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If punters are right CON set to lose both upcoming by-elections – politicalbetting.com

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  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,894

    How do these long snookers finals actually work mentally. First to 18 or first to 7 and already 4 nil up?

    The former world champion pundits discuss this a fair deal.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    Oryx has just reached 600 tanks destroyed.

    60 BTG's worth.

    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

    Ukraine have captured 50% more tanks than they have lost - 222 versus 147.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies

    Westminster Voting Intention (1 May):

    Labour 41% (-1)
    Conservative 33% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 3% (-1)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 24 Apr

    Keir Starmer (35%, down 5%) leads Boris Johnson (33%, up 1%) by a narrow 2% in terms of who Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.

    Quite a fall for Starmer. Have the Daily Mail actually scored a hit?
    He was interviewed on beergate (currygate) today and stonewalled every question and did look quite flustered
    Labour are doing a really poor job making this non story go away. The moment they were caught lying about Rayner gave it legs, then there was the hapless MP for Durhams drunken rant at a local Tory MP, now this. It’s inept.
    He was asked if the reports of curry being delivered and 30 people were in attendence and he failed to answer

    It has also come to light that when he said his hotel did not serve food that was not the case

    He seems to be getting asked daily at his media questions about it and he needs to respond to the questions and not look evasive
    The whole story is completely ridiculous but my goodness he is getting flustered. His complaints about mudslinging seem incredibly hollow from someone who has been delivering mud by the JCB load for months.

    I am beginning to suspect that the rough and tumble of a GE campaign may not be SKS's natural mileau. He seems much happier when he has plenty of time and the moral high ground. He's really not a natural court lawyer at all.
    If that is true, and not just wishful thinking on your part, it gives hope to those of us that would like to see the back of The Clown, but don't particularly want to see a huge Labour majority after the next GE. I think it might just be wishful thinking though. The Tories (or CINO as I prefer to call them) are going to get stuffed.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,627
    ydoethur said:

    How do these long snookers finals actually work mentally. First to 18 or first to 7 and already 4 nil up?

    First to 18.
    You can watch all 13 hours and 21 minutes of Dennis Taylor versus Steve Davis on YouTube.

    https://youtu.be/-Wn58hDQ2-Y
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,034
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies

    Westminster Voting Intention (1 May):

    Labour 41% (-1)
    Conservative 33% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 3% (-1)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 24 Apr

    Keir Starmer (35%, down 5%) leads Boris Johnson (33%, up 1%) by a narrow 2% in terms of who Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.

    Quite a fall for Starmer. Have the Daily Mail actually scored a hit?
    He was interviewed on beergate (currygate) today and stonewalled every question and did look quite flustered
    Labour are doing a really poor job making this non story go away. The moment they were caught lying about Rayner gave it legs, then there was the hapless MP for Durhams drunken rant at a local Tory MP, now this. It’s inept.
    He was asked if the reports of curry being delivered and 30 people were in attendence and he failed to answer

    It has also come to light that when he said his hotel did not serve food that was not the case

    He seems to be getting asked daily at his media questions about it and he needs to respond to the questions and not look evasive
    Can you remember what not only you but the local hotel was doing 2 years ago? And at what times of day, remember? Breakfast, yes, but did they do dinner?

    It'd be positively suspicious if he could remember!

    If so why did they put out the story the hotel did not do evening food
    Time of day, time to go back and get changed? Residents only, when there were others in the group?

    You'll be asking next how many spokes there were in the steering wheel of the tractor Mr Tiverton and Honiton was admiring.
    Then be upfront and answer the questions - being evasive just continues story
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310

    Where is the balance of power in Tory by-election selection? Labour HQ influences the short-list heavily, but final selection is up to the CLP, who tend to be unpredictable. Can Tory HQ decree "It shall be Frost" or do local members have the final say?

    Back in my day as a member of the local executive committee it was very much a local decision. That has probably changed in the current incarnation of the party.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662
    IshmaelZ said:

    “President Zelensky is a very bad character who is working with globalists against the interests of his own people.” - Candace Owens

    “Zelensky is a globalist puppet for Soros and the Clintons.” - Wendy Rogers

    Hmmmm. Are you thinking what I'm thinking?

    You are Michael Howard and I claim my 2005 election slogan poster!
    Howard is Jewish...
    IshmaelZ said:

    “President Zelensky is a very bad character who is working with globalists against the interests of his own people.” - Candace Owens

    “Zelensky is a globalist puppet for Soros and the Clintons.” - Wendy Rogers

    Hmmmm. Are you thinking what I'm thinking?

    You are Michael Howard and I claim my 2005 election slogan poster!
    Howard is Jewish...
    Precisely but Lab 2005 depicted him as a pig and as Fagin just to remind folk in their New Labour actual Anti Semitic way
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,817

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies

    Westminster Voting Intention (1 May):

    Labour 41% (-1)
    Conservative 33% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 3% (-1)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 24 Apr

    Keir Starmer (35%, down 5%) leads Boris Johnson (33%, up 1%) by a narrow 2% in terms of who Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.

    Quite a fall for Starmer. Have the Daily Mail actually scored a hit?
    He was interviewed on beergate (currygate) today and stonewalled every question and did look quite flustered
    Labour are doing a really poor job making this non story go away. The moment they were caught lying about Rayner gave it legs, then there was the hapless MP for Durhams drunken rant at a local Tory MP, now this. It’s inept.
    He was asked if the reports of curry being delivered and 30 people were in attendence and he failed to answer

    It has also come to light that when he said his hotel did not serve food that was not the case

    He seems to be getting asked daily at his media questions about it and he needs to respond to the questions and not look evasive
    The whole story is completely ridiculous but my goodness he is getting flustered. His complaints about mudslinging seem incredibly hollow from someone who has been delivering mud by the JCB load for months.

    I am beginning to suspect that the rough and tumble of a GE campaign may not be SKS's natural mileau. He seems much happier when he has plenty of time and the moral high ground. He's really not a natural court lawyer at all.
    If that is true, and not just wishful thinking on your part, it gives hope to those of us that would like to see the back of The Clown, but don't particularly want to see a huge Labour majority after the next GE. I think it might just be wishful thinking though. The Tories (or CINO as I prefer to call them) are going to get stuffed.
    Oh quite probably. But Boris is a very good campaigner and uses humour very well. He has an eye for the absurdity of life. SKS is a steady hand, a massive improvement on Corbyn and someone who, Biden like, would be acceptable under the circumstances. But...
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    Where is the balance of power in Tory by-election selection? Labour HQ influences the short-list heavily, but final selection is up to the CLP, who tend to be unpredictable. Can Tory HQ decree "It shall be Frost" or do local members have the final say?

    I would be shocked if HQ said ''it shall be Frost''

    It would be far more likely they said ''it shall not be Frost''

    Frost would be a big potential rival for Johnson and a rallying figure for the bluer MPs in the party.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Just been told that I missed Randy Newman at the NOLA jazz fest yesterday and now I want to open my wrists

    Truly tragic.

    And here is his performance!

    Randy Newman - Louisiana 1927 - New Orleans Jazz & Heritage Festival 5/1/22
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sW3tY1l9Ol8
    You’re not helping

    Leon said:

    Just been told that I missed Randy Newman at the NOLA jazz fest yesterday and now I want to open my wrists

    If I ever win the lottery, or make obscene amounts of money by other means (which I am working on), I'll pay for him to come and play a private gig. Just for us.

    One of the greats I have contrived to miss too....
    Short People is one of my favourite songs EVER

    I want to cry. I must solace myself with a half dozen on the half shell
    One of my all-time favorites also.

    But ranking above that classic, is the first Randy Newman song, at least that I recall - "Big River" - not about the Mighty Mississip but instead the (then) Filthy Cuyahoga.

    However, "Louisiana 1927) - which IS about the Father of Waters - is RN's best. Always brings tears to my eyes.

    And hard to imagine a Louisianan - native, adopted, exiled - who isn't emotionally moved when they hear it. Has everything you could ask for in a quintessentially Louisiana song, except perhaps a free bowl of gumbo.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    ydoethur said:

    How do these long snookers finals actually work mentally. First to 18 or first to 7 and already 4 nil up?

    First to 18.
    You can watch all 13 hours and 21 minutes of Dennis Taylor versus Steve Davis on YouTube.

    https://youtu.be/-Wn58hDQ2-Y
    Rather like with Ian Botham at Headingly, Taylor says he’s met many times more people who have said they were in the Crucible that night, than the capacity of the theatre.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Leon, hang out at the right hangouts, and you just might rub elbows with Randy Newman in next day or so.

    Just sayin'
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon, hang out at the right hangouts, and you just might rub elbows with Randy Newman in next day or so.

    Just sayin'

    I’ve decided to move on. It’s too painful

    I am choosing an oyster bar. Maybe Felix
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386
    Cyclefree said:

    Anyway, given my limited interest in whether Starmer once had a beer, I have largely ignored politics for the last few days and instead concentrated on serious gardening.

    Namely -

    - The creation of 2 new beds, one in the front and one in the back garden.
    - Plus the improvement of a third, which is a mixture of a herb and flower bed.
    - Removing all the rubble, stones, old plastic sacks & other rubbish the builders kindly left in the garden. (Why builders think a planting bed is the same as a skip who can say.)
    - 9 x 70 litres of top soil, compost and soil conditioner lifted and spread over the beds.
    - Circa 80 plants planted & watered & God knows how many weeds cleared.

    Hard physical work is very satisfying! If tiring.

    So I treated myself to afternoon tea - as you can see here.


    Very nice. Have been doing some weeding of my own but it's a bit difficult to fit gardening around everything else. Aiming to plant a new rose border by the sunroom with roses that have a strong scent, but haven't got round to that yet.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,241
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    FPT for @Heathener re why we don't discuss faraway non-European conflicts. Well, the answer is we do.

    Here is a thread header I wrote on what China is doing to the Uighurs - from December 2019 - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/12/09/lets-talk-about-islamophobia/.

    And another one in July 2020 - https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/07/23/laundering-reputations-china-and-its-uighurs/#vanilla-comments.

    And this from November 2017 which mentions the Rohingya in the final paragraph - https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/11/28/symbols-for-our-time/.

    All of the conflicts you have mentioned have been discussed both above and below the line.

