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If you want to win a by-election select a woman – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited May 22 in General
imageIf you want to win a by-election select a woman – politicalbetting.com

Westminster by-elections don’t come round very often but when they do the main parties put in a big effort to defend or gain seats.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,637
    edited May 17
    First

    No women's only lists required in the LibDems, they have 9 out of 13 women MPs.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 9,068

    First

    Despite being (I assume) a man.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,637

    First

    Despite being (I assume) a man.
    I am, what I am, I don't want praise, I don't want pity....

    (Gloria Gaynor)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 23,828
    I despise feminism as much as the next red-blooded Briton, and think women should be barefoot, squealing and bent over the Aga, as we all do, however it is hard to argue that masculine politics is having a good run right now, as the macho idiot Putin sends his brutes into Ukraine

    Perhaps it is time for the women to run the show. At least for a while. Tho not Kamala Harris, please

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    Not always, the Tories held the Witney and Old Bexley and Sidcup by elections with men.

    Though yes given the circumstances of the Tiverton and Honiton and Wakefield by elections their best chances of holding them are with local female councillors as candidates
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 643
    Who is the Lib Dem candidate for Tiverton?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,032
    Leon said:

    I despise feminism as much as the next red-blooded Briton, and think women should be barefoot, squealing and bent over the Aga, as we all do, however it is hard to argue that masculine politics is having a good run right now, as the macho idiot Putin sends his brutes into Ukraine

    Perhaps it is time for the women to run the show. At least for a while. Tho not Kamala Harris, please

    I'm not sure President Le Pen would have been a good thing.

    And the only good thing that can be said about GDR Merkel now is that Gazprom Zchroder was worse.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 6,373
    .

    Scott_xP said:

    Climbdown back into holding pattern on the Northern Ireland Protocol, from a government evidently quite stuck on what to do. Can't successfully negotiate with the EU for fear of backbenchers / DUP, can't really threaten for fear of the consequences. Government without power. https://twitter.com/BBCBreakfast/status/1526440124426473472

    Simple solution, stop worrying about the consequences and JFDI fix the problem to the satisfaction of the backbenches and DUP.

    Once that's done, we can move forwards. That's how the 80 seat majority was won.
    So much for negotiating then, bugger the Nats and Non-Aligned, it's their backbenchers and DUP count?
    Sort of.

    Ireland and the EU have partisanly taken the side of Sinn Fein and have the attitude of bugger the DUP its the nationalists that count.

    That is their prerogative, they are entirely entitled to do that. But if they're going to do that, we should respond in kind, we should say bugger the non-aligned and the nationalists, we'll take the side of the unionists - because if we don't, then who is going to do so?

    Then negotiations can start. From a position where all parties are represented in the negotiations.

    The problem with this from the beginning was that the DUP etc were locked out of the negotiations under May and Boris didn't care enough to include them either. For this to be resolved now they need to be one of the parties at the negotiating table.

    Article 16 should be invoked, bugger the consequences, suspend the Protocol entirely legally within the Protocol's own Safeguards, and then start the negotiations, with all parties at the table.

    Once a negotiation is reached that is satisfactory to all of the DUP, Sinn Fein and everyone else then we can move forwards in a stable fashion. But the GFA gives a veto to both Sinn Fein and the DUP for Stormont, so both Sinn Fein and the DUP should hold a veto over the negotiations too. That should have always been the logical endpoint of the negotiations and it was always appropriate that such negotiations would only be capable of being done post-Brexit and not pre-Brexit with the backwards timetabling the EU wanted.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,246
    Icarus said:

    Who is the Lib Dem candidate for Tiverton?

    The woman who beat the Tory anti LD specialist in the locals
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 1,577

    First

    Despite being (I assume) a man.
    I am, what I am, I don't want praise, I don't want pity....

    (Gloria Gaynor)
    But I know what I am and I'm glad I'm a man

    And so is Lola

    (Ray Davies)
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 3,994
    Leon said:

    I despise feminism as much as the next red-blooded Briton, and think women should be barefoot, squealing and bent over the Aga, as we all do, however it is hard to argue that masculine politics is having a good run right now, as the macho idiot Putin sends his brutes into Ukraine

    Perhaps it is time for the women to run the show. At least for a while. Tho not Kamala Harris, please

    Yes indeed. A period of being sullenly mothered. Being told that they aren't angry, but very disappointed with the vague threat of your father if you get lippy.
    But not Harris and her laughing inappropriately inability to do anything worthwhile. Effective as Al Gore in a shit pant suit and sneakers
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 6,373

    Leon said:

    I despise feminism as much as the next red-blooded Briton, and think women should be barefoot, squealing and bent over the Aga, as we all do, however it is hard to argue that masculine politics is having a good run right now, as the macho idiot Putin sends his brutes into Ukraine

    Perhaps it is time for the women to run the show. At least for a while. Tho not Kamala Harris, please

    I'm not sure President Le Pen would have been a good thing.

    And the only good thing that can be said about GDR Merkel now is that Gazprom Zchroder was worse.
    Keir Starmer isn't very good but at least he's not Rebecca Long-Bailey.

    Some women can be good, some women not so much. No different to men really.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,529

    First

    No women's only lists required in the LibDems, they have 9 out of 13 women MPs.

    And a few years ago, none.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 3,994
    Mark Drakford and Adam Price would ensure 50% success each for the sexes in by elections with their patented zipper system.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    The Labour candidate for Wakefield is a man, so presumably OGH is backing a Tory Hold?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 3,994
    Applicant said:

    The Labour candidate for Wakefield is a man, so presumably OGH is backing a Tory Hold?

    The now ex executive committee still have time to nominate a female 'real labour' stalking horse
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,167

    Icarus said:

    Who is the Lib Dem candidate for Tiverton?

    The woman who beat the Tory anti LD specialist in the locals
    Is she not the person who has been selected for Somerton and Frome?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,889

    First

    No women's only lists required in the LibDems, they have 9 out of 13 women MPs.

    A USP we should have heard more of.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,637
    Leon said:

    I despise feminism as much as the next red-blooded Briton, and think women should be barefoot, squealing and bent over the Aga, as we all do, however it is hard to argue that masculine politics is having a good run right now, as the macho idiot Putin sends his brutes into Ukraine

    Perhaps it is time for the women to run the show. At least for a while. Tho not Kamala Harris, please

    I hope the aga isn't hot..
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,637

    First

    No women's only lists required in the LibDems, they have 9 out of 13 women MPs.

    And a few years ago, none.
    and?...
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 6,373

    First

    No women's only lists required in the LibDems, they have 9 out of 13 women MPs.

    Only after being embarrassed about the least diverse Parliamentary Party of the modern era in 2015.

    From memory 100% of their elected MPs after that election were white, middle aged men who were in the same age bracket too.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,112
    Mr. Leon, Zelensky's doing quite a good job, though.

    Taking Putin as representative of masculinity is as deranged as citing Hitler as the archetypal vegetarian*.

    *The definition has changed over the years, hence his diet not being what today would be considered vegetarian.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,529

    First

    No women's only lists required in the LibDems, they have 9 out of 13 women MPs.

    Only after being embarrassed about the least diverse Parliamentary Party of the modern era in 2015.

    From memory 100% of their elected MPs after that election were white, middle aged men who were in the same age bracket too.
    To be fair Mr R, that was only one of their embarrassments about that election.
  • TazTaz Posts: 5,353

    First

    No women's only lists required in the LibDems, they have 9 out of 13 women MPs.

    Only after being embarrassed about the least diverse Parliamentary Party of the modern era in 2015.

    From memory 100% of their elected MPs after that election were white, middle aged men who were in the same age bracket too.
    The Lib Dem PLP was certainly late to the party when it came to gender balance. Still is when it comes to persons of colour. It is very very white.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,637

    First

    No women's only lists required in the LibDems, they have 9 out of 13 women MPs.

    Only after being embarrassed about the least diverse Parliamentary Party of the modern era in 2015.

    From memory 100% of their elected MPs after that election were white, middle aged men who were in the same age bracket too.
    To be fair, in 2015 the only priority was saving some seats....
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,637
    Roger said:

    First

    No women's only lists required in the LibDems, they have 9 out of 13 women MPs.

    A USP we should have heard more of.
    I agree there
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,112
    Could someone explain why having more men than women is bad, but having more women than men is good?

    By the rationale (I use the term generously) of the demographic engineers in favour of women-only shortlists for parties with fewer female than male MPs, the Lib Dems should adopt male-only shortlists to address their imbalance.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Could someone explain why having more men than women is bad, but having more women than men is good?

