Categories
Options
Johnson exit betting: Now a 54% chance he’ll survive till at least 2024 – politicalbetting.com
Johnson exit betting: Now a 54% chance he’ll survive till at least 2024 – politicalbetting.com
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Lying to the House issue still to be resolved, tho
He might, but the economy among other things has got to look a whole lot better than it does now. Unless of course you are banking on a successful culture war from Big Dog.
The lie line was always the weakest of the lot. Lying requires proving the other party knew it wasn't true when they said it.
Boris deserves to go for the economy and raising taxes.
Right now I expect the Bozzer to scrape home with a tiny Maj
Once dust of taken by surprise settles, It looks like a partygate whitewash this just one fpn for cakeambush, and the public won’t like this “got away with it” at all. Thats the bottom line. No amount of whitewashing a whitewash whitewashes a whitewash - big dog has to live with the stigma of getting away with it, one rule for them…
Someone mentioned Private Eye having field day - Private Eye was set up primarily to attack and destroy establishment whitewash. If they can’t dine out on this latest MET disaster they should disband.
So as well as an outcry over what looks like one rule for them, another rule for the rest of us type whitewash, the Second from bottom line is What is Boris line of defence “wait for the investigation to finish”his can kicking line of defence ended today. He has to fess up and be sorry all over again now? The last time he done sorry he came out with the Saville jibe, and all hell broke loose.
Moving on from Partygate. What new hell comes next? It’s Coming next week 😃
It is highly disconcerting to go to America and visit a diner and be served by someone in their late 70s. Ditto at the supermarket checkout
Are you not being selective with your polling?
To be a lie you need to prove he knew that having a slice of cake at lunchtime would get an FPN issued, any more than whether Starmer would (not even should) have known that Korma after a day's work might get an FPN issued.
126 fpn issued and you call it a whitewash?
Insane.
It seems a little curious that is a common view of many of the lefter posters.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8aVgSIDJjM&list=TLGGzocZNFUhBvkxOTA1MjAyMg&t=2s
I say he needs to explain... he clearly can't.
Much will be part time work, but full time retirement on a good pension is going to be a rare thing in coming decades.
That's the problem with accusing people of lying. It isn't enough to prove that they're wrong, you need to prove that they knew at the time that they were. Being wrong != lying, to err is human.
I doubt I will be alive when the 30 year rule expires and the report is finally made public.
The whole thing is becoming an establishment stitch up.
Politico.com - Kenney steps down as leader of Alberta’s Conservatives
Only half of the United Conservative Party voted in support of his leadership. 'I will respect the decision,' he said.
Alberta Premier Jason Kenney scraped out a narrow win in a referendum on his leadership, then surprised almost everyone Wednesday night by stepping down as leader of the United Conservative Party.
He announced the news Wednesday after earning just 51.4 percent support in a leadership review.
“The result is not what I hoped for, or frankly what I expected,” said Kenney. “But I’ve been clear from day one, that I will respect the decision of the members in this leadership review.”
Kenney had long insisted he would consider anything over 50 percent a passing grade, but on Wednesday night he announced it would be inadequate to get by on a squeaker.
“A large number of our members want to clear the air with a leadership election,” Kenney said. “I fully respect their decision, and I encourage all members to do the same.”
Earlier this week on a trip to Washington he told reporters, “I’ve never lost an election, and I don’t plan on doing so now.”
He said the results were a surprise, though had also prepared remarks. In his resignation speech, Kenney listed the challenges of the past two years.
“We went through three once-in-a-century crises — the largest public health crisis in a century, the largest collapse of the world economy in nearly a century, and — for the first time ever — we experienced negative oil prices.”
Kenney had served as premier of Alberta since 2019. Before that, he’d been an MP for almost 20 years, serving in various posts in Stephen Harper’s Cabinet.
He urged Albertans to move forward. “It’s clear that the past two years were deeply divisive for our province, our party and our caucus,” he said. “But it is my fervent hope that in the months to come, we all move on past the division of Covid.”
Kenney said he has advised his party leadership to schedule a leadership election “in a timely fashion.”
The Calgary Herald reports that the UCP caucus will meet Thursday morning when they are expected to select an interim leader.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/18/kenney-steps-down-leader-albertas-conservatives-00033655
Certainly, I think in 1995 it already looked like the Tories were on their way out. In 2008, it looked bad for lab after the bottled election.