    We could do with more discussion of Yemen though. Particularly since that is a proxy proxy war. The US stooges Saudi are backing one side, and Russia's stooges Iran are backing the other, and the Yemenis are caught in the middle in a war every bit as brutal as that in Ukraine.
    Sunni and Shia have been fighting each other for more than a millenium. If it wasn’t Yemen, they’d be fighting somewhere else.
    Is that really true? Certainly for the last 40 years, but before that?
    It’s been going on since the Phophet died, but it’s definitely escalated since the Iranian revolution of 1979.
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    FPT for @Heathener re why we don't discuss faraway non-European conflicts. Well, the answer is we do.

    Here is a thread header I wrote on what China is doing to the Uighurs - from December 2019 - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/12/09/lets-talk-about-islamophobia/.

    And another one in July 2020 - https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/07/23/laundering-reputations-china-and-its-uighurs/#vanilla-comments.

    And this from November 2017 which mentions the Rohingya in the final paragraph - https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/11/28/symbols-for-our-time/.

    All of the conflicts you have mentioned have been discussed both above and below the line.

    We could do with more discussion of Yemen though. Particularly since that is a proxy proxy war. The US stooges Saudi are backing one side, and Russia's stooges Iran are backing the other, and the Yemenis are caught in the middle in a war every bit as brutal as that in Ukraine.
    Sunni and Shia have been fighting each other for more than a millenium. If it wasn’t Yemen, they’d be fighting somewhere else.
    Is that really true? Certainly for the last 40 years, but before that?
    It’s been going on since the Phophet died, but it’s definitely escalated since the Iranian revolution of 1979.
    Surely it has only been going on since the death (or "occultation") of the Caliph Ali?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    How do these long snookers finals actually work mentally. First to 18 or first to 7 and already 4 nil up?

    First to 18.
    You can watch all 13 hours and 21 minutes of Dennis Taylor versus Steve Davis on YouTube.

    https://youtu.be/-Wn58hDQ2-Y
    Rather like with Ian Botham at Headingly, Taylor says he’s met many times more people who have said they were in the Crucible that night, than the capacity of the theatre.
    I watched it all live on telly; a lesser boast, but I almost always miss these things in real time even on TV, cos I just don't put the hours in. Only other one, I watched Andy Murray beat Andy Roddick IRT at Wimbledon 2006
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,241

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    FPT for @Heathener re why we don't discuss faraway non-European conflicts. Well, the answer is we do.

    Here is a thread header I wrote on what China is doing to the Uighurs - from December 2019 - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/12/09/lets-talk-about-islamophobia/.

    And another one in July 2020 - https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/07/23/laundering-reputations-china-and-its-uighurs/#vanilla-comments.

    And this from November 2017 which mentions the Rohingya in the final paragraph - https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/11/28/symbols-for-our-time/.

    All of the conflicts you have mentioned have been discussed both above and below the line.

    We could do with more discussion of Yemen though. Particularly since that is a proxy proxy war. The US stooges Saudi are backing one side, and Russia's stooges Iran are backing the other, and the Yemenis are caught in the middle in a war every bit as brutal as that in Ukraine.
    Sunni and Shia have been fighting each other for more than a millenium. If it wasn’t Yemen, they’d be fighting somewhere else.
    Is that really true? Certainly for the last 40 years, but before that?
    It’s been going on since the Phophet died, but it’s definitely escalated since the Iranian revolution of 1979.
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    FPT for @Heathener re why we don't discuss faraway non-European conflicts. Well, the answer is we do.

    Here is a thread header I wrote on what China is doing to the Uighurs - from December 2019 - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/12/09/lets-talk-about-islamophobia/.

    And another one in July 2020 - https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/07/23/laundering-reputations-china-and-its-uighurs/#vanilla-comments.

    And this from November 2017 which mentions the Rohingya in the final paragraph - https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/11/28/symbols-for-our-time/.

    All of the conflicts you have mentioned have been discussed both above and below the line.

    We could do with more discussion of Yemen though. Particularly since that is a proxy proxy war. The US stooges Saudi are backing one side, and Russia's stooges Iran are backing the other, and the Yemenis are caught in the middle in a war every bit as brutal as that in Ukraine.
    Sunni and Shia have been fighting each other for more than a millenium. If it wasn’t Yemen, they’d be fighting somewhere else.
    Is that really true? Certainly for the last 40 years, but before that?
    It’s been going on since the Phophet died, but it’s definitely escalated since the Iranian revolution of 1979.
    Surely it has only been going on since the death (or "occultation") of the Caliph Ali?
    Sorry, I was misremembering, it was the twelfth Imam that was occulted, not the first
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    ydoethur said:

    How do these long snookers finals actually work mentally. First to 18 or first to 7 and already 4 nil up?

    First to 18.
    Technically best of 35 frames though once someone gets to 18 it's obviously impossible for the other player to win. Going back a bit it was more like best of 73 or 79. I wonder if they'll ever go back to a longer final - 3 days?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,432

    On topic Wakefield should be a comfortable gain but Tiverton and Honiton should be a hold if the conservatives pick a local, probably female, candidate but not so if Frost is parachuted in

    Why on earth do they want Frost to be parachuted in?

    He's already a Lord isn't he? He can be a minister and help guide the government on Brexit if that is what Johnson wants. I have no idea why Johnson would want that as Frost seems to have been promoted about six levels above his abilities judging by the brexit negotiations but thats up to Johnson.

    It only makes sense if Frost is so deluded he thinks one of the big offices of state could be his.
    He has support amongst members and some who think he would be the perfect candidate to succeed Boris

    I believe they are utterly misguided and it would be the wrong thing to do
    Are these people literally stark staring raving mad? Frostie as Johnson's replacement?

    I'll retire to Bedlam.
    I think it's a bit of a shout actually.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    New Orleans factoid - Two weeks ago, NO city council formally renamed "Lee Circle" to "Harmony Circle".

    The prominent traffic circle, at eastern end of St Charles Ave (catch street car to Audubon Park here) features tall pillar (think Trafalgar Sq) upon which used to stand a statue of Gen. Robert E Lee (USA > CSA) gazing in general direction of Richmond.

    Statue was removed in 2017.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,432

    On topic Wakefield should be a comfortable gain but Tiverton and Honiton should be a hold if the conservatives pick a local, probably female, candidate but not so if Frost is parachuted in

    Why on earth do they want Frost to be parachuted in?

    He's already a Lord isn't he? He can be a minister and help guide the government on Brexit if that is what Johnson wants. I have no idea why Johnson would want that as Frost seems to have been promoted about six levels above his abilities judging by the brexit negotiations but thats up to Johnson.

    It only makes sense if Frost is so deluded he thinks one of the big offices of state could be his.
    He has support amongst members and some who think he would be the perfect candidate to succeed Boris

    I believe they are utterly misguided and it would be the wrong thing to do
    Are these people literally stark staring raving mad? Frostie as Johnson's replacement?

    I'll retire to Bedlam.
    I think it's a bit of a shout actually.
    I have put £2 on it. Consider it a charitable donation to Betfair.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Anyway, given my limited interest in whether Starmer once had a beer, I have largely ignored politics for the last few days and instead concentrated on serious gardening.

    Namely -

    - The creation of 2 new beds, one in the front and one in the back garden.
    - Plus the improvement of a third, which is a mixture of a herb and flower bed.
    - Removing all the rubble, stones, old plastic sacks & other rubbish the builders kindly left in the garden. (Why builders think a planting bed is the same as a skip who can say.)
    - 9 x 70 litres of top soil, compost and soil conditioner lifted and spread over the beds.
    - Circa 80 plants planted & watered & God knows how many weeds cleared.

    Hard physical work is very satisfying! If tiring.

    So I treated myself to afternoon tea - as you can see here.


    Very nice. Have been doing some weeding of my own but it's a bit difficult to fit gardening around everything else. Aiming to plant a new rose border by the sunroom with roses that have a strong scent, but haven't got round to that yet.
    You are only a short step away from David Austin Roses (not far from RAF Cosford) Weston something or other, between Wolverhampton and Shifnal. Best roses we have ever had. Great selection for bloom and scent.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386
    edited May 2022

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Anyway, given my limited interest in whether Starmer once had a beer, I have largely ignored politics for the last few days and instead concentrated on serious gardening.

    Namely -

    - The creation of 2 new beds, one in the front and one in the back garden.
    - Plus the improvement of a third, which is a mixture of a herb and flower bed.
    - Removing all the rubble, stones, old plastic sacks & other rubbish the builders kindly left in the garden. (Why builders think a planting bed is the same as a skip who can say.)
    - 9 x 70 litres of top soil, compost and soil conditioner lifted and spread over the beds.
    - Circa 80 plants planted & watered & God knows how many weeds cleared.

    Hard physical work is very satisfying! If tiring.

    So I treated myself to afternoon tea - as you can see here.


    Very nice. Have been doing some weeding of my own but it's a bit difficult to fit gardening around everything else. Aiming to plant a new rose border by the sunroom with roses that have a strong scent, but haven't got round to that yet.
    You are only a short step away from David Austin Roses (not far from RAF Cosford) Weston something or other, between Wolverhampton and Shifnal. Best roses we have ever had. Great selection for bloom and scent.
    Weston under Lizard, I would have thought.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weston-under-Lizard

    They sell David Austin Roses at Dobbie's in Penkridge.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    edited May 2022
    The Tories may not lose both, but it is perhaps notable that people are now expecting them to lose by-elections again as a matter of course, even ones with massive majorities.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Taz said:

    On topic Wakefield should be a comfortable gain but Tiverton and Honiton should be a hold if the conservatives pick a local, probably female, candidate but not so if Frost is parachuted in

    Why on earth do they want Frost to be parachuted in?

    He's already a Lord isn't he? He can be a minister and help guide the government on Brexit if that is what Johnson wants. I have no idea why Johnson would want that as Frost seems to have been promoted about six levels above his abilities judging by the brexit negotiations but thats up to Johnson.

    It only makes sense if Frost is so deluded he thinks one of the big offices of state could be his.
    He has support amongst members and some who think he would be the perfect candidate to succeed Boris

    I believe they are utterly misguided and it would be the wrong thing to do
    The Tories, surely, will pick a good local female candidate rather than parachute in Frost.

    Surely even they realise that they need a good candidate here.
    I think that parties know they need good candidates, but I don't see much evidence they are capable of recognising what makes a good candidate and then selecting that person.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Anyway, given my limited interest in whether Starmer once had a beer, I have largely ignored politics for the last few days and instead concentrated on serious gardening.