    By the rationale (I use the term generously) of the demographic engineers in favour of women-only shortlists for parties with fewer female than male MPs, the Lib Dems should adopt male-only shortlists to address their imbalance.

    Men are bad because they have traditionally been dominant, despite being a minority.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,529
    Taz said:

    First

    No women's only lists required in the LibDems, they have 9 out of 13 women MPs.

    Only after being embarrassed about the least diverse Parliamentary Party of the modern era in 2015.

    From memory 100% of their elected MPs after that election were white, middle aged men who were in the same age bracket too.
    The Lib Dem PLP was certainly late to the party when it came to gender balance. Still is when it comes to persons of colour. It is very very white.
    They do have someone of Palestinian heritage, though.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 6,373
    edited May 17
    Taz said:

    First

    No women's only lists required in the LibDems, they have 9 out of 13 women MPs.

    Only after being embarrassed about the least diverse Parliamentary Party of the modern era in 2015.

    From memory 100% of their elected MPs after that election were white, middle aged men who were in the same age bracket too.
    The Lib Dem PLP was certainly late to the party when it came to gender balance. Still is when it comes to persons of colour. It is very very white.
    The problem with stressing over gender balance is that while MPs like Sarah Olney seem very respectable and interesting, it promotes the notion that other people like Wera Hobhouse might be a good idea for aiding the gender balance, but they also tip the party in the batshit crazy balance stakes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    Taz said:

    First

    No women's only lists required in the LibDems, they have 9 out of 13 women MPs.

    Only after being embarrassed about the least diverse Parliamentary Party of the modern era in 2015.

    From memory 100% of their elected MPs after that election were white, middle aged men who were in the same age bracket too.
    The Lib Dem PLP was certainly late to the party when it came to gender balance. Still is when it comes to persons of colour. It is very very white.
    The LD heartland now is posh, expensive Remain voting suburbs or commuter towns and rural areas eg Oxford West and Abingdon, Richmond Park, Chesham and Amersham, Westmoreland and Lonsdale and Shropshire North.

    Few ethnic minorities in either
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,637
    Taz said:

    First

    No women's only lists required in the LibDems, they have 9 out of 13 women MPs.

    Only after being embarrassed about the least diverse Parliamentary Party of the modern era in 2015.

    From memory 100% of their elected MPs after that election were white, middle aged men who were in the same age bracket too.
    The Lib Dem PLP was certainly late to the party when it came to gender balance. Still is when it comes to persons of colour. It is very very white.
    They may have been late to the party, but the figures don't lie now.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,620
    Liz Truss to announce plan to unilaterally abandon parts of Northern Ireland protocol – UK politics live https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/may/17/northern-ireland-protocol-brexit-liz-truss-boris-johnson-uk-politics-latest

    @guardian Subtext: Brexit has already failed.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 2,812

    Taz said:

    First

    No women's only lists required in the LibDems, they have 9 out of 13 women MPs.

    Only after being embarrassed about the least diverse Parliamentary Party of the modern era in 2015.

    From memory 100% of their elected MPs after that election were white, middle aged men who were in the same age bracket too.
    The Lib Dem PLP was certainly late to the party when it came to gender balance. Still is when it comes to persons of colour. It is very very white.
    They do have someone of Palestinian heritage, though.
    And someone of East African Indian heritage. (Munira Wilson for the posters who haven't done their homework).
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,080

    Taz said:

    First

    No women's only lists required in the LibDems, they have 9 out of 13 women MPs.

    Only after being embarrassed about the least diverse Parliamentary Party of the modern era in 2015.

    From memory 100% of their elected MPs after that election were white, middle aged men who were in the same age bracket too.
    The Lib Dem PLP was certainly late to the party when it came to gender balance. Still is when it comes to persons of colour. It is very very white.
    They do have someone of Palestinian heritage, though.
    And another who is clearly NOT white.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,529
    edited May 17
    Scott_xP said:

    Liz Truss to announce plan to unilaterally abandon parts of Northern Ireland protocol – UK politics live https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/may/17/northern-ireland-protocol-brexit-liz-truss-boris-johnson-uk-politics-latest

    @guardian Subtext: Brexit has already failed.

    So, as many of us thought, the 'oven ready' deal already had a rotten element which couldn't be magicked away.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    edited May 17

    Scott_xP said:

    Liz Truss to announce plan to unilaterally abandon parts of Northern Ireland protocol – UK politics live https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/may/17/northern-ireland-protocol-brexit-liz-truss-boris-johnson-uk-politics-latest

    @guardian Subtext: Brexit has already failed.

    So as many of us thought, the 'oven ready' deal already had a rotten element which couldn't be magicked away.
    Which, as certain people have been saying here for weeks, months and probably years, was intrinsic to the sequencing - the NIP was always supposed to be revisited once the FTA was done.

    The "oven ready deal" got us out of the EU (literally, getting Brexit done). It didn't mean we'd never need to talk to the EU about anything else in future!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,620
    Don't expect a big thumbs up from the DUP today

    A DUP source told @Telegraph the promise of a law without its tabling wouldn't "cut it"

    "Boris has already made commitments and hasn’t delivered them. Most people will say: ‘Sorry, we’ve been here before. Once bitten, twice shy'"


    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1526493683079602178
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    edited May 17

    Taz said:

    First

    No women's only lists required in the LibDems, they have 9 out of 13 women MPs.

    Only after being embarrassed about the least diverse Parliamentary Party of the modern era in 2015.

    From memory 100% of their elected MPs after that election were white, middle aged men who were in the same age bracket too.
    The Lib Dem PLP was certainly late to the party when it came to gender balance. Still is when it comes to persons of colour. It is very very white.
    They do have someone of Palestinian heritage, though.
    Layla Moran is of Palestinian Christian heritage though
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,529
    Scott_xP said:

    Don't expect a big thumbs up from the DUP today

    A DUP source told @Telegraph the promise of a law without its tabling wouldn't "cut it"

    "Boris has already made commitments and hasn’t delivered them. Most people will say: ‘Sorry, we’ve been here before. Once bitten, twice shy'"


    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1526493683079602178

    Well, if even the DUP don't believe him .......
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 6,373

    Scott_xP said:

    Liz Truss to announce plan to unilaterally abandon parts of Northern Ireland protocol – UK politics live https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/may/17/northern-ireland-protocol-brexit-liz-truss-boris-johnson-uk-politics-latest

    @guardian Subtext: Brexit has already failed.

    So, as many of us thought, the 'oven ready' deal already had a rotten element which couldn't be magicked away.
    The deal comes with safeguards. If the safeguards are used, how is that a bad thing?

    If the safeguards fail, that is a problem, but if you design something with safeguards and the safeguards kick into gear when required is that a failure?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 3,994
    edited May 17
    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    First

    No women's only lists required in the LibDems, they have 9 out of 13 women MPs.

    Only after being embarrassed about the least diverse Parliamentary Party of the modern era in 2015.

    From memory 100% of their elected MPs after that election were white, middle aged men who were in the same age bracket too.
    The Lib Dem PLP was certainly late to the party when it came to gender balance. Still is when it comes to persons of colour. It is very very white.
    They do have someone of Palestinian heritage, though.
    Layla Moran is of Palestinian Christian heritage though
    Mistake on post, now corrected so withdrawing my correction
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,170

    First

    No women's only lists required in the LibDems, they have 9 out of 13 women MPs.

    Only after being embarrassed about the least diverse Parliamentary Party of the modern era in 2015.

    From memory 100% of their elected MPs after that election were white, middle aged men who were in the same age bracket too.
    I mean they did have so few MP's they could barely fill a taxi after 2015...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,529
    edited May 17
    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    First

    No women's only lists required in the LibDems, they have 9 out of 13 women MPs.

    Only after being embarrassed about the least diverse Parliamentary Party of the modern era in 2015.

    From memory 100% of their elected MPs after that election were white, middle aged men who were in the same age bracket too.
    The Lib Dem PLP was certainly late to the party when it came to gender balance. Still is when it comes to persons of colour. It is very very white.
    They do have someone of Palestinian heritage, though.
    Layla Moran is of Palestinian Christian heritage though
    How about the MP for Twickenham, Munira Hassam Wilson (née Hassam)

    (Started this post before HYUFD recognised his error and edited his!)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,722
    edited May 17
    The DUP aren't interested.
    Their only aim is to run the clock down to fresh elections.
    They've implied as much.
    Yet no one seems to have read between the lines.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 5,884
    Leon said:

    I despise feminism as much as the next red-blooded Briton, and think women should be barefoot, squealing and bent over the Aga, as we all do, however it is hard to argue that masculine politics is having a good run right now, as the macho idiot Putin sends his brutes into Ukraine

    Perhaps it is time for the women to run the show. At least for a while. Tho not Kamala Harris, please

    Yes. Time for women leaders in Russia, Cuba, North Korea, China, Congo, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, Uganda, Somalia, Syria and quite a few others.

