on handy lamp-post.
It is worth noting that the Eurozone has expanded to include ever poorer countries, so it's a tiny bit misleading using GDP per capita, because every time a Slovenia, Lithuania, etc., joins, it drags down the GDP per capita number.
Though those are very small countries so only drag it down a bit, and if you believe in the slipstream theory then they should be dragging up the area's growth. Poland doesn't use the Euro.
Also sites like the World Bank do like-for-like comparisons which is why you have access to data for Germany which didn't exist as a single unified state in the 1970s.
Even if you want to restrict it to western European nations that were in the EEC the data still holds, since the EEC became the EU the nations that were in the EEC that combined as Thatcher noted were "larger than the United States" have instead fallen further and further behind the competition.
The fact that she keeps referring to the "Good Friday Accords" just shows how detached she is from the details. She's just signalling for domestic reasons.
Believe you are seriously understimating committment of Pelosi and other Democrats - especially politicos like her and Biden who were players in Congress during the Clinton administration when the Good Friday deal went down. And millions more who were keen observers. Not all of whom were Democrats, insiders and onlookers.
Bringing peace - or reasonable semblence thereof - to Ireland was THE marquee foreign policy achievement of the Clinton presidency. It is NOT just some damn political talking point. We regard it as a human victory, a moral imperative.
Which YOUR goverment has endangered & undermined, with about as much forethought let alone foresight as a blind dog pisses on handy lamp-post.
Oh cut the virtue signalling bullshit.
Brexit doesn't endanger peace in Northern Ireland and it doesn't require a sea border.
If the UK invokes Article 16, which it is perfectly legally entitled to do under international law, and tears up the 'sea border' and doesn't impose any land checks then how exactly is peace in NI threatened?
If there's no land border, no sea border, and we're not in the EU - the so-called unicorn - then how does that threaten peace?
And if peace still exists and the "unicorn" exists post-Article 16 then what is America going to do about it? Are Pelosi and Biden going to try to slay 'the unicorn' and insist upon border checks where none are happening and so jeopardise peace in Northern Ireland? I don't think so.
The fact that she keeps referring to the "Good Friday Accords" just shows how detached she is from the details. She's just signalling for domestic reasons.
Believe you are seriously understimating committment of Pelosi and other Democrats - especially politicos like her and Biden who were players in Congress during the Clinton administration when the Good Friday deal went down. And millions more who were keen observers. Not all of whom were Democrats, insiders and onlookers.
Bringing peace - or reasonable semblence thereof - to Ireland was THE marquee foreign policy achievement of the Clinton presidency. It is NOT just some damn political talking point. We regard it as a human victory, a moral imperative.
Which YOUR goverment has endangered & undermined, with about as much forethought let alone foresight as a blind dog pisses on handy lamp-post.
BartyBobbins cannot bear too much reality, SeaShanty.
Comments
I've been radicalised by my experience cycle commuting, so am considering the opportunity.
1964... Maybe? But SKS is no Wilson that's for sure...
Many will say so what, but the practical impact is the EU cannot trust the UK to maintain the integrity of the single market.
A solution to Northern Ireland is not possible with Boris Johnson in power, he simply cannot be trusted.
Although after six months of investigations into wrongdoing sees the most shocking 'crime' being committed at Westminster was a birthday cake and a chorus of happy birthday at lunchtime, perhaps this is more appropriate . . .
Any sense of a cover up here becoming the narrative has to be extremely dangerous for the Conservatives doesn’t it, more dangerous than Partygate itself? Why? Because Partygate largely owned by Boris, largely voncked away with him. Partygate whitewash, one rule for them one rule for us, will be largely owned by the party in government and stick around post Boris. Won’t it?
My prediction is based on the next election being a Boris/Starmer match up.
I can see Wes winning a big majority for Labour in 2028/2029...
With that said, I think this is simply a bet on the Ukrainian war ending before (say) mid 2023, and energy prices therefore coming down sharply.
And yes, those do look like good odds.
All Boris has to do is turn it around now and say that he is putting the Good Friday Agreement first, and with one bound he is free.
So long as he doesn't build a land border, what's the problem? There were three things that had to be achieved - get out of the EU, no sea border, no land border. Two are done already, we're out of the EU and there's no land border - if he unilaterally drops t he sea border while neither rejoining the EU nor building a land border then the so-called 🦄 is suddenly in existance.
Once the unicorn is real, then what do the people betting the house on the Good Friday Agreement do next? You can't say that Britain needs to build a sea border as not doing so is a unicorn, when not doing so is already the status quo. You can't say we need to be in the EU, when we're already not. You can't say we aren't allowed to build a land border, when we're saying we're not doing so anyway.
So once the unicorn is alive and visible to all, then what do you do next? How do you slay the unicorn?
Havn’t yet read what you’ve posted, but I disagree with it.
Indigenous leaders met Prince Charles in Canada and asked for an apology from the Queen over the "assimilation and genocide" of indigenous schoolchildren.