I still see Starmer as being in the mould of Kinnock or Howard - the guy who fixes the damage of the previous disastrous incumbent but not able to win.
Not looking so daft now, is it?
20.5.20 BYOB
19.6.20 PM birthday cake ambush PHOTO EVIDENCE
13.11.20 Lee Cain leaving
13.11.20 No.10 flat - interviewing someone for a job in middle of ABBA party
17.12.20 Capt Steve Higham leaving
14.1.21 Private secs leaving
Yes it’s a Whitewash. You know it’s a whitewash. It goes down in history as famous whitewash.
We also both know incriminating photos will just keep coming, this so called end is just the start. How do we know this? Simon Case didn’t get one. All his junior staff did 😆
The voters have sussed him as the lazy, useless buffoon he is. There’s one thing the voters of this country won’t tolerate, a PM who puts himself before his country - that is exactly what Boris had done each time he has lied to us.
Those juniors will have photos chocking up their iphones and now have a bloody good reason to slip them to the press on the quiet.
Incidently, BBC just said that everyone at birthday cake gig was fined but ITV saying no, simon case was there with Sunak and has not been fined.
It would be ironic if the unions succeed in redacting the names of those at the centre of this
I don't suppose many minds have been changed.
And if you don't abide by them you must be a fool
We have the power to control the whole land
You never must question our motives or plans -
cause well outlaw your voices, do anything we want
we've nothing to fear from the nation
Well throw you out of your houses if you get too much
If we have to well destroy your generation
cause we've built up a frontage and we've gained respect
there's no one to endanger our position -
Standards rule ok.
The sums you have to plough into them to achieve a comfortable fraction of your working income at retirement are colossal. I used to work in pensions administration twenty years ago and savers were often shocked by how little their fat contributions were projected to buy them in the way of income at pensionable age, and things have only got worse since. Even we lucky few who are still accruing defined benefits have seen our contributions jacked up hugely in recent years and our accrual rates slashed.
Much of the population has nothing left after paying essential costs like rent or mortgage, food and fuel, and is already bridging the gaps with credit cards or making serious economies. How in the name of God are people meant to afford to blow a quarter or a third of their post-tax income for anything up to a fifty-year career to fund a decent pension at the end of it?
They can't afford it, so they'll end up working until they drop.
He had all the truth in his head. Something else came out his mouth.
I think he could still lead them into the election, though more likely voncked out soon enough. But he won’t win the voters back, after lying to them about this.
Even Ant and Dec got it, six months ago. Why can’t you still not get it?
They will elect Boris again in 2024.
If people get fined for Starmer's Korma and Beer night then is he a lying liar for saying all rules were followed? Or was he mistaken?
And that's just one night, if Sue Gray had spent six months trawling through his and others diary and events how many other questionable events might have been found? Would that make him a liar, or mistaken?
Unless you can see inside someone else's mind, how do you prove a lie instead of a mistake?
After this establishment whitewash, the junior grades getting the VPNs, the Simon Cases getting away, the voters will now turn on Boris and the Tories. Just see where the polls will be in two weeks time.
On that basis, unlike some of my fellow leftie travellers, I remain content to predict that the Tories will not be in government after GE 2024.
As of 10 a.m. Thursday, there are still 17,000 Republican mail ballots that still need to be counted statewide, according to the state Department of State.
As of Thursday afternoon, 0.1% separated candidates David McCormick and Dr. Mehmet Oz. Mr. Oz led Mr. McCormick with 31.24% of the vote, or 416,704 votes. Mr. McCormick had 31.14% of the vote, or 415,335 votes. . . .
[Including all ballots incuding Dem statewide] 51,000 total outstanding [mail] ballots. The majority of those ballots come from the following counties and are not broken down by party:
Philadelphia: 30,000 [mostly Democratic, in GOP primary counted so far Oz 38% versus McCormick 25% and Barnette 20%]
Delaware: 4,800 [many Dem; among GOP so far Oz 31% versus McCormick 34% and Barnette 22%]
Lancaster: 3,800 [so far Oz 27% versus McCorimick 27% and Barnette 30%]
Greene: 1,777 [so far Oz 37% versus McCormick 35% and Barnette 18%]
Tioga: 1,298 [so far Oz 27% versus McCormick 33% and Barnette 26%]
Campaigns also are waiting for Election Day votes to be reported from approximately 65 precincts, 31 of which are in Allegheny County, which hasn’t updated its results since Wednesday around noon, and plans to convene the county Returns Board at 9 a.m. Friday. [Alleghany so far Oz 32% versus McCormick 39% and Barnette 20%]
A senior official from the McCormick campaign said Thursday afternoon that they expect to gain at least 100 votes from the Allegheny County precincts.