    Namely -

    - The creation of 2 new beds, one in the front and one in the back garden.
    - Plus the improvement of a third, which is a mixture of a herb and flower bed.
    - Removing all the rubble, stones, old plastic sacks & other rubbish the builders kindly left in the garden. (Why builders think a planting bed is the same as a skip who can say.)
    - 9 x 70 litres of top soil, compost and soil conditioner lifted and spread over the beds.
    - Circa 80 plants planted & watered & God knows how many weeds cleared.

    Hard physical work is very satisfying! If tiring.

    So I treated myself to afternoon tea - as you can see here.


    Very nice. Have been doing some weeding of my own but it's a bit difficult to fit gardening around everything else. Aiming to plant a new rose border by the sunroom with roses that have a strong scent, but haven't got round to that yet.
    You are only a short step away from David Austin Roses (not far from RAF Cosford) Weston something or other, between Wolverhampton and Shifnal. Best roses we have ever had. Great selection for bloom and scent.
    Weston under Lizard, I would have thought.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weston-under-Lizard

    They sell David Austin Roses at Dobbie's in Penkridge.
    I'd never have remembered that.

    Excellent selection as I recall. Back twenty/thirty years ago it was a pleasant day out and David Austin would mill around and chat to customers. He talked through my wife's every rose requirement (I just do the digging) Mind you the David Austin climber we have over the garden gate at Castell Mexicanpete has the biggest b****** thorns I've ever seen. I get torn to shreds pruning the b*****!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    kle4 said:

    Taz said:

    On topic Wakefield should be a comfortable gain but Tiverton and Honiton should be a hold if the conservatives pick a local, probably female, candidate but not so if Frost is parachuted in

    Why on earth do they want Frost to be parachuted in?

    He's already a Lord isn't he? He can be a minister and help guide the government on Brexit if that is what Johnson wants. I have no idea why Johnson would want that as Frost seems to have been promoted about six levels above his abilities judging by the brexit negotiations but thats up to Johnson.

    It only makes sense if Frost is so deluded he thinks one of the big offices of state could be his.
    He has support amongst members and some who think he would be the perfect candidate to succeed Boris

    I believe they are utterly misguided and it would be the wrong thing to do
    The Tories, surely, will pick a good local female candidate rather than parachute in Frost.

    Surely even they realise that they need a good candidate here.
    I think that parties know they need good candidates, but I don't see much evidence they are capable of recognising what makes a good candidate and then selecting that person.
    It requires a sufficient number of good candidates to put themselves forward in the first place.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Anyway, given my limited interest in whether Starmer once had a beer, I have largely ignored politics for the last few days and instead concentrated on serious gardening.

    Namely -

    - The creation of 2 new beds, one in the front and one in the back garden.
    - Plus the improvement of a third, which is a mixture of a herb and flower bed.
    - Removing all the rubble, stones, old plastic sacks & other rubbish the builders kindly left in the garden. (Why builders think a planting bed is the same as a skip who can say.)
    - 9 x 70 litres of top soil, compost and soil conditioner lifted and spread over the beds.
    - Circa 80 plants planted & watered & God knows how many weeds cleared.

    Hard physical work is very satisfying! If tiring.

    So I treated myself to afternoon tea - as you can see here.


    Very nice. Have been doing some weeding of my own but it's a bit difficult to fit gardening around everything else. Aiming to plant a new rose border by the sunroom with roses that have a strong scent, but haven't got round to that yet.
    You are only a short step away from David Austin Roses (not far from RAF Cosford) Weston something or other, between Wolverhampton and Shifnal. Best roses we have ever had. Great selection for bloom and scent.
    Weston under Lizard, I would have thought.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weston-under-Lizard

    They sell David Austin Roses at Dobbie's in Penkridge.
    I'd never have remembered that.

    Excellent selection as I recall. Back twenty/thirty years ago it was a pleasant day out and David Austin would mill around and chat to customers. He talked through my wife's every rose requirement (I just do the digging) Mind you the David Austin climber we have over the garden gate at Castell Mexicanpete has the biggest b****** thorns I've ever seen. I get torn to shreds pruning the b*****!
    Turns out they're at Albrighton, which is off the roundabout at Weston rather than in Weston itself.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Taz said:

    On topic Wakefield should be a comfortable gain but Tiverton and Honiton should be a hold if the conservatives pick a local, probably female, candidate but not so if Frost is parachuted in

    Why on earth do they want Frost to be parachuted in?

    He's already a Lord isn't he? He can be a minister and help guide the government on Brexit if that is what Johnson wants. I have no idea why Johnson would want that as Frost seems to have been promoted about six levels above his abilities judging by the brexit negotiations but thats up to Johnson.

    It only makes sense if Frost is so deluded he thinks one of the big offices of state could be his.
    He has support amongst members and some who think he would be the perfect candidate to succeed Boris

    I believe they are utterly misguided and it would be the wrong thing to do
    The Tories, surely, will pick a good local female candidate rather than parachute in Frost.

    Surely even they realise that they need a good candidate here.
    I think that parties know they need good candidates, but I don't see much evidence they are capable of recognising what makes a good candidate and then selecting that person.
    It requires a sufficient number of good candidates to put themselves forward in the first place.
    Granted, and it being an unappealing propsect has long been noted, but nevertheless the proportion of malacious duffers seems unreasonably high (even as the majority are well meaning folk). They could at least do well enough to end up with harmless oddballs.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    New Orleans factoid - Two weeks ago, NO city council formally renamed "Lee Circle" to "Harmony Circle".

    The prominent traffic circle, at eastern end of St Charles Ave (catch street car to Audubon Park here) features tall pillar (think Trafalgar Sq) upon which used to stand a statue of Gen. Robert E Lee (USA > CSA) gazing in general direction of Richmond.

    Statue was removed in 2017.

    I’ve nearly finished my (excellent) oysters at Luke. I have a spare afternoon in Nawlins. What can I do?

    I’ve done the obvious touristy things, from the French Quartet to Basin Street to the Garden District or the cemeteries

    Anything else? I fucked up my flight so I have an extra day
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Anyway, given my limited interest in whether Starmer once had a beer, I have largely ignored politics for the last few days and instead concentrated on serious gardening.

    Namely -

    - The creation of 2 new beds, one in the front and one in the back garden.
    - Plus the improvement of a third, which is a mixture of a herb and flower bed.
    - Removing all the rubble, stones, old plastic sacks & other rubbish the builders kindly left in the garden. (Why builders think a planting bed is the same as a skip who can say.)
    - 9 x 70 litres of top soil, compost and soil conditioner lifted and spread over the beds.
    - Circa 80 plants planted & watered & God knows how many weeds cleared.

    Hard physical work is very satisfying! If tiring.

    So I treated myself to afternoon tea - as you can see here.


    Very nice. Have been doing some weeding of my own but it's a bit difficult to fit gardening around everything else. Aiming to plant a new rose border by the sunroom with roses that have a strong scent, but haven't got round to that yet.
    You are only a short step away from David Austin Roses (not far from RAF Cosford) Weston something or other, between Wolverhampton and Shifnal. Best roses we have ever had. Great selection for bloom and scent.
    Weston under Lizard, I would have thought.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weston-under-Lizard

    They sell David Austin Roses at Dobbie's in Penkridge.
    I'd never have remembered that.

    Excellent selection as I recall. Back twenty/thirty years ago it was a pleasant day out and David Austin would mill around and chat to customers. He talked through my wife's every rose requirement (I just do the digging) Mind you the David Austin climber we have over the garden gate at Castell Mexicanpete has the biggest b****** thorns I've ever seen. I get torn to shreds pruning the b*****!
    Turns out they're at Albrighton, which is off the roundabout at Weston rather than in Weston itself.
    That's it! Albrighton.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    IshmaelZ said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    How do these long snookers finals actually work mentally. First to 18 or first to 7 and already 4 nil up?

    First to 18.
    You can watch all 13 hours and 21 minutes of Dennis Taylor versus Steve Davis on YouTube.

    https://youtu.be/-Wn58hDQ2-Y
    Rather like with Ian Botham at Headingly, Taylor says he’s met many times more people who have said they were in the Crucible that night, than the capacity of the theatre.
    I watched it all live on telly; a lesser boast, but I almost always miss these things in real time even on TV, cos I just don't put the hours in. Only other one, I watched Andy Murray beat Andy Roddick IRT at Wimbledon 2006
    I watched Murray win his Wimbledon title via an extremely dodgy internet connection in a remote hotel by Lake Molveno in the Dolomites. The sense that the livestream might drop any minute somehow added to the brilliant drama, and the connection held to the end (then failed)

    However I saw the end of the immortal 2005 Ashes in a Bangkok brothel - literally - which was arguably even better
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011
    Taz said:

    On topic Wakefield should be a comfortable gain but Tiverton and Honiton should be a hold if the conservatives pick a local, probably female, candidate but not so if Frost is parachuted in

    Why on earth do they want Frost to be parachuted in?

    He's already a Lord isn't he? He can be a minister and help guide the government on Brexit if that is what Johnson wants. I have no idea why Johnson would want that as Frost seems to have been promoted about six levels above his abilities judging by the brexit negotiations but thats up to Johnson.

    It only makes sense if Frost is so deluded he thinks one of the big offices of state could be his.
    He has support amongst members and some who think he would be the perfect candidate to succeed Boris

    I believe they are utterly misguided and it would be the wrong thing to do
    The Tories, surely, will pick a good local female candidate rather than parachute in Frost.

    Surely even they realise that they need a good candidate here.
    Just as long as she isn't a stepmom...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    "Comedian Eddie Izzard has been on the campaign trail in Sheffield for the party's South Yorkshire mayoral candidate Oliver Coppard.

    Izzard, who prefers to be identified as 'she' and 'her' these days, is desperate to become an MP.

    The Sheffield Central MP Paul Blomfield is standing down at the next election so his 27,000 majority will be a tempting proposition for Izzard."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-10773729/ANDREW-PIERCE-Tweet-trouble-brewing-calamity-Keir-Starmer.html

    ===

    Seems the call of Westminster still resonates despite most people thinking why on earth would a successful person want to become an MP?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,836

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies

    Westminster Voting Intention (1 May):

    Labour 41% (-1)
    Conservative 33% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 3% (-1)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 24 Apr

    Keir Starmer (35%, down 5%) leads Boris Johnson (33%, up 1%) by a narrow 2% in terms of who Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.