RoseAnne Archibald, Assembly of First Nations national chief, said the prince "acknowledged" failures in handling the relationship with indigenous people.
Canada is dealing with a scandal which saw indigenous children die or be abused in residential schools.
There have been calls for the Queen to apologise over the issue.
If we are both supremely confident we are right.
The US Congress is not in the mood to pass trade deals and hasn't been for years now. So if they're not going to anyway, then what's the problem?
Since we already have some deals and talks are quite advanced already on the CPTPP which would trump them all, that's a key part that is still going strong.
Its worth remembering that if Britain joins the CPTPP then that would be a bigger trade zone than the European Union - as well as a faster growing one.
I’ll be shocked if we see this report anytime soon .
Cameron also lost votes to the LDs before the 2010 general election, Labour were little changed.
If the LD vote rises again it is likely to be at Tory rather than Labour expense, see the local elections in the Home counties.
In 1964 too there was a bigger final swing to the Liberals than Labour
EDIT: Farage might have done but he's an idiot.
Less enlightened posters may mistakenly believe it could replace lost European trade any time this century.
But our trade with them is v low, compared with Europe and the US.
CPTPP membership would be great, but its not going to turn around the UK’s rather dire trade performance.
UK trade with CPTPP nations is already growing at an average of 8% per annum and that's before we join even which could see that grow even further.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1027860/dit-cptpp-uk-accession-strategic-approach.pdf
I would fully expect by the end of the century we absolutely will be trading more with Asia than with Europe. Its a denial of 21st century development trends to expect otherwise and looking forward to the growth opportunities of the 21st century instead of trying to roll the clock back to protectionist 1950s European ideas is one of the key strengths of Brexit.
Brexit is fine if you wish to make an argument over sovereignty. We can quarrel about real sovereignty versus theoretical sovereignty, and we can look at how sovereignty has fared since Brexit too.
The problem is that Brexit was sold as sunny economic uplands to boot, which was never ever going to be true.
Putting aside that the USA won’t be joining this anytime soon and if the UK did it would do so on terms already dictated by the current members , so in effect far removed from the taking back control guff .
Only in Leaver world do you trash trade with countries close to you and then chase scraps off the buffet table 10,000 miles away.
So far Brussels useful idiots have been keen to paint a rational solution whereby there's no Irish Sea border, no land border and we're not in the Single Market as a "unicorn".
But Boris can unilaterally create the unicorn. Invoke Article 16 and scrap the sea border and voila the unicorn is alive and visible.
Then what do his opponents do next. How do you slay the unicorn, once it is alive and visible to all?
That hairy coat of yours with nothing underneath
Not sure you have a name so I will call you Keith
Most of our exports already don't go to the EU. That proportion is only rising.
Why stick your head in the sand, operating on 1950s protectionism and distance mattering - when the 21st century technology and trade and 21st century growth prospects are all in the Far East?
My Laptop I'm writing this message to you on was made in Asia not Europe. Trade is real and global and trying to turn your back on the East because its 'far away' isn't wise.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1964_United_Kingdom_general_election
In the real world more trade is heading to Asia annually and that is ratchetting in one direction only.
You might want to turn the clock back to the 1950s. I don't.
And you'll get British-made produce in Hamburg post-Brexit just as much as Asian-made goods. Meanwhile our trade opportunities lie in the East far more than Europe in the long-term. Brexit is going ahead of the curve.
Germany.
We should ask them what their secret is.
But one would be forced to care, should the situation reverse and foreigners were to become net sellers of UK assets.
For example, if a land border through Ireland were to be established by the EU, nobody in Ireland would blame the EU (as might have happened if it were in 2018, say). They would blame Boris because they are aware of him, and his character.
The government has made a conscious decision to lower trade volumes with the EU by the nature of the trade deal and is now having to chase deals with countries on the other side of the world.
So if we don't, and Ireland don't, then who does? And in the impossible event that only EU officials are at the border and no British ones are, then how can that be our responsibility?
Since we're already out of the Single Market, the moment we invoke Article 16 and drop the Sea Border the EU either has to create the land border (which it can't) or the unicorn is alive and real. Once the unicorn is real, what can anyone do about it? How can anyone slay a unicorn?
CPTPP lowers barriers to trade with those nations. Just as the Single Market lowers barriers to trade within the Single Market.
Or Charles Perrault should sue the socks off you. 😆
Brexiters have already been schooled once (“Russia is unimportant; it’s a lot about Taiwan!) about geography.
Nadine Dorries claims 96% (yes 96%) of consultation responses were in favour of selling off Channel 4.
I went to bed in Blighty and woke up in Putin's Russia.
Whilst I’m trying to explain these points, you are trying to discredit all the thought and analysis poured into my posts? I just can’t work out what side your on? 🤷♀️
I’m from Yorkshire Farooq! And currently in Yorkshire waiting to go to the game. This means I’m bluff! You just have to roll with it.
We have always been uninterested in a trade deal with Eurasia.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/doctors-to-treat-insomnia-with-sleep-app-rather-than-pills-353rm07tq
Since 1992 when the EU replaced the EEC, the EU has been growing slower than most of the rest of the developed world and is falling backwards not going forwards.