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 3,994
    GIN1138 said:

    First

    No women's only lists required in the LibDems, they have 9 out of 13 women MPs.

    Only after being embarrassed about the least diverse Parliamentary Party of the modern era in 2015.

    From memory 100% of their elected MPs after that election were white, middle aged men who were in the same age bracket too.
    I mean they did have so few MP's they could barely fill a taxi after 2015...
    They order 2 cabs now, and a shit load of prosecco and kittens.
    It's a brave new world
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    edited May 17

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    First

    No women's only lists required in the LibDems, they have 9 out of 13 women MPs.

    Only after being embarrassed about the least diverse Parliamentary Party of the modern era in 2015.

    From memory 100% of their elected MPs after that election were white, middle aged men who were in the same age bracket too.
    The Lib Dem PLP was certainly late to the party when it came to gender balance. Still is when it comes to persons of colour. It is very very white.
    They do have someone of Palestinian heritage, though.
    Layla Moran is of Palestinian Christian heritage though
    How about the MP for Twickenham, Munira Hassam Wilson (née Hassam)

    (Started this post before HYUFD recognised his error and edited his!)
    1 out of 13.

    Though inevitably Labour will always have more ethnic minority MPs than the Tories or LDs as they have the most inner city MPs and the highest percentage of ethnic minorities is in the inner cities
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 6,373
    dixiedean said:

    The DUP aren't interested.
    Their only aim is to run the clock down to fresh elections.
    They've implied as much.
    Yet no one seems to have read between the lines.

    That is their prerogative. That is how power sharing in the Good Friday Agreement works.

    Either make the DUP happy to share power by compromising enough to please them, or Stormont can't sit. That is what the GFA says.

    So what is the EU's proposal to make the DUP happy?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,529
    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    I despise feminism as much as the next red-blooded Briton, and think women should be barefoot, squealing and bent over the Aga, as we all do, however it is hard to argue that masculine politics is having a good run right now, as the macho idiot Putin sends his brutes into Ukraine

    Perhaps it is time for the women to run the show. At least for a while. Tho not Kamala Harris, please

    Yes. Time for women leaders in Russia, Cuba, North Korea, China, Congo, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, Uganda, Somalia, Syria and quite a few others.

    While I agree about now, at least Russia had Catherine the Great when it was equally unlikely. And the Chinese have had a couple of powerful Dowager Empresses, unless my memory is at fault.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,138
    edited May 17
    For an alternative take on the NI protocol, see here...

    On Brexit, a real cost to business is the fact that if you export from say France to Germany for a project (Or any two countries within the EU), the goods can no longer be zero rated across between the EU countries if you're an ex EU (As we are now) supplier.

    We're in the process of sorting this by obtaining Dutch VAT status for our companies - and potentially we'll have to grab other EU nation VAT status depending on stuff only tax specialists fully grasp. I do VAT returns, though intra-EU VAT is a bit of a dark art even for myself.

    The upshot is it will probably cost us between 2 and 10 grand a year to administer what was previously a simple intrastat declaration which took about an hour of my time every quarter. The alternative would be our business being completely unviable.

    A real cost of Brexit for British business, and not needed when general inflation on metals etc is through the roof.

    I believe businesses within Northern Ireland avoid this nonsense as they're part of the EU VAT orbit so can carry on with intrastat

    Obviously noone cares about this, but it's a pain for British exporters where you're buying and selling within the EU.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 14,371

    First

    No women's only lists required in the LibDems, they have 9 out of 13 women MPs.

    Do the LDs still used Zipped shortlists?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,889
    edited May 17

    Scott_xP said:

    Don't expect a big thumbs up from the DUP today

    A DUP source told @Telegraph the promise of a law without its tabling wouldn't "cut it"

    "Boris has already made commitments and hasn’t delivered them. Most people will say: ‘Sorry, we’ve been here before. Once bitten, twice shy'"


    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1526493683079602178

    Well, if even the DUP don't believe him .......
    It can't be exaggerated how debilitating for a country it is to have an indiscriminate liar as Prime Minister.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,722

    dixiedean said:

    The DUP aren't interested.
    Their only aim is to run the clock down to fresh elections.
    They've implied as much.
    Yet no one seems to have read between the lines.

    That is their prerogative. That is how power sharing in the Good Friday Agreement works.

    Either make the DUP happy to share power by compromising enough to please them, or Stormont can't sit. That is what the GFA says.

    So what is the EU's proposal to make the DUP happy?
    It isn't the EU's job to make the DUP happy.
    Just as it isn't ours to make the Flemish Independence lot happy.
    It's an internal issue of a sovereign nation.
    Or isn't it?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,529
    Pulpstar said:

    On Brexit, a real cost to business is the fact that if you export from say France to Germany for a project (Or any two countries within the EU), the goods can no longer be zero rated across between the EU countries if you're an ex EU (As we are now) supplier.

    We're in the process of sorting this by obtaining Dutch VAT status for our companies - and potentially we'll have to grab other EU nation VAT status depending on stuff only tax specialists fully grasp. I do VAT returns, though intra-EU VAT is a bit of a dark art even for myself.

    The upshot is it will probably cost us between 2 and 10 grand a year to administer what was previously a simple intrastat declaration which took about an hour of my time every quarter. The alternative would be our business being completely unviable.

    A real cost of Brexit for British business, and not needed when general inflation on metals etc is through the roof.

    I believe businesses within Northern Ireland avoid this nonsense as they're part of the EU VAT orbit.

    Obviously noone cares about this, but it's a pain for British exporters where you're buying and selling within the EU.

    While my sympathies are with you, I believe Brexiteer Ministers would ask what efforts you have made to export to Ecuador, or similar.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 6,373

    Scott_xP said:

    Don't expect a big thumbs up from the DUP today

    A DUP source told @Telegraph the promise of a law without its tabling wouldn't "cut it"

    "Boris has already made commitments and hasn’t delivered them. Most people will say: ‘Sorry, we’ve been here before. Once bitten, twice shy'"


    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1526493683079602178

    Well, if even the DUP don't believe him .......
    If I was them I'd be saying even the tabling of a bill wouldn't cut it and that they should wait until any such law gets Royal Assent and implemented before power sharing could restart.

    Especially when Lords are threatening to block any action for a year, they should keep their own powder dry until the requisite actions are done and not just promised.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 6,373
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    The DUP aren't interested.
    Their only aim is to run the clock down to fresh elections.
    They've implied as much.
    Yet no one seems to have read between the lines.

    That is their prerogative. That is how power sharing in the Good Friday Agreement works.

    Either make the DUP happy to share power by compromising enough to please them, or Stormont can't sit. That is what the GFA says.

    So what is the EU's proposal to make the DUP happy?
    It isn't the EU's job to make the DUP happy.
    Just as it isn't ours to make the Flemish Independence lot happy.
    It's an internal issue of a sovereign nation.
    Or isn't it?
    The EU are claiming to want the GFA respected.

    The GFA requires respecting both communities.

    So no, it isn't internal, it is the root of the issue.

    If the EU wanted to butt out of NI and the GFA they could have done so from the start and the Protocol wouldn't exist.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 14,371

    First

    No women's only lists required in the LibDems, they have 9 out of 13 women MPs.

    Only after being embarrassed about the least diverse Parliamentary Party of the modern era in 2015.

    From memory 100% of their elected MPs after that election were white, middle aged men who were in the same age bracket too.
    Middle age expands. John Pugh was 67 !

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,138
    edited May 17

    Pulpstar said:

    On Brexit, a real cost to business is the fact that if you export from say France to Germany for a project (Or any two countries within the EU), the goods can no longer be zero rated across between the EU countries if you're an ex EU (As we are now) supplier.

    We're in the process of sorting this by obtaining Dutch VAT status for our companies - and potentially we'll have to grab other EU nation VAT status depending on stuff only tax specialists fully grasp. I do VAT returns, though intra-EU VAT is a bit of a dark art even for myself.

    The upshot is it will probably cost us between 2 and 10 grand a year to administer what was previously a simple intrastat declaration which took about an hour of my time every quarter. The alternative would be our business being completely unviable.

    A real cost of Brexit for British business, and not needed when general inflation on metals etc is through the roof.

    I believe businesses within Northern Ireland avoid this nonsense as they're part of the EU VAT orbit.

    Obviously noone cares about this, but it's a pain for British exporters where you're buying and selling within the EU.