The McCormick senior official added that there are more than 1,500 military and overseas ballots that still need to be reported. Mr. McCormick’s campaign spent nearly $1 million in targeting this group, and his background as an Army paratrooper and combat veteran aligns with these voters, the official said, making the campaign confident he can win in the end.
The official said they believe two-thirds of those military ballots will be Republican voters, and most of which will be in favor of Mr. McCormick over the “Turkish Army surgeon,” the official added, taking a jab at Mr. Oz’s Turkish military experience as a dual citizen.
Counties will continue accepting military and overseas ballots until Tuesday, May 23 at 5 p.m.
Mr. Oz’s campaign could not immediately be reached for comment.
Even as the campaigns continue to wait for the remaining votes to be counted, they are simultaneously preparing for an automatic recount. An automatic recount would be scheduled if candidates are separated by 0.5% margin or less. The recount would be scheduled by Wednesday, June 1 and need to be completed by noon on June 7, according to the state election code.
https://www.post-gazette.com/news/politics-state/2022/05/19/pennsylvania-mail-ballots-gop-republican-primary-mehmet-oz-david-mccormick-lancaster-state-department/stories/202205190128
It’s obvious what we want, it’s not complicated, the lawmakers who set the laws we followed, punished when they did not follow those rules.
A reasonable supposition perhaps, but a supposition isn't proof no matter how reasonable it is.
Hoping John Fetterman gets well soon AND can start hitting the campaign trail by Fall.
For one thinng, is one progressive that has got some clue how to listen and connect and campaign with voters in rural & rust-belt America.
And noted in story, the GOP side of PA US Senate race will NOT be decided until June.
Provided of course GOP gubernatorial nominee does NOT lead March on Harrisburg and/or storm the state capitol.
Unfortunately though, a point of too much information being out has already been crossed, knowing some got 5 fpn, at same time knowing Boris got 1, Simon Case 0.
This is not remotely over is it. All that had happened today is it had taken a angry and bitter turn into a new direction, a new quite nastier thing.
I think we all have to bear in mind that Labour's polling lead is much weaker than it should be, mid-term and facing a useless Government beset by very serious problems, it has yet to draft and attempt to sell a manifesto, and also that poor economic performance isn't necessarily fatal to the Tories either.
If Sunak can find just enough money down the back of the Treasury settee to stop middle class elderly people from freezing to death this Winter, i.e. to help them out with the bills without resorting to raiding their property wealth in some fashion, then the Tories are still in with a shout. The Corbyn experiment has done lasting damage to Labour's image amongst much of the electorate, and if the election looks like being close then the Tories will play the Sturgeon-as-puppeteer card against Labour again, likely with some effect.
The Conservatives don't even have to pretend to care about the young and the poor. They just need to convince the existing members of their voter coalition that Labour is hostile to their values and will hit them harder in their wallets.
This has been done to death and even Keith was photographed drinking beer.
Unless there's some seriously shocking photos in the Gray report, worse than a Korma and Beer night, the public is looking at their electricity bills etc not bothered about Simon Case.
Quite astonishing .
WA Post - Who’ll win in Pennsylvania? Gaming out remaining votes in Oz vs. McCormick.
In a move jarringly reminiscent of the 2020 election, Donald Trump on Wednesday urged his preferred candidate in the Pennsylvania Senate race to simply declare victory in a tight race before all the votes were even counted.
Setting aside for a moment how anti-democratic that is, the former president has reason to worry.
Trump-backed television doctor Mehmet Oz on Wednesday saw his lead shrink from about 2,700 votes to about 1,200, as mail-in votes that can’t be counted before Election Day and other votes were added to the tallies. And at this rate, it seems possible that former hedge fund manager Dave McCormick could overtake Oz, as McCormick’s campaign has repeatedly predicted he will.