    Quite a fall for Starmer. Have the Daily Mail actually scored a hit?
    He was interviewed on beergate (currygate) today and stonewalled every question and did look quite flustered
    Labour are doing a really poor job making this non story go away. The moment they were caught lying about Rayner gave it legs, then there was the hapless MP for Durhams drunken rant at a local Tory MP, now this. It’s inept.
    He was asked if the reports of curry being delivered and 30 people were in attendence and he failed to answer

    It has also come to light that when he said his hotel did not serve food that was not the case

    He seems to be getting asked daily at his media questions about it and he needs to respond to the questions and not look evasive
    Can you remember what not only you but the local hotel was doing 2 years ago? And at what times of day, remember? Breakfast, yes, but did they do dinner?

    It'd be positively suspicious if he could remember!

    If so why did they put out the story the hotel did not do evening food
    Time of day, time to go back and get changed? Residents only, when there were others in the group?

    You'll be asking next how many spokes there were in the steering wheel of the tractor Mr Tiverton and Honiton was admiring.
    Then be upfront and answer the questions - being evasive just continues story
    You're missing the point. You couldn't remember, he couldn't remember, and he doesn't want to guess because they'll know, or just fib, that he was wrong.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited May 2022

    Andy_JS said:

    I think the Tories will lose both by-elections, but the local election results are far more important.

    I was talking to my daughter and son in law who live in Abergele and a huge row has broken out over a public footpath through Gwrych Castle ( I'm a Celebrity fame) as the owner closed it and the villagers are furious. As it so happens the owner is standing as a conservative councillor on thursday with 3 others and they are all predicted to lose because of this dispute

    Seemingly national politics are not relevant in this local
    In most places people will vote on national issues at the local elections. That's why the projected national vote usually matches up relatively well with the national opinion poll averages. There will be exceptions such as the areas you mention.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822

    "Comedian Eddie Izzard has been on the campaign trail in Sheffield for the party's South Yorkshire mayoral candidate Oliver Coppard.

    Izzard, who prefers to be identified as 'she' and 'her' these days, is desperate to become an MP.

    The Sheffield Central MP Paul Blomfield is standing down at the next election so his 27,000 majority will be a tempting proposition for Izzard."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-10773729/ANDREW-PIERCE-Tweet-trouble-brewing-calamity-Keir-Starmer.html

    ===

    Seems the call of Westminster still resonates despite most people thinking why on earth would a successful person want to become an MP?

    Knighthood, pension for life, perhaps a few bungs, in exchange for partying, re-arranging your duck pond and finding new ways to wangle your expenses?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,836
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I think the Tories will lose both by-elections, but the local election results are far more important.

    I was talking to my daughter and son in law who live in Abergele and a huge row has broken out over a public footpath through Gwrych Castle ( I'm a Celebrity fame) as the owner closed it and the villagers are furious. As it so happens the owner is standing as a conservative councillor on thursday with 3 others and they are all predicted to lose because of this dispute

    Seemingly national politics are not relevant in this local
    In most places people will vote on national issues at the local elections. That's why the projected national vote usually matches up relatively well with the national opinion poll averages. There will be exceptions such as the areas you mention.
    Did the candidate use public safety as an excuse? Given the amount of exotic and dangerous animals being imported for the filming. Not just kangaroos' naughty bits.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/im-a-celebrity-invasive-species-b1817984.html
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,583
    One for Leon and Ishmael:

    An interesting thread on why Russia's nukes *may* not be as much of a threat as people fear:
    https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1520180151992131584

    Basically: nukes cost a heck of a lot to keep in working order, as do delivery systems. And if the Russians are unsure whether their systems work, then they won't use them: as demonstrating they don't work - especially after their conventional military's failures - leaves them wide open to attack. They may think it is better to keep nukes as an unused threat, rather than a used failure.

    It's interesting, but not something I'd want testing...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,150
    edited May 2022

    Taz said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies

    Westminster Voting Intention (1 May):

    Labour 41% (-1)
    Conservative 33% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 3% (-1)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 24 Apr

    Keir Starmer (35%, down 5%) leads Boris Johnson (33%, up 1%) by a narrow 2% in terms of who Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.

    Quite a fall for Starmer. Have the Daily Mail actually scored a hit?
    He was interviewed on beergate (currygate) today and stonewalled every question and did look quite flustered
    Labour are doing a really poor job making this non story go away. The moment they were caught lying about Rayner gave it legs, then there was the hapless MP for Durhams drunken rant at a local Tory MP, now this. It’s inept.
    He was asked if the reports of curry being delivered and 30 people were in attendence and he failed to answer

    It has also come to light that when he said his hotel did not serve food that was not the case

    He seems to be getting asked daily at his media questions about it and he needs to respond to the questions and not look evasive
    Quite an inappropriate pun for this story ... legs.

    For shame.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited May 2022
    Leon said:

    New Orleans factoid - Two weeks ago, NO city council formally renamed "Lee Circle" to "Harmony Circle".

    The prominent traffic circle, at eastern end of St Charles Ave (catch street car to Audubon Park here) features tall pillar (think Trafalgar Sq) upon which used to stand a statue of Gen. Robert E Lee (USA > CSA) gazing in general direction of Richmond.

    Statue was removed in 2017.

    I’ve nearly finished my (excellent) oysters at Luke. I have a spare afternoon in Nawlins. What can I do?

    I’ve done the obvious touristy things, from the French Quartet to Basin Street to the Garden District or the cemeteries

    Anything else? I fucked up my flight so I have an extra day
    Lakefront? WW2 Museum? Little Saigon? Uber to Rocky & Carlos in Chalmette?

    Addendum - friends of mine in NO from Sea about year ago enjoyed catching tourist minibus up to Honey Island on Pearl River. Home of Honey Island Swamp Monster. And very near where the final scene in "Easy Rider" was filmed.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153

    One for Leon and Ishmael:

    An interesting thread on why Russia's nukes *may* not be as much of a threat as people fear:
    https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1520180151992131584

    Basically: nukes cost a heck of a lot to keep in working order, as do delivery systems. And if the Russians are unsure whether their systems work, then they won't use them: as demonstrating they don't work - especially after their conventional military's failures - leaves them wide open to attack. They may think it is better to keep nukes as an unused threat, rather than a used failure.

    It's interesting, but not something I'd want testing...

    Wuss
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386
    Leon said:

    However I saw the end of the immortal 2005 Ashes in a Bangkok brothel - literally - which was arguably even better

    Why would the Ashes get its end out in a Bangkok brothel?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,150

    Where is the balance of power in Tory by-election selection? Labour HQ influences the short-list heavily, but final selection is up to the CLP, who tend to be unpredictable. Can Tory HQ decree "It shall be Frost" or do local members have the final say?

    Will this be the quickest ever reverse-ferret on accepting a peerage?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,249
    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies

    Westminster Voting Intention (1 May):

    Labour 41% (-1)
    Conservative 33% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 3% (-1)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 24 Apr

    Keir Starmer (35%, down 5%) leads Boris Johnson (33%, up 1%) by a narrow 2% in terms of who Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.

    Quite a fall for Starmer. Have the Daily Mail actually scored a hit?
    He was interviewed on beergate (currygate) today and stonewalled every question and did look quite flustered
    Labour are doing a really poor job making this non story go away. The moment they were caught lying about Rayner gave it legs, then there was the hapless MP for Durhams drunken rant at a local Tory MP, now this. It’s inept.
    He was asked if the reports of curry being delivered and 30 people were in attendence and he failed to answer

    It has also come to light that when he said his hotel did not serve food that was not the case

    He seems to be getting asked daily at his media questions about it and he needs to respond to the questions and not look evasive
    Can you remember what not only you but the local hotel was doing 2 years ago? And at what times of day, remember? Breakfast, yes, but did they do dinner?

    It'd be positively suspicious if he could remember!

    If he couldn’t remember why make something up? Say I don’t know - let me check
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,218
    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Taz said:

    On topic Wakefield should be a comfortable gain but Tiverton and Honiton should be a hold if the conservatives pick a local, probably female, candidate but not so if Frost is parachuted in

    Why on earth do they want Frost to be parachuted in?

    He's already a Lord isn't he? He can be a minister and help guide the government on Brexit if that is what Johnson wants. I have no idea why Johnson would want that as Frost seems to have been promoted about six levels above his abilities judging by the brexit negotiations but thats up to Johnson.

    It only makes sense if Frost is so deluded he thinks one of the big offices of state could be his.
    He has support amongst members and some who think he would be the perfect candidate to succeed Boris

    I believe they are utterly misguided and it would be the wrong thing to do
    The Tories, surely, will pick a good local female candidate rather than parachute in Frost.

    Surely even they realise that they need a good candidate here.
    I think that parties know they need good candidates, but I don't see much evidence they are capable of recognising what makes a good candidate and then selecting that person.
    It requires a sufficient number of good candidates to put themselves forward in the first place.
    Difficulty is that the profile for the right candidate at a post-scandal by-election is very specific.

    1 Intensely local
    2 A cupboard that not only has no skeletons, but is visibly skeleton-free. In this case, ideally President of the local Mothers' Union.
    3 No controversial views on anything.

    It's pretty unlikely you will find such a person on the Candidates' List.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,249

    Taz said:

    On topic Wakefield should be a comfortable gain but Tiverton and Honiton should be a hold if the conservatives pick a local, probably female, candidate but not so if Frost is parachuted in

    Why on earth do they want Frost to be parachuted in?

    He's already a Lord isn't he? He can be a minister and help guide the government on Brexit if that is what Johnson wants. I have no idea why Johnson would want that as Frost seems to have been promoted about six levels above his abilities judging by the brexit negotiations but thats up to Johnson.

    It only makes sense if Frost is so deluded he thinks one of the big offices of state could be his.
    He has support amongst members and some who think he would be the perfect candidate to succeed Boris

    I believe they are utterly misguided and it would be the wrong thing to do
    The Tories, surely, will pick a good local female candidate rather than parachute in Frost.

    Surely even they realise that they need a good candidate here.
    Hopefully one who doesn't turn out to have a back story as a Dominator!