    While my sympathies are with you, I believe Brexiteer Ministers would ask what efforts you have made to export to Ecuador, or similar.
    We export everywhere. It's a problem that doesn't actually spring up anywhere else - it's created entirely by the EU single market existing. If it didn't exist, there wouldn't be a problem because everything would just be 'rest of world'. However it does exist and as it does and as we're so near you're better off being in the system.

    I expect other businesses, suppliers and customers are merrily ignoring this and continuing to just zero as was all over the EU - but it's technically wrong to do this and there's always some jobsworth in a compliance unit of a big company somewhere along the line.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,529
    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Don't expect a big thumbs up from the DUP today

    A DUP source told @Telegraph the promise of a law without its tabling wouldn't "cut it"

    "Boris has already made commitments and hasn’t delivered them. Most people will say: ‘Sorry, we’ve been here before. Once bitten, twice shy'"


    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1526493683079602178

    Well, if even the DUP don't believe him .......
    It can't be exaggerated how debillitating for a country it is to have an indiscriminate liar as Prime Minister.
    Should the descriptor be 'indiscriminate' or 'inveterate'?

    Whichever, I wonder how it goes down on the doorsteps? Other than among those for whom his dishonesty simply underlines the idea that 'all politicians lie'?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,722
    edited May 17

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    The DUP aren't interested.
    Their only aim is to run the clock down to fresh elections.
    They've implied as much.
    Yet no one seems to have read between the lines.

    That is their prerogative. That is how power sharing in the Good Friday Agreement works.

    Either make the DUP happy to share power by compromising enough to please them, or Stormont can't sit. That is what the GFA says.

    So what is the EU's proposal to make the DUP happy?
    It isn't the EU's job to make the DUP happy.
    Just as it isn't ours to make the Flemish Independence lot happy.
    It's an internal issue of a sovereign nation.
    Or isn't it?
    The EU are claiming to want the GFA respected.

    The GFA requires respecting both communities.

    So no, it isn't internal, it is the root of the issue.

    If the EU wanted to butt out of NI and the GFA they could have done so from the start and the Protocol wouldn't exist.
    Far be it from me to suggest that the PM shouldn't have agreed to such a stupid deal then.
    Though I know you think it was brilliant and all consequences don't matter.
    So it's pointless really.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 3,839
    edited May 17
    My inner statto wonders about the inference drawn here. Say candidates were selected at random (50% male, 50% female) then having six female by-election winners in a row is a ~1.5% chance. But in Copeland all serious candidates were female, so ~3% chance for all female winners over 5 remaining elections if there was no bias towards female winners (in the remaining elections, the frontrunners were one male one female). Looks potentially significant, but not super clearcut. Given most parties are a bit embarassed by a lack of female MPs (not the LDs, they're just embarassed by a lack of MPs in general) there could be an incentive to put women up, particularly for seats with a good chance. There's also the fact that some of the men were demonstrable idiots, at least in the campaigns (Goldsmith) or arguably a poor match for the constituency (Paul Williams).

    TLDR: I'm not yet convinced by this and I won't be betting on every woman contesting a by-election.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 6,373
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On Brexit, a real cost to business is the fact that if you export from say France to Germany for a project (Or any two countries within the EU), the goods can no longer be zero rated across between the EU countries if you're an ex EU (As we are now) supplier.

    We're in the process of sorting this by obtaining Dutch VAT status for our companies - and potentially we'll have to grab other EU nation VAT status depending on stuff only tax specialists fully grasp. I do VAT returns, though intra-EU VAT is a bit of a dark art even for myself.

    The upshot is it will probably cost us between 2 and 10 grand a year to administer what was previously a simple intrastat declaration which took about an hour of my time every quarter. The alternative would be our business being completely unviable.

    A real cost of Brexit for British business, and not needed when general inflation on metals etc is through the roof.

    I believe businesses within Northern Ireland avoid this nonsense as they're part of the EU VAT orbit.

    Obviously noone cares about this, but it's a pain for British exporters where you're buying and selling within the EU.

    While my sympathies are with you, I believe Brexiteer Ministers would ask what efforts you have made to export to Ecuador, or similar.
    We export everywhere. It's a problem that doesn't actually spring up anywhere else - it's created entirely by the EU single market existing. If it didn't exist, there wouldn't be a problem because everything would just be 'rest of world'. However it does exist and as it does and as we're so near you're better off being in the system.
    Why?

    If you're perfectly fine handling the rest of the world, what's wrong with France and Germany being RoW too?

    Your logic is like saying since the USA exists that Canada should be a part of it. Just because a market exists does not mean you need to be a part of it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 29,754

    Leon said:

    I despise feminism as much as the next red-blooded Briton, and think women should be barefoot, squealing and bent over the Aga, as we all do, however it is hard to argue that masculine politics is having a good run right now, as the macho idiot Putin sends his brutes into Ukraine

    Perhaps it is time for the women to run the show. At least for a while. Tho not Kamala Harris, please

    I'm not sure President Le Pen would have been a good thing.

    And the only good thing that can be said about GDR Merkel now is that Gazprom Zchroder was worse.
    Keir Starmer isn't very good but at least he's not Rebecca Long-Bailey.

    Some women can be good, some women not so much. No different to men really.
    It's not so much 'better' or 'worse' but if you have a burning desire for the world to be more peaceful you'll want to see more women in positions of power. And I'm happy to reverse this and say that anybody who doesn't want to see more women in positions of power does not - regardless of any protests to the contrary - have a burning desire for a more peaceful world. They might quite fancy peace on earth but there is no burning desire for such. It's not a priority for them. Other things are. Eg tax cuts or border control or the BBC licence fee.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 52,574

    Visegrád 24
    @visegrad24
    ·
    37m
    A chemical factory is one fire in Novosibirsk, Russia.

    The wave of suspicious fires in Russian continues.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 35,146
    Employment numbers look solid, I also spy a 1.2% increase in real wages including bonuses, sucks for the public sector but it seems that the private sector wage growth is just about keeping up with inflation.

    I remember we used to get a regular series on state vs private sector employment which peaked under Labour at just under 25% and fell to ca. 17% under the the coalition and later Tory government. I wonder what that number is today, at 17% we get 5 private sector tax contributions for each public sector employee and at 25% it's just three (hence Labour running a huge deficit and Osborne bringing the budget almost into balance). It feels as though we've had a huge expansion of the state during COVID and now it's time to roll it all back, the 90k job cuts should be seen as just the start. All throughout the state sector unproductive people need to be moved on so they can find work in the private sector.

    A simple move would be to institute a 1 in 2 out rule across the whole public administration body, including the NHS and care services. I'd even suggest that to hire a new nurse or doctor the hospital should be obliged to move on two non-front line staff as part of the efficiency savings. It's an extremely blunt tool, yet within a couple of years the state will suddenly be cut down to size and we'll have brought the budget back into balance allowing us to actually pay for things like new infrastructure to replace the crumbling schools, roads and ancient railways.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 6,373
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    The DUP aren't interested.
    Their only aim is to run the clock down to fresh elections.
    They've implied as much.
    Yet no one seems to have read between the lines.

    That is their prerogative. That is how power sharing in the Good Friday Agreement works.

    Either make the DUP happy to share power by compromising enough to please them, or Stormont can't sit. That is what the GFA says.

    So what is the EU's proposal to make the DUP happy?
    It isn't the EU's job to make the DUP happy.
    Just as it isn't ours to make the Flemish Independence lot happy.
    It's an internal issue of a sovereign nation.
    Or isn't it?
    The EU are claiming to want the GFA respected.

    The GFA requires respecting both communities.

    So no, it isn't internal, it is the root of the issue.

    If the EU wanted to butt out of NI and the GFA they could have done so from the start and the Protocol wouldn't exist.
    Far be it from me to suggest that the PM shouldn't have agreed to such a stupid deal then.
    Though I know you think it was brilliant and all consequences don't matter.
    So it's pointless really.
    Correction, I don't think consequences don't matter, I think consequences should be weighed and dealt with.

    Even if something has negative consequences, if its worth doing because the pros outweigh the cons, then it can be a worthwhile venture.

    The deal wasn't all brilliant but it was infinitely better than the backstop and came with safeguards that should be used now. Plus it was always meant to be renegotiated once Brexit was done, that was part of the sequencing plan all along.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 14,615

    Pulpstar said:

    On Brexit, a real cost to business is the fact that if you export from say France to Germany for a project (Or any two countries within the EU), the goods can no longer be zero rated across between the EU countries if you're an ex EU (As we are now) supplier.

    We're in the process of sorting this by obtaining Dutch VAT status for our companies - and potentially we'll have to grab other EU nation VAT status depending on stuff only tax specialists fully grasp. I do VAT returns, though intra-EU VAT is a bit of a dark art even for myself.