GDP per capita in the Republic of Korea is not just growing faster by far than GDP per capita in the Eurozone, but its been catching up and will probably overtake either this year or in the next couple of years.
Come to think of it, how’s British performance of late?
Oh.
Britain's performance of late? Well its too soon to tell, but we were the fastest growing economy in the G7 last year weren't we? It will take time to tell which of us is right.
I’ve been waiting to post that new emoji for a long time 🤭
But in the long run our place in Europe will settle down (the invasion of Ukraine has helped some healing, though no one would have wished it on Ukraine) and we’ll never go back. Hence I’m still happy with my vote.
But facts are facts, and on pacific trade, you’re broadly right. It matters, but it will never displace that which is just over the channel for a lot of things.
https://www.ft.com/content/de798aac-2162-42cd-baaf-2accf546762c
If you want to take decade-long pre-pandemic view instead then in the pre-pandemic decade of 2010-2019 the UK grew faster per capita than the Eurozone. Despite the referendum in the middle of that decade, if it caused any 'damage' it was more than absorbed in the decade's data.
And that's despite the fact that the Euro Area is behind the UK so should be growing faster you'd have thought on your slipstream theory.
The evidence behind LTNs is kind of bullshit.
According to the BBC:
"Noted for its railway heritage, the Flying Dutchman and the Mallard locomotives were both built there"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61505857
So Wagner got the idea for his opera from the zombies wandering around the railway station? Surely some mistake...
Hence Taiwan is an export powerhouse, despite not being recognized as a country by much of the world.
US GDP per capita $63k
Euro Area GDP per capita $35k
As for why I gave the example of Korea, the conversation expanded from CPTPP to Asia in general, and whether nations there are growing just due to the "slipstream" effect so I used them as an example, because they're coincidentally at the crossover point. Their GDP per capita is $34k versus $35k in the Euro Area, so if there were just a "slipstream" effect then that should be clearly visible by now and their growth should have halted over the past decade, but it hasn't.
Oh and Korea has followed the UK in announcing it is seeking accession to the CPTPP.
It (and Japan) has still got absolutely richer in the last few decades - just less quickly than younger or poorer countries.
That said, I suspect South Korea (and Taiwan) have now reached levels where their economic growth is going to slow sharply. Demographic headwinds mean that they will need to spend ever increasing portions of their earnings in looking after old people. They - basically - are the next Japan or Italy.
The vote was across the whole of the UK, not just Liverpool or NI though.
The unicorn is entirely consistent with the GFA and I haven't seen a single proposal for how anyone plans to slay it once it is shown to be alive and well.
All it takes is for Article 16 to be invoked in the name of the Good Friday Agreement, sea border checks abolished in the name of the Good Friday Agreement and wham, bam, thank you ma'am we have a real as you live and breath unicorn.
Then good luck to anyone who wants to argue we need to kill the unicorn in order to proceed.
That isn't the case anymore. As I said since the EU came into existence in 1992, the EU has been falling further and further behind.
Oh and I checked @Farooq 's data where he said the EU had grown an average of 2% since 1980. That average is accurate, but the EU didn't exist for the period 1980-1992.
Actually the EEC grew in the period 1980 to 1991 by well over 2% but since 1992 well under 2% has been achieved, and since the turn of the century its more like 1.5% (even excluding 2020 due to the pandemic).
The EU has not succeeded in any measurable metric. People should be asking themselves why the EU is failing, not why we are leaving it.
Bringing peace - or reasonable semblence thereof - to Ireland was THE marquee foreign policy achievement of the Clinton presidency. It is NOT just some damn political talking point. We regard it as a human victory, a moral imperative.
Which YOUR goverment has endangered & undermined, with about as much forethought let alone foresight as a blind dog pisses on handy lamp-post.
Also sites like the World Bank do like-for-like comparisons which is why you have access to data for Germany which didn't exist as a single unified state in the 1970s.
Even if you want to restrict it to western European nations that were in the EEC the data still holds, since the EEC became the EU the nations that were in the EEC that combined as Thatcher noted were "larger than the United States" have instead fallen further and further behind the competition.
Brexit doesn't endanger peace in Northern Ireland and it doesn't require a sea border.
If the UK invokes Article 16, which it is perfectly legally entitled to do under international law, and tears up the 'sea border' and doesn't impose any land checks then how exactly is peace in NI threatened?
If there's no land border, no sea border, and we're not in the EU - the so-called unicorn - then how does that threaten peace?
And if peace still exists and the "unicorn" exists post-Article 16 then what is America going to do about it? Are Pelosi and Biden going to try to slay 'the unicorn' and insist upon border checks where none are happening and so jeopardise peace in Northern Ireland? I don't think so.
But we’re back to my original point; no US trade deal is on the horizon, in part because of Boris’s policy in Northern Ireland.
Also, it’s noted that US performance has been boosted by high migration. We decided we didn’t want that either.