    The tractor vote will only take you so far in Devon.
    My wife called b****hit on the Tractor/Combine harvester excuse. She googled Dominator and got search results of videos of festivals, roller coasters, motorcycles and computer memory. No dodgy porn at all. She suggested that he is therefore likely to be a habitual porn watcher so that skewed his search results. Sounds fair to me.
    So why did she have to do it and not you?

    The nation demands to know!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386

    One for Leon and Ishmael:

    An interesting thread on why Russia's nukes *may* not be as much of a threat as people fear:
    https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1520180151992131584

    Basically: nukes cost a heck of a lot to keep in working order, as do delivery systems. And if the Russians are unsure whether their systems work, then they won't use them: as demonstrating they don't work - especially after their conventional military's failures - leaves them wide open to attack. They may think it is better to keep nukes as an unused threat, rather than a used failure.

    It's interesting, but not something I'd want testing...

    Isn't there are a car that's got such downforce you can drive it upside down, but nobody's willing to drive it on a tunnel roof to find out?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,653

    One for Leon and Ishmael:

    An interesting thread on why Russia's nukes *may* not be as much of a threat as people fear:
    https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1520180151992131584

    Basically: nukes cost a heck of a lot to keep in working order, as do delivery systems. And if the Russians are unsure whether their systems work, then they won't use them: as demonstrating they don't work - especially after their conventional military's failures - leaves them wide open to attack. They may think it is better to keep nukes as an unused threat, rather than a used failure.

    It's interesting, but not something I'd want testing...

    Do ours work?

    We only have four subs, military PBers describe them as constantly in for repairs.

    OTOH, someone in Greenock is almost certainly monitoring the ins-and-outs, so we'd know pretty quickly if we didn't have one at sea.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,836
    ydoethur said:

    One for Leon and Ishmael:

    An interesting thread on why Russia's nukes *may* not be as much of a threat as people fear:
    https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1520180151992131584

    Basically: nukes cost a heck of a lot to keep in working order, as do delivery systems. And if the Russians are unsure whether their systems work, then they won't use them: as demonstrating they don't work - especially after their conventional military's failures - leaves them wide open to attack. They may think it is better to keep nukes as an unused threat, rather than a used failure.

    It's interesting, but not something I'd want testing...

    Isn't there are a car that's got such downforce you can drive it upside down, but nobody's willing to drive it on a tunnel roof to find out?
    Be a good use for a self-driving mechanism, simply for the advertising film.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,583
    ydoethur said:

    One for Leon and Ishmael:

    An interesting thread on why Russia's nukes *may* not be as much of a threat as people fear:
    https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1520180151992131584

    Basically: nukes cost a heck of a lot to keep in working order, as do delivery systems. And if the Russians are unsure whether their systems work, then they won't use them: as demonstrating they don't work - especially after their conventional military's failures - leaves them wide open to attack. They may think it is better to keep nukes as an unused threat, rather than a used failure.

    It's interesting, but not something I'd want testing...

    Isn't there are a car that's got such downforce you can drive it upside down, but nobody's willing to drive it on a tunnel roof to find out?
    F1 cars (circa 1990-2000) were described as such. I've no idea if that's still true in this era.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Taz said:

    On topic Wakefield should be a comfortable gain but Tiverton and Honiton should be a hold if the conservatives pick a local, probably female, candidate but not so if Frost is parachuted in

    Why on earth do they want Frost to be parachuted in?

    He's already a Lord isn't he? He can be a minister and help guide the government on Brexit if that is what Johnson wants. I have no idea why Johnson would want that as Frost seems to have been promoted about six levels above his abilities judging by the brexit negotiations but thats up to Johnson.

    It only makes sense if Frost is so deluded he thinks one of the big offices of state could be his.
    He has support amongst members and some who think he would be the perfect candidate to succeed Boris

    I believe they are utterly misguided and it would be the wrong thing to do
    The Tories, surely, will pick a good local female candidate rather than parachute in Frost.

    Surely even they realise that they need a good candidate here.
    Just as long as she isn't a stepmom...
    So Carrie is out?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011

    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Taz said:

    On topic Wakefield should be a comfortable gain but Tiverton and Honiton should be a hold if the conservatives pick a local, probably female, candidate but not so if Frost is parachuted in

    Why on earth do they want Frost to be parachuted in?

    He's already a Lord isn't he? He can be a minister and help guide the government on Brexit if that is what Johnson wants. I have no idea why Johnson would want that as Frost seems to have been promoted about six levels above his abilities judging by the brexit negotiations but thats up to Johnson.

    It only makes sense if Frost is so deluded he thinks one of the big offices of state could be his.
    He has support amongst members and some who think he would be the perfect candidate to succeed Boris

    I believe they are utterly misguided and it would be the wrong thing to do
    The Tories, surely, will pick a good local female candidate rather than parachute in Frost.

    Surely even they realise that they need a good candidate here.
    I think that parties know they need good candidates, but I don't see much evidence they are capable of recognising what makes a good candidate and then selecting that person.
    It requires a sufficient number of good candidates to put themselves forward in the first place.
    Difficulty is that the profile for the right candidate at a post-scandal by-election is very specific.

    1 Intensely local
    2 A cupboard that not only has no skeletons, but is visibly skeleton-free. In this case, ideally President of the local Mothers' Union.
    3 No controversial views on anything.

    It's pretty unlikely you will find such a person on the Candidates' List.
    Or indeed in the Conservative Party.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561

    One for Leon and Ishmael:

    An interesting thread on why Russia's nukes *may* not be as much of a threat as people fear:
    https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1520180151992131584

    Basically: nukes cost a heck of a lot to keep in working order, as do delivery systems. And if the Russians are unsure whether their systems work, then they won't use them: as demonstrating they don't work - especially after their conventional military's failures - leaves them wide open to attack. They may think it is better to keep nukes as an unused threat, rather than a used failure.

    It's interesting, but not something I'd want testing...

    If China knew that Russia's nukes didn't work, I wonder how tempting all those natural resources east of the Urals would look.....
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011
    Eabhal said:

    One for Leon and Ishmael:

    An interesting thread on why Russia's nukes *may* not be as much of a threat as people fear:
    https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1520180151992131584

    Basically: nukes cost a heck of a lot to keep in working order, as do delivery systems. And if the Russians are unsure whether their systems work, then they won't use them: as demonstrating they don't work - especially after their conventional military's failures - leaves them wide open to attack. They may think it is better to keep nukes as an unused threat, rather than a used failure.

    It's interesting, but not something I'd want testing...

    Do ours work?

    We only have four subs, military PBers describe them as constantly in for repairs.

    OTOH, someone in Greenock is almost certainly monitoring the ins-and-outs, so we'd know pretty quickly if we didn't have one at sea.
    Schrodinger's deterrent.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    "Comedian Eddie Izzard has been on the campaign trail in Sheffield for the party's South Yorkshire mayoral candidate Oliver Coppard.

    Izzard, who prefers to be identified as 'she' and 'her' these days, is desperate to become an MP.

    The Sheffield Central MP Paul Blomfield is standing down at the next election so his 27,000 majority will be a tempting proposition for Izzard."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-10773729/ANDREW-PIERCE-Tweet-trouble-brewing-calamity-Keir-Starmer.html

    ===

    Seems the call of Westminster still resonates despite most people thinking why on earth would a successful person want to become an MP?

    If you've already acheived your goals in your professional life, sure, why not have a go.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited May 2022
    Leon, here's another restaurant tip for ya - Pascal's Manale (uptown sorta)
    https://pascalsmanale.com/

    Famed for their BBQ Shrip. BTW (and FYI) my own sainted mother made a version of this classic that was just as good or even better (certainly less expensive!) than PM.

    Edit - the secret is in the sauce.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716

    Taz said:

    On topic Wakefield should be a comfortable gain but Tiverton and Honiton should be a hold if the conservatives pick a local, probably female, candidate but not so if Frost is parachuted in

    Why on earth do they want Frost to be parachuted in?

    He's already a Lord isn't he? He can be a minister and help guide the government on Brexit if that is what Johnson wants. I have no idea why Johnson would want that as Frost seems to have been promoted about six levels above his abilities judging by the brexit negotiations but thats up to Johnson.

    It only makes sense if Frost is so deluded he thinks one of the big offices of state could be his.
    He has support amongst members and some who think he would be the perfect candidate to succeed Boris

    I believe they are utterly misguided and it would be the wrong thing to do
    The Tories, surely, will pick a good local female candidate rather than parachute in Frost.

    Surely even they realise that they need a good candidate here.
    Just as long as she isn't a stepmom...
    So Carrie is out?
    If I was running Screaming Lord Sutch's old Party I would stand an actual tractor in this by-election.

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    How do these long snookers finals actually work mentally. First to 18 or first to 7 and already 4 nil up?

    First to 18.
    You can watch all 13 hours and 21 minutes of Dennis Taylor versus Steve Davis on YouTube.

    https://youtu.be/-Wn58hDQ2-Y
    Rather like with Ian Botham at Headingly, Taylor says he’s met many times more people who have said they were in the Crucible that night, than the capacity of the theatre.
    I watched it all live on telly; a lesser boast, but I almost always miss these things in real time even on TV, cos I just don't put the hours in. Only other one, I watched Andy Murray beat Andy Roddick IRT at Wimbledon 2006
    I watched Murray win his Wimbledon title via an extremely dodgy internet connection in a remote hotel by Lake Molveno in the Dolomites. The sense that the livestream might drop any minute somehow added to the brilliant drama, and the connection held to the end (then failed)

    However I saw the end of the immortal 2005 Ashes in a Bangkok brothel - literally - which was arguably even better
    I cried at the end of ashes 2005 when kp acknowledged the victory

    Murray Vs roddick 2006 was an obscure match, but it was his breakthrough
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386

    ydoethur said:

    One for Leon and Ishmael:

    An interesting thread on why Russia's nukes *may* not be as much of a threat as people fear:
    https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1520180151992131584

    Basically: nukes cost a heck of a lot to keep in working order, as do delivery systems. And if the Russians are unsure whether their systems work, then they won't use them: as demonstrating they don't work - especially after their conventional military's failures - leaves them wide open to attack. They may think it is better to keep nukes as an unused threat, rather than a used failure.

    It's interesting, but not something I'd want testing...