    The upshot is it will probably cost us between 2 and 10 grand a year to administer what was previously a simple intrastat declaration which took about an hour of my time every quarter. The alternative would be our business being completely unviable.

    A real cost of Brexit for British business, and not needed when general inflation on metals etc is through the roof.

    I believe businesses within Northern Ireland avoid this nonsense as they're part of the EU VAT orbit.

    Obviously noone cares about this, but it's a pain for British exporters where you're buying and selling within the EU.

    While my sympathies are with you, I believe Brexiteer Ministers would ask what efforts you have made to export to Ecuador, or similar.
    And to be fair those wfh types would probably just be wondering back and forth to the fridge doing nothing productive if they did not have some VAT forms to fill in anyway.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,167
    MattW said:

    First

    No women's only lists required in the LibDems, they have 9 out of 13 women MPs.

    Do the LDs still used Zipped shortlists?
    That was for EU elections, I think. We no longer have those.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 35,146
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    The DUP aren't interested.
    Their only aim is to run the clock down to fresh elections.
    They've implied as much.
    Yet no one seems to have read between the lines.

    That is their prerogative. That is how power sharing in the Good Friday Agreement works.

    Either make the DUP happy to share power by compromising enough to please them, or Stormont can't sit. That is what the GFA says.

    So what is the EU's proposal to make the DUP happy?
    It isn't the EU's job to make the DUP happy.
    Just as it isn't ours to make the Flemish Independence lot happy.
    It's an internal issue of a sovereign nation.
    Or isn't it?
    Hmm, under the terms of the GFA there needs to be a solution all communities can live with so it is sort of their problem just as it would be our problem if SF were unhappy with anything that intended to create a land border.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,138
    edited May 17

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On Brexit, a real cost to business is the fact that if you export from say France to Germany for a project (Or any two countries within the EU), the goods can no longer be zero rated across between the EU countries if you're an ex EU (As we are now) supplier.

    We're in the process of sorting this by obtaining Dutch VAT status for our companies - and potentially we'll have to grab other EU nation VAT status depending on stuff only tax specialists fully grasp. I do VAT returns, though intra-EU VAT is a bit of a dark art even for myself.

    The upshot is it will probably cost us between 2 and 10 grand a year to administer what was previously a simple intrastat declaration which took about an hour of my time every quarter. The alternative would be our business being completely unviable.

    A real cost of Brexit for British business, and not needed when general inflation on metals etc is through the roof.

    I believe businesses within Northern Ireland avoid this nonsense as they're part of the EU VAT orbit.

    Obviously noone cares about this, but it's a pain for British exporters where you're buying and selling within the EU.

    While my sympathies are with you, I believe Brexiteer Ministers would ask what efforts you have made to export to Ecuador, or similar.
    We export everywhere. It's a problem that doesn't actually spring up anywhere else - it's created entirely by the EU single market existing. If it didn't exist, there wouldn't be a problem because everything would just be 'rest of world'. However it does exist and as it does and as we're so near you're better off being in the system.
    Why?

    If you're perfectly fine handling the rest of the world, what's wrong with France and Germany being RoW too?

    Your logic is like saying since the USA exists that Canada should be a part of it. Just because a market exists does not mean you need to be a part of it.
    Well I agree that's how it should work, and how I thought it did but it doesn't !
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 6,373
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    I despise feminism as much as the next red-blooded Briton, and think women should be barefoot, squealing and bent over the Aga, as we all do, however it is hard to argue that masculine politics is having a good run right now, as the macho idiot Putin sends his brutes into Ukraine

    Perhaps it is time for the women to run the show. At least for a while. Tho not Kamala Harris, please

    I'm not sure President Le Pen would have been a good thing.

    And the only good thing that can be said about GDR Merkel now is that Gazprom Zchroder was worse.
    Keir Starmer isn't very good but at least he's not Rebecca Long-Bailey.

    Some women can be good, some women not so much. No different to men really.
    It's not so much 'better' or 'worse' but if you have a burning desire for the world to be more peaceful you'll want to see more women in positions of power. And I'm happy to reverse this and say that anybody who doesn't want to see more women in positions of power does not - regardless of any protests to the contrary - have a burning desire for a more peaceful world. They might quite fancy peace on earth but there is no burning desire for such. It's not a priority for them. Other things are. Eg tax cuts or border control or the BBC licence fee.
    I think that's a really sexist and ignorant attitude.

    Women aren't automatically more peaceful than men, nor is peace automatically better than fighting.

    When Argentina invaded the Falklands Islands they were betting on Britain not fighting a war to regain them. They judged our (female) Prime Minister wrongly and our female Prime Minister quite rightly chose war over peace there as it was the right thing to do.

    If Michael Foot or Tam Dalyell was PM instead of Thatcher then we'd have had fewer female leaders, more 'peace' but the 'peace' would have been worse than being prepared to fight.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 35,146
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    I despise feminism as much as the next red-blooded Briton, and think women should be barefoot, squealing and bent over the Aga, as we all do, however it is hard to argue that masculine politics is having a good run right now, as the macho idiot Putin sends his brutes into Ukraine

    Perhaps it is time for the women to run the show. At least for a while. Tho not Kamala Harris, please

    I'm not sure President Le Pen would have been a good thing.

    And the only good thing that can be said about GDR Merkel now is that Gazprom Zchroder was worse.
    Keir Starmer isn't very good but at least he's not Rebecca Long-Bailey.

    Some women can be good, some women not so much. No different to men really.
    It's not so much 'better' or 'worse' but if you have a burning desire for the world to be more peaceful you'll want to see more women in positions of power. And I'm happy to reverse this and say that anybody who doesn't want to see more women in positions of power does not - regardless of any protests to the contrary - have a burning desire for a more peaceful world. They might quite fancy peace on earth but there is no burning desire for such. It's not a priority for them. Other things are. Eg tax cuts or border control or the BBC licence fee.
    Isn't the Finnish PM the most pro-NATO voice in Finland? She's certainly got no "burning desire for peace". Your simplistic characterisation of women as all identikit peace warriors is laughable. Women, just like men, have got a huge range of complex thoughts on war, peace and everything else.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    .
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On Brexit, a real cost to business is the fact that if you export from say France to Germany for a project (Or any two countries within the EU), the goods can no longer be zero rated across between the EU countries if you're an ex EU (As we are now) supplier.

    We're in the process of sorting this by obtaining Dutch VAT status for our companies - and potentially we'll have to grab other EU nation VAT status depending on stuff only tax specialists fully grasp. I do VAT returns, though intra-EU VAT is a bit of a dark art even for myself.

    The upshot is it will probably cost us between 2 and 10 grand a year to administer what was previously a simple intrastat declaration which took about an hour of my time every quarter. The alternative would be our business being completely unviable.

    A real cost of Brexit for British business, and not needed when general inflation on metals etc is through the roof.

    I believe businesses within Northern Ireland avoid this nonsense as they're part of the EU VAT orbit.

    Obviously noone cares about this, but it's a pain for British exporters where you're buying and selling within the EU.

    While my sympathies are with you, I believe Brexiteer Ministers would ask what efforts you have made to export to Ecuador, or similar.
    We export everywhere. It's a problem that doesn't actually spring up anywhere else - it's created entirely by the EU single market existing. If it didn't exist, there wouldn't be a problem because everything would just be 'rest of world'. However it does exist and as it does and as we're so near you're better off being in the system.
    Why?

    If you're perfectly fine handling the rest of the world, what's wrong with France and Germany being RoW too?

    Your logic is like saying since the USA exists that Canada should be a part of it. Just because a market exists does not mean you need to be a part of it.
    Well I agree that's how it should work, and how I thought it did but it doesn't !
    What you appear to be saying is that the single market isn't a single market - otherwise, once goods were in it they would be in it and there wouldn't be anything else to say.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,375

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Don't expect a big thumbs up from the DUP today

    A DUP source told @Telegraph the promise of a law without its tabling wouldn't "cut it"

    "Boris has already made commitments and hasn’t delivered them. Most people will say: ‘Sorry, we’ve been here before. Once bitten, twice shy'"


    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1526493683079602178

    Well, if even the DUP don't believe him .......
    It can't be exaggerated how debillitating for a country it is to have an indiscriminate liar as Prime Minister.
    Should the descriptor be 'indiscriminate' or 'inveterate'?

    Whichever, I wonder how it goes down on the doorsteps? Other than among those for whom his dishonesty simply underlines the idea that 'all politicians lie'?
    I know several Blue Wall Conservatives, including recent party members, for whom it's a killer criterion. They would vote Tory but simply refuse to vote for people who they believe lie on a regular basis.