A little more than 20,000 votes were added to the totals in the 24 hours between Wednesday morning and Thursday morning, with McCormick gaining about 1,500 votes — in large part thanks to his superiority on mail ballots. That means that, for every 1,000 votes counted, he’s gaining about 70 on Oz. If that rate held, he would overtake Oz after about 17,500 more votes were tallied.
It’s not totally clear how many ballots remain to be counted. The McCormick campaign estimated late Wednesday that about 20,000 mail ballots remain, although other estimates suggested it could be lower — as few as 12,000, PennLive.com reported overnight. The Pennsylvania secretary of state did not provide clarity on this number Wednesday morning. There also appear to be some Election Day ballots remaining in both Pittsburgh-based Allegheny County (strong for McCormick) and Philadelphia (strong for Oz), even as mail ballots make up the bulk of the remainder.
But McCormick’s gains thus far could somewhat undersell how much he could close the gap. That’s because he’s doing better specifically on mail ballots, which are likely to be an increasing proportion of the ballots that are yet to be counted.
McCormick is winning more than 32 percent of mail ballots, while Oz is winning about 23 percent. So for every 1,000 mail ballots (overall, not just the ones counted Wednesday), McCormick is gaining a little more than 90 votes. At that rate, he would overtake Oz after about 13,000 more mail votes were tallied. . . .
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/05/19/oz-mccormick-mail-votes/
. . . .So if the number of remaining mail ballots is closer to 12,000, Oz might hold on. If it’s near the 20,000 that his campaign estimated late Wednesday, McCormick would have a good shot at taking the lead.
Whether it will shake out that way remains to be seen. Those Election Day ballots in Allegheny and Philadelphia loom potentially large, and Oz is winning the Election Day vote overall by about a percentage point. In addition, these are statewide numbers, and the final results will depend upon where the remaining ballots come from.
For example, a big chunk of the remaining absentees is in Lancaster County, which had problems with a coding error that delayed the counting. As of Wednesday evening, Lancaster still had about 4,000 votes to be counted, and McCormick was winning them by a significantly smaller margin than he was statewide — by about 1.5 points.
But McCormick gained significantly more ground elsewhere. He closed the gap significantly late Wednesday — by about 500 votes — thanks in part to the addition of mail votes from Beaver County, where he leads Oz on mail ballots by 14 percentage points.
Regardless, it seems highly likely we’re headed to a contentious recount, which will mean extended scrutiny of the results, which could stretch well into next month. That’s a recipe for disaster, particularly if Trump becomes worried about his favored candidate losing after that process. In recent weeks, Trump’s candidates have lost in the Idaho and Nebraska governor’s race and in a much-watched North Carolina congressional race. And it appears very likely one will lose in the Georgia governor’s race next week, as the results in Pennsylvania continue to shake out.
Trump has already planted the seeds for crying foul over the results. And it’s difficult to see him standing aside while a state whose election results he so extensively and baselessly impugned in 2020 conducts a recount involving his candidate of choice.
And for that, the GOP would have its long-standing humoring of his baseless claims to thank.
Again if Starmer is fined do you think that means he's lying in saying that he followed the rules?
Being wrong is not a lie.
Might try pitching it again, in the lead-up to Halloween!
Occupational pensions then add further income beyond the state pension to retirement incomes
Boris as good as put the bottles on the table and said “have a blow out”. And then left them to it. The blow out. And the FPNs.
That one piece of understanding alone will make him unelectable in the eyes of the voters.
Unless you can defend that as acceptable behaviour?
https://twitter.com/chrisshipitv/status/1527404879462944778?s=20&t=h3ecfFzFoTsQkM1fDFh5jA
Indeed if Starmer can prove he was working we could see the same outcome, while others at beergate receive FPNs
However there may be a twist in this tale for labour if Rayner cannot establish she was working
As are Rayner and Foy.
Johnson only being investigated for two out of the five "work events" he attended is dereliction of duty.
Had the Gray Report been published in full when Gray had completed it, Johnson was finished.
The Met then, after a change of heart, demand the suspension of the Gray Report. In the meantime they barely investigate Johnson and they fail to investigate Case. Johnson is then considered exonerated and survives. This stinks.
Are either Case and/or Johnson Freemasons?
Until of course they get burned themselves. The longer he sticks around the more people get burned. It’s all a game.
It will be a mess when he eventually runs out of fuel and someone has to clean up the mess.