    Isn't there are a car that's got such downforce you can drive it upside down, but nobody's willing to drive it on a tunnel roof to find out?
    F1 cars (circa 1990-2000) were described as such. I've no idea if that's still true in this era.
    Pretty sure it's not true for Mercedes. They've barely got downforce when they're the right way up!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon, here's another restaurant tip for ya - Pascal's Manale (uptown sorta)
    https://pascalsmanale.com/

    Famed for their BBQ Shrip. BTW (and FYI) my own sainted mother made a version of this classic that was just as good or even better (certainly less expensive!) than PM.

    Edit - the secret is in the sauce.

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    How do these long snookers finals actually work mentally. First to 18 or first to 7 and already 4 nil up?

    First to 18.
    You can watch all 13 hours and 21 minutes of Dennis Taylor versus Steve Davis on YouTube.

    https://youtu.be/-Wn58hDQ2-Y
    Rather like with Ian Botham at Headingly, Taylor says he’s met many times more people who have said they were in the Crucible that night, than the capacity of the theatre.
    I watched it all live on telly; a lesser boast, but I almost always miss these things in real time even on TV, cos I just don't put the hours in. Only other one, I watched Andy Murray beat Andy Roddick IRT at Wimbledon 2006
    I watched Murray win his Wimbledon title via an extremely dodgy internet connection in a remote hotel by Lake Molveno in the Dolomites. The sense that the livestream might drop any minute somehow added to the brilliant drama, and the connection held to the end (then failed)

    However I saw the end of the immortal 2005 Ashes in a Bangkok brothel - literally - which was arguably even better
    I cried at the end of ashes 2005 when kp acknowledged the victory

    Murray Vs roddick 2006 was an obscure match, but it was his breakthrough
    The 2005 Ashes was the greatest sporting event of my life and I doubt it will be bettered. It was like a mighty Russian novel turned into sport. A whole summer of insane drama

    The England rugby World Cup win - in the last minute of extra time - over Australia - in Australia - is a decent second.

    After that, hmm…. It gets more niche
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,583
    Eabhal said:

    One for Leon and Ishmael:

    An interesting thread on why Russia's nukes *may* not be as much of a threat as people fear:
    https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1520180151992131584

    Basically: nukes cost a heck of a lot to keep in working order, as do delivery systems. And if the Russians are unsure whether their systems work, then they won't use them: as demonstrating they don't work - especially after their conventional military's failures - leaves them wide open to attack. They may think it is better to keep nukes as an unused threat, rather than a used failure.

    It's interesting, but not something I'd want testing...

    Do ours work?

    We only have four subs, military PBers describe them as constantly in for repairs.

    OTOH, someone in Greenock is almost certainly monitoring the ins-and-outs, so we'd know pretty quickly if we didn't have one at sea.
    I'd think we stand a better chance than the Russians. AIUI we have one type of physics package, one type of platform, and one type of delivery system. The delivery system is shared with, and maintained by, the US. The physics package is similar to the US's (if you listen to some, it is very similar). The platform (Trident) is our own, but we can be fairly sure when these go to sea.

    We also spend an f'load of money on maintaining the system and perform tests of much of it - some of which do fail (in a way this is a good thing, as a failed test is a brilliant learning experience (tm)). ;)

    The Russians spend less on their military than we do, and have massively larger conventional forces to spend that money on. For nukes, they have a whole host of delivery systems, from submarines, air-launch (missiles and bombers) and silos. AIUI they also have several different warhead types in operation.

    This all makes maintaining Russia's systems a bit of a problem - and an expensive one if done properly.

    Nukes are crazy expensive. Their delivery systems are even more so - if you want them to be reliable.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Eabhal said:

    One for Leon and Ishmael:

    An interesting thread on why Russia's nukes *may* not be as much of a threat as people fear:
    https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1520180151992131584

    Basically: nukes cost a heck of a lot to keep in working order, as do delivery systems. And if the Russians are unsure whether their systems work, then they won't use them: as demonstrating they don't work - especially after their conventional military's failures - leaves them wide open to attack. They may think it is better to keep nukes as an unused threat, rather than a used failure.

    It's interesting, but not something I'd want testing...

    Do ours work?

    We only have four subs, military PBers describe them as constantly in for repairs.

    OTOH, someone in Greenock is almost certainly monitoring the ins-and-outs, so we'd know pretty quickly if we didn't have one at sea.
    I'd think we stand a better chance than the Russians. AIUI we have one type of physics package, one type of platform, and one type of delivery system. The delivery system is shared with, and maintained by, the US. The physics package is similar to the US's (if you listen to some, it is very similar). The platform (Trident) is our own, but we can be fairly sure when these go to sea.

    We also spend an f'load of money on maintaining the system and perform tests of much of it - some of which do fail (in a way this is a good thing, as a failed test is a brilliant learning experience (tm)). ;)

    The Russians spend less on their military than we do, and have massively larger conventional forces to spend that money on. For nukes, they have a whole host of delivery systems, from submarines, air-launch (missiles and bombers) and silos. AIUI they also have several different warhead types in operation.

    This all makes maintaining Russia's systems a bit of a problem - and an expensive one if done properly.

    Nukes are crazy expensive. Their delivery systems are even more so - if you want them to be reliable.
    Yes. They have 6000 of the things, and just one just accidentally blowing up on the launch pad in Kaliningrad is going to seriously spoil our day.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon, here's another restaurant tip for ya - Pascal's Manale (uptown sorta)
    https://pascalsmanale.com/

    Famed for their BBQ Shrip. BTW (and FYI) my own sainted mother made a version of this classic that was just as good or even better (certainly less expensive!) than PM.

    Edit - the secret is in the sauce.

    Thanks for the advice!

    I went to Luke in the end. Near Lafayette Sq. A NOLA resident friend recommended it

    Brilliant sweet little oysters. Lovely gumbo. Pricey but yum

    I am now in an exceptionally benign mood so I might drink some red wine, read about Lewis and Clark and have a siesta

    It seems the Nawlins thing to do



  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    Leon said:

    Leon, here's another restaurant tip for ya - Pascal's Manale (uptown sorta)
    https://pascalsmanale.com/

    Famed for their BBQ Shrip. BTW (and FYI) my own sainted mother made a version of this classic that was just as good or even better (certainly less expensive!) than PM.

    Edit - the secret is in the sauce.

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    How do these long snookers finals actually work mentally. First to 18 or first to 7 and already 4 nil up?

    First to 18.
    You can watch all 13 hours and 21 minutes of Dennis Taylor versus Steve Davis on YouTube.

    https://youtu.be/-Wn58hDQ2-Y
    Rather like with Ian Botham at Headingly, Taylor says he’s met many times more people who have said they were in the Crucible that night, than the capacity of the theatre.
    I watched it all live on telly; a lesser boast, but I almost always miss these things in real time even on TV, cos I just don't put the hours in. Only other one, I watched Andy Murray beat Andy Roddick IRT at Wimbledon 2006
    I watched Murray win his Wimbledon title via an extremely dodgy internet connection in a remote hotel by Lake Molveno in the Dolomites. The sense that the livestream might drop any minute somehow added to the brilliant drama, and the connection held to the end (then failed)

    However I saw the end of the immortal 2005 Ashes in a Bangkok brothel - literally - which was arguably even better
    I cried at the end of ashes 2005 when kp acknowledged the victory

    Murray Vs roddick 2006 was an obscure match, but it was his breakthrough
    The 2005 Ashes was the greatest sporting event of my life and I doubt it will be bettered. It was like a mighty Russian novel turned into sport. A whole summer of insane drama

    The England rugby World Cup win - in the last minute of extra time - over Australia - in Australia - is a decent second.

    After that, hmm…. It gets more niche
    1973 Barbarians Vs Kiwis
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Leon said:

    Leon, here's another restaurant tip for ya - Pascal's Manale (uptown sorta)
    https://pascalsmanale.com/

    Famed for their BBQ Shrip. BTW (and FYI) my own sainted mother made a version of this classic that was just as good or even better (certainly less expensive!) than PM.

    Edit - the secret is in the sauce.

    Thanks for the advice!

    I went to Luke in the end. Near Lafayette Sq. A NOLA resident friend recommended it

    Brilliant sweet little oysters. Lovely gumbo. Pricey but yum

    I am now in an exceptionally benign mood so I might drink some red wine, read about Lewis and Clark and have a siesta

    It seems the Nawlins thing to do



    Looks first rate. IMHO oyster shuckers deserve hazardous-duty pay.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,523
    A question for the combined genius of PB.

    What is the most number of Government seats lost in by-elections in a single Parliamentary term (by which I mean between two general elections in case my terminology is wrong)?

  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Why does New Orleans have such exceptionally ugly office blocks and skyscrapers?

    It is arguably America’s most beautiful city, yet miserably weighed down with these hideous THINGS

    America usually does skyscrapers well. They invented them. Yet the one place they fuck up is the one place which REALLY does not deserve it



  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    It’s like Swindon
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386

    A question for the combined genius of PB.

    What is the most number of Government seats lost in by-elections in a single Parliamentary term (by which I mean between two general elections in case my terminology is wrong)?

    There were 36 in the 1935-45 Parliament but that was of course rather exceptional.

    There were 20 in the 1924-29 Parliament. That must be up there.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,249
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    How do these long snookers finals actually work mentally. First to 18 or first to 7 and already 4 nil up?

    First to 18.
    You can watch all 13 hours and 21 minutes of Dennis Taylor versus Steve Davis on YouTube.

    https://youtu.be/-Wn58hDQ2-Y
    Rather like with Ian Botham at Headingly, Taylor says he’s met many times more people who have said they were in the Crucible that night, than the capacity of the theatre.
    I watched it all live on telly; a lesser boast, but I almost always miss these things in real time even on TV, cos I just don't put the hours in. Only other one, I watched Andy Murray beat Andy Roddick IRT at Wimbledon 2006
    I watched Murray win his Wimbledon title via an extremely dodgy internet connection in a remote hotel by Lake Molveno in the Dolomites. The sense that the livestream might drop any minute somehow added to the brilliant drama, and the connection held to the end (then failed)

    However I saw the end of the immortal 2005 Ashes in a Bangkok brothel - literally - which was arguably even better
    The sound of willow and leather as they stroked those balls to silly point?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153

    A question for the combined genius of PB.

    What is the most number of Government seats lost in by-elections in a single Parliamentary term (by which I mean between two general elections in case my terminology is wrong)?