    I doubt if many see it in quite such absolutist terms. But the secondary effect of being particularly sceptical about Government promises is probably quite widespread, and universal among other governments and political parties like the DUP.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 52,574
    edited May 17
    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    I despise feminism as much as the next red-blooded Briton, and think women should be barefoot, squealing and bent over the Aga, as we all do, however it is hard to argue that masculine politics is having a good run right now, as the macho idiot Putin sends his brutes into Ukraine

    Perhaps it is time for the women to run the show. At least for a while. Tho not Kamala Harris, please

    I'm not sure President Le Pen would have been a good thing.

    And the only good thing that can be said about GDR Merkel now is that Gazprom Zchroder was worse.
    Keir Starmer isn't very good but at least he's not Rebecca Long-Bailey.

    Some women can be good, some women not so much. No different to men really.
    It's not so much 'better' or 'worse' but if you have a burning desire for the world to be more peaceful you'll want to see more women in positions of power. And I'm happy to reverse this and say that anybody who doesn't want to see more women in positions of power does not - regardless of any protests to the contrary - have a burning desire for a more peaceful world. They might quite fancy peace on earth but there is no burning desire for such. It's not a priority for them. Other things are. Eg tax cuts or border control or the BBC licence fee.
    Isn't the Finnish PM the most pro-NATO voice in Finland? She's certainly got no "burning desire for peace". Your simplistic characterisation of women as all identikit peace warriors is laughable. Women, just like men, have got a huge range of complex thoughts on war, peace and everything else.
    Boudica says 'hi' and 'let's get at 'em'.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 4,780

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    I despise feminism as much as the next red-blooded Briton, and think women should be barefoot, squealing and bent over the Aga, as we all do, however it is hard to argue that masculine politics is having a good run right now, as the macho idiot Putin sends his brutes into Ukraine

    Perhaps it is time for the women to run the show. At least for a while. Tho not Kamala Harris, please

    I'm not sure President Le Pen would have been a good thing.

    And the only good thing that can be said about GDR Merkel now is that Gazprom Zchroder was worse.
    Keir Starmer isn't very good but at least he's not Rebecca Long-Bailey.

    Some women can be good, some women not so much. No different to men really.
    It's not so much 'better' or 'worse' but if you have a burning desire for the world to be more peaceful you'll want to see more women in positions of power. And I'm happy to reverse this and say that anybody who doesn't want to see more women in positions of power does not - regardless of any protests to the contrary - have a burning desire for a more peaceful world. They might quite fancy peace on earth but there is no burning desire for such. It's not a priority for them. Other things are. Eg tax cuts or border control or the BBC licence fee.
    I think that's a really sexist and ignorant attitude.

    Women aren't automatically more peaceful than men, nor is peace automatically better than fighting.

    When Argentina invaded the Falklands Islands they were betting on Britain not fighting a war to regain them. They judged our (female) Prime Minister wrongly and our female Prime Minister quite rightly chose war over peace there as it was the right thing to do.

    If Michael Foot or Tam Dalyell was PM instead of Thatcher then we'd have had fewer female leaders, more 'peace' but the 'peace' would have been worse than being prepared to fight.
    For the record, Michael Foot consistently supported Thatcher's response to the invasion of the Falklands.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,722
    MaxPB said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    The DUP aren't interested.
    Their only aim is to run the clock down to fresh elections.
    They've implied as much.
    Yet no one seems to have read between the lines.

    That is their prerogative. That is how power sharing in the Good Friday Agreement works.

    Either make the DUP happy to share power by compromising enough to please them, or Stormont can't sit. That is what the GFA says.

    So what is the EU's proposal to make the DUP happy?
    It isn't the EU's job to make the DUP happy.
    Just as it isn't ours to make the Flemish Independence lot happy.
    It's an internal issue of a sovereign nation.
    Or isn't it?
    Hmm, under the terms of the GFA there needs to be a solution all communities can live with so it is sort of their problem just as it would be our problem if SF were unhappy with anything that intended to create a land border.
    Yes but.
    SF are happy. The EU seem to be happy. NI business and the majority of the electorate do too.
    It isn't the job of the contented to find a solution to an agreement they like.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    dixiedean said:

    MaxPB said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    The DUP aren't interested.
    Their only aim is to run the clock down to fresh elections.
    They've implied as much.
    Yet no one seems to have read between the lines.

    That is their prerogative. That is how power sharing in the Good Friday Agreement works.

    Either make the DUP happy to share power by compromising enough to please them, or Stormont can't sit. That is what the GFA says.

    So what is the EU's proposal to make the DUP happy?
    It isn't the EU's job to make the DUP happy.
    Just as it isn't ours to make the Flemish Independence lot happy.
    It's an internal issue of a sovereign nation.
    Or isn't it?
    Hmm, under the terms of the GFA there needs to be a solution all communities can live with so it is sort of their problem just as it would be our problem if SF were unhappy with anything that intended to create a land border.
    Yes but.
    SF are happy. The EU seem to be happy. NI business and the majority of the electorate do too.
    It isn't the job of the contented to find a solution to an agreement they like.
    If they want Stormont to function, it is.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 6,373
    dixiedean said:

    MaxPB said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    The DUP aren't interested.
    Their only aim is to run the clock down to fresh elections.
    They've implied as much.
    Yet no one seems to have read between the lines.

    That is their prerogative. That is how power sharing in the Good Friday Agreement works.

    Either make the DUP happy to share power by compromising enough to please them, or Stormont can't sit. That is what the GFA says.

    So what is the EU's proposal to make the DUP happy?
    It isn't the EU's job to make the DUP happy.
    Just as it isn't ours to make the Flemish Independence lot happy.
    It's an internal issue of a sovereign nation.
    Or isn't it?
    Hmm, under the terms of the GFA there needs to be a solution all communities can live with so it is sort of their problem just as it would be our problem if SF were unhappy with anything that intended to create a land border.
    Yes but.
    SF are happy. The EU seem to be happy. NI business and the majority of the electorate do too.
    It isn't the job of the contented to find a solution to an agreement they like.
    It is if they want power sharing.

    If you're calling to abolish the Good Friday Agreement then I'd be curious why? But if you're not, then yes power sharing involves making all parties happy not just those who already are.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 5,884

    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    I despise feminism as much as the next red-blooded Briton, and think women should be barefoot, squealing and bent over the Aga, as we all do, however it is hard to argue that masculine politics is having a good run right now, as the macho idiot Putin sends his brutes into Ukraine

    Perhaps it is time for the women to run the show. At least for a while. Tho not Kamala Harris, please

    Yes. Time for women leaders in Russia, Cuba, North Korea, China, Congo, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, Uganda, Somalia, Syria and quite a few others.

    While I agree about now, at least Russia had Catherine the Great when it was equally unlikely. And the Chinese have had a couple of powerful Dowager Empresses, unless my memory is at fault.
    A high proportion of modern women have reliably sane views on the subject of babies and children being dismembered by missiles and sons being returned in body bags.

  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 4,780
    edited May 17
    Selebian said:

    My inner statto wonders about the inference drawn here. Say candidates were selected at random (50% male, 50% female) then having six female by-election winners in a row is a ~1.5% chance. But in Copeland all serious candidates were female, so ~3% chance for all female winners over 5 remaining elections if there was no bias towards female winners (in the remaining elections, the frontrunners were one male one female). Looks potentially significant, but not super clearcut. Given most parties are a bit embarassed by a lack of female MPs (not the LDs, they're just embarassed by a lack of MPs in general) there could be an incentive to put women up, particularly for seats with a good chance. There's also the fact that some of the men were demonstrable idiots, at least in the campaigns (Goldsmith) or arguably a poor match for the constituency (Paul Williams).

    TLDR: I'm not yet convinced by this and I won't be betting on every woman contesting a by-election.

    Just over half of Labour MPs are female (104/202). Not too shabby. The equivalent number for the Tories is 87/365. Shabby. (2019 GE figures)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,722

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    I despise feminism as much as the next red-blooded Briton, and think women should be barefoot, squealing and bent over the Aga, as we all do, however it is hard to argue that masculine politics is having a good run right now, as the macho idiot Putin sends his brutes into Ukraine

    Perhaps it is time for the women to run the show. At least for a while. Tho not Kamala Harris, please

    I'm not sure President Le Pen would have been a good thing.

    And the only good thing that can be said about GDR Merkel now is that Gazprom Zchroder was worse.
    Keir Starmer isn't very good but at least he's not Rebecca Long-Bailey.

    Some women can be good, some women not so much. No different to men really.
    It's not so much 'better' or 'worse' but if you have a burning desire for the world to be more peaceful you'll want to see more women in positions of power. And I'm happy to reverse this and say that anybody who doesn't want to see more women in positions of power does not - regardless of any protests to the contrary - have a burning desire for a more peaceful world. They might quite fancy peace on earth but there is no burning desire for such. It's not a priority for them. Other things are. Eg tax cuts or border control or the BBC licence fee.
    I think that's a really sexist and ignorant attitude.

    Women aren't automatically more peaceful than men, nor is peace automatically better than fighting.

    When Argentina invaded the Falklands Islands they were betting on Britain not fighting a war to regain them. They judged our (female) Prime Minister wrongly and our female Prime Minister quite rightly chose war over peace there as it was the right thing to do.

    If Michael Foot or Tam Dalyell was PM instead of Thatcher then we'd have had fewer female leaders, more 'peace' but the 'peace' would have been worse than being prepared to fight.
    Here we are in complete agreement.
    If you want peace elect leaders who aren't angry.
    What is, or isn't, between their legs is utterly irrelevant.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 35,146
    edited May 17
    dixiedean said:

    MaxPB said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    The DUP aren't interested.
    Their only aim is to run the clock down to fresh elections.
    They've implied as much.
    Yet no one seems to have read between the lines.

    That is their prerogative. That is how power sharing in the Good Friday Agreement works.

    Either make the DUP happy to share power by compromising enough to please them, or Stormont can't sit. That is what the GFA says.

    So what is the EU's proposal to make the DUP happy?
    It isn't the EU's job to make the DUP happy.
    Just as it isn't ours to make the Flemish Independence lot happy.
    It's an internal issue of a sovereign nation.
    Or isn't it?
    Hmm, under the terms of the GFA there needs to be a solution all communities can live with so it is sort of their problem just as it would be our problem if SF were unhappy with anything that intended to create a land border.
    Yes but.
    SF are happy. The EU seem to be happy. NI business and the majority of the electorate do too.
    It isn't the job of the contented to find a solution to an agreement they like.
    Yes it is, under the GFA all parties need to be able to live with it in peace. So far the UDA hasn't kicked off but I'm not sure how much longer we can play with this kind of fire and hope they don't start bombing campaigns.

    And as a general point, it absolutely is the job of the contented to ensure that those who aren't can be given a pathway to contentment. It's basically saying that the wealthy middle classes shouldn't give a flying fuck about the poor because they're happy so who give a shit what the unhappy poor think.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 2,812

    dixiedean said:

    The DUP aren't interested.
    Their only aim is to run the clock down to fresh elections.
    They've implied as much.
    Yet no one seems to have read between the lines.

    That is their prerogative. That is how power sharing in the Good Friday Agreement works.

    Either make the DUP happy to share power by compromising enough to please them, or Stormont can't sit. That is what the GFA says.

    So what is the EU's proposal to make the DUP happy?
    Strange idea that the losers of an election should get their manifesto implemented.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,163
    MaxPB said:

    Employment numbers look solid, I also spy a 1.2% increase in real wages including bonuses, sucks for the public sector but it seems that the private sector wage growth is just about keeping up with inflation.

    I remember we used to get a regular series on state vs private sector employment which peaked under Labour at just under 25% and fell to ca. 17% under the the coalition and later Tory government. I wonder what that number is today, at 17% we get 5 private sector tax contributions for each public sector employee and at 25% it's just three (hence Labour running a huge deficit and Osborne bringing the budget almost into balance). It feels as though we've had a huge expansion of the state during COVID and now it's time to roll it all back, the 90k job cuts should be seen as just the start. All throughout the state sector unproductive people need to be moved on so they can find work in the private sector.

    A simple move would be to institute a 1 in 2 out rule across the whole public administration body, including the NHS and care services. I'd even suggest that to hire a new nurse or doctor the hospital should be obliged to move on two non-front line staff as part of the efficiency savings. It's an extremely blunt tool, yet within a couple of years the state will suddenly be cut down to size and we'll have brought the budget back into balance allowing us to actually pay for things like new infrastructure to replace the crumbling schools, roads and ancient railways.

    Are Bailey's fears about higher rates causing a recession overdone....? room for another hike surely...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 31,148
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    I despise feminism as much as the next red-blooded Briton, and think women should be barefoot, squealing and bent over the Aga, as we all do, however it is hard to argue that masculine politics is having a good run right now, as the macho idiot Putin sends his brutes into Ukraine

    Perhaps it is time for the women to run the show. At least for a while. Tho not Kamala Harris, please

    I'm not sure President Le Pen would have been a good thing.

    And the only good thing that can be said about GDR Merkel now is that Gazprom Zchroder was worse.
    Keir Starmer isn't very good but at least he's not Rebecca Long-Bailey.

    Some women can be good, some women not so much. No different to men really.
    It's not so much 'better' or 'worse' but if you have a burning desire for the world to be more peaceful you'll want to see more women in positions of power. And I'm happy to reverse this and say that anybody who doesn't want to see more women in positions of power does not - regardless of any protests to the contrary - have a burning desire for a more peaceful world. They might quite fancy peace on earth but there is no burning desire for such. It's not a priority for them. Other things are. Eg tax cuts or border control or the BBC licence fee.
    Golda Meir, Mrs. Gandhi, Mrs. Thatcher, Catherine the Great, Elizabeth I say "hello."

    I'd be very wary of the notion that more women in power means a more peaceful world.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,138
    edited May 17
    Applicant said:

    .

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On Brexit, a real cost to business is the fact that if you export from say France to Germany for a project (Or any two countries within the EU), the goods can no longer be zero rated across between the EU countries if you're an ex EU (As we are now) supplier.

    We're in the process of sorting this by obtaining Dutch VAT status for our companies - and potentially we'll have to grab other EU nation VAT status depending on stuff only tax specialists fully grasp. I do VAT returns, though intra-EU VAT is a bit of a dark art even for myself.

    The upshot is it will probably cost us between 2 and 10 grand a year to administer what was previously a simple intrastat declaration which took about an hour of my time every quarter. The alternative would be our business being completely unviable.

    A real cost of Brexit for British business, and not needed when general inflation on metals etc is through the roof.

    I believe businesses within Northern Ireland avoid this nonsense as they're part of the EU VAT orbit.

    Obviously noone cares about this, but it's a pain for British exporters where you're buying and selling within the EU.

    While my sympathies are with you, I believe Brexiteer Ministers would ask what efforts you have made to export to Ecuador, or similar.
    We export everywhere. It's a problem that doesn't actually spring up anywhere else - it's created entirely by the EU single market existing. If it didn't exist, there wouldn't be a problem because everything would just be 'rest of world'. However it does exist and as it does and as we're so near you're better off being in the system.
    Why?

    If you're perfectly fine handling the rest of the world, what's wrong with France and Germany being RoW too?

    Your logic is like saying since the USA exists that Canada should be a part of it. Just because a market exists does not mean you need to be a part of it.
    Well I agree that's how it should work, and how I thought it did but it doesn't !
    What you appear to be saying is that the single market isn't a single market - otherwise, once goods were in it they would be in it and there wouldn't be anything else to say.
    Widget A is exported from a Spanish supplier (A) to a Polish customer (B) by a German company (C) overseeing a project for Polish customer. All the VAT is zero as Germany, Spain, Poland are within the single market.

    Widget B is exported from a Spanish supplier to a Polish customer by a British VAT regged company (D) overseeing a project for Polish customer. Spanish supplier's invoices to British company should have VAT charged. British Company D needs to reclaim VAT directly with the Spanish tax authorities or reg for VAT within the EU.

    It's a single market if you're fully in it, otherwise it isn't.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,722
    edited May 17
    Stormont functioning or not isn't the issue.
    It's not functioned for long periods before. And will do again.
    The issue is an agreement negotiated, trumpeted, triumphalised and enacted by a government and Parties that now decide it was fatally flawed.
    It's their job to come up with a solution.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 31,148

    dixiedean said:

    MaxPB said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    The DUP aren't interested.
    Their only aim is to run the clock down to fresh elections.
    They've implied as much.
    Yet no one seems to have read between the lines.

    That is their prerogative. That is how power sharing in the Good Friday Agreement works.

    Either make the DUP happy to share power by compromising enough to please them, or Stormont can't sit. That is what the GFA says.

    So what is the EU's proposal to make the DUP happy?
    It isn't the EU's job to make the DUP happy.
    Just as it isn't ours to make the Flemish Independence lot happy.
    It's an internal issue of a sovereign nation.
    Or isn't it?
    Hmm, under the terms of the GFA there needs to be a solution all communities can live with so it is sort of their problem just as it would be our problem if SF were unhappy with anything that intended to create a land border.
    Yes but.
    SF are happy. The EU seem to be happy. NI business and the majority of the electorate do too.
    It isn't the job of the contented to find a solution to an agreement they like.
    It is if they want power sharing.