    There were an astonishing 52 by-elections during the 1945 to 1950 Parliament... The majority of them were in Labour seats.

    And they lost...

    One.

    (Bonus point for guessing the constituency.)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,894
    OT snooker -- the final session has just resumed and Ronnie O'Sullivan is one frame away from his 8th world championship. PBers with an appreciation of sporting history might want to turn on their television or iplayer. And Trump is not completely without a chance.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Every single one of these buildings should be demolished this evening





    Btw @SeaShantyIrish2 i am not dissing your hometown. New Orleans is lovely and compelling, for all its flaws, from crime to hurricanes. Probably my favourite big city in all the Americas. More romantic than NYC, crazier even than La Paz, better food there is not in the New World

    That’s why the crap modern architecture is so annoying. Wouldn’t matter if it was Cleveland
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,779
    Leon said:

    Why does New Orleans have such exceptionally ugly office blocks and skyscrapers?

    It is arguably America’s most beautiful city, yet miserably weighed down with these hideous THINGS

    America usually does skyscrapers well. They invented them. Yet the one place they fuck up is the one place which REALLY does not deserve it



    Every American city is stuffed full of hideous buildings. New York has a few iconic skyscrapers but 90% of its real estate is ugly soulless office blocks. The French Quarter in New Orleans is quite charming, mostly because it doesn't look like an American city at all, but the rest of the city is just as ugly as most other US cities. Houston is the most hideous US city I've ever been to, the whole place felt like it was a Taco Bell car park.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011

    OT snooker -- the final session has just resumed and Ronnie O'Sullivan is one frame away from his 8th world championship. PBers with an appreciation of sporting history might want to turn on their television or iplayer. And Trump is not completely without a chance.

    Not a sport.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883
    rcs1000 said:

    A question for the combined genius of PB.

    What is the most number of Government seats lost in by-elections in a single Parliamentary term (by which I mean between two general elections in case my terminology is wrong)?

    There were an astonishing 52 by-elections during the 1945 to 1950 Parliament... The majority of them were in Labour seats.

    And they lost...

    One.

    (Bonus point for guessing the constituency.)
    hamilton?
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705

    ydoethur said:

    One for Leon and Ishmael:

    An interesting thread on why Russia's nukes *may* not be as much of a threat as people fear:
    https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1520180151992131584

    Basically: nukes cost a heck of a lot to keep in working order, as do delivery systems. And if the Russians are unsure whether their systems work, then they won't use them: as demonstrating they don't work - especially after their conventional military's failures - leaves them wide open to attack. They may think it is better to keep nukes as an unused threat, rather than a used failure.

    It's interesting, but not something I'd want testing...

    Isn't there are a car that's got such downforce you can drive it upside down, but nobody's willing to drive it on a tunnel roof to find out?
    F1 cars (circa 1990-2000) were described as such. I've no idea if that's still true in this era.
    I seem to remember that the resolution to the argument was that the physics made sense (at speed the cars produced more downforce than weight so would keep them up upside down) but the engineering didn't (the engines wouldn't work upside down, so they couldn't keep going fast enough to make the downforce work).

    But no data because Hermann Tilke isn't visionary enough to put moebius loops and upside-down sections in his new tracks.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    Leon said:

    New Orleans factoid - Two weeks ago, NO city council formally renamed "Lee Circle" to "Harmony Circle".

    The prominent traffic circle, at eastern end of St Charles Ave (catch street car to Audubon Park here) features tall pillar (think Trafalgar Sq) upon which used to stand a statue of Gen. Robert E Lee (USA > CSA) gazing in general direction of Richmond.

    Statue was removed in 2017.

    I’ve nearly finished my (excellent) oysters at Luke. I have a spare afternoon in Nawlins. What can I do?

    I’ve done the obvious touristy things, from the French Quartet to Basin Street to the Garden District or the cemeteries

    Anything else? I fucked up my flight so I have an extra day
    The Whitney Plantation sounds interesting:

    https://www.whitneyplantation.org/#:~:text=Whitney Plantation is the only,a southern Louisiana sugarcane plantation.

    It is unusual amongst Plantation tours in that it focusses on the slaves, rather than the owners, with the slaves glossed over. It gets very interesting reviews.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    edited May 2022

    OT snooker -- the final session has just resumed and Ronnie O'Sullivan is one frame away from his 8th world championship. PBers with an appreciation of sporting history might want to turn on their television or iplayer. And Trump is not completely without a chance.

    Not a sport.
    Neither is Cricket
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    edited May 2022

    A question for the combined genius of PB.

    What is the most number of Government seats lost in by-elections in a single Parliamentary term (by which I mean between two general elections in case my terminology is wrong)?

    The glory of wiki gives us this for recent history at least. But there used to be more by-elections in general, so I'd not be surprised if some earlier was worth.

    Looks like the Tories didn't win a by election from 1989 to 1997. 1992-97 is, unsurprisingly, pretty bad, losing all 8 government defences.

    2019-to date: 2 of 8
    2017-19: 1 of 5
    2015-17: 1 of 10
    2010-15: 3 of 21 (and 2 of those were incumbents winning under UKIP banner)
    2005-10: 4 of 14
    2001-05: 2 of 6
    1997-2001: 0 of 17
    1992-97: 8 of 18
    1987-92: 7 of 24
    1983-87: 4 of 31
    1979-83: 4 of 20

    As has been noted previously, there used to be a lot more deaths in office.

    The above is out of total number of by-elections. In terms of government defences, it is as follows for losses
    2019-to date: 2 of 4
    2017-19: 1 of 1
    2015-17: 1 of 3
    2010-15: 3 of 5 (and 2 of those were incumbents winning under UKIP banner), one was a LD defence
    2005-10: 4 of 8 (not including one following Speaker resignation)
    2001-05: 2 of 6
    1997-2001: 0 of 8 (not including one Speaker resignation)
    1992-97: 8 of 8 (100% lost!)
    1987-92: 7 of 10
    1983-87: 4 of 9
    1979-83: 4 of 7
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Real architectural wonder of New Orleans, is that it exist in the first place, like Venice & St Petersburg in middle of a big, bad, freaking swamp.

    Perhaps check out Bayou St John & other canal routes? Book "Bienville's Dilemna" by Campanella goes into great detail combined with equally good detail & analysis.

    And yes, what they used to call the CBD is hideous. Not to City of London standards, but close.

    Re: Lewis & Clark, poor Meriweather blazed the path westward to the Pacific and back, yet fell afoul re: the bookkeeping & report writing.

    IIRC he was on his way to Our Nation's Capital to give an account of his less-than-satisfactory accounting of the great expedition and/or is territorial governorship, when he took his own life at a roadside "stand" (rough inn) on the Natchez Trace. Leastways that's what they said happened and what balance of probablities still suggests.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    Wakefield will likely go Labour on current polling whoever the Tory candidate is.

    I think though the Tories could narrowly hold Tiverton and Honiton if their candidate is a local female
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705

    OT snooker -- the final session has just resumed and Ronnie O'Sullivan is one frame away from his 8th world championship. PBers with an appreciation of sporting history might want to turn on their television or iplayer. And Trump is not completely without a chance.

    7th, not 8th.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    Where is the balance of power in Tory by-election selection? Labour HQ influences the short-list heavily, but final selection is up to the CLP, who tend to be unpredictable. Can Tory HQ decree "It shall be Frost" or do local members have the final say?

    Local members have the final say after CCHQ produce the shortlist
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,504

    OT snooker -- the final session has just resumed and Ronnie O'Sullivan is one frame away from his 8th world championship. PBers with an appreciation of sporting history might want to turn on their television or iplayer. And Trump is not completely without a chance.

    Not a sport.
    Neither is Cricket
    😠 . .
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    Why does New Orleans have such exceptionally ugly office blocks and skyscrapers?

    It is arguably America’s most beautiful city, yet miserably weighed down with these hideous THINGS

    America usually does skyscrapers well. They invented them. Yet the one place they fuck up is the one place which REALLY does not deserve it



    Every American city is stuffed full of hideous buildings. New York has a few iconic skyscrapers but 90% of its real estate is ugly soulless office blocks. The French Quarter in New Orleans is quite charming, mostly because it doesn't look like an American city at all, but the rest of the city is just as ugly as most other US cities. Houston is the most hideous US city I've ever been to, the whole place felt like it was a Taco Bell car park.
    New Orleans is a lot more than just the French quarter. Whole districts outside the FQ are gorgeous. The garden district etc. Even the poorer inner burbs are often unusually lovely.

    Which is why it is a damn shame they built these carbuncles

    NYC does have its share of aesthetic failures but they are disguised by the great mass of towers and the fact they are often REALLY tall so you get a sense of exhilaration from the sheer height. Especially now they have slender supertalls

    I agree on the horror of the strip mall and I am sure you are right about Houston (never been)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    ydoethur said:

    One for Leon and Ishmael:

    An interesting thread on why Russia's nukes *may* not be as much of a threat as people fear:
    https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1520180151992131584

    Basically: nukes cost a heck of a lot to keep in working order, as do delivery systems. And if the Russians are unsure whether their systems work, then they won't use them: as demonstrating they don't work - especially after their conventional military's failures - leaves them wide open to attack. They may think it is better to keep nukes as an unused threat, rather than a used failure.

    It's interesting, but not something I'd want testing...

    Isn't there are a car that's got such downforce you can drive it upside down, but nobody's willing to drive it on a tunnel roof to find out?
    F1 cars (circa 1990-2000) were described as such. I've no idea if that's still true in this era.
    Yes, an F1 car produces 3-4 times its weight in downforce, the laws of physics says it can drive upside-down above about 80mph.

    Adam Savage from Mythbusters said that they did some planning on how to test it, but no-one would lent them a car! You’d likely need to redesign the fuel and oil systems to run upside-down for more than a few seconds.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310
    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Anyway, given my limited interest in whether Starmer once had a beer, I have largely ignored politics for the last few days and instead concentrated on serious gardening.

    Namely -

    - The creation of 2 new beds, one in the front and one in the back garden.
    - Plus the improvement of a third, which is a mixture of a herb and flower bed.
    - Removing all the rubble, stones, old plastic sacks & other rubbish the builders kindly left in the garden. (Why builders think a planting bed is the same as a skip who can say.)
    - 9 x 70 litres of top soil, compost and soil conditioner lifted and spread over the beds.
    - Circa 80 plants planted & watered & God knows how many weeds cleared.

    Hard physical work is very satisfying! If tiring.

    So I treated myself to afternoon tea - as you can see here.


    Very nice. Have been doing some weeding of my own but it's a bit difficult to fit gardening around everything else. Aiming to plant a new rose border by the sunroom with roses that have a strong scent, but haven't got round to that yet.
    Rosa Gertrude Jekyll is an absolute must have. Exquisitely beautiful and fragrant with no downsides whatever.

    I have Mme Alfred Carriere coming up the wall in that photo and lost of other David Austin roses too. As well as 2 old Bourbon roses in one of the new beds: Ferdinand Pichaud and Rosa de Rechts.



  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    kle4 said:

    A question for the combined genius of PB.

    What is the most number of Government seats lost in by-elections in a single Parliamentary term (by which I mean between two general elections in case my terminology is wrong)?

    The glory of wiki gives us this for recent history at least. But there used to be more by-elections in general, so I'd not be surprised if some earlier was worth.

    Looks like the Tories didn't win a by election from 1989 to 1997. 1992-97 is, unsurprisingly, pretty bad, losing all 8 government defences.

    2019-to date: 2 of 8
    2017-19: 1 of 5
    2015-17: 1 of 10
    2010-15: 3 of 21 (and 2 of those were incumbents winning under UKIP banner)
    2005-10: 4 of 14
    2001-05: 2 of 6
    1997-2001: 0 of 17
    1992-97: 8 of 18
    1987-92: 7 of 24
    1983-87: 4 of 31
    1979-83: 4 of 20

    As has been noted previously, there used to be a lot more deaths in office.

    The above is out of total number of by-elections. In terms of government defences, it is as follows for losses
    2019-to date: 2 of 4
    2017-19: 1 of 1
    2015-17: 1 of 3
    2010-15: 3 of 5 (and 2 of those were incumbents winning under UKIP banner), one was a LD defence
    2005-10: 4 of 8 (not including one following Speaker resignation)
    2001-05: 2 of 6
    1997-2001: 0 of 8 (not including one Speaker resignation)
    1992-97: 8 of 8 (100% lost!)
    1987-92: 7 of 10
    1983-87: 4 of 9
    1979-83: 4 of 7
    66-70 looks a contender - 15 government losses.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    edited May 2022

    Real architectural wonder of New Orleans, is that it exist in the first place, like Venice & St Petersburg in middle of a big, bad, freaking swamp.

    Perhaps check out Bayou St John & other canal routes? Book "Bienville's Dilemna" by Campanella goes into great detail combined with equally good detail & analysis.

    And yes, what they used to call the CBD is hideous. Not to City of London standards, but close.

    Re: Lewis & Clark, poor Meriweather blazed the path westward to the Pacific and back, yet fell afoul re: the bookkeeping & report writing.

    IIRC he was on his way to Our Nation's Capital to give an account of his less-than-satisfactory accounting of the great expedition and/or is territorial governorship, when he took his own life at a roadside "stand" (rough inn) on the Natchez Trace. Leastways that's what they said happened and what balance of probablities still suggests.

    Lol. Touché. Nice dig at the City. We really fucked up with the Walkie Talkie and 22 Fenchurch St

    On the other hand you can get vistas like this. From the right angle






    At the same time we have somehow contrived to hide The Gherkin from almost any angle, and that is one of the most marvellously iconic modern buildings in the world. Derrrr
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    New Orleans factoid - Two weeks ago, NO city council formally renamed "Lee Circle" to "Harmony Circle".

    The prominent traffic circle, at eastern end of St Charles Ave (catch street car to Audubon Park here) features tall pillar (think Trafalgar Sq) upon which used to stand a statue of Gen. Robert E Lee (USA > CSA) gazing in general direction of Richmond.

    Statue was removed in 2017.

    I’ve nearly finished my (excellent) oysters at Luke. I have a spare afternoon in Nawlins. What can I do?

    I’ve done the obvious touristy things, from the French Quartet to Basin Street to the Garden District or the cemeteries

    Anything else? I fucked up my flight so I have an extra day
    The Whitney Plantation sounds interesting:

    https://www.whitneyplantation.org/#:~:text=Whitney Plantation is the only,a southern Louisiana sugarcane plantation.

    It is unusual amongst Plantation tours in that it focusses on the slaves, rather than the owners, with the slaves glossed over. It gets very interesting reviews.
    When I lived in Baton Rouge, drive across the Mississippi River, and within five minutes be cruising through sugar cane fields. During harvest season, there would be big trucks transporting the cut cane to nearby sugar refinery. Easy as pie to stop your car, and pick up cane that had just fallen from a truck, cut off an end, and enjoy a sweet treat.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    Leon said:

    It’s like Swindon

    Was it Winston Churchill that said "there are only four cities in America: New York, New Orleans, San Francisco. All the rest are Cinncinnati"?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,150
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    One for Leon and Ishmael:

    An interesting thread on why Russia's nukes *may* not be as much of a threat as people fear:
    https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1520180151992131584

    Basically: nukes cost a heck of a lot to keep in working order, as do delivery systems. And if the Russians are unsure whether their systems work, then they won't use them: as demonstrating they don't work - especially after their conventional military's failures - leaves them wide open to attack. They may think it is better to keep nukes as an unused threat, rather than a used failure.

    It's interesting, but not something I'd want testing...

    Isn't there are a car that's got such downforce you can drive it upside down, but nobody's willing to drive it on a tunnel roof to find out?
    F1 cars (circa 1990-2000) were described as such. I've no idea if that's still true in this era.
    Yes, an F1 car produces 3-4 times its weight in downforce, the laws of physics says it can drive upside-down above about 80mph.

    Adam Savage from Mythbusters said that they did some planning on how to test it, but no-one would lent them a car! You’d likely need to redesign the fuel and oil systems to run upside-down for more than a few seconds.
    Why not use an Formula Battery (whatever it is called) one?

    I call fake on the excuses.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,150
    edited May 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Where is the balance of power in Tory by-election selection? Labour HQ influences the short-list heavily, but final selection is up to the CLP, who tend to be unpredictable. Can Tory HQ decree "It shall be Frost" or do local members have the final say?

    Local members have the final say after CCHQ produce the shortlist
    So CCHQ can nobble the shortlist :smile:

    Will this be impacts by X's (whoever it was) declaring that half of Tory MPs should be women. Was that for the next election?
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    MattW said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    One for Leon and Ishmael:

    An interesting thread on why Russia's nukes *may* not be as much of a threat as people fear:
    https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1520180151992131584

    Basically: nukes cost a heck of a lot to keep in working order, as do delivery systems. And if the Russians are unsure whether their systems work, then they won't use them: as demonstrating they don't work - especially after their conventional military's failures - leaves them wide open to attack. They may think it is better to keep nukes as an unused threat, rather than a used failure.

    It's interesting, but not something I'd want testing...

    Isn't there are a car that's got such downforce you can drive it upside down, but nobody's willing to drive it on a tunnel roof to find out?
    F1 cars (circa 1990-2000) were described as such. I've no idea if that's still true in this era.
    Yes, an F1 car produces 3-4 times its weight in downforce, the laws of physics says it can drive upside-down above about 80mph.

    Adam Savage from Mythbusters said that they did some planning on how to test it, but no-one would lent them a car! You’d likely need to redesign the fuel and oil systems to run upside-down for more than a few seconds.
    Why not use an Formula Battery (whatever it is called) one?

    I call fake on the excuses.
    They won't produce enough downforce, even if they went fast enough. Certainly for the current Gen2 car anyway. But I wonder if you could do the upside down test with, say, an F2 car, which would be a lot cheaper. Not sure what their downforce to weight ratio is...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    edited May 2022
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    New Orleans factoid - Two weeks ago, NO city council formally renamed "Lee Circle" to "Harmony Circle".

    The prominent traffic circle, at eastern end of St Charles Ave (catch street car to Audubon Park here) features tall pillar (think Trafalgar Sq) upon which used to stand a statue of Gen. Robert E Lee (USA > CSA) gazing in general direction of Richmond.

    Statue was removed in 2017.

    I’ve nearly finished my (excellent) oysters at Luke. I have a spare afternoon in Nawlins. What can I do?

    I’ve done the obvious touristy things, from the French Quartet to Basin Street to the Garden District or the cemeteries

    Anything else? I fucked up my flight so I have an extra day
    The Whitney Plantation sounds interesting:

    https://www.whitneyplantation.org/#:~:text=Whitney Plantation is the only,a southern Louisiana sugarcane plantation.

    It is unusual amongst Plantation tours in that it focusses on the slaves, rather than the owners, with the slaves glossed over. It gets very interesting reviews.
    I went to the Whitney last time I was here. Very moving. Right at the end the guide revealed that her great grandfather was a sharecropper who lived in one of the shacks she had just showed us
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    edited May 2022

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    New Orleans factoid - Two weeks ago, NO city council formally renamed "Lee Circle" to "Harmony Circle".

    The prominent traffic circle, at eastern end of St Charles Ave (catch street car to Audubon Park here) features tall pillar (think Trafalgar Sq) upon which used to stand a statue of Gen. Robert E Lee (USA > CSA) gazing in general direction of Richmond.

    Statue was removed in 2017.

    I’ve nearly finished my (excellent) oysters at Luke. I have a spare afternoon in Nawlins. What can I do?

    I’ve done the obvious touristy things, from the French Quartet to Basin Street to the Garden District or the cemeteries

    Anything else? I fucked up my flight so I have an extra day
    The Whitney Plantation sounds interesting:

    https://www.whitneyplantation.org/#:~:text=Whitney Plantation is the only,a southern Louisiana sugarcane plantation.

    It is unusual amongst Plantation tours in that it focusses on the slaves, rather than the owners, with the slaves glossed over. It gets very interesting reviews.
    When I lived in Baton Rouge, drive across the Mississippi River, and within five minutes be cruising through sugar cane fields. During harvest season, there would be big trucks transporting the cut cane to nearby sugar refinery. Easy as pie to stop your car, and pick up cane that had just fallen from a truck, cut off an end, and enjoy a sweet treat.
    I have had freshly cut sugar cane a few times, and it is a pleasant thing to chew. Apparently goes off very quickly, hence on slave plantations during the harvest the crushing and processing went on 24 hours.
This discussion has been closed.