    If you're calling to abolish the Good Friday Agreement then I'd be curious why? But if you're not, then yes power sharing involves making all parties happy not just those who already are.
    Sure. You can't demand cross-community support when it suits you, and then majoritarianism when it suits you. it has to be one or the other. Sinn Fein stayed out of the Executive for three years because they weren't happy.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 3,839

    Selebian said:

    My inner statto wonders about the inference drawn here. Say candidates were selected at random (50% male, 50% female) then having six female by-election winners in a row is a ~1.5% chance. But in Copeland all serious candidates were female, so ~3% chance for all female winners over 5 remaining elections if there was no bias towards female winners (in the remaining elections, the frontrunners were one male one female). Looks potentially significant, but not super clearcut. Given most parties are a bit embarassed by a lack of female MPs (not the LDs, they're just embarassed by a lack of MPs in general) there could be an incentive to put women up, particularly for seats with a good chance. There's also the fact that some of the men were demonstrable idiots, at least in the campaigns (Goldsmith) or arguably a poor match for the constituency (Paul Williams).

    TLDR: I'm not yet convinced by this and I won't be betting on every woman contesting a by-election.

    Just over half of Labour MPs are female (104/202). Not too shabby. The equivalent number for the Tories is 87/365. Shabby. (2019 GE figures)
    I stand corrected! Labour also a bit embarassed by a lack of MPs, of course, though not nearly as much as the LDs.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,151

    Selebian said:

    My inner statto wonders about the inference drawn here. Say candidates were selected at random (50% male, 50% female) then having six female by-election winners in a row is a ~1.5% chance. But in Copeland all serious candidates were female, so ~3% chance for all female winners over 5 remaining elections if there was no bias towards female winners (in the remaining elections, the frontrunners were one male one female). Looks potentially significant, but not super clearcut. Given most parties are a bit embarassed by a lack of female MPs (not the LDs, they're just embarassed by a lack of MPs in general) there could be an incentive to put women up, particularly for seats with a good chance. There's also the fact that some of the men were demonstrable idiots, at least in the campaigns (Goldsmith) or arguably a poor match for the constituency (Paul Williams).

    TLDR: I'm not yet convinced by this and I won't be betting on every woman contesting a by-election.

    Just over half of Labour MPs are female (104/202). Not too shabby. The equivalent number for the Tories is 87/365. Shabby. (2019 GE figures)
    Assisted by the probable loss of at least 50 seats, I do expect that ratio to improve significantly.

  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 9,068
    MaxPB said:

    Employment numbers look solid, I also spy a 1.2% increase in real wages including bonuses, sucks for the public sector but it seems that the private sector wage growth is just about keeping up with inflation.

    I remember we used to get a regular series on state vs private sector employment which peaked under Labour at just under 25% and fell to ca. 17% under the the coalition and later Tory government. I wonder what that number is today, at 17% we get 5 private sector tax contributions for each public sector employee and at 25% it's just three (hence Labour running a huge deficit and Osborne bringing the budget almost into balance). It feels as though we've had a huge expansion of the state during COVID and now it's time to roll it all back, the 90k job cuts should be seen as just the start. All throughout the state sector unproductive people need to be moved on so they can find work in the private sector.

    A simple move would be to institute a 1 in 2 out rule across the whole public administration body, including the NHS and care services. I'd even suggest that to hire a new nurse or doctor the hospital should be obliged to move on two non-front line staff as part of the efficiency savings. It's an extremely blunt tool, yet within a couple of years the state will suddenly be cut down to size and we'll have brought the budget back into balance allowing us to actually pay for things like new infrastructure to replace the crumbling schools, roads and ancient railways.

    Pay growth is only keeping up with inflation because the utilities price cap has delayed the CPI increase to April. The consensus forecast for April CPI inflation tomorrow is 9.1% from 7.0% in March. Plus since pay is being boosted by bonuses not baseline pay, if these bonuses aren't maintained next year workers may see incomes eroded further in the future.
    With your proposals of further cuts to the public sector I can only assume you haven't actually used any public services recently, and so are unaware of how a decade of cuts has already degraded provision almost beyond recognition.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,170
    edited May 17

    dixiedean said:

    The DUP aren't interested.
    Their only aim is to run the clock down to fresh elections.
    They've implied as much.
    Yet no one seems to have read between the lines.

    That is their prerogative. That is how power sharing in the Good Friday Agreement works.

    Either make the DUP happy to share power by compromising enough to please them, or Stormont can't sit. That is what the GFA says.

    So what is the EU's proposal to make the DUP happy?
    Strange idea that the losers of an election should get their manifesto implemented.
    Well that's the GFA agreement for you.

    It was decided that all sides of the community had to be happy in order to share power rather than slaughter each other...
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 6,373

    dixiedean said:

    The DUP aren't interested.
    Their only aim is to run the clock down to fresh elections.
    They've implied as much.
    Yet no one seems to have read between the lines.

    That is their prerogative. That is how power sharing in the Good Friday Agreement works.

    Either make the DUP happy to share power by compromising enough to please them, or Stormont can't sit. That is what the GFA says.

    So what is the EU's proposal to make the DUP happy?
    Strange idea that the losers of an election should get their manifesto implemented.
    Only strange if you think PR systems should operate on the basis of FPTP taken to extremes.

    The GFA is based on power sharing and a PR based electoral system that forces coalitions, it is not winner takes all FPTP majoritarianism.

    The DUP won the race to be the first party for the unionist community, therefore they won the right to have their manifesto implemented. If you want that to be different, advocate for electoral reform to First Past the Post and the abolition of the Good Friday Agreement.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,722

    MaxPB said:

    Employment numbers look solid, I also spy a 1.2% increase in real wages including bonuses, sucks for the public sector but it seems that the private sector wage growth is just about keeping up with inflation.

    I remember we used to get a regular series on state vs private sector employment which peaked under Labour at just under 25% and fell to ca. 17% under the the coalition and later Tory government. I wonder what that number is today, at 17% we get 5 private sector tax contributions for each public sector employee and at 25% it's just three (hence Labour running a huge deficit and Osborne bringing the budget almost into balance). It feels as though we've had a huge expansion of the state during COVID and now it's time to roll it all back, the 90k job cuts should be seen as just the start. All throughout the state sector unproductive people need to be moved on so they can find work in the private sector.

    A simple move would be to institute a 1 in 2 out rule across the whole public administration body, including the NHS and care services. I'd even suggest that to hire a new nurse or doctor the hospital should be obliged to move on two non-front line staff as part of the efficiency savings. It's an extremely blunt tool, yet within a couple of years the state will suddenly be cut down to size and we'll have brought the budget back into balance allowing us to actually pay for things like new infrastructure to replace the crumbling schools, roads and ancient railways.

    Pay growth is only keeping up with inflation because the utilities price cap has delayed the CPI increase to April. The consensus forecast for April CPI inflation tomorrow is 9.1% from 7.0% in March. Plus since pay is being boosted by bonuses not baseline pay, if these bonuses aren't maintained next year workers may see incomes eroded further in the future.
    With your proposals of further cuts to the public sector I can only assume you haven't actually used any public services recently, and so are unaware of how a decade of cuts has already degraded provision almost beyond recognition.
    Not to mention that the vast majority don't receive any bonuses whatsoever.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 9,596
    The Festival of Brexit is still on!

    https://www.theweek.co.uk/brexit/952349/festival-of-brexit-unboxed

    I just hope I can get a seat in the Metamucil Pavillion for the screening of the 'lost' episodes of Lewis.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 6,373
    dixiedean said:

    Stormont functioning or not isn't the issue.
    It's not functioned for long periods before. And will do again.
    The issue is an agreement negotiated, trumpeted, triumphalised and enacted by a government and Parties that now decide it was fatally flawed.
    It's their job to come up with a solution.

    The agreement comes with pre-agreed Safeguarding clauses in case the agreement was flawed.

    So its the government's job to implement the Safeguarding clause and then renegotiations can begin.
  • AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 30
    (After a long gap, a pedant writes....) I think you will find that the Lib Dems have selected a candidate in Somerton & Frome, not Tiverton & Honiton. Despite the ampersand, they are in fact different places.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,620
    Brexit is Done...

    Liz Truss to announce plan to blow up Brexit deal TODAY amid price rise fears https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/18593275/liz-truss-plan-blow-up-brexit-deal-today/
This discussion has been closed.